美乌同盟裂痕与冬季能源决战：俄罗斯如何借势将乌克兰逼入险境

Natalie Kitroeff: From the New York Times, I'm Natalie Kitroof. This is the daily. The last week in Ukraine has been one of the most dire stretches the country's lived through in more than four years of war. After making an energy deal with Vladimir Putin, President Trump waved new sanctions on Russia and is now openly feuding with Ukraine's leader. Russia is taking advantage of the moment by relentlessly striking Keefe, killing civilians and cutting off power for more than a million people. Today, my colleague Constant Mayu on how the US Ukraine relationship took a turn for the worse and why Putin is now so confident that Russia can bomb Ukraine into submission this winter. It's Monday, October 19th.

Natalie Kitroeff: Constant, thank you for being here. It's wonderful to have you.

Constant Méheut: Thank you for having me.

Natalie Kitroeff: So last week on the show, we talked about this deal that was struck between President Trump and President Vladimir Putin of Russia for the US to buy billions of dollars in diesel from Russia. And we started to think about how that deal might affect the war in Ukraine. It seems as though we have started to see impacts almost immediately in the form of on the one hand the rift between President Trump and President Zalinski of Ukraine widening in public and Russia pounding Ukraine more and more aggressively. You're on the ground in Ukraine, so can you just orient us?

Constant Méheut: Well, it's probably been one of the worst weeks in the Ukraine US relationship since the war began more than four years ago. Since Trump announced that diesel deal, the public exchange between him and Zalinski has really turned hot.

Donald Trump: Zalinski could have settled this war many times. Many, many times.

Constant Méheut: Trump has come out publicly and blamed Zilinski for the current state of the war.

Donald Trump: And we told him, do whatever you want, but don't hit the diesel fuel.

Constant Méheut: He blamed him for the diesel crisis.

Donald Trump: And what does he do? He goes and hits the diesel fuel.

Constant Méheut: And he said that Ukrainians should vote him out of office.

Donald Trump: And I think it's time for Ukraine to get a new president.

Constant Méheut: Silinski at first try to maintain some semblance of count.

Volodymyr Zelensky: It's a big aggressor. Russia only unity can stop them. And of course, United States and Europe can do it. Of course, I'm sure. I'm sure. I I said to President, we can do it very quickly.

Constant Méheut: But then soon enough, he said that Trump actually prefers to strike business deals with Moscow, that he has an affinity for autocrats, and that he felt betrayed.

Reporter: Do you feel betrayed by what has been happening?

Volodymyr Zelensky: really yes really between us.

Constant Méheut: So, pretty strong words. And those strong words come right at the time when Russia is actually expanding its bombing campaign on Ukraine, sending salvos of missiles and drones every other night and using that moment to just pressure Ukraine even more into submission.

Natalie Kitroeff: And as far as I understand it, these have been some of the most severe bombing campaigns in the entire war.

Constant Méheut: Right. Russia is sending dozens of missiles, hundreds of drones in a single attack overnight. They're also targeting Ukraine during the day with plenty of drones. And in terms of civilian death, just in the first week of October, there were more than 100 civilians killed in Ukraine. This is a level of civilian casualties that is among the highest that we've seen since the very first month of the war.

Natalie Kitroeff: So with all this escalation, it sounds like really just in the past week, we are seeing this war hitting Ukrainian cities and civilians on a scale that we haven't seen in a long time.

Constant Méheut: Yeah. Well, for years you didn't really feel the war that much in cities away from the front to take Ke where I live. Um, I arrived there about 3 years ago and sure there were occasional attacks, but it was nothing like what we're seeing today. And the real problems were hundreds of miles away at the front where Ukrainian forces were losing ground to the Russians slowly but steadily. And now it's almost the complete opposite. Things are actually going pretty well for Ukraine at the front because they've managed to stop the Russian advances. In some cases, the Ukrainian forces are even launching successful counterattacks. But further back, behind the front in cities like Kev, Odessa, things have become way more dangerous because of those Russian bombardments.

