中东战略两难:胡塞武装空袭方案的临阵叫停
据《纽约时报》披露,在刚刚过去的周末,唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)总统险些下令对也门的胡塞武装(Houthi militia:也门什叶派反政府武装组织)发起新一轮大规模空袭。据特朗普政府内部官员证实,美军战机已在机翼挂载炸弹,指挥官亦已核准胡塞武装的目标清单,但特朗普在最后一刻决定暂缓执行行动。过去两周内,特朗普一直在是否发动空袭的问题上摇摆不定。一方面,美国核心盟友沙特阿拉伯的王储频繁直接致电,强烈恳求美方介入以应对该组织近期对沙特重新燃起的军事攻势;但另一方面,由于美军当前深陷与伊朗的持续冲突、军事资源极度紧绷,特朗普核心决策圈内多数高级官员对卷入胡塞战局持深度怀疑甚至明确反对态度。
决策层对空袭有效性的顾虑构成了战略评估的关键阻力。去年特朗普曾下令对胡塞武装展开长达近八周的轰炸,美军摧毁了包括雷达系统、弹道导弹阵地和无人机生产中心在内的上千个军事目标;然而,胡塞武装不仅在战后迅速恢复了大部分军事作战能力,甚至开始利用人工智能(AI: 基于数据与算法驱动的计算技术)辅助研发与设计新型导弹。周末期间,胡塞武装向沙特首都利雅得发射了新一轮无人机与弹道导弹,并全面控制了也门沿红海的所有海岸线,这给全球关键的石油和天然气海上航运走廊蒙上了严重阴影。此前胡塞武装并未主动袭击该地区的美国船只,但美方高级官员坦言,一旦美军打响空袭,这一局面将立即逆转。
英文原文
From the New York Times, it's the headlines. I'm Tracy Mumford. Today is Monday, September 21st. Here's what we're covering. The Times has learned that over the weekend, President Trump was on the verge of launching new air strikes against the Houthi militia in Yemen. According to Trump administration officials, yesterday morning, US troops were loading bombs onto warplanes and commanders had approved lists of Houthy targets before Trump decided not to move forward, at least for now. The officials say that for the past two weeks, Trump has been going back and forth about whether to strike the Houthis, who are allied with Iran and have recently reignited fighting with Saudi Arabia. On one side, Trump has been hearing directly from the Saudi crown prince, a major US ally, who has called the president directly to implore him to step into the fight. At the same time, one senior administration official said that most of the president's inner circle has been either deeply skeptical about joining the fight against the Houthis or have opposed it outright, especially given existing strains on the US military caused by the ongoing war with Iran. There are also major questions about how effective any new US strikes would be. Last year, Trump ordered nearly eight weeks of bombing against the Houthis with US forces hitting more than a thousand targets like radar systems, ballistic missile sites, and a drone production hub. But since then, the militia has rebuilt much of its capabilities and has even been using AI tools to develop and engineer new types of missiles. This weekend, the group said it launched a wave of drones and missiles at Riad, the Saudi capital. And recently, the Houthis have taken control of Yemen's entire Red Sea coastline, which could further disrupt another crucial shipping route in the Middle East for oil and gas. Until now, the group hasn't been attacking US ships in the region. But one administration official said that if Trump does order strikes against the militia, that would probably change.
行政权力扩张:媒体限制、科研审查与第三国遣返暴力
在内政与司法边界层面,特朗普政府在新闻自由与高校治理领域推行了激进的限制举措。上周五,白宫正式剥夺了来自 CNN、Politico 和 MS Now 三家媒体记者的出入通行证,特朗普宣称此举是对媒体发布“捏造事实的恶意负面报道”的惩罚措施。这一罕见举措遭到了包括福克斯新闻(Fox News)在内的全美主流媒体记者的强烈谴责;多位法律宪政学者明确指出,剥夺采访权公然违背了美国宪法第一修正案,几乎不可能经受住联邦法院的司法审查。事实上,白宫对舆论的围剿已持续升级:今年夏天,联邦调查局(FBI)曾直接向记者的私人住所送达传票,五角大楼也全面封杀了拒绝签署限制报道承诺书的新闻从业人员。
这种政治权力的深度介入同时延伸至学术资助与移民遣返领域。据《纽约时报》获悉的内部草案,白宫正起草一项行政命令,拟推翻美国国立卫生研究院(National Institutes of Health: 负责公共卫生与生物医学研究的联邦核心机构)传统上基于同行科学价值评估的科研资助机制。该命令计划设立一个外部审查委员会,赋予其否决权,严厉拦截任何不符合总统政治议程的数十亿美元科研拨款,以切断对所谓宣扬“觉醒文化”(woke ideology)高校的财政支持。与此同时,特朗普政府与赤道几内亚签署的“第三国遣返协议”引发了严重的人道主义灾难:多名与该国毫无关联的被遣返人员向《纽约时报》证实,他们抵达后被无限期关押在宛如监狱的破败旅馆内;因抗议恶劣生存环境,有被遣返人员遭到当地警方捆绑、殴打并推下楼梯。尽管美国国务院此前已多次将该国列为存在普遍酷刑与人权践踏的恶名之地,美国国土安全部依然在官方声明中坚称赤道几内亚属于“安全”目的地。
英文原文
Now, three more quick updates on the administration. First, >> so I walk in, I tap my badge, and it beeps a couple of different times. It turns red, blue. >> Journalists from three news outlets, CNN, Politico, and MS Now have been barred from entering the White House. >> So, the officer asked me to hand over my badge. He said that it was disabled. President Trump announced the ban on Friday, saying it was punishment for publishing quote purposely negative stories that he said were untrue. Many other mainstream media outlets, including journalists at Fox News condemned the move, and legal experts say the ban is a clear first amendment violation that's unlikely to survive a court challenge. It is a major escalation of Trump's ongoing battle with the press that covers him. This summer, FBI agents served subpoenas to reporters at their