All right. Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the market close. We are live and we have a lot to discuss. On top of that, we have a lot of earnings to get into.

This is what we have up on the day for earnings. Pure Storage, Marvell, GitLab, Asana, Crowdstrike, American Eagle, and Octa. So, you got a mix between Semiconductors, software names, more software heavy on today's earnings, and then American Eagle, which is retailers. So, you got a lot of different companies reporting today. We will be getting those earnings in about 15 minutes. We will have technical Tuesday after the earnings, probably around 4:20, 4:30. Uh, but we definitely have a lot of earnings to get into.

Now, since the market opened, we've had a bunch of different headlines come out. We last left when Trump was doing the cabinet meeting, and we honestly didn't get too much from that cabinet meeting. Even in the Q&A, I mean, there were a couple comments here and there.

What we actually got, which was the most important thing, is the odds of Kevin Hassid becoming the next Fed chair, the shadow Fed effectively on prediction markets rising to 83%. Why did that happen? Well, this is what Trump had to say at his 2pm announcement. We'll talk about what that announcement was for in a second.

>> Joe Gibia, I want to thank you all for being here. It's a great group and I guess a potential Fed chair is here too. I don't know who's allowed to say that potential. He's a respected person that I can tell you. Thank you, Kevin. Today is giving Tuesday. So, we have a lot of special people here with us. Uh, and then he says, "Maybe I guess a potential Fed chair is here, too. I don't know. Are we allowed to say that?" Thank you, Kevin. Seems kind of obvious that this is going to happen. Uh, and Kevin Hassid is going to be the Fed chair.

Now, prediction markets don't have Kevin Hassid at 95 or 97%. They still have him at 85% even after these com or 83%. He was at like 78% yesterday. So, you did get a bump up, but not fully out of the race from Kevin Worsh and some of the other people that potentially could be at that chair. Uh, is this bullish? Yeah, I mean, probabilities on the Fed futures went even higher based on Kevin Hasset potentially being the guy who is going to be the next Fed chair. We were at 86 in the morning. We are now at 89.2. I mean, it's all but guaranteed that we're going to get this rate cut. So, I mean, it's bullish and the market needs that.

Now, broader market, what happened today? S&P 500 relatively green. It was it's been an overall green day. You have some pockets of red, but most of those pockets of red are actually the pockets that were going green last week, which were your healthcare names and the broadening out trade. Starting to come back to tech.

By the way, the 2PM announcement was for the Trump accounts in Invest America. It was with Michael Dell announcing that $6.25 billion donation, which is going to be $250 for 25 million people added to their Invest accounts.

By the way, um if you do the math on these Invest America accounts, that means 25 million kids are now going to get effectively $1,250 as soon as they're born into an S&P 500 fund. And uh if you look at the let me just pull this up right here, trajectory of what should happen. So by the time these kids are we're looking at 60, they should have $300,000. So from 18 to 60, if you assume S&P 500 returns 10% a year, which is not guaranteed, they should have about 320 grand or 310 grand. Uh, pretty cool. I mean, pretty cool to get people interested into the financial ecosystem and give them a skin in the game. And the fact that Michael Liddell is making that donation is definitely a big deal.

So I think for everyone in the morning who thought that the 2M announcement was going to be about the Trump accounts, yeah, that's what it was about. Now, how much will Hood get of that? No one knows. We know that Brad Gersonner has been working very intimately with Robin Hood to be able to set up this initiative. Robin has already demoed an example of what these accounts will look like on their platform. I don't think, by the way, Meta right there, their high of day 647.

I don't think Hood's going to get all those accounts. Obviously, if your, you know, dad uses Schwab and they have a newborn, the newborn's probably going to have that money on the platform that their parents use, like Schwab. But as more millennials start to have kids, if we ever have any kids, um, and we're using Robin Hood, then most likely our kids will have Robin Hood. So, I do think there will be a chunk of those 25 million that go to Hood. But more importantly, it's just more people investing, which isn't that good for Robin Hood.

Robin right there 12691 that's up 3%. Micro strategy actually up 6%. Bitcoin also a nice little rebound on the day. It did hit 92 during the market open. It hit 83 in the morning. So that 83 to 92 reversal was nice to see. Apple all-time highs hit 287 4.23 trillion company. Nvidia at 18150. We have a headline invidia that we'll talk about in a second as well. Snowflake that's up 3%. Applovin great day that's up 4%. Costco's even up 1%. BMR up 11%. Google's trying to hit 315. Reddit's up 0.24. I mean, you're just seeing a lot of momentum across the board. Pounder was at 175, now back at 170, but still pretty green uh across the entire market.

Iran, right? Wow. 13. Okay. I didn't see Iran being down 13%. Uh the convertible notes I am not an expert on because I don't know them. I I don't specifically know the ones that Iran issued. Um but I think there's something there. But I was reading one piece of analysis that it's just not the most shareholder friendly these uh these convertible notes. I mean not every convertible notes have a lot of different nuances to them but some of them can be very effective.

So for example when Micro Strategy was getting all this money in 2024 at a 0% coupon and they were essentially taking that money buying Bitcoin at 50,000 60,000 that was not the worst idea. You know those are different types of convertible notes. Iran's not buying Bitcoin with it and and buying an asset that's going to outperform the interest they have to pay on the the debt, which in Micros um they're trying to build data centers which are very capital intensive. So I'm not sure exactly how the market's interpreting it, but IN's in a you know massive correction. The stock was at 80, now it's at 40. So you're talking about a 50% correction. Question now is does this rebound? But I ran right here down 13%.

