Bellingcat 创始人 Elliot Higgins 专访:如何利用开源调查挖掘真相 Norges Bank Investment Management 2026-07-15

什么是开源调查

Nicolai Tangen: 大家好,我是挪威主权财富基金的首席执行官 Nicolai Tangen。今天我们录制一期非常特别的节目。我们在将近 200 名现场观众面前进行录制,他们都是我在主权财富基金的同事。今天与我们在一起的还有非常令人敬佩的 Elliot Higgins,他是全球领先的开源调查集体 Bellingcat 的创始人。Elliot 不是间谍,也不是受过训练的记者。他实际上是一个大学辍学者,在莱斯特的厨房餐桌旁自学了如何调查战争罪行。他揭露了俄罗斯的刺客,曝光了在叙利亚使用的化学武器,帮助确认了毒害 Navalny 的凶手。我非常期待这次对话,Elliot,热烈欢迎你。

Original English

Nicolai Tangen: Hi everyone, I'm Nicolai Tangen, the CEO of the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund and today we have a very special episode. We are recording in front of a live audience of nearly 200 people. These are my colleagues at the Sovereign Wealth Fund and we are joined by the very impressive Elliot Higgins, the founder of Bellingcat, the world's leading open-source investigative collective. Now Elliot is not a spy, not a trained journalist. It's actually a college dropout who taught himself to investigate war crimes from his kitchen table in Leicester. He's unmasked Russian assassins, exposed chemical weapons used in Syria, helped identify Navalny's poisoner, and I've been really looking forward to this Elliot. Warm welcome.

Elliot Higgins: 感谢邀请我参加节目。

Original English

Elliot Higgins: Thanks for having me on.

Nicolai Tangen: 那么,首先请问什么是 Bellingcat?

Original English

Nicolai Tangen: So, just to start, what is Bellingcat?

Elliot Higgins: 好的,Bellingcat 所做的事情被称为开源调查(open source investigation)。也就是利用公开可得的材料来调查一系列不同的主题。在过去的 15 年里,公开可得的材料呈现了极其巨大的爆发式增长。这包括社交媒体帖子、通过谷歌地图等其他服务获取的卫星图像,以及各种各样公开的数据,例如船舶航行流量数据或航空飞行数据。我们获取所有这些数据,然后对不同的事件展开调查。这包括叙利亚的化学武器袭击、马来西亚航空 MH17 航班的击落事件,以及最近与美国对伊朗的轰炸、美国移民与海关执法局(ICE)和国土安全部(DHS)在美国境内发动的突袭等相关事件。

Original English

Elliot Higgins: So, um, Bellingcat does something called open source investigation. So, that's using publicly available material to investigate a range of different topics. And really over the last 15 years, what is publicly available material has just mushroomed to just a huge extent. It's stuff like social media posts, satellite imagery available through things like Google Maps or other services. All kinds of things like marine traffic data or airflight data that's also publicly available. So we take all that data and then we investigate different things and that's included chemical weapons attacks in Syria, the downing of Malaysian airlines flight MH17, more recently a lot to do with America's bombing of Iran, ICE and DHS raids in the US as well.

社区建设与调查原则

Nicolai Tangen: 那么你们是如何决定把重点放在什么地方的呢?

Original English

Nicolai Tangen: So how do you decide what to focus in on?

Elliot Higgins: 嗯,在早期,整个开源调查领域主要是由互联网上的一群偏执的怪才们主导的,他们只做自己感兴趣的事情。最初的大事件是叙利亚的阿拉伯之春,然后是 MH17 的击落,接着是俄罗斯入侵乌克兰。所以当时这真的只是由一群志愿者在做他们觉得有趣的事情。现在我们有了专门的团队,从事财务调查,以及我们所谓的在线意识形态(online ideologies)研究。这实际上是非常多样的。但在目前,我们当然正在关注伊朗发生的事情,但我们也关注刚果民主共和国(DRC)、苏丹以及其他发生持续冲突的地方。有时候,一项调查是一个长达数月的过程。有时候,则是对不同背景下地面上正在发生的事件做出非常快速的反应。

Original English

Elliot Higgins: Well, early on it's I mean the whole field of open source investigation was very much led by kind of obsessive nerds on the internet just doing what was interesting to them. And really the big events were initially the Arab Spring in Syria, then the shooting down of MH17, then Russia's invasion of Ukraine. And so really that's kind of was just a bunch of volunteers doing things that were interesting to them. Now we have teams who work on financial investigations what we call online ideologies which is quite varied. But it's like at the moment we're looking at of course what's happening in Iran but we're also looking at the DRC and Sudan and other places where there's ongoing conflicts. Sometimes an investigation is a really, you know, multimon month process. Sometimes it's reacting really quickly to events that are happening on the ground in different contexts.

Nicolai Tangen: 现在你住在莱斯特,在荷兰有一个机构,但你拥有一个庞大的网络。这到底是怎么运作的?

Original English

Nicolai Tangen: Now you live here in Leicester. You got an organization in Holland, but you have a big network. Just how does it work?

Elliot Higgins: 好的,我们有核心的 Bellingcat 组织,目前大约有 35 名员工,主要是研究员和培训师。然后我们有一个由我们培训和指导的志愿者社区。这大约有 200 人。另外还有一个 Discord 服务器,那里聚集了大量的人。它是我们的社区服务器,上面大约有 4.3 万人。非常棒的一点是,他们都深深认同 Bellingcat 的价值观,也就是在对某件事形成观点之前,必须要以研究为先。这在线上空间是非常罕见的。此外,他们还会发现一些我们没有在关注的事情,然后这也会成为我们工作流程的一部分。

Original English

Elliot Higgins: So um we have the central Bellingcat organization which has about 35 staff members mostly researchers and trainers. We then have a community of volunteers who we train and we can direct. That's about 200 people. There's also a Discord server where we have lots of people. It's kind of our community server that has about 43,000 people on it. And they what's great about that is they kind of really have the values of Bellingcat that it's really really about the research first before they form an opinion about something. And that's something that's quite quite rare in online spaces, but also they find stuff that we're not looking at and then that becomes kind of part of our process as well.

Nicolai Tangen: 那么这些价值观是什么?什么能让我成为你们的记者、助手或调查员?

Original English

Nicolai Tangen: So what are the values? What would make me become one of your kind of what should we say reporters or helpers or investigators?

Elliot Higgins: 那就是你永远不要预判一个情况。仅仅因为你觉得某件事应该是真相,并不意味着它实际上就是真相。因此,我认为在面对充满争议的问题时这非常重要,因为通常会有两派人在互联网上互相攻击。我们对这种争吵不感兴趣。我们希望先看证据,并根据这些证据得出结论。但同时,这也关乎包容性。这不仅仅是关于我们在 Bellingcat 所做的事,而是把这些技能教给其他人,让他们能够开展自己的调查并建立自己的社区。因此,秉持这些价值观来建立社区,是我们在 Bellingcat 所做工作的核心部分。

Original English

Elliot Higgins: It's you never prejudge a situation. Just because you feel something should be the truth doesn't mean it actually is the truth. So um I think that's very important over contentious issues as well where there tends to be two sides who just want to pick fights with each other on the internet. We're not interested in that. We want to look at the evidence first and draw our conclusions based off that evidence. But also it's about inclusion as well. It's saying it's not just about what we do at Bellingcat, but teaching other people these skills so they can do their own investigations and form their own communities. So, community building with those values is something that's really a core part of what we do at Bellingcat.

从辩论走向战场:叙利亚与MH17

Nicolai Tangen: 这里的调查方法有太多值得我们学习的地方了。那么,让我们从头开始说起。2012 年,你坐在厨房餐桌旁,看着关于叙利亚战争的 YouTube 视频。你当时在看些什么?你为什么在看 YouTube 视频?

Original English

Nicolai Tangen: Now, we have just so much to learn from the methodology here. So, let's just start with the beginning. 2012, you're sitting at your kitchen table and you're looking at YouTube clips from the Syrian war. What did you see? Why are you looking at YouTube clips?

