So, we're going to see how this ends up playing out, but we will know basically in the next hour. I don't think CoreWeave is eligible to get in. I mean, maybe they are. Coreweave, they went public. No, they went public this year. That's going to be a little tough. They're not a 2024 IPO. They were like March of this year, right? Yeah. I I think that's going to be a little harder for them to get in. Uh but we're going to see and ultimately it will obviously make an impact on some of these companies.

Again, for SoFi, this would be the one for all of us that would be awesome to get in. Just a question of if they have a shot. Fix that's another one that is eligible as well. Comfort Systems, this is a 34 billion $35 billion company. Um HVAC is what they mainly focus on. They're up 133% year to date. So there might be some names that get included that a lot of people just don't know that much about. They're not like sort of the hot names people talk about. But if they do get in, obviously that would be very good for those shareholders in those names.

So that's what you have on S&P. And again, we will find out over the coming hour what ends up happening. Uh big headline on Elon's space company. Thought this was kind of inevitable, but it looks like it is officially happening. not confirmed by the company yet, but as for the Wall Street Journal, secondary share at an $800 billion valuation for SpaceX. So, for anyone who has SpaceX on the private market, SpaceX is one of the most uh liquid private market stocks. I mean, there's a lot of ways to get access to SpaceX, even if you're not an accredited investor.

So, you can put in the chat if you own this one. I know Suchin, who's friend of the channel, has owned this for a long time. I think he's up like more than 5x on it. But SpaceX right there beginning a secondary share at an $800 billion valuation, hundred billion dollar valuation. That would be more valuable than OpenAI and it would officially be the most private the the largest private startup right now. OpenAI currently has that uh that valuation.

And so I think bullish Rocket Lab if SpaceX can get that type of valuation, bullish AS, I mean a lot of those names could get some a little of that momentum. Rocket Lab there. Wow. 49.40 rockab potentially closing just under 50 on the day. Got about 9 minutes until the close.

S&P I got a red candle. She might end up going red. But it is nice to see that the space names are getting a lot of respect and that could be something very big for SpaceX. 684.70. She tricked us this morning. She got to 68. She got like 70 cents away from alltime highs and she tricked us. But she was not able to get above that level.

Yes, Google also owns 8% of SpaceX. So that would be a massive increase on Google on their stake which on ironically their stake I think four quarters ago was the reason why Google massively beat EPS by 40%. Because they actually realized it on their balance sheet even if they didn't sell the stock and you know that could be something that helps them going into the future as well.

So we are going to see what happens there. A that's another candidate for S&P 500 inclusions. I did see this ticker getting thrown out. ARS Management Corporation, $55 billion company. There's a variety of tickers that are floating around as eligible. Um, they are private credit, kind of like a KKR, Apollo. I think both of those are in the S&P 500. So, yes, ARS management, Aries management, they also have a shot of getting in.

And then and then we're going to see yes, you can buy Android through the private markets. Again, a lot of it is just the valuation you're going to be paying, which is more aggressive. Hive is the platform that I think a lot of people use. H IV, you do have to prove you're an accredited investor on that platform, but you're just going to be paying a lot. Now, if it goes public and you double your money, you might not care, but like relative to how people get into these deals, some of these secondary platforms just charge you a higher fee and you know, that's kind of how they make their money.

Amcore right there, 43.33, that's up 27%. Iran was down about 3.4%. Nebius was also down 4.3. Bitcoin again 89324 and then Ethereum at 320. Take a look at this. This is another chart that has been going around for global monthly active users uh from sensor tower data which is this firm that essentially has a proprietary model that tracks all the usage of these platforms. Chatbt at 810 million 365 copilot for Microsoft 212 million. Gemini 346 million. Perplexity 45 million. Grock 34 million then claude at 11 million.

Now some of these numbers are a bit different than what the companies themselves have said. Obviously the company's word is a bit more important here and they're going to probably have an update. Also there's another rumor coming out that chachi 6 or 5.5 or whatever you want to call it is coming out next week. So uh a new model is getting ready to come.

