纽约建筑的高昂代价
Joe Weisenthal: 假设我是一名在高层建筑或其他地方工作的建筑工人。如果我没戴头盔,从60层楼掉下来,我肯定没命了。但假设我只是受伤了。
Original English
Joe Weisenthal: If I'm a construction worker working on a Skyrise or something. And I am not wearing my helmet and I fall off a 60 storey building, I would be dead. But let's assume that I get injured.
Tracy Alloway: 可能已经死了。
Original English
Tracy Alloway: Probably be dead.
Joe Weisenthal: 我大概率会死。好吧,假设是从三层楼掉下来。或者一层楼。但我没戴头盔,尽管我的雇主说我应该戴。然后我提出索赔。**绝对责任制(Absolute Liability)**规则基本上是说,你不能在公司和工人之间划分责任,对吗?所以,即使我因为没戴头盔导致头部受伤,本应承担90%的责任,现在公司却要承担100%的责任。
Original English
Joe Weisenthal: I would probably be dead. All right. A three storey building. Yeah. Okay. One story. Okay. But I'm not wearing my helmet. Even though my employer says I should be wearing a helmet, and then I, you know, file a claim. The absolute liability rule basically says that you can't divide blame between the company and the worker. Is that right? So I'm instead of being 90% at fault for my own injury because I wasn't wearing a helmet and I got a head injury. The company is now 100% at fault.
Tracy Alloway: 没错。而在其他州,他们实行的是比较过失原则(Comparative Negligence)。这确实推高了保险成本,以至于保险公司甚至不想在纽约承保了。
Original English
Tracy Alloway: That's absolutely right. And in other states, they do comparative negligence, and it's really driving up the cost of insurance. So much so that insurers don't even want to write insurance in New York anymore.
Joe Weisenthal: 欢迎收听新一期 Odd Lots 播客。我是 Joe Weisenthal。
Original English
Joe Weisenthal: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Joe Weisenthal.
Tracy Alloway: 我是 Tracy Alloway。
Original English
Tracy Alloway: And I'm Tracy Alloway.
Joe Weisenthal: Tracy,现在大家都在谈论生活成本和负担能力。但我觉得有一件事是根本性的:无论是在建设公共交通基础设施、写字楼还是住宅,建筑成本都非常高。如果建筑成本降不下来,很难想象负担能力会有多大改善。
Original English
Joe Weisenthal: So Tracy, everyone just like going to affordability these days is the cost of living and all that stuff. But I think, you know, there's all kinds of things you can do and whatever. But it seems like one fundamental thing, which I think is probably true is whatever we're talking about, whether it's building infrastructure for public transportation, whether it's building offices, whether it's building houses, like there's various costs involved. But one is like just the cost of construction and the cost of construction is very high. It's hard to imagine affordability improving much on anything. Right?
Tracy Alloway: 绝对如此。建筑行业涉及的因素太多了:疫情后上涨的基础材料成本、劳动力成本、保险成本,还有我们讨论过多次的监管和审批流程带来的额外支出。这些因素相互强化,让一切变得越来越贵。
Original English
Tracy Alloway: So for I yes, absolutely. I can't really debate that point. But it does seem like construction is there's like one area where so many different things come into play. So you have the cost of basic materials which have gone up, especially since the pandemic. You have the cost of labor, which is also gone up since the pandemic. You have the cost of insurance. Yeah, which has also gone up since the pandemic. You have regulations which we've done many, many episodes about the added costs from the permitting process for various things. It just seems like it's a bucket where you can throw all these different factors in and then get this. I kind of like reinforces itself and just makes it even more expensive.
