Amit: All right. Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode. I am here today with Adam aka Gokarp. I'm putting his Twitter in the chat for those that haven't followed him yet. I have a lot of new subscribers to the channel. So if you don't know who Adam is, he is one of the OGs of the Palantir community, an absolute gem to everyone being able to understand this government business. I think he has spent the past four years I don't know how many hours. I think he got to put over well over 10,000 into understand the government business the way he has and he really has helped the entire retail community understand it. We've done about like six or seven streams over the past year and so I guess this is our eighth one. We're going to go deeper into the government business. Adam, how you doing?

Adam: Good man. It's hard to believe it's been six or seven and yes I watch South Park. I still have zero idea what the 67 thing means. So, I'll just laugh along with it. And thank God Peter Thiel got his own little cameo in there cuz nothing's more validating than being made fun of in a South Park episode.

Amit: Nothing. Nothing could be more validating. All right. So, let's get right into it. Usually, when Adam comes on the stream, he has a lot of things to talk about when it comes to the government business. Again, Palantir's government business four years ago was criticized as being too much of the revenue. And now it is not as much as it was before, but it's almost seen in a more positive light because it's very sticky and given the administration that we have and given the type of margins that Palantir is putting up that government business is not as volatile as commercial, which is actually very nice to have. So narratives have definitely flipped over the past couple years and Adam has been following those narratives. Before we get into all the government stuff, Adam, let's start off with this. We just had I think the single best quarter in the company's history. Arguably one of the best quarters in stock market history. What was your raw reaction to Q3 2025?

Adam: Not really surprising. I mean the funny part is anytime that we have these earning discussions going forward for the next call it five seven years we're always going to say it's the biggest and the best because realistically that's how Palantir's business is going to compound over the next decade. You know, a lot of the stuff that people don't realize, especially if you're new into Palantir, is it's a 23 year old company, but it's only a startup in terms of the stock market world. Because in their history, they only really focused on government and a few of the agencies. When they went public, they're like, "All right, now we're going to go and take the entire market." So these numbers for OG holders like myself, you, Bobcat Gang, everyone in the fellowship, and just in the Palantir community overall, it really shouldn't be surprising.

Adam: I think as an investor, we kind of have to look at the first five years because now we've been a public company for five years in two folds. The pre-boot camp era and the post boot camp era. It's safe to say that the boot camp, I don't want to say saved the stock or the company because it was never really, you know, an issue, but it completely changed the trajectory of it. And now that we've had what is it, a full 18 months of boot camps at this point, maybe it's two years, you know, you're really starting to see the compounding growth rate just off the earnings. I think I saw the top 20 customers now are spending 83 million. Last quarter that was what, like 70 million. So the top 20 customers are spending more. The net dollar retention is starting to tick back up. That number is kind of important for us, but it's also kind of not important for us because when they add these new customers, it kind of skews the figure. But the fact that it's going up is a very, you know, big sign.

Adam: And the main thing for any investor for Palantir at the moment should really just be focused on one thing which is customer growth. And we still have not hit a thousand customers. So I think we're at 911 customers. I'm trying to find it in the presentation. 911. Yeah, 911. So, I mean, they still have tons and tons and tons of, you know, TAM to hit and I don't think they're going to need 20,000 customers. And I'm looking at the slide right now, 530 commercial, and from a year ago, they were at 321. So, 65% year-over-year. 911 in total, year ago, it was 629, 45 year-over-year. So you're talking about drastic commercial growth and obviously government growth in the customer count.

Adam: And as these customers either stay on board, which nine times out of 10 they will, and they increase their customer count, we're going to start seeing these figures just keep getting bigger and better and better and better and better over the next decade. Because as we know, acquire, expand, scale, some of these customers, they're already obviously past the acquired phase and they're hitting that expansion phase. And in some of those, they're hitting the scale. Others, they're just touching that expansion phase. So, we're really starting to see the infancy of the S-curve and the alpha growth. So when you see those posts on Twitter of like you know we'll use Nvidia who we are I'm sure very happy about is one of the customers is you know and it shows their revenue per quarter and it's showing like 300 500 600 750 825 blah blah blah blah blah billion 10 billion like you're going to see those posts with Palantir in the near future. So it's just a matter of time. though the most important thing is just the customer growth. The figures and the earnings are just absolutely disgusting in the best possible way. And I mean I don't know what's the most impressive figure. I mean what would you pick?

Amit: No, I agree. I mean there were the most impressive part of the earnings to me was the operating margins. I mean for for that to be above 50%. It's getting really exciting because if they can continue that growth with these margins, you're having 50 cents of every dollar come to the bottom line. It's just one of the best business models I think we've ever seen. And usually software companies can't get those types of margins. They'll get good gross margins, but not good actual either adjusted operating income or or GAAP net income margins because it's tough because you got to get rid of all the expenses and get that final piece of dollar at the bottom line. And there's a lot of expenses that come up. Usually headcount usually a Salesforce Palantir doesn't have to deal with that which is why it's very interesting.

Amit: Oh let me let me let me ask you this question then we'll get into the government stuff because this is we got to talk about it. Michael Burry billion dollar put position. I mean what was your reaction when you saw that?

