应对丧亲之痛与创业心法 (Coping with Grief and Entrepreneurship Lessons)
Alex: 我做了一次价值1.06亿美元的发布会。我妈妈有幸看到了,这真的很酷。但四周后她就去世了。当时的感觉就是,我现在该如何面对这一切?所以,我把这些推文当作写给自己的备忘录。
Original English
Alex: I do a $106 million launch. My mom got to see it, which is really cool. She dies four weeks later. It was just like, how am I supposed to show up right now? So, I write these tweets as notes to self.
Host: 我以前从未听过你这样公开谈论。
Original English
Host: I'd never heard you talk like that publicly before.
Alex: 是的。我当时在想,我现在需要听到什么样的话?然后我想,我就把这些写下来吧,意思就是我必须继续战斗。人们会通过你选择承受多少痛苦来评判你对一个人的爱有多深。但我认为,你失去的那个人很可能并不希望你受苦。我从创业视角学到并应用到生活中的一个教训是,我们会遇到这些不满或不适的时刻,然后觉得“生活糟透了,我需要改变些什么”。但我的情感不适不足以成为改变我现在所做之事的充分理由。因此,要在商业上取得成功,仍然需要所有其他的技能。如果我要将14年的商业建议浓缩起来,我要说的第一件事就是,你必须决定,你是更在乎自己的未来,还是更在乎别人对你未来的看法。就像别人眼中那个版本的你必须得死,因为在创业的最初期,一切都归结于一件事,那就是恐惧。感到害怕是顺理成章的,因为我们渴望确定性,但知道答案的唯一方法就是开始行动。我学到的第二件事是,建立一家价值1000万美元公司的最快方法,并不是建立一家价值1亿美元公司的最快方法。因为专注和耐心是两项持久的竞争优势,因为它们是如此反人类。这就是企业家们会一飞冲天的地方。我稍后会详细解释这个概念。
Original English
Alex: Yeah. I'm like, what do I need to hear right now? And I was like, I'll write that, which is like I just have to keep fighting. And people will judge how much you love someone by how much you choose to suffer. I don't think the person that you lost probably wants you to suffer. One of the lessons that I've learned from an entrepreneurship perspective translated into life is we will get these moments of dissatisfaction or discomfort and be like I'm life sucks. I need to change something. But my emotional discomfort is not an adequate reason to change what I'm doing. And so there's all these other skills that are still required to be successful in business. But if I can compress 14 years of business advice, the first thing I would say is you have to decide whether you care more about your future than what other people think about your future. Like someone's version of you has to die because everything in the very beginning of entrepreneurship comes down to one thing which is fear. And it makes sense to be afraid and it's because we want certainty, but the only way to know is to start. The second thing I've learned is that the fastest way to build a $10 million business is not the fastest way to build a $100 million business because focus and patience are the two enduring competitive advantages because they're so antihuman. And so this is where entrepreneurs will skyrocket. And I'll unpack that concept.
Host: 那么,你是如何看待你的业务以及AI(人工智能)这个世界的?
Original English
Host: So how are you thinking about your business, the world of AI?
Alex: 我是AI的坚定倡导者,但人们在错误的地方使用AI。比如,将思考和决策外包给AI是一个非常糟糕的决定,因为这只会让你变得更蠢。这是我目前拥有的最好的资产(指大脑)。所以我想要尽可能保持它的敏锐。最后,这可能是我能给出的最纯粹的真相,那就是我做过的最棒的财务决定。那就是……[轻哼]
Original English
Alex: I'm a big AI advocate, but people are using AI in the wrong places. like outsourcing thinking and decision-making to AI is a really bad decision because you will just get dumber. This is the best asset I've got for now. So, I want to keep it as sharp as I can. Finally, this is like the the absolute raw truth I could possibly give, which is the single best financial decision that I ever made. And that [snorts] is
频道的订阅呼吁 (Channel Subscription Appeal)
Host: 这对我来说非常有趣。我的团队给了我这份报告,向我展示了观看这个节目的你们中有多少人订阅了。根据这份报告,你们中的一些人告诉我们,你们不知怎么地就随机取消订阅了这个频道。所以,我想请大家帮个忙,如果您是本节目的常规观众并且喜欢我们在这里做的事情,现在请检查一下您是否按下了订阅按钮。就我们的订阅人数而言,这个节目正在接近一个相当重要的里程碑。所以,如果有一件简单且免费的事情您可以做来帮助我们、帮助我的团队以及这里的所有人,让这个节目保持免费,让它年复一年、周复一周地不断改进,那就是按下那个订阅按钮,并仔细检查一下您是否已经按过了。这是我唯一会要求你们做的事,我们说定了吗?如果你这样做了,我会告诉你我会怎么做。我保证每一周、每一个月,我们都会越来越努力,为你带来你想听到的嘉宾和对话。自《The Diary of a CEO》开播之初,我就一直信守着这个承诺,我绝不会让你们失望。请帮助我们,真的非常感谢。让我们继续节目。
Original English
Host: this is super interesting to me. My team given me this report to show me how many of you that watch this show subscribe. And some of you have told us according to this that you are unsubscribed from the channel randomly. So, favor to ask all of you, please could you check right now if you've hit the subscribe button, if you are a regular viewer of the show and you like what we do here. We're approaching quite a significant landmark on this show in terms of a subscriber number. So, if there was one simple free thing that you could do to help us, my team, everyone here to keep this show free, to keep it improving year over year and week over week, it is just to hit that subscribe button and to double check if you've hit it. Only thing I'll ever ask of you, do we have a deal? If you do it, I'll tell you what I'll do. I'll make sure every single week, every single month, we fight harder and harder and harder and harder to bring you the guests and conversations that you want to hear. I've stayed true to that promise since the very beginning of The Diary of a CEO and I will not let you down. Please help us. Really appreciate it. Let's get on with the show.
AI如何改变商业与工作的本质 (How AI Changes Business and Work)
Host: Alex,我觉得我们必须从AI聊起,因为我认为这不仅是我的观众,也是我与处于创业各个阶段的创业者们交流时最关注的话题。前几天我在纽约和Uber的首席执行官Dara在一起,他谈论的就是AI;然后我与那些试图建立软件公司、却找不到可防御护城河的初创公司创始人交谈,那些对话也是关于AI的。作为一名企业家,你是如何应对这一点的?我们怎样才能利用AI更好、更快地完成那些属于商业常规职能的事情呢?
Original English
Host: Alex, I I feel like we have to start with AI because it is front of mind for both I think my audience but also for entrepreneurs that I speak to at every step in the journey whether they are I was with Dara who's the CEO of Uber the other day um in New York and he that's what the conversation was about AI but then I speak to startup founders who are trying to build a software company and can't find a moat that is defensible those conversations are about AI. What is your how are you approaching this as an entrepreneur? How can we use AI to do the things that are the art the normal functions of the business at a way better, way faster, etc.
Alex: 我看到很多现象,尤其是创始人或者刚起步的人,他们正在利用AI非常快地做很多愚蠢的事情,并且他们正试图建立一些无论如何都会被模型迅速吞噬的公司,或者这些模型对于超级用户而言已经做到了这一点,而且一切只会变得越来越简单。我想问那些现在正在“AI拉满”(AI maxing)的创业者们的问题是——我再说一遍,我认为采用新技术是非常好的——你现在赚到更多钱了吗?
Original English
Alex: What I'm seeing a lot especially with founders or people are starting out is they're using AI to do a lot of dumb things really fast and they're trying to build companies that the models are going to swallow up pretty much immediately anyways or already have for super users and it's just going to like become easier. And the question that I would ask for the entrepreneurs who are you know AI maxing right now and again I think it's very good to adopt new technology is are you making more money
Host: 只是一个非常简单的问题,你现在赚到更多钱了吗?尽管你现在把token用到了极致。[笑声]
Original English
Host: just the very simple are you making more money now and even though you're token maxing [laughter]
Alex: 然后花掉了所有这些token,那么你赚的钱变多了吗?前几天我看了一家公司,他们有11个虚拟助理(VA),正在做一些我记不太清了,类似于数据清理的工作。
Original English
Alex: and spending all this tokens like are you making more money and I had a a business I looked at the other day they had 11 VAs that were doing I can't remember some sort of like data cleaning work
Host: VA。
Original English
Host: VAs
Alex: 是的,虚拟助理(virtual assistants),也就是海外的低技能劳动力在做这份工作,我觉得他们为这11个VA支付的费用大约是每个月11000美元。他们做得很好,一切都很顺利。然后他们花了35万美元试图创建一个AI系统,以取代这11个虚拟助理正在做的事情。但这意味着他们花掉了这11个虚拟助理三年以上的成本去做这些事。而且这甚至都不是他们业务的瓶颈。这只是他们能够自动化的一个流程而已。不是说他们应该将其自动化,因为那并不是限制他们增长的原因。他们仍然需要更多的客户,那(效率)并不是关键所在。这只是他们所谓“流程”的一部分之类的,但那并不是限制条件。他们没有足够的需求。
Original English
Alex: yeah virtual assistants so low-skilled labor overseas that was doing work and I think it was something in the neighborhood of like $11,000 a month is what they were paying for these 11 VAs. And they were doing a good job and it all worked. And they then spent $350,000 to try and create an AI system that would replace what these 11 virtual assistants were doing. But that means they spent three plus years of costs on what these 11 virtual assistants were doing. And it wasn't even the constraint of the business. It was just a process they could automate. Not that they should automate it because it's not the thing that's limiting their growth. And so they still need more customers and that wasn't the thing. This was like part of their their quote process or something, but that wasn't the limitation. They didn't have enough demand.
Host: 人们正在错误的地方使用AI。
Original English
Host: People are using AI in the wrong places.
Alex: 他们试图在不该创办AI企业的时候去创办AI企业。他们应该在自己的业务中使用AI。他们试图将自己包装成AI企业来做广告,而实际上你只需宣传你的客户所关心的事情,即他们问题的解决方案和结果。这些都没有改变。但因为你对它感到非常兴奋,你就认为你的客户也会对此感到兴奋。但大多数人……很多人其实害怕AI。所以这甚至不一定是个正面因素,而且它也没有让你赚更多的钱,这是最终的问题。
Original English
Alex: They're trying to start AI businesses when they shouldn't start AI businesses. They should use AI in their business. They're trying to advertise as AI businesses when you should just advertise the thing that your customer cares about, which is the solution to their problem, the outcome. None of that's changed. But because you got really excited about it, you think your customers are going to be excited about it. But most people are a lot of people are afraid of AI. Um, so it's not necessarily even a positive and it's not making you more money, which is the final question.
Host: 当你听像埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)这样的人讲话时,他说未来工作将成为一种可选项。我和几位AI专家坐在这里聊过,然后他们大体向我解释了它是什么。从一个非常简化的角度来看,这台机器内部有神经网络,其中包含大量参数,基本上就像人类大脑那样的连接。当他们训练它时,做出正确决策的参数会得到强化,而做出错误决策的参数则基本被剔除了。再声明一下,我这是极度简化了。这些大脑,这些数字大脑正变得越来越大。嗯,根据这些领域专家告诉我的话,我几乎无法想象,在某个节点,它难道不能完成人们目前正在做的大量认知工作吗?我这里真正的问题是,在一个智力变得廉价的世界里,价值将何存?
Original English
Host: When you listen to someone like Elon Musk, he says that work will become optional in in the in the future. And I sat here with a couple of experts on AI. Then they kind of explained to me what it is. And from a very simplified perspective, this machine that has these neural nets in it, which have lots of parameters, basically connections like the human brain does. And when they train it, the parameters become reinforced to the the ones that made the right decision. And the ones that made the wrong decision are like basically cut out. Again, I'm simplifying this. These brains, these digital brains are getting bigger and bigger and bigger. Um, it's it's like almost inconceivable to me based on what they've said to me, these area experts, that at some point it isn't able to do a lot of the cognitive work that people are currently doing. My question really here is like where does the value remain in a world where intelligence is cheap
Alex: 且极其丰富,甚至可以说更高级;另外,在一个机器人技术也即将到来的世界里,价值到底在哪里?我认为是承担风险和责任(stakes)。举个例子,AI可以给出世界上所有的建议,但必须有人来为这些决定拍板负责。
Original English
Alex: and abundant and um higher one could say and also in a world where robotics are coming over the horizon too like where is the value I think stakes for example AI can give all of the recommendations in the world but someone has to own the decision
Host: 所以,就目前而言——也许未来会有所不同,AI并不是任何国家的公民,它不纳税,因此必须要有一个人来承担责任。
Original English
Host: and so as of [clears throat] right now maybe it will in the future AI isn't isn't a citizen of any you know any country it doesn't pay taxes and so somebody has to be responsible
Alex: 这是一种责任/负债(liability)。是的。
Original English
Alex: it's a liability Yeah.
Host: 是的。
Original English
Host: Yeah.
Alex: 另一方面也有上行空间。把这个带入不同领域的媒体视角来看,想象一下吉米(Jimmy)说Mr. Beast(油管顶流博主)做了一个视频,而且Mr. Beast要被AI取代了。他不会被AI取代的,因为如果他有一个标题说“500万美元”的视频,而那500万美元不是真的,兰博基尼也不是真的,那就没有风险/赌注存在了。
Original English
Alex: And upside on on the flip side. And to take this into different domains from the media perspective, imagine Jimmy said Mr. Beast has a video and like Mr. Beast is going to replace by AI. He's not going to get replaced by AI because if he had a video that said $5 million and the $5 million wasn't real and the Lamborghini wasn't real, there'd be no stakes.
Host: 是的。
Original English
Host: Yeah.
Alex: 就像国际象棋对吧,现在的受欢迎程度比近代历史上任何时候都要高。但机器人下棋是可以打败人类的。
Original English
Alex: Like chess, right, has become more popular now than it's ever like than it's been in recent history. But robots can beat humans at chess.
Host: 嗯,但没人在乎。
Original English
Host: Mhm. But no one cares.
Alex: 我认为关于……
Original English
Alex: I think about
人类的赌注与风险承担
Speaker A: F1 也是如此。你还是会希望刘易斯·汉密尔顿(Lewis Hamilton)坐在赛车里。如果你把他从赛车里换出来,你就不看 F1 了,对吧?所以人类是需要有赌注(stakes)的。因此,这就涉及到了报酬这一面,即必须有人要承担责任。必须有人要拿资金去冒险。有人为代币付了钱。有人拥有这家有限责任公司(LLC)。有人拥有这些。因此,在判断力、承担风险以及随之而来的收益中,是存在价值的。
Original English
Speaker A: the F1 as well. You'd still want Lewis Hamilton in the car. You take him out the car, you stop watching F1, right? So humans want stakes. And so there's the compensation side of it, which is that somebody's going to be responsible. Someone has to risk the money. Somebody paid for the token. Somebody owns the LLC. Someone is is owns this. And so there is value in the judgment and the assumption of risk and upside.
Speaker B: 嗯。
Original English
Speaker B: Mhm.
Speaker A: 这种价值可以是金钱,或者仅仅是责任。从媒体的角度来看,我们仍然需要把这种“赌注”引入到节目中。当然,现在也会有虚构的世界,它们受到的冲击会大得多。但如果你想做一档真人秀节目,那“真实”的部分就必须存在。
Original English
Speaker A: Which can be money or just the responsibility. From a media perspective, we still have to introduce stakes into the into the show. Now, of course, there's going to be the fiction world. They're going to be much harder hit. But if you're trying to do a reality TV show, the real part has to be there.
AI 时代的独立思考与实践
Speaker B: 我觉得你身上一个非常有趣的特质,就是你花了很多时间在思考上。在一个人工智能的世界里,现在很多人都在把他们的思考外包给像 ChatGPT 或 Claude 这样的前沿模型。我们以前也聊过这个,但我们双方都认同的一点是:知道该问什么正确的问题、保持思路的清晰、拥有批判性思维以及做决策的能力,在 AI 的世界里将是至关重要的。所以我的问题是,你平时是如何产生好点子、培养好点子,并给自己留出思考问题的心理空间的?
Original English
Speaker B: One of the um things that I find really interesting about you is you spend a lot of time thinking and in a world of artificial intelligence, a lot of people are now deferring their thinking to these frontier models like chatb or claim or whatever. And um we've spoken about this before, but one of the things we both agree is that knowing the right questions to ask, clarity of thought, critical thinking, making the decision is going to be one of the things in a world of AI that's critically important. So my question to you is like how are you having good ideas cultivating good ideas and giving your space your sort of mental space to be able to think about problems?
Speaker A: 嗯。
Original English
Speaker A: Mhm.
Speaker B: 你的具体做法是什么?
Original English
Speaker B: What's your practice?
Speaker A: 我会从两个不同的角度来回答这个问题。首先,我认为就目前而言,把思考外包给 AI 仍然是一个非常糟糕的决定。我觉得任何使用过一段时间 AI 的人都知道,你可以让它顺从你的任何观点。当涉及到做决策时,这是很可怕的。所以每次,我觉得它虽然已经有一点进步了,但我还是会给它一个非常显而易见的决策去做。我会说:“好,我们打开 Claude。我们打开 OpenAI。我们把它们全都打开,然后我把同一个问题问这三个模型,结果它们的回答完全是五花八门的。” 所以我就会觉得:“好吧,这还是得靠我自己的判断。” 对吧?其次,如果你真的把决策权委托给它,你会变笨的。现在有很多这方面的研究,我相信你的播客里肯定也有嘉宾谈论过这个。对我来说,毫无疑问,我的大脑是我目前拥有的最好资产,所以我希望尽可能保持它的敏锐。千万不要把你最艰难的工作、最艰难的思考过程委派出去,因为你会因此变得非常脆弱,而且衰退得很快。过去三四个月里,我脑海中涌现出的一个新想法——我一直在反复琢磨的——就是当你把眼光放长远时会发生什么。
Original English
Speaker A: I'll I'll take this from two different angles. So first is I think outsourcing thinking to AI as of right now is still a really bad decision if you it's like I think anybody who's used AI for any period of time knows that you can get it to agree to anything. And that's frightening when it comes to making decisions. And so every time I'm like you know I think it has gotten a little better. I'll just give it like a really obvious decision to make. I'll go, "Okay, let's open up uh Claw. Let's open up OpenAI. Let's look like let's open all of them up and I'll ask the same question to all three and they're just all over the place." And so I'm like, "Okay, this is still back to my judgment." Right? Number two is that if you do delegate your decision-making to it, you get dumber. Now, there's all this research. I'm sure you've had people in the podcast who talked about it, and it's like I for sure like this is the best asset I've got for now, so I want to keep it as sharp as I can. Do not delegate the hardest work you the hardest thinking work you have because you will just get so weak so fast. A new idea that sprung into my mind over the last I'd say three to four months that I've kind of been chewing with is this idea of what happens when you go long.
长期思维与地基隐喻
Speaker B: 也就是长期思维,如果你仅仅是拉长时间线,你今天建设事物的方式会有什么不同。以及,你如何能够通过改变思考维度来击败竞争对手——比如,通常创始人们总是以 5 年然后退出为周期来思考,但如果你以 50 年为周期来思考会发生什么?在构建基础模块时,你会做出哪些不同的决定?
Original English
Speaker B: so long-term thinking and how you build differently today if you just extend the time horizon and then how you can like beat competition just by like instead of thinking in terms of okay you know founders they always think in terms of 5 years and then exit but what happens if you think in terms of like 50 years what are the different decisions you make in terms of the foundational blocks
Speaker A: 这就是为什么我会拿这些积木来,因为我之前在 YouTube 上看到你用一些积木做过演示。
Original English
Speaker A: and this is why I have these blocks cuz I saw you do something on YouTube with some blocks before
Speaker B: 你能用“地基”的概念来解释一下这种长期思维的想法吗?
Original English
Speaker B: could you explain this idea of sort of long-term thinking in terms of foundations
Speaker A: 我们在跟创业者面对面交流时会做这个练习,我觉得非常震撼。也就是说,如果我对你说:“嘿,用这堆积木给我建一座最高的塔。” 如果我说:“你只有 5 秒钟的时间。” 那么你的视野就会局限在眼前,对吧?因为你只有这么点时间。你只能想:“哦,时间到了,停手。” 如果我说:“好,假设我们现在的积木比我在 5 秒钟内能搭的要多一点。” 然后我说:“如果你有 5 分钟的时间呢?你会用不同的方式搭建吗?如果你有 5 天时间呢?如果你有 5 年时间呢?”
Original English
Speaker A: we do this exercise in person with entrepreneurs I think it's so powerful which is if I were to say, "Hey, build me the tallest tower using a series of blocks." If I say, "You have 5 seconds." You're going to you're right here, right? And that's that's all you got. And you're like, "Oh, it's time. Hands off." If I said, "Okay, now let's assume we had a little bit more blocks than I could build in in 5 seconds." And I said, "Okay, what if I said you had 5 minutes? Would you build it differently? What if I said you had 5 days? What if I said you had 5 years?
Speaker B: 而且你有无限量的积木,对吧?
Original English
Speaker B: And you have unlimited blocks, right?"
Speaker A: 没错。结果就是,地基会根据你要建的建筑的高度而彻底改变,而这取决于你思考的时间跨度。
Original English
Speaker A: Yeah. And so what happens is the foundation completely changes based on the height of the building because of the time horizon you're thinking in.
Speaker B: 是的。
Original English
Speaker B: Yeah.
Speaker A: 很久以前,我的一位导师跟我说过这句话,它让我铭记在心——建立一家价值 1000 万美元公司的最快方法,绝对不是建立一家价值 1 亿美元公司的最快方法。
Original English
Speaker A: I had a mentor tell me this um a long time ago and it like really stuck with me which is the fastest way to build a $10 million business is not the fastest way to build a $100 million business.
