美国大选日选情与选民心声
《纽约时报》为您带来新闻头条。我是特蕾西·芒福德（Tracy Mumford）。今天是11月3日，星期二。以下是今天的重点内容。
英文原文
>> From the New York Times, it's the headlines. I'm Tracy Mumford. Today is Tuesday, November 3rd. [music] Here's what we're covering.老实说，我既不是共和党人，也不是民主党人。我只是看怎么做才最符合我家庭的利益。
英文原文
>> I'm not a Republican or a Democrat, to be honest with you. I'm just looking at, you know, what's in the best interest of my family.今天是美国的选举日。
英文原文
>> It is election day in the US.医疗保健是一个非常非常重大的议题，特朗普，你打算对此做些什么呢？
英文原文
>> Healthcare is a big, big issue, and Trump, like what are you going to do about it?我们现在面临的困境就是所有东西的高昂成本。情况相当惨淡。
英文原文
>> struggle that we have right now is just the high cost of everything. It's pretty bleak.全美各地的美国人正前往投票站，有机会对特朗普总统的第二任期做出裁决；他的第二任期以关税、一场不受欢迎的对伊朗战争以及严厉的移民打击为标志。
英文原文
>> And Americans across the country are headed to the polls for the chance to deliver a verdict on President Trump's second term, which has been marked by tariffs, an unpopular war with Iran, and an aggressive immigration crackdown.共和党人大体上正准备迎接损失，这并不反常。在过去至少100年左右的时间里，控制白宫的政党在中期选举中失去席位是常态。今年，共和党人普遍预计将失去对众议院的控制权，他们对参议院的担忧也日益增加，尽管那里的局势要更复杂一些。
虽然民调显示民主党人在几场关键的参议院竞选中领先，但他们赢得多数席位的途径需要穿过一些长期的共和党据点州，例如得克萨斯州和堪萨斯州。
随着今天有如此多席位待决，许多美国人将坐立难安，而保持耐心将是关键。
英文原文
Republicans are largely bracing for losses, which is not unusual. More often than not, for at least the last 100 or so years, the party that controls the White House loses seats in the midterms. This year, Republicans widely expect to lose control of the House, and they've grown increasingly worried about the Senate, too, though that's a more complicated picture.While polling has shown Democrats with a lead in several key Senate races, their path to getting a majority runs through a number of states that are long-time Republican strongholds, like Texas and Kansas.
With so much up for grabs today, a lot of Americans will be on the edge of their seat, and it will be key to be patient.
开票现象与“选举幻象”
随着开票结果开始出炉，需要牢记的一件非常重要的事是：你看到的首批选举结果可能无法代表最终的计票情况。一名候选人在最初的开票报告中可能遥遥领先，但随着夜色加深和更多选票被统计，这种领先优势可能会缩小甚至反转。这种现象被称为“幻象”。
英文原文
>> One really important thing to keep in mind as the results start coming in is that the first election results that you see may not be representative of the final vote tallies. A candidate could be way ahead in the initial vote reports, but that lead could shrink or even reverse as the night goes on and more votes are counted. This phenomenon is known as a mirage.克里斯汀·张（Christine Jang）为《纽约时报》报道选举数据。她表示，幻象可能由多种原因引起。
英文原文
>> Christine Jang covers election data for the times. She says mirages can for a number of reasons.最常见的原因可能是该县或州在不同时间处理不同类型的选票。例如，一些州会提前预处理邮寄选票、缺席选票和提前投票，而这些类型的提前选票往往倾向于民主党。所以，在这种情况下你可能会看到“蓝色幻象”。可能发生这种情况的另一个例子，是某个州内的某些特定区域率先汇报。因此，在某些州，较小、偏乡村的县最先报告，这就造成了一定程度的“红色幻象”，因为全美大部分地区的乡村县都倾向于共和党。
这可能会引起混淆或招致对计票的怀疑，但必须记住，取决于具体的州或辖区，类似这样的幻象相当普遍，而且在一定程度上是可以预测的。
英文原文
>> The most common reason could be that the county or state processes different types of ballots at different times. For example, some states pre-process mail and absentee and early ballots and those types of early votes tend to lean Democratic. So, you'd see a blue mirage in this case. Another example of when this might happen is when certain kind of areas in a state report first. So, in some states the smaller, more rural counties are the first ones to report and that creates somewhat of a red mirage because rural counties in most of the country leans Republican.This might cause confusion or invite suspicion about the vote count, but it's important to keep in mind that mirages like this are quite common and somewhat predictable depending on the state or jurisdiction.
