《参考信息》第564期:辽宁官场腐败、乡村振兴、物价低迷与人口挑战 睡前消息 2026-02-09

辽宁官场腐败侵蚀营商环境

近期,辽宁省在优化营商环境方面取得显著成效,但同时也暴露出一系列突出问题。其中,政府窗口工作人员的腐败行为尤为引人注目。一名住房和城乡建设厅的工作人员在八年间,通过推诿审批、设置障碍等手段,非法收受贿赂高达1614万元人民币。此事件引发了公众的强烈愤慨,并对住房和城乡建设系统破坏营商环境的行为提出了严厉批评。

为应对此问题,辽宁省委巡视组于去年10月至今年1月对省住房和城乡建设厅党组进行了专项巡视。巡视组共发现773个问题,并提出了1310条整改意见。具体案例中,一名驻扎在政务服务大厅的审批工作人员,故意拖延审批时间,并以各种借口刁难不给“好处费”的办事人员。该工作人员在四年内,通过投资建设项目审批,累计收受贿赂1614万元。

此外,该问题还体现在对企业的过度干预和重复处罚上。某项目在14个月的建设周期内,先后被省、市、区三级住建部门共计16次“指导”,最短间隔仅三天。某区住建局在三年内,因同一原因(未达标)五次对某投资项目进行处罚,甚至在一天内连罚四次,理由是之前的罚款不足以弥补。一名执法人员在两个月内,对同一房地产项目检查了九次,提出的整改意见基本一致。

这些行为导致了企业运营成本的急剧增加。以1614万元的贿赂总额计算,平均每年超过200万元,平均每天近1万元。即使按照每个项目1万元的“好处费”计算,也涉及3200个审批项目;若按每个项目1万元计算,则涉及1600多个项目。即使按最低的8万元一次计算,也仍有200多起案例。许多企业和市民反映,如果能在较低层级解决问题,就不会面临如此复杂的“寻租”困境。这种权力滥用,通过简单的审批拖延即可获取巨额贿赂,且长达八年未被发现和纠正,严重损害了公平竞争的市场环境。

Original English

Recently, Liaoning Province has achieved significant results in optimizing the business environment, but at the same time, a series of prominent problems have been exposed. Among them, the corruption of government window staff is particularly noteworthy. A staff member of the Housing and Urban Rural Development Department accepted bribes totaling 16.14 million RMB over eight years by delaying approvals and creating obstacles. This incident has sparked strong public outrage and severe criticism against the Housing and Urban Rural Development system for damaging the business environment.

To address this issue, the Liaoning Provincial Party Committee's inspection team conducted a special inspection of the party group of the Provincial Housing and Urban Rural Development Department from October last year to January this year. The inspection team identified 773 problems and proposed 1310 rectification opinions. In a specific case, an approval staff member stationed at the government service hall deliberately delayed approval times and used various excuses to make things difficult for those who did not offer bribes. This staff member collected 16.14 million RMB in bribes over four years through investment project approvals.

Furthermore, this problem is also reflected in the excessive intervention and repeated penalties imposed on enterprises. A certain project was "guided" 16 times by provincial, municipal, and district housing and urban development departments within a 14-month construction period, with the shortest interval being only three days. A district housing and urban development bureau fined a certain investment project five times in three years for the same reason (not meeting standards), and even fined it four times in one day on the grounds that previous fines were insufficient. A law enforcement officer inspected a real estate project nine times in two months for the same reason, with basically identical rectification opinions.

These actions have led to a sharp increase in enterprise operating costs. Calculated based on the total bribe amount of 16.14 million RMB, the average annual amount is over 2 million RMB, and the average daily amount is nearly 10,000 RMB. Even if calculated at 10,000 RMB per project as a "bribe," it involves 3,200 approval projects; if calculated at 10,000 RMB per bribe, it involves over 1,600 projects. Even if calculated at a minimum of 80,000 RMB per bribe, there are still over 200 cases. Many enterprises and citizens have reported that if problems could be resolved at lower levels, they would not face such complex "rent-seeking" difficulties. This abuse of power, which allows for obtaining huge sums of money through simple approval delays, and which went undiscovered and uncorrected for eight years, has severely damaged the fair competitive market environment.

