郁金香狂热:史上首次有记录的金融泡沫
想象一下,你把一套豪宅的钱花在一朵花上。欢迎来到17世纪30年代的荷兰,郁金香在这里成为了世界上第一个有记录的金融泡沫,并给我们留下了关于市场心理的教训,而我们至今仍在忽视这些教训。这些异国情调的土耳其进口花卉在富人中已经很受欢迎,但当一种病毒导致花瓣出现稀有颜色图案时,它们便成为了终极的地位象征。率先开创现代银行业和股票市场的荷兰人,即将被花朵所颠覆。
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Imagine spending the equivalent of a luxury house on a flower. Welcome to the 1630s Netherlands, where tulips became the world's first documented Financial bubble and taught us lessons about Market psychology that we're still ignoring today. These exotic Turkish Imports were already popular among the wealthy, but when a virus caused rare color patterns in the pedals, they became the ultimate status symbol. The Dutch who had pioneered modern Banking and stock markets were about to be undone by flowers.
在1637年的高峰期,一颗名为Semper Augustus(永远的奥古斯都:一种稀有的郁金香品种)的球茎售价高达6000荷兰盾,相当于一名熟练工匠15年的工资。市场超越了实物球茎交易,演变为期货交易(Futures Trading: 一种在未来特定日期以预定价格买卖资产的协议),有些球茎甚至在一天内易手10次,却从未离开土壤。然而,在1637年2月3日,一场例行拍卖没有买家出现。几周之内,价格暴跌90%。荷兰人吸取了教训,建立了世界上第一批金融法规——至少在下一个快速致富计划出现之前是如此。
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At its peak in 1637, a single Seer Augustus bulb sold for 6,000 Florin, equivalent to 15 years salary for a skilled Craftsman. The market evolved Beyond physical bulbs into Futures Trading, with some bulbs Changing Hands 10 times daily without ever leaving the ground. But on February 3rd 1637, a routine auction had no buyers show up. Within weeks, prices crashed 90%. The Dutch learned their lesson, establishing the world's First Financial regulations, well at least until the next get-rich quick scheme came along.
密西西比泡沫:无需实物资产的狂热
说到计划,还记得密西西比泡沫(Mississippi bubble: 18世纪法国因密西西比公司股票过度投机而引发的经济危机)吗?荷兰人至少还有实物花卉可供交易,而法国即将证明,你甚至不需要真实的资产就能摧毁整个经济。到1716年,法国深陷战争债务泥潭,此时一位名叫约翰·劳(John Law: 苏格兰经济学家和赌徒,密西西比公司的创始人)的苏格兰经济学家兼职业赌徒说服了法国摄政王,他有一个绝妙的解决方案。他的计划是:创建一家国家银行,发行纸币,并以一家贸易公司的股份作为支持,该公司拥有开发法国路易斯安那属地的独家权利。想象一下郁金香狂热,但这次是整个殖民地价值的虚构黄金。
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Speaking of schemes, the Mississippi bubble, remember how the Dutch at least had actual flowers to show for their bubble, France was about to prove that you don't even need a real asset to crash an entire economy. By 1716, France was drowning in war debt when John Law, a Scottish Economist and professional Gambler, convinced the French Regent he had a brilliant solution. His plan: create a national Bank issuing paper money backed by shares in a trading company with exclusive rights to exploit France's Louisiana Territory. Think tulip Mania, but with an entire colony's worth of imaginary gold.
密西西比公司(Mississippi Company: 约翰·劳创建的法国贸易公司,拥有路易斯安那殖民地贸易垄断权)的股价在短短两年内从500里弗尔飙升至18000里弗尔。在其巅峰时期,这家公司的市值相当于法国整个GDP(Gross Domestic Product: 国内生产总值,衡量一个国家经济活动的指标)的80%。想象一下,如果今天有一家公司价值20万亿美元。该公司的巴黎办事处变得如此拥挤,以至于当地一个驼背人通过出租自己的背部作为写字台而发了财。随后,投资者开始要求兑换真金白银,而不是纸币。劳拼命印制更多货币,但这只会导致恶性通货膨胀(hyperinflation: 货币供应量急剧增加,导致物价飞涨)。到1720年,股价暴跌97%,法国经济崩溃。劳乔装成女人逃离了国家——这可不是经济学课上教的退出策略。
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The Mississippi company shares skyrocketed from 500 to 18,000 lever in Just 2 years. At its peak, the company was worth 80% of France's entire GDP. Imagine if one company today was worth $20 trillion. The company's Paris offices became so crowded that a local Hunchback made a fortune renting out his back as a writing desk. Then investors started asking for real money instead of paper. Law desperately printed more currency, but that just led to hyperinflation. By 1720, shares crashed 97% and France's economy collapsed. Law fled the country disguised as a woman, not exactly the exit strategy they teach in economics class.