Nebas as well I don't think held on to the green. Yeah, Nebius back to 97. That's down 3%. and Cororeweave was at uh 82 in the morning back to 76. So that is down half a percent as well. I do not know what happened to ALAB. It was up 10. Wow. 13%. If anyone has the analysis, I didn't see anything today. I I mean, I just saw a bunch of people posting technical charts. It was up 10%. Now it's down 13. Something fundamental had to take place for this one to get hit.

I'll put the poll in the chat for which one outperforms. Let me know which one of these stocks own. I think Marll is the biggest one that most people has most people have today. Which one outperforms? Uh we have Crowd Strike, Marll. What was the other one? Um Octa and I think we'll put put American Eagle up there. Let's see if American Eagle can outperform some of these names. Octa and then AEO. GitLab is another one that might be a more exciting name that gets up there because of Amazon.

So, I don't know too much about the relationship between uh between Amazon and ALAB. But if that is the case, Amazon introduced those training three trips, got the market excited for like 5 seconds, then it went right back down 238 down to 234. Definitely chipped off a little bit of Nvidia when they announced that stuff. And we'll go deeper into the Amazon announcement later, but that's at 23480 up about.39%.

Oaklow up 6% on the day. Tesla basically flat. Walmart's up 1%. Then the S&P 500 at 681 90 on the day. Apple again at 285.

Now, what is the market expecting for some of these earnings? And by the way, before we get into that, let me just share this real quick. Remember American Bitcoin, ABTC, Eric Trump's uh company that's down 37%. Uh basically, yes, insiders were able to sell. He tweeted today, today are pre- merger private placement shares unlocked. These early investors are freely available to cash in on their profits for the first time, which is why we will see volatility. Our fundamentals are virtually unmatched in our differentiation, mining Bitcoin at 50% of spot with 56% gross margins in Q3 and climbing the Bitcoin ranks daily. I'm also holding all my shares. So, you did have insiders that sold, which was inevitable. Uh it was not Eric Trump as per his tweet, but nonetheless, you did get a bit of pain.

Yes, we will have technical Tuesday after the earnings probably around 4:25. And so once we get through the earnings, we will have TT.

uh on Nvidia. I thought this was really important to look at. So the Nvidia CFO was at a UBS conference and here's what they said about the OpenAI partnership. Uh right now the quote is that 500 billion does not include any of the work that we're doing on the next part of the agreement with OpenAI. We believe we'll continue working with OpenAI and we still have not completed a definitive agreement, but we're working with them. So, you've got the OpenAI CFO saying, "Hey, that 500 billion in five quarters that Jensen talked about um in GTC that doesn't include China and it also doesn't include any of the stuff we announced with OpenAI at the end of September in that massive hundred billion dollar 10 gigawatt partnership that both companies came to agreement on. So, I mean, you got Nvidia turning at 25 times next year's earnings with two major things that are not included in the guidance. You get any of those things to help that might be a real big tailwind for Nvidia.

Nvidia right there. Green on the day. As you can see, tech pretty much green across the board. The names that uh didn't end up going green were some of the red ones or were some of the the the names that got rotated into that are now red on the day.

A little bit of preview on Marll and Crowd Strike. Let's get some coverage right here and then in about five minutes, we should get some answers on what these earnings will look like today.

>> Important piece of the chip puzzle. Yes, because this is also a custom chipmaker that competes with Broadcom. And so there's three key areas to focus on. First, the Broadcom problem. Analysts say Broadcom has won customer engagements with most of the major players, raising concerns about whether Marll actually fits into this competitive landscape. And you can just see the difference in the stock prices over the last year. Marll and the red brought come up 129%. Second, the Amazon situation. Marbell's AWS business has been essentially flat quarter over-arter since ramping in late 2024. Disappointing compared to Piers growths in AI projects. There are also specific concerns about Marbell's share in Amazon Tradian chips with some analysts suggesting the company has lost ground to competitors AWS did not mention Marbell today at their event. And last but not least, third, the CEO vote of confidence. Matt Murphy bought $1 million of stock in late September at around 77 bucks. uh shares have outperformed the socks index since then, but investors want to know what he sees that they're missing.

>> Crowd Strike, Mike, has been killing it this year, and that's reflected in its stock price as you just mentioned. It's up over 50% in 2025 on this bet that artificial intelligence is accelerating the need for cyber security as bad actors get more sophisticated. So what Wall Street wants to know from CEO George Kurtz tonight is more evidence on new customer wins. How its latest acquisition of Pangia technology is using to secure AI agents is being integrated into the full stack. Curts recently sharing that companies agents can speed up the triage process by hunting down malware. Curts also added that at some point security will be fully autonomous. He didn't provide a timeline. We'll see if he does tonight. The stock is currently trading about 10% off its most recent high. Mike.

>> All right. So, Crowd Strike and Marll, I think, are the big ones that everyone's looking at. You got the data center names that are now starting to get into a little bit of a sell-off. Again, I've learned this with owning Nebius. Now, like seeing the volatility here, I just I I think over the past couple weeks, it's not affecting me as much because these are volatile names. I mean, if you own Iran, Cororeweave, Nebius, you're getting into them for the massive 10 15% days, but with that volatility to the upside comes the volatility to the downside.