巩固脱贫成果与乡村振兴的常态化

中央一号文件首次提出常态化、精细化脱贫攻坚(Poverty Alleviation: 旨在消除贫困,提高贫困人口生活水平的政策和行动),聚焦健全常态化帮扶政策体系,提升监测帮扶的精准性和有效性,增强产业就业帮扶的实效,并为欠发达地区提供分层分类的帮扶。

截至2023年底,辽宁省已宣布完成脱贫攻坚目标任务,并设立了为期五年的过渡期(2021-2025年),旨在巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果,有效衔接乡村振兴。过渡期内,农业农村部披露,已累计排查监测对象85%以上,有效防范了返贫风险。剩余地区也实施了精准帮扶措施,32个贫困县(市、区)培育了2-3个主导产业,85%以上的脱贫户和监测户至少获得一项产业帮扶措施。过去五年,贫困人口就业规模稳定在3000万人以上,保障了三分之二以上脱贫家庭的收入稳定。

中央单位与东部省市累计投入帮扶资金1611.11亿元,购买和销售农产品751.5亿元。中央农村工作领导小组副组长、办公室主任韩俊(Han Jun: 现任中国国务院副总理,曾任中央农村工作领导小组副组长)强调,虽然过渡期任务已完成,但巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果是一项长期任务。常态化帮扶需纳入乡村振兴总体战略并有效落实,以守住不发生规模性返贫的底线。

今年的中央一号文件明确要求将常态化帮扶纳入乡村振兴战略,保持财政投入、金融支持、资源配置等政策的总体稳定。韩俊指出,这意味着要避免上述三个方面出现“急转弯”。过去,一些摘帽的贫困县在实现全面脱贫后,政策支持便随之取消。而现在,国家将识别一批国家和省级乡村振兴重点帮扶县,并优化支持政策和激励机制,健全防止返贫动态监测和帮扶机制。

韩俊介绍,将重点围绕160个国家级和部分省级乡村振兴重点帮扶县,在财政、资金、人才等方面继续给予倾斜支持。一号文件还提出,要推进区域和跨区域重大基础设施建设,组织实施医疗、教育、人才等领域帮扶,选派科技特派团,拓展东西部协作范围,调整优化中央单位定点帮扶关系,改进考核评价办法。

Original English

The Central Document No. 1 for the first time proposed normalized and targeted poverty alleviation, focusing on improving the normalized poverty alleviation policy system, enhancing the accuracy and effectiveness of monitoring and assistance, strengthening the effectiveness of industrial and employment assistance, and providing stratified and categorized assistance to underdeveloped areas.

By the end of 2023, Liaoning Province announced the completion of its poverty alleviation goals and established a five-year transition period (2021-2025) to consolidate and expand the achievements of poverty alleviation and effectively connect them with rural revitalization. During the transition period, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs disclosed that over 85% of monitoring targets have been cumulatively identified, effectively preventing the risk of returning to poverty. Remaining areas have implemented targeted assistance measures, with 32 poverty-stricken counties (cities, districts) cultivating 2-3 leading industries, and over 85% of formerly impoverished households and monitored households receiving at least one industrial assistance measure. Over the past five years, the employment scale of the impoverished population has remained stable at over 30 million people, ensuring stable income for over two-thirds of impoverished families.

Central units and eastern provinces and municipalities have cumulatively invested 161.11 billion RMB in assistance funds and purchased and sold agricultural products worth 75.15 billion RMB. Han Jun, Deputy Director of the Central Rural Work Leading Group Office and Director of the Central Rural Affairs Office, emphasized that although the transition period tasks have been completed, consolidating and expanding the achievements of poverty alleviation is a long-term task. Normalized assistance must be included in the overall strategy of rural revitalization and effectively implemented to maintain the bottom line of preventing large-scale return to poverty.