Natalie Kitroeff: Talk to me about that shift. When did this reversal that you're describing actually begin to take shape?

Constant Méheut: It really began this past summer. So what you have to understand, Natalie, is that Russia has two main ways of attacking Ukraine with ballistic missiles and with drones. And Ukraine began having a real problem in defending against both the missiles and the drones. The missiles, it has essentially only one reliable way of defending against them. Those are the US-made Patriot air defense systems that are supplied by the US, by Western allies, but they're really in short supply at the moment because they're also needed elsewhere, especially because of the war in Iran. And so Ukraine was pushed to the back of the queue,

Natalie Kitroeff: right? And these Patriot interceptors, this is like the only way to defend against a missile attack like this for Ukraine. So suddenly the entire country becomes very vulnerable.

Constant Méheut: Correct. And you can see it here from the ground by just hearing a lot more explosions at night, which is a sign that they're running short of interceptors. That means huge jump in civilian death far from the front in cities including Kev and others that are hundreds of miles from the front. This is something we didn't see before. You also have attacks on warehouses, on uh companies, on ports, on ships that are destroying the Ukrainian economy and that are way more efficient at at doing so than in the past.

Natalie Kitroeff: Do you have a sense of how many of those ballistic missiles are actually getting through?

Constant Méheut: Yeah, at the beginning of the year, Ukraine was intercepting from 30 to 40% of the ballistic missiles, and that gave you a sense of safety. Not great, but safer than nothing. Now, Ukraine is intercepting about 10% at best. And some nights, they're not even intercepting any of them.

Natalie Kitroeff: Wow.

Constant Méheut: On top of this, you have the issue of the drones. So, Ukraine used to be really good at shooting down the traditional drones that Russia was sending. They would use a range of different weapons, machine guns, helicopters, short range rockets. But then Russia over the summer introduced a new class of drones which are called the jet power drones. Now just to explain what this is about.

Natalie Kitroeff: Yes, please do. What is a jet power drone?

Constant Méheut: So up until now, Russia was using drones that were propeller driven. you know, the same way that um you'd have like some sort of a of an old plane um that's powered by propellers, those new drones, they have jet engines, right? Like the ones that you'll find on a plane today.

Natalie Kitroeff: So, just so I'm clear, you literally mean that the drones had like propellers that moved like the way you would see on an old timey airplane and that the new ones have jet engines.

Constant Méheut: Exactly. Some experts essentially say that those jet power drones are like small cruise missiles, right? Like they can fly at about 370 m per hour and that is roughly three times faster than the older drones.

Natalie Kitroeff: Wow.

Constant Méheut: Now, the issue for Ukraine is that the new jet power drones are just faster and incredibly hard to shoot down. And so Ukraine today is trying to come up with a new type of interceptor drone AIG guided also jet powered but these things take a long time to develop and that technology isn't ready yet.

Natalie Kitroeff: Basically you're describing a situation in which Ukraine has very little ability to defend against either missiles or drones and is left extremely vulnerable. I assume you can feel that on the ground just being there, right?

Constant Méheut: Yes. And it feels terrifying for residents of Kev like me, like my New York Times colleagues here as well. That means hearing aid alerts going off pretty much all the time. Sometimes 10 hours, 15 hours um a day, which over time also takes a toll on you. You're on edge. um you're wondering whether you should run to a shelter every time that there's an air alert and for some people whether you're also just going to be the next person killed in one of these attacks.

Natalie Kitroeff: H

Constant Méheut: if you're on the street of Kev during the day you might actually hear the jet power drones flying over you. They sound like a bit like a plane, but you cannot see them. And so you're looking up the sky trying to understand where it is, which to be honest is probably not very useful because they fly so fast that if they're coming towards you, you won't really have any time to realize it.