So, I mean, this thing could go back to 80 on any bad data center headline. If Oracle issues more debt, the street could get mad. Cororeweave's uh credit default swap starts spiking up. Nebas could get hit as collateral damage. Irre had this $2 billion dilution yesterday. I don't think it affects Nebius or Corweave that much, but nonetheless, it might be taking down all of them.

So, I think it's And then Cipher and Wolf were up 11% each on Wednesday. Both of them now down 10% on the day. So, and both of them are cosigned by Google as well. Wolf actually down 7%. So I think when you own these names, unless you're owning them from a very low cost basis, which some people, you know, got into these names really early. If you're buying them here, you're buying them for the ups and for the downs and they're much much more volatile than a traditional stock in the market. So it's just it's just what comes with game on these data center plays.

Microsoft right here 489. That's gapping up a little bit. Amcor amazing day hit $40.92. Now if we close above 40, which we have two minutes left, that would be incredible. If we can hold 40 for a second day in a row tomorrow, that would also be incredible. By the way, Stock Talk, the person who got me into Amcore, he will be on the show tomorrow at 10:45. So, he'll be on tomorrow. You guys will get to meet him and uh it'll be cool for him to explain kind of his stock picking philosophy and how he found Amcore as well.

Reddit goes right on the day. Vertive, that's up.92%. Google right there at 315. S&P at 681. Basically, a flat day for the S&P. I will take it. Don't send us back down to 650. If we got to stay at 680, that is totally fine.

Also, fun fact for everybody, tomorrow, December 3rd, is the seasonal bottom for December. Since 1950 to 2024, December 3rd has always been the bottom. So, I mean, who knows? Maybe tomorrow you're going to get a little bit of volatility to the downside and that would be our bottom. If not, then we're going to see how this December turns out. But that's one thing to watch out for as we get into the third trading day of December.

All right, here we go. We got a lot of earnings on deck. Uh most of you guys are saying that Crowd Strike outperforms. Yeah, 54% of you say Crowd Strike, 28% Marll, 9% Octa, and then 7% AEO. So, we are going to see how these companies end up putting up results.

Thank you everybody for being here. We will have technical Tuesday after the earnings. Tuesday, December 2nd, 4 p.m. The stock market is now closed.

All right, we are done for trading at least in the regular session for the stock market today. 68143 on the S&P. 68143 on the S&P. Basically flat on the day. Nvidia got about a$150 move. Coreweave was down about 1.34%. Nebius down 3.69%. Nebius was at 101 in the morning. So again, the volatility in this name is pretty incredible.

Iran, I I got to do some work on why the street absolutely hated these convertible notes, but the street did not like it. 15% down on Iran. And it doesn't just seem like it's a reaction to dilution. It seems like it's a reaction to the type of dilution because dilution is inevitable within these data center names. And so we got to see what exactly the street doesn't like about this.

Google right here 315. Intel, great day up 8.65% 65%. Intel, incredible move right here. Shopify, that's up 5%. Robin Hin, that's up 2.2%. BABA, that was down about 1.9% again. S&P 500 at 681. Nvidia at 18146. Micro Strategy got a bit more of a recovery at 18133 after being down 10%. And then BMR as well up 11% on the day as ETH got a move back over 3,000.

Could it be ALOS on Irene? I don't think a 15% move is just ALOS. If all the data center stocks were like bleeding like I then yes I think this is something that someone whether it's an institutional shareholder or retail investors and I doubt it's retail because retail is really diamond hands on IN there's someone else that is not loving the convertible notes that they issue and so we'll have to look deeper into seeing what's happening there.

Palant share 170.69 up 2% on the day. UNH as well not too bad of a day up.37% and then ASML basically hitting all-time highs as well.

Okay, let's get into earnings. We should be getting results pretty soon. What do we have after hours? Pure Storage was up 7%. It's now up 1% after hours. We'll start getting these numbers soon. Marll was up 2% on the day. GitLab was up 5% during the day. Asana was up 4% during the day. Crowd Strike was up 2% during the day. American Eagle was actually down during the day. And then Octa was up 2%. So, a lot of these names were green.

Um, and we're going to see how they perform after hours. Now, what does the market want from them? Uh, let's just pull this up right here. Crowd Strike Street wants 94 cents and 1.2 billion in revenue. Marll Street wants 74 cents and 2.07 billion of revenue. GitLab, they want 20 cents, 239 million of revenue. Octa, they want 76 cents a share and 730 million of revenue. Pure Storage, 58 cents, and 956 million of revenue. And American Eagle, they want 1.32 billion of revenue and 444. And so those are the expectations. A sauna, they want 6 cents of EPS and 198 million of revenue.

Octa, do we have it? Octa goes red after hours by about 1%. Not too crazy. Octa revenue 742 million. Um, Octa, it's a beat on the top and the bottom. 742 versus 730. That's a beat on revenue. 76 cents expected, 82 cents earned. That's a beat on EPS. Stock is flat. markets not caring too much, but those are your earnings for Octa.

Octa is not necessarily the most volatile name that's out there. Doesn't really move like that. Year to date, this stock is up 4%. 14 billion company. So, that's what you have on Octa. I think Marll and Crowdstrike are going to be the main main ones that we look at.