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英文原文
>> [music]进入选举之夜需要记住的另一件事是，可能在一段时间内都不会有明确的结果。在2022年和2024年，确定哪个党派控制众议院都花费了八天时间。
《纽约时报》将在进程中提供实时更新。
英文原文
>> The other thing to keep in mind heading into election night is that it's possible there will not be clear results for a while. In 2022 [music] and 2024, it took eight days to call which party would control the house.The times will have live updates as we go.
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英文原文
>> [music]特朗普宣布百万美元选民欺诈举报赏金
与此同时，
英文原文
>> Meanwhile,我还将向任何举报选民欺诈的人发放100万美元的奖金、报酬，或者随你怎么称呼它。
英文原文
>> I'm also going to be issuing a million-dollar a bonus, a reward, or whatever you want to call it for anybody that reports voter fraud.在其中期选举竞选期间，特朗普总统继续就大范围的选举欺诈提出未经证实的指控，而且他最近通过宣布一项赏金加大了信息传播的力度——为能促成选举欺诈定罪的信息提供100万美元。
如今，一些地方当局表示，他们担心总统的悬赏可能会加剧动荡甚至引发私刑警戒，导致美国人今天在投票站以怀疑的目光互相打量。
亚利桑那州皮马县的治安官告诉《纽约时报》，引用他的原话：“我们的选举是在地方层面处理的，但现在却有可以说是来自联邦层面的狂风暴雨（fire and brimstone）降临。”威斯康星州绿湾警察局局长表示，他担心该悬赏可能会进一步加剧投票站点的紧张局势。白宫拒绝对这笔赏金将如何出资、或美国人应如何举报欺诈的问题做出回答。
英文原文
>> Throughout his midterm campaigning, President Trump continued to make unsubstantiated claims about widespread voting fraud and he upped the stakes of his messaging recently by announcing a reward, $1 million for information that leads to an election fraud conviction.Now, some local authorities say they're concerned the president's offer could fuel unrest or even vigilantism with Americans eyeing each other with suspicion at the polls today.
The sheriff of Pima County, Arizona told the times, quote, "Our elections are handled at the local level, but yet we have fire and brimstone if you will coming down from the federal level." And the head of the police department in Green Bay, Wisconsin said he was concerned the reward could further heighten tensions at polling sites. The White House declined to answer questions about how the reward would be funded or how Americans should report fraud.
美军打击伊朗格什姆岛及霍尔木兹海峡局势
昨天在伊朗，美国对格什姆岛发起了新的打击，美国官员称这是小规模的防御性行动。
该岛紧靠霍尔木兹海峡最狭窄的部分，此次打击是美国过去几周在伊朗境内实施的一系列类似袭击中的最新一次，尽管两国都未曾公开承认这些袭击。
据一位美国官员称，这些打击旨在制止伊朗对商船的袭击，此类袭击一直在增加。上个月，伊朗在海峡向船只开火的次数比迄今为止战争期间的任何时候都要多。另一位美国官员表示，昨天的打击是在伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队击落一架美军无人机并向两架在附近飞行的美军战斗机开火（但未击中）之后发生的。
此时，自2月份交火开始以来，霍尔木兹海峡几乎完全处于封闭状态。这扰乱了全球能源市场，不过美国石油公司最近报告称在战争期间获得了超过1300亿美元的利润。几乎是它们去年同期获利的三倍。
英文原文
Yesterday in Iran, the US launched new strikes on Qeshm Island in what American officials described as a small-scale defensive move.The island is right along the narrowest part of the Strait of Hormuz and the strike is the latest in a string of similar attacks the US has conducted in Iran over the past few weeks, though neither country has publicly acknowledged them.
