卓越公司的制胜之道:长期主义、核心坚守与持续创新 Norges Bank Investment Management 2025-05-13

卓越公司研究:长期成功的三部曲

大家下午好。很高兴来到这里。奥斯陆是我成长的地方。今天听到了四家杰出公司的分享,真是太棒了。究竟是什么造就了一家真正伟大的公司?这是一个引人入胜的问题,我为此研究了几十年。我们为此进行了三项研究,并出版了三本书,分别是**《基业长青》(Built to Last: 探讨伟大公司长期成功的永恒原则)、《从优秀到卓越》(Good to Great: 解释优秀公司如何实现跨越式发展)和《选择卓越》**(Great by Choice: 研究在动荡世界中如何成就卓越)。阅读这三本书可能需要不少时间,我希望它们能让您觉得物有所值。

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Good afternoon everyone. It's great to be here. This is a place I grew up in Oslo. Four amazing companies. Tremendous to hear from. What makes a really great company? This is a fascinating question that I spent decades researching. And one of the things we have done is that we have done three studies published in three books. Built to last, good to great and great by choice. And probably Benedetto probably would take quite a bit of time to read all three books. I hope it's worth your time.

那么,这些研究究竟是关于什么的呢?在《基业长青》中,我们旨在探究伟大公司在长期发展中一些持久的原则。我们以美国公司为背景进行了研究,考察了那些历经数十年、甚至超过50年依然屹立不倒的公司。今天我们也听到了其中许多公司的故事。我们使用累积股东回报(cumulative shareholder return: 衡量公司股票在一段时间内总收益的指标)作为衡量标准,并将其与市场及所在行业进行比较。正如您从图表中看到的,许多公司脱颖而出,成为了真正伟大的公司。这是我们的第一项研究。

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So what are these all about in built to last? What we did was to say what are some of the enduring principles of great companies over the long hall and we studied that in the context of United States and we're looking at those companies that have endured for decades even more than 50 years and we heard from many of them today and we're using cumulative shareholder return over the long haul as a metric compared to the market and industry that they're in and as you can see from this graph many of these rise rose above the crowd to become a truly great company. That was the first study.

在第二项研究中,我们提出的问题是:一家优秀的公司能否变得卓越?如果能,该如何实现?当然,并非所有公司生来就伟大,它们需要经历一个转型过程,就像您在这里看到的“曲棍球棒”曲线一样。而在第三项研究中,我们提出了一个不同的问题:在我们今天所处的这个充满变化和不确定性的世界里,作为一名领导者,你该如何应对这些情况,从而使公司成为一家真正伟大的公司,并在长期内取得非凡的业绩?

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In a second study, the question was, can a good company become great? And if so, how? And of course, not all companies are born great. They have to transition like in this hockey stick that you're seeing here. And in the third study, we asked a different question which was in a world full of change and uncertainty like the one we live in today, what do you do as a leader to navigate that circumstance to become a truly great company and attain that kind of extraordinary performance over the long hall.

这些就是我们所做的研究,旨在将我们刚刚从这四家杰出公司那里听到的内容融入到这些研究中。

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So these are the studies that we have done and to sit at what we just heard from these four amazing companies into some of this research.

卓越公司的核心原则

第一个重要特征是,我们必须着眼于长期。当我们思考是什么造就一家伟大公司时,我们谈论的不是三年、五年或十年的短期业绩,而是超越这些时间范畴。我们所有的研究都着眼于此。公司必须经受住时间的考验。我们刚刚听到的这四家公司都经受住了时间的考验。我把它们绘制在了时间线上:Otus(一家公司名)是最古老的,成立于美国内战之前;然后是同样在那个时代的高盛(Goldman Sachs);接着是诺和诺德(Nova Nordisk);我们刚刚听到的最年轻的公司是法拉利(Ferrari),但它也已经有一百多年的历史了。为什么这很重要?因为它们都经历过困境、经济衰退,甚至是大萧条、战争、行业低谷和周期性波动,但它们依然表现卓越。这是第一个特征。

