IMF的创立与核心职能
大家好，我是挪威主权财富基金（Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund: 挪威政府拥有的全球最大主权财富基金之一）的尼古拉·坦根（Nicolola Tangen）。今天我打上领带，因为能与克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃（Kristalina Georgieva）女士同框，我感到非常荣幸。能与您在一起真是太棒了。克里斯塔利娜是国际货币基金组织（International Monetary Fund: 简称IMF，负责促进全球货币合作、金融稳定、国际贸易、高就业和可持续经济增长）的总裁，您以其富有远见的领导力以及倡导重要、大胆的长期改革而闻名。那么，我们先从头开始，国际货币基金组织究竟是什么？国际货币基金组织与世界银行（World Bank: 致力于减少贫困和支持发展中国家的发展）在第二次世界大战末期共同成立，旨在帮助各国战后重建，并建立能够稳定金融体系的机构。我们的使命是实现宏观经济和金融稳定，以促进增长和就业。我们拥有191个成员国。事实上，过去几年我们新增了两个小成员国：安道尔（Andorra）和列支敦士登（Liechtenstein）。
国际货币基金组织如何帮助这些国家呢？我们为成员国提供的首要帮助是，让他们能够从一个独特的视角审视世界经济。我们拥有收集所有国家数据的独特权利，并且定期进行。这样，我们就能掌握各国经济的“生命体征”，汇总整体情况，然后识别全球趋势，提醒各国注意。其次，当国家陷入困境，需要迅速获得融资以稳定经济时，我们会伸出援手。我们拥有高达1万亿美元的贷款能力，用于帮助处于危机中的国家，其中一些是中等收入国家，另一些是贫穷脆弱的国家。我们做的第三件事是帮助各国建立健全的机构，特别是货币当局、财政当局，以及数据和统计能力，以便它们能够以更明智的眼光审视自身的经济发展。
Original English
Hi everyone, I'm Nicolola Tangen from the Norwegian So wealth fund and today I put on a tie because I'm in really good company with Cristina Gorava. Wonderful to be with you. Christina is the uh managing director of IMF, the International Monetary Fund and you are known for your visionary uh leadership and the way you have been advocating for really important bold long-term reforms. So let's just start with the beginning here. Uh IMF, what is it? Well, the IMF was created um towards the end of the Second World War together with the World Bank to help countries recover after the war and to put in place institutions that can stabilize the financial system. Our mandate macroeconomic and financial stability for growth and employment. Uh we have a uh membership of 191 countries. In fact, over the last years, we got two new members, small countries, Andor and Likensstein. That's good. And how do you help these companies? What we do for our members is first help them to see the world economy from one vantage point. Uh we have this unique right to collect data from all countries and we do that regularly. So we can take the vital signs of economies aggregate the picture and then see what are the trends in the world they should be mindful of. Secondly, when countries are in trouble and they need quickly financing to stabilize their economies, we come through. We have lending capacity of $1 trillion. We deploy it for countries in crisis. Uh some are middle-income countries, some are poor, vulnerable countries. And the third thing we do is we help countries build good institutions especially monetary authorities, fiscal authorities, data, statistical capacity so they can see their own economic development uh with more uh educated eye.危机干预与国家案例
国家需要面临多严重的危机才会向国际货币基金组织求助？有时，它们会在危机爆发前就寻求帮助。我们还具备预防危机发生的功能。有时，当市场对它们关闭时，它们就会来找我们。我来分享一个我祖国的故事。我是保加利亚人。在20世纪90年代末，保加利亚（Bulgaria）遭受了恶性通货膨胀的打击，通胀率超过了8000%，于是它向国际货币基金组织求助。国际货币基金组织为我的国家所做的，是帮助我们建立了货币委员会（Currency Board: 一种固定汇率制度，通过将本币与某种稳定外币挂钩来稳定经济），这确实稳定了经济并实施了财政纪律。如今，保加利亚的债务占GDP的比例为24%，赤字为3%，并将于1月1日成为欧元区（Eurozone: 采用欧元作为共同货币的欧盟成员国区域）成员。至于国际货币基金组织最大的客户之一，阿根廷（Argentina）曾实施过多个项目。然而，到目前为止，这些项目都未能使其完全摆脱困境。我们希望目前的项目，通过支持一位非常倾向改革、意志坚定的总统，能够帮助阿根廷达到不再需要向国际货币基金组织借款的境地。
Original English
How bad does the crisis need to be before they call you? Well, sometimes they call before a crisis hits. We have also a function to prevent crisis from happening. Uh sometimes they call when markets close on them. Um I'll tell you a story of my own country. I am Bulgarian. In the late 90s, Bulgaria was hit by hyperinflation, over 8,000% inflation, and it caught on the IMF. So what the IMF did for my country was to help us put in place a currency board which really stabilized the uh economy and put fiscal discipline. Bulgaria today has 24% debt to GDP, 3% deficit and as of January 1 would be a member of the Euro zone. Um to among the biggest clients of the fund, Argentina has had a number of programs. So far, none of them got the country completely out of trouble. M we are hopeful that our current program uh supporting a president that is very reform-minded, very determined can bring Argentina to a point of not needing uh to to borrow from the IMF anymore.IMF与世界银行的职责划分
当国际货币基金组织援助保加利亚时，您是否曾想过有一天会执掌这个组织？当时国际货币基金组织援助保加利亚时，我其实正在世界银行工作，已经身处这两个布雷顿森林机构（Bretton Woods Institutions: 指国际货币基金组织和世界银行，二战后为重建全球经济秩序而设立）之一。那时我从未想过我们会坐在这里，而我已经执掌国际货币基金组织六年了。世界银行与国际货币基金组织同时成立。那么，你们之间如何分工呢？世界银行主要关注经济中的具体部门，并资助投资项目，主要是教育、道路和电力供应。目前，世界银行专注于为发展中国家创造更多就业机会。
相比之下，国际货币基金组织和世界银行的工作主要集中在新兴市场和发展中经济体。国际货币基金组织则侧重于宏观经济和金融稳定。我们不资助投资项目，我们资助的是国际收支（Balance of Payments: 一个国家在一定时期内与世界其他国家进行经济交易的系统记录）需求。所以，当一个国家即将崩溃时，我们就会介入，提供缓冲，并要求他们整顿经济。国际货币基金组织的最大价值在于帮助各国制定良好的政策和建立负责任的机构，从而使国家能够实现良好的增长轨迹。国际货币基金组织与所有国家合作。所有191个成员国都要经历我们所谓的第四条款磋商（Article IV Consultation: 国际货币基金组织定期对成员国经济进行全面评估和政策建议的机制），这是一个技术术语，指对每个经济体进行“生命体征”检查。无论大小、贫富，所有国家都需要向国际货币基金组织披露其经济状况。
Original English
