All right. Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the market close. We are live and we have got a lot of different headlines that are going on back and forth. In about 20 minutes, we will have Jason on for the show and we will get into technical Tuesday and we'll get all of his updates on what's going on from a technical perspective.

But we had some interesting markets. We were going relatively green until honestly the last like 20 minutes and then we started going red again. I mean, we flipped green for a very quick second on the S&P 500. Certain names did go green. Uh, but now, as you can see, the S&P 500 right there, 661.32. We are back down for the day. The lowest we got to on the day, at least during the market open, was 655.86.

So, it is nice to see that you're getting a little bit of reprieve. At one point, we got to 665 on the day. Uh, but it looks like we are going to end out red. At one point, we were down 1.5%. Now, we are down 1.66 or 63% on the day.

I did do some buying. I opened up the wallets, did some buying. Uh did not do any buying yesterday. Did very little buying last week. I did some buying. Very, very small nibbles on four names or three names. Uh Nebius, Amazon, and the next one that everyone's going to love or hate at the same time, good old BMR. Very, very small nibbles on these three.

But after they bounce just a little bit and you know maybe that bounce is fake. Maybe those are going to be dead cap bounces. We're going to see how that plays out. But uh have been waiting for a while on BMR. I mean quite frankly been waiting a month on that. Nebas been waiting since like 97 until it really got much lower than that. Uh and then Amazon kind of just gave back the entire freaking earnings move. I mean I was buying Amazon at 214 212 had a nice little jump and got to 255 and now it gave it all back today. Those are three of the names. Gave a little bit of a nibble on. Let me know if anyone bought anything in the chat.

I mean, you had some names get a big rebound. Meta went from 583. I did not pick up Meta at 583, so I did not catch that bottom, but now that's at 601. We'll see if 583 ends up actually being the bottom, but 601, nice recovery. Meta did have some news today about uh them not being ruled in a legal monopoly from a US court. So, that was one of the good headlines for Meta, but then over overall the entire market started rebounding and that was good for Meta in of itself. SoFi above 25 but still stuck below 27. Google right there 285. We have some big updates on Gemini that we'll talk about.

Nvidia unfortunately could not really break through back into the green bounced from 179 has not really touched 179 now at 182. Uh we'll talk more about the updates with Nvidia and Microsoft investing in Anthropic because that was another big headline today. And then Microsoft right there 494. That one bounced off 486. Can't believe it even went to 486. Wow, I did not see that. 494 still down 2.5% on the day.

So, that is what we've got across the board in this market. Again, it doesn't look like we're going to end out green, but it's not the complete bloodbath that it was in the morning. And that goes back to this idea of the choppiness of the markets. The market's waiting for a little bit of uh security from Nvidia earnings. We do have some government data that we got an update from. We are going to be getting PPI uh in about five days. So, we were supposed to get it tomorrow, but uh it now says we are getting it um let me pull this up in a second on November 25th. So, actually a little bit longer than five days in about a week. And then US import and export price indices for September will be released December 3rd. So, PPI for September, November 25th, US import export price indices on uh December 3rd for September.

So, we are going to get a lot more data. We did get that jobless claims last night which was super important. 232,000 jobs um that filed for unemployment or people that filed for unemployment. As you can see, the Fed probabilities are back above 51% which means at least it's better than where it was yesterday at 41. So, I think that along with a little bit of calmness around the AI trade started getting the market to warm up a little bit, but in no way or shape are we out of the woods. It just seems like maybe it's not as absolutely horrible as it was early in the morning.

I didn't buy Google today, but goodness, Sundar is making me want to buy Google at basically all-time highs. Gemini 3 is absolutely incredible. There's a lot of things to look at, but here is their release video from Google AI Studio, and it's pretty much getting universal praise across the board.

