OnPaly 播客：2026年美国中期选举影响与安大略省政经动态

节目开场与本期要点

欢迎大家收听 OnPaly 播客。我是 Steve Pac。

英文原文

Welcome everyone to the OnPaly podcast.

I'm Steve Pac

我是 John Michael McGrath。

英文原文

>> and I'm John Michael McGrath.

今天在播客中，庆祝中期选举结果的不只是美国的民主党人。大多数加拿大人，包括省长 Doug Ford，似乎都对 Donald Trump 受到应有的惩罚感到相当高兴。

英文原文

>> Today on the pod, it's not just Democrats in the United States who are celebrating the results of the midterm elections. Most Canadians, including Premier Doug Ford, seem pretty pleased that Donald Trump is getting his comeuppants.

离安大略省自由党选出新党魁只剩两周时间了。我们本周就在这间演播室举办了最后一场辩论，稍后会向大家介绍现场情况。来自多伦多大学蒙克学院的经济学家 Brian Lewis 也将做客本期节目，深入剖析该省的秋季经济报告，他表示该报告留下了太多未解之谜。而在本期的专栏板块中，我将关注该省垃圾填埋场政策即将迎来的调整。

英文原文

>> Just two weeks to go before Ontario Liberals, choose their new leader. We staged the final debate in this very studio this week, and we'll tell you how it went. Economist Brian Lewis from the U of's Monk School joins the show to take a deeper dive into the province's fall economic statement, which he says leaves too many unanswered questions. And in your column, my column, I'll look at the changes coming to the province's policies around landfills.

我写了一篇关于一位在政界活跃了50年的人物的文章。他在上周的市政选举中落选，但退场时展现出了极高的风度。我们会告诉你他是谁，以及为什么我们认为他值得受到关注。

英文原文

>> And I've got a piece up on a guy who spent 50 years in politics. He lost in last week's municipal elections, but went out with a lot of class. We'll tell you who he is and why we think he deserves some attention.

今天是2026年11月6日，星期五。那么，让我们正式开始吧。

英文原文

>> It's Friday, November 6th, 2026. So, let's get to it.

服装与历史回顾

JMM，先来点秋季经济报告，加拿大预算的甜头，以此开启我们的节目。好了。呃，我们稍后再谈中期选举。所以，我们现在先放一放。先按捺一下我们的……

英文原文

>> JMM, a little fall economic statement, Canadian budget sugar to start our show with. There we go. Uh, we are going to talk about the midterms later. So, we'll hold off on that right now. Hold off on our

对这一结果的欢喜之情。不过，嗯，你今天穿的是什么？

英文原文

>> glee about the results of that. But, um, what are you wearing today?

呃，这件衬衫我以前在播客里穿过。这是“加入反抗军”的衬衫。呃，你知道，图案风格源自反抗军同盟，而且上面还加了一面印有枫叶的加拿大国旗。嗯，我是在欢迎美国选民重返反抗军行列。呃，稍后我们会进一步讨论选举结果，不过，呃，你知道，我一点也不想扫大家的兴，但这让人想起了温斯顿·丘吉尔那句关于美国人在穷尽所有其他选择后最终总会做正确之事的名言。虽然这比我希望的要晚，但我对本周的结果感到非常高兴。

英文原文

>> Uh, so this I've worn this shirt on the pod before. This is the join the resistance shirt. uh you know stylized from the the the Rebel Alliance and also the uh you know topped with a maple leaf Canadian flag. Um I I am welcoming the American electorate uh back into the the resistance. Uh we we'll talk about the election results more in a bit, but uh you know I I I'm not I don't want to rain on the parade at all a little bit, but the the the quote from Winston Churchill about uh Americans will eventually do the right thing after exhausting all other options comes to mind. It's it's uh it's later than I would have liked, but I I am very happy with the results of this week.

我想大多数加拿大人也是如此，呃，你知道，南方邻居恢复理智将是一件极好的事。这让我想起了 Robin Williams 那句妙语：做加拿大人就像住在冰毒实验室楼上的公寓里，你知道的。不管怎么说，过去这几年我们见识了太多。我今天，让我站起来展示给你看。我们在哪儿？找到了。那位就是过去人们常说的董事会主席。他的名字叫 John P. Robarts，他在1961年至1971年间担任安大略省总理——当时的头衔是安大略省总理（prime minister of Ontario）。我今天穿印有他的衣服，呃，其实有两个原因。65年前的这一周，他宣誓就任安大略省第17任总理。所以我们本周迎来了纪念日。如果能够想象的话，他某种程度上就像我们的 JFK。这两个人都在40多岁，二战期间都曾是海军战斗英雄。都是长相英俊的男子。嗯，John F. Kennedy 在1961年1月宣誓就任总统，而 John Roberts 在1961年11月宣誓就任安大略省总理。还有，我该怎么说呢？这……他们离开这个世界的方式也完全相同，

英文原文

>> I think most Canadians are um you know, a return to sanity would be a lovely thing in our neighbor to the south. Reminds me of the great line from Robin Williams. Being a Canadian is like living in an apartment above a meth lab, you know. Anyway, we've seen a lot over the last couple of years. I today, let me stand up here and show you. Where are we? There we are. That is the guy they used to call the chairman of the board. His name was John P. Robarts and he was the prime minister of Ontario from 1961 to 71. The title was prime minister of Ontario. And I'm wearing him today because uh two reasons really. 65 years ago this week, he was sworn in as the 17th prime minister of Ontario. So we have an anniversary this week. He was sort of our JFK if you can imagine. You got two guys in their 40s, both naval war heroes during World War II. Good-looking guys. Um John F. Kennedy was sworn in as president in January of 1961 and John Roberts was sworn in as prime minister of Ontario in November of 1961. And how do I put this? This is this they they both left this world in the same way,

对吧？

英文原文

>> right?

John F. Kennedy 遭到暗杀，头部承受了猎枪射击。John P. Robarts 则死于自杀，他用的是安大略省进步保守党为感谢他多年的贡献而赠送给他的一把猎枪；他曾多次中风，健康状况不佳，当时年仅65岁，他走进了罗斯代尔家中淋浴间的隔间，以同样的方式离开了人世。所以，他们的生命以悲剧收场，而这两段生命在开端时都曾承载着如此巨大的希望与憧憬。总之，就是这样。呃，关于中期选举我们有很多话要聊。我们开始吧？

英文原文

>> John F. Kennedy was assassinated, sustained a shotgun blast to the head. John P. Robart's was lost to suicide and he took a shotgun that was given to him as a gift by the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario to thank him for his years of service and he had sustained a lot of strokes and had bad health and he was only 65 years old and he walked into a shower stall in his home in Rosedale and went out the same way. So tragic end to their lives, lives which began with such hope and promise. Anyway, there we go. Uh, we got a lot to talk about with the midterm. Shall we get to it?

开始吧。

英文原文

>> Let's do that.

美国中期选举结果速览

第一个议题来了。

英文原文

>> Here comes issue one.

一股蓝色浪潮席卷了全美，民主党夺得了国会参众两院的控制权。这是对 Donald Trump 过去两年执政表现的明确控诉。JMM，我们来梳理几个焦点，好吗？好的，来吧，呃，大概是本次选举中呃、呃最引人注目的选战之一：Abdul Elsad 赢得了密歇根州的参议院席位。他成为了第一位当选美国参议员的穆斯林。呃，这是一场竞争极其激烈的选战，今年早些时候在初选中被 Elsa 击败的那位民主党人，在投票前几天竟然公开背书了共和党挑战者。嗯……

英文原文

>> A blue tidal wave has swept across the United States with the Democrats taking control of both houses of Congress. A clear indictment of Donald Trump's time in office over the last two years. Let us go through some of the highlights, shall we, JMM? Yes, let's uh so uh probably one of the most uh uh attention-grabbing races uh in uh this election. Abdul Elsad won uh the Senate seat in Michigan. He becomes the first Muslim to be elected to the US Senate. Uh a highly contested uh race where the Democrat that Elsa uh beat in the primary earlier this year uh endorsed the Republican challenger just days before the vote. um

没起作用。

英文原文

>> didn't work.

这并没有改变结果，或者说，至少它没有导致共和党人获胜。嗯，不过，是的，我有点不知道该怎么形容，只能说密歇根州的场面极其震撼。嗯，不过你知道，我们先从这里开始，当然是因为密歇根州汽车行业的重要性，以及它与安大略省汽车行业的紧密关联。呃，接着我认为单就纯粹的政治冲击力而言，本周德克萨斯州发生的事情令人震惊。呃，我是说，我们在天哪大概六到八周前讨论过这个，呃，当时我提到了德克萨斯州可能成为竞争州，而你当时非常正确地说，你知道，别操之过急，一代又一代的民主党人都曾以为德克萨斯州可以一争高下，结果每次都心碎收场。好吧，今年可不一样了。呃，德克萨斯州。呃，我是说，James Terico 将成为代表德克萨斯州的民主党参议员，而且民主党在德克萨斯州的胜利还延伸到了下游投票。呃，州长，我认为基本上所有主要的州级公职现在都归民主党人了，而且民主党人还翻转了州议会其中一个院。

英文原文

>> It did not change the outcome or or at least it did not uh uh did not result in the Republican winning. Um but uh yeah, I I I'm kind of at a loss for words of how to describe this except to say absolute scenes in Michigan. Um but you know, we we we start off here because of of course of the significance of Michigan's auto sector and its relations uh with the auto sector here in Ontario. Uh then I think in terms of pure political impact, what happened in Texas this week is stunning. Uh I mean we we talked about this a few gosh like whatever six eight weeks ago uh when I I I mentioned Texas being potentially in play and you quite correctly said like you know hold your horses like generations of Democrats have thought that Texas would be in play and it broke their heart every time. Well not this year. uh Texas. Uh I mean, so James Terico will be the uh Democratic senator from the state of Texas, but the Democratic victories in Texas go uh down ballot as well. Uh the governor, I think basically all of the major statewide offices uh are Democrats and the Democrats flipped the uh one of the chambers of the state legislature.

州级共和党官员只剩下一位了，那就是参议员 Ted Cruz，他上次参选时也是险胜。Telerico 取得了一场大胜。是的。

英文原文

>> There's one statewide Republican left, and that's Senator Ted Cruz, who barely won the last time he ran. Telerico had a big victory. Yes.

赢了100多万票。

英文原文

>> won by more than a million votes.

是的。令人震惊。绝对令人震惊。而且，我们不应该在这上面花太多时间，因为我们还有很多内容要讲，但这带来的长期影响绝对是极其深远的。嗯，在密西西比州，在我们录制这期节目时，结果仍然势均力敌、难以判定，但是呃 Scott Co 可能会成为……他目前以非常微弱的优势领先。呃，他可能会成为自1989年以来来自密西西比州的第一位民主党参议员，也是自内战后重建时期以来密西西比州的第一位黑人参议员。呃，在佐治亚州，Kesha Lance Bottoms 成为了美国有史以来第一位当选州长的黑人女性。我能在这里暂停一下吗？

英文原文

>> Yes. Shocking. Absolutely shocking. And and the we shouldn't like spend too much time on this because we got a lot to go through, but like the the long-term effects of this are are going to be absolutely massive. Um in Mississippi, still too close to call as we uh record this, but uh Scott Co could be uh the he is currently leading by a very narrow margin. uh he could be the first uh Democratic senator from the state of Mississippi since 1989 and the first black senator from Mississippi since reconstruction after the Civil War. Uh in Georgia, Kesha Lance Bottoms becomes the first black woman ever to be elected governor in the US. Can I just pause on that?

可以。

英文原文

>> Yes.

想一想这一点。现在是2026年了。

英文原文

>> Think about that for a second. It's 2026.

确实。

英文原文

>> Yes.

那个国家已经存在了250年。

英文原文

>> That country's been alive for 250 years.

确实。

英文原文

>> Yes.

美利坚合众国花了整整250年才选出第一位黑人女性州长。我觉得这真令人震惊。不过……

英文原文

>> It took 250 years to elect the first black female governor in the United States of America. I find that that's shocking. But

嗯，你知道，这反映出……我的意思是，我们可以说，是的，美国有250年的历史，但在这段历史的大部分时间里，Kisha Lance Bottoms 连投票资格都不会拥有。确实如此。而且这反映了整体上美国、特别是佐治亚州不断变化的人口结构和政治格局。呃，你知道，很多……我的意思是，我认为本次选举宏观层面的核心特征之一，就是民主党在美国南部各州的竞争力大大增强，其程度在坦率地讲即使只是两三个选举周期之前都会令人震惊……

英文原文

>> well, you know, it reflects I mean we can say yes, the United States is 250 years old, but Kisha Lance Bottoms would not have been eligible to vote for uh much of that history. Absolutely. And uh it it reflects uh the the changing demographics and changing politics of uh the United States broadly, Georgia specifically. uh you know a lot I mean that is I think one of the meta stories of this election is that the Democrats have become uh much more competitive in southern US states uh in ways that would have been uh frankly shocking um maybe even just you know two or three election cycles ago

也许甚至是两三个月之前，你知道的。

英文原文

>> maybe two or three months ago you know

是的，这又是另一个问题了，比如当不是在无论最终结果是净胜14个百分点（D+14）还是多少的浪潮年选举中时，这些胜利能在多大程度上持续下去。嗯，但继续看这里的胜选名单，呃，新罕布什尔州的 Chris Papas 成为有史以来第一位当选美国参议员的公开同性恋身份男性。呃，民主党人 Deb Holland 赢得了新墨西哥州州长职位。她成为美国有史以来第一位女性原住民州长。我认为这几乎已成定局，但仍有一些选战尚待最终宣布结果。不过，呃，一旦计票完成，纽约州的 Hakee Jeff 将成为有史以来第一位黑人众议院议长。所以，这是一连串极其重要的历史性胜利。

英文原文

>> yes and and that's another question like how how uh sustainable these victories will be when it's not a whatever it ended up being D plus14 waveyear election um But to keep going down the list of wins here, uh Chris Papas in New Hampshire becomes the first openly gay man ever to be elected to the US Senate. Uh Democrat Deb Holland won the governorship in New Mexico. She becomes the first ever female indigenous governor in the United States. And I think this is all but certain, but there are still some races left to call. But uh once the votes are counted, Hakee Jeff of New York uh will be the first ever black speaker of the House of Representatives. So, a a a string of really important historic victories.

我们不想在这里幸灾乐祸。我是说，我们不是那种爱幸灾乐祸的人，但我认为根据我们看到的民意调查结果，可以客观地说……

英文原文

>> We don't want to gloat here. I mean, we're not in the business of gloating, but I think it's fair to say based on public opinion polling that we have seen.

是的。

英文原文

>> Yes.

绝大多数加拿大人一直都希望 Donald Trump……

英文原文

>> The vast vast majority of Canadians have been hoping that Donald Trump

选举结果与特朗普的责任

……会遭到报应，而他似乎确实遭到了报应。众所周知，就在选举日前几天，他说自己非常担心选票上没有他的名字，因此担心共和党忠实选民可能没有干劲出来支持整张选票。他说，你们知道的，“就当选票上有我好了”。

英文原文

was get would get his comeuppance and he appears to have done so. He he kind of famously said just a few days before election day, you know, he's very worried about the fact that he's not on the ballot and therefore he's worried that there won't be the energy among the Republican faithful to come out and support the ticket. And he said, you know, just pretend I'm on the ballot.