homes, and the Pentagon has blocked access to journalists who refused to sign pledges that would limit their reporting. Also, the Times has learned that the White House is taking a new step in its pressure campaign against universities. It's drafting an executive order that would cement the president's ability to control who gets billions of dollars in federal research money from the National Institutes of Health. Traditionally, the NIH has selected projects based on expert review of their scientific merit, funding labs across the country, many at universities, for research into things like heart disease, cancer, infectious diseases. But the executive order would create a new external committee with the power to veto any grants that don't conform to the president's political agenda, according to people with knowledge of the draft. It appears to be the latest attempt by the White House to cut off funding to universities it's accused of promoting woke ideology. In response to questions from the Times, a spokesman for the NIH said the agency remains committed to funding research, quote, to benefit the health of the American people. And the Times has learned that people deported by the Trump administration to Equatorial Guinea have been facing violence and abuse. Equatorial Guinea is one of the places the administration struck a so-called third country deportation deal with to accept deportes who have no connection there. After arriving in central Africa from the US, one man described the Times how they'd been held indefinitely in a run-down hotel that became a de facto prison, texting, "We are in imminent danger now and can't keep living like this." Then after speaking out about the conditions there, he and another man were tied up, beaten, and shoved down a flight of stairs by police officers. According to witnesses and lawyers, experts and human rights advocates had warned about this kind of violence when the White House started striking these deals with authoritarian countries. The State Department itself previously said that Equatorial Guinea is notorious for human rights violations, including torture. The government of Equatorial Guinea didn't respond to requests for comment. In a statement, the Department of Homeland Security said Equatorial Guinea was quote safe.
掠夺性算法指控:DraftKings 如何利用 AI 精准捕猎赌博成瘾者
在商业技术领域,《纽约时报》发表了一项针对在线博彩巨头 DraftKings 的重磅数据调查。在过去十年中,DraftKings 凭借无孔不入的广告营销,从传统的体育博彩快速扩张至在线赌场及预测市场,通过智能手机将博彩带入数百万普通大众的日常生活。然而,数据记者亚历克斯·克拉芬(Alex Clavven)与其团队在深度采访了数十位前员工并查阅大量内部绝密文件后发现,该公司的技术构建过程伴随着严重的伦理问题。参与系统构建的数据分析师与软件工程师透露,他们早期的工作重点是利用用户行为数据训练机器学习(Machine Learning: 人工智能的一种分支,通过从数据中学习规律并预测未来行为)模型,用以预测哪些客户最容易受到促销诱导并维持下注行为。多位核心技术人员指认,这套算法本质上是一套“掠夺性技术”,因为系统精准圈定并频繁推送免费下注优惠的最佳目标用户,往往正是那些存在严重赌博成瘾倾向的脆弱人群。
这种数据驱动的商业收割行为直接加剧了美国全境的成瘾危机。例如,自俄亥俄州于 2023 年将体育博彩合法化以来,当地戒赌援助热线的求助呼叫量暴增了四倍以上。一名正在接受成瘾治疗的 DraftKings 用户在接受《纽约时报》采访时表示,即使仅仅打开电子邮箱都会面临强烈的复发风险;其账户往来记录显示,他在短短两周内就收到了来自 DraftKings 的多达 40 封定制化促销邮件。面对报道披露的证据,DraftKings 在公开声明中予以否认,坚决驳斥其营销行为存在不当定向瞄准客户的指控,并宣称平台始终专注于“量力而行、出于娱乐消遣目的”的健康博彩群体。
英文原文
Boom. DraftKings Casinos combining two things I love, touchdowns and bonus rounds. Over the last decade, the online gambling company DraftKings has become a big brand in American life, popping up with online ads, billboards, etc. Spin your way at DraftKings Casino and experience Flex Spins. >> It started out focused on sports betting and has now moved into online casinos and prediction markets. DraftKings has basically helped make gambling accessible to millions of people right on their phones. And with phones comes user data. A lot of user data. >> I was curious, what are these companies doing with your data? So I started reaching out to former employees of DraftKings. That included data analysts, software engineers, people who were in the room actually building the technology. And what we found was a lot of them had serious regrets about their work and about how customer data practices were targeting certain types of gamblers. My colleague Alex Clavven is a data journalist. He's part of the team behind a new investigation about how DraftKings has harnessed users information. They talked with dozens of former DraftKings employees and reviewed internal company documents. And Alex says a big thing that jumped out is how DraftKings