This year's Central Document No. 1 clearly states that normalized assistance should be included in the overall strategy of rural revitalization, maintaining overall stability in policies such as fiscal investment, financial support, and resource allocation. Han Jun pointed out that this means avoiding "sharp turns" in the aforementioned three areas. In the past, some poverty-stricken counties that were removed from the list lost policy support after achieving comprehensive poverty alleviation. Now, the country will identify a number of national and provincial-level key rural revitalization counties, optimize support policies and incentive mechanisms, and improve the dynamic monitoring and assistance mechanism for preventing return to poverty.

Han Jun introduced that concentrated support in terms of finance, funding, and talent will continue to be provided, focusing on 160 national-level and some provincial-level key rural revitalization counties. Document No. 1 also proposes promoting regional and interregional major infrastructure construction, organizing and implementing assistance in fields such as healthcare, education, and talent, selecting and dispatching science and technology task forces, expanding the scope of East-West cooperation, adjusting and optimizing the designated support relationships of central government units, and improving assessment and evaluation methods.

低通胀陷阱与价格温和反弹的必要性

近期,一篇由国家发展改革委价格监测中心主任张永军(Zhang Yongjun: 文章中提及的作者,但其职位描述为“市场与价格研究室主任”,此处为推测其为作者)撰写的评论文章,呼吁实现价格的合理回升。文章指出,中国自2023年10月以来,生产者价格指数(PPI)转负,消费者价格指数(CPI)也逐步回落至零附近,部分观点认为已出现通货紧缩。然而,官方口径和学术界最终提出了“低通胀陷阱”的概念。

中央银行的货币政策执行报告中,自2023年底以来,已多次提出“保持物价在合理水平”。文章强调,近年来中国物价运行在低位,中央高度重视,反复提出要促进价格温和上涨。文章认为,必须深刻认识中央对当前经济形势的判断,准确把握价格运行规律和问题,实施更积极有效的宏观经济政策,逐步推动物价水平回归合理区间。

文章批评了一些对低价运行的片面理解,例如认为“价格下降能提高居民购买力、降低企业生产成本、改善出口竞争力、释放宏观政策空间,是‘赢赢赢’局面”。作者认为,持续的价格下跌会扭曲人们对未来经济趋势的预期,形成“低价-低消费-低利润-低收入”的恶性循环。这种循环将导致企业销售收入下降、利润减少、实际利率上升、融资成本增加、投资意愿减弱。低价虽可能短期提升出口,但会过度消耗国内资源,不一定能增加企业利润。过度依赖低成本竞争,最终将损害国家贸易条件,导致国内实际消费和福利水平下降,名义GDP增速放缓,财政收入增长减弱,各部门实际债务负担加重,宏观政策空间受挤压。

文章分析,当前经济形势复杂,周期性因素与结构性、体制性因素交织。需求侧面临居民收入增长放缓、消费意愿和能力减弱、全球能源矿产价格波动、农产品价格下跌、人口结构变化等抑制消费的因素。供给侧则表现为房地产市场深度调整、部分传统产业产能过剩、新兴产业处于生命周期成熟期、资本涌入和市场竞争加剧,但需求尚未完全匹配供给。体制性因素包括资源要素市场化配置程度不高、要素价格受控等。

尽管如此,文章也强调,当前低价运行并非“滞胀”,无需过度担忧。政策路径不应仅依赖行政干预,而应更多依靠市场化、法治化、制度化手段,如稳定就业和收入、促进市场竞争、理顺价格机制,并改善收入分配体系。

Original English

A recent commentary by Zhang Yongjun, Director of the Market and Price Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), calls for a reasonable rebound in prices. The article points out that since October 2023, China's Producer Price Index (PPI) has turned negative, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has gradually declined to around zero, leading some to believe that deflation has occurred. However, official statements and the academic community have eventually coined the term "low inflation trap."

The central bank's monetary policy implementation reports have repeatedly proposed "maintaining prices at a reasonable level" since the end of 2023. The article emphasizes that Chinese prices have been operating at a low level in recent years, and the central committee attaches great importance to this, repeatedly proposing to promote a reasonable rebound in prices. It argues that it is necessary to thoroughly understand the central committee's assessment of the current economic situation, accurately grasp the laws of price operation and existing problems, and implement more proactive and effective macroeconomic policies to gradually promote the price level back to a reasonable range.

