Host: Bessma Mmani is a professor of political science at the University of Wateroo and a senior fellow at the center for international governance innovation. Bessma, great to see you. How are you doing?

Bessma Mmani: Doing well, thanks.

Host: This is Iraq all over again. It's a phrase that's been repeatedly heard since the US and Israel attacked Iran, implying that this war, if it stretches on, Iran will be worse off than before. Your thoughts on that?

Bessma Mmani: Well, I mean, there are a lot of similarities. You can't help it. I mean, it's just so vivid to me, too, uh, the war in Iraq. I mean, the one thing I think stood out was this idea, if you recall, in the Iraq war, you know, Ahmed Shalabi kept telling the administration at the time that, you know, they will greet us with flowers. And this was a, um, you know, basically a sentiment that the dictators fall will just usher in a wave of popular support in favor of the occupying power. And so, I think we saw that analogy as well. And a lot of folks, including many members of the Iranian diaspora, were really hoping that this would be certainly that case and there was some cheering on of intervention. Uh, but I think what Iraq has taught us is that frankly regime change is hard. Um, you can't do it just from the air. It requires boots on the ground and I don't think there's appetite for that in either the Israelis or the Americans in the case of Iran. And more importantly, um, that once you break down society, um, which is some of the worrying signs we see, uh, you know, hitting the oil refineries, starting to hit some of the critical infrastructure, that is really, uh, when things start to disintegrate very quickly. We saw this also in Serbia. Uh, you cannot, uh, frankly, do that with, or in the case of Kosovo, to be exact. You cannot do this and expect the people to, uh, rise up and and and bring you flowers when you've destroyed their country. And this is a challenge that we're seeing throughout Iran today. Some historic sites in Isfahan have been hit. I mean, these are these are prized gems of the Iranian people. And to see not only refineries and and and, you know, critical infrastructure that they need to build a new nation, um, but also their their key historic sites being targeted is absolutely horrendous.

Host: Help our viewers understand. Do the US and Israel want the same things when it comes to Iran?

Bessma Mmani: I don't think so. And we're getting a little more information now coming from both capitals. You know, I think Washington, uh, wants a quick victory war. I think that analogy of wanting to see a Venezuela type victory here again, really take out the leader. In this case, you know, killing, uh, of Kamei and that there would be some sort of Darcy Rodriguez equivalent in, you know, akin to Venezuela coming out of the Iranian regime, who could be, uh, working alongside and and just really follow the commands of Donald Trump and certainly sell its oil, all that. Um, I think the Israelis on the other hand, and we've seen some reports coming out of of Tel Aviv, something to the effect of frankly, the disintegration of Iran is fine with us. Uh, the idea here is to weaken it, and nothing makes it weaker than seeing the country disintegrate. And so there are a lot of, you know, I think conflicting reports here. Uh, there's also a lot of interesting comments that have come out, uh, about disagreements between Washington, uh, and Tel Aviv and and saying that, for example, the, um, hitting of the oil refinery inside Tehran was something that the Israelis wanted, and then the Americans came back and told them, do not do that. That is not in our interest because again, they want a regime to survive. They want a regime change and or collapse, but they don't necessarily want to not have a counterpart in the country that they can talk to.

Host: You recently wrote in the Globe and Mail about the use of artificial intelligence in the war in Iran. You have some concerns around accountability. What are they?

Bessma Mmani: Um, they're huge concerns and I think it's, uh, frightening because if anybody's been following what's been happening with Anthropic and the Pentagon, um, you really get a full, you know, full, uh, disclosure here of, of what is the internal battle. I mean, the Americans, I, I can't reiterate this enough. The excitement that is coming out of the Department of War and Pete Hegs for this war is frightening and, uh, they want to not be constrained by, uh, contractors and suppliers. Uh, in the case of Anthropic, they, uh, have long had a rule in, um, in their agreement with them to not allow, um, fully autonomous, uh, weapons being used. Uh, in other words, you can't just, from, you know, command central, say, we're going to hit a thousand targets, which, by the way, this was the case. A thousand targets, no human in the loop. Um, and, uh, you know, uh, be what may. And and this is where, frankly, faulty information and faulty intelligence of the location of the school. Uh, it has now become very clear that that school that was hit on day one, uh, had not been updated in 10 years. Intelligence that that school was no longer part of the adjacent military base. And, uh, this is why these errors happen because there's no human in the loop checking to make sure that, um, you know, targets are not just accurate, but that they're worth it. Um, and and so again, there's a lot of, um, fear I have and a lot of technologists who have been sounding the alarm that allowing AI and, you know, machine learning and and other autonomous type weapon systems in war is when we start to dehumanize the other to the point of not seeing lives being lost there as anything but collateral damage. And and we see this, you know, time and time again. Um, and I'm very, very afraid of where we're going with this, uh, technology if there's no regulations and guardrails put in place.

Host: You did mention boots on the ground. So, I do have to ask, you know, some may argue that using AI could actually reduce the number of casualties in war by limiting the number of soldiers on the ground there. Does that complicate the the picture when we talk about accountability?

Bessma Mmani: Very much so. But again, I think, um, you know, it's it's it's almost suggesting that, um, you know, the the boots on the ground are the only lives that matter here. And it's it's frankly the other way around. We know that when there are complete aerial assaults, uh, with no human in the loop, or no human quite literally making eye contact with so-called enemy, uh, or combatant, uh, we're more likely to shoot and kill. And so there is a literal dehumanization that psychologists talk about when these systems are used. And so this is why drone warfare tends to have such a high civilian count because the person that is pressing the button, so to speak, far, far away, does not get to see, you know, the eyes of a person that they may be killing. And that's just the reality of war and human nature. And so I think we are, uh, entering a new phase. As we all know, AI is everywhere, but it's become so highly utilized in warfare, um, without enough of these guardrails. And again, the Trump administration has made it clear they do not want guardrails. They've called these guard rails woke. Uh, they've called them DEI. I mean, again, they just keep throwing around, uh, all of these, uh, words to try to discredit or or make them sound like, you know, that's the only reason why there's ethics involved. Um, but it's just effectively, um, a very war-hungry mentality that we're seeing coming out of Washington today. And and I'm scared for it because at the other end of it are human lives.

Host: I want to talk about, uh, the ripple effects that this war has had on the rest of the region. How will, uh, the Iran war affect, uh, say Gaza?

Bessma Mmani: Well, I mean, Gaza has been out of the news. I mean, it's it, you know, it hasn't stopped, and yet it's out of the news. And frankly, it's expanding into the West Bank. Israeli settlers and Israeli soldiers are depopulating the West Bank. Same thing is happening in southern Lebanon, and it's not in the news.

Host: Talk to me a little bit about the impact. You talked about the refineries, the impact this conflict is having on Russia.

Bessma Mmani: Russia is the key winner out of this. I mean, they got an exemption from the Trump administration to, you know, uh, be able to sell their oil.

Host: Is it short term?

Bessma Mmani: That's what they say. But this is not a conflict that's short-term. I mean, you know, we've only been through this Straight of Hormuz blockage for a couple of, you know, days, maybe, you know, 10 days of a little more than that. But to get things back online again, and to be back to quote unquote normal, we're looking at months, that's months of added revenue that the Russian regime now has to continue its barbaric war against Ukraine.

Host: Besma, we are going to have to leave it there. Really appreciate your insights on this. Thank you so much.

Bessma Mmani: Thank you.