Elliot Higgins: 这一直是关键所在。我多希望我能说我有某种高尚的意图,想成为一个伟大的人权斗士或记者。不,其实当时我只是在互联网上和人争论,我想要赢得那些辩论。当时有很多来自利比亚和叙利亚等地的视频。而在那些网络社区里,这些视频只是被当成互相攻击的棍棒。人们并没有去核实它们。他们只是说:“哦,这证明了我是对的,你是错的。”但我只想知道在这些地方到底发生了什么。因此我意识到,你可以利用卫星图像来找出这些视频是在哪里拍摄的。我们现在称之为地理定位(geolocation)。这现在是一项核心技能。但在当时,那只是我用来在网上赢下辩论的手段。

Original English

Elliot Higgins: This is the thing. I wish I could say I had this noble intention to become a great human rights or journalist or No, I was arguing with people on the internet and I wanted to win the arguments. And there were all these videos coming from places like Libya and Syria. And really in those kind of online communities, they were just being used as sticks to beat each over the head with. They weren't facteing them. They were just saying, "Oh, this proves that I'm right and you're wrong." But I just wanted to know what was going on in these places. So I realized you could use satellite imagery to figure out where stuff was filmed. And we call this geolocation. It's a core skill now. But at that point it was just me winning arguments on the internet.

Nicolai Tangen: 但你看到了什么?

Original English

Nicolai Tangen: But what did you see?

Elliot Higgins: 我看到了叙利亚的现场画面。我不懂任何阿拉伯语,所以我主要看视频的内容。其中很多显示了未爆炸的弹药,甚至还有化学武器袭击的后果。我系统地追踪了所有从叙利亚传出的视频,因为他们基本上把 YouTube 当作主要的发布平台。这些频道通常是由媒体中心或武装团体运营的。所以你实际上可以把所有这些频道编成一个目录,每天去检查它们。当时没有其他人意识到可以这么做。因此,我每天都会浏览来自叙利亚的数百个视频,寻找新的或不寻常的东西,尤其是专注于识别武器。

Original English

Elliot Higgins: So pictures in Syria. I I didn't speak any Arabic, so I was really looking at the content of the videos and a lot of it showed unexploded munitions. Um eventually the aftermath of chemical weapon attacks and I systematically tracked all the videos coming out of Syria because they they basically use YouTube as their main distribution platform. Um and those channels are usually run by like media centers or arms groups. So you could actually have a catalog of all these channels and check them every single day. And no one else had figured out you could do that. So every day I would just go through hundreds of videos from Syria looking for stuff that was new or unusual. Uh really focusing on IDing weapons in particular.

Nicolai Tangen: 然后你创立了 Bellingcat,接着马来西亚航空公司的客机被击落了。那个案子是怎么发展的?

Original English

Nicolai Tangen: Then you started Bellingcat and then the Malaysian airline was shut down. Just how did that case develop?

Elliot Higgins: 当时我是在一个外观非常简陋的 Blogspot 博客网站上写文章,我觉得我需要一个更专业的网站和一个更好的名字。于是我在 2014 年 7 月推出了 Bellingcat。就在三天后,MH17 被击落了。当时在社交媒体上出现了一场真正的群众运动,人们到处挖掘信息试图弄清楚发生了什么,而 Bellingcat 在某种程度上成为了很多此类活动的中心点。我发表文章,然后慢慢建立起一个由志愿者研究员组成的小团队,他们每天都在挖掘关于 MH17 的每一碎片信息并进行搜索。这促使我们找到了任何地方都没有人发现的所有关键证据,比如导弹发射器的来源、它是从哪里发射的,以及其他诸如此类的细节。在我的书里详细记录了这个故事,你可以看到他们是如何一步步构建起这个证据链的。

Original English

Elliot Higgins: So um I was blogging um on a really awful looking blogspot website and I thought I need a more professional website and a better name. So I launched Bellingcat in July 2014 and 3 days later MH17 was shot down. So you had this kind of real mass movement on social media of people digging through stuff trying to figure things out and Bellingcat kind of became the kind of center point of a lot of that. So I was publishing articles and then slowly building up a small team of kind of volunteer researchers who every day were digging through every bit of information about MH17 and searching for stuff and that led us to finding all kinds of stuff that no one else anywhere had found like the origin of the missile launcher where it had launched from and other details like that.

面对俄罗斯的黑客攻击与间谍活动

Nicolai Tangen: 俄罗斯国防部当时对你们可不太高兴。

Original English

Nicolai Tangen: Now the Russian Ministry of Defense weren't particularly pleased with you.

Elliot Higgins: 是的。我们遭遇了来自俄罗斯不断升级的针对性行动。这实际上始于 2015 年,像“今日俄罗斯”(RT)和“卫星通讯社”(Sputnik News)等媒体开始发表针对我们的批评文章。接着,他们试图黑入我们的电子邮件和网站。最近,有六名保加利亚人因暗中监视我的一位同事长达两年而被捕入狱,这被指与俄罗斯联邦安全局(FSB)有关。因此,多年来,他们应对我们工作的方式确实一直在升级。

Original English

Elliot Higgins: Yeah. So, we've had kind of an escalating campaign against us coming from Russia. Really started in 2015 with places like Russia Today and Sputnik News writing critical articles of us. Um, that led to them trying to hack our emails, our website. Uh, most recently there's been six Bulgarians who were jailed because they were spying on one of my colleagues for 2 years and that was linked to the Russian FSB. So, there's really been an escalation over the years of how they've responded to our work.

Nicolai Tangen: 后来英国又发生了一些中毒事件。那是什么情况?

Original English

Nicolai Tangen: Now we continued poisoning in the UK. What was that?

Elliot Higgins: 是的。当斯克里帕尔(Skripal)毒杀案发生时,我们起初在最开始的阶段并不能做太多工作。但当投毒者的身份被公布后,有一家俄罗斯新闻网站获取了该航班的旅客名单,他们的护照号码竟然只相差几个数字,这非常可疑。我们的一位前同事 Christo Grozev 非常擅长利用俄罗斯所谓的灰色数据市场。在俄罗斯,如果你知道该找谁,基本上所有的政府数据都是明码标价出售的。

Original English

Elliot Higgins: Yeah. So um when the Skripal poisoning happened, we we couldn't really do much kind of in the initial moment, but when the identities of the poisoners was were released, they there was a Russian news site that got the flight manifest of the flight and their passport numbers were just a few digits apart, which is very suspicious. So, one of my former colleagues, Christo Grozev, he he's very good at using the kind of um what you call the kind of gray market of data in Russia. In Russia, basically all government data is for sale if you know the right people to speak to.

Elliot Higgins: 于是,我们拿到了他们的护照登记信息。

Original English

Elliot Higgins: So, we got their passport registration.

揭秘索尔兹伯里毒杀案与纳瓦尔尼毒杀案

Nicolai Tangen: 这种数据交易只在俄罗斯发生,还是到处都有?

Original English

Nicolai Tangen: Is that only in Russia or is that everywhere?

Elliot Higgins: 根据我们的经验,这主要发生在俄罗斯。可能其他地方也有,但俄罗斯在这方面尤为严重,因为俗话说“蛇头先烂”,俄罗斯是人人腐败。因此,我们购买了护照的更换申请表等材料,发现这些人的护照表格上盖着俄罗斯国防部的电话号码。我们还利用房屋登记和车辆登记的政府数据库,逐步拆解了他们的身份。最终,这使我们找到了这些嫌疑人的真实身份。

Original English

Elliot Higgins: It's mainly in Russia in our experience. There might be other places, but Russia is particularly bad for that cuz you know that snake rots from the head. You know, it it's everyone's corrupt. So, we were buying things like the restoration forms of passports and discovering they had the Russian MOD's phone number stamped on these guys passport forms and using government databases of house registrations and car registrations to kind of unpick their identity. And eventually that allowed us to find the real identity of these suspects.

Nicolai Tangen: 那之后发生了什么?

Original English

Nicolai Tangen: And so what happened?