The article criticizes some one-sided understandings of low price operations, such as the idea that "falling prices can increase people's purchasing power, reduce enterprise production costs, improve export competitiveness, and release macroeconomic policy space, making it a win-win situation." The author believes that a sustained decline in prices will distort people's expectations about future economic trends, creating a vicious cycle of "low prices - low consumption - low profits - low incomes." This cycle will lead to decreased sales revenue for businesses, reduced profits, increased real interest rates, higher financing costs, and decreased investment willingness. While low prices may lead to a short-term increase in exports, they will excessively deplete domestic resources and will not necessarily lead to increased corporate profits. Over-reliance on low-cost competition will ultimately lead to a deterioration in the country's terms of trade, causing a decline in domestic real consumption and welfare levels, a slowdown in nominal GDP growth, reduced fiscal revenue growth, increased actual debt burden for various economic sectors, and a reduction in fiscal policy space.

The article analyzes that the current economic situation is complex, with cyclical factors intertwined with underlying structural and systemic factors. The demand side faces factors suppressing consumption, including slower growth in household income, weakened consumer willingness and ability, fluctuations in global energy and mineral prices, declines in agricultural product prices, and demographic changes. The supply side is characterized by deep adjustments in the real estate market, overcapacity in some traditional industries, new industries entering maturity stages of their life cycle, a large influx of capital, and intensified market competition, while demand has not yet fully matched supply. Systemic factors include the low degree of market-based allocation of resources such as water, electricity, and gas, and the fact that factor prices are subject to control.

Despite this, the article also emphasizes that the current low price level does not constitute "stagflation" and there is no need for undue concern. The policy path should not simply rely on direct administrative intervention in prices, but rather more on market-oriented, rule-of-law, and institutionalized means, such as stabilizing employment and income, promoting market competition, and rationalizing price mechanisms. It also emphasizes the need to improve the income distribution system.

汽车市场新变局:政策调整与结构性挑战

近期,中国汽车市场的销售表现呈现出复杂态势。1月份,汽车销量约为180万辆,同比增长0.3%,但环比下降11.4%。其中,新能源汽车销量约10万辆,渗透率为44.4%,较上月近60%的水平显著下降。

主要汽车品牌销量走势分化,多数品牌环比下降。吉利(Geely: 中国知名汽车制造商)以27.02万辆的销量位居国产车销量榜首,同比增长1%,环比增长14%。比亚迪(BYD: 中国领先的新能源汽车制造商)销量为20万辆,同比下降30%,环比下降50%。合资品牌在经历近年来的普遍挣扎后,部分品牌如上汽大众(SAIC Volkswagen: 上汽集团与大众汽车的合资企业)、上汽通用(SAIC-GM: 上汽集团与通用汽车的合资企业)等在1月份呈现复苏迹象,这得益于燃油车的稳定表现和新能源汽车的突破。

海外市场已成为国内车企的第二增长曲线。奇瑞(Chery)、吉利、比亚迪、上汽等出口增长均超40%,出口占比持续提升。全球化发展成为抵消国内短期波动的重要支撑。

本年初表现疲软的主要原因在于政策调整。新能源汽车购置税减免政策从“免征”调整为“减半征收”,虽然税收减免上限仍为1.5万元,但购车成本显著增加。此外,地方政府的补贴政策也发生变化。此前,购买新能源汽车有2万元补贴,燃油车有0.5万元补贴,对有购车刚需的消费者非常有利。新政策下,新能源汽车补贴比例降至12%,燃油车补贴比例不变(0.5万元),但新能源汽车需达到16.67万元以上才能享受2万元补贴,10万元左右的车型仅能获得1.2万元补贴,对刚需消费者影响较大。

加之去年年底车企和经销商的大规模促销活动提前透支了部分需求,1月份经销商库存预警指数为69.4%,远超70%的预警线。多数经销商反映同比客流和订单量下滑。行业整体销售利润率在2023年降至1.8%,为历史低点。随着政策补贴的结束,汽车行业正面临真正的市场考验。

Original English

Recently, sales performance in China's automotive market has shown a complex trend. In January, vehicle sales were around 1.8 million units, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, but a month-on-month decrease of 11.4%. Among these, new energy vehicle (NEV) sales were around 100,000 units, with a penetration rate of 44.4%, a significant decrease from nearly 60% in the previous month.

