复盘美国中期选举关键战场：四大参议院席位争夺与政治撕裂

Bruce: All right. Hi everyone. Uh welcome to today's podcast. I'm gonna have an English one. I'm uh recording with uh Professor Ron Pakun. Uh I actually had done previously about two podcasts with you together. Right.

Ron Placone: That's correct.

Bruce: Yeah. So uh Ron is a professor teaching communication in ter business school and uh he's very actually very knowledgeable about the US election. I think you participate in some local elections, right? you were a strategist or

Ron Placone: Yes, I ran a couple of uh state campaigns. Uh yeah, it's been several years ago. I was quite young at the time. It's a young person's game, but yeah, I do have a lot of uh campaign experience.

Bruce: Are you are you the strategist or you you kind of

Ron Placone: I wrote I wrote I wrote materials. I you know I I put together different kinds of in those days we used a lot of brochures, a lot of direct mails and I would write them and you know we would work to strategize where we were going to spend what little money we had, where we going to spend most of our time, what parts of the district. So yeah, there was a lot of strategy in play and and uh yeah, I enjoyed that. I mean, uh, I I didn't want to do it long term, but you learn a lot.

Bruce: Yeah. You did those for the Democrat representative, right?

Ron Placone: Yeah. In both instances, it was a Democrat uh state house and a Democrat uh state senate race. Won the state senate, lost the state house.

Bruce: How different is the state campaign compared to the, you know, national campaign? It's just like different.

Ron Placone: They're they're getting more and more similar in that uh tremendous amounts of money are being poured in. I mean, back in the day, we spent barely nothing. And now some of these state senate campaigns, uh, they're spending around a million dollars in some cases. I mean, it's it's unbelievable to me. And also it's they focus on a lot of the national issues uh transgender some of the same things that we see we're bombarded with and and for many of these uh elections it's who's a supporter of Trump and is that a good thing or a bad thing.

Bruce: Yeah.

Ron Placone: And what will it mean to our particular district? So I think over time uh these campaigns have become very similar local and national.

Bruce: Is that okay for all the money out of state to be poured into the local campaign?

Ron Placone: I I don't think so. And I think it it takes away from what real issues are and the uniqueness that you have in a local uh level. about your particular area that attention and it's not about security at the borders and you know these these are national issues that should be discussed in a national forum and serve as the basis for national elections but they're not necessarily local issues.

Bruce: Yeah. I mean there are like record-breaking money poured into uh Thomas Massie's uh local district. he's only running for a house member, you know, for that district. And uh there's record money put in and he lost. So

Ron Placone: yeah,

Bruce: I I cannot see how it could be be in the interest of the local people there because apparently all this money come from out of state.

Ron Placone: No, I mean it's right now the the money being poured in by mega donors everywhere is just it's crazy. And I think until we do two things, we have to have election uh finance reform and we need term limits. And until we do those two things, I think we're going to just have more and more of the craziness that we are seeing right now.

Bruce: Do you think American people care? because like you know uh when I look at the Thomas Matthews race they don't even have a debate and he's lost by uh you know lost to the money.

Ron Placone: Well that's a very good question. And I I I'd like to think I mean, you know, there was a recent Gallup poll on the issue of corruption and you have 89% of the American people believe that there's that corruption is at an extreme level. You would think that that would then translate into how one votes. And I do think this midterm election is going to say a lot about how much we care about certain things. I mean, if if a candidate like Ken Paxton gets elected, for me, it suggests we do not care about character. Yeah. We do not care about, you know, what what what goes on in that people's that person's mind and in their behavior. we're gonna vote for anyone just because of a party label.

Bruce: Yeah, I I think that's actually a very interesting point like uh you know I actually have a bet on the uh today's Midtown election with my friend and we bet $100 and I think uh Democrat will take the house. Uh

Ron Placone: oh, I think so too.

Bruce: Right now looking at the Kashi, I think I'm kind of 90% chance to win that $100.

Ron Placone: Oh yeah.

Bruce: I may spend $10 to buy the Republican win to hedge that. So that will guarantee me $90. Uh but that's a uh you know uh risk pretty bad, right? Yeah. So uh today's podcast we want to talk about the midterm and actually uh the only thing that both party are really fighting hard about is this four battleground state. Uh those are for the Senate seat. uh actually more important because I think Republican basically give up uh trying to take control of the house. Their strategy yeah is on the defense just lose less hot seat than they expected to be. That will be win and then they want to keep the Senate because keeping the Senate will be very important for uh future appointing the you know cabinet members and all the other

Ron Placone: Supreme Court. I mean go down the list. Uh it it will be a big difference if the Democrats are able to take both the House and the Senate instead of just one. One, I think we we just have a lot of stalemate. I don't think we do much of anything. Uh even if they want to go through investigations of the Trump family, etc., they're not going to go anywhere. Just spin their wheels.

Bruce: Yeah.

Ron Placone: If the Democrats take over both the House and the Senate, then I think there may be a chance to do some things and it it could get very interesting. Uh so, but you know, regardless though, they're not going to take over twothirds and then you have the Fedman effect. You just don't know what John Federman's going to do.