Speaker B: 甚至,建立一家百万美元公司的最快方法,也不是建立一家 1000 万美元公司的最快方法。比如,你可能可以很快就把一个单人代理机构做到年入一百万美元。只需要一个大客户,对吧?是的,就这么简单,你可以非常快地做到。但是如果要做到一亿,你的思考方式就必须改变。一定会改变的。所以我觉得,回到你刚才的观点,作为一名企业家,你能拥有的最持久的竞争优势之一,从思维角度来看,就是想得更长远。
Original English
Speaker B: Even in the fastest way to build a million dollar business is not the fastest way to build a $10 million business. Like you could probably build a oneperson agency to a million dollars a year pretty quick. One client, right? Yeah. It's just like it's just you could do it really quickly. getting to a hundred though, you you think about it differently. You would. And so I think um to your point, one of the still outstanding competitive advantages that you can have as an entrepreneur from a thinking perspective is just thinking longer.
Speaker A: 是的。
Original English
Speaker A: Yeah.
从造产品到造工厂
Speaker B: 这件事最近一直在我的脑海中萦绕。很有意思,因为当我开始思考这件事时……你知道原因是什么吗?是因为我在人生的这个阶段告诉自己——
Original English
Speaker B: It's really been front of mind to me. It's funny cuz when I started thinking about, do you know why it is? It's because I told myself in this season of life
Speaker A: 嗯。
Original English
Speaker A: Mhm.
Speaker B: ——我打算把我现在的公司,也就是我们名叫 Steven.com 的这家控股公司,当成一辈子的事业来做。然后我立刻就发现,我做决定时采用了一套完全不同的标准。我开始思考我所谓的“工厂”,也就是埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)举过的那个例子:制造一个原型很容易,但建造一个生产汽车的工厂要难上 50 倍。我开始痴迷于“工厂”的建设,在这个比喻中,“工厂”也可以被看作是我们为了让这家公司在长远未来保持持久生命力而打下的基础。说到埃隆,我看着他在 SpaceX(我是这家公司的投资者)和特斯拉做出的决定,他的态度是:“你知道,我本可以向福特买电池,但我要从头开始完全自己造一种新电池。” “你知道,我本可以使用别人的充电桩,但我要从头开始建立遍布全美的整个充电网络。”
Original English
Speaker B: that I was going to do the business that I'm running now, which is our holding company called Steven.com forever. And I immediately noticed that I made a different set of decisions. I started thinking about the factory I called it which is you know Elon's example of it's building a prototype is easy building the factory that builds the cars is 50x harder. I started obsessing over the factory which in in part in this analogy could also be seen as the foundations that we lay to make this durable over the long term. And then speaking of Elon I look at the decisions he made with both SpaceX which I'm an investor in and Tesla where he was like you know I could have bought the batteries from Ford but I'm going to make a completely new battery from scratch. you know, um, I could have used other people's electricity chargers, but I'm going to build the entire charging network across the United States from scratch.
Speaker A: 这是一个在做长期思考的人。然后结果就是,他们在 7 年后拥有了最坚不可摧的护城河。这就是企业的真正价值所在。而实际上,这完全只是在一个更长的时间跨度上进行思考所带来的副产品。正如你所知,企业家和创业公司的创始人们,我们总是急于想要退出,想要尽可能多地融资。
Original English
Speaker A: And this is someone who was thinking long term. And what happens then is they have the most durable moat 7 years from now. And and that's so this is that becomes the value of the business. And actually, it was all a byproduct of just thinking over a longer time horizon. entrepreneurs and startup founders as you know we like rush to like get the exit raise as much money as we can
Speaker B: 看起来你现在就像待在一栋摇摇欲坠的建筑物里一样。对,
Original English
Speaker B: and it looks like you're you're in an unstable building there. Yeah,
Speaker A: 是看起来像那样。
Original English
Speaker A: it looks like that
Speaker B: 大风一吹就倒,对吧?[笑声]
Original English
Speaker B: strong wind, right? [laughter]
Speaker A: 我一口气就能把它吹倒。
Original English
Speaker A: I could blow that over.
重建地基与反人性的耐心
Speaker B: 即使在退出的过程中,如果这是一家追求速度的公司,你会处于一种“求求你千万别出事,一切都要好好的”的状态。谁也别离职,对吧,大客户千万别流失。你就像是屏住呼吸熬这 6 个月,心里祈祷着:[笑声]“老天保佑,顺顺利利过去吧。” 然后,哪怕业绩只下滑了一两周,当他们问:“嘿,为什么可计费收入下降了?” 你就会掩饰说:“呃,不,这是暂时的波动。这在我们的预期之内。难道我没给你们发更新后的预测报告吗?” [笑声] 诸如此类的破事。我用画图来解释可能会更容易理解。但如果你要建一栋 100 层的大楼,你必须挖得更深。你必须采用不同的材料来往上建。所以,建 100 层和建 1 层相比,有 100 个决定你是要做出不同选择的。所以,真正困难的地方在于,人们什么都想要。他们说,我想要拥有建一楼平房的速度,但等他们建完一层后,他们又说:“其实吧,我想要一栋 10 层的大楼。” 但是地基不对。所以这就是为什么创业者们会经历这种事。他们会迅速飙升到这里,然后就停滞不前了。
Original English
Speaker B: Even during the exit process, if it's a fast, you know, company, it's like you're kind of like just please stay, just everything stay fine. No one leave, you know, like no big accounts go away. Like you're just like holding your breath for 6 months and being like, [laughter] please just go through. And then if it goes down to this for like a week or two and they're like, hey, why are the billables down? You're like, uh, no, it's a it's it's a momentary blip. It was expected. did was actually in our did I not send you the updated forecast? [laughter] Like it's a whole thing. Um and I'll do it with the drawing because it might be it might be a little bit easier. But like if you were to build a hundred story building, you'd have to dig way deeper. You'd have to have a much you'd have you build with different materials going up. And so there's a hundred decisions that get made that if you're doing a hundred stories versus one, [clears throat] you would you choose differently. And so where it gets really tough is that people will they want to have it all. And so they say, I want to have the speed of building a one-story building, but then they get to one story and say, well, actually, I want to get I want to have a 10-story building, but the foundation wasn't right. And so this is where entrepreneurs will they'll do this. They'll they'll skyrocket here and then they and then they plateau.
Speaker A: 然后 [清嗓子],很遗憾的是,有时候正确的做法是你必须后退两步,重新打地基,然后它才能再次往上升。嗯。
Original English
Speaker A: And [clears throat] then sometimes, unfortunately, the correct step is that you have to take two steps back, rebuild the foundation, and then it goes up again. M.
Speaker B: 所以我认为,回到你的观点,专注和耐心是两种持久的竞争优势,因为它们太反人性了。
Original English
Speaker B: And so I think to your point, focus and patience are the two enduring competitive advantages because they're so antihuman.
Speaker A: 是的,非常反人性。非常反 Instagram(反即时满足)。我这个月没什么可宣布的,因为我正在做枯燥的……
Original English
Speaker A: Yeah. So antihuman. So anti-Instagram. I've got no announcement to make this month because I'm doing boring
企业护城河与增长瓶颈
Speaker A: 就像招聘一样。
Original English
Speaker A: like hiring.
Speaker B: 就像贝佐斯,我至今仍会思考他做出的那个决定。他决定说,我要把物流公司作为我的竞争护城河。他最初只是在网上开书店,然后从那里发展到说,不,我们要拥有自己的卡车和仓库,并且要在仓储和配送方面比其他任何人都做得更好。
Original English
Speaker B: Like Basos like the the decision I still think about this like the decision that he made that he was going to say like I'm going to have a logistics company be my competitive moat. He's a like he started as a bookstore online and to go from there to like no we're going to own the trucks and the warehouses and be better at warehouse and delivery than anyone else.
Speaker A: 这就是我们要对我们的在线互联网业务所做的事情。
Original English
Speaker A: That's what we're going to do with our online internet business.
Speaker B: 就是这样,但是现在谁能撼动亚马逊的地位?真的很难。同样有趣的是,在那特定的时刻,当创业者遇到这种情况时,他们会在街上走向像你我这样的人,然后说
Original English
Speaker B: Like just but like who can unseat Amazon right now? Really tough. What's interesting as well is that that particular moment there where the entrepreneur gets this they they come to people like me and you in the street and they say
Speaker A: 他们会说我无法突破你的瓶颈。是的。
Original English
Speaker A: they are I can't get past your bottleneck. Yeah.
Speaker B: 他们本应该怎么做呢?很多创业者来找我,他们的营收可能达到了,我不知道,50万,或者100万,然后他们来找我说,我不知道该怎么办了。我该如何从这里做到1000万?
Original English
Speaker B: What is it that they should have done? So many entrepreneurs come up to me, they might hit, I don't know, 500k revenue, a million revenue, and they come up to me and they go, I don't know what to do. How do I get to 10 million from here?
Speaker A: 是的。
Original English
Speaker A: Yeah.
Speaker B: 我觉得你在某种程度上是说,他们本应该在更早的时候就做出决定,从零开始建立一种稍微不同类型的公司。要我说,百万美元级别的企业主在试图做到千万级别时所缺失的,或者说他们本可以做得不同的是,他们应该在产品市场契合(PMF)阶段停留更长时间,或者努力确保进来的客户继续愿意在他们身上花钱,这些客户可能会周期性地消费。比如,如果你买了一款喜欢的汽水,你会继续买。这不像是在订阅,但你会定期购买。另一方面是订阅收入,这才是真正的经常性收入,比如你的 Netflix 订阅之类的。但他们知道,当客户与企业接触时,他们会留下来,而且这笔钱会持续产生,这就是它能够叠加的原因。所以,如果我们从最基本的层面来想,如果每次你获得一个客户,他们都永远不离开,那么这家企业除了增长什么都不会发生。
Original English
Speaker B: And I think in part what you're saying is they they should have made a decision earlier on to build a slightly different type of company from zero. I'll say what the million-dollar business owner is missing when they're trying to get to 10 is what they would have done differently is they would have stayed longer in the product market fit phase or trying to make sure that the customers who come in keep wanting to spend money with them which they either do periodically. So like if you buy a soda that you like, you keep buying it. It's not like you're on a subscription but you just buy it regularly. On the other hand, there's subscription revenue which is truly recurring uh like your Netflix subscription, whatever. But they know that when that customer comes in contact with the business, they're going to stay and that money is going to keep going, which is what allows it to stack. And so if we think at the most basic level, if every time you get a customer, they never left, then the business will do nothing but grow.
Speaker A: 它(清嗓子)要么保持不变,要么只要你获得一个新客户就会增长,它只会不断增长。而对于百万美元级别的创业者来说,困难在于,做到100万你可能可以很快完成,或者1000万。我知道大家会觉得,我简直不敢相信。但我向你保证,只要你学到足够的技能,你就能做到。嗯,但这发生得可能非常快,因为要实现这一点并不需要太多复杂的环节。但要做到1亿或者10亿美元的营收,我还没做到10亿,但我有信心我知道我们需要做什么。百万美元级别的创业者,其实是在试图把10亿美元的新销售额塞进一年里。
Original English
Speaker A: It [clears throat] will either stay the same or it will grow whenever you get a new customer, it just keeps growing. And the difficulty of the the the $1 million entrepreneur is that getting to a million dollars, you can do really quickly or 10. And I know that the the world is like, I can't believe that. I promise you, you can do it if you just learn enough skills. Um, but that can happen really quickly because it just doesn't take a lot of moving parts to make it happen. Getting to a hundred or getting to a billion dollars in revenue, I haven't gotten to a billion yet, but I I feel confident I know what we need to do. The million-dollar entrepreneur is trying to fit a billion dollars of new sales in in one year.
Speaker B: 嗯。(清嗓子)
Original English
Speaker B: Mhm. [clears throat]
Speaker A: 问题就在于,在明年年底,因为他们为了赚到那一百万而签下的所有客户都流失了,因为他们的产品不够好,他们不得不回到市场中去销售,再拉来一百万的客户。所以他们会想:“哦,如果我想一年赚200万,我就得去把销量翻倍。”这没错,但如果我们比较两家公司,假设我们有A公司和B公司。好的,我们有A公司,B公司。他们每年都卖出100个新产品。假设B公司流失了这100个客户,但他们想实现翻倍,因为作为创业者,他会觉得“我必须增长”。所以他在第二年卖给了200人。那么假设他的营收是200万,第一年是100万。假设到了第三年,他卖出了300件产品,但他又流失了那200个客户,因为他没有用户粘性。所以他赚了300万。好的,酷。(嗤鼻声)现在,假设A公司第一年卖出100件,他们赚了100万。他们留住了这100个客户。好的,假设这家公司每年获取新客户的数量保持不变。所以今年有100个新客户进来,但他们也留住了去年的100个。所以现在他们有200个客户,营收200万。然后在第三年,他们留住了原来的100个,以及第二年的100个。所以现在他们总共有300个客户,因为他们又获得了100个新客户,营收300万。所以纸面上看,你的创业者朋友跑来跟你说:“嘿,我有一家营收300万的公司,他也有一家营收300万的公司。你会投资哪一家?”
Original English
Speaker A: And that's the problem is that at the at the end of next year, because all the customers they signed up to make their million dollars are gone because they aren't good enough, they have to go back to the market market and sell and get another million dollars of customers. So they think, "Oh, if I if I want to get to $2 million a year, I have to go sell twice as many customers." Which is true, but if we had to compare two companies, let's say we have company A and company B. All right, we got company A, company B. They both are selling a hundred, you know, new widgets a year. Okay, let's say company B loses all of the hundred, but they want to double because it's an entrepreneur. He's like, I got to grow. And so he sells 200 people year two. Well, then let's say he's got $2 million in revenue, and he's got $1 million revenue here. And let's say year three, uh, he sells 300 units, but he lost all 200 again because he has no stickiness. And so he makes $3 million. Okay, cool. [snorts] Now, let's say this company A sells 100 year one, they make a million dollars. They keep all 100 customers. Okay, but let's say that that company keeps the same number of people they're selling new. So 100 new customers come in this year, but they keep their old hundred. So now they also have 200 customers and do $2 million. And then year three, they keep their same 100 and then the 100 from year two. So now they have 300 total customers because they got 100 new and they have three million. So both of these businesses on paper, your entrepreneur friend comes to you and says, "Hey, I've got a $3 million business and I've got a $3 million business. Which one do you invest in?"
Speaker B: 嗯。(清嗓子)现在,你我每天都在做这件事。我们会说:“毫无疑问,我们选这个(A公司),而不是那个(B公司)。”因为明年他又得去向600个新客户推销。现在,随着发展,你可以在财务报表上看到问题所在,因为我可以告诉你,获取300个新客户的成本,远比获取100个新客户并且有200个老客户持续付费的成本要高得多。
Original English
Speaker B: Mhm. [clears throat] Now you and I do this every day. And we're like, "All day we [snorts] do this one, not this one." Because next year he's got to go and sell 600 new customers. Now, where this gets, you can start seeing this in the financials because I can tell you that the cost of getting 300 new customers costs significantly more than the cost of getting a 100 new customers and having 200 customers that are existing and still paying you.
Speaker A: 所以,你会在底线上看到利润被压缩,这就是,你懂的,“不惜一切代价增长”成为一个问题的时候。
Original English
Speaker A: And so, you're going to see that in the bottom line getting compressed and this is where, you know, growth at all costs becomes a problem.
Speaker B: 但对于这位创业者来说,他花时间去弄清楚如何留住全部的100位客户。现在,如果他碰上了你我的分销渠道,然后突然间我们说,太好了,现在我知道我可以给这东西带来一万名新客户,那么这就会变成一门年入十亿的生意,因为我们首先解决了最重要的问题,那就是收入留存下来了。所以当人们在匆忙中创业时,他们做出来的东西不够好,结果你扩张得非常快。这就是为什么懂营销和销售可能会很危险,因为你营销和销售的能力越强,你营收增长得就越快,但你会达到一个点,你会有一定的销售速度瓶颈,我每个月只能卖给100人、200人、500或者1000人,不管多少。而在那个时候,你只有不断去寻找更多的分销渠道,因为你的“公交车后门有漏洞”,一旦销售停止,生意就会崩溃。而且我想说,这种情况比另一种情况——也就是你实际上有一门极具用户粘性的生意——要常见得多。
Original English
Speaker B: But for this entrepreneur, he spent the time to figure out how to get all 100 customers to stay. Now if he encounters your distribution or my distribution and then all of a sudden we say great now I know that I can bring this thing 10,000 new customers then this thing becomes a billion dollar year business because we solve the most important part first which is that the revenue stays and so when people build in a rush they don't build a good enough thing and so as a result you scale really quickly and this is where knowing marketing and sales can be dangerous because the better you are at marketing and sales the faster you can grow revenue but you get to a point where you you have a certain velocity of sales I can only sell 100 people or 200 people or 500 a thousand people a month, whatever it is. And at that point, you either have to always be seeking more distribution because you have a hole in the back of your bus, but the moment the sales stop, the business craters. And I would say that that is more common than the alternative, which is that you actually have a sticky business.
关于定价与利润率
Speaker A: 人们在街上遇到我跟我聊的另一件事,当他们达到百万营收的那个阶段时,他们会说,你知道吗,我的客户很喜欢我。他们不断回头,但我已经没有时间了。基本上就是这样。
Original English
Speaker A: The other thing people talk to me about when they come up to me in the street, when they hit that moment where they're doing about a million in revenue, is they say, you know, my customers love me. They keep coming back, but I've ran out of time. Basically,
Speaker B: 是的,这很有意思,因为很多时候如果我也遇到同样的情况,有人说,嘿,我的时间不够用了。我会问的第一个问题是,“你的利润率是多少?”如果他们的利润率非常微薄,他们就请不起帮手。那是症状,而不是根本原因。根本原因要么是他们的报价不对,也就是说他们提供的东西,价格和交付条件相比太低了。你付出的太多而索取的太少,(清嗓子)
Original English
Speaker B: yeah, this is an interesting one because a lot of times if I have the same response where someone says, hey, I'm running out of time. The first question I'll ask is, "What's your margin?" If they have really thin margins, they can't afford to get help. That's the symptom, but not the root cause. The root cause is either that their offer is incorrect in that what they're offering, the price and the terms of their delivery are too low compared to each other. You're offering too much for too little, [clears throat]
Speaker A: 或者你没有一个能让那种价值向别人展示出来的营销或销售体系。所以,他们不会愿意支付溢价。
Original English
Speaker A: or you don't have a marketing or sales motion that allows that value to be demonstrated to someone. So, they'd be willing to pay a premium.
Speaker B: 关于定价,那么你是如何看待定价的呢?这是一件主观的事情还是客观的事情?我是否应该去看看市场上其他人的收费标准,然后据此来决定,还是说我觉得自己值多少钱就定多少钱?(笑声)
Original English
Speaker B: On pricing, then how do you think about pricing? Is it a subjective thing or is it an objective thing? I do I go look at the market and see what everyone else is charging and then decide that or is it what I feel like I deserve? [laughter]
Speaker A: 我觉得我们在其中觉得自己应得多少,是最不重要的。
Original English
Speaker A: I think what we feel we deserve matters the least in that in that
Speaker B: 我觉得这完全取决于客户愿意付多少钱。因此,对于新创业者来说,最困难的部分之一是,他们是从自己的钱包出发去销售的。
Original English
Speaker B: I think it's all about what the customer is willing to pay. And so one of the hardest parts for for newer entrepreneurs is they sell out of their own wallet.
Speaker A: 你是什么意思?
Original English
Speaker A: What do you mean?
Speaker B: 比如,如果我认识一个非常擅长修车的人,他们会觉得:“这又没多难。你只需,你懂的,在这里拧几下螺丝就行了。”就觉得“我才不会花钱请人做这个呢。我免费就能做。”但情况其实是:“是啊,但我不想自己动手,而且我愿意花很多钱请你来做,因为我不想亲自修我的车。”因此,正因为这对你来说很容易,你就认为这对所有人来说都很容易。而因为你认为这对所有人都很容易,你就不愿意为此收取高价。
Original English
Speaker B: And so it's like if I have somebody who's really good at fixing cars, they're like, "Well, it's not that hard. You just, you know, do a little screws here." Like I would I wouldn't pay anybody for that. Like I do it for free. It's like, "Yeah, but I don't want to do it, and I would pay you a lot to do it cuz I don't want to fix my car." And so, because it's been easy for you, you think it's easy for everyone. And because you think it's easy for everyone, you're not willing to charge a lot for it.
Speaker A: 结果就是,他们陷入了定价过低、利润率不足的恶性循环。然后导致的后果就是,他们不得不做更多的工作并且
Original English
Speaker A: And so, they get into this vicious cycle of undercharging and having not enough margin. And then as a result, having to do more of the work and
招人与放权的困境
Alex: 那么如果他们接到了更多的工作,他们不想拒绝。因此,他们基本上把自己的工作量排得满满的。以至于他们没有多余的产能,也没有时间去培训任何人,没有时间去面试,也没有时间,或者说没有现金去雇佣下一个人。所以通常当有人说“我忙不过来”时,如果我问“你的利润率高吗?”,如果答案是“对,老兄,你的利润率有70%”,那你就去雇人帮忙啊。如果他们利润不高,那就是往前推两三步,是产品定价错了,销售方式错了,通常是定价错误。
Original English
Alex: then if they get more work coming, they don't want to say no. And so, then they basically fill up their entire plate. that they have no excess capacity but that they can't they don't have the time to train anyone they don't have the time to interview they don't have the time or or the or the cash right to to afford the next person and so usually when someone's like I'm overwhelmed if I say do you have a lot of margin then either yeah you're running 70% margin dude like hire some help if they don't then it's two or three steps earlier where the offer is wrong the sales motion's wrong which typically they're mispriced
Interviewer: 你是不是经常遇到这种情况,人们会对你说,嗯,你知道的,Alex,我试过雇人,结果他们搞砸了,所以我不能、我没法信任任何人能把事情做得像我一样好,而且客户都喜欢我。
Original English
Interviewer: do you get it all the time where people say to you um you know Alex I tried to hire someone and they up and so I can't I can't trust trust anybody to do it as well as I can and the clients love me.