Bite coding in AI Studio with Gemini 3 lets you build anything. Build entirely new experiences. Create apps that see. Make tools that listen. Build apps with a single prompt. [music] Get inspired. >> [music] >> Refine [music] >> and refine some more [music] >> right now. >> Share with a friend [music] >> and remix. >> Then share with the world. >> [music]

It's pretty incredible some of the things that they're showing off. I mean, I didn't get through all the examples, but some of the ones I saw today are just kind of crazy. I mean, this person right here said, "I asked Gemini 3 Pro to create a 3D Lego editor in one shot. Enailed the UI, complex spatial logic, and all the functionality." And there's a lot of more examples that were uploaded today.

So, so what is the takeaway from this outside of like unbelievably bullish Google and just like the the praise that Sundar deserves for uh getting Gemini 3 out there? I think it's AI is real. [laughter] Like what you're seeing on the screen is only possible because of AI. So maybe a little bit of a reminder to the entire market that AI is a very real thing. It's not a fad or it's not fake.

And that you need a lot of data center compute, GPUs, etc. TPUs. Gemini 3 was trained on a lot of Google TPUs to be able to make this thing a reality. These are the benchmarks right here. Gemini 3 pros beating pretty much everything. I mean, even Elon had to uh comment and say how surprised he was by the level of success that Gemini 3 is uh is deploying.

And again, all of that comes through this integrated ecosystem of the data centers, the compute, the GPUs, the power that's necessary for all of those data centers to make sense. the cloud computing like this stuff all goes t in in tandem with each other which is why we've seen this entire industry start becoming a massive investing opportunity.

and the other person that understands how big of a deal it is are the Saudis US government is planning to approve the sale of chips to the Saudi AI venture Humane Humane is a subsidiary of the public investment fund in Saudi Arabia that has lots of money to be able to invest in all of these chipbased companies and build out more data centers remember Nvidia's guidance does not include include China and it does not include the Middle East. So that could be the upside surprise if this does get approved. We're probably not going to get approved for China. But if we do get approved in terms of the chip companies with Nvidia and AMD for the Middle East, then obviously that would be bullish.

Here's what the Saudi prince said today. We're thinking of increasing [snorts] our investment from 600 billion to 1 trillion in the United States.

>> Today it's very important uh uh time in our history because there's also a lot of things that we're working in in the future. uh we believe uh in the future of West of America, we believe in what you're doing, Mr. President, it's really creating a lot of good things and good foundation to create more economic growth, more business in America and also your work for the world uh uh peace. I believe Mr. present in the today and tomorrow we're going to announce that we are going to increase that that 600 billion to almost $1 trillion of investment real investment and real opportunity by details in many areas and the agreement that we are signing today in many areas in technology in AI in uh materials magnets uh etc that will create a lot of investment opportunities

>> so you are doing that now you're saying to me now that the 600 million will be one trillion >> definitely because what we are signing facilitate that. >> I like that. >> No, that's great. That's I appreciate that.

>> By the way, you know how Trump just slapped him on the knee? In Saudi Arabia, if you touch the prince, you can go to jail for a long time. So, uh, yeah, you're you're not really supposed to touch the prince, but I guess if you're the president, that's okay.

>> Great. It's No, we're doing numbers that nobody's ever done. And in all fairness, if you didn't see potential in the US, you wouldn't be doing that. You don't want to lose money. >> As you said, Mr. President, it's the most hottest country in the the planet. But what you're creating is not about opportunity today. It's about also long-term opportunity in America that will affect American economy positively in the next coming decades, preparing the right foundation of emerging technologies that that's a game changer for America in a good way. And we want to be part of it.

Again, at its core, is the $1 trillion investment good for the United States? Obviously, is it good for the AI sector? Yes. But what is the takeaway from that story and the Google story? The Google Gemini 3 story is like, oh my goodness, there are models that are becoming better and better and better. They are getting integrated through every part of our life and we're not going to go back to a world where there's not AI.

