超政治时代的质感与去机构化参与:狂热节奏、短视主义与政治素养的觉醒 The Ezra Klein Show 2026-09-08

政治时代的质感与“超政治”的兴起

埃兹拉·克莱因:描述一个政治时代的大体形态、质感与节奏,是最困难的事情之一。我们总在谈论各种具体的现象:我们会谈论“觉醒文化”(wokeness),谈论“所有警察都是混蛋”(ACAB),谈论“觉醒派简直不可理喻”;我们也会谈论特朗普主义,谈论“我承蒙上帝拯救,必将让美国再次伟大”。但要真正触及这一切赖以发生的宏观总体形式,却是极其困难的。最近有一个逐渐流行开来、我也在周围频繁听到的概念,那就是“过度政治化”(hyper-politicization)。

“超政治”(Hyperpolitics)是安东·耶格尔(Anton Jäger)提出的一个核心概念。耶格尔是一位历史学家,也是《纽约时报》观点版的特约撰稿人。他同时还是《超政治:没有政治后果的极端政治化》(Hyper-Politics: Extreme Politicization Without Political Consequences)一书的作者。他在书中所描述的,正是这样一个政治无处不在的时代:政治观点与政治立场的狂热度和激烈程度异乎寻常地高涨,社会情绪从一端剧烈地摆动到另一端;但与此同时,这些政治诉求并未稳固地附着在政治机构和组织结构之上。因此,这些声势浩大、动员极度密集的时期,似乎并未产生任何持久的政治后果。我认为,这是一种非常深刻的视角,有助于我们洞察所有人切身感受到的政治现状背后的深层逻辑。现在他来到了我们的节目中。安东·耶格尔,欢迎来到本期节目。

Original English

Ezra Klein: One of the hardest things to do is describe the overall shape, texture, rhythm of a political era. We'll talk about wokeness. All cops are bastards. Woke one was crazy. We'll talk about Trumpism. I was saved by God to make America great again. But getting at the overall form in which they all take place is really, really difficult. One idea for this that has taken off a bit recently that have been hearing a lot around me is hyper-politicization.

Hyper-politics is a concept from Anton Jäger. He's a historian and contributing writer at New York Times' opinion. And he's also the author of this book, "Hyper-Politics, Extreme Politicization Without Political Consequences." And what he's describing is an era in which politics feels like it is everywhere. The intensity of political opinion and commitment is really, really, really high, that things are swinging wildly from one side to the other. But things are not securely attached to political institutions and structures. And so these powerful periods of intense mobilization don't seem to have lasting consequence. I think it's a really interesting way of trying to get at what is happening behind what we're all feeling. He joins me now. Anton Jäger, welcome to the show.

安东·耶格尔:谢谢你。非常感谢你的邀请。

Original English

Anton Jäger: Thank you. Thank you for having me.

埃兹拉·克莱因:那我们就从最基础的地方开始谈起吧:究竟什么是“超政治”(hyperpolitics)?

Original English

Ezra Klein: So let's just begin at the beginning. What is hyperpolitics?

安东·耶格尔:“超政治”是一个用来描述西方政治文化变迁的概念。在这一变迁中,我们在各种指标上都看到了政治活动的显著上升,无论是选民投票、抗议示威,抑或是政治暴力。

但这种政治活动的剧烈增长,并没有伴随机构和组织力量的相应增强。如果你审视工会成员数量、政党党员人数或其他公民社会组织的指标,会发现它们要么停滞不前,要么在持续衰退。我认为,这种情况在整个20世纪甚至19世纪都找不到真正贴切的历史先例。正是出于这个原因,我引入了这一概念,以试图理解这个全新且令人困惑的当下政治现实。

Original English

Anton Jäger: Hyperpolitics is a concept that describes a change in political culture in the West, in which we see an increase in political activity on a variety of metrics, whether it's voting, protest, but also political violence.

But that increase in political activity is not matched by an increasing institutional strength. So if you look at the indices of union membership, party membership, or other civil society organizations, those have stagnated or have continued to decline. And that is a situation, I think, which doesn't really have a proper precedent across the 20th century, maybe also not the 19th. And for that reason, I introduced the concept to make sense of a new, confusing political present.

去机构化的参与与政治形态的历史演变

埃兹拉·克莱因:所以你所描述的这种现状是:人们在很多时候感受到了更强烈的政治性,在某些情况下也确实参与了更多的政治行为——比如出现了像“黑人的命也是命”(Black Lives Matter)这样规模宏大的大规模抗议;但在政治现实层面,却呈现出一种“去机构化”(deinstitutionalized)的特征。人们不再像过去那样从属于政党,工会和公民社会组织也在不断衰落。因此,他们在公民层面和组织机构层面上是脱节的。这是一种在缺乏机构成员身份的情况下爆发政治活动的独特混合体。

Original English

Ezra Klein: So you're describing a situation in which people and moments feel more political in some cases. In some cases they're doing more political things. You have huge mass protests like in Black Lives Matter, but there is a deinstitutionalized reality to politics. They're not parts of parties in the way they once were, union, civic organizations are in decline. And so they're not civically or institutionally attached. It's this kind of mixture of political activity absent institutional membership.

安东·耶格尔:没错,正是这样。当然,我所讲述的是一个历史性的脉络,它建立在历史对比的基础之上。如果以我所说的“政治化程度”(politicization)和“机构化程度”(institutionalization)这两个维度为坐标轴,你也可以清晰地梳理出政治形态演进的编年史。

在20世纪,我将其概括为“大众政治”(mass politics)时期。那时的政治化程度可以非常高——尤其是在20世纪20年代和30年代——但同时它的机构化程度也极高。在那个时代,积极参与政治往往意味着你置身于某个组织机构之中。

与此相对照的是20世纪90年代至2000年代的“后政治”(post-politics)时期,正如学者们所定义的那样,这两个维度的指标当时都出现了衰退,呈现出低机构化与低政治化的双重低迷特征。

而我们今天所目睹的,确实呈现出一种奇特的“剪刀差”形态:一方面,大量的政治活动变得更加容易发起,人们也感到更有必要去践行政治;但另一方面,它完全缺乏坚实的机构化形态,因此给人一种极其短暂、缺乏连贯性的感觉。正如我的论断:这也意味着它无法像过去那样转化为切实而持久的政策后果。

Original English

Anton Jäger: That's right. Yes. And of course the story I'm telling is a historical one, and it comes with contrast. So if you're using these two axes, politicization, as I call it, and institutionalization, you can get a certain chronology of political forms as well.

So I talk about the mass politics of the 20th century, which could be highly politicized, particularly, let's say, the 1920s and the 1930s, but was also very heavily institutionalized. So to be politically active, often meant to be in an institution.

And I contrasted it also to the post-politics of the 1990s of the 2000s, as it's often called, in which you had a decline on both of those indices, so low institutionalization and low politicization.

And what we're looking at now, indeed, is this strange scissors shape, namely a lot of political activity has also become easier and it's become more necessary to pursue it, but it doesn't really have an institutional form, so it feels very inchoate. And as I claim, that also means it doesn't have as many policy consequences as it used to have.

狂热的节奏与短视的政治消费主义

埃兹拉·克莱因:我并不是想质疑你对自己概念的定义。但我总觉得这个定义似乎没有完全捕捉到某种特质,而这种特质恰恰是该概念引发广泛共鸣的关键原因——那就是“超政治”中的“超级/过度”(hyperness)特质,即事物以令人难以置信的极快速度崛起而后迅速破灭的狂热感。

就像在某一年,大家都在全身心投入“黑人的命也是命”运动和“觉醒文化”之中;转眼之间,舆论氛围似乎就完全倒向了特朗普;然后不知不觉间,情绪又再度反弹回来。似乎没有任何事情能够长久维系,但每一个当下发生的事物又显得极其至关重要。你在书中的行文风格非常深思熟虑、典雅克制,但我很想探讨这种狂热动荡的本质,而你在书中也确实对其有所描绘。

Original English

Ezra Klein: So I don't want to question your definition of your own concept. But one thing I feel like that doesn't quite pick up on, but which is part of why this idea has resonated, is the hyperness of hyper politics, this feeling of things rising and falling with incredible rapidity.

It's like one year, you're deep inside Black Lives Matter and wokeness, and then it's like the vibes have shifted to Trump and then, you know, they come all the way back. Nothing seems to last, but everything seems incredibly important. You have a very thoughtful, ironic style here, but I want to get at this kind of frenzied nature of it, which you do describe in the book.

安东·耶格尔:是的,我认为你所指出的这种动荡性(volatility)或狂热性(frenzy),恰恰是我所描述的这一现象的核心精髓。因为政治机构对政治行动究竟起到了什么作用?机构能够稳定政治行动,并在更长的时间跨度内赋予其持久的生命力。

如果你没有这些组织机构来锚定你的政治行动,同时也缺乏伴随这些机构而来的委托机制、代表机制,或者说是某种组织纪律性,那么“短视主义”(short-termism)就会成为许多政治行动的事实模式。

因为在两三周的时间里,你可以跟随媒体周期的热点,对某一个议题产生极其强烈的兴趣并投入巨大精力;但一旦该议题的关注度衰退,或者它显得不再那么紧迫,你就会迅速转向下一个热点。这里根本没有任何机构能够真正确立长期议程,帮助你提炼出一种能够将所有这些短期议题统一起来的长期政治愿景。

因此,“超政治”的“超”(hyper)既具有空间维度,也具有时间维度。在空间维度上,它能够无远弗届地迅速蔓延,汇聚成千上万的人群——在过去的10到15年里,无论是在美国还是整个西方世界,抗议活动的参与人数都屡创历史新高;但它之所以是“超”的,也在于它无法覆盖很长的时间跨度。这几乎就像是一个政治金融市场:你投资某款产品,而当你发现它的价值暴跌时,你就可以迅速抛售离场,转而奔向下一个热点议题。

Original English

Anton Jäger: Yeah, so I think the volatility or the frenzy you're pointing at is a quintessential feature of the phenomenon I'm describing, because what do institutions do with political activity? They stabilize it and they give it longevity over a longer time period.

