挪威主权财富基金:深度解析其外部管理人投资策略 Norges Bank Investment Management 2025-02-04

挪威主权财富基金的诞生与增长

我们是多么幸运!1969年,在最后一次钻探中发现了石油。

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Oh boy, have we been lucky. Oil was found in one of the last drills in 1969.

具有前瞻性的政治家们采取行动,确保挪威人民能够从中受益,不仅是我们这一代,也包括未来的世代。

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Forward-thinking politicians acted such that the Norwegian people were the ones who benefited, not only our generation but also generations to come.

1990年,也就是第一笔资金流入前仅仅六年,挪威议会通过了一项法案,成立了当时被称为挪威政府石油基金(Norwegian Government Petroleum Fund: 挪威的主权财富基金,后更名为挪威政府全球养老基金)。

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In 1990, just six years prior to the first inflow, the Norwegian parliament adopted an act that established the Norwegian Government Petroleum Fund, as it was called at that time.

所以,时机非常完美;当资金开始流入时,这个组织已经建立起来,准备好进行投资。

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So, the timing was quite excellent; when the money started to flow in, the organization was already set up, ready to invest.

自那时以来,我们的目标一直是为适度风险争取最高可能的回报。

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Since then, our goal has been to maximize, or give the highest possible return for a moderate risk.

自成立以来,基金已累计增加近50亿挪威克朗(kroner: 挪威的货币单位)。

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Almost 5 billion kroner has been added to the fund since the beginning.

这是从挪威石油和天然气生产收入中节省下来的资金流。

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That is the flow of money saved from the revenues of Norwegian oil and gas production.

然而,基金的大部分价值来自投资回报;自1996年首次资金流入以来,基金已产生了14,000亿克朗的回报,其中包括3,000亿克朗的汇率影响。

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However, most of the fund's value comes from returns; since the first inflow in 1996, the fund has generated a return of 14,000 billion kroner, including a currency effect of 3,000 billion.

回报占基金价值的75%,包括汇率影响。

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The return accounts for 75% of the fund's value, including currency effects.

这真是令人着迷。

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That is fascinating.

为了保护挪威本土经济,基金只在挪威境外进行投资。

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To protect the Norwegian mainland economy, the fund is only invested outside of Norway.

因此,投资主要分布在北美、欧洲和亚洲大洋洲。

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So, the investments are divided primarily between North America, Europe, and Asia Oceania.

资产配置与全球布局

基金的72%投资于股票(equities: 代表公司所有权的金融资产),26%投资于固定收益(fixed income: 提供固定回报的投资,如债券),2%投资于房地产。

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72% of the fund is invested in equities, 26% in fixed income, and 2% in real estate.

我们有一条自动规则,当市场上涨时,我们会减持或减少股票,当股票下跌时,我们会买入,以将股票比例保持在70%左右。

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We have an automatic rule that makes us sell down or reduce equities when the market increases, and buy equities when they decline, to keep the equity portion around 70%.

大多数固定收益资产投资于发达市场,其中很大一部分是欧元、美元、英镑和日元计价的国债(treasury bonds: 政府发行的债券)。

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Most fixed-income assets are in developed markets, with a large percentage in treasury bonds issued in euros, dollars, pounds, and yen.

我们还在全球多个城市的近900处房产进行投资,包括伦敦、巴黎、柏林、纽约、波士顿、旧金山和东京的办公楼、零售和物流地产。

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We also invest in close to 900 properties in several global cities, including offices, retail, and logistics sectors in London, Paris, Berlin, New York, Boston, San Francisco, and Tokyo.

基金还投资了大约9,000家公司,遍布71个国家,全部是上市股票。

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The fund is also invested in almost 9,000 companies across, I think, 71 countries, all listed equities.

平均而言,基金拥有所有上市公司1.5%的股份,这使其成为全球最大的单一公司所有者之一,这同样令人着迷。

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On average, the fund owns 1.5% of all listed companies, making it one of the world's largest single owners of companies, which is quite fascinating.

股票管理基于两大策略:市场敞口和基于基本面研究的证券选择。

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Equity management is based on two main strategies: market exposure and security selection based on fundamental research.

