阿拉斯加的住房之谜
Joe: 大家好,欢迎收听新一期的Odd Lots(一档探讨经济和金融话题的播客)播客。我是Joe Weisenthal。
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Hello and welcome to another episode of the OddLotss podcast. I'm Joe Weisenthal
Tracy: 我是Tracy Alloway。
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and I'm Tracy Aloway.
Joe: Tracy,我理解为什么像纽约市这样的城市,住房会非常昂贵,建设也非常困难。我的意思是,纽约市的空间确实不多,对吧?我真的不怪纽约市没有建造大量新住房,毕竟你到底能把它们建在哪里呢?
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So Tracy, I get why like a city like New York City, it's housing is really expensive. It's really difficult to build. I mean, there's not a lot of space, right, in New York City. Like, I don't really blame New York City for not building a lot of new housing. Like, where would you put it exactly?
Tracy: 没错。曼哈顿是个岛屿,看起来空间有限。此外,它还有一个巨大的公园占据了很大一部分面积。所以,情况就是这样。
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Right. Manhattan is an island. Seems somewhat limited. Plus, it has a giant park taking up a good chunk of it. So, there's that.
Joe: 而且看起来邻避主义者(NIMBY: Not In My Backyard,指反对在自家附近建设不受欢迎设施的居民)们正在阻止我们在中央公园开发。但是,是的,我多少能理解为什么纽约市的住房如此紧张,我真的不怪任何人。然而,在那些更偏远的地区,尤其是在人口没有大量增长的地方,建造更多的房屋或者利用人们搬走后留下的房屋,应该会非常容易。但根据我们过去的旅行等经验,农村地区的住房也面临着很大的压力。
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And it seems nimbies are keeping it so that we can't develop on Central Park. But, yeah, like I sort of get why housing is really strained in New York City. I don't blame anyone really for it. But it always seems like in the more rural locations, especially where there's not a lot of population growth. It should be really easy to, you know, just build more houses or, you know, use the houses that people left when they moved. And yet, our impression is from past trips, etc., that there's a lot of strain on rural housing as well.
Tracy: 没错。我们曾去北卡罗来纳州等地进行过几次实地考察,了解到即使在人口密度远不及曼哈顿的地区,也存在住房问题。现在我们来到了阿拉斯加,你知道,如果我对阿拉斯加有什么了解的话,那就是它非常大。
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That's right. So, we've done a few field trips to places like North Carolina, and we learned that even in an area that certainly is not as densely populated as Manhattan, there are housing issues. And now we are up here in Alaska, which, you know, if there's one thing I know about Alaska, it's that it is big.
Joe: 它很大,是的。
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It's big. Yeah.
Tracy: 差不多是德克萨斯州的两倍大。这是人们常说的统计数据吗?
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Like twice the size of Texas. Is that the stat that people
Joe: 差不多吧。令人难以置信。差不多是这样。肯定有一些空地可以建房子,
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Something like that. It's incredible. Something like that. There's got to be some empty space to build houses,
Tracy: 你会这么想,对吧?然而我们在这里,人们反复谈论的一件事就是阿拉斯加州内,包括我们现在所在的安克雷奇市,都面临着住房紧张的问题。
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you would think, right? And yet we're up here and one of the things that people keep talking about over and over again is this idea of housing strains within Alaska in Anchorage too, which is where we are right now.
Joe: 是的,完全正确。我们已经多次听到这个问题了。所以,无论我们讲述曼哈顿的故事时,问题是什么,肯定还有更深层的原因,因为它不仅仅是没有空间的问题,因为即使在空间充裕的地方也存在住房紧张。所以我想了解那到底是什么原因。我们一直在阿拉斯加。听众们会记得我们与Mary Daly的那一期节目,也许还有其他一些节目会在本期节目播出时发布,但是如果不了解一个州的住房经济,就无法真正了解这个州。
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Yeah, totally. And we have heard that multiple times. And so whatever the issue is that sort of the story that we tell about Manhattan, there must be something more to it because it's not just a matter of no space because even places that are swimming in space have strains. And so I want to understand what that is. We've been up in Alaska. Listeners will remember our episode we did with Mary Daly and maybe some other ones that came out by the time this episode is coming out, but there's no uh there's no way to understand a state without understanding its housing economy.
Tracy: 绝对不是。而且,仅仅因为是阿拉斯加,我真正感兴趣的另一件事,而且我认为作为一名相对新的房主,你可能也会感兴趣,那就是阿拉斯加房屋的维护问题。那一定很疯狂,对吧?想象一下,在一个每年降雪量达到几英尺的地方,你得多频繁地更换屋顶。
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Absolutely not. And also just because it's Alaska, the other thing I'm really interested in, and I think you might be interested in it, too, as a relatively new homeowner is just the idea of maintenance on a house in Alaska. It must be insane, right? Like imagine how often you're replacing a roof in a place like that gets like you know feet and feet and feet of snowfall every year.
Joe: 是的,完全正确。好的,我们确实请到了最合适的嘉宾。我们现在在阿拉斯加住房金融公司(Alaska Housing Finance Corporation: AHFC,负责解决阿拉斯加安全、优质、可负担住房问题的州级机构)。我们将与研究和农村发展部主任Jimmy Orr以及规划和项目发展部主任Daniel Delfino进行对话。Jimmy和Daniel,非常感谢你们来到Odd Lots。
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No, totally. All right. Well, we do in fact have the perfect guests. We are at the Alaska Housing Finance Corporation. We are going to be speaking with Jimmy Or. He is the director of research and rural development as well as Daniel Delfino, director of planning and program development. So, uh Jimmy and Daniel, thank you so much for uh coming on OddLots.
阿拉斯加住房金融公司:使命与结构
Daniel: 哦,谢谢你们。我是Daniel。很高兴来到这里。我们很感谢能受邀与你们这个高水平的团队交流。
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Oh, thank you. This is Daniel. It's nice to be here. We appreciate the invitation to chat with your highly sophisticated group.
Jimmy: 我是Jimmy。很高兴来到这里。
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This is Jimmy. Happy to be here.
Joe: 好的,感谢两位邀请我们到你们办公室。能否向听众介绍一下你们的工作,以及阿拉斯加住房金融公司是做什么的?
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Well, thank you both for having us at your office. What do you just for listeners tell us what do you do and what is the Alaska Housing Finance Corporation?
Jimmy: 我是Jimmy,来自阿拉斯加住房金融公司。我们是一个致力于解决阿拉斯加安全、优质、可负担住房问题的组织。这是我们的使命。在90年代初,阿拉斯加州将不同的住房部门和住房金融机构整合到一个机构之下。所以在许多其他州,你可能会有一个住房部门隶属于商务部、税务局或州政府的其他职能部门,而我们则可以穿过走廊,与抵押贷款部门、金融部门或公共住房部门的同事交流。因此,我们是一个涵盖阿拉斯加州所有住房事务的组织,这确实有助于合作并推出各种项目和服务。
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Alaska and Finance Corporation. This is Jimmy. We are an organization that addresses safe quality affordable housing in Alaska. That's that's our mission. In the early 90s, the state of Alaska, they took the different housing departments and the housing finance agency and they put them under one roof. So in many other states you can have a housing department maybe in the department of commerce or under revenue or under some other function of the state where we get to walk across the hall and talk to our counterparts in the mortgage department or the finance department public housing division. So, we're an organization that is all things housing in the state of Alaska, and that's really helped with collaboration and getting programs and services out the door.
阿拉斯加的住房挑战:复杂性与多重因素
Tracy: Joe和我在开场白中稍微提了一下,但能否请你为我们具体介绍一下阿拉斯加州实际的住房问题是什么?你会如何描述你们正在努力解决的一些问题?
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So, Joe and I tried to do this in the intro a little bit, but why don't you contextualize for us what are the actual housing issues in the state of Alaska? How would you describe some of the problems that you're trying to solve?
Daniel: 问题很多,正如你之前所说,要深入细节。我2008年刚开始工作时,住房问题要简单得多。这就像代数题,你学的数学越多,问题就越复杂。
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So, there are a lot you said earlier, go into the details. The housing issues used to be a lot simpler uh when I started in 2008. It's kind of like the algebra problems that evolve the more math you take.
