《纽约时报》重磅民调解析：民主党掀起中期选举蓝色浪潮与共和党半十亿资金反击

Michael Barbaro: From The New York Times, I'm Michael Barbaro. This is The Daily. With fewer than 50 days until the midterm elections, a major new poll from The Times suggests that Democrats have a real shot at winning control of both chambers of Congress as an unpopular president insists on making the election all about himself. And yet, serious obstacles remain in the Democrats' way, including a half-billion-dollar financial advantage for Republicans. Today, I talk about all of that with three of my colleagues, national political correspondent Shane Goldmacher, White House reporter Maggie Haberman, and chief political analyst Nate Cohn. It's Wednesday, September 16th. Hey everybody.

Maggie Haberman: Hello.

Shane Goldmacher: Hi.

Nate Cohn: Hello.

Michael Barbaro: Maggie, Nate, Shane, welcome to the first midterm election roundtable for the general election.

Maggie Haberman: We really like to slice the salami really thin when it comes to the superlatives for these roundtables.

Shane Goldmacher: the assistant to the assistant regional manager.

Michael Barbaro: Exactly. That's what this roundtable is. The first midterm election roundtable for the general. By which I mean, the primaries are over, both parties have picked all their nominees, and now in 48 days to be exact, control of the US House and the US Senate will be determined in hundreds of elections across the country, which is going to be the subject of our conversation today. Nate, I want to begin with you

Nate Cohn: Please.

Michael Barbaro: because as we sit here on Tuesday, The Times just within the past few hours released a major new poll about these midterm elections. Top line, what did you all find?

Nate Cohn: Top line, we found Democrats well positioned to make major gains this fall. They led Republicans by nearly nine points in the race for Congress. And that's wave territory, which is the kind of election where one party sweeps the other party out of the most competitive states and districts.

Michael Barbaro: When's the last time we had a wave election with the kind of numbers that this poll found? Nine points up for Democrats.

Nate Cohn: It's almost exactly the same as the Democratic margin from 2018, Trump's first midterm election. And it's larger than other recent wave elections in recent decades like 1994, 2006, or 2010.

Michael Barbaro: 1994, just as a reminder, was the year that Republicans swept into office. Newt Gingrich became House Speaker, a huge historical moment for Republicans. In 2018, a huge historical victory for Democrats.

Nate Cohn: That's right. Now, how this big national advantage translates into control of the House and the Senate is a little more complicated, but you would absolutely say that the Democrats are favored to take the House, and they would have a real chance to take the Senate as well. Where they have a real uphill climb, but with this kind of national advantage, they would have a a serious chance to put the red states they need into play.

Michael Barbaro: Okay, Shane and Maggie, please react to this pretty important new development in the way we think about these midterms. Shane, you go first.

Shane Goldmacher: I mean I just sit with this poll for a second, which just has so many bad data points both for Donald Trump and for the Republican Party. We asked a series of questions, which party do you see as more elitist, more extreme, more corrupt? All are bad for Republicans, and I think the elitist one is a particularly rough one. This is a term that the Republican Party has used to cast the Democrats as outside the mainstream. And the idea that voters see the Republican Party under Donald Trump right now as more elitist.

Michael Barbaro: Can you translate that? Why elitist?

Maggie Haberman: It's tied into the ballroom potentially. It's tied into the lack of empathy for people's cost concerns, eggs, groceries, gas. People are hearing nothing about that, and instead they are hearing about this big project, like a ballroom, or renaming something.

Shane Goldmacher: Yeah.

Maggie Haberman: And so this is the challenge that Trump is facing right now. And he seems disconnected from voters.

Michael Barbaro: This poll Matt, am I right to say suggests the fundamental appeal of this president, as an anti-elite, populist, man of the people, has totally fallen apart?