The takeaway from uh um the Saudi prince is that they understand in terms of at least in the context of Saudi Arabia that they cannot rely on oil money for the next 10 years. and the prince has been very vocal about the idea that he thinks that previous leadership in Saudi Arabia was way too focused on something that is inevitably going to die out in terms of oil and they have to get ready for life in 2050 versus life in 2025 and that requires massive amounts of investment and so as a result of all that investment obviously that money is going to come into the microns of the world the AMDs of the world the Nvidas of the world.

the question becomes can the market move past this hiccup of navigating what they're feeling is a sentiment shift in the market. Now, either it's a sentiment shift, which is the best case scenario for all of us because sentiment will potentially shift to the positive side, or it's a structural shift. And if it is a structural shift, then obviously there's more downsides to come.

I personally don't believe it's a structural shift. I think all the evidence we see every single day is less about it being a structural shift unless we get into a recession, which is another question. But if it's not, then this is more sentiment that everyone kind of has to navigate with.

Also, you know, I was kind of thinking about it today. Uh when you when you really look at it, August, we were supposed to crash, but we went higher. September, we were supposed to crash, but we went higher. October, although uh it's supposed to be an October month, we ended up having some choppiness, but we still ended 2.5% up for the month. So, November, we're now down 4%. I know a lot of us are down more than 4%, but at least on the S&P 500, it's down 4%.

At its core, it feels like this pullback, and I hate to say this, and everyone's going to hate me saying this, is healthy. And I know no one wants to hear that, but we were green six months in a row. The idea that we're taking a 4% pullback in November, I mean, that's just not something that to me means that it's a a bubble that now has to has to pop. And I know that's what the bears are sort of like screaming, but does that make sense to be mad that we're down 4% after having six months in a row of green?

I mean, people are saying get ready for 2022. Where everything collapses, the NASDAQ goes down 40%. Even if we get a 10% move, so another 6% down from here, that puts us at 6,200, I think. And I think a lot of people would agree with this, even if they would hate to admit it. It is way healthier to be 6,200 at the end of November on the S&P uh for the overall market, which means a lot of stocks probably have a lot more down to go than to moonshot up to 7,200.

And I know it would be really fun to be like Tuesday, November 18th, 7200, boom, S&P above 7. But it wouldn't be real, right? Like it wouldn't be uh based on any logic. It would just be a lot of euphoria, just be a lot of hype. you wouldn't get any of the froth or excess leverage out of the system which has obviously started to leave the system especially in the crypto markets especially in a lot of stocks that don't have any earnings.

and so as much as it sucks to go through and it obviously is painfilled it's not the end all beall if it is not a structural decline in the concept of the bull market which you know it could be I just disagree with that assumption but it's rather something that we all have to deal with and I think that's not the craziest idea I mean quite frankly again if we were at 73 7400 like that's just begging for an epic collapse apps versus, hey, let's not get crazy. I mean, we get we got pretty close. We got to 68 66 6,890. You know, we were less than 1% away. Took a bit of a breather. Maybe we have to take more of a breather, allowing valuation multiples to compress, allowing the market to digest a lot of the earnings that have happened. And then we can get ready for the next leg up if the earnings can justify that, which, you know, as much as this sucks, I don't think it's crazy to imagine that would take the case.

62 S&P 500 means no growth. Yeah, it would be hard to imagine we get there, but if we do, I just think a lot of stocks would look very attractive because that would be eliminating the majority of the year's gains. And again, at that point, you got to ask yourself, all right, well, why do these stocks deserve to be here? And if they don't deserve to be here, those would be opportunities I think the market cares about.

Tuesday, November 18th, 4 p.m. Thank you everybody for being here. The stock market is now closed. [music] All right, we are done for the day. Definitely still a red day. 660.17 on the S&P, which means we were down about 82% almost 1%. BMR actually held up a bit, up 4 and a.5% on the day. Nebas 5.3. Nebas got to 9250 at one point. Amazon got all the way up to 227, closed at 222, took off 4% on Amazon. Microsoft got a big downgrade as well. That also got the street a little upset. Fell to 486, now at 493, down 2.7%.

