序言:一项大胆的实验
这是我制作过的规模最大、最雄心勃勃、也最昂贵的视频,它也将令人感到恐惧。
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This is the biggest, most ambitious, most expensive video I've ever made. And it's also gonna be terrifying.
我们正在将这些巨大的金属重物绑在直升机的腹部,将其飞到几公里高的空中,然后将这些重物投向一座沙堡城市。
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We are strapping these giant metal weights to the belly of that helicopter, flying it up several kilometers in the sky and then dropping these weights, on a sandcastle city.
这确实需要一些运气。
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I mean, we need luck.
(戏剧性的音乐响起)
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(dramatic music)
我们开始吧。
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Here we go.
哦,天哪!
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- Oh my.
是的!
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YEAH!
而这一切都是为了一个非常充分的理由。
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And this is all for a very good reason.
所以,我们开始吧。
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So let's do it. Come on.
“上帝之杖”的构想:冷战时期的太空武器
在1950年代末期,美国面临一个问题。
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In the late 1950s, the United States had a problem.
苏联于1957年10月4日发射了第一颗人造卫星Sputnik(伴侣号:世界上第一颗人造地球卫星)进入地球轨道,但鲜为人知的是,就在一个多月前,他们成功测试了第一枚ICBM(Intercontinental Ballistic Missile: 洲际弹道导弹)。
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The Soviet Union launched the first artificial satellite, Sputnik, into orbit around the earth on the 4th of October, 1957, but less well known is that just over a month earlier, they successfully tested the first intercontinental ballistic missile or ICBM.
它可以在大约30分钟内,将核弹头从苏联投送到美国东海岸的城市。
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It could deliver a nuclear warhead from the Soviet Union to cities on the US East Coast, in around 30 minutes.
面对这一威胁,波音公司(Boeing)的一位名叫Jerry Pournelle(杰里·珀内尔)的研究员提出了一个太空武器的构想。
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Facing this threat, a researcher at Boeing named Jerry Pournelle came up with an idea for a space weapon.
它可以在一半的时间内,即仅仅15分钟内,击中地球上任何位置。
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It could hit any location on Earth in half that time, just 15 minutes.
它能够摧毁地下30米深的目标,例如苏联核武器储存的发射井。
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It could destroy targets buried 30 meters underground like the silos where the Soviet nukes were kept.
理论上,它甚至可以在ICBM(洲际弹道导弹)飞行途中进行拦截。
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And theoretically it could intercept ICBM's mid-flight.
他的概念是将电话杆大小的钨块放入太空轨道。
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His concept was to put telephone pole sized pieces of tungsten in space, in orbit.
这样,这些钨块就可以在任何时候投向目标。
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So that these pieces of tungsten could drop on a target basically at any time.
这个想法是,在15分钟的窗口期内,你将能够释放其中一根钨棒,让它重返大气层并在几分钟内击中目标。
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The idea was within a 15 minute window you would be able to release one of these tungsten rods and have it re-enter the atmosphere and strike a target in minutes.
它会以极快的速度进入大气层,你知道,在轨道上物体大约以每秒八公里的速度运行,当它进入大气层时,会因为大气阻力而减速。
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And it would come in so fast, you know, in orbit things go about eight kilometers per second, and as it enters the atmosphere, it's gonna slow down due to the atmospheric drag,
但即使在撞击时,它的速度仍将达到音速的10倍左右,即Mach 10(马赫10:音速的10倍),或大约每秒三公里。
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but still on impact it's still gonna be going like 10 times the speed of sound. Mach 10 or about three kilometers per second.
动能武器的巨大威力与历史沿革
这是MOAB(Massive Ordnance Air Blast: 大型空爆炸弹),但它更常被称为“炸弹之母”(Mother of All Bombs)。
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This is MOAB, which stands for massive ordinance air blast but it's more commonly referred to by its nickname the Mother of All Bombs.
它是地球上最强大的非核爆炸物之一。
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It is one of the most powerful non-nuclear explosives on the planet.
当它引爆时,释放出相当于11吨TNT的能量。
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When it detonated, it released the equivalent of 11 tons of TNT.
现在,仅仅一根这样的钨棒坠落,其能量就相当于有史以来引爆的最大常规炸药。
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Now, just one of these tungsten rods coming in would have the same energy as the largest conventional explosive ever detonated.