Elliot Higgins: 好的,部分情况是,我们是第一批揭露真相的人。当时这两个人在“今日俄罗斯”电视节目上坚称自己只是去索尔兹伯里大教堂旅游的游客,还在电视上对那个 123 米高的尖顶津津乐道。而我们几乎同时拿出了数据,证明他们实际上是俄罗斯间谍。我们当即予以发表,这产生了巨大的社会反响。第二天,几乎所有英国报纸的头版都刊登了我们的工作成果。

这也直接指引我们走向了 Alexey Navalny 的中毒案。因为我们发现了生产这些化学武器的化学武器科学家网络,以及他们工作的地方。我们得以从俄罗斯的线人那里购买他们的电话记录,并看到他们在即将对 Navalny 实施毒害之前,正与 FSB 特工通电话。所以我们也可以追踪这些 FSB 特工,因为电话记录不仅能显示你呼叫了谁,还能显示你连接的每一个手机信号塔。这些信号塔可以被绘制在地图上,你实际上可以 minute by minute(一分一秒地)追踪他们如何穿梭于欧洲和俄罗斯。基于俄罗斯这种极其令人难以置信的腐败,这就是我们利用他们的数据所做的事情。

Original English

Elliot Higgins: So um well part of it is we were the first people to show that these two guys who had just been on Russia today saying they were tourists visiting Salisbury Cathedral and you know talking about the 123 m spire as they were on TV we were getting with data showing that they were Russian spies and we were able to publish straight away and that had a huge impact. We had like nearly every UK newspaper had our work on their front page the following day. Um, and that really kind of led us then to the poisoning of Alexey Navalny as well because we discovered the network of chemical weapons scientists who are producing these chemical weapons where they worked and we're able to buy their phone records from people in Russia and see them phoning up FSB agents just before they're going to poison him. So, we could track the FSB agents as well because the phone records aren't just who you've called, it's every single cell phone tower you connect to, which can then be mapped out. you can actually follow people as they're moving around Europe and Russia, you know, minute by minute. And that's what we did with their data because Russia is so hideously corrupt in that way.

与纳瓦尔尼的“死亡来电”

Nicolai Tangen: 然后 Navalny 亲自打电话给了他们?

Original English

Nicolai Tangen: And then he called them up.

Elliot Higgins: 是的,他给他们打了电话。当时有一位电影制作人跟我们在一起,记录我们所做的趣事。我们当时想,既然我们拿到了他们的电话号码,给这些人打个电话不是很有趣吗?[笑声] 我们本来以为电话在 10 分钟内就会结束,他们要么挂断,要么对我们破口大骂。前三四个电话确实是这样。但由于是 Navalny 亲自给他们打电话,我们伪装了 FSB 的主叫号码给其中一个人打了过去。Navalny 假装是负责调查暗杀失败原因的 FSB 高级官员。这个过程非常值得去找出视频来观看完整内容,它就在我们制作的纪录片里,而完整版的视频长达一小时。

他成功让那个特工给他一步步详细解释了下毒的全部经过。他们潜入了 Navalny 的酒店房间,把毒药涂在他内裤的内侧接缝上。当他穿上内裤并前往机场时,毒性发作,险些要了他的命。那个特工极其详尽地向我们描述了,当 Navalny 获救并受伤送医后,他们是如何拿回他的衣服,并非常仔细地清洗他的内裤,以清除暗杀行动中所使用的毒药残留。我们录下了全程,这后来成了我们的纪录片。而在我们拨打这个电话前的那个周五,普京刚刚发表了一篇长篇演讲,声称“我们与 Navalny 的事情毫无关系,这全都是假的”。结果到了周一,我们直接公开了这段长达一小时的视频,展示了一名俄罗斯间谍在电话里清清楚楚地解释他们具体是如何进行下毒的。

Original English

Elliot Higgins: Yeah, he called them up. So um we we had this filmmaker with us who was just filming interesting things we were doing and we thought, wouldn't it be fun to call these people up now? got their phone numbers [laughter] and we thought it would be like over in 10 minutes they'd all hang up or you know swear us or something and that happened for the first three or four calls but then and Navalny was the guy calling of them up so then we tried we spoofed the phone number of the FSB called one of the guys up and Navalny pretended to be kind of an officer setting the assassination attempt it's worth tracking down the video and watching the whole thing it's in the documentary entry we did, but the full video is an hour long. And he got the guy to give him a blowby-blow account of exactly how the poisoning had done. They basically got to his hotel room, you put poison on the seam of his underpants, and then when he put them on and went to the airport, it activated and started to nearly kill him. But he just gave us a blowby-blow description of then how he when they recovered Navalny and he was injured they got his clothes and then cleaned his kind of underpants really carefully to get rid of the poison they'd used in the assassination and we recorded the whole thing and then that became our documentary but we'd actually Putin on the Friday after we did that phone call had just given a big speech about you know I have nothing to do with this Navalny you know this is all untrue and then on the Monday we're able to reveal this hourong video of one of despise explaining exactly how he did the poisoning.

高危目标与日常安全挑战

Nicolai Tangen: 你每天自己都要检查自己的内裤吗?[笑声]

Original English

Nicolai Tangen: Do you check your underpants every day? [laughter]

Elliot Higgins: 我的意思是,我建议大家每天都这么做。

Original English

Elliot Higgins: I mean, I would advise everyone does that every day.

Nicolai Tangen: 我只是开个玩笑。不过你确实是个高价值的目标。

Original English

Nicolai Tangen: I mean, joking. I mean, you're a you're a high value target.

Elliot Higgins: 好的,这确实是我们必须认真对待的事情。目前,西米德兰兹或东米德兰兹的反恐警察偶尔会来拜访我,告诉我他们的世界里正在发生什么,这总是让人有点不安。你确实必须具备更强的安全意识,并且在遇到奇怪的事情时要保持警惕。你需要去想,这只是日常的奇怪事情,还是专门针对我的奇怪事情?

比如有一次我们在荷兰举办了一场大型活动后,几名团队成员在外面散步,发现有一个人一直在跟踪他们并拍照。于是他们设法拍下了那个人的照片,觉得这个人很可疑,也许是个间谍。然后他们花了几个星期的时间试图弄清楚这个人是谁。结果发现,他只是个粉丝,只是因为太害羞了不敢走过来打招呼,所以才在远处拍照。所以,是的。我们联系了他并说:“嘿,顺便说一下,以后最好别这么做了。”

Original English

Elliot Higgins: Well, I mean, it's it's something we have to take seriously. So, it's like at the moment I have West Midlands or East Midland's counterterrorism police pay me the occasional visit to let me know what's going on in their world, which is always a bit disconcerting. um you do have to be kind of a lot more security aware and aware of when something weird happens is you kind of think about is that just general weirdness or is that a weirdness that's particularly focused on on me. It's like we had one guy after a big event we did in the Netherlands a couple of the team were walking around and this guy was following them around taking photos of them. So they managed to snap a photo of him thinking this guy's dodgy, maybe a spy. And they they spent weeks trying to figure out who this guy was. He was just a fan. He was just too shy to come up and say hello. So he's just taking photos from a distance, which is Yeah. We we contacted him and said, "Hey, by the way, please probably best not to do that in the future."

Nicolai Tangen: 好的,今天拍照的人也都是你的粉丝。那么,我们换个话题。在可用在线材料的数量方面,现在和 2012 年相比,变化的幅度有多大?

Original English

Nicolai Tangen: Yeah. Well, the the the people taking photos today are fans, too. So um now, um we put I think we probably put in a jingle here because I changing topics. the difference between now and 2012 in terms of what's available online in terms of material. What what's the magnitude of change?

数据洪流与技术手段的演变

Elliot Higgins: 我认为一个真正的变化是我们现在获取卫星图像的渠道。回到 2012 年,你非常依赖谷歌地球等工具。那时候你可能会在一年中获得一两张某个区域的清晰图像,这取决于谷歌何时决定更新它。现在,像 Planet 等公司每天都会拍摄整个地球表面的图像。你可以去购买这些数据,并以 50 厘米或 3 米的分辨率查看每天的地面情况。

社交媒体发布的数据量也成倍增长,尽管这也伴随着我们现在失去对这些数据的很多访问权的问题。过去,社交媒体公司的 API 非常开放,我们可以直接获取大量数据,从而可以针对特定时间或地点的特定帖子进行分析。现在,由于社交媒体公司试图封锁他们的数据资产以训练他们自己的 AI,许多此类通道已经被关闭了。这意味着作为调查人员,我们不得不变得更加敏锐和富有创意。

Original English

Elliot Higgins: Well, I I think one real change is the access we now have to satellite imagery. So, back in 2012, you were very reliant on things like Google Earth and stuff like that. You might get one or two good images of an area a year, depending on when Google decided to update it. Now, companies like Planet image the entire surface of the earth every single day. You can go and buy that data and see what is on the ground at 50 cm resolution or 3 m resolution day by day. The amount of data being posted on social media has mushroomed as well, although that comes with the issue that we've now lost a lot of access to it. It used to be that social media companies had very open APIs, so we could just pull lots of data and look for specific posts in a specific time or place. Now, lots of those gates have been closed as social media companies try to secure their data to train their own AI. That means as investigators we have to become a lot more clever and creative.

