经济与金融领域最具影响力的30本书籍 Adam's Axiom 2025-01-03

1. 《国富论》:亚当·斯密的经济学奠基之作

亚当·斯密的《国富论》(The Wealth of Nations)是开启无数经济学学位和争论的著作。该书于1776年美国宣布独立时出版,斯密则通过这部作品向重商主义(Mercantilism: 一种认为国家财富主要通过贸易顺差积累的经济思想)宣战,发表了历史上最具影响力的经济学“金句”。他提出的“看不见的手”(Invisible Hand: 市场中个体追求自身利益,最终却能促进社会整体利益的现象)概念,如此优雅地解释了市场力量,以至于经济学家们在接下来的200年里都在试图重新将其“缝合”起来。这本书引入了劳动分工(Division of Labor: 将生产过程分解为多个专业化任务)等革命性思想,以一个不起眼的针厂为例来解释生产力。尽管今天的科技公司首席执行官们在假装自己发现了效率的同时,仍然引用着这本书。斯密的核心信息是,自由市场和自利行为可以服务于公共利益,这改变了世界,即使今天的解读略显“贪婪是好事”。然而,当斯密解释市场如何运作时,下一位作者即将向我们展示市场可能如何惊人地失灵。

查看/隐藏英文原文 / View/Hide Original English

The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, the book that launched a thousand economics degrees and probably as many arguments. Published in 1776, when America was declaring independence, Smith was declaring war on mercantilism with the most influential economic mic drop in history. His invisible hand concept explained Market forces so elegantly that economists spent the next 200 years trying to comp at it back up again. The book introduced revolutionary ideas like division of labor, using the humble example of a pin Factory to explain productivity, though today's Tech CEOs still cite it while pretending they discovered efficiency. Smith's Central message that free markets and self-interest could serve the common good change the world, even if today's interpretation is slightly more greed is good. But while Smith was explaining how markets work, our next author was about to show us how spectacularly they could fail.

2. 《就业、利息和货币通论》:凯恩斯主义的诞生

约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯的《就业、利息和货币通论》(The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money)不仅仅是一部经济学杰作,更是历史上最优雅的“我早就告诉过你”的宣言。该书于1936年出版,当时古典经济学家们仍然坚持市场会自我修复,而凯恩斯基本上写了一整本书来反驳他们,言下之意是:“你们有没有试过真正地看看外面?”他革命性的洞见——政府支出可以对抗衰退——就像建议感冒喝鸡汤一样:简单、有效,但不知为何之前没人想到。这本书彻底颠覆了古典经济学,以至于连凯恩斯的对手都不得不承认他有所发现,尽管他们承认得非常非常安静。他理解总需求(Aggregate Demand: 经济中所有商品和服务在特定价格水平下被购买的总量)和就业的框架至今仍在指导政策。但当凯恩斯正在宏观经济学(Macroeconomics: 研究国民经济总体运行及经济变量之间关系的经济学分支)领域掀起革命时,接下来的作者们正准备将人类行为转化为一场数学游戏。

查看/隐藏英文原文 / View/Hide Original English

The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money by John Maynard Keynes isn't just an economic Masterpiece, it's history's most elegant I Told You So. Released in 1936, when classical economists were still insisting markets would fix themselves, Keynes basically wrote an entire book saying, have you tried actually looking outside? His revolutionary Insight that government spending could fight recessions was like suggesting Chicken Soup for a cold, simple, effective, and somehow nobody thought of it earlier. The book demolished classical economics so thoroughly that even kan's Rivals had to admit he was on to something, though they did so very very quietly. His framework for understanding aggregate demand and employment still drives policy today, but while kees was revolutionizing macroeconomics, our next authors were about to turn human behavior into a mathematical game.

3. 《博弈论与经济行为》:将人类行为数学化

约翰·冯·诺伊曼和奥斯卡·摩根斯坦的《博弈论与经济行为》(Theory of Games and Economic Behavior)是当一位数学家和一位经济学家走进酒吧,决定用纯粹的逻辑解释人类行为时发生的故事。该书于1944年出版,将经济学从“有根据的猜测”提升到数学精确的水平,尽管一些经济学家至今仍在从书中的方程式中恢复过来。他们的博弈论(Game Theory: 研究决策者之间互动行为的数学模型)框架解释了一切,从核威慑到为什么你的孩子没有奖励就不打扫房间。这本书改变了我们理解战略决策(Strategic Decision-making: 在考虑到其他参与者可能行动的情况下,选择最佳行动方案的过程)的方式,即使大多数人只是假装理解囚徒困境(Prisoner's Dilemma: 博弈论中的一个经典案例,展示了理性个体在合作困境中的选择)。它的影响远远超出了经济学领域,延伸到心理学、政治学乃至生物学。但当博弈论解释人类理性时,下一位作者即将展示为什么政府不应该对经济放任不管。

查看/隐藏英文原文 / View/Hide Original English

Theory of Games and Economic Behavior by John Von noyman and Oscar Morgan Stern is what happens when a mathematician and an econom walk into a bar and decide to explain human behavior with pure logic. Published in 1944, it took economics from educated guesswork to mathematical Precision, though some economists are still recovering from the equations. Their game theory framework explained everything from nuclear deterrence to why your kids won't clean their room without rewards. The book transformed how we understand strategic decision-making, even if most people only pretend to understand the prisoners dilemma. It's impact reached far beyond economics into psychology, political science, and even biology. But while game theory was explaining human rationality, our next author was about to show why governments shouldn't keep their hands off the economy.

4. 《资本主义与自由》:米尔顿·弗里德曼的自由市场宣言

米尔顿·弗里德曼的《资本主义与自由》(Capitalism and Freedom)是当芝加哥学派厌倦了凯恩斯独占风头时发生的故事。该书于1962年出版,弗里德曼发起了一场思想革命,提出或许政府并非所有问题的解决方案。他对自由市场的辩护如此有力,以至于政治家们至今仍在引用它,通常是在通过另一项法规之后。该书认为经济自由与个人自由密不可分,这改变了政策制定,尽管一些国家似乎错过了这个重点。弗里德曼关于货币政策(Monetary Policy: 中央银行通过控制货币供应量和利率来影响经济的手段)、学校选择(School Choice: 允许家长选择公立、私立或特许学校的教育政策)和浮动汇率(Floating Exchange Rates: 汇率由市场供求关系决定,而非政府固定)的观点,从激进迅速变为主流,比你说出“通货膨胀(Inflation: 货币购买力下降,物价普遍上涨的现象)总是而且无处不在的货币现象”还要快。但当弗里德曼倡导自由市场时,下一位作者即将向我们展示如何真正从中获利。

查看/隐藏英文原文 / View/Hide Original English

Capitalism and Freedom by Milton fredman is what happens when Chicago gets tired of Cane's having all the fun. Published in 1962, fredman launched an intellectual Revolution by suggesting that maybe just maybe the government wasn't the solution to every problem. His defense of free markets was so powerful that politicians still quote it today, usually right after passing another regulation. The books argument that economic freedom is inseparable from personal Liberty transformed policymaking, though some Nations missed the memo. fredman's ideas about monetary policy school choice and floating exchange rates went from radical to mainstream faster than you can say inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. But while fredman was advocating for free markets, our next author was about to show us how to actually profit from them.