南海泡沫:英国的教训与牛顿的感叹
说到可疑的金融计划,英国当时正密切关注,并认为他们可以做得更好。南海泡沫(South Sea bubble: 18世纪英国因南海公司股票过度投机而引发的经济危机)。如果你认为法国的计划很糟糕,英国人说“等等,看我的”,然后制造了一个更大的灾难。1720年,南海公司(South Sea Company: 英国一家贸易公司,曾试图接管英国国债以换取对南美贸易的垄断权)有一个看似万无一失的计划:接管英国的国债,以换取与南美洲贸易的垄断权。只有一个小问题:西班牙实际上控制着南美洲的贸易,并且正在与英国交战。哎呀!
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Speaking of questionable Financial schemes, England was watching closely and thought they could do even better. South Sea bubble. If you thought the French scheme was bad, the British said hold my tea and created an even bigger disaster. 1720, the south sea company had a seemingly foolproof plan: take over Britain's national debt in exchange for Monopoly rights to trade with South America. Just one tiny problem: Spain actually controlled South American trade and and was at war with Britain. Oops.
但是,当你有营销手段时,谁还需要实际贸易呢?该公司承诺带来超乎想象的财富,甚至向政客赠送股票以推广该股票。直到——嗯,直到加密货币出现,我们才再次看到这种操纵。股价在几个月内从100英镑上涨到1000英镑。连艾萨克·牛顿(Isaac Newton: 英国著名物理学家、数学家和天文学家)也投资了,他说:“我能计算天体的运动,却无法计算人类的疯狂。” 这句话出自这位发现了万有引力的人,他即将体验另一种“坠落”。到1720年9月,股价暴跌90%。后果如此严重,以至于英国政府禁止未经皇家特许状成立新公司,这是世界上第一批市场法规。然而,正如我们将在大约120年后的铁路狂热中看到的那样,法规并不总是能阻止人性。
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But who needs actual trade when you have marketing? The company promised riches Beyond imagination and even gave politicians shares to promote the stock. We wouldn't see that kind of manipulation again until well crypto. Shares Rose from 100 to 1,000 in months. Even Isaac Newton invested saying I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies but not the madness of people. This from the man who discovered gravity about to experience a different kind of falling. By September 1720, the stock crashed 90%. The aftermath was so severe that the British government banned the creation of new companies without Royal Charter, the world's first Market regulations, though as we'll see with Railways in about 120 years, regulations don't always stop human nature.
铁路狂热:新技术与投机泡沫的结合
说到人性,让我们快进,看看当投机与下一个重大技术结合时会发生什么。铁路狂热(Railway Mania: 19世纪40年代英国因铁路建设过度投机而引发的经济泡沫)。从交易虚构的殖民地财富,到至少铁路是真实的。欢迎来到19世纪40年代的英国,工业革命正在改变一切,投资者坚信铺设火车轨道就像印钞票一样。与我们之前的泡沫不同,铁路确实彻底改变了世界。火车可以比任何人想象的更快地运输货物和人员。
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And speaking of human nature, let's fast forward to see what happens when you combine speculation with the next big technology. Railway Mania. From Trading imaginary Colonial riches to well at least Railways were real. Welcome to the 1840s Britain where the Industrial Revolution was transforming everything and investors were convinced that laying train tracks would be like printing money. Unlike our previous bubbles, Railways actually did revolutionize the world. Trains could transport goods and people faster than anyone thought possible.