它们不是炸弹,不含任何爆炸物,但由于它们极重且速度极快,所携带的动能(Kinetic Energy: 物体因运动而具有的能量)巨大,其威力与任何曾引爆的常规炸弹一样大。
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They are not bombs, they contain no explosives but the amount of energy that they're carrying in their kinetic energy because they are so heavy and they're going so fast it is as big as any conventional bomb ever detonated.
Pournelle将他的武器命名为“Project Thor”(雷神计划),以北欧神话中投掷闪电的雷神命名。
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Pournelle called his weapon Project Thor after the Norse God who threw lightning bolts from the heavens.
在1980年代,Reagan(里根)政府曾认真考虑过动能导弹拦截器的想法。
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In the 1980s the kinetic missile interceptor idea was seriously considered by the Reagan administration.
它被代号为“Brilliant Pebbles”(“璀璨鹅卵石”:里根“星球大战”计划的一部分,设想部署数千颗小型动能拦截器),但该项目最终被放弃了。
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It was codenamed, Brilliant Pebbles but the project was abandoned.
2003年,美国空军转型计划(Air Force Transformation Plan)重新提出了这一概念,将这种武器称为“Hypervelocity Rod Bundles”(超高速棒束)。
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In 2003 it was resurrected by the Air Force Transformation Plan which referred to this weapon as hypervelocity rod bundles.
但在口语中,这种武器被称为“Rods from God”(上帝之杖)。
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But colloquially, the weapon is known as Rods from God.
一个物体的动能与其质量成正比,与其速度的平方成正比。
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The kinetic energy of an object is directly proportional to its mass and its velocity squared.
所以,将物体的质量增加10倍,其动能也增加10倍。
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So increasing the objects mass 10 times, increases its kinetic energy 10 times.
但如果将速度增加10倍,动能就会增加100倍。
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But if you increase the velocity by a factor of 10 the kinetic energy grows by a factor of a hundred.
这就是为什么即使是非常轻的物体也能携带大量动能的原因。
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This is why even very light objects can carry lots of kinetic energy.
当一块15克的塑料以每秒六公里的速度撞击铝块时,就会造成这样的效果。
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This is what a 15 gram piece of plastic does to a block of aluminum when traveling at six kilometers per second.
这对卫星来说是一个真正的问题,因为在轨道上巨大的速度下,微陨石、小螺栓,甚至是油漆碎屑,都对国际空间站(International Space Station)上的宇航员构成严重风险。
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And this is a real problem for satellites because of the massive speeds on orbit, micro meteorites, small bolts, or even flecks of paint are serious risks for the astronauts living onboard the International Space Station.
国际空间站窗户上的这个缺口就是由一粒微小的灰尘造成的。
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This chip in the window of the ISS was caused by a tiny speck of dust.
一小块太空垃圾刺穿了机械臂上的一个洞。
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And a small piece of space junk punctured a hole in the robotic arm.
想象一下一个重达10吨的物体以如此快的速度飞行。
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Imagine something that weighs 10 tons traveling that fast.
动能武器出现在科幻小说中,包括数十部电影、电子游戏和书籍。
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Kinetic energy weapons appear in fiction including dozens of movies, video games and books.
但它们有多真实呢?
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But how realistic are they?
我的意思是,这种武器真的能成为现实吗?
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I mean, could this weapon ever become a reality?
模拟实验:瞄准的巨大挑战
这就是我们来到沙漠中央的原因。
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Well, that's why we're here in the middle of the desert.
我们想看看“上帝之杖”的破坏力有多大。
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We wanna see how damaging a Rod from God could be.
我们真的竭尽全力,甚至雇佣了一支专业的沙堡建造团队,来建造一座城市,我们将把这些“杖”投向它。
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And we really pulled out all the stops, even hiring a team of professional sandcastle builders to construct a city onto which we'll drop the rods.
我对这些沙堡建造者充满了敬意。
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I have all the respect in the world, for these sandcastle builders.
我们是七届美国公开赛沙堡冠军。
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- We are seven time US Open Sand Castle Champions.
那太酷了。
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- That's so cool.
它将经受住最高重量、最高落差的考验,而且几乎不会受到损坏。
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It'll endure the test of the highest weight at the highest drop with very little damage.
我对此深信不疑。
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I'm really convinced of that.
美国国会大厦很棒。
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- The US Capital was great.