Nicolai Tangen: 据说以色列黑入了整个伊朗的普通监控摄像头,以查明领导人们都在哪里。你们会黑入这样的系统吗?

Original English

Nicolai Tangen: Supposedly Israel hacked into normal surveillance camera all over Iran right to check out where the the leaders were. Do you hack into systems like this?

Elliot Higgins: 不会。我们尽可能避免违法犯罪。

Nicolai Tangen: “尽可能避免”是什么意思?什么叫“尽量避免”?

Elliot Higgins: 好的,例如,有些人会向我们提供遭到黑客入侵后泄露出来的数据。如果这些数据已经被公布在互联网上,对任何人都是公开可见的,那么我们就会使用它。但我们自己从来不会去主动黑入任何系统。

Original English

Elliot Higgins: No. And we we try to avoid crimes whenever possible, but

Nicolai Tangen: [laughter] to try what does that mean? Try to avoid.

Elliot Higgins: Well, well, it's for example the um someone might offer us hacked data. If it's already leaked on the internet and it's available to everyone, we will use it. But we will never actually hack anything ourselves.

Nicolai Tangen: 那么你使用过的最离奇的数据来源是什么?

Original English

Nicolai Tangen: What's the weirdest source of data you've used ever?

Elliot Higgins: 嗯,这并不是我们自己的调查,但我认为它绝对算得上离奇。几年前,社交媒体上疯传着一张从 Instagram 复制粘贴过来的照片。这张照片据称来自美国众议员亚历山德里娅·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯(Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)的社交账号,画面展示了一双女性在浴缸里的腿,是一张颇具挑逗性的照片。很快,“WikiFeet”社区——也就是专门给人们的脚评分的恋足癖社区——立即指出:“那不是她的脚。我们知道她的脚长什么样。这实际上是另一个人的脚。”他们甚至找到了照片的原图。

但在我们所有的工作中,如果你回溯到 2000 年代初发生的那些秘密引渡飞行(rendition flights),你就会发现是“拍飞机”的爱好者们最先发现了那个网络。因此,那些拥有极其具体兴趣和爱好的人,实际上可以成为非常有用信息源。你只需要知道网络上有哪些群体,以及如何安全地与他们互动。

Nicolai Tangen: 所以怪才们是很有用的——怪才和怪癖者们。是的。[笑声]

Original English

Elliot Higgins: Um, this wasn't one of our investigations, but I always I think it definitely ticks the weird box. So, several years ago, there was a Instagram post that was being shared on social media. Had been copied and pasted, and it was supposedly from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's social media account, and it showed a pair of women's leg in the bath. It's like a saucy photo. Now, very quickly, the WikiFeet community, which is the foot fetish community who rates people's feet, immediately said, "That's not her feet. we know what her feet looks like. It's actually this person's feet and they found the original photograph of it." So, but you know, in all of this work, I mean, if you go back to um you know, the rendition flights that were happening in the early 2000s, it was plane spotters who found that network. So, people with really really specific interests and hobbies can actually be a really useful source of information that you just have to kind of know what kind of people out there and how to interact with them safely, I guess. So nerds nerds are good nerds and perverts. Yes, [laughter]

Nicolai Tangen: 我们也爱我们的老怪才。是的。[笑声] 那么,你见过的最令人震惊的虚假信息是什么?

Original English

Nicolai Tangen: we have the old nerd, too. We love him. Yeah. [laughter] What's the most shocking piece of disinformation that you've seen ever?

Elliot Higgins: 天啊,这种事情简直无时无刻不在发生。比如俄罗斯目前正在进行的一项持续的宣传攻势。它有很多不同的名字,其中一个叫做“套娃行动”(Russian Doll campaign)。因为他们一直在制作伪造的新闻网站视频,甚至也伪造了我的视频。他们制作了一个 3D 动画的、看起来像 PlayStation 2 时代的我的虚拟化身来制作一些视频。在这个宣传中,他们做的另一件事,比如一段典型的视频会宣称“亚美尼亚总统是一个毒贩”。实际上根本没人会理会那样的帖子,但他们每周都会粗制滥造出几十个这样的视频。

他们把这些视频直接通过电子邮件发给我们,以便让我们与他们互动,但我们根本不理会。不过,他们在其中一些帖子里放入了拼图碎片。视频里会出现假新闻内容以及一拼图碎片,并且这些碎片都标有数字。于是,我在长达数周的时间里开始把它们拼凑起来。最终拼出来的是什么呢?那是一幅我的脸被拼在便便上的拼图,上面还有把我的名字改写成“Elliot Shittings”的恶搞标志。抱歉我的粗俗言语。但他们居然把这个放在他们的虚假信息中,作为给我的某种奇怪的个性化留言。不过,我恰恰非常喜欢拼图。所以对我来说,这只是好玩。然后我甚至还可以把它发到社交媒体上。所以我当时说,继续做吧。他们其实后来还开始做第三个拼图。前面有两个,他们又做了第三个。但我可能对第二个拼图发布了太多内容,以至于他们后来被要求停止这个拼图制作了,这让我非常失望,因为那幅图其实看起来还挺不错的。

Original English

Elliot Higgins: Oh god. I mean, it's so so constant. It's like there's an ongoing um campaign from Russia at the moment. It's called various things. One of them is the Russian doll campaign because what they've been doing is making fake videos of news sites, including myself. Um, and they made a 3D animated kind of PlayStation 2 erographics avatar of me to do some of the videos. Uh, another thing they did in that campaign. So, a typical video would be like, you know, the Armenian president is a drug addict. Not that anyone would even bother interacting with that post, but they just churned dozens of these out every single week. And they said emailed them to us directly so we engage with them, which we don't. But they included jigsaw pieces in some of these posts. So, it' be the fake news video and a jigsaw piece. And um they were all numbered. So, I started piecing them together over a period of weeks and weeks. And what it was, it was a jigsaw puzzle of my face on a pile of poo with um belling uh Elliot shittings as the logo. Sorry, my language, but they had included this in their disinformation as a kind of weird personalized message to me. But things I like doing jigsaws. So for me this is just fun. And then I had like something I could kind of post on social media as well. So I was like this is just keep doing it. They actually started a third jigsaw puzzle. There were two and they did a third one. And I think I had posted so much about the second one they did they actually got told to stop doing it which I was very disappointed about because it looked good.

数字化时代的虚假信息与民主挑战

Nicolai Tangen: 那么在人员数量上,我们面对的是什么?比如在俄罗斯,进行这种虚假信息运动的人员和资源规模如何?我们面对的是什么?

Original English

Nicolai Tangen: What are we up against in terms of number of people? What what kind of the resources let's say in Russia to conduct those kind of campaigns? What are we looking at?

Elliot Higgins: 好的,这取决于起点和事件的规模。以美国明尼苏达州发生的 ICE 突袭和 Renee Good 枪击案以及 Alex Pretti 案为例。当时,社交媒体上立即开始分享和剖析相关的视频。在这种情况下,我们要做的是迅速发布信息,分析其中的几个关键说法,并明确指出这是否属实。当时 Alex Pretti 被解除武装然后被枪击,这成了一个争论的焦点。我们发布了一段视频,将多个视频画面同步组合在一起,在一个完整的序列中展示了他被解除武装并被枪击的瞬间,而不是网络上流传的那些破碎的片段。所以在那种时刻,你必须快速做出反应,因为舆论已经发酵,而且你知道政府也可能会撒谎。

但在其他情况下,调查可能是收集大量信息,开始分析其中呈现的模式,并尽量去核实这些信息。比如,我们最近一直在分析以色列在黎巴嫩的空袭,这是一个非常庞大的数据集,而不是关注单个视频或某一个特定实例。因此,这完全取决于规模以及我们试图回答的问题。

Nicolai Tangen: 你提到了在明尼苏达案件中速度的重要性。为什么速度如此关键?为什么在错误的认知先入为主之前把真相公布出来如此重要?

