引言:AI裁员的喧嚣与真相
每天,头条新闻都在叫嚣着AI(Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能)即将取代你的工作。一篇又一篇令人恐慌的关于大规模裁员的文章,一次又一次关于人类工作终结的夸张预测。但一个简单的真相是:这些故事大多建立在噪音而非事实之上。关于AI模型的噪音,关于AI裁员的噪音,以及关于AI如何能取代我们所有人的噪音。这都是炒作,而非现实。
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Every day headlines scream that AI is coming for your job. Another panic-inducing article about mass layoffs. Another breathless prediction about the end of human work as we know it. But here is one simple truth. Most of these stories are built on noise, not facts. Noise about the models. Noise about AI layoffs. Noise about how AI can replace us all. Hype, not reality.
我将开启一个关于AI炒作与现实的新系列视频,这个系列并非要告诉你一切都好,而是要向你展示实际正在发生的事情。在每一集中,我们都将遵循相同的格式:首先,我们将深入探讨炒作,即那些主宰你社交媒体和茶水间对话的头条新闻;然后,我们将揭露现实,即剥离情感和议程后,实际数据所显示的内容;接着,我们将讨论“人性因素”,即那些塑造变革却无人提及的真实、不为人知的力量;最后,我将为你提供实用的策略,帮助你保持竞争力。
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And I'm starting a new series of videos dedicated to AI hype versus reality. This series isn't about telling you that everything is fine. It's about showing you what's actually happening. In each episode, we'll follow the same format. First, we'll dive into the hype, the headlines that dominate your social feeds and water cooler conversations. Then we will expose the reality, what the actual data is showing, stripped of emotion and agenda. Then we will talk about the human factor, the real unspoken forces shaping the changes that nobody talks about. And finally, I will give you actionable strategies on how to stay afloat.
在接下来的20分钟里,我将向你证明:如果你从事客户服务、支持、客户成功或任何其他面向客户的科技行业角色,你并不会被AI取代,甚至还差得很远。但你应该感到担忧,只是担忧的方向并非所有人都在叫嚣的那样。我将向你展示AI裁员头条背后的真实数据,揭露那些声称“AI优先”的公司实际发生的情况,并为你提供策略,让你在AI普及加速时变得更有价值,而不是更少。如果你准备好停止恐慌并开始准备,那么让我们深入探讨。
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Here's what I'm going to prove to you in the next 20 minutes. If you work in customer service, support, customer success, or any other client-facing role in tech, you're not about to be replaced by AI. Not even close. But you should be worried, just not from the direction everybody's screaming about. I'm going to show you the real data behind the AI layoff headlines, exposing what's actually happening at companies claiming to go AI first, and give you the strategy that will make you more valuable, not less, as AI adoption accelerates. If you're ready to stop the panic and start preparing, let's dive in.
裁员现实:案例分析
2025年,“AI取代支持及其他客户服务角色”一直是科技领域讨论最多、争议最大的话题之一。这一叙事由科技巨头亚马逊、微软、Meta、英特尔等公司的大规模裁员所驱动,这些裁员直接归因于AI驱动的效率提升和自动化,仅2025年上半年就有数万个工作岗位被削减。这种裁员潮是在公司旨在削减成本、利用AI驱动的效率和重组努力的背景下出现的。这些裁员不仅仅是对财务限制的反应,更预示着一种更广泛的趋势,即长期以来被认为是安全的白领职位现在也变得脆弱。
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The hype. AI replacement support and other customer service roles has been one of the most discussed and controversial topics in tech throughout 2025. The narrative is driven by major layoffs at tech giants Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Intel, and others attributed directly to AIdriven efficiencies and automation with tens of thousands of jobs cut in the first half of 2025 alone. This way of job cuts emerges against a backdrop of companies aiming to trim costs and leverage AIdriven efficiencies and restructuring efforts. These layoffs were not mere reactions to financial constraints, but were indicative of a broader trend in which white collar positions long considered secure were now vulnerable.
这是一个头条新闻,现在我们将抛开那些耸人听闻的标题,在不进行进一步研究的情况下,只阅读文章中写了什么。我们会发现,2025年的裁员并非纯粹归因于AI。让我们谈谈现实。我们将打开TechCrunch(美国科技媒体:专注于初创企业、科技新闻和分析)关于2025年科技裁员的综合列表,逐一查看公司,我将向你证明,AI取代客户服务更多的是一种恐慌模式,而非现实。
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So this is a headline and now we're going to move past the big screaming title and read without doing any further research. Just read what's written in the article. And what we're going to see is that all of a sudden the 2025 layoffs are not being attributed purely to AI. Let's talk about the reality. We're going to open Techrunch's comprehensive list of 2025 layoffs in tech and go company by company and I will prove to you why AI replacing customer service is a lot more of a panic mode rather than the reality.
让我们从大公司开始。Bumble(在线约会应用:以女性用户优先发起对话为特色)在提交给SEC(Securities and Exchange Commission: 美国证券交易委员会)的文件中宣布,将裁员约240人,占其员工总数的30%,以提高运营效率,并将节省下来的资金用于开发新产品和技术。根据CNBC(美国消费者新闻与商业频道:提供全球财经新闻和商业信息)的报道,此次裁员将帮助这款在线约会应用每年节省4000万美元。现在,从这里我们来看CNBC的报道。这家约会公司的股价自2021年上市以来大幅下跌,截至周三收盘,其市值已从77亿美元暴跌至约6.73亿美元。
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Let's start with the big ones. Bumble announced in an SEC filing that it will cut approximately 240 jobs or 30% of its workforce to enhance operational efficiency and allocate the resulting savings to the development of new products and technologies. According to a CNBC report, the layoffs will help the online dating app save $40 million annually per the report. Now, from here, let's look at the CNBC report. Shares of the dating company have plunged since their debut on the public markets in 2021. Its market value has plummeted from $7.7 billion to about $673 million as of Wednesday's close.