这些策略使我们能够获得股票基准所体现的广泛股票市场敞口,同时通过公司分析和证券选择提高回报。

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These strategies enable us to achieve exposure to the broad equity market, as expressed in the equity benchmark, while simultaneously increasing returns based on company analysis and security selection.

外部管理人:在地专业知识与超额收益

在伦敦、纽约和新加坡,我们组织全球行业团队,专注于亚洲的新兴市场和小型股公司。

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In London, New York, and Singapore, we organize global sector teams focusing on emerging markets and small-cap companies in Asia.

所有这些团队都以国家为中心,并设在各自的国家,例如,专注于印度、巴西、日本小型股和韩国小型股。

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All of them are country-focused and based in the respective countries, for example, focusing on India, Brazil, Japan small-cap, and Korea small-cap.

在欧洲和美国,情况则更为复杂,既有本地的、专注于国家的、小型管理人,也有一些区域和行业管理人。

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In Europe and the US, it's a bit more mixed, with both locally based, country-focused small managers and some regional and sector managers.

关键在于我们寻找对少数领域非常了解的专家。

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The key is that we look for specialists who know a few areas very well.

如今,我们在全球50个不同城市拥有110名管理人。

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Today, we have 110 managers in 50 different cities across the world.

我们坚信身处当地的信息优势。

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We strongly believe in the information advantage of being on the ground.

我们寻求建立基于他们广泛的本地知识和研究的投资组合。

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We seek to build portfolios grounded in their extensive local knowledge and research.

他们通过频繁的现场访问而非仅仅参加会议,与投资组合中的公司保持定期沟通。

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They maintain regular communication with the companies in the portfolios by frequently visiting them on-site, rather than just attending conferences.

我们的目标是产生超额收益(excess return: 超过基准指数或同类投资平均水平的收益)。

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Our aim is to generate excess return.

截至去年,自成立以来,我们已产生了1.8%的年化超额收益(扣除费用后),总计900亿克朗。

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As of last year, we have generated an annualized excess return of 1.8% after fees since the beginning, which amounts to 90 billion kroner.

随着时间的推移,我们只支付了3%的费用,这意味着80%的超额收益由我们保留。

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Over time, we have only paid 3% in fees, meaning 80% of the excess return is kept by us.

我们还认为,外部管理人通过避免投资那些在这些市场中具有问题商业模式和薄弱公司治理的公司,从而降低了过度投资的风险。

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We also believe that external managers reduce the risk of over-investments by avoiding certain companies with problematic business models and weak corporate governance in these markets.

这些管理人通常在风险敞口较高的市场中运作。

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These managers operate in markets with higher exposure risk.

我们对ESG(Environmental, Social, and Governance: 环境、社会和公司治理)问题的关注已融入到选择和监控过程中。

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Our focus on ESG issues is integrated into the selection and monitoring process.

例如,在选择管理人后,我们会向他们发送期望文件并讨论ESG问题,以确保他们理解对我们而言重要的事情,并在代表我们投资时牢记在心。

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For example, after selecting a manager, we send expectation documents to them and discuss ESG issues to ensure they understand what is important to us and keep it in mind when investing on our behalf.

事实上,本地管理人避免了其本地基准中75%的公司。

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Local managers have actually avoided 75% of the companies in their local benchmarks.

我们的策略随着基金规模的扩大、市场环境的变化而不断演变。

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Our strategy has evolved over time with the expansion of the fund's universe, its size, and changes in the market environment.

我们的方法始终是动态的,我们选择关注的细分市场也发生了变化,例如2000年专注于小型股,2005年专注于区域管理人。

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Our approach has always been dynamic, and the segments we choose to focus on have changed, such as a small-cap focus in 2000, and regional managers in 2005.

这涉及到大量的通过额外研究可能更好地评估的不确定性。

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This involves a great deal of uncertainty that may be better assessed through additional research.

我们预计未来变化将继续,因为我们知道机会会发生变化。

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We expect changes to continue going forward, as we know there will be changes in opportunities.

不变的是,我们所有的委托都基于深入的基本面研究,并且都采用独立账户。

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What has not changed is that all our mandates are based on deep fundamental research, and they are all on segregated accounts.

这意味着他们以我们的名义在我们的账簿上进行交易。

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That means they are trading on our books in our name.

我们这样做有几个原因。

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There are several reasons why we do that.