哎，他们确实这么做了。是的，

英文原文

>> Well, they did. Yeah,

他们完全照做了。他如愿以偿了。就是这样。而预测到这一结果的人之一，当然就是安大略省省长。那我们来听听他的一点反应吧。道格·福特（Doug Ford）。

英文原文

>> they absolutely did. He got his wish. There you go. And one of the people predicting this result was, of course, the premier of Ontario. So, let's hear a little bit of his reaction. Doug Ford.

“美国人民发声了，我、我真是再高兴不过了。他们想怪谁都可以，但特朗普总统必须照照镜子，对昨晚的结果承担责任……”

英文原文

>> The American people spoke and uh I I couldn't be happier. They can blame everyone they want, but President Trump has to look in the mirror, take responsibility for the the uh results of last night,

当然，他才不会这么做。

英文原文

>> which of course he wouldn't do.

不，他已经在推卸任何责任了，说什么如果他在选票上，结果当然就会不一样。但我想说的是，关于这次选举有太多的故事了。你知道，当这么大的事情发生时，绝不仅仅是一件事导致的，而是几十种可能的因素。造成共和党人惨败的其中一个原因，就是唐纳德·特朗普在候选人素质方面眼光极差。他在初选中力推的许多人——包括得克萨斯州和南卡罗来纳州等地的候选人——结果证明都是极其糟糕的候选人。挑选他们主要是因为他们对唐纳德·特朗普的忠诚。要是他没有横加干预，结果或许——得克萨斯州可能不行，因为那里的差距实在太大了——但在南卡罗来纳州，共和党人绝对完全是有可能赢的。这场失利总统真的必须承担，但我猜他不会承担。

英文原文

>> No, he's already disavowing any responsibility, saying that if if he'd been on the ballot, of course, the the results would have been different. But I I do I want to say I mean, one of the sto there are so many stories about this election. you know, when something this big happens, it's never just one thing that happens. It's it's, you know, dozens of possible things. One of the things that was the story of these defeats for the Republicans was that Donald Trump has a terrible eye for candidate equality and a lot of the people who he, you know, pushed forward through primaries, uh, including very much the candidates in like Texas and South Carolina. Um the these people turned out to be absolutely terrible candidates uh who were picked mainly because of their loyalty to Donald Trump and had he not put his thumb on the scales result probably maybe not in Texas because the results there really were so huge but in South Carolina that was absolutely still a winnable race for Republicans and that that's a loss that the president really needs to wear but I suspect he will not.

南方选情逆转与历史对比

这确实不可思议。我是说，周二晚上你和我大概都熬夜到很晚看开票结果。但你知道，我比你稍微年长一些，也许比你年长很多。自我还是个孩子起——就是林登·约翰逊（Lyndon Johnson）当总统的时候——

英文原文

>> It it really is incredible. I mean, you and I were probably both up way too late Tuesday night watching The Returns, but you know, I'm a little older than you, maybe a lot older than you. And, you know, it has been since I was a kid, you know, when Lyndon Johnson was the president. Yes.

是他“丢掉”了南方。

英文原文

>> Who lo quote unquote lost the South.

是的。

英文原文

>> Yes.

丢了好几代人。如今看到像堪萨斯州、艾奥瓦州……

英文原文

>> Um for for generations. And to see states like Kansas, Iowa,

也许还有密西西比州，

英文原文

>> maybe Mississippi,

是啊。

英文原文

>> Yeah.

得克萨斯州，对，南卡罗来纳州，把参议院里的共和党人赶下台，

英文原文

>> Texas Yeah. South Carolina, throw out the Republicans in the Senate. Yes. And

改选民主党人进去。就在两三个月前，我们谁也不可能预料到这种局面。对此我深信不疑。

英文原文

>> elect Democrats in there instead. That is nothing any of us had on our bingo cards as recently as two or three months ago. I'm convinced of it.

是啊。不，这绝对是一个令人震惊的结果。上一次民主党在南方拥有稳固席位时，它基本上还是一个种族隔离主义者的政党。这不仅是一次重要的结果，不仅是因为对唐纳德·特朗普的唾弃——显然，我们加拿大人对此感到挺开心，是的，也许我们还会稍稍幸灾乐祸一下——但你知道，我认为对大多数美国选民来说，这次选举首要考虑的并不是加拿大。不过，这确实是一个绝对具有历史意义的影响。有人问福特，鉴于新一届民主党国会中包含在政治立场上大幅左倾于福特本人的人士，比如阿卜杜勒·赛义德（Abdul El-Sayed），对吧？他能否与这届新国会合作？值得称赞的是，福特说他可以与任何人合作，阿卜杜勒·赛义德关心密歇根州的就业、汽车行业的就业，正如道格·福特一样。我们现在是在试图报道仍在发展中的事情，事态还在持续变化中。但阿卜杜勒本周在一次采访中已经表示，当被问及他对新国会的优先事项是什么时，他列出了三项。正如他所说，结束针对加拿大的战争、结束特朗普对加拿大的战争在他的三项清单中排在第二位，仅次于重申国会的战争权力并阻止伊朗的战争。所以，我不想做任何预测，现在想要明确了解民主党将要怎么做真的还为时过早。但我很看好这个风向标。我认为民主党是在认真对待这件事情，而且我认为对加拿大人来说，这不仅是看到特朗普被唾弃的一点点幸灾乐祸。我认为我们的处境实际上确实变得更稳固了一些。

英文原文

>> Yeah. No, it's it's absolutely uh uh astonishing result. Um you know, the last time the Democrats had solid seats in the South, it was still basically a party of segregationists. And this is uh an important result not just because of the uh repudiation of Donald Trump which obviously you know we here in Canada are enjoying and yeah maybe we will gloat a little um but you know this election was not about Canada in you know top of mind uh for most American voters I think but again like an absolutely historic effect. Ford was asked, can you work with this new Democratic Congress given that it includes, you know, people substantially to the left of Ford's own politics like Abdul Seed, right? Um, and uh, you know, Ford to his credit says, you know, like he he can work with anybody, you know, Abdul sayed is is interested in Michigan jobs, uh, you know, in the auto sector just as much as Doug Ford is. Um and you know uh like this is we're trying to cover stuff that is like still in motion. Things are still happening. Um but you know Abdul said for his part said in an interview uh already this week that you know he he was asked you know what his priorities are for the new Congress and and he listed three and you know as he put it ending the war on Canada ending Trump's war on Canada was number two in his uh three three item list only coming only after reasserting Congress's war powers and stopping the war uh in Iran. So, you know, I I I don't want to make any predictions like it really is uh uh still too early to to have any clear sense of of what the Democrats are going to do. But I like that as an indicator. I I I think the Democrats uh are taking this seriously and I think uh Canadians it's not just a little bit of like glee from watching Trump being repudiated. I think we are in fact in a bit more solid position.

加拿大对美关系与国会新格局

我们一直不喜欢被称为“第51个州”。我们从来都不喜欢。不管你的党派立场是什么。我想我们不喜欢我们的总理被美国总统称为“州长”。是的。所有这些事情让加拿大公众对这位美国总统情绪相当糟糕。因此显而易见的问题是，局势如今已经发生了改变。

英文原文

>> We have not enjoyed being referred to as the 51st state. We have not. It doesn't matter what your partisan affiliation is. I don't think we like our prime ministers being referred to as governor. Yeah. By the president of the United States. Uh all of that stuff has put the Canadian public in a pretty foul mood as it relates to this president of the United States. So the obvious question is the earth has now moved.

是的。

英文原文

>> Yes.

唐纳德·特朗普不再是那个不仅“掌控”最高法院、参议院、众议院和行政部门的人了，他现在可以说是孤立无援了。他面对的是两院国会，

英文原文

>> Donald Trump is not the guy who not only has control quote unquote of the Supreme Court and the Senate and the House of Representatives and the executive branch, he's now kind of on his own. He's got two houses of Congress who are,

就算不说是反对他，也对他今后可能想做的任何事情都怀有公开的敌意。

英文原文

>> you know, if not opposed to him, actively hostile to anything that he may want to do going forward.

而且他们嗅到了血腥味。

英文原文

>> And they smell blood in the water.

确实如此，水里已经撒了鱼饵。而美国最高法院——其中许多成员是由他任命的——也开始不时表现出比他所希望的更多的独立性。

英文原文

>> They do. And there's chum in the water. And the Supreme Court of the United States, many of whose members he has appointed, is starting on from time to time shows a little more independence from the president than he would like.

你认为这给未来几年预示了什么？好吧，我不想在这个时候扫兴，因为我和大家一样正沉浸在这种氛围中。但是，是的，除非发生其他外部变故，唐纳德·特朗普将继续担任总统直到2029年1月。本周选出的这届国会甚至要到2027年1月才会就职。所以，在最字面的意义上，周二晚上的结果并没有带来任何根本性的改变。但是，政治并不总是关乎字面事实上的变化。有时，这种氛围比你想象的更重要。我认为显而易见的事实是，唐纳德·特朗普今天的实力比周二早上更弱了。就像我之前说的，我认为民主党会走向哪个方向还存在一定的不确定性。我认为在某些人中存在一定的怀疑态度，尤其是在加拿大人中间——对加拿大征收的部分关税确实在特朗普之前就存在了，它们最早是由乔·拜登实施的，对吧？因此，存在一种怀疑，认为光是选出民主党人并不会大幅改变美国政府的经济政策。但至少有一些民主党人——比如我提到的阿卜杜勒·赛义德，就说过我们必须结束与加拿大的贸易战。与此同时，其他人竞选时明确支持关税。我们将不得不看看这最终会如何解决。我之前在这个播客中说过，我认为民主党的利益与加拿大的利益是一致的，我们只需要确保民主党人也明白这一点。

英文原文

>> What does that augure for the next couple of years, do you think? Well, so you know, I I I do not want to harsh the vibes right now because I am enjoying the vibes as much as anyone. Uh but uh yes, so Donald Trump will uh remain president barring any other external activity until January of 2029. Uh the Congress that was elected this week will not even be seated until January of 2027. So, you know, in the in the most literal sense, you know, nothing fundamentally has changed uh from the results of Tuesday night. Um but politics is not always about literal factual uh changes. Sometimes uh you know sometimes the vibes matter more than you think. And I think it is just obviously true that Donald Trump is weaker today than he was Tuesday morning. Um you know as I said earlier you know I think there's some ambiguity about which way the Democrats go. I think there's there's a certain skepticism among certainly among Canadians who who you know like some of the tariffs that have been applied to Canada uh do predate Trump. They they were first applied by Joe Biden, right? And so there's a certain skepticism that uh you know simply electing Democrats is going to uh massively change the the economic policies of the US government. But at least some Democrats, I mentioned Abdul Sed saying like we have to end the trade war with Canada. Um, at the same time, others have uh run explicitly in favor of tariffs. We're going to have to see how that uh resolves. Um, I I do I have said before on this podcast that I think that the interests of the Democratic Party coincide with Canada's and we just sort of need to make sure that the Democrats understand that, too.

特朗普与映池演讲

我一直在绞尽脑汁，想找点关于特朗普最近表现的积极评价。这很难。我必须承认，当你向你的基本盘做最后的呼吁，要求他们在中期选举中出来支持你的党派，因为你想保住国会两院；而你做这番呼吁的最后一站是在华盛顿特区的倒影池，向大家展示你在修复此前存在的破坏方面取得了多大的进展。

英文原文

>> I've been trying to rack my brains to think of something positive to say about the way Trump has handled himself lately. It's difficult. I must confess that when you are making the final pitch to your base that they need to come out and support your party in the midterm elections because you want to hang on to both houses of Congress. And the last place you make that pitch is at the reflecting pool in Washington DC to show everybody how much progress you've made on fixing the damage that had been in place before.

我是说，说到他被指责为一个自恋狂。是的。

英文原文

I mean, you want to talk about he he's accused of being a narcissist. Yes.

在希腊神话中，那喀索斯不就是看着倒影池，目光无法从自己的倒影上移开吗？我是说，当时的唐纳德·特朗普活脱脱就是那副模样。

英文原文

>> And wasn't it in Greek mythology, Narcissus was looking in the reflecting pool, could not take his eyes off his image. I mean, that's Donald Trump right then and there.

先贤的智慧跨越时代对我们说话。

英文原文

>> The wisdom of the ancients speaks to us through the ages.

但有件事我不得不佩服他，JMM。选举结束后，大概在周二晚上午夜12点左右，我正在看福克斯新闻。我喜欢各台换着看，全都了解一下。

英文原文

>> But I will give him this, JMM. After the election was over, I was watching Fox at about 12 midnight, I think, Tuesday night. I like to flip around and catch them all.

是的。

英文原文

>> Yeah.

唐纳德·特朗普当时正接受福克斯新闻主播的电话采访，他们问他：“你……

英文原文

>> Donald Trump was giving a telephone interview to the anchors on Fox News and they asked him, "Do you

……接受选举结果吗？”他说：“是的。”

英文原文

accept the results of the election?" And he said, "Yes."

是的。这次可没有搞鬼。希望不会再出现像我们见过的国会山未遂暴乱。是的。

英文原文

>> Yes. No bunky business this time. Hopefully no attempted insurrections on Capitol Hill as we saw. Yes.

嗯，管它是六年前还是多久。所以这是个好迹象。说“祝贺你，总统先生，我们钦佩你接受了显而易见的事实”，这实在没什么好夸耀的。

英文原文

>> Um whatever it was six years ago. So that's a good sign. It's fairly thin gr to say congratulations, Mr. President. We admire the fact that you accepted the obvious.

是的。

英文原文

>> Yes.

但这就是我们目前生活的世界。

英文原文

>> But that's the world we live in right now.

是的。他——他算是跨过了也许是最低的门槛，但他——他确实做到了。他跨过了这道门槛。

英文原文

>> Yes. He he has managed to clear maybe the lowest possible bar, but he he has managed to clear it. He has cleared it.

嗯，我……我只是想补充一点。我是说，你提到了倒影池演讲。我是说，真正显得脱离现实的是，在这样一场选举中——经济承受能力几乎是所有单一议题中最关键的选举议题，你知道，人人都在谈论承受能力、承受能力、承受能力。

英文原文

>> Um I I I just want to add to this. I mean, you mentioned the reflecting pool speech. I mean, what was truly sort of detached from reality like in an election that has as much as any single item has been like the election issue, you know, everybody's talking about affordability, affordability, affordability.

显而易见，总统对目前汽油和柴油的高昂成本负有一定责任。嗯，但你知道，你仍有可以选择传达的讯息。而选举临近结束时，却在谈论你在华盛顿特区为自己的荣耀建造的所有纪念碑，这简直是其中之一。这简直就像，你知道，呃，呃，大革命前夕的法国波旁王室。真的就是这样。

英文原文

>> Obviously, like the president bears some responsibility for the high cost of gasoline and diesel right now. Um, but you know, there are still messages you could try and choose. And to end the election talking about all of the monuments you are building to your own glory in DC, it was just one of it. It's almost like, you know, uh, uh, the the the French bourbons right before the revolution. It really is.

