向富人征税以应对气候变化:一项全球正义的呼吁 TED 2025-11-05

气候变化的隐形杀手:贫困国家的生命代价

多数时候,当我们思考气候变化时,脑海中会浮现出野火、风暴和洪水的画面。

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So most of the time when we think about climate change, we conjure these images of wildfires and storms and floods.

但现实是,仅仅是温度升高就能致命。
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But the reality is that temperature alone kills.

尤其是在非洲,这种现象尤为突出。
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And in particular, right here in Africa.

我们不会在法国或美国的首都看到它,因为这主要发生在已经炎热的贫困国家,那里的公民没有空调或办公室工作的保护。
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We don't see it in the capital of France or the US, because it's mostly happening in poor countries, which are already hot, and where citizens don't have the protection of air conditioning or office jobs.

根据最准确的估计,到本世纪末,即2100年,仅仅因为气温升高,将有额外六百万人死亡。
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By the best estimates, by the end of this century, in 2100, an extra six million people will die just because of increased temperature.

所有这些死亡都将发生在低收入或中等收入国家。
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And all of these deaths will take place in low- or middle-income countries.

我们从美国、印度、中国排放的每一吨碳,都会在大气中停留很长很长的时间,导致地球变暖,从而夺走生命。
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Every ton of carbon that we emit from the US, from India, from China, stays in the atmosphere for a very, very, very long time, contributes to the warming of the Earth and therefore, kills people.

量化生命损失:气候排放的惊人代价

现在,为了具体起见,我们尝试给这些逝去的生命赋予一个美元价值。

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Now let's try, for the sake of concreteness, to put a dollar value on these lives cut short.

我知道你在想什么,经济学家来了,我们不能真正给生命定价。
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Now I can see what you're thinking, the economist comes, you know, we cannot really price a life.

但现实是,我们一直在这样做。
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The reality is, we are doing it all the time.

作为个体,我们考虑骑自行车事故的死亡概率和头盔的成本,然后权衡两者。
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As individuals, we are thinking about, you know, the probability of dying in a bicycle accident and the cost of a helmet and we kind of weigh one against the other.

我们的政府也这样做,例如,在考虑可以保护高速公路上人们生命的投资成本时。
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And our governments also do it. For example, when thinking about the cost of investment that can protect the lives of people on a highway, for example.

墨西哥,其收入水平大致相当于世界平均水平,使用大约200万美元作为**统计生命价值**(Value of a statistical life: 用于衡量避免死亡风险的经济价值)。
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Mexico, which has about the world's average income, uses a value of a statistical life of about two million dollars.

因此,以200万美元的统计生命价值作为基准,我们计算了因排放而造成的生命损失的美元价值。
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So using this number of two million dollars for a value of a statistical life, as a benchmark, we calculated the dollar value of the life lost because of emissions.

其成本是惊人的。
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And the costs are staggering.

每年,**经济合作与发展组织**(OECD: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development)的温室气体排放给低收入和中等收入国家造成1.7万亿美元的损失。
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Every year, the greenhouse gas emissions of the OECD inflict a cost of 1.7 trillion dollars -- with a T -- on low- and middle-income countries.

而且,这些成本在最贫困的国家中是最高的。
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And the costs are the largest in the countries that are the poorest.

以尼日尔为例,这个国家的国内生产总值(GDP)每年不到650美元。
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Take Niger, a country where the GDP is just shy of 650 dollars a year.

经济合作与发展组织排放每年给尼日尔造成的损失高达9000美元。
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The yearly damages from the OECD emissions in Niger are 9,000 dollars.

气候资金的困境与道德债务

与此同时,从一次联合国气候变化大会(COP: Conference of the Parties)到另一次,富裕国家在气候资金问题上对贫困国家斤斤计较,无论是用于减缓还是适应。

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Meanwhile, from COP to COP, rich countries are nickel and diming the poor countries for the climate money, for mitigation, for adaptation.

我们本应从巴库到贝伦,从3000亿美元到1.3万亿美元,但如果我们继续使用空泛的口号和复杂的方案,这很可能是一条通往虚无的道路。
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We are supposed to be on the road map from Baku to Belem from 300 billion to 1.3 trillion, but it is likely to be a road to nowhere if we continue with buzzwords and with hairy schemes.

资金难以筹集,甚至更难使用。
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The money is difficult to raise. It's even harder to spend.

来自印度和非洲的气候谈判代表已经厌倦了与数十个机构谈判,以获取本应属于他们的资金。
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Climate negotiators from India, from Africa, are so tired to negotiate with dozens of outfits to access money that should legitimately be theirs.

因此,必须有更好的方法。
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So there has to be a better way.

我今天就是要告诉你们一个更好的方法。
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And I'm here to tell you one better way.

首先,我们何不停止拐弯抹角,尝试为我们对贫困国家的道德债务筹集1.7万亿美元?
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So first of all, how about we stop beating around the bush and try to raise 1.7 trillion dollars for our moral debt to the poor countries?

