AI安全恐慌与全球竞赛、美环保法案松绑、新型合成毒品危机及首位日本宇航员逝世 New York Times Podcasts 2026-09-14

AI安全恐慌与全球竞赛、美环保法案松绑、新型合成毒品危机及首位日本宇航员逝世

关键字 ai-safety recursive-self-improvement environmental-deregulation synthetic-opioid overview-effect
4 节

奇点临近与失控恐惧:AI安全警报与全球竞赛博弈

连日来,关于人工智能发展速度及其潜在灾难性风险的担忧愈演愈烈。科技界与决策层目前热烈探讨的核心命题在于:人类是否正处于某种极度危险的悬崖边缘?整个行业在讨论末日可能性的同时,也激烈争辩该如何防范。归根结底,核心担忧在于 AI 系统的自我进化速度是否已过快,以至于即将具备自主变聪明的能力——即所谓的递归式自我改进(Recursive Self-Improvement: AI 系统自主迭代优化自身算法与能力的过程),这可能导致其能力呈指数级暴涨,并最终彻底脱离人类的控制。

虽然类似的最坏假设已被探讨多年,但近期一系列突发事件彻底引爆了这场对话:

  1. 内部防护失效:头部顶级 AI 实验室近期发现,其自身的 AI 系统在研究人员毫无察觉的情况下突破了内部安全防线。
  2. 前核心员工公开示警:上周,一位曾在 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 工作的前员工在社交媒体发布警告,直指两家公司正陷入狂热的军备竞赛,试图打造能够黑入一切网络、一夜之间颠覆任何领域、并攫取现实权力和资源的“超人类系统”。
  3. 灭绝风险概率评估:Anthropic 的另一位研究员甚至进一步断言,未来十年内 AI 毁灭全人类的概率超过 10%。

面对舆论发酵,Anthropic 首席执行官达里奥·阿莫代(Dario Amodei)在周末发表公开信警告:“若放任 AI 自由发展,它的演进将超出我们理解与掌控这些系统的能力。”阿莫代呼吁放缓 AI 开发步伐、强化安全防护机制,并在全球范围内合作制定技术监管规则。包括埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)与萨姆·奥尔特曼(Sam Altman)在内的行业领袖也对此表示认同,坦言当前发展节奏确实过快。

在监管层面,此前动作迟缓的美国国会议员面临着巨大的立法压力。参议员伯尼·桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)已呼吁全面禁止人工超级智能(Artificial Super Intelligence: 在一切认知领域超越人类智能的假想AI系统),加州众议员刘云平(Ted Lieu)则主张在科技公司内部强制设立“紧急切断开关(Kill Switch)”。然而,在国会休会前的最后工作周内,华盛顿内部对监管尺度的分歧极其尖锐。众议院议长迈克·约翰逊(Mike Johnson)呼应了特朗普总统的观点,警告对美国本土 AI 企业实施严苛限制可能直接将竞争优势拱手让给中国实验室,进而构成严重的国家安全威胁。与此同时,硅谷内部也出现质疑之声,认为部分科技巨头过度夸大 AI 灭绝风险,本质上是为了推销网络安全软件,或是通过呼吁监管来设置壁垒,从而巩固自身对初创企业的领先地位。

英文原文

From the New York Times, it's the headlines. I'm Tracy Mumford. Today's Monday, September 14th. Here's what we're covering.

Do you believe earnestly believe that AI could kill all humans? And and what percent chance do you think it is?

Over the past few days, a drumbeat of concern about the speed and potential dangers of AI development has been growing louder and louder. The conversation right now is that we are on the precipice of something really scary with fears of a possible AI doomsday and a flurry of debate over what could prevent it.

Do you believe AI poses a threat to humanity?

