每日回顾回归：浓缩市场精华

Hey everybody, welcome back to the channel. We are back on another episode of the daily recap. It has been five long months, but we are back. 大家好，欢迎回到本频道。我们又回到了每日回顾的节目。漫长的五个月过去了，我们终于回来了。

Over the past couple months, my grandparents came over from India, and I was moving out of my parents' house to this new apartment. Honestly, it just became impossible to do a daily recap every single day. 在过去的几个月里，我的祖父母从印度过来，我也从父母家搬到了新公寓。老实说，每天做一期每日回顾变得不可能。

But I'm excited to be back. For those new to the channel, if you've been subscribed over the past couple months or just recently discovered the channel through the live streams, we do a market open and market close every day, and I truly enjoy doing those two live streams every day. 但我很高兴能回来。对于频道的新朋友，如果你在过去几个月里一直订阅，或者最近通过直播发现了本频道，我们每天都会进行市场开盘和收盘直播，我真的很喜欢每天做这两场直播。

The daily recap is a concept I came up with about seven or eight months ago to consolidate all the most important stories from the market open and market close—stories people don't have time to sit through and listen to for four or five hours a day—into one concise video, delivered at 8:00 p.m. Eastern every day. 每日回顾是我大约七八个月前构思的一个概念，旨在将市场开盘和收盘中所有最重要的故事——那些人们没有时间每天花四五个小时坐下来听的故事——浓缩成一个简洁的视频，每天东部时间晚上8点发布。

People can watch it as they wake up, brush their teeth, drive, or take their kids to work, just to get a quick gist of what happened in the stock market during the day. 人们可以在起床、刷牙、开车或送孩子上班时观看，以便快速了解当天股市发生的事情。

Unfortunately, again, life took over. I couldn't do it for the past five months; I just got really, really busy. But now that I'm settled into my apartment, I'm very excited to do this every single day. 不幸的是，生活再次占据了主导。在过去的五个月里我没能做这个节目，因为我真的非常非常忙。但现在我已安顿在新公寓，我非常期待每天都能做这件事。

One reason I really love doing it is it keeps me a lot more concise in analyzing what happened during the day. 我非常喜欢做这件事的一个原因是，它能让我在分析当天发生的事情时更加简洁明了。

And then the next day, when I kind of go back into what happened the day before, because I did a daily recap, I can consolidate what happened, why it happened, and the implications of it happening. 然后第二天，当我回顾前一天发生的事情时，因为我做了每日回顾，我能够整合事件、原因及其影响。

You put all that stuff together to continuously analyze the markets every day. You really have to be on top of your game on understanding every single thing that's happening from a macro perspective, earnings perspective, and now, in this market, an AI perspective. 将所有这些信息汇集起来，每天持续分析市场。你真的必须时刻保持警觉，从宏观、盈利以及当前市场的人工智能角度理解正在发生的每一件事。

So I love doing them. I just got really busy over the past couple months, but we're back, and I'm excited to do it. The goal is 15 minutes each. 所以我喜欢做这些节目。过去几个月我确实很忙，但我们回来了，我很高兴能继续。目标是每期15分钟。

I can yap. I can really yap. I mean, I know how to yap. So some of these daily recaps, unfortunately, used to be like 25, 30 minutes long. 我能侃侃而谈。我真的很能说。我的意思是，我知道怎么说。所以很不幸，有些每日回顾以前长达25、30分钟。

And I agree with a lot of people who love the format, but they were just like, "Dude, 25-30 minutes is not even a recap, right? It ends up being a podcast." 我同意很多喜欢这种形式的人的观点，但他们会说：“伙计，25-30分钟根本就不是回顾了，对吧？那最后会变成播客。”

So I do want to keep them 15 minutes. We're going to try to do five stories a day, three minutes each on each story, and try to consolidate to the most important stories every single day. And hopefully, we can get that to 15 minutes. 所以，我确实想把它们控制在15分钟。我们每天会尝试讲五个故事，每个故事三分钟，并努力每天只整合最重要的故事。希望我们能把时间控制在15分钟。

This episode will probably be a little bit longer than 15 minutes because of this intro, but the goal is 15 minutes every single day, daily recap. 由于这个开场白，本期节目可能会比15分钟长一点，但目标是每日回顾节目每天15分钟。

And hopefully, people that don't get the market open, market close can catch up with all the most important news of the day. 希望那些没有时间关注市场开盘和收盘的人，能够通过此节目了解当天所有最重要的消息。

And you know, given Wall Street is the greatest show on earth, and it has been a crazy year. And I don't think the years that are coming are going to be any less crazier, having the ability to look back on every single day and see what the heck is happening and try to analyze it to the best that we can. 你知道，鉴于华尔街是地球上最精彩的表演，而且今年一直很疯狂。我不认为未来几年会不那么疯狂，能够回顾每一天，看看究竟发生了什么，并尽我们所能去分析它。

I think it's going to be important because this might be one of the greatest decades to be an investor, and hopefully, we get to cover it every single day together. 我认为这会很重要，因为这可能是作为投资者最伟大的十年之一，希望我们能每天一起报道它。

So thank you everybody for being here. Daily recaps are back Monday through Thursday, 8:00 PM Eastern every day, and let's get into it. 所以感谢大家的到来。每日回顾节目从周一到周四，每天东部时间晚上8点回归，让我们开始吧。

中美关系与市场反弹：逢低买入重现

All right, so the first story of the day is what happened over the weekend with China. 好的，今天第一个故事是周末中国发生的事情。

Now, obviously, we had the first negative 3% down day on the S&P 500 (Standard & Poor's 500: 标普500指数，衡量美国股市表现的指标) for the first time since April 21st. A pretty monstrous day. Obviously, we haven't seen that type of a drawdown in the past five months. 显然，自4月21日以来，我们首次看到标普500指数出现3%的负增长下跌。这是一个相当惊人的日子。显然，在过去五个月里，我们没有看到过这种程度的回调。

