互联网泡沫与当前 AI 浪潮的本质区别
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 你和我经历了几次泡沫。我们以前看过这部电影。嗯,这波浪潮似乎与之前的浪潮非常不同。所以,我们来谈谈这个。你担心泡沫吗?我们正看到一些类似泡沫的行为。人们……
Original English
Jason Calacanis: You and I live through a couple of bubbles. We've seen this movie before. Um and and this wave seems very different than do waves. So, let's talk about that. Are you concerned about a bubble? We're seeing bubbly like behavior. People...
马克·库班: 这不是,这不是传统的互联网泡沫,对吧?因为那时有很多公司上市,估值疯狂,人们购买它们,股票会上涨,你知道,50%、100%,而这些公司没有收入,没有流量,什么都没有。那时你打个出租车,人们都在谈论它们。是的。今天你完全看不到这种情况。所以,这并不是一个会影响这个房间里大多数人,或者美国大多数人的泡沫,但它可能会摧毁很多风投(VC)、很多基金和很多私募股权(PE),对吧?因为他们正在全力以赴(Going all in)。
Original English
Mark Cuban: It's not It's not the traditional dot bubble, right? Because back then there was companies going public getting crazy valuations and people are buying them and the stock would go up, you know, 50% 100% with companies that had no revenue, no traffic, no nothing. and you'd go get a cab back then and people would be talking about them. Yeah. And you don't you don't see that at all today. So, it's not a bubble that's going to impact most people in the room, right? Or most people um across the US, but it could just destroy a lot of VCs and a lot of funds and a lot of PE, right? Because they're going all in. I'm going all in.
旁白: App 111(AppLovin)从一个价值 8 美元的域名和零风投资金开始,成长为世界上最大的广告平台之一。现在,同样的游戏引擎正在为电子商务提供 AppLovin 广告服务。您的广告在移动游戏内运行,以全屏、无干扰的关注度触及超过十亿人。该平台寻找买家并优化利润。您设定目标,它会处理其余部分。一个厨具品牌从 400 万美元增长到 1600 万美元,实现盈利,今年有望达到 8000 万美元。今天就访问 applovin.com/allin 启动您的首个活动。
Original English
Voiceover: App 111 started with an $8 domain and no VC funding and became one of the largest ad platforms in the world. Now that same engine powers AppL ads for e-commerce. Your ads run inside mobile games reaching over a billion people with full screen distraction-free attention. The platform finds buyers and optimizes for profit. You set the target, it does the rest. One cookware brand went from 4 million to $16 million, turned profitable, and is on pace for 80 million this year. Visit apploven.com/allin to launch your first campaign today.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 以前是券商的产品经理必须表现得比数据更好,对吧,比如标普之类的。但现在你必须表现得更好才能保持资金源源不断。你必须比隔壁的基金表现得更好。他们都投资了 Anthropic 并且正在收获他们的成果,还有 SpaceX 并且在庆祝,但如果事情变糟了……
Original English
Jason Calacanis: It used to be that product managers for brokerages had to outperform the numbers, right, for, you know, the S&P or whatever. But now you got to outperform to keep the money coming in. You got to outperform the the fund next door. And they're all in anthropic and getting their outcomes and SpaceX and celebrating, but if hits the fan
马克·库班: 是的。确实是这样。我做风险投资才十多年,看到这么多人在错误的时间投资,结果就倒闭了,这真是疯狂。他们只是在顶点投资,而入场价格确实很重要。你和我一起做过很多交易,以前我们作为天使投资人,可以在公司估值 500 万、1000 万美元时进行投资,然后突然之间,要求就变成了 4000 万、5000 万、6000 万,而且产品还没上线,你会想这怎么行得通?
Original English
Mark Cuban: Yeah. It really is like I've only done venture for just over 10 years and it is wild to watch so many people who deployed at the wrong time just out of business. They just invested at the peak and entry price matters and you and I have been in a bunch of deals together and we used to get to investing companies at 5 million 10 million as angel investors and then all of a sudden the request was 40 50 60 and the product's not launched and you're like how does this work?
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 是的。而且,你知道,现在正在发生的是,市场领导者 Google 等、Meta,他们正在借入数亿美元,数十亿美元。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Yeah. And you know, and what's happening now is the market leaders, Google, etc., Meta, they're borrowing hundreds of million, billions of dollars.
马克·库班: 是的,这很有趣。
Original English
Mark Cuban: Yeah, that's interesting.
私募信贷与数据中心建设的“完美规划”
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 而且现在已经存在私募信贷(Private Credit)问题了,对吧?所以你在这个基础上叠加私募信贷,比如 Al Capital 获得所有的退款,然后你,你知道,你拥有这些有现金流的大公司,但他们把所有的现金流都花在资本支出(Capex)上,然后在此基础上又通过债券借款,对吧?这简直是在“为完美而做规划”。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: And there's already a private credit problem right now, right? So, you you you just layer on private credit like um Al Capital getting all the um refunds and then you you know, you have these huge companies that have cash flow, but there's, you know, they're they're spending all their cash flow on capex and then they're borrowing on top of that. bonds, right? That's planning for perfection
马克·库班: 这将会很困难。我们正在建造这些数据中心,你知道,如果 AI 出现了一条性能价格曲线,从而降低了电力需求,那么很多数据中心将会被改造成匹克球场(Pickleball courts)。
Original English
Mark Cuban: and that's going to be hard. And we're building these data centers and you know, if there's a price performance curve on AI that minimizes the power requirements, there's going to be a lot of data centers that are going to be turned into pickleball courts.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 有意思。因为他们就是无法让电力接通。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Interesting. Because they just can't get the power turned on.
马克·库班: 不,不仅是接通电力,每个人都认为,好吧,未来会有更多的使用量,确实会有,对吧?它会像大家预期的一样扩展,但技术上也会有突破。就像我们当年看到光纤一样,那时候人人都在铺设光纤,然后光纤的传输速度从 1GB 变成 10GB 变成 100GB,接着就再也没有光纤问题了。再也没有带宽问题了。
Original English
Mark Cuban: No, just the power just everybody thinks that okay, there's going to be so much more utilization and there will be, right? It'll just scale like everybody expects, but there's going to be breakthroughs in technological breakthroughs as well. Just like we saw fiber back in the day, it was all about putting in fiber. Then it went from 1 GB fiber to 10 to 100 gigabyte and then there wasn't a fiber problem anymore. There wasn't a bandwidth problem anymore.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 完全相反。我们当时有大量闲置的暗光纤(Dark Fiber)供人们使用,价格极其低廉。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Quite the opposite. We had dark fiber that people used. Yeah. Pennies on the dollar
马克·库班: 它们就闲置在那里,对吧?那么,怎么可能在 AI 领域和数据中心领域,我们得不到同样的价格性能提升呢?
Original English
Mark Cuban: and just sitting there, right? And how is it not going to be the case that we don't get the same price performance improvements on the AI side and on the data center side?
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 是的。而且由于现在对数据中心的各种抵触情绪,我认为这可能会保护它们。我的意思是,在未来的 10 到 20 年里承诺投入数百亿美元……
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Yeah. And then with all the hate going against the data centers, I think that could be, you know, protecting them. And I mean, spending committing tens of billions of dollars for 10 20 years going out.
马克·库班: 是的。
Original English
Mark Cuban: Yeah.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 我的意思是,没人能预测这一点。我的意思是,你刚才用了“为完美定价”这个词,我认为这确实是正在发生的事。我是说,你必须有一个假设,即我们要把,你知道,像 OpenAI 那样,把 1000 亿美元投入使用,而这不仅要在收入上收回,还必须以利润、利润率的形式收回。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: I mean, nobody can predict that. Well, I mean, you're you you used the word pricing to perfection, I think, earlier in the conversation, and that's really what's happening. I mean, you have to have a thesis that we're going to put a hundred, you know, open AI, uh, hundred billion dollars to work and that's going to come back not just in revenue, but it has to come back in earnings,
马克·库班: 利润率。
Original English
Mark Cuban: margin dollars.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 是的,它必须是盈利的。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Yeah. It has to be profitable.
马克·库班: 是的。你就是不知道,你知道……
Original English
Mark Cuban: Yes. and you just don't know, you know,
并购(M&A)、IPO 与领式期权锁定的策略
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 我再告诉你另一个关于泡沫的推论,对吧?在这次特别的泡沫中,因为它是如此由私募资本驱动,应该会有更多公司上市。虽然不是在 SpaceX 那个水平,也不是 OpenAI,不是 Anthropic,而是 1 亿美元规模的 IPO。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: and I'll tell you the other in terms the correlary for um bubbles, right? In this particular bubble, because it's so driven by private capital, there should be a lot more companies going public, not at the SpaceX level for not open AI, not anthropic, but the hundred million dollar um IPO.
马克·库班: 是上。
Original English
Mark Cuban: Yeah.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 因为如果 AI 做了它被认为会做的事——我们都知道它在颠覆性方面会带来什么。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Because if AI does what AI knows, we all we we all know what it'll do in terms of disruption.