首先,我们随时可以看到他们买卖了什么,因此我们了解每个投资组合的风险、持仓、变化以及它们的组合。

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First, we see at all times what they buy and sell, so we know the risk of each of the portfolios, the holdings, changes, and their combination.

如果有什么疑问,资产的所有权绝对没有疑问,因为它们是在我们的账簿上交易的。

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If anything, there is absolutely no doubt who owns the assets because they are trading on our book.

管理人选择哲学与流程

你可能已经看过电影**《点球成金》(Moneyball: 讲述一支棒球队如何通过数据分析而非高薪来组建有竞争力的队伍),布拉德·皮特饰演的比利·比恩**(Billy Beane)为奥克兰运动家队组建了一支棒球队,因为他们无法在薪资上竞争。

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You may have seen the movie Moneyball, with Brad Pitt as Billy Beane, who builds a team of baseball players for the Oakland A's because they can't compete on salary.

我们遵循类似的过程。

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We follow a similar process.

我们不根据管理人过去的表现来决定是否聘用他们,因为我们相信预期的表现会很好,而不是他们过去表现好。

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We don't look at hiring managers based on their past performance because we believe expected performance will be good, not necessarily that they have had good performance historically.

历史表现可能会隐藏某些因素,例如,良好的表现是否是由团队中曾工作过的某些分析师所驱动。

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Historical performance may hide certain factors, for example, whether good performance was driven by certain analysts who used to work in the team.

此外,我们需要很长的历史数据来判断表现是否由技能驱动,而我们常常没有这样的历史数据。

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Furthermore, we need a long history to figure out if performance is driven by skill, and very frequently, we don't have that history.

其次,决定哪个管理人应该获得委托的不是投资委员会,而是一个独立的投资组合管理人。

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Second, it's not an investment committee that decides which manager should be awarded a mandate, but an individual portfolio manager.

我们曾说过,聘用外部管理人是一项投资决策,而投资决策不应在集体环境中做出。

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We have said that employing external managers is an investment decision, and investment decisions should not be made in group settings.

因此,我们团队中有八人负责选择管理人,我们团队中的每个人都是负责选择和终止的投资组合管理人。

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So, we have eight people in the team selecting managers, and each of us is a portfolio manager responsible for selection and termination.

在每个委托中,都有一位专门的决策者。

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Within each, there is one dedicated decision-maker for the mandate.

我们不像许多其他客户那样使用顾问来协助我们。

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We don't use consultants to assist us, unlike many other clients.

我们决定深入挖掘,了解管理人投资组合理念和团队互动的各个方面,因为我们正在努力创建由不同投资组合管理人组成的投资组合,这些管理人具有不同的重点和投资范围,并能很好地协同工作。

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We have decided to delve deep to know every aspect of the manager's portfolio philosophy and team interaction because we are striving to create a portfolio of different portfolio managers that fit well together, with different focuses and investment universes.

那么,我们具体怎么做呢?我们遵循一个相当结构化的选择过程。

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So, what do we do? We follow a quite structured selection process.

它始于向潜在管理人发送一份简短问卷,询问他们的组织、团队、完整投资组合和主要竞争对手。

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It starts with a short questionnaire to potential managers, asking about their organization, teams, full portfolio, and main competitors.

这些信息有助于我们更好地了解其他管理人。

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This information helps us gain better insight into additional managers.

在此基础上,我们拥有一个庞大的潜在管理人数据集,可以对他们的实际投资组合、购买变化以及彼此之间的差异进行不同的分析。

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Based on that, we have a huge dataset of potential managers and can perform different analyses on their actual portfolios, changes in what they've been buying, and differences between each.

这会形成一个候选名单,我们可以与他们在现场会面。

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This leads to a shortlist, and we can meet them on-site.

那些被选中进入第二轮和第三轮的管理人将接受更广泛的运营尽职调查,在选择前与我们的团队会面三到五次。

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Those selected for the second and third rounds undergo more extensive operational due diligence, meeting our team three to five times before selection.

在这些会议中,有几位管理人会被淘汰,同时也会发现新的管理人并将其纳入搜索范围。

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Several are screened out during these meetings, while new managers are found and included in the search.

每次会议,我们都会对投资组合的变化和团队的潜在变化进行更多分析。

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Each time we have these meetings, we conduct a lot more analysis on portfolio changes and potential team changes.