Bruce: Oh, I just hope he sometimes just like retire resign and then

Ron Placone: I don't I don't think he will. I think he's enjoying this uh this moment in the sun where his vote is so pivotal and everybody's courting him to be part of uh their group. You know, certainly Trump's been very overt about become a Republican and he says he has no interest, but when you look at the votes, well, he's voting like a Republican.

Bruce: He's he's a Republican to me, you know, like he basically every single time he went on Fox News uh talking about Democrat and then he's like, "Oh, I'm I'm with Trump. He's defending Trump, right? All that and that." I was like, "Yeah, why didn't this guy just like convert himself to be a Republican? That would be settled the debate. Like, we don't have to pretend he's a Democrat."

Ron Placone: Absolutely right, Bruce.

Bruce: Yeah. So, looking at this full state, right? though the the race that's on the headlines all the time is Texas. It's so important because like Trump win double digit in that state. It has been a you know typical red state and I will be really freaking out if I'm a Democrat like looking at California potentially turning red, right? Like this is

Ron Placone: exactly it's a good comparison.

Bruce: Yeah. Republicans are kind of facing because I think like this is their own fault because they have a very strong candidate but they decide to go with Paxton which is a a candidate a flawed candidate uh at least right like he has all kinds of issues like even his wife his own party tried to impeach him and he had all this scandals uh surrounding him but recently I saw his wife kind of went on the television I think somehow the donor convinced her to stand behind him and she say oh We are voting not just like for who is to be the candidate. We're actually voting on like who will take control of the Congress and uh we we want to stand behind the party line basically not mentioning the Paxton's name. I think she hates him but still like trying to work the line. Yeah, even I can forgive him. Uh you should be able to but again I as a independent I cannot vote for a candidate like Paston. He I think he should be put into jail like stuff like

Ron Placone: and that's what a lot of folks in Texas. Yes. Just the fact that Texas is in play and this comes back to Trump because you know he went after the incumbent senator supported Paxton instead and uh now there's a price to be paid.

Ron Placone: poured so much money into this state and Telerico still holds a slight lead and he's the only one willing to go on to do the the the town hall meetings. He's the one that keeps pushing for a debate. Paxton has no interest in doing that. Now, if I were advising Paxton and I'm down in the polls, you should be out there debating. You just can't count on you're gonna win this because you're the Republican in Texas this time. Maybe not.

Bruce: But I think he still have a money advantage, right? Like pulling all kinds of money. Elon Musk is like throwing

Ron Placone: Elon Musk's is a lot behind. Elon Musk has put a ton into taxes. Uh yeah, they've been really opening up the big the purses big time. But you know, Teler Rico has done a remarkable job of grassroots fundraising, the best in the country. I mean, he really has support from everywhere. And the guy is a formidable candidate because his his religious background appeals to some voters in Texas. Yeah. Even though, you know, Paxton will try to say that uh he hates Telerico hates Christianity and this bizarre stuff for a guy in Teler Rico that's studying to be a Presbyterian minister, but he's just and he does a good job of articulating his positions. Now, I wish that Paxton would debate him because I think it would be a fun one to watch.

Bruce: Yeah, definitely.

Ron Placone: But I I don't see that happening. I think uh Paxton will probably play, you know, like Trump's playbook, just not not debating and then pouring all kinds of money there and try to hope all the uh poorly informed voters will just bleed all the ads propaganda and then vote for him. I I plan

Ron Placone: they're trying everything under the sun from attacking, you know, the guy's masculinity.

Bruce: Yeah. made up all kind of rumors like he's went to the hospital to see a psychiatrist and all the Yeah.

Ron Placone: And you know what was interesting? U it's bad enough that was just a fabricated story, but now the way Fox News was reporting it, it was well and why did he wait so long to share with the New York Times the the timestamp video that clearly showed that he was sick at his house, you know. So now there's this wondering why he waited. Well, maybe he has other things on his mind as he missed nine days on the campaign trail. He needs to be out there and the last thing he needs to do is to to spend time debunking nonsense that was put out there that it's a shame though how people just make this stuff up and there doesn't seem to be any consequence for it.

Bruce: Yeah, I think uh Republicans are trying everything. Stefan Miller is uh also stepping in. Like that's crazy because you're uh right now in the White House and you try to uh interfere with all the election result.

Ron Placone: Oh yeah. I I think that I think a lot of what we'll talk about here is based on the assumption that this will be a fair election. And I do think there is reason to worry about uh voter suppression.

Bruce: Oh yeah.

Ron Placone: what what might happen afterwards to mail in ballots. Uh you can see there's, you know, Trump's going after California today. Yeah. Over mail in ballots. And I just think that I think the Republicans know this is probably going to be rather ugly for them. So what is their plan B? uh to try to uh you know challenge results and to try to do whatever they can to make sure that the uh outcome isn't what they don't want.

Bruce: But I think uh I'm less worried about this because Trump is not on the ballot, right? Like if if Trump's name is on every ballot, I think it's highly likely. But like Trump doesn't care like Trump is already in the state.