Daniel: 你解C的时候,只处理一个未知变量,可以很简单地通过三角测量法解决。然后,问题就变成了,现在你有两个未知变量,你需要使用代换法。再后来,你面临三四个未知变量,突然之间你就得开始使用线性方程组了。问题变得如此复杂,以至于你需要一台电脑。这就是我们目前在阿拉斯加州面临的问题。有些地方正面临人口流失(population drain: 指一个地区人口持续减少的现象)。有些地方正面临承包商老龄化(aging contracting base: 指建筑承包商队伍中退休人员增多,缺乏新人补充的现象)的问题,人们退休了,却没有新人接替。还有一些社区正在为住房开发成本而苦恼。我的意思是,你在开场白中提到了住房成本。有很多因素导致住房成本高企和住房挑战。我猜我们稍后会深入探讨,但还有住房存量本身的问题。我刚开始工作时,只有公寓、房屋和酒店。现在,由于许多社区度假租赁(vacation rentals: 指短期出租房屋,通常通过在线平台进行)的兴起,这三者实际上已经联系在一起了,酒店业与住房业密不可分,因为房源全年都具有多功能性。所以,很多事情同时在发生,过去那种能够专注于一两个问题,并试图理解它们如何影响整个住房市场的日子已经一去不复返了。我们现在面临着一个非常复杂的局面,这很难概念化,甚至更难向那些不深入了解这些问题的人解释。
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You solve for C and you're only dealing with one unknown variable and you're able to triangulate that and solve it pretty simply. And then it's like, okay, now you have two unknown variables and you use the substitution rule. And now you get up to three or four unknown variables and all of a sudden you have to start using linear equations. And it's just gets to this level of complexity where you need a computer. And that's kind of what we're dealing with in terms of the the issues as they they've kind of emerged over the state. We have some places that are dealing with population drain. We have some places that are dealing with an aging contracting base where the people are retiring and there's no new people coming up behind them. We have other communities that are struggling with the cost of housing development. I mean, you mentioned the cost of housing in the intro. It's um there are a lot of things that drive housing costs and housing challenges. I'm guessing we'll get into here, but then you have the housing stock itself. When I started, it used to be you had apartments, you had houses, and you had hotels. Now the three things are effectively linked thanks to the emergence of vacation rentals in a lot of our communities where the hospitality industry is now inextricably linked to the the housing industry because you have inventory that is taking a multi-purpose nature uh throughout the year. So there are a lot of things moving all at once and the old days of being able to focus on one or two issues and try and understand how it's affecting the housing market at large, those are largely gone and we're we're left in this layer of complexity that's very difficult to conceptualize and even harder to communicate to other people that don't live and breathe this stuff.
广袤阿拉斯加的物流与极端气候挑战
Jimmy: Daniel,我想补充一点,确保大家理解阿拉斯加州的广阔。就像你在开场白中提到的,想象一下这样一个州:你可以坐飞机向西飞3小时,却仍然在阿拉斯加境内。所以,这个州有很多地方会因为地理位置和社区的不同而千差万别。在阿拉斯加的农村地区,有些社区只有几十人,但他们仍然需要住房和服务,而确保他们拥有安全、优质、可负担住房的成本将是极高的。因此,他们必须确保所建造的房屋适合当地的空间和气候。现在,如果你从阿拉斯加东南部出发,想前往北坡(North Slope: 阿拉斯加北部的一个广阔地区,以其极端气候和石油储备闻名),你将离开一个潮湿的热带雨林海洋气候区,前往位于乌恰维克(Ukavic: 阿拉斯加北坡的一个城市,原名巴罗,是美国最北端的城市)地区的北坡,你会看到从零下50华氏度到零上50、60华氏度的极端温度变化。所以,这是一个非常独特的州,当你考虑那里的住房问题时,没有一劳永逸的“万能药”。
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And adding to that, Daniel, I just want to make sure folks understand the vastness of the state of Alaska. Like you talked about there in the introduction, imagine a state where you can get on a plane and fly 3 hours west and still be in Alaska. Okay, so there's so much in this state that is going to be varied because of the location and the community. And you have communities in rural Alaska that have several dozen people in them and they still need housing and services and the cost to make sure that they have safe quality affordable housing is going to be extreme. So they have to ensure that the housing that they're building is appropriate for that space and climate. Now, if you were going to start in Southeast Alaska and you wanted to travel to the North Slope, you're going to leave a wet rainforest, marine climate, and you're going to head to the North Slope, which is up in Ukavic area, and you're going to see extreme temperature changes from 50 below zero to, you know, to 50 60° Fahrenheit above of freezing, you know, so it's it's quite a state and when you're thinking of housing in that space, it's not a magic silver bullet.
Daniel: 从阿拉斯加东南部到乌恰维克的旅程中,你会发现一件事:如果你抛硬币,大概有一半你在网上找到的商家(你可能在亚马逊上觉得理所当然的那些)不会向阿拉斯加发货。所以,当你谈到一些住房挑战时,并非所有人都愿意在阿拉斯加做生意,而那些愿意做的往往会向我们收取敲诈性价格(gouging prices: 指收取过高或不合理的价格)才能把东西运到这里。Jimmy提到了坐飞机三小时到阿拉斯加西部的一个社区。我们去年为了一个董事会会议就这么做了。当你到达那个地方,沿着跑道滑行时,你会看到跑道旁边有一架飞机。那是一架坏了的飞机,就一直停在那里。港口里有些东西已经生锈了,因为它们不会被运走。我的意思是,有些事情人们习以为常,比如航运服务,你可以获得新的零件,也可以运走社区里破旧的东西,但这对于我们在这个州合作的许多人来说并非现实。我们的许多邻居,尤其是在公路系统(road system: 指连接主要城镇的公路网络,许多偏远社区不在此系统内)之外的地区(这占我们社区的大多数),都没有许多人习以为常的东西。
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One of the things that you'll find as you go on this journey from Southeast Alaska up to Ukyavic is if you flip a coin, probably about half of the merchants that you find online that you may take for granted on Amazon won't ship to you in Alaska. So when you talked about some of the housing challenges, people don't all do business in Alaska, and those that do tend to charge us gouging prices to get things up here. Jimmy mentioned uh flying three hours to western Alaska to get to one of the communities. We did that last year for a board meeting. And when you get to that place, when you go down the runway, you see a plane off to the side of the runway. And it's a plane that broke down that just stayed there. There are things in that harbor that have rusted out because they don't they don't come out and pick them up. I mean, there are certain things that people take for granted like uh shipping services that you're going to be able to get new parts in. and you're going to be able to take things away that are dilapitated in your community that aren't a reality for a lot of the people that we work with in this state. A lot of our our neighbors, especially in the places off the road system, which is the majority of our communities, don't have a lot of the things that most people take for granted.
安克雷奇的住房挑战:成本与土地
Joe: 所以,我从未去过那里,我只能想象在这些极端偏远的地方进行商业和住房等活动会有多么奇怪和困难。不过,我们还是先从相对主要的城市中心开始谈起吧。我们现在在安克雷奇,这是州内最大的城市。过去几年里,这里的住房可负担性方面发生了什么变化?建筑方面又发生了什么?
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So, never having been there, I can only imagine the sort of weirdness and difficulties of trying to, you know, commerce and housing, etc. in some of these extreme far-flung locations. Let's just start though with like the relatively major urban centers. You know, we're in Anchorage right now, the biggest city in the state. Like what's happened on the affordability front here and what's happened on the construction front here over the last several years?
Daniel: 好的,我来回答这个问题。在可负担性方面,我们看到了市场出现了两极分化(bifurcation: 指市场或经济体系中出现明显的分裂或分叉)。几年前,那些想再融资的人的利率低至2%左右,房主市场一片繁荣,低利率时期的房价也反映了这一点,房价成本出现了巨大的加速上涨。快进到现在,利率不再是2%,我今天早上查了一下,我们网站上为首次购房者公布的利率是6.2%。
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Sure. So, I'll take a shot at this one. On affordability, we've seen a a bifurcation in the market. The interest rates a couple of years ago were down in the twos for people that wanted to refinance and the homeowner market was going gang busters and the prices when interest rates were low reflected that there was a huge price acceleration in the cost of homes. Uh fast forward to now instead of a 2% interest rate I think our rate that we published for first-time home buyers on our website checked it this morning at 6.2%.
