Good morning everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the market open. We are live. It is Tuesday, December 2nd. Looks like markets are green. Looks like markets are green. We are getting a little bit of a rebound. We're going to see if this rebound can actually hold, but we are getting a bit of a rebound right here in the pre-markets as we end up going green.

Now, yesterday it kind of felt like the markets really wanted to go green. Unfortunately, you had Bitcoin fall from 91 to 83 and that kind of made it hard as Bitcoin is a bit of a risk-on indicator for a lot of these other risk-on assets to go green. But you got Bitcoin right here rebounding from 838 to 87. You had Nvidia breaking 181. It broke 180 yesterday. 181.75 in the pre-markets. That's up 1.09%.

You had some companies that have some amazing earnings yesterday like [ __ ] 23%. On the day they beat EPS by like 40%. It was quite incredible to see uh some of these EP EPS beats. And then you had Krdo that's up 15%. So you had some decent earnings yesterday. We have some more earnings today after the bell. Service Now is up. Rocket Lab's up 1.3%. Netflix is up. Apply Digital's up again. Door Dash, this company was up 3% yesterday. An insider bought a hundred million dollars worth of stock, which was quite incredible. You usually don't see those types of insider buys. Amazon up another 1% today. Amazon was at 255 before November, you know, now it's back at 230, fell all the way to 219, maybe comes back to that 250 level by end of year. And then pounder right here is up 1.096%. Hoodie is up 1.5. S&P up 26.

So, it definitely does seem like there's a shot for us to go green today. Get some of that momentum that we had last week uh from Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. question is going to be are the headlines strong enough uh and is the essentially rate cut expectations going to be enough that gets the market to still feel we have a shot. We are now at 87.4% on rate cut probabilities. Uh this number was 86.7 yesterday. It's the highest it's been in weeks. So the fact that it's up even 1% from yesterday I think is signaling to the market there should be a good shot for that rate cut. And you know the Japanese bond yields we talked about it yesterday. Although I think it's an issue, I don't know if it's like a structural issue that fundamentally ruins the basis for us to have um a rally towards the end of the year and maybe that's how the market is kind of pricing that in right now.

So, we got a lot to talk about, a lot to get into. We have a bunch of different headlines this morning that I think are really, really interesting. Um Michael Dell is donating $6.25 billion to the Invest America Act. And we'll talk about kind of what happened uh with Invest America. For those that don't know, this is basically a policy in the big beautiful bill that Brad Gersonner kind of ushered through, CEO of of Ultimate Capital that gives $1,000 to every newborn child uh in America and directly puts it into the S&P 500. I love the initiative. The fact that it was a bipartisanship uh agreement I thought was incredible.

You know, like it's hard for Democrats, Republicans to everything, but like our kids knowing that they have a little bit of Nvidia, a little bit of Amazon, and that being a motivating factor to get them to learn about financial literacy is a very big deal. So, we got that update. We'll talk about uh we have official Black Friday analytics and it's pretty damn incredible across Shopify, Walmart, and then the overall aggreate uh Black Fi Friday, Cyber Monday. Let me know in the chat if anyone bought anything for Cyber Monday, but we have a lot of numbers to look at. And it's quite incredible if you make the argument that the consumer is devastated. The consumer is probably weak, but looking at these Black Friday numbers, if unless all of it's on credit cards, it doesn't feel like it's that weak. So, we'll talk about that as well.

Uh, and then we have some geopolitical updates. Got a lot of stuff happening in Venezuela. Again, I'm still not fully up to date on this story, but Trump spent time last night tweeting a lot of stuff about it. So, we'll go through it and see if it has any other implications towards the towards the end of the year.