Alex: 我认为这是虚荣心在作祟。
Original English
Alex: I think it's ego.
Interviewer: 是的。
Original English
Interviewer: Yeah.
Alex: 我觉得我们想要显得自己很特别,我觉得我们喜欢被需要的感觉,而且我认为,解决你的情感需求不是企业的职责。
Original English
Alex: I think we want to be special and I think we like to be needed and I think that it is not the business's job to solve your emotional needs.
Interviewer: 嗯。
Original English
Interviewer: Mhm.
Alex: 企业的职责是服务客户。
Original English
Alex: The business's job to serve the customers.
Interviewer: 嗯。
Original English
Interviewer: Mhm.
Alex: 所以我们并没有自己想象的那么独特。如果你能回到过去,你可以用十分之一的时间教会自己,因为你知道自己犯过的所有错误,以及最终真正行之有效的正确做法。所以这就很好。与其花十倍于你第一次学习的时间,不如回到过去,就好像你在用正确的方法教别人一样。
Original English
Alex: And so we are not as unique as we think. If you could go back in time, you could teach yourself in a tenth of time because you know all the mistakes that you made and the right things that actually ended up working. So it's like great. instead of taking 10 times as long you did to learn it the first time, go back as though you were teaching it the right way to somebody else.
不要试图寻找“独角兽”
Interviewer: 这样你就可以大大缩短教别人如何做这份工作的时间。而大多数时候,创始人寻找的是一头独角兽,对吧?他们会觉得,“好吧,嗯,我有两个员工,但我什么都做。所以我需要雇一个跟我一样的人,然后把其他所有事情都包揽下来。”但实际上,事情不是这么运作的。
Original English
Interviewer: And so you can collapse the time it takes to teach someone how to do the job. And most times what founders are looking for is a unicorn, right? They're like, "Okay, uh, I have two employees and I do everything. And so I need to hire someone who's just going to be like me and just do everything else." It's like, it's not going to work that way.
Alex: 所以我喜欢用这个小比喻,那就是,我们有了独角兽的角。这画得太糟糕了。来吧。我们画上了…… [笑声] 好了。继续。我们给它画上一点蹄子。也许再加点尾巴。画好了。这就行了。我们还需要加点闪光,对吧?因为这是独角兽特有的。好的。再加一点。但他们试图用独角兽来取代自己。可是世界上没有独角兽。我们都知道这一点。所以他们一次又一次地面试,结果永远找不到任何人,因为他们找不到独角兽。但是如果你想,“我该如何找到一只有角的动物呢?”好吧,你可以去找一头犀牛。好的,我有一头犀牛了。它有角。这就像是,好的,然后我还需要一匹马。好吧,我可以去找一匹马,然后我得找到闪光。所以,我会抓一些萤火虫来当闪光,然后再找一匹马就是马了。就是这样,与其说“哦,必须有人过着跟我完全一样的生活,经历过完全一样的考验和磨难,才能弄明白我所知道的所有独特的东西。”倒不如说,不。
Original English
Alex: And so I use this little analogy that I like, which is, so we have our our horn of the unicorn. This is going to be so bad. Here we go. So, we've got our [laughter] All right. Here we go. We'll give it a little hoof. Maybe a little some tail. Here we go. And here we go. And we need to have some some sparkle, right? Cuz it's a unicorn special. Okay. Let's go a little donk there. But they're trying to replace themselves with a unicorn. But there are no unicorns. And we know this. And so they go through interview and interview and then they never find anybody because they can't find a unicorn. But if you're like, "How do I find an animal that's got a horn?" Well, you could go find a rhino. Okay, I've got a rhino. They've got the horn. It's like, okay, and then I need a horse. Well, I can go find a horse and then I got to find the sparkle. So, I'll get some fireflies for the sparkle and then I'll get a horse for the horse. And so, just like that, instead of saying, "Oh, I someone has to live my exact life and have gone through the exa exact same trial and tribulations to figure out all the unique things that I know." It's like, no,
Interviewer: 他们试图在一个人的身上找到那些更容易在三个人身上找到的东西。
Original English
Interviewer: they try to find in one person what they can more easily find in three.
Alex: 这也可以算是情感建议,不是吗?[笑声]
Original English
Alex: This is relationship advice as well, isn't it? [laughter]
Interviewer: 没错。要求你的伴侣对你来说包罗万象,
Original English
Interviewer: Right. Demanding your your partner uh be all things to you,
Alex: 你的教练,你的……你知道的,你的导师,你的心理医生,你最铁杆的啦啦队长。是的,正是如此。就是这样,而且我认为在某种程度上,这其中有一个不断自我强化的虚荣心因素,那就是我觉得自己如此特别,没有人能做到我能做的事。我认为这是一个我们乐于相信的非常有吸引力的谎言。
Original English
Alex: your coach, your uh you know, your guru, your therapist, your biggest cheerleader. Yeah, it's exactly that. It's it's just and I think in some ways there's an ego element that I think is very reinforcing which is that I'm so special, no one can do what I can do. And I think that's a very attractive lie that we like to believe.
Interviewer: 我想,你在这些早期创业者身上看到的这种不安全感和恐惧也是其内在的一部分,那就是如果我雇了另一个人,我现在就有了给他们发工资的责任。现在只有我一个人,很安全。我能掌控局面。嗯,但如果我招了其他人,他们有房贷,有家庭。所以现在,现在这很可怕。所以,给自己找借口来掩饰恐惧的一个好方法就是说,“看,我试过了。我没法信任任何人。我找不到好人。
Original English
Interviewer: I guess there's also inherent in that um insecurity and fear that you see in these early entrepreneurs that if I hire another person, I now have the responsibility of paying them. Right now it's me, it's safe. I can control this. Um, but if I bring on other people, they've got mortgages and families. So now, now it's terrifying. So, a good way to justify my fear to myself is by saying, "Look, I tried. I can't trust anybody. I couldn't find anybody good.
Alex: 我想大概只能靠我自己一个人单干了。”
Original English
Alex: I guess it's just going to have to be me, myself, and I."
Interviewer: 而且我认为,如果那是你想要的,那就去干吧。是的。我只是觉得,我认为在未来会有越来越多的“单干族”。现在就已经有了。我觉得这是一个关于目标的问题。你到底想要什么?
Original English
Interviewer: And I think if that's what you want, like, go for it. Yeah. I just like I I think I think there's I think there's going to be a lot more solreers, you know, in the in the coming future. There already are. I think it's it's a goal question. What do you want?
提高招聘标准
Alex: 你刚开始招人的时候犯过什么错?
Original English
Alex: What mistakes did you make when you started hiring?
Interviewer: 哦,我的标准不够高。
Original English
Interviewer: Oh, my bar wasn't high enough.
Alex: 好的。我认为在最基础的层面上,就像如果你去除了其他一切,工作还剩下什么?我认为坚守标准留存了下来,因为如果你是那个负责人,那你就必须是那个决定什么是“足够好”的人。
Original English
Alex: Okay. I think at the most basic level like what is the job like if you remove everything else what survives and I think holding the standard survives because if you're the one responsible then you have to be the one who determines what is good enough.
Interviewer: 这是 [清嗓子] 我的观点,在任何一个部门,职位最高的人应该有最高的标准,如果有一天某个人对 ACU 的标准比我还要高,那么那个人应该来管理它,而不是我。
Original English
Interviewer: It's [clears throat] my view that in every given department the person who's highest up should have the highest standard and if somebody ever gets to a point where they have a higher standard for ACU than I do they should run it not me.
谈论创业与真正开始
Alex: 这里下面应该有个按钮,如果它显示已订阅,那你已经订阅了。如果它显示为订阅者,那意味着你还没有。如果你还没有订阅,能不能请你帮个忙,点一下那个按钮?这对这个节目的帮助超出你的想象。而且根据算法,你是一个看过我们节目但还没有点那个按钮的人。非常感谢。你有没有发现被问到的问题类型发生了变化?因为世界已经变了,人们现在对个人品牌或者商业或者其他什么东西更感兴趣了。大家现在问你的问题有新花样吗?
Original English
Alex: There should be a button just down below here and if it says subscribed you're already subscribed. If it says subscriber, that means you're not yet. And if you're not subscribed, please could you do us a favor and hit that button? It helps the show more than you know. And according to the algorithm, you're someone that watches our show, but you haven't yet hit that button. Thank you so much. Have you seen a change in the types of questions that you're being asked? Because because the world has changed, people are more interested in personal branding or business or whatever else. Are people asking you new questions?
Interviewer: 不,其实我没觉得有。是的。
Original English
Interviewer: No, actually, I don't think. Yeah.
Alex: 你一般都会被问到什么问题?我经常被问到比如:“嘿,我正在考虑做这件事。你觉得怎么样?”我正在考虑开始做这种类型的生意。我正在考虑成立一家播客代理公司。你觉得怎么样?我觉得怎么样根本不重要。[笑声] 我的反应就是,那我就直接问下一个问题,也就是,好吧,那你目前都做了些什么?
Original English
Alex: What are the questions that you get asked? I get asked a lot of like, "Hey, I'm thinking about doing this this thing. What do you think?" I'm thinking about starting this kind of business. I'm thinking about starting a podcast agency. What do you think? It doesn't matter what I think. [laughter] I'm like, and so I'll just ask the next question, which is like, well, what have you done so far?
Interviewer: 你为什么这么问?
Original English
Interviewer: Why'd you ask that?
Alex: 嗯,因为十次有九次答案是,嗯,我是说,我还没做,我只是在考虑。我就想,好吧,那其实什么都没发生。那些跑来找你说他们正在考虑做某件事,但实际上什么都没做的人,到底是咋回事?
Original English
Alex: Well, because the answer nine times out of 10 is, well, I mean, I haven't I was just thinking about it. I'm like, okay, well then nothing's happened. what's going on there with those people that come up to you and they say they're thinking about something but they haven't done anything about it.
Interviewer: 我猜他们是想跟我聊些商业相关的事情,而这是他们唯一能聊的商业话题,所以这可能就是他们谈论这个或者提起这个的原因。嗯,或者他们想感觉,在某种程度上这有点像是一种拖延策略,或者是觉得我不知怎么地会给他们一个答案,而这个答案能最终帮他们克服开始的障碍。但大多数人之所以开始,是因为对他们来说,开始感觉像是一件非常模糊的事情,就像我刚才准备说的,你有没有遇到过自己不知道怎么做的事情?
Original English
Interviewer: I'm guessing that they want to talk to me about business stuff and so this is the only business related thing that they can talk about and so that's probably why they talk about it or they bring it up. Um or they want to feel like in some ways it's kind of like procrastive procrastination or that I'm going to somehow give them one answer that's going to like finally get them over the hump of starting. But most people start because one starting feels like this very amorphous thing when when like I was about to say like has there ever been something that you don't know how to do?
Alex: 嗯,每当我要去处理一些我不知道怎么做的事情时,它总是让人感觉很模糊。就像是一个庞然大物,我不知道从何下手。就像,我该怎么……我该怎么从其中抓住一部分呢?所以,因为我曾去攻克过像创办企业这样模糊的事情,而这实际上毫无意义。你必须把事情分解成小得多的行动步骤。这就是为什么对我来说,创业最基础的事情就是去注册一个有限责任公司 (LLC),[清嗓子]
Original English
Alex: Well, whenever I approach something that I don't know how to do, it always feels amorphous. It's like this big thing and I don't know where to start. Like how do like how do I grab onto a piece of it? And so having gone and attacked like these amorphous things like start a business which actually means nothing. You have to break things down to much smaller steps of action. That's why for me the most basic thing to start a business is like get an LLC, [clears throat]
Interviewer: 开个银行账户,具备处理资金流动的能力,然后去问一个陌生人,你能不能为他们做点什么来换取报酬。一旦你做完这四件事,恭喜你,你就是个企业主了。你已经击败了95%的人,而且你也把自己的头衔从“想要创业的人”变成了真正的创业者。我认为这是最……就像,嗯,当一个顾客从你这里买东西,而不是仅仅消费你的免费内容时,他们的身份就完全改变了。他们现在是顾客,这意味着他们将来从你这里购买东西的可能性,要远大于那些从来没有买过东西的人。这就是为什么,你知道,追加销售和续订要比让别人第一次掏钱购买容易得多,对吧?所以我认为,同样的道理,对于我们作为创业者,或者那些渴望成为创业者的人来说,就像是去赚第一块钱,然后一旦你尝到了那种滋味,就像是,哦——
Original English
Interviewer: open a bank account, have the ability to process money, and then ask a stranger if you can do something for them in exchange for money. As soon as you do those four things, congratulations, you're a business owner. You've already beaten like 95% of people who and you've also changed your title from entrepreneur to entrepreneur. And I think that is one of the most mo just like um when when a customer buys from you versus just consuming your free stuff, their identity completely changes. They're now a customer which means they're far more likely to purchase uh future things from you than somebody who's not bought something. That's why you know ascensions and renewals are much easier than getting somebody to buy the first time, right? And so I think to the same degree for us as entrepreneurs or people who aspire to be an entrepreneur, it's like go make the first dollar and then as soon as you have that taste of like oh
创业初期的迷茫与恐惧
Interviewer: 我真的接触到了这件事情的核心。我明白。我只需要让他们给我钱去做点什么。或者我可以创造出某个东西,然后让他们向我购买,接下来我就得想办法如何制造出更多,对吧?如果这确实是一门生意的话。但这只是最基础的层面。除此之外的一切都只是让人感到困惑。如果你能回到起点,在 Alex 刚开始创业时在他耳边说些什么,一些能让这段旅程变得更轻松、更有利可图,或者其他什么建议。作为起点,你会给他提供哪些层面的建议?[叹气和深呼吸]
Original English
Interviewer: this isn't I I actually grabbed the corner of this thing. I I I understand. And I just got to get them to give me money to do something. Or I can build something and then have them buy it from me and then I have to figure out how to build more of them, right? If it's a thing. But like that's it at the most basic level. And everything else is just is is confusion. If you could go back to the starting blocks and whisper something in Alex's ear when he was starting up advice that would have made the journey easier, more profitable, whatever. What is what are the sort of layers of advice you would have given him at this as starting blocks? [sighs and gasps]
Alex: 所以我其实经常思考这个问题。如果我回到过去,看到一个老版的自己,如果他现在出现在这个房间里,假设是 20 年后的他,正在看着我,我希望他什么都不要说,因为那意味着我的选择奏效了。现在,如果我回到过去,假设我还没有迈出那一步,我还没有能力完成那个跨越,在那种情况下我会说的是,你必须决定,你是否比别人更在乎你自己的未来,而不是在乎别人如何看待你的未来。某个版本的你必须死去。要么是你渴望成为的那个版本的你,要么是别人希望你成为的那个版本的你。关键在于,你和自己相处的时间要比他们长得多。我认为,在创业的最初阶段,一切都归结于一件事,那就是恐惧,而且这种恐惧是合理的。感到害怕是正常的。因为有太多的风险,有成吨的未知事物,有太多你不知道的东西。但我唯一还能说的是,这也让你和每一个刚开始创业的人处在了完全相同的位置。他们当时也不知道。而唯一能知道的方法就是去开始。并且要怀揣信念:即使你不知道上山的路该怎么走,但当你向山上迈进时,雾气就会开始消散。雾气会一直存在,但你总是能够看清眼前的几步路。因此,你的责任就是只走你能看清的眼前的路。就是这样。一旦你走出了这些步伐,接下来的步骤就会变得清晰。我认为,这就是为什么人们会痴迷于想要了解全貌。这是因为我们渴望确定性。我们想知道,如果我们做了所有这些事情,它就一定会成功。但你无法知道。你想要从一个根本不会给你任何确定性的世界里寻求确定性。如果你对此感到不适,那么创业可能真的不适合你。
Original English
Alex: So I've actually thought about this a lot. If I went back in time and I saw an older version of myself, if he appeared in this room right now, let's say 20 years from now, is looking at me, my hope is that he would say nothing because it would mean that it worked. Now, if I if I was going back and let's say that I I I hadn't taken the step and I hadn't been able to to make the jump, what I say in that instance um is you have to decide whether you care more about your future than what other people think about your future. Someone's version of you has to die. It's either your desired version of you or someone else's desired version of you. And the thing is you're going to be with you a lot longer than they are. I think everything in the very beginning of entrepreneurship comes down to one thing which is fear and justified. It's it makes sense to be afraid. Like there's a lot of risk. There's a ton of unknown. There's so much stuff that you don't know. But the only thing I can also say is that it also puts you in the exact same position as every other person who started entrepreneurship. They didn't know. And the only way to know is to start. and to have faith that you will not know the way up the mountain, but as you walk up the mountain, the fog starts to clear. And the fog will always be there, but you'll always be able to see the couple steps in front of you. And so, your responsibility is to only take the steps that you can see in front of you. That is it. And then once you take those steps, the next steps will become clear. And I think that's where there's an obsession with knowing the entirety. And and it's because we want certainty. We want to know that if we do all of these things, it's going to work. And you don't. You want certainty from a world that will give you none. And if you were uncomfortable with that, entrepreneurship might not be for real.
Interviewer: 是的。
Original English
Interviewer: Yeah.
拥抱尴尬与失败的具体化
Alex: 但是,即使我这么说,我也几乎有点后悔这么说,因为我刚开始的时候也是非常厌恶风险的。人们现在看到我做的内容,或者他们现在看到你,觉得你如此自信,在播客上表现得那么出色,类似这样的感觉。但我敢肯定,你做的第一期播客,当你回头看的时候,你也绝对会觉得很尴尬,对吧?我曾发布过一个视频,那就像是我制作的第一批内容,我在视频里对自己的第一个内容做反应,那真的非常糟糕。太可怕了。但问题是,你必须愿意去承受那种尴尬。
Original English
Alex: But I I even say that and I almost I almost I almost regret saying that because I was so riskaverse when I started like people see the content now or they see you now and you're so confident and and great on podcast and like but I'm sure the first podcast you did, you like look at it and you just absolutely cringe, right? I had a video that I put out that was like the first content that I made that I was like reacting to my own first content and it's horrendous. It's horrible. But the thing is is that you have to be willing to be cringe.
Interviewer: 你必须拥抱尴尬。你不会看起来很酷的。那绝对不好看。你会很差劲,每个人都会知道你很差劲,你自己也会知道你很差劲。
Original English
Interviewer: You must embrace cringes. You will not be cool. It will not look good. You will suck and everyone will know you suck and you will know you suck.
Alex: 但再说一次,问题在于,我究竟是更在乎他们眼中的我,还是更在乎我自己想要成为的我?我是愿意成为一个不断进步的半成品,还是因为我想维持当前的生活地位而不愿意去行动?但事实是,你正处于一个局部的最高点,而你内心可能有一种渴望——如果我在对年轻的自己说话的话——渴望达到一个比我现在更高的顶点。感觉自己有能力做得更多,但我太害怕失去我已经为自己建立的这微小的一切。然而现实是,在所有摆在你面前的道路中,你唯一可以确定的保证就是:如果你继续停留在当前的道路上,你绝对无法得到你想要的东西。
Original English
Alex: But again, it's do I care more about their version of me or my version of me? And am I willing to be a work in progress or am I unwilling to do it because I want to keep my current station in life? But the thing is is that you're at a local maximum and there's a desire in you probably if I'm talking to my younger self to be at a higher maximum than I am right now. feel like I'm capable of doing more, but I'm so afraid of risking this tiny little bit that I've built for myself. But the the the reality is that the only guarantee that you have of all the paths in front of you is that you stay on the current path, you will not get what you want.
Interviewer: 嗯嗯。
Original English
Interviewer: Mhm.