But the point of these numbers is that more and more people are using these products which is very, very important for the overall usage of the industry. If we were to get a new GPT model, I think that would be very, very exciting simply because of the fact that, you know, Gemini 3 right now is taking the the cake of like the best model that people actually care about. Um, and obviously Altman has no shot unless he has a better model and all of us as investors are going to see if they can actually put up that better model going into the end of the year and that would definitely be a good way for them to compete going into the end of the year as well.

Amazon right there 229 0.09 09%. You know what this day feels like? It feels like a lot of people that have covered calls that are getting saved. Like if you had Robin Hood 135 covered calls, you're getting saved. If you have Amazon 232 covered calls, you're getting saved. Video 185, you're getting saved. Like BMR right there, that's down about 5% based on ETH price action. But if you had covered calls on some of these names on Rubric, you're probably getting screwed on the cover calls. Rubric hit 90 at one point. Dude, look at that. 22% on the day, but a lot of them finishing just below those levels.

S&P announcement is at 5:15 p.m. Eastern. 5:15 p.m. Eastern. Um, we will get that announcement. It might happen at 5:20. Dude, there's there's another probability. We might not get the announcement. last time in June, uh, for the first time in three years, the S&P didn't do any rebalance, which I just felt like was a troll. Uh, I was like, really? In three years, you're not there's no companies that need to get out of the S&P? That's that's quite incredible. Um, so maybe that happens this time. I think it's less likely, but if we don't get an answer by like 5:30, then we know that maybe they're not doing a rebalance.

My SoFi covered calls were cooked. Yeah, SoFi definitely did everybody a solid with that dilution. If you had 28.50, 28, 29. Now granted, if they get in maybe I mean there's four minutes left. I don't know if you can close them, but see the thing is if let's say you have a 28 covered call and then after hours SoFi shoots up to 29 for whatever reason, maybe because they got into the S&P 500, those shares probably get called away. We've seen this happen many, many times. So, I mean, giving back a couple hundred bucks just to potentially save your shares if they were to get in is not the worst idea, but it all depends on them getting in. And we're going to see later if that ends up taking place.

My Soapi leaps are also gone. Dude, Nod is going to get paid half a billion at 45. We've got to imagine that uh that he's he's got a plan, right? Like he's not some random CEO that has no idea um what he's doing. And it's not like they need the money. So like like like a like a desperate meme stock. So I think there's something deeper. I think there's something deeper.

Matt has had a great day. 673. I mean, this stock was at 585 two weeks ago and it was at 620 on Monday. So, anyone who's really taking advantage of the metadip at scale, you've been heavily rewarded and that is a long candidate going into 2026 along with I think Amazon and Nvidia. Meta stock year to date now 12%. It was 3% last week, so now we're at 12%.

They should do these S&P rebounces on Wednesdays and not Fridays because the options market. Yeah, I mean it's always been weird kind of how they announced them and also they just have such an archaic way of announcing it. Like everyone's refreshing a website for no like this should be such such a modern process and it's not.

But unfortunately that's how you're seeing it. Grab also down on the day again for Grab. I think the number one thing to remember is that until they get clarity on what's going on with goto I think this stock is going to continue to be red. So 519 I think is deeply deeply undervalued. I don't think it makes much sense for the company but nonetheless they have a narrative attached to them right now. In a couple weeks that narrative potentially changes and so until it does you know you're likely going to have investors keeping it at those levels and we have to see how it ultimately ends up playing out. S&P 500 right there at 685 Friday December 5th 4 p.m. Thank you everybody for being here. We will know in about an hour who gets included into the S&P 500. The market is now closed. All right, we are closed for the week. We are closed for the week and we are done. It's been a long week, but a quick week. It's a long week. I mean, but it's been a quick week as well. felt long but it also went by incredibly quick and we are here at the end of the first week of December. S&P 500 685.66 on the day 18% up a little bit after hours 685.87

Oh, that's a headline. DOJ expected to investigate Netflix's bid for Warner Brothers with regulators already examining how the deal could cement Netflix dominance. Wow.

I mean, that is quite incredible that this continues to become a thing for Netflix. Let's get some coverage on Netflix and we'll get through a bunch of other headlines that we have. But Josh Brown, the person who sold Google to buy Netflix today, has trimmed 85% of his Netflix and watch this become a political football and tie up capital.