Adam: So my reaction was what is he truly at in terms of the value of his position? Because Jack Prescott did a very good post on this. He dug it up. Usually Burry doesn't post these figures until later, but he posted it like I think he did the research like 2 3 weeks before he normally does it. So in my opinion, and granted we don't know and that's the rules of the stock market why many people think it's rigged or manipulated to a degree is he's probably underwater. Maybe now he's break even. Cuz if you remember on the day of earnings, it touched like $220 a share for legitimately like a hot second in the after hours.

Adam: There's no way Burry at that point was looking at that and saying, "I'm going to make money on this." Right now, he might. We don't really know. We need more information. The thing about Burry and definitely Karp's interview where he was being asked about it is this. If you don't have the movie The Big Short, and granted if he never profited off that move to begin with, most investors, especially I'll call them FinTwits, they're not even know who Michael Burry is. So, I don't know why, and I say it also with Kathy Wood, why they get so much attention. Okay, great. He called a crash. He also has been calling for a crash since what, 2023.

Adam: You can be right and be wrong at the same time. A broken clock is right twice a day. And that's what he is. And he's been waiting years. And granted, yeah, 220 to what's the current price? 175, 180. Okay. Yeah, that's a big drop, $40. But you have to remember for OGs, we rode this from $45 to six. And last year, me and you were on this podcast saying, "What do you think the stock price is going to end at?" And we both said, "Oh, maybe around 30 35." I think we'll be very happy being at $180 at this exact moment. If you told us last year on this specific day, I think the stock was 50, maybe 60 bucks. If you told us then, oh, it's going to be at 180 and even cross over 200, we both would have laughed in your face. So, it was definitely we're way ahead of the game as long-term holders.

Adam: Now, granted, if you're a new investor in Palantir and investor, not a trader, you're probably like, "Okay, what do I need to do? Why did I buy it? How long am I going to have to hold it?" The the stock may trade flat for the next six months. You know, it is very expensive. There's no doubt about it. But when you're looking at it compared to its peers, and I always point to Open AI, if Open AI is going to be valued at a trillion dollars, Palantir has to be valued, if not at a trillion, at least more because Open AI loses money. Palantir makes money. OpenAI has a commodity that Karp would say, which is chat. Palantir has the operating system to effectively and efficiently wield said commodity in the correct way in the enterprise.

Adam: And if you look at it through like a coffee bean, I don't know why that's coming in my head. A coffee bean is a commodity. The coffee shop buys said coffee bean and they grind it up and they make coffee out of it. So the bean itself is not very valuable. It's how you utilize it and that's the main thing that Palantir is providing the tools to utilize these AI applications such as a ChatGPT a Grok and a Claude insert LLM here. So the Burry position I think he put it out there because he was saying oh crap margin's going to call and I'm gonna have to sell a lot of assets to cover this because he wasn't just shorting Palantir he was shorting Nvidia.

Adam: Now, I don't own Nvidia. Obviously, I follow Nvidia to a degree, especially now with Palantir and Nvidia partnership. I'm going to be watching it much more closely because one of the main things that we saw through the Nvidia partnership was obviously Jensen mentioning the ontology as the most important stack in the world. Ironically, back in June, DV Deep Value, if you're not following him, he dug up a very interesting partnership, which was Nvidia and Siemens, which was they're in the they're in a I forgot exactly what they do, but they do something with shipyards if I'm not mistaken.

Adam: So, we actually saw back in June that Nvidia and Siemens had a partnership as it related to this digital twin simulation. Well, if you look it up now, we have full confirmation that they are using Palantir, i.e. being Nvidia. And with the news coming out of the other week, it's guaranteed. So now we're actually seeing more network effects. And earlier in the week, 007 and myself, we found articles about HD Hyundai and Siemens partnering up with the Shipyard. So, a lot of people need to understand those that don't know Palantir has a $45 million contract with HD Hyundai. So, that's the connection between Siemens and Nvidia.

Amit: Yeah. And that HD Hyundai is going to get even bigger. And if you cuz HD Hyundai is going to build basically what Airbus built via Skywise they're going to build Oceanwise.

Adam: So we've been watching this pretty much for over a year now just waiting for the official confirmation of Palantir and Nvidia. So now that it's officially out there and you can arguably say that the most valuable company in the world, Nvidia, with the most important company in the world, Palantir together is going to make a quote unquote superpower of software industrialization for the manufacturing base, whether it be for ships, chips, drugs, whatever it might be.

Adam: So a lot of people what they need to understand about Palantir and as they're going to penetrate their market and this is going to coincide with that giant customer growth is when a customer is using Nvidia and then they start using the Palantir ontology that dollar amount of usage and compute goes back to Palantir. So that's really the main thing that people need to see is that even if Palantir is not the direct winner, they are winning by proxy because their partner is quote using it. And you kind of saw that this I think it was on Friday we DV and myself posted it. Accenture had that big, you know, big thing called the forge and I post the video like, yeah, that's not Palantir personally, but that's Accenture using Foundry to give their government customers the power of the ontology.