Alex: 所以,如果你付诸行动,你还有机会得到你想要的;但如果你停滞不前,那机会就是零。我认为,正是这些思维过程真正促使我采取了行动——因为我知道,如果我没有去尝试,我百分之百保证会对自己的生活感到不满。然后就是极其详细地推演“B计划”。我认为对于恐惧来说,这也是一个非常重要的点,那就是:恐惧只存在于模糊之中,绝不会存在于具体的事物里。困惑也是如此,对吧?所以,这种恐惧是:我要去做这件事,然后我可能会失败。“失败”并不是一个具体的概念。然后接着想:接下来大家都会讨厌我,然后最终我会被社会排斥甚至死掉。我们总是把一切灾难化,因为我们是进化的生物,对吧?我们是哺乳动物。但是如果你真的去思考,什么是失败……失败到底意味着什么?我去请人购买,他们拒绝了。这算失败吗?如果我去问另一个人呢?如果我问了 100 个人呢?好吧。那如果我问了 100 个人,所有 100 个人都说不呢?我被允许改变我正在提供的产品吗?可以的。好的。那你就再去找另外 100 个人,也许其中就有一个人会说好。好的。但是,即便是在那段那一百个人都拒绝你的时间里,假设你辞掉了工作,所以你没有了收入。好吧。那摆在你面前的选项有哪些?你能去谈谈……你能去睡在朋友的沙发上吗?你能夹着尾巴灰溜溜地回老家吗?其实,只有当你放弃尝试的时候,你才是夹着尾巴的。如果你回家然后说,“爸爸妈妈,我想攒一点资本,这样我就能延长我的缓冲期,我就能继续去追求这个宏大的目标。”爸爸妈妈可能会觉得这很酷。也可以找朋友。也可以是或者可能找 10 个朋友一起合租。正因为我当时是合租一个卧室,所以我住的那个房子里一共有六个人。嗯,我和另一个人合租了其中一间卧室。我每个月交 400 块钱,我在地板上铺了个床垫,而且我几乎从不在那里呆着。但那种感觉就像是,我努力把我的生活开销降到了最低。我认为尤其重要的一点是,人们往往不愿意为了实现他们的长期目标,去牺牲他们短期的生活方式和表面上的体面。因此,他们被自己的生活方式给死死地拷住了。
Original English
Alex: So there is a chance that you get what you want if you move, but there is zero chance if you stay. And I think those were some of the thought processes that actually got me to take action was knowing that I for sure guaranteed 100% would be dissatisfied with my life if I had not taken the shot. and then playing out plan B with excruciating detail. And I think that's also one of the big ones for fear is that like fear only exists in the vague, never in the specific. Also, so does confusion, right? So the fear is I'm going to do this thing and I'm going to fail. Fail's not specific. And I'm and then everyone's going to hate me and then eventually I'm going to get ostracized and die. Like we catastrophize everything because we're evolutionary beings, right? We're we're we're mammals. But if you really think what does failure like what does failure even mean? I I I ask someone to buy and they say no. Is that failure? What if I ask another person? What if I ask a 100 people? Okay. Well, what if I ask 100 people, all 100 people say no? Am I allowed to change what I'm what I'm offering? Yes. Okay. So, you get another 100 people and maybe one of them says yes. Okay. But even in that period of time where you had the hundred people who all said no to you and let's say you quit your job and so you have no income. Okay. What are what are the options available to you? Can you talk can you go and sleep on a friend's couch? Can you go back home with your tail between your legs? Well, it's only till between your legs if you stop trying. If you go home and say, "Mom and dad, I want to save up some capital so that I can I can extend my runway so that I can go after this big goal. Mom and dad might be cool. It might be friends. It might be or maybe 10 friends going together." And and because I split a bedroom, so I had a house with six people in it. Um and I split one of the bedrooms with another guy. I paid 400 bucks a month and I had a mattress on the floor and I was never there. But it was just like I tried to keep my living expenses as low as possible. And I think one of the big ones especially is that um people are unwilling to sacrifice their short-term lifestyle and appearances in order to achieve their long-term goal. And so they're handcuffed to their lifestyle.
不断增加的选项与未知
Interviewer: 还有 [清嗓子] 所以如果你试着去过一种低消费的生活,你会惊讶地发现你实际上只需要那么一点点钱就能活下去。这也呼应了关于长期思考的观点,那就是,如果你去思考你 10 年后的地位与今天的地位对比。
Original English
Interviewer: And [clears throat] so you'd be astonished at how little you can actually live on if you try to live on little. This goes to back to the long-term thinking argument as well, which is like if you think about your status in 10 years versus today.
Alex: 是的。而且我愿意去承受这种低谷。
Original English
Alex: Yes. And I'm I'm willing to take this dip.
Interviewer: 你刚才说的话里面有一点非常有趣,我突然意识到,大多数人可能根本没有意识到像你这样的人的这一面,那就是你说这一路走来始终充满了不确定性。现在,我试着想象一下一个 18 岁的创业者正在听 Alex Mosi 讲话。他们肯定会想,“哦,他已经把一路上的所有事情都搞明白了。”而且他不再和不确定性、恐惧、困惑以及模棱两可共存了。他再也不需要绞尽脑汁去思考如何解决问题,因为他已经掌握了所有的答案。但实际上,就像你描述的那样,在我的脑海里,我想象出了所有这些……这是一系列几乎永无止境的门,每扇门上面都写着一段神秘的信息。你可以想象一下,你穿过一扇门,然后前面又出现了 10 扇门,而且它们都 [笑声] 让你去选一扇穿过去,好,这就是那扇正确的门。然后接着又有 10 扇新出现的门,上面全写着含糊不清的话。然后你必须挑选下一步该穿过哪一扇。你走过去,好吧,你在那扇门前碰壁了。你吃了个败仗。损失了一些钱。你穿过另一扇门。好的,这扇是对的。然后前面又出现了 20 扇门。[笑声] 实际上,随着你取得更多的成功,你的选择也在不断增加。因此,会有更多的门和更多的决定需要去面对,也会有更多的不确定性,而这些是大多数人没有意识到的。但其实,就在你刚才说那些话的时候,我心里在想,“妈的,这不正是现在的我正在经历的事情吗。”就像昨天晚上,我和我的一位同事一直熬到了凌晨,我们只是在努力搞清楚到底该穿过哪扇门。所以这真的很有趣,因为在你旅程的越早期阶段,那些具体的……
Original English
Interviewer: One of the things you said was really interesting and I it dawned on me that most people might not realize this about people like you, which is that you said there's uncertainty all the way up. Now, I imagine imagine an 18-year-old entrepreneur listening to Alex Mosi. They're going to be thinking, "Oh, he's got everything figured out all the way up." And he's no longer living with uncertainty, fear, confusion, ambiguity. He's no longer having to think hard about how to solve a problem because he's got all the answers. But actually, as you described it, in my head, I I imagined all of these this sequence of almost neverending doors that all just have a cryptic message on on them. And you imagine you go through one door and there's 10 more and they all [laughter] have you go through one, okay, this was the right one. And then there's 10 new ones that all have a vague language on them. And you've got to pick which one to go through next. You go through, okay, you bounced off that one. you took an L. Lost some money. You go through another one. Okay, this was the right one. And then there's 20. [laughter] actually your optionality is increasing with the more success you have. So there's more doors and more decisions to make, more uncertainty, which most people don't realize. But actually, as you were saying, I was thinking, "Fuck, this is exactly what I'm going through now." Like I I was up till the early hours of the morning with one of my colleagues yesterday night and we're just figuring out which door to walk through. So this is really interesting because the earlier you are in your journey, the more specific the
创业的第一步与克服他人的评判
Speaker A: 我的建议是,如果你还没有自己的企业,那么每个人的第一步都是一样的,那就是你必须先注册一个实体,然后你需要一个银行账户来进行资金交易,并且你必须有一种收取现金的方式。当然,你可以做纯现金生意,但我得说现在大多数人都在使用信用卡。所以,你需要一个支付处理器、一个银行账户和一个实体。
Original English
Speaker A: advice is because if you do not have a business, the first step is the same for everyone which is you must start an entity and then you have to have a bank account so that you can exchange money and you have to have a a way or manner of collecting that cash. Now of course you could have cash business but I would say most people use credit cards now. So you have a processor, a bank account and an entity.
Speaker A: 无论你开始什么样的业务,这都是第一步。随着业务的增长,你会拥有更多的资源。业务的性质也会有所不同。因此,你面前的大门数量实际上会成倍增加。
Original English
Speaker A: It doesn't matter what business you start that is the first step. Now, as the business grows, you have more resources. The the nature of the business is different. And so, the number of doors that are ahead of you are actually multiplied by a huge factor.
Speaker A: 所以,在当下,知道该做什么其实比你刚开始时容易得多。因此,这与你不知所措无关。当然,你懂的,我们刚刚才说过。
Original English
Speaker A: And so, right now, it's actually never easier to know what to do than when you start. And so, it has nothing to do with you not knowing. Of course, you know, I just we just said it.
Speaker A: 最重要的事情是弄清楚为什么你不去行动。更具体地说,你听信的究竟是谁的声音(那并不是你自己的声音),你害怕让谁失望,或者你害怕谁的评判。如果你能识别出那个声音,并给它冠以一个真实的名字,这就不是那种“哎呀,人们会怎么想?”的泛泛而谈了。那不是“人们”,大概就只是那么两个人。一旦你说出名字,你就会觉得,“哦,原来只是詹姆斯和贝蒂而已。”
Original English
Speaker A: It's everything to figure out why you're not doing it. and more specifically whose voice you're listening to that is not yours that you are afraid of disappointing or afraid of their judgment. And if you can identify that voice cuz and you actually put a name on it, it's not like, oh, what are people going to think? It's not people. It's probably like two people. And if you name, you're like, oh, it's just James and Betty.
Speaker B: 是的。
Original English
Speaker B: Yeah.
Speaker A: 所以,这是非常真实的。第一点,当我准备卖掉 Gym Launch 的时候,那对我来说真的是一个非常艰难的决定。超级难。嗯,在我退出的时候,我差点没退出的原因之一,是因为我圈子里有一个我认识的人,甚至都算不上是超级亲密的朋友。当我真正弄清楚我到底在意谁的声音时,我才意识到,我当时竟然在担心那个人觉得 4600 万美元还不够多,担心他觉得这笔钱不是名正言顺的。[笑声] 我可是非常认真的。
Original English
Speaker A: So, this is really real. So, one, when I was about to sell Gym Lodge, I really I it was actually a very hard decision for me. Super hard. Um, and when I exited, one of the reasons I almost didn't exit was because there was somebody that I knew in my circle, not even like a super close friend, that I realized when I got really clear on whose voice I cared about, I thought that they didn't think that $46 million was enough money, that they wouldn't think it was legit. [laughter] I'm dead serious.
Speaker B: 听起来真有趣。[笑声]
Original English
Speaker B: Funny to hear. [laughter]
Speaker A: 我怕他会认为,他会觉得我不够厉害。直到后来我才醒悟,“难道我要因为让这个人控制我,就不去做这件事了吗?” 因为事实就是这样。他们控制了你。
Original English
Speaker A: He's not going to think he's not going to think I'm legit. It was only when I was like, am I going to not do this and let him control me? Cuz that's what it is. They control you.
Speaker B: 而且我认为,当你用这种方式说出来时,感觉就沉重多了,就好像“我正在让我妈妈、我叔叔、我哥哥,或者是同事约翰控制我”。
Original English
Speaker B: And I think when you say it in those terms, it feels like much heavier, like I'm letting my mom or my uncle or my brother or the the coworker John control me
Speaker A: 就因为我如此在乎那个人的认可。我必须更在乎我自己的认可。
Original English
Speaker A: because I that's how much I care about this guy's approval. I care I have to care about my approval more.
商学院的幻觉与行动的决心
Speaker A: 我想更详细地谈谈这个,因为我认为这很重要。你面前看到的这个人,并不是当初那个敢于跨出那一步去创业的人。关于那个决定,我苦苦挣扎了6个月。我几乎有一个事先准备好的标准答案,当人们问我,“哦,那你的职业规划是什么?” 我就会说:“哦,你知道的,我是个顾问,想去商学院读个书,然后某天开创我自己的事业。” 我对这话简直倒背如流,尤其是那句“某天开创我自己的事业”。当我试着用第一性原理再深入思考一下时,我心想,“好吧,商学院能在哪方面帮助我创业呢?”
Original English
Speaker A: I want to say say this in more detail because I think it's it's important. The person that you see in front of you is not the person who who took the leap to start the business. I belabored that decision for 6 months. I had almost like a pre-anned answer and people were like, "Oh, so what do you do with your career?" Oh, you know, I'm consultant like to do a business school and then someday start my own business. It was like I I could say it in my sleep, but the someday start my own business. When I tried to think a little bit more first principles, I was like, "Okay, well, in what way is this business school going to help me start a business?"
Speaker A: 当我查阅商学院毕业生的起薪时,大概是去了一所好的商学院之后每年 12 万美元。我暗自盘算了一下,读商学院每年要花 6 万美元,而且在此期间我赚不到钱。所以我肯定会损失 12 万,而在当时我每年的收入是 5 到 6 万美元。所以我就觉得,在这两年里我的机会成本就是 24 万美元。我是否相信自己能用攒下的钱,在两年内达到每月赚 1 万美元呢?我想,我觉得我能做到。所以这就是我最终没去商学院的部分原因。而更直接的原因,是商学院考试中的一道题目:“布斯商学院的 MBA 将如何帮助你实现短期和长期目标?” 我就坐在那里,花了三天时间试图回答这个问题,结果我意识到,“我不知道它是否会对我的长远发展有帮助。”
Original English
Speaker A: And when I looked at the starting salaries of business school, it was like $120,000 a year after you went to a good business school. And I thought to myself, well, it cost me $60,000 a year and I can't make money during that period. So I'm going to lose$120 for sure and at the time I was making $50 $60,000 a year. And so I was like, so it's $240,000 is my call it my opportunity cost in two years. Do I think that I can take the money that I had saved up and in two years get to $10,000 a month? I was like, I think I can do it. And so that was part of the reason that I ended up not going to business school and it was because of a question on the business school test was how will a Booth MBA help a short and long-term goals? And I just sat there for three days trying to answer it and I realized I was like I don't know if it will help my long term.
Speaker B: 有意思。
Original English
Speaker B: Interesting.
Speaker A: 所以,我觉得他们有这些问题是件好事,因为这确实逼着我去面对。现在回过头来说那六个月,我不开玩笑,我当时可能每两天就读一本书。因为我当时的工作有旺季和淡季。在淡季,我基本上就是看书,而且几乎全是自助类书籍。在读了不知道多少本之后,我回首自己的人生,发现它依然如故,毫无改变。我心想:“哦,如果我不采取任何行动,我的生活是不会改变的。” 以前我有一种错觉,觉得只要我一直读这些书,不知怎么的,我的生活就会自动改变。这是我当时获得的觉醒之一。我有一个朋友,他也和我一样做着白领工作。每天晚上我们大概会在电话里聊两三个小时,谈论我们要如何创业。我买了一块宜家的牛皮地毯,因为我在我那间小公寓里不停地踱步,走来走去,谈论我的创业想法,那块地毯上我经常来回走动的地方,甚至都被磨破了。每次我想开始的时候,我就会告诉我爸爸,“我想去创业。”而他总会说:“我们能不能别这么不切实际。” 他会说:“你有一份好工作。你正在按照计划按部就班地走。你三年读完了范德堡大学。你成绩很好。接下来你要在这里工作两年。然后你就能进入一所顶级的常春藤商学院。你已经做得很好了。别折腾了,这就是生活的一部分。生活本该如此。对吧?”
Original English
Speaker A: So I mean it's good that they have those questions because they actually forced me to answer it. Now back to the the six months I read I I was probably reading no joke a book every two days cuz I the job that I had had high seasons and low seasons. And during low seasons I basically just read books and they were almost all self-help books. And I got to this point after reading however many of them that I looked back at my life and realized it was exactly the same. And I thought, "Oh, if I don't do anything, my life's not going to change." And so I had this idea that if I just keep reading these books, somehow my life was just going to change. And that was like one of the realizations that I had. I had a friend who was also in a white collar, you know, job like I was. And every night we'd probably get on the phone for 2 to three hours and talk about how we were going to start a business. And I had this I had this this IKEA carpet that I bought that was a a cowhide carpet. And the spot where I'd walk back and forth was like worn out on the cowh high because of how much I would just pace in my small uh flat just going back and forth just talking about the ideas that I had to start a business. Every time I wanted to start it, I would tell my dad I want to start the business and he he would be like, "Let's let's not be unreasonable here." He's like, "You've got a good job." He's like, "You're following the plan. You did Vanderbilt in three years. You had good grades. You got you were going to do two years here. Then you go to one of the top IV, you know, NBA schools. Like it's you're good. Don't like this is part of it. This is part of it. Right?"
Speaker A: 我当时极其懦弱,以至于我必须得开车穿越半个国家,才敢给我爸爸打电话,告诉他我已经辞职,并且打算创业了。因为我知道,如果当着他的面说,他一定会劝退我,毕竟他之前已经多次成功打消了我的念头。
Original English
Speaker A: I acted with such cowardice that I had to I had to drive halfway across the country before I could call my dad to tell him that I that I had quit my job and that I was going to start a business because I knew that if I had done it while he was there, he would talk me out of it because he had already talked me out of it a bunch of times.
父亲的背景故事
Speaker B: 他为什么要那样做?在过去的几天里,我稍微了解了一下他的背景。我这里有一些照片。我是说,
Original English
Speaker B: Why was he doing that? I I learned a little bit about his background over the last couple of days. I've got some photos. I mean,
Speaker A: 啊,没错。天啊。
Original English
Speaker A: ah that's right. Dear G.
Speaker B: 我想他的故事背景能够,
Original English
Speaker B: And I think there's context in his own story which
Speaker A: 让整个画面更加完整。
Original English
Speaker A: completes the picture.
Speaker A: 所以,无论人们看到了我怎样的成功,但在很多方面,我越想越觉得我父亲的成就更为伟大。我父亲在伊朗革命期间逃离了那里,然后他前往法国想成为一名医生,但他根本不懂法语。于是他不得不努力考入医学院,用一门他听不懂的语言去学有机化学。结果他连续两年挂科。他兄弟就说:“去比利时吧,重新开始,去个新地方。” 最终他顺顺利利地读完了医学院。然后他在医学院遇见了我母亲,之后他们回到了美国。不过,他的医学学位在美国并不被认可。为了获得住院医生的资格或者类似的职位,他必须先申请一个美国的进修名额。但是没有人愿意接收一个刚从医学院毕业、带着浓重口音的中东小伙,而且当时美国本土有那么多医学人才。于是,他整整做了两年的X光片分析员。他终于拿到了一份住院医生的工作,之后他决定回到巴尔的摩,也就是我的家乡,他没有选择加入我母亲和她父亲合开的诊所,而是决定自立门户。这需要相当大的胆识,对吧?他作为一个外国人,什么都没有。于是他去打听自己建造一个外科手术中心需要多少建设成本。当时的报价是大概 25 万美元,这是一大笔钱。他根本拿不出这么多。于是他研究了成为一家外科中心的所有法律要求。然后他去了家得宝(Home Depot),自己亲手搭建了一个符合所有规格的外科手术中心,并顺利通过了检查,这样他的诊所就拥有了自己的手术中心。就在他的诊所刚开始走上正轨时,我父母离婚了。因为他那里像是一个独立的区域,我母亲把门锁给换了。他的病人到了诊所,却不知道该去哪里。那是一场很难看的离婚。所以后来他又开始重新创业,这就是他当时对我说话的背景。快进到现在,他说:“我已经行医……”
Original English
Speaker A: So whatever people see of my success I think in a lot of ways what my dad accomplished the more I think about it is bigger. My dad fled during the Iranian uh revolution right and then he went to go to uh France to become a doctor but he didn't speak French. And so he had to go try to go into medical school and take Orgo in a language that he didn't understand. And so he failed two years in a row. His brother was like, "Go to Belgium, start fresh, go to a new place." And so he ended up uh getting all the way through medical school. And then he met my mother in medical school and then they came back to the US. Now his medical degree didn't transfer to the US. And so he had to get a US fellowship in order a residency or whatever. But no one would take a Middle Eastern guy who had a super thick accent who was fresh out of medical school and there was all these US-based people here. And so for two years he ran X-ray slides. He finally gets a residency and then he decides when he comes back to Baltimore, which is where my where where I'm from, that he's going to instead of join the practice that my mother had with her father. He was going to go out on his own, which is pretty ballsy, right? He didn't have foreigner, didn't have anything. And so he asked to find out how much a construction cost for building your own surgery center. And it was like $250,000 then, so it was a lot of money. He didn't have that. And so he looked at all the legal requirements for what what it entails to be a serger center. And then he went to Home Depot and built a surgery center that met all the specs and got it inspected so that he could have his own surgery center in his practice. Then right as his practice was starting to work, my parents got divorced. They changed the the locks on the door cuz he had like a separate thing. His patients show up and they didn't know where to go. It was an ugly divorce. And so then he's he's starting his own and this is when he was talking to me then. So fast forward now. He's like, "I've been in practice"
Speaker A: “二十、三十年之类的,随它去吧。”他说,“那些年,我甚至都没去想过他。”我想我当时的感觉是,“我觉得自己走得不够快。我觉得我需要去做这些事情。”然后他说,“老兄,一年、两年,那都不算什么。”他说,“在你的意识里,你甚至都不会去想,都不会记得它。”
老实说,我当时非常极其渴望证明我能靠自己做到这一切。
Original English
Speaker A: "for, you know, 20, 30 years, whatever." He's like, "Those years, I didn't even think about him." I think I was like, "I feel like I'm not moving fast enough. I feel like I need to need to do these things." And he's like, "Dude, a year, two years now." He's like, "It's nothing." He's like, "When your mind, you're not even going to think you're not even remember it."
The the honest truth of the matter is that I really desperately wanted to prove that I could do it on my own.
Speaker B: 你想向谁证明呢?
Original English
Speaker B: Who did you want to prove that to?
Speaker A: 我不知道。所有人。向我自己、向他、向全世界证明。我记得我曾对中彩票这个想法感到恐惧。听起来很奇怪。[笑声] 上大学的时候,我买了一张超级碗彩票,因为当时奖金大概有十亿美元之类的。我当时想,“就当好玩买一张吧,管它呢。”我记得就在号码即将公布的前一刻,我突然感到一阵纯粹的恐惧——万一我中奖了怎么办?因为我想,这样我就永远无法证明我自己有实力,证明我自己能做到。当然,如果现在有人想给我十亿美元,人们肯定会说我很乐意收下。但公平地说,这是因为我已经拥有了相应的地位和业绩记录,我证明了这一切是我自己建立的。
这也是为什么当我开始创业时,我没有去贷款,而是用了自己存下来的钱,因为我希望那是属于我自己的,我心里清楚这一点。我想,是的,我父亲的出发点绝对是好的。他给我的建议,我认为对绝大多数人来说可能都是相当不错的建议。嗯。只是,这并不是为了实现我的目标所需要的建议。
Original English
Speaker A: I don't know. Everyone. Me, him, the world. I remember being terrified about the idea of winning the lottery. Sounds really weird. [laughter] When I was in college, I bought a Super Bowl ticket because it was like a billion dollars or something. I was like, "Let's do it for fun, whatever." And I and I remember having this this moment right before the the number was going to get called of sheer terror of what if I win because I was like, I will never be able to prove that I I have the medal, that I can do it. And so, and of course people would say that now if someone wants to give me a billion dollars, I'm happy to use it. Because to be fair though, because I already have this I already have the status and the track record that I that I built this.