The other big news of the day for those that missed it is Anthropic is getting an investment from Microsoft and Nvidia of up to about $15 billion collectively. And Anthropic is going to be buying 30 billion of compute from Azure uh as of today's announcement. And that brings up questions of the circular stuff. We'll talk more about that in a bit, but that was also a very big announcement today.

Uh and quite frankly I think that announcement came out because Google's Gemini 3.0 came out and you know Microsoft Anthropic Nvidia kind of wanted to make sure that people understood that uh GPUs are still important from Nvidia not just Google's TPUs and Anthropic you know wanted to give a lot of publicity to their model not just on Gemini. So I think it made sense the timing of this announcement in the context of Gemini 3.0. It's healthy competition across all the model companies.

Cloudflare right there down about 3% on the day. That one did have a shutdown throughout the entire morning and that's why a lot of websites weren't working. PayPal actually did it fall below 60 did not fall below 60 but closed 2% on the day. Palanteer right there was down about 2.29% falling another.3% after hours. Hoodie did get to 116. Hood closed at 11430. The Q's 596 down about 1.2% after hours as well. Lily did make a new all-time high or did got did get yeah pretty much got there 140 52- week high30 up 85% on the day so you saw some of the a healthcare and defensives get the rotation out of tech and that tech rotation has been happening for the better part of two weeks right now.

S&P 500 659 after hours the Epstein bill did pass 427 to1 um that happened 427 to1 uh in the house it's now going to the senate to continue um getting a vote. Klay Higgins, Representative Klay Higgins was the one person who didn't vote for it, which kind of embarrassing. I mean, if everyone votes for it and you're the one guy who doesn't, you start getting a lot of questions on why, but nonetheless, he was the one person who didn't vote for it. And uh now it goes to the Senate, and if it gets approved in the Senate, we should be getting somewhat of these files released over the coming days. VIX ended up 7.42% on the day, 2404 on the VIX. as that one ended up going green for the day.

Um, another big headline, so outside of the Google Gemini news and the anthropic stuff, you have this headline which kind of went under the radar, uh, given all the other AI stuff we had today, but I mean it's a real things, folks. Deputy White House chief of staff said the administration is considering options to send millions of Americans $2,000 dividend payments funded by tariff revenues without congressional approval, according to to Bloomberg.

I don't know how they're going to do it, but I guess they're going to do it. And the fact that they're looking to do it without congressional approval, again, Congress has the power of the purse. I don't know how the heck they're going to do that, but they're trying to. And so, it looks like these STEMI checks, I mean, I don't know if they're coming, but the White House is definitely thinking that they're going to find a way to get them to get out there.

Uh, Aswave, he was on CNBC. Let's listen to what he had to say. curious about what people's thoughts are for his analysis. Again, he did a big podcast over the weekend, got a lot of different views, basically saying we are officially in a bubble. Here he is confirming that argument and explaining his logic for why he thinks we're in a bubble. Jason should be on in about 5 to 10 minutes and then we will get into technical Tuesday.

But how do you know we're we're overvalued? It's easy for people to say yes, this is a bubble based on what? based on the fact that people are throwing money at investing without really telling me where the money is going to come back from those investments. Starting with, you know, Sam Alman, he's asked about how does open AI expect to make money blowing off that answer without giving me a business sense of open AI. What I get are companies like Oracle, like Meta, like Microsoft, like OpenAI throwing insane amounts of money to building AI architecture without providing any tangible. I mean, I don't even want evidence. At least give me a story of how all this investment is going to play off in terms of products and services on which he can make money.