Elliot Higgins: 因为通常一旦人们觉得自己已经知道了某件事的“真相”,他们就很难再改变主意。在网络舆论极其激烈、且大家都知道政府很可能会给出一个与事实不符的事件版本的最初几小时里,尽量把真实信息注入到舆论中是非常重要的。人们会把你制作的这些核实内容传播到各个正在发生讨论的网站上。你不需要自己去逐个平台分发。你大可信任其他网友会把这些内容带到各个角落。

而当遇到长期深入的调查时,你可能不会有那种即时的网民互动。所以你在调查方法和信息分发上都必须采取完全不同的策略。你必须考虑,如何接触到那些真正想看这些内容的受众?

Nicolai Tangen: 那么你们现在需要有多快?比方说,发生了一起糟糕的枪击事件,你们需要多快抛出真相来抗衡那些编造的故事?

Elliot Higgins: 在明尼苏达枪击案这样的很多情况下,你最多只有两到三个小时的黄金时间。还有些稍微耗时一点但依然影响了舆论的案子,比如关于伊朗学校爆炸案(女学生遇难)的调查。我们找到了一段 Tomahawk(战斧)巡航导弹击中该建筑附近但未直接命中的视频。我们在空袭发生的大约 48 小时内发布了这一信息。然后特朗普就被看过了我们核实工作的记者追问为什么会有战斧导弹的视频,因为记者知道我们是可靠的,所以可以确信这是事实,而不是网络上传播的谣言。然后特朗普的反应是:“好吧,伊朗人也有战斧导弹。”这完全是荒谬的,但他之所以被逼到那个尴尬境地,就是因为我们能够提供可验证的证据。

Original English

Elliot Higgins: Yeah, I mean it depends on the starting point and the scale of something. So um with the Alex Pretti and Renee Good shootings in Minnesota there straight away you had videos that were being shared and dissected on social media. So in that case what we were trying to do is get information out quickly that looked at certain key claims which we could say yes this is true or not. So, Alex Pretti was disarmed and then shot and that became a point of contention. But we released a a video that kind of synchronized multiple videos to show the moment he was disarmed and then shot in one complete sequence rather than the fragments that were out there. So, that's when you kind of have to respond quickly because there is a discourse and you know the government's going to lie about it too. But in other cases, it could be a lot more, you know, gather a huge amount of information, start looking at what patterns it's showing you. um try to verify as much of that information as possible. So, uh we were looking at kind of Israelis um air strikes in Lebanon very very recently and that was a huge data set we were looking at rather than kind of individual videos and focusing on just one particular instance. So, there's just it's a matter of scale and you know what question we're trying to answer.

Nicolai Tangen: You mentioned the importance of speed in the Minnesota case. Just why is speed so important? Why is it so important to get the truth out before false perceptions have kind of established themselves?

Elliot Higgins: Because generally once people feel they know the truth about a subject, they'll not change their mind about it. And in those moments when there's, you know, just a few hours where there's a really vigorous discourse online and you know that there's going to be a government that's going to come out with a version of events that's probably not going to match reality. Trying to get as much information into that discourse is important because people will take those kind of objects you create and then spread them across multiple websites where all this discourse is occurring. So you don't have to distribute it just as as like a single note. You kind of can rely on other people to pick that up and take it elsewhere. When it's something that's a kind of longer term kind of deeper investigation, you don't have that kind of engagement happening. So you have to really approach that in a different way both in how you investigate it but also then how you distribute that information. How do you reach the audiences who want to see it?

Nicolai Tangen: So how fast do you need to be now? Let's say there is a shooting which is bad. How how quickly do you need to be out there with a narrative?

Elliot Higgins: Well, I mean I I think you've got at best two or three hours in many cases if it's something like those shootings in Minnesota. Um something that took a little bit longer but was still kind of influenced the discourse was if we look at the Iranian school bombing where the girls were killed. Um we found a video of Tomahawk missiles striking close to that building but not on it. We got that information out there probably within about 48 hours of the air strikes happening and then Donald Trump was being asked about you know why is there video of Tomahawk missiles by journalists who had seen our work know we're reliable and then could actually ask that question knowing that you know that is a fact not just something they've kind of read on the internet and rumored. And then Donald Trump responded by saying, "Well, the Iranians have Tomahawk missiles as well." Which is completely ridiculous, but he was forced into that position because we could present verifiable evidence.

Nicolai Tangen: 与十年前相比,现在的政府撒谎有多严重?

Original English

Nicolai Tangen: How much more are governments lying now compared to 10 years ago?

Elliot Higgins: 我觉得这取决于具体的政府。越来越多……

Original English

Elliot Higgins: I It depends on the government, I think. More

Nicolai Tangen: 我不想指名道姓。但某些位于这个国家以西的政府,他们确实在撒谎。这背后的原因是什么?

Elliot Higgins: 这实际上最终是威权俘获(authoritarian capture),因为随后它就变成了对忠诚度的测试。它不再关乎事实真相,而是变成了你如何向内部群体表明忠诚,以及你如何通过外部群体拒绝顺从来定义外部群体。所以这正是我们在美国所看到的——威权俘获了包括总统职位在内的各种制度,以及各种组织的屈膝顺从,在那里真相不再重要。一切都取决于那些忠诚度测试。

Nicolai Tangen: 你认为这会如何发展?

Elliot Higgins: 我目前的大量工作都在关注围绕虚假信息和民主理论的问题,以及我们是如何走到今天这一步的。

我认为这项工作让我非常担忧的一点——我花了很长时间研究这个——就是我们现在建立的社会和信息系统已经彻底改变了。我们已经从这种由精英控制并因此规范化的自上而下的信息系统,彻底转变了。过去我们有媒体等制度,它们在很大程度上控制着向公众传播信息的流向,而公众是信息的接收者。在那种关系中,公众必须信任这些机构去生产可验证的信息,这些信息进而在法庭或议会中得到程序性的审议,然后坏人会因为做错事而被追究责任。这就是我们与这些机构拥有的社会契约。

而现在,这已经崩塌成了一个点对点、多对多的信息系统,在这个系统里,传统机构必须在那些“奖励眼球而非真相”的系统中与大众争夺注意力。例如像 X 这样的平台,其社交媒体机制将用户互动(engagement)的变现置于一切之上。这导致的结果就是,民粹主义、威权主义和阴谋论的观点表现得极好,因为它们不需要背后的程序性确定性(procedural certainty)。你只需宣称“这是真的”,人们就会点头,因为他们本就倾向于相信那样的说法。

Original English

Nicolai Tangen: I didn't want to be I didn't want to be specific. Certain governments that are kind of to the west of this country, they are lying. The thing is it's kind of it's authoritarian capture ultimately because then it becomes about loyalty tests. It doesn't come about the truth. It becomes about how you demonstrate your loyalty to the the ingroup and then how you can define the out groupoup by uh their refusal to tow the line. So this is really what we're saying seeing in the US this authoritarian capture of various institutions the presidency uh the kind of bending of the knee of various organizations where the truth is no longer important. It's all about those loyalty tests. How do you think this will develop?

Elliot Higgins: So, a lot of my work at the moment looks at issues around disinformation and democratic theory and kind of where we've got how we've got to where we are at the moment.

I think the the the one thing that really worries me about that work and I've spent a long time doing this is that the way we've kind of set up our society and information system now has changed completely. We've gone from this information system that was top down elite controlled and also normalized because of that. We had institutions, the media who you know they kind of controlled the flow of information to the public to a large extent and the public were recipients of information and in that relationship the public had to trust those institutions to produce verifiable information that they could be deliberated on it procedurally through courts through parliaments and then people would be held to account for wrongdoing. And that was the public the kind of social contract we had with those institutions. That's now collapsed into a peer-to-peer manyto many information system where institutions are competing for attention with the public in systems that rewards engagement over the truth and those platforms like X for example that monetize their social media process rewards basically engagement more than anything. So what that leads to is a system where populist authoritarian and conspiratorial ideas perform really well because they don't need the procedural certainty behind it. You just say this is true and people nod their head because they're prepared to believe that in a way

数字化时代的虚假信息与民主挑战(续)

Nicolai Tangen: 还有那整套基于点击的行为模式。

Original English

Nicolai Tangen: and the whole clickbased behavior.