你在这里看到任何关于自动化或声称100名支持专家被AI取代的字眼吗?没有。但外界的噪音却告诉你,Bumble正在裁减30%的员工,AI正在抢走你的工作。然而,当你打开消息来源时,那个庞大而可怕的AI怪物突然变得不那么庞大和可怕了。如果你设身处地为Bumble的创始人着想,你会意识到公司已上市,股价暴跌,你必须重组以维持公司生存。所以,你再次听到裁员,但如果你深入了解裁员的原因,你会发现它们是合理的,并且与AI无关。
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Now, do you see anything here mentioned about automation or anything saying 100 support specialists were replaced by AI? No. But the noise is telling you you Bumble is slashing 30% of staff. AI is coming for your job. But when you open the source, all of a sudden the big and hairy AI monster is not so big and hairy anymore. And if you put yourself in the shoes of the Bumble founder and you realize that the company is public and your shares have plummeted, you're going to get your together and restructure to keep your company alive. So once again, you hear layoffs, but if you look into why the layoffs are happening, it actually makes sense and they have nothing to do with AI.
即使是我这个对在线约会不感兴趣、不关注在线约会世界动态的人也知道,在线约会趋势正在下降。我在城市里随处可见关于单身线下活动、烹饪课、舞蹈课、酒会、户外电影节的实体广告。所以,Bumble的利润下降我一点也不惊讶。而AI与这些裁员绝对无关。
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As someone not interested in the online dating and not keeping pulse on what's happening in the online dating world, even I know that online dating trend is on the decline. I come across physical ads all over the city about the offline events for singles, cooking classes, dance classes, drinks, outdoor film festivals. So, no, I am not surprised that the profits of Bumble are dropping. And AI has absolutely nothing to do with these layoffs.
接下来,我们来看看一个更大的公司,Google(美国跨国科技公司:以搜索引擎、云计算、软件和硬件产品闻名)。看看这个标题:“Google据报道削减智能电视预算,优先发展AI和YouTube”。6月23日,Google据报道减少了对其智能电视部门的投资,具体削减了Google TV(Google的智能电视平台)和Android TV(Google的智能电视操作系统)的预算10%。有人听到AI或自动化裁员了吗?让我带你回到我们开始的地方。我们最初听到的是“FANG(Facebook、Amazon、Netflix、Google)因为AI而裁员”。但当你打开链接,打开消息来源时,结果发现裁员与自动化无关。如果说有什么不同的话,那是在不同的部门创造了就业机会。
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Moving on, let's look at a bigger guy, Google. Looking at this title, Google reportedly cuts smart TV budget and prioritizes AI and YouTube. On June 23rd, Google reportedly reduced its investment in its smart TV division, specifically cutting the budget for Google TV and Android TV by 10%. Did anybody hear AI or automation layoffs? Let me bring you back to where we started for a second. We started from Fang is laying off people because of AI. But when you open the links, when you open the sources, turns out that the layoffs have nothing to do with automation. And if anything, they're creating jobs in the different division.
好的,让我们看看其他例子。再举一个,Microsoft(美国跨国科技公司:以软件、消费电子、个人电脑和相关服务闻名)。Business Insider(美国商业新闻网站:提供金融、科技、媒体等领域新闻)报道,微软正在考虑可能在5月前进行的额外裁员。据称,该公司正在讨论减少中层管理人员和非编码人员的数量,以提高程序员与产品经理的比例。首先,作为一名产品经理,我很高兴PM(Product Manager: 产品经理)市场终于开始自我平衡。疫情期间招聘热潮中获得PM头衔的人数简直荒谬。作为一名为PM工作奋斗多年的人,我觉得我的工作在疫情期间被贬值,比阿根廷比索还厉害,当时人们认为PM的工作就是写Jira(项目管理工具:用于敏捷开发和问题跟踪)工单。重点是,这并非自动化。这是科技巨头在纠正他们五年前过度招聘的决定。
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All right, let's look for different lengths. Let's take another one. Microsoft. Microsoft is contemplating additional layoffs that could happen by May. Business Insider reported the company said to be discussing reducing the number of middle managers and non-coders in a bit to increase the ratio of programmers to product managers. First of all, as a product manager, I am happy that the PM market is finally starting to balance itself out. The amount of people who got a PM title during pandemic hiring surge was ridiculous. As someone who fought for a PM job for years, I feel like my job got really devalued more than an Argentinian peso during pandemic when people decided that PM job is writing Jira tickets. Point is, this is not automation. This is big tech correcting their own overhiring decisions from 5 years ago.
接下来是Canva(在线图形设计平台:提供易于使用的设计工具)。Canva是唯一一个真正因为工作被AI取代而裁员的例子。在Canva的案例中,这只涉及技术撰稿人,而今天我们讨论的是面向客户的角色。所以我们不会在本集中讨论技术写作。我将单独制作一集关于UX(User Experience: 用户体验)的视频。但简而言之,是的,技术撰稿人确实有充分的理由担忧。但再次强调,这并非客户服务和支持。
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Moving on, Canva. Canva is the only real example of people being laid off because their job is now being done by AI. Now in Canvas case, it only covers technical writers and today is about customerf facing rules. So we're not discussing technical writing in this episode. I will make a separate episode about UX. But in a nutshell, yes, technical writers do have a legit reason to worry. But again, this is not customer service and not support.
现在,让我们选择一家高度依赖客户服务的公司。HelloFresh(送餐套件公司:提供预先配好的食材和食谱)正在关闭其在北德克萨斯州的一个站点,并裁员207名员工。HelloFresh正在关闭其配送中心,并整合到欧文市的另一个站点,以管理该地区的业务量。同样,没有提及自动化。
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Okay. Now, let's pick a company that is highly dependent on customer service. HelloFresh, a meal kit company, is closing one of its sites in North Texas and cutting over 207 workers. HelloFresh is shuttering its distribution center and consolidating to another site in Irving to manage the volume in the region. Again, no mention of automation.