So, so you my quick response to that is I'm not saying Sam Alman had the best answer and I know there's a lot of confusion over how these companies are going to monetize, but to say that there is absolutely no understanding of the business model, how they're going to generate revenue. I mean, if you listen to the opening eye CFO at the Wall Street Journal conference, I listened to the entire 40-minute keynote she gave a week ago. I mean, she introduced a lot of different business models outside of just consumer subscription and advertising. I know Sam Alman did not have the best response there. But to use that response and say, "Well, there is no way in hell they're going to be able to build a big business off of this. Therefore, everything is fake." I don't know. It just feels a little a little misguided based on all the different things that they have. They could still fail, but I don't know if his answer is the number one reason for why OpenAI is done.

agree with that that downgrade today of Amazon and Microsoft at least in the narration around it which is don't you can't we can't do the trust us anymore. You got to show me now. We we gave you the benefit of the doubt. We drove your stock prices up and now it's like okay we need some tangible answers on where all this money is going. But what if we can't get those for a while? We may be faced with months if not years before we know

>> and that's the reason going from overvaluation to deciding to sell short is a bridge that's too far for me. Clearly AI is overvalued but you ask me is it overpriced? That's a different question. That's about catalyst and corrections. And you're right that that moment of reckoning might take days it might take weeks it might take months. I mean remember Alan Greenspan warned about irrational exuberance in November of 1996. The correction itself did not happen till 2000. So you could be waiting a long time for that catalyst and correction. So even though we might accept that that AI is overvalued, I'm not sure what the immediate followup is going to be for you as an investor other than not to pour in all of your money into these AI stocks because that's asking for trouble.

>> I I think it's interesting when I look at your notes to our producers that you you think Nvidia is going to beat, right? I mean, I think everybody agrees that they're they're going to beat, but that the stock price is likely to go down. Why do you think that?

>> Because I think markets expect you to I mean, the expectations game is a strange one. If you keep beating analyst expectations by 15% every quarter and you beat them by only 10% per market, that's a negative surprise. And I think increasingly as these companies have become better and better at beating the analyst forecast of numbers, markets are building that in to their expectations. I'm actually arguing that this is a second set of expectations out there that we don't observe, which is what's driving the market. So that would be my prediction. They'll beat analyst expectations, but they won't beat market expectations.

Is there a stock in the group whether it's Nvidia or another that that garners the most attention or the most caution do you think?

>> I think the more a company spends the more caution is called for. So I would just take the AI spending of each of these companies. Now outside of Nvidia and the more spending they have the more cautious I get which is one reason it might if you're if you're planning to buy one of the bank seven stocks it's not a great time to buy any of them. I would say by Apple because it's the most cautious of these companies and this is a time where caution might actually be the by word for which of these companies will walk out of these with the least damage.

Apple's trading at 40 times earnings and not really growing as fast as the other companies. The other companies are trading at cheaper multiples and growing faster. But he is so mad about the capex spend that his argument is buy Apple instead. And that goes to show the kind of divergence in thinking between some parts of the street and other parts that just feel this capex is unrealistic. It makes no sense. It is not justified enough to the point that you'd buy a company that is way more expensive than Meta, Amazon or Google and it's not growing as fast just because they're not spending that much on capex.

That's so funny. Um, you know, this this company was so criticized, we've mentioned this several times over the last week for being behind and not going all in like the others. And now we've had this market upset and all this volatility and we're like, well, Apple looks great compared to the others who aren't spending as much. Let me let me finish with this this last question. The debt raises that we've seen among the hyperscalers and these so-called circular deals. What do you make of all that?

>> I'll take the circular deals first. To me, it's a sign that they're worried. They're worried that the entire AI in the infrastructure could be put at risk if there's a disruption. I think of deepseek a year ago where essentially you change the AI story by saying maybe you don't need these chips and these huge data centers and what I see is this preemptive setting up to prevent that from happening by making themselves the status quo. So to me it's a sign of fear not a sign of optimism or confidence about the future. The credit so far if you look at the credit as a percentage of cash flows of the big tech companies throw off it's not to me troublesome. That's not where I think the catalyst would come from. But I think the smaller AI companies that are using credit are putting themselves at risk.

Jason: this is about trading. And so, if you're uh if you're if you're very much into investing, first of all, I don't want to scare any investors, and I don't think any investors should be scared about this. Num number one, I think there's a lot of shenanigans out there in the markets today and people are I I look at the feed that I get on X and I'm like I see all kinds of crap flying around all the you know [laughter] things are fl like you know it's it's all going to burn blah blah blah right now. And I mean first of all it's it's it's like noise.