Elliot Higgins: 是的。这一切都只关乎什么能吸引人们,而不是什么才是真实的。我们在许多引发大量公众关注的冲突中经常能看到这种情况。比如加沙的局势催生了大量的虚假信息,因为人们只是想获取点击量,并在像 X 这样的平台上将他们获得的关注变现。

Original English

Elliot Higgins: Yeah. It's just all about you know what engages people rather than what's truthful. And we see this often around conflicts where there's a lot of um public engagement. You know, the situation in Gaza produced a lot of um fake information because people just wanted to get the clicks and monetize the engagement that they were get getting on platforms like X.

Nicolai Tangen: 那么关于民主的更大问题是什么?我的意思是,你谈到了核实(verification)、审议(deliberation)和追责(accountability)。你能简要解释一下这个概念吗?

Original English

Nicolai Tangen: What are the bigger questions on on [clears throat] democracy? I mean you talk about verification, deliberation, accountability. Could you just explain briefly the concept?

Elliot Higgins: 好的。当民主运行良好时,你可以将其理解为具有三个核心功能。首先是核实(verification):我们如何知道什么是真实的?其次是审议(deliberation):我们如何根据真实信息来决定该做什么?第三是追责(accountability):我们如何让有权势的人为自己的行为负责。当这三个功能正常运转时,就能对权力起到约束作用。

但我们在我们当下的民主制度中,越来越多地看到一种表演式的版本。那并不是真正为了让当权者承担责任,或者进行真正的核实。那仅仅是为了赢得选举,为了建立一个足够让你当选的选民联盟。但这随后就会滑向一种“模拟民主”(simulated democracy),这种民主变得无序。在无序状态下,核实变成了一套预先决定好的事实,如果你跨出这个边界,你就会受到内部群体的攻击。审议也沦为了主要去识别谁是忠诚的,而不是识别基于这些信息应该做什么。追责则总是向外针对内部群体之外的人。你只要看看美国,就能看到这种事情每天都在非常非常清楚地发生。

Nicolai Tangen: 那么民主制度可以做些什么来对抗这种情况?

Elliot Higgins: 唉,不幸的是这是一个极其宏大的问题,需要许多不同部门的参与。我与决策者、政府官员以及民意代表探讨过这些问题,大家都认识到这是一个巨大的问题。

我们面临的问题是,自 2016 年以来,这主要被定义为外部干涉、虚假信息的问题,认为如果我们只要能解决那些虚假信息的问题,社会就会自我修复,民主就会重新繁荣。问题是,这完全是胡扯。这把虚假信息及其产生的问题当成了一个“供给侧问题”,认为只要清除供给,所有这些问题都会迎刃而解。但实际上,这是由于人们在面对那些机构时感受到了背叛和不信任,于是在这些在线空间中寻找替代信息源,而在这些空间里,流量互动(engagement)的优先级高于准确性。因此,即便他们真的想寻找真相,但他们进去了根本不以“寻求真相”为目的的环境。这些环境是为吸引眼球而设计的。于是人们被引向了更具阴谋论色彩的思维方式。而且,权威主义、民粹主义和阴谋论在这些环境里表现得极佳,而相比之下,通过传统机构、媒体或像 Bellingcat 这样进行的缓慢、程序性的核实,在这样的环境里则处于劣势。

Original English

Elliot Higgins: Yeah. So you can understand democracy as having three core functions when it works well. That's verification. How do we know what's true? deliberation, how do we decide to what we do on that? And then accountability is how we hold powerful the powerful to account. And when that functions, it restrains power. But what we tend to see more in our democracies is a kind of performative version of that where it's not really about holding the powerful to account or real verification. It's about getting elected. It's about building a coalition of voters who will be enough to get you in. But that then slides into a form of um simulated democracy which becomes disordered where verification is now about a prereddecided set of truths and if you go outside of that you become attacked by the ingroup. Deliberation um is also about really identifying who's loyal rather than identifying what to do on this information and accountability is always targeted outwards from the ingroup and you can look over to the US and see that happening very very clearly every single day. And so what can democracies do to counteract this? Well, unfortunately it's a big issue and it requires a lot of um involvement with lots of different sectors. It I I speak to um policy makers, government, people working in civil society about these issues and there's a recognition there's a huge problem. The problem we've got is really since 2016 has been defined as an issue of foreign interference of disinformation and that if somehow we can get rid of that issue that that false information society will fix itself and democracy will flourish again. Problem is that's complete nonsense. It treats disinformation and the problems it causes as a kind of supply side issue that if only we get rid of the supply then all these problems will fix itself. But really that's driven when people feel a sense of betrayal of distrust in those institutions and they look for alternative sources in these online spaces where engagement is rewarded over accuracy. So even though they might be trying to seek this truth, they're going into environments which are not designed for truth seeeking. They're designed for engagement. So people get drawn towards more conspiratorial ways of thinking. And again, authoritarianism, populism, and conspiracy theories perform extremely well. and slow procedural verification through institutions, the media, through Bellingcat doesn't perform as well in those environments.

人工智能如何重塑真相

Nicolai Tangen: 你认为这对我们作为一个长期投资者来说重要吗?

Original English

Nicolai Tangen: Do you think any of this is important for us as a long-term investor?

Elliot Higgins: 嗯,我认为当现实遭到质疑时,这当然非常重要。我是说,现在有人在做与伊朗相关的任何工作吗?你知道那里到底在发生什么吗?因为关于那里发生的事情,故事每天都在变。因此,如果没有那种可靠性,如果无法依赖什么可能是真实的、什么不是,那么就很难做出任何真正的战术或战略决策。而这正是开源调查如此有价值的地方。我们在许多不同的行业培训人员,包括投资公司、记者,各种各样的人都来学习如何做这种工作。

但是,如果以伊朗冲突为例,现在各方的信息流有多大?你认为它们相比如何?我的意思是……

Nicolai Tangen: 因为我们获取了太多的信息。信息量巨大,但全都是无法信任的极低质量的信息,所以你不得不利用其他方式来搞清楚到底发生了什么。这也是为什么在 Bellingcat,当我们观察伊朗时,卫星图像和社交媒体信息在过去是有用的,但也有其局限性,我们不得不通过其他方式来分析。

那么,人工智能(AI)是如何改变这一切的?

Original English

Elliot Higgins: Well, I think when reality becomes contest, I mean, does anyone work on anything to do with Iran at the moment? And do you know what the hell's going on? Cuz daytoday the story of what's happening changes. So without that reliability without being able to rely on what could be truthful and what's not then it's very hard to make any real you know tactical strategic decisions about things and this is where open source investigation is so valuable. I mean we train people in all kinds of different sectors I mean we've trained investment firms journalists you know all kinds of people to do this kind of work but if you take if you take the Iran conflict as an example how much information flow is there now from each side I mean how do you think they compare? um information I mean

Nicolai Tangen: because we got so much information there's lots of information it's just very poor quality information that you can't trust so you then have to use other ways of fig out what's going on and this is why at Bellingcat when we've been looking at around there is a limit on satellite imagery and social media information that has been useful in the past but there are other ways to look at what's going on there how is AI changing all of this

Elliot Higgins: 嗯,我认为 AI 给人们提供了一种“否认我的现实”的许可机制。如果他们看到一张自己不喜欢的照片或一段视频,他们就可以直接说:“哦,那是 AI 生成的。”然后他们就借此终止了对那个特定事物的关注。

此外,它还允许人们为不真实的事情制造证据。你经常能看到人们与一段 AI 生成的图像进行互动。他们明明知道那是 AI 生成的,但由于它支持他们认为正确的事情,他们依然会传播它。因此,打动人们的是图像中传递出来的“真相感”(truthiness),而不是事实本身。

我举个例子,曾经有一个极右翼的组织……

Original English

Elliot Higgins: um I think AI gives people a permission structure to deny my reality. So if they see a picture they don't like or a video, they can just say, "Well, that's AI." And that's the kind of end of their engagement with that particular object. Um, it also allows people to kind of make cases for stuff that's not really true. It's kind of you see so often people will engage with an AI image. They know it's AI, but it supports something that they think is true. So it's this kind of truthiness of the imagery comes across rather than it being factual. Um, I mean, one example of that is there was a far-right

Nicolai Tangen: 我觉得这有点出乎意料。你认为当有更多 AI 智能体(agents)投入使用时,会发生什么?