是啊,是不是很棒?
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- Yeah, isn't that great?
是啊。
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- Yeah.
这是我们最喜欢的之一。
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- It's one of our favorite.
我喜欢那里的所有建筑。
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- I love all the buildings there.
谁做的那个腌黄瓜?
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Who did the pickle?
小黄瓜?
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The Gherkin?
是的,就是这里的小黄瓜。
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- Yeah, the Gherkin right here.
非常棒。
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- Very nice.
这太美了。
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This is beautiful.
我的意思是,我都不好意思去击打它。
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I mean, I feel bad for trying to hit it.
我非常担心瞄准问题,这座城市并不大。
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I am just very concerned about aiming, the city is not that big.
所以在我们进行那次投放之前,我们将尝试用一个100公斤或220磅的重物击中这个游泳池。
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So before we get to that drop we're gonna try to hit this swimming pool with a 100 kilogram or a 220 pound mass.
大概会上升到500米左右。
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Probably go up about 500 meters.
尝试将重物直接投到这个泳池里。
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Try to drop a weight right into this pool.
我不认为它会成功。
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I don't think it's gonna work.
我不认为我们会击中它。
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I don't think we're gonna hit it.
事实上,我一整天最担心的是我们根本无法击中任何东西。
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In fact, my main concern for the whole day is that we're just not gonna be able to hit anything.
那么我们一开始来这里的意义何在呢?
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And then what was the point in coming out here in the first place?
这些将是我问自己的问题。
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These are gonna be the questions that I ask myself.
我们瞄准的方式是使用全球定位系统(GPS),我们将从泳池中心获取一个GPS标记。
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So the way we're targeting is with GPS, we're gonna take a GPS mark from like the center of the pool.
哦,天哪。
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Oh boy.
直升机上也有GPS。
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We've also got GPS in the helicopter.
我们将用它来尝试对准泳池的中心。
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We're gonna use that to try to line up square over the middle of the pool.
所以如果我们能从500米高空击中这个泳池,那么我认为我们就有机会了。
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So if we're able to hit this pool from 500 meters then I think we've got a shot.
(戏剧性的音乐响起)
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(dramatic music)
你的GPS在哪里?
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- Where's your GPS?
我的GPS是我的手机。
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- My GPS is my phone.
我把坐标写在手臂上。
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And I have the coordinates written on my arm.
我们准备好了。
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We're ready to go.
我们是专业的。
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We're professionals
第一次投放,我得说感觉很不稳定。
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- First drop and it's feeling shaky I gotta tell you.
我很惊讶它能拉动那么重的负载!
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I'm surprised it can pull a load that heavy!
我们还有700英尺才能达到1500英尺。
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- We've got another 700 feet to be at 1500.
好的。
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- Okay.
我只是不知道他们为什么要飞那么高。
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- I just dunno like why they're circling up that high.
那是500米吗?
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Is that 500 meters?
看起来真的很高。
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That seems really high.
Ryan呼叫Rick,你的高度是多少?
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- Ryan to Rick, what's your altitude?
500米。
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- 500 meters.
我们是1500英尺,那看起来比1500英尺高。
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- We're 1500 feet, that seems higher than 1500 feet.
他们现在在500米高空。
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- They're at 500 meters right now.
那真是太疯狂了,好的。
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- That is freaking crazy, okay.
来了。
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- Here we go.
就是这个。
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This is the one.
就是这个。
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- This is the one.
它在上面疯狂地摇摆!
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- It's swinging around like crazy up there!
是啊。
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- Yeah.
它有鳍吗?
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Does it have fins on it?
天哪。
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- Jesus.
没有。
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No.
没有鳍。
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No fins.
我们为什么不早一周讨论这个问题呢?
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Why didn't we have this conversation a week ago?
看起来不错?
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- Looking good?
我们左右都很好。
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- We're good left to right.
那很好。
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That's good.
我们只需要往前走。
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We just need to go forward.
哦,天哪。
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- Oh geez.
那看起来不像是在位置上,对吧?
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That does not look like they're in position, right?
你在开玩笑吗?
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Are you kidding me?
它永远不会。
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- It never will.
它掉了。
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- Its dropped.
哦,天哪。
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- Oh my.
那会击中什么?
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What the? What is that gonna hit?
哦,它正在侧向移动。
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Oh, it is going sideways.
