基础模型平庸化:Mistral 创始人亚瑟·门施访谈 Best Partners TV 2026-02-02

开场介绍

主持人: 大家好,这里是最佳拍档。今天,我们来深度拆解欧洲AI领军企业Mistral的CEO亚瑟·门施的一场访谈。作为在AI赛道上与中美巨头分庭抗礼的欧洲代表,Mistral的视角可以说兼具了技术的深度与商业的现实感。而亚瑟·门施的这次分享,更是直接点破了AI行业正在从追逐全能幻象到回归业务本质的核心变化。这场访谈覆盖了基础模型趋势、企业应用落地、开源闭源之争、主权AI战略等十大关键议题,每一个观点都可能改写我们对AI未来的认知。接下来,我们就来跟随亚瑟·门施的思路,看看AI行业又在发生哪些底层变革。

Original English

Hello everyone, welcome to Best Partner. Today, we will deeply dissect an interview with Arthur Mensch, the CEO of Mistral, a leading AI company in Europe. As a European representative competing with Chinese and American giants in the AI arena, Mistral's perspective can be said to combine technical depth with business realism. Arthur Mensch's sharing directly reveals the core shift in the AI industry from pursuing the illusion of omnipotence to returning to the essence of business. This interview covers ten key topics including foundation model trends, enterprise application landing, open-source vs. closed-source, and sovereign AI strategy. Every viewpoint could rewrite our understanding of the future of AI. Next, let's follow Arthur Mensch's thinking and see what underlying changes are happening in the AI industry.

基础模型平庸化

主持人: 一开场,亚瑟就抛出了一个惊人的结论,基础模型正在变得平庸化,而且是必然的趋势。可能很多人也会疑惑,2023年我们还在惊叹GPT 4的能力,2024年开源模型开始奋起直追,但是到了2025年底,Google等厂商就已经追平了OpenAI的前沿模型表现。以往那种强者恒强的剧本,为什么突然失效了呢?

Original English

To start, Arthur presented a surprising conclusion: foundation models are becoming commoditized, and this is an inevitable trend. Many people may wonder, in 2023 we were still amazed by the capabilities of GPT-4, in 2024 open-source models began to catch up, but by the end of 2025, companies like Google had already caught up with OpenAI's leading-edge models. Why has the script of "the strong always win" suddenly failed?

亚瑟: 亚瑟给出了三个关键的原因。第一个原因,核心技术的门槛并没有想象中那么高。亚瑟提到,全球掌握AI基础模型核心技术的实验室,大约只有十个。这些实验室获取的数据高度相似,遵循的算法和技术方案也大同小异。更重要的是,这些核心算法其实非常精简。这意味着,AI基础模型的构建并不是一项独门绝技,而是一套可以被复制、被学习的标准化流程。

Original English

Arthur gave three key reasons. The first reason is that the threshold for core technology is not as high as imagined. Arthur mentioned that there are only about ten laboratories in the world that master the core technology of AI foundation models. The data acquired by these laboratories is highly similar, and the algorithms and technical solutions they follow are largely the same. More importantly, these core algorithms are actually very streamlined. This means that building an AI foundation model is not a unique skill, but a set of standardized processes that can be replicated and learned.

亚瑟: 第二个原因,知识扩散的速度远超预期。训练模型所需的关键知识、技术细节,正在以极快的速度在行业内传播,很难形成持久的知识产权壁垒。当每个人都在做同样的事情,都能获取相似的数据和算法时,想要实现跨越式的领先、大幅超越竞争对手,就变得异常困难。

Original English

The second reason is that the speed of knowledge diffusion is far beyond expectations. The key knowledge and technical details required to train models are spreading rapidly within the industry, making it difficult to form lasting intellectual property barriers. When everyone is doing the same thing and can access similar data and algorithms, it becomes extremely difficult to achieve a breakthrough in leadership and significantly surpass competitors.

亚瑟: 第三个原因,模型本身正在成为通用的大宗商品,就像石油、钢铁一样。基础模型的性能差异在不断缩小,领先者的技术优势很难长期保持,资产贬值的速度也远超想象。这就引出了一个关键问题,当基础模型不再稀缺的时候,AI行业的价值会流向哪里?盈利模式又会发生怎样的变化呢?

Original English

The third reason is that the model itself is becoming a commodity, like oil or steel. The performance differences between foundation models are shrinking, making it difficult for leaders to maintain their technological advantage for a long time, and the speed of asset depreciation is far beyond imagination. This leads to a key question: when foundation models are no longer scarce, where will the value of the AI industry flow? How will the profit model change?