And if you don't have these institutions to tie your political action to, and also not, let's say, the mechanisms of delegation or representation that come with these institutions, I'd say also maybe discipline. That means that short-termism is the de facto mode of a lot of political action.

Because you can be enormously interested and invested in one question for a couple of weeks, you follow the media cycle, but then once, let's say, the popularity fades or it doesn't seem as urgent, you move on to the next thing. And there's no institution that's actually there to set the agenda to help you articulate a long-term vision that might unite your politics across all these short-term issues.

So the hyper has both a spatial and a temporal side to it. Spatial insofar as it can go everywhere and it can gather loads and loads of people. I mean, there are record numbers in terms of turnout, not just in the U.S., but across the West for protests in the last 10 to 15 years, but it's also hyper in that it doesn't cover a very long time span and almost like a political market, you can invest in a product. And then when you see that its value is plunging, you can dump your shares and you can move on to the next issue.

数字技术是根本原因还是放大器?

埃兹拉·克莱因:我对这本书提出的批评之一是:你经常在书中示意或暗示某些在我看来非常显而易见的事实——那就是这本质上是数字政治、网络政治、是算法介导的政治。你在书中写道,超政治是动态的、激烈的、两极分化的,但同时在意识形态上又是涣散弥漫的,其运作模式明显效仿了网络世界的流动性。

你在书中并没有花太多篇幅去具体描述或在理论层面深入探讨网络世界的流动性。但我希望在此花些时间深入讨论这一点,因为你所描绘的政治,正是我切身感知并生活于其中的政治现实。这甚至不单纯是机构如今能做什么或不能做什么的问题,而是因为政治从根本上处于我们注意力分配的下游;而我们今天的注意力,根本上是由那些只在乎争议性、只在乎新奇感、不择手段且无休止地搜寻能激起人们情绪反应的算法所塑造的。如果你把政治建立在这种完全荒诞的注意力上层建筑之上,你得到的自然就是眼前的这一切。

Original English

Ezra Klein: One of my critiques of the book is that you often will gesture at what seems very obvious about this to me, which is that this is digital politics. This is online politics. This is algorithmically mediated politics. You write about hyperpolitics, it is dynamic, intense, and polarizing, yet also ideologically diffuse, visibly modeled on the fluidity of the online world.

You don't spend much time in the book describing or theorizing the fluidity of the online world. But I want to spend some time on it here because the politics you're describing a politics I recognize and live through. This just feels like not even what institutions are or are not able to do now, as much as politics, which is fundamentally downstream of what we pay attention to, and our attention is fundamentally shaped now by algorithms that care about controversy, that care about newness that are hunting amorally and constantly for whatever we'll get a rise out of people. And if you build politics on that completely bizarre superstructure of attention, and this is what you get.

安东·耶格尔:我大体上是同意你的看法的,而且我认为这并不必然与我所辩护的核心论点相冲突或抵触。

不过,对于许多理论观点——特别是在过去10到15年间涌现的那些观点——我持有一种审慎保留的态度。这些观点不仅赋予数字技术以主导地位,而且正如我们常说的那样,赋予了它某种“单一因果”(monocausal)的决定性角色,仿佛互联网可以解释一切。如果是那样的话,这本书就不应该叫《超政治》,而应该直接叫《高度网络化的政治》(Extremely Online Politics)了;那样一来,它就只是一本关于我们政治生活的数字化或日益数字化的著作而已。

我之所以想抵制这种概念上的扁平化坍缩,想要抵制将“超政治”单纯等同于“高度网络化政治”,是有诸多考量的。回想一下我们曾经听过的那些理论:试图将英国脱欧公投或特朗普胜选完全归因于俄罗斯水军机器人或定向投放的Facebook政治广告;当然,在“阿拉伯之春”爆发期间,也出现过所谓的“Facebook革命”理论,认为正是数字平台真正推动了这股浪潮;而最近又流行一种观点,认为社交媒体之所以扮演如此重大的角色,主要是因为它是我们唯一能集中注意力的地方。

我认为这种单一维度的解释并不具有充分的说服力。恰恰是因为,我们必须同时审视数字媒体诞生时所切入的社会土壤。社交媒体并非凭空包揽了一切作用;更确切地说,是在它所进入的公民与社会生态中,它恰好遇到了一个已经准备好在网络上如此强烈地体验政治的大众群体。

诚然,这些算法极易令人成瘾,但核心问题始终在于:为什么它能产生如此黏性?为什么人们会如此深陷其中?与此同时,抗议活动之所以爆发,很大程度上绝非仅仅源于互联网的虚妄幻觉。这些都是极其真实且极为重要的议题——无论是美国的大规模监禁、警察暴力、社会不平等,还是右翼阵营所关注的移民问题。这些绝非数字平台无中生有凭空捏造出来的产物。

我更倾向于认为,社交媒体扮演了放大镜和加速器的角色,它放大了此前就已经存在的某些趋势,但这些趋势本身的根源超越了数字技术。如果我们把一切都简化为数字技术,那么我们的讨论就仅仅局限于各大平台本身,而在我看来,这本应是一场更为宏大、宽广的社会对话。

Original English

Anton Jäger: I'm broadly in agreement, and I don't think it necessarily contradicts or is in friction with the thesis I'm defending.

I'm a bit hesitant about a lot of views, particularly in the last 10 to 15 years, that assign not just a primary, but as we say, a monocausal role to digital technology, where somehow the Internet explains everything. And then the book shouldn't have been called hyper-politics, but just extremely online politics. Then it's just a book about the digitalization or the increasingly digital nature of our political lives.

I want to resist that collapse. I want to resist equating hyperpolitics just with extremely online politics. For the reason that many of the theories we've had, let's say that tried to describe the Brexit vote or the Trump vote through something like Russian bots or bought Facebook ads, there was, of course, during the Arab Spring already a theory that these were so-called Facebook revolutions, that it was digital platforms that were really driving the upsurge. But also recently the idea that the reason social media is playing this role is primarily because it's the only thing we pay attention to.

And I don't think that's very compelling. For the very reason that you also have to pay attention to the environment in which digital media was launched. And there it's not as if social media did all the work on itself. It's more that the civic or social landscape in which it entered it found a population that was ready to experience so much of politics online.

Of course, these algorithms are addictive, but the question is always why does it stick? Why are people so taken to it? And at the same time, a lot of the reason there are protests doesn't just have to do with hallucinations online. These are very, very real and very important topics, whether it's mass incarceration or police violence in the US, let's say inequality, but surely on the right, they'd say migration. And these are not simply things that digital platforms have somehow conjured up out of nothing.

It's more that I think social media has acted as a magnifying glass and an accelerator of certain trends that came before, but which I think surpass the digital. And if we reduce everything to the digital, we are only having a conversation about platforms when I think it should be a much broader conversation.

机构内爆与数字时代的政治过激

埃兹拉·克莱因:我始终认为,关于你所说的数字技术的对话,本质上就是一场关于注意力的对话。而这场对话可以进行得富有建设性,也可以流于表面。我非常赞同你的观点:将一切简单归结为俄罗斯机器人或Facebook广告是极其荒唐的。我在2016年大选时就不相信这一套,现在更不相信。

但请允许我进一步探讨:当我提出对这本书的这一批评时,我并不是认为你在书中写错了,而只是由衷地希望书中能有专门的一章来深入探讨这个问题。

在阅读你关于组织机构的论述时,我脑海中一直在思考一个问题:我们今天所拥有的这些机构究竟正在发生什么?因为现实情况并非所有机构都已经彻底消亡,或者完全没有人再加入政党。你可以看看在美国正在蓬勃发展的“美国民主社会主义者”(DSA),它具有非常真实的机构形态;也有许多人将自己毕生的精力奉献给民主党或共和党。

但关于所有这些人——虽然不能说涵盖每一个人,但确实包括其中的许多人——我想指出的一点是:他们展现出甚至比普通人更为强烈的“超政治”倾向。不是吗?他们表现出过度沉迷于网络上所谓“当下的热点”(the current thing)的倾向,经历着不可思议的情绪波涛起伏,但随后却根本无法将这些情绪转化为长期的政治成果。他们往往会回过头去看两三年前、四五年前发生的某些近期事件,然后心想:“天哪,我们刚才到底干了些什么?”

众所周知,众议员亚历山德里娅·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯(AOC)最近接受了一次采访。在采访中,当被问到“觉醒派”的激进做法时,她谈到了当时的情境。我们来听一下这段对话:

Original English

Ezra Klein: I always think of the conversation about what you're calling digital as a conversation about attention. And you can have that conversation well or poorly. And I agree with you. Dissolving things down to Russian bots or Facebook ads is ridiculous. I didn't believe that in the 2016 election. I don't believe it now.

But let me push this a little bit. Because when I say it's my critique of the book, I don't mean I think you have it wrong in the book. I actually just wish there was a chapter on it in the book.

And one thing I was thinking about as I read the argument you were making about institutions is, well, what do I see happening with the institutions we have today? Because it's not as if all institutions are gone or nobody is part of a party. You can look at the DSA, which is rising in America and has a real institutional formation. There are people who, you know, devote their lives to the Democratic Party, to the Republican Party.

And one thing I would say about all of these people, not literally every individual, but many of them, is they exhibit the tendencies of hyper-politics even more than normal people do, right? The tendency to get overly invested in what gets called online, the current thing, to have like incredible waves of sentiment, but then not be able to kind of translate it over a long period of time. The sort of tendency to look back on something like two or three or four or five years ago, something recent and think, oh my God, what were we just doing, right?

Famously, AOC, just gave an interview, which you said, that woke one was crazy.