它击中了什么?
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What did it hit?
远远超过沙堡了。
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- Way past the sandcastle.
哦,天哪。
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- Oh geez.
那比我想象的偏离得更多。
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That was way more off than I thought.
哦,我的天哪。
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- Oh my God.
我完全是对的。
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- I was right on.
你的显示也是一样的吗?
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Was yours showing the same thing back there?
是的,我们完全是对的。
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- Yeah, we were right on it.
是的。
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- Yeah.
很好。
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Good.
那有点奇怪。
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Well that's kinda weird.
这只是告诉你,在高空会发生什么。
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That's just gonna show you what's gonna happen at altitude.
我们都说我们完全是对的,但我们没有。
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We both said we were right on it and we weren't.
它看起来不像你们在移动,但是……
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- It didn't look like you guys were moving, but...
是的,他告诉我我们的水平速度是零。
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- Yeah he's telling me our horizontal velocity was zero.
而且你在正确的位置?
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- And you were in the right spot?
我们完全在正确的位置。
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- We were exactly in the right spot.
哦,哇。
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- Oh wow.
哦,哇!
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Oh wow!
看那个。
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Look at that.
哦,哇。
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- Oh Wow.
完全,完全埋进去了。
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Totally, totally buried.
从500米高空坠落,这根杆子加速了10秒。
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Falling from 500 meters, the rod accelerated for 10 seconds.
即使考虑到空气阻力,它撞击地面时的速度也达到了每小时350公里。
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And even accounting for air resistance it hit the ground going about 350 kilometers per hour.
以那个速度,加上100公斤的质量,它携带了近50万焦耳的动能。
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At that speed, with a mass of a hundred kilograms it was carrying nearly half a million joules of kinetic energy.
我们今天的计划是投放一个两倍重、六倍高的物体。
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Our plan for the day is to drop something twice as heavy from six times higher.
那么它撞击时的能量将大于一公斤TNT的爆炸。
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Then it's energy on impact will be greater than the explosion of a kilogram of TNT.
动能撞击是爆炸性的。
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Kinetic impacts are explosive.
如果你仔细观察月球上的陨石坑,你会发现它们基本上都是圆形的。
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If you look at the craters on the moon and you look really closely you're gonna see that they're basically all circles.
我想没有人会停下来问为什么它们是圆形的?
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I think no one stops to ask why are they circular?
如果你想象当月球被小行星撞击时,它们会从各个不同的方向飞来。
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If you imagine when the moon gets hit by asteroids they're gonna come in from all different directions.
那么,难道不应该形成小行星撞击时那种椭圆形吗?
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So shouldn't you get these sort of oblong shapes where the asteroid comes in?
事实是,小行星以如此惊人的速度撞击,以至于它们不是像推开泥土那样形成陨石坑。
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Well, the truth is, the asteroids come in with such incredible speed that it's not like they're pushing dirt out of the way and that's what creates the crater.
不,它们以极快的速度撞击,当它们碰撞时,它们的动能是爆炸性的。
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No, they're coming in so fast that when they collide their kinetic energy is explosive.
它加热地面,将物质变成液体和气体。
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It heats up the ground, turns things into liquid and gas.
它们都变得超级热,并以巨大的爆炸向外喷射。
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They all get super hot and they spray outwards in a giant explosion.
这种爆炸是对称的。
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And this explosion is symmetric.
无论小行星以何种角度或多浅的入射角撞击,它都会径向地向外爆炸,因为它是爆炸性的。
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It doesn't matter which angle or how shallow the asteroid was coming in, it's gonna blow out everything radially because it is explosive.
动能是爆炸性的。
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Kinetic energy is explosive.
对我来说,这真是令人惊讶的事情。
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And I think for me, that's just the really surprising thing.
以Mach 10(马赫10)的速度投下这些杆子,当它们击中目标时,也会产生同样的爆炸,就像它们是有史以来发射的最大常规武器一样。
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It would be the exact same thing with dropping these rods going Mach 10, when they hit a target they're gonna create an explosion as though they are the largest conventional weapon ever launched.
而且由于速度极快,它可以穿透大约30米的土壤,足以摧毁掩体或发射井。
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And because it's going so fast, it can penetrate around 30 meters of soil, enough to bust bunkers or silos.
因此,爆炸更加局部化。
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And the explosion is therefore more localized.