So, it's just a um it's just a a portfolio management decision. Um I think there going to be other opportunities that have more near-term upside while this Netflix thing works its way through the uh the meat grinder in Washington. I want I want everyone to understand I think Netflix right now represents a tremendous value, but I don't think the stock will be able to get out of its own way. The thing to keep in mind here is we don't know if an over-the-top bid comes. We don't know what Republicans are going to want to talk about as as it pertains to this. We don't know what the Democrats will want to talk about. There's a lot of antitrust uh there's a big antitrust contingent in both parties for different reasons. Then of course there's the White House. This would be the second largest merger or acquisition in the post-pandemic period worldwide other than Norfolk Southern and Union Pacific. the railroad tie up at 85 billion. You cannot tell me um the eye of Sauron is not going to see this thing happening and say what can we what what does this mean for us? And keep in mind this is media so it probably means something. I'm not telling you they have to put the apprentice back on the air or it's going to be something like that. But don't be surprised that this takes over a year produced by Baron. This this could take over a year. So look I celebrity I have tons of gonna be the remedy. Yeah, >> right. I have tons of Right. Ma Ma Maga Apprentice. So, all all I'm saying is I think Netflix is a great value. I think it's a great deal. I actually love the deal for them. Not only for them, but I love that they're keeping this out of the hands of somebody else. Equally important in the streaming wars. Um, but I can't sit here. So, I I kept a very small position on and we'll we'll see what happens. We'll I we'll watch it for the next 12 to 18 months. See how this goes.

>> I thought some of the Kev, you have the stock, too. I thought some of the notes from the street today about the strategic nature of the the deal and how it's a departure for Netflix from how it has historically done things. Uh Huber Research says, "We've had an overweight for nearly the entire time over the last 10 years, but are stepping aside. Netflix has been very successful the last 15 plus years developing its own content and has smartly stayed away from doing sizable deals. We do not see the need to change that." Baird weighs in today. Certainly a deviation from the company's historical approach and we understand the initial investor hesitation regarding the size of this deal and the potential closing integration process, but we suspect the long-term benefits will ultimately outweigh the near-term risks risks. You as a shareholder have to be willing to sit for the long haul. You have to have a bigger vision. But the notion that this is historically different than what Netflix is used to doing, not unlike you might hear if Apple was to make an acquisition of some scale larger than it's ever done before, you'd probably have similar notes.

>> I hope we do see that from Apple, Scott, and I'm thrilled to see it from Netflix. I'm going to take the other side of this. I think it's incredibly um wonderful to see them go on the offensive. this is a an IP play that if the deal were to go through and I agree with all the notes and Josh's comments that the likelihood is pretty thin. I also think that we'll see a competitive bid from Paramount Skyworks to excuse me a hostile bid from them to to to to keep this deal alive. But if it did happen, you kind of think of it like the Disney deal when they bought Star Wars and when they bought Marvel. When you're talking about some of these franchises, Game of Thrones, The Sopranos, the DC Universe, Harry Potter, what Netflix can do with this >> I never saw it. I think it's an amazing um opportunity for this company to to just take these franchises into a whole another stratosphere. So, I'm excited about the deal and I'm I'm happy.

What do you make of Josh's move to sell 85% of his his stock?

>> I think it's a mistake. I think I would be more of a buyer of the stock. If the deal does get blown up, the stock will go higher. And plus, the one difference between Josh and I is I can write covered calls against this. There's going to be heightened volatility now around this name even more so they were bowing out in in such a large way. He would agree with everything that you've said, I'm sure, on the fundamental basis of this. Yeah. um the stock itself he obviously the company itself the leadership likes all of it but you're gonna be in some level as in in

>> I wouldn't trim 85% of it I think that's I mean if it's a portfolio management move that's different but like I don't know that's a lot of Netflix position you're getting out of for something that seems to be much more accretive than not even if there's going to be some controversy around if they can get the deal done in Washington

apparently Paramount is reportedly considering presenting an offer for Warner Brothers directly to shareholders now this stuff can happen. Uh companies can go directly to the shareholder base and just say hey we are willing to pay 95 billion for uh Warner Brothers instead of uh Netflix's 80 billion and you know they can just bypass the company and then the company then has a fiduciary you know who did this in modern history Mr. Elon Musk when he put out his offer for X um he publicly said I want to buy and then the the CEO had a fiduciary responsibility to then inquire about the offer because if that offer is better than an existing offer you can't ignore it as a fiduciary you have to take a look at it.