Daniel: 所以几年前,情况要便宜得多。对于租房者来说也是一样,租金更便宜。这只是增长率的问题。当我说线条以不同的角度上升时,安克雷奇的房主成本在过去几年里上涨了60%以上,而租房者则上涨了近30%。所以,两者的情况都很糟糕,只是其中一个的曲线陡峭得多。因此,我们看到很多人在今天的利率下无法再次购买自己的房屋,这影响了他们出售房屋的意愿,因为他们无法以当前的利率在另一个社区甚至在同一个社区购买新房。所以,现在有些人可能被困在或不那么愿意搬离那些现在非常昂贵的房屋。租房者也没有人腾出房屋所有权存量。所以那里变得有点拥挤,很多事情都在发展中,我们看到建筑行业出现了通货膨胀的混乱,没有人再愿意签订最高限价合同(guaranteed maximum price contract: 一种建筑合同,承包商承诺项目成本不会超过某个预设上限),一切都变成了材料成本加时间。我们看到的那些年复一年,比如20%到30%的成本上涨,这种疯狂似乎已经平息了。别误会,它仍然很贵,但已经有所缓和。没有改变的是土地的可用性。我的意思是,你环顾四周,你会看到,“哇,你真大。”你看,我们总是吹嘘,我们是德克萨斯州的两倍大。为什么不能到处建房呢?嗯,这里的土地并不是最容易建造的。比如,你看到一座小山,它可能会被认为是联邦湿地(federal wetland: 受美国联邦法律保护的湿地,开发受到严格限制),因为山坡上可能有一种特定的植物,或者这座山归联邦政府或其他实体所有。所以,你看到的和可供开发的之间可能存在脱节。安克雷奇是我们较老的社区之一,所以它已经开发了很多,好的和容易开发的土地已经被优先占用。安克雷奇之外还有其他地方可以建造,我们确实看到它在主要社区之外蔓延得更多一些,但对于已经开发了二三十年的社区来说,它们正开始进入更成熟的阶段,面临着开发剩余土地的更大困难。
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So a couple of years ago things were much cheaper. Same thing for renters cheaper for renters. It's just the growth rates. When I'm talking about the lines going up at different angles, homeowners in Anchorage, the cost has gone up by over 60% in the last couple of years versus close to 30% for renters. So, both have it bad. It's just one one has a much steeper curve. So what we're seeing is a lot of folks could not afford to buy their own home again at today's interest rates and that's affecting their willingness to sell them because they can't afford to buy something new in another community or even within the same community at the interest rates that they charge. So you have folks that are maybe stuck or uh less mobile in homes that are really expensive now. You have renters that don't have people freeing up a home ownership sock. So it's getting a little bit more congested there and a lot of things are moving in terms of the development, the inflation chaos that we were seeing in the construction industry where no one would do guaranteed maximum price contract anymore and it was all time of materials. Some of that craziness in terms of the escalations that we were seeing year-over-year like 20 30%. That seems to have died down. It's still expensive, don't get me wrong, but that's moderated a little bit. What hasn't changed is the availability of land. I mean, you look around and you see, "Wow, you're huge." You see, we brag all the time, we're twice as big as Texas. Why can't you build housing everywhere? Well, the land here isn't the easiest to build on. Like, you can look at a hill and it will be considered a federal wetland because there will be a specific type of plant that's on the side of the hill or the hill is owned by the federal government or some other entity. So, what you see versus what's available to develop, there can be a disconnect in some communities. And Anchorage is one of our older communities, so it's been built out with a lot of the easy and the good land taken first. There are other places to build outside of Anchorage, and we do see that sprawling a little bit more outside of the main community, but for the communities that have been developing for 20 or 30 years, they're starting to reach the more mature stage where they're running into the harder things to develop, uh, given what's left.
人口流动与度假租赁的影响
Joe: 是的。所以Daniel,我听你说的意思是,在很多方面,安克雷奇与全国其他大社区有些相似,它们都面临着建筑成本、劳动力短缺的问题,
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Yeah. So what I hear you saying, Daniel, is that in many ways Anchorage is somewhat similar to other larger communities throughout the country where they're facing cost of construction, labor shortages,
Daniel: 还有锁定效应(lock-in effect: 指人们由于高昂的交易成本或不便而难以改变现有选择或状态的现象)。
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the lock in effect.
Joe: 是的。但我仍然更喜欢住在这里。好的,我知道阿拉斯加,特别是安克雷奇,有一个不寻常的特点,那就是人口周转率(population turnover: 指一个地区在一定时期内人口的迁入和迁出量)很高,对吧?每年都有很多人离开,也有很多人进来,总的来说,我认为整个州的人口略有下降,也许安克雷奇本身不是这样,你得纠正我,但整个州的人口肯定有所下降。人口的这种周转以及总人数下降的观念,是如何影响住房状况的?
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Yeah. But I'd still prefer to live here. Okay, one thing that I know is unusual about Alaska and Anchorage specifically is that you have a large turnover of the population, right? You have a lot of people who are leaving every year and you have a lot of people who are coming in and on the whole you have seen I think a slight maybe not for Anchorage per se you'll have to correct me but there's been an overall population decline in the state for sure. How does that turnover in the population and the idea that you know for the most part you have seen a decline in total numbers how does that feed into the housing situation?
Daniel: 并非你想象的那样。
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Not the way that you might think.
Daniel: 好的。2010年,我刚开始工作后不久,我们正在安克雷奇讨论一项住房计划。当时有预测称,安克雷奇的人口将无限增长。我们将迎来大量人口。六年之后,人口达到顶峰,然后开始下降。所以我当时想,好的,我们在2016年达到顶峰,然后开始下降,到2020年、2021年左右达到一个基数,然后又开始回升。所以,在最近一次记录的人口年份中,我们现在比2016年大约多了2000人。
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Okay. So in 2010, shortly after I started, we were um talking about a housing plan here in Anchorage. And there were projections that Anchorage was going to grow as far as the I could see. We were going to have all these people coming in. 6 years later, the population peaked and then it started falling. So I was like, okay, we peaked in 2016 and then we started going down to a base around 2020, 2021, and then we started coming back up. So, we have about 2,000 more people now uh in the last recorded population year than we did in 2016.
Daniel: 好的,空置率上升了,当我们看到人们离开时,你会期望,好的,空置率(vacancy rate: 指某一时期内未被占用或出租的房屋数量占总房屋数量的比例)应该会上升,对吧?
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Well, the vacancies have gone up and it's when we see that people leave, you would expect, okay, the vacancy rate should go up, right?
Joe: 是的。
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Yeah.
Daniel: 但这并没有发生。所以,这就像我之前谈到的一些事情,你过去只有一个或两个变量来解释问题,而现在我们有了某种多用途库存(multi-purpose inventory: 指房屋或空间可以用于多种用途,例如既可作为长期住宅也可作为短期度假租赁)。为什么会这样?是的,这对我来说是一个巨大的问题。
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That's not happening. So, it's like some of the things when I talked earlier about you used to have one variable or two variables explaining things and now we have a sort of multi-purpose inventory. Why is that? Yeah, this to me a huge question.
Daniel: 人们是否正在改变他们的居住安排?我们是否有住房存量?因为我的意思是,如果你从供需角度来看,如果你减少供应,即使需求下降,你也可以通过这样做来获得更低的空置率。我不知道这是否正在发生。我们正在尽力追踪度假租赁数据。我们通过一家公司获取数据,我不想透露公司名称,以防在这里引发商业问题,但我们获得专有报告,追踪全州度假租赁房源的增长情况。我们看到这些房源数量有所增加,自从我们开始追踪的2017年或2018年以来,它们几乎翻了一番。这仅仅是数据集变得完整了,还是真实的增长?我的意思是,这些都是我们正在提出的问题,因为这些都是新问题。如果是真实的增长,而且度假租赁存量确实翻了一番,那么我们现在看到过去几年全州新增了7000套房屋。这是一个很大的数字。如果这只是计算早期年份数据集中未记录的内容,那么我就不知道了。所以,我们看到了很多提供解释的现象,但数据和整个住房领域仍然存在如此多的新问题,以至于我们非常不愿明确地说,是的,就是这个,是的,就是那个。但我们确实看到了一些不合理的事情,因为通常住房是人口的函数。如果人口减少,你可能需要的住房就应该减少。而这与我们在数据中看到的情况不符。
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Are people changing their living arrangements? Do we have housing stock? Because I mean, if you go from the supply and demand, if you reduce the supply, you can you can get back to a tighter vacancy rate by doing that even if the demand is falling. I don't know if that's happening. We're trying to track the vacation rental data as best we can. We go through a company, I don't want to name a company in case that gets me into some commercial issue here, but we get proprietary reports where we track the growth in vacation rental listings across the state. and we see that those have gone up uh they've almost doubled uh since I want to say 2017 2018 when we started tracking them. Is that just the data set being completed or is that legitimate growth? I mean these are questions that we're asking because these are new issues. If it's legitimate growth and the vacation rental stock did actually double and now we're looking at 7,000 units that have come online across the state in the last couple of years. That's a big number. If that's just counting what the data set wasn't recording in the earlier years, then I don't know. So, we're seeing a lot of these things that offer explanations, but there's still such new issues in the data and in housing in general that we're really reluctant to come out forward and say deterministically, yes, it's this, yes, it's that. But we do see things that don't make sense because usually housing is a function of people. If you have less people, you should probably need less housing. And that's not what we're seeing in the data.