最初的铁路利润丰厚,以至于投资者争相资助任何有人提出的轨道项目。听起来耳熟吗?我们将在大约150年后在互联网上看到同样的模式。在其巅峰时期,议会在一年内批准了272家铁路公司。轨道提案像孩子用蜡笔画画一样被画在地图上,甚至有一条线路被批准直接穿过温莎城堡。哎呀!1847年,英国人投入铁路的资金比他们与拿破仑作战所花费的还要多。当崩溃来临时,超过一半的拟建铁路从未建成。事实证明,仅仅因为某项事物将改变世界,并不意味着对其的每项投资都会赚钱。互联网泡沫的投资者将以惨痛的方式吸取这个教训,但我们有点超前了。
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The first Railways were so profitable able that investors rushed to fund any track that anyone proposed. Sound familiar? We'll see the same pattern with the internet in about 150 years. At its peak, Parliament approved 272 Railway companies in a single year. Track proposals were drawn on maps like a child with a crayon. One line was even approved to run straight through Windor Castle. Whoops. The British poured more money into Railways in 1847 than they spent fighting Napoleon. When the crash came, over half the proposed Railways were never built. Turns out just because something will change the world doesn't mean every investment in it will make money. The dotom investors would learn this lesson the hard way, but we're getting ahead of ourselves.
大萧条:杠杆与银行危机
说到超前,大萧条(The Great Depression: 20世纪30年代全球范围的严重经济衰退)。当英国人正在吸取他们的铁路教训时,大西洋彼岸的美国正忙着为所有崩溃之母创造完美条件。咆哮的20年代如火如荼,战争结束了,经济蓬勃发展,每个人都坚信股票只会上涨。听起来耳熟吗?到1928年,普通美国人甚至借钱购买股票。银行乐于放贷,让人们只需支付10%的首付就能购买股票。把它想象成抵押贷款,但针对的是股票。这可能会出什么问题呢?
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Speaking of getting ahead of ourselves, the Great Depression. While the British were learning their Railway lessons across the Atlantic, America was busy creating the perfect conditions for the mother of all crack es. The Roaring 20s were in full swing, the war was over, the economy was booming, and everyone was convinced stocks could only go up. Sounds familiar yet? By 1928, ordinary Americans were borrowing money just to buy stocks. Banks were happy to lend, letting people buy shares with just 10% down. Think of it as a mortgage, but for stocks. What could possibly go wrong?
与此同时,可疑的投资信托公司像禁酒令时期(Prohibition)的地下酒吧一样迅速涌现。1929年10月24日,市场动摇了。10月28日,市场下跌。10月29日,黑色星期二(Black Tuesday: 1929年10月29日,美国股市崩盘,标志着大萧条的开始),市场崩溃。道琼斯指数(Dow: 道琼斯工业平均指数,美国股市的重要指标)在两天内下跌了25%,相当于今天的1万亿美元损失。那些借来的股票,银行要求收回资金,迫使投资者不惜一切代价出售。但与我们之前的泡沫不同,这次崩溃感染了整个经济。到1932年,股票价值损失了89%,失业率达到25%,5000家银行倒闭。世界认识到,你不能仅仅让市场自我调节——至少直到20世纪80年代,日本决定尝试一下。
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Meanwhile, sketchy investment trusts were popping up faster than speak easys during prohibition. Our October 24th 1929, the market wobbled. October 28th it fell. October 29th Black Tuesday, it collapsed. The Dow lost 25% in 2 days, equivalent to A1 trillion loss today. Those borrowed shares, Banks wanted their money back, forcing investors to sell at any price. But unlike our previous bubbles, this crash infected the entire economy. By 1932, stocks had lost 89% of their value, unemployment hit 25% and 5,000 Banks collapsed. The world learned you couldn't just let markets regulate themselves, well at least until the 1980s when Japan decided to give it a try.