has tried to hone its promotional offers. Things like an email offering a free bet to keep people playing. One analyst I spoke with said that he was part of one of the earliest efforts to use customer data and to use machine learning, which is a type of artificial intelligence used to find patterns in data and predict outcomes to figure out who would be the best targets for the company to send promotions. And he grew concerned that people that the algorithms would identify as good targets could have gambling problems. He was not the only one who raised those concerns. Several people who my colleagues and I spoke with who worked directly on these systems grew worried that they were building what they described as predatory technology. >> Alex says all of this is happening as concerns about gambling addiction are growing across the country. For example, calls to one gambling hotline in the state of Ohio have more than quadrupled since sports betting was legalized there in 2023. One DraftKings user who sought treatment for gambling addiction told the Times that just opening up his email inbox felt like a relapse risk. Records show that over the course of just two weeks, he got 40 promotional offers from DraftKings. In a statement, DraftKings said it rejects any implication that its marketing practices improperly target customers. And an executive said the company is focused on people who are quote betting within their means, are betting for entertainment, and betting for fun. You can read the full investigation at ny times.com.
文化世纪榜单与人工智能听众征集
在严肃的新闻议题之外,《纽约时报》启动了 21 世纪最佳电视剧集的重磅评选。在此前评选的 21 世纪百大书籍(埃莱娜·费兰特的《我的天才女友》登顶)与百大电影(奉俊昊的《寄生虫》夺冠)引发全球广泛讨论后,文化团队联合了数百位好莱坞一线演员、剧集统筹及行业资深人士共同投票,从即日起以倒序方式陆续揭晓 100 部最佳剧集。在首日公布的第 100 位至第 81 位榜单中,涵盖了阿丽克西斯·布莱德尔(Alexis Bledel)主演的经典美剧《吉尔莫女孩》(位列第 99 位)、吉安卡罗·埃斯波西托(Giancarlo Esposito)极力推崇的以 1600 年代封建日本为背景的史诗剧集《幕府将军》(位列第 86 位),以及英国长青真人秀节目《英国烘焙大赛》(位列第 85 位)。前 20 名剧集榜单将在本周五正式揭晓;栏目同时澄清,经典剧集《黑道家族》因首播于 1999 年而未被纳入本世纪的评选周期。
节目的最后,主播特蕾西·芒福德(Tracy Mumford)向听众征集有关人工智能的各类核心关切。无论是“AI 是否能够入侵银行账户”的技术安全疑虑、“递归自我改进(Recursive Self-Improvement: 人工智能系统自主优化代码、重构算法架构并持续呈指数级迭代能力的机制)”的深层概念,抑或是关于“AI 末日论”的社会恐慌,《纽约时报》一线科技报道记者团队将集中收集问题,并在随后的节目中展开针对性解答。
英文原文
And finally, my colleagues inspired a lot of strong feelings when they rolled out the list of best books of the 21st century. Elena Ferrante's My Brilliant Friend took the top spot. There were even more feelings when they put out the list of the best movies of the century. Parasite took number one. Now they're doing best TV shows. So get your hot takes ready. To pull together this ranking, my colleagues reached out to hundreds of actors, showrunners, and others in the industry to get their opinions. And the list is coming out starting today, counting down from number 100 to 81. The list includes interviews with some of the stars of the shows. >> I started working on Gilmore Girls when I was 18, so I'm very grateful for it. >> You really like my table, don't you? like Alexis Bledell of Gilmore Girls, which squeaked in at 99 on the list. Also, >> when something looks like a movie and takes you on a journey that you've never been to before, it's a show to watch. >> There are industry names talking through their ballots, like John Carlo Esposito of Breaking Bad and Better Call Saul, talking up his pick, Shogun, the drama set in 1600's feudal Japan that came in at 86 on the list. There's a dash of reality in there, too. The Great British Baking Show is in this batch today at number 85. Since bake off has taught us all a lot about total failure and what technically makes something an eclair, the first part of the list is up now on the Time site. More rankings will drop every day this week with the top 20 TV shows of the century coming Friday. And before anyone asks why The Sopranos is not on there, it debuted in 1999. Those are the headlines. Before we go, we want to hear from you with your questions about AI. Can AI hack my bank account? What does recursive self-improvement even mean? And why does everyone keep talking about doomsday? Any question is fair game. And we'll have some answers from Times reporters who are covering the technology. So, if you have an AI question, email us at the headlines@ny times.com. I'm Tracy Mumford. We'll be back tomorrow.