However, Sunday afternoon, Trump tweeted, "Don't worry about China. It will all be fine. Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. He doesn't want depression for his country, and neither do I. The USA wants to help China, not hurt it." 然而，周日下午，特朗普发推文称：“别担心中国。一切都会好起来的。备受尊敬的习主席只是暂时失利。他不想让他的国家陷入萧条，我也不想。美国希望帮助中国，而不是伤害它。”

Obviously, Trump de-escalated the situation. Biden de-escalated the situation this morning when he said, "President Trump wants to work with China." JD Vance yesterday de-escalated the situation. 显然，特朗普缓和了局势。拜登今天早上也缓和了局势，他说：“特朗普总统希望与中国合作。” JD Vance昨天也缓和了局势。

At the end of the day, I think the way this market is culminating is by basically getting everyone to recognize, "Wait a second, the structural problems with the stock market or the structural problems with the economy in order to have pain on the stock market need to be a lot greater than a Trump tweet." 归根结底，我认为这个市场最终会促使每个人认识到：“等等，股市或经济的结构性问题，要对股市造成痛苦，其程度必须远大于特朗普的一条推文。”

Because although we got that 3% drawdown on Friday, which, look, it was bound to happen at some point. You hadn't had a red day in so long. You were going to have some reason that would create some downside momentum. 因为尽管周五我们经历了3%的回调，但你看，这迟早会发生。你已经很久没有经历下跌日了。总会有一些原因会造成下行势头。

October is also the most volatile month of the year. So it kind of got served up on a silver platter with Trump saying something about China. He mentioned tariffs, and then you have the sort of hot streak we were on. It all kind of collided in one place, and it came down. 十月也是一年中波动最大的月份。所以，当特朗普就中国问题发表言论，提到关税，再加上我们之前的一波上涨行情，这一切就像是摆在银盘上一样，全部在一个点上碰撞，然后市场就下跌了。

Today, the rebound was 800 billion added to the S&P 500. It was a massively green day across the entire board. And I think the dip-buying momentum came back. 今天，标普500指数反弹，增加了8000亿美元市值。整个市场呈现大规模上涨。我认为逢低买入的势头又回来了。

The institutional volume potentially came back today. We'll get more aggregated, consolidated data on that over the coming days in terms of how much money is actually buying this dip. 机构交易量今天可能已经回升。未来几天我们将获得更多关于实际有多少资金在逢低买入的汇总数据。

And you're starting to see more and more people say, "Look, Trump tweeting about China or China retaliating by saying, 'Hey, the United States is being mean, and we want to defend ourselves, and we have the right to defend ourselves.'" 你开始看到越来越多的人说：“看，特朗普关于中国的推文，或者中国反击说‘嘿，美国很刻薄，我们想自卫，我们有权自卫。’”

Which, by the way, China also de-escalated to an extent by saying, "Hey, like we also want to work with the United States, but if they're going to fight us, we're going to fight back." 顺便说一句，中国也在一定程度上缓和了局势，表示：“嘿，我们也想和美国合作，但如果他们要和我们打，我们也会反击。”

Both sides, at the end of the day, it's an ego match. And I think what Trump did on Friday was essentially check China's ego. 归根结底，双方都是在较量面子。我认为特朗普周五所做的，本质上是在试探中国的底线。

And quite frankly, I think a lot of stuff got lost in translation in terms of how the communication ended up playing out, which is why he kind of fixed his statements going into Sunday night. And now the market's kind of back to normal. 坦率地说，我认为很多信息在沟通传达过程中被误解了，这就是为什么他在周日晚上修正了自己的声明。现在市场又恢复了正常。

S&P 500 was at 673. It fell all the way to 647. Let me know in the chat if you bought any of the dip or if you took a swing at some of these stocks. 标普500指数曾达到673点，一路跌至647点。请在聊天中告诉我，你是否逢低买入了，或者是否尝试买入了一些这些股票。

I know a lot of people bought BMR, Amazon, Grab. Those were some of the main names that I saw. 我知道很多人买了BMR、亚马逊、Grab。这些是我看到的一些主要股票。

JP Morgan this morning said, "A, to buy the dip. B, they said the top three stocks that retail bought based on their data: Meta, Nvidia, and Robin Hood." 摩根大通今天早上说：“第一，逢低买入。第二，根据他们的数据，散户买入最多的三只股票是：Meta、英伟达和Robin Hood。”

So I mean, look, Hood went from 150 to 130. Nvidia went from 195 to 180. There were some pretty decent opportunities. 所以我的意思是，你看，Robinhood从150跌到130。英伟达从195跌到180。有一些相当不错的机会。

Bitmine went from 62 to 47. Now it's back at 56. The broader point is this is a market that is hard to deny the earnings growth, which we'll talk about in a bit. Bitmine从62跌到47，现在又回到了56。更广泛的观点是，这是一个很难否认其盈利增长的市场，我们稍后会谈到这一点。

The Fed getting ready to cut rates, which is also going to be very important for earnings growth, and these random one-off tweets that might feel like it's destroying the market in the short term. 美联储准备降息，这对盈利增长也至关重要，而这些随机的一次性推文短期内可能感觉像是摧毁市场。

When the VIX (Volatility Index: 波动率指数，衡量市场恐慌程度) spikes up by 30%, the takeaway on this is that when the VIX spikes the way it spikes, just like we saw in April, it usually ends up being a buying opportunity. 当VIX指数飙升30%时，我的看法是，VIX指数如此飙升，就像我们在四月看到的那样，通常最终会成为一个买入机会。

To have a prolonged downturn, you need the VIX to slowly go up every day. When it happens all at once, it's likely peak panic, peak fear. 要出现长期下跌，VIX需要每天缓慢上涨。当它一次性飙升时，很可能是恐慌和恐惧达到顶峰。

