法国政治动荡与政治人物的未来

Well, look, let's start with Lional's latest piece about this, talking about Sebastian Lornu, supposed to be Emanuel Macro's last chance man to keep his presidency on the rails through 2027.

好，让我们先从Lionel最新的一篇相关文章说起，文章谈到了Sebastian Lornu，他本应是Emanuel Macron在2027年前维持其总统任期顺利运行的最后机会。

Is Sebastian Lornu going to be able to do anything in the next 48 hours that he hasn't been able to do over the past month?

Sebastian Lornu在接下来的48小时内，是否能做出过去一个月里他未能做到的事情？

Now, well, uh, look, the the new rule of French politics is it's not over till it's over. But it it feels over. It's nearly over.

现在，嗯，看吧，法国政治的新规则是“不到最后一刻，一切皆有可能”。但现在感觉已经接近尾声了，几乎结束了。

The reason why I said that is because I think that snap parliamentary elections, which has been something that Morn's been trying to avoid ever since he called the last one uh last year. That for me has dramatically ramped up in probability.

我之所以这么说，是因为我认为，突袭式议会选举——这是Morn自去年举行上一次选举以来一直试图避免的事情——在我看来，其可能性已大大增加。

So that to me looks like a very likely option. So what ML has done is basically put that on the table and said okay this is basically happening and you now have 48 hours to avoid that.

所以，对我来说，这看起来是一个非常可能的选项。因此，ML所做的基本上是将这一点摆上台面，并说“好吧，这基本上就要发生了，你们现在有48小时来避免它”。

Okay. So in other words the divided line of parliament used to be pro or anti-morn willing to work with him or not. Now Matt Horn wants wants the parliament to be pro or anti snap elections.

好的。换句话说，议会的分裂线曾经是支持或反对Morn，是否愿意与他合作。现在，Matt Horn希望议会支持或反对突袭式选举。

So basically all the parties around Morn especially the center left have to basically decide are they going to risk their own jobs by letting parliamentary elections happen or are they going to have one last last last attempt at a coalition but frankly all of the energy all of the kind of gravity I feel is slipping away hour by hour.

所以基本上，Morn周围的所有政党，特别是中左翼政党，都必须做出决定：他们是要冒着失去自己工作的风险，让议会选举发生，还是要进行最后一次、最后一次、最后的联合尝试？但老实说，我感觉所有的能量和那种影响力都在一点一点地流失。

债券市场对法国危机的反应

Marcus let me bring you in here because we've got the oats bunt spread now at 86 basis points and what analysts keep telling me is this isn't a crisis yet.

Marcus，让我请你介入，因为我们看到国债息差现在是86个基点，分析师们一直告诉我，这还不是危机。

So how much would it have to widen for this actually to be considered a crisis in the bond market?

那么，在债券市场，这种情况需要扩大多少才能被视为危机？

A sharper move above 100 would would concentrate some uh uh some some people for sure. Um you know the point here is that the ECB has some reserve weapons if it needs to um transmission protraction instrument which has never been tested and and won't be under these circumstances.

肯定会有人因为超过100的更大幅度的变动而感到担忧。你知道，关键在于欧洲央行有一些储备工具，如果需要的话，比如“传导保护工具”，但它从未被测试过，在目前的情况下也不会被使用。

So, you know, France is sort of on its own here, but of course it's not because we've seen over over all these various different blips. You can go back to the snap election last year, last sort of June, um that really the cavalry gets, you know, the wagons get circled and and Europe comes in to at least soften the blows.

所以，你知道，法国在这里基本上是孤立无援的，但当然也不是，因为我们已经看到过所有这些不同的波动。你可以回顾一下去年6月的突袭式选举，那时欧洲确实会出面，集结力量，至少是减轻打击。

So, yes, the ECB no longer in theory is doing um you know, quantitative buying. it's slightly letting some passive aggressive uh excuse me my pun um you know drift off but it's not there to actively step in and and bail out France but you look at the the yields versus Italy they've nudged ever so slightly above but this is this is micro real real small stuff at the moment it's just that why buy France that's your answer you're not getting any new money in and if in doubt you're going to you know if a bond matures or you've got a better option you're going to slide out of France and that's why it's it's a slow gradual death.

所以，是的，理论上欧洲央行不再进行量化购买。它正在稍微地采取一种被动式的、有些挑衅性的（抱歉我的双关语）……你知道，让一些东西自行发展，但它并没有积极介入以救助法国。但你看看法国和意大利的收益率比较，法国的收益率仅仅略高于意大利，但这只是微不足道的小事。现在的问题是，为什么还要购买法国债券？这就是答案。你不会获得任何新的资金，而且如果你有疑问，当债券到期时，或者如果你有更好的选择，你就会从法国债券中撤出，这就是为什么它是一种缓慢的、逐渐的死亡。

政治危机与经济前景的关联

Lo, I mean on that question of of why by France, the the conversation that we've had with Jean Delbar from Lubber Economics and and plenty of others over the past couple of days has been this isn't a fiscal crisis yet. This is a political crisis and realistically nothing's really changed in the past since la since Voseru perhaps since Michelle Barney nothing's really changed either. They'll figure it out in the end. What changes in that dynamic? Where does this where do we get to the end of the road of of sort of the gic shrug?