5. 《聪明的投资者》:本杰明·格雷厄姆的价值投资入门

本杰明·格雷厄姆的《聪明的投资者》(The Intelligent Investor)相当于投资界的“多吃蔬菜”:枯燥但有益。该书于1949年出版,当时大多数投资者仍在盲目投机,格雷厄姆引入了革命性的概念,比如“也许你应该知道你在买什么”和“不要盲目跟风跳崖”。他的“市场先生”(Mr. Market: 格雷厄姆提出的一个比喻,指代市场情绪化且不可预测的特性)比喻完美地解释了市场心理,以至于治疗师们或许应该将其推荐给日内交易者。这本书关于情绪纪律(Emotional Discipline: 在投资中保持冷静和理性,不受市场情绪影响)和安全边际(Margin of Safety: 投资时买入价格远低于内在价值的资产,以提供保护缓冲)的信息,将年轻的沃伦·巴菲特从一个数字迷变成了世界上最伟大的投资者,尽管格雷厄姆可能没想到他的学生会买下整个公司。但当格雷厄姆教我们“在别人贪婪时恐惧”时,下一位作者即将向我们展示如何发现下一个伟大的成长型股票(Growth Stock: 预期收益和增长速度高于市场平均水平的股票)。

查看/隐藏英文原文 / View/Hide Original English

The intelligent investor by Benjamin Graham is the investment equivalent of being told to eat your vegetables, boring but good for you. Published in 1949, when most investors were still throwing darts at stock Pages, Graham introduced revolutionary Concepts like maybe know what you're buying and don't follow the crowd off a cliff. His m Market metaphor explained Market psychology so perfectly that therapists should probably assign it to day Traders. The book's message about emotional discipline and margin of safety turned a young Warren Buffett from a numbers nerd into the world's greatest investor, though Graham probably didn't expect his student to buy entire companies. But while Graham was teaching us to be fearful when others are greedy, our next author was about to show us how to spot the next great growth stock.

6. 《普通股与不普通利润》:菲利普·费雪的成长型投资圣经

菲利普·费雪的《普通股与不普通利润》(Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits)是当有人意识到与餐厅员工谈论他们的公司比整天盯着电子表格更好时发生的故事。该书于1958年出版,费雪通过提出“实际拜访公司并与员工交谈”等激进想法,彻底改变了投资方式,这在当时是真正开创性的。他著名的“市场传闻法”(Scuttlebutt Method: 通过与公司员工、客户、供应商等进行广泛交流来获取投资信息的方法)基本上是企业间谍活动,只是没有间谍成分,尽管现代合规部门可能会有不同意见。这本书引入了一个激进的观念:成长中的公司可能比那些拥有良好资产负债表但正在衰落的公司更有价值。费雪的“15点分析法”(15 Points for Finding Exceptional Companies: 费雪提出的评估公司质量的15个标准)成为了成长型投资者(Growth Investor: 专注于投资那些预期收入和利润增长速度高于市场平均水平的公司的投资者)的圣经。但当费雪教我们如何识别优质企业时,下一位作者即将向我们展示如何从一英里外发现市场泡沫。

查看/隐藏英文原文 / View/Hide Original English

Common Stocks and uncommon profits by Philip Fischer is what happens when someone realizes talking to cafeteria workers about their company is better than staring at spreadsheets all day. Published in 1958, fer revolutionized investing by suggesting radical ideas like actually visit the company and talk to employees, truly groundbreaking stuff. His famous scuttlebutt method was basically corporate Espionage minus the Espionage, though modern compliance departments might disagree. The book introduced the radical notion that maybe growing companies are worth more than dying ones with good balance sheets. Fisher's 15 points for finding exceptional companies became the growth investors Bible, but while fiser was teaching us about quality businesses, our next author was about to show us how to spot market bubbles from a mile away.

7. 《证券分析》:价值投资的理论基石

本杰明·格雷厄姆和戴维·多德的《证券分析》(Security Analysis)是价值投资(Value Investing: 寻找市场价格低于其内在价值的股票进行投资的策略)的原始圣经,后来催生了《聪明的投资者》。该书于1934年,即市场崩盘后不久出版,这部更具技术性的杰作奠定了现代投资分析的数学基础。虽然格雷厄姆后来为个人投资者撰写了“多吃蔬菜”的版本,但这本是教导华尔街如何真正评估企业价值的研究生(Graduate-level: 指难度和深度达到研究生水平的课程或知识)课程。他们系统化的方法引入了内在价值(Intrinsic Value: 资产基于其未来现金流和风险的真实价值)和安全边际(Margin of Safety: 投资时买入价格远低于内在价值的资产,以提供保护缓冲)等革命性概念,当时股票建议基本上就像算命饼干一样不可靠。但当格雷厄姆和多德创建证券分析的科学时,下一位作者即将通过金融领域最有趣的传记,向我们展示交易的艺术。

查看/隐藏英文原文 / View/Hide Original English

Security analysis by Benjamin Graham and David Dodd is the original Bible of value investing that would later spawn the intelligent investor. Published in 1934, fresh from the market crash, this more technical Masterpiece laid the mathematical foundation for modern investment analysis. While Graham would later write the eat your vegetables version for individual investors, this was The Graduate level course that taught Wall Street how to actually price a business. Their systematic approach introduced revolutionary Concepts like intrinsic value and margin of safety at a time when stock tips were basically fortune cookie readings. But while Graham and Dodd were creating the science of security analysis, our next author was about to show us the art of trading through the most entertaining biography and finance.

8. 《股票作手回忆录》:华尔街的传奇故事

埃德温·勒菲弗的《股票作手回忆录》(Reminiscences of a Stock Operator)是华尔街最伟大的故事,它在技术上并非传记,但绝对是。该书于1923年出版,讲述了杰西·利弗莫尔(以拉里·利文斯顿的化名)的故事,这可能是历史上最昂贵的自传,因为利弗莫尔本人不承认是自己。通过关于桶店(Bucket Shop: 一种非法经纪商,不实际执行客户订单,而是与客户对赌)和市场操纵(Market Corners: 通过控制大量股票供应来推高价格的行为)的虚构故事,它揭示了永恒的智慧,比如“市场永远不会错”和“你最大的敌人是你自己”,尽管利弗莫尔本人悲剧性地证明了后者。这本书关于市场心理和交易的洞察力至今仍具有现实意义,以至于现代对冲基金仍将其发给分析师,希望他们能从利弗莫尔的成功中学习,而不是他悲剧性的结局。但当利弗莫尔教我们交易时,下一位作者即将向我们展示为什么大多数交易者应该只购买指数基金。

查看/隐藏英文原文 / View/Hide Original English

Reminiscences of a stock Operator by Edwin leev is wall Street's greatest story that's technically not a biography but definitely is. Published in 1923, it follows Jesse Livermore disguised as Larry Livingston in what might be history's most expensive autobiography, since Livermore wouldn't admit it was him. Through fictional Tales of bucket shops and Market Corners, it reveals Timeless wisdom like the market is never wrong and your worst enemy is yourself, though Livermore himself tragically proved the latter. The book's insights about Market psychology and trading remain so relevant that modern hedge funds still give it to analysts hoping they'll learn from livermore's triumphs rather than his tragic end. But while Livermore was teaching us about trading, our next author was about to show us why most Traders should just buy index funds.