Was it when IMF bailed out uh Bulgaria that you decided, you know what, I would love to be in charge of that one day? You know, at that time when the IMF bailed Bulgaria, I was actually at the World Bank. I was already in one of the two Bretonwoods institutions. Uh never crossed my mind at that time that we would be sitting with you and I would have been already six years at the helm of the IMF. The the World Bank was founded at the same time as IMF. So how do you uh split the work between you? So what the World Bank does is to look at sectors in the economy and fund investment projects predominantly education, roads, access to electricity. Right now the bank is concentrated on creating conditions for more jobs in the developing world. M in contrast the IMF and and the and the World Bank is primarily about the emerging markets in developing economies. This is where their work primarily uh goes. The IMF in contrast is about macroeconomic and financial stability. We don't fund investment projects. What we fund is balance of payment needs. So a country is about to crush, we come and we say here is a cushion for you. Get your economy in order. The best value from the fund is to put in place good policies and responsible institutions. So the country on its own can have a good uh trajectory of growth. Uh the IMF works with all countries. All 191 countries go through what we call article 4 consultation. It is a technical term of taking the vital sides of uh each economy. Big, small, rich, poor, they all need to disclose to the fund. But both but where the economies are.新兴市场领导力与以人为本的政策
没错。阿贾伊·班加（AJ Banga）来自印度，他执掌着世界银行。您来自保加利亚，执掌着国际货币基金组织。这两大重要机构都由来自新兴市场和发展中经济体的人士领导，这是否有什么深层含义？我认为这是一个非常积极的发展，因为世界银行服务于谁？新兴市场和发展中经济体。那么，国际货币基金组织最大的资源需求方又是谁？同样是新兴市场和发展中经济体。我确实认为，阿贾伊和我都能理解其中的艰辛，这有助于我们更好地驾驭这些机构。但最重要的是，它带来了对改革影响人民生活的同理心。我给我的员工的信息是：政策是为了人民。它们不是为了书本，也不是为了议会。它们是为了改善人民的生活。在我看来，这是我能为国际货币基金组织带来的最大贡献。
Original English
Absolutely. AJ Banga, he's from India. He runs the World Bank. You're from Bulgaria. You run the the IMF. uh should we read anything into the fact that both these important institutions are run by people from uh emerging and developing markets? I think it is a very positive development because who does the world bank serve? The emerging markets, the developing economies. Um who is the biggest uh demander of resources from the fund emerging markets and developing economies. And I actually think that the fact that both AJ and I understand how tough it could be help us to navigate the institutions better. But above all, it brings this empathy for the impact reforms have on people. And my message to my staff is policies are for people. They're not for the books. They're not for the parliaments. They are to improve lives of people. And that is to my mind the best I bring uh to the fund.IMF的所有权、资金来源与美国影响力
谁拥有国际货币基金组织？是其191个成员国。很有趣，我们的资金来源是什么？我们就像一家储蓄银行。各国向基金承诺提供资源，然后我们贷出这笔钱。我们收回贷款时会附带利息，然后我们将资金返还给那些资助我们的国家。换句话说，我们不向纳税人寻求捐款。我们要求各国信任我们管理其资源。而它的妙处在于，我们能非常迅速地做很多事情，因为我们无需四处奔走请求资金。
我们今天在华盛顿特区，因为这里是国际货币基金组织的总部。那么，国际货币基金组织在多大程度上以美国为中心呢？美国是我们最大的成员国，他们持有国际货币基金组织超过17%的份额，从这个意义上说，他们是唯一拥有否决权（Veto Power: 阻止某项决策通过的权利）的成员国。我们做出的最重要决定需要至少85%的投票支持。因此，如果美国在重要决策上不同意，那么这些决策就无法通过。从这个意义上说，我们当然与美国进行了大量接触，但我们是一个由191个成员国组成的机构。对我们国际货币基金组织的工作人员来说，重要的是我们是否通过分析和在国家遇到困难时提供缓冲，为世界经济的更好运作做出了有意义的贡献。
Original English
Who owns IMF? The 191 members of the IMF. Very interesting. How are we funded? We are like a savings bank. Countries commit resources to the fund. Then we lend this money. We are paid back with interest and we pay back those who fund us. In other words, we do not ask taxpayers for contributions. We ask countries to trust us with the management of their resources and uh the beauty of it is that u we can do a lot very quickly because we don't have to go knock on doors and say please can you we need more money can you please fund us we are today in Washington DC right because this is where you are headquartered so how US- ccentric is the fund well the uh US is our largest um member they hold over 17% of the quarters of the IMF and in that sense they are the only member that has v2 power. Uh we have the most important decisions we take require over 85% at least 85% voting. So if the US is not on board on important decisions uh then uh they cannot uh happen and in that sense we engage a lot with us of course but we are an institution of 191 members and for for us for the staff of the the fund what matters is are we making a meaningful contribution to a better working of the world economy. through our analysis and by cushioning countries when they are in trouble.全球经济现状与韧性
我们来谈谈世界经济，克里斯塔利娜，世界上可能没有人比您更了解全球经济的统计数据了。那么，您目前如何解读世界经济的状况？比我们担心的要好，但比它本应达到的要差。全球经济在应对从新冠疫情（COVID-19: 由新型冠状病毒引起的传染病）开始的多次冲击时，展现出了显著的韧性。我们预计今年和明年的增长率将超过3%。尽管地缘政治、技术、人口结构和气候等转型力量正在冲击我们，世界经济仍在持续增长。但首先，这种增长速度太慢，无法满足世界各地人民对更美好生活的期望。回顾新冠疫情之前，平均增长率是3.7%。现在，它徘徊在**3%**左右。其次，世界经济的韧性尚未得到充分考验。我的意思是，我们尚不完全清楚这些多重转型力量未来将如何考验它。但它现在正在接受考验，对吗？完全正确，它正在接受考验。那么，为什么它比我们想象的更具韧性呢？
Original English