Joe Weisenthal: 没错,还有融资成本。随着利率上升,融资也成了一个大问题。而且建筑行业的生产力增长几乎停滞。我们还没有机器人来盖房子。我们需要了解更多关于为什么建筑成本如此之高,以及是否有解决办法。
Original English
Joe Weisenthal: Yeah, totally. And then, you know, you got you sort of hit it with the insurance, but also just like cost of financing. Right. Because like as interest rates go high. That financing that too. That's a big bucket. It's a big bucket. And like we know that construction is an area across the economy, not just in New York City. Where we talked about it with residential housing, there hasn't been a lot of productivity growth. Right? So like there's been like no productivity growth, according to at least one paper I read, I think it was a Richmond fed paper. I will have to go back and check. But it's a really unusual industry in the sense that you haven't actually seen, you know, we don't have robots building houses. We don't have, robots building houses yet. So I don't know, you know, I think we need to learn more.
劳动力与工会的影响
Joe Weisenthal: 今天我们请到了两位完美的嘉宾。Elizabeth Crowley,她是**建筑业雇主协会(BTEA)**的总裁兼首席执行官;以及 Michael Capasso,他是 CAC Industries 的总裁兼首席执行官。欢迎来到 Odd Lots。
Original English
Joe Weisenthal: Well, I'm very excited to say that we really do have two perfect guests today. We're going to be talking about the high cost of construction for more infrastructure and stuff like that. In New York City, we're going to be speaking with Elizabeth Crowley. She's the president and CEO of the Building Trades Employers Association, also known as BTEA. As well as Michael Capasso. He is the president and CEO of CAC industries, Inc.. So, Elizabeth and Michael, thank you so much for coming on Odd Lots.
Elizabeth Crowley: 谢谢邀请。我代表 BTEA 的 1200 多家承包商,他们每年完成约 650 亿美元的工作量,涵盖摩天大楼、地铁、医院和学校。
Original English
Elizabeth Crowley: Thank you for having us. Yeah. Thank you, Joe and Tracy. We are grateful for the opportunity to talk today. You know, I represent, over 1200 contractors in the BTA who are building our skyscrapers, our subways, building commercial buildings, hospitals, schools, about $65 billion worth of work annually.
Michael Capasso: 谢谢。我的公司 CAC Industries 是一家总部位于纽约皇后区的公共工程承包商。我们为纽新港务局、MTA 等公共机构工作。
Original English
Michael Capasso: Thank you, Joe and Tracy. She she's, public works heavy highway contractor based in New York City. In Queens. We work for the public agencies, Port Authority of New York, Department of Design and Construction, Department of Environmental protection. MTA. Amazing.
Joe Weisenthal: 很多人听到纽约建筑成本高,第一反应就是工会因素。你们对此怎么看?
Original English
Joe Weisenthal: Okay, let me ask the first question. Let's just get it out of the way. But, you know, your organization represents unionized workers, and I think your company is also unionized workers. A lot of people are going to hear a high cost of construction in NYC and immediately go to the union factor. What is your response to that?
Elizabeth Crowley: 我们是商业协会,成员雇佣了超过 10 万名工人。我们为身为工会承包商感到自豪。事实上,很多非工会承包商在进行“逐底竞争”。我们支付合理的福利和工资,这只是成本的一部分。我们真正想改革的是那些更可控的隐形成本,比如建筑保险。
Original English
Elizabeth Crowley: Well, our, members are employers, so they're they're really businesses. We're a business association, and our members are employing over 100,000 workers. And, we're proud that we're union contractors. You know, we're the good guys. And there are a lot of nonunion contractors out there that are racing to the bottom. We're paying for benefits and wages. And, you know, that's just part of the cost of construction. And really, what we're looking at doing is reforming costs that are more control about, you know, the costs, the hidden costs that go into construction, such as construction insurance.