下游应用与定制化

亚瑟: 亚瑟毫不避讳地指出,现在有些竞争对手投入了成百上千亿美元,去创造贬值速度极快的通用资产,这种模式存在着巨大风险。最典型的例子是,OpenAI计划投入1.4万亿美元建设基础设施,但是如果下一代模型的性能很快就会被对手追平,这种天文数字的投入是否能带来对应的战略回报,其实要打一个大大的问号。而Mistral的选择,是转向下游应用,回归务实。

Original English

Arthur bluntly pointed out that some competitors are now investing hundreds of billions of dollars to create general assets that depreciate rapidly, and this model poses a huge risk. A typical example is OpenAI's plan to invest $1.4 trillion in infrastructure. But if the performance of the next generation of models is quickly caught up by competitors, it is questionable whether this astronomical investment will bring corresponding strategic returns. Mistral's choice is to turn to downstream applications and return to pragmatism.

亚瑟: 亚瑟强调,AI行业最大的痛点是,几年前我们听到了无数宏伟的承诺,但是直到现在,大多数企业并没有真正从AI中获益。核心问题就在于定制化不足,很多企业是先有了AI解决方案,再去寻找问题,而不是先聚焦自身的核心痛点。所以Mistral的做法是,帮助客户找到正确的应用场景,并且进行深度定制。比如一个原本需要二十人协作完成的供应链调度流程,通过AI的深度优化后,最终可以精简到两人协作。这种实打实的效率提升,才是AI价值的真正体现。

Original English

Arthur emphasized that the biggest pain point in the AI industry is that we heard countless grand promises a few years ago, but until now, most companies have not truly benefited from AI. The core problem lies in insufficient customization. Many companies first have an AI solution and then look for problems, rather than focusing on their core pain points first. Therefore, Mistral's approach is to help customers find the right application scenarios and provide deep customization. For example, a supply chain scheduling process that originally required twenty people to collaborate can be streamlined to two people through in-depth AI optimization. This tangible efficiency improvement is the true embodiment of AI value.

AGI与系统思维

亚瑟: 亚瑟强调,所有的投资最终都必须由下游产生的自由现金流和价值创造来买单。AI行业必须证明,技术带来的价值增长足以覆盖整个社会投入的巨额资金。当基础模型走向平庸,行业的叙事重心也必然发生转移,从构建上帝般的AGI转向构建解决具体问题的业务应用。可能很多人还记得,几年前AGI是行业最热门的话题,大家都在畅想一个能解决世间万难的万能系统,但是现在,即便是OpenAI这样的巨头,也开始转向企业级应用和业务构建。这种转变是否源于技术平庸化所带来的危机感呢?

Original English

Arthur emphasized that all investments must ultimately be paid for by the free cash flow and value creation generated downstream. The AI industry must prove that the value growth brought by technology is sufficient to cover the huge amount of capital invested by society. As foundation models become commoditized, the industry's narrative focus will inevitably shift from building a god-like AGI to building business applications that solve specific problems. Many people may remember that AGI was the hottest topic in the industry a few years ago, and everyone fantasized about a panacea that could solve all the world's problems. But now, even giants like OpenAI are turning to enterprise-level applications and business building. Is this shift driven by a sense of crisis brought about by technological commoditization?

亚瑟: 亚瑟的回答非常直接,他说,AGI对企业来说太抽象了,甚至可以说是一个幻象。现实中,根本不存在能解决所有问题的万能系统。就像没有哪个人能精通所有职业一样,解决具体问题必然需要专业化的能力。我们正在从幻象思维回归系统思维,不再追求一个全能的模型,而是开始思考,哪些数据能够显著提升特定任务的效率,以及如何建立飞轮,通过人机交互不断优化应用的体验呢?

Original English

Arthur's answer was very direct. He said that AGI is too abstract for businesses, and can even be said to be an illusion. In reality, there is no panacea that can solve all problems. Just as no one can be proficient in all professions, solving specific problems requires specialized capabilities. We are returning to systems thinking from illusory thinking, no longer pursuing a versatile model, but starting to think about which data can significantly improve the efficiency of specific tasks, and how to build a flywheel to continuously optimize the application experience through human-computer interaction.