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First characteristic that is important is that we have to look over the long term. When we think about what makes for a great company, we're not talking about short-term performance, three years, 5 years, 10 years. We're talking beyond that. That's all of the studies that we have looked at. You have to stand the test of time. And these four companies we just heard from stood the test of time. I plotted them here on the timeline. Utis being the oldest one founded before the American Civil War. Then we have Goldman Sachs also this era back then and Nova Nordisk and the youngest company we just heard from is Ferrari but is more than 100 years old. Why is that important? They have traversed circumstances of hardship, recessions, even a depression, wars, downturns, industry cycle, and yet they have come out great. That's the first characteristic.

我们需要关注的第二个方面是“与什么相比”。我们不能仅仅观察成功的公司,然后说它们做了什么。在学术研究中,我们称之为只根据成功结果变量进行选择(selecting on the outcome variable of success only: 一种研究偏差,只关注成功案例而忽略失败或平庸案例),这是一种偏见。因此,我们必须审视它们做了哪些与同时期行业同行不同且更好的事情。这些行业同行在当时拥有同样的机会变得伟大,但最终却只是优秀甚至更糟。所以,我们正在寻找的是那些能将卓越公司与优秀公司区分开来的原则。接下来,我将分享其中一些原则,并将它们与我们刚刚听到的内容联系起来。

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The second we have to look for is to ask compared to what. We can't just look at successful companies and say what did they do? In academic research, we call that selecting on the outcome variable of success only and that's a bias. So we have to look at what have they done that was different and better than what industry peers did at the same time. Industry peer that had the same opportunity back in the day to become great but became only merely good or worse. So what we're looking for are principles that separate the great from the good. Let me share a few of those principles and relate them to what we just heard.

原则一:核心坚守与持续创新并存的“二元性”

第一个原则是,这些公司都具有这种二元性(duality: 指事物同时拥有两种截然不同或对立的性质)。一方面,它们专注于维护核心宗旨、价值观和原则,我们今天也听到了这一点:诺和诺德关注慢性疾病,高盛关注客户卓越和伙伴关系等等。这是一个非常明确且长期保持稳定的宗旨。这是其中一个方面。这种二元性的另一方面是,其他一切都开放给变革、进步和不懈的创新,就像我们听到的法拉利和诺和诺德的创新,Otus的飞轮效应(flywheel: 源自《从优秀到卓越》一书,指企业通过一系列相互关联的行动,形成一个自我强化的循环,从而产生巨大动能),以及高盛所做的一切。这些公司都展现出这种二元性。有趣的是,许多公司和领导者常常混淆这两者:什么应该长期保持不变和稳定,什么不应该。

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So the first principle is that these companies had this duality about them. On one hand they focused on preserving the core core purpose values and principles and we just heard that today. Nova Nordisk about chronic diseases, Goldman Sachs customer excellence and partnership and so forth. It's a very clear purpose that remains stable over time. So that's one part. The other part of the duality is everything else is up for change and progress and relentless innovation like we also heard innovation in Ferrari Nova Nordisk the flywheel of Otus everything done in Goldman Sachs right there's that duality about these two companies now what is interesting is that many companies and leaders they confuse the two what should remain constant and stable over time and what should not.

这里有一个例子。多年前,IBM(International Business Machines Corporation: 国际商业机器公司,全球知名的信息技术和咨询公司)的领导层决定,他们的销售团队和员工应该像他们的企业客户一样着装。当时,客户都穿着西装打领带。于是,销售人员也开始穿西装、打领带,最好是蓝色衬衫,这成为了他们的统一着装,因为他们从事的是客户服务业务,目的是赢得客户的尊重和信任。这是一个好主意。然而,几年过去了,客户们,尤其是在科技行业,开始放弃西装和领带等正式着装。但IBM的着装规范却持续了几十年,直到有一天,一位来自外部的新任首席执行官卢·格斯特纳(Lou Gerstner: 曾成功扭转IBM命运的传奇CEO)上任。他走进公司,问员工为什么这样穿,但他们没有一个好的答案,因为30、40年前这是一个合理的答案,但现在已经不再适用。它已经变成了一种教条(dogma: 僵化、不容置疑的信念或原则),一种“我们就是这样做的”习惯。这难道就是穿成那样的文化吗?当然不是。格斯特纳制止了这种做法。这是一种被误认为是文化的实践。真正的文化是客户服务,而那种着装方式只是一种已经过时的实践。这给领导者的启示是:挑战现状(status quo: 现有状态或情况),思考什么应该改变,什么应该长期保持稳定。这就是第一个原则。