好吧,也许这一切都是谎言,我没有仔细寻找。没关系,我会找得更好。我正在专门搜索与AI和自动化相关的裁员。看看2025年AI造成的工作岗位流失,再次专门关注客户服务规则。AI聊天机器人将电话营销成本降低了80%,使人工客户服务迅速过时。你上次打电话给客户支持时,是什么时候与真人对话的?没错。嗯,我确实记得我上次与真人对话是什么时候,而且几乎每次我需要联系支持时,我都会与真人对话。
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Okay, maybe this is all a lie and I'm not looking well enough. Fine, I look better. I'm searching specifically for AI related and automation related layoffs. Looking at AI job displacement of 2025, once again focusing specifically on customer service rules. AI chatbots reduce telemarketing costs by 80% making human customer service rapidly obsolete. When did you last speak to a human when calling customer support? Exactly. Well, I do remember the last time I spoke to a human and pretty much every single time I need to get in touch with support, I do speak to a human.
另外,再读一遍这句话:“AI聊天机器人将电话营销成本降低了80%。”是的,理论上它们确实能做到。我们谈论的是训练有素、调整得很好的聊天机器人。但这里没有提及支持、交付经理或实施。我研究中发现的唯一一个客户服务被AI取代的例子,也是我能证实的一个例子是亚马逊。我认为亚马逊处理客户支持查询的方式自动化程度很高。但即便如此,仍有许多用例是聊天机器人无法完成工作的。我个人曾多次致电亚马逊支持,尤其是在处理账单问题时。
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Also, read this again. AI chatbots reduce telemarketing costs by 80%. Yes, in theory they do. And we're talking about very well-trained and tuned chat bots. Not a word about support, delivery managers or implementations. The only example of customer service being replaced by AI that I found in my research and the one that I can attest to is Amazon. I think the way Amazon handles their customer support queries is very well automated. But even then, there are plenty of use cases where the chatbot will not do the job. I have personally called Amazon support several times, especially when it came to billing problems.
我记得有一次为我在德国的朋友订购礼物,我不得不在德国亚马逊上完成那笔购买。因此,要在不同国家的亚马逊上订购产品,我必须创建一个特定国家的亚马逊账户。所以整个国际用户流程并没有真正解决。当我的订单出现问题时,聊天机器人无法帮助我。最重要的是,我无法通过加拿大亚马逊解决这个问题,因为我必须致电德国亚马逊才能解决。
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I remember once ordering a gift for my friend in Germany and I had to make that purchase on the German Amazon. So to order a product off of Amazon in a different country, I had to create a country specific Amazon account. So the whole international user flow isn't really solved. And when I had issues with that order, the chatbot wasn't able to help me. On top of it, I was not able to resolve this issue with Amazon Canada because I had to call the German Amazon to resolve the issue.
现在,我想仔细看看一个非常有趣的案例,它发生在一个名为Klarna(瑞典金融科技独角兽:提供“先买后付”等支付服务)的瑞典公司身上,并对其案例进行更深入的研究。2022年发生了什么?Klarna因裁员约700名员工而登上头条,这在当时是其员工总数的重要一部分。首席执行官公开表示将拥抱AI工具,这些工具可以接管客户支持、翻译、内容创作甚至高管层决策等任务。快进到2024年,事情并没有按计划进行。Klarna的客户投诉激增,用户满意度大幅下降,用户流失,社交媒体上的不满情绪日益增长。所有这些都源于AI在客户支持中的主导地位。
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And now I would like to take a closer look at a very interesting case that happened with a Swedish company called CLA, which is a major European fintech unicorn, and study their case a little bit closer. What happened back in 2022? CLA made headlines when it laid off around 700 workers, which is a significant portion of its workforce at the time. The CEO was vocal about embracing AI tools that could take over tasks such as customer support, translation, content creation, and even executive level decision-making. Fast forward to 2024, and things did not go as planned. Clara got a surge in customer complaints, a major dip in user satisfaction, loss of users, and growing frustration on social media. And all of this was because of the dominance of AI and customer support.
客户抱怨自动回复过于通用、重复,在处理实际问题时根本无济于事。具体被提及的问题包括:非个人化和重复的AI互动、不准确或令人困惑的答案、难以解决复杂或敏感问题、以及同理心和人情味的缺失。那么,Klarna是否重新雇佣了两年前解雇的那些职位呢?是的,Klarna现在正在积极重建其人工支持团队。
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Customers complained that automated responses were too generic, repetitive, and simply unhelpful when dealing with real life problems. Things that were specifically cited, impersonal, and repetitive AI interactions, inaccurate or confusing answers, difficulty resolving complex or sensitive issues, loss of empathy and human touch. Now, did Clara rehire the roles that let go two years prior? Yes, Clara is now actively rebuilding its human support teams.
从Klarna的经验中吸取的主要教训是:AI应该辅助而非取代人际互动。当AI用于支持代理的预筛选时,它的作用非常大。在人工代理介入之前,Klarna的AI系统会执行全面的预筛选测试,以收集和合成关键信息,例如客户的姓名、账户历史、交易记录、过往互动、首选语言、情绪和消息的情感基调。
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So key lessons learned from Clar's experience. AI should assist, not replace human interactions. It is great when used for pre-screening for support agents. Before a human agent becomes involved, Clard's AI system performs a comprehensive pre-screening test to collect and synthesize critical information. Details like the name, account history, transactions, previous interactions, preferred language, sentiment, and emotional tone of the customer's message.