You end up buying the dip. And for those that did, you ended up not doing too bad. So let me know if you bought the dip. 你最终会逢低买入。对于那些这样做了的人，你们的结果还不错。所以请告诉我你是否逢低买入了。

And it seems like the markets are starting to once again be in the most hated V-shape as they were back in April. 市场似乎又开始呈现出四月份时那种最令人讨厌的V形走势。

OpenAI 的 AI 合作与算力需求

All right, next story we've got is Broadcom and OpenAI. So this was a pretty big deal today. I didn't expect to see this deal, but we saw it. 好的，下一个故事是博通和OpenAI。所以今天这是一个相当大的新闻。我没想到会看到这笔交易，但我们看到了。

Last week, OpenAI partnered with AMD, a six-gigawatt deal. The terms of the contract were that AMD would get around, call it, 70 to 80 billion of revenue, probably upwards of 100 billion of revenue from OpenAI over the life cycle of the deal. 上周，OpenAI与AMD合作，达成了一项6吉瓦的交易。合同条款是，在交易生命周期内，AMD将从OpenAI获得大约700亿至800亿美元的收入，甚至可能超过1000亿美元。

OpenAI would have to deploy hundreds of thousands of AMD MI450 chips. And as a result, OpenAI would get 160 million shares or warrants of AMD stock at a cent each, effectively for free, which would be about 10% of the company, which is pretty cool, right, for OpenAI to own 10% of AMD. OpenAI将需要部署数十万个AMD MI450芯片。作为回报，OpenAI将以每股一美分的价格获得1.6亿股AMD股票或认股权证，实际上是免费的，这将占AMD公司约10%的股份。OpenAI能拥有AMD 10%的股份，这相当酷，对吧？

And you have to ask yourself, is Lisa Su kind of not in the best position of leverage and negotiation if she has to give up 10% of her company? 你不得不问自己，如果Lisa Su不得不放弃公司10%的股份，她是不是在杠杆和谈判方面没有处于最佳位置？

But regardless, the stock went up 35% in a day. If you've been holding AMD, I mean, you've done very well. 但无论如何，该股一天之内上涨了35%。如果你一直持有AMD，我的意思是，你做得非常好。

That stock has been dubbed the "advanced money destroyer," and it turned into the "advanced money duplicator" literally, and it quite frankly made a lot of people that follow this channel in the chat millionaires overnight. 那只股票曾被称为“高级财富毁灭者”，而它却字面意义上变成了“高级财富复制者”，坦率地说，它让很多关注本频道的聊天室观众一夜之间成了百万富翁。

So incredible story, incredible name. The week before that, OpenAI signed a $100 billion deal with Nvidia that would allow Nvidia to invest $100 billion into OpenAI rather than OpenAI getting a percentage of Nvidia's company. 所以，这是个不可思议的故事，不可思议的名字。在那之前一周，OpenAI与英伟达签署了一项1000亿美元的协议，允许英伟达向OpenAI投资1000亿美元，而不是OpenAI获得英伟达公司的股份。

Today, OpenAI came out with an announcement that they are now partnering with Broadcom. And the idea of this partnership is that it's going to be a 10-gigawatt data center buildout, which is a massive amount. 今天，OpenAI发布公告称，他们现在正与博通合作。这项合作的构想是建设一个10吉瓦的数据中心，这是一个巨大的量。

That's four gigawatts more than what they did with AMD. And it's going to be custom ASIC chips (Application-Specific Integrated Circuit chips: 专用集成电路芯片，为特定用途设计的芯片) that Broadcom's going to be delivering to OpenAI. 这比他们与AMD的合作多出四吉瓦。博通将向OpenAI提供定制的ASIC芯片。

OpenAI did a partnership with Broadcom leadership today as well. And basically, in the podcast, Sam Altman said, "Even if we had 30 gigawatts of data, it would still not be enough for the amount of demand that we see coming through." OpenAI今天也与博通领导层进行了合作。基本上，在播客中，Sam Altman说：“即使我们有30吉瓦的数据，对于我们预见到的需求量来说仍然不够。”

Greg Brockman, the president of OpenAI, also said, "We don't think the industry and the broader landscape of people that are interested in AI understand the computational challenges that are necessary to actually build out what we think will inevitably be artificial general intelligence (AGI: 通用人工智能，指能够理解、学习或应用任何人类智力任务的AI)." OpenAI总裁Greg Brockman也表示：“我们认为，业界以及更广泛对AI感兴趣的人，并不理解实际构建我们认为终将成为通用人工智能（AGI: 指能够理解、学习或应用任何人类智力任务的AI）所需的计算挑战。”

What is the takeaway for investors? First of all, if you're in Broadcom, congrats. Stock was up 10% on the day. 对投资者来说，这意味着什么？首先，如果你持有博通，恭喜你。该股当天上涨了10%。

If you're in AMD last week, congrats. Stock was up 30%. If you're in Nvidia, the stock was stuck at 170. This OpenAI deal got them up to around the 190s, so not too bad. 如果你上周持有AMD，恭喜你。该股上涨了30%。如果你持有英伟达，该股曾停滞在170美元，OpenAI的这笔交易让它们涨到了190美元左右，所以还不错。

And if you're in Oracle at 230 or anywhere below 230, this deal with OpenAI, the 350% increase in remaining performance applications pumped them up to 350. 如果你持有甲骨文股票，在230美元或230美元以下买入，那么与OpenAI的这笔交易，加上剩余性能应用350%的增长，使它们飙升至350美元。

Now the stock's at 300, but obviously, OpenAI has done very well for Oracle. The takeaway is if you are in any of these AI names, I think the first thing to understand is that OpenAI is at the center of all this. 现在股价在300美元，但显然，OpenAI对甲骨文的业绩贡献巨大。关键是，如果你投资了任何这些AI股票，我认为首先要明白的是，OpenAI是所有这些的核心。