所以它可以用于精确的外科手术式打击。
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So it can be used for precise surgical strikes.
此外,与核武器不同,无需担心放射性尘埃或国际法问题。
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Plus, unlike a nuclear weapon there's no radioactive fallout to worry about or international laws.
这些想法是否违反了任何现行法律或条约?
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Do these ideas contravene any current laws or treaties?
不。
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- No.
唯一关于在太空部署武器的国际协议是关于核武器的。
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The only international agreement there is about putting weapons in space is about nuclear weapons.
唯一的真正禁令是关于在太空部署核武器。
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The only real prohibition is about putting nuclear weapons in space.
天哪,我原以为目标会很难击中。
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- Man, like I thought targets would be hard to hit.
现在我超级确信它们是不可能击中的。
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Now I'm like super convinced they're impossible to hit.
我们现在要做的是,我们将降低高度,并进行目视投放。
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- What we're gonna do now, we're gonna do a much lower altitude and we're gonna do it visually.
是的。
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- Yeah.
太棒了。
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Great.
所以我们将进行300英尺的目视投放。
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- So we're gonna do it, you know, 300 feet visually.
我喜欢这样。
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- I love it.
我们将进行方块投放。
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We're gonna do a cube drop.
方块投放很有趣,因为我当时想我们不应该进行方块投放。
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Cube drop, is interesting cause I was like we shouldn't do a cube drop.
我们在这里谈论的是“上帝之杖”。
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We're here talking about Rods from God.
它们是圆柱体,对吧?
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They're cylinders right?
现在我非常庆幸我们有方块,因为圆柱体,正如Adam Savage(亚当·萨维奇:美国电视节目主持人、特效专家)告诉我的那样,
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Now I'm so thankful we have the cubes because the cylinders, as Adam Savage told me,
如果有足够的机会,圆柱体往往会侧向坠落。
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- Cylinders tend to fall on their sides, given enough chance.
真的吗?
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- Really?
谁会想到呢?
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Who would've thought I would've thought like,
我以为像铅笔那样的东西会倾向于垂直下落。
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you know, a pencil type thing, it would tend to aim straight down.
那看起来还是很高。
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That still looks high.
那是100米吗?
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Does that?
30秒倒计时,他们看起来不在泳池上方。
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30 second call, it doesn't look like they're over the pool.
它完全被风吹得摇摆不定。
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It's totally blowing around in the wind.
它完全在摇摆。
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It's totally swinging.
GPS显示完全正确,我看到它就在下方。
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- GPS is spot on and I see it right below.
仍然感觉很高。
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- Still feels high.
我们就在上面。
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We're on it.
我们就在上面。
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We're on it.
来了。
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- Here we go.
好的。
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- All right.
那没有偏离太远。
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That wasn't far off.
我们偏离了60英尺。
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- We're off by 60 feet.
是的。
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- Yeah.
哦,哇。
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Oh wow.
看起来我们就在它正上方吗?
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Did it look like we were right above it?
看起来是的。
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Looked like it yeah.
哇。
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- Wow.
因为我当时也完全是对的。
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'Cause I still was right on it as well.
那还不错,从100米高空。
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- That's something, from a hundred meters.
我接受了。
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I'll take it.
好的,我们准备投放这个重物。
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Okay, we're setting up to drop this mass.
200公斤,440磅。
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200 kilograms, 440 pounds.
你觉得呢?
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What do you think?
是的,我们会成功的。
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- Yeah, we're gonna get there.
这次我们会击中它吗?
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- Are we gonna hit it this time?
我希望如此。
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I hope so.
这是关键时刻。
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This is the moment of truth.
我们已经错失了两次。
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We've had two misses so far.
所以我们将在泳池上方50米或150英尺处投放,这对我来说相当令人失望。
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So we're going 50 meters or 150 feet above the pool which for me it's pretty disappointing.
但此时此刻,我只想击中某个东西。
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But at this point I just want to hit something.
30秒!
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- 30 seconds!
30秒!
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30 seconds!
哦,天哪。
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- Oh boy.
重物在上面摇摆不定。
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The weight is swinging around on there.
它被风吹得摇摆不定。
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It's getting blown around by the wind.
我的意思是,我们需要运气。
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I mean we need luck.
它来了,它来了,它来了。
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There it goes, there it goes, there it goes.
我正在追踪,追踪。
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I'm tracking, tracking.