Constant Méheut: And more and more people are spending their nights in shelters in subway stations um to avoid being struck by those missiles. And when they emerge from those shelters and those subway stations early in the morning, what they see is just the scenes of devastation, really plumes of smoke rising into the sky as buildings and factories have been struck. They see on their telephones pictures of dead bodies in courtyards. It's really a terrifying uh new reality in Ke in other cities.

Natalie Kitroeff: Yeah, it sounds completely horrifying. And for the Russians, what do we know about how they're thinking about the long-term strategy behind all of this bombing that's been targeting civilian infrastructure?

Constant Méheut: Well, we got more insights into this a couple of weeks ago when Ukraine got its hands on a Russian war plan which it shared to its European partners. and we obtained a copy of this plan

Constant Méheut: and the plan lays out very clearly how Russia wants to take this to the next level during the winter. Russia wants to make life miserable for the civilians. They want to strike thermal power plants, electricity substations, hydroelectric plants, boiler houses, you name it. They want to use all kinds of weapons that they have in their arsenal to do that. the missiles, especially the ballistic missiles that Ukraine cannot intercept, the jet power drones and some guided bombs that have had um devastating effects on cities.

Natalie Kitroeff: And do they say the Russians in these plans what the goal of that would be? Are they explicit about it?

Constant Méheut: They do. They highlight three major cities in Ukraine. Keh in the east and Odessa in the south that are homes to millions of people altogether. And they want to cut off electricity supplies for those cities by 90%.

Constant Méheut: Reduce heating supplies by up to 90%. And severely disrupt the water distribution and sewage system in those cities. And remember that this comes at a time when the harsh Ukrainian winter is about to begin. So if they're successful, it could create a terrible humanitarian crisis.

Natalie Kitroeff: essentially bombing Ukraine into a position of potentially needing to surrender. You're saying?

Constant Méheut: Exactly. Forcing people to ask their own government to end the war now. And Moscow sees a real opportunity now because as all of this campaign is happening, they see the deterioration of the Trump Zilinski relation which Ukraine knows makes them really vulnerable at the moment.

Natalie Kitroeff: We'll be right back. Okay. Consant, explain how Ukraine sees this worsening relationship with the US and with President Trump as creating new vulnerabilities right now.

Constant Méheut: Well, there are a couple of vulnerabilities related to the US that Ukraine is really worried about at the moment. The first one is satellite internet access from Starlink, which is this network controlled by SpaceX created by Elon Musk. Now, we all know Starlink as a regular internet provider for millions of people across the world, but there's also a version that is used by militaries which is called Star Shield. And Ukraine has access to it through a contract with the Pentagon. And Ukraine uses Star Shield for all kinds of military operations across the front. We're talking about terminals that are mounted on cars for soldiers driving near the front, that are mounted on ground drones for logistical missions or on flying drones whenever Ukraine is using them to attack an enemy position. So if you have connectivity dropping or simply getting disrupted, it really impacts operations across the entire front line.

Natalie Kitroeff: And do we have any indication that the US deliberately pulled access to Star Shield?

Constant Méheut: Well, the Ukrainian government clearly pointed the finger at Space 6, which is Elon Musk's company, saying that it imposed restrictions on the speed at which those terminals could be used. But then Elon Musk on X said that Star Shield is not under SpaceX's control but is under the US government's control and that if anyone wanted to impose those restrictions it would be the US government and specifically the president of the United States.

Elon Musk: Then of course the message came from government.

Constant Méheut: And then on Sunday, President Zalinski went on NBC and said that the restrictions imposed on Star Shield were a message being sent by the US government.

Volodymyr Zelensky: His opinion of our generals of our government and of course my also opinion they see that it was the message from American government to limit this speed and technically uh SpaceX did it.

Constant Méheut: So he made it very clear that in his view the US government were behind the throttling of Star Shield.

Natalie Kitroeff: And what has the White House said?