Let's touch on the the world economy because Christina probably nobody in the world has got better statistics than you about the state of the world. So how do you read the state of the world just now? Better than we feared worse than it needs to be. Um, we have a world economy that has proven to be remarkably resilient to the multiple shocks that have been hitting us starting with COVID. We are projecting over 3% growth this year and next. despite the transformational forces that are hitting us um geopolitics, technology, demography, climate, we have a world that continues to grow. But first, this growth is too slow to meet the aspirations of people around the world for better lives. M when we look back before COVID the average growth rate was 3.7%. Now it lingers around three. Second we have a world economy that has not been really fully tested for its resilience. And what I mean is that uh we don't quite know how this multiple forces of transformation may test it in the future. But it's being tested now, right? Totally. It's being tested. And why is it so why is it more resilient than we thought?经济韧性的三大支柱
实际上有三个原因。这是一个很好的问题，我和我的同事们对此进行了深入思考和讨论。第一个原因是，在过去的几十年里，由于过去发生的危机，特别是全球金融危机（Global Financial Crisis: 2008年爆发的全球性金融危机），各国建立了更强大的机构，并实施了健全的政策。这不仅适用于许多新兴经济体，也适用于发达经济体。我们拥有独立的中央银行，许多国家都有财政规则，即你不能花你没有的钱。我们的税收系统或多或少能够提供必要的公共资源。这是第一个原因。
第二个原因是，在过去的几十年里，我们还看到许多国家政府逐渐退出经济运营，让私营部门来承担这项工作。在快速变化的时代，私营部门更加敏捷，更具韧性。当特朗普总统（Donald Trump）宣布征收关税时，私营部门做了什么？他们争相在关税生效前购买商品，以便缓冲其业务免受特定冲击的影响。
第三个原因是，最近的贸易冲击实际上比我们担心的要小。4月2日宣布的关税总额约为23%。而现在，实际水平在17%到18%之间。当我们看实际征收的关税时，更像是8%到9%。最重要的是，我们担心的是什么？我们担心所有国家都会效仿。也就是说，如果美国征收关税，其他国家也会对美国和其他国家征收关税，但这种以牙还牙（Tit-for-Tat: 指报复性行为，一方采取行动后，另一方也采取类似行动）的情况并未发生。我知道有人说我们应该采取更积极的反击措施。但事实是，如果真的发生了那种以牙还牙的反击，全球增长将遭受更剧烈的负面影响。
您非常关注的问题之一是债务水平，您曾表示，例如美国应该尽快解决赤字问题。您为什么如此担心高债务水平？
Original English
Three reasons actually. Great question. I thought a lot about it. My colleagues and I have debated this. First reason over the last decades because of the crisis that hit in the past especially the u uh global financial uh crisis countries have built stronger institutions and they have put in place sound policies and that applies to many countries in the emerging uh world but also uh in advanced economies. We have independent central banks. We have in many countries fiscal rules. You cannot spend money you don't have. Uh we have tax systems that are more or less delivering the public uh resource necessary. Reason number one. Reason number two, over the last decades, we also have seen in many many countries the state moving out of running the economy and letting private sector do the job. At a time of rapid changes, private sector is more agile. It is more resilient. What what uh we saw when um um President Trump announced tariffs, what did the private sector do? They rushed, they bought goods before the tariffs hit so they can cushion their uh businesses against that particular shock. And the third reason is um in fact the latest shock, the trade shock has proven to be smaller than we feared it may be. So on April 2nd the total announced tariffs were around 23%. When we look at the level now 17 18%. And when we look at what is being collected as tariffs more like 8 9%. Most importantly what did we worry about? We worried that all countries would say me too. So you us puts tariffs I'm going to put tariffs to the US to others and that tit for tat did not happen. I know there are people who are saying oh we should have gone aggressively and hit back. Truth is if we were to have that tit for tat hitting back uh we would have seen much uh more dramatic negative impact uh on global growth. M one of the things you are quite vocal about is the debt levels and you say that uh you know for instance the US should deal with the with the deficit sooner rather than later. Why why uh are you so concerned about the high debt level?高债务风险与财政整顿
因为偿还债务，尤其是在利率不再为零甚至为负的情况下，会占用原本可以用于其他生产性目的的资金。用于偿债的钱，就无法用于基础设施建设、为人工智能（Artificial Intelligence: 模拟人类智能的机器系统）做准备，也无法用于教育民众以适应快速变化的世界。而且，当债务水平非常高时，你实际上就没有了缓冲空间。那么，当下一次冲击来临时，你该怎么办？
在新冠疫情期间，我曾呼吁各国政府和企业：花钱，保护你们的人民，保护你们的企业，保留收据，但要花钱。那时有财政空间，也有货币政策空间，这是可行的。但今天，这已不再可能。实际上，我们面临的一个大问题是，当各国实施各种计划来支持人民和企业，而当这些支持不再需要时，却很难将其撤回。所以我们主张财政整固（Fiscal Consolidation: 政府通过削减开支或增加税收来减少财政赤字和公共债务的政策），要缓慢、循序渐进地进行，但要为下一次冲击做好准备。我不知道下一次冲击会是什么，但我知道一定会有，我们需要有能力去应对。
当您撰写演讲稿，要求美国“整顿内务”时，您是否会觉得应该谨慎一些？毕竟他们拥有国际货币基金组织17%的份额。幸运的是，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）与我意见一致。他认为他们需要将赤字降至3%。我们就是为了向权力说真话而存在的。
Original English