So, that's what we have on Octa. Let's see if we can get some more of these numbers as we get into the close. And we talked in the morning about the Netflix Warner Brothers Discovery deal as well. Netflix has officially submitted a allcash offer. Um, now Larry Ellison really wants HBO Max and Warner Brothers. So maybe Paramount comes in with a higher offer, but Netflix is trying to see if they can acquire it. And the more I think about it, the more I think it makes a lot of sense. I mean, Netflix needs really good IP. And every time you get it into a show in Netflix that's not made by them, they have, you know, it's like leaving in five days or something, it's like really tough for them to just get really good content. And HBO would have that.

Crowd Strike up a little bit after hours up 1%. Um, don't see the move. American Eagle, that's up 2%. Up a little bit more. Let's see. Oh, American Eagle. There you go. That's getting a bigger candle. 5%. Sydney Sweeney pump. Let's see if she can do it. Let's see if she can do it.

Still don't have the numbers on either. I mean, she was a big deal last quarter as she got into a lot of controversy with the ad and all that stuff. So, I mean, if anything, that got a lot more people to talk about. American Eagle up 4.2%. Crowd Strike up 1%. GitLab, that one's up 5%. GitLab getting some love. Uh, Google was supposed to buy GitLab back in 2021. like they were acquiring shares and then they just never ended up making the acquisition. But GitLab right there, that's up 5.3%.

Pure Storage is down. Pure Storage is down 6.4. Octa's now down two. Asana's up seven. GitLab just went flat. Marll, this is the big one. That's down two. Let's see if that reverses. Maybe we can get a little bit of a different print there.

Okay, we got Marll beat by 3% on EPS 76 cents versus 74 cents expected. Revenue came in line with expectations 2.07 billion. Revenue is up 37% year-over-year. EPS is up 77% year-over-year. Street does not like it, at least not enough to give them a premium.

Marbell is uh intertwined with Amazon as we talked about before. Marbell right there down what 1.87% billion dollar company. This one has rebounded really nicely on the six-month time frame as you can see right there in September hit 60 bucks. Right now 92 down from 104. So even in the November draw down 104 to 92 is not that crazy especially because it's up from 60 but stock still down about 2%.

Wow. Pure Storage down 15. I don't have their numbers yet. Um let's see if I can find these numbers on Pure Storage. Again, this is a this is another SAS company. Um, enterprise data storage, a lot of those different things. PTSD. Oh my goodness. PTSG 17%.

Okay. What did they say? Crowd Strike is not out. Pure Storage beat by 1% on revenue 964 versus 956. They came in line on EPS. They had to say something about guidance for them to be getting this type of reaction. 18% down.

No, it's not a read. It's a SAS company and it's being pretty sassy right here. 17% down. Marll, you know, one could argue their products are sticky, but uh it's not it's not seeming like like Spider-Man is going to come save them even though he also has some sticky webs. So, Marll right there down 3% on the day. GitLab still down 6%. Crowd Strike now going red, but we don't have numbers on Crowd Strike yet.

GitLab numbers are out 25 cents versus 20 cents expected. That's a beat by 25%. Revenue 244 versus 239. That's beat by 2%. EPS up 19% year-over-year. Revenues up 25% year-over-year. GitLab not really getting any love either. Down 4% even with a double beat. Even with a double beat.

Okay, so Asana is the only one getting some love right here. Crowd Strike, we don't have the numbers yet. I expect Crowd Strike to have good numbers. I don't know if the stock's gonna really make a move. Remember, Crowdstrike is outside of Pounder, the most expensive software name. It's already up 50. Wow, I didn't even know it was up 48.7% this year. So, this one's going to need a really big quarter for the street to keep giving it some love.

Sauna. Wow. They beat by 17% on EPS. 7 cents versus 6 cents expected. 2011 versus 198. Beat by 1%. EPS up 450% year-over-year. Revenues up 9% year-over-year. And it looks like that is enough for the streets to get excited.

>> Say beat but not a massive beat. Yeah. earnings per share of uh 76 cents, three cents higher than what the street anticipated. This is for Q3. Uh Q3 revenues coming in at 2.08, just slightly slightly higher. Uh for Q4 revenue guidance, 2.2 billion, also a little bit higher than the 2.17 billion. Uh data center revenue that contributes a lot to their bottom line. Uh data center revenue came in at 1.52 billion for the quarter, which was also just slightly higher than street estimates. Uh the company also for gross margins a little bit higher but not by much. 59.7 for Q3, 59% for Q4. They are announcing though in their press release that they are excited to announce the acquisition of Celestial AI. This was a rumor from uh the information earlier today, but now they're confirming uh that it's going to help with their um the fastest growing opportunities in AI data center infrastructure. So they're confirming that. So that could possibly be contributing to the uh the the negative reaction in the stock and the fact that the um beat was not that big.

Earnings 1.23 billion versus 1.21. That's a beat. EPS 96 cents versus 94 cents. That's a beat. You got a double beat. Revenue 1.29 to 1.3 for Q4. That is a beat against the expectations. A very slight beat against the 1.29 expectation. And then fiscal year revenue 4.8 to 4.81. That is a beat. Well, not really because originally the street thought it would be 4.75 to 4.81. So, they increased the low end of their guidance. Didn't increase the high end. Not something the stock should be dumping off by any sense of the imagination, but maybe not something that deserves a massive move higher.

