AI智能体:重塑软件开发与未来世界的关键里程碑 TED 2025-12-18

科技的启蒙与个人成长

我热爱科技,因为它能帮助我们实现过去无法想象的事情。例如,我成长在印度的一个农村地区,并非城市,也非富裕家庭。事实上,我小时候家里甚至没有电脑。我的初中和高中只有一台电脑供全校师生共享。我每周最多只有10到20分钟的时间使用电脑。这意味着我必须珍惜每一秒,因为我渴望学习编程。在仅有的10分钟里,这并非一个显而易见或轻松的选择。我没有一整天的时间来尝试我的代码。事实上,我必须像一个“人工编译器”(Human Compiler: 在实际运行前通过人工检查代码来发现语法错误)一样,提前检测出语法错误。我爱上了这种解决问题的过程,并最终进入了我所在邦的顶尖学府——金迪工程学院(College of Engineering, Guindy)学习,成为我们家族中第一代大学生。后来,我在阿姆斯特丹的阿姆斯特丹自由大学(Vrije Universiteit in Amsterdam)获得了博士学位。一个有趣的轶事是,在我的大学里,论文答辩时必须有两个人站在你身边,以防答辩时间过长,你需要休息时有人可以替补。在这张照片中,我请我的兄弟担任其中一人。他对我的博士论文几乎一无所知,非常担心我会开玩笑走开,但我没有。

Original English

What I love about technology is that it can help us do things that we could have never imagined. For instance, I grew up in a rural part of India. I didn't grow up in the city. I didn't come from an affluent family. In fact, we didn't have a computer when I was growing up. My middle school and high school had one computer that the entire school shared. I got access to 10 minutes a week, maybe 20 minutes max, for me to actually use a computer. That means I got to make every second count, and every second was precious because I wanted to learn how to program. With only 10 minutes to go, it wasn't an obvious choice or an easy one. I didn't have all day to try out my code. In fact, I had to be a human compiler to detect these syntax errors ahead of time. I fell in love with this problem solving that came with this and went on to actually study in the top college in my state, College of Engineering, Guindy, and was the first generation in my family to go to college. Eventually, I went out to get a PhD in Vrije Universiteit in Amsterdam. One funny anecdote, at my university, you had to have two people standing by your side while you are defending your thesis. In case the defense kept going on and on, someone needs to stand in if you need a break. Here in this picture, I asked my brother to be one of them. He knew almost nothing about my PhD dissertation and was terrified that I would step away as a joke, but I didn't.

亚马逊与AWS的创新之路

最终,我在亚马逊(Amazon)找到了一份工作。你们要知道,那是在20年前。我清楚地记得当时打电话给我妈妈,告诉她:“妈,我在亚马逊找到了一份工作。”我至今仍记得我妈妈当时的反应。她确信我加入一家“互联网图书公司”是在浪费我的博士学位,因为那时亚马逊就是这样一家公司。但在亚马逊,我有机会构建了许多令人惊叹的事物,最终发展成为亚马逊网络服务(AWS)。我参与构建了DynamoDB(Amazon的NoSQL数据库服务)、SageMaker(Amazon的机器学习服务)和Bedrock(Amazon的生成式AI服务)等技术,这些都是当今许多现代应用程序的基础。现在回想起来,这一切都始于我每周仅有的10分钟电脑使用时间,那台电脑甚至不属于我。它为我打开了一个我从未想过可能存在的世界。如今,作为AWS智能体AI副总裁(VP of Agentic AI),当我思考智能体将如何改变一切时,我情不自禁地感到乐观。今天,我将向大家介绍AI智能体(AI Agents: 能够自主推理、规划和适应以实现用户目标的软件系统),我认为它们将是我们时代最具变革性的技术转变之一。我们将探讨它们是什么,以及它们需要达到哪些里程碑才能让我们信任它们,并使其成为我们日常生活中不可或缺的一部分。我们还将讨论它们将如何改变一切。