Because uh servicing debt especially when interest rates are no more zero or even negative takes away money from other productive purposes. What is being spent to service that is not spent for infrastructure, for getting ready for AI, for educating people for a much faster changing world and because when you have very high level of debt, you really have no buffers. So when the next shock comes, what do you do? Yeah. In the uh uh time of COVID, I was out there telling governments and businesses spend, protect your people, protect your uh businesses, keep the receipts, but spend at that time there was fiscal space, there was monetary policy space that was possible. Today not possible. Actually one big problem we we face and when I talk about the world is doing well but not perfectly um is that when countries put in place various programs to support people and businesses and they don't need them anymore it's very difficult to take them back. So we are saying fiscal consolidation do it slowly do it gradually but get your house in good order for the next shock to come. I don't know what it would be. I just know there would be something for which we need to have the capacity uh to cope. When you write your speech and you tell the United States to get the house in order, do you think that perhaps I should be a bit careful? They own 17% of the bank and uh well fortunately um the Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, he's on the same page. He thinks that they need to bring down the deficit to 3%. Uh and uh you know I we are paid to speak truth to power.通胀展望与气候风险
通货膨胀现在得到控制了吗？它已经下降了。是的，我们看到反通胀（Disinflation: 通货膨胀率下降，但仍为正值）趋势正朝着正确方向持续。当然，关税正在给美国的物价带来压力。到目前为止，这种影响尚不明显。原因有二：一是商品预先部署，二是盈利公司能够消化部分关税成本。我们不知道这种情况在未来几个月或明年会如何发展。因此，我们尚未准备好宣布胜利，说通货膨胀已在各地消失。
欧洲的情况如何？欧洲做得很好，成功将通货膨胀控制在目标范围内。气候风险是金融风险吗？当然是。它体现在两个方面。首先，如果你的投资组合中积累了容易受到气候冲击或政策变化影响的资产，那么你的资产可能会遭受意想不到的重大损失。其次，我们已经看到一些国家和社区更加脆弱。如果你现在生活在菲律宾（Philippines）或越南（Vietnam），你很可能会受到严重打击。这种对经济、社区和人民的影响会转化为金融风险。国际货币基金组织已经做了大量工作，深入思考与经济快速变化（顺便说一句，现在看来脱碳（Decarbonization: 减少碳排放，特别是二氧化碳，以应对气候变化）进程正在放缓）或气候冲击高发对企业、家庭和金融系统造成影响相关的金融稳定风险。
Original English
Absolutely. Do you think inflation is under control now? It it has gone down. Yes. We see the uh trend in disinflation continuing in the right direction. Uh of course tariffs are putting pressure on prices in the United States. So far that was mute. One because there was prepositioning of goods. Two because companies profitable they could eat up some of the tariffs. We don't know how this would continue in the next months in the next year. Uh and for this reason we are not quite yet ready to say victory. Inflation is uh uh gone everywhere. Is climate in Europe? It's okay. Europe has done a very good job in bringing inflation to target. Is climate risk a financial risk? Of course it is. Of course it is in two ways. First, if you accumulate in your portfolio assets that are vulnerable either to cl climate shocks or to change in policy, then you can see um unexpected significant losses on your on your assets. Um and the second is because we see already that some countries and some communities are more vulnerable. Uh if you live in the Philippines or Vietnam these days very likely you would be hit dramatically. That hit on the economy and on communities on people it translates into financial uh risk. We have done quite a lot of work at the fund to think through financial stability risks that are related to either the economy changing rapidly uh which by the way seems to be now a slower process to decarbonization or because of the uh uh high uh propensity of climate shocks that affect um uh businesses and households and affect the financial system.AI对世界的影响：IMF视角
继续我们正在讨论的变化，人工智能。你可以从许多不同的角度来看待它，但如果从国际货币基金组织的角度来看，它正在如何影响世界？从国际货币基金组织的角度，我们关注三件事。首先，我们关注各国是否为人工智能做好了准备。我们创建了一个人工智能准备度指数（AI Preparedness Index: 衡量各国为应对人工智能发展所做准备的指标），该指数从四个方面对174个国家进行排名。第一是数字基础设施：你是否能快速接入人工智能？第二是劳动力市场灵活性和技能：经济是否足够灵活以快速适应？第三是创新是否正在流动：人工智能算法是否进入了医疗保健、交通运输以及经济的其他领域？第四个方面被证明是最困难的：监管和伦理。
那么，当我们对各国进行排名时，我们看到了什么？发达经济体做得更好。实际上，榜单前三名是新加坡（Singapore）、丹麦（Denmark）和美国（United States）。你可以把它们排成不同的第一、第二、第三，但它们是榜单的顶端。你再看榜单底部的发展中经济体，它们绝大多数都还没有准备好。
Original English
Continuing on with with the changes we're seeing, um AI um now you can look you can look at that through many different lenses, but if we look at it through the IMF lens, what how is it impacting the world? Well, from an a uh IMF lens, we look at three things. First, we look at our countries ready for AI. uh we created an index on AI preparedness that ranks 174 countries on four things. One, digital infrastructure. Can you quickly tap into AI? Two, labor market flexibility skills. Is the economy flexible enough to adapt quickly? Three, is innovation flowing? So you have AI um algorithms do they go into health care into transportation into the rest of the economy and for the fourth prove to be the most difficult regulation and ethics. So when we rank countries what do we see advanced economies do much better actually on the top of this list are three countries um Singapore, Denmark, United States. They kind of you can put them in in uh different one two three but this is the top of the list. You look at the bottom developing economies uh they in their vast majority they're not they're not ready.AI对生产力与就业的冲击