Lo，关于“为什么还要购买法国债券”这个问题，我们过去几天与Lubber Economics的Jean Delbar以及许多其他人进行的讨论是，这还不是一场财政危机。这是一场政治危机，而且实际上，自Voseru时期，也许自Michelle Barney时期以来，什么都没有真正改变。他们最终会解决的。这种动态会发生什么变化？我们将在这种“无可奈何的耸肩”的尽头到达哪里？

Well, I think as Marcus was hinting, you know, I've called France Lig short, right? It is ling short on a on a relative basis because the political crisis is unfolding very slowly and everyone can see what's happening and you can and you can model it out longer term.

Well，我认为正如Marcus所暗示的，你知道，我曾称法国“在某些方面短板明显”，对吧？从相对的角度来看，它确实存在短板，因为政治危机正在非常缓慢地展开，每个人都能看到正在发生的事情，而且你可以对其进行长期的模型预测。

I think this is a political risk story in that an election changes a lot and Marin Lupin and her number two Pela are the politicians to beat. Now the two big questions that that the the two planks of Morn's legacy so far have been stable tax policy and an economic policy in France that is predictable and pension reform and a general reform agenda.

我认为这是一个政治风险故事，因为选举会带来很多变化，而Marin Lupin和她的二号人物Pela是需要被击败的政治家。现在，Morn迄今为止的政治遗产的两个关键方面是稳定的税收政策，以及法国可预测的经济政策，以及养老金改革和普遍的改革议程。

Those two things have been uh rewarded by investors over the past decade. Those two things are starting to crack because as we've discussed all the parties around him especially on the far left on the far right want to brush those away.

这十年来，这两件事得到了投资者的回报。这两件事现在开始出现裂痕，因为正如我们所讨论的，他周围的所有政党，尤其是极左翼和极右翼，都希望将它们推翻。

They do not want uh stable taxation. They want more budget freebies and they want to roll back pension reform. Those are the things that I think really could derail uh the the French story even further because then you get back into the old France, the premacorn France but with a lot more debt and a lot worse budget deficit which I think spooks European partners a bit more.

他们不想要稳定的税收。他们想要更多的财政补贴，并且想要撤销养老金改革。我认为这些事情真的可能使法国的形势进一步恶化，因为那将使我们回到马克龙之前的法国，那个负债更多、财政赤字更糟的法国，我认为这会让欧洲伙伴更加担忧。

政治盟友的分歧与选举的恐慌

Just on the politics the two of Macron's closest allies have sort of started to disown him essentially. Edoir Phipe who okay had gone and set up his own shop but was still a friend uh to Emanuel Macron. Gabriel Atal, the head of Macron's own party, saying on television last night, he doesn't understand the president's decisions anymore. Is everyone now just positioning themselves for the next set of elections and trying to distance themself from Macron?

就政治层面而言，马克龙的两位最亲密的盟友基本上已经开始和他划清界限了。Édouard Philippe，虽然已经自立门户，但仍然是Emanuel Macron的朋友。Gabriel Attal，马克龙自己政党的领导人，昨晚在电视上说，他现在不理解总统的决定了。现在是否每个人都在为下一轮选举做准备，并试图与马克龙保持距离？

Totally. Totally. And that's completely logical. Back himself betrayed his predecessor, his father figure. This is the rule of French politics. I think what's slightly uh new I guess is that Edar Phipe in calling for a for a new presidential election is really willing to get out there and say let's let's make history again.

完全正确。完全正确。而且这完全合乎逻辑。他本人背叛了他的前任，他的“父亲式”人物。这是法国政治的规则。我想稍微新颖一点的是，Édouard Philippe呼吁进行新的总统选举，他真的愿意站出来说“让我们再次创造历史”。

It's it's a kind of daunting proposition. I think he he's now concerned that Mali Lupin is the politician to be even in in a presidential election. Uh Edar Phipe had been groomed as the kind of potential heir of Mhm. I think polls are quite alarming in in in the sense that they're showing whether it's Le Pen or her number two Bela uh they're really comfortably in the lead for a presidential election.

这是一种令人望而生畏的提议。我认为他现在担心的是，即使在总统选举中，Marine Le Pen也是有力的竞争者。Édouard Philippe曾被培养为潜在的继承人。我认为民意调查令人担忧，因为它们显示，无论是Le Pen还是她的二号人物Béla，他们在总统选举中都处于遥遥领先的地位。

So you can see there's a lot more panic. There's a lot more fability. People are willing to push the boat boat out a little more in terms of radical proposals and I think a m resignation would be a huge bombshell and I think definitely push the spread to to levels that Marcus was flagging.