马克·库班: 是的。那么你会想要拥有一种货币,允许你去收购所有那些公司,就像你们讨论的收购不同的法律公司一样。是的。对吧。好吧,如果你没有这种作为货币的股票,你就必须去外面融资来进行收购。而一旦发生什么变故,那些钱绝对不便宜,那些钱是非常、非常昂贵的。相反,如果你走出去……
Original English
Mark Cuban: Yeah. Then you want to have um some sort of um currency that allows you to buy all those companies like you guys were talking about buying different legal companies. Yeah. Right. Well, if you don't have that currency, the stock is currency, you're going to have to go out and raise money to do it. And if anything happens, and that money is not cheap, that money is really, really expensive. versus if you go out
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 进行 1 亿美元的 IPO 或者 5000 万美元的 IPO,并且在表现良好的情况下,你可以根据需要多次进行二次增发。但是,一旦你竞争的传统企业无法跟上,或者存在你需要的一些其他具有专业领域知识或数据的公司,就像你们刚才讨论的那样……
Original English
Jason Calacanis: and you do a hundred million dollar IPO or a $50 million IPO and you can you do a secondary or whatever as many times as you need if you're performing. But the minute that company that you're competing with that is a legacy business can't keep up or there's some other um company that has domain expertise that you need or data that you need like you guys were talking about.
马克·库班: 是的。
Original English
Mark Cuban: Yeah.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 你会希望自己处于能收购他们的位置。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: You want to be in a position to buy them.
马克·库班: 是的,这是前瞻性的想法。是的。根本没有人会这么有远见。我一直在试图告诉我的组合公司:去上市吧,老铁们。去上市。他们就是不觉得这是正确的事。
Original English
Mark Cuban: Yes, that is forward thinking. Yeah. No one is forward thinking like that at all. And I'm like trying to tell my um my portfolio companies, go public, motheruckers. Go public. They just don't think that's the right thing to do.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 好吧,还有并购(M&A),这,你知道,不想把这上升到政治高度,但你知道,当你是个创业者时,你必须在场上玩这个游戏。但并购曾经被排除在选项之外。**莉娜·汗(Lina Khan)**有一种特定的观点,那就是我们必须像《少数派报告》里的先知(Precogs)一样。我们必须预测谁在未来会成为垄断者并阻止他们。现在,情况就像是,好吧,考虑一下要与中国以及全球正在发生的一切竞争。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Well, and M&A is, you know, not to make this political, but you know, when you're an entrepreneur, you have to play the game on the field. M&A was off the table. Lena Khan had a certain perspective, which was we have to be like precogs in Minority Report. We have to predict who's going to be a monopoly in the future and stop them. Now, it's like, okay, consideration with to compete with China and everything else that's going on globally.
马克·库班: 四年内没有任何收购。我的意思是,我跟那些做企业发展(Corp Dev)的人聊天,他们都说我们被告知要退下。
Original English
Mark Cuban: Four years of no acquisitions. I mean the people I talked to who are in corporate development were like we we've been told to stand down
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 因为这不是我们所处的状况,但即便是这样,对吧,在那个规模上的合并和收购,没问题,但如果 AI 做了我们知道它会做的事,那些具有颠覆性的公司根本不需要是庞大的公司。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: because it's not where we are but even so right it's you know with mergers and acquisitions at that scale fine but if AI does what we know it will do the companies that are disruptive don't have to be enormous companies.
马克·库班: 没错。
Original English
Mark Cuban: No.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 所以你并不想总是得去筹集现金来走出去收购。这就像以前……
Original English
Jason Calacanis: So you don't want to have to always raise cash to go out there. insight like the
马克·库班: 对,因为就像以前在 broadcast.com,我们仅仅用股票就收购了大概五家公司。
Original English
Mark Cuban: right because like back in the day back with broadcast.com we bought like five companies just for stock
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 然后总会有更大的鱼出现。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: and then there was always a bigger fish to come along
马克·库班: 我们对此感到很高兴,因为,是的。
Original English
Mark Cuban: which we were happy to you know because yeah
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 是的,著名的“领式期权(Collar)”。如果你是 Anthropic 或 OpenAI 的员工,现在是不是该开始考虑用领式期权来规避风险了?
Original English
Jason Calacanis: yeah the famous collar uh if you were a clawed employee if you're at anthropic you're at openi is it uh time to start thinking about the collar trying to thinking about yeah pairing the
马克·库班: 锁定你的头寸。你知道,我对我的股票做了领式期权锁定,因为我已经足够富有了,我还需要多有钱?
Original English
Mark Cuban: position you know I collared my stock because how rich do I need to be
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 对。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: right
马克·库班: 你知道,如果能够改变你的生活。如果我为 SpaceX 或它们中的任何一家工作,无论哪家,我会觉得,你知道,有没有人能帮我做一个领式期权锁定。是的。你知道,因为我只需要得到保护,保留一部分我的上行空间,但一定要盖住我的下行风险。
Original English
Mark Cuban: you know and if you if you're able to change your life. If I work for any SpaceX, any of them, whatever, I'd be like, you know, somebody put together a collar for me. Yeah. You know, because I just need to be protected, save part for my upside, but just cover my downside.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 是的。当你做这件事的时候,你必须实际去策划它,对吧?它当时作为一个产品并不存在。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Yeah. Um when you did it, you had to like um actually orchestrate that, right? It didn't exist as a product.
马克·库班: 确实没有。所以,我必须实际创建一个互联网股票指数。我让高盛(Goldman Sachs)创建了一个我认为很烂的互联网股票指数。然后我做空了那个指数,因为我们必须遵守所有的法律,我必须一直持有那个空头头寸,直到我能够在市场上对我的 Yahoo 股票做真正的领式期权。是的。我在这笔空头上损失了数千万美元。是的。但我通过其他的赚回来了。
Original English
Mark Cuban: No, it didn't. So, I had to actually create an index of internet stocks. I had Goldman Sachs create an index of internet stocks that I thought sucked. And then I shorted that index because we and we had to follow all the laws and I just had to have that short in place until I was able to do a real collar in the market on my Yahoo stock. Yeah. And I lost tens of millions of dollars on that short. Yeah. But I made up for it.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 是的。我是说,这是有史以来最伟大的交易之一。你觉得目前这一波 AI 能力的浪潮怎么样?我相信你一定尝试过,因为你一直是个爱折腾的人。那么你最近在折腾什么,你觉得在未来 5 到 10 年里,对创业者、对社会而言,最能改变世界的会是什么?你看着它会想,嘿,让我们倒推一下。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Yeah. I mean the one of the great trades of all time. Uh what do you think the the this wave of capabilities in AI? I'm sure you play with it because you've always been a tinkerer. So maybe what are you tinkering with and what do you think um is going to be the most world changing you know in the next 5 10 years for entrepreneurs for society where do you look at it and go hey let's work backwards yeah
AI 的落地困境与真实能力
马克·库班: 好的,所以 AI 的落地实际上比任何人预期的都要困难得多。
Original English
Mark Cuban: okay so AI is a lot harder to implement than anybody expected
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 确实是这样。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: for sure
马克·库班: 对,你知道你可以做一个挺直接的智能体(Agent),对吧,你可以直接写提示词。你知道,我们在考试中作弊,在工作中作弊,做项目,提高效率 100 倍,对吧?这都很容易。所以我们理所当然地认为,在企业级应用中也会同样简单。
Original English
Mark Cuban: right you know you can do an agent pretty straightforward right you can prompt away you know we cheated on tests we you know cheated at work you know did projects improved productivity 100x, right? All easy peasy. And we just assumed, you know, at the enterprise it'd be just as easy.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 实际上很难。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: It's hard.
马克·库班: 是的。这很令人恐惧。对员工来说倒不是那种恐惧,因为 Dario(Anthropic 联合创始人)和所有人都说 50% 的白领要失业了。现在两年过去了——他们当时说是在两年内——但就业率仍在增长,人们仍在招聘,我们需要更多懂 AI 的人,对吧?所以 CEO 们完全不知道发生了什么。根本一无所知。而这种情况是不会改变的,对吧?所以,试图向他们解释你需要为所有这些增加难度,这完全没戏,对吧?如果你从 AI 的角度来考虑,如果我们谈论 AGI,谈论它要统治世界,如果你需要有前置部署工程师(Forward Deployed Engineers)……
Original English
Mark Cuban: Yeah. And it's terrifying. And not terrifying for employees because Dario and everybody saying 50% of white collar people are going to lose their jobs. Here we are two years later, they said within [clears throat] two years and you know, employment still growing, people are hiring, we need more AI literate people, right? So CEOs have no clue what is going on. None whatsoever. And that's not going to change, right? And so, you know, trying to explain to them that you need to add a hardness to, you know, all the there's no chance, right? And if you think about it from an AI perspective, if AI, we're talking about, you know, AGI and we're talking about taking over the world. If you can't you if you need to have forward deployed engineers
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 那就说明了你需要知道的关于 AI 的一切。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: that tells you all you need to know
马克·库班: 因为根据定义,你本应该能够直接要求 AI 做你需要做的事,并让它告诉你如何去实现,对吧?然而,微软(Microsoft)招了 6000 人,对吧,Anthropic 和 OpenAI 都在说他们要向这些公司部署人员,这说明了 AI 很难。然后你看到 Palantir 的 Alex Karp 在抓狂,说你怎么能把你的核心机密(Alpha)交给这些公司?而在我看来,他只是在说“他们做的事情和我们一模一样,对吧,我们 Palantir 全是前置部署工程师,而他们现在也做同样的事”。同样,这又是一个很棒的洞察,因为如果你把 AI 当作搜索引擎,或者做个小智能体来跑你的定时任务(Cron job),那好吧,它能工作。你需要有一点系统思维(Systems thinking),但当你开始把它放入企业中,而这是关乎核心任务的……让我们来谈谈系统思维,因为这是第二部分,我不是在黑 AI。我喜欢它。我投资它。它会变得很神奇。它是我们见过的、甚至可能是将要见过的最具有影响力的技术。对吧?但试着去 Claude 或者 ChatGPT 面前说:“好吧,我只想让你帮我搜索 Jason Calacanis 的投资,并做个报告,然后每周给我发邮件。”
Original English
Mark Cuban: about AI because by definition you should just be able to ask AI to do what I need you to do and ask and tell me how to implement it right yet here you have Microsoft hiring 6,000 people right you have anthropic open AI all saying they're going to deploy to these companies which tells you AI is hard and then you have um Alex Karp from Palunteer freaking out saying how can you give your alpha to these companies when in my opinion he's just saying they're doing what we're doing right we're we're all about forward deploy engineers at Palunteer and they're doing the same thing. Uh it it again it's a great insight because you can if you're using it as a search engine or you're making your little agent to you know go do your cron job. Okay fair enough. It's it's going to work. You need to be have a little bit of systems thinking but when you start putting into the enterprise and you know this is mission let's talk about the little bit of systems thinking because that's the second part and I'm not trying to on AI. I love it. I invest in it. It's going to be amazing. It's the most impactful technology that we've ever seen and may ever see. Right? But try going into cloud or or chat GPT and saying okay I just want you to do this search for Jason Calacanis investments and I want you to do report and I want you to email it to me every week.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 是的。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Yeah,
马克·库班: 它做不到。
Original English
Mark Cuban: it can't do it.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 做不到。然后它会说:“好吧,你想要我为你做一个能给你发警报的智能体吗?”然后你说:“好啊。”然后你必须懂得怎么编程,因为它要么给你一个 JSON 文件,要么给你一堆代码,而且输出的结果就是一堆垃圾(Slop)。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Can't do it. And then it says, "Okay, would you like for me to do an an agent that gives you alerts and then you say, "Sure." And then you have to know how to program because it either gives you a JSON file or it gives you, you know, code and it comes out slop.