Sales trends for major car brands diverged, with overall declines compared to the previous month. Geely surpassed BYD with 270,200 units sold, topping the domestic car sales chart with a 1% year-on-year increase and a 14% increase compared to the previous month. BYD sold 200,000 units, a 30% year-on-year decrease and a 50% decrease compared to the previous month. Joint venture brands, after generally struggling in recent years, have shown signs of recovery in January, with leading brands such as SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC-GM showing recovery trends, due to the stable performance of gasoline vehicles and breakthroughs in new energy vehicles.

Overseas markets have become the second growth curve for domestic car manufacturers. Chery, Geely, BYD, and SAIC have all experienced export growth exceeding 40%, with the proportion of exports continuing to rise. The further development of globalization has become an important support for offsetting short-term fluctuations in the domestic market.

The main reason for the weak start to the year is policy adjustments. The purchase tax exemption for new energy vehicles has been adjusted from a full exemption to a 50% reduction. Although the tax reduction limit is still 15,000 RMB, the cost of buying a car has increased significantly. Furthermore, local government subsidy policies have also changed. Previously, there was a subsidy of 20,000 RMB for purchasing NEVs and 5,000 RMB for gasoline vehicles, which was very favorable for those with a strong need to buy a car costing just over 100,000 RMB. The subsidy accounted for over 20% of the car price. The new policy, however, offers a 12% subsidy for NEVs for the portion of the price above 166,700 RMB, with the corresponding subsidy for gasoline vehicles remaining at 5,000 RMB. However, NEVs must cost at least 166,700 RMB to receive the full 20,000 RMB subsidy; a 100,000 RMB vehicle only receives 12,000 RMB, negatively impacting those with strong purchasing needs.

In addition, at the end of last year, there was a large-scale sales promotion by car manufacturers and dealers, preempting some of the demand for early 2024. The dealer inventory warning index in January was 69.4%, remaining above the warning limit of 70%. Most dealers reported a year-on-year decline in store traffic and order volume. The industry's overall sales profit margin fell to 1.8% in 2023, a historical low, with the 1.8% profit margin in December also marking a recent low point. With the end of policy subsidies, the auto industry is facing a true market test.

宁波医疗事故暴露医疗质量管理短板

去年底备受关注的宁波“特需婴儿”医疗事件,官方调查结果于2月6日公布,定性为一级医疗事故。宁波市妇儿医院院长被免职,主刀医生执业证书被吊销。患儿家属质疑术前诊断,专家指出,女孩心脏问题本可自行愈合,术后缝合伤口出血导致失血是死亡主因。医院的医疗报告造假,最终导致一条生命的逝去。

由宁波多部门组成的调查组认定,这是一起医院负主要责任的一级医疗事故。医院的疏忽包括:术前诊断先天性心脏病依据不足;未进行多学科讨论;术前评估不充分;手术方式和入路选择不当;以及手术并发症(如房性心动激惹)和手术时间过长。其他疏忽还包括术中意外情况处理和通知不及时、术后麻醉下病情变化预测和理解不足、术后监护不足以及治疗不及时。这些疏忽与患儿术后因心力衰竭、呼吸衰竭死亡之间存在直接因果关系。

报告还提到,患儿存在房间隔缺损、肺动脉高压、单肺静脉回流变异等情况,房间隔缺损靠近右肺静脉和下腔静脉开口,增加了手术难度和风险,这与死亡也有一定关联。此外,医院在医疗质量安全管理制度、工作机制落实、风险防范意识与能力、应急处置能力、医患沟通、人文关怀等方面均存在不足。