Tracy: 所以,Joe,讽刺的是,作为来安克雷奇的一些游客,这是我们的错。
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And so, Joe, it's unironically our fault as some of the visitors coming to Anchorage.
Joe: 不过我们住酒店。
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We stay in a hotel, though.
Tracy: 是的。好吧。但我们这个周末晚些时候可能会去住Airbnb。所以……
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Yeah. Okay. But we might go to an Airbnb later this weekend. So
Joe: 那倒是。
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that's true.
Daniel: 抱歉,几年前全州人口是73.9万,现在是74.1万。
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I'm sorry. It was 739 uh for the state in a couple years ago and now we're at 741.
Joe: 是的。所以……
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Yeah. So
Tracy: 所以多了2000人。
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So 2,000 more people.
Jimmy: 我在90年代末来到阿拉斯加,我觉得那时候的人口数字就是这样。它真的没有太大变化。所以就你所说,Tracy,人们搬到这个州,工作一段时间,然后又搬走。你知道,他们来过,体验了阿拉斯加的野性,然后又继续去做不同的事情。
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I I came to Alaska in the late 90s and I I feel that that was the number back then. It just it just hasn't really changed that much. And so to your point, Tracy, where you have people moving to the state, they work for a period of time and then and then they move out. you know, they they've kind of come, they've experienced the wildness of Alaska and then they're moving on to doing different things.
Jimmy: 是的。我们过去是一个逆周期州(countercyclical state: 指经济活动与全国整体趋势相反的州),也就是说,当美国本土48州(lower 48: 指美国除阿拉斯加和夏威夷之外的48个州)经济不景气时,人们就会来到这里。
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Yeah. And we used to be a counteryclical state in that uh people would come up here when there was a downturn in the lower 48 as we refer to the rest of the country.
Joe: 在过去三四天里,我们听到“美国本土48州”这个词的次数可能比我过去听到的还要多。
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We've probably heard the term lower 48 more in the last three or four days than I had.
Jimmy: 这不是贬义词。它只是一个地理上的区分。
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It's not a pjorative. It's just a geographical distinction.
Joe: 算了。我们就是那儿的人。总之,继续。
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Forget that. That's where we are. Anyway, keep going.
Tracy: 不过没人把阿拉斯加叫做“上面的那个”。
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No one calls Alaska the like upper one though.
Joe: “上面的那个”。第49个州。
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The upper one. The 49th state.
Jimmy: 那听起来有点精英主义。是的。
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That would kind of sound elitist. Yeah.
Joe: 好的。所以,我关于安克雷奇这样的地方的住房存量的另一个问题是,
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Okay. So, my other question in terms of housing stock in a place like Anchorage was just
Tracy: 有多少是通过纯粹的自然损耗(attrition: 指由于磨损、老化或环境因素导致的逐渐减少或损失)而损失的,我想,还有像……
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how much is lost through like sheer attrition I guess and like
Joe: 贬值。
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depreciation
Tracy: 贬值(depreciation: 指资产价值因磨损、老化或市场因素而下降)。我大概可以从两个方面来论证这个问题。一方面,由于这里的建筑成本如此之高,如果你有一栋房子,即使它正在老化和破旧,你可能也想保留它,并尝试修缮和维护它。但另一方面,仅仅看看这里的环境,看看天气,你们的住房存量肯定在迅速、迅速地贬值。
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depreciation. And I could kind of I could see arguing this both ways. So, on the one hand, because construction costs are so high here, if you have a house, even if it's aging and falling apart, you probably want to hold on to it and try to fix it up and keep it. But on the other hand, just looking at the environment here, just looking at the weather, you must have rapidly, rapidly depreciating housing stock.
老旧住房与气候韧性
Jimmy: 安克雷奇住房面临的最大挑战之一是其韧性(resilience: 指系统或结构在面对外部冲击时能够保持或迅速恢复其功能的能力)。安克雷奇的大部分住房是在70年代和80年代建造的,当时阿拉斯加,你可能听说过阿拉斯加输油管道(Alaska pipeline: 一条横跨阿拉斯加的巨大输油管道,其建设曾带动当地经济和人口快速增长),听说过吧?是的。很多房屋都是用2x4木材结构(2x4 construction: 一种常见的轻型木框架建筑方法,使用2x4英寸的木材作为结构支撑)建造的,其建筑技术和实践适用于南方地区。这样说是不是比说“美国本土48州”更好?
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That's one of the biggest challenges that Anchorage housing faces is its resilience. Most of the housing in Anchorage was built during the 70s and 80s when Alaska, you may have heard of this thing called the Alaska pipeline, heard of it. Yeah. And a lot of the housing was thrown up with 2x4 construction based on construction techniques and practices that were appropriate for somewhere down south. How's that for not saying lower 48?
Joe: 这意味着……
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And and what that means is
Jimmy: 我喜欢我们回到纽约时,我们是在美国的南部。
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I like we're in the southern part of the United States here when we when we go back to New York.
Jimmy: 这里的房屋建造方式确实不适合这种气候。我的意思是,建造时没有考虑到房屋的长期可持续性和韧性。所以,我们发现自己处于这样一种境地:当人们搬进来成为新房主时,他们必须花费大量资源来改善现有的房屋,因为就像Daniel说的,在安克雷奇地区,我们没有那么多土地可以建造新房。因此,我们很多时候必须做的就是修缮我们现有的住房存量。所以,我们把时间和精力集中在投资能源效率、隔热、确保拥有合适的供暖系统、确保门窗位置正确等方面,以确保我们的住房是适宜的。
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The the housing is really not built appropriately for this climate. I mean, it was built where you don't have a consideration for the long-term sustainability and resilience of that housing. So, we find ourselves in a situation where when people come in and they're a homeowner to a new house, they have to spend a lot of their resources improving that existing house because like Daniel said, we don't have that much land to build in new places in the Anchorage area. So, a lot of what we have to do is fix the current housing stock that we do have. So, an investment in energy efficiency, insulation, making sure you have an appropriate heating system, making sure that the windows and doors are are in the right place is what we focus our time and effort on to make sure that our housing is appropriate.
住房开发的复杂性与能力建设
Joe: 我们能多谈谈这个本质上的供给侧(supply side: 经济学中指生产和提供商品及服务的一方)问题吗?比如,从事住房开发的公司有多少活跃的开发商?以及阿拉斯加固有的自然条件给建筑和维修带来的具体供应链限制(supply chain constraints: 指供应链中存在的限制因素,如物流、材料、劳动力等,影响生产和交付)。
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Can we talk a little bit more about this essentially supply side? like how many like active developers are there in terms of like companies that do housing development and then the specific like supply chain constraints that the inherent nature of Alaska poses to construction and repair.