Michael Capasso: 通常劳动力占总建筑成本的 30% 到 35%。在纽约,所有公共工程都受现行工资法(Prevailing Wage Laws)约束,工会费率与法律规定是一致的。所以并不是工会工资太高,而是因为他们支付了合理的工资和福利。真正的成本压力来自于延迟。
Original English
Michael Capasso: Yeah. I mean, I would say typically labor ranges 30 to 35% of the total construction cost. But getting back to your original statements about union, and sometimes people think that raises the cost of construction, I would actually take the counterargument to that. All the public works contracts in New York and the utility contracts are subject to the city or the state prevailing wage laws, which the unions rates are in line with, labor Law 220, which are in the city contracts, was the wages and benefits you have to pay the employees. So it's not the union wages that are, costing too much money. They're in line with all the rules and regulations of the city and state.
审批延迟与隐形成本
Elizabeth Crowley: 现在的市长希望将土地使用审批流程从两年缩短到六个月以内。州长也在推动环境审查的改革。环境审查有时需要几年甚至五年时间。BTEA 的一份报告显示,纽约近 10% 的建筑成本被浪费了。在加州等昂贵的州,保险成本仅占 2%,而我们在纽约要花 10% 到 12%。
Original English
Elizabeth Crowley: But we have a mayor that wants to build more abundantly. Wants to cut the time it takes to build. So the land use process from two years down to under six months, and we support that. And the stars are aligning also with the governor. She's, in her budget, going after environmental review. I mean, environmental review should only take a few months. You can see that process sometimes take well over a few years. Some, bad cases, five years. And so what, we're doing here, as, an industry leader, the BTA, we're looking to reform insurance costs so that we can not only build more abundantly, build faster, but bring down the cost. And this is a substantial cost. We found out from a recent report that nearly 10% of construction costs are wasted, in New York, as opposed to any other state, even expensive states like California. The cost of insurance is only about 2% for the total project cost, where we're spending upwards of 1,012%.
Tracy Alloway: 为什么延迟会增加成本压力?在我的家庭装修中,如果承包商晚了两周,通常只是让我心烦,成本并不会上升。
Original English
Tracy Alloway: I definitely want to talk about insurance, but you said something interesting there that just reminded me you said delays add to the cost pressure. This might be a dumb question, but why is that? Because I think back to like my own home construction projects. If I have a contractor and he's, you know, he says it's going to take six weeks, but then he gets caught up on another project and ends up taking eight weeks, that the cost usually doesn't go up. It's just frustrating for me because I have to live in a construction site.
Michael Capasso: 因为间接管理费用(Indirect Overhead)。项目经理、主管、安全总监、质量保证人员,他们的工资和费用在等待期间一直在产生。你不能把他们调到另一个项目,因为你不知道流程什么时候结束。这些成本最终都会累积到项目索赔中。
Original English
Michael Capasso: There could be design errors or omissions in the, in the bid documents. Okay. So when you actually go out to commence construction and do your preliminary work, the drawings don't match up with actual field conditions, which then result in changes to the contract. And that process can be very lengthy. While those delays are being incurred, contract or are then experiencing indirect overhead costs that are assigned to the project? Well, no productive work. Explaining that one of these indirect overhead. Costs project managers, project supervisor and safety directors, quality assurance personnel, all sorts of. So their their salaries and their fees continue to run. You can't reassign them to another project while they're waiting.
纽约独特的地理挑战
Tracy Alloway: 纽约市的布局和地理环境是否也让建筑变得更贵?比如曼哈顿是一个进出受限的岛屿。
Original English
Tracy Alloway: But when you mentioned site reviews, is there something unique or sort of inherent about the way New York City is laid out and built and its geography, that also makes it more expensive? I'm thinking, like in Manhattan, obviously we have crowded buildings in some of Manhattan on reclaimed land. It's mostly an island with few ins and outs. Right? So I imagine there are some restrictions on how much material you can actually get into the city. Does it just the physicality of the city make it more expensive?
