计算机简史:从工业革命到人工智能的演进 Big Think 2026-01-30

生产系统化:计算与工业革命的交汇

计算之所以成为工业革命的一部分,核心在于生产的系统化。工业革命的本质是以最低的成本、为最大的市场生产质量统一的产品。1776年是一个关键的节点,这一年不仅是美国独立,也是亚当·斯密出版《国富论》的一年。他在书中描述的工业流程——分工(Division of Labor:将生产过程分解为专门任务以提高效率的模式)、任务专业化和工作系统化,不仅影响了工业界,也深刻启发了科学界。

天文学是第一个面临大规模系统化挑战的科学领域。为了航海和探索宇宙,科学家需要建立观测人员队伍来绘制星图。然而,每晚记录的数据受地球朝向、轨道位置等因素影响,产生了一堆杂乱的数据,必须通过大量的算术运算将其还原为空间中的绝对坐标。这种重复性极强、工作量巨大的任务,迫使人们思考如何以最低成本完成计算。计算和编程的高科技本质,实际上就是将复杂事物转化为固定步骤的系统化过程。

Original English Source

I'm David Alan Grier. I am currently a writer and author on issues of technology and industry and things of that sort. In the past, I have been a computer programmer, a professor, a software engineer, president of the IEEE Computer Society. I am the author of the book "When Computers Were Human" and also the book "Crowdsourcing for Dummies," among others.

Chapter 1 - Computers and the Industrial Revolution Why is computing part of the Industrial Revolution? The Industrial Revolution is about systematizing production. And it's about producing goods of uniform quality, if not uniform design, at the lowest possible cost for the largest possible market. If you want a date that's easy to remember and just nails things down, you go with 1776. And that's useful for my purpose as a writer, because that's also the year that Adam Smith's "The Wealth of Nations" is published. And the start of that book is about the description of industrial processes, how we came to them, and how we used them to start building uniform products that would have large markets. That would increase the wealth of nations. And those first chapters deal with the division of labor, the specializations of tasks, and the systematization of work.

That book was highly influential, not only in the industrial group, particularly in London, in the cotton producing and in the pottery producing fields in northern London, but also amongst the scientific crowd. Because they also had things that were large problems that needed systematic approaches. Astronomy was the first. We had used astronomy for navigation, but there was a question of what was out there and how did things behave that was being addressed by people purchasing telescopes, or financing telescopes, and then setting up a staff to collect observations. And they would night after night go to the observatory and map the heavens. And in the process of mapping the heavens, it doesn't take long to realize the data problem they generated. Suppose it takes a minute or two a night to get one star located. Okay, that means you can get a couple hundred, maybe even a low thousands, of stars a night. But the figures that you record depend upon the hour of the day which direction the Earth is facing, or your telescope is facing. And the time of year, where the Earth is in its orbit, you'll get different measurements of the stars at different times of year. That means you create a massive pile of data that needs to be reduced to absolute coordinates, to a location somewhere fixed in space. That requires a lot of work and a lot of arithmetic. And it required these observatories which could do the recording with a staff of two or three astronomers to have a large group of people to help them reduce these data points to something that was absolute so they could start fitting them into their map to the heavens. That was a repetitive job. There was a lot of it. And the issue that they all faced was how can you do it for the least amount of money.

Part of what we think of as high tech in computing and programming is also the task of systemization, of regularization, of taking a complex thing that could be done many different ways and putting it in a form that can be marched through in a fixed series of steps.

标准化的力量:从机械误差到行业规范

在建立这种系统化逻辑后,具体的计算博弈开始显现。18世纪末,法国天文学家为了预测哈雷彗星的回归,首次大规模应用了分工原则。他们将计算任务拆解,由不同的人分别追踪地球、木星和彗星的位置。在这个过程中,人们意识到计算不仅仅是算法的较量,更是如何发现错误。查尔斯·巴贝奇提出了著名的巴贝奇法则(Babbage's Rule:指两人用相同方法进行相同计算时,往往会犯同样的错误),因此必须采用不同的方法来暴露误差。

这种对准确性的追求直接推动了全球贸易和工业化。为了制作精确的航海历,伦敦和巴黎的机构完善了分工与纠错系统,使船只在离开陆地视线后仍能通过经纬度定位。到了20世纪初,赫伯特·胡佛等工程师进一步推动了标准化(Standardization:建立统一规格以提高生产规模和降低成本的过程)。从螺栓螺母到教育体系(如卡内基学分),标准化让非专业人士也能参与复杂流程。计算也因此受益:通过标准化的算法表达和程序语言,计算成本大幅降低,应用范围迅速扩大。