Original English

Eventually, I got a job at Amazon. You've got to remember, this was 20 years ago. And during that time, and I was, actually I distinctly remember, calling my mom and telling her, saying, like, "Mom, I got a job in Amazon." And I still remember my mom's reaction when I told her. She was certain I was going to waste my time, PhD, by joining an internet book company, because that's what Amazon was at that time. But at Amazon, I got an opportunity to build amazing things. And what became eventually AWS. And I got to build technologies like DynamoDB, SageMaker and Bedrock, which are the underpinnings of many of the modern applications we use today. And now, if I look back, it all started with the 10 minutes of access I had to that computer that wasn't even mine. It opened up worlds to me that I could have never thought that was possible. And now, as the VP of agentic AI at AWS, when I think about how agents are going to transform everything, I can't help but be optimistic. Today, I’m going to talk to you about AI agents, what I think will be one of the most transformative technology shifts of our time. And we will talk about what they are and what are the milestones they need to achieve before we can trust them and make it an integral part of our daily lives. And also talk about how they will change everything.

AI智能体的定义与应用

那么,首先,什么是AI智能体?AI智能体是利用人工智能进行推理的自主软件系统(Autonomous Software Systems: 能够独立运行、决策并执行任务的计算机程序)。它们会规划、适应,以追求用户定义的目标。它们代表人类或其他系统完成任务。这些AI智能体能够感知并与其数字环境互动,将高层目标转化为可执行的步骤,并随着时间的推移不断学习和提高效率。如今,智能体被广泛应用于各个领域,从软件开发到药物发现,再到精准农业等等。它们能够像人类一样使用和操作数字环境中的接口,这极大地降低了构建应用程序等用例的门槛。你不再需要僵硬的应用程序规范,然后将其分解为复杂的软件项目。现在,你只需陈述你的目标,让AI智能体去解决。

Original English

So first, what are AI agents? AI agents are these autonomous software systems that leverage AI to reason. They plan and they adapt in pursuit of user-defined goals. They complete tasks on your behalf of humans or other systems. These AI agents can sense and interact with their digital environment, converting these high-level objectives into executable steps. And constantly they learn and improve their efficiency over time. Today, agents are being used for everything, right from software development to drug discovery to precision agriculture to many more. Their ability to use and manipulate interfaces in their digital environment, the same way we as humans do, dramatically lowers the bar for use cases like building applications. You no longer need rigid application specifications and then break it down into complex software projects. Now you have the possibility to just state your goal and let the AI agents figure it out.

智能体与聊天机器人的区别

但并非所有事物都是智能体。例如,想象你是一名实验室研究员,坐在电脑前告诉AI你想要运行一些实验来探索一种新蛋白质。AI回应说:“太好了,让我来为你提出六个可以运行的实验。”这并不是一个智能体,而是一个聊天机器人(Chatbot: 模拟人类对话的计算机程序)。但有了智能体,当你给它们一个目标时,它们可以进行规划、编写代码、使用工具为你构建实验、综合结果、反思失败,并不断寻找提高效率的方法。你可能需要一周或更长时间来研究和制定这些实验计划的工作,现在可以在几小时甚至几分钟内完成。你的角色现在更像一个值得信赖的顾问(Trusted Advisor: 提供专业指导和建议的角色),引导这些AI智能体进行实际执行,在很多方面就像同行评审同事的书籍一样。有了AI智能体,创造事物的障碍将会降低。诸如“我没有特定的技能”、“我没有足够的资源或人手来完成这个项目”之类的挑战将开始消失。我们共同的未来将由那些能够宏大思考(Think Big: 拥有远大抱负和愿景)甚至梦想更大(Dream Bigger: 拥有超越现有边界的想象力)的人塑造。

Original English

But not everything is an agent. For example, imagine you are a researcher in a lab. You're sitting down at your computer and tell the AI that you want to run some experiments to explore a new protein. It responds telling you something like, "Great, let me actually propose the six experiments you can run." Now that's not an agent, that's a chatbot. But with agents, what you get is when you give them a goal, they can plan. They can write code, they can use the tools to build the experiment for you. They will synthesize your results, and they will reflect on failures. And they will look for ways to constantly improve their efficiency over time. The work that you might take for a week or more to research and build the plans for these experiments can now be done in hours or even minutes. Your role now becomes more of a trusted advisor, where you are steering these AI agents towards actually execution and, in many ways, like peer reviewing a colleague’s book. With AI agents, the barriers to creating something will now lower. Challenges, like, I don't have a particular skill, or I don't have enough resources or headcount to do this project are going to start to go away. The future we will share will be shaped by those with the ability to think big and even dream bigger.