马克·库班: 是的。然后你必须去修正它,对吧?你必须不断迭代。你知道,如果你想说,嘿,让我上传一张图片,你告诉我我好看吗?或者这个女孩好看吗?我该对她说什么?你知道,或者是商业版本。这很好,没错。但 AI 并不会夺走 50% 的工作。普通人需要它做的事,它还有太多做不到。是的。对。这会创造机会吗?巨大的机会。是的。对吧。所以,就像我投资了 Lovable,我们今天早上还在这里聊这个……
Original English
Mark Cuban: Yeah. And then you have to correct, right? You have to reiterate, you know, if you want to say, you know, hey, let me load a picture in and you tell me if I'm hot or not or is this girl hot? What should I say to her? You know, or business versions. Great. Yeah. Right. But AI is not going to, you know, take away 50% of the jobs. There's just so much it can't do that regular people need it to do. Yeah. Right. Now, does that create opportunity? Enormous opportunity. Yes. Right. So, like I'm an investor in Loveable and we were here this morning talking and um
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: Anthony 还是 Anton 密而深刻地说,人们正在使用 Lovable 每周创建 77 万个应用。一周 77 万个。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Anthony was saying that Anton was saying that um they people are using Lovable to create 770,000 applications a week. a week.
马克·库班: 是的。而且他们只有 30% 的业务在美国,只有 20% 是工程师。正在发生的是,对于创业者来说,回答你关于未来走向的问题——如果你是一个创业者,就像他之前说的,现在是成为创业者最好的时代。他切中要害了,对吧?因为那是 AI 最有影响力的地方。无论你在世界的哪个角落,他们在巴西和印度都有很大的使用量,对吧?如果你在法国、美国,或者任何地方。你知道,就像我给它提了一个提示词,我想看看它需要花多少时间。我说:“好吧,我们要创建一家虚构的公司,它有一个可以录制 24 小时视频的按钮。”然后我希望它能每 24 小时发送给我,我还希望你创建一个专利、一个商业计划书,并告诉我要运营这个需要什么许可之类的。12 分钟。
Original English
Mark Cuban: Yeah. Right. And that only 30% of their business is in the US and only um 20% is engineers. And what's happening is entrepreneurs to answer your question about where it's going, right? If you're an entrepreneur, like he was saying before, there were there's no better time to be an entrepreneur. He's he nailed it, right? Because that's where AI is the most impactful. No matter where you are in the world, they have big utilization in Brazil, India, right? If you're in France, US, wherever, you know, like I gave I gave it um a prompt like I said because I wanted to see what it would take. I was like, "Okay, we're going to create an imaginary company that has a button that can record 24-hour video." And then I wanted to be able to send it to me every 24 hours, and I want you to create a patent and a business plan and tell me what um licensing or whatever I need. 12 minutes.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 哇。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Wow.
马克·库班: 就像我们创办过很多企业。
Original English
Mark Cuban: Like there just No, we've started tons of businesses.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 以前需要六个月来做一个原型,十二个月来发布它。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Yeah. Six months to get a prototype, 12 months to launch it.
马克·库班: 是的。然后你还必须……然后我要求它提供一份物料清单(BOM),以及基础物料的来源公司,就是每个公司在创办初期和早期生命周期中都必须要做的那些基础准备工作。搞定。
Original English
Mark Cuban: Yes. and then you have to and then I ask for a bill of materials and the source companies like the basic stuff to be that the blocking and tackling stuff that every company has to do at, you know, when you're setting it up and early in its life cycle. Done.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 搞定。而且就算它是错的,那又怎样?因为你我都清楚,在这个房间里的每个人也都应该知道,商业史上写过的每一个商业计划书……
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Done. And even if it's wrong, so what? Because the one thing you and I both know and and everybody in the room should know, every single motherucking business plan ever written in the history of business plans
马克·库班: 都是错的。
Original English
Mark Cuban: is wrong.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 当然。那只是一个思想实验,至少给了你一些努力的方向。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Of course. Yeah. It's a it's a thought exercise that at least gives you some sort of direction you're going
马克·库班: 一个指导方针和模板,对吧?但它是错的。
Original English
Mark Cuban: guideline and a template for you, right? But it's wrong.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 所以即便 AI 错了又怎样?如果模型是错的,你知道,因为你会学习并进行迭代,但这依然……
Original English
Jason Calacanis: So what if the AI is wrong? if the model was wrong, you know, because it's you're going to learn and you're going to iterate, but it's still
马克·库班: 再说一次,所有关于夺走白领工作的谈话都很荒谬,因为它连最基础的事情都做不好。对吧?你必须像你所说的那样,拥有一种编程思维,以便能够迭代并解决问题。而且,即便 AI 像我们愿意相信的那样先进,现在当我们让它做一个项目时,遇到所有的错误,它应该从这些错误中学习。甚至可以说:“嘿,我是 Claude,我看到你在这个问题上遇到了麻烦,它在前三次尝试中都失败了,让我告诉你 97.6% 的其他遇到这个问题的人是怎么做的,好吗?”然后它会为你修复,或者告诉你。它甚至做不到这一点。它只会显示失败,或者说别的什么。再说一次,AI 确实很神奇。特别是对于程序员来说,它改变了游戏规则。当你有一个像代码、法律、税务这样窄的数据集时,它就像魔术一样,它只是数学,对吧?基础数据,对吧?但当世界各地的普通人想用它来做普通的事情时……开始创业,很好,但如果你想开始变得高级,那像当年琢磨 PowerPoint 或 Excel 一样,对吧?你总是在公司里需要一个 Excel 专家,或者 PowerPoint 专家。
Original English
Mark Cuban: again all this talk about taking white collar jobs is ridiculous when it can't even do the basic, right? And you have to have like you said a programming mindset. Yeah. in order to be able to iterate and figure it out. And like even you would think if AI is advanced as we want to believe AI is right now all the errors that we get when we ask it to do a project it would learn from all those errors and even have hey I'm Claude you I I see you have a problem with this right and it failed on these three attempts let me just tell you what 97.6% six% of the other people who ran into this did, right? And then it would fix it for you would tell you. It doesn't even do that. It just says failed, right? Or it says whatever. You know, again, AI is amazing. And particularly for programmers, it's game changing. And when you have a narrow data set like code or legal, tax, it's magic and it's just math, right? Basic data, right? But when you wanted to do when normal people anywhere in the world want to use it for normal stuff, great. You start a business, great. But if you want to start getting advanced, it's like figuring out PowerPoint used to be or Excel, right? You always have to have your Excel expert, you know, or your PowerPoint in your company.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 是的。或者是你认识的某个懂的人,对吧?甚至我曾投资过一家叫 SlideShare 的公司,他们所做的就是提供 PowerPoint 模板,你可以下载并重新制作。而 AI 在第二阶段甚至还没有那么先进。因此,这为任何人走进一家小、中型甚至大型企业创造了巨大的机会,可以说:“嘿,我懂 AI。我有基础的计算机背景或者更好的背景。你们公司里大大小小遇到的这些技术故障,我可以帮你们解决。”因为一旦这些问题被解决,AI 能做的事是极其惊人的。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Yeah. Or whoever that you knew, right? or there would be companies built um I even invested in like a company that slides share that all they did was have PowerPoint templates that you could download and redo. AI is not even that advanced for, you know, once you get to the second level. And so that creates so much opportunity for anybody to walk into a small, medium size, even large business and say, "Hey, I understand AI. I have a basic computer background or better." And so all these fails that you're running into across your your your company, big or small, I can help you fix them
马克·库班: 因为一旦这些问题解决了,AI 能做的事是不可思议的。
Original English
Mark Cuban: because what AI can do once those issues are fixed,
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 是的。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Yeah.