国家尚未准备好意味着什么？这意味着它们将无法抓住人工智能带来的生产力提升。这是我们关注的第二件事：人工智能可能如何影响增长、生产力和经济增长？你知道，对此的看法非常多样，从极度乐观者到极度悲观者都有。我们持中立态度。我们认为人工智能可以显著提升生产力和增长，带来大约0.1%到0.8%的额外增长。请记住，当前的增长速度很慢。如果人工智能能帮助我们，那将对人类带来巨大的益处。
但我们也在关注这种影响将如何体现在劳动力市场。在我看来，这是一个非常令人担忧的问题，因为我们评估，在未来几年内，富裕国家60%的工作岗位将受到人工智能的影响，要么得到增强变得更高效，要么发生改变，要么被淘汰。在全球范围内，平均约40%的工作岗位会受到影响，而在低收入国家，这一比例为26%。无论你选择哪个百分比，这都像一场海啸冲击着劳动力市场。我们为此做好准备了吗？
作为一名理想主义者，因为您在某种程度上确实是一位理想主义者，我猜人工智能将使世界变得更加不平等。所以，您会怎么做？这就是我们看到的问题，我们担心的是，由于人工智能，国家内部和国家之间都可能出现分化。我们能做什么？我们唯一能做的就是帮助各国做好准备，更快地行动，利用人工智能的优势，同时也要思考人工智能的分配影响，因为它并非注定要分裂社会。
Original English
What does it mean they're not ready? It means that uh they're not going to be able to uh capture the productivity enhancement that comes with AI. And this is the second thing we look at. How is AI affecting uh potentially growth, productivity and growth? You know that the views are very diverse from the ultra optimist to the ultra pessimist. We are somewhere in the middle. We we think that AI can lift up productivity and growth substantially somewhere between 0.1 and 0.8% 8% of additional growth. Remember growth is slow. Growth is slow. That is high. Uh if AI helps help us, that would be of tremendous uh benefit to humanity. But then we are looking also at how is this impact going to come through the labor market. And there it is a very to my mind troubling story because what we assess is that over the next couple of years in rich countries 60% of jobs will be impacted by AI either enhanced becoming more productive changed or eliminated in uh globally on average about 40% in lowincome countries 26%. %. You take any one of these percentages, this is like a tsunami hitting the labor market and are we ready for that? And but as an idealist uh because you are in a way an idealist I guess uh and this will make the world more unequal. So what do you So that is the problem that that we see what what we what we worry about is that both within countries and across countries we may see divergence because of AI. What can we do? The only thing we can do is to help countries prepare to move faster, take advantage of AI and also think about the distributional impact of AI because it is not given that AI should be dividing societies.AI的社会潜力与国际合作
也许人工智能可以解决社会问题，但这只有在我们做好准备的情况下才能实现。我必须说，我确实相信人性的美好。我曾担任欧盟（European Union: 欧洲国家组成的政治经济联盟）的人道主义事务专员五年。我到过这个星球上最悲惨的地方，从海地地震（Haiti earthquake: 2010年海地发生的毁灭性地震）到叙利亚战争（Syria war: 2011年至今的叙利亚内战），再到日本的三重灾难（Triple Disaster in Japan: 2011年日本地震、海啸和核泄漏）。每到一处，最让我感动的是人们如何互相帮助。绝大多数人类都是善良、富有同情心的人，只有一小部分人非常愤怒和喧嚣。我认为我们需要找到这种调子，倾听这些善良的声音，因为大多数人都是真正的好人。是的，这就是我成为理想主义者的原因，我相信人性的美好。
我同意您的观点，但让我有点惊讶的是，没有更多的国家在提升本国人工智能水平方面做出协调一致的努力。现在冰岛（Iceland）刚刚启动了这样一个项目，瑞典（Sweden）也有类似的项目正在进行。难道不应该有更多的国家投入大量资金和精力来做这件事吗？我认为，那些拥有比较优势，例如廉价能源（最好是可再生能源），以及在研发方面投入大量资金的国家，有责任推动前沿发展，然后当然要与世界其他国家分享其成果。
这就是观察我们星球上合作情况的有趣之处。我有一个可能会让你惊讶的观察：自从我们进入一个地缘政治对抗日益加剧的世界以来，我在国际货币基金组织的工作中看到了更多的合作意愿。为什么？因为现在人们意识到合作不再是理所当然的。我们过去常常认为合作是理所当然的。现在，至少在国际货币基金组织的讨论中，我们不能再将其视为理所当然，我看到了更多的成熟和倾听彼此意见的意愿。这种趋势能否持续下去，并转化为全球范围内的强劲合作，还有待观察，但它确实存在。
Original English
Maybe AI can solve problems in societies but only if we are ready. And and I should say that I do believe in the best uh of uh in people Uh I was um for 5 years a humanitarian commissioner for the European Union. I went to the most tragic locations on this planet from the Kiti earthquake to the Syria war to the triple disaster in Japan. Every place I would go what would impress me the most is how people help other people. Majority of human race are really good compassionate people and there is a minority that is very angry and very loud and I think that we need to find that tune to listen to these voices of goodness because most people are genuinely good people. Yeah, that's why I am idealist. I believe in the goodness. So I agree humanity I agree with that but one of the things that surprised me a bit is that not more countries are making a a concerted effort in lifting the whole AI level in the countries. Now Iceland has just launched such a project. There is something going on in Sweden which is you know a bit similar. But shouldn't more countries really put a lot of money and effort into this? I think that um uh countries that have the um comparative advantage, cheap energy, preferably renewable energy, um high level of investment in research and development, they have responsibility to move the frontier and then of course u share what they get with the rest of the world. And this is where it would be interesting to see what happens with cooperation on our planet. So here is an observation that may may surprise you. Since we got into a more geopolitically confrontational world, I see in my work at the IMF more appetite to cooperate. Why? Because now people realize they cannot take that for granted. We used to take it for granted. Of course, we cooperate because we cannot take it anymore for granted at least in the discussions uh uh at the IMF. I see more maturity, more willingness to listen to each other. uh would it last would it translate into strong cooperation globally is to be seen but it's there国际货币基金组织：合作之岛与AI投资