AI智能体发展的第一个里程碑:赋能开发者

但我们还没有完全实现这些。事实上,AI智能体需要实现三个里程碑,才能从根本上改变我们的工作和生活方式。第一个里程碑是关于我们如何构建软件。我们的世界如此数字化。事实上,仅在这个房间里,你们所有设备上可能就有数百个甚至更多的应用程序。在我们的日常生活中,我们不断地承载着成千上万,甚至数十万软件开发者的工作成果。所以,现在当你思考AI智能体时,在它们能够触达大众之前,它们首先需要触达构建者(Builders: 指软件开发者或应用创建者)。这意味着,如果它们要生存下来,这些构建者需要发现智能体是有用且有趣的。这超越了开发者日常使用的工具。这些工具已经变得越来越智能体化,但需要改变的是构建这些智能体的容易程度。更大的转变在于改变我们如何概念化有效的智能体架构(Effective Agent Architectures: 智能体系统设计和组织方式,以实现高效和可靠的性能)。

Original English

But we are not there yet. In fact, there are three milestones these AI agents need to achieve before they fundamentally change how we work and how we live. The first is how we build software. So much of our world is digital. In fact, in this room alone, on all the devices you have in this room, there are probably hundreds of applications, if not more. In our daily lives, on a constant basis, we carry the works of tens of thousands of software developers, if not more than, like, hundreds or thousands of software developers. So now, when you think about it, for AI agents, before they can even reach the masses, they need to reach builders. And that means, if they are going to survive, those builders need to find the agents to be useful and interesting. This goes beyond the tools that these developers use on a daily basis. They are already becoming agentic, but what needs to change is how easy are these agents to build. The bigger shift is in changing how we conceptualize effective agent architectures.

简化软件开发中的决策

现在来看看软件开发者或构建者如何构建应用程序的问题。如今,作为开发者,他们在构建这些应用程序时需要做出许多选择。其中许多是实现细节(Implementation Details: 系统或程序内部工作方式的具体技术选择),比如我需要选择哪种服务器或哪种计算选项来托管这个网站或构建这个移动应用程序?如果你从未做过这种选择,那么在云端托管你的网站或应用程序有很多选项可供决定。例如,在AWS中,对于一个构建者来说,如果他们想在我们的服务之一EC2(Elastic Compute Cloud: AWS提供的可扩展计算容量服务)上托管移动应用程序或网站,我们提供了大约850种计算选项供他们选择,这甚至还不是全部。还有更多。现在,随着我们迈向智能体时代(Agentic Era: AI智能体成为核心驱动力的时代),开发者将能够将注意力转移到他们正在构建的“内容”上,而不是担心“如何”构建。这意味着选择哪种计算等决策将变得不那么重要。事实上,AI智能体将自动帮助我们为你选择这些。

Original English

Now take a look at this problem of how software developers or builders build applications. Today, as developers, they have a bunch of choices they have to make as they are building these applications. Many of these are implementation details, like which server or which compute option do I need to choose for hosting this website or building this mobile app? If you have never had to make this choice, there are a lot of options to decide, like, how to host your website or application in the cloud. For example, in AWS for a builder, if they want to host a mobile app or website, in one of our services called EC2, we offer something like 850 compute options for them to choose from, and that is not even one compute option. There are even more. And now, as we move towards the agentic era, developers will be able to shift their focus into what they are building instead of worrying about how they are building. That means decisions like which compute to choose become less relevant. In fact, AI agents are going to automatically enable us to pick those things for you.