这个过程是持续重复的。

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This process is repeated continuously.

对于所有我们合作的潜在管理人,我们通常在选择前与他们会面三到四次,并在选择后每季度会面一次。

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For all potential managers we invest with, we usually meet them three to four times before selection and once per quarter after they are selected.

在这些会议中,我们讨论投资组合、个别公司、他们何时会见了公司管理层、他们谈论了什么、讨论了哪些ESG问题、公司的定价情况,以及他们为何与市场其他参与者持有不同观点。

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In these meetings, we discuss the portfolio, individual companies, when they met the management of those companies, what they talked about, which ESG issues they discussed, what is priced into the company, and why they have a different view from the rest of the market.

这包括他们已投资的公司和他们决定不投资的公司。

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This includes both companies they are invested in and companies they have decided to stay out of.

所有与这些管理人的会议都在现场进行;我们从不在我们的办公室会见任何管理人。

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All meetings with these managers are conducted on-site; we never meet any managers in our offices.

这有几个原因。

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There are several reasons for that.

首先,我们更希望管理人专注于投资和投资组合,而不是为了见我们而环游世界。

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First, we prefer the manager to focus on investments and the portfolio rather than traveling around the world to meet us.

其次,通过现场会面,我们可以见到整个团队,如果你把他们拖到挪威,这是不可能的。

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Second, by seeing them on-site, we can meet the whole team, which is impossible if you drag them to Norway.

第三,在某个国家会见管理人时,我们不仅会见我们现有的管理人,还会见所有现有和潜在的管理人,这样我们就可以比较他们对市场和公司的看法。

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Third, when meeting managers in a country, we don't only meet the ones we currently have, but also all existing and potential managers, so we can compare their views on markets and companies.

这让我们对管理人的不同观点有了很好的理解:谁的想法与众不同,谁对投资理念是早期或晚期,谁参与了对冲等等。

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This provides a very good understanding of the managers' different views: who thinks differently from the rest, who is early or late to investment ideas, who is engaged in hedging, etc.

在某个市场寻找管理人时,我们寻找一家优秀的投资公司和一位优秀的投资组合管理人。

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When looking for managers in a certain market, we look for a good investment company and a good portfolio manager.

经验表明,回报通常归因于个人,他们需要组织支持。

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Experience shows that returns are often attributed to individuals, and they need organizational support.

我们经常发现,小型、私有制机构比大型机构,特别是那些由金融机构拥有的机构,能产生更高的超额收益。

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We often find smaller, privately owned organizations generate higher excess returns than larger ones, especially those owned by financial institutions.

这有几个原因:通常,投资组合管理人、分析师和客户之间的利益更一致;薪酬结构反映并强化了这种一致性;私有制机构更擅长吸引、留住和培养有才华的团队;他们更频繁地专注于产生回报,而不是仅仅聚集资产。

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There are several reasons for this: more often, better alignment of interests between portfolio managers, analysts, and customers; compensation structures that reflect and strengthen this alignment; privately owned organizations are better at attracting, retaining, and growing talented teams; and they more frequently focus on generating returns rather than just gathering assets.

金融经验的不同部分涉及个人责任和个性,从而导致深入分析。

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Different parts of financial experience involve personal responsibility and personality, leading to in-depth analysis.

投资组合管理人应对最终投资决策拥有所有权。

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Portfolio managers should have ownership of the final investment decision.

我们避免拥有僵化投资委员会的投资团队,并寻找能够实现清晰和基于个人决策的组织。

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We avoid investment teams with rigid investment committees and look for organizations where we can find clear and individual-based decision-making.

在投资决策中,应避免群体环境中的过度自信、缺乏质量和寻求一致性。

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Overconfidence in group settings, with a lack of quality and seeking unanimity, should be avoided in investment decisions.

投资组合管理人拥有一个强大的团队来提供关于买入股票和应该卖出股票的建议,这一点非常重要。

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It is very important that the portfolio manager has a strong team around him or her to give input on stocks to buy and stocks that he or she should have sold.

总的来说,团队应该给他们施加压力,以帮助他们避免锚定偏差(anchoring bias: 倾向于过度依赖最初获得的信息进行决策)、损失厌恶偏差(loss aversion bias: 倾向于避免损失而非获取同等收益)以及其他行为陷阱。

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In general, the team should give them a hard time to help them avoid anchoring bias, loss aversion bias, and other behavioral traps.