我想对此补充几点。根据我的个人工作经验,我曾为客户服务团队开发过一个AI代理,它处理基本的客户投诉或问题。但对于任何值得升级的问题,它都充当支持代理的助手,几乎就像一个实时ChatGPT(大型语言模型:由OpenAI开发的人工智能聊天机器人)。该代理分析客户问题,并向支持代理提供一个模板答案,支持代理可以在AI搜索知识库或CRM(Customer Relationship Management: 客户关系管理)寻找答案的同时发送该模板。它还会提供几种AI找到的回复变体。然后由支持分析师来判断信息的准确性,并添加他们认为必要的细微差别或细节。
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I'd like to add a few points to this. From my personal work experience, I have worked on an AI agent for customer service teams that handles basic customer complaints or questions. But for anything that's worth escalating, it acts as an assistant to the support agent almost like a real-time Chad GBT. The agent analyzes customer question and either provides a template answer to the support agent that they can send in the meantime while it's looking for the answers across the knowledge base or CRM and offers a support agent several variations of the response that it was able to find. It is then on the support analyst to determine accuracy of the information and add nuance or details they deem necessary.
结果是,没有人失业。客户服务人员将响应速度提高了近20%。这对于那些客户服务团队被外包,且公司语言并非客户服务代理母语的公司来说尤为重要。除了Klarna,还有其他例子吗?是的,我必须提到我将提供的例子并非专门针对客户服务角色。我一直在寻找纯粹的客户体验角色被取代的例子,但请理解,我使用的是二手数据,我必须根据现有信息进行操作。结果通常是针对一组角色发布的,例如客户成功和支持、项目管理和客户管理。所以,请记住这一点。
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As a result, nobody lost jobs. Customer service folks improved the speed of response by almost 20%. This is especially important for companies whose customer service teams are offshored and where the language of the company is not the native language of the customer service agent. Are there more examples on top of CLA? Yes, I got to mention that the examples I'm going to be providing are not specific to customer service roles. I was looking for examples of pure CX rule replacement, but please understand that I work with secondary data and I got to operate with what I have. The results are often published for groups of roles, customer success and support, project management and account management. So, just keep that in mind.
IBM(美国跨国科技公司:提供计算机硬件、软件、咨询服务)用其内部开发的AI平台Ask HR(IBM内部AI平台:用于自动化人力资源查询)取代了8000多名HR(Human Resources: 人力资源)和支持人员,旨在自动化94%的内部查询和文档处理。通过自动化这些流程,IBM在70个不同的角色中节省了惊人的35亿美元,显著提高了效率。但IBM很快意识到,复杂的HR问题,如政策判断、例外情况和申诉解决,AI无法高效或准确地解决。有报道称,IBM开始重新招聘数百名员工,并非为了基本支持,而是为了那些需要同理心、判断力和细致决策的角色。结果,IBM转向了混合模式,将AI用于重复性任务,而将人类专家用于复杂案例。
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IBM IBM replaced over 8,000 HR and support staff with its in-houseuilt AI platform, Ask HR, aiming to automate 94% of internal queries and documentation. By automating these processes, IBM saved an impressive $3.5 billion across 70 different roles, providing significant efficiency gains. But IBM soon realized that complex HR issues such as policy judgment, exceptions, and grievance resolutions were not being solved by AI either efficiently or accurately. Reports surfaced that IBM began rehiring hundreds of staff not for basic support, but for roles demanding empathy, discretion, and nuance decision-making. As a result, IBM shifted to a hybrid model, combining AI for repetitive tasks with human specialists for complex cases.
让我们看看Duolingo(语言学习应用:提供多种语言课程)。我想说Duolingo在AI的框架和定位方面是一个反面教材。Duolingo在2025年4月宣布转向“AI优先”战略,裁员或不续签了其支持和内容审核团队的很大一部分合同,用AI工具取代他们进行内容创作和用户支持。此举引发了用户和员工的强烈反弹,人们担忧内容质量下降和人情味缺失。不久之后,他们在宣布此举后,在社交媒体上,尤其是在TikTok(短视频社交平台)上,面临了负面宣传和公众的抵制。几乎所有近期帖子的热门评论都与视频或公司无关,而完全与公司拥抱AI有关。结果,Duolingo放弃了其纯AI方法,转而强调一种混合模式,即AI增强而非取代人类员工。
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Let's look at Dolingo. I would say that Dolingo is more of a bad example in terms of framing and positioning of AI. Dualingo announced a shift to an AI first strategy in April 2025, laying off or not renewing contracts for a significant portion of its support and content moderation teams, replacing them with AI tools for content creation and user support. The move caused an intense backlash from users and employees with concerns over declining content quality and loss of the human touch. Shortly after, they faced bad publicity and push back from the general public on social media after announcing the move, particularly on Tik Tok. The top comments on virtually every recent post have nothing to do with the video or the company and everything to do with the company's embrace of AI. As a result, Dolingo wugged back on its AI only approach, emphasizing a hybrid model where AI augments but does not replace human workers.
AI在客户服务中的真实风险:离岸外包
现在我们已经认识到头条新闻与公司实际行动和言论之间的差异,我想谈谈客户服务和科技领域的一个非常真实的风险,以及AI实际上正在加剧的这个风险:那就是离岸外包(Offshoring: 将业务流程转移到海外国家)和近岸外包(Nearshoring: 将业务流程转移到邻近国家)。我们在“何去何从”系列的多段视频中详细讨论了近岸外包趋势。但我想为所有客户服务团队强调的是,如果你在不久的将来有什么值得担忧的,那就是离岸外包。因为之前的一个障碍是语言障碍。
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And now after we have realized the headlines versus what the companies are actually doing and saying, I would like to talk about a very real risk for customer service and tech and what AI is actually doing is that it's exacerbating that risk and the risk is offshoring and nearshoring. We spoke about nearshoring trends at length in multiple videos in the where to run series. But what I would like to highlight for all customer service teams is that if there is anything you should be worried about in the near future, it's the offshoring. Because one of the things that was an obstacle before was the language barrier.