And this also the reason that like when I started my my business like I didn't take a loan like I used my own money that I had saved because I I wanted to be mine and I knew I would know. And I think yeah, my dad had absolutely perfect intentions. He gave me what I believe to be for vast majority of people probably pretty good advice. Mhm.
It just wasn't the advice that I needed for the goals that I had.
是否每个人都适合创业?
Speaker B: 这很有趣,因为像你我这样的人都在做商业内容,我们经常谈论创业。
我常常会想,我们是不是在误导一些人?因为从某种意义上说,有些人确实应该听从那种安稳的建议。有些人就是不应该去创业。那么,一个人如何才能知道广义上的创业是否适合自己,或者像是在一家公司里拥有一份很棒的工作是否才更适合他们呢?这很有趣。有一次我在做这档节目,我问镜头外的制片人,我说:“嗯,你觉得我快乐吗?” 所以,这是一个在幕后看了我六七年的人,从我们还在我厨房餐桌上办公时就每天看到我的人。他陪我走遍了世界每一个角落,见证了最好的和最坏的时光。我问他:“你觉得我快乐吗?”他回答:“是的。”他回答得很快。然后我接着问:“那你想过我这样的生活吗?”他非常强烈地说了不。强烈到甚至有点防备的地步。[笑声] 他当时的态度就像是,“你正在过……”然后我问,你想要我的生活吗?他说:“不。”而且他是笑着说的。他不想过我的生活,但同时,在幕后看了我七年之后,他认为也相信我是快乐的。所以这里面,我认为有一种对个人旅程的主观感受——这是不是属于你自己的旅程?听到这些内容的人,该如何知道自己到底适不适合当创业者呢?
Original English
Speaker B: There's an interesting thing because people like me and you make business content and we talk about entrepreneurship a lot.
Um I I often wonder if we're leading some people astray in the context of some people actually should take that advice. Some people shouldn't become entrepreneurs. Um and how does one know if entrepreneurship in its broad definition is for them or not or like working in a company having you know having a great job is for them? It's funny. We were I was doing this show once and I said to the producer who was just off camera. I said, "Um, do you think I'm happy?" So, this is this is someone who gets to see who's has seen me for six or seven years behind the scenes every day since we're on my kitchen table. Has been there with me every corner of the world, the the best and the worst of times. I went, "Do you think I'm happy?" He went, "Yes." He said it quickly. And then he and then I said, "Would you want my life?" And he he couldn't have said no more violently. So much so that it was almost defensive. [laughter] He was like, "You're having" And then I do you want would you like my life? He goes, "No." And he was like, and and he was like laughing. He would not want my life, but at the same time thinks and believes having seen me behind the scenes for 7 years that I'm happy. And in there, I think you have something which is the the sort of subjectivity of of of journey like is this your journey? How does one know listening to this now if they should be an entrepreneur or not?
Speaker A: 所以,我会给出几个分析框架,因为做决策可能占据了我们俩大部分的时间。那么,第一点就是:目标是什么?我到底希望发生什么?
Original English
Speaker A: So, I'll give a couple frames because decision-m is what probably both do with a lot of our time. So, one is what's the goal? what do I want to have happen?
Speaker B: 每个人在这个问题上说的都一样。他们会说,你知道的,我想要自己做决定的自由。我想要财务自由。
Original English
Speaker B: Everyone says the same things here. They say, you know, I want freedom to make my decisions. I want, you know, financial freedom.
Speaker A: 然后我们就必须具体化。所以,就像恐惧只存在于具体事物中一样,目标也必须具体存在,这样它们才是真实的,你才能做出准确的决定。
Original English
Speaker A: Then we have to be specific. And so, just like fear only exists in the specific, goals have to exist in the specific in order for them to be real and for you to make accurate decisions.
Speaker B: 嗯。
Original English
Speaker B: Mhm.
Speaker A: 这就是为什么我对语言措辞、可观察的事物等等如此着迷。所以,第一点是,我到底实际希望发生什么?然后第二点是,这会给我的实际日常生活带来什么改变?就第一点而言,有趣的是,我刚跟你提到了自由……
Original English
Speaker A: And this is why I'm so obsessive about language and like observables and things like that. So, what is one is what do I what do I actually want to have happen? And then number two, what does that change about my actual daily life? on this first point. Funnily enough, I said to you freedom
Speaker B: 然后我立刻意识到,我是世界上最不自由的人。[笑声]
Original English
Speaker B: and then I immediately realized that the least free person in the [laughter]
选择的自由与代价
Speaker A: 老兄,这越来越……好吧,这太棒了。所以关于这点,我认为它是选择的自由。
但我认为人们往往停留在“自由”这一层。现在似乎有一种对独立性、保留选择权、让人生选择最大化的狂热迷恋。但是,生活中所有最美好的部分,都发生在你行使选择权并推开一扇门之后。但在这样做的同时,你也把其他本可以走进去的门留在了身后。所以,过上你想要的生活的秘诀在于做出承诺。但你无法得到你想要的所有人生。所以在某个时刻,你必须站在悬崖边上做出一场交易。你必须说,比起别的,我更想要这个。这意味着我知道自己得不到那个了,而我选择说我更想要这个。我认为这就是人们在十字路口停滞不前的原因。这才是耗费了绝大部分时间的东西。不仅是在进入商业领域之前,当你已经在做生意时,人们也会坐在十字路口思考:我想建立什么样的公司?什么样的产品?我想要做什么样的生意?我们就坐在那里,当我看到人们卡住时,几乎总是因为未做出的决定,因为未做出的决定可以永远拖延下去。
Original English
Speaker A: dude this gets okay this is great. So I think about this it's the freedom to choose
but I think people stop at freedom. There's this almost fetishization of independence and keeping your options open and m and options maxing right for your life. But all of the best parts of life come on the other side of exercising an option and and walking through a door. But in so doing, leaving the other doors that you could have walked through behind. And so the secret to getting a life you want is making a commitment. But you will not get all lives you want. And so at some point you have to sit at the precipice and you have to make a trade. And you have to say, I want this more than something else. That means I know I'm not going to get this and I choose to say that I want this more. And I think this is where people just sit at the crossroads. And that is what takes the majority of time. Not just getting into business, but also when you're in business, people will sit at the crossroads of like, what type of company do I want to build? What type of product? And what type what what type of business do I want? And we sit there and I when I see people get stuck, it's almost always unmade decisions because unmade decisions can last forever.
Speaker B: 相比之下,如果你处在一个反馈、反馈、再反馈的试错循环中,你总会弄明白的,你会向前迈进的。但如果你处于一个未做决定的状态,你可能就会永远停滞不前。那就是,那就是选择的自由。我们必须做出选择。你是否看到现在的新一代,他们伴随着各种创业工具长大,我们身处这个个人品牌时代,每个人都可以做内容、建立品牌,然后靠做座谈演讲为生,或者在领英上卖广告?
这到底是怎么回事呢?现在这批30岁以下的年轻一代,想要保留自己的选择权,想要自由。如果你拿这去跟我父亲相比,你知道,一份工作,那个职业他干了二三十年,那是他生活中的热爱,干了四十年,我们现在生活的世界已经完全不同了。
Original English
Speaker B: Whereas if you're in if you're in a trial loop of feedback, feedback, feedback, like you'll figure it out, like you'll move. But if you're in an unmade decision, it could sit there forever. And that's that's like the freedom to choose. We have to choose. Are you seeing this sort of new generation that have grown up with all the tools to start their own business that we're in this personal brand era where everybody can make content and build a brand and then do like panel talks for a living or sell like ads on LinkedIn? Um,
what what is going on here? this sort of younger generation under 30 now keeping their options open wanting freedom. If you compare that to say maybe my dad who you know one job did that career for 20 30 years of his love 40 years of his life it's a very different world we're living in.
Speaker A: 现在创业的人比以往任何时候都多。我知道自从疫情以来,至少在美国,我最近看的数据显示,每个季度的新企业数量都在增加。它增长得非常迅猛,至少在美国是这样,所以越来越多的人开始创业。因此,我认为入门成本的降低让更多的人跨过了这道门槛。我认为获取信息的便利性也让更多的人跨过了门槛。但是,为什么不是所有人都跨过去呢?我认为有几个原因。一个是正如你刚才所说,我不认为这适合所有人。所以我觉得这里面的核心是动机问题。他们有太多的胡萝卜,也就是说,有太多的好处把他们留在目前的位置上,却没有足够的大棒,也就是没有足够的坏处把他们赶出目前的舒适区。我想……我觉得这是托尼(Tony Robbins)的一句名言,那就是:保持现状的痛苦必须大于改变的痛苦。
Original English
Speaker A: There are more people starting businesses than ever before. I know since co there's there's at least in the US the stats that I looked at recently it's like there's been more new businesses per quarter. It's been growing really aggressively at least in the US and so more people are starting businesses. And so I think that lowering the cost of entry has gotten more people across the line. I think having more access to information has gotten more people across the line. But why aren't why isn't everyone going across the line? I think there's a couple things. One is to your point earlier, I don't think it is for everyone. And so I think the issue there is one of motivation. They have too many carrots, so good things keeping them in their current position and not enough sticks or bad things getting them out of their current position. And I think um I think it's a it's a Tony quote, Tony Robbins quote, which is uh the pain of staying the same has to be greater than the pain of change.
Speaker B: 而且我 [清嗓子] 认为,当那种情况发生时,也可能是因为改变带来的快乐必须大于保持现状的快乐。它们是相等且相对的。但我认为大多数人都处于那一部分,即感受到痛苦,所以只有当保持现状的痛苦变得更大时,你才会做出改变。过去十年来,我一直在建立和投资公司。关于营销预算的讨论往往遵循完全相同的模式。预算被批准了,但却没有看到效果。大多数时候,创意方案和报价都是没问题的。问题出在受众身上。广告覆盖的那些人永远都不会购买或推荐,他们也根本没有审批任何东西的权力。这就是为什么有那么多预算被浪费了。领英广告(LinkedIn Ads)——我们播客的赞助商——让你可以具体根据职位头衔、资历、公司规模、行业、他们具备的技能等等,精准触达这些人。你不再是祈祷你的广告能推送到对的人面前,相反,你可以精确定义谁能看到它。领英广告带来了……
Original English
Speaker B: And I [clears throat] think that when that happens and it could be the pleasure of change could be has to be greater than the pleasure of staying the same. E equal opposite, but I think most people are in that slice, there's pain and so you will change the moment it is more painful to stay the same. I've spent the last decade building and investing in companies and so often the conversation around marketing budgets follows the exact same pattern. The budget gets approved but then the results don't come back and most of the time the creative pitch and the offer is fine. The problem lies with the audience. Ads reach people who will never buy or refer nor do they have the power to sign off anything at all. And this is why so much budget gets wasted. LinkedIn Ads, who are sponsor of this podcast, lets you reach them specifically by job title, seniority, company size, industry, the skills that they have, and much more. You're no longer hoping your ad reaches the right person. Instead, you're defining exactly who sees it. And LinkedIn ads drives
播客赞助与受众痛点
Speaker A: (……)在所有主要广告网络中,B2B广告支出回报率是最高的。你可以去 linkedin.com/diary 尝试一下。如果你在第一次广告活动中花费250美元,只需访问 linkedin.com/diary,你就能获得250美元的下一次活动抵用金。这事自己知道就好,因为受相关条款和条件的限制。
Original English
Speaker A: the highest B2B return on ad spend across all major ad networks. Give them a try at linkedin.com/diary. And if you spend $250 on your first campaign, you'll get a $250 credit for your next one just by going to linkedin.com/diary. Keep this to yourself. Terms and conditions apply.
Speaker A: 过去几年里,我一直在开发一个我认为每一个听到这里的播客主,甚至可能是每一个创作者都可能会用得上的东西。做播客很困难,原因有很多。其中之一是,目前的那些托管平台并不能给你提供太多有效的信息。另外,因为这些平台极其碎片化,你几乎不得不逐个去应付每一个不同的平台——先把它上传到 YouTube,然后再拿着同一个庞大老旧的视频文件把它上传到 Spotify 的平台。这会消耗巨大无比的时间。正是这种操作上的摩擦阻力导致了我们大多数人都不愿意去这么做。这就是我们最初下定决心要解决的问题。所以我们打造了一个叫做 Flightcast 的平台,你可以去 flightcast.com 找到它。在今天,Flightcast 也是我们这个节目的赞助商之一。如今,世界上一些最大牌的播客主都在使用我们的平台来运营他们的节目,因为这能赋予你巨大的优势。它能为你节省时间。它能为你提供大多数人通常根本无法获取到的数据分析。它允许你利用人工智能来更深入、更全面地了解你自己的节目,而且它还拥有其他托管平台所不具备的各类增长工具。所以,那些正在使用 Flightcast 的播客主,实际上拥有着这种不公平的竞争优势。去看看吧,访问 flightcast.com/doac。
Original English
Speaker A: For the last couple years, I've been working on something that I realized every podcaster listening to this, but actually probably every creator listening to this might just need. Podcasting is difficult for many reasons. And one of them is that these hosting platforms don't give you much information. And also because they're so fragmented, you kind of have to go through every single platform, uploading it to YouTube, and then taking the same big old video file and uploading it to Spotify's platform. It takes huge amounts of time. And that friction means most of us don't do it. That is the problem we set out to solve. And so we built something called Flightcast, which you can find at flightcast.com. And today, Flightcast is also one of our show sponsors. And some of the world's biggest podcasters are now using our platform to run their shows because it gives you an edge. It saves you time. It gives you analytics most people won't typically get. It allows you to use AI to be more informed on your show and it has growth tools that other hosting platforms don't have. So podcasters that are using Flightcast have this unfair advantage. So go to flightcast.com/doac.
问题的难度与人生回报
Speaker A: 那么,你认为生活给予你的回报,是否在某种程度上与你所解决的问题的艰难程度成正比呢?
Original English
Speaker A: Now do you think life rewards you somewhat proportional to the hardness of the problem that you solve?
Speaker B: 我觉得,一个问题很困难,并不一定就能保证它是一个有价值的问题。嗯。[清嗓子]
Original English
Speaker B: So I think um a hard problem doesn't necessarily guarantee that it is a valuable problem. Mhm. [clears throat]
Speaker B: 就像如果你非常拼命地去跑一场马拉松,那确实很难,但这并不一定会让你赚到更多的钱。所以说,世界上存在着许许多多艰难的事情,而它们并不会直接转化为金钱收益或者商业化变现。
Original English
Speaker B: Like if you run a marathon very hard, it doesn't necessarily make you more money. So like there's lots of hard things that are out there that will not turn into monetization.
Speaker B: 其次,我认为这完全取决于你目标的大小。
Original English
Speaker B: The second thing is I think it depends on the size of your goals.
Speaker B: 因此,如果你只是想成为一个百万富翁,你根本不需要去解决什么艰难的世界级难题。你只需要比其他那些在服务客户方面表现得极其糟糕的企业做得稍微好一点点就够了——而且我向你保证,这样的企业比比皆是。你可以只是开一家清洗游泳池的公司,只要你的清洗工作比另外那家公司做得更干净,并且能够准时出现,你需要做的就只是挨家挨户敲门,问问他们是否愿意换一家服务商,因为他们目前雇佣的公司很可能根本不怎么搭理他们。
Original English
Speaker B: And so if you want to be a millionaire, you do not need to solve a hard problem. You just need to do a little bit better than other businesses that are wildly underserving their customers, which I promise you there are plenty. You can just have a pool cleaning business that just cleans better than the other guy and like shows up on time and all you got to do is knock on doors and ask if they want to switch because their current company probably doesn't pay attention to them.
AI时代内容创作的护城河
Speaker A: 现阶段,你知道的,很多创始人、很多企业家目前都在思考的一件事,就是创作内容。
Original English
Speaker A: One of the things that, you know, a lot of founders, entrepreneurs are thinking about at the moment is producing content.
Speaker A: 我们正生活在一个非常有趣的时代,在这个时代里,一个远在孟买的小孩,或者一个在曼哈顿的小孩,都能使用大型语言模型(LLM)或者人工智能(AI)来创作内容。他们能够直接制作出视频。从理论上讲,只要你想象一下目前的这种进步速度,他们很快就能制作视频、生成照片、大批量地炮制出你说过的金句名言。他们甚至可以使用你的原话,稍微加以修改,然后让一个AI代理机器人帮他们自动发布出去。那么,在这个内容泛滥的时代,内容的护城河究竟在哪里?如果你从供需动态平衡的角度去思考,需求量其实是固定的。英国《金融时报》曾发布过一份报告指出,自2022年以来,人们花在社交媒体上的时间其实已经开始出现了轻微的下滑。对于年轻一代,或者说对于较老的一代人而言,这个时间可能还在上升或者保持平稳,但是对于 Z 世代来说,这个时长已经开始慢慢下降了。所以,面对停滞不前的需求,以及人工智能生成的如同海啸般涌来的劣质内容……
Original English
Speaker A: We're living in in in an interesting time where a kid in Mumbai or a kid in Manhattan can both produce content using LLM, uh, AI. They can produce videos. Theoretically, if you imagine any rate of improvement, they're going to be able to make videos, photos, churn out your quotes. They could use your quotes, change them a little bit, and have an agent post them for them. Where is the moat in content? Where you think about, if you think about supply demand dynamics, there's fixed demand. The Financial Times did a report saying that time spent on social media is starting to dip a little bit since 2022. For younger generations, for older generations, it's still sort of like going up or flat, but for Gen Z's, it's like starting to come down a little bit. So stagnant demand, tsunami slop coming in of AI content.
Speaker B: 没错。
Original English
Speaker B: Yeah.
Speaker A: 这是一次巨大的供应冲击。每一个单位的内容本身都会变得越来越不值钱。因此,嗯,而且目前的算法也变得越来越冷酷无情,或者我应该说变得更……嗯,一个拥有1千万粉丝的人,现在发帖可能只能得到两千个赞。想当年,也就是大概15年前,当我刚开始在社交媒体上活跃的时候,如果你有一百万的粉丝,你就会得到一百万的赞,或者应该说是一百万的浏览量。在这样一个所有人都在拼命制造内容的世界里,内容的真正玩法到底是什么?
Original English
Speaker A: Huge supply shock. Every unit of content itself is going to become less valuable. Therefore, um and the algorithms are getting more violent or I should say are becoming more um someone with 10 million followers can get 2,000 likes. Back in my day, 15 years ago, when I started on social media, if you had a million followers, you got a million a million likes or a million views, should I say. What's the game of content in such a world? Everyone's everyone's making content now.
Speaker B: 回到你刚才提出的那个问题:护城河究竟是什么?嗯,现实世界就是护城河。
Original English
Speaker B: To your point, what's the mode? Um, reality is the moat.
Speaker A: 现实世界就是护城河。
Original English
Speaker A: Reality is the moat.
Speaker B: 我得说,我认为这个星球上头号最顶级的商业影响力人物是埃隆·马斯克,而他碰巧也拥有这个星球上最庞大的企业,成为了世界首富。嗯,杰夫·贝索斯同样是一位拥有巨大影响力的商业领袖,因为他拥有亚马逊。沃伦·巴菲特可能称得上是头号投资界的影响力人物。就像人们会为了听他讲话而不远万里飞越半个地球,当他开口时,所有人都在倾听。所以,即便是在爱荷华州得梅因市的一位教师,哪怕他能一字不差地逐字背诵并引用沃伦·巴菲特的话,甚至我们再进一步,哪怕他能提出比沃伦·巴菲特还要好的投资建议,他依然不可能获得相同的关注度和浏览量,因为他们唯独忘记了一件事——他们没有建立起伯克希尔·哈撒韦这样的商业帝国,也没有积累下一百年的骄人业绩记录。所以我想要表达的重点是,当“现实世界就是护城河”的时候,这意味着你的个人品牌就是护城河。这意味着你的声誉和口碑就是护城河,而这一切只能在真实的现实世界中发生和积累。不过话虽如此,我确实认为这会根据不同类型的内容产生截然不同的影响。如果你是身处在制作纯虚构内容、比如小说或者影视编剧的世界里,那么没错,我认为人工智能会对你造成更加沉重的打击。但即使在那样的领域里,依然需要有人来作为标准的守护者。必须有人来判断那些由 AI 批量生成的劣质内容是不是实在太粗制滥造了 [笑声],而且你依然需要付出极其艰辛的努力,才能指挥人工智能精确无误地制作出你内心真正想要的东西,并让其水准达到你所期望的顶尖高度。
Original English
Speaker B: I'd say the number one biggest business influencer I think on the planet is Elon Musk and he happens to own the biggest business on the planet be the richest man. Uh, Jeff Bezos, huge business influencer because he has Amazon. Warren Buffett probably the number one investing influencer. Like people fly around the world and when he when he talks, everyone listens. And so even if a teacher in De Moines Iowa word for word quotes Warren Buffett and let's do one better let's say makes even better advice than Warren Buffett does is still not going to get the same views because they just forgot to build Berkshire Hathaway and have a hundred years of track record. And so what I'm saying there is that when reality is the mode it means that your brand is the mode. It means your reputation is the mode which can only happen in reality. Now, that said, I do think it's going to affect different types of content differently. If you're in the world of making fictional whatever stuff, then yeah, I think it's going to hit I think AI is going to hit you much harder. But even then, there's still going to be the the standard holder. Somebody has to determine that this slop is too sloppy [laughter] and that you still have to work really hard to make the AI make exactly what you want and have it at the caliber that you want it to be at.