采访音频

  • 提问者:我这里有一位地方市议员曾说过“觉醒派简直不可理喻”。那么事实真是如此吗?这场运动在其中某些立场上是否走得太极端了?比如你曾一度支持“削减警费”(defund the police)的口号。
  • 亚历山德里娅·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯(AOC):你知道,我认为在那段时间,尤其是在新冠疫情封控期间,奥弗顿之窗(Overton window)被极大地敞开了。当时社会处于封锁停摆状态,由于封控而出现了我们前所未见的高失业率。我认为在那个关头,人们真的非常乐意敞开大门,去探讨任何一项有可能引领我们走向更好境地的政策。我甚至认为,当时所进行的那些讨论实际上是非常富有成效的。
Original English

Audio Clip:

  • Interviewer: I have a local city councilman that has this saying "woke one was crazy." Oak one was crazy. And I think that what's important is that we have to assess what... Was it? I mean, did the movement go too far with some of those positions? I mean, you briefly supported the idea of defunding the police.
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: Well, you know, I think that during this time and during, especially during COVID, there was a huge opening of the Overton window. We were shut down. There was some of the highest unemployment rates that we have seen because of those shutdowns. And I think that the doors were really open in trying to entertain any and every policy that was going to get us to a better place. And I actually think that the discussions that were had in that time were quite fruitful.

埃兹拉·克莱因:我认为她在这里所描述的,正是网络政治如何促使那些植根于现实世界的真实诉求,演化成了某种极端形式,并以一种人们事后不再愿意为其辩护的方式被表述出来。

因此,我认为两者之间存在着紧密的内在联系:即便那些身处机构内部的人、以及机构与集体的运作机制本身,也同样深陷于网络世界之中——人们在推特上相互交流、互相@、转发推文;唐纳德·特朗普通过Truth Social与整个共和党进行沟通发号施令。所以,如果把机构和数字世界视为截然割裂的两个独立领域,在我看来是不切实际的。我亲眼目睹了管理这些机构的精英们正是通过数字世界相互沟通,从而导致机构本身也陷入了同样的剧烈摇摆与前后动荡之中。

Original English

Ezra Klein: I think what she's describing there is the way online politics led ideas that are real and rooted in the real world to sort of take some forms and be expressed in ways that people no longer wish to defend.

And so the way I think there's a connection here is that the people even who are institutions and the way institutions work and collectivities work, those people are also communicating with each other online and tweeting at each other and retweeting each other. Donald Trump communicates with the Republican Party through truth social. So sort of saying there are these two spheres, institutions and the digital world, it doesn't feel real to me. I watch people who lead these institutions communicating with each other through this digital world, and thus the institutions end up in a kind of like a like the same sort of back and forth, slightly wild oscillation quality.

安东·耶格尔:是的,这一点显而易见:当代世界所特有的政治化模式,确实深刻影响了人们与组织机构建立联系和互动的方式。

在此我想指出的是,“超政治”在不同的群体中显然是以不同的节奏和速度推进的。对于职业政治从业者而言,与一位可能在好几次选举中都没有投票、也不在政治领域从事全职工作的普通选民相比,“超政治”所产生的影响显然是大相径庭的……

Original English

Anton Jäger: Yes. It's very clear that the types of politicization that are typical of the contemporary world also have an effect on how people affiliate with institutions. There I would say hyperpolitics obviously moves at different speeds in different groups. So with the political professional and the, let's say, voter who maybe hasn't voted in a couple of elections and isn't professionally involved in politics, obviously hyperpolitics is going to have very different effects.

机构衰落与政治短视

对谈者 A:所以,我们在普通人群及其态度(包括对政治的态度)中观察到的这种波动性或短视主义,在机构内部身处这些境地的人身上也能找到对应物。我相信在 AOC(亚历山大·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯)身上这是一个很鲜明的例子,但同样也可以用来论证其他几位人物。原因何在?为什么现在可以如此轻易地放弃某些立场,或者背弃几年前还言之凿凿的承诺?在许多政治选择和偏好中,似乎已经不再值得去坚守一套稳固的意识形态。

Original English

Speaker A: So, the volatility or short-termism that we observe in the general population and their attitudes, including toward politics, finds its counterpart even in individuals who find themselves inside these institutions. I believe it is illustrated very clearly in the case of AOC, but the argument can also be cited for several other figures, for the following reasons: Why is it so easy to abandon certain positions or walk away from commitments that were voiced loudly just a few years ago? Many of these political choices and preferences seem no longer anchored in a solid ideology.

对谈者 A:这一点在机构和历史维度上非常重要。在20世纪,政治派系始终拥有领袖或魅力型人物来引领他们前进。他们一直都是鲜活的个体,某些人作为党派成员的个性化色彩甚至比其他人更浓厚;但与此同时,始终存在着一套纲领,每个人都可以围绕它来调整自己的方向。而改变或放弃该纲领的某些方面,往往伴随着巨大的代价。

Original English

Speaker A: And this point is vital in both institutional and historical terms. In the 20th century, political factions always had leaders or certain charismatic figures who led them forward. They were always people who might be even more individualized as party members than others, but at the same time, there existed a program around which everyone could align and orient themselves. And altering or abandoning certain aspects of that program came with concrete political costs.

对谈者 A:在 AOC 的案例中,问题在于她虽是 DSA(美国民主社会主义者)的联络人物,但 DSA 显然并不是一个官方政党。如果从个人层面上看,背离或违背某一立场的代价似乎极低。相反,顺应潮流、在当下看似有利的决策中随波逐流,代价反而更小。这正是因为缺乏能够对个人施加约束的制度化政党结构与纲领。

Original English

Speaker A: With the AOC issue, it is about whether she acts as a liaison for DSA, yet DSA is obviously not an official political party. On an individual level, the cost of shifting away from or betraying a specific position appears minimal. Instead, going with the flow and yielding to whatever feels politically expedient in the moment carries a lower cost, precisely because there is no institutionalized party machinery or binding program to hold individuals accountable.

去机构化与集体力量的瓦解

对谈者 B:从我的视角来看,我们应该审视这个系统。我们在分析时需要保持客观专注,不要对过去的世界抱有过度模糊的怀旧情绪,哪怕直面某些现实可能会让人感到不快。这始于90年代和2000年代的社会画像:多年来,人们为摆脱旧有束缚而感到庆幸,体验到了一定程度的个人自由,正是因为这些机构不再全面主导他们的日常生活。

Original English

Speaker B: The way I see it, we should look at the system clearly. We need to stay focused without ambiguous, excessive nostalgia for how the world used to be, even if facing reality might be uncomfortable for some. It begins, of course, with the portraits from the 90s and 2000s: over those years, people felt liberated to break away from that world, enjoying a sense of individual freedom precisely because these institutions no longer held total dominance over their lives.

对谈者 B:我们无法像克隆恐龙那样,直接提取昔日政党的 DNA 并将其植入当今现实,指望它们在当前环境中重生并存活。但与此同时,显而易见的是,这本质上是一个权力问题。人们不再轻易加入机构,并非仅仅因为不想感到孤独。很多探讨社交性危机、孤独感蔓延的著作,都在试图分析这种去机构化的现象。

Original English

Speaker B: And it also stems from the realization that we cannot simply clone dinosaurs: we cannot extract the DNA of past political parties, implement them into the present, and expect them to be reborn and survive in today's environment. At the same time, it is very obvious that this is a question of power. People do not easily join institutions merely out of a desire to avoid loneliness. The books discussing the crisis of sociality and the epidemic of loneliness are attempting to analyze this very de-institutionalization.

对谈者 B:然而,除了社会化功能之外,政党也是保障集体力量的核心工具——它们是为集体行动而生的。随着人们脱离了这种全包式、沉浸式的组织生活,将个人偏好转化为集体行动的难度也大幅增加。在西方社会,政党的衰落与自下而上的大众力量的减弱是同步发生的。

Original English

Speaker B: However, beyond the element of socialization, political parties are the vehicle for ensuring collective power; they exist for collective action. As individuals move away from immersive organizational life, transforming individual preferences into effective collective action has grown vastly more complex. Across the West, the decline of political parties has marched alongside the erosion and gradient descent of popular power, especially from below.

历史上的政策变革与大众力量

对谈者 A:在1954年或1973年那个时代的美国政治中,普通人似乎更有能力将个体诉求转化为集体力量并推动政府改革。从政治学角度来看,如今民众诉求与最终政治结果之间往往呈现出负相关。在推进重大政策(如全民医保或税制改革)时,反对者常常通过恐吓手段(例如宣称“你的现有保险会消失”)来阻挠改革。相比以往时代,我们过去是否真的更擅长在政治上争取到自己想要的结果?

Original English

Speaker A: For me, sitting in that position, an American in 1954 or 1973 seemed far more capable of transforming personal policy preferences into collective power and government reform. From a political science perspective, there now seems to be a negative correlation between popular will and actual policy outcomes. When complex policies like Medicare are debated, fear campaigns—such as claiming "your insurance will disappear"—routinely derail them. Were we genuinely much better at achieving desired political outcomes in a previous era?

对谈者 B:必须记住,制度并非影响这种能力的唯一因素,还涉及国家治理能力及民意表达渠道。但可以确定的是,随着这些中介机构的衰落,推动政策变革的能力受到了显著的负面影响。回顾20世纪30至40年代的“新政”时期,美国建设现代福利国家的进程与当时强大的大众组织力量高度相关。

Original English

Speaker B: It is important to remember that institutions are not the only factor affecting this capacity; state capacity and transmission channels also play key roles. Yet undeniably, the decline of these institutions has exerted a negative impact on the capacity to achieve policy change. If we look at the New Deal era of the 1930s and 1940s, the construction of the American welfare state was clearly correlated with the mass power of that period.

对谈者 B:而在经历麦卡锡主义以及民权运动的激烈博弈之后,这种大众权力的衰退使得向美国商业阶层争取让步变得异常艰难。欧洲的经验同样表明,其普遍福利体系绝非技术官僚自发恩赐的产物,而是源于巨大的外部大众压力。欧美社会权利的建立,始终与大众力量的强弱直接挂钩。美国工会密度的断崖式下跌,与当今不平等的加剧之间存在着不可否认的深层联系。

Original English

Speaker B: Following McCarthyism and the civil rights struggles, the decline of this countervailing power made winning concessions from the American business class exceedingly difficult. In Europe, the universal welfare state was likewise not built simply by technocrats; it came about through massive popular pressure from the outside. The securing of social rights across Europe and the US has always been a function of mass power. The loss of union density in the US undeniably shares a profound relationship with skyrocketing inequality today.