Um and I'm like this pullback this pullback. I look at the charts and I I got I got to be honest. I'm like, first of all, what what what what the hell what pullback o on at the [laughter] index level are we talking about? Because like we're still really close to the highs number one. Um and and it really hasn't been that much of a pullback at the at at the index level. But that said, you know, a lot of people's highf flyers and and heavy growth stocks, my hoodie included, or Palunteers included, have been hit pretty hard. But that's that kind of comes with the territory. So, um I mean

Amit: also it's it's a good disclaimer. If Jason says a price level in a stock, remember he's talking about if you're long Amazon for the next 10 years and Jason thinks Amazon might touch 210. Please do not run for the hills and get scared and want to kill Jason because he's he's a little bearish on Amazon because at the end of day this is trading and a lot of this is shortterm.

Jason: Well, to be honest, well, to be fair, I actually bought some Amazon stock today. Wow. of all of them, I just heard the clip that you had this guy talking about and I mean it's a small like not even like a token piece, but when we're talking about investing, it's completely different than trading, right? And I think that that you have to preface this segment with that trading and investing are not really compatible from a time frame perspective, right? because your time horizon or how long you you you expect to have money actively moving in the market that that that time horizon is completely different. So, uh from an investment perspective, it's like ooh this is actually should be exciting [laughter] like from that from that perspective. Um cuz you know I might I might get some Black Friday deals but I might not either. And I just want to be prepared from that perspective. And uh, you know, from a trading, you know, viewpoint, it it might be a little bit different.

Jason: Yeah. All right. So, I have uh I have the timer on the top left. I'm going to shrink it a little bit. Right now, I'm starting at five minutes. So, this is SPY. Um really quick, I posted something about the SMAs and the on my screen. I have the 20-day, which is white, the 50-day, which is blue, and the 200 day, which is red. And what I will say is, you know, if you've watched this segment for a long time, what I always talk about is the distance in between the SMAs, like the distance in between these SMAs right here. And that that is and always will be the most important thing to to look at. And the best the best entries are are really when it's it's very tight, right?

from a net new money long perspective, what's clear is that okay, so this is this is very wide and and we can see, hey, look, these are about to contract. That's what we can see at the moment. It always starts, by the way, with with the loss of the 20-day simple moving average, which is the white one. And [clears throat] today is the first day that we actually did lose or we opened below the 50-day simple moving average. So that's where we are at the moment. What I will follow this up with with is that these these lines, these little squiggles on my chart are are kind of just that. And they are they're also magnets. So, I don't want you to think of them like support and resistance cuz that is kind of a misnomer. People get that idea, but they should not be thought of like that. They're they're momentum indicators. They're general l they're completely lagging indicators

but they will they will give you an idea of momentum and and what you want to look at is the slope. So, right now the 20-day is starting to slope a little bit down if price does continue to go down. But also know that these are very tight together and it's going to be a while before these two can start to cross. And what we're looking for, if things were actually going to if things were actually going to turn kind of bearish, it's going to be a while. And and what these actually do is they act as magnets. So, it's very very possible that we get this pop back up and this 50-day simple moving average acts as a magnet and price hugs it very closely while the 20-day catches up to it.

If we do continue from a from a m momentum perspective and what large funds are probably screaming about is that when you lose this, what happens is that you tend when you you lose something like this is that you tend to travel towards the 200 day simple moving average. Here's another one here where you tend to travel towards the 200 day simple here. you tend to travel towards the 200 day simple pretty much nearly every time in history. It doesn't mean that you breach it, but you tend to travel towards it. Let me get back to where we are. And and because this is a very steep and and we'll say uncorrected slope and the trend has as of today, day one, one day doesn't make a trend. We have a lot of news coming. Um [clears throat] basically been today broken. Uh if it if it does continue then that that does I heard you say a number earlier that does bring you to 615 as where the 200 day simple lies and that actually would be your dip by which also by the way kind of lines up with these prior tops over here and that would be that typical um pullback that is not a bare market. That is completely different, right? And and to be crystal clear, that is that is a typical pullback and that is not a bare market. A bare market is completely below all of these SMAs, which we are very far away from. We're not even close to that. So, no, we're not talking bare market. No, we have no signs of bare market. We only have signs of a typical pullback. And that is very to that is absolutely to be expected in any normal sit any normal market. And that right there is actually healthy.