Original English

Nicolai Tangen: I think that's a bit surprising. Do you think it will happen when you get more kind of agents in place?

Elliot Higgins: 很有可能会。我自己就经常使用 AI 进行各种实验之类的事情。例如,多年来我一直想从“禁止化学武器组织”的网站上抓取所有关于叙利亚的文档,因为这正是我狂热专注的领域。这是个怪才的爱好,别担心。但我基本上直接去找了 Claude 并问它:“我该怎么做?”它直接给我写了一个 Python 脚本,在 10 分钟内就完成了一项我已经拖延了八年的工作。因此,AI 对于进行这种实验和探索确实非常有用。

Original English

Elliot Higgins: It it might do. I mean, I use AI a lot for various experiments and stuff like that. So, you know, just recently I I've for years wanted to scrape um all the Syria documents off the organization for the prohibition of chemical weapons website because that's my thing I'm into. That's a nerd thing. Don't worry about it. But it I just basically went to Claude and said, "How should I do this?" And it wrote me a Python script and within 10 minutes it had done a job that I'd been putting off for eight years. So that can be really really useful for just kind of experimenting and poking around. We've t

与家人的地理定位游戏

Nicolai Tangen: 我听说地理定位也是你和你儿子玩的游戏?

Original English

Nicolai Tangen: and geolocation is a game you play with your son

Nicolai Tangen: 我听说的。

Original English

Nicolai Tangen: I gather

Elliot Higgins: 是的。

Nicolai Tangen: 那能跟我说说这个游戏吗?你们是怎么玩地理定位游戏的?

Elliot Higgins: 好的,我会找一些照片,然后让他尝试在地图上找出它的位置。当然,那跟战争罪行毫无关系,但这确实是一件很有趣的事情。我们其实也在说,不久后会发布一款基于地理定位的游戏,我们可能会为我们的募款活动进行一次直播。这其实有点像一个叫 Rainbolt 的人玩的叫做 GeoGuessr 的游戏。GeoGuessr 会给你一张街景图像,然后你需要在地图上点击指出它的位置。

Original English

Elliot Higgins: yeah so tell me about the game I mean how do you play a geolocation game Well, I'll just like find some photo and you know, he'll kind of try and find it on you. You know, nothing like a war crime, but you know, it's just um it's a fun thing to do. We're actually saying that there's like a game that's based off geolocation that's being released soon and we'll probably do a live stream of that for our fundraising. So, it's kind of weirdly like there's um this guy called Rainbolt who does this thing called GeoGuessr. So, GeoGuessr, it gives you an image and then you click on a map of where you

坚守真相的个人代价

Nicolai Tangen: 太酷了。你大半生都在努力寻找真相,对吧?这在某种程度上就是你的使命。

Original English

Nicolai Tangen: Cool. Now, you've been spending a lot of your life trying to find the truth, right? Which is in a way what you do.

Nicolai Tangen: 到底是什么在驱动着你?

Elliot Higgins: 嗯,正如我所说,当我开始做这件事的时候,说实话就是想在网上和人吵架并赢下辩论。但多年来,我非常清楚地看到了这些信息在许多不同的背景下是多么重要。比如在 MH17 事件中,俄罗斯政府立即撒谎并制造了虚假证据。但我们可以指出那是伪造的,因为我们可以进行开源调查来审查并核实其是否属实。结果证明它是不真实的。在叙利亚和化学武器的使用上,我花了大量的时间,网上社区和俄罗斯政府释放了海量的虚假信息和宣传。

再次强调,争论永远都会存在,但通常当这种争执发生时,只是两个群体在争论他们认为什么才是“应该正确”的,而不是在进行真正的客观分析。因此,我们试图围绕这些价值观和理念来建立社区:你先做调查,你先去核实信息,然后你再形成自己的观点。你不能先带着先入为主的观点,然后为了迎合你的观点而拼凑调查——但遗憾的是,这恰恰是当前许多舆论场里经常发生的状况。

Original English

Nicolai Tangen: What's uh what's driving you here?

Elliot Higgins: Well, I mean it was as I said when I started it was arguing with people on the internet to be honest, but um over the years it became really clear how important this information was in a lot of different contexts that you know this like with MH17 immediately the Russian government were lying and producing fake evidence. But we could say that was fake evidence because we could do open source investigation to examine it and verify if it was true or not. It turned out it wasn't true. With Syria and chemical weapons use, which I spent a lot of time on, there's a huge amount of disinformation and propaganda about that coming from online communities and the Russian government. Um, and again, it's there's always going to be things that are contested, but usually when there's that contestation happening, it's just two people or two communities arguing with each other about what they think should be correct rather than doing analysis. So we're trying to build communities around those values and ideas that you do the investigation, you verify information, and then you have your opinion. You don't have your opinion and then fit the investigation around that is often kind of what happens around that discourse.

Nicolai Tangen: 对你个人而言,这带来了什么个人代价?

Original English

Nicolai Tangen: What are the personal costs to you as a person?

Nicolai Tangen: 我不是指财务方面,而是作为……

Original English

Nicolai Tangen: Well, I mean, not monitor it, but just as a

Elliot Higgins: 好的,这其中当然有安全方面的代价。比如有些地方我目前是不能去旅行的。显然俄罗斯是永远去不了了。但目前我也无法前往美国。因为美国当下盛行一种被称为“审查工业复合体”(censorship industrial complex)的阴谋论,该理论认为拜登政府、学术界和媒体记者暗中勾结以图谋不轨。而 Bellingcat 在某些群体中被无端牵扯了进去。尽管我们与此毫无瓜葛,但有些群体就是不喜欢 Bellingcat。甚至美国国务院里有人一直在搜寻我和 Bellingcat 与国务院之间的往来通信以证实他们的所谓阴谋,但这些通信根本不存在。这反而让他们觉得这背后隐藏着巨大的掩盖行为。

此外就是埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)。

Nicolai Tangen: 所以基本上你必须……抱歉,埃隆·马斯克怎么了?

Elliot Higgins: 是的,埃隆·马斯克曾在平台上公开称我们是“特工部门”(psyop)。我们知道这一点。此外,美国政府肯定知道我们是谁,而且我们对他们也非常严厉。我们发表过令他们尴尬的调查,所以我不想冒任何风险,比如飞到美国的某个机场,然后莫名其妙地被带到某个拘留中心去。

Nicolai Tangen: 所以,你基本上不得不呆在莱斯特。

Elliot Higgins: 没错。如果运气好的话,我还是能去莱斯特以外的少数地方旅行的,但[笑声]是的,情况差不多就是这样。

Original English

Elliot Higgins: Well, I mean, there is the security aspect of it because um like there's certain places I won't travel to at the moment. Obviously Russia's off the table for ever, but like I can't travel to the US at the moment because um there's this conspiracy theory called the censorship industrial complex which presents the idea that the Biden administration and academics and journalists basically colluded to you know do various things and um Bellingcat kind of got tied up in that just we' kind of got had nothing to do with it but people don't like Bellingcat in certain communities so we got kind of named with everyone And there's people in the state department who've been looking up communications between myself, Bellingcat, and the State Department to prove their case, but they don't exist. So that just makes them think there's a big cover up around this stuff now. Um, Elon Musk.

Nicolai Tangen: So basically, you have to Sorry, Elon Musk.

Elliot Higgins: Yeah. So Elon Musk called us a psyop. So um, we know this. Yeah. The US administration is definitely knows who we are and we've been very critical of them. uh published embarrassing investigations and I don't want to take the risk of, you know, turning up at an airport in America and then being off to a nice detention center for some reason.

Nicolai Tangen: So, you basically have to stay in Leicester.

Elliot Higgins: Yeah. Well, I can throw a bit outside of it if I'm lucky, but [laughter] yeah.

Bellingcat 的资金来源与全球非政府组织挑战

Nicolai Tangen: 那么 Bellingcat 的资金来源是什么?你们是如何维持运营的?