例如,日本的一位管理人有一个“作战室”,团队的观点在那里被充分表达,意见独立发表。

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For example, one manager in Japan has a 'war room' where views from the team are aired out and opinions are expressed independently.

总的来说,我们寻求识别在各个层面都根深蒂固的投资文化,偏好亲力亲为、积极主动的投资者。

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In general, we seek to identify an investment culture that is embedded at all levels, preferring hands-on, active investors.

我们正在寻找这样的人,鉴于我们不看过去的业绩记录,我们可以寻找优秀的团队和优秀的投资组合管理人,这与许多其他资产配置者不同。

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We are searching for such individuals, and given that we don't look at track records, we can look for good teams and good portfolio managers, unlike many other allocators out there.

我们经常发现充满活力的团队,他们专注于向世界展示巨大的潜力,相信只要我们长期承诺,他们就会成功。

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We often find hungry teams focused on showing the world their large potential, confident that they will succeed given the long commitment.

对于我们选择的管理人,我们有时间与他们一起成长。

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With the managers we select, we have time to grow with them.

这需要对他们为何创业以及对投资的热情进行深入的尽职调查,而不是仅仅建立组织和团队,给他们提供意见和讨论。

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This requires quite deep diligence into why they started the business and their passion for investing, compared to just building an organization and team, giving them input and discussions.

我们选择合作的决策者和投资组合管理人类型相当多样化,但他们有一些共同的特点。

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The types of decision-makers and portfolio managers we have chosen to invest with are quite diverse, but there are some common characteristics among them.

他们需要对世界有创造性和独特的看法,寻求不同的数据、不同的解释,并能将数字置于语境中。

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They need to have a creative and distinct view of the world, where they seek different data, different interpretations, and can put the numbers into context.

好奇、挑战传统智慧、好问和谦逊至关重要。

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It's essential to be curious, challenge conventional wisdom, be inquisitive, and humble.

他们需要愿意始终寻找新信息,并愿意改变自己的想法。

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They need to be willing to always look for new information and willing to change one's mind.

一位投资组合管理人曾在一周内坐在路边的汽车里进行投资前的思考。

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One portfolio manager sat on road cars for a week before investing.

另一位则坐在轮椅上环游世界,形成自己的观点。

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Another sat in a wheelchair, traveling around the world to make up his own view.

总的来说,他们需要通过自己对市场和公司的分析来寻找信息。

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In general, they need to find information through their own analysis of the market and companies.

在市场动态变化可能导致颠覆的时代,唯一需要远离的信息是内幕信息。

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At a time when changing market dynamics can lead to disruption, the only information to stay away from is inside information.

一位办公室里放着高尔夫球杆的投资组合管理人声称,他获得最佳信息的地方是在高尔夫球场上。

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One portfolio manager with golf clubs in the office claimed that the best information he got was on the golf course.

那是我有史以来最短的一次会议。

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That was one of the shortest meetings I ever had.

持续监控与投资组合优化

外部管理人对有限数量的股票投入巨大的分析能力。

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The external managers apply huge analytical capacity to a limited number of equities.

他们寻求识别具有吸引力估值和积极ESG进展的公司,这些信念应反映在投资组合中。

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They seek to identify companies with attractive valuations and positive ESG progress, and these convictions should be reflected in the portfolio.

我们寻求集中度高的投资组合。

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We seek concentrated portfolios.

我们相信我们选择了特定领域中最好的投资组合管理人,并期望他们承担高市场风险以超越同行。

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We believe we have selected the best portfolio manager in that specific field, and we expect them to take high market risk to outperform the group.

负责选择、终止以及持续回报和风险监控的团队中,还有更多人参与到治理、合规、内部法律顾问、风险管理和衡量、运营以及定期审查一切的内部和外部审计师的工作中。

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The group responsible for selection, termination, and ongoing return and risk involves many more of us who are involved in monitoring governance, compliance, internal legal advisers, risk management and measurement, operations, and internal and external auditors who regularly review everything.

但更专注于我们所做的事情,鉴于我们所有的委托都采用独立账户,我们每天都可以通过数据库访问所有持仓和投资组合的变化。

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But focusing more on what we do, given that all our mandates are on segregated accounts, we have daily access to all holdings and changes in the portfolio through a database.