Pretty much in line. Even the beats were like by a couple cents. So, it would not shock me if this goes up, but it also would not shock me if it kind of just stays flat right here. Now, you're getting a reversal up 1%. It was down to trying to make a bit of a move right here. 1.25 1.32. All right. It's It's It's trying. The red candle didn't make that much sense. So, it's reversing. Question is, how big do we get a reversal for? Pure Story, by the way, was down 18. Now, it's only down 10. Marll is down seven. This one just was down two. Now, it's collapsing. Get Labs down seven.

American Eagle 15. Whoa. Sydney Sweeney came through.

>> Yeah. So, American Eagle reporting Q3 earnings of 53 cents per share. That's on revenue of 1.36 billion, beating expectations on both the top and bottom lines. For the holiday quarter, American Eagle is expecting comps to grow between 8 and 9%. Now, that's about four times higher than expectations. So, that's pretty big here. American Eagle also

>> they raised expectations by 400% and they beat EPS by 20%. I mean, look, Sydney Sweeny's probably helping, but outside of just Sydney Sweeney, there's something about the consumer that has enough disposable income or has access to a lot of credit to be able to buy overpriced jeans. But these companies are putting up the earnings. And it was Urban Outfitters last week, now American Eagles,

>> its fullear adjusted operating income guidance. It's now expecting it to be between 303 million and 308 million. Companywide, the results look solid, but the growth was primarily driven by airy. At American Eagle's namesake banner, comps grew just 1% while analysts were looking for 2.1%. That's after its splashy campaign with Sydney Sweeney. While the campaign didn't have a major impact on sales, operating margin did come in better than expected at 8.3%. John,

>> I mean, that's pretty incredible. American Eagle, Best Buy, Burlington, Abberrombi. Look at that. 13% on the day. And that's not just off hype. That's off increasing fiscal year guidance by 4x and beating EPS by uh by 20%. That's pretty incredible.

Marll still down 7%. Crowd Strike barely holding on. You do have uh some guidance. crowd strike confident in delivering 20% net new ARR growth for 2027 um which is increasing the expectation from 2026 ARR if you listen to George Curts he that is the number one thing he cares about as a CEO is how much more annual recurring revenue they can bring to the business

that's why all of their um press releases kind of start off with that metric as you can see right here record Q3 net ARR of 265 million that's up 73% year-over-year overall ARR at 4.92 billion up 23% % year-over-year. CEO said, "Crowd Striker is the enabler of secure AI transformation with the right architecture, the right products, and the right execution. Q3 was one of our best quarters in company history. We achieved record Q3 net new ARR of 265 million, which accelerated 23% year-over-year. Our single platform strategy coupled with the Falcon Flex subscription model unlocks consolidation, positioning crowd as the operating system of cyber security. We delivered an acceleration in ending ARR growth across our endpoint business as well as in cloud security.

Uh the CFO said, "We delivered outstanding third-party results, exceeding expectations across all guided metrics. Total revenue is up 22% yearover-year." Not bad. And they've got five billion in cash. And they've got five billion in cash. So you got Crowd Strike. Even though the stock's not moving, you do have some pretty decent earnings. And you know, if you bought it early in the year, you're up 50%. So can't be too upset.

Marll still trying to understand why exactly. I know the operating margin on the fiscal year 226 guidance was a little bit lower than expected but still that one down 6%. Pure Storage down 10 and American Eagle is not stopping. It's up 15 15% on the day.

All right, folks. It is Tuesday. Thank you everybody for being here. Those were the earnings updates. Uh we are going to get into a bunch of technical analysis for those that aren't familiar with TA. It's essentially looking at charts and trying to make predictions based on a variety of different variables on how a stock will perform. Based on looking on the charts, not everyone's cup of tea. So, if it's not your cup of tea, that's okay. But there is someone who I deeply respect who understands TA. And uh he happens to be the Asian version of Steve. It is time to roll the intro.

What's up? >> It's Jason. What's up?

>> You're Asian Steve. What do you mean? Asian Steve.

>> Asian Steve in the house. Should I change it? >> People name is Jason. They say like four agencies. So, see, you got to embrace it. That's who you are.

>> Um, we got a lot to talk about. We last talked on Tuesday when the markets were starting to recover from some of the November downside. Now, that was on low volume as we were getting into Thanksgiving. So, you can pull up the S&P 683, less than 1% away from all-time highs. I mean, it really does feel like there is a shot if we get this rate cut for some momentum to occur. So, I guess what are you thinking? How are you seeing the S&P 500?

