增量市场与非典型颠覆:AI如何横向扩张法律版图
在探讨人工智能(AI: Artificial Intelligence)对各行各业的重塑时,法律这一高度依赖文字与文献检索的领域通常被认为是最先被颠覆的阵地。然而,真实的市场数据却呈现出完全不同的走向。近期发表的一项名为《AI时代的司法公正》(Access to justice in the age of AI)的研究,通过对美国联邦法院460万起民事案件的分析发现,自ChatGPT发布以来,无律师代理的自诉案件(pro se cases: 诉讼主体不聘请律师,自行进行诉讼的案件)比例出现了急剧增长,特别是在消费者信用、公民权利和就业歧视等领域。在过去20年里,这一比例一直稳定在11%左右,而如今已飙升至17%,相当于每年从2.3万件增加到4.1万件。
然而,在自诉案件大幅增加的同时,由律师代理的诉讼案件总量(每年约19万件)却完全没有下降,依然保持平稳。这一关键数据表明,AI目前并没有取代传统律师或减少律师经手的案件,而是创造了一种全新的增量需求。这种现象被称为横向扩张(horizontal expansion: 市场的宽度增加,但原有市场的核心结构并未改变)。那些利用AI辅助自行提起诉讼的人,原本就是付不起律师费的群体,他们在使用AI前并不会雇佣律师。因此,AI的介入降低了法律服务的门槛,实现了司法资源的可及性,但并没有动摇传统律师的市场份额。在这种横向扩张中,唯一承受负面压力的是法院的法官——尽管法院的收案量和审判活动量因此增加了158%,但法官人数和法院的整体承载力在过去40年里几乎没有发生变化。
Original English
In our past videos, we did deep analysis on how industries are getting transformed by AI. We did an episode on the next Olympic Games becoming one massive data farm. We talked about how the dating apps profit from AI-generated profiles. We spoke about how the music apps change when AI music became a thing. And every now and then, I get comments like these. What about lawyers? When AI becomes so ubiquitous, it is natural to assume that a content-heavy field such as law would be disrupted before anything else. Research became easier. Drafting documents, reviewing legal paperwork is so much faster. People read the headlines about Harvey and assume that disruption is already happening. But is it? Now, I'm not a lawyer by training, but I work in legal tech. And I see how this field is changing right in front of me. So, are lawyers becoming cheaper? Are they becoming obsolete? Are we moving away from the traditional concept of lawyers and billable hour? Today, it's all about the disruption of the corporate legal field. Let's dive in.Last month, a new research paper came out. Access to justice in the age of AI. The authors ran 4.6 million civil cases in the US federal courts and found that since the appearance of ChatGPT, the number of pro se cases and a pro se case is when a lawsuit is being filed without a lawyer. So, the number of pro se cases has increased sharply. Specifically, in categories like consumer credit, civil rights, and employment discrimination. It had been a steady 11% for 20 years straight and is now 17%. Yes, that 6% increase is quite sharp because the number did not change for 20 years. In absolute numbers, the pro se lawsuits rose from 23 to 41,000 per year. Now, what's interesting here is that despite the rise in pro se cases, the volume of cases with lawyers stays flat. Listen to this one more time. The number of cases with legal representation, which is about 190,000 per year, did not drop. It stays exactly the same. What this means is that there is zero evidence that AI is currently capable of replacing lawyers or lawsuits filed with lawyers. Instead, it creates a new type of demand. The core change in this example is that people who previously would not have filed at all are now filing. It is a horizontal expansion of the legal business. And the reason I'm saying that it's a horizontal expansion is because it doesn't change and doesn't disrupt the existing business. Clients are not saving any money because they weren't paying anyway. The audience for these cases are not the people who would otherwise hire a lawyer and are trying to save money. It's the people who wouldn't have filed before. The only party that feels the pressure from this type of newly created business is the judge. Judge is the only party in this equation that feels the consequence of this expansion in a negative way is because there are many more cases now, and activity in courts has increased by 158%, but the number of judges and overall court capacity hasn't changed in 40 years. And these pro se cases become an additional workload. And this workload will keep growing. To sum it up, the disruption that AI is doing in the legal field comes in the form of making something that used to be expensive or difficult much more accessible. And that's great. But this disruption happens in an area where we weren't paying anyway. So, if there is a startup that comes up with a way to reduce the cost by an order of magnitude, that becomes a disruption. But when there is a new market opportunity, it is not really a disruption of the market. It is the expansion. If disruption were to happen in the legal field, the first party that would feel it would be corporations that use big law firms. 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企业法务的幻象:三大预期颠覆路径的现实落空
