英特尔财报惊艳市场,标普500指数逼近历史新高 Amit Kukreja 2025-10-23

市场全线上扬,标普500逼近历史高点

大家好,欢迎回到《市场收盘》节目。今天我们有很多内容要谈。标普500指数(Standard & Poor's 500 Index: 标准普尔500指数,代表美国500家大型上市公司的股票指数)在收盘时正试图冲击历史新高。我们基本上回到了两周前的位置,这很令人欣喜。标普500指数目前报67194点。

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All right. Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the market close. I'm sorry I'm late. Literally before going live, the camera was being stupid. I know that's a dog ate my homework excuse, but like three, four times this week, the camera's been done. But we are back. We are live. Uh we got a lot of stuff to talk about, folks. We got the S&P 500 that's trying to get to alltime highs on the close, which is well, I mean, we are basically back to where we were from two weeks ago, which is nice to see. 67194 right here on the S&P 500.

反弹并不仅仅出现在标普500指数上。特斯拉正试图冲击448美元,而今天早上股价还在418美元。Palantir目前上涨3%。Robin Hood股价达到134.87美元,对它来说是重要的一天。标普500指数今天上涨了6%。SoFi上涨4%,Grab触及5.70美元,谷歌上涨0.5%,AMD上涨1.6%。就连亚马逊今天也突破了220美元,达到221美元。Meta回到了735美元。可以说,今天是非常不可思议的一天。SMCI表现稍差,下跌约9%。

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And you've got a rebound, not just on the S&P, but Tessy trying to go for 448. The stock was at 418 this morning. Palanteer up 3% right now. We got the Karp interview on Fox News that we'll take a look at. Robin Hood 13487. Big big day for Robin Hood. You got the S&P 500 again up 6% on the day. SoFi's up 4%. Grab got to 570. Google's up half a percent. AMD up 1.6. Even Amazon breaking 220 on the day at 221. Meta back at 735. I mean, it's been a pretty incredible day. SMCI a little bit more of an ugly day down about 9%.

就连比特币表现也不差,早上还在106美元,现在回到了110美元。所以整个市场都出现了明显的反弹。Coreweave上涨2%,Rocket Lab上涨5%,ASML当天持平,但比几天前要好。其他高品质成长股,如CrowdStrike,股价519美元,当天上涨4%。Coinbase上涨1.4%。

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Uh, and even Bitcoin not doing too bad. Bitcoin was at 106 this morning. now back at 110. So you've seen a obvious rebound across the entire market. Coreweave up 2%, Rocket Lab up 5%, AS flat on the day, but not as bad as it was a couple of days ago. Uh obviously you've got all the other names in terms of high quality growth like a crowd strike 519 that's up 4% of the day. Coinbase is up 1.4%.

市场反弹背后的多重利好因素

那么,这一切为什么会发生呢?我们有几条不同的头条新闻可以解释整个市场的反弹。我认为首要原因是卖家和空头可能已经有些筋疲力尽了。过去两周,整个市场都经历了艰难的抛售,特别是对于高动能股票,也包括像Meta、苹果、谷歌等一些普通的大型科技股。现在你开始看到一些反弹。

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So the reason is why is this happening? The reason is why is this happening? And we actually have a bunch of different headlines to talk about uh for why this is happening across the entire board. I think the number one reason is the sellers and the shorts probably got a bit exhausted. It has been a rough two weeks of selling across the board. Definitely for high driven momentum stocks also just random names like uh your average Meta, Apple, Google, right? All the big tech names that got hit and you're starting to see a little bit of rebound.

其次,特朗普说了一些看起来相对利好的话。大约一小时前,他确认了将于10月30日与习主席举行的面对面会晤。由于这次会晤得到正式确认,你也看到了更多的市场动能。他一宣布,市场就立刻表现出积极反应,可以想见市场会喜欢这个消息,因为市场乐于看到谈判进展顺利。

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Number two is Trump is saying a bunch of stuff that seems relatively bullish. So the first thing he said about an hour ago was that he confirmed the October 30th meeting in person with President Xi. October 30th meeting with President Xi. As a result of that meeting officially being confirmed, that is why you're also seeing some more momentum. Uh the market as soon as he announced that started to really like it and you would imagine the market would like that because you know the market enjoys that uh the negotiations are going well.