对于北美地区,客户成功团队离岸外包的首选目的地是拉丁美洲和印度。在印度,英语是普遍使用的,但时区是一个问题。拉丁美洲在时间上与北美重叠,但英语是他们的第二语言,而客户服务团队在处理升级、投诉、价格谈判等方面非常依赖语言。有了AI,这个风险显著降低,因为即使用于辅助,LLM(Large Language Model: 大语言模型)也能为非母语人士翻译和解释细微差别和语气。因此,离岸外包的可能性增加了,不是因为AI会取代你,而是因为AI让你的工作变得更容易。
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For North America, the top destinations for offshoring customer success is Latin America and India. In India, English is commonly spoken, but the time zone is an issue. Latin America overlaps for timing, but English is their second language and customer service teams are very much language dependent when it comes to escalations, complaints, price negotiations, etc. With AI, this risk goes down significantly because even when used for assistance, LLM can translate and interpret the nuances and the tone to a non-native speaker. So the likelihood of offshoring goes up not because AI is going to replace you but because AI is making your job easier.
AI在客户服务中的优缺点
现在,为了公平起见,让我们谈谈AI在客户服务团队中的真正优势。如果实施得当,AI客户服务可以提供许多实质性的优势。它能提高运营效率,可以不知疲倦地处理数千个重复性任务。它还可以快速扩展以适应高峰需求,消除漫长的等待时间,提高客户服务速度。AI系统可以全天候运行,提供全球24/7服务。先进的数据分析可以使其高度个性化,并根据客户行为、购买历史和使用模式进行定制。AI客户服务可以快速故障排除,并即时访问庞大的知识库以快速解决问题。
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Now let's talk about the real advantages of AI and customer service teams to keep things fair. AI customer service can provide numerous substantial advantages when implemented properly. It boosts operational efficiency. It can handle thousands of repetitive tasks without fatigue. It can also scale to adjust quickly during peak demand, eliminating long wait times and improving the speed of customer service. AI systems are operational around the clock. They provide 247 service around the globe. Advanced data analytics can make it highly personalized and tailored to customer behavior, purchase history, and usage patterns. AI customer service can do rapid troubleshooting and access vast knowledge bases instantly to resolve an issue quickly.
现在我们来谈谈缺点。实施复杂性是一个重大的挑战。它需要组织工作流程和文化进行大量调整。不协调可能导致挫败感,从而真正损害品牌忠诚度。如果你阅读关于最大的实施挑战的资料,你会发现最关键的问题归因于缺乏人际互动以及它如何影响客户满意度。我将在下一部分“人性因素”中解决这个问题。但我个人不同意这一点。我不认为缺乏人情味是最大的问题。我认为这真的取决于客户群体和应用程序的性质。
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And now let's talk about the downsides. Implementation complexity is a significant challenge. It requires substantial adjustments in organizational workflows and culture. Misalignment can lead to frustration which really undermines brand loyalty. Now, if you read up on the biggest implementation challenge, you will see that the most critical issue is being attributed to the lack of human interaction and how it impacts customer satisfaction. I will address this in the next part, the human factor. But I personally disagree with this. I don't think that the lack of the human touch is the biggest problem. I think it really depends on the customer demographic and the nature of the app.
对于客户群体较年轻的产品,例如18到30岁之间,缺乏人际连接并不是最大的劣势。对我个人而言,它也不是。我希望聊天机器人能解决我所有的问题,而不必与人打交道,也不必为了简单的管理任务(如检查支持工单状态或关闭借记卡)而打电话给任何人。同时,作为一名目前正在开发面向40岁及以上人群的SaaS(Software as a Service: 软件即服务)产品的人,我可以看到一个非常清晰的行为趋势,即在支持部门更喜欢真人而非聊天机器人。所以,我只是想说,在我看来,关于缺乏人情味的趋势是值得商榷的。
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The products where the demographics is younger, so for example, between 18 and 30, the lack of human connection is not the biggest disadvantage really. To me personally, it isn't. I would love for the chatbot to fix all my issues and not having to deal with people and not having to call anyone for simple admin tasks like checking the status of my support ticket or closing a debit card. At the same time, as someone who is currently working on a SAS product where the demographics is 40 years and older, I can see a very clear behavioral trend to prefer a human in the support department over a chatbot. So, all I'm saying is that in my view, the trend around a lack of human touch is debatable.
技术错误和故障是AI系统固有的风险。而贸然转向AI很可能会损害客户信任和公司声誉,特别是对于那些在市场上存在已久,并提供与竞争对手类似产品套件的公司。鉴于AI广泛依赖个人数据,客户的隐私和道德担忧是额外的关键问题。
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Technical errors and malfunctions are an inherent risk in AI systems. And the cold turkey switch to AI can very well damage customer trust and the company's reputation, especially if it's a company that's been on the market for a long time and offers a product suite similar to competitors. Privacy and ethical concerns from customers are additional critical issues given AI's extensive reliance on personal data.
人性因素与企业政治
有几个因素对你有利。当公司转向纯AI时,客户体验和信任往往会受损,甚至在开始取代工作之前,公司就开始面临声誉风险。我认为在科技领域工作的人,以及开发AI应用的人,往往会认为周围的每个人都对AI世界正在发生的事情了如指掌。所以当公司做出这样的声明时,对于了解AI运作方式的人来说,这看起来像一个有趣的实验,他们会密切关注。但对于科技泡沫之外的人来说,这听起来像是这家公司正在剥夺人们的工作。
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The human factor. There are several things that play in your favor. Customer experience and trust often suffer when companies go AI only and companies start suffering reputational risk even before they start replacing jobs. I think that people who work in tech, people who build AI apps are prone to think that everyone around them is well-versed in what's happening in the AI world. So when a companies make announcements like that, to someone who understands how AI works, it looks like an interesting experiment that they're going to watch closely. to someone outside of the tech bubble. It sounds like this company is depriving people of jobs.