尼禄，尼禄，呃，在罗马大火时还在拉琴。你知道，你肯定能感觉到那种氛围。但我想，我们暂且把话题拉回身边片刻。显然，呃，在竞选行将结束的日子里，唐纳德·特朗普有点在试探性地放出风声，说与加拿大即将达成一项迫在眉睫的贸易协定。

英文原文

>> Nero Nero uh, fiddling while Rome burns. You know, you definitely had that sense about it. But I guess let's just bring it home for a second here. Obviously, uh, in the dying days of the campaign, Donald Trump was sort of teasing the notion that there is an imminent trade deal with Canada on the horizon.

美加贸易谈判与国会新格局

我不知道这是否纯属废话，仅仅是因为他想保住一些边境州不落入民主党之手；但——但现在民主党掌控了国会两院，我不知道，这是否会对那些谈判产生某种影响？这——这是个着实困难的问题，因为你知道，一方面，关税正在造成切实的经济伤害，你可以想见卡尼——卡尼总理将面临呃巨大的压力去达成协议，正如今年早些时候他也曾面临去达成协议并直接接受一份糟糕协议的压力一样。呃，卡尼当然在今年早些时候选择呃无视了那些声音，拂袖离席。而坦率地说，我认为后来的事态发展证明了那一举措的明智。嗯，但那些压力依然存在。呃，会有商业团体告诉总理，你知道，我们可以应付较小幅度的关税，但你知道，我们需要尽快看到某种进展。与此同时，既然已经等到了十一月，也许自有其明智之处。你会不会再多等几周，等到一月份，度过圣诞节，让新一届国会就职，看看能否与民主党主导的国会达成更好的协议？而且你知道，重复一下我曾在本播客以及在 tvo.org 撰文谈过的话，唐纳德·特朗普签下的协议是我们无法信任的。那是卡尼最初离席谈判的理由——

英文原文

>> I don't know if that was complete garbage just because he wanted to save some border states from going to the Democrats, but but now with Democrats in charge of both houses of Congress, I don't know. Does that have an impact one way or the other on those talks? It's it's a genuinely difficult question because you know on the one hand you know tariffs are causing real economic harm and you can imagine that Carney, Prime Minister Carney is going to be under uh serious pressure to uh make a deal even as there was pressure on him to make a deal earlier this year and just accept a a bad deal. Uh Carne of course chose to uh ignore those voices uh earlier this year and walk away from the table. And I think frankly events have uh proven the wisdom of that. Um but those pressures are still there. Uh there will be business groups telling the prime minister, you know, we can deal with with smaller tariffs, but you know, we need to see some kind of movement quickly. And at the same time, there might be some wisdom having already waited until November. Do you just wait a few weeks more until January, get through Christmas, get the new Congress seated, and see if you can cut a better deal with a Democratic Congress? And you know, to to to repeat something I said uh both on this podcast and and in writing at at tvO.org, uh Donald Trump cannot sign an agreement that we can trust. That was Carney's original justification for for walking away from the table

用铅笔签的。他说，

英文原文

>> in pencil. He said,

是的，用铅笔签的，而不是——

英文原文

>> yes, in pencil and not

一份用铅笔签署的协议。

英文原文

>> an agreement signed in pencil.

民主党国会可以签署一份我们能够信任的协议。他们真的可以让它成为法律。嗯，因此我——我不认为这就结案了，但这——这是我会给出的论据，呃，支持确实等到一月份的最佳理由。显而易见，总理有许多不同的顾问，我敢肯定能从许多不同的渠道获得建议。呃，但——但那是我会给出的主张等待的论据。

英文原文

>> The the the Democratic Congress can sign an agreement that we can trust. They can literally make it law. Um, and so I I don't think that's the end of the argument, but that is the the the argument I would make uh the best case for in fact waiting until January. Obviously, the prime minister has many different advisers getting advice, I'm sure, from many different corners. Uh but but uh that would be the argument I would make for for waiting.

你知道，这很有趣，如果你回顾过去……唐纳德·特朗普最初是什么时候？2016 年。他赢得了他的第一任总统大选。2016 年。因此十年来，他一直拥有——这真是相当，我认为——我是说这在我有生之年是前所未有的。他牢牢控制了——是的。

英文原文

>> You know, it's interesting that if you look back at the Republican party over the last when did Donald Trump first became 2016. He won his first election for president. 2016. So for 10 years he has had it's really quite I think it's I mean it's unprecedented in my lifetime. He has had a hammerlock Yeah.

控制了共和党。我是说，99% 的共和党人都投票支持特朗普。

英文原文

>> on the Republican party. I mean 99% of Republicans have voted for Trump.

是的。

英文原文

>> Yes.

嗯，他在初选推举什么候选人方面拥有重大影响力。每当他犯了错，他只要强迫大家紧密团结，他们就照办。

英文原文

>> Um he has had significant impact on what candidates get chosen in the primaries. Anytime he's made mistakes, he just forces people to close ranks and they do.

而且没有人——你知道那句表达，你知道谁有胆量对当权者直言不讳？没有人。那届政府里没有人，呃，那个党内没有人敢挑战他，生怕他身后有基本盘支持，而他们自己会承受政治代价，而不是总统。我现在好奇——

英文原文

>> And nobody, you know the expression, you know who's got the guts to speak truth to power? Nobody. Nobody in that administration uh nobody in that party has dared to take him on for fear that he had the base with him and they would suffer politically as opposed to the president. I wonder now

如今人人都知道这个党遭遇惨败是因为总统，并非不管总统如何，而是因为总统。我好奇我们最终是否会开始看到共和党内有人有胆量告诉皇帝，你没穿衣服。

英文原文

>> now that everybody knows that this party took a shellacking because of the president not in spite of but because of the president. I wonder if finally we will start to see some people in the Republican party have the guts to tell the emperor you're wearing no clothes.

一个始终如一的模式是，呃，至少有些共和党政客在留意退路时，确实找到了勇气，对吧？当他们宣布退休或者随便什么的时候。于是——

英文原文

>> One of the consistent patterns has been that uh at least some Republican politicians uh do find their courage when they've got their eyes out uh on the exits, right? When they've announced their retirement or or whatever. And so

接着他们就勇敢起来了。

英文原文

>> then they get brave.

是的。没错。呃，当他们不再需要面对共和党初选选民的时候，对吧？嗯，在我们即将进入的跛鸭期会议中有一批共和党人。嗯，我一直觉得这是美国政府的一个奇特之处：大选之后，老国会还会延续几个月，因此我们有了这个跛鸭期会议。嗯，有一批共和党众议员和参议员正面临着一月份失业，呃，至少他们当中的一部分人之所以要失业，恰恰是因为唐纳德·特朗普背书了他们在初选中的挑战者。因此，特别是在参议院，我——我非常好奇想看看跛鸭期会议中会发生什么，是否呃有些共和党人会与特朗普决裂，以及，你知道，在哪些议题上他们可能会突然重新找回骨气。嗯，你知道，即使在这届新国会宣誓就职之后，单凭他们自己的人数也不足以推翻总统否决，对吧？呃，而特朗普已经暗示会直接否决民主党所做的一切事情。但是，就像美国政府运转其实确实需要钱，而拨出那笔款项的是国会。所以至少会有一些法案是唐纳德·特朗普不得不签署、或者至少不得不允许其成为法律的。嗯，而且我想关于这一点我最后要说的是，嗯，事态已经向我们表明，呃，唐纳德·特朗普并不是特别忠诚于共和党这样一个组织或体制。他主要忠诚于唐纳德·特朗普。如果民主党开始通过受欢迎的呃举措、受欢迎的立法，你知道，他们这么做的一个原因可能是试图迫使唐纳德·特朗普否决在其他方面广受赞誉的提案，并为下一个选举周期做好准备，届时他们当然希望能赢得白宫，甚至扩大他们在众议院和参议院的优势。但情况可能会变怪，对吧？比如，如果民主党通过受欢迎的法案，其中至少有一部分，你可以想见唐纳德·特朗普会签署，因为他也喜欢做受欢迎的事情，呃，而且再说一次，他并不关心共和党的命运——

英文原文

>> Yes. Exactly. Uh when they no longer have to face a Republican primary electorate, right? Um there are a bunch of Republicans in the lame duck session that we're about to go into. Um, I always find this the the odd bit of American government where after the election, the old Congress persists for a few months and so we get this lame duck session. Um, there are a bunch of Republican Congress people and senators who are looking at unemployment uh in January and uh at least some of them are people who are going to be unemployed precisely because Donald Trump endorsed their primary challengers. And so, particularly in the Senate, I am I'm very curious to see what will happen in in the lame duck session, whether uh some Republicans are going to break with Trump and uh you know, what issues they might suddenly discover their spines again. Um you know, even after this new Congress is sworn in, they are not going to have the numbers on their own to override a presidential veto, right? Uh and and Trump has already alluded to simply vetoing absolutely everything that the Democrats do. But like the US government actually does need like money to run and it's Congress that appropriates that money. So there is going to be uh some measures at least that Donald Trump is going to have to sign or at least allow to become law. Um and also I guess the last thing I will say on this is um events have shown us uh Donald Trump is not particularly loyal to the Republican party as an organization or an institution. He is loyal primarily to Donald Trump. And if the Democrats start passing uh popular uh measures, popular legislation, you know, one reason they might do that is to try and force Donald Trump to veto otherwise popular measures and and prepare themselves for the the next election cycle where of course they will hope to take the White House and and even expand their margins in the House and Senate. But things could get weird, right? like if if the Democrats pass popular measures at least some of them you could imagine Donald Trump signing them because he also likes to do popular things u and and again he does not care about the fortunes of the Republican party

他不是真正的共和党人，正因如此。

英文原文

>> he's not a real Republican that's why

没错，所以是的，嗯，最重要的是，正如过去八年极其怪异一样，我预计接下来的两年呃至少也有很多变怪的可能。

英文原文

>> right so yeah um more than anything as much as the last eight years have been extremely weird the next two I expect will also have uh at least a lot of potential for weirdness

我不想听起来显得陈腐，但这算是当下地球上最精彩的演出了，我是说，它值得一看。

不管怎么说，中期选举已经尘埃落定，历史正在书写。我们继续讨论第二个议题。

安大略省自由党党魁辩论

本周三，TVO 就在这个演播室主办了安大略省自由党党魁候选人的终场辩论。纳夫迪普·贝恩斯（Navdeep Bains）、斯蒂芬妮·鲍曼（Stephanie Bowman）、李·费尔克拉夫（Lee Fairclough）以及迪伦·米兰达（Dylan Miranda）是这几位候选人。某个家伙，某个叫史蒂夫·帕金（Steve Paikin）的家伙主持了这场辩论。JM，我们暂且把平庸的主持问题抛在一边，嗯，当晚哪些候选人给自身增了光？

英文原文

>> I don't want to sound trit but it's kind of the greatest show on earth right now I mean it's worth watching

Anyways, midterms come and gone, history in the making. Let's move on to issue two.

On Wednesday of this week, TVO hosted the final debate of the Ontario Liberal leadership hopefuls here in this studio. Nav Deep Baines, Stephanie Bowman, Lee Faircluff, and Dylan Miranda are the candidates. Some guy, some guy named Steve Pacin moderated the thing. JM Let's leave the mediocre moderating issue aside for the moment. um which candidates helped themselves that night.

嗯，我确实想说，相对于我们在这场之前已经看过的三场辩论，嗯，我并不是想呃呃吹捧我的雇主或者呃吹捧我的搭档主持，呃，但我确实认为这是几场辩论中最好的一场，我不知道这是否是因为什么呃呃神奇的魔法——

英文原文

>> Well, I do want to say relative to we've now watched what three prior debates before this one. Um I not to uh uh puff up my employer or uh even my co-host. Uh but I did think this was the best of the debates and I don't know whether that was any uh uh magic pixie

形式。

英文原文

>> format.

是的。

英文原文

>> Yes.

形式。说真的，我认为这起了极大的作用。

英文原文

>> Format. Honest to goodness, I think that had so much to do with it.

不，我也这么觉得。而且我确实

英文原文

>> No, and I think it did. And I do

候选人在终场辩论中的表现与圆桌形式

我认为，在投票开始前的最后一场辩论中，大家全力以赴是完全可以理解的。而且我真心觉得，候选人们的表现确实非常出色。我很喜欢你提的那个问题，也就是让他们说出自己的弱点，比如纳夫迪普·贝恩斯（Nad Baines）很坦诚地谈到，在离开政坛一段时间后重新回归政界有多不容易，必须……

英文原文

think also uh that you know it would be entirely understandable if everybody brought their agame for the last debate before voting starts. Um and and I I do genuinely think that uh the candidates really did acquit themselves well. Um I uh I I I liked your question about uh you know asking them uh to to name their own weaknesses and um you know uh Nad Baines being honest about having to like how difficult it is to get back into politics after you've been out of political life for a while and

摆脱生疏状态。

英文原文

>> shake the rust off.

是的。而且我想，你知道，我以前也谈过这一点，但我真的认为人们低估了政治在多大程度上其实是一项需要人们不断练习并熟能生巧的技能。是的，总的来说，候选人们都表现得非常好，而且我认为相比我们见过的其他一些形式，这是一场非常充满活力的辩论。

英文原文

>> Yeah. And like I I think, you know, I've talked about this before, but you know, I I really do think people underestimate how much of politics is is like a skill that people have to practice and get good at. And and yeah, um I I I think in general, uh the the candidates did did all very well and and I think it was a uh a very uh energized debate uh relative to uh some of the other formats we've seen.

关于辩论形式我还想再说一句，因为我认为这太重要了。你我都见过很多次，尤其是在上次市选期间，当看到邹至庄（Chow）对阵布拉德福德（Bradford），或者特德乔（Tedjo）对阵克龙比（Crombie）对阵帕里什（Parish）时，他们都站在讲台后面，面前图表上写满了谈话要点，无论主持人试图做什么或者提什么问题，其实都无关紧要。他们很清楚自己想说什么，这就造成了一种完全不同的动态。如果有人没看那期节目，我强烈建议大家去 TVO 网站看看那场辩论。我们都围坐在一张非常小的桌子旁。

英文原文

>> I will say another word about format because I think that's so important. You and I have seen so many particularly during the last municipal election campaign when you see Chiao versus Bradford or when you see Tedjo versus Krombi versus Parish and they're all at podiums and they've all got their talking points you know on charts in front of them and you know doesn't really matter what the m what the moderator tries to do or what questions they ask. They know what they're going to say and and it creates a completely dynamic. If you didn't see the show, I I would urge people to go onto the TVO website and take a look at the debate. We were all seated around a very small table.

是的。

英文原文

>> Yes.