Adam: So you have Burry shorting literally the most valuable company. Okay, fine. I can understand. All right, the company's worth 5 trillion dollars. How is any company worth 5 trillion dollars? We're not going to get into that. I'm gonna throw a short position. All right, this company is worth a half a trillion dollars. They don't even do $2 billion. I'm going to short that. You have your reasons and you got blown the f up, which is why you pulled your short and you let out that info early and we're not going to know for a couple more weeks. And I wouldn't be surprised if he breaks even now because of this. And that, my friend, is what Karp is talking about market manipulation and why a lot of people like me, you, the average Joe see the stock market as quote rigged because these big boys who have, you know, connections, fat, deep pockets are able to pull this kind of stuff and get away with it.

Adam: And more importantly, if they profit, if they lose, nothing happens to them. Even if they lose, they deserve to feel consequences. Such as Andrew Left and Citron, who so was so happy to talk about Karp selling his sales the other day that I had to point out that keep them in mind that you're in trial for by the SEC for market manipulation. So maybe you should keep Alex Karp's mouth out of your, you know, tweets out of your mouth because selling shares at 50 and now it's at 180. Don't you think that if he knew he would hold on to it? But we'll let them be. They have a lot of attorneys to pay.

Amit: I agree. I also think I 10,000% agree with you. Burry likely was underwater on this position because Q2 is when he initiated the puts. The lowest price we got to in Q2 was 142 and that was like in August when Citron put out their stuff and then it rebounded almost instantaneously up into the 150s and then we got back into the 170s. So at whatever price he initiated the short I mean Palantir was at 220 as you said after hour like he was underwater and still at 180 I mean unless he got that short at 160 175 he's maybe break even maybe a little bit above water he's probably still underwater.

Amit: And then the other question that's really important about this which is also goes back to why he disclosed the position early is if you're shorting something are you looking for a 10% gain no you're looking for like a full collapse right when he shorted the housing bubble he looked for the entire collapse So if he's betting Nvidia and Palantir will completely collapse, I think you've got a bigger issue with the entire economy collapsing at that point because Nvidia is 8% of the S&P 500. It's not that easy for Nvidia to just fall and everything for be okay. Palantir is the biggest AI name in software for them to fall 50%. You're going to have a lot of other things happen. So I think it's really a bet against the market, not even Palantir and Nvidia. And then the question is, do you think he's right to bet against the entire market? and with the type of execution they're both putting up the case.

Adam: I think part of the issue is and I think it's I don't want to say a generational thing and maybe it's more of a an experience thing is especially in the AI names such as Nvidia and Palantir these older suits and analysts if you will they have never seen a technology like this and they can't comprehend how it works and the disruption it's going to bring.

Adam: Now me and you who have not really got to see the software, we don't work for a Siemens or a Nvidia or you know a Fanny Mae and we're not using the software in our everyday lives but we do enough research where we see the people who do use it who talk about it to understand what's coming is they are here to disrupt the spreadsheet and for these suits who are so you know they're just one track mind this is my spreadsheet. This is how I made my value. This is what their peers are trading at. They can't comprehend that a Nvidia can be a five trillion valuation versus a Microsoft or an Apple or whomever who's up there because, you know, they have 20 years of history and all this growth and all this dollar and all this profit, all this money in the bank. And Palantir still has $6.5 billion dollars in the bank.

Adam: So, it's not like they have $2 with Palantir. Obviously, they're not anywhere near, you know, $25 billion a quarter yet. They haven't even touched two billion, but they can't grasp what is coming. And I don't blame them because it's not easy to see it, especially if you don't focus your even if you don't spend two days out of the five days a week of a work week looking at Palantir and their clients and everything that they put out from press releases and other old research that you can look at. you can't comprehend what it's coming at. Which is why when you look at an open AI, and I don't mean to pick on Open AI, but they're they really deserve to be picked on for many reasons, is if they're going to go value at a trillion dollars, and they're going to be in a cash burn and lose 40 billion plus for the next five years for AI related services. And it's AI that's not really going to help bring you, and by you I mean a Tyson Foods or a Cisco or whomever, better bottom line and better profits. Why are you going to give them that trillion dollar valuation?

Adam: Whereas Palantir, they're going to help the company, whether that is the Army, a Fanny Mae, the State Department, save money, get be more productive, and ultimately give them more margin where they can either spend that dollar investing in new manufacturing plants, giving employees more dollars back, whether that's through stock options or bonuses, or, you know, just take that money and put it in R&D more towards Palantir and just be more efficient and save and increase your profit and bottom line. They can't see that and understand that. And I just think it's part of it is generational. And I forgot who told me this. I think back in the 80s there was maybe like 900 companies or whatever it was like public or,00 and now there's only like 600 or seven. I forgot what the figure was. So everything is changed and when you're changing on a spreadsheet model and a company comes along like Palantir that's going to say I'm going to end your spreadsheet they can't fathom it and I think that's just part of it.