Amit: Do do you think at all that the there's an argument for the S&P 500 is topped like is there a legitimate claim from a price topped in terms of like for this week? No. for like for the next year like it's the top of the cycle like from a technical does any I mean maybe fundamentals are different but does the technical say that

Jason: you can't you can't say that from a um so we're running out of time but like the only thing here is that here's the last low here's a high here is a lower high that we caught last week and we today as of today have breached that lower low have breached that most recent low unless we're trending below 650 No, I I I just you like for the next year. No, no way, man. No, no, because Okay, so Emit sent me this video earlier and I was trying to understand what his context was. But when I say typical pullback, this typical pullback will normally resolve itself like this, right? Like to be like that's normal. like that would that's that's normally how this pullback will resolve itself. I mean end of story. So defending defending 615 is very important but we are far away from even touching those levels.

Amit: Let's transition into Nvidia then because that I think that goes hand in hand with the S&P. How are you thinking of this one and its price action? The one thing I will say on Nvidia is that we hit 212 on a really big announcement at GTC and now we're back down to 180. One could argue that if he never said the 500 billion in five quarters, we would have never seen 212. So I guess how are you thinking of price action?

Jason: So Nvidia here, this is one of our charts. If he never said what was it? Yeah. So I mean, you've been saying this a lot and I and I and I couldn't agree more, right? Like earnings are good. I think that's that's true across the board. The the one caveat is that the market is always forward-looking. So what's weird about the market too and and I guess this is a bit of a side note is that the market will punish equities on bad news multiple times over but they won't really uh praise equities [laughter] on the same news multiple times over. So I mean that's that's the market for you. Um we we're in Nvidia is the exact exact same setup as the market from from an SMA perspective. Now, SMAs are not not not price action. That's candlesticks. And candlesticks actually are far superior than a smoothing trend line. Um [clears throat] but uh but right now we're still at the same level on Nvidia and Nvidia's what we call point of control here. Uh this is 177 still. That remains like the main area of interest for Nvidia. Um, I I honestly think the best case scenario on the actual earnings it it's fairly flat. It might even pop up a little bit, but unless you're over quite frankly 200, and I mean like trending over 200, which is right here, it it's not it's not really going to be out of the weeds.

cuz it there is a um this snapshot essentially right here um from a technical perspective is technically what we would call distributionary, meaning that this looks like more sellers than buyers. And if the if the sell if the buyer is down here, um we're not enough to continuously bring it higher even over here. This [clears throat] trend at this point in time is actually not holding. And so if if these current buyers from this zone, this is the story of this price action. If these current buyers were not enough to sustain this move in this direction to the upside and keep it going and and more buyers did not step in here to continuously push it higher. Well, then quite frankly, what this story is telling me is that it probably needs to come down a little bit lower to come in and visit a little bit lower support to see if there's any more interest to press it higher. And and right now, I think that this chart, not I think this chart is is basically telling me, wait a second, uh just just to wait. It's it's basically in a holding pattern. Um, and if it can't make a new high over the double top, which is the opposite of a double bottom, um, then then it can't, right? And if this next press to the upside can't break through, well then that is probably likely going to be the sign that you do in fact need to come back lower and revisit at least these lows in this general area.

Jason: Hood and Palanteer are two stocks that are just they're just built different. Like these dips on these two stocks. I I have not seen dips get bought this fast. Uh like these two stocks in quite frankly I I I don't even know the last time I've seen stocks get bought up this fast.