If you're an Oracle, Broadcom, Nvidia, AMD, Micron, SMCI, all the other derivative plays inside of that semiconductor ecosystem, if OpenAI doesn't work, we're going to have some issues. 如果你是甲骨文、博通、英伟达、AMD、美光、SMCI以及半导体生态系统内所有其他衍生投资的持有者，如果OpenAI不成功，我们就会遇到一些问题。

So I think the first thing to take away is that OpenAI is one of the most important companies in the AI landscape. There's a reason they're worth $500 billion. 所以，我认为首先要明白的是，OpenAI是AI领域最重要的公司之一。它们价值5000亿美元是有原因的。

Whether you love Sam Altman or hate him, it has to work. Second of all, there's a chart that has been floating around that I showed in the market open for the past couple of days. 无论你喜欢萨姆·阿尔特曼还是讨厌他，它都必须成功。其次，有一张图表最近几天一直在流传，我在市场开盘时展示过。

800 million weekly active users are now on ChatGPT. It took the internet, the whole worldwide web, 13 years to get to 800 million users. It's took ChatGPT two and a half. 现在ChatGPT拥有8亿周活跃用户。整个互联网，即全球万维网，用了13年才达到8亿用户。而ChatGPT只用了两年半。

So the level of growth that we've seen in usage, and that's just ChatGPT, that's not Gemini, Xi, Anthropic. I mean, the level of growth we're seeing is exponential. I don't think we've ever seen that. 因此，我们看到的使用量增长水平，这还只是ChatGPT，不包括Gemini、Xi、Anthropic。我的意思是，我们看到的增长是指数级的。我认为我们从未见过这样的情况。

I mean, I know we have never seen this type of growth before in technology just through the raw data. 我的意思是，我知道我们从未在技术领域见过这种类型的增长，仅仅从原始数据来看。

And then the creative financing that OpenAI is engaging with in all these deals to be able to lock in all these contracts to me is because Sam Altman said a couple of years ago he needs a trillion dollars. 对我来说，OpenAI在所有这些交易中采用的创造性融资方式，以便锁定所有这些合同，是因为山姆·阿尔特曼几年前说过他需要一万亿美元。

He's not going to get a trillion dollars handed to him, but he's going to get into a lot of these deals that are very creative and financially engineered in order to get that trillion dollars. 他不会直接获得一万亿美元，但他会通过许多极具创意和金融工程的交易来获得这一万亿美元。

If Sam Altman and OpenAI are right that the level of demand they are anticipating is unprecedented, and that is why they are securing all these massive levels of deals when it comes to gigawatts and gigawatts of data centers, which, by the way, helps Iran, CoreWeave, Nebulas, Bitfarms, CleanSpark, all the other companies, Galaxy Digital, Marathon, the Bitcoin mining companies that have transitioned into the nebulas of data centers. 如果Sam Altman和OpenAI的判断是正确的，即他们预期的需求水平是前所未有的，这就是为什么他们在吉瓦级数据中心方面获得了所有这些大规模交易，顺便说一下，这有助于Iran、CoreWeave、Nebulas、Bitfarms、CleanSpark、所有其他公司、Galaxy Digital、Marathon等从比特币挖矿公司转型为数据中心云服务的公司。

And now they're completely turning around their business models to supply the demand to the hyperscalers. Obviously, it helps Google, Microsoft, and Amazon if there's that much demand. 现在他们正在彻底转变商业模式，以满足超大规模云服务提供商的需求。显然，如果需求如此之大，对谷歌、微软和亚马逊都有利。

It means the story continues. If you're in those stocks, obviously, you've got to keep up with the valuations and execution of those companies. 这意味着这个故事还在继续。如果你持有这些股票，显然，你必须关注这些公司的估值和执行情况。

But the broader macro theme for AI based on these four OpenAI deals—Oracle, AMD, Nvidia, and Broadcom—that we've seen over the past four weeks, it doesn't seem like it's slowing down. 但基于过去四周我们看到的OpenAI与甲骨文、AMD、英伟达和博通的这四项交易，人工智能的宏观主题似乎并未放缓。

Tom Lee 大举增持以太坊：数字资产的机构化

All right, next topic for the day. BMR, Tom Lee. He is buying more Ethereum (以太坊: 一个开源的区块链平台，以其智能合约功能而闻名). 好的，今天的下一个话题。BMR，Tom Lee。他正在购买更多的以太坊。

It took me a while to fully understand the digital asset treasury thesis. Tom Lee was nice enough to come on the market open, and I think a lot of you guys got to watch him on the show explain what he's doing. After that, it kind of started making a lot more sense to me. 我花了一段时间才完全理解数字资产储备的理论。Tom Lee非常友好地来到市场开盘节目，我想你们很多人都观看了他在节目中解释他的做法。在那之后，我开始觉得更有道理了。

There's two reasons I'm excited about Ethereum, and those reasons have been really well articulated by Tom Lee on like a hundred podcasts over the past couple months, which is stablecoins (稳定币: 价值与法定货币或黄金等资产挂钩的加密货币，旨在减少价格波动) and tokenization (通证化: 将现实世界资产的权利转化为区块链上的数字代币). 我对以太坊感到兴奋有两个原因，这些原因在过去几个月里Tom Lee在一百多个播客中都阐述得非常清楚，那就是稳定币和通证化。

If you believe that Wall Street wants to tokenize traditional financial assets, that's happening on Ethereum; that's a reason to be bullish on Ethereum. 如果你认为华尔街想要将传统金融资产通证化，这正在以太坊上发生；这是看好以太坊的一个理由。

If you believe that stablecoins are going to be a new way that we transact and that money gets settled in different countries, cross-border payments, etc., that's going to be done on Ethereum. 如果你认为稳定币将成为我们交易的新方式，以及资金在不同国家进行结算、跨境支付等，那也将通过以太坊完成。