Constant Méheut: Well, President Trump came out and denied that the White House was behind the throttling of Star Shield. And he said that he didn't think it was Elon Musk either. So it remains unclear who is really responsible for this. But then beyond just Star Shield, there's another area that has Ukraine really concerned, which is issues that they've been experiencing with early warnings about ballistic missile attacks.

Natalie Kitroeff: Those early warnings, they come primarily from intelligence shared by the United States. That's because the US is the only country that has enough satellites to truly see things in real time. If the intelligence coming from those satellite is not shared with the Ukrainians, that means that the Ukrainians cannot warn their population about an incoming ballistic or cruise missile. And that poses a huge issue also for their air defense capabilities because it means they no longer have enough time to prepare their interceptors to shoot down the incoming missiles. And Ukraine is saying they are not receiving that kind of information which they were receiving before.

Constant Méheut: Correct. For any kind of ballistic missile attack, Ukraine normally would receive intelligence from the US that it's coming. But on two specific occasions, Ukraine said they did not receive intelligence about incoming ballistic missiles. Now, it could also be a technical issue that has happened in the past, but again, President Zilinski has been clear that he believes intelligence sharing was actually deliberately curtailed for a brief period.

Natalie Kitroeff: And what does the administration say about that?

Constant Méheut: Well, the Trump administration completely denies this and says that the intelligence was still flowing to Ukraine. Now from the perspective of people in Kev, people like me living in the city, it was obviously very unusual what happened. You know, usually Natalie, when you hear an air alert, even for a ballistic missile, you know that you have 2 3 minutes ahead of you, which you can use to go to a shelter if it's nearby or in my case, I'd go to my bathroom, to a corridor. But this time I hear the air alert and I barely have time to process it that I'm already hearing the explosion, the impact of the ballistic missile. So that's

Natalie Kitroeff: so scary.

Constant Méheut: Really scary but also really unusual. And I immediately wondered, oh, what's happening now?

Natalie Kitroeff: And what is the impact of these two things kind of you know at a high level of star shield access being shaky and of intelligence sharing they say lapsing.

Constant Méheut: Well first of all I think we need to make something clear which is that the lapses in intelligence sharing or at least this is how the Ukrainians describe it have happened only a couple of times. But the issues with Star Shield, they seem to be dragging on. Ukrainian officials, including Zalinski on Sunday were reporting some disruptions to the drones that are using Star Shield at the front. Clearly, the longer these disruptions continue, the harder it will be for the Ukrainian military. you know, you could have entire military operations being called off and this will also endanger cities like Keefe, which will be even more defenseless against Russian drones. And you know, the one thing that's been interesting to hear from Ukrainian officials is that they say that disruptions lasting several days to the Star Shield system just cannot be simply explained by technical issues.

Natalie Kitroeff: It sounds like they see this as an intentional act, an intentional decision,

Constant Méheut: and also a little bit of a stab in the back. To be honest, Ukraine sees this as a betrayal from the Trump administration because they've essentially agreed to the one demand that President Trump was making, which was that Ukraine should stop its strikes on the old refineries. They stopped the strikes for 3 days and said, "We're happy to do that, but we need also Russia to stop the strikes on our own energy infrastructure." Russia didn't stop. The White House did not react to Russia not doing anything. And so Ukraine is left thinking, well, what have we got in this? You know, we're basically losing our main tool or main lever in this fight, which is striking the old refineries. If we're being asked to stop without anything in return, we've got to just resume the strikes. That's our only lever, which is what they did starting from Thursday.

Natalie Kitroeff: It feels like from everything you've said, Constant, Ukraine has really backed into a corner and there is a lot in Russia's favor at this point. Ukraine has a very limited ability to defend itself. the relationship with Trump is really on the rocks and all of that can only be helpful to the Kremlin strategy of trying to bomb this country as you said into submission. So is Russia right to be confident that its strategy could work this winter?