并不是说这些人无论如何都会那么做，因为他们彼此之间本来就挺融洽的，

英文原文

>> It's not that these guys would have done it anyway because they're all pretty colleial with each other anyway,

但是，当你和别人隔着两英尺坐在桌旁时，所营造出的动态是完全不同的，几乎就像是在周日下午交谈时……

英文原文

>> but it creates a completely different dynamic when you are sitting two feet away from somebody at a table almost as if you're kind of in conversation on a Sunday afternoon

闲聊政治一样。那种动态是截然不同的。你不会去直击要害。你的举止会收敛一些，你会对桌边的其他人更亲切、更融洽。这种转变总是会自然而然地发生。而且我认为这营造出了一种不同的氛围，促成了一场更好的对话。我认为在本周早些时候的那场辩论中，很少有那些时刻——因为他们面前没有小抄，他们并没有直接拿出自己惯用的谈话要点和俏皮话。除了一些例外，比如迪伦·米兰达（Dylan Miranda），他准备了几句俏皮话随时准备脱口而出。

英文原文

>> chatting about politics. The dynamic is completely different. You don't go for the jugular. you behave, you're sort of more cordial and colleial with the other people at the table. That's just what invariably happens. And I think it create I think it creates a different mood. I think it allows for a better conversation. It allows for I mean there were very few moments in that debate, I thought earlier this week where people because they didn't have notes in front of them. They didn't just pull out their, you know, they didn't pull out their typical talking points and their typical snappy lines. But with Dylan Morando, a few exceptions for Dylan Mirando. He's got a couple of snappy lines he had ready to go.

是的。

英文原文

>> Yes.

但除此之外，整场辩论就像是一次谈话。

英文原文

>> But but otherwise just like a conversation.

抱歉打断一下，但即使在那一点上，我是说，照着纸面朗读准备好的语句或者面前摆着笔记，与他们如今的状态之间也是有区别的——也就是我提到的练习。在这个竞选阶段，他们都成了经验丰富的候选人，你能看得出他们更加泰然自若了。他们在镜头前甚至也更自如了一些，而作为一个需要花些时间才能在镜头前感到自在的人来说更是深有体会。而且，我认为这很能说明问题，就是他们表现得是多么真诚；如果你我回想第一场辩论——我记不清我们当时评价得有多不留情面了，但我们对第一场辩论确实没怎么口下留情。

英文原文

>> Apologies for interrupting, but but even there I mean there's a difference between you know reading the prepared line off of a page or having your notes in front of you versus what they all are at this point which is you know I mentioned practice right at this point in the race. They are all practiced candidates and you can tell that they are a bit more comfortable in their skins. they're a bit more comfortable on camera even and it you know speaking of somebody who takes some time to get comfortable on camera. Um and uh no I I I thought it was um telling uh just how um uh how genuine they seemed relative to and you know I think if you and I point back to that first debate which I I can't remember how unkind we were exactly but we were not like terribly kind to that first debate.

确实如此。我是说，就候选人应变发挥的能力而言，我认为那是我见过的最糟糕的辩论之一。我记得在自己写的专栏里对此发表了许多看法，事后有几位候选人其实还走到我面前说：“谢谢你在那场有史以来的首场辩论中对我们这么严厉，因为这让我们明白了自己需要改进的地方。”我同意你的看法。我认为本周早些时候我们在演播室见到的这四个人都有所成长。他们的表现更出色了。在整个竞选过程中，他们历经磨砺，成为了更优秀的候选人，因此我认为，如果在下一次省选举行时——不是“如果”会举行，而是“何时”会举行，抱歉，是何时举行——他们会对道格·福特（Doug Ford）构成更大的威胁。他们都有所成长。所以，我认为自由党支持者能够汲取的经验是，至少在我看来，相比三个月前，无论现在谁能赢得这场竞选，我都感到踏实多了；三个月前他们显然我都不知道算不算法二线队伍，甚至是三线或四线队伍。当时有许多很不吸引人的状况在上演。现在他们好多了。

英文原文

>> Agreed. I mean, I I think that was one of the worst debates I ever saw in terms of the ability of the candidates to perform to the moment. And I had lots of things to say about that. I remember in the column that I wrote, and a couple of the candidates actually came up to me afterwards and said, "Thanks for being so tough on us during during that first ever debate because it showed us what we needed to work on." And I agree with you. I think the four people we saw in this studio earlier this week have all grown. They're better performers. They have been forged through the course of this campaign to become better candidates and and therefore I think a bigger threat to Doug Ford if and when that next election takes place. Not if it takes place but when it takes place, sorry, when it takes place. And and you know, they've all grown. They've all grown. So, I I think the the takeaway for uh liberal partisans is, at least to my mind, I'm more comfortable with whoever wins this thing now than I would have been 3 months ago when when they were clearly I don't know if they were the B team even. They were the C team or the D team. There was a lot of not very appealing stuff going on. They're much better now.

选情走向与候选人优劣势

是的。而且其中一部分原因在于，比如像马特·贝恩斯（Matt Baines）这样在政界涉足或曾经涉足了相当长时间的人，正如我们所说，其中一部分只是在摆脱生疏状态；但像李·费尔洛（Lee Fairclough）这样的人，则是较晚进入省级政治的，对于她来说，由于她曾是一名运动员，她会明白，这其中有一部分只是为了增加训练量并进行练习……

英文原文

>> Yeah. and and you know some of that like in the case of somebody like Matt Baines who who has been in politics or had been in politics for for quite some time you know some of that is just shaking the rust off as we say um but you know somebody like Lee Fairlo is you know a more recent uh entry into uh provincial politics and and some of that is is uh I mean she's an athlete she would appreciate you know some of that is just getting your reps in and doing the practice and uh uh

而且她承认自己的劣势之一是她是个新手省议员（MPP），除了本届任期外毫无从政经验。所以，我说不好。我问了演播室里的许多人。当时有一群人，怎么说呢，我想应该算是当时不在演播室内、但观看了辩论的嘉宾。事后我问了具有代表性的一群人：“好吧，谁赢了辩论？谁对自己的帮助最大？”

英文原文

>> and she acknowledged that one of her liabilities is she's the rookie MPP right no experience in politics other than this term. So, I don't know. I think it's um I asked a bunch of people in the studio. There were a bunch of people who were sort of um how do I put this? I guess guests who were not in the studio at the time, but watched it. And I I asked a cross-section of people afterwards. Okay, who won the debate? Who helped themselves the most?

有趣的是，我大概问了 10 个不同的人，谁拿到的票数都没超过两票。对吧。

英文原文

>> And it was interesting that I probably asked 10 different people and, you know, nobody got more than two votes. Right.

对。各个层次的人都有，我是说每个人、每个人都拿到了一票。

英文原文

>> Right. there was a a good cross-section of I mean everybody everybody got a vote.

是的。

英文原文

>> Yeah.

所以对我来说这并不明朗。我不知道在入党注册人数方面的数据如何，也不知道投票会怎么进行。我们就是无从得知。但就当晚辩论舞台上大家的准备和表现而言，每个人似乎在离场时都能心想：“是的，我表现得相当不错，而且大家都注意到了。”

英文原文

>> So it's it's not apparent to me. I don't know what the numbers are like in terms of signups and how the vote's going to go. We just don't know. But in terms of how people prepared and performed on the debate stage that night, everybody seemed to be able to walk away thinking, "Yeah, I did a pretty good job and and people noticed."

是的。在整个竞选期间，我们一直说普遍的看法、公认的观点是纳夫迪普·贝恩斯处于领跑地位。我想在目前这个时候，与我交谈过的大多数人——再次说明，这绝不是什么科学的评估，按定义来说纯粹只是传闻轶事——但我与很多人交谈过，他们认为李·费尔洛正在发起非常强劲的第二名挑战。除此以外，我认为大家对于迪伦·米兰达的表现能有多强劲存在很多疑问。我是说，在这场角逐开始时，他是唯一一个没有当选经历的人——抱歉，我并不是忘了埃里克·隆巴迪（Eric Lombardi），但他已经不在选票上了。虽然迪伦·米兰达没有胜选当议员的经验，但在这次党魁竞选中，他发起了一场非常强劲的竞选活动。所以我不知道这最终会如何收场。当然，这是排序复选制选票，因此支持某位候选人的人，随着某些人被淘汰退出选票，将有机会为其他人排位。对于投票实际上会如何进行，我现在不敢做出很有信心的预测。我知道其中一个——你提到了劣势，候选人们当时被……我问他们：“好吧，你们需要改进自己的什么劣势、什么弱点？”顿河谷西选区（Don Valley West）的省议员斯蒂芬妮·鲍曼（Stephanie Bowman）非常坦率地说：“大家都说我没什么抓人眼球的魅力，我也未必能让全场眼前一亮，但在经济领域经验丰富，曾一度担任过加拿大央行董事会成员。”事后与我交谈过的一位人士只是一名中立观察者，不属于自由党阵营，只是在观摩辩论，

英文原文

>> Yeah. And you know, I think throughout the campaign, we've said that the the the common wisdom, the received wisdom is that um Naz Baines is the front runner. Um I think at this point, uh most of the people I I speak to, and again, this is not like a scientific assessment by any means. Uh it is it is by definition just sort of purely anecdotal, but I I've spoken to a lot of people who think that Lee Fairlo is is mounting a a really strong sort of second place challenge. Um and and then you know beyond that I think there's a lot of questions as to uh you know uh how strong Dylan Miranda will come in. I mean you know at the beginning of this race when he was the the one person with no elected uh sorry I apologize I'm not forgetting about Eric Eric Lombardi but he's no longer on the ballot. Um but Dylan Miranda does not have elected experience but he's he's mounted a very strong campaign through this leadership race. And so I I don't know how this is all going to shake out. Um, it is of course a ranked ballot and so people who uh, you know, support uh, one candidate will will have the opportunity to rank others as those people uh, come off of the uh, uh, come off of the ballot. Uh, yeah, I I I don't know that I would make a very uh, uh, confident prediction right now as to how the the voting will actually go. I know one of the you mentioned liabilities candidates were I I asked them okay what what liability what weakness of yours do you need to work on and Stephanie Bowman who's the MPPP for Dawn Valley West was very candid and said you know people say I haven't got a hell of a lot of pizzazz and you know I don't necessarily light up a room uh but you know a lot of experience in the on the economy member of the bank of Canada board of directors once upon a time and again one of the people I spoke to afterwards who was just non-aligned you I don't not a liberal I don't think just not aligned observing the the debate

认为她表现得最好，并说

英文原文

>> thought she did the best and said

你知道，我不是在找那种花哨显眼的人。我找的是那种……你知道，我想那句话大概是：我们今天省长办公室里已经够花哨惹眼了，而且还不全都是好事。他说，我其实是在找一个“屋里有定力的大人”，他可能没有那么花哨显眼，但可能真正懂得经济是如何运转的，懂得……你知道，懂得在执政中展现出威望与稳重。所以，你知道，四种选择，呃，取决于你想要什么……

英文原文

you know I'm not looking for pizzazz I'm looking for somebody you know I think the line was we got enough pizzazz in the premier's office today not necessarily all of it good and he said I'm kind of looking for an adult in the room who who may not have pizzazz but may actually understand how an economy works and and understand how to you know show some gravitas in governing so you know four choices and uh depending on what you're looking for

四个不同、四个截然不同的选项。

英文原文

>> four different four very different options.

嗯，而且正如鲍曼在辩论中所暗示的那样，你知道，呃，选民给予了马克·卡尼非常丰厚的回报，因为大家认为他就是“屋里有定力的大人”。而且你知道，呃，呃，至少在安大略省选民看来，你的简历里能有加拿大央行的履历，这政治资历可以说相当不错了。

英文原文

>> Well, and and as Bowman alluded to in the debate, you know, um voters have rewarded Mark Carney handsomely because of the perception that he is the adult in the room. And you know, uh uh you could do worse with political credentials, it seems, with at least the Ontario electorate than have the Bank of Canada in your CV.

没毛病。好的。这场选战的投票将于11月9日开始，于11月20日结束。我们还要提一下，本节目，也就是OnP播客，将在11月21日前往安大略省自由党党魁选举现场。地点在大多伦多会议中心。呃，我们将对全程进行直播。从头到尾全程跟进。我还不太确定我们几点开始。我们大概是中午左右开播还是怎么着？

英文原文

>> Right on. Okay. Voting begins in this race on the 9th of November. It ends on the 20th of November. And we should mention that this show, the OnP podcast, will be at the Ontario Liberal Leadership Election on November 21st. It's at the Metro Toronto Convention Center. Uh we will be live streaming the whole thing. Gavvel togavl. I'm not sure what time we're starting. Are we on around noon or something like that?

我想是在中午之后开始。

英文原文

>> I believe it starts afternoon.

对，差不多那个时候。中午12点、12点半。不管怎样，请关注我们的tvo.org网站，和我们一起度过周六下午。各位政坛发烧友，我想你们会看到一场精彩的节目、一场精彩的大会，以及一个……呃，目前还完全不明朗的结果。所以……

英文原文

>> Yeah, something like that. 12:00 noon, 12:30. Anyway, check us out at tvo.org and spend your Saturday afternoon with us. and you political junkies, I think, are going to get a good show and a good convention and um an outcome that is not abundantly obvious at the moment. So,

命中注定。

英文原文

>> for ordained.

是的，并非命中注定。完全没错。话说到这儿，进入议题三。

英文原文

>> Yeah. Not for ordained. That's exactly right. And with that, onto issue three.

秋季经济报告与财政计划

上周，该省发布了秋季经济报告，让我们在财政年度过半之际大致了解了该省的财政收支账目，而这些数字看起来并不是特别乐观。为了帮助我们更好地理解，我们欢迎政策经济学家布赖恩·刘易斯，他曾在安大略省财政部工作，现在在多伦多大学蒙克全球事务与公共政策学院任教。布赖恩，非常高兴能再次请你回到这里。你近来怎么样？

英文原文

>> Last week, the province released its fall economic statement, which gives us a snapshot of the province's books midway through the fiscal year, and the numbers aren't looking particularly rosy. To help give us a better understanding, we welcome policy economist Brian Lewis, who used to work in the Ontario Ministry of Finance and now teaches at the U of Monk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy. And Brian, it's always great to have you back in these parts. How you doing?

我很好。感谢今天能有这个机会再次来到这里。

英文原文

>> I'm doing really well. Thanks for the opportunity to be back here today.

太好了。我的好友JMM来提第一个问题。

英文原文

>> Excellent. My pal JMM has the first question.

呃，自从上周发布以来，你一直在用放大镜仔细研读这份秋季经济报告。呃，我听说有一些数字我们应该关注。你怎么看？确实，里面肯定有很多数字。那些该关注的，我是说，大家会把大量注意力放在财政收支平衡上。你知道，事实上政府的赤字将会比预算案中计划的稍微更深一些，并不是有些人预测的那种改善，约翰。呃，我已经坦白了我……

英文原文

>> Uh, so you've been going over the fall economic statement with a fine tooth comb over the last week since it was announced. U, I heard there are some numbers we should be concerned about. What do you think? Well, there are lots of numbers in it for sure. The the the ones to be concerned about, I mean, there'd be a lot of attention on the fiscal balance. You know, the fact that the government's going to run a slightly deeper deficit than it planned to in the budget, not the improvement that some people were predicting, John. Um, I've already confessed my

那是在针对人吗？听起来像是在针对人。

英文原文

>> Was that a shot? That sounded like a shot.