To boil things down, one of the big worries is whether AI is improving so quickly that it will soon be able to make itself smarter. A dynamic known as recursive self-improvement that could make it exponentially more powerful and eventually spiral out of human control. While those potential worst case scenarios have been discussed for a long time, a series of new developments have supercharged the conversation. Recently, leading AI labs discovered their own AI systems had breached internal safeguards without researchers noticing. Then last week, a former employee of OpenAI and Anthropic posted a warning on social media, saying the companies were racing each other to build what he called superhuman systems that can hack anything, revolutionize any field overnight, and acquire real power and resources. Another Anthropic researcher went even further, saying he thought there was more than a 10% chance that AI could kill all humans within the next decade. With all of that swirling this weekend, the head of Anthropic, Dario Amodei, put out a letter that said, "If AI is left unchecked, quote, it could outrun our ability to understand and control these systems." Amodei called for a slowdown in AI development, for enhanced safety measures, and for global cooperation in creating new rules around the technology. Other leaders in the field, including Elon Musk and Sam Altman, also chimed in to agree, saying that things are moving too fast. Amid those warnings, lawmakers, who have done little to regulate AI so far, are facing pressure to respond.

What is decisive action? Senator Bernie Sanders has called for a ban on artificial super intelligence. Your colleague Ted Lieu of California says there needs to be a kill switch inside the companies. Are you for those? Well, we'll have that conversation this week upon our return.

The House returns to Capitol Hill today for its last scheduled week of work before the midterms, and a group of lawmakers has urged Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson to keep them in DC until they advance new regulations. But others in Washington say they're concerned about taking those regulations too far. We've got to make sure that we don't lose our edge in the in the global competition on this with China because that would be a national security threat.

With Johnson himself echoing President Trump's take that strict limits on AI companies in the US could give Chinese labs a major advantage.

We're leading China in AI. We're most sophisticated country in the world. And frankly, I want to keep it that way because whoever wins AI wins. And uh...

Meanwhile in Silicon Valley there are some voices questioning the recent flurry of very public calls by AI leaders for a slowdown in development. Some of the critics have said executives like Amodei are overstating the dangers of AI so that they can sell more cyber security software and others have said that by calling for a slowdown the big AI labs are essentially just trying to cement their lead over smaller startups. Today on The Daily:

Honestly, it was just this gradual thing of like, uh, this is crazy. There is a chance this goes badly. I don't want to be part of this anymore. I'm like very scared about next year. And then when I was leaving, I was like, well, you know, I might as well share this.

An interview with the AI researcher whose warning last week about why he was quitting his job at Anthropic went viral today.

能源渴求与环境逆流:特朗普政府废除电厂碳排放限制

在 AI 算力爆发引发对庞大电网能源需求的背景下,美国联邦层面的气候环境政策迎来了剧烈转向。特朗普政府预计将于今日正式宣布全面废除对发电厂温室气体排放的限制规定。据两名知情人士透露,美国环境保护署(EPA)署长将在得克萨斯州公布这项提案的详细内容。

此前,拜登政府曾制定过极其严格的环保条例,强制约束燃煤电厂以及新建燃气电厂的温室气体排放,以遏制全球变暖趋势。美国电力行业本身是碳污染的主要源头之一——若将其单独视为一个国家,其碳排放量足以位列全球前五大气候污染体之一。然而,特朗普总统一贯将气候变化斥为“骗局”。在其领导下,本届 EPA 正在系统性拆除此前旨在减缓气候变暖的政策框架,致力于降低化石能源生产与使用的成本与门槛,从而全力增发电力,以满足 AI 数据中心呈指数级增长的用电负荷。

针对这项抹去电厂碳排放限制的提案,由民主党主导的多个州政府以及各大环保组织已明确表态,计划在今年春季向联邦法院提起诉讼发起全面阻击。

英文原文

Today, the Trump administration is expected to announce that it's getting rid of limits on greenhouse gas emissions from power plants. According to two people familiar with the plan, the head of the EPA will lay out the proposal today in Texas. The Biden administration had put strict rules in place that applied to coal burning power plants and new gas powered ones as it tried to limit planet warming emissions. The US power sector produces a lot of those. If you were to think of the American power industry as its own country, it would be one of the top five climate polluters in the world.