In fact, the stablecoin market cap right now is 305 billion. 159 billion of that total stablecoin market cap supply is on Ethereum. 事实上，目前稳定币的市场总市值是3050亿美元。其中1590亿美元的稳定币供应量都在以太坊上。

So, in a nutshell, the reason I'm bullish on Ethereum and the reason I'm starting to learn more about Ethereum is because Wall Street, Robin Hood, PayPal, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock—they are all getting excited about Ethereum. 所以，简而言之，我之所以看好以太坊，并开始更多地了解以太坊，是因为华尔街、Robin Hood、PayPal、摩根大通、高盛、贝莱德——他们都对以太坊感到兴奋。

And when Wall Street gets excited, you've got trillions of dollars that are ready to institutionalize the asset. 当华尔街感到兴奋时，就有数万亿美元准备将这种资产机构化。

BMR is just Tom Lee institutionalizing the asset at a faster pace than any of us can by issuing stock to shareholders at a premium, a premium to your net asset value (NAV: 净资产价值，指公司资产减去负债后的价值). BMR只是Tom Lee以比我们任何人更快的速度将这种资产机构化，通过以高于净资产价值（NAV: 指公司资产减去负债后的价值）的溢价向股东发行股票。

And based on that net asset value premium, he is able to buy more Ethereum because he's able to dilute stock and issue stock. 基于这种净资产价值溢价，他能够购买更多的以太坊，因为他能够稀释股票并发行股票。

And as Ethereum rises, the premium on the NAV rises as well. We've seen this story play out with MicroStrategy. 随着以太坊上涨，净资产价值的溢价也会随之上升。我们已经在MicroStrategy身上看到了这个故事。

Bitcoin went up 10x. MicroStrategy went up 30x since MicroStrategy started implementing the strategy, and it has worked out really well. 比特币上涨了10倍。自MicroStrategy开始实施该策略以来，MicroStrategy上涨了30倍，而且效果非常好。

Today, Tom Lee came out and said they have 3 million Ethereum. They bought 202,000 Ethereum over the 3% drawdown that we got from the Trump Truth Social China Post. 今天，Tom Lee宣布他们持有300万以太坊。在特朗普Truth Social中国帖子引发的3%下跌期间，他们购买了20.2万枚以太坊。

That probably got them to buy Ethereum at around that $3,700-$3,800 price range. And they now have more than half the supply of Ethereum. 这可能让他们以大约3700美元至3800美元的价格区间购买以太坊。他们现在持有的以太坊供应量已超过一半。

They're trying to get to 5%, or sorry, they have 2.5% of their 5%. So they're halfway towards their full supply of getting to that alchemy of 5%. 他们正努力达到5%，或者说，他们已经达到了5%目标中的2.5%。所以他们已经完成了达到5%总供应量的一半。

The alchemy of 5% is essentially this concept by Tom Lee of saying, "Hey, we can start staking when we get 5% of Ethereum, and we can start lending out Ethereum. We can start building applications on top of the Ethereum network that we're building." 5%的炼金术本质上是Tom Lee提出的一个概念，他说：“嘿，当我们持有5%的以太坊时，我们就可以开始质押以太坊，我们可以开始借出以太坊。我们可以在我们正在构建的以太坊网络之上开始构建应用程序。”

And so at its core, he wants to get to 5% of Ethereum. I think he's going to get there pretty soon. I mean, it looks like by February, March, if he continues this pace of buying and if Ethereum tends to do well. 所以其核心是，他想达到5%的以太坊持有量。我认为他很快就会实现。我的意思是，看起来如果他继续以这种速度购买，并且以太坊表现良好，到二月或三月他就能达到目标。

He has a public price target of 10 to 12,000 by the end of the year. I don't know if that's going to happen. 他公开表示到年底以太坊价格目标是1万到1.2万美元。我不知道这是否会实现。

I don't know if his Bitcoin price target of 200,000 is going to happen. If it does happen, I would be very happy. 我不知道他20万美元的比特币价格目标是否会实现。如果实现了，我会非常高兴。

I have a large Robin Hood position. Robin Hood would probably do very well if those assets go up. But at its core, I think Ethereum long-term will be worth more than what it is today at 4,000. 我持有大量的Robin Hood头寸。如果这些资产上涨，Robin Hood可能会表现非常好。但从核心来看，我认为以太坊的长期价值将超过今天4000美元的水平。

And these dips are just opportunities for Tom Lee to load up. If Ethereum goes up, he's able to issue more stock, able to buy more Ethereum. 而这些下跌只是Tom Lee增持的机会。如果以太坊上涨，他就能发行更多股票，购买更多以太坊。

And if Ethereum goes up long-term, you're going to have that NAV. Just like a company would have a price-to-earnings, right? 如果以太坊长期上涨，你就会拥有那个净资产价值。就像一家公司会有市盈率一样，对吧？

The reason you pay a high price-to-earnings on a company that's growing really fast is because, A, they're growing really fast. B, the quality of the company warrants a higher multiple that you pay to access their earnings. 你愿意为一家快速增长的公司支付高市盈率的原因是，首先，它们增长非常快；其次，公司的质量值得你支付更高的倍数来获取其收益。

In the context of Bitmine, the velocity at which they're able to buy Ethereum warrants the ability and their ability to raise money, which again is not easy to do. 就Bitmine而言，他们能够购买以太坊的速度证明了其融资能力，而这并非易事。

There's a lot of digital asset treasury companies out there. It's not that easy to raise money and then execute the deployment of that capital in a way that Bitmine has done. 市面上有很多数字资产储备公司。要像Bitmine那样筹集资金并有效地部署资本并不那么容易。

A lot of that being the Tom Lee premium. He is a guy who gets people to believe in the thesis. 这很大程度上归因于Tom Lee溢价。他是一个能让人相信这种理论的人。

And you kind of need people to believe in that thesis in order to have that premium against your net asset value, which now is $12.9 billion. 而你需要人们相信这个理论，才能获得相对于你净资产价值的溢价，目前这个溢价是129亿美元。