但我认为约翰到年底时会是对的。我们稍后会谈到这个。呃，你知道，所以很多人关注这一点，而且理应如此：今年的赤字更深，重返平衡预算的轨道也拉得更长。呃，关注度稍低、但我认为值得同样关注的事实是，政府不仅因为财政赤字而在增加债务，他们还在为资本支出借款，这同样也在增加债务。所以，呃，安大略省的债务负担随着时间的推移也会加重。所以从财务角度来看，这并不是我们见过的最让人开心的文件。呃，但我认为真正的担忧在于这个财政计划的可行性有多大。它依赖于极大程度的支出紧缩。你知道，计划是将支出增长控制在每年1%左右。项目增长控制在每年0.4%。

英文原文

>> But I think John's going to be right by the end of the year. We'll get to that. Um, you know, so there's a lot of attention on that and legitimately so a deeper deficit this year and a longer track back to a balanced budget. um a little less attention but deserves I think equal attention is the fact that not only is the government adding to the debt for running a a fiscal deficit they're also borrowing money for capital and that's adding to the debt as well. So uh Ontario's debt burden is going to go up over time as well. So from a financial perspective it's not the cheeriest document we've we've seen. Um but I think the real concern is how how doable this fiscal plan is. It relies on a enormous amount of expenditure restraint. You know, the the plan is to keep spending growth down to about 1% a year. Program growth down to 04% per year.

他们曾经证明过自己有能力做到这一点吗？

英文原文

>> Have they ever demonstrated they're capable of doing that?

绝对没有。呃，在过去的十年里，支出增长率大概一直在5%到6%左右。过去几年里，他们每年都超支至少50亿美元。金融问责办公室表示，支出计划中存在大约100亿美元的缺口。你知道他们的做法是，他们会说如果你继续照现在的做下去，会花这么多钱；而这是你们留出的资金额。

英文原文

>> Absolutely not. Uh spending growth has been about 5 to 6% for the last decade. They've overspent by at least $5 billion every year the last several years. The financial accountability office says there's a gap of about $10 billion in the spending plan. You know what they do is they say if you keep doing what you're doing, here's how much it'll cost. Here's how much you've put aside.

他们说存在巨大的缺口。所以，呃，我想我更担心的不是财政计划的规模本身，以及伴随而来的赤字等等，而是这到底有多大的可实现性，或者说政府有什么计划去实现它，因为关于他们打算如何让支出轨迹与他们公布的数字保持一致，并没有多少详细说明。

英文原文

>> They say there's a big gap. So, um I think the thing I'd be more concerned about isn't the size of the fiscal plan is and the deficits and so on going with it is is how how achievable is this or what's the government's plan to achieve that because there's not a lot of narrative around how they're going to keep that expenditure track online with the numbers that they published.

我们在这里不是愤世嫉俗的人，但我确实注意到，他们现在预测赤字将在2030年消除。你知道安大略省下一次选举将在什么时候举行吗？呃，我不知道，因为现在已经没有法律规定下一次选举具体何时举行了，但确实有一个截止期限。

英文原文

>> We are not cynical people here, but I do happen to note that the deficit they now predict will be gone in the year 2030. Do you know when the next election will be held in the province of Ontario? Um, I don't because there's no longer legislation that dictates when the next election's going to be, but there is a deadline.

确实没有。但是，呃，但显然他们被允许撑到2030年4月，也就是，呃，哇。正好就是该财政年度结束的时候。这可真是巧了？

英文原文

>> There isn't. But, uh, but apparently they're allowed to hang on till April 2030, which is, uh, Wow. Just right when the fiscal year ends. How about that?

是的。而且那一年的数字在选举举行时还没公布呢。

英文原文

>> Yeah. And the numbers for that year wouldn't be published by the time that election happens.

嗯。好吧。

英文原文

>> H. Okay.

是的。不过事先可能会有一份预算案。

英文原文

>> Yeah. But there'd be a budget beforehand, probably.

好的。行吧。谈到预算，我能谈谈我在这世界上最喜欢的话题吗？那就是我们在过去的若干年里花掉的那笔天文数字。我想去年是70亿这个数字，用来补贴电费成本，哪怕是对那些有着六位数收入的家庭，而且我认为他们其实并不需要这种补贴。在这份秋季经济报告中，我们第一次看到了暗示，表明他们可能真的准备对此采取些行动了。什么情况？

英文原文

>> Yeah. All right. Can I talk about my favorite subject in the world when it comes to budgets? And that's the ungodly high number that we have spent over the last x number of years. I think 7 billion was the number last year, subsidizing the cost of electricity, even for those who make six figure incomes and I would suggest don't really need it. We got the first hints in this fall economic statement that they may actually be prepared to do something about that. What?

是的。呃，史蒂夫，你和我大概是唯二整天都在谈论这件事的人了。呃，你甚至比我谈得还多，这真了不起。祝贺你抓住了这个话题的相关谈资。所以是的，政府第一次表现出了降低或缩减该项特定补贴成本的意向，这是个好消息。呃，根据电力市场的一些发展动态，电价原本是要下降的。而政府没有任由其下降并让人们享受这一好处，而是决定通过降低补贴成本来抵消这部分降幅。所以这是个好兆头。这是我们从政府那里看到的第一种迹象，表明他们有意愿省下一些资金，而不是降低，你知道，电费成本。话虽如此，这可能只是该补贴中相当小的一部分比例，但也是朝着正确方向迈出的一步。呃，但我在秋季经济报告中发现有意思的是，他们实际上并没有公布关于节省开支的具体数字。我也和你一样好奇，史蒂夫，这到底能为纳税人省下多少钱？它没有……没有印出来，而且它……他们并没有真正谈论与之相关的具体数字。所以我猜我对这部分的好奇心可能得不到满足了，但这是朝着正确方向迈出的一步。所以值得称赞，因为你知道，这是支出紧缩的迹象，而要让这个财政计划变得更具可信度，这些正是我们需要看到的东西。

英文原文

>> Yeah. Uh Steve, you and I are probably the only two people who speak about this all the time. Uh you even more than me, which is remarkable. Congratulations to you for picking up the uh the sort of the speaking points on this. So yes, so for the first time, the government's shown an interest in in reducing or the cost of that particular subsidy, which is good news. Uh based on some developments in the electricity market, the price of electricity was going to go down. And rather than just have it go down and people get the benefit of that, the government decided to offset that by lowering the cost of its subsidy. So that's a good sign. That's the first sign we've seen from the government that they're interested in saving some money rather than lowering, you know, the cost of electricity. That said, it's probably a fairly small percentage of the subsidy, but is a step in the right direction. Um, but I found interesting in the fall economic statement is they didn't actually publish numbers about the expenditure savings. I'm I was just curious like you Steve, how much money is this going to save the taxpayers? And it wasn't it wasn't printed and it wasn't they didn't really talk about the number related to that. So I guess my curiosity about that part of it will go unsatisfied, but a step in the right direction. And so kudos for for you know a sign of of of expenditure restraint which are the kinds of things we'll need to see in order for that fiscal plan to be you know be more credible.

美国中期选举的影响

呃，另一个消息，呃，至少是最近几天的，当然就是美国国会中期选举的影响了。你知道，对于这场席卷了参众两院的民主党海啸，你期待它会产生什么样的影响？

英文原文

>> Uh the other news uh at least in recent days of course is the uh effects of the US midterm congressional elections. You know what kind of effect are you looking for uh from this uh democratic uh tsunami that has overtaken both houses?

是“蓝海啸”，不是普通海啸，“蓝海啸”。

英文原文

>> Blue nami not tsunami blue nami.

“蓝海啸”。好的。呃……首先，我是说，这对安大略省和加拿大来说要好于其他替代情况。所以这是个好消息。呃，在某种程度上，我认为人们已经把这个因素纳入到经济预测中了。如果你看看私营部门的预测所言，他们预计从明年开始增长将恢复到更正常的步伐，而在今年则是非常缓慢的经济增长。所以，我认为这有助于让预算案中的经济预测、或者说是秋季经济报告中的经济预测保持在正轨上，这样我们就更不可能看到像今年这样的情况，即自道格·福特当选以来，增长首次显著低于预期。所以我认为这是个好消息，并且支持了该财政计划。呃，我……我想就像你从很多评论员那里听到的一样，我们不能操之过急，以为这整件事都会回到……

英文原文

>> Blue nami. Okay. Um it's first of all I mean it's better for Ontario and Canada than the alternatives. So it is good news. Um to some degree I think people were baking this into economic forecasts. If you look what private sector forecasts were saying they have growth going back to a more normal pace starting next year after very slow economic growth this year. So I think it helps keep the budgets economic or the fall economic statements economic projections on track where it's less likely we'll see something like this year where growth is coming in for the first time since Doug Ford got elected significantly lower than than projected. So I think it's good news and supports the fiscal plan. Um I I think like you've heard from a lot of commentators, we can't get ahead of ourselves thinking of you the whole thing is going to go back

回到几年前的状态。目前还不清楚民主党作为一个整体在很多事情上的立场。嗯，尤其是在关税方面。嗯，许多比我更密切关注这些事情的人认为，他们可能会赞成征收一定数量的关税来保护某些产业，但可能不会像特朗普政府所主张的那么极端高昂。所以，总之，这这对我们是有好处的。如果美国有一个对我们敌意较少的政府，对我们的经济是有好处的。但是，呃，我认为我们需要一些时间才能确切看到民主党在这些事情上的走向。而且我我不认为我们会完全回到不论四年前是什么样的好旧时光。

英文原文

to

where

we

were

a

few

years

ago.

It's

not

clear

where

the

Democrats

stand

as

a

group

on

a

lot

of

things.

Um,

and

especially

on

tariffs.

Um,

a

lot

of

people

think

that

the

most

that

who

follow

these

things

more

closely

than

I

do

think

that

they

will

probably

be

in

favor

of

a

certain

amount

of

tariffs

to

protect

certain

industries,

but

probably

not

such

extreme

high

ones

that

that

the

Trump

administration's

in

favor

of.

So,

all

all

there.

It's

it's

good

for

us.

It's

good

for

our

economy

if

we

have

a

a

government

in

the

United

States

that's

less

adversarial

to

us.

But,

uh,

it'll

take

some

time,

I

think,

for

us

to

see

exactly

where

the

Democrats

go

on

things.

And

I

I

don't

think

we're

going

all

the

way

back

to

the

good

old

days

of

whatever

it

was

four

years

ago.

记不得是谁说的了，但有句老笑话是这么说的：“我不属于任何有组织的政党。我是民主党人。”

英文原文

>> Can't

remember

who

said

it,

but

the

the

old

joke

of

like,

I

don't

belong

to

an

organized

political

party.

I'm

a

Democrat.

威尔·罗杰斯（Will Rogers）。

英文原文

>> Will

Rogers.

确实是。我们需要一些时间来来弄清楚这些结果到底意味着什么。

英文原文

>> It

is.

It's

going

to

take

some

time

for

us

to

to

see

what

these

results

actually

mean.

秋季经济报告的演变与未披露的数据

哦，哇。

英文原文

>> Oh,

wow.

你以前参与过秋季经济报告的工作吗？

英文原文

>> Have

you

ever

worked

on

a

fall

economic

statement

before?

我参与过几份。嗯，我参与的第一份是在1992年。嗯，我还参与了——

英文原文

>> I've

worked

on

a

few.

Um,

the

first

one

I

worked

on

was

in

Um,

and

I

worked

on

你拿起来吧。去拿吧。拿起来。给镜头看看。看那个。它们它们现在看起来稍微更具专业光泽、色彩也更丰富了。

英文原文

>> You

go.

Go

ahead.

Pick

it

up.

Show

the

camera.

Look

at

that.

They

They

look

a

little

more

professionally

polished

and

colorful

nowadays.

哎，史蒂夫（Steve），你伤到我的感情了，因为这实际上是我用Word Perfect做的。我当时的工作就是在Word Perfect里排版这个。嗯，我当时刚进部门不久，我们当时就是这么做的。不过那份比较短。

英文原文

>> Well,

Steve,

my

feelings

are

hurt

because

I

actually

did

this

in

Word

Perfect.

That

was

my

job

to

lay

this

out

in

Word

Perfect.

Um,

I

was

very

new

in

the

ministry

and

that's

what

we

did.

But

it

was

shorter.

它当时只涉及经济。里面几乎没有任何关于财政计划的内容。它实际上更像是一份经济报告和成绩单。对我来说，关于秋季经济报告，部分有趣之处在于我目睹了它们的演变——这不是安大略省做的第一份，他们在80年代末做过几份，但这是较早的一份。以及它们它们是如何演变成像上周安大略省的报告那样，实际上成了一份小型预算案。就像它们是件大事一样。它们不仅是呃在字数上更长——比如这个，你知道，这一份大约是我们现在编制的大小的三分之一——还有里面的内容、政策内容、财务计划，呃——

英文原文

>> It

was

only

about

the

economy.

There

was

nothing

really

about

the

fiscal

plan

in

it.

It

was

really

more

an

economic

statement

and

report

card.

And

to

me,

what's

interesting

about

fall

economic

statements

partly

is

how

I've

seen

them

evolve

from

this

was

not

the

first

one

Ontario

did.

They

did

a

few

in

the

late

80s,

but

this

was

an

early

one.

And

how

how

they've

evolved

to

being

like

last

week's

Ontario

statement,

really

a

mini

budget.

Like

they

are

a

big

deal.

They're

not

just

longer

uh

in

terms

of

words

like

this

is

you

know

this

one

is

about

like

a

third

the

size

of

the

ones

we

produce

now

but

the

content

in

it

the

policy

content

the

financial

plans

uh

它是很有用的信息吗？

英文原文

>> is

it

useful

information

其中一部分是，嗯，你知道，我认为政府有其义务，也确实提供了一些有用的信息。例如，我认为政府在年中出来说明我们目前的财政状况如何，预算案那是很久以前的事了，发生了许多事情，这是我们目前看到的情况，我认为这实际上是一个非常非常好的做法。呃，但你知道，那里面有信息，而且有很多信息，但也有些东西是我们希望我希望看到的。它并没有告诉我所有我想想要了解的事情。嗯，我已经谈过了支出计划。嗯，里面没有列出生生产力超级扣除项（productivity mega deduction）的成本数据。

英文原文

>> some

of

it

um

you

know

I

think

the

government

has

obligations

and

does

produce

some

useful

information

for

example

I

think

it

is

a

good

practice

for

the

government

to

come

out

halfway

through

the

year

and

say

here's

how

our

finances

are

doing

budget

was

a

long

time

ago

lots

has

happened

here's

what

we're

seeing

I

think

that's

actually

a

really

a

really

good

practice.

Uh

but

you

know

there's

information

and

there's

lots

of

information

in

there

but

there

are

some

things

that

we

would

like

to

I

would

like

to

have

seen.

It

doesn't

tell

me

everything

I

would

like

like

to

know.

Um

I

talked

about

the

expenditure

plans

already.

Um

there

are

no

figures

in

there

for

the

cost

of

the

productivity

mega

deduction.

对。

英文原文

>> Right.

政府称其五年内的成本为80亿美元，这听起来合情合理，我也确信他们有充分的依据。但他们在报告的表格中实际上并未列出这项数据，并表示这已容纳在财政计划中。所以这挺好。外面并没有像这样大的财政风险。这挺好。但你知道，你们公开谈论这些数字，它们却没有出现在那里。嗯，也没有与你和我都会非常乐意看到的、关于电力补贴节省额的相关数据，史蒂夫。你

英文原文

>> The

government

said

it

cost

$8

billion

over

five

years

and

that

sounds

reasonable

and

I'm

sure

it's

got

a

good

basis

for

it.

They

didn't

actually

have

it

in

their

tables

in

the

statement

and

they

said

it's

accommodated

in

the

fiscal

plan.