这是第一点。特朗普现在正在直播,说了很多事情。我们会尽量获取一些他的言论。他刚刚说的一句话是,他接到了英伟达的黄仁勋关于旧金山的电话。我稍后会获取更多关于这些言论的背景信息,但他现在确实在发表讲话。其中最重要的一点是,中美会晤定于10月30日举行,这恰好在FOMC(Federal Open Market Committee: 联邦公开市场委员会,负责制定美国货币政策)会议后一天,也早于他与世界其他官员(可能包括金正恩)会晤的前一天。所以下周的这次会晤时机非常关键,对于观察其可能带来的实际影响非常重要。

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So that was the first thing. Trump's live right now. He's saying a bunch of things. We'll try to get a bunch of those quotes. One of the quotes he just said was he got a call from Nvidia's Jensen Hang about San Francisco. I'll get some more context on those quotes in a second, but he is he is saying a bunch of things right now. One of the number one things is that the China meetings are set to go for October 30th, which is a day after the FOMC meeting and a day before uh he continues to have meetings with other officials across the world, potentially even Kim Jong-un. So that meeting is going to be very timely next week and very important in terms of seeing what that could actually do.

科技与行业动态

我认为这就是市场获得良好动能的原因,并且这种势头正在席卷整个市场。Oklo当天上涨4%。量子计算领域的股票今天上午表现相当有趣。这些公司在盘前交易中涨幅很大,但现在涨幅有所回落。D-Wave曾上涨20%,现在上涨13%。雅虎财经有报道称,美国政府并未与这些量子公司进行过对话。

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Uh, so that's why we have I think the market's getting some good momentum and that's going across the entire board. Your Oaklows that is up 4% on the day. So down 30% for the week, up 4% right here. Quantum names have had a pretty interesting morning. So again, these guys were up a lot in the pre-markets. They're not up as much. DW was up 20%, now it's up 13%. There was a report that came out by Yahoo Finance that said the United States government did not have conversations with these quantum companies.

报道出来后,这些股票开始下跌。随后,Rigetti向CNBC表示:“我们正在进行对话”,并补充说:“顺便说一句,如果美国不投资我们,那么其他国家就会,美国将被甩在后面,这不是好事。” 接着,20分钟前彭博社报道称,不,他们确实正在与多家这类公司进行切实的对话。

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Um, and so that that's when they started falling. Then Regetti gave a quote to CNBC and said, "We are having conversations and and they added, by the way, if the US doesn't invest in us, then someone else will and the US is going to be left behind, which is not a good thing." Uh, and then you had Bloomberg report 20 minutes ago. This was the quote by Regetti to CNBC. Then you had Bloomberg report that no, no, they actually are legit having conversations with a bunch of these companies.

所以,我认为没有人确切知道到底发生了什么,但市场并没有给予它们在盘前交易时那么高的溢价,也没有完全剥夺所有溢价。所以它们当天相对收绿,但不如盘前那么绿。对于许多动能股来说,今天是疯狂的一天。

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So, I don't think anyone necessarily knows exactly what is happening for sure, but the market is not giving them the massive premium they had in the pre-market, not taking away all that premium. So you have them relatively green on the day but not as green as they were in the pre-market. So just been a wild day for a lot of the uh overall momentum plays.

与此同时,货币市场基金的数据显示,资金增加了300亿美元,总额达到7.4万亿美元。这表明人们仍然希望获得无风险的回报,这也是货币市场基金规模达到如此水平的原因。

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First of all, money market funds. We have the results. The answer is officially increased. Money market funds increase by 30 billion as you can see right there to 7.4 trillion. 7.4 4 trillion is what we have on these money market funds. So I mean look it it shows that people still want a return that is not going to be uh you know risking any and as a result of that return not risking anything that is why you have these money market funds getting to these levels 7.4 trillion 30.37 billion is what you are uh seeing right there.

在其他新闻方面,亚马逊推出了专为司机设计的AI眼镜以及仓库机器人。亚马逊周三发布了一套雄心勃勃的人工智能技术,旨在彻底改变其配送业务和仓库自动化,其中包括为司机配备的智能眼镜和可能重塑公司劳动力的先进机器人系统。

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Amazon debuting their AI glasses for drivers along with warehouse robots. Amazon unveiled on Wednesday an ambitious suite of AI powered technologies designed to revolutionize both delivery operations and warehouse automation, including smart glasses for drivers and advanced robotic systems that could reshape the company's workforce.

此外,英伟达和优步宣布,他们正在合作推进自动驾驶汽车的开发。双方正在利用优步庞大的真实世界驾驶数据,在英伟达的Cosmos平台上进行训练。Cosmos平台结合使用其合成数据与真实世界数据,以提高在复杂真实世界条件下的模拟准确性、安全性和性能。

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On top of that, Nvidia and Google or Nvidia and Uber, I should say, announced that they are working together to advance autonomous vehicle development. The two are using Uber's large realorld driving data to post train on Nvidia's Cosmos platform. Cosmos is using their synthetic data in combination with real world data, improving simulation accuracy, safety, and performance in complex real world conditions.