Ron Placone: He does care to the extent and I agree with you to some extent. Sometimes I've been wondering, is he trying to sabotage the election? I mean, some of the stuff he has done makes you scratch your head and say he is, does he really care? But he does care and that he knows his life is going to be very difficult if the Democrats take over both the House and the Senate. I mean, people like James Carville have predicted that he may step aside and not even want to deal with it. I mean, who knows? But, uh, and supposedly he has put money aside to essentially defend uh, Baron and Melania should they become part of investigations as they will.

Bruce: Yeah. But I I think it's it's going to be very challenging because this year like you know Trump's second term all the cabinet member are not you know traditional uh bureaucrats they are Trump loyalist loyalist right?

Ron Placone: Yes,

Bruce: just look at the Epstein file, right? Like your your attorney general uh Pon Bondi, he basically refused to release all the Epstein file and lied about it and there's nothing her she just she got fired. But like the new uh AG, he's uh Trump's personal lawyer. So I just think like Trump probably doesn't care even though you win like both House and Senate. What can you do? Like all the executive branch all my

Ron Placone: Oh yeah, you're you're right. You're still limited because still much goes to the Supreme Court. Yeah. And he's still winning too many things from the Supreme Court because he still pretty much has the Supreme Court in his hip pocket. Yeah.

Ron Placone: So, uh you're you're right, but I just think he knows his life will be made more difficult. Plus, he's all about legacy and how things look and and while he will pick out certain scapegoats as to why and he will plead, hey, people still love me, they just don't love these candidates.

Bruce: Yeah, exactly.

Ron Placone: He has to know on some level that this is a pretty bad reflection on him.

Bruce: I mean, he he's not totally stupid.

Ron Placone: I mean, he does know. I mean, he can say all he wants about fake polls, but this guy is driven by attendance, polling, uh, you know, what what what you get when you have a television show, what what rating, what market share do you get? He knows where he's at. It's not pretty. He'll deny it. He won't own it. He won't acknowledge it, but he knows.

Bruce: So I think right now looking at this uh four states right like I think Texas really has a has a chance but a lot of money had been porting that state try to uh you know make up stories and make those AI videos about him like and trying to convince those uh Republican voter to vote for the party member. Yeah. I don't know. I I I think it's it's tough to win a Senate seat in Texas like

Ron Placone: Oh, no question. the traditional red state and even though you have a flaw candidate, but like it's such a hard thing to do.

Ron Placone: Well, one of the things we're starting to see though, Bruce, and this is something in the state of Pennsylvania that has always been common, and that is ticket splitting. In in Pennsylvania, often um someone would vote for one candidate uh one party for governor and the other party for Senate. a ticket split that is becoming more common nationally. And it seems like when you're looking at some of the polling in Texas, it appears some of that may be going on and the Republicans may win the governorship

Ron Placone: but not the Senate. There may be enough ticket splitting. And I also think in terms of reasons to be optimistic, um, Trump got just enough out of Latinos and young young folks to carry him through and he's lost that support.

Bruce: Oh, it really pissed them off.

Ron Placone: Definitely. So, if that support goes to Ter and they get out to vote, that's the, you know, Jasmine Croc, she's, you know, she needs to help getting the AfricanAmerican vote out. I mean, it's it's one thing to look good on the poll in the polls, but you've got to get your voters to the polls that day or have them do the mail and ballots for it to mean anything.

Bruce: Exactly. Um the second state, Michigan, I think that's a seat a Democrat must held because that's used to be a Democrat seat, right? So, right. Uh I think uh as he is a very talented politician,

Ron Placone: yes, he is.

Bruce: I think he has a a small lead now like plus 2.7. So uh the prediction prediction market gave him about 60% chance I think. Oh 68% chance. So the odds kind of rising a little bit of winning that seat. So that's a mustwin seat for a Democrat if they want to take control of the Senate.

Ron Placone: Yeah.

Bruce: Because that used to be their seat. So for the Texas uh right now it's about 62 to 38. Um so I I think on the prediction market you have a much bigger probability but again like I think the porting lead is only about like plus three something around that. Uh but again you have to think about Trump is winning like double digit on this uh in this state. So basically Tarico was able to overcome that uh additional right. So uh that's a very strong

Ron Placone: in history. I mean, in a state like Texas, there's just a long history of of being red and you know, he's not just overcoming Trump, he would be overcoming trends. I mean, Better Ror, he tried, he wasn't successful. And so, it's uh but if if ever there is an opportunity for a Democrat to win in Texas, it's now. I think that's the Democrats have a a a candidate even though they label him as teleico and this and that but this guy is articulate and the Republicans have a candidate I think you said earlier I mean this guy has more baggage than than probably any other candidate running in the midterm election. So this is a flawed flawed candidate.

Ron Placone: Michigan's a little different. I mean, I do think both of these candidates have uh their strengths and their their their weaknesses. I mean, I think Alad is a very very good campaigner. He's got the affordability issue on his side and he's hitting hard at it. Yeah. I mean it it you know and um and Rogers as is he's a Trumper and you know and El say's portraying him is if you want a a sock puppet for for the Trump administration and for the Iran war well vote for Rogers. Yeah. But that's not what I'm going to be. But then the question becomes

Ron Placone: how liberal is too much liberal? I mean you know and that's what he's he's fighting. I mean it's here interesting when you look at the polls here where how did the Democrats identify the democrats identify more as liberal than they did 101 15 years ago.