9. 《当天才失败时》:长期资本管理公司的陨落

罗杰·洛温斯坦的《当天才失败时》(When Genius Failed)讲述了世界上最聪明的数学头脑如何证明,即使在数学方面非常非常出色,也无法阻止你遭受非常非常大的损失。该书讲述了长期资本管理公司(Long-Term Capital Management, LTCM: 一家著名的对冲基金,在1998年因巨额亏损而濒临破产)在1998年惊人地爆炸式崩溃的故事,展示了诺贝尔奖得主们,手持历史上最复杂的模型,如何在比你说“杠杆(Leverage: 借入资金进行投资,以放大潜在收益或损失)是危险的”更快的时间内亏损了40亿美元。这本书揭示了LTCM的“不可能亏损”策略如何遭遇现实,证明了即使是天才也有其局限性,尤其是在你借入100倍于自己资金的情况下。华尔街至今仍将“LTCM”作为职业生涯终结性傲慢(Hubris: 过度自信或自负,常导致失败)的代号。但当LTCM引爆金融世界时,下一位作者正在悄悄预测一场更大的危机即将到来。

查看/隐藏英文原文 / View/Hide Original English

When genius failed by Roger Lowenstein is a story of how the world's smartest mathematical Minds proved that being really really good at math doesn't prevent you from losing really really big. Following long-term capital Management's spectacular explosion in 1998, it shows how Nobel Prize winners armed with the most sophisticated models in history managed to lose $4 billion faster than you can say Leverage is dangerous. The book reveals how ltcm's can't lose strategies met reality, proving that even genius has its limits, especially especially when you're borrowing 100 times your money. Wall Street still uses pulling and ltcm as code for career-ending hubis. But while ltcm was blowing up the financial World, our next author was quietly predicting how an even bigger crisis was about to unfold.

10. 《黑天鹅》:塔勒布的风险管理革命

纳西姆·塔勒布的《黑天鹅》(The Black Swan)打破了统计理论的基础,并在此过程中粉碎了不少人的自尊。通过哲学和数学的巧妙结合,塔勒布展示了历史上最重要的事件从未被专家预测到,因为他们忙于计算99%的概率,却错过了那1%的黑天鹅事件(Black Swan: 极不可能发生但一旦发生就会产生巨大影响的事件)。他关于鲁棒性(Robustness: 系统在面对不确定性或冲击时仍能保持其功能的能力)和反脆弱性(Anti-fragility: 系统在面对冲击和不确定性时不仅能抵抗,还能变得更强的特性)的概念彻底改变了风险管理,尽管有些人仍在从得知自己整个风险建模(Risk Modeling: 使用数学和统计方法评估和预测风险的过程)框架的预测能力与抛硬币无异这一事实中恢复过来。这本书的核心信息是,最重要的事件,顾名思义,是那些无人预见到的事件,这使得这本书的成功本身就具有奇妙的(Meta: 指对自身或所属类别进行反思、评论或指涉)意义。但当高斯分布在角落哭泣时,下一位作者正在悄悄地改变我们对行为经济学(Behavioral Economics: 结合心理学和经济学,研究人类决策中非理性因素的学科)的看法。

查看/隐藏英文原文 / View/Hide Original English

The Black Swan by Nasim taleb shattered the foundations of statistical Theory and quite a few egos in the process. Through a delightful mix of philosophy and Mathematics, TB showed that the most important events in history were never predicted by experts who were too busy calculating the 99th percentile while missing the H hundredth. His concepts of robustness and anti-fragility revolutionized riskmanagement, though some are still recovering from learning their entire risk modeling framework has the predictive power of a coin flip. The book's Central message the most significant events are by definition the ones no one sees coming, which made the book's success wonderfully meta. But while Gan distributions were crying in the corner, our next author was quietly revolutionizing how we think about behavioral economics.

11. 《闪电男孩》:高频交易的幕后真相

迈克尔·刘易斯的《闪电男孩》(Flash Boys)讲述了华尔街如何从穿着花哨夹克的人们互相叫喊,变成计算机默默地抢先交易(Front Running: 经纪人利用客户订单信息,提前进行交易以获利的行为)你奶奶的退休账户。该书于2014年出版,揭露了高频交易(High-Frequency Trading: 利用高速计算机和复杂算法在极短时间内进行大量交易的策略)者如何像玩作弊码开启的视频游戏一样操纵市场。通过布拉德·胜山(Brad Katsuyama)建立一个公平交易所的故事,刘易斯揭示了华尔街内部人士如何花费数十亿美元,只为让他们的计算机离交易所近几微秒。可以把它想象成世界上最昂贵的“谁先点击”游戏。这本书引发了国会听证会,速度比你说出“延迟套利”(Latency Arbitrage: 利用信息传输延迟在不同市场之间进行套利的行为)还要快。但当刘易斯揭露现代市场操纵时,下一位作者正在向我们展示市场为何会崩溃。

查看/隐藏英文原文 / View/Hide Original English

Flash Boys by Michael Lewis is the story of how Wall Street went from humans in colorful jackets yelling at each other to computers silently front running your grandma's retirement account. Published in 2014, it exposed how high frequency Traders were playing the market like a video game with cheat codes enabled. Through the tale of Brad katsuyama quest to build a fair Exchange, Lewis revealed how Wall Street insiders were spending billions just to get their computers a few micros seconds closer to the exchange. Think of it as the world's most expensive game of who can click first. The book sparked Congressional hearings faster than you can say latency Arbitrage. But while Lewis was exposing modern Market manipulation, our next author was showing us why markets crash in the first place.