>> Absolutely. It's a very special moment. We're making a $6.25 billion investment in America's kids through our charitable funds. >> Next year, every American child will be able to get an investment account powered by Invest America. >> We've seen what happens when a child gets even a small financial head start. Their world expands. >> The real power of these accounts is that anyone can contribute. Parents, relatives, friends, everyone can help shape a child's future. >> To philanthropists, companies, community leaders, if you want to be part of something truly meaningful for our kids, for our communities, for our country, join us. >> And to parents, and caregivers, stay tuned and get ready to activate your child's account. Every contribution can grow over the years just like your child. Together, we can make possibility something every child can count on. >> And that's a future worth investing in.

Anyway, here's Brad Gersonner about uh about this announcement.

>> Fix things. Give money to the people who need it. How do you then give them the tools to understand that if I continue to invest in this, if I continue to put money aside, save instead of spend, this is where I wind up. >> Well, the place you start is they actually need to be able to open their phone and see that they have a little skin in the game. Right? If you don't have anything and your parents don't have anything, it's hard to get excited about learning about financial literacy, stocks, etc. Now, everybody's going to have that. 30 states already require a semester of financial literacy. I expect and you will hear some announcements in the months ahead about efforts at the state level financial literacy threaded in public education because now the teacher can say open up your phone open up your invest America account let's talk about how those stock what it means to own a stock let's talk about the compounding let's talk about what it would do if you added another 20 bucks a month to that account so I think it gives us a platform for literacy and education around finances that we desperately need in the country

>> dude I love it I I genuinely love it. I mean, when Brad introduced this idea, uh, I think it was like a year ago and then he got it passed through the big beautiful bill, I thought it was a phenomenal concept and um, I don't know. I I think it makes a lot of sense. You need to have skin in the game. I think all of us understood that once we had even a dollar of a stock uh, which for me literally was like a dollar of a fractional share of a company um, back in 2018, I felt like, wow, I I own part of this. And that is just unbelievably empowering as a paradigmatic and philosophical concept.

So the fact that we are starting this off, I mean, I can't believe we haven't done this earlier than now. But the fact that it's happening, it's only three billion bucks a year. I mean, that's nothing. We spend more on, you know, renovating parts of the White House. So like, the fact that we're doing this, I think, is going to be very important. and every kid for the next 5 years and hopefully this continues to extend is going to get those thousands and see the power of compounding.

So, not only did Brad Gersonner talk about his thoughts on just Invest America, but he also gave some thoughts on the market. Again, he is heavy on this AI trade. Here is what he had to say about where the state of the markets are as well.

>> We're coming up on the third anniversary of Chat GPT. We've come a long way fast. Um, you know, you've seen Nvidia add almost $200 billion dollars of revenue in the last three years. >> Truly extraordinary transformational phase shift. uh super cycle going on in our economy. It added 100 basis points to GDP this year, but remember this year we had two 25% draw downs in in Nvidia. >> Right. And so there's going to be volatility when you're early in these phase shifts, right? That's that wall of worry prevents the bubble that everybody's worried about. And when you look at the multiples today, take Nvidia for example. I think it's trading at 23 24 times fully taxed earnings on next year's numbers. 18 times on 27 numbers. That is not the stuff that bubbles are made of, right? >> I think the rest of the mag 7 all trades somewhere between 25 and 30 times. Um maybe meta is at 21 times uh earnings. So to me, taking a little of the gas out, having some of these uh uh you know, conversations and debate very healthy. Um, and what I see out there right now is a tremendous amount of progress on the model side, but I think the diffusion, how the rate at which this transforms lives, both consumer lives and enterprise, that takes time.