盘后财报焦点:英特尔与福特

收盘后,我们将迎来英特尔和福特的财报。这两份财报将非常非常重要。市场对英特尔的预期并不高。华尔街预计其每股收益为1美分,营收为131.4亿美元。所以,他们并没有抱太大期望。任何高于这个数字的结果都将被视为好消息。

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Now what do we have after the bell? We have Intel and Ford. Intel and Ford. Those are going to be very, very important earnings. The street, it doesn't have the highest expectations for Intel. Uh, let me just pull up the numbers right here. Intel Street wants 1 cent per share and 13.14 billion in revenue. So, they're not expecting too much. Anything above that would be good.

英特尔大约在五个季度前取消了股息。所以,问题就在于他们这次能交出什么样的业绩。英特尔今年迄今为止已经上涨了相当可观的幅度,今天上涨了2%。所以你在财报前就看到了股价的先行反应。是的,它今年迄今上涨了87%。他们确实没有犯错的余地。但话又说回来,美国政府向他们注资了90亿美元。所以,谁知道呢?也许现在有政府撑腰,如果他们能拿出任何有意义的业绩,股价可能会被重新评级到43、45美元的水平。

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Intel again did get rid of their dividend about five quarters ago. So, question is just going to be what they can put up on these results. Intel right here is up a decent chunk year to date. It's up 2% on the day. So, you're getting a pre- action move as we get into it. And it's up, yeah, 87% year-to date. I mean, they don't really have room to mess up. But then again, the US government pumped 9 billion into them. So, I mean, who knows? Maybe this gets rerated into the 43s, 45s now that the government's backing them. If they can put up any level of meaningful results, that would get the street excited.

英特尔发布“史诗级”财报,股价飙升

好了,英特尔的财报出来了。哇哦。好的。等等。这个数据准确吗?在我说出来之前,我想确认一下。你们看到的EPS(Earnings Per Share: 每股收益,衡量公司盈利能力的重要指标)和我看到的一样吗?如果这是真的,这支股票要涨到40美元了。

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All right, Intel earnings. I think we're going to get them. Are we getting them? Let's see. Yep. Oh, wow. Okay. Hold on. Is this accurate? Before I say it, I want to make sure it's accurate. Are you guys seeing the same thing I'm seeing on EPS? If this is accurate, this stock's going to 40. I feel like it's going to 40.

我看到的数据是,他们以2000%的幅度超出了EPS预期。每股23美分,而预期是1美分。营收136亿美元,而预期是131.4亿美元。我正在确认这个数字是否属实。是的,看起来就是这个数字。我现在有三个消息来源确认了。他们似乎真的超出了2000%。

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This is the number I have. This is not a confirmed number. I want to confirm it with multiple sources, but what I'm looking at is they beat EPS by 2,000%. 23 cents versus 1 cent expected. 13.6 billion versus 13.14. Trying to confirm if they actually did con. Yeah, that looks like the number. It looks like the number. That looks I have two sources, three sources now confirming it. It looks like they beat by two,000%.

这是一次巨大的胜利。每股23美分,而华尔街的预期是1美分。这是一次巨大的胜利。

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Well, we know why Donny T invested now. Dude, that's a big beat. 23 cents a share. Are you kidding me? When the street was expecting 1 cent. That's a big beat.

更多业绩细节:英特尔第三季度毛利率为40%,预期为36%。对于一个硬件业务来说,能挤出利润并不容易,这是一个4%的超预期。他们预计第四季度营收在128亿至138亿美元之间。数据中心业务营收41.2亿美元,预期为39.7亿美元,超出预期。客户计算业务营收84亿美元,预期为81亿美元,超出预期。Foundry(晶圆代工: 指专门从事半导体晶圆制造,接受其他公司委托制造芯片的业务模式)业务营收42亿美元,预期为45亿美元,未达预期。他们在Foundry业务上未达标,但在客户计算和数据中心业务上超出了预期。股价到40美元了。

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Some more results. Uh gross margins 40% on Intel in the third quarter versus 36% expected. That's a hell of a beat by 4%. Again, Intel's a hardware business, not easy to squeak out a margin. Uh, that's a 4% beat. They see their third quarter revenue 13.65 billion. That's up against expectations. Fourth quarter revenue, they're guiding for 12.8 to 13.8. Data center revenue 4.12 versus 3.97. That's a beat. Client computing revenue 8.4 versus 8.1. That's a beat. Foundry revenue 4.2 versus 4.5. That's a miss. They missed on Foundry. They beat on client computing. They beat on data center. There. There. There it goes. 40. There you go. 40 bucks.