12. 《稳定不稳定的经济》:明斯基的金融危机预警

海曼·明斯基的《稳定不稳定的经济》(Stabilizing an Unstable Economy)基本上相当于那个一直警告你“派对不会永远持续下去”的朋友。该书于1986年撰写,当时所有人都认为他们已经找到了预防金融危机的方法,但明斯基却平静地解释了为什么他们实际上正在制造下一场更大的危机。他的“金融不稳定假说”(Financial Instability Hypothesis: 认为经济稳定本身会滋生过度冒险,从而导致不稳定和危机的理论)表明,稳定本身会滋生不稳定。事实证明,事情进展得越顺利,我们在金钱方面就越愚蠢。“明斯基时刻”(Minsky Moment: 资产价格崩溃,引发金融危机的临界点)这个词在2008年变得家喻户晓,当时每个人都突然想起了他的存在,尽管他们可能希望自己早点读过他的书。但当明斯基警告我们金融脆弱性时,下一位作者即将向我们展示为什么我们自己的大脑是我们财富最大的威胁。

查看/隐藏英文原文 / View/Hide Original English

Stabilizing and unstable economy by himman Minsky is basically the economic equivalent of that friend who kept warning you the party couldn't last forever. Written in 1986, when everyone thought they'd figured out how to prevent Financial crises, Minsky calmly explained why they were actually making the next one bigger. His financial instability hypothesis showed how stability itself breeds instability. Turns out the longer things go well, the Dumber we get with money. The term Minsky moment became famous in 2008, when everyone suddenly remembered he existed, though they probably wished they'd read him sooner. But while Minsky was warning us about financial fragility, our next author was about to show us why our own brains are the biggest threat to our wealth.

13. 《思考,快与慢》:丹尼尔·卡尼曼的认知心理学洞察

丹尼尔·卡尼曼的《思考,快与慢》(Thinking, Fast and Slow)是当一位心理学家用其职业生涯证明聪明人也和我们其他人一样愚蠢,只是以更花哨的方式愚蠢时发生的故事。这位诺贝尔奖得主展示了我们的大脑有两个系统:一个像猫追逐激光笔一样迅速得出结论,另一个则像一个懒惰的青少年,懒得去检查这些结论是否合理。通过精彩的实验,卡尼曼揭示了为什么我们在从买股票到选择午餐的方方面面都可预测地非理性(Predictably Irrational: 指人类行为中存在系统性的非理性模式)。这本书对经济学的影响如此深远,以至于有效市场理论(Efficient Market Theory: 认为市场价格已经反映了所有可用信息,因此无法持续跑赢市场的理论)的支持者们至今仍在接受心理治疗。但当卡尼曼揭露我们的认知偏差(Cognitive Biases: 影响人类判断和决策的系统性思维错误)时,下一位作者即将向我们展示这些偏差如何创造了历史上最大的市场泡沫。

查看/隐藏英文原文 / View/Hide Original English

Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Conan is what happens when a psychologist spends his career proving that smart people are just as dumb as the rest of us, just in fancier ways. This Nobel Prize winner showed that our brain have two systems, one that jumps to conclusions faster than a cat chasing a laser pointer, and another that's basically a lazy teenager who can't be bothered to check if those conclusions make sense. Through brilliant experiments, conoman revealed why we predictably irrational about everything from buying stocks to choosing lunch. The book's impact on economics was so profound that efficient market theorists are still in therapy. But while Conan was exposing our cognitive biases, our next author was about to show us how these biases create the biggest market bubbles in history.

14. 《非理性繁荣》:罗伯特·席勒的泡沫预测

罗伯特·席勒的《非理性繁荣》(Irrational Exuberance)是一本罕见的书,它不仅预测了一个,而是两个市场泡沫,使他成为经济学界中唯一能准确预测天气的气象学家。该书于2000年,即互联网泡沫(Dot-com Bubble: 20世纪90年代末互联网公司股票价格飙升后迅速崩溃的现象)破裂前夕出版,席勒解释了为什么投资者表现得好像郁金香狂热(Tulip Mania: 17世纪荷兰郁金香球茎价格暴涨后暴跌的事件,常被用作投机泡沫的代名词)又回来了。他展示了人类心理如何将正常的市场周期转化为巨大的市场泡沫(Market Bubbles: 资产价格在短时间内脱离基本面,过度上涨的现象),尽管大多数读者当时忙于购买Pets.com的股票而没有注意到。该书的第二版预测了房地产崩盘,为席勒赢得了诺贝尔奖和金融界的“我早就告诉过你”的权利。但当席勒警告我们泡沫时,下一位作者即将解释为什么即使是中央银行家也无法抗拒加入这场狂欢。

查看/隐藏英文原文 / View/Hide Original English

Irrational exuberance by Robert Schiller is the rare book that predicted not one but two market bubbles, making him the economic equivalent of that weatherman who actually gets the forecast right. Published in 2000, right before the dot bubble popped, Schiller explained why investors were acting like tulip bulbs were back in fashion. He showed how human psychology turns normal Market Cycles into massive bubbles, though most readers were too busy buying pets.com stock to notice. The book's second edition predicted the housing crash, earning Schiller a Nobel Prize and the financial world's version of I Told You So writes. But while Schiller was warning us about bubbles, our next authors were about to explain why even Central Bankers can't resist joining the party.

15. 《动物精神》:心理学如何驱动经济

乔治·阿克洛夫和罗伯特·席勒的《动物精神》(Animal Spirits)是当两位诺贝尔奖得主决定解释为什么即使是经济学家也不像经济模型认为的那样理性时发生的故事。该书于2009年,即金融危机证明人类情绪控制力堪比糖果店里的蹒跚学步的孩子之后出版。他们展示了心理学如何驱动一切,从市场崩溃到你今天早上购买那杯价格过高的咖啡。他们提出的“动物精神”(Animal Spirits: 凯恩斯提出的概念,指人类决策中非理性的情绪和本能冲动)一词比任何数学模型都更好地解释了市场行为,尽管量化分析师们仍在假装没听到。这本书彻底改变了我们对经济决策的看法,即使我们仍在犯同样的错误。但当他们解释人性时,下一位作者即将向我们展示为什么技术分析(Technical Analysis: 通过研究历史价格和交易量图表来预测未来市场走势的方法)不仅仅是在图表上画线。

查看/隐藏英文原文 / View/Hide Original English

Animal Spirits by acof and Schiller is what happens when two Nobel laurates decide to explain why even economists aren't as rational as economic models think they are. Published in 2009, right after the financial crisis proved that humans have the emotional control of a toddler in a candy store, they showed how psychology drives everything from Market crashes to why you bought that overpriced coffee this morning. Their term Animal Spirits explained Market Behavior better than any mathematical model, though quantitative analysts are still pretending not to hear that. The book revolutionized how we think about economic decision making, even if we're still making the same old mistakes. But while they were explaining human nature, our next author was about to show us why technical analysis isn't just drawing lines on charts.

