僵局与压迫:伊朗“史诗狂怒行动”六个月后的社会图景
在**“史诗狂怒行动”**(Operation Epic Fury: 美以联合对伊朗发起的空袭军事行动)发起整整六个月后的今天,这场标榜为“快速且具决定性”的战争已深陷泥潭。唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)最初期望通过压倒性的军事攻势激发伊朗国内起义、推翻强硬派政权并摧毁其核计划,然而这一目标至今未能实现。随着战事持续延宕,伊朗民众最初抱有的变革希望已逐渐破灭,取而代之的是无处不在的绝望感。
在战争带来的地缘局势动荡下,伊朗民众正承受着双重的极端压力:
- 经济危机持续加剧:高企的失业率与暴涨的物价,使得基本生活必需品对普通家庭而言已变得遥不可及。
- 政治高压与社会箝制:伊朗伊斯兰共和国政权不断收紧社会控制,今年针对政治犯的死刑执行数量显著增加。网络异见人士遭到严厉打压,民众普遍处于焦虑与恐惧之中。
在这种令人窒息的社会氛围中,德微纳等大城市近年来兴起的咖啡馆文化(Cafe Culture: 青年群体社交与休闲的非正式公共空间)也未能幸免。由于无力负担昂贵的正餐,每周与朋友相聚咖啡馆喝杯咖啡,成为了伊朗年轻人维持“正常生活”的最后慰藉。在这些空间里,女性往往不戴面纱,形成了鲜明的反主流文化标志。然而,这一现象迅速引来了国家机器的整肃,最近数十家咖啡馆遭到强制关闭。这表明德黑兰当局意图彻底掌控社会,甚至不容许任何偏离国家意识形态的微小普通生活角落存在。
在建立这种内部社会高压的同时,地缘政治上的施压政策也在其他边境线上不断演变。
Original English Source
From the New York Times, it's the headlines. I'm Tracy Mumford. Today's Friday, August 28th. Here's what we're covering. 6 months ago today, the United States and its partners have launched Operation Epic Fury, one of the largest, most complex, most overwhelming military offenses. The US and Israel launched massive air strikes on Iran with President Trump vowing there would be a quick decisive victory over the country's hardline regime. I call upon all Iranian patriots who yearn for freedom to seize this moment to be brave, be bold, be heroic, and take back your country. America is with you. I made a promise to you and I fulfilled that promise. Now, half a year in, the war has failed to achieve the goals Trump first laid out of sparking an uprising to overthrow Iran's government and crushing the country's nuclear program. Instead, the conflict is dragging on with analysts saying there's no end in sight. And in Iran, my colleagues say there's a growing sense of hopelessness. For a lot of Iranians when the war started although they were very worried about what might happen you know a lot of them had some kind of hope for what the war might bring in terms of unseeding the regime that of course has not come to pass and so instead they're sort of increasingly convinced that okay the Islamic Republic is here to stay and then also they're just facing a lot of economic pressures. Jaganati covers Iran for the times. She says Iranians are facing high rates of unemployment and skyrocketing food prices that have put even basic staples out of reach for many people. At the same time, beyond the economic squeeze, they're also feeling the pressure of a regime that's gotten more and more repressive, tightening control over the country. There's been increased executions this year, especially of political prisoners. the government has been going after dissident or even people who just speak out against it online and so people feel quite scared and anxious about that and then even small things. So recently, Thrron and other major cities have seen this kind of burgeoning cafe culture and this has sort of come about because as Iranians are pressured economically, you know, they can't maybe even go out to dinner, but they can still at least afford a cup of coffee with their friends once a week or so and kind of go out for a few hours and feel normal. And these have been places where young people had been gathering, women were often unveiled, and then that had become kind of this very conspicuous counterculture that has now become a target for the state. And so recently, dozens of these cafes have been shut down. It's really just the latest instance of the state making very clear that it wants to be in control of society and is not allowing even these little pockets of sort of ordinary life or anything that they see as not fully in line with state ideology.