AI Agent架构与企业软件重构

亚瑟: 亚瑟特别强调,AGI更像是一个引导系统不断进化的北极星,是我们尚未实现的目标,而不是当下可以落地的解决方案。之所以行业叙事会发生变化,还有一个现实原因是,AI公司很难向投资者解释,为什么自己的技术不会被对手超越。在这种情况下,企业必须深入业务的细节,用解决实际问题的能力来证明自身的价值。

Original English

Arthur particularly emphasized that AGI is more like a North Star guiding the continuous evolution of the system, an unachieved goal, rather than a solution that can be landed now. Another realistic reason for the change in industry narrative is that AI companies find it difficult to explain to investors why their technology will not be surpassed by competitors. In this case, companies must delve into the details of their business and prove their value by solving real-world problems.

亚瑟: 亚瑟提到,AI最终会走向去中心化,而且由于数据总量和Scaling Law的限制,对定制化能力的需求会越来越强烈。所以Mistral的目标,从一开始就是为企业提供这种专业化的定制能力,而不是追求一个全能的AGI系统。这种回归业务本质的思路正在成为越来越多AI企业的共识。当AI的核心从让模型变聪明转向构建解决问题的系统,一个新的架构逻辑出现了,模型只是组件,编排层才是核心。

Original English

Arthur mentioned that AI will eventually become decentralized, and due to the limitations of data volume and Scaling Law, the demand for customization capabilities will become increasingly strong. Therefore, Mistral's goal from the beginning has been to provide enterprises with this specialized customization capability, rather than pursuing a versatile AGI system. This return to the essence of business is becoming a consensus among more and more AI companies. When the core of AI shifts from making models smarter to building systems that solve problems, a new architectural logic emerges: models are just components, and the orchestration layer is the core.

亚瑟: 亚瑟把它拆解成了两个相辅相成的核心部分,分别是静态定义与动态组件。所谓静态定义,就是由人类设定的工作流规则和系统行为准则,相当于我们用来定义系统的手动信息,比如企业的审批流程、业务规范、决策树等等,这些都是相对固定的,是系统运行的护栏。而动态组件,则是将模型连接到各类工具并且给出指令,模型可以自主调用工具、决定执行逻辑,这部分是灵活可变的。

Original English

Arthur broke it down into two complementary core parts: static definition and dynamic components. The so-called static definition is the workflow rules and system behavior guidelines set by humans, equivalent to the manual information we use to define the system, such as the company's approval processes, business rules, decision trees, etc. These are relatively fixed and are the guardrails of the system. The dynamic components connect the model to various tools and give instructions. The model can autonomously call tools and decide on execution logic. This part is flexible and variable.

开源与闭源的抉择

亚瑟: 亚瑟特别提醒,认为单靠没有人类指导的动态系统就能解决所有问题,是过于理想化的。过去三年,随着模型推理能力的增强、可调用工具种类的增多、以及编程能力的提升,动态部分确实在不断的壮大,但是静态部分依然极其重要。正是静态的护栏加上动态的自主决策,才能创建出更优质、更可靠的系统,解决以前无法处理的复杂问题。这两者的结合将长期占据AI系统的核心地位,它们不是相互替代,而是相辅相成,共同推动我们解决更复杂的业务挑战。

Original English

Arthur particularly reminded that it is overly idealistic to think that a dynamic system without human guidance can solve all problems. Over the past three years, with the enhancement of model reasoning capabilities, the increase in the types of callable tools, and the improvement of programming capabilities, the dynamic part has indeed been growing. However, the static part remains extremely important. It is the combination of static guardrails and dynamic autonomous decision-making that can create better and more reliable systems to solve complex problems that were previously unsolvable. The combination of the two will occupy the core position of AI systems for a long time, they are not substitutes for each other, but complement each other, jointly promoting us to solve more complex business challenges.

亚瑟: 这种系统思维也直接影响了AI对企业软件的重构。未来的企业软件将不再是碎片化的工具集合,而是以上下文引擎为核心,消除臃肿的中间层,让前端界面可以按需生成。这可能是AI对企业运营最深远的一次变革。

Original English

This systems thinking also directly affects the reconstruction of enterprise software by AI. Future enterprise software will no longer be a fragmented collection of tools, but will be centered on a context engine, eliminating bloated middleware, and allowing the front-end interface to be generated on demand. This may be the most profound transformation of enterprise operations by AI.

📌 文中提及的人物和组织

人物: 亚瑟·门施

公司/组织: Mistral, OpenAI, Google

产品/模型: GPT-4, Codestral 2

关键字: ai-commoditization enterprise-ai ai-agent-architecture