制度惯性、信息过载与无力感

对谈者 A:人们普遍感到在面对政治时陷入了一种深刻的无力感。这究竟是一种心理感知,还是残酷的现实?美国政治体制长期以来对任何实质性改革都具有极强的抵制力和惰性。大萧条打破了旧有系统,并实质性瓦解了共和党的长期垄断;罗斯福之所以能够推行新政,不仅是因为工会力量的激增,更因为当时民主党在国会中拥有当今难以想象的压倒性绝对优势。

Original English

Speaker A: There is a pervasive public sense that people today feel utterly powerless against politics. Is this merely a perceptual issue, or is it reality? The American political system has historically been highly resistant to structural reform over very long periods. The Great Depression shattered the system and broke Republican dominance. FDR was able to adopt those policies not solely because of union density, but because Democrats held an overwhelming legislative majority in Congress that is unimaginable today.

对谈者 A:林登·约翰逊时期的“伟大社会”计划和普遍福利扩张,同样是在肯尼迪遇刺后的特殊政治震荡下才得以推行。在此之前,南方保守势力长期把持国会要津,阻挠议事(filibuster)几乎被专门用于封杀各项民权法案。重大历史突破往往依赖于这种极其罕见的非线性危机时刻。

Original English

Speaker A: Lyndon B. Johnson's "Great Society" and the long expansion of welfare provisions directly followed the shock of JFK's assassination. For decades prior, the civil rights movement was persistently stonewalled by Southern dominance in Congress, where the filibuster was utilized primarily to kill civil rights legislation. Meaningful progressive leaps often emerge only from rare, non-linear moments of crisis rather than ordinary procedural routine.

对谈者 B:我同意工会密度与不平等之间的因果联系依然值得深入探讨。但现实中令人瞩目的现象在于:当今公众虽然缺乏理论化的政治参与渠道,却掌握着比以往任何历史时期都多得多的世界信息。然而,这些海量信息被高度情绪化地包装与推送。

Original English

Speaker B: I agree that the precise causal mechanisms around union density and inequality can be debated. But what stands out is that, despite lacking theoretically coherent political engagement, people today know far more raw information about the world than ever before. Yet this deluge of information is framed in an increasingly emotionalized manner.

对谈者 B:一方面是人们接收到的海量信息与持续被激起的情绪反应,另一方面则是个人实际支配权力的微缩以及依托机构的极度匮乏。这种“高认知刺激”与“低行动效能”的鲜明反差,不可避免地催生了一种深刻的异化感:感觉世间万事都在未经自己同意、且自己无法施加任何影响的情况下被强行操纵和运转。

Original English

Speaker B: One suspect dynamic is the combination of how much information you absorb and how constantly you are compelled to experience acute emotional reactions, set against an actual scope of personal power and available institutions that remains extremely low. This generates a pervasive feeling that everything is moving forward and controlled entirely without your participation, consent, or ability to influence outcomes.

红蓝系统与选民政治效能感的幻灭

提问者:在如今的红蓝阵营体系下,无论你住在哪里——比如在一个深蓝州,你知道在全国大选中,你的声音几乎微不足道。同样的情况也发生在非常保守的深红州,不是吗?人人都心知肚明自己所在的州会是什么结果。那这一切还有什么意义呢?你还会去投票吗?我认为大家一直都想把这归结为个人能力或政治效能感的问题,但这真的只是个人效能感的问题吗?问题在于,你投入多少金钱去参与政治活动,与你在体制中缺席所带来的无力感相互交织、自相矛盾。

Original English

Interviewer: In the red-blue system, where do you live? In a blue state, and you know, your voice hardly matters in the national—you know, in the presidential election thing. The same thing happens in a very conservative state, doesn't it? Everyone knows how your state is going to turn out. What difference does it make? Do you vote? I think we've always wanted to frame this as an issue of personal agency, but is it really just a matter of personal agency, right? The question is how much money you put into political engagement, and then your absent agency contradicts and gives you this dilemma.

受访学者:是的,两者皆是如此。稍作调整后,我想这样来阐述:首先,我认为当下个人权力和效能感的缺失确实存在,但这并非绝对空前的现象。回看历史,比如20世纪30年代和40年代的大规模政策展开,或许在50年代初期也是如此,核军备竞赛对当时许多人而言,似乎就是一种登峰造极的无力感表达。在20世纪,正如乔治·奥威尔所言,核武器带来了极具反民主属性的垄断。所以我们不能简单地说以前就不是这样。

Original English

Scholar: Yes, both are true. With a slight modification, I would say this: First, I think the feeling of a lack of individual power is real, but it is not absolutely unprecedented. The large-scale flowering of policy in the 1930s and 1940s, and perhaps somewhat in the 1950s, marked that beginning. The nuclear arms race, to many people, seemed to be the supreme expression of powerlessness in the 20th century. As George Orwell said, it produced the most anti-democratic weapon imaginable. So one cannot say that things were not like this before.

去机构化、权力转移与自发政治意识

受访学者:我也并不想假装对当今机构进行再制度化或重组改造就能自动解决问题、让情况好转。在推行某种政治主张时,关键在于权力究竟转移到了何处,即便在国家治理层面也是如此。这就是为什么我并不认为回到五六十年代就能解决问题。例如,欧洲和美国那些未经选举产生的机构(如中央银行),今天拥有与过去同等甚至更大的权力,它们是否受到公众甚至选举压力的影响?答案显然不是简单的“是”或“否”。因此并没有现成的保证。在实现这些政治目标的过程中,需要精英阶层内部与掌握权力的广大民众之间达成某种联盟格局,只有当这种格局变得有利时,实践证明它才行得通。

Original English

Scholar: I don't want to pretend that reinstitutionalizing or reorganizing today's institutions will automatically mean things get better. In implementing a certain politics, the question also arises of where power has shifted, even at the state level. That's why I don't think simply looking back to the 50s and 60s is the answer. For instance, unelected institutions in Europe and the United States, like central banks, hold just as much power today, and whether they are subject to popular or electoral pressure in the same way is a complex question. So there is no immediate guarantee. Achieving these political outcomes requires certain constellations and coalitions between elites and popular power, and only when that constellation is favorable does it actually work.

受访学者:我认为过去二十年里大西洋两岸观察到的一个最关键的政治阻碍因素在于:大众层面的权力实质上显著减弱,尽管表面的“政治化”在不断增长。这种增长的政治化与大众权力的削弱并存,或许正解释了为什么当下推动变革变得更加艰难。

Original English

Scholar: I believe one of the most important political blockages we have observed on both sides of the Atlantic over the past 20 years is that the mass power factor has significantly decreased, even while politicization has grown. This dynamic may explain why real political breakthroughs have become so much harder.

社交媒体时代的可见度悖论与无力感循环

受访学者:面对现代政治动员中可见度的大幅提升,这里存在着一个悖论,我完全赞同这种观察。如今你可以在智能手机屏幕上实时看到各种现场画面,无论是中东的种族冲突,还是地球另一端的大规模杀戮,这极大地提高了人们的政治意识。这种体验带来了巨大的自发性,但同时也伴随着强烈的无力感和窒息感。

Original English

Scholar: When it comes to the paradox of increased visibility and modern political mobilization dynamics, I completely agree. The video content you can now stream on your smartphone screens—whether it's atrocities in the Middle East or mass violence on the other side of the planet—significantly increases political awareness. There is this spontaneous experience, but it also creates an overwhelming sense of helplessness.

受访学者:与20世纪40年代和50年代关于核军备竞赛的讨论不同,在90年代你可能只是通过阅读文字了解信息,而如今它直接全天候直播在你的客厅和手心。尤其是当你花费大量时间在社交网络上时,除了看着这些恐怖画面,你还能做什么?这极大地放大了无助感。社交网络最有趣但也最成问题的地方在于:它给你提供了一个即时的情绪出口。当你目睹极其可怕的事物时,你下意识觉得“我们必须做点什么”,于是你发帖、评论、转发。这是一种近乎没有实际政治效果的行动,但它却立刻终结了心理上的压力循环。

Original English

Scholar: The difference is that if you heard about the nuclear arms race in the 1940s and 50s, or read about it in the 90s, you read about it in print, but it wasn't broadcast live into your living room 24/7. Now, what can you actually do right in the moment, especially if you spend a lot of time on social media? It reinforces the feeling of powerlessness. An interesting aspect of social networks is how they provide an immediate, pseudo-action answer: you see something horrible, and you post, comment, or react. It produces an action with chaotic or non-existent material effects, but it immediately closes the stress cycle of feeling like you must act right now.

迷茫的精英与自下而上的极化政治

提问者:这也是为什么我更关注政治精英群体的原因之一。在这段我们所经历的当代历史中,最不寻常的现象之一就是:精英阶层本身比任何人都更加困惑迷茫。回顾沃尔特·李普曼在1922年左右出版的《舆论学》(Public Opinion),他探讨了我们头脑外部的世界与头脑内部构想的世界之间的落差——我们关于现实的认知往往充满偏差。李普曼当时提出的方案是依赖一群掌握专业知识的技术官僚精英。然而这一方案显而易见是失败的,因为它预设了精英本身不会陷入迷茫。但现实中,没有人比唐纳德·特朗普或埃隆·马斯克等人对社交网络信息更加沉迷和困惑。对那些把政治当作日常业务的人来说,普通民众不断向他们寻求指引、询问该如何站队与表态,而他们往往反而是最糟糕的指路人,因为他们自己早已深陷这种极度焦虑的信息洪流之中。

Original English

Interviewer: That's one of the reasons why I focus so much on the political elite. One of the unusual things across this historical era is that the elites are more confused than anyone else. Let's look back at Walter Lippmann's Public Opinion, published around 1922. Lippmann's diagnosis was that the world outside and the pictures in our heads are always misaligned. His answer was that technocratic elite groups who knew everything should manage things. That answer failed because it assumed the elites wouldn't be confused. But today, nobody is more disoriented by social media than figures like Donald Trump or Elon Musk. Ordinary people turn to them asking for advice on what to do and where to align, but these elites are often the worst people to ask because they are the most driven mad by 24/7 political attention.