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Here's an example of that many years ago The leaders at IBM decided that they corporate their sales force and employees should dress like their corporate clients. And back in the day, the clients were wearing a suit and a tie. So then the salesforce started wearing a suit, a tie and ideally a blue shirt and that become the matching because they were in a customer service business and the idea was to gain respect and credibility with the clients they served. Good idea. Then years passed by and they started dropping the clients started dropping the suit and the tie and so forth particularly in the tech sector. But the IBM dress code marched on decade after decade until one day a new CEO from the outside Lou Gersonner walked in the door and asked why you dressed like that and they had no good answer because 30 40 years ago it was a good answer but no longer. It had become dogma a practice. That's the way we do things around here. That's kind of culture to dress like that. Of course not. Gerson stopped it. That was a practice that got confused by what was the culture. The culture was customer service. But the practice addressing like that was just a practice that had become obsolete. Leadership implication challenge the status quo. what should change and what should remain stable over time. That's the first principle.

原则二:清晰的运营模式与“飞轮效应”

我想分享的第二个原则是,这些公司对自身的运营模式(operating model: 公司如何组织其资源和流程以创造价值并实现其战略目标)有着深刻而清晰的理解。我很高兴今天听到了Otus的分享,因为你们提供了一个绝佳的例子来阐释这个理念。你们称之为“飞轮”。熟悉《从优秀到卓越》这本书的读者会认出这三个相交的圆圈。这些公司之所以成功,是因为它们非常清楚自己能在世界上做到最好的是什么——这正是我们今天听到的高盛的卓越之处、诺和诺德和Otus的能力以及法拉利所展现的。你回答了这个问题,但还有第二个问题,那就是员工对公司、对他们所做的事情、对客户所感受到的热情。法拉利也提到了很多关于员工及其在公司工作的热情。第三点是拥有盈利模式(profit model)或经济引擎。当你回答了这三个问题,你就得到了一个运营模式。

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The second principle I'd like to share is this idea that this company had a pierce and clarity about the operating model. And I'm so glad we heard from Otus today because you just provided a fantastic example of this idea. You call it the flywheel. Those of you are familiar with the book Good to Great, you will recognize these three intersecting circles. What this company had going for them was very clear what they can be the best at in the world and that's what we heard today the excellent of Goldman Sachs what Nova Nordis can do Otis can do and Ferrari right you you answer this question but then there is a second question and that is passion that the employees coming to the working for the company feels the passion for the company they feel passion for what they're doing they feel passion for the customer but in mentioned so much about the employees and the passion that they have coming and working at Ferrari. Then the third thing is having that profit model economic engine. And when you answer the three questions, you get an operating model.

这里有一个例子。在《选择卓越》中,我们研究了西南航空(Southwest Airlines: 美国一家以低成本、高效率著称的航空公司)。这就是他们的商业模式:“长着翅膀的巴士”。澄清一下,那不是一辆真正的巴士,而是我的幻灯片设计师用AI生成的图片。这代表什么呢?他们发现这种运营模式就是从A点到B点:没有花哨的服务,没有奢侈品,自由选座等等。我们只是把你送到目的地。后来许多其他公司也复制了这种模式。从历史上看,这是美国航空业中最成功的商业模式。

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Here's an example. Great by choice. We studied Southwest Airlines. This is their business model. Bus on wings. Just to be clear, that's not an actual bus. That's an AI generated image by my slide designer. What does that mean? They figured out that this operating model is going from A to B. No frrills, no luxuries, free seating and so forth. We get you there. Many others that copy this model later on. Historically the most successful business model in in the airline industry in the United States.