Adam: So from a normal standpoint okay this company makes $500 million but they're worth $500 billion. I'm shorting it on the surface level makes sense. But once you start digging up those rocks and you start seeing okay its peer is worth this but its trajection is this. It's got this in the backlog. Oh and then it might have this coming in 36 months. You can't value it properly. It's a disruptive technology that has never been seen before and never been used before. Remember 911 clients and how many of those are government? Four 500. So, it's even less of people to ask and interview and look and see because you're not going to be able to go up to the army and be like, "So, can you give me an all-in down break of the Maven Smart system and don't leave anything out?" They're not going to tell you that. So, so, you know, I wish Burry and the rest of the suits shorting it much luck. I'll gladly accept more short interest on the stock because bulls, we're buying still.

Amit: Yeah, and look, we've been buying since it was below $10. And that's the other thing I think Burry isn't fully factoring in is you got a lot of people that are just going to hold it. Palantir could fall 50% from here, people are still going to hold the shares that they bought at 10 20 bucks. So, it's just one of those things where I agree disruptive technology like this has humbled all of us that felt, oh, the stock can be get expensive. It's like, yeah, we all know it's expensive, but there's at this point, what 400 billion in market cap? This is not retail. A good chunk of it's retail that you know bought early on but you don't get a half a trillion dollar company all made of retail in that there's institutions that have come in and said we believe this story is real we don't really understand how to value it but we are going to get exposure to it and if they keep executing the way they're executing I think it's going to be hard for the shorts to deal with it.

Amit: let's transition to the government side of the business. So, there's a lot to talk about in the government business. I think let's get right into this headline. In August 1st, Palantir signed a $10 billion enterprise agreement with the Army. This involved 75 specific contracts for driving essentially more data analysis capabilities. You've been tracking a lot of these 75 contracts for a long time or at least since August 1st and you have a lot of insight into them. I guess let's get started with what do you think these 75 contracts are going to entail and which of the few do you think we should focus on?

Adam: so it's going to be very hard to give an actual concrete answer on this because it's over 10 years and obviously with the government shutdown we are in fiscal year 26 so who knows what that's delaying for the fiscal year 26 never mind what's going to be delayed in fiscal year 29. So, but out of these 75 contracts, about 11 or 12 I found already what's coming. Some of them, you know, they're all open, not specifically to Palantir. They are open for other people to provide information and to bid on, but the likelihood of them getting it unlikely.

Adam: And I say that for a couple reasons. One, they wouldn't have put these 75 contracts in a bucket and tie it to Palantir unless the Army felt confident that another vendor competitor, which they don't have, can come along, do what they need to do either better or cheaper, and they're forecasting this 10 years out. So, you know, that's why I feel like they they're they're going to get the majority, if not all of the 75. Some might get cancelled, some might get, "All right, we're not going to go forward with this because you could do it through this one and that one." And you know, maybe Palantir at the end of the day, they get 70 contracts at $9 a half billion dollars. I don't think anyone is going to be crying. Well, you didn't get the other five for 500 million. You know what? They're they're going to get the majority of of the money.

Adam: And with what's coming, you have to remember that it's an enterprise agreement for the Army and agencies. So this does not include the Navy, the Air Force, the Space Force. So I wouldn't be surprised if we see once the government reopens because I know I said this back on your show in January, we're our godamn Navy deal. So, I wouldn't be surprised because yes, Palantir was supposed to get a1 billion dollar Navy deal back in January and we saw it on the government website. It just hasn't been announced yet.

Adam: Correct. So, I am of the mindset and I could be very wrong that the Navy is going to give Palantir the same site, same type of offer, 75 contracts, $10 billion. Maybe even the Air Force takes a shot at it in a similar way. I would not be surprised. The Navy is the slowest one to move and with what Palantir is doing on a commercial side through a Siemens and Nvidia and HD Hyundai and the Blue Forge Alliance, you know, their main thing is ship building. How do we build more ships? How do we do it quicker, more productive, and more cost-effective? They're not going to go in there and start making Aegis destroyers like Lockheed. What they did do though, and this is one of their first partnerships, if you recall, this is many, many moons ago, is that they said to Lockheed, "Hey, you have Aegis, we have Apollo. Together, you're going to be able to deploy all your software across the entire fleet while you're in the middle of the ocean and need to do A, B, C, and D." So that's why one of the first things was the Aegis Apollo partnership. So, I wouldn't be surprised if you see another type of these enterprise agreements with the Navy, with the Air Force, with the Space Force.

Adam: Now, as it relates to this specific one, there's a lot of agencies in the Department of War now that are different that are not part of the army. So, some of them such as the Defense Intelligence System Agency, Dissa. So with Dissa last year, Palantir got awarded a one-year I think it was 10 maybe 12 million prototype for the electromagnetic battle management joint decision support system. So Amit knows and I'm sure he's tired of me saying this because I've been saying this for over a year now. The spectrum is coming and the spectrum I think is going to be big dollars.

Adam: So, and I did post this the other the about a couple weeks ago is they did have out there a electromagnetic warfare rapid integration system opportunity and this opportunity is in connection to the army open solicitations which is connected to the 75 enterprise agreements. So, I'm very I wouldn't be surprised because that one-year deal is passed. But what we saw, I want to say in May is an article that showed that Dissa, who was overseeing this, and Stratcom, that's strategic command. So, for all the people who aren't familiar, I think it is important that you know there's 11 combatant commands. All 11 combatant commands are using Maven, but Stratcom and Dissa put out an article and a press release basically saying this thing works and it is just I'm sorry. I tried my best. 30 minutes is pretty good.