He's able to do it. And as a result, because he's able to do it, I continue to trust Tom Lee, continue to hold on to my Bitmine. 他能够做到。因此，因为他能够做到，我继续信任Tom Lee，继续持有我的Bitmine。

And now they have 2.5% of the entire supply of Ethereum that's out there. 现在他们持有市面上以太坊总供应量的2.5%。

霍华德·马克斯：市场并非泡沫

All right, next story today. Howard Marks. So this was pretty incredible. If you know anything about Howard Marks, he is a value investor. 好的，今天的下一个故事。霍华德·马克斯。这相当不可思议。如果你对霍华德·马克斯有所了解，他是一位价值投资者。

He is one of the best value investors of all time. He is someone I looked into very deeply because he does have a massive position in Grab. 他是有史以来最优秀的价值投资者之一。我深入研究了他，因为他确实在Grab公司持有大量股份。

Grab is a name that I am pretty excited about. I have a pretty big position. A lot of you guys know my thesis on Grab. If you haven't read it, grabthesis.com, you can easily read the thesis. Grab是我非常看好的一家公司。我持有相当大的仓位。你们很多人都知道我对Grab的看法。如果你还没读过，可以去grabthesis.com轻松阅读。

By the way, my deep dives on Substack, they'll be launching this week. So amitsdeepdives.com for those that want to subscribe. Free to subscribe. No paywall. 顺便说一下，我在Substack上的深度分析，本周就会上线。想要订阅的朋友可以访问amitsdeepdives.com。免费订阅，没有付费墙。

You'll be able to get all my deep dives, which is my long-term written research that's going to be out starting this week. 你将能够获得我所有的深度分析，那是我从本周开始发布的长期书面研究。

Howard Marks is someone I started studying because of his interest in Grab. And so I'm like, "Okay, let me get to know Howard Marks." 我开始研究霍华德·马克斯，是因为他对Grab的兴趣。所以我想，“好吧，让我了解一下霍华德·马克斯。”

And over the course of the past three months, I really got to understand Howard Marks. Last month, he did an interview on Bloomberg. 在过去三个月里，我真正了解了霍华德·马克斯。上个月，他在彭博社接受了采访。

And let's just say he wasn't the most excited about the state of valuations. He wasn't the most excited about the stock market. 我们可以说，他对估值状况并不那么兴奋。他对股市也并非最兴奋。

Broadly speaking, he said he's cautious and worried that there might be the early days of a bubble forming. 总的来说，他表示自己很谨慎，并担心可能正处于泡沫形成的早期阶段。

Today, I don't know what changed over the past month. And you can go watch the Bloomberg interview from a month ago. Type in "Howard Marks of Bloomberg" on YouTube and go watch the interview because this month we got a full 180. 今天，我不知道过去一个月发生了什么变化。你可以去观看一个月前彭博社的采访。在YouTube上输入“Howard Marks of Bloomberg”并观看那段采访，因为这个月我们看到了一个完全的180度大转弯。

Three things he said this morning. Number one, "I don't see mania in the market right now." 他今天早上说了三件事。第一，“我目前没有看到市场出现狂热。”

I mean, that's a pretty big statement for Howard Marks to say, "I don't see euphoric mania." Howard Marks is the guy who actually predicted the dot-com bubble (互联网泡沫: 20世纪90年代末，科技股估值过度膨胀的经济泡沫). 我的意思是，霍华德·马克斯说“我没有看到狂热的躁动”，这是一个相当大的声明。霍华德·马克斯正是当年预测了互联网泡沫的人。

He made his name during that time. So for him to say, "I don't see mania," you know, one could say it's a top signal. 他在那个时期声名鹊起。所以他现在说“我没有看到狂热”，你知道，有人可能会说这是一个见顶信号。

Another person could say, "Well, Howard Marks probably understands a little bit about bubbles." Number two, he said, "The S&P 500 is expensive," which I will agree with as well. 另一个人可能会说：“嗯，霍华德·马克斯可能对泡沫有点了解。”第二点，他说：“标普500指数很贵，”我也同意这一点。

It trades at 26 times, historically trades at 18 times, but he said, "The quality of companies are much better." 它目前的交易市盈率为26倍，历史上通常为18倍，但他表示：“公司的质量要好得多。”

So you've got him making the excuse, the same excuse that Tom Lee makes, the same excuse that your favorite equity analyst that has a 7,000 price target on the S&P is the same excuse they will make, which is like, "Yeah, it's expensive, but the quality of the companies are better." 所以他也在找借口，和Tom Lee找的借口一样，和你最喜欢的那些将标普指数目标价定在7000点的股票分析师找的借口一样，那就是：“是的，它很贵，但公司的质量更好了。”

Nvidia, Amazon is not Proctor and Gamble and Coca-Cola, so we can't be that upset about the multiple expansion that we're seeing. 英伟达、亚马逊不是宝洁和可口可乐，所以我们不能对目前看到的估值倍数扩张感到那么沮丧。

And then finally, he said, and I quote, "I'd struggle to call the market a bubble right now." 最后，他说，我引用原话：“我现在很难称市场为泡沫。”

I think it's important to cover this because Howard Marks is not some random average investor, and he's not some guy who's going to say something just for the hell of saying it. 我认为报道这一点很重要，因为霍华德·马克斯不是一个普通的散户投资者，他也不是那种为了说而说的人。

He usually speaks his mind. I mean, he's a very authentic individual. That's why a lot of people respect and value his philosophy. 他通常直言不讳。我的意思是，他是一个非常真实的人。这就是为什么很多人尊重并重视他的理念。

For him to come out and say, "I don't think we're in a bubble, and that valuations are aggressive, but they're not unwarranted, and that the S&P 500 is filled with quality companies, and I don't see stock market mania." 他出来说：“我不认为我们正处于泡沫中，估值虽然激进但并非毫无根据，而且标普500指数充满了优质公司，我没有看到股市狂热。”