在大型企业(Big Law)所主导的商业法律领域,传统的计费工时(billable hour: 律师根据实际工作小时数向客户收费的机制)一直被预测将受到AI的严重冲击。业界普遍认为,AI将从三个维度颠覆现有的利润结构:
- AI账单审计: 客户利用AI自动审查律师事务所发送的账单,识别出重复计费、非合规费用或不合理的差旅时间等漏洞,从而向律所施压并削减开支。
- 初级工作自动化: AI直接生成法律文件或进行文献检索,使初级律师(junior associates)原本需要数十小时完成的工作在几分钟内搞定,从而大幅降低计费工时。
- 法务内包化(insourcing: 企业将原本外包给外部律师事务所的业务收回,由内部法务团队利用AI工具自行完成)。
然而,市场反馈的事实却给出了否定的答案:
对于AI账单审计,虽然诸如检查账单中的taxi差旅费等漏洞看似简单,但在实际操作中,企业决定引入并信任AI来进行财务审计的决策成本极高。负责账单审计和合规控制的法律运营专业人员(legal ops: 负责企业法务部门运营、预算和技术采购的岗位)数量依然保持平稳甚至略有增长,自动化并未实质性发生。
对于工作自动化,即使有 Harvey AI、Thomson Reuters CoCounsel、LexisNexis 等专业法律大模型工具的普及,使过去需要40小时的文件审查工作缩短到15小时,但各大律所的收入不仅没有减少,反而创下了历史新高。2025年,美国百强律师事务所(Am Law 100)的平均收费率仅在当年上半年就跳涨了9%,标准费率首次突破了每小时1,000美元的大关。
最后,在法务内包化方面,企业虽然给法务团队配置了AI工具,但这只提高了他们处理日常合同、合规文件等常规工作的速度。真正高风险、高复杂度的业务,如大型并购(M&A)、诉讼以及合规调查,依然必须外包给外部专业律所。企业不愿、也不可能让内部的法务通才去承担法庭辩护或面对监管机构的巨大风险,更不会因为有了AI就去尝试自行解决这些专业度极高的难题。
Original English
The big law revolves around the concept of a billable hour, and AI was predicted to disrupt the notion of the billable hour across three major areas. AI would be able to audit the bills that law firms send and have an ability to push back. This is actually the area of the legal tech that I work in. The one that has everything to do with budgets, legal works, invoices that corporations receive from law firms, market rates for various legal work. Basically, financial services for the legal field. The second area was supposed to be the automation of the research and automating document-heavy work typically done by junior associates, similar to the disruption that consulting is going through. The idea is simple. Drafting documents or researching something becomes very quick, and therefore, the bill that the client would pay will go down significantly because a law firm would simply use less hours or less time spent to do this work. Spoiler, no. The bills did not go down and are not going down. The big law revenue is at record highs. And number three, cutting outside counsel spend because an in-house counsel can now do what they used to outsource. A process known as insourcing. And another spoiler, no, it isn't happening.So, let's go through every single one of these and see what the market tells us. AI to audit law firm bills. Now, what does this mean? I'm going to give you a scenario. Let's say a corporation hires a law firm and the firm completes the work on a certain legal matter that they were hired for. And now the firm sends the bill to the corporation. The corporation looks at it and goes, "Okay, this charge is valid, this charge is valid, but the time you spent in a taxi going from point A to point B, I'm not paying for. And also, you put this charge twice by mistake." Now, this is a gross simplification of this process. My point is there could be duplicate entries, block billing, non-compliant charges, and a million other things in those invoices. And that's what the industry is built around. Now, in reality, I think the best way to understand whether disruption is really happening is to look at the market of the legal ops professionals. Part of the jobs that legal ops do is reviewing those invoices and doing audits. Of course, doing those audits is not the only thing that they do on a regular basis, but it is a meaningful part job. And in reality, there is no disruption in this field. Automation is not happening. Legal ops head count is flat to slightly growing. And lastly, before AI auditing is enabled for a corporation, that corporation has to agree to use AI auditing for their needs. This is much harder than it seems because being someone who builds those tools for large corporations. You get to see how wary people are when it comes to the use of AI.