我们利用这些数据上的多种监控工具,这对于监控每个管理人的表现、风险、交易和持仓至关重要。

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We use several monitoring tools on this data, which is crucial for monitoring each manager's performance, risk, trading, and holdings.

例如,交易分析涉及结合表现和经纪人估算来检查管理人何时买卖股票。

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For example, trading analysis involves examining when managers buy and sell stocks in combination with performance and broker estimates.

这通过与管理人的讨论来评估他们是否正在执行其策略和理念,从而将其置于语境中。

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This is put into context through discussions with the managers to evaluate if they are executing their strategies and philosophies.

投资组合管理人是动量型投资者吗?他或她何时增加头寸?他们是否利用市场波动进行交易?他们是否愿意修正投资论点并改变投资组合?

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Is the portfolio manager a momentum player? When is he or she increasing a position? Are they utilizing market volatility to trade the position? Are they willing to revise their investment thesis and change the portfolio?

停滞不前的投资组合是一个危险信号,也是我们会进一步调查的问题。

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Stale portfolios are a red flag and something we would investigate further.

市场变化非常剧烈,我们期望我们的管理人调整他们的投资组合。

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Markets change quite drastically, and we expect our managers to adjust their portfolios.

此外,这个数据库可以追溯到1998年,这为我们提供了关于他们何时以及如何跑输或跑赢大盘,以及我们应该如何考虑组合管理人、增加资金、终止委托等方面的庞大数据集。

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Furthermore, this database stretches back to 1998, which gives us a huge dataset on when and how they underperform or outperform, and how we should think about combining managers, increasing funding, terminating mandates, etc.

因此,我们的重点是根据我们对投资组合的了解、与管理人的定期会议以及对投资组合的分析来优化投资组合管理人。

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So, our focus is to optimize portfolio managers based on our knowledge of the portfolio, regular meetings with managers, and analysis of the portfolios.

目标是最大化每美元费用的预期回报。

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The aim is to maximize expected return per dollar of fee.

一个额外的管理人可能会带来超额表现,但也可能使我们更接近指数化投资组合,这只是一种昂贵的做法。

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An additional manager may bring excess performance but may also bring us closer to an indexed portfolio, which is just an expensive way of doing it.

我们非常积极地管理投资组合。

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We manage the portfolio quite actively.

平均而言,我们每年有14个新的委托和10个终止。

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On average, we have 14 new managers and 10 terminations every year.

40%的终止是由于投资组合管理人周围的重大变化,例如他们离职或扩大覆盖范围。

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40% of terminations are due to significant changes around the portfolio manager, such as them leaving or expanding coverage.

另有40%是由于我们错误的筛选,或者我们对他们未来的超额表现不再那么确信。

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Another 40% is due to wrong selection on our part or us being less convinced about their future excess performance for some reason.

20%是由于策略转变,例如退出行业管理人或区域管理人。

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20% is due to shifting strategy, such as moving out of sector managers or regional managers.

我们最短的委托是两周——那是一位在签署协议后立即离职的投资组合管理人。

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The shortest mandate we had was two weeks—that was a portfolio manager who left right after signing the agreement.

最长的是一个自2001年以来的英国小型股委托。

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The longest is a UK small-cap mandate we've had since 2001.

平均而言,我们持有委托的时间略超过4年,而目前委托的平均持有时间在6到7年之间。

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On average, we hold mandates for a bit over 4 years, and the average holding of today's mandates is between 6 and 7 years.

因此,我们利用选定市场细分领域的专家,运用深入的基本面研究。

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So, we use experts in selected market segments, utilizing deep fundamental research.

我们偏好小型和私有制机构,偏好单一投资组合管理人而非团队运作的投资组合或投资委员会。

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We prefer small and privately owned organizations, and prefer single portfolio managers versus team-run portfolios or investment committees.

我们会在现场会见整个组织。

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We meet the whole organization on-site.

在监控过程中,我们寻找管理人和团队的某些特定特征。

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We look for specific characteristics in managers and their teams during the monitoring process.

📌 文中提及的人物和组织

人物: Brad Pitt

公司/组织: Norges Bank Investment Management

媒体/书籍: Moneyball