日本资产泡沫:房地产与股市双重泡沫
日本资产泡沫(Japanese asset bubble: 20世纪80年代末日本股市和房地产市场过度膨胀的现象)。欢迎来到20世纪80年代的日本,他们不满足于一个泡沫,而是同时创造了两个。经济蓬勃发展,以至于专家预测它将超越美国。日本公司正在收购从好莱坞电影公司到洛克菲勒中心的一切。还记得我们早在郁金香危机中提到的市场心理吗?日本股市在80年代飙升了450%,但这与房地产相比简直是小巫见大巫。
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Japanese asset bubble. Welcome to the 1980s Japan where they weren't content with just one bubble, they created two at once. The economy was booming so hard that experts predicted it would overtake America. Japanese companies were buying up everything from Hollywood Studios to the Rockefeller Center. Remember how we mentioned Market psychology way back in the Tulip crisis, the Japanese stock market soared 450% in the 80s, but that was nothing compared to real estate.
东京的房地产变得如此昂贵,以至于皇宫的土地理论上比加利福尼亚州所有的房地产都值钱。东京银座区一平方米30万美元,一个停车位可能要150万美元。一场完美的金融风暴正在酝酿。日本银行以虚高的房地产作为抵押放贷,这些资金又被用来购买更多股票,而股票又被用作更多贷款的抵押品,以购买更多房地产。如果这听起来像一个即将发生的循环问题,那么你识别泡沫的能力正在提高。到1989年,现实终于追赶上来。这次崩溃如此严重,以至于日本经济在30年后仍未完全恢复。他们甚至给它起了一个名字:“失去的十年”(The Lost Decades: 指日本在1990年代经济停滞的时期)。
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Tokyo real estate got so expensive that the grounds of the Imperial Palace were theoretically worth more than all the real estate in California. One square meter in Tokyo's Ginza District $300,000, a parking spot could could cost $1.5 million. The perfect Financial storm was brewing. Japanese Banks were lending money against inflated real estate, which was used to buy more stocks, which were used as collateral for more loans to buy more real estate. If this sounds like a circular problem waiting to happen, well you're getting better at spotting bubbles. By 1989, reality finally caught up. The crash was so severe that Japan's economy still hadn't recovered 30 years later. They even have a a name for it, the Lost decades.
亚洲金融危机:货币挂钩与传染效应
然而,当日本还在应对宿醉时,亚洲其他地区即将吸取一些惨痛的教训。亚洲金融危机(Asian financial crisis: 1997-1998年亚洲多国货币和金融市场遭受冲击的危机)。就在每个人都认为亚洲经济体无懈可击的时候,泰国决定给世界上一课,关于隐藏的风险。它始于一件看似无聊的事情:泰国的货币——泰铢(Baht: 泰国的法定货币)——与美元挂钩。当地公司以美元借款,过着大手大脚的生活。问题是,他们的收入是泰铢。你可以把它想象成用黄金贷款买房,但却用大富翁游戏币支付。这在汇率不动时效果很好。
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But while Japan was dealing with its hangover, the rest of Asia was about to learn some hard lessons. Asian financial crisis. Just when everyone thought Asian economies were Invincible, Thailand decided to teach the world a lesson about hidden risks. It started with something seemingly boring: Thailand's currency, the bot, was pegged to the US dollar. Local companies were borrowing in dollars and Living Large. The problem: their income was in bot. They of it like taking out a loan in Gold to buy a house, but getting paid in Monopoly money. It works great until the exchange rate moves.
当泰国出口增长放缓时,投资者开始质疑泰铢是否真的值政府声称的价值。1997年7月2日,泰国为了捍卫泰铢耗尽了美元储备。货币几乎在一夜之间暴跌50%,公司突然发现他们的美元贷款债务翻了一番。但有趣的地方在于:投资者看向邻国,心想“嘿,他们也在做同样的事情!” 像多米诺骨牌一样,马来西亚、印度尼西亚和韩国的货币相继崩溃。印度尼西亚的印尼盾(Rupia: 印度尼西亚的法定货币)在几个月内贬值了80%。国际货币基金组织(IMF: International Monetary Fund,一个促进全球货币合作的国际组织)不得不介入,提供了400亿美元的救助。世界认识到,在一个相互关联的经济体中,一个国家的问题很快就会成为所有人的问题——这个教训在2008年美国抵押贷款引发全球金融危机时,世界需要重新学习。
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When Thailand's export growth slowed, investors started questioning if the bot was really worth what the government claimed. On July 2nd 1997, Thailand ran out of dollars defending the bot. The currency crashed 50% almost overnight, and companies suddenly owed twice as much on their dollar loans. But here's where it gets interesting: investors looked at neighboring countries and thought, hey, they're doing the same thing. Like dominoes, Malaysia, Indonesia, and South Korea watched their currencies collapse. Indonesia's rupia lost 80% of its value in months. The IMF had to step in with $40 billion in bailouts. The world learned that in a connected economy, one country's problem can quickly become everyone's problem, a lesson the world would need to relearn in 2008 when American mortgages triggered a global meltdown.