According to one US official, the strikes are intended to stop Iranian attacks on commercial ships which had been ramping up. Last month, Iran fired on more ships in the strait than at any point in the war so far. Another US official said yesterday's strike came after Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps shot down an American drone and shot at but missed two American fighter jets flying nearby.
At this point, the Strait of Hormuz has been almost entirely closed since the fighting began in February. That has upended the global energy markets, though American oil companies recently reported more than a hundred and thirty billion dollars in profits during the war. Almost three times as much as they made during the same stretch last year.
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英文原文
>> [music]卡痛叶产品的流行与成瘾健康隐患
在过去的十年里，一种特定类型的产品在加油站、烟草店和网上接连涌现。
英文原文
>> Over the past decade, a certain kind of product has been popping up for sale in gas stations, in smoke shops, and online.这个是气泡柠檬水。我已经喝了一半了。味道其实挺不错的。
英文原文
>> This one is the sparkling lemonade. I've already drank half of it. It's actually pretty good.有时它装在色彩鲜艳的易拉罐里、小的补剂瓶里，或者是你自己溶于水的粉末。
英文原文
>> Sometimes it comes in colorful cans, small tonic bottles, or powders you dissolve in water yourself.它就是一种非常天然的物质，含有许多不同的生物碱。它确实有一种……
英文原文
>> It's just a really natural substance that has a lot of different alkaloids. It has a really其活性成分卡痛叶（kratom），是一种提取自热带树木的物质，其提倡者称它可以起到提神、作为止痛剂等各种功效。
英文原文
>> The active ingredient, kratom, a substance derived from a tropical tree whose advocates say can do things like boost your energy, act as a painkiller, all kinds of things.那么，这些能帮助你缓解焦虑吗？
英文原文
>> So, these help you with your anxiety?是的，它们确实让我平静了很多，我……
英文原文
>> Yeah, they definitely calm me down a lot and I各公司一直在健身房和社交媒体上分发样品，但这种营销往往未能承认的是，卡痛叶具有导致成瘾、肝损伤、癫痫发作以及在某些情况下致命性过量的潜在风险。
《纽约时报》采访了一些表示为了自身健康原因尝试卡痛叶、最终却严重成瘾的人。
一名30岁的女性表示：“起初，卡痛叶听起来像是一种生活捷径。”她当时在寻找抗焦虑药物的替代品，并开始服用卡痛叶胶囊。很快，她开始越吃越多，直到每天多达100粒胶囊。
另一名女性告诉《纽约时报》，她刷爆了两张信用卡来维持自己的瘾癖，但她觉得太羞耻而不敢告诉任何人。她说，引用原话：“如果我对一种养生补剂上瘾，谁会相信我呢？”
专家表示，之前曾与酒精或其他药物作斗争的人可能尤其容易对卡痛叶成瘾，而通常侧重于健康养生的营销方式给了购买者一种虚假的安全感。
一些州已经禁止了这种物质或限制向未成年人销售，联邦卫生官员也对其风险发出了警告。但是，尽管有这些警告，该药物在全美许多地区仍然合法且广泛易得。
英文原文
>> Companies have been hawking samples at gyms and on social media, but what the marketing often fails to acknowledge is the potential for kratom to lead to addiction, liver injury, seizures, and in some cases, fatal overdoses.The Times spoke with people who say they tried kratom for their own health reasons, only to become seriously addicted.
One 30-year-old woman said, "At first, kratom sounded like a life hack." She was looking for an alternative to her anxiety medication and started taking kratom capsules. Soon, she started taking more and more until she was up to 100 capsules a day.