Michael Capasso: 是的,这些都包含在合同成本中。大部分制造基地不在纽约五大区内,材料需要从新泽西或宾夕法尼亚运来。在新泽西,一辆货车一天可以送好几次货;但在纽约,由于交通和物流限制,可能一天只能送一次。
Original English
Michael Capasso: Yeah, all that's built into the contract costs. So when we're getting vendor quotes for different types of materials that will go into a construction project, most of the manufacturing base is not within the five boroughs, right? So it's coming either from upstate out on Long Island, new Jersey, maybe Pennsylvania, southern new Jersey. You have the cost of that transportation into the five boroughs. Right? So this if you're a vendor who's manufacturing somewhere in central Jersey, well, you probably can make multiple deliveries within the state of new Jersey, where maybe that same freight carrier can only make one delivery a day into the five boroughs.
脚手架法与保险危机
Joe Weisenthal: 让我们谈谈保险。什么是脚手架法(Scaffold Law)?为什么它是你们的首要任务?
Original English
Joe Weisenthal: All right, can we let's get to insurance and all of that stuff. You even brought us a nice report. Reading. Material scaffold law, economic impact, which evidently, even though on the cover of the report has a picture of a scaffold, is not about scaffold. Not just about sky. Yeah, not about scaffold per se. Per se, but. What is the scaffold law and why is this like an important priority of. Yours?
Elizabeth Crowley: 如果工人从脚手架上摔下来,或者发生任何与高度相关的伤害,纽约承包商要承担 100% 的责任。而在其他 49 个州,实行的是比较过失原则。我们的研究发现,每浪费 1 亿美元在虚假索赔上,如果重新投入经济,可以产生 1.4 亿美元的产出。像预估 70 亿美元的宾夕法尼亚车站项目,如果采用比较过失原则,可以节省超过 5 亿美元。
Original English
Elizabeth Crowley: Well, like, if, a worker was to fall off the scaffold, then the scaffold law would apply, and it's to any, height related injury. A New York contractor, New York City contractor is held 100% liable. And in 49 other states, it's comparable negligence. So what we found through that economic impact study was that every hundred million dollars that is wasted on frivolous claims, when you look at reinvesting that into the economy, there's $140 million output and that it amounts to about $55 million in wages and over 600 jobs.
Joe Weisenthal: 所以,如果我没戴头盔从一层楼掉下来受了伤,即使公司规定必须戴头盔,根据绝对责任制,公司仍要承担 100% 的责任,而不能因为我没戴头盔而分担责任?
Original English
Joe Weisenthal: So just so we understand the difference between comparative negligence and absolute liability. So if I'm a construction worker working on a sky rise or something, and I am not wearing my helmet and I fall off a 60 story building, I would be dead. But let's assume that I get injured. Probably be dead. If I would probably be done. All right. Three story building. Yeah, okay. One story. Okay. But I'm not wearing my helmet. Even though my employer says I should be wearing a helmet, and then I, you know, file a claim. The absolutely liability rule basically says that you can't divide blame between the company and the worker. Is that right? So instead of being 90% at fault for my own injury because I wasn't wearing a helmet and I got a head injury, the company is now 100% at fault.
Elizabeth Crowley: 没错。这推高了保险成本,以至于保险公司都不想在纽约承保了。
Original English
Elizabeth Crowley: That's absolutely right. And in other states, they do comparative negligence. And it's really driving up the cost of insurance, so much so that insurers don't even want to write insurance in New York any more.
Michael Capasso: 我们现在几乎没有议价能力。大型保险公司认为纽约是最不利的市场。如果他们承保,免赔额会非常高。30 年前,免赔额可能是 2.5 万美元,现在每次事故可能高达 50 万或 75 万美元。这些成本最终都会反映在公共工程的投标价格中。
Original English
Michael Capasso: So I mean, there's zero purchasing power. Contractors make a significant investment in safety. But when we go to renew our insurance every year and the large insurance carriers look at what this, this market for them is considered one of the or the least favorable market to right insurance, so much so that carriers don't even want to write insurance in this market anymore. And if they do, deductibles are really high. Rates are really high. So now contractors carry the cost of those deductible payouts in their bids, which goes into these public works bid numbers.