马克·库班: 但更好的是,如果你作为创业者去创办一家公司,这些东西最终都会坏掉。智能体会“变无聊”,对吧?它们会产生漂移(Drift),因为随着底层的语言模型开始发生变化,最初编写它的方式与大语言模型演变后的状态不再匹配,对吧?你懂我的意思吗?你甚至写过关于这方面的文章,对吧?管理这些东西实际上需要更多的人力。
Original English
Mark Cuban: But even better, if you're thinking as an entrepreneur to start a business, those things will eventually break. Agents get bored, right? and they drift because as the underlying um large language model starts to change, the way it was originally programmed doesn't match what the the large language model turned into, right? You see what I'm saying? And so you and you even wrote something about this, right? Where it's taking more people to manage all this stuff.
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Original English
Voiceover: Starting a business usually means juggling a bunch of different services just to look legit. Not anymore. With Northwest Registered Agent, you get a complete business identity all in one place. A business address, domain, website, phone number, and more with privacy protection built in from day one. Don't spend hundreds or thousands on services you can get from Northwest for free. Visit northwestregisteredagent.com/allinfree and start using free resources to build your business today. I'm going all in.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 我正在努力让整个公司变成“AI优先”。即便是在年轻人中,也存在一种现象:一组人拥抱它,并且,你知道,他们解决了解算有五到六个非常紧迫的问题。而另一组人,你知道,没有拥抱它。那些“AI优先”的员工和“非AI优先”的员工之间的差距是如此巨大。这简直就像我们刚进入这个行业时,有些人知道如何在 PC 上使用办公套件,而另一些人还在用手写板一样。就是那么大的差距。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: I'm trying to get the whole firm to be AI first. And even with young people, it's like one group embraces it and, you know, they they solve, you know, I don't know, let's call it five or six really pressing issues. The other group is, you know, not embracing it. And the the difference between those AI first employees and the non AI first employees, the gap is like, whoa. It's almost like when we got into the industry and somebody knew how to use the office suite in a PC and then somebody else was like on legal pads. It's like that much of a difference. It's so
马克·库班: 那些具备 AI 素养的人。
Original English
Mark Cuban: people who are AI literate.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 是的。当他们撞上天花板时会发生什么?
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Yeah. What when did they run into a ceiling?
马克·库班: 我所看到的是大量的“工具跳转(Tool hopping)”,这其实是个好问题,因为他们从 OpenClaw 开始。他们开始构建,但它变得很脆弱。
Original English
Mark Cuban: Well, you know, it's what I'm seeing is a lot of tool hopping which I it's a good question because they started with openclaw. They started building it. It got brittle.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 等等,OpenClaw?谁是 OpenClaw?有谁在用 Hermes agent 吗?好吧。那谁在使用 Claude Co-work 呢?然后,哦,哇。那 Perplexity Computer 呢,有人用吗?好的,有意思。这就是人们一直在跳来跳去的四个工具。而我决定要做的是,我说:“嘿,把 Token 额度拉满。你们每个人每个月可以花几千美元,我不在乎这个,我只在乎效率的提升。”结果他们最后全都从 OpenClaw 转向了其他工具。因为所有的智能体都开始崩溃,频繁幻觉,这太令人沮丧了。所以他们开始使用 Claude Co-work。好的,很棒。但是有点受限。然后他们开始使用 Lovable,他们为风投业务构建了内部网络(Intranet),这在过去,任何风投公司绝对不会花 50 万美元和 12 个月时间去建一个内网。以前你只会说,我把它放在 Notion、Google Sheets 里,随便什么。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Wait openclaw. Who's openclaw? Anybody using Hermes agent? Okay, there you go. Who's on Claude Co-work? And then, oh, whoa. And Perplexity Computer, anyone? Okay, interesting. Those are the four that people have been bouncing around on. And what I decided to do is I was just like, "Hey, token max it. You You can each spend a couple thousand dollars a month. I don't care about that. I just care about the gains." And they all wound up um going from Open Claw. All the agents started breaking. It's hallucinating. It's like too frustrating. They started using Claude Co-work. Okay, great. Um, but kind of limited. And they started using lovable and they built intranets for the venture business that no venture business would spend a half million dollars and 12 months building an intranet. Like you' just be like, I'm going to put it in notion, Google Sheets, whatever.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 然后他们就开始构建越来越多的软件。我有两三个人正在构建软件,而在五年前,我可能会说,我们每年要花两三百万美元找外包公司来建这个。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: And then they just started building more and more software. I have two or three people who are building software that I would say five years ago we would have spent maybe two or three million dollars a year building this with that outsource company.
马克·库班: 你根本就不会去建它。
Original English
Mark Cuban: You just would not have done it
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 对,我们根本就不会建。你会直接去买一个提供这个功能的 SaaS 应用。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: which means we wouldn't have done it right. You would just bought the SAS application that did it
马克·库班: 然后我们试图把它削足适履地塞进一个 SaaS 应用里并进行定制,结果行不通,我们最终放弃了。
Original English
Mark Cuban: and then we would have tried to like shoehorn it into a SAS app and customize it. It wouldn't have worked. We would have given up.
世界模型与视频 AI 的技术突破
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 但既然他们已经做到了这一步,现在你该如何管理它呢?好吧,你知道,再次恭喜你投资了 Lovable,因为那家公司曾经历过四次濒临倒闭。我告诉过 Anton,每次他们说你要倒闭了,你就会增加 1 亿美元的收入,6 亿美元的收入,四次下来,2 亿、3 亿。哦,是的。它会被前沿模型所吸收。世界的其他部分,对吧?我的意思是……我投资了 Lovable,我投资了 Synthesia.io,我是他们的第一个投资者。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: But how are you going to manage it now once they get there? Well, you know, again, to your company, Lovable, which man, congrats on that investment because that company was going to go out of business four times. And I told Anton, every time they say you're going to go out of business, you add 100 million in revenue. 600 million in revenue. And four times, 200 million, 300 million. Oh, yeah. It's going to be absorbed into the frontier model. The rest of the world, right? I mean, I've got lovable, I've got synthesia.io that was the first investor in
马克·库班: 漂亮。
Original English
Mark Cuban: nice
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 大约 10 年前,那家公司现在简直杀疯了,对吧?我投资了 AMI,那是 Yann LeCun 的世界模型(World Model)。是的,我们甚至还没谈到世界模型与大语言模型(LLM)以及 Transformer 的对比,对吧?因为我们做的一切都是建立在文本和图片之上的。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: 10 years ago, maybe that that are just that's just killing it, right? I've got AMI, which is Yakun's world model. Yeah, we haven't even talked about world models versus LLM and Transformers,
马克·库班: 是的。
Original English
Mark Cuban: Yeah.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 10 年后,没有什么是只靠文本和图片的,对吧?但是什么会驱动它呢?人们会说,AI 这么聪明,它将改变一切。我说:“好吧,如果你向 AI 展示一个坐在高脚椅上拿着吸管杯的两岁孩子的视频,这个两岁孩子知道,如果你把吸管杯推下边缘,妈妈会跑过来,孩子会开始哈哈大笑。”但 AI 根本不知道会发生什么。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Nothing's going to be text and pictures in 10 years, right? And but what's going to drive it? And like people say, well, AI is so smart. It's going to change everything. I'm like, "Okay, if you tell AI, if you show AI a video of a two-year-old on a high chair with a sippy cup, the a the two-year-old knows if you push the sippy cup over the edge,
马克·库班: 是的,妈妈会跑过来。
Original English
Mark Cuban: Yeah. mom's going to come running
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 孩子会笑。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: and the AI's the kid's going to start laughing."
马克·库班: AI 根本没有头绪。
Original English
Mark Cuban: AI's got no clue what's going to happen.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 毫无头绪。对吧。如果你蒙上眼睛站在街角,必须穿过马路,你宁愿带上一部装有 AI 的手机,还是宁愿牵着一只导盲犬?
Original English
Jason Calacanis: None. Right. Would you ra if you're at a corner blindfolded and you have to cross the street, would you rather have a video? Would you rather have your phone with AI or would you rather have a CNI dog?
马克·库班: 每次我都选狗。
Original English
Mark Cuban: Yeah, dog. I'm taking the dog every time.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 当然选狗。它还没准备好。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Of course. Yeah, it's not ready,
马克·库班: 还没准备好。所以想想我们还有多远的路要走。是的。
Original English
Mark Cuban: right? Yeah, it's not ready. So, just think about how far we have to go. Yeah.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 但这里面有巨大的机会。我是说,世界模型太疯狂了,因为我们在 YouTube 上有现成的视频,我们把世界呈现在那里。但这还不够。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: You know, and all this huge opportunity though. I mean, the world models are crazy because you have videos available on YouTube and just we we have the world there. So, it's not enough.
马克·库班: 远远不够。他们必须戴上手套,而现在他们在马尼拉雇人做各种手势动作。我投资了一家名为 matter.com 的公司,他们正在发射卫星,用于进行光谱测量,通过卫星拍摄它们下方的一切视频并使用光谱。我甚至不完全理解这一切,但这是为了将其转化为一个世界模型,提供其他世界模型可以使用的算法。是的。未来 AI 的发展不可能不包括视频。
Original English
Mark Cuban: It's not enough. they have to wear gloves and you're now they've got people in Manila like doing recipes. So I invested in the company matter.com and they're launching satellites just to take and they do specttography where they take um use the satellites to take videos of everything underneath them and use a spectrum. I don't even understand all the in order to be able to convert it into a world model that will provide algorithms that other world models can use. Yeah. Right. There's just no way that the the future of AI doesn't include video.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 是的,那是很大一部分。随着推理能力的提升,以及回到数据中心的建设,当我们想知道接下来会发生什么时,人们希望使用更多的 Token,而这些世界构建和视频,天啊,那需要大几个数量级的 Token。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Well, I mean, it's it's a a huge part of it. And as the inference and and the the back to the buildout of these data centers as we wonder what's going to happen, people wanting to use more tokens and then these world building and video,
马克·库班: 视频——如果我在数据中心上预测错了,那必定是因为视频。
Original English
Mark Cuban: man, that takes a magnitude more tokens. Video like if I'm going to be wrong on the data centers, it's going to be because of video.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 是的。对。还有行为模型和机器人技术,这些都是相关的。是的。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Yeah. Right. and role models and robotics which is all related. Yeah.