所以你可以看到，恐慌情绪更甚。不确定性更高。人们愿意在激进的提议上更加大胆，我认为马克龙的辞职将是一个巨大的震撼，而且肯定会将息差推高到Marcus所提到的水平。

市场如何看待法国极右翼

Marcus, what does the market think of the far-right in France?

Marcus，市场如何看待法国的极右翼？

Well, I think in essence, it's it's one of these misnomers is that uh the media portrays these uh you know, Le Pen and her crew as as far right, but in practically far-left in socialistic terms as as an economic point of view, leaving some of the politics out of it.

嗯，我认为本质上，这是一个误称，媒体将Le Pen及其团队描绘成极右翼，但从经济角度来看，抛开一些政治因素，他们实际上在社会主义 terms上是极左翼。

This would be uh no, maybe not quite as sort of Jean Luke Melon um you know, cryptocomunist, but it's pretty close to it. And that would be you know, as um Leon has very carefully pointed out on the various different uh uh flagships of the macron era uh would be thrown out where we would be talking you know, it would be very uh I'm sure uh friendly towards a wealth tax and indeed of course running back that that pension reform which has been so so expensive to get it through and and and so uh you know, important pivotal I think for how the markets view French debt.

这可能会……嗯，也许不像Jean-Luc Mélenchon那样是“加密共产主义者”，但已经非常接近了。正如Lionel非常仔细地指出的那样，马克龙时代的一些关键支柱将被推翻，我们将讨论……我相信这将非常有利于财富税，当然也会取消那项养老金改革，这项改革花费了巨额的成本才得以通过，而且我认为这对市场如何看待法国国债至关重要。

So this really is this tactic of of Macron again is you know with the snap election last year and again threatening elections. It's to try and scare um the National Assembly into doing you know, what he wants. Um let's hope that that there something comes out this which is sensible and a government can be formed.

所以这真的是马克龙又一次的策略，就像去年突袭式选举一样，再次威胁举行选举。这是为了试图吓唬国民议会，让他们做他想做的事情。但愿这次能出台一些明智的政策，并且能够组建政府。

I mean if nothing happens if things stands water actually uh the budget deficit will will improve. But the question really is is that whether it's 2027 and and the presidential election or before that if we do get either a hard left or indeed the the the the Le Pen um u socialism version that the the France is going to be in a very different different uh painful world.

我的意思是，如果什么都没有发生，如果情况保持不变，那么财政赤字实际上会改善。但真正的问题是，无论是在2027年总统大选时，还是在那之前，如果我们迎来的是一个极左翼政府，或者甚至是Le Pen的社会主义版本，法国将进入一个非常不同的、痛苦的世界。

Mostly the market expects this not to happen and at the moment that's why we're only inching slightly higher.

大多数市场人士预计这种情况不会发生，而目前这正是我们只略微上涨的原因。

法国局势与“特拉斯时刻”的比较

Can we put to bed comparisons to the Liz Truss era when we think about the situation looking at France today? Lionel.

Lionel，当我们今天思考法国的局势时，能否就此打住与Liz Truss时代的比较？

Well, I think Liz Truss and Brexit are kind of useful barometers of what happens when a country sort of tests uh its reputation and long-held perceptions from from the market. Uh basically I think as Marx has said the the ECB is there, the euro is there. Okay, France is too big to fail.

Well，我认为Liz Truss和脱欧是衡量一个国家测试其声誉和市场长期认知会发生什么的有用指标。基本上，我认为正如Marcus所说，欧洲央行在那里，欧元在那里。好吧，法国“大到不能倒”。

So I think that there will be a question of okay, if there's a staring match between Frankfurt and Berlin and Paris, who's who's going to move first? But I think trust is frankly a useful reminder not to take things uh too far. And I am concerned that if the politics gets more radical and Le Pen becomes a little less mainstream and her number two decides to go a bit more radical as well on issues like pensions and taxation, you could get uh a much worse economic situation over the next few years and you could end up with something approaching a truss moment even if it's not exactly the same.

所以我认为会有这样的问题：如果法兰克福、柏林和巴黎之间陷入僵局，谁会先让步？但坦率地说，Truss的经历是一个有用的提醒，不要把事情做得太过分。我担心的是，如果政治变得更加激进，Le Pen变得不那么主流，她的二号人物在养老金和税收等问题上也更加激进，那么未来几年法国可能会面临更糟糕的经济形势，甚至可能出现类似Truss的时刻，即使不完全相同。

So I don't think you can put it entirely to bed. Marcus is the other ingredient for this to turn into a trust situation that there needs to be a structural idiosyncrasy in the French bond market like we had with LDI in the UK.