So that is kind of crazy if Paramount wants it that bad that they're just going to put out a press release and says we'll pay a hundred billion or something crazy and then Warner Brothers can't actually just dismiss it. Warren Brothers 26.08 up about 7% on the day. And so we're going to see we're going to see how that one ends up playing out.

I'm actually fairly pleased with what I'm seeing in terms of holiday sales. Uh I was a little fearful that tariffs might impact those sales, but Black Friday was good. Cyber Monday was fairly good. Not gang busters, but it shows an economy that, you know, is is moving at a, you know, probably two two and a half% GDP pace. Um, one thing that's so unusual, Scott, I mean, yesterday when I saw jobless claims go to more than a three-year low, uh, and and the day before that on Wednesday, seeing the ADP employment report showing the lowest level in almost three years. I mean, that is something that is just never supposed to happen. Uh, I mean, the the the labor market uh is is so hard to interpret. This is the most extreme uh no higher no fire economy uh that we've ever seen.

>> It's funny, professor, you know, there are some notes today that do talk about seasonality being in in our favor um as it as it tends to be, especially when you come into December with such a strong year leading into it. But there's also a mention today of FOMO that it's in full swing yet again. That there are a lot of portfolio managers who have underperformed this market. maybe they couldn't be as large as they otherwise would have wanted to in some of the mega caps. So now the chase is on. Is there something to that?

>> Well, there there is, but again, you know, the Mag 7 has been the outperformers and they've been relatively weak actually over the last uh four to six weeks, which is a little bit surprising. Now, maybe some people will say, I got to get them on my balance sheet in the last couple of weeks of the year. You do get some uh of that evening up that's happening. Um, but I'm actually rather pleased to seeing uh the rally broaden out. Uh, and right now I I actually see less FOMO than I think I uh saw maybe four or six weeks ago.

>> Oh, interesting. You know, the the other idea is is what city puts forth today, professor, where they say no pain, no gain, and they use the A and the I in pain and gain in in caps and talking about a bubble. We we think we're in a bubble in US equities, they say. But bubbles are initially quite profitable, so stay long. This is like, well, I guess you have to inflate it before you pop it, so we might as well ride this as long as we can.

>> You know, the big So, just a minute. Is this like 96 or 99? There's a big There's a big difference uh about that. And by the way, that internet bubble was many times what we're seeing now.

>> Service Now approves five for one stock split. Service Now will be splitting their stock, $859 stock. stocks up a little bit after hours about half a percent. Uh if it stays at this price, it'll open at $171. I believe in two weeks the split will be approved. Uh honestly, it might happen closer earlier than that, but officially the shareholder vote has gone through. Service Now shareholders have approved a five for one stock split.

>> Uh uh you know, not in in both the tech stocks and the non- tech stocks. I'm actually pleased to see some caution in the mag 7 uh recently and uh I'm not saying you know I mean Tesla Palunteer there's a few of them that do have those tripledigit PE ratios but the others uh you know PE ratios of of 30 when you're growing 20% plus a year and beating on all metrics. I'm not saying they're the ones to own, but certainly I wouldn't say that they are in bubble territory. And once you subtract the mag 7 or the related tech, you get pees that are under 20, which in my uh you know, playbook is absolutely not a bubble. So I I am not in agreement with uh you know, Cityroup's analysis here.

you know, when you when you talk about certain kinds of stocks and and you mentioned Palunteer by name. I'm wondering given the number of markets you've seen over the years, you've seen many stocks that have acted like this one over the years. How do you tell an investor class, so to speak, as the professor, how to judge a company like that? It's a totally legit, real, great business, right? with a with a fire brand CEO who doesn't take any you know what

>> and and this company's got some real stuff going on. Yes, it trades at a high P, but it also has a a very loyal cohort of investors behind it, not only institutionally but retail. Well, Scott, everything you're saying right now could be said of Tesla, right? Um I mean you know a very you know CEO that's in the limelight uh who's done amazing things PE ratio well over a hundred. We know if it is just on the if Tesla was just a car company you know it would be selling at about 30 or $40 a share. It's all those options on what Elon Musk can do might do. Uh of course that's a $64 question. uh all the things that Karp can do, might do. Uh but these both of these companies, Palunteer a and and Tesla show so much more substance than the crazy internet companies that were being bought in 2000.