互联网泡沫:点燃革命的技术与失控的投机
但在我们谈到2008年之前,硅谷即将向我们展示世界究竟能变得多么相互关联。互联网泡沫(Dot-com bubble: 20世纪90年代末至21世纪初,互联网公司股票过度投机导致的泡沫)。还记得铁路狂热如何让投资者相信通往“虚无之地”的轨道价值连城吗?在20世纪90年代,硅谷证明你甚至不需要轨道,只需在公司名称中加上“.com”,然后看着钱滚滚而来。互联网无疑是革命性的,但投资者太害怕错过下一个微软,以至于他们向任何有网站的公司投入资金。
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But before we get there, Silicon Valley was about to show us how interconnected the world could really become. Com bubble. Remember how Railway Mania convinced investors that tracks to Nowhere were worth a fortune in the 1990s, Silicon Valley proved that you didn't even need tracks, just add to your company name and watch the money roll in. The internet was revolutionary, no doubt, but investors were so scared of missing out on the next Microsoft that they threw money at anything with a website.
公司在从未盈利的情况下上市,有些甚至没有产品。Pets.com(一家在互联网泡沫时期上市的宠物用品电商公司)在IPO(Initial Public Offering: 首次公开募股,公司首次向公众出售股票)中筹集了8200万美元,尽管每笔销售都在亏损。但是,嘿,增长高于利润,对吧?纳斯达克指数(NASDAQ: 美国的一个股票市场,以科技股为主)在1990年至2000年间从500点飙升至5000点。互联网企业家一夜之间成为亿万富翁。在其巅峰时期,一家名为高通(Qualcomm: 一家美国半导体和电信设备公司)的小型软件公司股价在一年内上涨了2600%。这使得荷兰郁金香的价格看起来都合理了。2000年3月,现实开始显现。到2002年10月,纳斯达克指数损失了78%的价值。亚马逊(Amazon: 著名的电子商务和云计算公司)的股价从17美元跌至7美元。大多数互联网公司(Dooms: 指互联网泡沫时期大量涌现并最终破产的互联网公司)完全消失了。就像铁路一样,尽管引发狂热的技术确实改变了一切,即使大多数投资者在错误的公司的押注中损失惨重。
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Companies were going public without ever making a profit, some without even having a product. Pets.com raised $82 million in an IPO despite losing money on every sale. But hey, growth over profits, right? The NASDAQ soared from 500 to 5,000 between 1990 and 2000. Internet entrepreneurs were becoming billionaires overnight. At its peak, a tiny software company called Qualcomm saw its stock rise 2600% in one year. That makes our Dutch tulet prices look reasonable. March 2000, reality kicked in. By October 2002, the NASDAQ had lost 78% of its value. Amazon's stock fell from $17 to $7. Most Dooms disappeared entirely. Just like Railways, though the technology that sparked the Mania did change everything, even if most investors lost their shirts betting on the wrong companies.
大宗商品泡沫:从虚拟到“真实”的投机
随着科技股的崩溃,投资者开始寻找更“真实”的东西来投资:石油、黄金、小麦。大宗商品肯定不会像互联网股票那样崩溃,对吧?大宗商品泡沫(Commodities bubble: 21世纪初因全球需求和金融投机导致大宗商品价格飙升的泡沫)。在被互联网公司的虚构利润烧伤后,投资者想要一些真实的东西:你可以触摸的石油,你可以持有的黄金,你可以吃的小麦。有什么能比实际的实物商品更安全呢?到2006年,从养老基金到小投资者,每个人都在涌入大宗商品市场。
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With tech stocks and ruins, investors started looking for something more real to put their money in: oil, gold, wheat. Surely Commodities couldn't crash like internet stocks, right? Commodities bubble. After getting burned by imaginary profits from dotom companies, investors wanted something real: oil you could touch, gold you could hold, wheat you could eat. What could be safer than actual physical stuff? By 2006, everyone from Pension funds to small investors was piling into Commodities.