>> Well, yes, and that's what I was going to get to. Is the new version of Gemini better than ChatgPT? >> It's terrific. It's terrific. Remember a year ago we were counting uh you know Google out of the equation. I've said on Twitter and otherwise we own Google. Yeah. Um I've said it's very difficult to pick a winner here. So you can own them all. You can own OpenAI and Enthropic. You can own Google uh and and Microsoft. Um and I think at this phase you know you probably should do that. I think Google's done an incredible job. >> That that's great for the technology spending. There are a lot of questions about what this means for the business world too for enterprise. Um, yesterday Jensen Wong was on SWAT on the street with Jim Kramer talking a little bit about that deal that they did with Synopsis. That was pretty interesting to hear how it's got to be able to be used by these big industrial companies to be able to really make the next steps. And Jensen made the point that I thought was really interesting that 90% accuracy is okay if you're dealing with consumers. It is not okay if you're in any of these big enterprise issues. >> That's right. That's right. Think about it this way. The machine that builds the machine, right? That's really what he's talking about. We saw that with Tesla and Elon, right? Elon used to talk about we can't get to where we need to get to with electric cars until we first build the machine, right? A totally new way to manufacture cars that can drive down the cost. And that's what you see Jensen talking about, for example, in the design of chips, right? That you really imbue the entire industrial economy with AI. And all of those benefits lie before us. I think we're going we're heading into a very significant productivity boom. I've talked about the golden age of margin expansion for a lot of industrial and other companies in America that can simply do more with less.

>> You're talking about the winners that came out of that. There was a lot of volatility in Pets.com too. And by the way, those companies went bust >> and there are going to be companies in this cycle that go bust. There are a thousand companies in Silicon Valley valued over a billion dollars that are trying to raise money. It's not going to be equally easy for all of them, right? But I think that's part of the process of creative destruction, right? It's okay that you know that some companies aren't going to make it. >> We talked earlier this morning about some comments from Masasan who said that he didn't want to sell his entire Nvidia stake, but he had to in order to be able to put it into OpenAI. You've got bids on bets on both of those companies. Yes. What do you think about that? >> I wish my bet in OpenAI was as big as MASS, but you know, you >> would you sacrifice your Nvidia bet for it? >> No. Like I like I said, Nvidia has been an extraordinary winner. We invested in Nvidia in December of 22, right after we saw Chat GBT. The stocks up over 10 10 times uh 10x over that period of time as the revenue went from roughly $30 billion a year to over $200 billion a year. And they just told us that we should expect a run rate by the end of next year of hundred billion. And this is at the same time that Broadcom is doing extraordinarily well. What Hocktan has done partnering with Google to build out TPU7 is extraordinary. That's going to force Nvidia to be even better. So I think we've seen a lot of a lot of winners and you can see from the logos that Alttimeter owns. Our choice has been really to own a lot of the best names that are benefiting from this super cycle.

Morgan Stanley did a report for their clients yesterday for their Asia customers or from their Asia contacts that buy Nvidia chips and they said we believe the customer's biggest anxiety for the next 12 months is their ability to procure enough Nvidia product generally and Vera Rubin specifically and then they said we continue to have an unwavering belief that Nvidia will have the best economics for most applications. Essentially, the market's worrying about a bubble and Morgan Stanley's like, "Dude, when we talk to customers, they're not worried about a bubble. They're worried about just getting the chips because they know how hard it is because of the backlog that Nvidia has."

What you're seeing here is a divergence between a lot of the high beta names like a Big Bear AI that got up to like 8 850. That's not easily getting back there again. Same thing with Hood not easily getting back to 150. Pounder not easily getting back to 200. Tesla not easily getting back to 460. And so you're seeing some of these names kind of recover their momentum. And I wonder, you know, when Tesla does get back to 460 or AMD does get back to 260, does a big bear get back to 850? When certain stocks make their all-time highs, do some of these other names, is an Oaklo ever get back to, you know, 198. And if that doesn't happen, I think that's the market just saying we needed a flush out. We had a lot of things that were running. Uh a lot of those runs didn't make a ton of sense. When you looked at the earnings growth, we flushed everything out, which was painful for all of us, even if you own some of the most important companies and not just the pure high beta names. And those companies theoretically should come back because their earnings matches their multiple whereas some of these other names might not have the firepower to come back, which is okay.

