拥抱“混乱的中期”:如何在变革与转型中寻找微光以实现突破 TED 2026-08-27

拥抱“混乱的中期”:变革与转型中的微光法则

在任何重大的变革或转型旅程中——无论是个人层面的职业转型、学习新技能,还是企业层面的数字化与AI技术重塑——都必然会遭遇一段充满波折与不确定性的混乱中期(Messy Middle:在变革进程中,初始的乐观与最终的成功之间所经历的充满挫折与瓶颈的阶段)。这个阶段往往发生在最初的热情和乐观消退之后,此时终点看起来依然遥不可及,即便你做对了一切,成效也可能十分缓慢。许多领导者和团队在此时会感到极度沮丧,甚至想要放弃或叫停整个转型计划。然而,这种混乱并非失败的征兆,反而是野心与大胆尝试的体现。“混乱的中期”是变革的必经之路,没有经历过痛苦挣扎的转型往往无法取得真正有价值的成果。 因此,我们不应心怀恐惧,而应积极拥抱这一阶段,将其视为变革步入正轨的积极信号。为了在这一迷茫期中生存并走向成功,我们需要学会寻找变革进程中的**“微光”**(Glimmers of Progress:指在宏大目标尚未达成时,预示着方向正确的早期、微小且具体的正面迹象),用这些微小的进步指标来维持信心,指引前进的方向。

Original English Source I snapped this photo of my daughter this summer when we had the chance to hike together on our vacation in Colorado. I know you can't see her face, but I promise she's smiling. She is so glad she made it to the top of the mountain. But actually the photo op almost didn't happen. Because after starting out with incredible optimism and excitement and joining me on this hike, she quickly began to grow tired. Her 7-year-old legs after an hour of steep terrain had had all they could take and she was getting frustrated and teary-eyed and I realized I needed to shift from hiking companion to cheerleader. I know you can do it. I've actually been to the top of this mountain and we're almost there. Of course we can turn around if you need to, but I think you're going to be glad that you made it. She was really ready to give up, but then she scrambled up that last little ledge to the top and all of that frustration faded as she saw the view and took in the sunshine. She was so proud of herself.

Now, even if you've never been hiking, which I do encourage if you haven't, I imagine you can relate to this story. Because no matter whether you've started a business, made a big career switch, or just tried to take up tennis at the age of 40. Not that I know anything about that. We all have experienced what I call the messy middle. It's that moment when the pinnacle seems completely out of reach even though you've done everything right. As a senior leader in BCG's digital and AI practice, I've worked with dozens of business leaders as they've transformed their companies using new technologies. Almost every one of these transformation journeys starts out in the same way. There's a lot of excitement, there's a lot of optimism because everyone knows this is the opportunity to do something new. But inevitably, they hit the messy middle. Maybe results are slow to materialize. Maybe their teams start to lose confidence, or maybe the market changes. It's out of their control. And no matter what the context, just like my daughter, even very seasoned executives grow frustrated in this moment. And many of them actually want to call off the transformation.

Well, as much as we want to avoid those messy middle moments, I would argue not only are they inevitable, they're a good thing. Why? Because messiness is a sign of bold ambition. Change absolutely is hard simply because it's hard. Transformation without a messy middle means you probably won't get the big results you were hoping for. And so, instead of being afraid of this moment, you should embrace it. It means you're on the right track. Okay, obviously that doesn't make it easy. We need tools to weather the messy middle successfully. And my advice is to look for glimmers of progress, small indicators that you're on the right track, even when the summit is completely out of sight.

从业务成效与团队协同中捕捉早期验证

寻找微光的第一步在于业务成效(Business Results)的早期验证。在大型多阶段转型中,我们不可能等待数年才去评估成效,而必须设计极简的实验来捕捉成功的萌芽。例如,在一项快餐鸡肉品牌的AI销量预测与库存管理工具开发中,为了缩短18分钟的备餐时间且不牺牲新鲜度,团队并没有等待一整年的系统开发和推广,而是用最原始的方式——夹子、打印的Excel表格和钢笔——直接下到门店指导员工根据预测投放鸡翅。这第一步的简易手动测试帮助门店成功缩短了服务时间,为高管团队树立了持续投入该变革的信心,并在随后的系统推广中达成了50%的效率提升。

第二处寻找微光的地方是团队协同(Team Collaboration)的氛围重塑。在另一家便利店与加油站连锁企业的AI转型中,早期调研发现中层管理者普遍感到无法参与公司决策。对此,数字首席官实施了“人人有旗帜”(Everyone Has a Flag)的扁平化沟通机制,赋予任何级别的员工在发现潜在风险或优化空间时“举旗”的权力,并要求高层领导必须予以反馈和行动。此外,高管还让普通团队成员直接向CEO汇报阶段性成果。这种从“自上而下强推变革”向“自下而上参与决策”的文化转变,成为了项目最终取得两位数高额回报前最关键的微光。

Original English Source The first place I look for these glimmers of progress is in results for the business. So, one of my clients is a fast-food chicken brand. And when we started working together, their operations were fairly slow. It took about 18 minutes to cook an order of chicken wings. And that was because they were cooking fresh chicken and not pre-cooked frozen chicken. So, I don't know if you've ever had chicken wings, but when they're freshly cooked, they are delicious. But customers were pretty unhappy because time was long. They didn't want to wait that long. We needed a way to speed things up without sacrificing quality. So, we designed an AI-powered forecasting tool that would predict how many customer orders were going to be placed and then would guide the employees in the store on how much chicken to prepare, so there was always fresh chicken when orders were placed. Great vision. The CEO knew this was the right approach. But it was going to take some time. We needed to design, we needed to build, and then we needed to scale it out. And in the meantime, the CEO had to go to all those franchisees and convince them that they should make some meaningful investments in this new technology. We didn't have a year to wait and hope that the results turned out like we expected.