So

that's

good.

There's

not

like

a

big

fiscal

risk

out

there.

That's

good.

But

you

know,

you're

talking

about

the

numbers

publicly.

They're

not

there.

Um

there

weren't

numbers

related

to

the

savings

that

you

and

I

would

have

been

very

happy

to

see,

Steve,

related

to

the

electricity

subsidy.

Do

对于为什么没有包含这些数字或其他数字，你有什么见解吗？

英文原文

>> you

have

a

theory

as

to

why

these

numbers

are

not

included

or

others?

嗯，我认为每一项背后都有一个决策点。这个税收方面的，可能是提出得太晚了，导致部门在发布时感到不踏实。

英文原文

>> Um

I

think

there's

a

decision

point

around

all

of

them.

this

the

tax

one

might

have

just

come

up

too

late

in

the

process

for

the

ministry

to

feel

comfortable

publishing.

我在寻找一个更阴谋论的解释。

英文原文

>> I'm

looking

for

a

more

nefarious

explanation.

每个政府和每个财务部门、财务报表，都有他们通常会做和不会做的事情。我并不是说这些是好是坏，但这其中有一定路径依赖。安大略省长期以来非常详细地公布税收政策措施的影响。但在公布支出决策的影响细节方面，它确实没有良好的历史记录。他们只是公布新的数字，而政策变化和所有其他东西全都被混在里面。嗯，但你知道，有时候政府会保留信息，因为他们不希望这些信息被用来反击他们。但在这些案例中，我认为并不是这样。这些归根结底都是会被人知道的事情。我只是有点惊讶。也许有一个有理由不去过多谈论的，是围绕钢铁、汽车和关键矿产的新联邦-省一揽子计划的成本。我真的对此很好奇。我也将非常好奇联邦预算案里会包含什么。安大略省没有公布与此相关的任何成本，这让人不禁生疑：这是否只是把他们已经在做的事情重新包装在另一项公告之下？也许是，也许不是。上周的报告中没有任何内容表明与此有新增成本关联。所以，我不知道。有时候不不共享信息是会有原因的。

英文原文

>> Every

government

and

every

financial

department,

financial

statements

have

things

that

they

generally

do

and

don't

do.

And

I'm

not

saying

these

are

good

or

bad

things,

but

there's

a

bit

of

path

dependency

here.

Ontario

for

a

long

time

has

published

in

great

detail

the

impact

of

tax

policy

measures.

it

has

really

not

got

a

good

history

of

publishing

details

about

the

impact

of

expenditure

decisions.

They

just

publish

the

new

number

and

the

policy

changes

and

everything

else

is

just

all

mixed

in

there.

Um

but

you

know

sometimes

governments

will

hold

back

information

because

they

don't

want

it

to

be

used

against

them.

But

in

these

cases

I

don't

think

that's

it.

These

are

all

all

things

that

be

known

at

the

end

of

the

day.

I

was

just

a

bit

surprised.

Maybe

the

one

that

there's

reasons

not

to

talk

about

too

much

is

the

cost

of

the

new

federal

provincial

package

around

steel

autos

and

critical

minerals.

I

was

really

curious

about

that.

I'll

be

really

curious

what's

in

the

federal

budget.

Ontario

didn't

publish

any

cost

related

to

that

which

makes

one

wonder

is

this

just

an

accumulation

of

things

they're

already

doing

repackaged

under

another

announcement.

Maybe

it

is,

maybe

it

isn't.

that

there's

nothing

in

the

statement

last

week

that

would

say

there's

a

new

cost

associated

with

that.

So,

I

don't

know.

Sometimes

there

can

be

a

reason

for

not

not

sharing

information.

关税影响与债务利息负担

所以，我们在本播客中一向注重背景脉络，而且我们已经谈到了呃关税造成的巨大损失，呃对预算造成的损失。有些人对赤字不以为意，有些人可能对赤字十分介意，呃还有我们现在面临的现实，正如我们所说，你知道，直到2030年才能实现平衡。我只是想知道，对于目前的财政状况，我们应该把多少责任归咎于呃从你知道具体到关税，相比于更长期的财政轨迹、相比于政府做出的税收和支出等其他财政选择？目前主要是关税在伤害我们，还是主要由于其他先前的决策？

英文原文

>> So,

we

love

context

here

on

the

podcast

and

we've

already

talked

about

the

uh

the

the

toll

that

tariffs

have

taken

uh

on

uh

certainly

on

the

budget.

Some

people

not

fussed

about

deficits,

some

people

out

there

might

be

fussed

about

deficits

uh

and

the

fact

that

we're

now

looking

at,

as

we

say,

you

know,

not

balancing

until

And

I'm

just

wondering

how

much

responsibility

should

we

assign

the

the

current

fiscal

state

uh

from

you

know

to

to

tariffs

specifically

versus

the

longer

term

fiscal

trajectory

the

the

other

fiscal

choices

taxing

and

spending

that

the

government

has

made.

Is

it

mostly

tariffs

at

the

moment

that

is

hurting

us

or

is

it

mostly

other

prior

decisions?

哇。嗯，我认为我们大部分的——你知道，如果我们倒推并认定我们有一笔巨额债务，然后自问这笔债务从何而来，那么关税与此关系不大。它们只是促成了近期累积的部分额外额外债务，这些债务在以往是不会出现的。嗯，你知道，当道格·福特（Doug Ford）政府上台时，安大略省的债务已经大约有3300亿了。今年预计将达到约4800亿美元。几年前它仍然超过4000亿美元。所以，嗯，在关税对我们成为一个大问题之前就是如此了。因此，它们当然是我们未能走上更可持续的财务路径的一个原因，因为如果没有关税，我们大概会拥有平衡的预算，或者至少更接近平衡的预算。我们就不会累积这么多的债务。所以，但这其中的差额真的很难计算。就像我们——但我想我认为公平地说，我们本不会完全脱离困境。我们今年在利息上的支出也许只是160亿美元而不是170亿。嗯，即便我们处在更稳定和友好的经济时期，为以往债务融资仍然会有很大一笔成本。

英文原文

>> Wow.

Um

I

think

most

of

our

you

know

if

we

if

we

work

backwards

and

say

we

have

a

big

debt

then

we

ask

ourselves

where

the

debt

came

from

then

tariffs

have

very

little

to

do

with

it.

They

just

have

they've

contributed

to

the

re

some

of

the

recent

accumulation

of

e

extra

debt

that

we

wouldn't

have

seen

before.

Um

you

know

when

the

Doug

Ford

government

came

to

power

the

Ontario

debt

was

about

330

billion

already.

It's

on

track

to

be

about

$480

billion

this

year.

A

couple

years

ago

it

was

still

over

$400

billion.

So,

um,

before

tariffs

became

such

a

such

a

big

issue

with

us.

So,

they

are

certainly

a

reason

why

we're

not

on

a

more

sustainable

financial

path

because

in

the

absence

of

tariffs,

we

presumably

would

have

balanced

budgets

or

at least

closer

to

balanced

budgets.

We

wouldn't

be

accumulating

as

much

debt.

So,

but

the

the

delta

is

really

hard

to

calculate.

Like

we

it's

but

I

I

think

it'd

be

fair

to

say

that

we

wouldn't

have

be

completely

out

of

the

woods.

we'd

still

be

spending

maybe

only

$16

billion

on

interest

this

year

rather

than

Um

there

would

still

be

a

big

cost

of

financing

past

debt

even

if

we

were

dealing

with

more

stable

and

friendly

economic

times.

那是一个令人震惊的数字。我们每年要花160亿美元来偿付债务。

英文原文

>> That

is

a

shocking

number.

We

spend

$16

billion

a

year

servicing

the

debt.

哇。

英文原文

>> Wow.

是的。嗯，今年是174亿。我换一种大家可能更容易理解的方式来说，因为这是一个大数字，而且他们看不到它。他们不会像收到财产税或其他账单那样收到账单。但如果把这个数字拆解下来，意味着每个安大略省家庭大约要承担3,300美元。这是一笔可观的金额。这是每个家庭都在隐性支付的一笔大账单。他们只是没看到它，因为它是通过政府来运作的。

英文原文

>> Yeah.

Well,

17.4

billion

this

year.

And

I'll

put

it

in

terms

that

might

be

a

little

more

accessible

to

people

because

it's

a

big

number

and

they

don't

see

it.

They

don't

get

a

bill

like

they

do

for

property

tax

or

something.

But

if

you

break

that

down,

it

means

about

$3,300

per

Ontario

family.

That's

a

meaningful

amount

of

money.

That's

a

big

bill

that

every

family

is

implicitly

paying.

They're

just

not

seeing

it

because

it

goes

through

the

government.

但如果政府不支付那笔账单，他们要么可以少征税，要么可以把钱投入到其他服务中。政府预算中增长最快的项目，就是未来预期的债务利息增长。所以，呃，这是政府每年拨出的一笔相当可观的资金，而且仅仅为了支付累积债务的利息，这笔资金变得越来越庞大。在某种程度上，这可以归因于经济大环境，在某种程度上，也可以归因于现任政府的决策。执政时间越长，你就越得承担责任。嗯。

好了。作为最后一个古怪的问题，我们来试试这个。我确信早在

英文原文

>> But

if

the

government

wasn't

paying

that

bill,

they

could

either

be

charging

lower

taxes

or

they

could

be

putting

money

in

other

services.

It's

the

fastest

growing

line

item

in

the

government's

budget

is

the

future

expected

growth

in

interest

on

debt.

So,

um

it's

a

pretty

meaningful

amount

of

money

that

the

government's

setting

aside

every

year

and

an

increasingly

meaningful

amount

of

money

just

to

pay

interest

on

accumulated

debt.

And

to

some

degree

that

can

be

attributed

to

economic

times,

to

some

degree

it

can

be

attributed

to

decisions

of

the

government

of

the

day.

The

longer

you're

in

government,

the

more

you

have

to

own

it.

Hm.

Okay.

For

a

wacky

last

question,

let's

try

this.

I'm

sure

back

in

秋季经济报告中的晦涩措辞

在你当政的时候，你从来没有做过把毫无意义、让人难以理解的句子塞进秋季经济报告这么倒退的事——他在看自己以前写的东西，就为了确认一下。不过，嗯，我听说里面有一些，我听说有人在抱怨当前的秋季经济报告里有一些话在让人理解方面实在通不过检验。我能这么说吗？你有什么候选例子可以给我们讲讲吗？

英文原文

your day, you never did anything as retrograde as put meaningless, incomprehensible sentences into fall economic statements as he looks at his previous fees just to see. But um but I hear there are some in I I hear some people are complaining that there are some statements in the current fall economic statement that don't really pass muster as it relates to comprehension. Can I put it that way? You got any candidates for us?

我有几个。嗯，参与编制这些文件时一直让我着迷的一点就是，你希望——首先它必须准确。这些表述必须准确。呃，理想情况下大家也能看得懂。我认为那是一个重要的次要标准。所以有几个——电力行业和税收变动通常都是绝大多数人看不懂的好候选。所以如果不介意的话，我给你们念一段我最喜欢的、来自最近这份秋季经济报告里的表述：

“2024–25年度的数据已扣除3.43亿美元的一笔调整，该调整反映了安大略省电力财务公司（Ontario Electricity Financial Corporation）对2024–25年度之前以往年度的替代税电力付款收入报告方法变动的累积影响，即从以往基于分期付款的方法转变为基于税收评估的方法。”

英文原文

>> I have a few. Um one of the things that was always fascinating to me about working on these documents is is you want to you first of all it has to be accurate. The statements have to be accurate. uh ideally they make sense to people as well. I think that was an important secondary one. So there were a few electricity sector and tax changes are usually good candidates for things that most people won't understand. So if you will indulge this one, I'll read you my favorite one from the recent fall economic statement.

The 202425 figure is net of a $343 million adjustment reflecting the cumulative impact of the Ontario Electricity Financial Corporation's change in reporting electricity payments in lie of tax revenue for past years prior to 2024-25. Moving from the previous installmentbased method to a tax assessmentbased approach.

用人话讲这到底是什么意思？

英文原文

>> What does that mean in English?

意思是他们改变了某项内容的核算方式，影响了那一年的数字。

英文原文

>> They changed how they accounted for something and it affected the numbers that year.

为什么他们不直接这么说？

英文原文

Why didn't they just say that?

遗憾的是，那张表以前是我负责汇总和签字确认的。所以，我……我就援引宪法第五修正案保持沉默吧。嗯，要知道，这东西只有那些明白我们把电力行业搞得有多错综复杂的人才能看懂。我相信它是准确的，所以它通过了那项检验。但我觉得它没能通过让普通从业人员看懂的检验，差得还挺远。所以我认为你们两位都没搞懂，而你们已经算是相当不错的受众了。我……我想我大概看懂了70%吧。所以……

英文原文

>> Sadly, that was a table I used to put together and sign off on. So, I'll I'll I'll take the fifth on that. Um, you know, this is something that will only make sense to people who understand what the knots we've tied our electricity sector into. I'm sure it's accurate, but it p so it passes that test. It fails a test of making sense to a a normal practitioner, I think, by a fairly wide margin. So, I don't think either of you got it, and you're a pretty good audience. I I think maybe I got about 70% of it. So,

这意味着他比我多懂了70%。我……那完全超出了我的理解范围。

英文原文

>> which means he got 70% more than I did. I That went right over my head.

说实话，我能插一句今年秋季经济报告技术简报会上的事吗？呃，有人问起LCBO营收下滑的问题，在以往年份当我们问起这个时，呃，你们知道，政府之前曾表示，你们知道，呃，安大略省的人口饮酒量比以前少了，这呃导致了LCBO的财政回报下滑。现在我们碰巧也知道，这也是事实，即本届政府推行的一些政策变动也是造成这一情况的原因。但那个呃……呃……那位政府代表用的一句印在我脑海里的话是，呃，他们是这么说的，类似：“是的，由于节制，我们继续面临压力。”

我觉得那真是一句很有意思的说辞，让我印象深刻。

英文原文

>> Actually, can I throw one in just from the technical briefing uh for this year's fall economic statement? Uh somebody asked about the um declining revenues from the LCBO and in prior years when we have asked about this uh you know the government has said previously that you know uh the Ontario population is drinking less than they used to and that is uh contributing to declining financial returns from the LCBO. Now we also happen to know that it's also a fact that certain policy changes this government has made have also contributed to that. But the phrase that the um uh the the government representative used that stuck in my brain was uh they they said something like yes, we continue to be under pressure due to moderation. I just thought that was a lovely phrase and it stuck with me.

是的。也许你可以再进一步，谈谈虽然这可能正在让政府在收入上蒙受损失，但也许它在医疗保健以及与消费他们所售物品相关的某些负面后果方面，正在为我们省钱。那……但那本该是我的下一步思考，但我不是做公关传播工作的。

英文原文

>> Yeah. Maybe you could just go a step further and talk about well it's costing might be costing the government money on revenue. Maybe it's saving us money in terms of healthcare and some of the negative outcomes related to consumption of what they sell. That but that that that would have been my next step, but I'm not in the communications business.