AI智能体发展的第二个里程碑:建立信任

接下来智能体将要达到,也必须达到的里程碑是信任。没有信任,智能体的任何能力都将变得毫无意义。但你如何信任一个智能体呢?现实是,我们仍处于智能体AI(Agentic AI: 具备自主决策、规划和执行能力的AI系统)的早期阶段。我们知道智能体是不完美的,它们会犯错误。然而,即使在简单的任务中,我们对完美也有着不妥协的需求。好消息是,智能体并非通过某种“魔法”来完成任务。这些AI智能体所使用的系统、工具和环境都有明确的规范,说明它们如何工作以及应该做什么,因此可以通过数学方法证明(Mathematically Proved: 通过严谨的数学逻辑和推理来验证其正确性)一个系统或程序是否按照其应用程序规范运行。这种技术被称为自动化推理(Automated Reasoning: 计算机科学领域,通过数学逻辑确保系统行为符合预期)。

Original English

Now the next milestones agents are going to reach, and they must reach, is trust. Without trust, none of these capabilities of agents are going to really matter. But how can you trust an agent? The reality is that we are still in very early days of agentic AI. We know agents are imperfect, and they will make mistakes. Yet even in simple tasks, we have an uncompromising need for perfection. The good news is that agents are not reaching into some magical ether to make things happen. The systems, tools and the environments that these AI agents are using have well-understood specifications on how they work and what they should be doing, so they can actually be mathematically proved if a system or program obeys its application specifications the way they are intended to. And this technique is called automated reasoning.

自动化推理的起源与应用

自动化推理是一个计算机科学领域,旨在基于严谨的数学逻辑,确保系统行为完全符合预期。它的根源可以追溯到古希腊,亚里士多德(Aristotle: 古希腊哲学家,逻辑学的奠基人之一)是第一位尝试对逻辑语法进行系统分析的逻辑学家。如今,自动化推理是数学逻辑中对证明进行算法搜索(Algorithmic Search: 使用算法来寻找解决方案或证明的过程),可用于确保智能体推理的准确性。要做到这一点,你需要精确了解每个智能体能做什么。

Original English

Automated reasoning is a field of computer science that attempts to provide assurance if a system is behaving exactly as it is expected, based on sound mathematical logic. Its roots go all the way back to ancient Greece, where Aristotle was the first logician to attempt a systematic analysis of logical syntax. Today, automated reasoning is the algorithmic search for proofs in mathematical logic, and can be used to make sure that the agentic reasoning is accurate. To do this, you need to know precisely what each agent can do.

Amazon Q的实践案例

现在,让我们看一个非常小的例子。在AWS,我们构建的首批智能体之一是Amazon Q(AWS的首批AI智能体之一,帮助开发者构建软件应用)。除其他功能外,Q旨在帮助软件开发者构建软件应用程序。我们非常兴奋,甚至在原型阶段就已经想象到Q能带来的所有惊人可能性,因为它将像我们最优秀的软件开发者一样智能和有能力。我们认为它将加速我们的路线图并消除所有积压工作。但存在一个问题。我们构建的第一个原型更像我当年在亚马逊做实习生的时候——充满热情但容易出错。它们会幻觉(Hallucinating: AI生成不准确或虚假信息)出错误的API调用。我们必须修复它。

Original English

So now let's take a look at a very small example. At AWS, one of the first agents we built was called Amazon Q. Among other things, Q was built to help software developers build software applications. We were really excited. We were already imagining all the amazing possibilities Q can do, even in its prototype, because it was going to be as smart and capable as our best software developers. We thought it's going to accelerate our road map and obliterate all our backlogs. But there was a problem. The first prototype we built was more like me when I was an intern in Amazon. They were eager and error-prone. They were hallucinating API calls. We had to fix it.

神经符号反馈循环的构建

我们是如何解决这个问题的呢?我们将所有的API规范(API Specs: 应用程序接口的详细说明和规则)形式化为数学模型,这样每当Amazon Q生成一个API请求时,一个自动化推理求解器(Automated Reasoning Solver: 验证API请求是否有效)会首先验证:“这是一个有效的请求吗?”如果求解器发现错误,它会反馈给智能体:“嘿,你可能在这里弄错了。你能重新组织你的代码吗?”这样,即使在需要人工干预之前,错误就已经被修复了。这种来回的沟通创造了我所说的神经符号反馈循环(Neurosymbolic Feedback Loop: 透明的反馈机制,结合神经网络与符号推理,确保智能体行动的正确性),它完全透明,使我们能够通过数学方法证明(Mathematically Prove: 通过严谨的数学逻辑和推理来验证其正确性)智能体在采取行动之前,其行动将是正确的。而且它完成得比你眨眼还快:在95%的用例中,耗时仅100微秒或更少。这只是一个小的开始,但我们相信结合智能体AI自动化推理将有助于智能体变得值得信赖,从而实现广泛采用。