Adam: So they are they provide this electromagnetic battle management tool to help with the electromagnetic spectrum. And I have to bring it up now that I just go in there is I was quoted in one of the Palantir haters articles, Lauren Ballock, appreciate it. Thank you for the free press. I posted an image of just a battlefield image with no context and I just said when people ask what Palantir does, I'm going to show them this image. That image was I don't know who created it but it was posted by NATO from two years ago about the electromagnetic spectrum. So what Palantir is providing is the tools for the war fighter to see the spectrum.

Adam: because what a lot of people don't understand and this is very very advanced stuff and I even I don't understand it to the highest levels is right now when you go into the battlefield you want to see the enemy. You want to be able to see this is where they're positioned. This is what they have. This is what they have 10 miles out. This is what could potentially be coming if we move this position here. Is they provide this tool to allow the war fighter to see the spectrum. The electromagnetic spectrum in conjunction with the 75 enterprise agreements through this one contract could potentially be a billion dollar contract. I'm just pulling that out of thin air. It might be 500 million. We don't know.

Adam: So, the key thing to remember is you have that opportunity with this one-year prototype that has been fulfilled. And Stratcom, for those that don't know, Stratcom is probably I don't want to say the main combatant command, but they're the ones that are overseeing, you know, I'll call it strike packages, the nuclear arsenal, and they are the ones putting it together in the a global scale. So when they did operation midnight hammer over the summer or whenever that was five, six months ago when the US dropped those ordinance bombs on Iranian nuclear facilities, Stratcom is playing a part of that. And if you go back and you listen to the commanders when they talked about the actual strike package, they talked about electronic warfare and they basically said we were able to enter enemy territory unnoticed, come in, do our thing, no one attacked us, did what we need to do and come back home safely with not one bullet fired, no one injured, did successful package, right? So that's what Palantir is providing. So when people try to say like, oh, what do they do? Palantir just provides the tools and the resources to quote shorten the kill chain on the defense side.

Adam: With that said, a lot of people need to understand that they have a lot of products and services that aren't very in public, which is why I was very excited when Sham mentioned on the past earnings Maverick and Gaia because Maverick...

Amit: can you talk can you talk a little bit more about that? What are some of these because these might be the new Mavens of one day essentially?

Adam: Well, they're definitely not the new Mavens. So, let's just make that clear. So Maven is overall Maven provides a common operating picture. So what Maven would do is I'm trying to simplify it as easy as possible. So Maven provides the armed forces the ability to connect sensors to shooters to quicken that kill chain. So what Gaia what Gaia would do is it securely integrates into all phases of the operation a geospatial a geospatial tooling enable that allows the analyst and the operator to work within a shared map interface for intelligence operation preparation digital mission planning and live battle tracking on top of an integrated data set. The user across the mission enclaves and the command can concurrently build a holistic operation plan with a shared understanding of both mission and operating environment. So what that basically means is Gaia is able to take from a geospatial network i.e. Maven or integrated into Maven, take all these map interfaces with all the information related to it, put it in a common operating picture for the operator and they can see and if you and if you've seen Palantir demos or images, you can see when they do that geospatial stuff where they show the globe and they show the forces, that's Gaia.

Amit: that would be like implemented within Maven is what you're saying.

Adam: This is why I wanted to talk about army intelligence data platform. I was a big believer that it happened through Maven. It doesn't. So right now what I'm seeing is there's Army intelligence data platform and there's the Maven smart system. Army intelligence data platform is more geared toward and maybe I'm wrong on this but it's just because of how I'm researching it is more geared toward the spectrum and the electromagnetic spectrum because what we're seeing is the operators are using both AIDP so not AIP AIDP and Maven to fuse it together and see everything in one shared pane of glass what they're trying to do is is to put everything together. But like I said before, it's new technology. They've never done this before. It takes time.

Adam: So just everyone to understand exactly what AIDP is. Army intelligence data platform. It's a cloud-based platform that's designed to unify and streamline intelligence operation across the army defense and intelligence community. So with through close collaboration and continuous feedback from Army Military Intelligence Brigade, AIDP delivers a highly configured solution that replaces legacy stove pipes with a single integrated environment empowering battlefield leaders with real time actionable insights while also dramatically reducing infrastructure costs.

Amit: Yeah. And this is also really important because like AIP is on the commercial side, Maven's on the government side. AIDP might become sort of the new offering that is integrated with a lot of these different Mavericks, etc. And that could be another vector of growth that people are.

Adam: Maverick, just for what it's worth, it's it's more related to striking if I'm not mistaken. So, it's more related towards Air Force related stuff because that's what I've been seeing it in. And it's just funny because I firm talk about Maverick like two and a half years ago. So when he brought it up again, I was just like, "Oh, oh, okay." They let it marinate for a while. So, but it's it's nice to see it go.