>> Um, so it is Sorry, I got a lot of lines here. Should I start? Yeah, >> we have a timer. First of all, and I I've been posting at least just general updates. Um, and I know Emit does this. Uh, by the way, did you guys see the thumbnail that he almost used? He thought about it. I don't know how how long he thought about the thumbnail, but we had a He spent all this time putting together this thumbnail. It was very, very thoughtful. >> Did you Did you post it? Because I thought you were going to post it. >> What do you mean >> the thumbnail? because you said he was he was gonna do he was he was gonna do the thumbnail. >> This was gonna be the new the new show. What do you guys think? >> Hold on. This should be the thumbnail. Like >> that's what I was saying. >> 22 minutes ago I was live so I didn't even think of it. I like this should legit every Tuesday. This is >> Well, I made this is uh you know it's Christmas themed. >> Why did the AI make me so mad though? I look >> I don't know. You're so serious, man. So serious. But it wasn't bad. It wasn't bad. >> Did you donate today? >> Also, so I'm totally We're just We're just catching up. But I did uh I post It's It's Giving Tuesday. This is my I don't we donate to scout troops every now and this is my picture of me as a boy scout back in that's legit me way back in the 90s. >> I'll put that >> if you guys need some uh tax deductible gains for sure. Actually, you could click this little link. I just pinned it. But um but anyways, moving on. I'll I'll put the link in the chat. I cannot believe that's you, dude. That's That's wild. >> Yeah, this is 90s, man. N Well, I'm an 80s baby. >> How old were you were like what 10, 12? >> No, I'm uh How old am I here? This is probably 15. >> Okay, >> so maybe like late 90s. Late 90s. I was a boy. Look at the Boy Scouts. Hey, and if you guys if you guys have Boy Scout pictures, like reply in there, cuz like all the Boy Scout pictures of everybody, like this is pretty badass. Sorry, but this is pretty cool to see everybody's like memories coming up of like way back when. Like it's it's way cool. But anyways, yeah, good times, man. >> That's awesome. >> But so let's get on with the show, if you will. Um, you know how quickly we forget where we just were like not even that long ago. It's it it blows my mind. Um, oh yeah, just scouts now. Sorry. Um, it blows my mind how like we were just down here at these like at these lows. Literally like >> I was not a Girl Scout. Stop saying that. >> Well, girl are cool, too. And we here we are 5% in 11 days. um in the in the last couple days we haven't actually gone anywhere. Um and so that has me a little bit I think we're so the market goes three directions. They go up, they go down and markets go sideways also. Right now I will say this is this is one of those sideways moments the last few days at least few as in three two or three days. uh and so I think well so we are gearing up for another move in what direction that direction is TBD

and and amidst uh what do you call that like the the preface of the segment if you will is it's it's not what did you call it when you first met me uh astronomy astron like male astrology is >> I didn't say that but other people say that often >> okay but you said it but >> I I think it's useful, but you know, that's what people >> to to to those people's credit, it's kind of like being a weatherman sometimes. And I saw a comment and something's like I can say like, "Hey, look, it's cloudy outside and it might rain and sometimes it might rain the next day. Sometimes it might rain right away. Sometimes it might rain a little bit, you know, later on. But if there's storms brewing, then there's storms brewing. whether or not they hit you right like right smack in the face right away that that's kind of actually pretty pretty legit uh in terms of an analogy. Um so meteorology I guess you could you could you could call it that. Um but it's good to know what the weather's going to be like if I'm going to go out. Do I want to wear a sweater? Do I want to wear shorts today or what? Right. Um so anyways it it's it's something like that. So, so right now we're we're very close. For a while when the government was shut down, we were the the market has been and still is using uh ADP numbers in in the absence, if you will, of NFP numbers. Now, we did get NFP numbers just recently and and the last time we were here, I said, um, look, we should we should actually make it up to 675. And if we can get a couple closes above 675, which we have, um, then we should be good. So we got one open and close, right? So this is one, we got two and actually we got three. So one, two, three closes above NFP like this 675. And so this looks good. The only issue I have right now is that the next level, and this is the way that this works, is that if we get we get there, then we go to the next level. Well, the next level we're already there. We we hit it like right away. It's 681. So, we have to do this process one more time and we we have not actually been able to do it.

So, 681 in my post has actually been a pretty pretty big level. Um, and if we if we can't hold, well, cool. Then we'll just retest this 675 and see if it holds here and then then we can have this kind of situation. That would be ideal. So, where we are right now, it's a high-risk area to press new money long. long way to say that. Um because your riskreward is is not nearly as good as it was down here. Not nearly as good. And we have a lot of traffic above us.

>> And down down there was just two weeks ago.

>> Yeah. And down here was just two week two weeks ago. This is a better spot to to do a light hedge in terms of not wanting to sell a whole lot of upside calls, but I don't mind buying cheap downside insurance. Actually, I don't mind that. Um and this red line here is the prevailing downtrend if you will. So um in terms of our trend count from from a market perspective, trend count meaning series of higher highs and higher lows. This was our last high. This was our last low. We locked in a lower high. We actually locked in a lower low. Lower high. Lower low. You can kind of finagle it however you want, but if we can get over 68588, which was pretty much our last high right around here, then and we're very close to it, then we should definitively at least now we're looking at 700s. And that is how we get to those 700s.

>> so speaking of Deep Seek, let's just do Nvidia as the first stock. I mean, the price action on this one has been kind of weird to me. I wonder how you're thinking about this holding 180.

>> Um, so I I I thought it would go down a little bit deeper. I mean, it did retest this lower end. I think it could be good. I think it could be okay. But it's it's a similar situation where like if if this can't get through this major traffic zone here right now, this is and has been resistance in the past. So for all intents and purposes, I actually have to assume that this is resistance. It it looks constructive. But new money long here as a trader this is the definition of high risk low reward.

Um down here it's better. So so we like to buy at support. We don't like to buy at resistance as a trader typically speaking. Um I I mean it's just a good rule of thumb to operate by to buy at support not buy at resistance in general for life. Um, but sorry, but but you know, we're so used to to breakout markets. You know, I I saw this one coming here. It didn't really get through the I needed to get over 200. This is actually a this is actually a good defensive hold right here. So, I think that this has a strong possibility of being it right now. Um, and if it can get a little bit higher and get through this resistance zone, then I think it's a it at that point it's a lower risk um, situation to go along higher, which sounds weird, but again, I want to get through this traffic area first.