>> I guess that's that's kind of my point, right? is you have to make a distinction. Even while we make analogies to different periods of time and market caps and valuations etc. there are clear differences that that need to be pointed out. Let me ask you this. Um the backup in interest rates concerning to you in any way?

>> Uh yeah. Well, you know, we're going to see the Fed uh next week. Um, you know, I've always said that even if the Fed lowers, I don't I actually see the the tenure between four and four and a quarter. Uh, I mean, I think I think you have to lower the short end because the short end is usually one percentage point below the long end and that's why it belows belongs on the low 3s. We'll see how the bond market reacts. What's causing some of this backup today? It's it's it's it's hard to say. Are are they worried about Kevin Hasset? That he might, you know, cowtow to Trump a little bit too much, lower interest rates a little too fast, a little too much. It could be a little bit of uh, you know, the the oil market has ticked up a bit. Uh, I wouldn't call, you know, 411 to be something to be concerned about. Uh, certainly quite yet.

>> I'll ask you this then about the Feds since you bring it up. I I think people think they're going to cut next week.

>> Yeah. Oh, I think it's >> Yeah, >> you absolutely you say >> I Well, nothing is absolute. I I think it's going to be a very hawkish cut, which means they're going to cut, but put in the language that they're apt to hold in January unless they see the economy, you know, significantly deteriorate or inflation come down dramatically. So that that is what I think the the message is going to be next week.

>> What's going on, everyone?

>> Are you in the car, Steve?

>> I'm in the car, man. Driving through the city.

>> Are you enjoying driving through the world's greatest city in traffic on a Friday?

>> It's certainly different driving in the winter than driving in the summer. The car is freezing. It's dark out. People beeping.

>> It gets dark so quick now. Like it's actually insane how quick it is. >> It is insane that 4:00 is dark. >> Um, all right. So, we got a lot to talk about. Thank you for joining. I think I think let's let's get your take on the S&P first before we get into the whole Netflix stuff. Um, gut feeling. Do you think SoFi gets in in the next 30 minutes?

>> No.

>> Uh, do you think if they did get in, it would be surprising or they deserve to get in early early?

>> I mean, I think I can make an argument that at least 50 companies don't deserve to be in it compared to SoFi, but I don't think they're going to get in, but I think you could say that with anything. You know, when Hood got in, I think we could have made the argument that 50 companies didn't deserve to be in it instead of Hood. So,

>> yeah. Yeah. Okay. Okay, so let me throw some other companies at you and just get your raw opinion. Reddit.

>> I don't know enough about them. I think I don't even understand why anybody uses Reddit. So I mean seriously, why is anybody going on a message board in 2025? Come on.

>> No, but there are some like crowdsourced pieces of information that are unique to Reddit, right? like on these message boards.

>> So, >> it's a fair point. Uh Carvana,

>> I don't know how that company's still in business. >> Like seriously. And look, what the person that we were with aside, who the hell is buying a car out of a vending machine? Come on. Like really?

Look, I haven't understood it either, but they have been the best performing stock over the past five years, which is

>> Yeah, because they almost went out of business and did some freaking debt equity offering and somehow the market just decided it was going to work. It didn't make any sense then and sure as all it doesn't make any sense now.

>> It's of 100% year to date, too. Um, here's one I think you I think you're gonna agree with this one. Shener.

>> Shaneer is freaking great company. Do do you think S&P would definitely think twice about putting them in?

>> I'm surprised they're not in. How about that?