内容策略与风险连续体
Speaker A: 考虑到现在算法和人工智能领域所发生的这一切翻天覆地的变化,你在自己的内容策略上有没有做出过任何调整?
Original English
Speaker A: Have you made any changes to your content because of everything that's going on with algorithms and AI?
Speaker B: 有的,我现在只专注于去做那些只有我才能做得到的事情。[清嗓子]
Original English
Speaker B: Yeah, I'm focused on only doing things that only I can do. [clears throat]
Speaker B: 绝大多数人没有能力让成百上千位企业老板每个月都亲自飞过来相聚,而且这些老板全都是拥有百万美元甚至更高身价的企业家,专门跑来针对那些每年营收在300万、500万、1000万,或者是50万美金的真实商业难题寻求指导意见。大多数人并没有这样的资源。因此,我可以用一种现场直播、实时互动的形式来展现我的专业知识,而这种方式是别人根本无法做到的。我认为这种现场直播的形式是一种——我的意思是,也许在未来的人工智能时代,我们会有能够去进行现场直播的 AI 虚拟数字人,但至少在短期到中期的这段时间里,我认为真人现场依然是非常有优势的。我认为 IRL(在现实生活中,In Real Life)的形式,也就是确实有真实的人类在进行面对面的交谈是非常重要的,就像我们刚刚推出并在节目里聊到过的《扩展还是失败》(Scale or Fail)这档真人秀。那里面有活生生的企业家,而且还涉及到真实的赌注和利害关系 [笑声]。我认为这就是某种永远不会被轻易取代的东西。但是如果我们把所有的内容都放在一个连续体上来思考,好吧,让我们把这个连续体称为“风险连续体”(continuum risk)。当我说风险的时候,指的是一个消费者在消费这些内容并将其实际执行落地时所需要承担的风险。因此,如果我们把娱乐和教育这两个概念区分开来——娱乐型内容的存在意义就是为了被消费。纯粹被消费是娱乐的唯一目的。而教育型内容的目的则是为了去改变人们的行为。
Original English
Speaker B: Most people can't get hundreds of business owners to fly out in person every month that are all million-dollar plus business owners to seek advice on real business problems at 3 million, 5 million, 10 million a year, 500k a year. Most people don't have that. And so I can demonstrate expertise in a live and interactive fashion, in a way that other people can't do. I think that live is something that I mean AI maybe in the future we'll have some AI avatars that can go live but at least in the short to medium term I think live is good. I think IRL as in like it's actually real people talking which is we talked about the scaler fail show that we just launched. It's real entrepreneurs and there's stakes [laughter] involved. I think that is something that is not going to be replaced. But if we think about content on this continuum all right let's make this continuum risk. When I say risk it's the risk that a consumer has in consuming the content and executing on it. And so if we differentiate entertainment and education is entertainment the point of the content is to be consumed. It's the only objective of entertainment. The point of education is to change behavior.
Speaker B: 对吧?所以这就构成了我们在此处的分野。现在来看,娱乐内容创作者将会受到比教育内容创作者大得多的冲击。而那些牵涉到真实利益和赌注的娱乐创作者,将能够通过持续专注于真实生活(IRL)、真实的赌注以及真实的故事来维护好他们自身的护城河。现在,在教育这一端的风险世界里,让我们放上一些风险和成本非常低廉的东西。举个例子。比如说,我们把美妆内容放在连续体的这一端。如果我有一个专门做美妆教程的 AI 数字人网红,我不认为其中的风险会高到哪里去。因为如果那个教程教得真的很好,我不觉得会有一个女孩子在看了视频之后,会拒绝去使用他们在教程里传授的化妆技巧。我觉得她去尝试的可能性相当高。如果你沿着风险连续体再稍微往上走一点,风险再高一点,比如说关于个人理财的内容。那么,凭据和信誉到底是什么?在美妆领域,你的信誉就是你呈现出的美感。而在个人理财领域,你的信誉就在于:你自己有可观的个人财产吗?对吧?那么,谁是个人理财领域排名第一的顶尖意见领袖呢?在我看来,我认为是戴夫·拉姆齐(Dave Ramsey)。而且他碰巧也是——虽然我不认为他会这么称呼自己,但我认为他绝对是个亿万富翁。而且他拥有一份极其庞大的事业,我认为他已经公开过,他创造了每年高达三亿美元的营收。当然,我也知道还有一些其他更年轻、新时代的博主。嗯,我觉得薇薇安·图(Vivian Tu)也是个很棒的个人理财博主。我觉得艾丽卡·库尔伯格(Erica Kullberg)也涉猎了这个领域,她是那位做法律内容普及的女孩。嗯,不管怎么说,我要表达的意思是,他们所有人本身都拥有着强大的现实信誉背书。相比之下,如果你只是突然跑出来在网上散布一些如何省钱的建议和诀窍,那是毫无信誉可言的。现实世界,你缺乏现实世界的支撑。你没有任何能够拿来为自己背书的真材实料。
Original English
Speaker B: Right? So that's our that's our split. Now entertainers will get hit harder than educators will. The entertainers that have stakes involved will be able to maintain that mode by still focusing on IRL real stakes real stories. Now in the education world of risk, let's put something that's really low stakes. There we go. So, we've got beauty on this side. If I have an AI influencer who does a makeup tutorial, I don't think the risk is super high that if, you know, if the tutorial is good that a girl's like going to not use the tip that they made in the thing. I think that's pretty likely. If you go maybe a little bit riskier, let's say I have some personal finance stuff. Well, what's the cred? So, the credibility in beauty is beauty. the credibility in personal finance is do you have personal finances? Right? So, who's the number one uh influencer in personal finance? My opinion, I think it's Dave Ramsey. He also happens to be I don't think he he calls himself this, but I think he's a billionaire. And he's got a massive I think he's public $300 million a year of revenue that he's done. And I think there's some other newer newer age people. Uh I think Vivian 2 is is she's a personal finance person. I think um Erica Coberg touches in this. She's the legal legal gal. Um, anyways, all this to say, all of them have more credibility. Like, if you just start giving out tips on how to save money, there's no credibility. Reality, there's no reality. You have nothing to back it up.
Speaker A: 嗯哼。
Original English
Speaker A: Mhm.
Speaker B: 现在,我们在风险连续体上继续往前走。比如说商业领域,如果你在这里做出了一个错误的决策,你可能会失去你的整个公司。在刚才的理财领域,你损失的可能只是一点点钱。而在美妆领域,你损失的顶多就是糟糕的一天。
Original English
Speaker B: Now, we keep moving further. Let's say business where if you make a wrong call, you could lose your business. Here, you lose some money. Here, you lose a bad day
稀缺性与权威性:内容的护城河
Guest: ……化虚假包装。所以,风险增加了。犯错的风险或后果越高,我认为人们就越会加倍看重信息来源的信誉。
Original English
of makeup. So, the risk goes up. the riskier or the higher the consequences of being wrong, the more people are going to, I think, double down on credibility of source.
Host: 有趣的是,当你在描述把这 100 位企业老板请到拉斯维加斯时,我听到了“稀缺”,艰难和稀缺。我一直在想,这两个词几乎就是我个人内容策略的支柱,那就是——有了大语言模型,确实,孟买的一个小孩也能快速批量生成一个视频。但是,我们之所以能在这里建立起某种护城河,是因为用九台摄像机拍摄是很艰难的。把亚历克斯·霍尔莫齐(Alex Hormozi)请到这里是很艰难的。让亚历克斯·霍尔莫齐答应做这件事是很艰难的。[笑声] 让米歇尔·奥巴马(Michelle Obama)或 JD·万斯(JD Vance)答应做这件事是很艰难的。所以,这在制作层面上很艰难,但同样,要实现这一切也很艰难。然后你描述的事情,我听到了很多关于——我听到了艰难和稀缺。有谁能把一百位在各自领域都取得成功的企业家请到拉斯维加斯,并让他们向你提问?所以这对我们来说是非常棒的观看内容。这真的是几乎不可能做到的……
Original English
What's interesting is I also heard as you were describing flying these 100 business owners out to Vegas is I heard scarce, hard and scarce. And I still thought a lot about these two words as sort of the pillars of my own content strategy, which is with an LLM, yeah, a kid in Mumbai could churn out a video. Um, but the reason why we have, you know, somewhat of a moat here still is because it is hard to shoot on nine cameras. It is hard to bring Alex Hermosi here. It is hard to get Alex Hozi to say yes to doing this. [laughter] It is hard to get Michelle Obama or JD Vance to say yes to doing this. So, there's it's hard from a production perspective, but also from like to accomplish this is hard. And then what you described, I heard a lot of the like I heard hard and scarce. who can bring a hundred entrepreneurs to Vegas who are all successful in their own right and and have them ask you questions. So that's great content for us to watch. It's like really impossible to to
Guest: 非常艰难。如果我仅仅经历过一次 4600 万美元的套现退出,我不知道我是否能吸引到我们现在这么多的企业家。但现在我们拥有 250 多所学校,一家价值超过 10 亿美元的公司,这就意味着我拥有了信誉,证明我们在 YouTube 上的内容不是纸上谈兵,我们仍然在真刀真枪地做生意。你明白我的意思吗?我们参与经营着实体连锁店。我只是不谈论这些,因为这对于大多数人来说并不相关。
Original English
very hard. If I had only had a $46 million exit, I don't know if I would attract the number of entrepreneurs that that we do now. But now that we do 250 plus schools, a billion dollar plus company, it's like I have credibility that the the the YouTube the content right is not like I we we I still do business. You know what I mean? We have chains of brick and mortar that that we're involved in. I just don't talk about it because it doesn't it's not relevant for most people.
Host: 那么让我们来看看反面例子,正好向大家展示一下“艰难和稀缺”或这种策略的反面是什么。现在我们都应该避开哪些类型的内容呢?
Original English
Let's look at the opposite then as well just to show people what the opposite of hard and scarce or of this approach is. What types of content should we all kind of stay away from now?
Guest: 我认为是那些同质化的小技巧。当你的内容缺乏——我想说,事实胜于雄辩,现实就是护城河——缺乏事实依据时,这基本上就是反面例子。所以,如果你在摆姿态,如果你在假装,如果你没有证据来证明你擅长这件事——这也是针对教育领域的——那么这里就存在一个巨大的,我称之为巨大的“虚无”:我为什么要听你的?对吧?我为什么要听你的?如果你不能在最初的几秒钟内为潜客(潜在客户)回答这个问题,他们就会去听别人的了。因为信誉之所以如此重要,是因为从权威人士那里获取信息的成本实际上更低。所以,如果我在听一个没有事实依据的人讲课,而且我听的是投资建议,我就必须仔细思考:这是真的吗?这说得通吗?但如果我在听沃伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)讲话,我就不需要这么想了。我会觉得,我确信他是对的。那么,当有人问,我该如何进入这个领域呢?你要做别人做不到的事。如果你正在起步,那就去记录下你的“努力证明”。所以,你可以像我们现在这样,提供“结果证明”,对吧?展示你所做的事情。但是,当你刚开始的时候,你可以提供“努力证明”。吉米(Jimmy / MrBeast)的第一个病毒视频是他数数数到了 100 万。这就是努力证明。当你一无所有时,你还有时间。你还有劳动。如果你想说,“嘿,我想进入销售领域。”那么就把你一整天的销售过程录下来。然后,当你克服了一个真正艰难的障碍时,那是真实的、带有真金白银风险的现实生活,把那个瞬间剪辑下来,对吧?然后展示你自己。你可以说,“我今天打了 22 通电话。让我告诉你最精彩的时刻。我今天工作了 12 个小时。在 3 分钟内,我将向你展示最精华的片段。”大家都想做一笔好交易。
Original English
So I think commoditize tips and tricks um when you have no again like proof is in the pudding reality is the moat. It's basically the opposite of that. So if you are posing if you are pretending if you have no proof um that you are good at this thing and again this is on the education side then there's a big I call the big uh wispy. Why should I listen to you? Right? Why should I listen to you? And if you can't answer that question for say a prospect, you know, prospective customer within the first like couple seconds, they'll just listen to somebody else because the reason that credibility matters so much is that it's actually lower effort to consume information from somebody who's an authority. And so if I'm if I'm listening to somebody who doesn't have proof and I'm listening to investing advice, I have to really think like, is this true? Does this make sense? If I'm listening to Warren Buffett, I don't have to think that. I'm like, I'm sure he's right. Now when someone's like, how do I get into this? You do what no one else can do. Well, if you are getting in, then document like document the proof of effort. So, you can do pro you can have proof of outcome just like what we do, right? What you do. But then there's when you're starting, there's proof of effort. Jimmy's first viral video is him counting to like a million. It's proof of effort. When you have nothing else, you have time. You have work. If you want to make if you want to say, "Hey, I want to I want to get into into sales stuff." It's like record your entire day of you selling. And then when you overcome something that's really good, that's real life with real stakes, clip the moment, right? And show yourself. It's like, I took 22 calls today. Let me tell you the best moment. I did a I did a 12-h hour day. In 3 minutes, I'll give you the best moments. It's like people want to deal.
时间压缩的价值
Guest: 所以我把它看作是对时间的压缩。人们之所以愿意听那些走在前面、已经取得所有这些成就的人的话,是因为我们可以压缩时间。
Original English
And so I think about that as a compression of time. And the reason that people listen to the people who are further ahead who've done all these things is because we can compress time.
Host: 嗯。
Original English
Mhm.
Guest: 你可以说,“嘿,你可以尝试自己去弄清楚这一切,但如果我能把 14 年的商业经验浓缩成 37 分钟交给你,这是一笔好买卖。”
Original English
You say, "Hey, you could try and figure this out on your own, but if I can compress 14 years of business advice into 37 minutes, that's a good deal."
Host: 你知道这让我想起了什么吗?七八年前,我曾服务过一些大客户,比如优步(Uber)、可口可乐(Coca-Cola)之类遍布全球的品牌。我们以前做过很多社交竞赛,社交媒体的竞赛活动,我过去在大脑里有一个关于“完美竞赛”的框架。我记得我第一次听说你并且你要来上我节目的时候,我翻阅了你的一些文章,发现你几乎有一个完全相同的框架。
Original English
Do you know what it reminded me of? Seven or eight years ago when I used to have, you know, big clients, Uber, Coca-Cola, whatever around the world. Um, we used to do a lot of like social competition, social media competitions, and I used to have this mental framework for the perfect competition. And I I I remember the day that I when I first heard of you and you were coming on my show, and I was looking through some of your writings, and you almost had an identical framework.
价值公式解析
Guest: 是的。所以核心——每本书都有一个核心概念,然后它会分解如何运用这个概念等等。但是“价值公式”(value equation)归根结底是:结果是什么?有些结果比其他结果更有价值。如果我能帮你理发,相比于我能让你拥有完美的身材,完美身材的价值更高。如果我能让你成为亿万富翁,相比于拥有完美身材,成为亿万富翁的价值更高。对吧。所以我们有“结果”(outcome),然后我们有“感知的实现可能性”(perceived likelihood of achievement)。
Original English
Yeah. So the the core so each of the books has one core concept and then it breaks down how to use it etc. But the value equation comes down to what's the outcome and some outcomes are worth more than others. If I can help you cut your hair versus I can get you to be in perfect shape. Perfect shape is worth more. If I can get you be a billionaire versus perfect shape, billionaire is worth more. Right. So we have outcome and then we have perceived likelihood of achievement.
Host: 感知的实现可能性。好的。所以这是……好的。很有趣。
Original English
Perceived likelihood of achievement. Okay. So this is the Okay. Interesting.
Guest: 是的,这与风险成反比。
Original English
Yeah, it's the inverse of risk.
Host: 是的。
Original English
Yeah.
Guest: 我认为这有多大可能实现?然后在这个公式的下方,我们有时间延迟(time delay)。[清嗓子] 我需要多长时间才能得到这个结果?然后我们还有努力(effort)。
Original English
How likely do I think it is? And then we have on the downside of this, we have um time delay. [clears throat] How long is it going to take me to get the thing? And then we have effort.
Host: 也就是牺牲吗?
Original English
Is this sacrifice?
Guest: 这算作努力和牺牲吗?
Original English
Is this effort and sacrifice?
Host: 不,不一样。
Original English
No, different.
Guest: 是的。所以,“努力”是指因为你做了一个决定,你必须开始去做的所有你不愿意做的事情。“牺牲”则是指因为这个决定,你必须停止去做的所有你喜欢的事情。所以,如果我开始健身,我就必须停止吃我喜欢的东西,并且我必须开始吃我不喜欢的东西。我必须开始起得更早,我不能睡懒觉了。我必须承受以前没有过的肌肉酸痛。所以这就是我付出的努力和牺牲部分。“时间延迟”则是指,好吧,如果我能在 3 分钟内练出好身材,还是需要 3 个月或 3 年的时间练出好身材。好吧,结果是我正在练出好身材,还是我正在成为亿万富翁?然后,这件事发生的可能性有多大?
Original English
Yeah. So effort is all the things that you have to begin to do as a result of a decision that you don't want to do. sacrifice all the good things that you have to stop doing as a result of a decision. So, if I get into fitness, I have to stop eating the stuff I like and I have to start eating stuff I don't like. I have to start waking up earlier, I can't sleep in as much. Uh, I have to be sore where I wasn't before. Um, and so that's my effort and sacrifice piece. The time delay is, okay, if I can get in shape in 3 minutes versus getting in shape in 3 months or 3 years, okay, the outcome is am I getting in shape or am I being a billionaire? And then how likely is this to happen?
Host: 嗯。
Original English
Mhm.
Guest: 因为在某种程度上,如果我花 19 美元买一份健身计划的 PDF,或者我花 3000 美元请一个私人教练每周面对面指导我三次,我对于买 PDF 还是请私教的“感知的实现可能性”是截然不同的,后者要高得多。
Original English
Because on some level, like if I buy a PDF of a fitness program for $19 or I pay $3,000 for a personal trainer to train me in person three times a week, my perceived likelihood of achievement of buying the PDF versus personal trainer is much higher.
Host: 嗯。
Original English
Mhm.
Guest: 然而,你要付出的努力和牺牲实际上会是相对固定的。但“实现可能性”这部分增加了。同时,“时间延迟”如果处理得当,应该也是固定的。但这就是解释产品层面价值差异的原因。但这个价值公式适用于所有事物。就像消费内容一样。
Original English
Now, the effort and sacrifice is actually going to be relatively fixed. But this is the part that goes up. Now, the time delay if done right should also be fixed there. But this is what explains the difference in value on a product level. But the value equation works for everything. Just like just like consuming content.
Host: 是的。
Original English
Yeah.
Guest: 我的结果是什么?我想我将要学到一些关于投资的知识。我认为他能提供价值,或者我消费这个内容能获得价值的可能性有多大?相当高。我消费这个内容需要投入的时间是多少?如果我要看一个 4 小时的视频,那么看的人会比看 3 分钟视频的人少,对吧?然后,当你纯粹只是在消费内容时,你实际上不需要做任何工作(努力)。但如果我想在这个基础上去采取行动,那这就是另一回事了。
Original English
What's my outcome? I think I'm going to learn some about investing. How likely is it that I think he can provide value or if I consume this? Pretty high. What's my time commitment of consuming this? If I'm going to watch a 4-hour video, fewer people do it than a three-minute video, right? And then um you don't really actually have to do any work when you're just purely consuming content. But if I wanted to take action as a result, then that's that's another part of it.
Host: 但这仍然要花掉我 20 分钟时间,这就是一种牺牲。我本可以用这个时间去看 Netflix 的。
Original English
But it's still going to cost me 20 minutes, which is a sacrifice. I could be watching Netflix.
Guest: 确实如此。我想如果我们把媒体消费作为讨论对象,那么努力和时间延迟基本上就是——我们在说达到结果的时间延迟吗?我将要变得富有。或者是吗?是的,时间永远是一个要素。有趣的是,在看过了我一生中数以万计的各种产品报价(offers),并思考了它们的价值之后,我认为最被人忽视的一点就是这个。
Original English
That's true. I think if we're using consumption of media as the thing, the effort and the time delay basically, are we talking time delay to outcome? I'm going to be rich. Um or am I? Yeah, the time is always going to be a component. What's interesting is that having looked at a zillion different offers over my life and thinking about value. Um the one that I think is most slept on is this one.
Host: 他们能多快实现这个 X 结果。
Original English
How quickly they can accomplish X outcome.
Guest: 如果你想进入某个行业并彻底颠覆它,那就去看看其他人都在做什么,然后用一半的时间去完成它。你几乎可以在任何行业做到这一点,因为总会有人愿意为此支付溢价。
Original English
If you want to get into a business and just completely disrupt it, do look at what everyone else is doing and do it half the time. You can do that in just about any business because there will always be someone who's willing to pay a premium for that.
Host: 这又回到了杰夫·贝索斯(Jeff Bezos)说过的,要把赌注押在那些不会改变的事情上。
Original English
Goes back to what um Jeff Bezos said about betting on things that won't change.
Guest: 是的。他围绕这一点提出的整个信条,一直是我……我想说是我最大的……
Original English
Yeah. that that like that his whole mantra around that has been one of my like I would say one of
拥抱不变的事物 (Embracing What Doesn't Change)
Speaker A: ……这是我规划未来时真正依赖的支柱。
Original English
Speaker A: ... my true pillars of like how do I plan for the future.
Speaker B: 请给大家提供一些背景信息,因为有些人可能从来没有听过杰夫(Jeff Bezos)谈论过这个话题,以及它意味着什么。
Original English
Speaker B: Give people context on that for those that haven't never heard Jeff talk about that and what that means.