Original English

So how did we go about it? We formalized all the API specs into mathematical model so that every time Q generates an API request, an automated reasoning solver first verifies saying like, "Is this a valid request?" If the solver finds an error, it communicates back to the agent saying like, "Hey, I think you got it wrong this way. Can you now restructure your code?" So now it gets fixed even before requiring human intervention. This back-and-forth communication creates what I call as a neurosymbolic feedback loop that is completely transparent and enables us to mathematically prove that the action an agent can take is going to be correct even before it is taken. And it does it faster than you can blink: 100 microseconds or less for 95 percent of use cases. Now, this is just a small start, but we believe combining agentic AI and automated reasoning will help agents become trustworthy to reach widespread adoption.

AI智能体发展的第三个里程碑:普惠大众

现在,如果我们止步于此,我们将拥有一个令人难以置信的开发者体验,世界上每个软件开发者都能构建出令人惊叹、值得信赖的智能体。但如果智能体只针对一小部分人群,它就无法改变一切。在各个行业中,有各种各样的人,其中大多数从未编写过一行代码。最终的里程碑是让任何人都能构建智能体。这里有一个例子。想象一下,如果你只有两分钟的时间来回顾今天在TED大会上听到的一切,并需要将其总结出来。你们中的许多人可能会想:“我知道了,我只要说得非常非常快就能做到。”但如果我告诉你必须使用今天看到的视频片段来创建你的两分钟总结,那就不行了。你认为你需要多长时间才能创建这个完美的、两分钟的故事?

Original English

Now, if we stopped here, we would have an incredible developer experience where every software developer in the world can build amazing, trustworthy agents. But agents can't change everything if it only targets a small subset of population. Across businesses, there are wide variety of people and most have never written a single line of code. The final milestone is to enable anyone to build agents. Here is an example. Imagine if you only had two minutes to recap everything you heard in the TED conference today and now you had to summarize it. For many of you thinking, "You know what, I'm going to just talk really, really fast and I can do it." That's not going to cut it if I tell you you have to use the clips that you saw today to create your two-minute summary. How long do you think it will take you to create this perfect two-minute story?

Amazon Prime Video的智能体应用

这正是我们在Amazon Prime Video(亚马逊的流媒体服务平台)面临的问题,制作一个有效的Prime Video系列回顾可能需要数周时间,而且成本非常高昂,因为从创建故事弧线到选择场景,一切都是手动完成的。电影摄影专家通常不是编程大师,但我们引入了智能体来帮助简化流程,将工作流程分为三个阶段:观察(Observation: 智能体理解视频内容和细节)、推理(Reasoning: 智能体基于观察结果进行决策和规划)和行动(Action: 智能体执行具体任务以实现目标)。在我们的第一个阶段,我们称之为“观察”,我们要求AI智能体理解视频中发生的一切。它们需要对镜头、场景和整个故事的各个方面进行丰富而详细的观察和理解,以便我们能够定义故事弧线并选择正确的场景。

Original English

Now that is the exact problem we faced in our Amazon Prime Video, where an effective recap of a Prime Video series can take weeks to produce and is very expensive because everything, from creating the story arc to selecting scenes, is manual. Cinematography experts are not usually the master coders, but we introduce agents to help streamline the process, breaking the workflow into three phases: observation, reasoning and action. Now, in our first phase, what we call as observation, we ask AI agents to understand what's happening in the video. They need to produce a rich and detailed observation and understanding about every aspect of the shot, scene and the entire story, so that we can define a story arc and select the right scenes.