马克·库班: 是的,机器人技术,它们是相关的,但我们还有很长的路要走。
Original English
Mark Cuban: Yeah. I mean and robotics, you know, it's related but we still got a long way to go.
个人健康管理与自导式医疗
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 是的。顺便说一句,你看上去状态极佳。我不知道发生了什么。你戴着红色……你戴了什么?红领带。今天菜单上有些什么?有些什么不在菜单上?
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Yeah. Uh health, you look great, by the way. I don't know what's going on. You got the red. What do you got? Reat tie. What's on the menu here? What's off the menu?
马克·库班: 在 Instagram 上关注我,M Cuban。我只是吃得更好了。不是……
Original English
Mark Cuban: Follow me on Instagram. M Cuban. I just I'm eating better. Not
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 我是说,你现在看起来比 20 年前还要好。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: I mean, you look better now than 20 years ago.
马克·库班: 哦,谢谢,非常感谢。晒黑了也有点帮助,对吧?
Original English
Mark Cuban: Oh, I appreciate that. Thanks. Tan helps too, right?
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 晒黑。但我意思是,你看起来很苗条、很健康,听着,我们都在变老了。我们不再是孩子了。AI 以及目前在这方面所做的一切工作,肯定会有所帮助。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: The tan. But I mean, you you look thin and fit and and listen, we're getting up there now. We're not kids anymore. Um, this is definitely going to help uh AI all the work being done.
马克·库班: 我自己也在用它。我投资了一家叫 Open Evidence 的公司。是的。它是针对医疗领域的,对吧?我用它,比如我必须吃一种补铁剂,因为我的铁指标偏低,同时我还在吃另一种药。我之前同时服用它们,却搞不懂为什么会出问题。我把数据跑了一遍 Open Evidence,我说:“这是我服用的所有东西,这是我吃的所有食物。”他们说:“不行,你得这么做。当你凌晨 3 点起床上厕所时,服用这种药。当你起床时……”
Original English
Mark Cuban: I mean, and I use it too like I invested in a company called Open Evidence. Yes. Yeah. Which is for medical, right? And um I used it and like I have two I have one supplement I have to take because my iron levels are low and I have to take this one medication. And I was taking them at the same time and couldn't understand why I was having problems. I run it through open evidence and I said, "Here's everything I'm taking. Here's everything I'm eating." And they're like, "No, you got to do this. You know, when you get up to pee at 3 in the morning, take this medication. When you get
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 变老真是太差劲了。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Getting old sucks."
马克·库班: 是的。对。[笑声]
Original English
Mark Cuban: Yeah. Right. [laughter]
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 昨晚我和你经历了一模一样的情况。到底是怎么了?
Original English
Jason Calacanis: I was I was right there with you last night. What's going on?
马克·库班: 怎么了,对吧?但是对于健康,它将带来巨大的改变,但它不会取代医生。
Original English
Mark Cuban: What's going on? Right. Um and so, you know, but it's for health. It's going to make a huge difference, but it's not going to replace doctors.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 确实不会。但这确实挺惊人的。你戴着 Whoop 还是 Apple Watch?
Original English
Jason Calacanis: No. But I mean, it is pretty amazing. I don't Are you on Whoop or your Apple Watch?
马克·库班: Apple Watch。是的。
Original English
Mark Cuban: I watch. Yeah.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: Whoop 加上验血,通过 AI 进行自导式医疗(Self-directed healthcare),天啊,你会早早取得一些成效,然后当你真的去跟医生聊的时候……
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Yeah. I mean, the Apple the the Whoop plus getting your blood test, just self-directed health care with AI, man, you're going to get some early wins and then when you do go talk to your doctor.
马克·库班: 你手头就有了所有的数据,对吧?我现在是每三到六个月验一次血。对吧?我已经坚持做了 10 年了,所以我非常清楚我所有的趋势指标。
Original English
Mark Cuban: No, you have it right there, right? My blood tested, you know, now is three to six months. Right. And I've been doing it for 10 years, so I know all my trends.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 哇。所以你在 Function 和 Superpower 这些项目出现之前就在做了。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Wow. So, you were doing it before function and superpower and all that.
马克·库班: 是的。你可以去 Twitter/X 上搜索“Mark Cuban blood test”,大约 8 到 10 年前我还会和医生们理论,说你需要这些数据来作为你的基准线。而且它只会变得越来越好。
Original English
Mark Cuban: Yeah. Like I you could go look up Mark Cuban blood test on Twitter, right? X and I would get into it with doctors like 8 10 years ago and saying you're going to need this for your benchmarks and um but it's only going to get better.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 是的。而且这会非常有趣。我们经历了那个大数据时代,当时就像是,好吧,我们在存储所有这些数据,但我们没有针对它的智能分析。现在,当苹果(Apple)把这些数据利用起来时,这太不可思议了。他们正在做各种研究。我不知道你有没有收到过 Apple Watch 的研究邀请。我想,这将会变得非常有趣。Whoop 刚刚加入了血样面板(Blood panels)。所以现在你的睡眠数据、你的步数、你的心率、你的呼吸 EKG,再加上你的血检数据……
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Yeah. And it's going to be really interesting. We had this big data moment and it was like okay yeah we're storing all this data but we didn't have any intelligence against it now. That's incredible when Apple is now putting that data. They're doing studies. I don't know if you've been invited to studies on your Apple Watch. I'm like well this is going to get very interesting. Whoop! Just added blood panels. So now your sleep data, your steps, your heart rate, your respiratory EKG plus your blood work.
马克·库班: 然后如果你能把你的饮食也加进去。
Original English
Mark Cuban: Then if you can get your diet into it as well.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 是的。那就是 Apple Watch 在眼部健康方面所拥有的,对吧?
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Yeah. That's what I watch has in eye health, right?
马克·库班: 是的。所以你会变得越来越聪明。你知道,这会让你的医生也变得越来越聪明,因为 95% 的医疗都是在猜测,你知道,因为你做不到。医生不可能记住每天发生的所有新研究。你就是记不住。但是医生使用这些工具,拥有同理心、沟通能力和观察能力,那就不一样了。因为你没办法什么都看到。比如你可以问医生,我为什么在流血?看起来你像是中了枪伤,对吧?AI 是不会这样直接告诉你的。
Original English
Mark Cuban: Yeah. So yeah, you're just going to get smarter. Yeah. You know, and that'll make your doctors able to be smarter because 95% of medicine is guessing, you know, because you can't. There's no way a doctor can memorize all the new that happens every single day. You just can't. But a doctor using these tools having, you know, the empathy and the ability to communicate and the ability to see. Right. Because again, there's you can't see. You know, you could have doctor, you know, why am I bleeding? You got a blood looks like you got a gunshot wound, right? AI is not going to tell you that, Dwayne.
社会、政治与算法的影响
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 当我们审视这里的机会时,将会发生很多改变。有很多关于美国财富差距的讨论。我们的朋友 Brad Gerstner 的 Invest America 计划,以及我们的朋友、另一位伟大的德州人 Michael Dell。谢谢你们欢迎我。我很享受在德州度过的时光。我的意思是,德州太棒了。我爱德州,伙计。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Um when we look at the opportunity here, it's going to be a lot of change. A lot of talk about wealth disparity in the US. Uh Invest America, our friend Brad Gersonner, and our friend Michael Dell, another great Texan, and uh thanks for welcoming me. I'm enjoying my time in Texas. I mean, it's great. I love Texas, man.
马克·库班: 德州很好玩。不过这里的热浪有点像这样。
Original English
Mark Cuban: Texas is fun. It's kind of like the heat's kind of like this, though.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 是的,太热了。但我们有空调。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Yeah, the heat. We have air conditioning.
马克·库班: 我们确实有空调。今年夏天有创纪录数量的空调从中国运往欧洲。我看了是哪些公司安装了它们等等。
Original English
Mark Cuban: We do have air conditioning. there's a record number of air conditioners coming from China to Europe this summer. You know, I looked at what companies installed them and everything.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 哦,你总是要寻找交易机会,总是要交易。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Oh, you always got to trade. You always got to trade.
马克·库班: 我只是好奇。但其实都卖光了,目前它们都被从中国运到这里。
Original English
Mark Cuban: I'm curious, but there's no real sold out. They're all being shipped here from China at the moment.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 但很有趣的是,感觉创业精神一直是我们几十年来共同的热情。投资是另一个共同的热情。让人们进入公开市场,Invest America。我们有一种双重叙事:美国的社会主义与资本主义,感觉这在我们一生中正处于最狂热的时期。我是说,我们看到了各州之间的对立,也许自 60 年代或 70 年代以来就没这么严重过。我错过了那个时代,我出生于 1970 年。你出生于,我猜是 1943 年。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Um, but really interestingly, you know, feels like entrepreneurship, which has been our shared passion for many decades. Hey, investing another shared one, giving people access to public markets, invest America. We have this dueling narrative, socialism in America, capitalism, and it feels like this is the in our lifetimes. You and I are close in age. This is the most fevered we've ever seen it. I mean, we have states, maybe not since the 60s or 70s. I I missed that. I was born 1970. You were born, I guess, 1943.