击中了泳池!
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Got a hit of the pool!
(尖叫)是的!
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- (screaming) Yes!
(全体工作人员欢呼)
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(crew all cheer)
它击中了什么。
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- It hit something.
是的!
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- Yes!
它就在边缘。
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It was like right on the edge.
就在边缘。
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Right on the edge.
喔!
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- WOO!
今天早上我非常担心我们什么也击不中。
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- This morning I was so worried that we weren't going to hit anything.
而且我觉得录像之所以晃动,是因为我太兴奋了。
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And like I think the footage is so shaky cause I was so excited.
但从上方看到那一幕真是太棒了。
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But like seeing that from above was amazing.
哇。
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- Wow.
它直接穿过了泳池。
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It ripped right through the pool.
太疯狂了。
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- That's crazy.
难以置信。
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- Unbelievable.
哦,看那些橡皮鸭子。
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- Oh, look at the rubber duckies.
那么,下一个目标是沙堡吗?
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- So, is the next target, the sandcastle?
你想从100米高空投放吗?
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And you wanna go for a hundred meters?
我想加倍。
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- I wanna double it.
如果我们真的能从100米高空击中沙堡,那将是惊人的。
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This will be amazing if we can actually hit the sandcastle from a hundred meters.
那将非同寻常。
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That'll be something
钨棒的材料与形状:优化穿透力
在“上帝之杖”的所有不同版本中,这些杆子都是由钨制成的。
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In all the different incarnations of Rods from God.
这有两个原因。
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The rods are made out of tungsten. And there are two reasons for this.
首先,钨非常非常致密。
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The first is that tungsten is really, really dense.
一立方米的钨重达19吨。
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A cubic meter of tungsten weighs 19 tons.
这比我们这里使用的钢的密度高出两倍多,我们使用钢只是因为它便宜得多。
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That's over twice the density of steel which is what we're using here just because it's a lot cheaper.
但这意味著在给定质量的情况下,钨棒的体积可以不到钢的一半,因此在穿过大气层时遇到的阻力更小。
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But that means for a given amount of mass tungsten rods could be less than half the volume of steel and therefore encounter less resistance as they pass through the atmosphere.
更重要的是,对于再入大气层,钨还具有极高的熔点。
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And importantly for re-entry, tungsten also has an incredibly high melting point.
它是所有金属中最高的,接近三千五百摄氏度。
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The highest of any metal, at almost three and a half thousand degrees celsius.
这很重要,因为当杆子在大气层中减速时,周围会积聚大量热量。
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This is important because as the rod decelerates through the atmosphere a lot of heat builds up all around it.
而钨的高熔点意味著这些杆子需要更少的防护,以防止它们熔化。
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And tungsten's high melting point means the rods require much less shielding to prevent them from melting.
形状也很重要。
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The shape is also important.
目标是以尽可能快的速度击中目标。
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The goal is to hit the target with as much speed as possible.
所以,流线型的空气动力学形状是最好的,而杆状是很好的形状。
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So a sleek, aerodynamic shape is best and rods are a great shape for that.
空气动力学是箭、子弹和弹道导弹看起来像它们现在这样的原因。
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Aerodynamics is why arrows and bullets and ballistic missiles all look the way they do.
这是为了最大限度地减少阻力。
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It's to minimize drag.
老实说,我们犯的一个大错误是没有在我们的杆子上焊接鳍。
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Honestly one of the big mistakes we made was not welding fins onto our rods.
我们将在投放前上升到大约100米或300英尺的高度。
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We're going up to about a hundred meters or 300 feet, before we drop.
我们的目标是击中沙堡城市。
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We're gonna hit the sandcastle city. That's the goal.
随时,任何一秒。
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- Any minute, any second.
它来了,它来了,它来了。
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- There it goes, there it goes, there it goes.
它正在下落。
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It's going.
它击中前面了吗?
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Did it hit in front?
就在前面。
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- Just in font.
击中就在前面。
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Hit just in front.
我们只是错过了。
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- We just missed it.
我们很接近。
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We were close.
我们真的非常接近。
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We were really close.
所以拖拉机现在要去挖出重物。
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So the tractor's gonna dig the weight out right now.
是的。
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- Yeah.
把它捡起来。
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Just pick it up.
它就是这样落地的。
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- That's how it landed.