几年前,当时的首席执行官霍华德·普特南(Howard Putnam: 西南航空前CEO)描述了这种模式。他们的运营模式是什么?这是他写在**《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Transcript: 一份专注于金融和商业新闻的出版物)上的内容:“我们只做这些:飞行时间不超过两小时,只使用波音737**(Boeing 737: 波音公司生产的系列双发窄体客机),在登机口停留10分钟,10分钟内完成进出。低票价,高频次,保持乐趣,不提供联程票务(interlining: 航空公司之间互相销售和接受对方航班的机票),不提供食物,运送的是人而不是邮件,不指定座位,行李免费托运。”这是对航空公司运营模式的精彩阐述,对吗?每个人都能理解。作为一名空乘人员,你也能理解。当然,其中一些方面随着时间的推移已经有所演变。你应用“飞轮”原则,不断发展、扩展,并做得更好。但正是这种对我们所做和不做什么的深刻洞察和清晰认知,才真正让这些公司与众不同。

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Some years ago, the then CEO Howard Putnham described the model. What was the operating model? This is what he wrote in the Wall Street transcript. He said, "This is what we do. Under two hours only, you 737s only quicks 10 minutes at the gate, in and out in 10 minutes. Low fear, high frequency, keep it fun, no interlining, no food, people not mail, no seat assignment, bags, fly free." It's a brilliant articulation of an operating model for an airline. Right? Everybody can understand it. You're that flight attendant. You understand it. Of course, some of these things have evolved over time. You apply fly wells, you evolve it, you expand it, you become better at it. But it's that kind of piercing clarity and what we're about and what we're not trying to do that really makes a difference of these companies.

原则三:通过实验驱动进步

第三个原则是驱动进步,特别是公司如何驱动进步。我们研究的另一家公司是美国的前进保险(Progressive Insurance: 美国一家大型汽车保险公司)。有一年,他们决定进入卡车和大型车辆的保险市场。他们进行了详尽的分析,认为这个市场很有吸引力,并决定大举投资。结果却以失败告终,他们不得不因各种原因撤回。几年后,他们决定进入针对安全驾驶员的市场。这一次,他们的方法完全不同。他们说:“让我们进行实验。从小规模开始。先在佛罗里达州从一千名投保人开始,明年再扩展到德克萨斯州,以此类推。”经过三年的实验,他们才弄清楚如何在这个市场盈利,并建立了一个良好的定价模型,然后才在美国各地积极推广。这两种方法截然不同,关键在于,在充满不确定性的市场中,实验具有更高的价值。实验,而不仅仅是分析,能为你提供实证验证(empirical validation: 基于实际观察或实验数据来证实理论或假设的有效性),告诉你什么方法是有效的。

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Third principle driving progress and particularly how did this company drive progress. Here's another company we studied which is progressive insurance in United States and one year they decided that they were looking at the market to enter of insurance for trucks big cars. They did an exhaustive analysis and they figured out this seems attractive and they decided on aggressive investment into that market. Turned out to be a failure and they had to pull back for a variety of reasons. Then a few years later they decided to go into the market for safe drivers. Here they can't the approach was completely different. Let's do experiments. Let's start small. Let's start with a thousand subscribers in Florida. next year Texas and so on. And after three years of experimentation, they then figure out this is how we can make money in this market. We have a good pricing model and then they launched aggressively across the United States. Very different approaches and the key here is that in markets that characterize uncertainty there is a premium of experimentation. experimentation and not just analysis gives you empirical validation for what works.