我现在脑海里就能听到比尔·戴维斯（Bill Davis）的声音在说：“凡事要适度，年轻的帕根（pagan）。凡事要适度，我想包括秋季经济报告里的表述也是。”呃，布赖恩·刘易斯（Brian Lewis），非常感谢你今天来到TVO做客。呃，我们期待你未来的到访，祝你在芒克学院（Munk School）一切顺利。

英文原文

>> I can I can hear Bill Davis's voice right now saying moderation in all things, young pagan. Moderation in all things, including I guess statements in fall economic statements. Uh Brian Lewis, really good of you to join us here at TVO today. Uh we look forward to your future visits here and good luck at the bunk school.

好的，太棒了。感谢今天能来到我最喜欢的播客，也期待明天收听时听到本期节目的其他内容。谢谢你们给我这个机会。谢谢。

英文原文

>> Okay, great. thanks to be here on my favorite podcast today and looking forward to whatever else is on the episode when I listen to it tomorrow. Thank you for the opportunity. Thanks.

谢谢你。非常感谢。

英文原文

>> Thank you. Thank you so much.

垃圾填埋场政策与地方专栏讨论

现在到了我们的常规栏目“你的专栏，我的专栏”，在其中JMM和我聊一聊过去一周我们为tvo.org撰写的专栏文章。先生，今天你要为我们带来什么？

我上周稍微提到了这一点，但我决定为网站的一篇专栏详细展开谈谈，呃，关于垃圾填埋场政策的变动。正如我上周提到的，大家知道，呃，在2018年，道格·福特在首次竞选省议员时，呃，承诺给予各市镇明确且合法的权利来反对其管辖范围内的垃圾填埋场。呃，现实与这一承诺发生了碰撞。呃，他实际上在2020年修改了法律，而在2026年他们又改了回去，呃，废除了《环境评估法》中要求新垃圾填埋场必须获得市镇同意的那一部分。

而且呃，所以大家知道，我认为这是省长那种民粹主义政治直觉偶尔与极其残酷的政策现实发生碰撞的一个例子，对吧？垃圾填埋场几乎是“邻避主义（NIMBYism）”及其扭曲事物方式的绝佳范例，因为，你知道，无论你对安大略省当前在2026年的固体废物管理总体上有什么看法，我们都需要垃圾填埋场，而该行业正在敲响警钟，因为呃，我们的许多垃圾填埋场即将结束其使用寿命，我们需要新的垃圾填埋场，而你要在哪里建它们呢？没有人希望把它们建在自己的社区里，或者说至少几乎没有人希望建在自己的社区里。后来有个人联系我，说，嘿，其实是有社区愿意接纳垃圾填埋场的，但他们声称该行业并没有做那种公众参与工作，他们只是……

英文原文

>> Time now for our regular feature, your column, my column, in which JMM and I have a little chitchat about the columns we wrote for tvO.org this past week and what will you favor us with today, sir?

So, I mentioned this a bit last week, but I decided to expand on it for a column for the website uh about the changes to landfill policy. As I mentioned last week, you know, uh in 2018, then running for his first election proincially, uh Doug Ford promised to give municipalities uh a clear and legal right to oppose landfills in their jurisdiction. Uh reality has collided with that promise. uh he did in fact change the laws in 2020 and in 2026 they are changing them back to uh remove the uh the section of the environmental assessment act that required that uh municipalities consent to new landfills

and uh so you know I think this is an example of the way that uh the premier's you know populist political instincts do occasionally collide with pretty cold policy reality, right? Landfills are the almost the the the perfect example of of nimism in the way it can distort things because, you know, whatever your feelings about solid waste management generally at the moment in Ontario in 2026, we need landfills and the the sector is kind of ringing alarm bells because uh a lot of our landfills are coming to the end of their usable lives and we need new landfills and where are you going to build them? Nobody wants them in their communities or at least almost nobody wants them in their communities. I I have since had one person reach out to say like, hey, like there are in fact willing host communities for landfills, but they they allege the the the sector is not doing the the sort of public engagement work. They're just

让政府通过立法来扫清障碍。嗯，所以这……这是一个有用的例子，说明了你知道，我想这里积极的解读是，政府让其民粹主义冲动撞上了现实，并且他们决定必须让现实获胜，这你知道比另一种选择要好。呃，我们可以讨论当政府不让现实获胜时会发生什么。呃，我们在第一部分就在讨论那个。嗯，而且呃，大家知道，但这也值得一提的是，如同大家知道的，政府在这里呃正在讨论一些其他的呃重大变动。呃，他们正在讨论增加焚烧的使用以延长这些垃圾填埋场的寿命。嗯，而且……

因为有时联邦政策也很重要，呃，最高法院呃已决定审理上诉——塑料行业试图对呃联邦政府的禁用一次性塑料禁令提出质疑。呃，那项诉讼在下级法院经历了一段颇为曲折的过程，现在最高法院将审理那一裁决。呃，所有这一切都是想说，固体废物管理政策这个通常有点乏味的领域，在接下来的呃比方说一到两年里，实际上会变得有点意思。

英文原文

>> having the government clear the way uh legislatively. Um so it's it's a useful example of how you know I guess the the positive spin here is that the the government has uh had you know it's it's populist impulses meet reality and they have decided that reality has to win which is you know better than the alternative. Uh we could talk about what happens to governments when they don't let reality win. Uh we were talking about that in segment one. Um and uh you know but but it it is also worth saying that like you know there are some other uh big changes that the government is is uh discussing here. Uh they are talking about increasing the use of incineration to extend the the lives of these landfills. Um and

because sometimes federal policy matters as well, uh the Supreme Court uh has decided to hear the appeal of uh the the plastics industry has tried to challenge the um the federal government's single-use plastics ban. Uh that has had a a bit of a an interesting ride through lower courts and now the Supreme Court will hear that decision. Uh all of which is to say that the normally kind of um boring field of solid waste management policy is actually going to get kind of interesting in the next uh let's say year or two

有点意思。

英文原文

>> kind of

如果你像我一样是个怪人，那它就有点意思。而且呃，所以这值得予以关注，我会关注它的。而且呃，大家知道，我们将看看呃本届政府到底会做出多少变动。我想就上周的市政竞选活动做一个后续跟进。我想写一篇专栏，关于一个我认识了很久的人，但我怀疑安大略省的大多数人从未听说过他。这正是我想要写他的原因。

他的职业生涯始于50年前担任汉密尔顿市议员。他在首次当选汉密尔顿市议会议员时，还是个我不知道26、27岁左右的年轻人。然后我想大约在26年前，他参加了一场补选，成为了安大略省省议会的省议员，最终在道尔顿·麦坚迪（Dalton McGuinty）和凯瑟琳·韦恩（Kathleen Wynne）两届政府中都担任过内阁部长。他的宣誓就职仪式，我认为是我见过的所有内阁部长中最难忘的，我会告诉你们为什么——

大家知道，当你把手放在……如果他们这么做的话，他们把手放在《圣经》上，然后说，你知道，“我谨庄严宣誓，呃，你知道，恪尽职守、忠实履行我的职责，并行使作为某某部门部长所托付给我的权力和信任，愿上帝助我。”而当泰德·麦克米金（Ted McMeekin）——也就是我在这里谈论的人——当泰德·麦克米（Ted McMe）念到最后那部分并祈求神灵保佑时，

他是这样做的：手放在《圣经》上，他说，“作为某某部长托付给我的权力和信任，愿上帝助我。”

他这么做的时候，全场都哄堂大笑。那真是非常……

英文原文

>> kind of if you're a a weirdo like me and uh so it will bear paying attention to I will be paying attention to it and uh you know we will see uh just uh how many changes this government makes. I wanted to do a follow-up on last week's municipal election campaigns. And I wanted to do a column about a guy who I have known for a long time, but I suspect most people in the province of Ontario had never heard of. All the more reason why I wanted to write about him.

He started his career as a Hamilton City Councelor 50 years ago. He was a kid of I don't know 26, 27 years old, something like that when he first got elected to Hamilton City Council. He then I think about 26 years ago ran in a bi-election and became a provincial member of the Ontario legislature eventually a cabinet minister in both Daltton McGinty and Kathleen wins governments he had I think the most memorable swearing in of any cabinet minister I have ever seen and I'll tell you why

you know that when you put your hand on the if they do this they put their hand on the Bible and they say you know I solemnly swear to uh you know duly and faithfully do my job and execute the powers and trusts reposed in me as minister of whatever whatever so help me God and when Ted McMeakin who is who I'm talking about here when Ted McMe got to the part where he says the last part and invokes the deity

he did it like this had his hand on the Bible and he said prior and trust posted to me is minister of whatever so help me God

and the whole place broke up when he did it was just very

他那样做令人难忘。

英文原文

memorable

the

way

he

did

that

2018年，就像安大略省各地的许多自由党人一样，他失去了自己的席位，但他并没有就此离开政坛。他参加了接下来的市政选举并赢得了席位。因此，他又兜了一圈回到了汉密尔顿市议会。刚当选时，他是市议会最年轻的成员；如今到了最后，他成了市议会最年长的成员，年逾七旬。

与许多人不同，我觉得在选举之夜，对于上周落选的事实，他表现得非常坦然自若。而且，你知道，我给他发了一封电子邮件，单纯是因为我认识他很久了，我说，你知道的，干得好，泰德。你度过了一段极其出色的历程。诸如此类的话。他给我回了封信，真的非常感人。

英文原文

>> in

2018

like

so

many

liberals

across

Ross

Ontario.

He

lost

his

seat,

but

he

wasn't

done

with

politics.

He

ran

in

the

next

municipal

election

and

won

a

seat.

So,

he

came

full

circle

back

onto

Hamilton

City

Council.

He

started

as

the

youngest

member

of

city

council.

When

he

was

first

elected,

he

was

now

at

the

end

the

oldest

member

of

city

council

in

his

70s.

Unlike

a

lot

of

people,

I

think

on

election

night,

he

was

completely

serene

about

the

fact

that

he

lost

last

week.

And

you

know,

I

sent

him

an

email

just

because

I've

known

him

a

long

time

and

I

said,

you

know,

good

job,

Ted.

You

had

a

heck

of

a

good

run.

yada

yada

yada,

that

kind

of

thing.

And

he

sent

me

a

note

back

that

was

really

quite

lovely.

他说，你知道，在1968年，他曾为罗伯特·F·肯尼迪的总统竞选做志愿者——那场竞选当然以遇刺告终。

英文原文

>> He

said,

you

know,

in

1968

he

volunteered

for

Robert

F.

Kennedy's

presidential

campaign,

which

of

course

ended

in

assassination.

是的。

英文原文

>> Yes.

他记得RFK曾对像他这样的年轻人说过：“不要发火。不要报复。去当选。”

英文原文

>> And

he

remembers

RFK

saying

to

young

people

like

him,

"Don't

get

mad.

Don't

get

even.

get

elected.

这对他的人生产生了深远的影响，因为他践行了那条建议。他走入公众视野，赢得了选举，在公共生活中度过了近五十年。我一直认为泰德·麦克米金是公共生活中的好人之一。我确信，即使现在已经78岁，他仍会继续做志愿者，在汉密尔顿市行善积德，而这个城市极度需要更多善行。

英文原文

>> And

that

had

a

profound

influence

on

his

life

because

he

followed

that

advice.

He

went

out

there

and

he

got

himself

elected

and

he

spent

almost

five

decades

in

public

life.

And

I've

always

thought

Ted

McMen

was

one

of

the

good

guys

in

public

life.

I'm

sure

even

now

at

age

78,

he

will

continue

to

volunteer

to

do

good

works

in

the

city

of

Hamilton,

which

desperately

needs

more

good

works

to

be

done.

还有，嗯，好了，泰德。非常精彩的历程。干得好。我只想非常简短地补充一点，常看我们节目的观众会知道我是一个住房政策狂热分子。但那是我最初在省议会认识泰德·麦克米金的契机。他最终成为了凯瑟琳·韦恩内阁的市政事务与住房厅长。而且，你知道，确实有这样的人——有些人接管了一个职务部门，他们对那项业务了解不多，或者只是将其视为通往更显赫职位的垫脚石；但住房议题，以及我想说更广泛意义上的消除贫困，尤其是住房议题，确实是麦克米金的激情所在之一，这在他担任厅长期间以及当时我与他的少数几次交谈中充分体现了出来。所以，是的，他在省议会任职期间确实给我留下了深刻印象。

英文原文

>> And

um

Okay,

Ted.

Hell

of

a

run.

Well

done.

I

just

want

want

to

add

very

briefly

that

uh

you

know

uh

regular

viewers

will

know

that

I

am

a

housing

policy

sicko.

Um

but

that

was

how

I

first

met

uh

Ted

McMeek

and

uh

you

know

at

the

legislature.

he

would

eventually

become

Kathleen

W's

uh

minister

of

municipal

affairs

and

housing

and

um

uh

you

know

truly

somebody

for

whom

you

know

like

some

people

they

they

get

a

a

portfolio

and

they

they

don't

know

much

about

the

file

or

they

you

know

they

see

it

as

just

you

know

a

stepping

stone

to

a

more

prominent

portfolio

uh

but

but

the

the

housing

issue

u

and

and

I

would

say

like

combating

poverty

more

broadly

uh

but

you

know

the

housing

issue

really

really

uh

uh

one

of

McMakin's

passions

that

really

came

through

in

his

time

as

minister

and

and

the

the

the

handful

of

conversations

I

had

uh

with

him

at

that

time.

Uh

so

uh

yeah,

it

certainly

made

an

impression

uh

on

me

during

his

time

at

the

legislature.

观众来信

很好。我们要进入读者信箱环节吗？

英文原文

>> Good.

Shall

we

go

to

the

mailbag?

开始吧。

英文原文

>> Let's

do

it.

好的，提醒大家，如果您有迫切想问的问题或深刻的评论，我们随时欢迎您来信至 onpolitics@tvo.org。J.M.，交给你了。

好的。本周的邮件来自多伦多的戴维，他是安大略省议会实习项目（OLIP）的成员，我们之前在这个播客中谈论过这个项目。我们非常喜欢这个项目，也就是OLIP项目。戴维写道：“我知道你们两位多年来都与各届实习生见过面，你们可能也知道，我们在为期10个月的实习期间的任务之一，就是撰写一篇与省政治相关的论文。在省议会大楼待了大半个月后，我的工作中给我留下最深印象的方面是信任与安全。我的重点是撰写省议员们如何共同分担这一负担、省议会大楼可能如何应对，以及作为一名民选官员的安全应当包含什么。我希望能进一步了解第9号法案可能如何执行以保护民选官员的安全。是否有任何文献或研究资料可以供我参考？非常感谢你们的关照。我很期待每周五收听你们的播客。祝好，戴维。”

英文原文

>> Okay,

let's

remind

everybody

that

if

you've

got

a

burning

question

or

insightful

comment,

we

always

love

hearing

from

you

at

on

politicsvo.org.

JMN,

take

it

away.

Uh

right.

So

this

uh

week's

email

comes

from

David

in

Toronto

uh

who

is

part

of

the

Ontario

Legislature

Internship

Program,

which

we've

talked

about

before

uh

on

this

podcast.

We

are

big

fans

of

the

program,

the

OLIP

program.

Uh

David

writes,

"Uh

as

I

know

both

of

you

have

met

with

various

cohorts

over

the

years,

you

may

also

know

that

part

of

our

task

during

our

10-month

stint

is

writing

a

paper

on

a

topic

relevant

to

provincial

politics.