Bruce: Interesting.

Ron Placone: But when you ask them about Z uh are you somewhat liberal or very liberal the majority are going to say somewhat liberal. If you ask them, should the party go further to the left? Most are going to stay stay about where it's at. So, there's still this tendency toward the moderate rep, still on the liberal side, left to center, but uh we'll see. And they're certainly trying to hit him as a you know, a jihadist financed by terror organizations. Uh, but you know, I I think when when I read interviews with people, it seems like a lot of people are looking past that stuff

Ron Placone: and are actually thinking on their own as to who might represent me, who might fight some of the corruption that seems to be so widespread now. Yeah. And and and I'd like to think some of the voting is going to be done based on that and not oh well I hear he's a communist or he's a fill in the blank how we want to label people. I think people are going to hopefully be smart in this election and evaluate candidates character positions policies and likelihood they're telling the truth.

Bruce: Yeah. I think like uh the right wing try to picture him as you know uh Muslim communist terrorist.

Ron Placone: Exactly. That's exactly and they pretty much say that.

Bruce: Yeah. Uh you know hates America. You know it's the old hates America. Um

Bruce: I think they tried to do that with uh Zora and Danny but they failed. Uh miserable.

Ron Placone: Exactly. And again, there's some similarities in that these are fairly charismatic politicians, uh, know how to use social media, know how to present their Yeah. wellucated.

Bruce: Well educated. Yeah.

Ron Placone: And, uh, that's very formidable for some of these folks who maybe, uh, aren't as skilled as campaigners. And then you know again in the corporate I mean yeah second time I mentioned James Carville but I just get a got a kick out of how he described Rogers as a a pharma tool that that the pharmaceutical industry pretty much has him in their pocket. Yeah. and and you know that doesn't again I think you you've got the Iran war hovering over things Trump himself hovering over things and the corruption issue

Bruce: and also like I think the big bill for bill kick a lot of people out of the health care system right

Ron Placone: no question yeah no question so

Ron Placone: and tariff tariffs tariffs have been ugly for so many states including Michigan Yeah, tariffs have not been good for Michigan.

Ron Placone: So again, when you when you look at these individual issues and the headwinds that these Republicans face because of the Iran war, because of tariffs, it's really difficult, I think, for some of these Republicans hero for the Republican incumbent. I think that's uh that's that's a fact.

Bruce: So for the Alaska, I think that looks a little bit interesting, right? So Alaska. Yeah. Yeah.

Ron Placone: Yeah. I mean, I think Alaska is a very interesting I mean this is a three term Well, he's running for his three third term, the Republican Sullivan. And just the fact I mean, yeah, they haven't voted for a Republican uh or a Democratic in presidential election since 1980. Yeah, it's been 20 I think 2008 since they have elected a Democratic Senate. It's been all Republican. Trump had 54% of the vote in 2024. Yet Trump makes a trip there two days ago. Yeah.

Ron Placone: Because right now right now the um the Democrat uh Mary Pelo is is leading in the polls. And I mean this is this is amazing. But again, Alaskans, they're very independent. They have a um they have a decency streak and they're very bothered by the the elite and the corruption that is in uh DC. And certainly uh they're not thrilled with how we're dealing with Canada.

Bruce: Yeah. And trade war with Canada.

Ron Placone: That's a big issue. It's a big issue there. Now, Trump, he's trying to, you know, talk about oil and gas drilling and and this this deal, this investment from South Korea uh to go into a national uh gas project in Alaska. So, he's trying to make some of the promises. I mean, at at most of his rallies in these states, he's trying to make some promises, you know, that may or may not happen. And again, I think people are wise to these promises when they look at what was said in 2024. And when he talks about giving us $5,000, you know, they think about, well, gee, I'm still waiting for the Doge check. I'm still waiting for the check from the tariffs. And so people are skeptical and and rightly so. But, you know, I think the Democrat I think she has a a good shot. Even though again, this is someone running for the third term. You would think he would be a shoe in here, but he's not. So, it's a microcosm of how much support Trump has caused the Republican party to lose.

Bruce: Yeah. I think this is a referendum on the current administration, right?

Ron Placone: I do.

Bruce: The funny thing is like you see like their Republican has two Solivan candidates. So like they they had another like a retired teacher also registered as a

Ron Placone: oh another Sullivan, right? Yeah. That's that that has happened in Pennsylvania. They changed that law finally. But in Pennsylvania we ended up with a teacher one year as lieutenant governor. Yeah. Because the governor and the lieutenant governor ran separately. Yeah. And there the name Casey uh used to get a lot of votes here from a Scranton family and we just recently had a senator Bob Casey. His father was governor. Yeah. So there was a Casey that ran that was not part of this family. So he got elected lieutenant governor. I think he was a school teacher. So yeah, strange things that have happened. And the way they they do the voting in Alaska Yeah. caused two Dan Sullivans to be in the final four.