边境施压:特朗普政府的易名行政令与海地移民驱逐升级
在对内对外政策上,特朗普政府近期连续推出强硬举措,将地缘政治博弈与国内移民管制推向新高度。首先,在美加贸易战不断升温的背景下,特朗普总统签署行政命令,宣布将安大略湖(Lake Ontario)立即更名为**“美国湖”**(Lake America)。此举是其继将墨西哥湾更名为“美国湾”后,再次利用地缘命名权对贸易对手施加心理战。加拿大某省首脑对此不以为然,直言这不过是特朗普“为巩固基本盘而迎合选民的政治秀,令人感到悲哀”。值得注意的是,该易名命令仅在联邦机构和官方文件中生效,邻接该湖的纽约州州长已明确表态,州政府将继续沿用“安大略湖”这一历史名称。
与对邻国的地缘挑衅相对应,在美移民的居留权处境也面临严峻收紧。随着临时保护身份(Temporary Protected Status: 美国政府为因自然灾害或战乱而无法安全返回母国的外国人提供的临时合法居留身份)于今年夏天到期,特朗普政府正计划将遣返海地移民的包机频次从每月一次大幅提升至每周一次。
- 人道主义风险:海地目前正饱受极端黑帮暴力与基础设施瘫痪的折磨,安全局势极度恶劣。美国官方甚至发布了最高级别旅行警告,严禁美国公民前往。
- 降落地点转移:由于海地首都太子港的主要机场频频遭遇黑帮枪击袭击,出于安全考虑,未来的驱逐航班将不再降落首都,而是改在海地较小城市的机场降落。人权团体强烈谴责这一强行遣返政策,指出此举无异于将这些移民推向致命的深渊。
在关注政治与移民博弈的同时,大自然也在对脆弱地区施加致命的冲击。
Original English Source
Now, two quick updates on the Trump administration. First, we're going to be changing the name of Lake Ontario, effective immediately, to Lake America. President Trump signed an executive order yesterday directing his administration to rename Lake Ontario as he continues to take aim at Canada amid an escalating trade war. Trump has issued a declaration like this before, ordering the Gulf of Mexico to be officially renamed the Gulf of America. In response to the move this week, the head of one Canadian province dismissed it as more of the same, saying, quote, "He's trying to play the hits for his base, but I think everybody here thinks it's a little sad." When it comes to name changes, Trump's order only affects federal agencies and documents. And the governor of New York, the state that borders the Great Lake, said it will continue to call it Lake Ontario. And the Times has learned the Trump administration is planning to increase deportation flights to Haiti in an effort to quickly expel people whose legal status expired this summer. Over the years, more than 300,000 Haitians had been granted temporary protected status to legally live and work in the US because Haiti was deemed so unsafe. First due to a deadly earthquake, then gang violence that has gripped the country. But in June, the Supreme Court allowed President Trump to cancel that status. Now, according to documents The Times reviewed, deportation flights to Haiti could go from once a month to once a week. Some human rights groups have warned that people are being sent back to dangerous conditions. The State Department itself has even told American travelers not to visit Haiti, quote, "due to the risk of crime, kidnapping, terrorism, unrest, and limited healthcare. While deportation flights used to land at Hades main airport in the capital, there have been reports of gangs firing on planes there. And the new flights will land at an airport in a smaller city instead.