我怀疑国际货币基金组织是少数能看到这种合作的地方之一，因为它并不常见。您说得很有趣，我们的一位成员曾发表过一个有趣的评论，他说国际货币基金组织就像一个“合作之岛”。这确实是事实。为什么会这样呢？我对此有一个理论。首先，因为我和我的同事以及董事会确实付出了巨大的努力，来维系世界的团结。实际上，我给成员国传递了一个简单的信息。他们来参加年度会议，来参加春季会议。我的信息是：把你们的贸易战、冷战、热战都留在会议室外面。来到这里，让我们谈谈世界经济的健康状况，以及我们能做些什么来增强这种健康。到目前为止，这很有效。
我们是否正处于人工智能泡沫之中？我认为我们确实有点担心，人工智能领域的大规模投资正在冲击这个市场板块。但我们必须认识到，公司是盈利的，它们正在通过人工智能赚钱。换句话说，这种投资的增加是由盈利能力所支撑的。会有调整吗？很可能，是的，仅仅因为热情已经将估值推高到如此紧张的程度。但这会把我们带到一个非常糟糕的境地吗？我对此表示怀疑，因为你看到人工智能正在转化为有消费者、并能盈利销售的市场产品。
Original English
well I I suspect IMF is one of the few places where we see it then because it's not very common I actually you know it's very interesting you're saying that one of our members made an interesting comment saying well the IMF is like a a island of cooperation uh and it is true so Why is that so? I have a theory on that. One, because we actually uh make a huge effort, my colleagues, myself, our board of directors to keep the world together. Actually, I I I had a simple message to the membership. They come for annual meetings. They come for spring meetings. My message is you leave your trade war, your cold war, your hot war outside of this room. You come here. Let's talk about the health of the world economy and what we can do to strengthen that health. So far that works. Yeah. Are we in the middle of an AI bubble? Well, I think we are worried a little bit that the um massive investments in AI uh are hitting this segment of markets. But we have to recognize that companies are profitable. they are making money on AI. In other words, this increase in investment is justified by uh profitability. Uh will there be a correction? Most likely uh some yes, just because enthusiasm has pushed valuations that are now so stretched. Would that take us to a very bad place? I doubt it again because you see how AI is translating into marketable products that have consumers and are being sold for profit. Sold for profit.AI的变革力量与IMF的实践
所以您认为这是一个积极的泡沫，因为它带来了变化。我认为人工智能是一种令人难以置信的、快速变化的变革力量。它太不可思议了。您在国际货币基金组织内部是否也使用了人工智能？当然，我们有多个针对基金会特定需求的人工智能产品。我们有IDA（IDA: 国际货币基金组织内部的AI工具，辅助日常工作），帮助我们完成工作。在我们的年度会议上，我们有Sammy（Sammy: 国际货币基金组织会议的AI导览助手），为访客提供指引。我们当然也使用Copilot（Copilot: AI编程助手，提供代码建议）。我不知道您是否使用过，但我发现它非常有用。我们还要求我们的专业人士社区将我们与类似组织进行比较。到目前为止，一切顺利。国际货币基金组织在快速适应人工智能世界方面处于领先地位。
您对能源转型有什么看法？我确实有看法。我认为，如果说人工智能带来了一个问题，那与其说是估值过高，不如说是它偏离了脱碳的道路。这会是一个巨大的转变吗？让我们拭目以待。我希望不会。有一点非常清楚，那就是气候变化正在发生，它是真实存在的。我们需要做两件事：尽力减少影响并适应它。对于我们国际货币基金组织来说，这个讨论有一个方面，您在问题中也提到了，那就是气候何时成为宏观经济和金融稳定的一个因素？一旦它成为因素，我们就必须将其纳入考量。如果我们不将气候冲击的风险纳入像牙买加（Jamaica）这样的国家的预算计划和经济目标中，我们就无法很好地完成工作。事实上，牙买加就是一个很好的例子，国际货币基金组织在政策层面介入，帮助该国现在和未来都能更好地抵御气候冲击。
Original English
So you you're in the camp which you think is a positive bubble. I because it changes. I think I I think I think it is an incredible rapidly changing force of transformation. Incredible. Do you manage to use it in the fund? Oh, of course we have um u multiple fund specific AI products. We have uh IDA that helps us do our our work. For our annual meetings, we have Sammy. Sammy guides our visitors. Um we of course use copilot. I don't know whether you use it but you know I I find it super helpful. And uh we are asking um our community of professionals to measure us vis similar organizations. So far so good. the IMF is up there in a in a strong position of how we uh quickly adapt to a world of AI. Have you got a view on the energy transition? Well, I I do. I think the um um if there is one issue that AI creates, it's not so much the stretch valuations, it is a departure from a path towards decarbonization. Yeah. Um would that be a um massive uh shift? Uh let's see. I hope no. Uh one thing that is very clear is that um uh climate uh change is happening. It is real. Uh we need to do two things. Try to reduce the impact as much as we can and adapt to it. M uh and I think the um uh for for us at the IMF there is one aspect of of this conversation which is and you brought it in your questions uh when is climate a factor in macroeconomic and financial uh stability and when it is we have to take it into account. We cannot do our job well with a country like uh Jamaica if we are not integrating in their budget plans and in their um economic uh objectives the risks of climate uh shocks and actually Jamaica is a good example where the fund engaged on the policy side to help the country be more resilient to climate shocks now and in the future.IMF使命：专注与妥协
现在美国表示国际货币基金组织已经偏离了其核心的稳定使命。您如何回应这一说法？首先，我们确实必须始终注意我们资源的投向。当任何成员国，当然包括美国，告诉我们要小心，我们可能涉足了太多领域时，我非常尊重他们的意见。我们是一个小机构，大约有4000名员工，但我们是一个绩效相当高的机构，所以每个人都希望我们做更多的事情，而且是为他们做不同的事情。因此，我们必须保持专注的纪律。我想说，当我们审视国际货币基金组织为世界所做的工作成果时，我们做得相当不错。
您个人是否需要为了维持和平，在您所信仰的事情上做出妥协？我们是一个成员制组织。我在这里是为了帮助成员国在一个日益复杂的世界中共同合作。所以，我所信仰的固然重要，但更重要的是我的成员国对我们的需求，那才是我的指路明灯。
Original English