Daniel: 当然。我来谈谈这个问题。开发商群体。对于像我这样在美国或准政府机构工作的人来说,试图推测开发商的真实数量是非常危险的,因为有很多我没有接触过的人也在州内做着非常重要的事情。我们运营着大约10个不同的住房项目,这些项目建造或购买人们居住的房屋,这与我们全州的使命是一致的。我们与全州大约70个不同的非营利组织合作伙伴合作。在任何给定时间,全州可能有30到40个不同的开发项目正在进行。所以,我的意思是,是10个?是20个?这取决于年份。我们谈论的是什么?我们是在谈论那些使用政府资金的人,比如低收入住房税收抵免计划(low-income housing tax credit program: 美国联邦政府的一项计划,旨在鼓励私人投资建设面向低收入人群的住房)或拨款?还是在谈论个人房屋建造者?是建造市中心多功能综合体(multiplex: 指包含多个独立住宅单元的建筑,如公寓楼或联排别墅)的人,这将是一个八位数或更多的开发项目?还是建造双拼别墅(duplex: 指一栋建筑内包含两个独立住宅单元的房屋)的人?所以,谁是开发商?这是一个有点复杂的问题。就像人们问我们每套房屋的开发成本是多少一样,当我们报告我们在公共方面建造住房单位的工作时,我们考虑的是一个完整的预算。所以,当我们说在州内向一个社区提供新住房的成本是每套35万美元时,我们指的是收购成本、建设成本、支付建筑师费用、支付开发商费用以及所有其他费用。如果你与一个可能也认为自己是开发商的承包商交谈,他们可能只报告垂直建设成本,而将其他费用排除在外。所以,当我们定义这些术语时,语言真的会影响答案。因此,与我们合作的开发商,我想说大约有10到20家通过我们的拨款项目与我们机构合作开发多户住房。全州还有很多人建造住房,我认为他们同样会被其他人称为开发商,包括他们的银行和社区合作伙伴。所以这真的取决于你与谁交谈。
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Sure. So I'll take a shot at this. the development community. It's a it's a very dangerous thing for a person like me that works in a US or a quasi government agency to try and speculate about the true population of developers because there are all kinds of people that I don't talk to that do very important things in the state. We operate about 10 different housing programs that build or buy things that people will live in that's consistent with our mission across the state. We have uh roughly 70 partners that we work with across the state that are various nonprofits. uh we'll have maybe 30 or 40 different developments going on at any given time across the state. So I mean is it 10? Is it 20? It depends on the the year. And what are we talking about? Are we talking about people that work with government money like the low-inccome housing tax credit program or grants? Or are we talking about individual homebuilders? Is it a person who's building a multiplex downtown that's going to be an 8 figureure development or more? Or is it a person who's building a duplex? So who's a developer? It's sort of a loaded question. And sort of like when people ask us how much does it cost to develop per door, when we're reporting what we're doing on the public side with building housing units, we're looking at a complete budget. So when we say it cost $350,000 a door to deliver new housing to a community in the state, we're talking about the cost of acquisition, the cost of construction, paying an architect, paying a developer fee, all these other things. If you're talking to a contractor who might also consider themselves a developer, they might just be reporting the vertical construction costs and they're keeping things off. So the language when we define these terms really affects the answer. So the developers that we work with, I'd say about 10 to 20 work with our agency to develop multifamily housing through our grant programs. There are a ton of people that build housing all across the state that I think would equally be called developers by other people, including their banks and their community partners. So it really depends on who you talk to.
住房建设的制约因素:劳动力、资本与能力
Joe: 好的,就这一点而言,我理解关于安克雷奇这样的地方的许可和建设地点的问题,但请多谈谈新建筑实际面临的制约因素。材料成本很高。我想可能还有劳动力问题,在很多方面,你知道,如果你在安克雷奇这样的地方建造住宅,你可能要与石油和天然气公司争夺承包商,这些公司可能会支付更高的费用来建造其他东西。那么,具体的制约因素到底是什么,无论是材料、施工、劳动力、许可、土地可用性还是融资?你如何描述这些因素?
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So just on this note, I take the point about permitting and where you're building in a place like Anchorage, but talk a little bit more about what the constraints actually are on new construction. So there's the high cost of materials. I imagine there's probably labor and in many respects, you know, if you're building residential in a place like Anchorage, you might be competing for contractors with, I don't know, an oil and gas company that's probably paying more money for them to build something else. So what exactly are the exact constraints you know whether it's materials, construction, labor, permitting, land availability, finance? How would you describe those?
Daniel: 当然。你说要讲技术细节。所以,柯布-道格拉斯生产函数(Cobb-Douglas production function: 经济学中一种描述生产要素投入与产出之间关系的数学模型,通常涉及劳动力和资本)你还记得经济学课上的生产函数吗?比如,你能做的事情是劳动力和资本的函数,对吧?
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Sure. So there's uh you said to get technical. So um Cobb Douglas, you remember the production function from economics class where like what you can do is a function of labor and capital, right?
Daniel: 还有一些涉及技术的东西可以改变这条曲线。所以有劳动力投入,有资金方面的资本投入,但也有你如何利用技术以及其背后的系统。所以你关于开发制约因素的问题,它一部分是劳动力,一部分是资本,一部分是物流,因为这些都是巨大的问题。但是,随着我们拥有的那群开始退休的老龄人口,以及分散在阿拉斯加各个偏远地区的人们,能力(capacity: 指一个系统、组织或个人能够完成某项任务或达到某个目标的最大限度)对很多人来说也是一个巨大的制约。我认为Jimmy的团队也与我们的合作伙伴在这方面做了很多工作。
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There's also something that involves technology that transforms that curve. So there are labor inputs, there are capital inputs in terms of money, but it's also what you do with technology and the system behind it. So your question about development constraints, it is part labor, it is part capital, it is part logistics because these are huge issues. But with the aging sort of group of people that we have that are starting to retire and the people that are spread out all across the different far-flung reaches of Alaska, the capacity is as much of a constraint for a lot of these folks. And this is something I think Jimmy's team works with our partners a lot on as well.
Jimmy: 能力对他们中的一些人来说,与资金
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The capacity is as much of an issue to some of them as funding
Daniel: 或建筑材料一样是个问题,因为我们可以投入资金。可以有资源来建造住房,但如果没人知道如何利用这些资源,那就会阻止一个社区真正开发住房。所以,这是我们一直在做的一些开发倡议之一,不仅仅是提供资金或其他联邦资源等必需品,而是说,嘿,我们知道一些你的社区可能不知道的事情,因为除了社区在地理上分散之外,我们作为一个州的技能基础也分散了,我们有遍布全州的人才,他们了解各种事情。有些人在采购方面很出色,他们位于没有自来水的公路系统之外。有些人在财务方面有专长。你会在一些社区找到斯坦福大学的毕业生,但你需要组建一个了解很多事情的团队才能实现住房建设。所以,当我们看到他们拥有推动住房开发所需的五件事中的三件时,可能缺少我们拥有的两件事,我们需要将它们带入社区,这与资本一样是开发等式中重要的一部分。
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or construction materials because we can put money out there. There can be resources to build housing, but if no one knows how to do anything with it, that can stop a community from actually developing housing. So that's one of the things that we've been doing with some of our development initiatives is not just coming forward with some of the needed things like money or some of the other like federal resources but saying hey we know some of the things that maybe your community doesn't because in addition to being spread out community-wise our skill base as a state is also spread out we have people all over the state who understand things. There are people who are great at procurement that are located off the road system that don't have running water. There are people that understand finance. You'll find Stanford grads in some of these communities, but you need to put together a team of people that understand a lot of things to make housing happen. So, when we see that they have three of the five things that they need to make a housing development move forward, there may be the missing two things that we have that we need to bring into the community that's as much a part of the development equation as capital is.
社区凝聚力与地方领导力
Jimmy: 是的,Daniel,我认为这体现了阿拉斯加住房金融公司与州内许多实体的合作关系。你知道,我想到了阿拉斯加住房管理局协会(Alaska Association of the Housing Authorities: 一个由阿拉斯加州内不同区域住房管理局组成的组织)。它是一个由州内14个不同区域住房管理局组成的组织,你知道,我们如何能够与他们沟通并带来额外的资源,以便我们能够共同应对挑战,对吧?因为就像我之前说的,没有万能药,没有一刀切的解决方案,而且你知道,要有效,你必须以团队成员的身份提供帮助。
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Yeah, Daniel, I I think that speaks to Alaska Finance Corporation's partnerships with a lot of entities in the state. You know, I think of the Alaska Association of the Housing Authorities. It's a 14 member organization of different regional housing authorities in the state and you know, how we're able to communicate with them and bring additional resources to bear so that we can be in this together, right? Because like I said earlier, it's there's no magic bullet. there's no one-sizefits-all and and you know to be effective you have to provide that assistance as a a team member.