Original English Source

At base, no one really needs to know the return date of Halley's comet. There are certain few scientists for whom it helps explain the universe. But it's mostly just a reminder that this object has been seen every 75 or so years throughout history and has been recorded as such. But at the end of the 18th century, a group of French astronomers, knowing that it was coming, asked could we figure it out? It was a test of the science that had been developing before them, of the theories of people like Copernicus and Galileo. And the question was could they get a date? Could they get the date that was closest to the sun? And could they do it mathematically? And that's actually a tough problem at some level even now, although we have all the programs to do it, because it involves the location of several big oblogics and needing to move them through space while you're tracking the comet around the solar system. And what they did was divide the labor. And that becomes a key theme in computing, a theme that was worked out by human beings and relatively modest mechanical devices before we started putting electronics to it and rushing off into programs and artificial intelligence and all the rest. We worked out the problems of computing because it was divided labor.

...To produce those books accurately, you needed a system, you needed a system that allowed you both to do the calculations, and then undo them in a way that was different, because one of the very early pioneers of calculation, Charles Babbage, discovered what he called Babbage's Rule, which is two calculations done the same way by different people will tend to make the same errors. There seems to be, in the process of hand calculation, mistakes that trip up everybody. Not all the time, but there's a tendency that if one person makes the mistake, the next person will make it. So you need to approach the problem in a different way, and in particular, in a different way that exposes errors.

...Chapter two, the power of standardization. Standards are a key part of the industrial world. Building things to standard models, standard parts, goes almost all the way back to 1776. ...In terms of the modern sense of standardization, I really pin it on World War I more than anything, and if you wanted one individual who was more responsible for it than any other, who was a major leader, it's Herbert Hoover. Hoover was an engineer. ...He argued that there were a large number of things that if they were produced to standard forms, would increase the scale of our industrial processes, would allow us to make more products for more people at lower costs, and expand our ability to do things. ...And as the computing age built, they more and more started looking at standard ways of doing calculation, standard ways of expressing algorithms, standard languages for expressing programs. And all of these became a key part of computing that would have been a lot more expensive and a lot slower if it hadn't had the standards there.

数据化生存:捕捉人类经验与社会边界

随着电报的出现,计算开始与人类经验深度绑定。1850年代,华盛顿与巴尔的摩之间的第一条电报线路不仅传递了信息,还揭示了城市间的时差,促成了统一时间的建立,从而减少了铁路事故。这种对自然经验的捕捉,在19世纪末转向了对人类活动的捕捉。1890年的美国人口普查是一个转折点。面对海量数据,赫尔曼·霍尔瑞斯发明了打孔卡统计机(Hollerith Tabulating Machine:IBM 的前身,使用打孔卡进行自动化数据处理的设备)。

这台机器不仅极大地提高了普查速度,还改变了美国人的自我认知。历史学家通过普查数据得出结论:“美国已不再有边疆,而是一个定居国家。”这种对数据的痴迷甚至带有一种宗教色彩:普查局的一位副局长曾感叹,他能从打孔卡中看到活生生的人,而机器处理卡片时的铃声仿佛是灵魂接受审判的召唤。当我们开始通过大规模数据处理来审视生活时,我们不仅看到了以前看不见的东西,还产生了一种由数据驱动的全新想象力。

Original English Source

Chapter 3, Computing the Human Experience Right now, where we're sitting in Washington is the old patent office. And back in the 1850s, that was the place the first telegraph was connected in the United States. ...The second message was, "What time is it there?" Because at that point, every city had a local time that was measured by when the sun was directly overhead at noon. ...Getting a unified time, which was in place by the late 19th century, helped eliminate a large number of train wrecks and delayed trains and other things that disrupted production.

...The census was done every ten years... by the 1870 census, that takes most of a decade to complete. The 1880 census is never really finished. ...And as 1890 began to approach, the head of the census said, "We've got to do something. We've got to systematize it. We have to industrialize it. We have to reduce the cost." And so he put out a request for someone who could build machines that could count people. And the process that came out that won the contract formed a company that was known then as the Hollerith Tabulating Company, becomes something we all know a little better, IBM. ...It sped the process so greatly that by 1893, the preliminary census was completed. ...There is an assistant director of the census who wrote this stunning document about how he could hold up a card and he could see the person in the card. ...He felt that when he was putting it through the tabulator, he was working out the future of that person. And the bell which indicated that the card had been processed was the bell calling that soul to judgment of heaven or hell. It's sweet and it's endearing, and it also shows how as we start approaching our life through data, through the large processing of data, we start seeing ourselves in new ways.