16. 《金融市场技术分析》:图表解读的科学

约翰·墨菲的《金融市场技术分析》(Technical Analysis of Financial Markets)是当有人意识到价格图表基本上就是金融界的“读茶渣”,只不过它真的有效时发生的故事。该书于1986年作为权威指南出版,墨菲展示了交易屏幕上那些弯弯曲曲的线条不仅仅是现代艺术作品。他将模式识别(Pattern Recognition: 在图表中识别重复的价格形态,以预测未来走势)从神秘的智慧转变为一门科学,尽管一些基本面分析师(Fundamental Analysts: 通过研究公司的财务报表、行业前景等基本面信息来评估股票价值的投资者)仍然认为它和占星术一样不可靠。这本书将支撑位(Support: 价格下跌时可能停止并反弹的水平)、阻力位(Resistance: 价格上涨时可能停止并回落的水平)和趋势线(Trend Lines: 连接价格高点或低点,显示市场方向的线条)等概念变成了一门合法的学科,即使大多数人仍然分不清头肩顶(Head and Shoulders: 一种预示价格可能反转下跌的图表形态)和双底(Double Bottom: 一种预示价格可能反转上涨的图表形态)。但当墨菲教我们如何阅读图表时,下一位作者即将向我们展示世界上最伟大的交易者是如何真正发财的。

查看/隐藏英文原文 / View/Hide Original English

Technical analysis of financial markets by John Murphy is what happens when someone realizes that price charts are basically just the financial equivalent of reading tea leaves, except it actually works. Published as the definitive guide in 1986, Murphy showed that those squiggly lines on trade screens aren't just modern art projects. He transformed pattern recognition from Mystic Wisdom into a science, though some fundamental analysts still think it's about as reliable as astrology. The book turned Concepts like support resistance and trend lines into a legitimate discipline, even if most people still can't tell a head and shoulders from a double bottom. But while Murphy was teaching us to read charts, our next author was about to show us how the world's greatest Traders really made their fortunes.

17. 《市场奇才》:顶尖交易员的成功秘诀

杰克·施瓦格的《市场奇才》(Market Wizards)基本上是交易界的“精选专辑”,只不过你得到的是价值数十亿美元的经验教训,而不是音乐。该书于1989年出版,施瓦格不知何故说服了世界上最成功的交易者透露他们的秘密,大概是承诺不告诉他们的竞争对手,哎呀。从通过趋势跟踪(Trend Following: 识别并跟随市场价格趋势进行交易的策略)赚取1亿美元的趋势追随者(Trend Followers),到证明伟大交易者可以被培养而非天生的海龟交易法(Turtle Traders: 一群通过严格的趋势跟踪系统训练出来的交易员),这本书揭示了成功的交易策略与这些“奇才”本身一样多样化。他们唯一达成共识的是:心理学(Psychology: 在交易和投资中,情绪和认知对决策的影响)比分析更重要,尽管两者兼备会有帮助。这些访谈成为了每个有抱负的交易者的必读之物。但当施瓦格揭示交易秘密时,下一位作者即将告诉我们为什么我们可能应该只购买指数基金。

查看/隐藏英文原文 / View/Hide Original English

Market Wizards by Jack schwager is basically the greatest hits album of trading, except instead of music, you get billion dooll lessons. Published in 1989, schwager somehow convinced the world's most successful traders to reveal their secrets, probably by promising not to tell their competitors, oops. From Trend followers who made $100 million riding big waves, to Turtle traders who proved great Traders can be made not born, the book revealed that successful trading strategies are as diverse as the Wizards themselves. The only thing they agreed on psychology matters more than analysis, though having both helps. These interviews became required reading for every aspiring Trader. But while schagger was revealing trading Secrets, our next author was about to tell us why we should probably just buy index funds instead.

18. 《漫步华尔街》:指数基金的革命

伯顿·马尔基尔的《漫步华尔街》(A Random Walk Down Wall Street)是当一位普林斯顿经济学家决定告诉整个投资行业,他们基本上都是昂贵的“抛硬币者”时发生的故事。该书于1973年出版,当时选股还是一种信仰,马尔基尔却犯下了最终的异端,提出猴子扔飞镖选股也能和专家一样好。他的研究表明,市场效率(Market Efficiency: 市场价格充分反映所有可用信息,因此无法通过信息优势持续获得超额收益)使得持续跑赢市场就像在花园里找到独角兽一样不可能。这本书的核心信息是,你应该只购买低成本的指数基金(Index Funds: 旨在复制特定市场指数表现的基金),这一思想是如此革命性,以至于Vanguard的杰克·博格尔(Jack Bogle)以此为灵感,创建了第一只指数基金,为投资者节省了数十亿美元。但当马尔基尔推动被动投资(Passive Investing: 购买并持有指数基金等资产,不主动进行买卖以跑赢市场)时,下一位作者即将揭露自人类发明金钱以来最大的金融欺诈。

查看/隐藏英文原文 / View/Hide Original English

A random walk down Wall Street by Burton malel is what happens when a Princeton Economist decides to tell the the entire investment industry they're basically expensive coin flippers. Published in 1973, when stock picking was religion, malel committed the ultimate heresy by suggesting monkeys throwing darts could pick stocks as well as the experts. His research showed that market efficiency makes consistent outperformance about as likely as finding a unicorn in your garden. The books message that you should just buy lowcost index funds was so revolutionary that vanguard's Jack B gole used it as inspiration to create the first Index Fund, saving investors billions. But while malel was pushing passive investing, our next author was about to expose the biggest financial fraud since someone invented money.

19. 《大空头》:金融危机的侦探故事

迈克尔·刘易斯的《大空头》(The Big Short)是关于金融危机最伟大的侦探故事,只不过罪犯们带着数十亿美元逍遥法外。该书于2010年出版,讲述了一群局外人如何发现房地产市场基本上是一个巨大的庞氏骗局(Ponzi Scheme: 一种投资欺诈,通过新投资者的资金支付给老投资者,而非实际盈利),只是宣传册更精美。刘易斯展示了少数怀疑论者如何通过做空次级抵押贷款债券(CDOs: Collateralized Debt Obligations: 一种将多种债务(如抵押贷款)打包成证券出售的金融产品)赚取了数十亿美元,而这些债券连销售它们的人都不理解。通过迈克尔·伯里(Michael Burry)博士等人物,他在其他人都在阅读利润预测时,阅读了数千份抵押贷款文件,我们了解到有时整个市场都可能犯错,而且是惊人的错误。但当刘易斯揭露上次危机时,下一位作者正在创建一种系统性方法来避免下一次危机。

查看/隐藏英文原文 / View/Hide Original English

The Big Short by Michael Lewis is the greatest detective story ever written about the financial crisis, except the criminals got away with billions. Published in 2010, it follows a handful of Outsiders who figured out the housing market was basically a giant Ponzi scheme with nicer brochures. Lewis showed how a few Skeptics made billions betting against cdos that nobody understood, including the people selling them. Through characters like Dr Michael bur who read thousands of mortgages when everyone else was reading profit projections, we learned that sometimes the entire Market can be wrong spectacularly wrong. But while Lewis was exposing the last crisis, our next author was creating a systematic approach to avoid the next one.