Adam: But AIDP, and this is to give you a better understanding. And I kind of found a very great article or a couple if you will about how the army is using AIDP and the processes that it's going through. So you have AI and this is this is the military speaking. This is not me. So you have operation Spartan chain and this is where it's all going through. So during Operation Spartan Chain, you had the 34th Infantry Division's deployment with the G2. The G2 are intelligence commanders. The available space inside the expandable van allowed for one geospatial intelligence workstation. So this is also within Titan if I'm not mistaken. So that intelligence commander is in a Titan using Gaia trying to make this all easy. one geoet plotter on an intelligence fusion server and 10 classified network workstations with access to multiple web applications such as AIDP Maven and chat surfer. So you're in a Titan, you have one operator using GeoNet kind of stuff. So they're using Gaia, a meta constellation. Then you have one worker who's working on the fusion part of it. So how do we fuse all this information together from Gaia AIDP Maven Chat surfer looks to be something created by DARPA.

Adam: The critical role of signal intelligence and electronic warfare in tactical operations. And there's about three or four phases. Palantir is involved in all those phases because the operator is seeing everything through a maven smart system or an AIDP. In phase three, engage and destroy with the drone rendered ineffective, the fire support element coordinates an artillery strike on an enemy in a UAS, which is an unmanned aerial, you know, if you will, ground control station, leveraging the precision geoloc, Gaia, refined by enhanced tools like the electromagnetic warfare planning tool and management tool and the army intelligence data platform. Simultaneously, the electronic warfare platoon continues to jam enemies communications, preventing coordinated support or retrograde. Friendly forces neutralize the target, allowing maneuver elements to proceed unimpended. So, right there in that phase three, they're using Army Intelligence Data Platform and EWPMT.

Adam: That's why when I first started coming on here, I was very big on MOSA, MOSA, MOSA, MOSA, MOSA, because a lot of the stuff either a has already been built by these big legacy contractors like Raytheon or Lockheed or it's these new guys that have to come into the defense ecosystem, but don't either have the manpower, resources, or the technology to get it all. That's where Palantir comes into play. they're able to connect all the stove pipes and create the common operating picture.

Adam: The 18th Airborne Corps who helped develop the Maven Smart System, they do these exercises to refine the system. And in one of the older exercises, and it was from earlier this year, they had this part called intelligence support and targeting. regarding systems and their interoperability passing objects between Army Intelligence Data Platform and Maven Smart System specifically within the target workbench tool. So you have was significantly limited during this exercise. The bifurcation of observation and object-based production created a significant time gap. Now how big is this time gap you might be asking? Typically 10 minutes. On the battlefield it's eternity. So, if that's where the system is right now, there's a 10-minute lag, and every day it gets better, faster, more efficient. What happens when 10 minutes becomes 1 second?

Adam: That's why Maven is a prototype because you're having these gaps. Now, I'm going to finish reading my little thing before the data populated into Gaia, fourth product. So, there's a 10-minute gap before it goes into Gaia. This time gap caused by cascading effects that restricted the 18th Airborne Corp's ability to conduct dynamic targeting, especially in the fast-paced large-scale combat operation environment. This would allow the analysts and targeters to gain efficiencies by associating information and intelligence to the objects to build the target pack in AIDP instead of previously used PowerPoint slide deck. So, take your PowerPoint, print it out, wipe your ass with it. It's done. It's over. It's gone. It's a dinosaur. Goodbye. This is why the analysts can't get it. Spreadsheets, it's done. PowerPoints, it's done. It's a dinosaur. It's going extinct.

Adam: Unfortunately, the target information cannot be passed to the Maven Smart System. The limitation forced the 18th Airborne Corpse G2s getting team to operate on Maven Smart System almost exclusively to support the fires and to use target workbench residing in Maven smart system. So now you're starting to see and understand why Maven is so important and why it's still in prototype stage. This exercise I think was in May or April of this year. So next year when the report comes out maybe 10 minutes is 5 minutes maybe it's 2 minutes I don't know but this is why Maven is so critical to the armed forces and still in prototype stage because in defense context never mind 10 minutes 10 seconds can be the difference between life or death so that's why they haven't awarded Maven a fullon official program of record. They're still working out the quirks. They're still working out the cost.

Adam: Nevertheless, it provided a key opportunity for the intelligence officers to provide feedback on the issue and work directly with AIDP representatives, begin an investigation and a solution. What does that mean? Palantir FDEs were told, "Dude, this thing is going to get us killed unless you make it quicker and more efficient." We weren't able to do this, which is the OODA loop. And Sham even mentioned, I know that was like one of the first things I shared on this stream with you and your followers was the OODA loop. They need to make everything as quick as possible.

Adam: So, you're starting to see now that Maven's not perfect. It's not, but it's so far ahead of the game that in five years when the prototype is done, and we don't know the NATO deal, we don't that it will become maybe instead of a five-year, $480 million prototype, it will become a five-year $5 billion official program of record.

Amit: do you think Karp and the Ministry of Defense in Poland made a deal because of what's going on with Maven with NATO as well?

Adam: I don't think it was specifically quote because of Maven. I think it's because of what has gone on in Russia Ukraine over the past couple years.

Amit: a lot of people have been asking me, you know, and maybe for you this might be a little bit rookie because me and you have talked so much about it over the years, you know, what is Maven and what is JADC2?