此次事件也凸显了医疗行业面临的深层趋势:医疗资源日益紧张,医务人员执业环境日趋困难。医生面临不追绩效、休假难、发薪难的困境,同时还要应对手术指征和伦理风险的挑战。

Original English

The highly publicized "special needs infant" medical incident in Ningbo at the end of last year, the official investigation results were released on February 6th, classifying it as a Class I medical malpractice incident. The director of Ningbo Fourth Hospital was dismissed, and the chief surgeon's license was revoked. The family of the premature baby girl initially questioned the preoperative diagnosis, and experts pointed out that the girl's heart problem could have healed on its own without surgery, and the failure to suture the surgical wound after the operation, leading to blood loss, was the key cause of death. The hospital's medical report was falsified, resulting in the death of a human life.

The investigation team, composed of multiple departments in Ningbo, concluded that it was a Class I medical malpractice incident with the hospital bearing primary responsibility. The hospital's negligence included: insufficient basis for the preoperative diagnosis of congenital heart disease; failure to conduct a multidisciplinary discussion; insufficient preoperative assessment; inappropriate selection of the surgical procedure and approach; and surgical complications, leading to an excessively long surgery time. Other negligence included inadequate and untimely handling and notification of unexpected situations during surgery, insufficient prediction and understanding of the severity and changes in the patient's condition after anesthesia, inadequate postoperative monitoring, and insufficient and untimely treatment. These instances of negligence have a direct causal relationship with the patient's death due to heart failure and respiratory failure after anesthesia.

The report also mentioned that the patient had a mixed atrial septal defect, pulmonary hypertension, and a single pulmonary vein trunk variation, with the atrial septal defect close to the right pulmonary vein and inferior vena cava opening, increasing the difficulty and risk of the surgery, which also had a certain correlation with the death. In addition, the hospital had problems such as imperfect medical quality and safety management systems, inadequate implementation of work mechanisms, insufficient awareness and stability in medical risk prevention and emergency handling, poor communication with patients, and delays in humanistic care beyond the incident itself.

The incident also highlights underlying trends worth noting: declining financial resources and increasingly difficult conditions for medical professionals. Doctors face a dilemma of not pursuing performance, difficulty in taking leave, and inability to pay salaries, while also facing challenges in surgical indications and ethical risks.

人口结构变化与婚姻生育教育的政策呼吁

中国人口在2023年减少977万,学者估计总和生育率已降至1以下。低生育率的浪潮正从日韩等东亚经济体蔓延至东南亚和南亚。尽管日本的生育率长期被诟病,但其在东亚国家和地区中仍属较高水平。西方国家用了两百多年才达到2.1的更替水平生育率,而中国仅用了45年,2023年生育率降至1.9。印尼生育率也从1970年代的5.5降至2021年的2.2,徘徊在更替水平边缘,预示低生育率可能成为普遍问题。

当前,各地“两会”正在召开,如何鼓励年轻人婚育成为代表委员的普遍关切。内蒙古自治区政协委员杜丽萍(Du Liping: 内蒙古自治区政协委员)建议,将正确的婚恋观纳入高等教育课程,引导年轻人树立理性健康的婚恋观,以提升生育率。她指出,大学生对婚育的认知普遍薄弱,而中国面临严峻的老龄化和持续下降的生育率。因此,必须加强大学生婚恋价值观的培养,以解决思想观念上的障碍。

福建省人大代表、共青团福建省委书记陈立(Chen Li: 福建省人大代表,共青团福建省委书记)建议,倡导年轻人树立积极的婚育观,为福建高质量发展注入人口活力。受社会思潮影响,年轻人“成家立业、传宗接代”的传统价值观逐渐式微。一些年轻人对婚育存在恐惧心理,或不愿结婚生育。部分地区高额彩礼和铺张婚礼增加了年轻人的心理负担。一些城市房价高企,育儿、教育、医疗等刚性支出占收入比重高,成为婚育主要顾虑。陈立建议,共青团和相关政府部门应作为主体,加强价值引导,倡导积极婚育观,通过传统文化元素(如闽南家庭传统、孝道文化)进行宣传,讲述年轻人婚姻幸福故事,推广“零彩礼”婚礼经验。同时,优化网络环境,减少负面信息推送。