石油从每桶50美元飙升至147美元,黄金翻倍至每盎司1000多美元,大米价格翻了三倍,导致一些国家发生粮食骚乱。甚至铜等基本金属也创下历史新高。故事很简单:中国蓬勃发展的经济将需要无尽的原材料,而供应无法跟上。华尔街看到了机会,创造了复杂的金融产品,让任何人都可以押注大宗商品价格。突然之间,你的退休基金可以投机小麦期货,因为将养老金与粮食投机混为一谈,这能出什么问题呢?到2008年中期,泡沫轰然破裂。石油暴跌回30美元,黄金下跌,粮食价格暴跌。
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Oil soared from $50 to $147 a barrel, gold doubled to over $1,000 an ounce, rice prices tripled causing food riots in some countries. Even basic metals like copper hit all-time highs. The story was simple: China's booming economy would need endless raw materials and supplies couldn't keep up. Wall Street saw an opportunity, creating complex Financial products that let anyone bet on commodity prices. Suddenly your retirement fund could speculate on wheat futures, because what could go wrong mixing pensions with food speculation? By mid2 2008, the bubble burst spectacularly. Oil crashed back to $30, gold tumbled, food prices collapsed.
房地产危机:次贷与全球金融崩溃
但这次崩溃并非孤立发生,它只是全球金融体系中一场完美风暴的一部分。还记得华尔街创造的那些花哨的金融产品吗?他们对住房也有一些其他的想法。住房危机(The housing crisis: 2008年全球金融危机的主要导火索,由美国次贷市场崩溃引发)。当大宗商品市场蓬勃发展时,华尔街发现了更好的东西:美国梦本身。毕竟,房价永远不会下跌,对吧?它开始得相当无辜:低利率意味着更多人买得起房。银行乐于放贷,他们只是将这些抵押贷款打包成复杂的证券,然后出售给全球投资者。
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But this crash wasn't happening in isolation, it was just one part of a perfect storm brewing in the Global Financial system. Remember all those fancy Financial products Wall Street created, they had some other ideas about housing too. The housing crisis. While Commodities were booming, Wall Street had discovered something even better: the American dream itself. After all, house prices never go down, right? It started innocently enough: low interest rates meant more people could afford homes. Banks were happy to lend, they just bundle those mortgages into complex Securities and sell them to investors worldwide.
很快,他们就用完了合格的借款人,但为什么要让这阻止一个好事情呢?次级抵押贷款(subprime mortgage: 贷给信用记录较差的借款人的高风险抵押贷款)出现了——向任何有心跳的人提供贷款。还记得日本银行如何利用房地产作为更多贷款的抵押品吗?华尔街说:“等等,看我的香槟。” 到2006年,你可以获得100万美元的抵押贷款,而无需工作、无需首付、无需收入证明。他们称之为忍者贷款(Ninja loans: No Income, No Job, No Assets,指无需收入、工作或资产证明的抵押贷款)。抵押贷款经纪人每笔贷款赚取数千美元,银行通过打包这些贷款赚取数百万美元,而评级机构则收钱视而不见。
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Soon they ran out of qualified borrowers, but why let that stop a good thing? Enter the subprime mortgage loans to anyone with a pulse. Remember how Japanese banks used real estate as collateral for more loans? Wall Street said hold my Champagne. By 2006, you could get a million dooll mortgage with no job, no down payment, and no proof of income. They called them ninja loans, no income, no job, no assets. Mortgage brokers were making thousands per loan, Banks were making millions bundling them, and rating agencies were paid to look the other way.