Adam: So, JADC2 is joint domain command and control. It's basically to connect the sensors and shooters to quicken the kill chain. It's just a vision. Maven is part of that vision to bring the armed forces to a JADC2, you know, fighting force. So when you see countries like Poland signing deals like this, it's because they have seen Ukraine fight off the Russian army using a a significantly smaller army.

Adam: because the Ukrainians are so good at drone warfare and electromagnetic, because the Russians are really good at electronic warfare that they're becoming so good at it, they have incentivized their fighting force through a call of duty strategy via the company store. So if you go and you kill 10 Russians and you can prove that you can go to the Bravo One company store built on Palantir most likely and you can get better drones, better equipment. So they're literally doing Call of Duty style like, "Oh, you ranked up now you get this new gun skin now you get this better drone." And this is incentivizing them to actually go out there and build better stuff, right? Do this, do that, because if you want to survive in that foxhole, you need the best possible equipment.

Adam: Which brings me back to more 75, which is our good friends who were hating on the NGC2 battle system, next command and control system, which as you saw, I posted this about maybe a week and a half ago. I saw this great video of them using it and I took a screenshot and you could see it has palunteer.gov in the link. You might want to pull that up. It was so awesome. Just getting validation.

Amit: Yes. Well, this is also what caused the Reuters controversy a month ago.

Adam: Exactly. So with the NGC2 that Reuters came out, they basically said there was inefficiencies and things weren't working well. The problem is they were citing an old old exercise that was already outdated. And a week before this, I posted an article talking about how they were doing an exercise where they were using this system, that link that you're looking at right there, to deploy shooters. And that's the whole point of JADC2 is to connect the sensors to shooters to quicken the kill chain. So they're going on to this NGC2 network which has components of Anduril and components of Palantir as well as others.

Adam: So, what they're doing with this NGC2 is they're refining it, making it quicker, better, more efficient, cheaper, and you get an opportunity like this, which is the calls for solutions army applications lab, which is part of the 75. And how do I know Palantir is going to get this? because it is specifically mentioning the fourth infantry. Now the fourth infantry is one of the key infantry groups that is specifically being tested for NGC2 Maven and these other advanced technologies that Palantir and others are building.

Adam: So, the Army Future Command is seeking innovative, readily available solutions for use of the Fourth Infantry Division based in Colorado, by the way, at the beginning of the calendar year of 2026. These solutions should be capable of extending experimentation with soldiers in the field focused on at least one of eight capabilities focused areas listed in section C. They should be open to integration with the next generation command and control palunteer prototype ecosystem that the program executive office command control and communication network is developing over the next 18 months within the fourth infantry. So these are the eight that they mentioned. movement and maneuver unmanned or improved security tech safety and security of operation including route mine clearance breaching bunker trench blah blah blah blah blah. So that right there basically is Titan. mission command, that's tools that process the data, that's your NGC2, that's Palantir, your intelligence, loitering capabilities and sensor network. Palantir has a sensor intelligence platform. Reconnaissance and targeting acquisition, that's going to be your AIDP and Maven. Your fires, your drone swarm or sensor to soldier systems that aid in target acquisition, that's going to be your AIDP and your target pack that we just discussed. Your sustainment, that's autonomous, convoy, aerial, and ground resupply capabilities.

Adam: And health tools, and that's really cool. the health tools. I found one that's actually I don't want to get deep into it because I have to do a lot more digging, but it's called NASH. And basically what they want to be able to do is if you're a soldier and you got shot and you're bleeding in your arm or your leg, they want to be able to deploy an autonomous system, a robot, and maybe it's an Optimus or a figure robot if they can get there, go to the soldier, and stop the bleeding the the robot itself. And they're trying to do that because I think I forgot where it was that I read it that they said the time from, you know, soldier down to like actually brought to like the medical, I think they said it was about like in Israel they said it was like 3 to 5 minutes, but granted it's a lot smaller space. I think they said like out in the Indo-Pacific or if in another battlefield space it's like 8 to 12 minutes if you're losing blood eight minutes is a long time. So that right but they're going to be hopefully training that software on Palantir.

Adam: and information is tools that can scan to detect for network vulnerabilities, automated monitoring of disinformation. Doc Gang and myself, we actually saw something the other week and we never published it, but there was a I'll call it a rogue officer, if you will. He was doing stuff that he shouldn't have been doing and he got caught and they dismissed him. How did he get caught? Because Palantir provides the system where if you abuse your power, there's an audit trail and the person above you can see that. So this person thought he was so cool doing his thing, obviously not doing what he was supposed to be doing and he just ruined his life. All because the system is built with these kinds of capabilities and vulnerabilities or to detect said vulnerabilities so that you can't take information away if you're not supposed to or get information if you don't have this permit or this level of access.

Adam: So when Karp's talking about I forgot if it was the CNBC interview or the or not not the Axios one, the CNBC one or another one, but he said three trillion and 10x. There were two different interviews. so when he's talking about $3 trillion market cap and a 10x in 5 years from here, this is how it's these systems. It's these tools because Uncle Sam is the biggest spender in the entire world. And once these systems get flushed out and to the exact point where they need it to be, they're going to get paid.