Duolingo就是一个很好的例子。Duolingo表示,大部分反馈来自不理解“AI优先”意味着什么的人。我们看到很多反馈都源于对Duolingo的热爱,我们对此非常感激。澄清一下,AI并非取代我们的学习专家,它只是他们用来让Duolingo变得更好的工具。我们用AI创造的一切都由我们的团队和学习设计专家指导。但对于那些已经对AI持怀疑态度的人来说,这种声明只是噪音。
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Dolingo is actually a very good example. Dolingo says that much of the feedback is coming from people who don't understand what AI first means. A lot of feedback we've seen comes from a place of passion for Dolingo, which we really appreciate. To clarify, AI isn't replacing our learning experts. It's a tool they use to make Dolingo better. Everything we create with AI is guided by our team and learning design experts. But to people who are already skeptical about AI, this statement is just noise.
总的来说,公司仍然对AI潜在的成本节约感到兴奋,有时这是有充分理由的。例如,Duolingo的股价创历史新高。但无论高管们多么看好,这种兴奋并未渗透到消费者领域。在此之上,再加上企业政治。这主要适用于大型企业,尤其是传统企业,在这些企业中,企业政治可能比这些公司生产的产品扮演着更大的角色。现在,如果你设身处地为一位中层经理着想,他们决定切断与现有支持人员的所有联系,几个月后却像Klarna、IBM或Duolingo一样遭到强烈反弹。你能想象他们将面临的尴尬程度和失业威胁吗?
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Companies in general remain excited about the potential cost savings of AI, sometimes for good reason. Dualingo stock, for example, is at an all-time high. But as bullish as the executives might be, however, that excitement has not made its way into the consumer space. Now, on top of this, add corporate politics. And this mostly applies to large corpse, especially legacy corpse where corporate politics plays probably a larger role than the products those companies produce. Now put yourself in the shoes of a middle manager or they decide to cut all ties with the existing support staff and then a few months later they get a backlash like CLA, IBM or Dolingo. Can you imagine the level of embarrassment and the threat of job loss they're going to face?
几个月前我与一位不太熟的人聊天,他们也不知道我是做什么的。他们当时正在面试一份工作,我建议他们或许可以利用一个LLM(Large Language Model: 大语言模型)作为简历教练。我聊天的这个人大概27、28岁。当我提出这个建议时,他们的回答是:“哦,所以你相信AI?”他们不在科技行业工作,我也不期望科技行业之外的任何人真正理解人工智能是如何运作的。但那次对话让我意识到,我生活在一个泡沫中,周围的每个人都知道机器学习是如何运作的,例如,当你遇到这个泡沫之外的人时,他们把AI当作一种宗教,一种他们可以选择相信或不相信的宗教。
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I had a chat with somebody a couple of months ago, a person that I don't know very well and they don't know what I do for a living. They were interviewing for a job and I suggested that perhaps it would be helpful for them to use an LLM of choice to act as a resume coach. And the person I was chatting with was probably, I don't know, 27, 28 years of age. And when I suggested that, their response was, "Oh, so you believe in AI?" Now, they do not work in tech and I'm not expecting anyone outside of tech to really understand how artificial intelligence works. But that conversation made me realize that I live in a bubble where everyone around me knows how machine learning works for example and that when you meet a person outside of that bubble they treat AI as a religion a religion that they can believe in or not.
企业级SaaS的特殊性
在此之上,再增加一个层面,即企业级SaaS与消费级SaaS的区别。如果你在一家消费级SaaS公司从事客户成功工作,我完全理解你为什么会担忧。尽管如我之前所说,你真正应该担心的是你的角色被外包,而不是被AI取代。即使真的发生了,企业级SaaS的世界也在等着你。现在,我们离企业级SaaS公司,尤其是传统科技公司,实现支持和客户体验的完全取代还很遥远。为什么?有几个原因。
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Now on top of this add another layer which is enterprise SAS versus consumer SAS. If you're in customer success at a consumer SAS company I can honestly see why you can be worried. Although like I said before, what you should be worried about is your role being outsourced, not replaced by I. Even if it happens, the world of enterprise SAS awaits you. Now, we are a long way from support and CX replacement at enterprise SAS companies, especially legacy tech. Why? A couple of reasons.
第一个原因与企业软件合同的价格有关。你知道,当你访问一个面向开发者、设计师、产品经理或任何人的应用程序网站时,你经常会看到“个人计划免费”。假设有一个针对五人小团队的计划,每月50美元。然后是“企业套餐,请致电销售”。作为一名产品工作者,关于是否公开企业定价以及是时候展示定价并停止流失潜在客户的讨论有很多。但在实践中,绝大多数企业级科技公司仍然希望通过销售进行交易。为什么?为什么网站上不显示企业定价?因为成本差异很大,而且差异巨大,你可能会看到价格从1万美元到几十万美元不等。
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The first one has to do with the price of enterprise software contracts. You know how often when you go on a website of an app for devs, designers, PMs, anyone really, you often see individual plan free. Let's say there is, you know, a plan for small teams for five people, which is like $50 a month. And then for enterprise package, call sales. Now, as someone who works in product, there are a lot of discussions on the pros and cons of surfacing enterprise pricing and that it's time we show the pricing and stop losing leads. But in practice, the vast majority of enterprise tech still wants to go through sales. Why? Why is an enterprise pricing shown on the websites? Because the costs vary and they vary greatly and you can be looking for the price ranging from $10,000 to hundreds of thousands of dollars.