Bruce: Yeah. The last one is Maine. So, this is a Republican incumbent Susan Collins, right? Like she's pretty popular in the state and she's running for reelection. Uh this is like the smallest margin. Like the recent poll has a Jackson up a little bit, but like the market kind of give Jackson about 57%. So, it's basically a coin flip. say

Ron Placone: if if there's one I think that the Republicans out of these four are most likely to win. I mean, any of these states could go either way. They're all pretty much within margin of error, but Maine is the one where I think there's a chance where Collins hangs on. I mean, she's getting hit hard on rising costs, 3.7 inflation, cost of of gasoline. her initial support of the Iran war. So, there are things that are definitely hurting her campaign, but

Ron Placone: uh you know, he's been the the the Democrat Detroit Troy Jackson, he's been very aggressive with her, uh tying her with corruption and and some charges maybe have been a a little bit extreme based on how she is uh perceived and understood by others. Uh, so I think this is going to be a real real close one. It's gotten kind of ugly. A number of these have gotten rather ugly. Certainly Michigan is ugly. Maine's pretty ugly. Taller's not been ugly, but I think all the things that's been thrown at him, including this week, uh, Vance, you know, making a a a homosexual slur. Yeah. Caler Rico. But this has been rather ugly. And uh Collins has wanted apologies at times and um she calls him a liar, Jackson. So yeah, it's kind of an ugly race. I think Collins may hang in here though. Uh but if the Democrats are to take over the Senate, I think they're going to need Maine.

Bruce: Yeah, I I think uh even Democrat win this four seats, right? like Philip, Texas, Alaska and Maine and whole Michigan that's still one seat short. So that's the reason I think uh winning the Senate is really challenging for the Democrats but they they definitely had a shot at it Republican seat.

Ron Placone: Yeah.

Bruce: Um but I think a lot of issues nowadays like the data center has become a key issue.

Ron Placone: Oh my god. Right. Like

Bruce: the the the governor is become uh in play because of that because like the uh the current governor is pro data center but nowadays he started to change his positions. He say oh we're going to put those into review and

Ron Placone: Oh you mean in Pennsylvania?

Bruce: No no in both Pennsylvania and Texas.

Ron Placone: I think uh both got there's a lot of flip-fpping on that issue. that you had a lot of uh political leaders who were in favor and then they saw the polls and how people viewed it and all of a sudden they backed off and now I've been trying to uh appeal to the voters by saying, "Oh no, data centers are bad. Not for us." Uh so yeah, they've kind of tried to have it both ways and we've seen a lot of flip-flopping on that one. For Michigan, the Canada tariff is a big part because like all the parts, all the things and power bills.

Bruce: Yeah. Data centers huge. Alaska, it's uh fuel and fish and the permanent fund all the things. You know, these are the main issues

Bruce: for Maine. Healthcare Canada trade. I think a lot of people are pretty pissed about the healthc care change, you know, like the they're healthcare because of the Trump's new policy.

Ron Placone: Yeah. And this this stuff with Canada though, I I think it is, you know, especially as you get up in places like um Michigan, Maine, Aladd, I mean, this stuff matters how we interact with the Canadians. Mh. And I I think the the this whole uh trade war, people don't understand why. They think it's it should have never happened. And they're looking to hold I think somebody accountable for it. And in some ways, it maybe some of these Republican candidates will be the one. I mean, hey, Trump has said how many times? Pretend I'm on the ballot.

Bruce: Yeah. Well, I I I think some people are going to pretend and that may not serve the Republicans well. I think the problem is like he's not popular. He he didn't realize that. I don't know if he living a echo chamber because his approval rating is uh breaking his own record like historic

Ron Placone: close historic lows. Uh there's no question uh every poll imaginable uh is showing just very just much higher disapproval than approval rating. You know I

Bruce: I think he still want to uh you know refer to his old playbook in the past. You know he's very popular in Republican party. Uh so if people want to hold the party line pretending him on the ballot would be probably helpful for that. But again, like this year, he is incumbent. He's on the he's he's a current administration and he his policy basically screw up a lot of people's lives. So, I think a lot of disfranchised uh voters will use this opportunity to really punish him. At least that's what I'm thinking about.

Ron Placone: I agree with you. I I do. And even with his base though, he has lost some support and you know, not the diehard Omega, he's not going to lose them. But those that were kind of on the fringes, he's losing a healthy percentage of those. Or those that kind of migrated toward them because they just didn't like the direction of the Democrats and thought he was the better choice in 2024. Many of them are retreating and saying, "You know what? This isn't what I sign." I mean, it's amazing to me that when you look at approval of Trump's performance, he doesn't even get high marks on immigration.

Bruce: Yeah. Yeah. I think like uh I see a brutal video of I see killing US citizens on the street is not helping, you know.

Ron Placone: No, no, not at all. there's a way to do things and a lot of people think that the the way that it's been done is not not what we want.

Bruce: Uh but again that that actually puzzles me because I can see this coming in 2024. How could all this voter never see this coming? Like they didn't know about Trump like they didn't see what he is planning to do when he get into office. Like I just feel really disappointed in the democracy because like I as a starting here as a foreigner like I can see that coming uh way ahead of time. I don't know like English is not even my first language you know like I but I I see this coming. I I hate to say it but I told you so like when you

Ron Placone: I hear you. Yeah. I hear you loud and clear. Well, that was, you know, we went uh my wife and I went overseas uh about a year and a half ago and uh when we were there, we were through Italy and Greece and the number one question people had was, "How could you have elected him a second time?" You know, it was almost like, "Okay, the first time you kind of fell for it. You thought it was a fresh refreshing train. He's he's changed. He's going to drain the swamp. But the second time after that insurrection, why would you elect that?