Maggie Haberman: Yeah, I don't know that you ever want to say totally with him because obviously he has such a large, devoted base of supporters. But the way he reached beyond that base in the past was by presenting himself to some degree as a fighter for the people who felt forgotten. And when they see him building ballrooms and doing all these things, it's hard to make that case.

Michael Barbaro: Mhm.

Maggie Haberman: Voters can see it.

Michael Barbaro: And yet I submit to this table despite the president being a clear albatross on his party in these midterms, he's not shying away from it. In fact, he had this really striking moment at a rally in Ohio. Let's listen.

Donald Trump (audio): So, on election day, November 3rd, you got to do me a favor. You got to get out and vote, and pretend that I'm on the ballot. Because if they win, they're going to destroy everything we've built.

Michael Barbaro: He asks Republicans, candidates, voters to pretend he's on the ballot, intentionally. And then he goes a step further.

Donald Trump (audio): PLEASE RAISE YOUR RIGHT HAND. I PLEDGE TO THE GREATEST PRESIDENT IN THE HISTORY OF OUR COUNTRY DONALD J TRUMP.

Michael Barbaro: The president asks this crowd to make a pledge to him, not to the country, not even to the Constitution.

Donald Trump (audio): And we are going to vote on November 3rd or we are GOING TO VOTE BEFORE THAT.

Michael Barbaro: And Maggie, what strikes me is I think it was our colleague Lisa Lerer who once wrote, Trump's message in midterms is effectively, every Republican on the ballot is a surrogate for Trump. Maggie, isn't that the exact opposite of what Republicans need?

Nate Cohn: Nate, does Maggie write that this might be the Republican Party's best strategy because they have no other choice?

Nate Cohn: They don't have many cards to play. Fundamentally, they have to try and keep Republican turnout high.

Michael Barbaro: Mhm.

Nate Cohn: When the Democrats are up eight and a half points in the generic ballot, that means there is a huge wave against Republicans nationally. But if Republicans can turn out their core voters, they can at least hold the line in red states.

Michael Barbaro: I want to explain that cuz I think that math gets tricky for people. You're saying, in a place like Texas, which is normally 10 points redder than the country as a whole, if Democrats are up nine nationally, Texas suddenly becomes a toss-up?

Nate Cohn: Exactly. So, if they want to hold down their losses, it is plausible that in a Texas, if you can maximize the Trump turnout, the Republican can still survive.

Michael Barbaro: Which is somewhat conceivable.

Nate Cohn: Which is conceivable given this national environment and given that in many of these states the Trump base remains solid.

Michael Barbaro: Shane, I want to talk more about the Senate map in particular and the potential paths for Democrats.

Shane Goldmacher: Right now the Democrats would have to flip four Senate seats that are currently held by Republicans. Assuming they hold everything else, they're looking at North Carolina, they're looking at Texas, they're looking at Florida, and then having to defend in places like Ohio and Montana, while holding Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania.

Nate Cohn: Favored in the polls in both those places.

Shane Goldmacher: In both of those places and then you get into this trickier territory that Nate has alluded to which is a series of states that are normally red, but are suddenly in play.

Maggie Haberman: Well, you also just raised an important point, which is that we have been hearing since January from Trump's top advisers that he was going to be out on the trail relentlessly, doing non-stop political events.

Shane Goldmacher: like political

Maggie Haberman: Yeah, exactly. And that really has not come to pass. And so he has done sporadic events. He has appeared in battleground states far less than expected, and his focus has been pulled elsewhere.

Shane Goldmacher: feel like he needs to.

Michael Barbaro: Right. So friends, I want to bring all this together and ground it in a particular Senate race. And I'm going to suggest Texas. In past cycles, Republicans won this by what, 14 points?

Nate Cohn: 14.

Michael Barbaro: 14 points. Not a place that Democrats rightfully have really much of a chance and yet it's quite competitive. How does Texas become competitive?