Speaker A: 好的。我想我看到过他做的一个采访,别人问他:“那么,考虑到 X、Y 和 Z 这些条件,你怎么看未来?” 他回答说:“你知道,我其实不太去想什么事情将会改变。” 他说:“我花了多得多的时间去思考什么事情不会改变,然后我们在这些事情上下重注。我们相信,十年后的消费者会和现在一样,喜欢更便宜的价格。我们相信,十年后的消费者会和现在一样,更喜欢丰富的商品选择,而不是有限的选择。我们相信,如果消费者能在两个小时内收到商品,他们会比等上两天才收到更看重这一点。我们相信这些。我们可以在这些事情上下注。”
所以他只思考这些核心要素。如果我们考虑价值等式:他们让购物变得有多容易?只需一键下单。送货有多快?几乎是即时的。你还有在他们那里的购买记录。所以,这也是评价体系发挥作用的地方。可能性有多大?如果是 5000 条评价的五星级商品,那可能性就很高。如果它只有一点五星,而且只有两条评价,我可能就不会去买它 [笑声],即使它是同一个产品,仅仅是因为我们对它的感知不同。
Original English
Speaker A: So he I think I saw it as an interview that he did and they said so given X Y and Z what do you think about the future? And he said you know I don't really think that much about what's going to change. He said I spent a lot more time trying to think what's not going to change and then we bet really heavily on those things. We believe that customers will prefer cheaper prices 10 years from now just as much as they do now. We believe that customers will prefer more selection to less selection 10 years from now as much as they do now. We believe that if customers can get something in two hours, they will value that more than if it takes them two days. We believe in that. We can bet in that. And so he just thinks about these elements. And if we're thinking about the like the value equation, how easy did they make buying? It's one click. How fast does it come? It's almost immediate. You have a history of buying from them. So, and this is also where the reviews come in. How likely is it? Well, if it's a fivestar with 5,000 reviews, it's pretty high. If it's got a one and a half and it's got two reviews, I'm probably not going to buy it [laughter] even if it's the same product just because of our perception of it,
Speaker B: 对吧?
Original English
Speaker B: right?
Speaker A: 然后结果就是我愿意为了这个价格去采取什么行动,对吧?而且我思考这个时间延迟因素,是因为此时整个对话都围绕着一个核心观点在循环,那就是:
Original English
Speaker A: And then the outcome is what I'm willing to do for the price, right? And I think about this time delay component because of one thing that kind of loops over the whole conversation at this point is that
Speaker B: 如果一个积极的未来结果距离现在足够遥远,人们就会把它的价值视为零。
Original English
Speaker B: people will abstract the value of a positive future outcome to zero if it is long enough in the future.
Speaker A: 没错。即使它是确定的。
Original English
Speaker A: True. Even if it's guaranteed,
Speaker B: 你可以保证,如果你每周投资 100 美元或 200 美元到指数基金里,你将来会变得富有,对吧?几乎是肯定的。如果你坚持这么做 30、40 年,你会过得很好。
Original English
Speaker B: you can guarantee that you will be rich if you invest, you know, $100 a week or $200 a week, whatever into into an index fund, right? Pretty much. And if you do that for 30, 40 years, you you will be fine.
Speaker A: 正因为这需要 30 或 40 年,而你今天就能喝到拿铁,这种贴现基本上让未来的价值归零。我认为有两个教训是非常、非常难以学到的。我想威廉姆森(Williamson)谈论过这种类似于无法学习或无法传授的教训之类的事情。那些除非你亲身经历,否则很难观察到的教训。曾经为我工作的一个人,他说:“你知道,我消费你的内容很多年了。” 但他又说:“看到你每天早上 4 点就在办公室,而你根本不需要这么做。” 这种一致性,他说:“我在内容里看不到。我的意思是,我只看到了输出的结果。”
关于一致性,问题在于你需要本身具备一致性,才能见证一致性。你甚至无法观察到它——即使我把我正在做的事情拍成一个 10 秒的延时摄影,你也依然无法真正感知到它。所以,这是一致性的问题;而我认为关于长期主义因素的另一个点是:
Original English
Speaker A: Because it's 30 or 40 years and because the latte is today, the discount basically takes it to zero. There's two lessons that I think that are really, really hard to learn. And I think um Williamson talks about this with like unlearnable or unteachable lessons, things like that. Lessons that are difficult to observe unless you go through them. One of my one of the guys who worked for me, he said, "You know, I consumed your content for, you know, years." He said, "But seeing you at the office at 4:00 a.m. every day when you don't need to do this at all." The consistency of it, he's like, "I I don't see that in the content. I mean, I I see the output of that." And one of the things with consistency is that you need to be consistent in order to witness consistency. Like you can't even you can't even observe cons like even if I did a time lapse that takes 10 seconds of me doing you still don't perceive it. So there's there's the consistency piece and I think the other one with with regards to the long-term component
Speaker B: 是耐心。
Original English
Speaker B: is patience.
成功的延迟满足与复利 (Delayed Gratification and Compounding)
Speaker A: 是的。还有公平地说,是专注。因为我的合伙人,他说过这样的话,他说人们只看到你做出的选择,却没看到你拥有的选项。所以你其实很难见证专注。你只看到了胜利。
Original English
Speaker A: Yeah. Also to be to fair focus because um Shiron my partner says this. He says um people only see the choices you made not the options you had. And so you can't really witness focus. You just see winning.
Speaker B: 同样的道理,对于耐心,你也只能看到最终的胜利。就像你看一场马拉松,人们在起点那里,在终点那里,但中间的过程中没有观众。
Original English
Speaker B: And so to the same degree with patience again, you only see the win. Like if you look at a marathon, people are there at the beginning, they're there at the end. No one's here in the middle.
Speaker A: 是的。
Original English
Speaker A: Yeah.
Speaker B: 因为那是唯一有趣的部分。一场马拉松的内容会被剪成片头和片尾。你可能生生把它剪成一个 30 秒的片段,大家会说,耶!然后中间可能放几个里程碑,然后你想:等等,我们把这个压缩了。多划算啊!极好的时间回报。
你真的无法见证耐心,除非你从一开始就跟着它。当然,你的早期元老们,那些从《CEO日记》(Diary of a CEO)最开始就跟着你的人,他们看到了耐心的回报。但这是一些我希望……它的绝对反面就是史蒂夫·韦恩(Steve Wynn)谈到的。他说世界上最棒的事情,就是有人第一次来到他的赌场,下了重注并且赢了。这是世界上最好的事。能发生的最糟糕的事,就是他们第一次来就把钱输光了,因为那样他们就再也不会赌博了。
所以,他希望他们能提前获得那种巨大的强化事件,因为那样你就能变成一个赌博成瘾者,对吧?同样地,我对比如我未来的孩子,或者任何刚起步的人的期望是,在他们的生活中能发生这样一件事:他们因为延迟结果而获得奖励,并且因为这种延迟奖励的一致性努力而获得一个巨大的头奖。嗯。
Original English
Speaker B: Cuz it's the only fun part. The content of a marathon would be the the intro and the exit. Like you'd literally make it into a clip that's 30 seconds. It'd be like, yay. And then maybe a couple mile markers and it's like, wait, we compressed this. What a what a bargain. Great great return on time. You can't really witness patience unless you've literally followed it from the beginning which of course you'll have your OG people who are with you the beginning of Driver CEO and they've they've seen the patience start to play out but it's one of the things that like one of the the the ultimate gifts that I would hope and the equal opposite of this is Steve Win I think talked about how his the best thing in the world is that someone comes their first time to one of his casinos bets big and wins. It's the best thing ever. The worst thing that can happen is that the first time they come they lose their money cuz then they never gamble again. And so it's like they he wants that big reinforcing event up front because then you can become a gambling addict, right? And so to the same degree, my my hope for like my kid in the future or or anyone who's trying to start out is that they have something that happens in their life where they're rewarded for delaying the outcome and having a big jackpot as a result of the consistent effort where they they delayed the reward. M
Speaker A: 因为一旦你真正学到了这一课,你就会明白当你等待时,那个“大回报”究竟能有多大。
Original English
Speaker A: because as soon as you do learn that lesson, you see how big the big can be when you wait.
Speaker B: 是的,这就回到了我们刚才说的将长期主义作为一种策略。而且,是的,我其实只需要看一次那张复利收益图。实际上,看着我自己受众的增长:我发现在 Instagram 上发了 1000 篇帖子,才达到了 1000 个粉丝。但是在我最后的三个帖子里,当我有 7000 个粉丝的时候,我通过三个帖子获得了 30 万个粉丝,因为那时推出了轮播图,Instagram 奖励了所有发轮播图的人。我看到了那条增长曲线,然后心想,“哦,在成功这方面,总是先慢后快的。” 然后我开始做《日记》播客,头三年都没人听。接着突然之间,这简直太疯狂了,曲线直接呈一条垂直线上升,我想,“哦,这就是我多年前看到的那张一模一样的 Instagram 增长图。”
所以实际上,它是先慢后快的。但是对于大多数人来说,如果你从未体验过这种“慢”,你就会认为:“哦,是我能力不足,我搞砸了,我很蠢。”
Original English
Speaker B: Yeah, it goes back to what we were saying about long like long termism as a strategy. But also, yeah, like I only needed to look at that graph, the compounding returns graph once, actually looking at my own audience growth and seeing that I did a thousand posts on Instagram and reached 1,000 followers. And then in my last three, when I had 7,000 followers, I gained 300,000 followers in three posts because carousels had dropped in Instagram was rewarding everybody for carousels back then. And me seeing that graph and then going, "Oh, it's slow then it's fast in success." And then starting the diia and for 3 years nobody listening. And then all of a sudden it was like it was just crazy. It just went a vertical line up and go, "Oh, it's the same Instagram graph I saw all those years ago." So actually, you know, it's slow then it's fast. But most people if you've never experienced slow, you think, "Oh, I'm inadequate. I up. I'm dumb."
Speaker A: 但你现在有了那种信仰。
Original English
Speaker A: But you now you have that religion.
坚持与转向 (Pushing vs. Pivoting)
Speaker B: 是的。有人会犯选错道路的错误,但我认为更多的人犯的是放弃正确道路的错误。
Original English
Speaker B: Yeah. There are mistakes of picking the wrong path, but I think there are more mistakes of abandoning the right path.
Speaker A: 那你到底该如何判断呢?
Original English
Speaker A: How would you how do you know though?
Speaker B: 我认为创业者有一些问题是永远没有标准答案的。嗯。
Original English
Speaker B: So there's a handful of I think entrepreneur questions that are eternally unanswerable. Mh.
Speaker A: 比如什么时候该坚持,什么时候该转向?
Original English
Speaker A: Which is when do you push and when do you pivot?
Speaker B: 比如我该承担多少风险?
Original English
Speaker B: Like how much risk do I take on?
Speaker A: 嗯哼。
Original English
Speaker A: Mhm.
Speaker B: 比如我到底该消费还是该投资?因为你也不知道自己什么时候会死。
Original English
Speaker B: Like should should I consume or invest? Well, you don't know when you die.
Speaker A: 确实。
Original English
Speaker A: True.
Speaker B: 对吧。关于坚持还是转向的问题,我能给出的最好答案——因为我经常被问到这个问题,比如:“嘿,现在真的很难。我是不是应该让业务转型、做出改变,还是应该试着坚持熬过去?” 我的实际答案是:如果你创立这项业务时所依赖的某个基本假设,在你的商业实践中被证明是不成立的,我认为这就应该转向。但如果你最初的假设全都没有错,只是事情的发展没有你希望的那么快,或者没有你期望的那么容易,那么你就应该坚持。
Original English
Speaker B: Right. And so with the push and pivot one, the best answer that I have to this because I I get this one a lot like, "Hey, it's really hard. Should I should I pivot the business, change it, or should I try and like push through?" My actual answer is if you had a fundamental assumption that you based the business on that has been proven untrue from your business activities, I think it makes sense to pivot. If none of your original thesis are incorrect, it's just not happening as fast as you want or as easily as you want, then you push.
早于世界看到价值 (Going Earlier Than the World)
Speaker A: 有趣的是,作为一个创始人的本质也是比这个世界走得更早。当你回看那些显著的成功时,比如现在每个人都懂太空了,他们会说:“哦,我们现在可以造可回收火箭了。我们明白了。”
Original English
Speaker A: What's interesting is like the nature of being a founder as well on that is going earlier than the world. Like when you think about outside success, like everyone understands space now and they're like, "Oh, we can do reusable rockets now. We get it."
Speaker B: 但做那个先行者——第一人,
Original English
Speaker B: But being being the first guy
Speaker A: 或者第一个女性——我认为这才是创始人的本质所在。他们走在世界目前可获得的证据之前。因此,你需要有某种框架。我的一个框架——我以前从未明确表达过,我甚至不知道这听起来是否正确,但它一直指引着我——那就是:我相信我正在为一个很小的群体提供稀缺价值吗?
当我创办播客时,我在 Facebook 上和像 Ja 这样的人制作视频。那时候我们在 Facebook Watch 上能获得几千万的播放量,却没有人在谈论它。所以,我记得我做过一个关于两性关系的视频,播放量达到了 3300 万。坏家伙,根本没人在谈论它。没有人,就像没发生一样。然后我开始在我的卧室里录制这个名为《日记》的播客。我去了苹果店,花 100 美元买了麦克风,插到 GarageBand 里,自己试着剪辑,然后传到了网上,然后像我最好的两个朋友——办公室里的阿什(Ash)和奥利弗(Oliver)——他们脸上的表情。当他们听的时候,他们从来没有对我做出过那样的反应。
Original English
Speaker A: or the first woman um I think is really the essence of a founder. They go earlier than than the world's current available evidence. And thus there needs to be some kind of framework that you have. One of my frameworks which I've never articulated before and I don't even know if this is going to sound correct but it's just always guided me is um do I believe that I'm offering even a tiny group of people scarce value? So when I started the direo I was making Facebook videos with people like Ja. We we could get tens of millions of views on Facebook watch back then. No one was mentioning it. So, I remember this made this video about relationships that did 33 million views. Bad guy, no one would mention it. No one like no one. And then I started this podcast called The Dire in my bedroom. I got went to Apple, bought this microphone for $100, plugged it into Garage Band, tried to edit it myself, uploaded it, and like my two best friends, the look on their faces in the office, Ash and Oliver. When they listened to it, they had never reacted to me like that
提供稀缺价值与不可扩展的服务
Speaker A: (甚至超过)我之前做过的那些 Facebook 视频。然后当我下一周没有上传视频时,Oliver Yonv 跑来问我:“下一集什么时候出?”对我来说,那一刻就是证明。
Original English
Speaker A: ever before for the Facebook videos I've made. And then when I didn't upload the next week, Oliver Yonv came to me and said, "When's the episode coming out?" For me, that was it.
Alex: 是的。
Original English
Alex: Yeah.
Speaker A: 对我而言,我当时的感受是,我在这里做的事情为世界提供了稀缺价值。以至于我的一位对我非常直言不讳的挚友都在问我下一集什么时候出。所以现在我就遵循这个原则。因此,当我思考我们对未来的下注时,我痴迷于寻找那些能够提供稀缺价值的事物,哪怕它们是不可扩展的。
Original English
Speaker A: For me, I was like, I've done something here that's delivered scarce value to the world. So much so that one of my best friends who's very honest with me is asking me when the next one is. And so now I follow that. So when I'm thinking about the bets we make on the future, I'm obsessed about finding things that are delivering scarce value even if they're unscalable.
Alex: 我觉得你提到了一个关于“不可扩展部分”非常好的观点,因为这可以分为两部分。但首先是,人们不愿意去做某些事情。我看到初创企业家们会说,“嗯,那没有可扩展性。”然后我就会说,“你都破产了。”
Original English
Alex: I think you bring up a really good point about the unscalable part because so two parts of this. But one is people will not do things. I see beginning entrepreneurs say they're like, "Well, that's not scalable." And I'm like, "You're broke.
Speaker A: 是啊,
Original English
Speaker A: Yeah,
Alex: 你都破产了。这没关系。你可以不去追求可扩展。你只要能赚钱就行。那是没问题的。但这种想法也假设了,拥有更多技能和更多资源的未来的你,将没有能力去想出如何将其规模化。
Original English
Alex: you're broke. It's okay. You can you cannot be scal. You can just make money. That's okay." But it also assumes that your future self with more skills and more resources won't have the ability to figure out how to scale it.
Speaker A: 是的。
Original English
Speaker A: Yeah.
Alex: 而且大多数事情就像我们要在海洋中央建造城市一样。如果你正在创业,而这是你必须自掏腰包的地方,这就是《Offer》那本书的本质:从你所能提供的最不可思议的高价值事物开始。所以,不管你想收什么价格,在后面加上一两个零。懂吗?人们会觉得,那太疯狂了。我同意,是很疯狂。但你必须做什么才能让它值这个价?然后你列出所有你要做的事情——我的意思是,好吧,如果我要让某个人塑造好身材,我可能会去他们家里。我会帮他们买杂货。我会开车送他们去健身房,再从健身房接他们回来,以确保他们真的练了。收十万美金,这值得吗?然后他们会说,好吧,但这不可扩展。[笑声]
Original English
Alex: And most things are like we're building cities in the middle of the ocean. If you're starting a business, and this is where you have to not sell out of your own wallet, is and that's the nature of the offers book is start with the most absurdly valuable thing you possibly can. So, whatever price you want to charge, add one or two zeros to it. Okay? And it's like, that's crazy. I agree. Crazy. What would you have to do in order for that to be worth it? And then you list out all the things you I mean, well, if I was going to get somebody in shape, I'd probably go to their house. I would help them grocery shop. I would drive them to the gym and back from the gym to make sure that they actually did it. for 100 grand, is it worth it? And they're like, well, it's not scalable. [laughter]
Speaker A: 就像是,好吧,你只需要五个这样的客户就行了。
Original English
Speaker A: It's like, well, you only need five.
Alex: 而且我 [清嗓子] 认为,当你刚起步时,提供不可扩展的服务具有巨大的价值,原因之一是,你会得到更好的客户,因为你正在为稍微高端一点的东西收取高得多的费用。而且与比你富有的人交谈所带来的价值,将远超你为他们所做的事情带来的价值。
Original English
Alex: And I [clears throat] think when you're starting out, there's huge value in having unscalable services because one, you'll get better customers because you're going to be charging much more for something that's a little bit more premium. And the value of talking to people richer than you will do more for you than what you are doing for them.
Speaker A: 嗯。
Original English
Speaker A: Mh.
Alex: 所以他们会改变你的世界观,这也是为什么很多像高尔夫球童这样的人,当他们和所有这些百万富翁打高尔夫时跟他们交谈,就像是他们从这些人身上学到了太多,比如你是怎么赚钱的;他们学到了很多世界观,比如“哦,我不应该这样思考,我应该那样思考”。所以第一点是你得到了这个。第二点是,你能够去实践这种不可扩展的事情。
Original English
Alex: So like they will shift your worldview which is why like a lot of people like caddies who talk to all these millionaires when they're playing golf it's like they learn so much from the people like how do you make your money like they learn so much worldview of oh I shouldn't be thinking this way I should be thinking like this. So one is you get that. The second is that you are able to practice the unscalable thing.
Speaker A: 是的。
Original English
Speaker A: Yeah.
Alex: 然后你就可以想出,我该如何获取这种稀缺价值……好吧,这不可扩展。没关系。我们可以——就假设它不可扩展。好吧,那这其中有没有我可以扩展的元素,而我现在之所以知道,是因为我实际做过,而不是因为我想象过它,因为你的思维实验——我也觉得对我自己来说——通常都相当糟糕。比如我们预测未来的能力几乎是糟透了。所以我们认为我们知道未来会是什么样,但通常我们根本毫无头绪。[笑声] 所以这就像是,去动手做吧。你会收集到比别人丰富得多的数据,因为没有人做过,因为它不可扩展。然后你实际上就可以创造出更具可扩展性的东西,它是独一无二的,因为你真的亲身经历过。而且从——这说得有点偏商业了,但从品牌建设的角度来看,你可以说:“嘿,我有少数几个客户每个月付我 2000 美元来做这项高端服务。”对于你们中那些负担不起的人,我现在推出了这个(平价)产品。你已经锚定了一个高价。他们会把你视为山顶上的那个人,因为你服务于这些不可扩展的私人客户。然后你就可以像——你看看特斯拉的模式:从 Roadster 起步,然后你有了 Model S,接着你一路向下扩展到大众市场。所以我非常坚信要把价格定得尽可能高。首先打造非常高端的产品。让它带来高现金流、高利润、低可扩展性,这样你就可以拥有资金开始向下扩展……
Original English
Alex: And then you can figure out how do I take the scarce value okay this is not scalable. Fine. We can let's just say it's not scalable. Okay. Are there elements of this that are scalable that I now know because I've done it rather than because I thought about it because your thought experiments and I'd say for myself too are pretty terrible. Like our ability to predict the future is pretty god awful. And so we think we know what it's going to be like and we usually have no idea. [laughter] And so it's like go do it. You'll collect way richer data that no one else has done because it was unscalable. And then you can actually create something that's more scalable, that is unique because you actually went through it. And from a this is getting a little bit more businessy, but from a branding perspective, saying, "Hey, I have a handful of clients that pay me $2,000 a month to do this premium thing." For those of you who can't afford that, I now have this thing. You've already anchored high. They see you as the person on the hill because you deal with these unscalable, my private clients. And then you can have like you look at the Tesla model of start with the Roadster and then you have the Model S and then you work your way down to the masses. And so I'm a big believer in price as high as you can. Make the very premium thing first. Let that be high cash flow, high margin, low scalability so that you can then have the money to start working your way down
Speaker A: 面向更多的人。那么,如果我现在对你的公司进行法证般的剖析,然后我找来从第一天就创办了那家公司的 Alex,我就会说,看看他所取得的这一切成就是多么不可扩展啊。实际上,从你刚才说的话中,我完全可以提出这样一个观点:实际上,商业中价值创造的本质,就是解决那些看起来不可扩展的问题。
Original English
Speaker A: to more people. Well, if I was to forensically analyze your business now, and then I brought in Alex who started that business on day one and I go, look at how unscalable all this stuff is that he's accomplished. I actually would make the case from what you were just saying that actually the essence of value creation in business is solving problems that didn't look scalable.