受访学者:是的,这也是这本书从底层视角切入的原因。它不仅面向左翼,而且描述了通过互联网表达政治观点所带来的成本骤降。过去当你目睹不公或道德丑闻时,你可能需要给报社写读者来信、联络地方政党负责人,或者亲自站到公共广场上抗议呐喊;现在你可以极其廉价、轻松地在网上发声。然而随之而来的问题是:政治表达的边际收益递减。发声变得轻而易举,但它推动社会实质变革的能力却被稀释了。

Original English

Scholar: Yes, the book is written from below in the sense that it describes the consequences of drastically lowering the cost of political expression via the internet. In the past, if you encountered an obvious injustice or moral scandal, you had to write a letter to the editor, contact local party leadership, or stand in the center of a public square and shout. Today, you can express yourself politically far more cheaply and easily, but that brings diminishing returns. It looks easy, but what are the actual material consequences for social change?

特朗普、马斯克与统治阶级内部团结的瓦解

受访学者:如果我们从社会上层阶级的角度来审视,这种极端的碎片化与去机构化同样存在。在特朗普第二任期的运作方式中,其短视主义以及缺乏长远规划的倾向,充分展示了各精英派系之间的不协调与制度化瓦解。即使对于真正掌握权力的人而言,后果也是严重的。比如埃隆·马斯克近期的言行表现得极其具有攻击性。当人们看到一个坐拥巨额财富与权力的人认为自己有权肆意操纵国家政治时,自然会引发巨大的反感。马斯克在面对媒体质疑时声称:“有数亿人在关注我,喜欢我的人远比讨厌我的人多,而且公众更痛恨的是你们这些主流媒体。”随后他甚至在自己的社交平台上对记者进行人身攻击。这两位同属统治阶级代表的人物在公共领域公开撕破脸皮、互相攻讦,这在过去是罕见的。在通常情况下,人们期望看到统治阶级内部某种程度的阶级团结与联合项目,但如今欧美精英阶层四分五裂,缺乏在社会、产业和地域利益之间进行协调的制度机制。网络世界的极化进一步加剧了这种短视,使得他们根本无法从长远角度思考自身的整体利益。

Original English

Scholar: Looking at the upper class, we see a parallel dynamic of extreme politics and deinstitutionalization. The Trump administration's second-term governance style—its short-termism and inability or unwillingness to plan—reflects how different elite factions are fragmented. Consider the striking example of Elon Musk's recent aggressive posture. People look at the richest individual wielding immense power and assuming the right to steer national politics, which generates intense public backlash. When questioned about this, Musk retorted that a quarter-billion people follow him, claiming more people love him and despise the mainstream media, before openly insulting interviewers on his own platform. What is most remarkable is seeing two representatives of the elite class screaming at each other in the public sphere. Normally, one would expect a degree of class solidarity and joint long-term projects among elites. Instead, particularly in the US and Europe, elites lack coordinating institutions across sectors and regions. Online polarization reinforces this, preventing them from acting in their own collective long-term self-interest.

提问者:你在《新左翼评论》(New Left Review)上写过关于唐纳德·特朗普与精英阶层的分析。你在文章中提到,一些左翼内部人士原本预期埃隆·马斯克与《经济学人》主编之间会存在某种阶级团结,但现实中美国精英阶层内部却极度分散对立,CEO与媒体之间常常处于敌对甚至公开叫板的剑拔弩张状态。请谈谈你对这种精英内部团结缺失的看法。回顾麦卡锡主义时期,难道精英政治不一直都充斥着激烈的派系竞争吗?

Original English

Interviewer: You wrote an insightful piece in New Left Review exploring this dynamic around Donald Trump. You noted that some left analysts expected an automatic class solidarity between figures like Elon Musk and the editors of The Economist. Yet in reality, the American elite is highly fragmented, with CEOs and media figures frequently locked in bitter, hostile disputes. What is your intuition about this current absence of elite solidarity compared to previous eras? For example, during McCarthyism, wasn't elite politics always fiercely competitive rather than monolithically unified?

精英阶层派系斗争的历史演变与24小时新闻周期的短视政治

受访学者:认为精英阶层必然天然具备某种一致的阶级本能与同情,这种看法确实过于粗糙了。事实上,精英之间的竞争与分裂在美国历史上是普遍现象,因为美国幅员辽阔,涵盖了极其多样且相互竞争的经济行业,很难将所有精英整合进单一的组织架构中。在美国历史上,乃至更广阔的全球范围内,精英阶层真正展现出高度内部团结的时期,往往是对抗工人阶级运动或在冷战时期推行反共主义与里根主义打压劳工时。当这些外部对抗减弱时,精英内部的派系争斗便会再次显现。然而,过去十年间社会的极端极化达到了前所未有的程度,给民粹主义提供了巨大的推行动力。

Original English

Scholar: Assuming that there must be an automatic class instinct and natural alignment among all elites is a crude generalization. Elite competition and fragmentation have historically been the norm rather than the exception, especially in a country as large and economically diverse as the United States. The only periods in American and modern global history where genuine elite unity existed were when they organized against a common challenge—namely the working class, through anti-communism or the Reagan-era suppression of the labor movement. Once those pressures subside, factional infighting emerges. Over the past decade, however, society has become exceptionally polarized, providing immense momentum to populist crosscurrents.

受访学者:回到对特朗普第二任期的观察,虽然目前仍带有一定的推测性质,但任何关注过去两年政治动态的人都能感受到它与以往历任美国总统的显著差异。其中最突出的一点就是极端的短视主义——决策完全被困在24小时的新闻周期内。许多重大政治决策似乎仅仅基于它们在接下来的媒体传播周期中的可预测效应及其受关注度。这并不意味着特朗普身边缺乏具有宏大构想的幕僚(无论是卢比奥还是科尔比,他们都有重塑新世纪美国霸权的战略构想),但特朗普对待这些政策建议的方式,完全取决于其媒体影响力和短期的公众关注度:“如果我宣布打击某个国家,接下来的24小时新闻头条是否会被我占据?”随后在接下来的48小时内,他们又会转向完全不同的议题。这种现象不仅是特朗普个人的性格特征,更是更广泛的制度困境的表征——当执政集团退化为少数脱离大众政党根基、仅依附于个人意志的小圈子时,政府便失去了进行跨越数周乃至数月长远规划的制度能力。

Original English

Scholar: Focusing on Trump's second term, while some observations remain speculative, anyone following media and social platforms over the past two years can see a clear departure from previous administrations. The defining characteristic is an acute short-termism, completely tethered to the 24-hour news cycle. Major political decisions appear to be made almost entirely based on their immediate media impact and perceived viral popularity. It is not that Trump lacks ideological factions around him—figures like Rubio or Colby have explicit blueprints for restoring American hegemony in the new century—but Trump evaluates these proposals through the lens of immediate media dominance: "Will this capture the next 24 hours of news coverage if I threaten action against this country?" Then, 48 hours later, attention pivots to a completely different issue. This personalization and volatility is symptomatic of a broader institutional crisis, where governance is reduced to a narrow faction detached from stable mass-party structures, leaving the administration incapable of formulating coherent policies looking even a week or two ahead.

短期主义、政治波动与新媒体生态

主持人:向前看,我认为这是一种鲜明的对比。在中国共产党的领导下,五年规划可以着眼长远;而在西方做决策时,周期往往被压缩到极短的时间。如果说有什么核心问题的话,那就是政治变得极度聚焦于眼下的具体时刻与公众互动。围绕特朗普的核心圈子里有许多关键人物,比如J·D·万斯(J.D. Vance)、马可·卢比奥(Marco Rubio)、斯蒂芬·米勒(Stephen Miller)等。实际上,他们并非纯粹的短期思考者。从意识形态层面来看,他们所有人都在思考长远视角,其思考深度甚至超过了许多传统政治精英。乔·拜登在执政末期也是如此,他的支持者辩护称他的各项法案和战略规划是以数十年为尺度来衡量的。然而不幸的是,选举周期的现实摆在面前,短短几年就会发生政权更迭。因此问题在于:特朗普这种古怪多变的风格究竟预示着未来的趋势,还是反映了当下正在发生的现实?这种由网络算法和社交媒体驱动的去机构化短期模式,是否意味着他就像一根与未来共振的音叉?我们在英国也看到类似现象,首相和内阁大臣更迭极其频繁,仿佛政治体系内存在着巨大的波动性,而这种波动性并没有以同样的方式影响中国。所以我想请教您,在多大程度上这种短期模式是一种结构性的必然?您认为这种带有鲜明个人特质的“特朗普主义”,究竟只是特定类型人物的产物,还是整个体制为了适应新型传播技术而经历的一个调整期?

Original English

Host: Looking forward, I mean, it is a stark contrast. Under the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party, five-year projects and long-term planning can be looked at, whereas in our decision-making, I mean, it's measured day by day. If there is a fundamental issue, it is being hyper-focused on the specific moment and human interactions. People around him, many key figures often commented on—J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, Stephen Miller—they are actually not purely short-term thinkers. All of them consider things from a long-term perspective and think ideologically, perhaps more so than other political elites. Joe Biden at the end of his administration, one of the things his defenders said was that his plans were measured in decades, but unfortunately, elections and political turnover happen just a few years later. So the question is whether Trump's erratic nature is a harbinger of what is to come, or what is actually happening in the short term—this deinstitutionalization driven by online algorithms and emerging dynamics, where he acts like a tuning fork vibrating to the future. Or not. Looking at Great Britain, they have been changing Prime Ministers and cabinet ministers at an incredible speed, showing massive volatility that doesn't affect China in the same way. So yes, I would like to know your thoughts on how much of this short-term approach is structural, and to what extent Trumpism and the characteristics of this specific type of figure are merely an adaptation to a new technological and media landscape.