智能体工作流:推理与行动

然后我们进入第二个阶段,我们称之为“推理”。在这里,我们可以想象智能体在说:“根据我所知道的,我需要做什么?”推理建立在观察之上。例如,我们想要为回顾生成一个画外音叙述。我们可以要求推理智能体通过与观察智能体协作来生成脚本。然后,最后一步是我们称之为“行动”。在这个阶段,你引入的是值得信赖的专家,他们将与这些AI智能体合作,最终帮助回顾故事。现在,如果你回到你的两分钟TED回顾,如果有了这些强大的AI智能体,这项任务对你来说会变得多么容易?人类与智能体协作(Human and Agent Collaboration: 人类与AI智能体共同完成任务的工作模式)的力量在于它将我们从繁琐工作(Drudge Work: 枯燥、重复且耗时的工作)中解放出来,使我们能够做那些令人惊叹的事情,并根据我们真正热爱的事物进行创造。

Original English

Then we move to the second phase, what we call as reasoning. Here, what we can imagine is the agents are saying, like, "With what I know, what do I need to do?" Reasoning layers on top of observation. So for example, we want to generate a voice-over narrative for recaps. We can ask the reasoning agent to generate the script by collaborating with the observation agent. Then, the final step is what we call as action. In this phase, now what you are bringing in are the trusted experts who are going to work with these AI agents to help finally recap the story. Now, if you go back to your two-minute TED recap, how much easier would it be for you with this task if you had these powerful AI agents? The power of human and agent collaboration is that it frees us up from being bogged on by the drudge work, and enables us to do these amazing things and creating things based on exactly what we love.

普及智能体构建与未来展望

但在Prime Video中,他们正在使用智能体。那么我们如何才能达到任何人都能构建智能体的境界呢?事实上,构建智能体的框架正在日益简化。任何懂得用Python(Python: 一种广泛使用的高级编程语言)编写代码的应用程序开发者现在都可以构建一个非常有用的智能体。而且现在我们也开始看到,不仅是AWS,而是各地都在构建这些智能体云基础设施(Agentic Cloud Infrastructure: 旨在支持和简化AI智能体开发与部署的云服务),这使得从概念验证到生产部署变得超级容易。但仅凭这些还不够。我们需要扩大能够构建AI智能体的人群。为此,构建智能体的接口必须对业务用户也变得熟悉。我们思考构建和训练智能体的方式也必须改变。更智能的模型固然很好,但一个不采取任何行动或对我们做事方式一无所知的世界级学者是无益的。我们需要为现实世界做好准备的智能体。我们需要为智能体创造可以“玩耍”的世界,并改进下一代数字孪生(Digital Twin: 物理实体或系统的虚拟模型)。

Original English

But in Prime Video, they were using agents. So how do we get to a place where anyone can build agents? In fact, the frameworks to build agents are already getting simplified day by day. Any application developer who knows how to write a code in Python can now build a pretty useful agent already. And now we are also starting to see, like, not just from AWS, but everywhere around, we are building these agentic cloud infrastructure that makes it super easy to go from proof of concepts to production. But those alone are not enough. We need to expand the pool of people who can build AI agents. To get there, the interfaces to build agents must become familiar to business users as well. The way we think about building and training agents must also change. Smarter models are great, but a world-class scholar that doesn't take any action or that is ignorant to the way we do things, isn't helpful. We need agents that are ready for the real world. We will need to create worlds for agents to play with and to improve the next generation of digital twin.

智能体驱动的未来

一旦我们完成了所有这些,会发生什么?如果我们做得对,这些智能体将变得无形(Invisible: 指智能体融入日常,用户感知不到其存在,但能感受到其带来的便利),但它们将帮助我们完成不可思议的事情。在未来几年里,我们将看到智能体以前所未有的速度催生更多公司,成功将由你的想法和你描述你想要构建什么的能力决定。我们将看到更多的医学突破,你将看到更多的发现。所有这一切都让我如此乐观,因为我们与智能体共同拥有的未来,最终将由你来构建。你的10分钟即将到来。你将构建什么?

Original English

And once we are done [with] all of that, what happens? If we get it right, these agents will become invisible, but they will help us do incredible things. In the next few years, we will see agents that give rise to more companies faster than ever, where success is determined by your ideas and your ability to describe what you want to build. We will see more medical breakthroughs, and you are going to see way more discoveries. And with all of this, what makes me so optimistic is that the future we will have with agents will be ultimately built by you. Your 10 minutes are coming. What will you build? (Applause)

📌 文中提及的人物和组织

公司/组织: Amazon, AWS

产品/模型: DynamoDB, Bedrock, EC2, Prime Video