马克·库班: 23年。
Original English
Mark Cuban: 23.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 23年。我开玩笑说他是我哥哥,你看起来不像 1923 年出生的。但是你知道,现在非常两极分化,你对社会主义思潮有什么看法?
Original English
Jason Calacanis: 23. I always joke he's my brother, you look good for 1923, but you know it's this is pretty polarized and and what's your take on the the socialist?
马克·库班: 这里有两点。第一,所有美国民主社会主义者(DSA)的事情都是地方层面的,对吧?当你有预算并且可以控制它时,在纽约或者地方上做这件事真的很容易。你当选了,你就去做,而且你必须平衡预算,你在密歇根或者其他地方也会看到这一点。我不觉得这会改变游戏规则。但更重要的一点是,在做这些事的人,正是那些最擅长社交媒体的人,对吧?因为在美国,是算法在驱动人们如何投票。我不能代表世界其他地方,但这比任何事情都重要。谁控制了算法,在很多情况下就控制了选举。特朗普知道怎么用它。而 Mandami(指某些政治人物或代表)和特朗普相比有什么独特之处?他多大,31、32 岁?他的整个成年生活里只有特朗普和社交媒体。他研究过这个,两者结合。密歇根的那个人也是一样。所以如果你擅长驱动算法,不管是“灌水淹没(Flooding the zone)”还是像特朗普说的那样“他们在吃猫和狗”。
Original English
Mark Cuban: There there's two things here. One, all the DSA stuff is local, right? It's really easy to be mandami and in New York when you have a budget, you get to control it and it's local, right? You got elected, you just do and you have to balance the budget and you'll see it in Michigan and wherever else. I don't think it's going to be gamechanging. But the more important thing is the people who are doing this are the people who are best at social media, right? You know, because the algorithms drive how people vote in the United States. I I can't speak for the rest of the world more than anything else. Whoever controls the algorithm controls, you know, the election in many cases. Trump knows how to use it. And what what do Mandami, you know, what what is unique about Mandami relative to Trump? He's what, 31, 32 years old? His whole adult life has been Trump. and social media. He studied it and the two together. And the kid the guy in Michigan, same thing. So if if you're good at AI, I mean at um algorithm, you know, driving algorithms, whether it's flooding the zone or, you know, like Trump's saying, they're eating cats and dogs.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 是的,那只是吸引眼球。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Yeah. It's just attention.
马克·库班: 是的。而这只是,你知道,定义算法,因为你搜索什么,你就会得到更多什么。如果他们能让你去搜索他们所说的内容并表现出兴趣,那么你就会 24 小时不断看到 Mandami。你只会看到 Mandami 积极的一面。或者如果你碰巧在另一边,看着相反的东西,你就会得到更多相反的内容。但有一件事正在开始改变这种情况,那就是大语言模型(LLM)。我认为,在信息获取和减少政治信息不对称方面,能拯救世界的莫过于大语言模型,因为大语言模型必须尽可能有素养、客观和诚实。
Original English
Mark Cuban: Yeah. And it's just, you know, defining the algorithms because whatever you search for, you get more of. And if they can get you to search for what they're saying and get show your interest, then you're going to just get mandami 24/7. Yeah. And you'll get the positive sides of mandami. Or if you happen to be on the other side of the aisle and you are, you know, looking at stuff that's counter than that, you'll get more of that. We don't like but one other piece I think is starting to change that and that's the large language models. M the thing that I think will save us as a world more than anything else in terms of um information availability and reducing the information asymmetry as it applies to politics are large language models because large language models have to be as literate or and literal and honest as they possibly can.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 探求真理。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Truth seeking.
马克·库班: 是的,真理是更好的表达方式。所以它们必须寻求真理,否则你就会失去对它们的信任,而 Claude、OpenAI 最不需要的就是被指责在某事上说谎。
Original English
Mark Cuban: Yeah. Truth is a better way to put it. Yeah. So they they have to seek truth otherwise you'll lose trust in them and the last thing you know claude open AI needs is well you know they're lying their ass off about this for
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 是的,它们的货币是给你正确的答案和正确的知识,而社交媒体的货币是让你保持在线,这是两个截然不同的使命。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: yeah their currency is getting you the correct answer and the correct knowledge social media's currency is keeping you engaged right it's two different missions
马克·库班: 截然不同的使命。所以你不会消灭社交媒体,但我认为,当人们对自己的政治选择越来越不确定时,他们会越来越多地诉诸大语言模型,问它:“我应该选谁?”而大语言模型会回答:“好吧,你对这件事怎么看?你在这方面的利益是什么?”然后它们会给你诚实的答案。如果你问它,嘿,什么是合理的移民政策?它会给你一个合理的移民政策,也就是,好吧,也许关闭边境,实行类似于加拿大、新西兰的积分制系统,不管是什么,对吧?我也做过同样的事,令人印象深刻。
Original English
Mark Cuban: totally different missions right and so you're not going to get rid of social media but I think people as they become more uncertain with their politics are going to go more and more and more and more to large language models and say, who should I vote for? And the large language model is going to come back and say, well, what do you think about this? What are your interests in this and da da da? And they'll give you honest answers. Yeah. And if you ask it, hey, what's a reasonable immigration policy? It'll give you a reasonable immigration policy, which is like, yeah, maybe shut the border and do a point-based system like Canada, New Zealand, whatever it may be, right? I've done the same thing and it's impressive.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 非常令人印象深刻。你知道,我最喜欢的恶作剧就是,像 JD 还是 AOC 抛出他们在两党中的疯狂言论时,我会跟大语言模型说:“请去验证这些说法。尽可能保持客观和事实,检查你的工作,给出你的来源。”然后它就会直接回复他们。我一直在用这个来调侃 Steven Miller(反移民政策主张者)。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Very impressive. You know, my favorite troll now is like JD or, you know, AOC will, you know, they'll come out with whatever their craziness is on either side of the aisle. And then I'm like, ECRock, please vet these claims. Be as objective and factual as possible. Check your work. Show your sources. And then it just replies to them. So, I've been just totally trolling Steven Miller. Um,
马克·库班: 天啊。
Original English
Mark Cuban: oh my god.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 他是反移民的。而我对合法移民和吸引优秀人才非常有热情,因为我们需要他们,我们真的需要。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Who, you know, he's like anti-immigration. I'm very passionate about like legal immigration and recruiting great people because you need them. We need them.
马克·库班: 我们需要他们。就像运营一支篮球队一样。你每次得到了德克·诺维茨基(Dirk Nowitzki),别人就没有他了。你得到了杰伦·布伦森(Jalen Brunson),他就不能继续留在独行侠了,现在他去了尼克斯。
Original English
Mark Cuban: We need them. every cuz you're running a basketball team. Every time you get Dirk Nisky, somebody else doesn't have him on the team. You get Jaylen Brunson, he's not on the Mavericks anymore. Now he's on the Knicks. You know, like
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 这就是为什么我们来到欧洲做活动,对吧?是的。因为这里有卓越的人才,聪明的人。显然,你们能来这里也是天才。但同时,在每个欧洲国家、印度和世界其他地方都有不同的氛围,对吧?我想你开始看到一些创业者离开我们,来到这里,这令人担忧。但希望大语言模型对真理的追求能帮助教育人们,让他们摆脱算法的控制。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Well, that's why we come to these things in Europe, right? Yes. Because great talent, right? Smart people. Obviously, you guys are geniuses for being here, you know. Um but but at the same time, there's a different vibe in every European country and India and the whole rest of the world, right? And I think you're starting to see some entrepreneurs leave us to come here and that's scary and hopefully, you know, large language models seeking the truth will help educate people away from what the algorithms tell them.
马克·库班: 是的,我认为这非常重要。你现在乐观吗?虽然过去非常混乱,但我们看到了这么伟大的进步。你对美国乐观吗?接下来我们谈谈全人类。
Original English
Mark Cuban: Yeah, I think it's like important. You optimistic now? Um, it's been pretty chaotic, but we're seeing such great progress. you're optimistic about let's start with America and then we'll go to humanity. Yeah.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 是的。我是说,你知道,像每个国家一样,我们有我们自己的问题。我们只是碰巧看起来有点疯狂。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Yeah. No, I mean, you know, like every country, we have our issues. Um, ours just happen to be kind of insane. Um,
马克·库班: 确实挺疯狂的。
Original English
Mark Cuban: it is pretty wild.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 是的。[笑声]
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Yeah. Um, [laughter]
马克·库班: 但好消息是,你知道,我们的总统是有任期限制的。
Original English
Mark Cuban: but the good news is, you know, we have term limits for our president.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 是的。看来三届任期对总统来说是最好的。我的意思是,你会去参选。我希望你参选,伙计。我很乐意成为你的新闻秘书。那会有很多乐趣。我们会玩得很开心。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Yeah. And it seems like 12 three terms is going to be the one for president. I mean, you're going to run. I mean, I hope you do, man. I would love to be your press secretary. That would be a We'd have so much fun.