一位分析师提到,英特尔的CFO Dave Zinsner表示,由于数据中心更新换代的速度“快于预期”,他们的供应相当短缺。他们用手头的库存满足了需求,并表示由于供应紧张,他们在第一季度、可能第二季度甚至第三季度都会落后。

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I caught up with Intel CFO Dave Zner just moments ago and he told me that they are pretty short on supply because the data center refresh is happening quote faster than anticipated. They met demand with inventory on hand and he's saying that they're going to be behind in Q1, probably Q2, maybe even Q3 because of this supply crunch.

其他公司财报喜忧参半

福特也公布了财报,EPS超出预期25%,营收超出预期7%。每股收益45美分,预期为36美分。尽管业绩超预期,但股价下跌了4%。

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Ford, uh, I think we have a beat on Ford, folks. Ford is down 4%. Ford, yeah, beat by 25% on EPS, beat by 7% on revenue, 45 cents versus 36 cents. Regardless of what the stock is doing, we as investors care that companies are beating earnings because that can continue to say that the multiple on the S&P is not overstretched.

福特股价下跌的原因是他们下调了调整后自由现金流的预期,从35-40亿美元下调至20-30亿美元。此外,他们的一家工厂发生火灾,对2025年的调整后EBITDA(息税折旧及摊销前利润)造成了冲击。华尔街原本预计26财年的调整后EBITDA为75亿美元,而他们给出的指引是65亿美元。

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Not sure why Ford is getting hit. A little bit of reverse. Uh they see their adjusted free cash flow two to three billion instead of 3.5 to four. So I guess that's a little lower than expected. Uh they have a little bit of an adjusted IBA hit in 2025 from one of their factories that went on fire. That's probably why it's getting hit. And then Street wanted 7.5 billion of adjusted Ebida for fiscal year 26. They're coming at 6.5 billion. Again, not the worst miss, but nonetheless, that's probably explaining why Ford is getting hit right there.

Deckers的财报也超出了营收和盈利预期15%,但股价下跌了4%。Pneumont同样是双双超预期,EPS超19%,营收超5%。Digital Realty Trust的EPS更是惊人地超出了510%。

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How about Deck? Deckers is down not as aggressively. Deckers. Well, now down 4%. Top and the bottom beat by 15%. EPS is up 14% year-over-year. Pneumont that one is up after hours. Wow, another double beat. 19% EPS 5% revenue beat. Digital Realy. Wow. $510% EPS beat. Oh my goodness. This is a $60 billion company, guys. 3% beat on revenue.

从所有这些公司超预期的EPS中可以得出的一个快速结论是,它们的利润率可能正在改善,好于华尔街的预期。利润率的改善很可能归功于两个字母:A和I(人工智能)。如果这是真的,并且我们在本轮财报季的电话会议中听到大量相关评论,那么AI正在创造利润改善,这应该会扩大标普500指数的整体市盈率,或者至少解释了为什么市盈率正在被拉伸。

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The the quick takeaway real quick from all these companies that are beating on EPS is that their margins are probably getting better. Better than what the street thought, which is why they're able to beat these numbers, margins getting better is likely because of two letters, A and I. And if that is true, and we hear a lot of that commentary throughout this earning cycle on these calls, then AI is creating margin improvement, aka it should be expanding the overall multiple on the S&P or at least make sense of why the multiple on the S&P is getting extended.

谷歌与Anthropic确认达成重磅云协议

我们有消息了。Anthropic确认了与谷歌云的交易。Anthropic将扩大使用谷歌云的TPU(Tensor Processing Unit: 张量处理单元,谷歌为机器学习和人工智能专门定制的芯片)。Anthropic表示,这笔交易价值数百亿美元。

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No, no, we don't. No, we do. Anthropic, they confirmed the deal. They confirmed the deal. Anthropic confirms Google Cloud deal. Anthropic to expand use of Google Cloud TPUs. Anthropic said deal is worth tens of billions of dollars. That is what we got. Wow.

Anthropic确认了与谷歌的合作关系,价值数百亿美元。他们将扩大使用谷歌的TPU和服务。Anthropic将训练和部署其Claude模型,并计划使用多达100万个TPU,总价值达数百亿美元。总的来说,到2026年,Anthropic将能使用超过1吉瓦的计算能力。

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Anthropic confirming the Google partnership. Tens of billions of dollars is the news. They will expand the use of Google TPUs and services. Anthropic will train and serve clawed models with plans to access up to 1 million TPUs worth tens of billions of dollars. In total, Anthropic will have access to well over a gigawatt of capacity coming online in 2026.