The second area is automating research-heavy work that would be typically done by junior associates. Now, this area is most visibly disrupted from the tech standpoint. Harvey AI, Thomson Reuters CoCounsel, LexisNexis, Legor Cloud released a version of the model specifically for legal research. And you would think that as research or document drafting get faster, the time spent on a matter will be shorter because well, there's less to do. In reality, law firms became more profitable than ever because of AI. Am Law 100 firms posted record revenue in 2025. Average billing rates jumped 9% in the first half of 2025 alone. Profit per lawyer is up 53% since 2019. Am Law 100's standard rates, once again, standard rates, cracked $1,000 an hour for the first time in history in 2025.
价值捕获与律所的应对策略:效率红利的内部留存
当AI提升了工作速度,将40小时的工作缩减至15小时后,律师事务所并没有将省下来的成本回馈给客户,而是采取了以下四种策略来消化和留存这些效率红利:
- 提高每小时费率: 律所将“高速度和高效率”本身作为核心价值主张(Value Proposition),并以此为由提高单位时间的收费。这类似于美发沙龙提供的“四手服务”(four-hand service: 比如在理发的同时提供面部护理),由于服务在极短时间内叠加并快速完成,其收费反而翻倍。
- 扩大同一案件的研究深度: 将AI省下来的时间用于针对同一法律事项开展更详尽、更稳健的研究与论证,从而使计费工时数保持不变,但交付了更复杂的分析报告。
- 加收AI技术使用费: 将AI工具的使用成本以独立的账单条目(AI technology fee)直接向客户单独计费。
- 重新分配精力以接纳更多案件: 律师将缩短工时省下来的时间分配到其他并行的案件上,通过横向增加案件流来维持并扩大整体的计费总量。
在这一系列操作中,AI的作用是扩大了整个系统(expanded the system),提高了整体的生产力和流转速率,但并没有把资金从法律生态系统中抽走。AI使昂贵的律师变得更快,但也让他们变得更贵;它让底层没有门槛的诉讼变得触手可及,但在最核心的高端法务市场,它依然只是精英律师手中用于提高生产力的工具,而非律师的替代品。
Original English
So, while it is true that AI is being used heavily to do junior associate work faster, when AI cuts a 40-hour document review to 15 hours, the firm has four options. And none of them involve passing savings to the client. The first one is to raise the hourly rate and make the speed and efficiency as the value prop. It's basically the same thing when you're coming to a hair salon to get your hair done, but you pay for a four-hand service to get a facial done while you're sitting in the same chair. The service is double the price exactly because it is getting faster. The second option is to expand the scope and fill the saved hours with more detailed work on the same matter. So, you get more robust research. The third option is to charge AI tools as a separate line item. That would be an AI technology fee. And the fourth is to expand the intake and redistribute the saved hours onto more matters. Now, by no means am I saying that law firms are evil because they're trying to rip off their clients. It's actually quite the opposite. I admire the ability to adapt, even though AI is truly disrupting things like research. And the ability to maintain your business and revenue streams as disruption is happening is an art.And the third area, insourcing. Now, the core problem is that the work that in-house teams are doing with AI, contract drafting, certain legal research, compliance docs, is the work they were already doing internally. Legal AI apps make legal teams faster at their own jobs. It's the same thing when you give cloud code to a developer to speed them up. It speeds them up, but it doesn't replace what they're doing. The high complexity, high stakes work, litigation, M&A, regulatory investigations, still goes to the outside counsel. It is not a question of purchase access to this AI tool and start doing that you couldn't do before. When companies outsource, it is almost always for highly specialized and niche work. And nobody is going to insource an M&A transaction or an intellectual property matter to a generalist in-house general counsel. Or make them stand up in court or in front of regulators to carry that risk because they used AI.
So, to sum it up, at the bottom of the market, AI enables people to file lawsuits that they wouldn't be able to afford if they had to hire a lawyer. But at the top, it makes expensive lawyers faster and more productive. In both places, the pattern is the same. AI expands the system, but it doesn't take the money out of it. The value that AI adds, the value that you can put a dollar sign on, is not disruptive. It exists and it'll grow, but it is 100% not a replacement of lawyer work. It makes something far more accessible, something that wasn't accessible before, but it does so in areas where we weren't paying anyway. As always, we hope this was helpful and we'll see you in the next episode. Bye.
📌 文中提及的人物和组织
公司/组织: Ahrefs, Harvey AI, Thomson Reuters, LexisNexis