学者 / 嘉宾:这个讨论充满了隐喻,但我认为可以从达尔文式的进化论视角来解释:一方面是行动者与观念,另一方面是他们所处的环境。显然,环境已经发生了根本性的变化,改变了历史的结构以及我们讲述叙事的方式。然而,确实存在某种特定类型的人物,能够在这种全新的生态环境中真正茁壮成长,而特朗普正是典型的代表。在我看来,他的个人特质非常关键。从媒体演变的角度来看,他经历了截然不同的媒体时代:他在80年代、90年代和2000年代是电视名人与真人秀主持人,随后他又极其自然地过渡到了算法与社交网络的时代。但显而易见的是,对于卢比奥和万斯这样的人来说,意识形态反而成了一种负担。而特朗普恰恰没有任何意识形态包袱,这倒不是说他什么都不相信,而是因为意识形态本身是一种过滤和规范决策的框架,而他完全不受这种框架的约束。他最首要的关注点在于其他维度,这使得他成为一个纯粹的表演艺术家,也正是他能够赢得两次大选的关键所在。像万斯这样的人,虽然带有机遇主义色彩,但他对意识形态理念本身更感兴趣,想要撰写书籍、讲述自己的思想转变过程并阐明自己的世界观。但我并不确信这种诉求对于现代媒体环境下注意力高度分散、摇摆不定的成年选民来说,是否能像特朗普纯粹的表演那样具有说服力。欧洲也有一些政客试图模仿特朗普的风格,但都步履维艰。这说明特朗普展现出的特质具有某种独特的技艺甚至“手工艺”属性。

Original English

Guest: Yes, I mean, this is rich with metaphors, but I think there is a Darwinian explanation: you have the agents and ideas, and you have the environment. And the environment, obviously, has changed, thereby structuring history and the stories we tell. But there does seem to be a specific type or archetype that truly thrives in this new environment, and Trump is the prime example. In my view, this is quite personal to him. In terms of media modes, he lived through different eras: he was a creature of television, a reality show host in the 80s, 90s, and 2000s, and then, I think, he transitioned effortlessly into the era of algorithms and social networks. But it is clear that in the case of Rubio and Vance, ideology is actually a burden. Precisely because Trump is unburdened by ideological beliefs—which doesn't necessarily mean he believes in nothing—ideology does not act as a filtering framework for his decisions. Other priorities stand at the forefront for him. This is what enables him to be a consummate showman and performer, and that is why he was able to win two presidential elections. When looking at someone like Vance, you sense that while there is opportunism, he is genuinely invested in ideological concepts, wants to write books, recount his conversion, and articulate a coherent worldview. I am not convinced that his appeal to modern, media-saturated, volatile voters will be anywhere near as compelling as the address of the performer himself. Several European politicians have also tried following the Trump style, but it is very difficult. This suggests there is a distinct personal skill or almost craft quality to what he exhibits.

MAGA运动的性质:大众政治还是脆弱的媒体奇观?

主持人:这就引出了一个关于结构与行动之间关系的问题。特朗普本人固然是一个罕见的个案,但“让美国再次伟大”(MAGA)运动本身具有其广泛性。对于许多支持者来说,MAGA提供了一种真正的精神归属和生活世界:它包含特定的观念,伴随着与其相关的制度和领袖人物,能够赋予人们生活的意义,并汇聚成热烈的政治集会。在某种意义上,它比我们看到的现代政治产物更接近过去时代的群众政治。所以从您的角度来看,MAGA究竟是一种被过度政治化的传统群众动员,还是某种全新政治形态的到来?您如何看待美国当下的这一政治现实?

Original English

Host: This brings up the question of structure versus concurrent agency. Trump himself is a rare case, but the MAGA movement has its own distinct characteristics as a broader movement in which many of his followers genuinely live. There are real ideas embedded in it, an increasing number of associated institutions, and leaders tied to it. You can live inside that world; it provides meaning, and it organizes massive rallies. In a way, it resembles an older era of mass politics far more than anything else we see today. So from your perspective, is MAGA an over-politicized mass movement, or is it the advent of something fundamentally new? How do you assess what is happening right now in the American landscape?

学者 / 嘉宾:这是一个非常深刻且棘手的问题,因为特朗普的第一任期和第二任期显然截然不同。在我看来,特朗普的第二任期具有显著的制度化特征。在赢得第一次大选时,他本人以及他周围的团队对最终获胜感到措手不及;但第二次大选完全不同,比如传统基金会的“2025计划”(Heritage Project 2025)充分证明他们做好了更周全的准备,并且有一个正在自觉推进的制度化项目。关于MAGA是否属于20世纪意义上的极右翼大众政治,这一争论实际上也关乎人们对“特朗普是否是法西斯主义者”的辩论。特朗普的第二任期与第一任期相比,确实在推动国家安全机器的重组,例如将美国移民及海关执法局(ICE)进一步武装化,并试图打造一支坚定效忠、高度依赖国家财政资助的支持者基本盘。这种准军事化组织的色彩确实容易让人联想到20世纪历史上的法西斯政治组织。但与此同时,核心问题依然在于:是否存在脱离了特朗普本人的“特朗普主义”?像塔克·卡尔森(Tucker Carlson)或玛乔丽·泰勒·格林(Marjorie Taylor Greene)以及早期特朗普拥护者,如今自视为运动的继承者,并试图偏离传统共和党正统。但我并不确信除了少数播客和自媒体渠道之外,他们是否拥有扎实的机构结构来支撑这一提议。共和党并没有真正转变为一个具有深度参与度的大众会员制政党;许多移民执法人员的加入并非出于强烈的意识形态认同,而是看中了国家安全部门带来的经济利益与财政机会。一旦中期选举失利或下一次大选发生变数,这种模式能否长期维系仍是未知数。20世纪的成熟政党可以耐心等待5年、10年乃至20年的周期伺机而动,但MAGA极度依赖于短暂、善变且脆弱的现代媒体周期,这使得它既容易迅速崛起,也同样容易迅速崩溃。

Original English

Guest: I find this very interesting and challenging, because Trump's first term and second term are visibly distinct. I truly believe that Trump's second term is far more institutionalized. During his first election victory, he and his entourage were genuinely surprised that they won in the end. That was not the case the second time. Initiatives like the Heritage Foundation's Project 2025 testify to how much better prepared they were, with a deliberate project of institutionalization being executed. The question of whether MAGA constitutes a mass movement akin to 20th-century right-wing mass politics directly intersects with the ongoing debate over whether Trump is a fascist. In his second term compared to the first, we see the partial transformation of the security state—for instance, turning ICE into an armed instrument and attempting to build a solid base of loyal supporters tied to state funding. Such militarized organizational structures do remind one of 20th-century political formations commonly associated with fascist politics. Yet at the same time, the persistent question is whether Trumpism can survive without Trump. There is the issue of figures like Tucker Carlson or Marjorie Taylor Greene and early loyalists who view themselves as the continuation of the movement while breaking away from orthodox Republican party lines. I am simply not convinced that, outside of a few podcasts and media outlets, they possess the institutional infrastructure to sustain this project. The Republican Party has not transformed into a mass-membership party. The recruitment of many ICE agents seems far less dependent on ideological conviction than on financial incentives and employment opportunities provided by the security state. If they lose midterm elections or future contests, I am not sure this configuration can endure over the long haul. A 20th-century party could bide its time across cycles of 5, 10, or 20 years before striking. MAGA, heavily reliant on fickle modern media cycles, can rise just as quickly as it can fall.

制度僵化、否决政治与权力的悖论

主持人:我们在讨论中提到了机构的问题,但之前可能更多关注的是民间社会机构的僵化与石化。我认为这里还存在一个同样关键的维度,那就是国家治理体制与政府机构本身的僵化。这或许正好呼应了您刚才关于政治体系稳定性的论述。不仅是行政权力,几乎在任何现代治理形态中都存在这种困境:在美国,我们面临着极度分裂的党派政治,跨党派妥协的空间越来越小,制度性的阻碍和否决点不断增加,通过重要立法法案的能力随着时间推移严重萎缩。即便有法案勉强通过——比如由商会推动的基础设施法案——它在解决移民等深层危机上依然无济于事,大量政策最终被拖入漫长的司法诉讼。在欧洲,普遍的共识也认为欧盟机制造成了行动迟缓与科层脱节,权力在远离公众的地方运作。这是否解释了为什么大量政治能量正在涌入话语空间、媒体出版物和即时宣泄的舆论场?因为在话语场中表达不需要克服漫长复杂的制度阻力,能够给参与者提供即时的反馈与成就感。这在很大程度上反映了公众对现存机构深重的挫败感。现行机构历史悠久、程序繁琐,需要平衡各方错综复杂的利益,在其中推进改革极其艰难。金钱在政治中的声音固然很大,但我一直认为其真实效力被外界夸大了——在很多时候,巨额政治献金并不能轻易兑现预期的政治目标。像乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)这样投入数以百万计资金的人,尽管在阴谋论者眼中仿佛掌控一切,但从宏观政治走向来看,其真实掌控力其实非常有限。然而在精英层面,超级政治行动委员会和无限度竞选支出的合法化,加上日益庞大的游说网络,确实让富裕阶层更容易施加影响。这就构成了一个悖论:社会底层自下而上的变革变得寸步难行,而精英阶层自上而下的政策推进也同样陷入泥潭。

Original English

Host: One thing we touched on earlier was institutions, but we were primarily speaking about civil institutions becoming petrified. I think there is also the issue of how governing institutions and government itself have become rigidified. This perhaps connects back to what you mentioned about how systems might achieve greater stability. In my view, it is not merely about an isolated branch of power, but the general form of government: in the United States, we have intensely divided politics, shrinking opportunities for bipartisan compromise, mounting veto gates, and a diminishing capacity to pass significant legislative bills over time. Even when major bills do pass—like infrastructure legislation pushed with the Chamber of Commerce—they lead nowhere when it comes to resolving contentious issues like immigration, and much of governance ends up bogged down in the courts. In Europe, the widespread perception is that the European Union creates sluggishness and exercises distant power over daily life. I wonder if the migration of political energy into public discourse, publishing, and media commentary is driven by the fact that discourse requires far less institutional friction and delivers immediate responses. It seems to reflect profound frustration with what can actually be achieved through formal institutions, which are ancient, cumbersome, and bound to balance competing interests. Money in politics can be very loud, but I often think its decisive impact is overstated compared to human agency, because money frequently fails to achieve its intended political objectives in America and elsewhere. Figures like George Soros spend millions, yet looking at the broader political trajectory, he clearly does not possess the total control attributed to him by conspiracy theorists. Nevertheless, at the elite level, the legalization of unlimited campaign expenditures and the growth of lobbying have made it easier for elites to assert their interests. This presents a paradox: meaningful social change has become impossible from below, yet execution has also become remarkably difficult from above.