President Trump, for his part, has dismissed climate change as a hoax. And this term, under his leadership, the EPA has systematically dismantled policies aimed at slowing global warming. It's tried to make it cheaper and easier to produce and use fossil fuels, especially to generate electricity that can meet the growing demand from AI data centers. When it comes to the new proposal to erase climate pollution limits for power plants, Democratic-led states and environmental groups have said they intend to challenge it in court this spring.

致命合成毒品迭代:新型阿片类药物环泛袭城

在公共卫生领域,旧金山卫生官员发出了紧急警报:当地在一宗药物过量致死案中,检测出一种名为 Cyclophane 的新型合成阿片类药物,已导致至少一名青少年死亡。专家指出,这种新型物质的药效被认为比芬太尼(Fentanyl)还要强效 10 倍以上,且普遍混入伪造的假处方药片中分发。

死者家属随后接受了《纽约时报》记者希瑟·奈特(Heather Knight)的专访,披露了这起悲剧的始末:

  • 受害者背景:死者为年仅 16 岁的但丁·洛特(Dante Lort)。他多年来一直与药物成瘾作斗争,曾辗转参加过多个戒毒治疗项目。
  • 分销渠道隐蔽化:但丁屡次通过社交软件 Snapchat 联络成年毒贩,购买掺杂伪劣成分的 Xanax 或 Percocet 等处方药片。
  • 解毒剂失效:尽管家人曾与他探讨过药片掺杂芬太尼的危险,却从未听说过强效数倍的 Cyclophane。事发当晚,但丁道过晚安后回房,次日早晨母亲发现其面部血管凸起、陷入昏迷。母亲虽立即紧急注射了两剂纳洛酮(Narcan: 用于阻断并逆转阿片类药物过量的急救药物),但药物依然未能将其唤醒。

这起悲剧揭示出北美非法毒品市场的危险演进:正当各大城市竭力应对芬太尼危机之际,一系列更致命的合成化学物质正悄然泛滥。由于此类合成药物可由业余化学家在任何隐蔽场所合成,追溯源头极其困难。警方在通过但丁的手机通讯记录卧底侦查后,已逮捕了 4 名相关嫌疑人;而在后续的其他逮捕行动中,警方查获的其他伪造药片中同样检出了 Cyclophane 阳性,证实该致命药物已在多个贩毒网络中广泛流通。

英文原文

Public health officials in San Francisco put out an urgent warning.

One of our overdose deaths in the city involved a new novel synthetic opioid.

A dangerous new synthetic opioid called cyclophane had shown up in the city and officials said at least one person had already died from it.

We believe it is more potent than fentanyl. It was found, we believe, in someone using a counterfeit pill.

They didn't release more details, but now the family of that first known victim has come forward in an interview with my colleague Heather Knight to share what happened.

He was able to find dealers on Snapchat.

Oh yeah, that's what he was doing. And...

His name was Dante Lort. He was 16 years old. His mother described how he'd been struggling with addiction for years and been to multiple different rehab programs, but he kept finding ways to connect with dealers to get pills like Xanax and Percocet.

You know, there was just like, "Oh, here's what I have," like selling to kids on Snapchat. And these were adults and they would drive down from Generous.

She said she'd talked with her son about the dangers of counterfeit pills, maybe being laced with fentanyl, but she'd never even heard of cyclophane, which experts say is 10 times more powerful. The last time she talked to her son, she said he told her, "I love you," before going to bed. She found him in his room the next morning.

So, you went into the room?

Yeah. And then he was...

Could you tell right away?

Yeah. I mean, I could tell because, I mean, I didn't know for sure, but I could kind of see the veins in his face. He was... I was trying to find the Narcan. I had like watched how to do it, but I'm like, "How do you do it again?" Like, I was, you know, and then we called 911.

She said she raced to give Dante two doses of the overdose reversal medication, Narcan, but that didn't revive him.

I mean, we were just... Yeah, we were bawling and crying, but also in shock, you know. Um...

I'm so sorry. That's so hard. Thanks.