差点就摧毁了国会大厦。
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So close to taking out the capital.
是的。
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- Yeah.
看那个。
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Look at that.
30秒倒计时。
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- 30 seconds to drop.
啊,那风。
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- Ah, that wind.
20秒。
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- 20 seconds.
20秒。
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20 seconds.
那风太猛烈了。
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That wind is brutal.
哦,天哪。
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Oh boy.
哦,天哪。
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Oh boy.
哦,天哪。
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Oh boy.
击中了左边什么东西?
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Hit something on the left?
但我不认为那是城市。
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But I don't think it was the city.
看到我们经历的所有挑战,这让我回想起瞄准动能弹丸是多么困难。
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Seeing all the challenges we're going through reminds me just how difficult it is to aim a kinetic projectile.
10秒。
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10 seconds.
三,二,一,投放。
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- Three, two, one , and drop.
它来了。
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- There it goes.
他们击中了一座建筑吗?
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Did they hit a building?
国会大厦还在。
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Capitol's still here.
什么?
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What?
什么?
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- What?
我简直不敢相信。
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- I cannot believe it.
直接击中了建筑物,但只摧毁了那一侧。
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Direct hit on the building, but it only took down that side.
我觉得难以置信,它击中了那里。
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- I find it unbelievable, that it hit right there
看那些裂缝。
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- Look at the cracks.
看后面的裂缝。
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- Look at the cracks in the back
它造成了裂缝,但没有摧毁整个建筑。
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- and like it created cracks but it didn't make the whole
没有摧毁整个建筑。
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didn't destroy the whole building.
如果你想造成大规模破坏,这不是你会使用的东西。
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This is not what you would use if you wanted to cause mass devastation.
这就像如果你想精确打击一个目标。
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This is like if you wanted to pinpoint a target.
现在老实说,我们甚至没有在小范围内对“上帝之杖”进行一次公平的测试。
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Now if I'm honest, we did not manage to make a fair test of Rods from God, even on a small scale.
你知道,我想从三公里高空投放200公斤的重物。
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You know I wanted to drop 200 kilograms from three kilometers.
但瞄准太困难了,我们根本没有接近那个目标。
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But aiming was so hard that we got nowhere near that.
所以我们没有看到动能的爆炸力。
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So we didn't get to see the explosive power of kinetic energy.
当我们最后一次尝试从500米高空再次投放时。
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When we made one last ditch attempt to drop again from 500 meters.
我只是害怕我们会击中什么东西或某个人。
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I was just terrified that we were gonna hit something or someone.
小心,小心,小心,小心,小心。
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Look out, look out, look out, look out, look out.
哦!
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Oh!
哦!
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Oh!
哇!
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Caw!
我很高兴能安全地结束这一天。
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I was just happy to finish the day with everyone safe.
我没有拍摄那个,因为我太害怕了。
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I didn't shoot that cause I was so terrified.
哦,我看到了。
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Oh, I see it.
哇。
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Wow.
你说得对,它弹出来了。
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You're right that it bounced out.
但考虑到我们在这个视频上花费的时间和金钱,我会说这是我最大的失败。
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But given the amount of time and money we spent on this video I would say it is my biggest failure of all time
事实证明,你也可以用这句话来形容真正的武器“上帝之杖”。
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which as it turns out, is also something you could say about the actual weapon Rods from God.
“上帝之杖”的现实困境与科幻遗产
我的意思是,就从瞄准开始说吧。
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I mean, just start with aiming.
理论上,引导“上帝之杖”是可能的,你可以使用推进器或可调节的鳍,或者改变杆子的质心。
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Steering a Rod from God is in theory possible you could use thrusters or adjustable fins or change the rod's center of mass.
但在实践中,瞄准一个以高超音速飞行的物体是极其困难的。
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But in practice it's incredibly difficult to aim an object traveling at hypersonic speeds.
不仅如此,由于杆子周围被超热等离子体包围,从地面或太空与杆子通信几乎是不可能的。
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Not only that, communicating with the rod from the ground or from space would be nearly impossible due to the superheated plasma surrounding it.
还有其他问题。
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And there are other problems.
你知道,假设你想在15分钟内击中一个目标,你可能会认为最简单的方法是将一根杆子直接放在目标上方的地球静止轨道(Geostationary Orbit: 卫星相对于地球表面保持固定位置的轨道)上。
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You know, say you want to hit a target within 15 minutes you'd think the simplest thing would be to put a rod right above the target in geostationary orbit.