Joe: 我认为这是一个非常有趣的想法,比如在纽约市这样的地方,当然任何新的住房开发都需要大量拥有不同技能的人,无论是知道如何安装管道的电工,还是知道如何处理许可的人,而且我知道纽约市的许多大型开发商都是一站式服务,或者可能是一两站式服务,等等。而在阿拉斯加,所有这些知识都存在,但它却如此分散,所以你没有那种知识密度(knowledge density: 指在一个特定区域或网络中,知识和专业技能的集中程度)或网络效应(network effects: 指产品或服务的价值随着用户数量的增加而增加的现象),我认为在谈到住房时我们很少考虑到这一点,但在这种背景下谈论它却非常直观。
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I think that's just like a really interesting idea that like you know in a place like New York City like of course any new housing development is going to take lots of people with lots of different skills whether it's the person who knows how to put in plumbing the electrical knows how to deal with permitting and you know I'm sure many of the big developers in New York City are like one-stop shops or maybe it's a twostop shop or whatever and the idea that in Alaska like all that knowledge is there but it's just so spread out so you don't have that sort of like knowledge density or those network effects which we don't really think of I think a lot when it comes to housing but it's very intuitive when you talk about it in this context
Jimmy: 而且想想,回到州的人口问题,我们仍然必须做所有相同的事情。
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and and think about right back to the population of the state we still have to do all the same things
Daniel: 仍然有所有相同的工作,只是有超过70万人,对吧?但如果你在纽约这样的地方,有数百万人可以做这些工作,对吧?所以,在这个州,个人有更大的机会承担一个角色并学习新事物。但我们没有那么多人来完成需要完成的事情。
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there's still all the same jobs there's just over 700,000 people right but if you're in a place like New York there's millions of people to do the jobs right so so there's much greater opportunity here in the state for individuals to step into a role and learn new things But there's there's not as many of us to do the things that need to get done.
Daniel: 我认为这是我们的优势之一,因为在阿拉斯加建造住房有很多挑战。但我尽量不让它听起来像是一片悲观。我们有很多事情做得很好。我刚才在一个相当小的社区,它是一个位于公路系统之外的枢纽。市长和我们一起在工地上,其中一位木匠亲切地称呼她,方式可能人力资源部门不会喜欢,但他们非常开朗。这位民选领导人在镇上经营一家礼品店,她与承包商直呼其名。她还用拳头打了公用事业主管的胳膊,当时他刚下车。我的意思是,他们彼此认识。当我们带着这种联系进入社区时,我们是他们的邻居,这些人彼此相邻而居。他们愿意互相帮助,我不知道亚当斯市长(Mayor Adams: 指纽约市市长Eric Adams)是否与纽约市的木匠有这种关系。
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That's I think one of our strengths because there are a lot of things that are challenging about building housing in Alaska. But I'm trying not to make it sound like it's all doom and gloom. We have a lot of things that do go for us well. I was just in a a fairly small community. It's a a hub off the road system. And the mayor was on a job site with us and uh one of the carpenters referred to her affectionately in a way that probably HR wouldn't like, but they're very jovial. And this uh this elected leader runs a gift shop in town and she's on a firstname basis with the contractor. She punched the uh utilities director in the arm when he got out of the truck. I mean, they know each other. When we go in with this sort of connection, we're their neighbors and these are people that live right next to each other. They're willing to help each other in a way that I don't know if Mayor Adams has that relationship with carpenters in New York City.
Joe: 我相信他会说他与木匠有一些关系。具体是什么性质,我们不完全清楚。但是……
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I'm sure he would say he has some relationship with carpenters. What the nature of it is, we don't exactly know. But
Daniel: 哦,你听说过我们的市长。你听说过……
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oh, you've heard of our mayor. You've heard
Daniel: 但他们关心,他们更倾向于互相合作,因为他们的生活方式可能让大城市里有几十万人口的人难以理解我们可能合作的民选领导人与实际能够完成工作的一线人员之间的关系。这正是我们最近的一些举措能够奏效的原因,因为这些人确实认识他们的邻居,他们作为一个社区,在促成某事方面有着共同的既得利益。所以,尽管我们面临很多挑战,但这我认为是我们进入社区时最大的优势之一,就是能够利用这些关系。
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but but they care and they're they're a lot more predisposed to work with each other because they live in a way that's probably difficult for people in major cities with hundreds of thousands of people to understand the relationships between the elected leaders that we may work with and the people on the ground that are actually going to be able to do the work. And that's what's made some of the initiatives that we've been doing recently actually work because these are people that actually know their neighbors and they they have a really vested a joint vested interest as a community in making something happen. So that is one of the things that we have a lot of challenges but that's one of our I think greatest strengths when we go into the communities is being able to leverage those relationships
“最后的边疆”住房倡议:定制化解决方案
Joe: 为了强调这一点。你能给我们举一个例子吗?比如你在锡特卡或其他地方做的一个项目,你试图引入所需的技能或所需的建筑工人及专业知识,以便启动一个项目,并详细说明这个过程到底是什么样的。好的。阿拉斯加有很多地方,住房是一个巨大的挑战,以至于当地雇主不得不为他们的员工建造住房。州政府工作人员没有这个选择,因为州政府不像一些大型医疗客户那样财力雄厚,可以做所有这些事情,或者像银行那样。所以我们开始看到的是,我们的执行董事Brian Butcher(阿拉斯加住房金融公司执行董事)正在联系州内的其他专员,他们有一些长期空缺的职位,并且由于空缺时间过长,他们面临失去这些职位的危险,因为这些人没有地方居住。
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just to hone in on this point. Can you give us an example of, you know, a project that you did in, I don't know, like a Sitka or something like that that, you know, where you were trying to bring in the requisite skills or the requisite construction workers and expertise in order to get something off the ground and like in excruciating detail. Walk us through what that process actually looks like. Okay. So, there are a lot of places in Alaska where uh housing is such a challenge that local employers have resorted to actually building housing for their employees. State workers don't really have that option because the state doesn't have deep pockets like some of the big health clients do to do all these other things or like banks. So what we started seeing was our executive director Brian Butcher was reaching out to some of the other commissioners in the state and they had positions that had been vacant for a long time and they were in danger of losing the positions because they had been vacant for so long because there was nowhere for these people to live.
Tracy: 哇。
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Wow.
Daniel: 所以,如果你去这些社区中的任何一个,冬天负责跑道维护的人(这是你物流运输的主要来源)可能找不到住房。这对于其中一些社区来说,真的是一个生死攸关的问题。所以我们想,为什么我们不利用我们的项目呢?为什么这些社区不利用我们的项目来开发住房呢?于是,我们决定采取更直接的方式。我们想,我们是地方政府,我们是一个准州级机构。我们可以与他们进行政府对政府的合作,并询问,在你们社区开发住房需要什么?因为这对社区来说是一个关键问题,我们需要齐心协力找到解决方案。所以,我们开发了一个我们自己想出的项目。我们以我们州的座右铭命名它为“最后的边疆住房倡议”(Last Frontier Housing Initiative: 阿拉斯加住房金融公司发起的一项计划,旨在帮助偏远社区解决住房短缺问题)。我们向几个地方政府提供了大约500万美元的资金,只是其中几个,并说,我们希望在你们社区建造X数量的住房单位,一些是为专业人员准备的,一些是经济适用房。我们试图让这个金额足够大,对社区有吸引力,并能引起一些兴趣。但这就是我们所做的。我们没有规定必须是两居室,必须是这样那样。我们允许社区根据他们的意愿提出要求,这样我们就能响应他们的需求。他们中的一些人想帮助市政人员。我们不知道他们会有什么样的土地,什么样的能力。我们与我们接触的五个合作伙伴的所有对话都截然不同。一个社区缺少20人,这是一个小社区,所以市政工作人员缺少20人是一个很大的数字。他们甚至没有市检察官。他们说:“我们基本上需要你们为我们做几乎所有的事情。我们会成为你们的审查委员会成员,但那差不多就是我们能做的所有了。”另一个社区,他们有土地,他们说:“嗯,是的,我们有一个采购部门。这很棒。我们有土地。我们不知道你们的项目是如何运作的。”所以,我们飞到那里,为他们进行了培训以及所有其他事情。另一个社区,他们不太理解很多事情。我们不得不去那里,那就像一集《创智赢家》(Shark Tank: 一档美国创业真人秀节目,创业者向投资者推销自己的商业理念),我们坐在那里几个小时,社区里的每个人都开始询问有关资源的问题,因为很多人都被那些飞进来并提供可能出于好意的帮助的人所蒙蔽,他们说:“哦,阿拉斯加,我们会给你们指路。让我们带你们走出荒野。”
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And so if you go out to any of these communities, the person who takes care of the runway in the winter, which is your main source of transport for logistics, might not be able to find housing. Like this is a really this is a life and death issue for some of these communities. So, we're like, well, why aren't we we have programs? Why aren't these communities utilizing our programs to develop housing? Well, we decided to get a little bit more direct. We're like, well, we're they're local governments. We're a quasi state agency. We can work with them on a government-to-government basis and say, what is it going to take to get housing developed in your community because this is like a critical issue for community and we need to come together and figure out a way to solve it. So, we developed something that we came up with. We called it the last frontier housing initiative after our state's motto. And we approached local governments with about $5 million each, just a couple of them, and said, uh, we want x number of housing units to go up into your communities, some professional workers, some affordable housing. We tried to make it big enough so that it would be a big enough dollar amount that would be attractive for the community and have generate some interest. But that's what we did. We didn't come and say it has to be a two-bedroom, it has to be this, x, y, or z. We allowed the ask to the community to come from a place where we could be responsive to what they wanted to do. Some of them wanted to help out municipal people. We didn't know what kind of land they'd have, what kind of a capacity they'd have. And all the conversations with the five partners that we approached were extremely different. One community was down 20 people, and this is a small community, so down 20 people for a municipal staff is big. They didn't even have a city attorney. They're like, "We basically need you to do almost everything for us. We'll be on a review committee for you, but that's about all we can do." Another community, they had land and they're like, "Uh, yeah, we have a procurement department. It's great. We have land. We don't know how any of this stuff works with your program." So, we flew down there and we did, uh, training with them and all this other stuff. Another community, they didn't understand a lot of it. We had to go up there and it was like an episode of Shark Tank uh sitting there for a couple of hours while everyone from the community started asking questions about the resource because a lot of these people are sold a bill of goods from folks that fly in and offer probably well-intentioned help saying, "Oh, Alaska, we we'll show you the way. Let us lead you out of the wilderness."