此外,还需着力降低成本,解决年轻人婚育顾虑,改善服务保障,提供婚介服务,搭建平台拓宽婚恋交友渠道。早在2017年,《国家人口发展规划(2016-2020年)》就提出将婚育教育纳入高等教育体系,但大学生结婚意愿持续下降。

去年中央全会通过的“十五五”规划,以及年底中央经济工作会议,均提出倡导积极婚育观,努力稳定出生人口规模。许多高校已开设相关课程。将婚姻教育融入思政课,教育部网站近期文章提到,高校思想政治理论课教师将纳入专职岗位,平均收入高于其他学科教师。

Original English

China's population decreased by 9.77 million in 2023, and scholars estimate the total fertility rate has fallen below 1. The first wave of declining birth rates has spread from declining Asian economies like Japan and South Korea to Southeast Asia and South Asia. Although Japan's fertility rate has been ridiculed for twenty years, it is still relatively high among East Asian countries and regions. Western countries took over two hundred years to reach a fertility rate of 2.1 (replacement level), while China took only 45 years, with the fertility rate falling to 1.9 in 2023. Indonesia's rate dropped from over 5.5 in the 1970s to 2.2 in 2021, hovering on the edge of the replacement level, suggesting that low fertility may become a widespread problem.

Currently, local "two sessions" meetings are being held, and persuading young people to marry and have children has become a common concern among representatives and committee members. Du Liping, a member of the Inner Mongolia Political Consultative Conference, proposed incorporating correct views on marriage and love into the higher education curriculum to guide young people in establishing rational and healthy perceptions of marriage and to help improve the birth rate. She pointed out that college students have very weak understanding about marriage and having children, while China faces a serious aging population and a continuously declining birth rate. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the cultivation of marriage values among college students to address the primary ideological barrier.

Chen Li, a representative of the Fujian Provincial People's Congress and Secretary of the Fujian Provincial Committee of the Communist Youth League, suggested advocating for young people to establish positive views on marriage and childbirth to inject vitality into the high-quality development of Fujian's population. Under the influence of social trends, the traditional values of starting a family, pursuing a career, and having children for future generations are gradually weakening. Some young people have a fear of marriage and childbirth, or are unwilling to marry or have children at all. High bride prices and extravagant weddings in some counties and cities have further increased the psychological burden on young people regarding marriage. In some cities, housing costs are high, and expenses such as childcare, education, and medical care account for a large proportion of income, making these three costs the main concerns. Chen Li suggested strengthening value guidance and advocating for positive marriage views with the Communist Youth League and relevant government departments as main bodies. Publicity should be carried out integrating traditional elements such as Fujian family traditions and filial piety culture, telling good stories of young people's marital happiness, and promoting the experience of "zero bride price" weddings. It is also necessary to optimize the online environment and promote online social platforms to reduce the algorithms' push of negative information about childbirth to young people.

Furthermore, it is necessary to focus on reducing costs, addressing young people's concerns about marriage and childbirth, and improving service guarantees, such as supporting matchmaking services, building exclusive platforms, and broadening channels for young people to find partners for marriage and family. In fact, as early as 2017, the National Population Development Plan (2016-2025) mentioned incorporating marriage and family education into the higher education system, but the willingness of college students to marry has continued to decline.

The 15th Five-Year Plan, passed at the fourth plenary session of the Central Committee last year, and the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of the year, advocated for positive marriage views and striving to stabilize the size of the newborn population in recent years. Many universities have already offered relevant courses on marriage and family education. Integrating marriage education into political science courses: a recent article on the Ministry of Education's website mentioned that universities have explicitly stipulated that teachers in political science-related disciplines will be placed in specialized positions to ensure their average income is higher than the average income of teachers in other departments. The institute has also established a fund to provide subsidies for further education and attract high-level talent. In addition, many universities have implemented measures to ensure that the income of political science teachers is not lower than the average income of all teachers at the university.

关键字: corruption business-environment poverty-alleviation economic-policy demographics