所以我不认为可以完全撇开这种可能性。Marcus，要让这种情况变成Truss式的局面，是否还需要法国债券市场存在结构性的特殊性，就像我们在英国遇到的LDI那样？

Uh good question. No, I mean there is something you know going on at the moment in in Holland and their pension system. Um but not so much in in France. Um where the breakdown comes is is it used to be called bund plus whereby particularly Japanese investors would happily buy French debt uh which is you know larger than even Italian in in scale um believing they were getting the the equivalent of of of you know bunt security of German sort of type stuff but with an extra spread that trade as I said no longer happens that's why you get the sort of you know no longer are interested in in France you avoid France it's not so much you actively sell you just don't put any more money and you and when stuff matures you don't reinvest it and that is you know I think uh where we we have a situation if we do get France downgraded by a second or third rating agency uh we've obviously seen Fitch but we over the course of the next two or three months uh leading up into the end of the year when also they have this uh excessive deficit procedure they have to get through Brussels that you might see that some of the index bomb funds have to start uh selling um because France is no longer sufficiently rated uh double A and slips down.

嗯，好问题。不，我的意思是，荷兰现在正在发生一些关于其养老金系统的事情。但在法国，情况并非如此。……崩溃的根源在于，以前被称为“bund plus”的交易，即日本投资者乐于购买法国债券，其规模甚至超过意大利债券，他们认为自己获得了相当于德国债券的安全性和类型，但还有额外的利差。正如我所说，这种交易不再发生，这就是为什么你会看到……人们不再对法国感兴趣，而是避开法国。与其说是积极卖出，不如说是不再投入更多资金，而且当债券到期时，也不再续投。我想，如果法国被第二家或第三家评级机构下调评级，我们就会陷入这种情况。我们已经看到了惠誉（Fitch）的下调，但在接下来的两到三个月里，也就是年底之前，当他们还必须通过布鲁塞尔的“过度赤字程序”时，你可能会看到一些指数基金不得不开始抛售，因为法国的评级不再是足够的AA级，而是有所下滑。

So that that's one um one potential thing, but that again will be very much a slow burn. I think we'll see that coming from quite a long way away.

所以这是第一个潜在因素，但同样会是一个缓慢的过程。我认为我们将很早就看到它的到来。

法国公众的态度与短期展望

Can you just give us a sense to wrap up this conversation of of where the French public are in all of this as well. I do get the impression from the limited conversations I have that everyone's just a bit sick of it. Is that a fair assessment?

您能否在总结本次对话时，给我们一个法国公众对此事的看法？我确实感觉，从我有限的交流来看，每个人都对此感到厌倦。这是公平的评估吗？

Yeah, si sick, tired, disgusted, fed up, whatever you want, whatever adjective you want. the the the thing is that there's always there's always a there's two potential outcomes, right? Either France becomes a country almost like the Netherlands or other countries where the politics is crazy but somehow people carry on, businesses carry on, the economy carries on. We've seen a bit of that. Um or my concern is that we get uh much much worse to come.

是的，病了，累了，厌恶，受够了，随你怎么说，用任何形容词都可以。问题是，总会有……总会有两种潜在的结果，对吧？要么法国会变成一个像荷兰或其他国家一样的国家，政治疯狂但人们、企业和经济却能继续运转。我们已经看到了一点点这种迹象。或者，我担心的是，我们将面临……更糟糕的局面。

There seems to be a nihilistic almost nihilistic view in society. huge distrust of politicians, loss of faith in policy discussed almost with the political class and that I think is very dangerous for the future.

社会上似乎存在一种虚无主义，近乎虚无主义的看法。对政治家极度不信任，对政策失去信心，与政治阶层几乎形同陌路，我认为这对未来非常危险。

And and just in the short term, uh what do you think is going to happen this week?

那么，就短期而言，您认为本周会发生什么？

Uh I think Matt Horn is going to keep doing these kind of hail Mary moves, but as I said, I do think parliamentary elections are the most likely outcome if not the end of this year and the start of next year.

嗯，我认为Matt Horn会继续采取这些“绝望的尝试”，但正如我所说，我认为突袭式议会选举是最有可能的结果，可能是在今年年底或明年初。

Okay. Leon here with me in Paris and Bloomberg opinion. Uh Marcus Ashworth joining us as well. Thank you to you both for talking us through uh the various aspects of this unfolding crisis. You can read the latest from both Marcus and Lionel at bloomberg.comward slash opinion.

好的。Leon和我在这里巴黎，来自彭博社观点。Marcus Ashworth也加入了我们。非常感谢你们两位向我们阐述这次不断升级的危机的各个方面。您可以在bloomberg.com/opinion阅读Marcus和Lionel的最新文章。