Jimmy: 补充一下,阿拉斯加人最不想听到的就是来自美国本土48州的人跑到这里告诉我们应该做什么或怎么做。
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And to jump in there, that is what Alaskans do not want to hear is somebody from the lower 48 coming here telling us what we need or how to do something.
Joe: 我们来自纽约,我们是来帮忙的。
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We're from New York and we're here to help.
Daniel: 是的,因为那样的对话不会有好结果。我的意思是,我们飞到一个可能只有一千人的社区,一群社区长老坐在桌旁。我们是社区的客人。所以,这就像是:这是我们的资源。我们想帮助你们。这基本上就是让对话自然进行。所以,根据社区对我们的需求,方法非常不同,但这一切的基础是,我们带着资源和我们承诺会支持的承诺来到他们面前。除此之外的一切,都是社区自己决定他们想做什么。他们是想扮演更积极的角色,还是不想?比如,他们中的一些人正在与城市管理者打交道,这些管理者要处理下水道线路等各种问题。他们不知道如何与承包商谈判。他们完全不知道承包商提出的付款请求是否合理,这取决于事实和情况。所以对他们中的一些人来说,我们就像一根救命稻草,告诉他们我们有很多开发项目,在任何给定时间,我们都有数亿美元的开发项目正在全州进行。所以这对我们来说是轻车熟路,我们可以从一个他们信任的地方提供技术专长,因为他们已经与我们合作多年。这并不是我们与许多社区的第一次对话。他们知道我们所代表的机构没有欺骗他们的历史。所以当他们打电话问这是否合理时,我们说,你有没有考虑过这个?你有没有考虑过这个?你有没有考虑过这个?他们正在进行一场任何人都可以与他们进行的对话,但他们信任我们能提供真实的答案。我们在这方面做了很多工作。
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Yeah. cuz that conversation does not go over well. I mean, we're flying into a community of maybe a thousand people and a bunch of the community elders are at the table. We're the guest in the community. So, it's like here's our resource. We want to help you. And that's it's pretty much just letting the conversation play out. So, the approaches were very different based on what the community wanted from us, but the thing that underpinned all of it was we were coming to them with a resource and a promise of support that we would stand behind. And everything else beyond that was the community's decision as to what they wanted to do. Did they want to take a more active role? Did they not want to? Like some of them were dealing with city managers who are dealing with sewer lines, things like this, any number of issues. They don't know how to negotiate with the contractor. They have no idea if a contractor asking for this payment request is reasonable based on the facts and circumstances. So for some of them we were just a lifeline saying we have lots of developments and we any given point in time we have hundreds of millions of dollars in developments that are going on across the state. So this is second nature for us and we can provide that technical expertise from a place that they trust because they've worked with us for a number of years. This isn't the first conversation that we've had with a lot of the communities. They know that the agency that we represent doesn't have a history of burning them. So when they call and say is this reasonable and we say well have you thought about this? Have you thought about this? have you thought about this? They're having a conversation that anyone else could have with them, but they trust us to provide them the truthful answer. And we were able to do a lot with that one.
独特的融资模式与项目优先级
Joe: 既然你提到了数亿美元的开发项目,那我们来谈谈融资的财务部分吧。我们对各种住房融资模式非常感兴趣,尤其是在当前利率水平下,以及谁来承担负担。你能不能告诉我们你们是如何自我融资的,是否使用市政债券市场(municipal bond market: 地方政府和公共机构发行债券以筹集资金的市场)以及在阿拉斯加是否有我们美国本土48州可能不了解的、有创意的住房建设融资方式?
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Since you mentioned the hundreds of millions in development, let's actually talk about the finance part of finance and we're very interested in various financing models for housing and are there way given especially given where interest rates are etc. and who bears the burden. Why don't you talk to us about like how you finance yourself, whether you use the municipal bond market and are you know creative ways of financing the construction of housing in Alaska that are not that maybe those of us in the lower 48 don't uh appreciate.
Daniel: 我不是首席财务官,如果我试图解释他做了什么,我们的首席财务官(他是一名冰球运动员)可能会非常激进地冲下来。我们是一个自负盈亏的公司(self-supporting corporation: 指一个机构或公司能够依靠自身收入维持运营,无需外部资金支持)。所以我们有一个抵押贷款部门,提供抵押贷款融资。我们的财务部门活跃于债券市场,确保我们的项目有资金。Jimmy和我运营的许多项目都由AHFC的收益资助。我们受行政预算法案(executive budget act: 规定州政府机构预算编制和执行的法律)的约束。所以我们的预算每年都会提交给朱诺,并进行分配,通常会有关于如何利用公司收益来资助我们一些项目的建议。所以,比如我们的部门和规划部门管理着大约20个项目,它们是州政府、联邦政府和基金会拨款(foundation grants: 由慈善基金会提供的资金支持)以及财政部的税收抵免(tax credits from treasury: 政府为鼓励特定行为而提供的税收减免)的组合,然后Jimmy还有来自其他许多地方的资金来源。所以它是一个自负盈亏的公司。有时会有基金会进来匹配其他类似的资金。我们在住房领域使用金融工具。其中一些比另一些更具相关性。当你看到一个在公路系统之外开发一个单位需要50万美元的项目时,将利率从6%降到5.375%并不能真正让那50万美元的成本变得不那么令人望而却步。所以,就Jimmy和我我认为在很多任务领域推动住房发展的事情而言,我们倾向于看到的是,通常不是人们抛出的像夹层融资(mezzanine financing: 一种介于股权和高级债务之间的混合融资形式)或其他这些奇怪的债务产品。这些通常不会推动公司我所看到的多户住房市场的变化。但有一个完整的房屋所有权和贷款世界,以及与银行的关系,我们并没有真正触及,我不想谈论,因为那可能真的超出了我们的专业领域。
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So I'm not the CFO and our CFO hockey player that he is would probably come down here very aggressively if I tried to explain what he did. Um we're a self-supporting corporation. So we we have a mortgage department that provides mortgage financing. Our finance department is active in the bond market making sure that our uh programs have capital. A lot of the programs that Jimmy and I operate are funded from AHFC's earnings. Uh we're under the executive budget act. Uh so our budget goes to Juno every year and it's allocated and usually there's a recommendation of what to do with the earnings from the corporation for some of our programs. So like uh our department and the planning department we manage roughly 20 programs and it's a combination of state federal and foundation grants and uh tax credits from treasury and then Jimmy has other funding sources from a bunch of different places. So it's a self-supporting corporation. Sometimes there are foundations that come in and match other things like that. There are financial tools that we use in housing. Some of them are more relevant than others. When you're looking at development that costs a I don't know $500,000 to develop a unit off the road system, going from a 6% interest rate down to a five and 38 doesn't really make that $500,000 a door something less prohibitive. So what we tend to see in terms of the things that are driving housing in the mission spaces that Jimmy and I I think work in a lot, it's not usually the these things like people throw out terms like mezzanine financing or these other weird types of debt products. Those don't usually move the market for the multifamily stuff in the space that I see at the corporation. But there's an entire world of home ownership and lending and the relationships with the banks that we don't really touch that I don't want to speak to because that's probably really out of our area of expertise.