Now the US is saying that IMF has drifted from its core mission of stability. How do you resp how do you respond to that statement? We we one it is true that we can we have to be always mindful where we put our resources and I am very respectful when any of our members of course uh US included tell us be careful you may be venturing into too many uh directions we are a small institution we are about 4,000 people we are a fairly high performing institution so everybody wants us to do more. Yeah. Yeah. And different things for them. So we have to have the discipline to stay uh focused and I would say uh when I look at the um delivery from the fund what we are doing for the world that yeah we are doing pretty well. Do you personally have to compromise uh when it comes to things that you believe in in order to keep keep the peace? We are a membership organization. I'm here to help the members work together, collaborate in a world which is more complex these days. So, uh what I believe of course matters, but what matters even more is what my membership needs from us and that is my guiding star.疫情应对与国际合作的挑战
现在这种环境比新冠疫情时期压力更大吗？我认为新冠疫情时期压力也很大。想象一下，你负责世界经济的健康，而它突然戛然而止。是的。我认为今天不同的是，争取合作需要付出更多的努力。我清楚地记得，在新冠疫情期间，我们召集了成员国的紧急会议，以找出应对之策，并提出了非常强有力的回应。我为国际货币基金组织所做的一切感到非常自豪。
我们部署了大约1万亿美元的贷款，并通过特别提款权（Special Drawing Rights: 国际货币基金组织创设的一种国际储备资产）分配，向储备注入了6500亿美元，这为许多国家提供了支持，我们做得非常迅速。当世界卫生组织（World Health Organization: 联合国专门机构，负责协调全球卫生事务）宣布新冠疫情时，我们在一周内向吉尔吉斯共和国（Kyrgyz Republic）发放了第一笔紧急贷款。但最重要的是，我们帮助各国明确了政策路径。当时，政策路径是：货币政策宽松，即获得资金；财政政策，即国家资金的流动。这些都是以协调一致的方式进行的，这与各国各自为政相比，产生了巨大的差异，世界各国共同采取强有力的协调应对措施。
您现在即将开始在国际货币基金组织的第二个任期。您对第一个任期中最引以为傲的是什么？
Original English
Is this a more stressful environment than CO? I think co was pretty stressful. Uh imagine you are you are responsible for the health of the world economy and it comes to a screeching stop. Yeah. Uh I think what is uh what is um different today is that getting uh cooperation uh takes more more effort. M uh when we had co I remember vividly we called emergency meetings of our members to figure out what to do uh and we came up with very strong response. I'm very proud of what the fund has done. Mhm. We deployed about a trillion dollars in lending and through the allocation of special drawing right 650 billion injection in reserves that helped to put a a a floor under the the feet of many many many countries and we did it very quickly. Um when COVID was announced by uh the World Health Organization, in one week we dispersed our first emergency loan to uh the Kygis Republic. But most importantly, we helped countries to see what is the policy path and at that point what was the policy path. Monetary policy accumula uh uh accommodation is the access to to to money. Fiscal policy is the uh flow of money from from the state and that was done in a coordinated manner makes a huge difference whether individual countries do their individual thing or the world comes together with a strong uh coordinated uh response. You're now entering your second term at IMF. What are you the most proud of from your first term?首个任期的骄傲：团结与团队
我对新冠疫情的应对感到非常自豪，但实际上，我第一个任期中最引以为傲的是，尽管面临诸多反对力量，我们仍能保持成员国的团结。以俄罗斯入侵乌克兰（Russia's invasion of Ukraine: 2022年俄罗斯对乌克兰发动的全面入侵）为例，国际货币基金组织为乌克兰（Ukraine）制定了一项计划，该计划得到了除俄罗斯之外所有成员国的支持。这种为了增强世界经济而凝聚集体力量的能力，让我深感自豪。
我也为国际货币基金组织的员工感到非常自豪。他们都是杰出的人才。你们知道国际货币基金组织是如何运作的。我们争论，我们为各自的立场而奋斗，然后我们达成一个决定。一旦做出决定，就大局已定。我们都朝着同一个方向前进。这就像一支由我领导的小型经济军队。
您在20世纪50年代和60年代在铁幕（Iron Curtain: 冷战时期将欧洲分为东西方阵营的政治意识形态界限）后的保加利亚长大。我只是在想，关于军队之类的事情。您的成长经历是怎样的？
Original English
Well, co I'm very proud of, but actually what I'm most proud of my first uh term is keeping the membership together despite of the many forces against it. Uh take u Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The fund came with a program for Ukraine that is supported by all our members with the exception of uh Russia. and that ability to bring the collective for this purpose of strengthening the world economy that I'm very proud of. I'm very proud of the staff of the fund. These are fantastic people. You know how the fund operates. We argue and we fight our individual positions and then we come to a decision. When we come to a decision, that's it. We all march in the same direction. There is u it's like a little economic army that I'm in charge of. You grew up in Bulgaria in the 50s and the 60s and uh behind the iron curtain and I was just kind of thinking about you know armies and and things like that. Just how was your upbringing like?贫困中的富足童年
我很幸运能在一个充满爱的家庭中长大，一个普通的家庭。物质上我们一无所有，但我们拥有彼此。您说普通，但您的父母很聪明，对吗？是的，他们很聪明，但我母亲在一家商店做售货员。我父亲是一名道路技术员，他非常出色，被提升到工程师的职位，但他们都不是党员。换句话说，他们不属于当时的精英阶层。但我回到家时，我们住在二楼，我会听到我父亲和母亲唱歌。我们贫穷到，直到我二十多岁时才拥有收音机。所以我们唱歌，那真是太美好了。
我父母给予我的一件事，让我永远感激不尽，那就是永不放弃的鼓励。我曾有志于学习新闻学，但这未能实现，因为我的家庭不是党员家庭。但他们鼓励我学习政治经济学和社会学。社会学非常有趣，他们总是说：“你知道，你想成为什么样的人，就能成为什么样的人。”所以，我就成了今天的我。
不用说，我的父母在我大学毕业时，在我获得博士学位时，都非常自豪。我是我们大家庭中第一个获得博士学位的人。我只有这些美好的回忆，关于我在物质上贫穷，但在情感和教育上富足的成长经历。
Original English