马克·库班: 我们会很有趣的。
Original English
Mark Cuban: We'd have fun.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 我们会很有趣。如果他决定参选第三任期,那我就去参选。但是……
Original English
Jason Calacanis: We would have fun. Well, if he decides to run for a third term, then I'll run. But he's
马克·库班: 是的,好啊。这是个大新闻。老实说,在领导层中,我们需要那些不需要为生计奔波的管理者。我甚至不想说下去了。
Original English
Mark Cuban: Yeah. Okay, that's good. That's breaking news. I mean, I uh honestly like, um, if you think about what we need, I think, in leadership, executives who can, I think, you know, who are like post money, post needing to make a living. Um, that no I'm not gonna even go there.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 也许是出于对国家的热爱,或者是一些公民自豪感。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Well, and then maybe who are doing it for love of country and maybe some amount of civic pride or
马克·库班: 不,我明白你的意思,对吧?在美国,民主党其实不知道怎么把任何事情落地,对吧?你知道,他们习惯把发生的任何事情都推断为世界末日和民主的终结,对吧?而另一方面,共和党人也在做着疯狂的事,对吧?他们并不关心国家里的人民,没有那种共情和联系。所以,你知道,这在短期内是这样的,但我认为一旦我们度过接下来的中期选举和下一次总统大选,一切都会恢复正常。我认为人们希望看到正常状态。德州的生活成本大约是纽约的一半甚至更低,但在德州每个公民身上的开支只有纽约的几分之一。纽约花在每个人身上的是 6.7 万美元,德州只有 1.2 万到 1.4 万,而我们的生活质量反而更好。但反过来看,纽约对联邦财政的贡献要高于德州。所以这就是一种折中。
Original English
Mark Cuban: No, I get what you're saying, right? And it's just like, you know, in the US, what the Democrats don't know how to actually do anything, right? You know, they know how to take whatever happens and extrapolate that to the end of the world and the end of democracy, right? Yeah. But and the Republicans on the other hand, you know, do crazy right? like they don't care about the people in the country. They don't you know there's no connection to people. There's no empathy and so you know we're but um in the short term but I think as we get past this next the midterms and the next presidential election I think we'll get back to normaly. I think we'll get I think people wanted and you know the thing that has been really eye opening for me having lived in New York, California, now Texas. You know, in Texas, we're spend half as much money per sometimes less. I think it's two and two 2.2 times as much is spent on each citizen in New York. Uh and uh we spend half as much, right? $67,000 per person. They spend like 14 or something 12 to 14. And uh quality of life's better. But on the flip side, New York contributes more to the federal treasury, right, than Texas does. And you would think it should be the opposite, right? just because of the business and how things are run. So there are trade-offs.
德州的吸引力与硅谷的局限
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 是的。但形势正在发生改变。你觉得我们都搬到奥斯汀和德州这件事怎么样?你显然有很聪明的商业原因,特别是财富税在美国简直是愚蠢至极。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Yeah. But it's it's changing. Like what do you think about all of us moving to Austin and like Texas? You got smart obviously for obvious reason particularly you know like the wealth tax sheet is just dumb dumb crazy.
马克·库班: 法国曾经尝试过大约两年的财富税。伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)最初提出财富税时,声称自己有模型支持。我找到了加州大学伯克利分校的经济学家,问他:“能把你的模型分享给我,或者至少告诉我它是怎么回事吗?”他承认模型只跑了一年。我问:“你有做过任何行为学分析,来看看人们对变化的反应吗?”他说没有。所以无论是伊丽莎白·沃伦还是加州的做法,都只是秀场,而不是现实。
Original English
Mark Cuban: They tried it here. Everybody work and they did it for about two years in France. Did they? Yeah. I don't know. But you know when Elizabeth Warren first proposed the wealth tax and so I found and she said well we have these models and everything. So I found the economist at UC Berkeley and I said, "Would you share your model with me or at least tell me about it?" He goes, I'm like, "Was it more than one year?" And he goes, "No, it was just one year." I'm like, "Did you do any behavioral analysis to see how people would respond to the changes?" Yeah. No. And so, you know, whether it's Mandami, Elizabeth Warren, whether it's California, it's it's showmanship more than reality.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 是的。而且我认为人们忘记了人是会移动的。在美国,这非常明显。Travis Kalanick、我自己、埃隆(Elon),突然之间,一大帮人都搬去了那里。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Yeah. And I think people are forgetting that people are mobile, you know, like uh US. [clears throat] Yeah, in the US it's pretty extraordinary. You got Travis Sachs, myself, Elon, just a bunch of folks have all of a sudden just shown up.
马克·库班: 我是第一个搬过去的。我记得当时还和你聊过。最让我惊讶的是,在加州他们什么都不让你建。但我来到德州买了一个牧场,我问那个负责人:“嘿,我可以在这里建个太阳能农场吗?”他看着我说:“在你的牧场上?”我说:“对,就在这里。”他说:“哦,孩子,这是你的牧场,你当然可以建。”而在城市内部,你试着在奥斯汀市建建看。
Original English
Mark Cuban: I was there first. You were. I remember talking to you about it. And the thing that's amazing to me is, you know, in California, they won't let you build anything. And then we go to um I come to Texas, I buy a ranch, and I asked the guy like, "Hey, can I like put a solar farm in here?" He's like, "On your ranch?" I'm like, "Yeah, here." He's like, "Oh, son, it's your ranch. You can do that." It's like can I can I like build like trust me in the cities themselves. Try doing that in the city of Austin.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 我的意思是,但就在奥斯汀城外,只要去建,房价就会下来。这里的房价和租金已经连续三年下降了。当你现在在奥斯汀创办一家公司——我相信在达拉斯、休斯顿和圣安东尼奥也是一样——当我的创始人搬到那里时,整个生活的压力就释放了。人们能够拥有一套房子。我会想,哇,这就是为什么人们仍然要去硅谷的原因吗?这让我抓狂。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: I mean but just outside of it you build and housing prices have gone three years in a row housing prices and rents have gone down. When you build a company in Austin now and I'm sure it's like that in Dallas and Houston and San Antonio when I have founders move there the entire pressure is released. People can own a home. And I was like wow is that why do people still go to Silicon Valley? That like drives me p.
马克·库班: 我认为如果你是第一次创业的创始人,去硅谷沉浸在那种氛围中是再好不过的。但是当你第二次创业时……他们不会告诉你那里有多残酷。第二次创业的创始人现在意识到,如果在德州、内华达或佛罗里达建公司,人才同样会流过来。而硅谷会让人们的脑子坏掉。无论是 Travis、Mike,顺便说一句,我从 22 岁起就认识 Michael Dell 了。我以前很早就和他做过生意。但在德州,你建了公司,只管往前跑。而在硅谷,人们只会关心:“你融到 A 轮了吗?融到 B 轮了吗?融到 C 轮了吗?”
Original English
Mark Cuban: I think if you're a first-time founder, nothing better in terms of soaking in it. But when you're a second time founder, soaking in it, but what they don't tell you, the it is, right? Yeah, it's tough. I think second time founders have now realized if I build it in Texas or Nevada or Florida, I'm going to just all the talent's going to come in Silicon Valley just sets people's heads so wrong. Yeah. Right. So whether it's Travis, Mike, by the way, I've known Michael Dell since we were 22. Yeah. And I used to do business with him way back when. Um, but just the in Texas it's just like build your company and go. In the valley it's like so are you series A? Are you series B? Are you series C?
篮球、体育产业与媒体订阅
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 太多干扰了。是的。25年来,我一直在等着我的尼克斯队夺冠,而你在里面扮演了重要角色。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: A lot of distractions. Yeah. 25 years I've been waiting for my Knicks to win a championship and you played a significant role.
马克·库班: 不,马刺才扮演了重要角色,他们本该把你们揍扁的。[笑声]
Original English
Mark Cuban: No, the Spurs significant [laughter] role. [clears throat] They should have kicked your ass.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 他们为什么没做到?
Original English
Jason Calacanis: And why didn't they why didn't they?
马克·库班: 我认为是由于教练和缺乏经验。因为在第四节的每一场比赛中你们都领先。Wemby(文班亚马)把球扔到某个人的后背上,罚丢了两个罚球。De'Aaron Fox 跑错了方向。发生了太多错误。
Original English
Mark Cuban: I think it was coaching lack of experience. Yeah. You know, cuz you're up, put aside the 29, right? You're up in the fourth quarter of every game. WBY throws it into the back of some guy, misses two free throws. Dear Fox goes the wrong way.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 很多失误。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Lot of mistakes.
马克·库班: 是的。当时你们在讨论解雇 Mike Brown。[笑声]
Original English
Mark Cuban: Yeah. And you would be talking about firing Mike Brown. [laughter]
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 当时他被雇佣时我们确实有些担心,还想解雇 Thibodeau。天啊,Tibs。但 JB(杰伦·布伦森)是货真价实的,对吧?还有我的印第安纳小伙 OG Anunoby,他拯救了你们。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: I mean, it it was a we were concerned when he got hired and getting rid of Tibs. Oh my god. Tibs. But JB was the real deal, right? Was my Indiana boy OG, right? He you know, he saved you guys. So,
马克·库班: 是的。而且你们有杰伦·布伦森。他离开了独行侠,那有点像是宿命。他的家人希望他去纽约。那也是他自己想要的。我可以给你看他经纪人发给我的短信,说他想要拥有自己的球队。
Original English
Mark Cuban: yeah. Uh and you had Jaylen Brunson. Yep. Um he left and that was kind of destiny. His family wanted to come. That's what he wanted. I mean I could show you a text where his agent, you know, text me. He says he wants his own team. He wants his own team,
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 他想要自己的球队,对吧?是的。他以前就准备好离开了。我当时给你发邮件,问这到底是怎么回事,我们会把这作为建队基石。你说他真的很优秀,他是货真价实的。你知道我喜欢他什么吗?他是个极好的人。这是杰伦最棒的部分,他是一个非常好的人。总决赛第五场比赛时我就在那里,就在替补席后面第六排。那真的很酷。我直接哭了出来。我真的哭了。这么多年了。你也和德克一起拿到了你的总冠军戒指。体育在这么多人的生活中扮演着如此重要的角色,这真的很神奇。特别是在今天,看看世界杯。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: right? Yeah. He was ready to go before. And I I texted or emailed you and I said, "What's the story of this is what we're going to base the franchise on." You said he's really good. He's the real deal. You know what I love? He's a great guy. That's the best part about JB. He's just really a good human. I I was there uh for the fifth game, six rows behind the bench. That's cool. And man, I I just cried. I just cried. It's been so many years. And you got your chip, too, with Dirk. Yep. It's so amazing how sports plays such a role in so many people's lives. Yeah. Especially now look at the World Cup.