气候危机下的灾难:尼泊尔冰川崩塌引发毁灭性山洪
全球气候变暖引发的极端自然灾害正以毁灭性的方式席卷喜马拉雅地区。本周在尼泊尔发生的一场灾难性突发山洪(Flash Flood: 突然发生的、水流极急的破坏性洪水)导致伤亡人数急剧上升。官方确认的死亡人数已翻倍至500人以上,另有近千人下落不明。据幸存者描述,山洪爆发时毫无征兆,伴随着雷鸣般的巨响与强烈的气流,混杂着泥沙与巨石的滔天巨浪瞬间摧毁了村庄,许多人眼睁睁看着亲人被无情的急流卷走。
灾区的救援与后续次生灾害防范工作面临极大困难:
- 交通中断与空中救援:尼泊尔外交部长表示,专家评估此次洪灾由一块巨大的冰川断裂坠入山谷所致,沿途城镇被夷为平地。由于地面道路彻底损毁,救援人员目前只能完全依赖直升机进出山区转移幸存者。
- 堰塞湖溃决风险:更大的危机仍在潜伏。中方官员警告称,引发最初山洪的冰崩在高原地区阻断河道,形成了一个巨大的堰塞湖(Barrier Lake: 由山崩、冰崩或泥石流堵塞河道而形成的湖泊)。随着暴雨横扫该地区,该堰塞湖随时面临溃决风险,可能对下游造成二次毁灭性冲击。
相比于自然灾害的突发性破坏,人类社会的黑市网络则在国际制裁的缝隙中展现出惊人的“适应力”。
Original English Source
In Nepal, the death toll from this week's catastrophic flash flood is still rising. As of this morning, the official toll has doubled to more than 500 with nearly a thousand people still missing. And Times reporters on the ground in Nepal have been speaking with some of the survivors who described how the water seemed to come out of nowhere. One man from a village near Nepal's border with Tibet said he was at home with his family Wednesday morning when he heard what sounded like a thunderclap. Then he felt a whoosh of air, like a breeze coming through. Before he knew it, a massive wave of muddy water and rock had slammed into his home. He was able to outrun it, scrambling up the valley, but he watched as it carried away his wife and two daughters, aged seven and eight. Nepal's foreign minister said the flood, which experts think was caused by a huge chunk of a glacier plummeting down into the valley below, has completely wiped out town after town. With the roads washed away, too, helicopters have been flying in and out of the mountains, picking up survivors. At this point, authorities are warning that there could be more water coming. Chinese officials say that the ice avalanche that set off the initial flood also formed a massive lake, and that lake is now at risk of bursting as rain sweeps through the region.
跨国犯罪网络:黑市订单下的加拿大豪车走私至俄罗斯通道
在西方国家对俄罗斯实施严厉制裁的背景下,一条隐秘而暴利的跨国走私黑色产业链悄然形成。近年来,加拿大各大城市盗车案激增,盗贼甚至不惜入室行窃以获取车钥匙。国际刑警组织(Interpol)的数据显示,过去两年中,至少有近5000辆在加拿大被盗的皮卡(如道奇公羊、丰田坦途、福特F-150)及路虎等豪车最终流向了俄罗斯,且该数字被认为存在严重漏报。由于乌克兰战争引发的贸易制裁,俄罗斯黑市对西方高端越野车与皮卡的需求急剧膨胀,催生了高度组织化的跨国犯罪网络。
这一走私链条的运作模式表现出极高的专业性与隐蔽性:
- “按需盗窃”机制(Stolen to Order: 犯罪团伙根据买家指定的具体车型和配置,精准实施盗窃的犯罪行为):走私集团并非随机作案,而是根据俄罗斯买家的订单需求,派遣底层“马仔”在加拿大的高档住宅区和购物中心精准搜寻目标车辆。
- 集装箱伪装与中转转运:盗窃得手后,走私网络利用40英尺的标准集装箱,将豪车夹杂隐匿在床垫、合法车辆或生活杂物之间。这些集装箱从蒙特利尔或温哥华港口出发,通过迪拜等中东中转站规避监管,最终运抵俄罗斯。
- 暴利与政策博弈:加拿大边境服务局(Canadian Border Services Agency: 负责加拿大边境安全、出入境管理及关税执法的联邦机构)在蒙特利尔港的突击搜查中,每周能拦截20至30辆被盗车辆,案值高达200万美元。尽管加拿大已通过加重刑罚等手段加大打击力度,令被盗数量有所回落,但黑市中巨大的利润仍驱使着犯罪分子铤而走险。
在沉重的新闻话题过后,流行文化与社会公益的力量为公众提供了一抹别样的色彩。
Original English Source
In Canada, starting a few years ago, there was a surge in car thefts. It got to the point that thieves were breaking into people's homes just to get keys. And specifically, a lot of pickup trucks like Dodge Rams, Toyota Tundras, and Ford F-150s seem to be just disappearing off the streets. So, my colleague Michael Schwarz and I started looking into this when we got a tip off from a source at Interpol. That's the International Police Agency. And they told us that thousands of stolen Canadian cars and trucks were ending up somewhere really surprising, Russia. Jane Bradley is an investigative reporter at the Times. She says according to data from Interpol, there were almost 5,000 reports of stolen Canadian vehicles ending up in Russia