20. 《原则》:瑞·达利欧的系统化成功之道

瑞·达利欧的《原则》(Principles)是当世界上最成功的对冲基金经理之一决定将他的大脑转化为算法时发生的故事。该书于2017年出版,在建立了历史上最大的对冲基金之后,达利欧揭示了成功基本上只是带有更好营销的模式识别(Pattern Recognition: 识别重复出现的规律和趋势)。他的“经济机器”(Economic Machine: 达利欧提出的一个概念,将经济运行视为一个由少数简单驱动力构成的机器)以幼儿园老师般的清晰度解释了经济如何运作,这位老师恰好管理着1500亿美元。通过他破产和建立桥水基金的个人故事,他展示了激进透明(Radical Transparency: 在组织中最大限度地公开信息和决策过程)和系统性思维(Systematic Thinking: 以系统化的方式分析问题和制定决策)是成功的关键,尽管在实施他的激进诚实(Radical Honesty: 坦诚直接地表达自己的想法和感受)方法之前,你可能需要先警告你的同事。但当达利欧将成功系统化时,下一位作者即将向我们展示为什么富人会越来越富。

查看/隐藏英文原文 / View/Hide Original English

Principles by Ray doio is what happens when one of the world's most successful hedge fund managers decides to turn his brain into an algorithm. Published in 2017, after building the largest hedge fund in history, Dalo revealed that success is basically just pattern recognition with better marketing. His economic machine explained how the economy works with the clarity of a kindergarten teacher who happens to manage $150 billion. Through personal stories of going broke and building Bridgewater, he showed that radical transparency and systematic thinking are the keys to success, though maybe warn your co-workers before implementing his radical honesty approach. But while Dalia was systematizing success, our next author was about to show us why the rich keep getting richer.

21. 《21世纪资本论》:托马斯·皮凯蒂的财富不平等研究

托马斯·皮凯蒂的《21世纪资本论》(Capital in the Twenty-First Century)是当一位法国经济学家花费15年时间证明富人不仅越来越富,而且速度快得让你来不及说“继承财富(Inherited Wealth: 通过继承而非自身劳动获得的财富)”时发生的故事。该书于2013年出版,通过将经济数据转化为跨越几个世纪的侦探故事,成为了一本意想不到的畅销书。他著名的公式“r > g”(资本回报率R大于经济增长率G)表明,当投资回报率(Return on Capital: 资本投资所产生的收益率)超过经济增长率(Economic Growth Rate: 经济总产出随时间增长的速度)时,财富不平等(Wealth Inequality: 财富在社会成员之间分配不均的现象)就会像一场失控的金融物理实验一样爆炸。这本书引发了关于不平等的全球辩论,尽管大多数亿万富翁可能只是把它当作一个昂贵的镇纸。皮凯蒂大量的历史证据改变了我们对财富的看法。但当他揭露财富集中时,下一位作者即将解释为什么日本管理正在“吞噬”美国。

查看/隐藏英文原文 / View/Hide Original English

Capital in the 21st century by Thomas piy is what happens when a French Economist spends 15 years proving that the rich aren't just getting richer, they're doing it faster than you can say inherited wealth. Published in 2013, it became an unlikely bestseller by turning economic data into a detective story spanning centuries. His famous formula R greater than GE showed that when investment returns exceed economic growth, wealth inequality explodes like a financial physics experiment gone wrong. The book sparked Global debates about inequality, though most billionaires probably used it as an expensive paper weight. pik's mountain of historical evidence changed how we think about wealth, but while he was exposing wealth concentration, our next author was about to explain why Japanese management was eating America's lunch.

22. 《日本管理技术》:精益生产的秘密

理查德·尚伯格的《日本管理技术》(Japanese Management Techniques)是当美国意识到,或许让员工贡献想法比把他们当作机器人更好时发生的故事。该书于1981年出版,当时美国制造商正被日本竞争对手击垮,它揭示了日本经济奇迹背后的“秘密武器”。事实证明,询问正在工作的人如何改进工作比让顾问撰写报告更有效。这本书向西方引入了持续改进(Kaizen: 源自日本的持续改进方法,强调小步迭代和全员参与)和准时制(Just-in-Time: 一种生产管理系统,旨在减少库存和浪费,按需生产)等概念,尽管大多数公司实施它们的效果和他们发音它们一样糟糕。从丰田到索尼,尚伯格展示了为什么日本在质量战(Quality War: 指20世纪后期日本产品在质量上超越西方产品,引发的全球竞争)中获胜。但当美国学习精益生产(Lean Production: 一种旨在通过消除浪费来提高效率和生产力的管理方法)时,下一位作者即将向我们展示东方是如何真正看待经济学的。

查看/隐藏英文原文 / View/Hide Original English

Japanese management techniques by Richard shanberg is what happens when America realizes that maybe just maybe letting workers contribute ideas is better than treating them like robots. Published in 1981, when us manufacturers were getting crushed by by Japanese competition, it revealed the secret sauce behind Japan's economic Miracle. Turns out asking the person doing the job how to improve it works better than having Consultants write reports about it. The book introduced Concepts like Kaizen and just in time to the West, though most companies implemented them about as well as they pronounced them. From Toyota to Sony, shanberg showed why Japan was winning the quality War, but while America was learning about lean production, our next author was about to show us how the East really thought about economics.

23. 《东方经济学家》:石桥湛山的东亚经济思想

石桥湛山的《东方经济学家》(The Oriental Economist)是当东方经济思想与西方经济思想相遇,双方都意识到自己一直以来都错了时发生的故事。该书于1934年出版,石桥湛山敢于挑战日本的军工复合体(Military-Industrial Complex: 指军事工业与政府和政治家之间形成的互利关系),同时解释了为什么纯粹的西方资本主义在亚洲也行不通。通过他的报纸和著作,他推广了自由市场原则和亚洲社会价值观的独特融合,尽管在1930年代的日本,提出温和建议就像建议和平一样不受欢迎。他对平衡经济增长(Economic Growth: 经济总产出随时间增长的速度)与社会和谐(Social Harmony: 社会成员之间关系融洽,没有重大冲突的状态)的洞察力,后来帮助塑造了日本战后的经济奇迹。但当石桥湛山连接东西方时,下一位作者即将彻底改变我们对金融衍生品(Financial Derivatives: 价值来源于标的资产(如股票、债券、商品等)的金融合约)的看法。

查看/隐藏英文原文 / View/Hide Original English

The Oriental Economist by tanzan ishibashi is what happens when East Meets West in economic thought and both sides realize they've been doing it wrong. Published in 1934, ishibashi dared to challenge Japan's military-industrial complex while explaining why Pure Western capitalism wouldn't work in Asia either. Through his newspaper and writings, he promoted a unique blend of free market principles and Asian social values, though suggesting moderation in 1930s Japan was about as popular as suggesting peace. His insights about balancing economic growth with social harmony would later help shape Japan's post-war economic Miracle. But while ishibashi was bridging East and West, our next author was about to revolutionize how we think about financial derivatives.