Palantir CEO谈与Lumen的合作及AI竞赛

Palantir和Lumen刚刚宣布了一项扩大的、为期多年、价值数百万美元的合作,旨在部署Palantir的AI平台,以加速和增强Lumen的数字网络基础设施。

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Palanteer and Lumen just announced an expanded multi-year multi-million dollar partnership to deploy Palunteer's AI to fasttrack and enhance Lumen's digital networking infrastructure.

Alex Karp: 我们不评论交易的具体细节。我想说的是,这对我们来说是一项具有里程碑意义的交易。我们非常高兴能与你们合作。现在的情况是,你有一个业务,如果它能在一两年内而不是五年内完成转型,它就可能成为这个国家几乎所有AI用例的支柱。

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>> You know, we don't really comment on the specifics of deals. What I would say is um it is a formative deal for us. We are very very happy to be partnered with you. She I mean she's what basically is happening is you have a business that if it can be transformed in in a couple in a in a year as opposed to 5 years could be the backbone of essentially every AI use case in the country.

Alex Karp: 这是一个非常大的交易,我们对此非常认真。

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>> It's a very large deal and we're very serious about it.

Alex Karp: 我们正处于一场军备竞赛中。这都是学术层面的讨论,超级学术。情况就是,要么我们拥有人工智能并制定规则,要么我们的对手拥有它并由他们来制定规则。所以这就是为什么这些基础设施项目如此重要的原因。

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>> we're in a we're in a we're in an arms race here. This is that's all academic super academic. It's like we're going to either have AI and and determine the rules or our adversaries will have it and they'll determine the rules. And it and so this is why these infrastructure things are crazy important because in order to make it work, what do you need?

Alex Karp: 如果你开始对此设置障碍,事实上,将会发生的是我们的对手会建立它,而我们将从他们那里购买一切,包括我们如何管理国家的理念。所以,我个人的看法,以及我们在Palantir所代表的,我们不强加于任何人,那就是我们在奔跑。我们拼命地奔跑,我们将支持任何人,特别是那些在前线能够激活这种基础设施的人,以及我们在国防部的客户,尤其是帮助美国战士成为世界上最致命的战斗力量。

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>> And if you start putting impediments on this, de facto, what's going to happen is our adversaries will build it and we will be buying everything from them, including our ideas of how to run our country. And so like my personal version, Palanteer, what we represent at Palanteer, what we do not impose on anyone else is we're running. We're running like hell and we're going to support anybody, especially people on the front line who can like galvanize this infrastructure and then our clients in the DoD especially and help make the American war fighter the most lethal in the world.

甲骨文为数据中心融资创纪录

甲骨文即将完成一笔创纪录的380亿美元债务出售,用于数据中心建设。这可能是导致比特币矿商股价上涨的原因。这笔创纪录的380亿美元融资,对Ian、Nebius、Cipher、CoreWeave等公司来说是极大利好,因为它表明,如果甲骨文能为其数据中心获得400亿美元的债务融资,那么所有其他规模不如甲骨文的小公司,很可能也会在数据中心领域获得投资。

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Record $ 38 billion debt sale near for Oracle data centers. Oh, I think that might be it. I think that might be it. That's why all the that that's actually why the Bitcoin miners are running. That's actually why uh record 38 billion. Wow. Yeah. Two minutes ago. 38 billion debt sale near. Wow. Yeah, that's super bullish. Ian, Nebia, Cipher, Cororee, because that signals that if Oracle can get 40 billion of debt financed for guess what data centers, then all these other smaller companies that are not as big as Oracle are probably going to catch a bid for data centers.

这笔380亿美元的融资方案将用于资助德克萨斯州的一个数据中心,另外147亿美元将用于威斯康星州的另一个数据中心。Vantage Data Centers正在开发这两个数据中心,它们都将被甲骨文和OpenAI使用。富国银行、高盛、三井住友银行、法国巴黎银行和法国兴业银行都在首轮承销商筛选后分配了部分融资额度。

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Oracle. All right. 123.25 $.25 billion package will go towards funding a data center in Texas and another 14.7 billion in Wisconsin. Wow, guys. This is legit. We got a legit Oracle corporate debt sale of freaking $40 billion. Vantage Data Centers is developing both data centers which are used by Oracle and OpenAI. Wells Fargo, Goldman, Sumitumo, Mit Mitsui Banking Corp. BNP parab by the France thing and then society general have all allocated portions of the financing package after a first round of selecting underwriters.

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