Another woman told the Times she maxed out two credit cards to support her addiction, but she felt too ashamed to tell anyone. She said, quote, "Who's going to believe me if I'm addicted to a wellness tonic?"
Experts say people who previously struggled with alcohol or other drugs may be especially vulnerable to kratom addiction, and the marketing, often health and wellness focused, gives buyers a false sense of safety.
Some states have banned the substance or restricted sales to minors, and federal health officials have warned about its risks. But, despite those warnings, the drug remains legal and widely available in many parts of the country.
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英文原文
>> [music]男性健身新趋势：普拉提的普及
最后，不知何故，在这个选举季，男性的身体比我想大多数人预见到的更成为一个话题。但是，说到这一点，这里有一个应景的故事：越来越多的男性正在练普拉提。
这项侧重于核心力量和缓慢、受控动作的全身锻炼，长期以来一直更多被视为女性的锻炼项目。但男子体育界的大牌人物已经转向了它：汤姆·布雷迪（Tom Brady）、勒布朗·詹姆斯（LeBron James），而且不仅仅是他们。根据行业组织健康与健身协会（Health and Fitness Association）的数据，在过去5年中，美国参加普拉提课程的男性人数翻了一番，从200万增加到400万。
尽管与成套的两件式运动服紧密相关，普拉提从来都不是一项针对特定性别的运动。它的创始人约瑟夫·普拉提（Joseph Pilates）是一名德国马戏团表演者和拳击手，他在第一次世界大战期间被拘留在英国时，开始向狱友传授他的方法。
从那里，他移居到纽约，许多舞者（其中许多是女性）在一间工作室参加他的课程，随后这一运动不断传播扩散。
据健康与健身协会主席称，现在有更多男性尝试普拉提（无论是在垫子上还是在核心床器械上），这一转变与更广泛的健身趋势转变相一致。她说：“总体而言，现在健身房里的方式减少了性别界限。”并表示，引用原话：“你现在能在力量训练室看到女性，也能在普拉提课上看到男性。”
英文原文
>> And finally, somehow men's bodies became more of a theme this election season than I think most people saw coming. But, on that note, here's an apropos story. More men are doing Pilates.The full-body workout that focuses on core strength and slow, controlled movements has long been seen as more of a women's workout. But, big names in men's sports have turned to it. Tom Brady, LeBron James, and it's not just them. According to the Health and Fitness Association, an industry group, the number of men taking Pilates classes in the US has doubled in the last 5 years, from 2 million to 4 million.
Despite being closely associated with matching two pieces, Pilates was never intended as a gendered exercise. It's founder, Joseph Pilates, was a German circus performer and boxer, who, when he was being held in the UK during World War I, started teaching his methods to his fellow inmates.
From there, he moved to New York, where a lot of dancers, many of them women, took his classes at a studio, and it spread and spread.
The shift now, with more men trying out Pilates, either on a mat or on a reformer machine, is in line with a shift in exercise trends more broadly, according to the president of the Health and Fitness Association. She said, "Overall, there's now a less gendered approach [music] at the gym." Saying, quote, "You see women in the weight room now, and you see men in [music] Pilates."
以上就是今天的新闻头条。[音乐] 今天在《The Daily》节目中，《纽约时报》首席政治分析师内特·科恩（Nate Cohn）将解析选举之夜及随后的日子可能会如何展开。[音乐]
如果你还不是《纽约时报》的订阅用户，《纽约时报》刚刚免费开放了我们在选举期间的所有中期选举报道。[音乐] 你现在就可以下载《纽约时报》应用程序来获取所有内容，快去体验吧。我是特蕾西·芒福德。我们明天见。
英文原文
Those are the headlines. [music] Today on The Daily, The Times chief political analyst Nate Cohn on how election night and the days after could play out. [music]And if you are not a Times subscriber yet, The Times just made all of our midterms coverage [music] free through the election. You can download The Times app now to access all of [music] it, so get started. I'm Tracy Mumford. We'll be back tomorrow.
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