24. 《期权、期货及其他衍生品》:金融衍生品的权威指南

约翰·赫尔的《期权、期货及其他衍生品》(Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives)是当有人最终以一种不需要物理学博士学位的方式解释火箭科学般的衍生品数学(Derivatives Math: 用于定价和风险管理金融衍生品的复杂数学模型)时发生的故事。该书于1988年出版,当时华尔街刚刚发现可以通过混淆人们来赚钱,赫尔却设法让布莱克-斯科尔斯模型(Black-Scholes Model: 一种用于计算欧式期权理论价格的数学模型)听起来几乎和加法一样简单。这本书成为了衍生品(Derivatives: 价值来源于标的资产(如股票、债券、商品等)的金融合约)的圣经,尽管完全理解它仍然需要比普通人安全摄入的咖啡量更多。通过对期权(Options: 赋予持有人在未来特定时间以特定价格买卖标的资产权利的合约)、互换(Swaps: 双方同意在未来交换现金流的金融合约)和期货(Futures: 双方同意在未来特定日期以特定价格买卖标的资产的合约)的清晰解释,赫尔展示了衍生品并非魔法,它们只是穿着华丽外衣的复杂数学。但当赫尔揭秘衍生品时,下一位作者即将向我们展示如何让市场随心所欲。

查看/隐藏英文原文 / View/Hide Original English

Options Futures and other derivatives by John Hall is what happens when someone finally explains rocket science derivatives math in a way that doesn't require a PhD in physics. Published in 1988, just as Wall Street was discovering it could make money by confusing people, Hull managed to make black skulls sound almost as simple as addition. The book became the derivatives Bible, though understanding it fully still requires more coffee than the average human can safely consume. Through clear explanations of options swaps and Futures, Hull showed that derivatives aren't magic, they're just really complicated math in a fancy suit. But while Hull was demystifying derivatives, our next author was about to show us how to bend markets to his will.

25. 《金融炼金术》:乔治·索罗斯的反身性理论

乔治·索罗斯的《金融炼金术》(The Alchemy of Finance)是当一位亿万富翁交易员决定用哲学而非图表来解释他的成功,而且不知何故它竟然说得通时发生的故事。该书于1987年出版,索罗斯揭示了他的反身性理论(Reflexivity: 索罗斯提出的理论,认为市场参与者的偏见不仅影响市场价格,还会反过来影响基本面现实),展示了市场不仅会犯错,而且会以改变现实本身的方式犯错。通过他著名的反身性理论,他解释了他的数十亿美元押注是如何运作的,尽管清晰地解释它显然不是他策略的一部分。这本书表明,市场价格和基本面现实像狗追自己的尾巴一样互相追逐,创造了使索罗斯富裕到足以“击垮英格兰银行”的繁荣-萧条周期。但当索罗斯解释市场哲学时,下一位作者即将向我们展示如何在地球上的任何地方发现投资机会。

查看/隐藏英文原文 / View/Hide Original English

The Alchemy of Finance by George Soros is what happens when a billionaire Trader decides to explain his success using philosophy instead of charts and somehow it actually makes sense. Published in 1987, Soros revealed his theory of reflexivity, showing how markets aren't just wrong, they're wrong in ways that change reality itself. Through his famous theory of reflexivity, he explained how his billion dooll bets worked, though explaining it clearly was apparently not part of his strategy. The book showed that market prices and fundamental reality Chase each other like a dog chasing its tail, creating boom bust cycles that made Soros Rich enough to break the bank of England. But while Soros was explaining Market philosophy, our next author was about to show us how to spot investment opportunities anywhere on Earth.

26. 《预期收益》:安蒂·伊尔曼宁的投资回报理论

安蒂·伊尔曼宁的《预期收益》(Expected Returns)是当一位量化投资(Quant: Quantitative Investment: 利用数学模型和统计分析进行投资决策的策略)专家决定在一本书中解释我们所知道的所有关于投资回报的知识,并且真的成功了时发生的故事。该书于2011年出版,在观察投资者像猫追逐激光笔一样追逐回报数十年后,伊尔曼宁创建了投资回报的“大统一理论”。他展示了从价值型股票(Value Stocks: 市场价格低于其内在价值的股票)到动量交易(Momentum Trading: 投资那些近期表现良好,预期会继续上涨的股票的策略)的一切是如何真正运作的,尽管一些主动型基金经理希望他没有这样做。这本书系统地摧毁了每一个投资神话,同时建立了一个如此全面的框架,以至于其他投资书籍看起来就像儿童故事。即使是博士们也把它当作睡前读物,前提是他们能把它举起来。但当伊尔曼宁揭示回报来源时,下一位作者即将向我们展示投资中真正重要的是什么。

查看/隐藏英文原文 / View/Hide Original English

Expected return returns by Auntie ilmanen is what happens when a Quant decides to explain everything we know about investment returns in one book and actually pulls it off. Published in 2011, after Decades of watching investors Chase returns like cats chasing laser pointers, IL manin created the Grand unified theory of investment returns. He showed how everything from value stocks to momentum trading actually works, though some active managers wish he hadn't. The book systematically destroys every investing myth while building a framework so comprehensive it makes other investment books look like children's stories. Even phds keep it as their bedside reading, assuming they can lift it. But while ilmanen was exposing returned sources, our next author was about to show us what really matters in investing.

27. 《投资最重要的事》:霍华德·马克斯的市场智慧

霍华德·马克斯的《投资最重要的事》(The Most Important Thing)是当世界上最伟大的投资者之一花费40年时间撰写备忘录,这些备忘录比大多数投资书籍都更好时发生的故事。该书于2011年出版,马克斯揭示了投资中最重要的事是意识到从来没有“唯一最重要的事”。通过数十年的市场智慧,他展示了成功的投资在于理解市场周期(Market Cycles: 市场价格和情绪在繁荣与衰退之间循环的模式)、管理风险,以及始终如一地“不愚蠢”,这比偶尔的“才华横溢”要难得多。他对市场心理和逆向思维(Contrarian Thinking: 在市场情绪极端时,采取与大众相反的投资策略)的洞察力影响了从沃伦·巴菲特到对冲基金经理的每一个人,尽管大多数人仍然无法抗拒在市场高峰时买入。但当马克斯教我们市场周期时,下一位作者即将揭示真正的财富根本不在华尔街。

查看/隐藏英文原文 / View/Hide Original English

The most important thing by Howard marks is what happens when one of the world's greatest investors spends 40 years writing memos that are better than most investment books. Published in 2011, marks revealed that the most important thing in investing is realizing there is never just one most important thing. Through Decades of Market wisdom, he showed that successful investing is about understanding Cycles, managing risk, and being consistently not stupid, which is surprisingly harder than being occasionally brilliant. His insights about Market psychology and contrarian thinking have influenced everyone from Warren Buffett to hedge fund managers, though most still can't resist buying it Market Peaks. But while Marx was teaching us about Market Cycles, our next author was about to reveal why the real wealth isn't in Wall Street at all.