Amit：我也是。我认为这是一个今天很有可能入选的候选者。

Steve：我认为他们应该入选是理所当然的。

Amit：好的，再来两个。MicroStrategy，你认为他们会入选吗？

Steve：不。

Amit：为什么？

Steve：如果MicroStrategy入选了，而SoFi没有，那我们就有问题了。我们真的有问题了。

Steve：这样说吧，我不想看到MicroStrategy被纳入。怎么样？

Amit：我明白，因为归根结底，你严重依赖比特币。

Steve：让它自己成为与比特币相关的东西。它不需要在标普500里。

Amit：好的。最后一个，VRT Vertiv。你认为他们有机会入选吗？

Steve：是的，我猜是。

Amit：这是液冷数据中心的公司。

Steve：我知道他们是做什么的。是的，我猜是。

Amit：在所有这些公司中，我认为Cheniere是那个。

Steve：是的，我也认为是Cheniere。

Amit：我们还有20分钟就要等到SoFi的消息了，我想，或者我已经把它叫做S&P的消息了。Tanner稍后会加入。我们来谈谈Netflix。

Steve：我们来谈谈Netflix。

Amit：首先，我想说的是，大概一年前，Steve，当这只股票可能在12美元时，你说：“我们必须关注华纳兄弟。” 你的论点是他们可能会被收购，但你也说：“天啊，他们有惊人的资产。” 我当时担心的是债务问题。这只股票今年迄今上涨了160%。显然，没人关心债务。他们关心的是你最初论点中提到的——惊人的资产，看起来这为他们赢得了一份收购要约。所以，我想把舞台交给你，你认为这对Netflix和华纳兄弟来说是正确的举动吗？

Steve：事情是这样的。公平地说，我是股东，因为我从AT&T的分拆中获得了我的股份。我没有买入比我应该买的更多。我认为这是一个阴谋论。你准备好听阴谋论了吗？

Amit：好的，我们来听听。

Steve：Netflix拿不到这个标的。监管机构不会让它通过。它会落到派拉蒙手里。

Amit：好的，但为什么？为什么监管机构会……

Steve：他们不会让排名第一和第四的流媒体公司合并，让排名第一的变得更大。派拉蒙大概排在第六或第七。所以那样的合并绝对行得通。我认为那样你就可以认为这是一个合法的垄断，而这笔交易将很难通过。我认为拉里·埃里森会用尽他所有的手段，和特朗普一起，捐赠他需要做的一切，让监管机构不批准这笔交易，然后让派拉蒙直接接触股东，并可能提高他们的报价，支付与Netflix合同中58.8亿美元的全部解约费，然后说：“听着，你们永远无法通过监管机构。他们永远不会批准。接受我们的交易。我们会支付你们解约金的额外费用。”

Steve：原因如下。这是一生一次的交易。这些资产再也不会上市了。埃里森和他的儿子们整个周末都会和他们的银行家一起工作。他们会想出办法的。他们不会不战而降。尽管这看起来似乎远未结束，或者说已经尘埃落定。但这远未结束，因为在Netflix这边，通过监管机构至少需要一年半的时间。派拉蒙那边，他们可以更快地推动这件事。我确实认为，在这种情况下，我们还没有听到最终的细节。而且既然这是一生一次的事情，也许埃里森家族愿意在短期内多付一些钱，因为如果他们做不成这件事，他们就完蛋了。派拉蒙就完蛋了，而Netflix将成为一个你再也无法撼动的公司。

Steve：现在，从Netflix的角度来看，这是一笔了不起的交易。他们出高价，而且他们应该出高价，这对任何人来说都是一笔了不起的交易。正如我一直说的，苹果应该买下他们，Netflix应该买下他们，亚马逊也应该买下他们。华纳兄弟拥有皇冠上的明珠般的资产。对Netflix来说，他们不仅获得了华纳兄弟工作室和整个内容库，还获得了HBO和HBO Max以及所有内容。而且他们现在可以通过华纳兄弟制作他们所有的电视节目和电影。

Amit：你在这里提出了几个非常好的观点。第一点是，这些资产再也不会出售了。我认为这是一个非常重要的观点，因为像哈利波特这样的系列不是经常被转手的。

Amit：是的，你说得对，这是一笔大交易，《权力的游戏》，所有这些东西。我想问你的是，你说他们会被视为垄断，但如果Netflix的论点是“我们与YouTube竞争，所以我们不能被认真对待，因为注意力经济如此广阔，你不能说我们是垄断”呢？

Steve：我认为他们会这么说，而且我认为这是他们整个论点的一部分，即这不仅仅是CBS对派拉蒙对迪士尼。这是一个注意力环境，有YouTube和Prime以及所有这些其他东西，关键是观看时间而不是订阅数。但我认为对此的反驳是，这仍然是流媒体电视和流媒体电影，而Netflix已经是主导者。当你加上订阅数，我的意思是，HBO Max有多少用户，3300万还是多少？