Bruce: After he handled the answer. Yeah. After all, he handled the co he all the lies he talked about like, "Yeah, you can drink all the bleach."

Ron Placone: Exactly. Yeah. I mean, I don't know the answer. I I didn't know what to say. Just like what you say, it I just I think how could we not have predicted? How could we not have seen it? And for some people, they're still reluctant to see it, but I I'm hoping that enough have that it's going to impact the results of this election.

Bruce: Yeah. Uh I I I really hope so. Uh I I think like this midterm will be a testing moment for that. Like if if this midterm we still get like Republican control of the I I may not vote again like in the future.

Ron Placone: I know it would be very disappointing. I just I can't see the Republicans keeping the house. I I don't like you say there are races they have just backed off of. Yeah. Both in the House and a couple the Senate.

Bruce: They give up. They want to concentrate on the resources. Yeah.

Ron Placone: Yeah. So they're really channeling in and the states we've listed here are four of the states for Senate that they're really focused on.

Bruce: Mhm. Well, the AI actually it kind of becomes the main running point. Um a lot of Republican they are pro data center because you know uh the tech billionaire donated money.

Ron Placone: That's where the money's going.

Bruce: Those tech bros. Uh so it it's a difficult uh election point because uh you know uh a lot of people doesn't want the data center. So

Ron Placone: twoird people don't. Yeah. I mean you're you're talking not just the slight majority you're you're talking close to seven out of every 10. Yeah. The other that's that's a tough cell. I mean, when you look at the issues that we're questioning on, uh, the economy, inflation, the Iran war, I mean, the Republicans are on the defensive almost every one of these because popular opinion is on the other side of where they're at right now. Yeah. Or at least where their leadership's at.

Bruce: I think they're going over going through the same uh issues Biden administration have. you know at that time the inflation is still high uh and also you know the squeeze on the uh everyday working class is like really tough but Biden want to talk about look at the stock market it's like making new highs look at all the great policies who are doing they just don't want to admit that uh how people feels are quite different from your headlines so I think Trump probably face a bigger hurdle because now the economy is even worse and he promised he want to do all those things but he breaks them all. So I would expect a certain like if you follow the political news you should be pissed. Uh if you're not you should not you have no other people to blame but yourself like you didn't take actions to correct this.

Ron Placone: I agree. No, I yeah, I see a lot of similarities in terms of how the economy is discussed between, you know, Biden administration 2023, 2024 and the last year and a half of the Trump administration. Well, especially since the Iran war.

Bruce: Mhm. So, right now, I want to look at Texas. We already talked about this before and you know, Texas is a tossup. Uh Trump winning this uh handsomely in 2024 by 13 points. So that's a huge win. And Ted Cruz win the Senate by 8 to nine points. So that's still a big margin. Uh but now Tyler Rico is leading plus three. Still within the margin of error, but like that's not a good sign for Republican when Trump win double digits. Like basically you have a much bigger swing than that. Like you know Trump's 13 plus the three. So you have a like I guess almost a 17point swing. Um the other thing we already said like you have a 20-year incumbent candidate. You just dump him and then you got this uh really flawed uh candidate. So Trump already spent three trips in a month like try to visit right uh Texas because I think the Republican are really worried about this uh this race. I think Telerico has a pretty good issue to run on like the you know affordability and religion all the things you know he basically fit in the classical Republican profile for the perfect candidate right like if you tric wrong as a Republican he'll win immediately I think

Ron Placone: yeah so that's that's the reason why he has a such a high chance like so I I really want to watch this one live uh when we're cutting. Yeah, me too. Yeah, it's going to be the big one. The other thing about him and and I believe in this day and age where there's so much negative campaigning and madeup stories, you have to be if you think of a a boxing analogy, you have to be able to counter punch. Yeah. Ter Rico is very good at that. uh he's able to bring points back to his message while hitting a I mean instead of um you know he would embraces the Teleico nickname. I mean he's had shirts made and he sells them and that's his biggest selling item. Uh this whole he doesn't eat meat. I mean he's proudly eating barbecue and you know his girlfriend is what a former staffer. Uh, so you know they everything they try to attack him on it doesn't they don't stop but he's punching back and then he I like what he said about when they said we want proof of life you know because he was he had the flu and he said I want proof of spine from Ken Paxton. I want him to debate. So show me proof of spine. Yeah, he is really good. He counter punches well and you need that.

Bruce: He is such a strong candidate. I mean like I just wonder why uh Democrat couldn't have some strong candidate like him in the national stage for the presidency like every time.