>> do you >> just getting spread around which is not not really bearish. Do you have a target for end of year? Could you see this back to 200 or you think that's going to be a little tough

>> again? So I could easily see this back over 200, but TA is is if this then that, right? So if if it's over the levels are here. So this little area right here >> 187 roundabout. >> Yeah. And it's 184 very explicitly. So we can kind of see it. I'll just turn this red. So see this here. All of this selling selling. This is August and again here. And again here. And actually right here. It really it really kind of jumps out at you where you can start to see it. Oops. You can start to see like if I if I zoom in a little bit more. I don't want to take up too much time, but this is sorry July, late July, all of August. That's the orange box here. 184 spot 15. Uh I'll make this a little bit darker for you guys here. 184 spot 15. It's It's pretty apparent on the chart where this was. Is this a market cap level? At what market cap is this? >> Well, 123 is three trillion. I think it's guys, 4 trillion is one >> 4.5 maybe. >> Yeah, 4 trillion was 164. So, yeah. Yeah, 44 round about. >> I mean, sometimes it does this weird stuff, but um but there's a bit of a a explosion here and and this was support here. So it's it's very minuscule, but you can see where there's a lot of buying selling that happens right at that exact level. So I So if it can turn that current resistance, which is what this is, into support, meaning if it can get over it and hold above it and then you see something like that in this case, for sure like it's it's it's a no-brainer. This is definitively going in in short order, by the way. So, I just ran out of time to 195. 195 200 is a very specific round number.

>> uh guys, we're going to do all the main stocks, so about 10 15 of them, and then we will get into the audience requests. Uh next one, another big one a lot of people are curious about is Meta.

>> No. So, so um so this this white line is Chris's trade. Shout out Chris wherever he is if he's in here. Is Chris here? I don't know. >> He's probably not, but he's probably happy that Meta is going higher. >> So, it what it needed to see is we needed to see it hold over that 634 level. And so far, it actually it it is um you know, just like we wanted to see this base get created over here. That's good. at this point where what's happening is that your your 20-day SMA is is um is leveling out, if you will. Um, you know, I made a a snarky comment the other day. I was like, when I when I get a death cross on Meta, it'll probably be a buy. If we get a a little bit of a blip down on Meta, that 50-day, which is the blue line here, is probably going to cross down below um what is this? is probably going to cross down below the 200 and and it'll be a death cross and it will probably be a buy.

So, if I get if I get that dip, I'll probably buy again. Uh and definitely if if it holds that 630ish level. Um but so far this looks constructive. Um this was a very like heavy bounce. So, I think we're looking more like the K style recovery than like the straight up V, but the trajectory here is to 68860. Uh, and and that that is what it is. So, 68860. As long as we hold 633, um, you're going there.

>> Great. And it's important we have moments like that throughout the segment because that stuff definitely is is helpful. Um Tessy, you think this one has a shot to get to 460 by end of year?

>> Oh my goodness, she's trying so hard, dude. She's trying. Um, so, um, again, what do we look for on these SMA? We look for them really tight and then when they're about to expand together, that's that's your cue. So, Tessy lines back on right back into resistance, she's trapped. So, if they're magnets, they're not dynamic support and resistance. We don't use them for that. Um, she's stuck. We use there's a term called like moving average ping pong. uh where you just like pingpong in between these these like whatever moving averages. That's literally ping pong ping pong ping pong in between these. Boom boom boom boom boom boom boom. Oh man, is she stuck. She got me today. I'm not going to lie. She got me. I was like, "All right, 50. We're coming down. We're going to breach this and she's going to come back in." Cuz 420, by the way, is is brought resistance up here, high traffic zone, right? And that's what I'm thinking. But it's a squeeze. We call squeeze area too. We're like if it gets over like this is heavy resistance. I don't think you're going to break through resistance. Not in the market at at the moment. There's no reason. No catalyst, no none of that. Um, so I should expect this to come down. And then it it just like boom gets sucked right back into the 50 and actually breaches it again. I'm like, oh my goodness. What was today's range? It was like 4:15 to 4:30 something. Dude, what a whipssaw day on Tessy. But she's trying. I think what I've been saying on Tesla holds true is that she's stuck. Uh, and that's the truth. So, so nothing has changed on Tesla the chart. Um, I think that this still remains to be your entire consolidation range. That could be I think she's primed for people that are into selling premium. I think this is a great spot for Tesla.

>> um Google do you think this one can hold 300 till the end of the year >> because I think a lot of questions I'm getting on this one is there there's either breakout to 35 or there's a retrace back to the 290s.

>> She's trying so hard. I mean, you're on it, right? So, so when we were locked over here, first of all, Google has like kind of defied a lot of stuff in terms of general rule sets with with headlines, new headline, new headline, new headline. And it's it's it's been pretty stuck on that. around this area. I actually said Google was in premium generation mode similar to Tesla and like selling upside calls around like 320 310 area about 45 days to expiration would would technically be ideal because because at the time it had not broken out. It it tried to get over that that power that earnings gap and it did not. And then this day at 300 headline breaks, I'm thinking this is fine. Headline breaks and then poof, she goes, "Actually, I'm going to keep that stance and I still think that 320 310 cover call don't I'm not touching that." Um I I actually don't think this is ready to go. Uh, I think that you have this what we call like pretty clean inefficiency here that the market wants to fill around 302. To your question, do I think it holds 300? I do. Do I think that it can have a little dip into that sub 300 for for a blip that gets bought? Very possible.