Amit：不，实际上，我今天看到HBO Max有1.3亿订阅用户。

Steve：1.3亿订阅用户。当你把这个加到Netflix平台上，他们就成了一个超级垄断者，他们成为了一个更大的第一名。这不是第二名和第三名竞争与第一名抗衡。这是第一名吞并第四名，让差距变得更大。我认为这将是监管机构非常难以接受的事情。而且我确实认为派拉蒙会试图提出更高的报价，想出一些办法，并试图直接接触股东和董事会，说：“听着，和我们合作，心照不宣，交易会通过的。特朗普已经祝福了。我们会提高报价。我们会给你58亿的解约费，这是Netflix合同里的，我们会以某种方式提高它。”他们会想办法在这件事上坑Netflix。

Amit：你认为他们会支付60亿美元只是为了……

Amit：好的。那么接下来的问题是，为什么拉里·埃里森，作为甲骨文的CEO，一个比媒体行业任何机会都好得多的机会，为什么他这么关心这件事？

Steve：因为他的儿子们在经营派拉蒙。

Amit：是的。但就像……所以他只是想让他的儿子非常成功？这就是支付400亿美元的动机吗？你知道我的意思吗？这只是……

Steve：是的，那是我在按喇叭。

Amit：我们听到了。

Steve：我只是想说清楚。

Amit：是的。好的。嗯，是的。你为什么认为他那么关心派拉蒙和他们的成功？我猜……

Steve：你知道我不知道，可能因为他只是在资助他的儿子们，他认为这是未来，传统媒体将继续崩溃。我的意思是，看，Netflix的交易对华纳兄弟的股东来说是一笔非常好的交易。当你审视整个交易时，你得到24.5美元的现金，另外几美元的股权，以及在一个分拆公司中剩下的传统电视频道。这是一笔非常好的交易。好的，分拆公司将被加载大量债务。不是所有债务都会最终落到Netflix的资产负债表上。这是一笔非常好的交易，但我认为与派拉蒙有更好的交易可以达成。我真的这么认为。

Amit：所以你的看法是这笔交易不会成功。今天早上有报道说特朗普不喜欢Netflix以及他们与……

Steve：不。哦，还有另一件事。要记住，这是阴谋论第二部分。你准备好听加强版的了吗？

Amit：好的，说吧。

Steve：华纳兄弟探索公司拥有什么资产是特朗普讨厌的？好的，让我们想一下。如果你知道答案，请在聊天区里写出来。华纳兄弟拥有什么资产……

Amit：好的。那么是什么资产呢？

Steve：CNN。

Amit：好的。你认为他希望CNN由Netflix运营还是由埃里森家族运营？

Steve：这真是一个好……

Steve：我只是说说而已。

Amit：我甚至不认为这算太大的阴谋论，说实话。

Steve：我只是说说而已。让我们玩玩国际象棋，而不是跳棋。

Steve：你难道不认为拉里·埃里森去找特朗普说：“听着，我能搞定这些人，CNN会变成福克斯2.0。”你认为他没对特朗普这么说吗？我就会这么对特朗普说。

Amit：当然，他们不是在购买电视网络，对吧？那是分拆成一家上市公司。但谁能说他们不会把那部分剥离出来，不让它进入分拆公司呢？

Steve：是的。我的意思是，根据我今天早上读到的交易信息，他们将把Discovery Global Plus变成一家上市公司，包括所有流媒体和电视业务，而Netflix将收购工作室。但就你所说，今天早上也有报道，与你说的相符。CNBC说特朗普对奥巴马的制作公司与Netflix有合作关系感到不快。然后你还有所有围绕Netflix的所谓“觉醒”争议。所以可能会有一个广泛的论点，即政府不希望这家公司变得超级强大。

Steve：并且让他们创作显然不站在他们一边……

Steve：而且请记住，那是Netflix的交易，不是派拉蒙的交易。所以Netflix是那个把所有东西都分拆成一个拥有传统媒体的分拆公司。埃里森很可能会去找特朗普说：“嘿，别担心。我们会保留CNN作为我们的一部分。”我们会处理好CNN的。别担心。