学者 / 嘉宾:这是一个需要深入剖析的历史谜题。我认为去机构化的历史进程不仅深刻重塑了社会,也深刻侵蚀了国家机器本身。自20世纪80年代和90年代以来的体制调整,通常被归入“新自由主义”的宏大叙事中,但在我看来,其内在逻辑要深远得多。一方面,这场变革对被视为经济复苏障碍的既有机构(尤其是被指责引发通货膨胀的工会组织)发起了协调一致的削弱与瓦解,试图通过消除这些中介组织来恢复所谓的“经济常态”;但另一方面,在国家层面,权力被系统性地转移到非民选的官僚与技术官僚机构手中(例如独立中央银行的设立),其初衷美其名曰是为了超越党派与阶级利益维护“全体公共利益”,使其免受大众民主和特定精英派系的政治压力。这种制度设计产生了两重深远后果:它一方面将政策制定与民意压力隔绝开来(尽管精英群体依然享有更多的游说通道,但也绝非畅通无阻);另一方面,它极大地推高了你刚才提到的“否决权机制”(Veto Points)的吸引力。当公众和政治力量意识到无法通过正规制度渠道实现诉求时,唯一的手段就变成了启动“紧急制动开关”去行使否决权——哪怕我们无法建设自己想要的东西,至少要全力阻止我们反对的事情发生。这种防御性的否决逻辑在社会大众阶层中变得极具吸引力。但单纯消除这些否决点并不能解决根本问题,因为否决权的泛滥本身就是旧制度功能失调的直接产物。如果将西方体制与中国相比,若脱离中国共产党的领导和组织架构,单纯讨论中国的国家能力与发展机遇将毫无意义。在西方体制下,国家机构在整合精英派系与公众意愿方面的功能已经高度紊乱,公众对治理效能充满悲观。正是在这种体制陷入半瘫痪、常规治理举步维艰的背景下,特朗普以一种奇特的方式登上政治舞台:他能够把打破体制的过程包装成一场盛大的政治真人秀,签署各项声称废除出生公民权等激进举措的行政命令并直接抛向狂热的集会人群,宛如世界摔角娱乐(WWE)的赛场表演,从而在视觉和情感上满足了大众对冲破制度牢笼的渴望。

Original English

Guest: This is indeed a deeper historical riddle that warrants thorough investigation. The history of deinstitutionalization has affected society, but it has also profoundly transformed the state itself. The structural realignments of the 1980s and 1990s are often narrated simply as neoliberalism, but the underlying shift goes much deeper. On the one hand, there was a concerted assault on institutions deemed impediments to economic recovery—especially labor unions, which were blamed for inflation—asserting that they had to be dismantled to restore economic normalcy. On the other hand, at the state level, there was a deliberate transfer of authority toward unelected, non-majoritarian technocratic institutions. Central banks were declared independent to manage the economy supposedly in the neutral interest of all, explicitly insulated from democratic and elite political interference. Crucially, this mechanism accomplished two things: it detached governance from popular and elite pressures (though elites naturally retain greater access, it is far from seamless), and simultaneously, it vastly amplified the appeal of the veto options you described. When people realize they cannot achieve substantive policy goals through existing institutional channels, the default strategy becomes creating emergency switches and veto gates—stopping what they oppose even if they cannot build what they desire. This veto mindset has become immensely appealing across broad swathes of society. Merely eliminating veto gates will not solve the underlying crisis, because the reliance on vetoes is a symptom of institutional dysfunction. When compared with China, analyzing developmental capacity without the central role of the Chinese Communist Party would be meaningless. In Western systems, the capacity to aggregate elite factions and public opinion has fractured, breeding profound governance pessimism. In this context, Trump's ascendancy represents a peculiar phenomenon: he stages a spectacular show of shattering the gridlocked system, signing sweeping executive orders—such as attempting to revoke birthright citizenship—and tossing them into the crowd like a WWE spectacle, creating the visceral illusion of decisive action where normal institutions have failed.

行政权力的失控与国家能力的幻象

Guest: 特朗普试图打破行政国家的枷锁,但事实证明他并未真正破解其中的制度密码。与前几任总统相比,他在通过常规法律程序推进议程方面所取得的实质立法成果其实更少,其推行的大量行政举措最终都在联邦法院搁浅。像“政府效率部”(DOGE)这样的尝试,在初期往往展现出惊人的势头并迅速推进,但一段时间后便陷入停滞甚至彻底崩溃。他似乎总是被接踵而至的现实事件所裹挟——例如卷入针对伊朗的冲突与战争升级,而这些局面显然并非他所能掌控。

Original English

Guest: Trump attempted to take on administrative functions, but as it turned out, he couldn't really crack the code. He passed fewer formal laws than many other recent presidents, and a large portion of what he attempted to do ended up tied down or reversed in the courts. Initiatives like DOGE move initially with tremendous momentum and acceleration, but after a short while, they run into structural walls and begin falling apart. He appears perpetually caught off guard and buffeted by unfolding crises. He gets dragged into escalations with Iran, which are clearly outside of his deliberate control.

Guest: 因此,人们不禁要问:除了特朗普所制造的这一整套政治奇观与注意力轰炸之外,在底层究竟发生了什么?对于普通公众而言,生活真的发生改变了吗?物价和生活成本下降了吗?美国的治理状况变好了吗?是否真的有人在掌控全局?答案依然是否定的。如今唐纳德·特朗普仿佛在各种会议中昏昏欲睡,而在即将到来的中期选举中,他们很可能会遭遇挫败。这种普遍的无力感表明,既没有人真正掌控大局,也没有现成的机制能够扭转这种失控。

Original English

Guest: So beyond the sheer spectacle Trump generates, what is actually happening beneath the surface? For the general public, has anything fundamentally changed for the better? Have prices and the cost of living actually come down? Is the state coping effectively? Is anyone genuinely in control of the situation? Once again, the answer is no. Now you see Donald Trump appearing disengaged, drifting off during high-level meetings, while their coalition faces real risks in the midterms. There is a pervasive sense that nobody is truly at the wheel, yet no alternative faction has a coherent grip on power either.

西方的政治极化与体制合法性困境

Host: 这里似乎存在一个深刻的两难困境:西方世界正处于一种极其动荡甚至危险的政治极化与“超级政治”状态之中,但非自由主义体制也同样面临着严峻的系统性挑战。例如,中国的工业与技术发展极其迅速,带给西方的竞争压力与日俱增;然而面对这种外部冲击,西方体系却并不清楚应当如何有效应对。西方政客虽然在个人层面表现得极为活跃,各种争论与政策提案层出不穷,但最终却普遍缺乏将其转化为长期战略承诺与具体落地的执行力。

Original English

Host: There seems to be a real dilemma here. The West appears to be locked in a volatile political state that feels inherently precarious, yet illiberal regimes outside the West have not solved these systemic governance dilemmas either. China is advancing at rapid speed, ramping up systemic pressure on the West, yet Western leaders seem at a loss regarding how to coordinate an effective response. While politicians in the West are personally very active and full of policy talk, there is a distinct lack of institutional capacity to follow through and deliver tangible, long-term strategic action.

Guest: 确实如此。如果从“输入合法性”(input legitimacy)与“输出合法性”(output legitimacy)的框架来看,非自由主义国家并不具备西方意义上的选举参与机制作为输入合法性来源。然而,正如我们所见,像反清零抗议等事件依然促使决策层迅速调整政策,表明其体系内部存在特定的反馈与自我修正张力。而在西方,尽管选民投票率在激增,参与热情高涨,但这种输入合法性却日益脱离实质的治理产出与国家能力,导致公众对制度效能产生深层怀疑。

Original English

Guest: Yes, exactly. If we frame this in terms of input and output legitimacy, non-liberal regimes lack formal democratic electoral mechanisms as their source of input legitimacy. Yet, as demonstrated during the COVID policy reversals, public protests still forced leadership to rapidly reconsider its trajectory, showing distinct internal boundary negotiations. In parts of the West, we are witnessing a surge in electoral turnout and participatory noise—an explosion of input—yet it fails to translate into effective governance, leaving the state incapable of meeting baseline structural demands.

欧洲精英的战略瘫痪与制度赤字

Guest: 面对来自外部的激烈地缘政治与经济竞争——无论是中国的产业崛起,还是特朗普关税政策所施加的单边压力——欧洲精英阶层完全处于一种无所适从的状态。虽然市面上流传着若干份重振竞争力的战略报告,但缺乏能够落地的具体方案,更缺乏能够将分散派系凝聚起来、为2020年代欧洲提供全面重启的制度基础设施。

Original English

Guest: When confronted with direct challenges—such as intensifying competition from China or the geopolitical and economic shock of Trump's tariff offensive—European elites are completely adrift, searching in vain for coherent answers. There are plenty of policy papers and proposals circulating, but there is no executable blueprint. Crucially, Europe lacks the institutional infrastructure required to align conflicting factions and deliver a structural reset for the 2020s.

Guest: 具有讽刺意味的是,像我这样持有左翼立场的观察者,如今却不得不对建制派精英喊话:“请你们振作起来,构建起能够协调各方行动的制度能力。”回顾欧洲过去几十年的政策轨迹,这种精英治理的制度赤字已经变得尤为刺眼。

Original English

Guest: The strange paradox of our moment is that from a left-wing perspective, one finds oneself urging the technocratic elite: "Please get your act together and build the institutional capacity necessary to coordinate your warring factions." Reflecting on European policymaking over the past decade, this institutional atrophy and paralysis among leadership has become glaringly obvious.