(掌声)我们能做到吗?
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(Applause) Can we do that?

是的,我们可以。
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Well, yes, we can.

但我们必须面对现实,拯救巴基斯坦一位老妇人的生命并不能带来金钱收益。
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But let's face it, there is no money to be made saving the life of an old woman in Pakistan.

而且这笔钱对于慈善事业来说也太多了。
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And this is too much money for philanthropy.

所以这笔钱必须来自公共资助的国际再分配。
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So the money has to come from publicly-funded international redistribution.

现在你看着我说:“她过去几个月可能一直与世隔绝。”
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Now you're looking at me and saying, "She probably was under the rock the last few months."

北方国家,从美国开始,但不仅仅是美国,都在削减国际承诺,而不是增加。
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Every country in the north, starting from the US, but not ending there, is cutting international commitment, not adding to them.

那我怎么能说,何不提供1.7万亿美元的新资金呢?
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So how can I go and say, well, how about 1.7 trillion of new money?

解决方案:向富人和跨国公司征税

所以我们必须从资金所在的地方获取,那就是地球上最富有的人和最大的跨国公司的银行账户。

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So we have to take the money where it is, which is in the bank accounts of the richest people on the planet and the largest multinational corporations.

现在——(欢呼和掌声)在你认为我是个危险的异类之前,我不是在谈论没收。
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Now -- (Cheers and applause) Before you think I'm, you know, a dangerous alien, I'm not talking about expropriation.

现实是,地球上最富有的人没有缴纳他们应付的公平份额的税款。
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The reality is that the richest people on the planet do not pay their fair share in taxes.

(掌声)沃伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett),他可不是共产主义者,曾开玩笑说他交的税比他的助理还少。
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(Applause) Warren Buffett, who is no communist, quipped that he paid less taxes than his assistant.

这是真的。
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And it's true.

但这不仅仅发生在美国。
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But it's not just in the US.

在全球范围内,富人有各种完全合法的手段来避免缴纳与其他人相同的税款。
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Worldwide, rich people have all sorts of perfectly legal maneuvers to avoid paying the same taxes as everybody else.

按比例计算,他们缴纳的税款可能比在座的任何人都要少,除非你是一位亿万富翁。
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Proportionately, they pay less taxes than anybody in this room, probably, unless you're a billionaire.

(笑声)对全球3000位最富有的人每年征收约3%的财富税,将筹集4000亿美元。
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(Laughter) A tax on the wealth of the 3,000 richest people in the world of about three percent a year would raise 400 billion dollars.

将跨国公司的最低税率从15%略微提高到21%,将筹集3000亿美元。
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A slight increase in the minimum tax on multinational corporations from 15 to 21 percent would raise 300 billion dollars.

我不是在做梦,因为对国际公司的税收已经存在。
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I'm not dreaming, because the tax on international corporations, it exists already.

二十年前,认为我们可以在全球范围内就这种税达成协议,似乎是疯狂的。
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Twenty years ago, it would have seemed crazy to think that we could have an agreement, worldwide, to have such a tax.

然而,在2021年,120个国家签署了一项条约,并且已经有40个国家实施了。
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And yet, in 2021, 120 countries signed a treaty, and it's already implemented by 40 countries.

它的好处在于不需要每个国家都参与。
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And what is nice about it is that it does not require every single country to participate.

例如,如果美国不参与,根据规则,法国和德国可以对美国公司在法国或德国的销售额征税,以确保它们总体上支付15%的利润税。
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If the US, for example, doesn't participate, the way the rules are made, France and Germany, for example, can tax the US companies on their sales in France or Germany to make sure that overall, they pay 15 percent on their profits.

我们对亿万富翁也可以这样做。
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We could do just the same for the billionaires.

法国和德国可以向杰夫·贝索斯(Jeff Bezos)寄送税单,万一杰夫·贝索斯不缴纳税款,他们就可以开始对亚马逊(Amazon)在法国的税款征收。
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France and Germany could send them a tax bill, say, to Jeff Bezos, in the unlikely event that Jeff Bezos doesn't pay his taxes, they could start levying money on Amazon's tax in France.

所以这是可行的。
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So this is feasible.

这已经在讨论中。
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This is already in the conversation.

巴西在担任二十国集团(G20)主席国期间将其提上议程。
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Brazil put it on the map during their presidency of the G20.

它得到了包括法国和西班牙在内的许多国家的支持,甚至巴西一些最富有的亿万富翁也支持,并写入了最终宣言。
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It made it to the final declaration with support from many countries, including France, for example, and Spain, and with support from some of the Brazilian richest billionaires.

感谢内托·塞图巴尔(Neto Setubal)。
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Thank you, Neto Setubal.

现在,它也得到了很多支持。
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Now it has also a lot of support.