Joe: 是的,我想这是真的。
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Yeah, I I would say that's true.
Joe: 好的。这是一个相关的问题,但我猜无论你们的财务状况如何,你们在能力上总会受到某种限制。阿拉斯加州内有相对较大的城市中心,比如费尔班克斯或安克雷奇,它们都有住房需求,同时许多不同的农村社区也有大量的住房需求。你们如何决定在哪里进行干预,以及如何实际优先安排一个项目?
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Okay. Well, sort of a related question, but I imagine no matter what's going on with your finances, you are, you know, limited in some way in what you can do and you have housing needs in relatively large urban centers within Alaska. So whether it's Fairbanks or Anchorage or whatever and then you have lots of housing needs in lots of different rural communities, how do you decide where you need to intervene and how you actually prioritize a project?
Jimmy: 正如Daniel所说,阿拉斯加住房金融公司是一个准州级政府实体。所以我们基本上是根据立法机关和州长办公室的指示来行动的,对吧?因此,我们所做的许多倡议都带着这样的方向和意图。
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As Daniel mentioned, Lost Housing Finance Corporation is a quasi state governmental entity. So we take our direction from the legislature and the governor's office essentially, right? So there's a lot of the the initiatives that we work on are coming with that direction and that intent.
Jimmy: 例如,我和我们团队的一个工作领域是,通过防风防寒改造(weatherization: 指对房屋进行改造,以提高其能源效率和抵御恶劣天气的能力)来改善农村社区的住房存量,并确保这些社区的居民再次拥有适合他们气候的住房,因为你知道,那些在阿拉斯加长期居住并世代相传的人,他们总是有一种“我能行”的态度,我会投入一些汗水资本(sweat equity: 指通过自己的劳动和努力而非金钱投入来增加资产价值)到一些真正体现在他们的生活方式和社区中的事情上。但很多时候,他们不一定有资源去做这些。Daniel刚才谈到了“最后的边疆住房倡议”项目。我认为这是一个帮助社区的好方法,就是提供这些资源。所以,当我们的防风防寒改造项目进入一个社区时,我们不仅仅是改造一栋房子。我们会进入并改造整个社区,因为我们需要利用规模经济(economies of scale: 指随着生产规模的扩大,单位产品的成本下降的现象)。我们需要确保,如果我们要将材料、隔热材料、门窗等物品装上驳船,然后运到诺顿湾,甚至可能沿河而上到达社区,以便我们可以在整个社区进行全面的防风防寒改造项目,并影响那里70%到80%的住房单位。所以,我认为拥有利用规模经济的能力,然后与社区合作,使住房更具韧性,是非常合适的。
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For example, one of the areas that I work on and we work on in on our team is improving the housing stock in rural communities through weatherization and making sure that the individuals in those communities again have housing that is appropriate for their climate because you know they you know the people that have lived in Alaska for long durations and over the generations you know they've always had this can do attitude and I'm going to put some sweat equity into something that is really shines through in their lifestyle and their community. But often times they, you know, they don't necessarily have the resources to do that. And and Daniel was talking about the last frontier housing initiative program. And I think that's a a wonderful way to help the community is providing those resources. So when we go into a community with our weatherization program, we're not just going in to do one house. We're going to come in and we're going to do the community because we need to take advantage of economies of scale. We need to make sure that if we're going to put materials, insulation, windows and doors, things of this nature on a barge to then ship them up to the Norton Sound and maybe up a river to get to the community so that we can do an overall weatherization project in that whole community and impact 70 80% of the housing units there, you know. So I I think having the ability to take advantage economies of scale and then work with the community to make that housing more resilient is very appropriate.
衡量项目成功的标准
Daniel: 是的。关于优先排序的问题,我们是一个州级机构。所以这有点像让父母选择他们最喜欢的孩子。
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Yeah. So on the subject of prioritizing, we're a stayweight agency. So it's kind of like asking a parent to choose their favorite child.
Daniel: 我们努力确保我们的资源分配方式能够以相关的方式响应整个州的需求。所以我们所做的一件事,就像我说的,我们仅在我们部门就运营着20多个项目。我们从这些项目的运营中获得了大量信息,例如无家可归者住房干预措施的成本、开发成本、运营成本趋势等。然后我们还委托进行租赁市场的一手数据调查,然后我们每季度对贷款机构进行调查,以了解市场自身正在做什么,而我们不需要做,因为它已经解决了。所以我们努力确保我们不会与已经发生的事情重复,并且我们正在用住房资源服务于我们州未满足的需求。所以这是很大一部分。但另一件事,也是让“最后的边疆住房倡议”和我们的一些新冠疫情应对措施奏效的原因之一,就是我们与合作伙伴进行沟通。我们全州有70个不同的合作伙伴,我们与他们保持相当定期的接触,我们只是问一些问题,比如你们社区发生了什么?我的意思是,技术在扩大项目和类似事物的可及性方面发挥了很大作用,但面对面地与合作伙伴实际联系和互动,走访他们的社区,就像我们夏天一直在做的那样,这才是我们真正了解如何调整项目的地方,因为特别是对于我们的州级项目,这些都是Word文档,如果Brian同意或告诉我们需要改变方向,我们就可以在楼上修改。我们许多来自新冠疫情的无家可归者应对倡议都是基于我们过去十年从无家可归者和支持性住房合作伙伴那里听到的反馈而开发的。“最后的边疆住房倡议”也是如此。当我们修订一些评级项目时,我们实际上会打电话给人们,问:“那么,你们如何决定何时翻新项目?”或者当你们考虑一个开发项目时,你们实际上喜欢什么?请向我们介绍一下这个过程。我们努力从他们那里了解情况。所以,这不像我们从安克雷奇这里我们的小四层楼里为整个州做出决定。我们确实努力根据从我们的项目获得的数据以及与社区合作伙伴的对话来做出明智的决策。
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We try and make sure that our resources are allocated in a way that responds to the entire state in a way that's relevant. So one of the things that we do like I said we operate a lot of programs over 20 in our department alone. We get a lot of information from the operations of these programs of uh how much homeless housing interventions cost, how much developments cost, operating cost trends, things like this. Then we also commission primary data on the rental market and then we uh do a quarterly survey of lenders to try and understand what is the market doing on its own that we don't need to do because it's already taken care of it. So we try and make sure that we're not being redundant to what's already happening and we're actually serving an unmet need in our state with the housing resources. So that's a big part of it. But then the other thing and one of the things that makes the last frontier housing initiative work and some of our COVID responses, we talk to our partners. We have 70 different partners all across the state and we engage with them on a fairly regular basis and we just ask questions like what's going on in your community? I mean, technology has been able to do a lot about expanding access to programs and things like that, but the old school way of actually connecting and engaging with partners face to face, going out to their communities like what we've been doing over the summer, that is really where we learn a lot of what we need to do to reposition our programs because especially with our state programs, these are on word documents that we can change upstairs if Brian gives us the go-ahad or tells us that we need to change direction. A lot of our homeless response initiatives from COVID were developed based on feedback that we'd heard from our homeless and supportive housing partners over the last decade. The last frontier housing initiative, the same thing. When we're going through revisions to some of our rating programs, we actually call people and say, "Well, how do you make a decision on when it's time to renovate your project?" Or when you're looking at a development, what do you actually like walk us through the process? We try and understand things from them. So it's not so much us making a decision from our little fourstory building here in Anchorage for the entire state. We really do try and inform that based on the data that we get from our programs and the conversations from our community partners.
Joe: 我来问一个相关的问题。你们如何判断一个项目的成功?因为我再次想象,在像安克雷奇这样的农村地区,也许你可以用传统的方式来衡量。比如,我们建造了一批住房,然后看到很多人搬进来,经济增长增加了多少个基点或百分比等等。但如果你谈论的是一个偏远社区,那里可能大部分人口基本上是自给自足(subsistence living: 指依靠当地自然资源维持基本生存,而非通过市场经济活动获取生活必需品),你们如何实际