Steve：埃里森不是靠输才走到今天的。他不是靠收购失败才走到今天的。仅仅因为现在看起来Netflix赢了，并不意味着这事就过去了，也不意味着这事就结束了。派拉蒙可以去找股东，他们可以提出另一个交易，他们可以做成一些事。归根结底，他们有政府的快速拨号，而Netflix没有。政府不喜欢Netflix，但他们喜欢埃里森和埃里森团队。所以，当事情到了紧要关头，哦，没问题。你需要另外50亿来资助所有账户。别担心，我们会给你65亿。我们会和迈克尔·戴尔匹配。我们会给你更多，甚至更多用于特朗普的账户。别担心。

最终揭晓：标普500新晋成员名单

Amit：哦，SoFi现在有点跌了。所有这些公司现在都在转跌。真好笑。

Tanner：哇。

Steve：这太荒谬了。不，没人应该认为SoFi会入选，它不应该因为这个下跌。

Amit：是的，我同意。我的意思是，这只是人们的看法最终成了一个问题。

Amit：Marvell因为这个消息下跌了2%。目前还没有任何消息。

Amit：Carvana，他们会入选吗？

Steve：别告诉我那个该死的汽车自动售货机要入选了。太荒谬了。

Amit：CRH，这家公司是什么？CRH。他们上涨了8.6%。Steve，你认识这些家伙吗？

Steve：我不认识他们。不。

Amit：市值800亿美元的公司。CRH是一家建材供应商。他们总部在都柏林。坦白说，如果他们能进入标普500，未来一年他们的市值可能会翻倍。盘后上涨了4%。

Amit：我仍然没有看到官方报告。

Amit：好的，所以这不是确认的。我看到的是CRH、Carvana和Comfort Systems。这不是确认的。

Steve：滚出去。

Amit：这开始传开了。是的。这应该是真的了，各位。CRH、Carvana和Comfort Systems。哦，我的彭博终端报道了。就是这样。

Steve：一个汽车自动售货机公司竟然超过了Cheniere进入了标普500。你在开玩笑吗？

Amit：这确实有点奇怪。另外……

Steve：帮我个忙。帮我个忙。Cheniere过去三个月的净收入是多少？Carvana的又是多少？

Amit：好的。我现在查不了，但我敢肯定比Carvana的好。SoFi正在下跌。

Tanner：2.63亿美元。

Steve：LG的是多少？

Tanner：16亿。

Steve：哦，酷。所以，我们让……是的，酷。酷的故事。

Amit：是的，已经确认了。他们将在12月20日加入，各位。12月20日。CRH、Carvana和Comfort Systems。

Tanner：哪些公司被剔除了？哦是的。哪些被剔除了？哦，Elk、KQ、Solstice Advanced Materials和Mohawk Industries。

Steve：但我的意思是，SoFi难道不应该在这些公司之前入选吗？当然应该。有很多公司需要被剔除。Solstice今年下跌了2%。我不知道LKQ是什么。那只股票今年下跌了18%。这些公司的市值是多少？

Tanner：LKQ是70亿。Solstice也是70亿。然后Mohawk Industries是……

Steve：那不是那个该死的地毯公司吗？

Tanner：是的，那是家地毯公司。

Steve：我只是说说，不是吗？

Tanner：是的。而且是另一家70亿美元的公司。

Tanner：是的。我真的认为，像，差不多有200家公司甚至不再符合资格，因为它们已经失去了盈利能力，没有足够的交易量，或者市值低于200亿美元。这非常……

Amit：很抱歉让所有期待今天S&P有劲爆消息的人失望了。我的意思是，这些都是相对无聊的名字，但事实就是如此。至少Carvana，我知道，是一个更大的散户熟知的名字，至少它有所行动。

Amit：好了，各位。感谢大家。很感激。我周日会在《未来秀》回归。Steve今晚会直播。Tanner今晚也会直播。不幸的是，这次我们没能让SoFi入选，但我认为他们明年有很好的机会。所以我们拭目以待。

Steve：我们大概20分钟后见。

Amit：谢谢大家。

Steve：再见，各位。祝大家周末愉快。周日见。晚安。