因此,我们研究的这些公司,以及我们今天听到的创新和实验的例子,我记得在播客中,尼古拉(Nikolai)你谈到了电动汽车,以及你们如何为此进行了多年的实验。是的,实验需要很长时间,你必须有耐心,但这样做会创造一种实验文化。这正是我们在这些公司中看到的:你必须启动大量的实验,包括产品和流程的试点、市场测试、演示等等。然后淘汰那些不好的,并有勇气全力投入那些非常好的,并积极扩大规模。这意味着你必须拥有詹姆斯教授在开场致辞中提到的那种适当承担风险和学习的文化。拥有这种开放的学习态度,并能够建立推动进步的文化。

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So these companies we studied and I think we heard it from today of innovation experimentation but in I remember on the podcast when Nikolai you talked about in electric vehicles and how you have experimented with that for several years right it takes like a long time to experiment you got to be patient but doing that creates a culture of experimentation and that's what we saw in these companies and that is that you got to have starting a lot of exper experiments both in products and processes pilots, test marketers, demos, and so forth. Going to kill the bad ones. Then you're going to have the courage to go all in on some of the very good ones and scale it aggressively. This means that you have to have a culture of appropriate risktaking and learning that professor James talked about in the opening remarks. Having that openness to learning and being able to have that culture that drive the progress forward.

所以,这三个原则是:坚守核心、刺激进步、拥有非常清晰的运营模式,以及通过实验来驱动进步。

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So three principles preserve the core stimulate progress a very clear operating model and a premium of experimentation to drive progress.

驳斥关于伟大公司的常见误解

那么,在我们的研究中,我们没有发现什么呢?首先是:这些领导者是远见者(visionaries)吗?不,这并不是说他们能预见公司未来十年的发展方向。我的意思是,在任何行业中,谁又能预测十年后我们会身处何处,并能指引公司走向那个目的地呢?绝对不是。我们没有看到这一点。

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So what have we not find in some of our research? Well one thing is were these leaders visionaries? No it's not the idea that they could see where the business is going to be 10 years from now. I mean, who can predict where we're going to be 10 years from now in any industry and sort of point the company toward that destination? Absolutely not. We do not see that.

另一个经常被提及的问题是:这些领导者有魅力(charismatic)吗?嗯,有些有,我们今天也看到了,但有些则没有。这并不是一个决定性因素。

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Another one that comes up is this one. Were the leaders charismatic? Well, some were. We saw that today and some were not. It's a nonvariable.

最后,运气又如何呢?也许这只是一种随机漫步,我们看到的伟大公司只是在正确的时间出现在了正确的地点,纯属幸运。我们的答案是:不。为什么?因为我们研究了运气。我们有这些伟大的公司,也有那些仅仅是优秀的、行业平均水平的同行。长期来看,所有这些公司都经历了相当多的厄运和好运。问题在于,你如何利用这些运气?你如何抓住好运并把握时机?你又如何做好准备,以抵御风暴?因此,既然我们身处挪威,我想引用我们伟大的挪威探险家罗尔德·阿蒙森(Roald Amundsen: 挪威极地探险家,首个到达南极点的人)的一句话来结束:“胜利,嗯,我们来了。胜利属于那些一切准备就绪的人。”有些人称之为伟大,但伟大并非偶然运气的产物。伟大是领导者随着时间的推移,为建立卓越的公司文化所做出的选择的体现,正如我们今天从这四家杰出公司那里听到的那样。谢谢大家。

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And then finally, what about luck? Maybe this is just a random walk that the great companies that we see are just we're just lucky the right place at the right time. And our answer is no. Why? Because we studied luck. We had these great companies and then we had the merely good one, the average industry peers. And over the long time all these companies had a fair amount of bad luck and good luck. And the question is, what are you doing with that luck? What are you doing with the good luck and seize the moment? And what are you doing to be prepared to weather the storms? And so therefore, let me then close since we're in Norway, a quote by our great Norwegian explorer Ru Ammonson who said, "Victory, um, there we are. Victory awaits the person who has everything in order. luck. Some people call it greatness is not a function of circumstant luck. Greatness is a function of the lead the choices that the leaders have made over time to build a great company culture as we heard from today of these four amazing companies. Thank you.

关键字: health innovation leadership-choice principle strategy