Jason: so here we are on meta. This is my box. And I think it's it's really important to know that look, we've hit my box. Meta, it's the nibble spot. It is literally right in that golden pocket. Not the golden zone. It's literally here. So, what I need to see now is I need to see that structure show up. And I'm I'm I'm still watching like I mean I don't think this could have tagged my actual spot any more perfectly than it did today. And I mean today when we talked last Tuesday it was very much hey look we lose this 633 we are going to go very likely to 585. And that's quite frankly exactly what happened.

Jason: this is an important day for Nebius and this one day candle is uh this is a tell. If candlesticks were a story of if the chart was the story of price action, candlesticks are like the day-to-day drama within the story, right? And and the words or sentences within like this is the alphabet, right? And so what this is telling you is that there was a there was a a singular battle within the day of of Nebus. I mean, sorry to be really dramatic, right? Um, but the battle the battle ensued and and really the bears were in charge today at the beginning of the day cuz we started this little bottom wick means that we started red probably deep red and we started to go down. That's what that means. That's what this is depicting cuz this little bottom wick that's that's what it is. We were we were down we actually were down so much that we were making really new lows. And at some point in the middle of the day, um, there was there was a a push back. There was a a a you know, the the defenses held literally at $82. The defenses held right here and and there was something some it wasn't just a defense, it was a counterattack. Like there was a counterattack that was launched and it it actually was launched so strong that it not only broke back up to the lows of the prior day, but it actually pushed all the way up to the highs to the midpoint of the prior day and up and over that that breach point and actually they won the battle on the day itself. So this this counterattack that was launched by the bear by the bulls on Nebius for today is a pivotal point in the story of of this stock's price action today.

Jason: So, I did buy this one just I mean, it's a tiny nibble. The reason I did is because of the setup like longer term. So, I still like Amazon's setup longer term. And when I It's back to that that SMA, right? Like even though even though like it's more stretched, it's closer in terms of Amazon consolidating. If Amazon consolidates, even if I get a little bit more of a dip, I still like the the idea of a ripsky like that into the foreseeable future. Um, and so because I'm closest to the 200 on Amazon.

Jason: I mean, oddly, okay, so Google ex it's overextended. Uh, but there is zero structure broken here. What what I will say is that so here's earnings right here. The way that I have a system of like, okay, not a system, but like there's a setup that we know is true is that you you you usually get one shot to to break the highs of a power earnings kind of move. So, if this was the big earnings move right here, uh you usually get one shot to actually make new highs. and and Google has had it shot like three or four times, right? Mhm. And it's failed to make new highs. And so what that means is it doesn't it doesn't mean anything really bad, but it means it's not going higher. And it and it does mean that you are at least minimum going into a uh a 45day hold, right? Lit literally. And so we are currently in about halfway through 45day sideways price action. So Google currently is in a perfect spot to start harvesting premium. Um meaning selling calls and probably puts, but but likely just selling calls right now.

Jason: This week by itself as a standalone week I think is going to be very noisy like extremely noisy. I posted something um I don't know if you can pin it uh just just just now on on my ex that I think is like pretty this is my my thoughts honestly on the market is that like it's going to be really noisy with all the stuff that's happening right now and you you you could get faked out in in either way right with early price action throughout the Okay. Uh, I actually expect bumpy bipolar fever dream like manic whipsaws and and um maybe some things end in a gut-wrenching despair, right? But fear, greed, But just ignore the noise, dude. Ignore it. Really, right? Because at the end of the day, you know, things like this 50-day simple moving average, what I posted earlier was that, you know, they act like magnets. And I posted something much earlier here. Uh, and and you may people may have not noticed this, but when I said act like magnets, I don't mean they act like support and resistance. They I mean that they act like magnets. This is meta, right? And so there's going to be time to react. This is magnets. They're not support and resistance. They get sucked and drawn into it, right? And so what what I mean to say is that there's going to be time to react. And I really think that this which is the spy chart, if that 50-day SMA, it's not like you have to sell everything around. I think that you're saying this is not the time to panic. No, I don't. I think if you do that now, you're going to be like really sad about it. [laughter] Like honestly.