架构重构:冯·诺依曼与现代计算机的诞生

二战期间,战争对计算的需求(尤其是防空火控)催生了现代计算机。防空射击就像“猎鸭”,需要根据目标的速度和高度进行复杂的数学预测。宾夕法尼亚大学的 ENIAC(Electronic Numerical Integrator and Calculator:世界上第一台通用电子计算机)正是在这种背景下诞生的。数学家约翰·冯·诺依曼在访问 ENIAC 后,抽象出了现代计算机的三大核心要素:存储器、处理单元和程序解码器。这种冯·诺依曼架构(Von Neumann Architecture:指令和数据共同存储的计算机设计框架)至今仍是所有计算机的基础。

随后,ARPANET 的研究为互联网奠定了基础。最初的目标是建立一个计算机科学共同体,但在这个过程中,人类互动的需求催生了电子邮件和信息库。搜索(Searching:在海量记录中高效定位特定信息的过程)成为了一个核心问题。从60年代斯坦福学生的早期计算机相亲实验,到70年代个人电脑(PC)的兴起,计算机逐渐从大型工业工具转变为个人表达的媒介。我们开始调整自己的思维和习惯,以适应这些算法系统,例如根据手机导航的建议来选择通勤路线。

Original English Source

Chapter 4 - How Computers Change Us... In the 1940s, there was again a lot of computation that was needed for the war, in particular bombing, hitting things, and specifically shooting down aircraft. ...This machine, which would get the name E-NIAC, Electronic Numerical Integrator and Calculator, was a very direct precursor of the modern computer. ...Von Neumann goes to visit the ENIAC... and it dawned on him that the machine that they were really trying to build... had three elements. It had a place where you could store numbers, a scratch pad, if you will, memory that we now know it. It would have a processing unit. ...And that there was a third element in it, and that was a program decoder. These three elements in multiple forms are part of every single computer we have today.

...The key piece of research that laid the foundation for the Internet was the work on ARPANET. ...The first was that there was always going to be a human-to-human element. Email was not the first application. It was probably the third. ...The second part that they grasped and articulated was that it was not only person-to-person, but that there would be repositories... that concept of searching is crucial. ...The PC was that very much in the 70s. People saw this as a personal device... But in working with systems, the fundamental rule is we adjust ourselves. We adjust our thoughts. We adjust the way we work. ...There's an important strain of AI that is building large databases and searching through them. And the search that does it most effectively for that kind of work is called A* search, and that's what we use on our phones to find the fastest way home.

劳动博弈:数据所有权与人工智能的未来

计算机替代人类的过程充满了复杂的博弈。大萧条时期的数学表项目(Math Tables Project:由 450 名失业文员组成的、当时世界上最强大的“人类计算机”组织)是人类作为机器零件的极致体现。这些“人类计算机”通过极其严苛的分工和重复计算来确保零误差。这种用廉价、可预测的劳动力替代昂贵、不可控劳动力的逻辑,贯穿了整个计算史。

1950年代,自动化机床的出现引发了关于数据所有权(Data Ownership:关于谁拥有由人类技能或行为转化而来的数据的法律与伦理争议)的第一次重大交锋。工厂主认为工人的技能是在工厂里习得的,因此可以被复制到机器中;而工人则认为技能属于个人身份。今天,人工智能面临着同样的争议:谁拥有被算法捕捉的人类行为和思想数据?虽然 AI 在翻译等领域已成为实用工具,但其可靠性仍存疑。我们正处于一个不断调整自身以适应机器的过程,这种调整不仅是为了提高效率,更是为了在社会群体中获得新的地位和功能。

Original English Source

Chapter 5 When Machines Replace Humans... This room in New York City was the main office of a group known as the Math Tables Project. It was the largest collection of human computers, to my knowledge, that has ever been assembled on the face of the earth. ...The substitution of machinery for labor is a huge part of the story of computation. And there are two principal motivations for it. One, reducing activities that we thought required human intelligence to mechanization... The second part is systemization. ...In all of these, you're in effect trying to replace expensive labor with cheaper labor.

...One of the new devices that's coming into manufacturing are automated machine tools... and during the '50s, as they start seeing these tools come up, they protest. And it leads to one of the key fights that we are having today about who owns data. ...The argument that the large manufacturers had is we build the factories... Therefore, your skills are something that we can copy and we can transfer to an automated machine tool. ...That same controversy continues with the collection of data for artificial intelligence. ...The question becomes, who owns the activities that are being captured by data? ...My feeling is with artificial intelligence now... they fail enough that they are not reliable tools for me. ...If I'm going to pay for a mistake, it's going to be mine.

关键字: history-of-computing industrial-revolution division-of-labor standardization data-ownership