over the past 2 years. And authorities think that's a significant undercount. What's happening, Jane says, is that Russians have developed a huge taste for Western pickups and luxury cars that they can no longer get due to sanctions over the war in Ukraine. And the more people can't have them, the more they want them. What we've found is that in order to feed these markets, these black markets in Russia, these organized crime networks have cropped up. So what happens is that there is somebody in Russia who wants 15 Land Rovers say and you will get these kind of foot soldiers if you like the lower level criminals who will be walking around residential neighborhoods, high-end shopping malls in Canada looking for those 15 Land Rovers to fulfill that order. So this is an incredibly sophisticated, incredibly organized network. These cars are not stolen by chance. They are stolen to order. One of the big questions we had when we heard about this was how they actually get these cars, these stolen cars to Russia. And they basically use these huge like 40ft shipping containers that leave Canadian borders through ports in Montreal and Vancouver. And what we found when I went on a raid with some border officials at the Canadian Border Services Agency was these stolen cars would be sandwiched hidden between mattresses, legitimate cars, household boxes in these huge shipping containers, and they would then be shipped to Russia, usually by the Middle East, places like Dubai. And the border officials I spoke to in Montreal said that they're recovering 20 to 30 stolen cars worth up to $2 million every week. So, this is a hugely lucrative trade. Jane says Canada has been trying to crack down on these crime rings and thefts have been going down recently as the country has made changes like increasing prison sentences for car theft. Still, one man she talked to who was being held on charges of participating in a scheme like this said he didn't think it would stop anytime soon. There's just too much money to be made. Interestingly, some of the stolen cars have actually since been returned due to the work of authorities and a nonprofit anti-fraud group. You just got to imagine that's a bizarre call to get. Good news, we found your car. It's just going to take a little bit of time to get it back to you.
文化传奇与慈善光芒:多莉·帕顿的荧幕印记、社会奉献与经典音乐遗产
在新闻速递之外,本期节目以趣味问答的形式,致敬了美国乡村音乐传奇巨星多莉·帕顿(Dolly Parton)卓越的演艺生涯、广泛的慈善事业以及持久的文化影响力。多莉在其长达数十年的职业生涯中涉足广泛,不仅在音乐界取得巅峰成就,还频繁客串各类电视节目,包括动画长片《辛普森一家》(The Simpsons)、在多莉山录制的真人秀《单身女郎》(The Bachelorette)以及译制动画《阿尔文与花栗鼠》(Alvin and the Chipmunks),展现了极具亲和力的幽默感。
多莉·帕顿不仅在流行文化中占据重要地位,其在社会公益与慈善领域的投入同样令人瞩目:
- “想象力图书馆”与教育资助:她的慈善项目向全球多国儿童累计赠送了超过3亿册图书,其名下的基金会还为家乡田纳西州的毕业生提供15,000美元的奖学金。
- 多元社会关怀:早在20世纪90年代初,多莉便录制慈善歌曲为艾滋病(HIV/AIDS)群体筹款,并协助在田纳西州建立了白头海雕(Bald Eagle)野生动物保护区。她曾对媒体直言,自己“对给予他人所带来的快乐深具烟瘾”。
- 经典曲目《乔琳》的多样化演绎:多莉的名歌《乔琳》(Jolene)作为经久不衰的卡拉OK金曲,曾被碧昂丝(Beyoncé)、其教女麦莉·赛勒斯(Miley Cyrus)以及白色条纹乐队(The White Stripes)等一众知名音乐人翻唱。这首歌曲源自多莉发现丈夫对银行柜员产生好感后的真实经历,其自嘲而深情的歌词透露出她独特的智慧与个性。
Original English Source