马克·库班: 体育改变了一切。在达拉斯我去了四场世界杯的比赛,虽然我很讨厌足球,但我讨厌它!但现场的整个氛围、活力和能量是无法抗拒的。这就像去尼克斯或独行侠的比赛,是一样的感觉。
Original English
Mark Cuban: I mean, it's just like sports has just changed everything. And you know, like I've been to four World Cup games in Dallas and I hate soccer football. Right. I hate it. But just the whole scene, the vibe, the energy, you can't beat it. It's like going to a Knicks game, going to a Mavs game. Same thing.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 是的。而 NBA 呢,它见顶了吗?
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Yeah. And the NBA is it is it peaked? Did It sounds like
马克·库班: 这很难说。对于球迷来说,还没有,因为社交媒体在助力它增长。我在巴黎散步,看到一家篮球店,里面有 Wemby 的球衣、Gobert 的球衣等,它在全世界都在增长。
Original English
Mark Cuban: It's hard to say. I mean, you know, for fans, no, cuz I mean, it just grows on social media, you know. I I went um I was walking in Paris and there was a basketball store, you know, and it had Wimby jerseys and Go Bear jerseys and everything and so I mean it's just growing globally.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: Wemby 是货真价实的吗?
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Yeah. It is Webby the real deal.
马克·库班: 是的。但他被“教做人”了。这对他有好处,就像德克在 2006 年被击败后变得更强大。他会变得更大、更强、更好。
Original English
Mark Cuban: Yeah. He's got he he got humbled though. Yeah. Which is good for him. It's like Durk in 2006 got humbled and came back better. We'll come back bigger, stronger, better.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 是的。神奇的是他以前是个非常有魔力的人,现在他变成了反派。他变成反派是因为这是在纽约,而且已经过去了 50 年,对吧?各种因素,圣安东尼奥原本以为势在必得。我以前去印第安纳大学读书,如果你在美国关注大学橄榄球,我们是绝对的下盘弱队,我们过去 100 多年里都没怎么赢过 10 场比赛,但去年我们击败了比过去 100 年还要多的前十名球队,这彻底改变了人们的态度。你非常深地参与了规则的修改,我们接下来会继续聊 AI,但能和你聊这个真的很棒,因为我们都是 NBA 的超级铁粉。看起来规则的修改,比如奢侈税线(Apron)以及对球队的惩罚规则,在联盟里创造了更多的均势(Parity),没人能预测谁会赢。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Yeah. It's amazing how he went from this like incredibly I don't know. There was a there was a magic about him to no he's a villain and he turned into a villain because it was New York and it was 50 some years right and just the circumstances and you know San Antonio thought they had in the bag everybody it's like I went to Indiana University right and if anybody here follows college football in the states like we were the ultimate underdog we had not had you know we had not won 10 games we had we beat more top 10 teams last year than we did in 100 plus years of the program and so that that just changes is people's attitude. You've were very much involved in rule changes and we're going to get on AI next, but it's just great to talk to you about this since we're both such super fans of the NBA. Seems like the rule changes, the apron and um you know how punitive it is has created a lot more parody uh in the league and nobody knows who's going to win like
马克·库班: 因为你必须拆散你的球队,对吧?因为在某种程度上,雷霆(OKC)将不得不拆散他们的球队。这就是为什么他们收集了那么多选秀资产,因为你不能拥有三个顶薪球员。不行。
Original English
Mark Cuban: well because you have to break up your team, right? Because at some point, OKC will have to break up their team. That's why they collect all their draft assets because you can't have three max players. No.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 如果其中一个受伤了,或者没有达到你的预期,那你就会陷入深渊,对吧?
Original English
Jason Calacanis: And if one of them turns out to be hurt or not what you expected,
马克·库班: 那就彻底完了。所以“第二奢侈税线(Second Apron)”完全改变了游戏规则。你必须在组建球队上比以前聪明得多,而且必须有运气。就像马刺在文班的新秀合同到期后必须非常小心。雷霆的 Chet Holmgren 已经不是新秀合同了,所以他们必须更小心。这极大地改变了阵容构建的策略。
Original English
Mark Cuban: then you're in deep, right? And so the second apron is just a complete game changer. And you have to be so much better at putting together a team than you were before. And you have to get lucky. Like the Spurs have went beyond a rookie contract, you know. Um the the OKC has got you know Hatchet on a rookie contract. He's not on a rookie contract any longer. So they have to be even more careful. And so it it really changes the strategy behind building a roster.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 所以我们还能看到三连冠吗?
Original English
Jason Calacanis: So we we're going to see back to backs or any more
马克·库班: 没戏了。绝无可能。
Original English
Mark Cuban: no chance. No. I
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 也许能看到卫冕(Back to backs),但三连冠(Three-peat)是没戏了。是的。如果杰伦·威廉姆斯(J-Dub)在雷霆没受伤,我觉得他们能击败马刺,也能击败篮网。但我以前担心他们对阵尼克斯,我知道我们可以击败马刺,但我担心……
Original English
Jason Calacanis: No chance. maybe back to backs, but not a what do they call when you have three the three Pete. Three feet. Yeah. No more feed. can be back to backs like you know um if Jaylen Jay Williams um Jayd Dub hadn't gotten hurt for OKC I think they would have beat um San Antonio and I think they would have beat the Nets I was worried about them versus the Knicks I knew we could beat the Spurs but I was concerned about
马克·库班: 我不知道你们能击败……
Original English
Mark Cuban: I did not know you could beat I knew
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 我们在常规赛的三场比赛里赢了他们两场,我们痛扁了他们,我知道这会是……我当时说尼克斯六场拿下,结果五场就赢了。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: we beat them two out of three of the games of the year we spanked them I knew it would be like a I I said Knicks in six it was Nixon five
马克·库班: 你们差点被老鹰队击败。
Original English
Mark Cuban: you guys barely beat the Hawks and then
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 别这样,我们当时在调整进攻路线,我们必须让唐斯(Karl-Anthony Towns, Cat)融入进来。我们开始聊 AI 吧。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Oh come on now we we we were tweaking the offense and we Just had to get Cat to buy in us points. Let's talk AI.
马克·库班: 聊 AI 吧。
Original English
Mark Cuban: Let's talk AI.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 成为冠军感觉真是太棒了。天啊。你的戒指呢?他们还没给你?
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Um, but it is so great to be a champion. God, it was Where's your ring? They didn't give you
马克·库班: 还没发,我会去领戒指的仪式上拿。[笑声]
Original English
Mark Cuban: I They didn't yet. No, I'm going to get at the ring circle. [laughter]
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 我总是想,我要跟着库班一起买一部分尼克斯的股份。现在我的净值做得很棒,但球队的估值完全脱离了现实。我的唯一机会就是打电话给埃隆,说……
Original English
Jason Calacanis: I, you know, I always was like, man, I got to follow Cubes and get, you know, a piece of You always told me you wanted to buy a team. I always wanted to get like a, you know, piece of the Knicks. And now it's like my net worth doing great. the value of the team disconnected from reality. I mean, my only chance is to call like Elon and be like,
马克·库班: 球队的估值其实不是由现场观众人数或者输赢驱动的。它是被流媒体服务的订阅用户数驱动的。这将会很有趣,因为过去我们看电视收视率,人们说 NBA 的表现不如其他体育项目。现在尼克斯队比赛,显然有积压的需求,但真正重要的是 Peacock 获得的用户数,ESPN 获得的用户数。它是由收视驱动的,但更是订阅用户数。
Original English
Mark Cuban: part about um the valuations is it's not driven by attendance. It's not driven by wins or losses. It's driven by subscriptions to streaming services. And it's going to be interesting to see because it used to be we looked at ratings, TV ratings, and people said the NBA was underperforming versus everybody else. Now, the Knicks play, obviously, there's some pinup um demand there, but what really matters is the number of subscribers Peacock gets, ESPN gets. It's the ratings sales, but it's more subscribers.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 我的意思是,我不得不为此多订阅了一两个服务。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: I mean, I literally had to subscribe to like I think one or two more services.
马克·库班: 这就是重点,对吧?问题是你保留它们了吗?
Original English
Mark Cuban: Well, that's the whole point, right? And did you keep them is the question.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 是的,我会保留它们。当然。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Yeah, I'll keep them. Sure. I mean,
马克·库班: 但这会有流失率。如果用户流失,谁知道估值会发生什么。如果不流失,估值就会继续上涨。
Original English
Mark Cuban: but there will there'll be churn. If there's churn, who knows what happens with valuations. If there's not, valuations keep on going.
杰森·卡拉卡尼斯: 真是太疯狂了。好吧,听着。这就是你和独一无二的马克·库班的 45 分钟。
Original English
Jason Calacanis: Wow. So crazy. All right, listen. There's your 45 minutes with Mark Cuban, the one and only.
马克·库班: 我全力以赴。
Original English
Mark Cuban: I'm going all in.
📌 文中提及的人物和组织
人物: Mark Cuban, Jason Calacanis
公司/组织: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, Lovable, Palantir
产品/模型: Claude, Open Evidence