Constant Méheut: It is right that its strategy could work way more effectively than in the past winters for a number of reasons. They have more sophisticated weapons. The Ukrainians have a serious shortage of air defenses and also the entire power grid has been weakened by four years of war.

Constant Méheut: Which means that a strike today on a power plant will cause more damage than a strike on a power plant 2 years ago simply because you start from a different basis. You know the winter is coming. This is a cold country. You have to imagine people living in apartments where it's freezing cold because the radiators do not work, where they don't have running water because the water distribution system has been knocked out, and where they maybe do not have a shelter nearby to protect themselves from incoming missiles, which anyway they won't know about because there might not be early warnings. On top of this, you have strikes that are also destroying the economy of Ukraine. They are destroying steel plants which provides jobs to tens of thousands of people. They are targeting the exports routes of Ukraine by locating the ports in the southern Odessa region.

Constant Méheut: And all of this means also less money for the Ukrainian budget, which means less money for the Ukrainian war effort. And what do you do if you cannot buy enough weapons? If you cannot pay the salaries of your soldier. So this is sort of a slow burn effort to wear down the entire country.

Natalie Kitroeff: Consant just stepping back if the story of this war has been Ukraine defying the odds being overpowered and then innovating time and time again to hold Russia back. It really feels as though we're at a moment now in which if Russia's plan succeeds, if Russia is able to leave Ukrainian cities 90% without power in a country that experiences months and months of brutally cold temperatures, it's honestly difficult to see how even Ukraine can innovate its way out of this.

Constant Méheut: This is a people that will carry on despite what happens. This is a place where people have been through four winters of war. They know how to stock up on water. They know how to stock up on on gas heaters. They also know how to develop innovative interceptors to shoot down new types of weapons, missiles, drones. This is not a country that will capitulate because of this bombing campaign. Yet, this is the only card that Russia has to play and wants to play. And while it may not force Ukraine into full capitulation, when the time comes for negotiations to properly resume, if this strategy of Russia is successful, Ukraine will be at a weaker position and will be forced into concessions that it wouldn't want to do today. And even as Ukraine pushes through the winter, if it continues into next year without full western military and financial support, it will emerge weaker economically, militarily. This doesn't mean that this is the end of Ukraine. We're not looking right now at the end of the war, but we're looking at a kind of weakening that is potentially irreversible. And that leaves Ukraine with very few options.

Natalie Kitroeff: Constant, thank you so much for your time. We really appreciate it.

Constant Méheut: Thank you, Natalie.

Natalie Kitroeff: We'll be right back. Here's what else you need to know today. Over the weekend, anti-government protests in France devolved into some of the worst riots the country's seen in decades. Demonstrators caused widespread damage to national symbols and buildings across the country, including a government tourist building in Leon and a 19th century city hall in Leoge that was largely destroyed by a fire. 2400 people were arrested and nearly a thousand police officers were injured.

Natalie Kitroeff: By Sunday, when the violence and protests had largely subsided, French President Emanuel Macron appealed for quote order and calm. He said he would seek to lower gas prices, a key complaint from some protesters, but didn't offer any concrete concessions. And President Trump's new press secretary, Katie Zachariah, was forced out of her role on Friday after just 5 days on the job. Zachariah got off to a rough start with her first and only press briefing last week in which she read largely off a script and then she faced an onslaught of headlines about whether she misrepresented herself as a lawyer even though she'd never passed the bar exam. Trump said that he told Zachariah to reconsider her job because she was being treated badly by the media and also said that she might continue to work for him in quote some form but maybe a more pleasant form. Today's episode was produced by Shannon Lynn, Ricky Nevetski, Michelle Bonja, and Eric Kupkkey. It was edited by Chris Hel with help from MJ Davis Lynn and Annie Minoff. Contains music by Dan Powell and Rowan Nemoto and was engineered by Chris Wood. Our theme music is by Wonderly. That's it for the daily. I'm Natalie Kitroof. See you tomorrow.