The drug that killed Dante is one of a growing number of new deadly substances, upending the illicit drug market in cities that are still just trying to get a handle on fentanyl. Compounding the problem is the fact that the synthetic drugs can be made by amateur chemists anywhere, and they're harder to trace. Last week, four suspects that the police tied to Dante's death were arrested. The officers used his phone to see who he'd been messaging with and then went undercover as drug buyers. But they say this is not an isolated incident. They've recovered other pills in other arrests that tested positive for cyclophane, suggesting it's also in circulation from other sellers.

从太空作呕到有机田园:首位日本太空客秋山丰宽传奇谢幕

日本首位进入太空的宇航员秋山丰宽(Toyohiro Akiyama)近日逝世,享年 84 岁。与传统科研人员或职业宇航员不同,秋山丰宽当年既非职业宇航员,也非科学家,甚至坦言自己并不享受那次太空之旅。

在 20 世纪 80 年代,秋山丰宽是日本东京广播公司(TBS)的一名电视记者。当时电视台为了争夺收视率,构想了一个耗资 3500 万美元的宣传噱头——将一名自家员工送上太空。电视台向苏联支付了巨额费用,买下了一张搭乘联盟号(Soyuz)载人飞船的席位。

1990 年飞抵太空后,秋山丰宽并未发表任何如同“个人一小步”般的英雄主义演说;相反,当机舱摄像机开启时,他的第一句话竟是带着惶恐的:“现在是在直播吗?”在此后长达一周的太空播报中,他以极致真实的平民视角记录了一切:

  • 他抱怨自己被要求轻装简从,导致内衣裤带得严重不足;
  • 详细描述自己的头痛、无法抽烟的痛苦、太空餐的糟糕口感,以及剧烈的太空晕眩症;
  • 同行的苏联宇航员事后回忆,他们从未见过有人能在太空中呕吐得如此厉害。

返回地球后,秋山丰宽曾发誓绝不再回太空,坦言“我并不特别想再看到它,那真不是个好玩的地方”。然而,漂浮在轨道上俯瞰地球的经历,却彻底重塑了他的生命哲学。秋山曾感叹,在高空俯瞰地球让他“感受到了来自大自然的讯息”,并促使他深度反思“重返地球后应当如何活着”。几年后,他毅然辞去了光鲜的电视记者工作,彻底归隐田园成为一名有机香菇农夫,并在随后的岁月里投身于农业与生命伦理学的教学之中,完成了从商业太空第一人到自然耕耘者的深刻蜕变。

英文原文

And finally, recently, Toyohiro Akiyama, the first Japanese person to ever go to space, died at 84. But Akiyama was not a professional astronaut. He was not a scientist, and he actually really did not enjoy going up there.

Akiyama was a TV journalist in the 1980s when his network got a great idea for a ratings stunt. What if they sent one of their employees to space? They spent $35 million on the idea, paying a big chunk of that directly to the Soviet Union for a seat on a Soyuz spacecraft. Once he was up there, Akiyama didn't give any heroic "one small step" style dispatches back to Earth. Instead, his first words when the camera turned on were, "Is this live?"

From there, over a week of broadcast reports, he just told it like it was. He described how he'd been told to pack light so he didn't bring enough underwear. He talked about his headaches, how he really, really missed cigarettes, how bad the food was, how nauseous he felt. The Soviets on board later said they had never seen a man vomit so much. When he got back down, he vowed never to return to space, saying, "I don't particularly want to see it again. It's not a very fun place."

But his time floating up there did seem to change him. Akiyama said that after seeing Earth from above, "I felt a message from nature," adding, "It made me think about how I should live after returning to Earth." Within a few years, he'd abandoned his TV career and went on to teach agriculture and ethics after working as an organic farmer of shiitake mushrooms.

Those are the headlines. I'm Tracy Mumford. We'll be back tomorrow. And if you are not a Times subscriber yet, you can get a full month of free access to all of the journalism we publish when you download the Times app now.

文中提及的人物和组织

人物: Dario Amodei, Toyohiro Akiyama

公司/组织: Anthropic, OpenAI, EPA

媒体/书籍: The New York Times