Original English

Nicolai Tangen: How do you fund uh how does Bellingcat fund itself?

Elliot Higgins: 好的。当我刚开始做这个的时候,我是通过 Kickstarter 进行众筹的。但随着我们的成长,我们获得了一些基金会的资助,比如开放社会基金会(Open Society Foundations)以及一些家族基金会。同时,我们大约 30% 的收入来自于我们举办的开源调查培训班(workshops),此外还有小额公众捐款。

但最近整个行业发生了一件令大家都非常震惊的事,那就是美国国际开发署(USAID)资金的削减。全球用于调查媒体非政府组织的大约 25% 到 40% 的资金在一夜之间因为 USAID 削减而化为乌有。虽然 Bellingcat 本身并不直接拿 USAID 的钱,但现在整个非政府组织的融资环境变成了一场噩梦。因为各大基金会现在面临着巨大的资金压力,去挽救大量濒临倒闭的机构,尤其是在全球南方(Global South),那里过去有大量的小型媒体非政府组织依靠这笔资金从事非常高质量的调查性新闻,结果很多因此在一夜之间就直接关闭了。

Original English

Elliot Higgins: Yeah. So um when I started I crowdfunded using Kickstarter but then as we've grown um there's been foundational funders like the open society foundations um family foundations we raise about 30% of our income from workshops we have small donations but um one of the things that's happened recently that's been a real shock to the whole kind of sector has been um the US aid funding cuts about 25 to 40% of the global funding for the kind of you investigative journalism NGOs's was lost overnight because of those US aid funding cuts. So even though Bellingcat didn't take any of US aid funding money, it the whole funding environment is a nightmare now. So you have to kind of really rely now on kind of small donors, high net worth individuals um cuz the foundations are now under a huge amount of pressure to basically save a lot of organizations that are going under and especially in the global south where a lot of that funding had was coming from us a lot of these small media NGOs's who doing really high quality investigative journalism just shut down overnight because of it.

Nicolai Tangen: 当你展望这个世界时,你是一个乐观主义者还是悲观主义者?

Original English

Nicolai Tangen: So when you look at the world are you an optimist or pessimist?

Elliot Higgins: 我会说我是一个“批判性的乐观主义者”(cynical optimist)。事情是这样的,在我的工作中,我已经看到了行动的成效。这不仅体现在我们在 Bellingcat 所做的事情,还体现在把这些调查技能传授给其他人——我们可能已经培训了数千名各机构的记者和活动家。同时,在线社区在看到我们的工作后,通过我们文章中展示的所有细节和案例研究,自发学习了如何进行开源调查。然后他们自己找到了非常有影响力的线索,这真正改变了现实。这确实给了我希望。

困难的部分是如何规模化地推广。我们如何让尽可能多的人参与进来?特别是在我们如今生存的这个环境中,争夺眼球和注意力才是重中之重,而不是真相本身。这在很大程度上毒害了许多人的信息环境。

Nicolai Tangen: 这是一个暂时的现象吗?我们在虚假信息、真相和民主的关系上面临的这种糟糕处境,只是暂时的,还是说这就是未来的常态,甚至会继续变得更糟?

Elliot Higgins: 我认为我们目前所处的环境正在滋生这些最糟糕的趋势。如果我们不采取真正的行动,它就会变成默认的常态。

最近关注基尔·斯塔默(Keir Starmer)关于网络安全的言论是很有趣的,比如提议禁止 16 岁以下儿童使用社交媒体。我认为在教育方面需要做更多工作,以培养年轻人的批判性思维能力。所以我们目前的大量工作是与剑桥大学出版社及评估(Cambridge University Press and Assessment)、国家教学研究所(National Institute of Teaching)等机构合作,开发这些批判性思维技能的教学课程以及教师培训材料。对于学生,我们与大学合作建立调查中心和开源培训材料,让学生们能够开展自己的调查并围绕这些工作建立起自己的社区。

因此,你必须主动去构建这些免疫机制。很多在回望一战和二战之间那段历史时期(即法西斯主义兴起)的人,往往会理所当然地认为民主只是在后来自动修复并走出了阴霾,认为纳粹德国只是历史的一个偶然异常。但实际上,那需要人们采取切实的行动去重新构建民主制度,让人们在一战的创伤后能够重新信任这些机构。而在今天,人们似乎觉得大家自己就会想明白,因为民主是默认的常态。但这绝对不是事实。

Original English

Elliot Higgins: Um I I would say I'm a cynical optimist is the best way to think of it. I the thing is in my work I've seen what you can do this um you know getting not just what we do at Bellingcat but showing other people these skills be they um you know journalists in lots of organizations we've trained I mean we we've probably trained several thousand journalists and activists in open source investigation but also the online communities that have seen our work and learn how to do open source investigation just by the way we kind of include all the details in our articles do case studies and then they find stuff themselves that is really really impactful and does actually make a difference. That's something that gives me hope. The difficult part is doing that at scale. How do we get as many people involved for that as possible, especially now we live in this environment where, you know, the attention is really the name of the game, not the truth. And that's really kind of poisoned the information environment for a lot of people.

Nicolai Tangen: And is that a temporary thing? Are we just temporarily in a bad spot when it comes to lies and truth and democracies? or is this just a step on, you know, is this just going to continue and get worse?

Elliot Higgins: I think the situation we're in now at the moment fuels those kind of worst aspects and is the default state unless we actually take real action against it. It's been interesting to look at um Keir Starmer's recent kind of the reporting on what he's been saying about online safety, you know, 16 year olds being banned from social media. I think there needs to be more around education in terms of building critical thinking skills in young people. So a lot of our work at the moment is working with things like Cambridge University Press and Assessment, the National Institute of Teaching about developing those critical thinking skills and teacher training material. And for students, we work with universities to build investigative hubs and open source training materials so students can do their own investigations and build their own communities around that. So you have to proactively build this stuff. A lot of people, you know, look back at the kind of interwar period where, you know, there's the rise of fascism and they think that democracy just kind of fixed itself and figured it out and, you know, Nazi Germany was an outlier. But that took real action to build democratic systems to actually make people feel they could trust those institutions again after World War I. And nowadays, it's just kind of like, well, you know, people figure it out for themselves because democracy is the default. And that's really not the case.

给年轻人的建议:寻找真相与社会责任

Nicolai Tangen: 最后一个问题,Elliot。对于那些想要努力让这个世界变得更美好的年轻人,你有什么建议?

Original English

Nicolai Tangen: So last question, Elliot, if you what would be your advice to young people who would want to try to make this a better place?

Elliot Higgins: 嗯,这真是一个非常宏大的问题。我认为当他们分享信息时,当他们看到某样东西并觉得“我也许应该转发一下”时,他们需要真正仔细考虑这会带来什么影响。

就像我谈到我 14 岁的女儿,她的许多朋友都在频繁使用社交媒体。我们非常努力地不让她过多使用。但他们会去模仿他们在社交媒体上看到的潮流。而有些潮流实际上纯粹是为了博眼球、赚流量而胡编乱造。所以真正需要与人们去讨论,这样做到底会带来什么影响——这其实对社会有着巨大的负面影响。如果每个人都在为了吸引眼球而肆无忌惮地撒谎,这正是我们必须要着手解决的最基本的问题。

Original English

Elliot Higgins: Well, that's a that's a very big question. Um I think they need to really consider what they, you know, when they share information, when they look at something and they think maybe I should do that, they need to think about what impact that does have. It's it's like um I was talking my daughter's 14 and a lot of her friends use a lot of social media. We really trying not to let her use that much social media, but they'll mimic trends they're seeing and some of those trends are really about making stuff up because it'll get engagement and it's kind of actually talking to people about what impact that actually has and that has a big impact on society. If everyone's just telling lies for engagement and that's you know just the basics we need to start with.

Nicolai Tangen: 好的。非常非常感谢你,Elliot。感谢你所做的一切。

Original English

Nicolai Tangen: Yeah. Very big very big thank you to you. Thanks for everything you're doing

Elliot Higgins: 也谢谢你。

[现场掌声与音乐声]

Original English

Elliot Higgins: and thank you [applause and music]

📌 文中提及的人物和组织

人物: Elliot Higgins

公司/组织: Bellingcat

关键字: open-source-intelligence disinformation investigative-journalism democracy