从后政治、反政治到超级政治的历史演进

Guest: 理解我们当前处境的一种方法,是回顾大众政治演进的几个历史阶段。首先是相对平静的1990年代“后政治”(post-politics)时代——在比尔·克林顿和托尼·布莱尔的领导下,伴随着冷战结束与“历史终结论”,政治被去意识形态化,沦为纯粹的行政与经济管理,人们普遍认为重大意识形态冲突已经终结。

Original English

Guest: One way to map this trajectory is to look at the historical progression of mass politics. We had the placid "post-political" consensus of the 1990s—under figures like Bill Clinton and Tony Blair—where, with the fall of communism and the proclaimed "end of history," politics was depoliticized into technocratic administration, and ideological conflict was declared obsolete.

Guest: 随后是2008年全球金融危机之后爆发的“反政治”(anti-politics)浪潮——例如“占领华尔街”运动和“茶党”运动。这一时期的核心特征是对政治本身的普遍厌恶与排斥,人们拒绝既有的建制框架与传统政治形式,试图通过自发抗议来瓦解既有权威,但并未构建起持久的替代组织。

Original English

Guest: Then came the post-2008 financial crisis era of "anti-politics"—manifested in movements like Occupy Wall Street and the Tea Party. This phase was defined by a visceral hostility toward politics as such, rejecting established political parties and institutions entirely, yet failing to build durable organizational alternatives to replace them.

Guest: 而我们如今所身处的,则是“超级政治”(hyperpolitics)时代。它的特征是政治化程度的极度膨胀与碎片化扩散:一切日常议题都被高度意识形态化,充满愤怒、宣泄与破坏性冲动,但在面对僵化的官僚体系时,却无法凝聚成持久的制度性力量来推进实质变革。无论是关于移民、对外贸易还是对华关系的争论,都被卷入了无休止的文化战与数字狂欢之中。在美国,我们既看到了DSA等激进左翼力量的活跃,也见证了MAGA运动的狂热动员。这种充满活力的政治参与固然存在,但核心问题在于:这种高度情绪化、碎片化的能量是否仅仅会停留在破坏与虚无主义层面,而无法沉淀为构建崭新、持久制度的力量?

Original English

Guest: Today, we inhabit the era of "hyperpolitics." It is characterized by an intense, ubiquitous politicization that is fundamentally disruptive yet organizational shallow. While people are hyper-aware and every cultural marker becomes ideologically charged, this energy collides with an ossified bureaucracy incapable of translation into structural change. Everything from immigration to trade policy with China becomes intensely polarized. We see flashes of mobilization—from the resurgence of the American left around the DSA and Mamdani to the populist right. Yet the decisive question remains: will this hyper-politicization exhaust itself in nihilistic disruption, or can it generate the institutional muscle required to build something lasting?

葛兰西的怪物时刻与政治素养的觉醒

Host: 这让人联想到你在书中使用过的达尔文式演化比喻——当前的混乱是否正是旧秩序瓦解、新秩序重构过程中不可避免的阵痛?从加拿大到欧洲,旧有的治理模式正在崩溃,我们处于充满不确定性的过渡期。正如人们经常引用葛兰西的名言:“旧世界正在死去,新世界尚未诞生,在这个过渡期中会出现形形色色的病态与怪物。”我们是否必须经历这轮烈火的淬炼?

Original English

Host: This brings us back to the evolutionary metaphor you invoked earlier: is this friction a necessary crucible for renewal? Across Canada, Europe, and beyond, old models are breaking down, leaving us in a turbulent interregnum. As the popular Gramsci quote goes, "The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters." Are we simply condemned to pass through this trial by fire before anything coherent emerges?

Guest: 葛兰西当年在法西斯主义统治下的意大利所目睹与经历的正是那种历史裂变。我并不认为我们今天处于革命前夜的极端状态,但我们确实站在一个必须做出根本性制度抉择的关键节点。

Original English

Guest: That was indeed the situation Gramsci was living through and analyzing in interwar Italy. While I don't believe we are currently in a pre-revolutionary scenario, we are undeniably at a juncture that forces structural choices, particularly for the left.

Guest: 与此同时,超级政治并非全无积极意义。它在客观上大幅提升了大众的“政治素养”(political literacy)。如今越来越多的人深刻意识到,自己日常生活中的切身处境——无论是高昂的房租、恶劣的基础设施道路,还是超市里的物价上涨——在本质上都取决于政治决策。人们认识到“政策决定了我的生活,而政治行动有可能改变现状”。尽管社交媒体上充斥着阴谋论、虚假信息与令人心力交瘁的极端争吵,以至于许多人怀念1990年代和2000年代那种家庭聚会上不谈政治的平静岁月,但我的书中绝非要否定政治化本身。大众关心政治是一件好事,我们应当告别那种去政治化的虚幻和平;关键的挑战在于,我们如何超越单纯的道德愤慨与线上极化,探索出能够承载这种政治热情的制度组织形态。

Original English

Guest: Furthermore, hyperpolitics has brought a meaningful increase in mass political literacy. Everyday citizens now recognize that key aspects of their material lives—rents, road conditions, grocery prices—are directly tied to political decisions. The understanding that "policy shapes my lived reality and politics can alter it" has taken root. Of course, the internet is flooded with conspiracy theories, noise, and exhausting discourse that makes people nostalgic for the 1990s and 2000s when families avoided political arguments at holiday dinners. But my book does not advocate a retreat from politicization. Mass engagement with politics is healthy and necessary; the real task is discovering institutional forms capable of expanding beyond superficial online grievance into genuine collective agency.

嘉宾的三本推荐书目

Host: 感谢你带来的深刻洞见。在节目尾声,按照我们的传统,你能为读者和观众推荐三本你正在阅读或深受启发的书籍吗?

Original English

Host: To wrap up our discussion, what three books would you recommend to our audience?

Guest: 我挑选了三本风格截然不同、横跨不同类型的著作:

第一本是波兰裔马克思主义历史学家伊萨克·多伊彻(Isaac Deutscher)所著的**《托洛茨基三部曲》**(《武装的先知》、《解除武装的先知》、《流亡的先知》)。多伊彻在三十岁出头移居英国并掌握英语后,写就了这部20世纪最杰出的政治人物传记之一。这部作品不仅在托派内部极具声望,据说连托尼·布莱尔以及众多新保守主义思想家都曾研读过它。我在二十岁出头时初读此书,最近又重听了有声书版本,其叙事之宏大、文笔之优美令人叹为观止。它不仅是一部引人入胜的人物传记,更是一部波澜壮阔的20世纪革命政治史,即便在今天读来依然具有极强的现实对照意义。

Original English

Guest: I’ve selected three distinct books from very different genres.

The first is the classic Trotsky trilogy by Isaac Deutscher (The Prophet Armed, The Prophet Unarmed, The Prophet Outcast). Deutscher was a Polish-Jewish historian who learned English in his thirties and went on to write one of the most brilliant political biographies of the twentieth century. While foundational for Trotskyists, it was famously read by figures across the spectrum, from Tony Blair to early neoconservatives. I first read it in my early twenties and recently revisited the audiobook; it remains an absolute masterpiece of political history and literary craft that speaks powerfully to our current dilemmas.

Guest: 第二本是比利时作家威廉·埃尔斯霍特(Willem Elsschot)写于1930年代的中篇小说**《奶酪》**(Kaas)。这本小说篇幅精炼,讲述了一个随着家庭开销增加、渴望致富的中年普通小职员,在机缘巧合下成为一名全职奶酪批发商的故事。讽刺的是,主人公本人极其厌恶奶酪且一生从不食用奶酪,但为了经商成功却不得不深陷其中。我认为这是献给21世纪消费主义社会的一则极其优美且深刻的现代寓言——在当代社会中,买卖商品与市场营销已经成为一种近乎强迫症式的全民狂热,但身处其中的人们却对自己所制造、买卖的具体产品本身表现出彻底的冷漠与疏离。

Original English

Guest: The second book is Willem Elsschot’s 1933 novella, Cheese (Kaas). It is a relatively concise and accessible story about an ordinary clerk who, burdened by growing family expenses, attempts to become a successful businessman by setting up a wholesale cheese enterprise. The comic tragedy is that he utterly detests cheese and never eats it, yet devotes his entire life to marketing it. It serves as a brilliant parable for 21st-century hyper-capitalism, where the compulsion to buy, brand, and sell has become an all-consuming obsession, entirely decoupled from any genuine care or regard for the actual commodities being traded.

Guest: 第三本是法国著名作家米歇尔·维勒贝克(Michel Houellebecq)的非虚构回忆录**《我生命中的几个月》**(Quelques mois dans ma vie)。维勒贝克作为小说家,其思想在《超级政治》一书中也占据了重要位置。这部作品并非虚构小说,而是他在经历了一段极其荒诞、混乱的个人生活风波(包括卷入一部荷兰色情电影合约纠纷)后写下的反思录。他在书中以此为切入点,对当代的性关系、文化战争、政治极化与道德恐慌展开了极其尖锐且具穿透力的哲学沉思。维勒贝克的文字虽然常常显得古怪且充满争议,但他对现代文明病态的先知般洞察力极为罕见。如果你想理解当代文化撕裂与超级政治的心理根源,阅读维勒贝克是一个绝佳的切入点。

Original English

Guest: The final book is Michel Houellebecq’s personal memoir, A Few Months in My Life (Quelques mois dans ma vie). Houellebecq is a central reference point in my analysis of hyperpolitics. This is not a novel, but a frank autobiographical account of a chaotic and surreal episode in his personal life involving an ill-fated Dutch art film project. From that bizarre scandal, he launches into a profound, razor-sharp meditation on contemporary sexuality, culture war politics, and institutional decay. Houellebecq is a provocative, prophetic figure whose diagnosis of our cultural moment is indispensable for understanding the psychological terrain of modern hyperpolitics.

Host: 精彩的推荐。非常感谢你今天的分享!

Guest: 谢谢你,非常感谢。

Original English

Host: Thank you so much for joining us.

Guest: Thank you.

📌 文中提及的人物和组织

关键字: hyper-politics deinstitutionalization short-termism political-literacy mass-politics