So, we focused on finding glimmers of progress. We built a very rudimentary version of the tool. And then we took it on a clipboard, printed Excel sheet, and a pen. We went one night into a restaurant and we stood with the employees and we guided them on how to prepare the food. So, how about you drop 25 chicken wings into the fryer now? 15 minutes later, now drop 60 chicken wings into the fryer. That first test showed great promise. We were seeing a couple minutes shaved off their speed of service. Certainly wasn't perfect. No one wants to do this manually. But it showed the potential and it was enough to give the entire leadership team conviction that we were on the right track. In the months that followed, we kept investing in the solution, improving it, so we were seeing a 50% improvement in speed of service. And as more restaurants were testing it, seeing better and better results, franchisees grew excited, investors grew excited, and they were ready to scale to the entire system. Without that very first test and that glimmer of progress, it would have been really hard to have conviction for what became a multi-year journey.

The second place you can look for glimmers of progress is in your team, how they're working together. Another one of my clients is a gas station and convenience store chain. We worked with them on a multi-year transformation to improve most of their core business functions with AI. So things like how they priced the products in the store, how they staffed their labor and and how many people were staffed in the store, how they planned the inventory mix they were going to have. At the start of this journey together, we surveyed their team because we wanted to understand if they were going to have any points of friction. Could we get ahead of any challenges? And we found that most of their mid-level managers didn't really feel like they had a voice in how company decisions were being made. And so the chief digital officer, who was leading this, implemented a simple, powerful concept. Everyone has a flag and I need you to use it. What he meant was, no matter your role, no matter your title, if you raise a flag, senior leaders are going to listen and they will act. Within just a couple months, members of the extended working team had suggested some changes to our timeline, some different ways to think about scoping the use cases, even different ways that we could test things to make sure we were getting the best results. And the chief digital officer went a little farther. He actually had the team members, not the senior leaders, present results regularly to the CEO. This was such a significant cultural shift. And we went from people feeling like change was just being forced down into the organization to feeling like they really had a voice in how the objectives were being set. And it was that shift in the team that gave us confidence that the results we delivered were going to stick. And that was long before we saw the double-digit returns that that transformation yielded.

领导者自我蜕变与微光能量的释放

寻找微光的第三个维度在于领导力自我审视(Self-Reflection of Leadership)。在变革中,变革倡导者自身的心理与行为转变是极具风向标意义的微光。例如,在一项涉及多品牌数字化体验、邮件沟通及会员计划重构的大型项目中,某位集团首席战略官虽然拥有清晰愿景,但由于首次领导如此宏大的项目,在进度不及预期时陷入了急躁与防御心理,导致其与团队和其他高管的关系高度紧张。在意识到必须改变管理方式后,他开始主动调整领导风格,学会倾听而不是强推个人议程,并逐步建立跨部门的信任桥梁。这种在领导者自我行为模式(Leadership Behavior Patterns)上的微小转变,往往是项目走向成功的终极风向标。

无论是企业还是个人,处于“混乱中期”时,我们都应当明白,前路的无序与艰难正是变革规模宏大的明证。我们应当学会在日常中主动制造并庆祝微小的胜利,比如为团队订购纸杯蛋糕,或者向导师分享成功的喜悦。将微光转化为持续向上的能量,方能帮助我们翻越最终的岩壁,步入成功的阳光中。

Original English Source Finally, if you're in a messy middle, you can look for glimmers of progress in yourself. One of my other clients was the chief strategy officer for a group of snack food brands. And we were working with them on a large effort to rethink some of their digital app experiences, to develop better email communications, and to redesign some of the loyalty programs, not just in one of the brands, but actually multiple brands across the group. When we started working together, the chief strategy officer had a lot of conviction, a very clear vision. He was really the one advocating for this transformation. But he hadn't led anything this big, and he didn't really have any intuition on how this journey was going to feel as it unfolded. And I watched as he grew frustrated, even with his own team, because progress was happening more slowly than he wanted. When other senior members of the organization would question the approach or sometimes just express skepticism, he would go defensive. And by the midway point of the 18-month journey, his relationships were strained with most of the other leaders.

He came to the realization that he was going to have to change his approach. Because he couldn't make this successful on his own. He had to have partnership. And I watched him begin to intentionally tune his leadership style. He started working on building bridges, on bringing people along. He would show up to meetings ready to listen and not trying to push one agenda. He would work on controlling what he could control and let the organization move at its pace around him. To be honest, it didn't make the journey easier. It was a hard transformation. But that sign of progress in him as a leader actually was one of the biggest indicators that this was going to succeed for the company.

So maybe you're finding yourself in a messy middle right now, personally or professionally. Try to remember messiness is a sign that you're doing something big. You haven't reached the goal yet, but you will. Maybe you haven't won a tennis match like me, but your backhand is improving. Maybe you haven't hit the big milestone that's next on your list, but you've delivered a small win. Celebrate it. I like to buy cupcakes for my team or make a cake. Maybe you just take the time to call a mentor and share your success. Whatever you do, turn those glimmers into energy that will propel you up the mountain. Because I am very confident that when you climb over those last few rocks and you walk into the sunshine, you will be really glad that you didn't turn around. Thank you.

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公司/组织: BCG

关键字: change-management digital-transformation leadership-growth organizational-culture