I was very fortunate to be uh a kid in a loving family. ordinary family. Materially we had nothing but we had each other. And I You say ordinary, they were you had quite clever parents, right? Well, they were they were clever, but my mother was uh uh worked in a shop as a um shop assistant. My father was a road technician who was so good that he got promoted to be in a position of an engineer, not party members. In other words, not part of the elite of these days. Uh but I would be coming home and I would we lived on the first floor and I would hear my father and my mother singing. We had so much nothing that uh we didn't have a radio until I think I was in my 20s. So we sang and that was wonderful. I um uh one thing that my parents gave me that I am forever grateful uh to them is the encouragement to kind of never give up. Um I had um the ambition to study journalism. That didn't happen because my family was not a party family. Uh but they kind of encouraged me to study political economy and sociology. Sociology was great fun and they would always say, you know, you can be anything you want to be. So, here I am. Needless to say, Needless to say, my my parents were very proud when I graduated from university, when I got my PhD, the first in our extended family with the PhD uh degree. And u uh you know I have only these wonderful memories of u uh growing up materially poor but emotionally and in terms of education rich.改变人生的关键抉择
从一个没有收音机的童年，到今天坐在国际货币基金组织这个出色的工作室里，成为世界上最有影响力的女性之一，您认为最重要的决定和转折点是什么？我认为最重要的决定是我决定去征服我成长环境之外的世界。我在戈尔巴乔夫（Mikhail Gorbachev: 苏联最后一任领导人，推行改革开放政策）时期去了伦敦经济学院（London School of Economics）。戈尔巴乔夫上台后，他启动了什么？开放（Glasnost: 戈尔巴乔夫时期苏联的开放政策，旨在增加政府透明度）和改革（Perestroika: 戈尔巴乔夫时期苏联的经济和政治改革）。开放意味着所有前社会主义国家的人都可以直接申请西方的奖学金。
所以在七个月内，我学会了足够的英语，获得了英国文化协会（British Council: 英国推广其文化和教育机会的国际组织）的奖学金，并去了伦敦经济学院。这改变了我的生活，因为当我1987-1988年回到保加利亚时，砰！旧体制崩溃了。我为保加利亚学生编写了第一本微观经济学教材，这让我获得了很高的学术地位。然后我去了斐济（Fiji）担任教授，在那个年代，想象一下一个保加利亚人远赴斐济。所以，我身上那种冒险精神，那种渴望看世界的强烈愿望。但这种精神从何而来？毕竟，并不是很多人都有那种“征服世界”的态度。
Original English
What have been the the most important kind of decisions and points from growing up without a radio to sitting here in this fantastic studio at the IMF. you know the and being one of the most powerful women in the world. I think the most important decisions were me deciding to conquer the world outside of where I grew up. I went to um London School of Economics during Gorbachov's time. So Gorbachovs comes to power. What did he start? Glasnus and Paris Striker. Glasnus meant that in all former socialist countries we were allowed to apply directly for scholarships to the west. So in seven months I learned English enough to get a British council scholarship and go to London School of Economics. changed my life because uh when I came back that was 8788 when I came back to Bulgaria boom the system collapsed and I wrote the first microeconomics the first microeconomics textbooks for Bulgarian students that put me in a high academic position then I went to be a professor in Fiji which in these days just imagine somebody from Bulgaria going all the way to Fiji. So that adventurous nature that I had, that incredible appetite to see the world. But where did that come from? But I mean not not many people uh have uh you know conquer the world uh attitude.革命精神与积极心态
这是一个有趣的故事。我的父亲来自一个非常显赫的保加利亚革命家庭。因此，我可以追溯到14世纪的家族起源，这在土耳其统治时期是非常罕见的。这意味着我们家中有一种革命精神。我认为这对我有所帮助。此外，我没有告诉您我成长过程中最重要的一点：积极性。我从未听过我的母亲或父亲说：“不，你不能这样做。”
您的精力从何而来？因为我进来时，我问接待员：“嘿，我应该问你们总裁什么？”他说：“你知道吗？你应该问她关于精力的事，因为她精力充沛，真的对我们所有人都有影响。那么，您的精力从何而来？”来自同一个地方，对吗？我的母亲，特别是我的母亲，她活到了92岁。她有着令人难以置信的幽默感和永无止境的精力。那股能量就是从她身上散发出来的。所以，是好的基因。
Original English
So interesting story. My um father comes from a very prominent Bulgarian revolutionary family. So I can trace my origins to the 14th century, something very rare uh because of the Turkish um dominance. And what it meant was that we had this revolutionary spirit in my in our uh household. Um I think that helped me. And also uh I didn't tell you the most important thing in my upbringing, positivity. I've never heard my mother or father to say, "No, you can't do this." What about your energy? Because when I came in here, I asked the receptionist, "Hey, what should I ask your managing director?" And he said, "You know what? You should ask her about the energy because she's got such an energy and it's really, you know, kind of having an impact on us all. So, where does your energy come from?" Same place, right? My my especially my mother uh my mother well lived to be 92. She had incredible sense of humor and never ever ending energy. Uh it just radiated from her. So good jeans.放松方式与人生箴言
您如何放松？我与我的孙辈、孙女、孙子和女儿一起放松。他们是我的宝藏之地。我实际上从他们那里汲取能量。如果您要给他们一条建议，一条他们会在十年后听从的建议，那会是什么？
我希望他们首先要善良，善待彼此，善待他人，富有同情心。我希望他们勇敢。我希望他们充满好奇心，永不满足于已知，而是不断思考他们还能学到什么。实际上，我当时正在和我的孙女聊天，我决定用三个以相同字母开头的词来概括，我提出了三个“C”：好奇心（Curiosity）、勇气（Courage）和同情心（Compassion）。这就是我希望他们成为的样子，她竟然记住了。您知道吗，我认为这三个词完美地概括了您作为一个人和一名专业人士的特质。非常感谢您今天来到这里。谢谢。谢谢。