I mean, one could argue there's plenty of mania happening in the market, and you know, you've got a lot of names that are very frothy that have tens of billions of dollars in market cap, don't have any revenues. 我的意思是，有人可能会争辩说，市场中存在大量的狂热，你知道，有很多非常泡沫化的公司，市值达数百亿美元，却没有任何收入。

But I think Howard Marks's argument is, "Well, if those companies go to zero, it doesn't really matter." 但我认为霍华德·马克斯的论点是：“嗯，如果那些公司归零，那其实无关紧要。”

If there was mania in Amazon, Nvidia, Microsoft, which means they would be trading at astronomically higher multiples than they are right now, Meta trades at 25 times forward earnings. That's not expensive. 如果亚马逊、英伟达、微软出现了狂热，这意味着它们的交易市盈率会比现在高出天文数字。Meta的远期市盈率为25倍。这并不贵。

Nvidia trades at 27 times 2027. That's not expensive, right? It's just not. You probably don't have a bubble. 英伟达2027年的市盈率为27倍。这不贵，对吧？就是不贵。你可能没有泡沫。

So I think it was very encouraging to see one of the biggest value investors come out today and say he doesn't think the market's in that bad of a situation from a euphoric valuation perspective. 所以，我认为今天看到一位最大的价值投资者出来说，从狂热估值的角度来看，他认为市场并非处于那么糟糕的境地，这非常令人鼓舞。

And as a result, you know, if we have good earnings and you have some of the big guys thinking that this market does make sense, maybe there's a world where the markets not only go higher, but justifiably based on the earnings growth continue to have the momentum to go higher. 因此，你知道，如果我们有良好的盈利，并且一些大人物认为这个市场确实合理，也许存在这样一个世界，市场不仅会上涨，而且基于盈利增长，有充分的理由继续保持上涨势头。

贵金属价格飙升：AI 需求与美元贬值

All right, last topic for the day. Thank you again for joining the daily recap. Hopefully, we'll be able to make sure it's efficient every single day at that five stories, three minutes each, 15 minutes an episode. 好的，今天的最后一个话题。再次感谢大家收看每日回顾。希望我们每天都能高效地完成五则故事，每则三分钟，一集15分钟。

Again, I really, really appreciate all the support, and thank you all for joining. We got that 100,000 subscriber plaque right there in the background, and it's because of you guys. 再次，我真的非常非常感谢大家的支持，也感谢大家的加入。背景中就有那个10万订阅者奖牌，这都是因为你们。

So thank you for consuming the content and for subscribing and being here every single day. Gold and silver, gold and silver and copper and all precious metals for that respect. 所以，感谢大家消费内容、订阅并每天都在这里。黄金和白银，黄金、白银、铜以及所有贵金属，就这一点而言。

Gold prices at a new all-time high today. Gold is up 65% year-to-date. Silver is up 69.65% year-to-date. Copper is up 30% year-to-date. 今天黄金价格创下历史新高。黄金今年迄今上涨65%。白银今年迄今上涨69.65%。铜今年迄今上涨30%。

I mean, it is really hard to calculate the magnitude of the move that is happening in precious metals. 我的意思是，真的很难计算贵金属正在发生的这种涨幅的量级。

And obviously, Trump has said he wants to put an emphasis on rare earth metals (稀土金属: 一组具有独特磁性、催化和光学性质的17种元素，广泛应用于高科技产品), rare earth minerals. 显然，特朗普曾表示他希望将重点放在稀土金属（一组具有独特磁性、催化和光学性质的17种元素，广泛应用于高科技产品）和稀土矿产上。

You've seen TMQ, USR, MP, all these stocks go up three to five times on the year based on Trump either taking an equity stake in those companies, Lithium Americas is another one, CRML, Critical Minerals is another one, or just signaling that they are going to pull back regulation like they did for TMQ on Friday or on Thursday, getting rid of some of the Biden-era regulations that stopped the mining of certain areas in Alaska, and TMQ went to the moon. 你已经看到TMQ、USR、MP等所有这些股票今年上涨了三到五倍，这要么是基于特朗普对这些公司进行股权投资，比如Lithium Americas是另一家，CRML，Critical Minerals是另一家，要么是仅仅发出信号表示他们将撤回监管，就像他们周五或周四对TMQ所做的那样，取消了一些拜登时代阻止阿拉斯加某些地区采矿的规定，然后TMQ就飞涨了。

So a lot of these companies don't have revenue. A lot of these companies don't have earnings. However, in this market, that's not exactly what matters. 所以很多这些公司没有收入。很多这些公司没有盈利。然而，在这个市场中，这并不是真正重要的。

Oaklo, a company that's in the nuclear space that has no revenue. It's worth 25 billion because maybe one day Trump gives them a $5 billion deal, or Microsoft gives them a $5 billion deal, because Microsoft needs a lot of energy for data centers, and these small modular reactors (SMR: 小型模块化反应堆，一种紧凑型核裂变反应堆) are going to be positioned somewhere in the nuclear ecosystem. Oaklo是一家核能领域的公司，没有收入。它价值250亿美元，因为也许有一天特朗普会给他们一笔50亿美元的交易，或者微软会给他们一笔50亿美元的交易，因为微软的数据中心需要大量的能源，而这些小型模块化反应堆（SMR: 一种紧凑型核裂变反应堆）将在核生态系统中的某个位置发挥作用。

And it might go to a Google, a Microsoft, or a Meta, or any other entity that needs a lot of energy, and then boom, Oaklo gets revenue overnight. 它可能会流向谷歌、微软、Meta或任何其他需要大量能源的实体，然后突然之间，Oaklo一夜之间就有了收入。