Having

been

around

Queens

Park

for

the

better

part

of

a

month,

the

aspect

of

my

job

that

has

impressed

me

the

most

is

trust

and

security.

My

focus

was

to

write

about

how

MPPPS

also

share

this

burden,

how

Queens

Park

might

respond,

and

what

safety

as

an

elected

official

should

entail.

I

was

hoping

to

learn

more

about

how

Bill

9

may

be

enforced

to

keep

elected

officials

safe.

Might

there

be

any

literature

or

items

of

research

you

could

point

me

to.

Thank

you

so

much

for

your

consideration.

I

look

forward

to

your

podcast

each

Friday.

Best

David,

我能快速接一下最后那句话吗？“我很期待每周五收听你们的播客”，因为我上周去了“铁锤城”，也就是我们现在喜欢称呼汉密尔顿的名字。上周我去那里看望我父亲，我们正在市中心散步，有两个人走过来对我说：哦，真的很喜欢这个播客，期待每周五观看或收听。所以苏珊·奥格雷迪、斯科特·吉利斯，谢谢你们在街上叫住我打招呼，希望你们正在收听，正如我承诺的那样，我提到了名字。感谢你们收听我们的播客。好了，回到戴维的来信。你怎么看？

嗯，他提到了第9号法案，为了向大家提供一些背景信息，那是《市政问责法案》，它对市镇民选官员施加了全省范围的行为守则。我们之前在播客中对该法案进行过相当深入的讨论。政府花了很长时间才真正让它通过三读并获得御准。对于为什么会这样，我有一些持怀疑态度的猜测理由。

英文原文

>> can

I

just

quickly

pick

up

on

that

last

line?

I

look

forward

to

your

podcast

each

Friday

because

I

was

in

the

hammer,

as

we

like

to

call

Hamilton

now.

I

was

in

the

hammer

last

week

uh

visiting

my

dad

and

we

were

walking

around

downtown

and

two

people

walked

up

to

me

and

said

uh

oh

really

love

the

podcast.

Look

forward

to

watching

it

every

Friday

or

listening

to

it

every

Friday.

So

Susan

O'Grady

Scott

Gillies,

thank

you

for

stopping

me

on

the

street

and

saying

hi

and

I

hope

you're

listening

and

I

as

I

promised

I

names.

I

thank

you

for

listening

to

our

podcast.

Okay,

back

to

David's

letter.

What

do

you

think?

Uh

well,

so

uh

he

mentioned

Bill

Nine,

and

just

to

give

people

some

context

here,

that's

the

um

Municipal

Accountability

Act,

which

uh

imposes

a

provincewide

code

of

conduct

on

uh

municipal

elected

officials.

Uh

we've

discussed

this

bill

at

some

length

on

the

podcast

before.

It

took

the

government

a

very

long

time

to

actually,

uh

get

it

through

third

reading

and

and

uh

get

it

to

royal

ascent.

Uh

I

have

some

cynical

reasons

that

I

suspect

that

might

be

the

case.

Uh

他们在拖延时间。

英文原文

>> they

rag

the

puck

on

it.

是的。大家可以在 tvo.org 上阅读相关内容。我想说的是，在这种情况下，与戴维的咨询相关的问题是——我们之前也谈过，有些地方的市政政治已经变得多么恶劣，在某些情况下，民选官员对其人身安全有着真正的担忧。而在那些地方，过去可能只有大约半打人来参加镇议会会议，而且那时并不那么令人紧绷不安。政治从来没有那么剑拔弩张过。显然，每个社区都不同，社区内总会有一些让某些人非常激动的问题，但那时人们并不会尖叫着发出死亡威胁；不幸的是，在安大略省的许多地方，这现在成了工作的一部分。几周前我写过一篇专栏文章。我记得曾与马尼图林岛上人口大约800人的比灵斯乡的乡长交谈过，

英文原文

>> Yeah.

And

and

people

can

read

about

that

at

tvO.org.

Um,

and

I

would

say

in

this

case,

the

the the

relevant

issue

to

to

David's

inquiry

is,

and

we've

talked

before

about

um

just

how

nasty

municipal

politics

uh

have

gotten

in

some

places

where

uh

elected

officials

uh

have,

you

know,

genuine

uh

concerns

about

their

physical

safety

in

some

cases

in

places

where,

you

know,

it

used

to

be

like,

you

know,

maybe

a

half

dozen

people

showed

up

for

a

town

council

meeting

and,

you

know,

it

it

was

not

that

uh

fraught.

uh

that

you

know

politics

was

never

that

passionate.

Um

you

know

obviously

you

know

every

every

community

is

different

and

and

there

are

always

issues

within

the

community

that

that

some

people

are

very

passionate

about

but

people

weren't

screaming

death

threats

and

unfortunately

in

a

lot

of

places

in

Ontario

uh

it

is

now

part

of

the

job.

I

wrote

a

column

some

weeks

ago.

I

remember

having

talked

to

the

mayor

of

Billings

Township,

population,

whatever

it

is,

800

on

Manatulan

Island,

他一直在竞选连任，直到最后一刻突然撤回了申请文件。我问他为什么。他说：

英文原文

>> who

was

running

for

reelection

right

up

until

the

last

minute

when

he

suddenly

pulled

his

papers.

And

I

asked

him

why.

And

he

said,

“我想大概是又有人隔着马路冲我喊叫，让我滚蛋，次数实在是太多了。”

英文原文

>> I

guess

it

was

just

one

time

too

many

of

somebody

shouting

across

the

road

at

me

to

f

off.

你知道，即使是在——我们通常认为这是大城市的现象，但它正发生在各个地方。是的。是的。

英文原文

>> And

you

know,

even

in,

you

know,

we

think

of

this

as

a

big

city

phenomenon,

but

it's

happening

all

over

the

place.

Yeah.

Yeah.

我想他和许多人一样，只是受够了。

英文原文

>> And

I

think

he

just

like

many

people

just

had

enough.

是的。当我们第一次读到戴维的电子邮件时，我想到的一件事是，现在距离国会山枪击事件12周年刚过去几周。

我认为那一事件确实改变了——我的意思是，从直观上看，它改变了许多地方处理安全问题的方式。我最熟悉的两个地方当然是多伦多市政厅和安大略省议会。正如我之前提到的，我父亲曾是一名省议会记者。因此，我从十几岁起就进进出出省议会。过去的情况是，你可以随便挑省议会的任何一扇门走进去，和保安聊两句，以我的情况来说，就是“是的，我父亲在三楼工作”，然后就可以登记进入了。现在省议会已经不是那样了。对于那些还未佩戴安全证件的立法机构工作人员的访客，只有一个单独的入口。如果你只是普通公众前来参观省议会，你必须通过一个入口进入，那里就像机场安检一样，所有的包都要经过扫描，过去完全不是这样的。多伦多市议会也是如此，我过去常常——我的意思是，我甚至从未加入过多伦多市议会的任何正式记者团，因为你可以直接走进去旁听会议，然后直接撰写相关报道，对吧？在我刚入行时，那是存在的最具亲和力、最容易接触的政府形式。如今它依然比省议会更容易进入，我也想给予多伦多市政厅应有的肯定。但他们依然采取了许多相同的安保措施。尽管我完全理解政客们为何觉得有此必要，而且我确实确切知道，民选官员（当然包括多伦多市议会的官员）不得不应对死亡威胁。我只是觉得这一切非常令人遗憾

英文原文

>> Yeah.

Um,

you

know,

one

of

the

things

that

uh

when

we

first

read

uh

David

's

email,

I

I

thought

about

is

you

know,

we're

not

uh

we're

now

a

few

weeks

past

the

12th

anniversary

of

the

Parliament

Hill

uh

shootings.

Um

and

I

think

that

event

really

changed

I

I

mean

just

visibly

it

changed

the

way

a

lot

of

places

uh

handle

security.

And

you

know,

the

the

two

that

I'm

most

familiar

with,

of

course,

are

Toronto

City

Hall

and

the

Ontario

Legislature.

And

you

know,

so

I've

mentioned

before,

you

know,

my

my

father

was

a

Queens

Park

reporter.

And

so

I

have

literally

been

coming

in

and

out

of

the

legislature

since

I

was

a

teenager.

And

you

know,

it

used

to

be

the

case

that

you,

you

know,

you

could

pick

any

door

of

the

legislature,

walk

in,

talk

to

a

security

guard,

and

in

my

case,

it

was

like,

yeah,

my

dad

works

on

the

third

floor,

and

then,

you

know,

okay,

he

gets

signed

in.

Um,

that's

not

how

it

is

at

the

legislature

anymore.

there

is

a

single

entrance

that

guests

uh

who

are

not

uh

already

like

security

badgewearing

members

of

the

legislative

staff.

If

you

are

just

a

member

of

the

public

looking

to

vis

visit

the

legislature,

you

enter

through

one

entrance

and

it's

like

airport

security

and

you

get

all

of

your

bags

scanned

and

it

it

did

not

used

to

be

that

way.

Um,

and

the

same

is

true

of

Toronto

City

Council

where

I

used

to

be

uh

I

mean

I

I

I

was

never

even

a

member

of

any

kind

of

formal

press

gallery

at

Toronto

City

Council

because

you

can

just

walk

in

and

attend

the

meeting

and

you

can

just

write

about

it,

right?

It's

it's

it

was

when

I

started

like

the

most

accessible

form

of

government

that

there

is.

Um,

and

now

it

is

still

more

accessible

than

Queens

Park

and

I

I

want

to

give

Toronto

City

Hall

its

due.

Uh

but

it's

it's

still

they've

they've

imposed

a

lot

of

those

same

security

measures.

Um

and

as

much

as

I

you

know

I

certainly

understand

why

politicians

feel

that

it

is

necessary.

Um

and

uh

you

know

certainly

yeah

like

there

I

I

know

for

a

fact

that

elected

officials

certainly

Toronto

City

Council

you

know

have

had

to

deal

with

death

threats.

Um,

I

just

find

it

all

so

regrettable

仍然……那种，你知道，公众可进入性已经被关闭了。

英文原文

still that that you know uh public accessibility has been uh closed down.

我不想让我们两个听起来像守旧的老顽固，尽管显然我确实是，但我记得甚至在你还是个十几岁孩子之前的那些日子，你可以去省议会大楼（Queen's Park），你可以直接从许多不同的大门走进去。

英文原文

>> I don't want to sound like the old fogy among the two of us, even though I clearly am, but I remember those days even before you were a teenager when you could go to Queens Park and you could walk right in any number of different doors.

没人会过问你任何事。你直接走进去，上楼去旁听辩论，看质询时间，随你便。你现在不能那样做了。我认为改变的部分原因是，肯定出现过针对政界人士的死亡威胁。我记得大约 35 年前的一次抗议，当时鲍勃·雷（Bob Rae）和新民主党（NDP）执政，省议会大楼前有一场受伤工人示威，一度真的有两千左右的受伤工人冲击了大楼。

英文原文

>> Nobody asked you anything. You could just walk right in and go up, watch the debates, watch question period, whatever you wanted. You cannot do that anymore. I think part of the reason it changed is there there have certainly been death threats against politicians. I remember a protest about 35 years ago when Bob Ray and the NDP were in power when there was an injured workers demonstration in front of Queens Park and literally a couple of thousand injured workers stormed the building at one point.

是的，

英文原文

>> Yeah,

他们冲击了大楼。他们砸穿了前门。他们冲上了二楼。格雷格·索尔巴拉（Greg Sorbara）当时是劳工部长。我当时真真切切有一瞬间以为他们要冲进议事厅把他抓起来拖出去，因为他们以为作为劳工部长，他要对劳工赔偿制度做一些让他们非常不满意的改动。结果事实并非如此，那只是个谣言。

英文原文

>> they stormed the building. They smashed through the front doors. They went up to the second floor. Greg Sorbero was the Minister of Labor. I honestly thought for a moment there they were going to storm into the chamber and grab him and drag him out because they thought as the labor minister he was going to make some changes to workers compensation that were that they were very unhappy with. Turns out that wasn't the case. It was a rumor.

但这类事情让我们的公共建筑变得比过去难进得多了。

英文原文

>> Um but those kinds of things have made our public buildings so much less accessible than they used to be.

这真是件憾事。我真不敢相信自己居然会大声把这话给说出来，但确实：还是过去的日子好。

英文原文

>> And it's a shame. And I can't believe I'm going to say this out loud but here we go. It was better back in the old days.

不，你知道，我同意你的看法，对吧？而且我……你知道，政府对公众开放且亲民的原则，我认为是一个应该牢记的原则。我也理解为什么……因为这些都是活生生的人，他们在努力过好自己的生活，做着重要的公职工作，他们不应该在做这些重要工作的同时还要为自己的人身安全担忧。但我认为，我们双方也同样完全有理由觉得这令人遗憾。

英文原文

>> No. And you know, I agree with you, right? And and I I uh you know, the the the principle of, you know, government being open and accessible to the people, I think, is is one keeping in mind. And I I I I understand why these are like these are real people trying to live their lives and and do important public jobs and they should not have to worry about their physical security while they do this important work. Uh but I think we are both entitled to feel it is regrettable all the same.

确实如此。我们来报一下电子邮箱地址，然后结束今天的节目吧。

英文原文

>> Absolutely. Let's give the email address and get out of here.

确实如此。再次重申，如果你想就节目内容提问，请发邮件给我们：onpolitics@tvo.org。

英文原文

>> Absolutely. Again, if you'd like to ask about content on the show, please email us at onp politics@tvo.org.

这就是 2026 年 11 月 6 日星期五的 #onpoli 播客节目。

英文原文

>> And that is the OnPy podcast for this Friday, November 6th, 2026.

你可以在任何获取播客的平台上关注我们的节目，这样每当有新一期上线时你都会收到通知。你也可以在 TVO Today 的 YouTube 频道上观看播客的视频版本。任何反馈，我们都很乐意听取，无论是好评、差评还是中立意见。请给我们发邮件至 onpolitics@tvo.org。请附上你的姓名和所在地。本周节目的制作人是马修·奥马拉（Matthew O'Mara）。剪辑是科林·基什（Colin Kish）。

英文原文

>> You can follow our show wherever you get your podcasts so that you get notified each time a new episode is available. And you can see the video version of the podcast on the TVO Today YouTube channel. Any feedback you have, we're always happy to hear it, good, bad, or indifferent. Write us an email at onpolitics at tvo.org. Please include your first and last name and where you're from. This week's episode was produced by Matthew Omera. Editing by Colin Kish.

制作支持来自乔纳森·霍洛韦尔（Jonathan Hallowell）以及 TVO 的数字媒体服务团队。

英文原文

>> Production support from Jonathan Hollowell and TVO's digital media services team.

劳丽·福克斯（Laurie Few）是数字业务执行制片人。凡妮莎·卡斯（Vanessa Case）是媒体副总裁。我们一直都很想对演播室团队致以谢意，感谢他们在这里做出的布置，让播客的视频画面看起来如此出色。大家，我们下周五再见，拜拜。再见。

英文原文

>> Lori F is the executive producer of digital. Vanessa Casease is vice president media. We always love to give a shout out to the studio crew for setting things up here and making the video part of the podcast look so nice. And until next Friday, everybody, bye-bye. Byebye.