Ron Placone: Well, who knows? I mean, we don't know yet. I mean certainly one of the things that we saw as a change for the Democrats is you have more religious types running as uh Democrats this year. There's a number of pastors and so you have people you know because it seemed like um the Republicans had tried to paint the Democrats as as the communist communist party. atheist and and now you have a little bit of swing. And I think Telerico shows that you can be a progressive candidate, but you can also appeal to different different constituencies. I mean, again, this is this if the Democrats win this, part of it will be because of how flawed Paxton was as a candidate, but I think part of it is because of who Tel Rico is as a candidate. And I think there needs to be uh some learning here. Yeah, we need to learn from Democrats need to learn from it.

Bruce: Yeah. Um I think this risk is still uh in play and we'll monitor this uh closely. The data center is definitely a important issue and I think uh as a incumbent you have a problem because like all the data center are built under your watch and you approve them. So uh that's the reason why the government race the governor race become in play like I think the abbot is uh freaking out because of the poor data right. So I I recently saw there's a leaked audio like Paxton was talking about the Abbott's approval.

Ron Placone: He's been he's been talking about everybody blaming everybody even blaming his wife for doing tax return or his ex-wife for doing tax return. Yeah, this guy Yeah, there's been what at least four uh leaked audios and and he's not looked good in any of them.

Bruce: Mhm. So I I I think um it's likely to be the situation you mentioned like there may be a split, right? I bet when the governor but Paxton lost the Senate. So that that's kind of interesting scenario to look at. Uh still I think it it's hard to win in Texas as a Democrat. It's a it's a traditional red state. So it's very diff very difficult to change people's mind even though like yeah people for people stay in the party line all their life it's very difficult like they probably just not voting but they ask them to vote for a Democrat that that would be uh very tough um definitely so for the Michigan I think u is very strong candidate and uh it'll be interesting to look at like Michigan used to be like you know it's always a purple state or swing state so right anything could cabin, right? So, let's see. It's always close in Michigan. It is. It's always close to Michigan. Right now, the gap is a little larger than I would have expected. Um, you know, I think I'll say it's going to win this. I I think it's going to probably be closer than what the polls currently indicate. Yeah, I think it's going to be a couple points. Definitely. The next one, the the governor race, uh, it's kind of leaning Democrat. Um but Benson has a very high chance to win like poly market gave him 3% chance. So uh yeah I I think because uh the current governor is very popular in the in the state. So yes yes you're talking yeah Michigan governor.

Ron Placone: Yeah. Yeah. Whitmer. Yeah. Yeah. Absolutely. She she's she's been a hey remember she was considered um you know outside chance to run for president. I mean she was popular in Michigan. Yeah.

Bruce: Yeah. She's a stronger candidate than uh Kamla Harris. Yeah. Looking back on that one that Yeah. I I just think a lot of time talking about what happened there. Yeah. I I just think uh Biden just shoot himself in the foot. Oh yeah. When he kind of narrow his uh selection for the VP, narrow down that and also limit himself to the limited options. So that's that's Biden's fault. I'm I'm blaming Biden for that. Like uh the last

Ron Placone: Hey, we all a Yeah, we What was it in Trump's he's talked about Biden over 400 days in office or something like that? Yeah. Yeah. B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B's just the the whipping boy for the Trump administration, you know.

Bruce: Yeah. You saw the video like he showed the tour with President Xi in White House and then he his picture and then the middle of Biden is auto pan like

Ron Placone: Yeah. I mean, how how disgusting, how disrespectful, how uncivil. It's it's just appalling to me that that's the behavior of our president.

Bruce: Yeah. So, uh, for Alaska, we already talked about this. Uh, it's it's a tie race, but I think the current, uh, challenger, uh, actually had a good chance. So, she does. I mean, in there, I think it's above a fivepoint uh, lead right now. She seems to be a pretty good campaigner. And, you know, I think Sullivan's just maybe tied too much at the hip to Trump, and that's not playing well in Alaska right now. So the governor race um I think the the JKT he has about 77% chance of winning it. So uh yeah it's kind of interesting because right right now it's three Republican against one Democrat, right? But you're you're voting in a ranked way. So how Yeah, that's that's really interesting. Um, someone say like Alaska's uh voting system is better than the, you know, like winner take all. I don't know. What do you think? Yeah, I hear different arguments on both sides. I'm not sure, you know, whi which is ultimately better, but uh to me it still comes down to you're electing one person and you know, so either way could get you there. And you know, I'm sure there are good arguments on both sides. So for the main uh Senate seat, right, like uh uh Sudan Collins, right now he's facing the challenger uh Troy Jackson. Uh you know, the original uh primary winner Planter, right? He had personal issue, right? Like a sexual assault allegations and he even though he denies it, he quit. Do you think Democrats should just keep him because he is a strong candidate? He win the primary there and you know Trump has a sexual allegations, sexual assocations and even convictions, he still runs.

Ron Placone: I know I I you know the purist in me feels like when we know these kind of things about a candidate, it should disqualify them. At some point you have to say

Bruce: but the Democrat you know Republican voter doesn't care like why would that

Ron Placone: yeah I hear you Bruce I do I mean what what you are saying right now makes some sense for me personally I was glad that they pushed him out but I could I understand what you're saying. I do.