I think the same thing is happening with these rare earth metals and rare earth mineral companies. So then the question simply becomes, why are gold and silver running? 我认为稀土金属和稀土矿产公司也正在发生同样的事情。那么问题就变成了，为什么黄金和白银会上涨？

And I think there's two simple answers, and I would love to know your thoughts in the comments as well for why you think gold and silver are moving the way they're moving. 我认为有两个简单的答案，我也很想知道大家在评论中对黄金和白银走势的看法。

Number one, you're going to need a lot of those precious metals to build out data centers. Copper is one of the main ones that my uncle in Singapore, who's been deeply studying copper for a long time, he started talking to me a couple weeks ago and said, "Dude, all these data centers, you need a lot of copper." 第一，你需要大量的这些贵金属来建设数据中心。铜是其中主要的一种，我在新加坡的叔叔，他长期深入研究铜，几周前他开始跟我说：“伙计，所有这些数据中心，你需要大量的铜。”

And I started doing my own research, and I was like, "Shit, you do, you do need a lot of copper. You also need a lot of aluminum." 我开始自己研究，然后我就想：“天哪，你确实需要大量的铜。你也需要大量的铝。”

I mean, all these precious metals are starting to find a bid, I think, in the renewed AI capex, I guess you could say, philosophy that's being formed, which is that you need as much compute as possible. 我的意思是，我认为所有这些贵金属在重新形成的AI资本支出理念中开始受到追捧，这种理念是你需要尽可能多的计算能力。

You need as much capacity as possible, which means the prices on all these assets are getting bid up even before they're being utilized because the market already understands how much demand is coming. 你需要尽可能大的容量，这意味着所有这些资产的价格甚至在被利用之前就被抬高了，因为市场已经明白未来会有多少需求。

Which is what we're seeing with all these data center stocks that are getting excitement. The other simple argument for why they're running up is because cash is not where you want to be. 这就是我们看到的，所有这些数据中心股票都受到追捧。它们上涨的另一个简单论点是，现金不是你想要持有的资产。

Goldman Sachs came out three weeks ago and says, "Dude, if the dollar is losing purchasing power and the dollar is not really going to be the most exciting asset over the next couple years, which by the way, the dollar is down about 10% for the year, you've got to be somewhere else." 高盛三周前出来说：“伙计，如果美元正在失去购买力，而且在未来几年美元不会是最令人兴奋的资产（顺便说一下，美元今年已经下跌了大约10%），你就必须把钱投到别处。”

"You got to be in digital gold like a Bitcoin. You've got to be in an Ethereum. You've got to be in the S&P 500. You got to be in the NASDAQ. You got to be in tech stocks. Or you got to be in copper, gold, silver, precious metals that are going to do a lot better than the dollar." “你必须投资像比特币这样的数字黄金。你必须投资以太坊。你必须投资标普500指数。你必须投资纳斯达克。你必须投资科技股。或者你必须投资铜、黄金、白银等贵金属，它们会比美元表现好得多。”

I mean, to give some context, it took gold 10 years to double from 2010 to 2020. It took gold about a year and a half from 2024 January to now to double. 我的意思是，举个例子，黄金从2010年到2020年花了10年才翻倍。而从2024年1月到现在，黄金只花了一年半左右就翻倍了。

So it has taken a long time for gold to start getting this type of interest, but now you got gold basically doubling in a year and a half. And the question becomes why? 所以黄金花了很长时间才开始获得这种关注，但现在黄金基本上在一年半内就翻倍了。问题是为什么？

And I think the answer is you're going to need more and more precious metals in a variety of use cases across this entire ecosystem for AI, which is very important. But B, you don't want to be stuck in cash. 我认为答案是，在人工智能的整个生态系统中，你将在各种用例中需要越来越多的贵金属，这非常重要。但其次，你不想把钱困在现金里。

And so I would be very curious from people in the comments on, "Do you believe this gold, silver, copper, precious metals rally is real? Do you think it can survive? Do you think it can last? Is it a bubble? Does it have enough momentum to keep going?" 所以我会非常好奇评论区的朋友们会怎么想：“你认为这次黄金、白银、铜等贵金属的上涨是真的吗？你认为它能持续下去吗？它能长久吗？这是一个泡沫吗？它有足够的动力继续上涨吗？”

"Or is this a multi-decade breakout that's happening, and if rates are coming down, which means earnings are going to be not only good, which we get into bank earnings next week—bank earnings start tomorrow, so we'll talk more about bank earnings—but rates are coming down, which means you have a premium on earnings growth, and you have a premium on anything that is growing outside of the dollar, which is not growing. As the rates come down, which means the dollar is less valuable, does that mean precious metals continue to have a bid?" “或者这是否是正在发生的多十年突破，如果利率正在下降，这意味着盈利不仅会很好（我们下周会讨论银行财报——银行财报明天开始，所以我们会更多地谈论银行财报），而且利率正在下降，这意味着盈利增长会有溢价，非美元资产的增长也会有溢价，而美元本身并没有增长。随着利率下降，美元价值降低，这是否意味着贵金属会继续受到追捧？”

I mean, I would love to know what people think, but it seems like the rally in gold, silver, and copper is not stopping. 我的意思是，我很想知道大家的想法，但看起来黄金、白银和铜的涨势并没有停止。

结语

All right, thank you everybody for joining. Deeply appreciate being back for the first episode of the Daily Recap. This one was probably a little bit longer than 15 minutes. 好的，感谢大家的加入。非常感谢能回来制作每日回顾的第一集。这一集可能比15分钟长了一点。

We will try to make it as efficient as possible going forward in the future. Monday through Thursday, every day 8:00 PM Eastern, we'll be live. 未来我们会努力让它尽可能高效。周一到周四，每天东部时间晚上8点，我们都会直播。

And yeah, let's get back to the daily recap. Thank you everybody. Appreciate you all. I'll see you guys tomorrow on another. 是的，让我们回到每日回顾。谢谢大家。感谢你们所有人。我们明天再见。