I mean take a look at a couple of charts right here just on the concept of data centers. You've had a lot more analysis done as well. This is from A16Z AI data center capacity. In the United States data centers are getting really big really quickly specifically from using natural gas. Morgan Stanley put out another report this morning as well. They think that most of the gap gets bridged, the gap between energy and the ability to actually get these data centers online uh by time to power solutions rather than the normal grid Q. You had a Wall Street Journal piece yesterday saying that construction jobs are starting to come back at a massive pace and the reason for those jobs coming back is because to build out data centers, you need a lot of workers and we don't have humanoid robots yet to build out the data center.

There's another chart right here saying that gigawatt scale data centers can likely be built in two years or less. Again, that would take a lot of jobs to be able to make it happen. And if that's the case, Nvidia, Nabius, a lot of these names associated with the trade probably still end up being some of the some of the better names even in the midst of concerns of an AI bubble. And Brad Gerson was also right that you need those concerns. Like you really need those people being so scared of an AI bubble to get things to go higher because if everyone was euphoric in video, it would be $300 right now.

AMD has announced an expanded partnership with HP to develop the next generation of open scalable AI infrastructure. HP will be one of the first providers of the new AMD rack scale. Okay, that also probably explains why AMD is getting some love right here in the pre-markets.

Robin did announce ISAs are going to be coming January 26 to the UK. So for all the Brits out there that have been holding off because Robinet didn't offer an ISA. Uh looks like they are getting that done and that's going to be very exciting. The other big announcement uh yesterday from Robin is that prediction markets have now exceeded 9.5 billion contracts, three billion alone in October or sorry in November uh which is up 20% from October. Uh, and they're having a new event on December 16th. It's going to be online and it's going to cover AI and prediction markets. We thought it was just going to be an AI event, but it's actually AI and prediction markets. So, it seems like they're taking prediction markets very seriously. The growth is obviously incredibly rapid. And if crypto volatility is bad next year, and we don't have a crypto run, there's another source of revenue now that can maybe offset that with prediction markets.

Uh, Venezuela update on Venezuela. So, Trump tweeted a lot of stuff over the night on Venezuela, including like some AI videos of Maduro. Let's get an update on what happened with Venezuela and then we'll talk about some of the implications of that as well. This is actually the the tariff update, but we'll talk more about Venezuela in a bit. But this is also really important and potentially implicates Venezuela. So Costco is suing the Trump administration about tariffs and we're going to get the Supreme Court deal on tariffs probably by the end of this month as well.

Costco is asking the US Court of International Trade for a declaration that collecting tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, as the Trump administration has done in many cases, is actually illegal. and the company wants an injunction blocking further duties as well as a full refund of all tariffs paid under the statute this year. A White House spokesman said yesterday, "The economic consequences of the failure to uphold President Trump's lawful tariffs are enormous, and this suit highlights that fact."

So you have two kind of narratives from a Venezuela perspective which would be bad for oil and then from a Trump tariff perspective that could potentially be good for the markets because I don't think the market ever liked tariffs but be counterintuitive for Trump's negotiations that all were contingent on tariffs as the lynch pin. are those enough to create more bearish sentiment in the market? No. I think it creates more uncertainty and confusion which could lead to uh some bearishness. But the Fed cutting rates and the earning cycle I think is enough to overpower it.

so Black Friday, what happened? Walmart's Black Friday. These numbers are kind of crazy. 57% more orders from stores on Black Friday this year than last year. 44% more orders delivered in under three hours. The fastest delivery on Black Friday arrived in just 10 minutes. Uh AirPods generation 4 and the 55 inch high sense 4K TV were some of the largest sellers for uh Walmart and Walmart marketplace set a new single day conversion record with PlayStation 5s and Laboos apparently flying off virtual shelves.

But uh Black Friday sales were incredible. I mean just incredible. So you're seeing the Walmart numbers right here. We're going to get the Amazon numbers probably a little bit later today. Uh they did say that Rufus, their LLM, was helping them s in a sophisticated way really influence customer decisions. And then we saw the the Shopify numbers where we had 25% year-over-year earnings, not earnings growth, sales growth, 6.2 billion and 32 million requests per second for Shopify's API. I mean, these are just incredible numbers. I feel like we're challenging this consumers week narrative and it's important important to challenge that narrative. If you have the data that shows that maybe the consumer is not as weak as we think.