当房价最终在2007年开始下跌时,整个纸牌屋轰然倒塌。到2008年,主要银行倒闭,8万亿美元的住房财富蒸发。全球金融体系几乎崩溃,引发了大衰退(The Great Recession: 2008年由次贷危机引发的全球性经济衰退)。世界认识到,你不能建立在不良债务上的经济——至少直到加密货币交易所发现了杠杆交易。
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When housing prices finally started falling in 2007, the whole house of cards collapsed. By 2008, major Banks were failing and $8 trillion in housing wealth vanished. The Global Financial system nearly collapsed, triggering the Great Recession. The world learned you can't build an economy on bad debt, well at least until crypto exchanges discovered leverage trading.
加密货币泡沫:数字时代的重蹈覆辙
加密货币泡沫(Crypto bubble: 指加密货币市场因过度投机和非理性繁荣而产生的价格泡沫)。欢迎来到数字时代,我们设法在大约5年内重现了400年的金融错误。比特币(Bitcoin: 一种去中心化的数字加密货币)在2008年危机后作为银行的替代品推出,即将证明你不需要银行也能制造金融灾难。2017年的涨势让比特币从1000美元飙升至19000美元。就像南海公司一样,市场依靠承诺和投机运行。公司可以在名称中添加“区块链”,然后看到股价一夜之间翻三倍。Long Island Iced Tea(长岛冰茶公司)变成了Long Blockchain Corp(长区块链公司),其股价上涨了289%。当你有流行语时,谁还需要商业计划呢?
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Crypto bubble. Welcome to the digital age, where we managed to recreate 400 years of financial mistakes in about 5 years. Bitcoin launched after the 2008 crisis as an alternative to Banks, was about to show that you don't need Banks to create a financial disaster. The 2017 rally saw Bitcoin Surge from $1,000 to $119,000. Just like the south sea company, the market ran on promises and speculation. Companies could add blockchain to their name and see their stock price triple overnight. Long Island IC te became long blockchain Corp and its shares jumped 289 per. Who needs a business plan when you have buzzwords?
但2017年只是热身。到2021年,加密货币交易所提供了与导致房地产市场崩溃相同的有毒组合:杠杆、衍生品和可疑贷款。该行业市值达到3万亿美元,NFTs(Non-Fungible Tokens: 非同质化代币,一种独特的数字资产)以数百万美元出售。一种受狗表情包启发的加密货币甚至比福特汽车公司(Ford Motor Company: 美国一家汽车制造商)的市值还要高。2022年11月,加密货币的代表——FTX(一家加密货币交易所)——轰然倒塌。就像密西西比泡沫的约翰·劳一样,首席执行官萨姆·班克曼-弗里德(Sam Bankman-Fried: FTX创始人)在他的帝国崩溃时逃离。客户资金消失,比特币暴跌70%。整个加密市场损失了2万亿美元。不同的世纪,相同的故事:当某件事看起来好得不像真的时,它很可能就不是真的。
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But 2017 was just the warm-up. By 2021, crypto exchanges were offering the same toxic mix that crashed the housing market: leverage, derivatives, and questionable loans. The industry peaked at $3 trillion. Nfts were selling for Millions. One cryptocurrency inspired by a dog meme was worth more than Ford Motor Company. November 2022, FTX, the poster child of crypto, collapsed spectacularly. Like the Mississippi bubbles John Law, CEO Sam bankman fried fled as his Empire crumbled. Customer funds vanished. Bitcoin crashed 70%. The entire crypto Market lost $2 trillion. Different Century, same story: when something seems too good to be true, it probably is.
我不得不在这段视频中省略一些泡沫:中国房地产泡沫仍在发展中,2015年中国股市崩盘需要更多的历史视角,更别提20世纪20年代的佛罗里达土地热潮了。想了解更多金融历史的解释吗?点赞、订阅,并在评论中告诉我你接下来想看什么。
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Now I had to leave some bubbles out of this video: the Chinese real estate bubble is still unfolding, the 2015 Chinese stock market crash needs more historical perspective, and don't even get me started on the Florida land boom of the 1920s. Want more financial history explained? Like subscribe and let me know in the comments what you'd like to see next.
📌 文中提及的人物和组织
人物: Isaac Newton, Sam Bankman-Fried, adam-s-axiom
公司/组织: Amazon, FTX, Ford Motor Company, IMF, Pets.com, Qualcomm
产品/模型: Bitcoin