之所以不显示,还因为没有公司会用信用卡支付2万美元的交易,至少目前是这样,这就是为什么所有企业合同都需要销售人员介入的原因。公司与客户之间的未来关系由价格决定。这就是为什么有一整批客户体验人员的头衔以“企业客户成功”或“企业支持团队”或“企业客户管理”开头。这些客户需要这种服务。他们需要一个专门的客户体验人员,即使聊天机器人更快,因为这些合同几十年来都是这样完成的。是的,未来它可能会减少对人工客户体验人员的依赖,但这需要时间。我无需告诉你北美企业级科技公司中传统文化根深蒂固的程度。
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And it is also not shown because no company is going to put a $20,000 transaction on a credit card, at least for now, which is why sales is looped in for all enterprise contracts. And the future relationship between the company and the customer gets dictated by the price. This is why there is a whole cohort of CX folks whose titles start with enterprise customer success or enterprise support team or enterprise account management. These customers want that service. They want a dedicated CX person even if a chatbot is faster because this is how those contracts have been done for decades. Yes, it is likely that it will get less dependent on human CX staff in the future, but this is going to take time. And I don't have to tell you how deeply legacy culture is rooted in enterprise tech in North America.
以任何一家大型科技企业为例。销售、客户体验和支持层层叠叠。现在,技术已经足够好,可以淘汰其中一半的人,但我们仍然在这里。不要低估企业政治的份量。
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Take for example any massive tech enterprise. Levels over levels over levels of sales CX and support. Now, the technology has been good enough for a long time now to be able to get rid of half of those people. Yet, here we are. Do not underestimate the weight of corporate politics.
公司政策与定价复杂性
现在是这个金字塔的最后一层:公司政策。同样,这与企业级科技公司尤为相关。科技行业的定价谈判和价格形成是如此复杂,如果你要把它绘制成图,那张图会像巴西那么大。企业为服务支付的价格取决于一百万个因素:客户与他们合作了多久、一次性折扣、促销、与客户体验人员的关系等等。在这种情况下,我能给你的最接近的类比是你与主要电信服务提供商之一合作的手机套餐价格。
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And now the last layer of this pyramid, company policy. Again, this is especially relevant to enterprise tech. Price negotiation and price formation in tech is so convoluted that if you were to map it out, that map would be the size of Brazil. The price that enterprises pay for the service depend on a million factors. how long the customer has been with them, one-off discounts, promotions, relationship with CX, etc. The closest analogy I can give you in this case is the price of a phone plan that you have if you are with one of the major telecom providers.
我将以我生活中的一个例子来说明。我住在加拿大。在加拿大,我们喜欢垄断。电信就是一个很好的例子。我们有三到四到五个大型垄断企业控制着整个电信市场。其中之一是Rogers(加拿大电信公司:提供无线、有线电视和互联网服务)。所以,如果你让一百个人排成一排,每个人都使用Rogers,每个人都有完全相同的套餐、相同的数据、相同的通话和短信数量、所有一切都相同,我敢打赌,所有这些人都会为完全相同的套餐支付不同的价格。因为他们获得该套餐的方式有一千种不同的变化。
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I'll use an example from my life. I live in Canada. In Canada, we love monopolies. Telecom is a great example. We have three or four or five big monopolies that control the entire telecom market. One of them is called Rogers. So if you put a hundred people in a row and every single one of them is with Rogers and every single one of them has the exact same plan, the same data, the same number of calls and messages, same everything, I am ready to bet that all of those people would be paying different price for the exact same plan.
他们可能是在“黑色星期五”促销时购买的,再加上他们得到了员工折扣,因为员工非常喜欢他们,再加上他们得到了新客户折扣,然后他们不知怎么每月只支付了30美元。然后你再看客户B,他购买了完全相同的套餐,但那是在“返校季”促销时,而不是“黑色星期五”,而且当天的价格不同。然后你再看客户C,他支付了全价,但他们打电话重新谈判了。这就是我所说的“复杂”。你可以看到这会如何倍增。
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Because how they got that plan has a thousand different variations. They could have bought it on Black Friday sale plus they got an employee discount because the employee liked them very much. plus they got a new customer discount and then they somehow paid $30 a month. And then you take customer B who bought the exact same plan but it was on the back to school sale, not Black Friday and the pricing that day was different. And then you take customer C who paid the full price but they called and renegotiate. This is what I mean by convoluted.
现在,对于B2C(Business-to-Consumer: 企业对消费者)合同,它更容易、更直接,因为你只与一个客户打交道。对于B2B(Business-to-Business: 企业对企业)合同,它就像一个迷宫。根据我的经验,当我看到客户成功人员与客户谈判价格时,他们有一半时间是凭感觉行事。现在,想象一下一个公司通过聊天机器人处理所有这些与B2B客户的谈判。你能想象他们将如何训练这个模型,如何进行微调,以及他们需要做多少工作才能信任聊天机器人有效地进行这些谈判吗?
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You can see how this multiplies. Now with B2C contracts, it's easier and more straightforward because you're dealing with one customer. With B2B contracts, it's a maze. And in my experience, when I saw customer success negotiating price with customers, half the time they play it by the ear. Now, imagine a scenario where a company that handles all of these negotiations with a B2B customer through a chatbot. Can you imagine how they're going to be training that model, how they're going to be fine-tuning, and what kind of work they'd have to do to be able to trust a chatbot to do those negotiations effectively.
这里最大的问题是信任,而不是AI进行价格谈判的能力。公司不会信任聊天机器人来完成这类工作,因为对于大型科技公司来说,首要任务是收入。这是一个非常微妙的平衡。但企业级科技公司还没有达到信任AI进行这类谈判的程度。公司内部将会有巨大的阻力,不让AI处理定价。所以,不,AI目前无法完全取代客户成功,我们离那一刻的到来(如果真的会发生)还很遥远。不是因为AI做不到,而是因为有巨大的人性因素在起作用。
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The biggest problem here would be the trust, not the ability of AI to do the price negotiation. The company is not going to trust a chatbot to do that kind of work because for large tech companies, the number one priority is revenue. And it's a very delicate balance. But enterprise tech is not at a point where they're going to trust AI to do that kind of negotiation. And there is going to be a massive resistance from within the company to let AI handle pricing. So, no, AI as of now cannot eliminate customer success fully, and we're still pretty far from the moment when and if that happens. Not because AI cannot do it, but because there is a massive human factor at play.