Shane Goldmacher: I mean, I think for Democrats to win somewhere like Texas, it has to be all of the above. So, if Democrats are favored by nine points nationally, combined with suburban shifts and high turnout, that gap closes fast.

Michael Barbaro: Nate, I know our poll was national, but what did you glean about the Texas Senate race from it?

Nate Cohn: I thought there were two things in the poll that made me want to see a Texas poll afterwards.

Michael Barbaro: Mhm.

Shane Goldmacher: One Do you know anybody who could help with that?

Michael Barbaro: [laughter]

Nate Cohn: Um one was the demographics. I mean, Donald Trump is very unpopular and Republicans are doing poorly, but they are getting crushed in specific groups.

Michael Barbaro: and with Latino voters?

Nate Cohn: With Latino voters was 43 points. With young voters it was almost 40.

Michael Barbaro: Wow. A group that went disproportionately for Trump in 2020.

Nate Cohn: Almost voted for Trump in 2020. The Latino vote was a single-digit race according to the exit polls. So, this is a huge swing back.

Michael Barbaro: Right. I I just want to say, for the record, cuz I've been hosting this show for 10 years, done a lot of politics, and every time someone says Texas is in play, I'm skeptical.

Maggie Haberman: Maybe.

Nate Cohn: [laughter]

Shane Goldmacher: I'll say yes. Sure. I will all say yes.

Nate Cohn: I think this is the first time where I think if you just take the numbers on its face, the Democrat would be as likely or has a real shot.

Michael Barbaro: Well, I think in a nutshell, this is the story of how Democrats could theoretically take back the Senate. But, when we come back, the biggest obstacle in the Democrats' way: money.

Michael Barbaro: We'll be right back.

Michael Barbaro: Nate, Maggie, Shane, welcome back. Beyond the difficulty of winning a bunch of Senate seats in red states, no small task, Democrats face another massive hurdle: money. Shane, break this down for us.

Shane Goldmacher: Yeah, I mean, when you talk to Democratic strategists, probably the number one concern that comes up right now is money.

Shane Goldmacher: The RNC alone has $130 million more than the DNC. And then the big thing is Trump has a super PAC that has $400 million.

Michael Barbaro: talking about half a billion dollar financial advantage for them.

Shane Goldmacher: And we're not done because Elon Musk is going to spend at least another $100 million. So you're at $600 million. And this money is going to be spent in these closing weeks.

Michael Barbaro: Holy cow.

Shane Goldmacher: in these closing weeks. And so one of the questions has been would Trump actually spend this money? And he has begun to do that with massive ad reservations.

Michael Barbaro: Before we get to the use of this money in a race like Texas, which I do want to come back to, do you have a sense, Maggie, of why Democrats are struggling so much with fundraising?

Maggie Haberman: Democrats have been struggling with fundraising for quite some time. I don't think that they have ever totally recovered from donor fatigue and frustration.

Shane Goldmacher: People don't like spending money and finding out it didn't get results.

Maggie Haberman: People don't like being told for 2 years that all is well and then it very visibly, through the magic of sight, was not. They are seeing that there's much more virtue in giving to the president whose revenge is a given if he's mad at you, than giving to Democrats.

Maggie Haberman: So, all of that has added to a massive war chest that Trump has never took his foot off the gas on. He started fundraising immediately.

Shane Goldmacher: fundraising a message that is lacking.

Michael Barbaro: right other than we're not Trump

Michael Barbaro: Shane we started to get at this but let's really dig in on how and how well Republicans are spending this $600 million mountain of cash.

Shane Goldmacher: We don't fully know how they're spending it because these ad reservations are literally coming in day by day. What we're seeing is a massive flood of attack ads.

Michael Barbaro: Okay, let's turn to what Republicans certainly hope ends up being another big Democratic vulnerability which is this summer's focus on the far-left wing of the Democratic Party.

Nate Cohn: The best thing Republicans can try to do is make this election about the Democrats because if people are thinking about Donald Trump, Republicans lose. But if it's about the Democrats, they have a shot.