>> All right, we got like five more main ones and then we will get into the audience requests. Uh, hood.

But again, we've we've we're we are back on the mend, but look at this. We are right back to a very difficult level. So, I don't want to rest on my laurels. I don't want to be the guy that's like blind to everything that's happening here. Uh I am back over the 20-day SMA. I'm under the 50. I am retesting the prior broken downtrend or uptrend. So, if that was the trend line, that was what I wanted to see happen. Well, I'm testing it from from the bottom, from underneath, it's good. It's not quite good enough yet.

That is my my biggest thing. So, here we are on this loss. Actually, let's just go from here. 12786. That's the number. 127.86. If this bad boy holds, that's where the bears are living. I mean, they're they're they're living right in here. And they give up right here. So, right now, they've taken a couple shots at me and my my cohorts. Uh, and you know what? Fine. They they've won a battle or two, but look, we came back with a vengeance.

>> Uh, all right, we got four more main ones, then we'll get into audience ones. Uh, AMD,

AMD didn't quite get to 185. Oo, she got close, though, huh? >> Got very close. >> Real close. She got into the box. And so, so this this gray box was the box. This guy right here that is actually the head and shoulders pattern whatever completed meaning if this is the head and the shoulders it's that um 50% 50% of that extended that's target acquired. So that pattern complete. You don't really have to worry about that anymore unless it um and worst case it the worst case it was 182 which at 190 I guess you really don't worry about it.

You just kind of close your eyes and buy a little double bottom amidst amidst uh what is that? There it is. Double bottom. Um but 227 is well shoot is was and remains the like the critical like pivot and power shift pivot. Um we'll just zoom out just so you guys see it. So 227 is from here. That's 2024 all-time high. So it it really you'd really want it to be over that. Um there's still a real like there's still a real possibility that this gets to 185s. Um so it's still on watch. I would I would still be more comfortable. Um this is what you would call a bare flag. It's not a bullish setup. It's actually pretty bearish setup here.

>> Yep. Um all right last couple uh SoFi

>> looking better by the way. Marll still going 14. >> Do you guys like that? Like you can like tickle him. >> That was the thing you've actually That's gonna get clipped, bro. That is >> um I It actually looks good. So, this is doing what I was hoping that some others would do. So, it's actually whole thing. >> Dude, we have a >> none of your other guests are this. None of your other guests would do that. >> That's true. They wouldn't. >> Um, >> that's that's why you're special. So, >> all right. So, this 20 2875 big deal um to hold this level was resistance right here, here, here, right? um had been support for a time in here, resistance here, support recently. So what was resistance, sorry, has turned near-term

dude. I mean people that don't like technicals or thought it was just astrology. I I swear like if there was a TT like chat like they could just like this is how much I made just by like low 24s dip by kabam. I mean that's money TT pays again here we are right up in here actually holding this I think this does another consolidation don't need to press the bet but when it does get over um which it's really going to try this is this is very much going to come down to rates uh and we're we're very likely priced in so not actual rate cuts but rhetoric around the the velocity of rate cuts to come more notably who the next Fed chair will be as well. Heavy heavy low like low liquidity zone here to fill into the 32s

>> I love it. Last one for the day. Bitcoin

>> So, I I I I did say wait for 70s. Um I don't know if I if I get 70s. Um but a lot of these things. So, the crypto bounce has actually held. I was worried there for a little bit, but 2,700 on Ethereum and this 8,400 on Bitcoin actually a big deal. Um quite a quite a big deal to to hold. So very constructive here. Um

this is that most recent base. Is it over? I think this has a lot to do with that that yen carry trade. Um, it's building a base if this gets over 90s like or not 90s like this is going to head into that 95 area right there. So, it's got to get over this. And so, from here, remember uh a couple weeks back we were talking about what is a what is a a bearish to bullish reversal look like? Step one. Step one, 20-day SMA. That's step one. That's this white line. And we're kind of coming over. So, I think you could chop around this. And then you get to the 50-day. That's going to land you right at that at that at that 95 area. Step two is to get over that and you're going to traverse into 106. So, is it 100? No. Is it 106 or so? Yes. Uh, is it December? It's probably January. How's that?

All right, that's all we got. There's Jason's Twitter in the chat. We'll be back or I'll be back tomorrow morning. Um, yeah, it it I I agree with a lot of what you said around the market conditions. Like it feels like we're setting up for an uptrend towards the end of the year, but it's it's like it's towing the line because we're we just came through all the red. So, I think all of us are just like, you know, do we really trust net new long money is a good risk board here?

>> Yeah, that's a good it's a good way to say it. Like new money long, it's high risk new money long here. Do I sell stuff? No. Right. Yeah, >> but you know, it's better to wait a little bit to see if we can clear some hurdles. Um, and then I can I can say, "Oh, we're we're good." Um, and and be happy. Plus, I don't want to ruin Christmas cuz hey, this has been a hell of a rally from the lows, man. I mean, do you guys remember,