Bruce: Yeah. I mean I'm not saying like I I want him to run. I'm just like asking the question because I think No, it's a good question. Yeah. Why why the Democrat need to be the purist and be this moral leader but Republican can do whatever the they want and then still at the the candidate. Yeah. Yeah, you're right. Yeah. I think I think uh there's certainly a moral decline in the general American society like you know someone this this kind of people in the past is unimmanageable but now you know uh even I would say like in Trump's era even watergate happens like nobody would take it as a big deal right

Ron Placone: yeah you're right I I can't disagree with you again you know going back to Texas I I think that's one of the things that we're going primary example, right? like Pex is is there a point where we say no this person I cannot see and you know see that's what his ex-wife was saying she was saying hey even if you don't like this person we need them to win for control so uh but to me it if we're supporting a person like that that speaks to I think who we are

Bruce: yeah I I agree I think character matters like I think the politician need to be a role model because like he's given such important uh power so much so much power right like and he will be representing the voters if he doesn't have a high moral standard like how how would you trust him like yeah he would be crushing as corrupted as hell like this is the current administration you know like

Ron Placone: that's so true yeah so that'll be interesting see to watch Uh but I think uh Susan Collins has a better chance than other candidate, you know, other Republican candidates. I I agree with you. I think she, you know, she's had a decent reputation and um yeah, certainly the initial support of the Iran war hurts her. Uh some of the tariff issues hurt. Um but she's got a shot. It's going to be another close one. It's going to be a close, you know, it comes down to who gets the vote out. who who who gets their vote out and that that will determine.

Bruce: So, professor, what's your final verdict on the on this four state? Do you think uh Democrat will win all four of the state and win another state? So, they will take control of the Senate.

Ron Placone: If if I had to bet on these four, I would say the Democrats win three out of four. Uh it wouldn't be surprised. I wouldn't be shocked if it was four out of four. won't be shot. Maybe if it's two out of four. Uh but I'm I'm thinking three out of four here. I think the Democrats do have a shot at taking over the Senate, but you know, if it ends up being so close that Federman's somewhat the swing vote that that that maybe doesn't change anything in the Senate.

Bruce: Yeah, that's true. Uh but again, I think um whatever the outcome of this uh midterm, uh I just want to have RFK Jr. be impeached.

Ron Placone: I can I can take that. Yeah. Hey, we don't need any more measles cases.

Bruce: Yeah. He's like really making me great again, you know, in America. That That's shocking.

Ron Placone: Yeah, I completely agree. Yeah, he's done wonderful things to make us healthy again. Yeah.

Bruce: Yeah. I think that he's he's a primary like the the the number one guy they should impeach even though other uh cabinet member are also bad you know

Ron Placone: H he is in the running though too. Yeah. Hex and also like the catch Patel you know those guys. Yeah. There's there's a long list actually.

Bruce: Yeah. But but recently I saw like uh Hex was uh talking about streaming the execution of of a you know uh criminal and I think Trump caught it off. I think that's a good move because it's going to be a disaster. You know like the other countries kind of still do that. Uh yeah absurd disaster you know those countries. Not here. Not here. So even Trump couldn't take it. Uh that that that's

Ron Placone: right.

Bruce: Yeah, I I can't wait. I cannot wait. So, it's about two weeks from now, right? Like uh yeah, it's getting close. It's first first Tuesday of uh November. So, we're getting close. That that'll be really exciting. So, uh I I think those are the risks. Uh we should keep an eye on this four battleground. Republican is pouring lots of money like Elon is uh you know donating Oh yeah.$200 00 million in this like which is about 300 million so far. Yeah. So I I wonder where is Elon's uh American party like last year he was like yeah I'm going to party and well I guess he made up with Trump. I guess he's made up, you know, and he he didn't talk about the Epstein files anymore, you know, like the uh I really think uh when Democrat win back the house, they should make a big deal of this abstin foul. I think they will. This is uh Trump's Achilles heel. So, he apparently doesn't want to talk about it and he won't cover up for it. He'll say it's a dead issue. Yeah, they should ping this forever on him and Trump's second term will be pinged as the abstain term. So, uh I I want the voter remember they elect a pedophile pedophile protector. That's like a more accurate uh definition. It is to the party and uh cover up for those class. Yeah.

Ron Placone: Well, Bruce, we covered a lot of ground here, didn't we?

Bruce: Yeah. Yeah. super excited to have this conversation with you and uh let's just keep eye on this uh midterm elections. Uh sounds good. Yeah. So, if you're interested in uh those political uh takes and also how to communicate better, please uh follow uh Professor Ron Pukun's channel. I'm going to put the handle in the description. No, he teach about the communication, how to communicate as a executive in the business settings and and he's I think you you're still teaching class, right? I am. I I I still teach uh a class for MBA students. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So hopefully one day you can put some of your teaching videos. I think it will be beneficial for

Ron Placone: Yeah. I have about 120 videos now on uh Professor R.J. Plleone on communication excellence. So I hope give it a shot. see what they think. always a pleasure, Bruce.

Bruce: Yeah. Hopefully we can do another one like uh when we get to the 28 election, you know, like the exciting looking at the primaries, you know, like which party will have a strong candidate coming out of the primary.

Ron Placone: It's going to be an interesting ride. Awesome. Thank you, professor. Talk to you later. Take care, man. Byebye.