28. 《资本的秘密》:赫尔南多·德·索托的产权经济学

赫尔南多·德·索托的《资本的秘密》(The Mystery of Capital)是当有人最终解释了为什么复制西方资本主义就像没有打开烤箱就想烤蛋糕时发生的故事。该书于2000年出版,德·索托揭示了发展中国家尽管拥有数万亿美元的资产,却依然贫困的原因。事实证明,拥有产权(Property Rights: 个人或实体拥有、使用和处置财产的合法权利)非常重要。通过对贫民窟和棚户区的广泛研究,他展示了世界上穷人实际上坐拥巨额财富,但如果没有合法的产权制度,他们就无法利用这些财富。这本书改变了我们对发展经济学(Development Economics: 研究发展中国家经济增长、结构变化和贫困问题的经济学分支)的看法,尽管大多数政策制定者忙于撰写复杂的援助计划而没有注意到。但当德·索托解开贫困之谜时,下一位作者即将解释为什么美国的黄金增长时代可能已经结束。

查看/隐藏英文原文 / View/Hide Original English

The mystery of capital by Hernando doto is what happens when someone finally explains why copying Western capitalism is like trying to bake a cake without turning on the oven. Published in 2000, doto revealed why developing nations remain poor despite having trillions in assets. Turns out having property rights is kind of important. Through extensive research in slums and Shanty towns, he showed how the world's poor are actually sitting on massive wealth they just can't access it without legal property systems. The book transformed how we think about development economics, though most policymakers were too busy writing complex Aid programs to notice. But while doodo was solving poverty's puzzle, our next author was about to explain why America's golden age of growth might be over.

29. 《美国增长的兴衰》:罗伯特·戈登的增长停滞论

罗伯特·戈登的《美国增长的兴衰》(The Rise and Fall of American Growth)是当一位经济学家决定告诉所有人“派对结束了”,并用700页的数据证明这一点时发生的故事。该书于2016年出版,戈登指出美国增长的黄金时代不仅特殊,而且是不可复制的。通过引人入胜的分析,他揭示了电力和室内管道等创新(Innovation: 引入新的思想、方法、产品或服务)如何比你的新iPhone更能改变生活。这本书认为,现代创新更多是关于娱乐而非转型(Transformation: 根本性的改变),尽管硅谷高管可能读到这里就停止了。他关于缓慢增长(Slow Growth: 经济增长速度放缓,成为新常态)是新常态的结论引发了关于创新的全球辩论。但当戈登解释为什么增长正在放缓时,下一位作者即将向我们展示为什么金融危机却在加速。

查看/隐藏英文原文 / View/Hide Original English

The rise in fall of American growth by Robert Gordon is what happens when an economist decides to tell everyone the part's over and proves it with 700 pages of data. Published in 2016, Gordon showed that the Golden Age of American growth wasn't just special, it was unrepeatable. Through fascinating analysis, he revealed how Innovations like electricity and indoor plumbing change life more than your new iPhone ever will. The book argued that modern Innovations are more about entertainment than transformation, though Silicon Valley Executives probably stopped reading at that part. His conclusion that slow growth is The New Normal sparked Global debates about Innovation. But while Gordon was explaining why growth is slowing, our next author was about to show us why Financial crises keep speeding up.

30. 《这次不一样》:莱因哈特和罗格夫的金融危机史

莱因哈特和罗格夫的《这次不一样》(This Time Is Different)是当两位经济学家阅读了800年的金融愚蠢历史,并意识到我们一直在犯同样的错误时发生的故事。该书于2009年出版,他们指出每一次金融危机都始于有人说“这次不一样”——剧透一下,从来都不是。通过几个世纪的数据,他们揭示了各国如何反复说服自己已经找到了避免危机的方法,却又在下一刻陷入危机。这本书证明,无论是荷兰的郁金香还是加密货币,人类的金融愚蠢(Financial Folly: 在金融领域表现出的非理性、冲动或错误的决策)是历史中唯一不变的。他们对债务周期(Debt Cycles: 债务积累和去杠杆化在经济中周期性发生的模式)和金融危机的分析成为了最终的“我早就告诉过你”的参考。当他们向我们展示历史如何押韵(Rhymes: 指历史事件或模式以相似而非完全相同的方式重复出现)时,你刚刚完成了对金融智慧最全面的探索。

查看/隐藏英文原文 / View/Hide Original English

This time is different by Reinhardt and rogov is what happens when two economists read through 800 years of financial stupidity and realize we keep stepping on the same rake. Published in 2009, they showed that every Financial crisis starts with someone saying this time is different, spoiler alert, it never is. Through centuries of data, they revealed how countries repeatedly convinced themselves they figured out how to avoid crisis right before walking into one. The book proved that whether it's dutch tulips or crypto coins, human Financial Folly is the one constant across history. Their analysis of debt cycles and financial crises became the ultimate I Told You So reference, and while they were showing us how history Rhymes, you were just completing the most comprehens ensive tour of financial wisdom ever created.

总结与启示:金融思想的六大支柱

在我们结束之前,让我们快速回顾一些未能进入主榜单的传奇书籍:《金钱:一个虚构事物的真实故事》(Money: The True Story of a Made-Up Thing)让货币历史变得有趣;《说谎者的扑克牌》(Liar's Poker)在华尔街文化变得“酷”之前就揭露了它的疯狂;《金钱心理学》(The Psychology of Money)让我们意识到我们都以自己特殊的方式对金钱感到疯狂;《狂热、恐慌和崩溃》(Manias, Panics, and Crashes)则告诉我们,群体性亏损是一种历史悠久的传统。这30本书被精心组织成金融思想的六大基本支柱(Fundamental Pillars):揭示市场运作方式的基础经济理论(Foundational Economic Theory);创造永恒策略的投资经典(Investment Classics);塑造当今金融世界的现代市场与制度(Modern Markets and Institutions);揭示我们为何对金钱略显疯狂的行为金融学(Behavioral Finance);教我们如何解读市场心理的市场分析(Market Analysis);以及持续革新金融的现代经典(Modern Classics)。每本书都通过开创新的理论、预测重大危机、改变投资策略或塑造经济政策,赢得了它应有的地位。如果你喜欢这次金融智慧之旅,请订阅以获取更多关于迷人金钱世界的深度探索。嘿,也许可以从加密货币交易中休息一下,读读这些书。

查看/隐藏英文原文 / View/Hide Original English

Before we wrap up, let's speed through some legendary books that just missed our main list: Money: The True Story of a Made-Up Thing made currency history actually interesting; Liars Poker exposed wall Street's crazy culture before it was cool; The Psychology of Money made us realize we're all crazy about money in our own special ways; Manas panics and crashes showed us that losing money in groups is a Tim honored tradition. These 30 books were carefully organized into six fundamental pillars of financial thought: foundational economic theory, showing us how markets work; investment Classics that created Timeless strategies; modern markets and institutions that shape today's Financial World; behavioral finance that exposed why we're all slightly crazy about money; market analysis that taught us how to read the Market's mind; and modern Classics that continue to revolutionize Finance. Each book earned its place by either pioneering new theories, predicting major crises, transforming investment strategy, or shaping Economic Policy. If you enjoyed this journey through financial wisdom, hit subscribe for more deep dives into the fascinating world of money, and hey, maybe take a break from crypto trading to read one of these.