Michael Barbaro: Uh I mean

Shane Goldmacher: Pick one. Yeah, go for it.

Shane Goldmacher: I mean, the actual person who used to be a Democratic Socialists member is well, Lawrence, a more left-wing Democrat who has become a major target in GOP ads.

Maggie Haberman: He's not technically a Democratic Socialist.

Shane Goldmacher: You know, the entire message for the right is don't elect these Democrats, they're scary liberals.

Michael Barbaro: Right. So, in other words, Republicans, because of the DSA dynamic, get to pursue a strategy that's not a pitch for why Republicans are great, but why Democrats are dangerous radicals.

Nate Cohn: Well, I think that the poll provides plenty of evidence that this is like the best card Republicans can play.

Michael Barbaro: Maggie,

Maggie Haberman: There's one aspect too, and I don't want to dwell on this, but that we haven't talked about, which is what's happening in places like the Michigan Senate race.

Michael Barbaro: talking about the Michigan Senate race.

Maggie Haberman: I'm not only talking about the Michigan Senate race because part of what I mean, yes, in terms of the map, I am, but in terms of the issue around energy consumption and artificial intelligence data centers. It's causing real local backlash.

Michael Barbaro: I'm really glad you mentioned that, Maggie, because as you said, it could in theory become a sleeper issue for Republicans.

Maggie Haberman: It's certainly possible, and it's a fast-moving issue. Over just the last 2 months, I feel like this has escalated dramatically.

Michael Barbaro: So, the parties don't have an identity around this yet.

Maggie Haberman: Let me put it this way. This issue is not yet ripe for partisan politics. Everyone is sort of deciding where they want to land on it.

Michael Barbaro: Okay, you're saying Michael, hold your horses. Come back to me in a few years when this is settled.

Maggie Haberman: Not even maybe not even until December. We we can talk about it in 2 weeks potentially, you know, it's really fast. When the poll began, we weren't talking about these local grid safety issues, for instance.

Shane Goldmacher: Need I mean, one of the things in the poll was we asked, you know, what are the most important issues to you and artificial intelligence data centers barely ranked. But there is a tension between that and what you see the campaigns putting in ads. These are in ads all over the country and as you're saying, it is scrambled. It's not just Democrats running on data centers or against data centers. It's Republicans. It's Democrats flipping their position and then then running tough on data center ads like Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania who had embraced as the biggest investment ever just last year and then now is running my Republican opponent is pro data center, I'm anti data center and the inverse in Texas where the governor is anti data center now and he's been pro data center.

Michael Barbaro: So, the politics around this all are basically so responsive and whiplashy that it's totally confusing.

Shane Goldmacher: Voters are angry and both parties are like trying to figure out a way to take advantage.

Michael Barbaro: Maggie, I just want to end with this question. Do you think President Trump has wrapped his head around the very real possibility that we we established in this conversation that he loses control of not just one branch of Congress, but potentially all of Congress. Has he processed that? And does he have a plan for that? As best you can tell.

Maggie Haberman: I believe that he is aware that this is a possibility. I think that he doesn't think that it's a possibility that impacts him the way it can impact the rest of his government. Most of his advisors will be very candid privately that it will be a disaster. It will mean a total slowdown of whatever they're hoping to do in terms of an agenda going forward. They know it will mean lots of investigations coming from certainly House Democrats, likely Senate Democrats as well.

Michael Barbaro: Standoffs over subpoenas.

Maggie Haberman: Correct. Here's the asterisk there. Trump is operating under a presidential immunity ruling from the Supreme Court that came in 2024. He knows that he is not facing federal criminal prosecution going forward. He has said, and Jonathan and I have reported this, that he is going to pardon any number of people who came within a certain radius of the Oval Office.

Michael Barbaro: them from congressional investigation.