Amit: people just don't know what's coming, right? And that's where you get the suits and the analysts and the rishies that now have us at a $50 target instead of 45. So, thanks Rishi for that. They don't see what's coming. What is your message to everyone about what you think is coming in the future, what Palantir knows is coming in the future, but what some people still are too skeptical to really see playing out.

Adam: So, I'll answer that from a government context. Because that's mostly where I focus on and that's where Uncle Sam spends the most. And I'll use the State Department as an example. I came on your show last year in August to talk about this artificial intelligence solution that I knew they were going to win because they were the only ones that made sense and it was for the State Department we learned and they got a one-year $420 million contract in that when that one year ends. What's going to happen? They're going to get a bigger contract most likely.

Adam: So when you can't see what's coming, just look at your government. From the IRS to the VA to the State Department to the Department of War, all of them are going to be running on AI. Now, if they're going to be using AI, such as Chat GPT, Gac, insert AI application LLM here, there has to be an operating system to make sure that it doesn't hallucinate and it's used effectively and correctly. and without providing the wrong answer. That's the ontology. That's Palantir.

Adam: So, if you don't know where it's going, I recommend a couple things. Follow myself and Bobcat Gang because you'll get a very good idea. Or just read what they put out there, both Palantir and Uncle Sam, because even though they are, I'll call it a a political company. They are in a very political world right now. It doesn't matter if it's Republican, Democrat running the show. The system is going to be there regardless because no one can do what they can do.

Adam: So the Pentagon for example, they put out a memo about three months ago that they want AI running on three million computers in the next six to nine months. That was three months ago. So if the Pentagon wants three million computers running AI applications, that's 3 million operators using Palantir. Now, will they also use an OpenAI? I'm sure they will. I'm sure they'll also use Grock. I'm sure they'll also use some other LLM that has not come along yet that we have no idea that no one's even thought of. But the point is the operating system for artificial intelligence and machine learning is Palantir. It's foundry. So in the government context, you're just going to see massive expansion from both the United States and the West and their allies.

Amit: Yeah. Yeah. And I think for all of us it's been it's been a it's been a good problem to have, but it is indeed a problem. All of us felt that in 2030 Palantir would be $100 and we'd have a big party in Vegas because we saw it at $6 in 22. So we're like, all right, over eight years it'll probably get to 100, maybe 150. We'll have a party. We got to 100 in two and a half years. And then we got to 200 eight months later.

Amit: So, so for us it's we know that the story that we found in in the in the depths of the bare market in 2022 has now been discovered by the world and then you have this faction of the world saying that story is not good enough for it to be pulling forward all that growth and all that premium and we're acknowledging like yeah they're pulling forward a lot of growth and premium but as you said this story is evolving the company is executing at a level we haven't seen before and obviously the stock is expensive but if you care too much about the stock and not the story which is what really matters for the stock to eventually grow into its valuation and continue to expand its multiple and get to that three trillion as Carp is talking about, you're going to miss it. And I think that's the nuance all of us have had to deal with, which is that the stock has vastly caught up to the performance of the company, but the performance of the company is still so good that the stock still has more room to run over the long term, but you have to really have a long-term view.

Adam: Absolutely. and myself and everyone in the fellowship since we've been following Palantir since DPO. We've always said 504 504 is inevitable. It's going to come and eventually it'll go past 504 and I'll just be patriotic and say 1776. So, you know, just keep buying dips and holding if you believe in the company and it's going to hit what it claims it's going to do.

Adam: And the crazy part about it is Europe is such a I don't want to use the word black hole, but there's such a lagger in this that we will see massive growth from other parts of the world outside of the US. But I think once Europe catches up, because they're catching up from a government perspective, like it's going to all come in through NATO and government like we see with MHS, NATO, and all these other programs. Once the commercial starts to adopt it, that's when things are going to get real spicy and that's probably not going to come till the 2030s from outside the US. But like you said, it's just a long story and they are accomplishing so much. And think about it like this. They can only do X in 24 hours. So it's one day at a time and they are hitting on all cylinders. And they are set out to really revolutionize the Western world. And I truly believe they're going to do it. You cannot have working, truthful, efficient AI without Palantir.

Amit: I agree. and they've been working 20 years for this moment via the ontology which is the orchestration of these LLMs and then as you said there's a lot of international revenue that is yet to be achieved yet and that's coming and when that comes along with how US commercial is growing it really is the story that could be one of the best stories in the history of the market

Adam: and me and you will be there every step of the way

Amit: I love it Adam thank you so much there's his Twitter right there in the chat shout out Adam DV Bobcat gang you you guys have been absolutely invaluable to this story over the past 10 years or really it feels like 10 years really four or five years. Um but in 2030 when we're doing another stream like this it's going to be crazy to know that in 2025 we were talking about what the army of 2030 looks like and then it's I mean just like even reminiscing on 2022 and how far things have progressed. It really is just been one of the best journeys of our entire lives

Adam: and much more to go.

Amit: Adam, thank you so much. Thank you everybody for joining. I'll see you guys on the future show in a couple hours and we'll see you next time with Adam. Bye everybody.