Even uh Adobe Analytics came out today and they said uh 44.2 billion was spent during the 5day Thanksgiving shopping period, which is a record over these 5 days. So, it it just it just feels like there's a lot more momentum and growth in the consumer, and that's not necessarily the the worst thing in the world.

So, I think the takeaway from Paul Atkins as he's talking about making IPOs great again is that he is going to do whatever it takes to continue getting the market to be in a strong position. And they're basically three things that we're looking at to try to make IPOs great again. One is to modernize our rule book to make sure that our regulations are fit for purpose uh to help small companies and large companies uh attract capital. Second is to look at our litigation situation uh you know with respect to you know the strike suits and and other sorts of frivolous um actions that really impede I think uh you know people from wanting to be public and then finally the corporate governance uh issues that you were alluding to.

Now, the the big mystery is are we still going to get quarterly earnings calls next year? Uh the SEC did propose that we would have them only two times a year. Hopefully, that proposal is not taken that seriously and they kind of just forget about it and, you know, maybe say, "Oh, maybe that's not the best idea." But if they do take it seriously, that could be a major change for 2026. I don't think it's likely. If it were to happen, I think it would be 2027 at the earliest because that's a big change for companies.

also people that are saying Bur is short Tesla, uh, I don't think that's confirmed. Uh, there's a fortune headline this morning saying Bur short Tesla. Uh, but from Bur Substack, he never said he was short. He just said Tesla's ridiculously overvalued. I think you know the psychoanalysis on Bur that that we talked about last time like yesterday he posted a letter from 2008 that he said it's actually a really good letter. I think he really wants to experience that again. Um there there's this line by uh American philosopher rapper Drake. Actually, he's Canadian as well. So Canadian, this is this is this is one of the reasons I I I love Canada. But he said uh sometimes I would like to go back in life not to redo things but to experience them twice. And so and that's a very profound line when you think about it because a lot of people have regrets in life that they want to go back and redo certain things in their life so that they can change the trajectory of how their life turned out. You have this Canadian philosopher coming out saying I don't want to go back to redo it. I want to go back to relive the experience and feel it twice. And I think I I I think that's what Bur is going through right now. I think he wants to relive being on top of the world.

And that's why I think he's getting so aggressive here. The depreciation argument, again, I I I've started to look into I really think the depreci depreciation argument is stupid. Like, I really do not think that's a meaningful argument. So, I don't think that's going to be the one that gets him there. Maybe there's something else. Now, he's talking about Nvidia stockbased compensation. I'm like, I don't I don't know. I don't think those are the best arguments.

Amazon just unveiled that its newest AI chips are now available for customers. Is Amazon having a live stream? Are we do we have Amazon live anywhere? Yeah, these announcements are definitely getting the market to be more excited about Tranium. The fact that Amazon and Apple are making a move right here. Again, I don't think this is bearish in video, but nonetheless, the headline is always going to be thought of as bearish in video. Bitcoin is also pumping. Are we at 92? No, still at 91. We hit 91.2. Did not hit 92 yet, but it's trying to get there. Wow. Bitcoin ETF's volume on Vanguard hit a billion within the first 30 minutes. Oh, that's that's a big update.

It was like the rest of the country. It was in disrepair. One year ago, our country was dead and said to me by many leaders, we had a dead country. Now we have the hottest country anywhere in the world. The stock market is set 46 all-time highs. And this last Friday, which is called Black Friday, was the biggest ever online sales that there's ever been by a lot. More Americans are working today than in any time in the history of our country. I mean, these are the facts we have to get out. Next year is projected to be the largest tax refund season ever. And we're going to be giving back refunds out of the tariffs because we've taken in literally trillions of dollars.