Maggie Haberman: To protect them from anything. It is It is a pardon. And one thing would be contempt of Congress. So, I don't think we know what it looks like when an entire government does not respond to subpoenas. We have not seen that before. And the only recourse that Congress has is to send contempt of Congress referrals to Attorney General and former Trump personal lawyer Todd Blanche. So, I don't think those are going to go the way of long-term criminal prosecutions. So, it will be a mess, but the contours of that mess I think are an open question. And either way, they don't impact Trump directly the way they might others.

Maggie Haberman: Right. In terms of Trump's own thinking of this, again, I don't think he looks that far down the road, generally speaking. He is looking at the projects he wants to get done for himself. I realize we keep coming back to that, but it's really, really true. The Arc de Trump, as it's being called, the ballroom. So, that's the best I can give you.

Shane Goldmacher: I just wanted to ask a question of you in in that which is like when I'm watching Trump's behavior around the midterms from afar, it seems like he doesn't see this midterm as critical to his legacy. He doesn't. That his legacy is set and that the legacy is less whether Republicans keep control of the House and Senate and more if he finishes these projects.

Maggie Haberman: The party's legacy in his mind is not his legacy. That is absolutely true. These building projects are tangible and something that people can see and that he anticipates his name won't be taken off of as his name was taken off of buildings in 2016 and after. Yes, you are correct. Those are his legacy. His other legacy is how much money he has made and how much richer he is going to be and they're not going to be able to take that away from him.

Michael Barbaro: Mhm.

Michael Barbaro: Nate, I'm going to give you the final word.

Nate Cohn: I completely agree with what they just mentioned about the way the relationship between the White House and the Congress is about to change. Stepping even farther back, I think that with this election and in the final two months of this election, we are starting to turn a page in American politics. It's going to be a long time until the page turns all the way, but we've already talked about some things that are beginning to bubble up that are going to really alter the basic political conflict that we've had in this country for the last 10 years. AI is one example of that. And we're also about to have a presidential primary which will begin essentially when this midterm election ends that will not include Donald Trump.

Michael Barbaro: Mhm.

Shane Goldmacher: And that is a page starting to

Nate Cohn: a page that's starting to be changed.

Nate Cohn: And the next page is going to look pretty different when you put all those factors together. And we're just now beginning to talk about those issues and I don't know what it's going to look like, but it's going to be pretty different.

Michael Barbaro: Okay. Well, with that, Nate, Maggie, Shane, thank you for your time.

Shane Goldmacher: Thanks for having me.

Maggie Haberman: Thank you, Michael.

Michael Barbaro: We'll be right back. Here's what else you need to know today. On Tuesday, President Trump lashed out at the Supreme Court for blocking his efforts to restrict voting by mail, focusing his ire on the three justices that he appointed to the court, Amy Coney Barrett, Brett Kavanaugh, and Neil Gorsuch, all of whom voted against Trump in the case. In a social media post, Trump wrote, "Quote, these are not the people I interviewed to serve on the US Supreme Court. They are merely a shell of their original selves." Meanwhile, in another legal defeat for the president, a federal judge has ruled that the Kennedy Center for Performing Arts in Washington cannot honor Trump with an inscription on the building's exterior, as Trump has repeatedly demanded. "Such an inscription," the judge said, "would require permission from Congress, which authorized the Kennedy Center's creation and its original dedication to President Kennedy in 1964." In response to the ruling, the Kennedy Center's board voted to shut down the center for 2 years of renovations, while Trump himself threatened to block the money or required for those renovations. Today's episode was produced by Caitlin O'Keefe and Ricky Navezky, with help from Diana Wynn, Lexi Diao, and Eric Krupke. It was edited by Rachel Quester, contains music by Rowan Nvesto, Dan Powell, and Marion Lozano, and was engineered by Chris Wood. Our theme music is by Wonderly. That's it for The Daily. I'm Michael Barbaro. See you tomorrow.