如何应对:保持竞争力
实际正在发生什么,以及如何保持竞争力?在整个视频中,我一直在告诉你为什么你不应该陷入AI的歇斯底里。那么,这是否意味着你安全了?不。AI对你的工作构成风险,不是因为它能取代你,而是因为它让以前无法进入你工作领域的人能够进入。而离岸团队对企业来说成本更低,因为他们生活在生活成本更低的地方。女士们先生们,我们生活在资本主义世界中。所以,选择是显而易见的。
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What's actually changing and how to stay afloat? Throughout the entire video, I've been telling you why you shouldn't fall for AI hysteria. Now, does this mean you're safe? No. AI is a risk to your job, not because it can do it instead of you, but because it enables people who couldn't do it before enter your job pool. And offshore teams cost less for businesses because they simply live in places where life is cheaper. And we live in the world of capitalism, ladies and gentlemen. So, the choice is obvious.
这意味着你还有一些时间,虽然时间不是无限的,但确实有一点缓冲。如果我现在从事客户成功或支持工作,不想转行但想保持竞争力,我会怎么做?学习代理式AI(Agentic AI: 能够自主理解、规划和执行任务的AI系统)和代理配置。代理式AI代表了迄今为止最先进的人工智能形式。与遵循预定义规则的传统聊天机器人不同,代理式AI自主运行。它理解自然语言,组织工作流程,并根据收集和分析的数据做出即时决策。
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Now, what this means is that you have some time, and that time is not indefinite, but there is a little bit of a buffer. Here's what I would do if I were in a customer success or support role right now and did not want to change careers but wanted to stay afloat. Learn Agentic AI and agent configuration. Agentic AI represents the most advanced form of artificial intelligence to date. Unlike traditional chatbots that follow predefined rules, Agentic AI operates autonomously. It comprehends natural language. It organizes workflows and it makes instant decisions grounded in data that it gathers and analyzes.
如果我们谈论你的未来,不是明天的未来,而是未来10年,是的,你的很大一部分工作可能会被AI代理取代。所以你日常工作的核心变化将是管理代理的能力,而不是管理客户。要具备操作代理的能力,你必须了解它们是如何工作的。你必须了解不同类型的代理功能:简单反射代理、基于模型的代理、基于目标的代理、基于效用的代理、学习代理等。你需要能够配置代理参数和边界。你需要能够处理多代理编排。为此,你需要掌握如何设计模块化代理式工作流程,如何管理共享上下文和内存,以及如何操作代理式SaaS的技能。你必须精通提示工程(Prompt Engineering: 设计和优化输入以引导AI模型生成期望输出的技术)并非常熟悉相关技术。
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If we talk about your future, not tomorrow's future, but let's say the next 10 years, yes, a good percentage of your jobs may get replaced by AI agents. So the core change in your everyday job will be the ability to manage agents, not clients. To have the competencies to operate agents, you have to know how they work. You have to know the different types of agent function. Simple reflex agents, model based agents, goal-based agents, utility based agents, learning agents, etc. You need to be able to configure agent parameters and boundaries. You need to be able to handle multi- aent orchestration. And for that, you need the skills on how to design modular agentic workflows, how to manage shared context and memory, and how to operate agentic SAS. You have to master prompt engineering and be very well-versed in techniques.
如果你想保持竞争力,我建议你研究客户服务角色转向代理经理的趋势。再次强调,这不会明天就发生,但如果你想在科技客户成功领域长期保持竞争力,这是我建议你关注的。
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If you want to stay afloat, I recommend that you research trend around customer service rules turning into agent managers. Again, this is not going to happen tomorrow, but if you want to stay afloat long term within the realm of customer success in tech, this is what I would recommend looking at.
总结与展望
还记得在“何去何从”系列中我告诉过你,我们还没有进入AI裁员时代,而且它不会像炒作让你相信的那样剧烈发生吗?现在,我正在构建这个系列来向你展示为什么它不会以看起来那样的方式发生。但工作会改变吗?是的。一些角色会被完全淘汰吗?是的。但淘汰并不意味着你们所有人都会被解雇。你的头衔可能会改变。你的职责可能会改变。你的技能组合需要更强大。是的,你们中的一些人可能需要完全重新获得资格。
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Remember how in the where to run series, I told you that we are not in the AI layoff era yet, and that it won't happen as drastically as the hype makes you believe. Now, I'm building this series to show you why it won't happen the way it seems. But will the jobs change? Yes. Will some of the roles be completely eliminated? Yes. But the elimination does not mean that all of you are going to be axed. Your titles may change. Your responsibilities may change. Your skill set will need to be a lot stronger. And yes, some of you may need to re-qualify entirely.
会有更多的AI裁员吗?是的,其中一些将是歇斯底里。但这将是受控的歇斯底里,因为将AI引入日常工作流程并使其安全、道德和可靠,对于绝大多数科技企业来说都是新鲜事物。许多公司将从Klarna、Duolingo和IBM的教训中学习。即使你被解雇了,企业级科技的世界也在等着你。而传统科技的世界在未来10年肯定在等着你。但不要浪费时间。停止恐慌。停止歇斯底里。控制你的焦虑,开始提升技能和建立人脉,这样你就能保持竞争力并茁壮成长。
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Will there be more AI layoffs? Yes, and some of them will be hysteria. But it'll be a contained hysteria because introducing AI into everyday workflows and making it secure, ethical, and safe is new to the vast majority of tech businesses. Many will learn from the lessons of CLA, Dolingo, and IBM. Even if you get laid off, the world of enterprise tech is waiting for you. And the world of legacy is definitely waiting for you for the next 10 years. But don't waste your time. Stop the panic. Stop the hysteria. Get control over your anxiety and start upskilling and networking so you can stay afloat and thrive. As always, I hope this helps. I would love to hear your feedback on this first episode in the new series and we'll see you next time. Thank you very much. Bye.