欺诈、诉讼与改革契机
Elizabeth Crowley: 纽约是唯一保留这项法律的州。伊利诺伊州在 1995 年废除了它,结果其死亡率反而下降了。在纽约,脚手架相关的身体伤害索赔结算额是其他索赔平均水平的 6.5 倍。
Original English
Elizabeth Crowley: So New York is the only city or only state city state that still has this law in place. Is that right? Yes. What happened in other states when we saw it go away? So the last state to reform the so-called staff scofflaw absolute liability standard was Illinois in 1995. An interesting thing in Illinois. Their safety, the number of fatalities declined after they put a comparative negligence model. In New York for Scott, for lost, the bodily injury claim settlements for scaffolds are six and a half times the average of other claims settlements.
Joe Weisenthal: 如果大家都同意这是一项过时的法律,那是谁在阻碍改革?
Original English
Joe Weisenthal: So if everyone agrees that this is an antiquated law, who's actually standing in the way.
Elizabeth Crowley: 主要是诉讼律师(Trial Lawyers),这对他们来说是一棵摇钱树。但现在情况正在发生变化,政府领导人开始关注其中的欺诈和滥用行为。一家保险公司最近通过调查揭露欺诈,撤销了许多索赔,节省了超过 20 亿美元。
Original English
Elizabeth Crowley: You have some, trial lawyers, and they really it is a catch count for the trial. But we have a real opportunity. Not just because we have this economic impact, report that shows us exactly how much we're spending because government leaders are finally talking about the fraud and abuse that's happening. One insurance company, Tradesman Insurance, they filed five different Rico cases in recent years. They say that because they were able to get so many claims dropped by showing the fraud that there were bad actors, they saved over 2 billion dollars.
技术与人工智能的未来
Joe Weisenthal: 建筑行业的生产力一直是个难题。你们认为 AI 会改变这一切吗?
Original English
Joe Weisenthal: Michael, you mentioned AI. So now I have to ask, you know, we we dug in a little bit into construction productivity at the beginning of this conversation. And, you know, I think construction is largely done now as it was probably like 20 or 30 years ago. But how confident are you that it's going to actually stay that way forever?
Michael Capasso: 我不认为 AI 会取代工人,但使用 AI 的工人会取代不使用 AI 的工人。我们正在探索如何利用 AI 更快地分析数据和优化流程。虽然我还没用上能绑钢筋的机器人,但这种技术已经存在了。
Original English
Michael Capasso: I think so. And look, I don't think it's going to replace the workforce. AI is in replacing employees. But employees who use AI will replace the employees who aren't. We at our offsite strategy session last week and one of our quarterly priorities, yeah, is all around implementing artificial intelligence in our processes and workflows. So really, how can we get information sooner. I mean, I have friends who have robots that can tie rebars now with wire, right?
Elizabeth Crowley: 还有保险公司要求在工地安装摄像头。他们利用 AI 分析一天的监控录像,识别危险动作。这不仅是为了防止欺诈,也是为了纠正工人的行为,降低风险。
Original English
Elizabeth Crowley: Interestingly enough, you know, I mentioned Zurich earlier is Zurich Insurance will only, insure a project in New York if there are cameras watching. Now, they use AI after a day's work to study any movement that was dangerous. It's for surveillance to stop fraud and abuse from happening was really to correct workers to and reduce risk.
Joe Weisenthal: 非常感谢两位来到 Odd Lots。这是一场非常有趣的对话。
Original English
Joe Weisenthal: Michael. Elizabeth, thank you so much for coming on. I'd love those. A lot of fun. Thank you.
Tracy Alloway: 谢谢。我学到了很多关于绝对责任制的知识。
Original English
Tracy Alloway: Thank you. Yeah, that was super interesting. It was great. Tracy. That was a fun conversation I like it felt like a re learned about the city in some way. You know what I'm saying? I learned a lot about absolute liability.