Those are the headlines. If you'd like to play the Friday news quiz, stick around. It's just after these credits. And real quick, if you are not a Times subscriber yet, you can get a full month of free access to everything we publish when you download the Times app now. This show is made by Will Jarvis, Margaret Kadifa, Jake Lucas, Yan Stewart, and me, Tracy Mumford. Original theme by Dan Powell. Special thanks to Isabella Anderson, Sam Dolnick, Miles McKinley, Zoe Murphy, and Chris Wood. Now, time for the quiz. And this week, in honor of Dolly Parton, we're going allin with a threeparton Dolly quiz. And if you're not a Dolly super fan, don't worry. You got this. Don't be intimidated. Dolly never was. First question. Would you welcome Dolly Parton? Dolly. Over the course of her decadeslong career, Dolly was everywhere. We're going to play you three little clips of her cameos on famous TV shows. See if you can name the show. Here's the first one. Cleaning lady, would you let us out of here? Me? I'm Dolly Parton. I didn't ask your life story. Just give me the key. Young man, where I come from, the South, folks, say please. That's Dolly on the Simpsons. Next one. Where she even appeared on reality TV. I would not have known this was their first date. They really seemed into each other cuz I have a pretty good eye for that kind of stuff myself. to them. I do know that there is such a thing. That was from an episode of The Bachelorette that was filmed at Dollywood. And last cameo. Deep cut here. Simon Theodore. And you must be Alvin. Meet my assistant Fiddle and Freddy. He came in second. That was Dolly on Alvin and the Chipmunks. Something tells me those Chipmunks ain't from Nashville. Okay, next question. On top of being a musical legend, Dolly Parton was also known for her philanthropy, taking up so many different causes. We're going to do a speed round here. See how many you can get. Parton gave away over 300 million what? To children in Australia, Canada, Ireland, the UK, and the US. 300 million what? The answer is books. In the early 90s, she recorded a song for a charity album raising money to help people with this disease HIV AIDS. Her Dollywood Foundation gives $15,000 scholarships to students graduating in her home state of Tennessee. And final one, she helped found a sanctuary in Tennessee for this animal. A sanctuary for bald eagles. Very America. A few years ago, Parton put it this way to People magazine saying, quote, I'm kind of addicted to the feeling of giving. And last round here, one of the Dolly hits that you cannot avoid out in the world is Jolene, a karaoke favorite. It's also a favorite for other artists to cover. We're going to play you three snippets of Jolene covers. You tell us which performer or band is doing their best Dolly. First up, that was Beyonce. Next one. With ivory skin and eyes of emerald green, Miley Cyrus there, who is Dolly Parton's godaughter. And number three, maybe a little harder. That was the white stripes covering Jolene. Dolly, of course, wrote Jolene when she realized her husband had a crush on a bank teller and seemed to be spending a lot of time there. She said in various interviews, "I knew we didn't have the kind of money for him to be spending that kind of time at the bank." That's it for the news quiz. If you want to tell us how you did, our email is the headlines@nytimes.com. I am off next week, but the show will be back with my colleague Will Jarvis. For now, have a great weekend in honor of Dolly, however you do it. Put on some rhinestones, watch Steel Magnolia, or sleep just 3 hours a night, which is how Dolly Parton said she managed to pull off everything she did.