但地球静止轨道距离地球超过35,000公里。
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But geostationary orbit is over 35,000 kilometers away.
这几乎是到月球距离的十分之一。
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That's almost a 10th the distance to the moon.
所以从那里,一根杆子需要几个小时才能落到地球。
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So from there a rod would take several hours to fall to the earth.
如果你把它放在近地轨道(Low Earth Orbit: 距离地球表面200至2000公里范围内的轨道),比如说地球上方约350公里处,杆子将相对于地面移动,每90分钟绕地球一周。
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And if you put it in low earth orbit say around 350 kilometers above the earth the rod will move relative to the ground doing a revolution around the earth every 90 minutes.
因此,从下达打击命令到杆子击中目标,可能需要长达一个半小时。
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So between ordering a strike and the rod hitting the target that could take anywhere up to an hour and a half.
你可能会认为,通过在那个轨道上放置大约10颗卫星,可以将时间缩短到大约30分钟。
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Now you might think that you could get that time down to about 30 minutes by placing say 10 satellites in that orbit.
但请记住,地球会自转,所以轨道会漂移,你实际上需要数百颗卫星才能确保目标附近总有一根杆子。
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But remember, the earth rotates so orbits drift, you would actually need hundreds of satellites to make sure there's always a rod close by the target.
那么,假设你想将一百根杆子送入太空。
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So let's say you want to put a hundred rods into space.
那么发射它们的成本将是数十亿美元。
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Well, the cost of launching them will be billions of dollars.
而且随着时间的推移,推进器会损坏和失灵。
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And over time the thrusters will break down and malfunction.
所以会有持续的维护成本。
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So there are going to be ongoing maintenance costs.
但如果你只想用它来防御导弹呢?
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But what if you just want to use it for missile defense?
那么你就不需要重达10吨的东西,一根小一点的杆子就足够了。
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Well then you don't need something that weighs 10 tons, a smaller rod would do.
但即使那样,也真的非常非常棘手。
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But even then it's really, really tricky.
要成功拦截一枚ICBM(洲际弹道导弹),你必须在助推阶段击中它。
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And to successfully intercept an ICBM, you've gotta hit it during the boost phase,
现代ICBM在助推后会分裂成多个有效载荷,其中一些是诱饵,以压倒反ICBM防御导弹。
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modern ICBMs split into a number of payloads after the boost some of which are decoys to overwhelm anti ICBM defense missiles.
例如,要阻止朝鲜发射ICBM,美国需要在大约八个轨道上部署约400根杆子,才能及时拦截导弹。
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To stop North Korean ICBM launches for example, the US would need around 400 rods spread among eight orbits to be able to intercept missiles in time.
一个全球防御系统至少需要数倍于此的数量。
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A global defense system would require at least a few times that amount.
据计算,即使是一个非常有限的系统也需要大约3000亿美元,这几乎是美国军方年度预算的一半。
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And it's been calculated that even a very limited system would cost around 300 billion dollars, which is nearly half of the US military annual budget.
即使那样也行不通,因为敌人可以通过同时发射多枚导弹来规避防御。
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And even that wouldn't work because enemies could evade the defense by launching several missiles at the same time.
由于在任何时候只有一个杆子在正确的位置,一根杆子可以拦截其中一枚导弹,但其余的会穿过。
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Since there's only one rod in the right location at any time, a rod could intercept one of the missiles but the rest would pass through.
所以“上帝之杖”在现实中被证明是不可行的。
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So Rods from God turns out to be unfeasible to execute in reality.
在波音公司任职后,提出这个想法的Jerry Pournelle成为了一名科幻作家。
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After his stint at Boeing, Jerry Pournelle who came up with the idea, became a science fiction writer.
在他1985年登上《纽约时报》畅销书榜的著作《Footfall》(足迹)中,一个外星种族使用动能武器入侵地球。
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And in his 1985 New York Times bestselling book, Footfall an alien race uses kinetic weapons to invade the earth.
老实说,我很高兴这种武器只在科幻小说中可行。
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And honestly, I'm pretty glad that this weapon is feasible only in science fiction.
📌 文中提及的人物和组织
公司/组织: Boeing, Soviet Union, US Air Force
媒体/书籍: Footfall