70%的美国人和80%的欧洲人支持对最富有的人征税,以帮助最贫困的人应对气候变化。
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Seventy percent of Americans and 80 percent of Europeans are in support of a tax on the wealthiest people to help the poorest people cope with climate change.

如何有效利用资金:直接现金转移

但有些人有点担心,如果我们成功筹集到这笔钱,该如何使用?

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But some people are a little worried that what would we do with the money if we managed to raise it?

气候活动家担心国际机构会独占这笔钱,而富裕国家则担心发展中国家政府会将其用于自己的目的。
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The climate activists are worried about international institutions hogging it, and the rich countries are worried about developing countries' governments using it for their own purposes.

所以这里有一个简单的解决方案:直接把钱发给人们。
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So here is a simple solution. Send it straight to people.

(掌声)我们知道如何做到这一点。
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(Applause) We know how to do it.

基础设施已经存在。
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The infrastructure is already there.

最重要的是,在非洲,几乎每个人都已经拥有**移动支付账户**(Mobile money account: 通过手机进行的金融交易服务)。
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Chief of all, here, in Africa, where almost everyone has a mobile money account already.

有超过100项关于现金转移项目的**随机对照试验**(Randomized controlled trials: 一种科学实验方法,用于评估干预措施的有效性),表明人们能够很好地利用这些资金。
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There are more than 100 randomized controlled trials of cash transfer programs that show that people use the money well.

而且,这些资金不仅被善用,还有助于提高韧性。
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And moreover, the money not only is used well, but it also helps resilience.

例如,在赞比亚,当人们每月收到大约12美元的收入支持时,这不仅增加了他们的平均消费,还消除了他们通常在干旱和洪水时经历的起伏。
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For example, in Zambia, when people received about 12 dollars a month in a support income, not only did it increase their consumption on average, but it removed the ups and downs that they get with drought and flood usually.

在肯尼亚,人们利用他们获得的**无条件基本收入**(UBI: Universal Basic Income)首先改善了他们的住所屋顶,其次购买了太阳能电池板来为风扇、水泵或手机供电,从而提高了韧性和生产力。
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Here in Kenya, people used a universal basic income that they had to finance, first, a better roof over their head, and second, solar panels to power a fan, a pump or a cell phone, thus increasing resilience and increasing productivity.

对于一些非常贫困的国家,有足够的损害赔偿金来为每个人提供无条件基本收入,这样就没有人需要生活在贫困线以下。
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For some countries which are very poor, there is enough damage money to fund a UBI for everyone such that nobody has to live under the poverty line.

对于较富裕的中等收入国家,有足够的资金来提供一种保险,这样当室外温度达到35摄氏度时,就没有人需要工作。
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For richer middle-income countries, there is enough to fund a sort of insurance where no one needs to work when it's 35 degrees outside.

重建信任与气候行动的新契约

找到可靠的筹款方式来偿还我们对世界上最贫困公民的道德债务,将大大有助于修复西方与世界其他地区之间的信任。

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Finding ways to reliably collect money to pay for our moral debt to the world's poorest citizens would do a lot to repair the trust between the West and the rest.

这是非常需要的,因为现实是,气候减缓的未来在于今天贫困的国家。
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And it is badly needed, because the reality is that the future of climate mitigation is in the countries that are today poor.

即使经济合作与发展组织、美国、欧洲成功减少了排放,如果非洲、印度等国家不走上疯狂的轨迹,气候之战也将失败。
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Even if the OECD, even if the US, Europe managed to reduce their emissions, unlike the countries of Africa, India, etc. don't get into a crazy trajectory, the climate fight will be lost.

所以未来就在这里。
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So the future is here.

只有建立信任才能实现。
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And it can only be done if there is trust.

所以我们真正需要的是一个关于气候减缓和适应的新大协议。
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So what we need is really a new grand bargain about climate mitigation and adaptation.

我们需要的是这样一种情况:每个贫困国家都有权获得我们持续排放给他们造成的损害赔偿,作为这些资金的回报,他们承诺采取强有力的气候行动,包括可能实施碳定价机制。
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What we need is a situation where every poor country is entitled to the damages that our continued emissions impose on them, and in exchange of this money for their citizens, they commit to forceful climate action, including potentially carbon-pricing mechanism.

这很紧急,可行,而且公正。
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It's urgent, it's feasible, it's just.

所以,在座的各位,尤其是任何亿万富翁,无论是在现场还是正在观看我,请站起来,要求征收亿万富翁税,以实现气候正义。
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So all of you here, especially any billionaire, either in the room or watching me, please stand up and demand a billionaire tax for climate justice.

谢谢。
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Thank you.

(欢呼和掌声)
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(Cheers and applause)

📌 文中提及的人物和组织

人物: Warren Buffett, Jeff Bezos

公司/组织: OECD, Amazon, G20

媒体/书籍: TED

关键字: cash climate environment global wealth