用今天的资源解决明天的问题
Alex: 我刚才甚至还在想这里的(内容制作)流程,从你离开的那一刻起,比如就在现在,里面负责测试的团队,就在我们说话的时候,他们其实正在为你制作一本书。他们——他们刚才趁我们坐在这里时给我们拍了照。当这次采访结束时,他们会走进来把书递给我。我会签上名然后递给你。那本书里将会收录喜欢我们上次对话的粉丝语录。他们现在正把这些用拍立得打印出来。他们正在写。当这次对话结束时,我们将使用广告对你的名字进行 300 次测试,看看该如何介绍你。我知道 Alex 会赢的,因为你现在是个大名人了。但你想想我们刚开始做播客的时候。想象一下我在那里,用着 Garage Band 软件,兜里只有 100 美元。
Original English
Alex: I was just thinking about even the diio process here from the minute you leave like so right now the team in there that are doing the testing, they're actually making you a book as we speak. They take they took photos of us while we were sat here. And when this interview ends, they're going to walk in and hand me the book. I'm going to sign it and pass it to you. That book is going to contain quotes from fans that loved our last conversation. They're currently printing them off on Polaroids. They're writing it. When this conversation is done, we're going to test your name 300 times using ads to see how to introduce you. I know Alex is going to win cuz you're a big name now. But you think about when we started the podcast. Imagine me there with on Garage Band with $100.
Speaker A: 那不可扩展。
Original English
Speaker A: That's not scalable.
Alex: 那不可扩展。我经常使用这样一个框架,那就是你试图用今天的资源去解决明天的问题。
Original English
Alex: It's not scalable. I use this frame a lot which is that you are trying to solve tomorrow's problems with today's resources
Speaker A: 这是个谬论。这很荒谬。你没有资金。你没有技能。你没有关系网。你没有资源。你没有经验和过往的成绩。但未来的你会有。可是困难的部分在于,未来是个陌生人。
Original English
Speaker A: and it's a fallacy. It's ridiculous. You don't have the money. You don't have the skill. You don't have the connections. You don't have the resources. You don't have the experience and the track record. But future you will. But the hard part is future is a stranger.
Alex: 嗯哼。
Original English
Alex: Mhm.
Speaker A: 所以我认为我们制作这么多这种内容,就是为了尝试尽可能地去接近、去促使某人迈出第一步,让他们相信——比如你总会想出办法的。比如只要你不放弃,你就会赢。比如你只需要做到不停下脚步。基本上就是这样。你只需要不停下。只要你能获得反馈,你采纳反馈,你不断改进,并且你在足够长的时间跨度内坚持这样做,你就会赢。
Original English
Speaker A: And so I think we make a lot of this content to try and approximate as closely as possible to just pull the first step for someone to take to say believe like you will figure it out. Like as long as you do not quit, you'll win. Like you just have to not stop. That's basically it. You just have to not stop. As long as you get feedback and you take the feedback and you improve and you do that a long enough time horizon, you win.
Alex: 我们先——所以为了澄清一下,你并不是说要一条道走到黑去追逐一个糟糕的想法,而且绝不能固执地去追求一个糟糕的想法。你说的是要在前进中迭代。
Original English
Alex: Let's be So just to be clear that you're not saying pursue a bad idea all the way and just never be stubborn about the pursuit of a bad idea. You're saying iterate your way.
Speaker A: 是的。我们必须获得反馈。
Original English
Speaker A: Yeah. We have to get feedback.
Alex: 是啊。我的意思是,如果你想做一款狗狗滑板,你向 100 位狗主人推销狗狗滑板,然后他们都不想要,而你却说:“嗯,我真的相信这个狗狗滑板的想法。”然后你把狗狗滑板拿给他们,他们仍然真的一点也不想要。你可能就不该去卖狗狗滑板了。
Original English
Alex: Yeah. I mean, if you want to have a doggy skateboard and you pitch a hundred dog owners on the doggy skateboard and then none of them want it and you're like, "Well, I really believe in this doggy skateboard idea." And then you bring them the doggy skateboard and then they really still don't want it. You probably shouldn't sell doggy skateboards.
Speaker A: 所以,你应该退出狗狗滑板的生意。
Original English
Speaker A: So, you should quit the doggy skateboard business.
Alex: 是的,但你不应该放弃做生意。
Original English
Alex: Yes, but you shouldn't quit business.
Speaker A: 好的。另一件——
Original English
Speaker A: Okay. The other
Alex: 我认为这是局部与全局的区别。
Original English
Alex: I think it's local versus global.
Speaker A: 哪怕 [清嗓子] 你只是用这种方式重新定义失败,它也会让失败变得更容易让人接受得多。比如你摸索出答案的过程,本身就伴随着许多次失败。我的意思是,有多少次失败的节目、失败的标题、失败的包装,你忘了开麦克风并录了全程,我敢肯定——
Original English
Speaker A: Even [clears throat] if you just reframe failure in that way, it makes it way more palatable. Like you figuring it out is a lot of failures. I mean, how many failed episodes, failed headlines, packaging, you forgot to turn the mic on and did the whole I'm sure
Alex: ——还有人跑来偷走了存有音频的硬盘。就像这样 [笑声]
Original English
Alex: someone came and stole the hard drive with the audio on it. It's like [laughter]
Speaker A: 会有上百次这样的失败。但只要它没有演变成一种全局性的失败,也就是“我不再做这个了”,那你就是没问题的。
Original English
Speaker A: there's there's going to be hundred of those. But as long as it doesn't become a global failure of I'm no longer doing this, then you're good.
利用外部专家扩展技能
Speaker A: 一家企业能做的最聪明的事情之一,就是打造一家看起来规模更大的公司,而不需要真正像大公司那样去招募全职人员。但我们都面临的问题是,大多数公司内部并不具备所有的技能。所以,当我观察如今获得真正成功的企业时,他们在所有人身上呈现出的一致模式,就是他们行动有多迅速。他们引入新兴领域具备技能的专家,以保持自身的领先地位。即便是在我们公司,过去一年里,我们也一直在招募像 AI 原生战略、无代码构建以及产品工作流等领域的顶尖人才。而我们正是通过我们的长期合作伙伴 Fiverr Pro 找到这些人才的。他们的高级服务只向你展示经过严格审查的人才。因此,你始终能得到一份保障:任何你引入来协助你完成复杂项目的人,都具备所需的能力。
Original English
Speaker A: One of the smartest things a business can do is build like a bigger company without actually hiring like one. But the problem we all face is that most companies don't have every skill in house. So when I look at the businesses seeing real success today, the consistent pattern with all of them is how quickly they move. They bring in specialists with skills in emerging areas to keep themselves ahead. Even in our company, we spent the last year pulling in talent across areas like AI native strategy, no code builds, and product workflows. And we find this talent through our longtime partner Fiverr Pro. Their premium service only shows you vetted talent. So you've always got the safeguard that anyone you pull in to help you with a complex project has the
Finding Pioneering Talent
Speaker A: 你正在寻找的技能,他们将以与你的内部团队相同的高标准进行交付。最重要的是,他们能跟上节奏。这是一个简单的策略,但它让我们在不牺牲质量的前提下保持敏捷。所以,如果你的企业需要这类技能,请访问 pro.fr.com,寻找能填补你业务空白的先锋人才。网址是 pro.fr.com。
Original English
Speaker A: skills that you're after and will deliver to the same high standards as your internal team. And most importantly, they'll keep up with the pace. It's a simple strategy, but it lets us stay agile without compromising on quality. So if you need these kind of skills in your business, head to pro.fr.com to find pioneering talent to fill your business's gaps. That's pro.fr.com.
Self-Awareness and Base Reality
Speaker A: 我非常着迷的一件事,几乎是不可教的一件事就是……我想是自我认知。
Original English
Speaker A: One of the great fascinations I have and almost one of the unteachables is self I think it's self-awareness.
Speaker B: 是的。我说是判断力。是的。
Original English
Speaker B: Yeah. I say judgment. Yeah.
Speaker A: 再次强调判断力。对。因为你有没有遇到过这样的人,他们走到你面前说一些冠冕堂皇的话。他们想去月球。比方说,这是一个假设的情况,你看着他们,你在心里说:你不是宇航员。你明白我的意思吗?[笑声] 然后你该如何……你该如何给他们那种类似于“提高一下自我认知”的建议?知道你擅长什么,不擅长什么。我认为人们真正想要达到的是一种对基础现实的理解,或者说更准确的理解。
Original English
Speaker A: Judgment again. Yeah. Because I have you ever had someone come up to you and say something grandio. They want to go to the moon. Let's say hypothetical and you look at them and you go you're not a spaceman. Do you know what I mean? [laughter] And how do you how do you what how do you then give them that advice which is like raise one self-awareness. Know what you're good at and what you're bad at. I think what people are trying to get at is a an understanding or more accurate understanding of base reality.
Speaker B: 而且,那些正在实现你想实现的目标而你却没有做到的那些人,从根本上说,如果你正在做事,而你想要发生的事情却没有发生,那么你要么是对世界的认知模型不正确,要么是你拥有的变量不正确。
Original English
Speaker B: And the people who are achieving the things that you want to achieve and you haven't been able to fundamentally if you're doing stuff and what you want to have happen is not happening your model of the world is either incorrect or the variables you have are incorrect.
Speaker A: 你是如何培养出对现实更准确的认知的?
Original English
Speaker A: How did you cultivate a more accurate vision of reality?
Speaker B: 所以在实践中,我非常相信行为主义。
Original English
Speaker B: So I'm practice I'm a big believer in behaviorism.
Speaker A: 那是什么?
Original English
Speaker A: What's that?
Speaker B: 操作性条件反射,这基本上是你训练机器的方式,他们弄清楚了如何训练人工智能的方式,即强化训练,这与你训练人类的方式完全相同。
Original English
Speaker B: operant conditioning which is basically how you train machines how they figured out how to train AI which is reinforcement training is the exact same way you train humans
Speaker A: 好的。
Original English
Speaker A: okay
Behaviorism and Incentives
Speaker B: 所以当你把自己看作是被训练的对象时,我们就能更好地预测人们是否会购买,人们是否会接受这个提议。比方说,我有一位爷爷,他不想吃药,而医生说这药能让他延寿十年。好,护士和我在家,她打算试着给爷爷喂这颗药片。爷爷说:“这药的味道就像……我不想吃。”他直接把她推开了。护士退了回来,摊开双手说:“你可以把马牵到水边,但你不能强迫它喝水。”对吧?
Original English
Speaker B: and so when you see yourself as the subject that is being trained then we can make better predictions of will people buy will people take this offer let's say I've got a grandpa and he doesn't want to take his medicine and the medicine the doctor said was going to extend his life by 10 years okay the nurse is at home with me and she's going to try and give grandpa the the pill. And he says, "It tastes like I don't want to have it." He just brushes her away. She comes back, she throws her hands up and she's like, "You lead a horse to water, you can't make it drink." Right?
Speaker B: 实用主义者或行为主义者会说:“不,是你让其他许多选项变成了比吃药更有可能的选项。”因此,我们需要做的是,让吃药成为他能获得的最美好、最简单的选择。所以你要做的第一件事就是把药片碾碎。然后我会说:“好吧,我们把它放进一些柠檬水里。把它放进冰箱里,冰镇一下。”
Original English
Speaker B: The operationalist or the behaviorist would say, "No, you've made many other options the more likely option than taking the pill." And so what we need to do is make the pill the nicest and easiest option available to him. And so the first thing you would do is you'd crush the pill up. And then I would say, "Okay, let's put it in some lemonade. Put it in the in the fridge, make it ice cold.
Speaker B: 好了,我要拿一些咸味的花生出来,然后把它放在爷爷面前,对吧?然后我要拿出一个,你知道的,国际象棋棋盘或双陆棋棋盘出来,然后坐在他面前,把一切都摆好,然后说:“嘿,我知道你之前说你想玩双陆棋,而过去三个星期我都拒绝了。这是柠檬水。你想玩吗?如果你喝完柠檬水,我们就可以玩。”现在爷爷喝柠檬水的可能性有多大?
Original English
Speaker B: All right, I'm going to bring out some peanuts that are salty, and I'm going to put it in front of the grandpa, right? And then I'm going to come out with a, you know, a chess board or a back gammon board, and I'm going to sit in front of him, and set it all up and say, "Hey, I know you said you wanted to play back, and I've said no the last three weeks. Here's the lemonade. Do you want to play? If you finish the lemonade, we can play." How likely is it that grandpa now drinks the lemonade?
Speaker A: 非常高。但归根结底,我们只是……我们并没有去说服。我们只是安排了条件,以最大化我们想要的结果发生的可能性。人们没有意识到的是,那些成功的人在解决问题时使用的攻击向量数量,比那些刚起步的人要高出几个数量级。那些刚起步的人会觉得:“我和三个人谈过了,就这些。他们说他们不想要。”我之所以讲这个故事,是因为这对我来说是那些重要的时刻之一。我有一位导师。他说:“你应该发一些传单。”他就是那样做广告的。他有一个拥有 22 家分店的大型连锁企业。而我当时觉得:“好吧,那我就发些传单吧。”我发了 300 份。嗯,然后什么也没发生。呃,好吧,有一个人打电话来,他们说:“我把他的车给划了。”然后我当时想:“感谢上帝。”他没有……我没有任何钱。嗯,所以他打电话给我,或者一两周后我打电话给他,他说:“哦,那个,你知道,花(传单)发得怎么样了?”我当时觉得,我已经准备好了。我就像是:“我要让你看看。”是的。我要让你看看。兄弟,什么都没发生。他甚至没有像……我本来等着他来跟我争论。他就像是:“好吧,你的测试规模是多大?”我当时一愣:“嗯?”我说:“我发了 300 份传单。”然后他说:“是的,300 份很难知道什么行得通。”他说:“我们通常每个测试批次发 5000 份,直到我们知道它起作用。”他说:“在那之后我们每天发 3000 份。”所以他每个月发 150,000 份传单,而我发了 300 份。所以,尽管人们可能不认为,这就像是“更努力地工作”,比你领先一百步的人的活动和产出量,通常是一百倍甚至更多。现在这似乎深不可测,因为你看着山顶,心想,我该如何到达那里?但是你从迈出第一步开始……
Original English
Speaker A: Super high. But at the end of the day, we just we didn't persuade. We arranged the conditions to maximize the likelihood of the outcome that we wanted. What people miss is that the the amount of attack vectors that people who succeed approach a problem with is orders of magnitude greater than someone who is starting out. Is they're like, I talked to three people and that was it. And they said they didn't want it. And I I tell this this story because it was it was one of those big moments for me, which is I I had a mentor. He said, "You should put some flyers out." That's how he advertised. He had a big chain of 22 locations. And I was like, "All right, I'll put some flyers out." I put 300 out. Um, and then nothing happened. Uh, well, one person called and they said, "I digged his car." And then I was like, "Thank God." He didn't I didn't have any money. Um, so he called me up or I called him like a week or two later and he was like, "Oh, how'd the, you know, how' the flowers go?" And I was like, I was ready. I was, "I'm gonna show you." Yeah. I'm gonna show you. Dude, nothing happened, man. And he didn't even like I was like I was waiting for him to try and fight me. like, "Well, what was your test size?" I was like, "Hm." I was like, "I put out 300 flyers." And he was like, "Yeah, it's tough to know if anything works at 300." He's like, "We usually put out 5,000 um per test batch until we know it works." He said, "Then we do 3,000 a day after that." And so he was doing 150,000 flyers a month and I put out 300. And so as much as people don't think that like it's like work harder, it's the the volume of activity and output that people who are a hundred steps ahead of you really is often times 100 times more. Now it seems unfathomable because you're looking at the top of the hill and like how do I get there? But you start by making one
Speaker B: 然后你就会从低效的痛苦中吸取教训。比如当你在编辑时,你同时在对 300 个标题进行拆分测试。
Original English
Speaker B: and then you learn through how painful the inefficiency is. Like when you're editing that you're doing the split test for the headlines 300 of them at a time.
Speaker A: 你能学到东西是因为你觉得这太痛苦了。它是有效的,但天哪,这太痛苦了。正是这种痛苦激励着你,因为你想要回报,但你不想为了寻找更有效的方法而经历痛苦。然后当它变得高效时,你就做了其他任何人都不会想做的稀缺工作,因为甚至没有人知道它的效果有这么好。
Original English
Speaker A: You learn because you're like this is so painful. It works but my god is it painful. that that is what motivates you because you want the payoff but you don't want the pain to figure out ways to make it more efficient. And then when it becomes efficient, you did the scarce work that no one else wants to do because no one even knows it works as well as it does.
Speaker B: 然后突然之间你就有了那种,嗯,你相对于其他所有人就有了稀缺的竞争优势。
Original English
Speaker B: And then all of a sudden you have that um you have a scarce competitive advantage over everyone else.
Doing and Listening
Speaker A: 在这最重要的一点上,我听到了这样一个观点:就像是边做边听。这听起来很简单。你所说的强化学习是你使自己与现实相协调的方式。但你甚至自己也曾说过,有那么一段时间,你听了很多有声读物。
Original English
Speaker A: At the very top of that, I heard this idea of like doing and listening at the same time. And this sounds very simple. You're talking about reinforcement learning being the way that you tune yourself to reality. But you've even said yourself once upon a time you were doing a lot of listening books.
Speaker B: 你在阅读,却没怎么行动。有些人只是在一味地行动,完全不倾听。
Original English
Speaker B: You were reading and there wasn't much doing. Some people just do the doing and no listening.
Speaker A: 是的。
Original English
Speaker A: Yeah.
Speaker B: 所以他们没有进行调整。但是这种类似行动,然后基于结果进行某种强化学习的过程,就是一个人培养自我认知的方式。这实际上是我听到过的最准确的定义,就好像,这才是你真正能够更加契合这个世界的方式,通过有时会带来痛苦的反馈——
Original English
Speaker B: And and so they don't tune. But this sort of like doing and then sort of reinforcement learning based on the outcomes is how one cultivates their self-awareness. That's actually the most accurate definition I've ever heard of like that's actually how you get more in tune with the world is through painful sometimes feedback
Speaker A: 数据。
Original English
Speaker A: data.
Speaker B: 然后我听到的另一件事就是,你谈论的只是关于,仅仅相信人类的激励机制。
Original English
Speaker B: And then the other thing I heard was you talking just about like just believing in human incentives.
Speaker A: 是的。而且这……这听起来像是一个 [笑声] 实际上我花了十年的时间才最终接受了这个简单的想法,那就是除非人类是精神病患者,否则他们真的不会在激励机制之外行事,而这正像是他们入狱的原因,因为他们的行为超出了社会激励的范畴。他们就像是杀了人或者做了诸如此类的事。实际上,当你思考团队建设或客户时,第一个问题应该是为什么他们不这样做?这就好比,他们做决定的激励因素是什么?你刚刚谈到了那个给某人双陆棋棋盘的例子,而且一些……
Original English
Speaker A: Yes. And and this like it it sounds like a [laughter] it took me 10 years to just s settle on the simple idea that humans don't really behave outside of their incentives unless they're psychopaths and that's like why they go to jail because they acted outside of social incentives. They like killed someone or something. Actually, when you think about team building or customers, the first question should be why aren't they? It's like what are the what what are the incentives in which they are making their decision? And you talked about that example there of giving someone the gamin board and some
Speaker B: 你改变了他的动机。是的,我们只需要调整一下各种杠杆。所以这就好比,如果你销售业绩不佳,我们放到一个商业环境中来看。这就像是你没有把向你购买变成最方便、最理想的选择。
Original English
Speaker B: you're changing his incentives. Yeah, we just need to move the levers around. And so it's like if you're not selling well to get to a business situation. It's like you haven't made buying from you the most convenient, nicest option.
Speaker A: 这是一种非常重要的思考方式,就像你给某人提供一份工作,而他们说:“不,我不想做这份工作。”
Original English
Speaker A: It's such an important way to think like you offer someone a job and they say, "No, I don't want the job."
Speaker B: 你可能会想到很多原因,但实际上,如果你只是将其推导至最基本的第一原则性激励因素,那是什么呢?这就可能像是一个跷跷板,就像你在这里的价值交换一样。
Original English
Speaker B: You can think lots of things, but actually if you just reason it down to the the first principal incentives, what what was and you could it could be a seesaw like kind of like your value trade here.
Speaker A: 我给他们提供了什么?嗯……他们付出了什么代价?
Original English
Speaker A: What did I offer them? Um what did it cost them?
Speaker B: 是的。
Original English
Speaker B: Yeah.
Speaker A: 那是净正收益吗?所以我有这个结论。所以我所有的说服性文案都是这样写的。这就是我们的做法。所以我们会说“加加减”、“减加”、“减减”。好了,这是写文案最简单的方法。这也是思考营销最简单的方法。如果你做了这件事,你会得到更多好东西。
Original English
Speaker A: And was that net positive? So I have this. So I write all my persuasion like this. This is this is how we do it. So we say uh plus plus minus uh minus plus minus minus. All right. This is the easiest way to write copy. The easiest way to think about marketing. If you do the thing, you get more good stuff.
Speaker B: 如果你,呃,不做这件事,你会得到更多 [哼声] 坏东西。嗯。
Original English
Speaker B: If you uh don't do the thing, you get more [snorts] bad stuff. Mhm.
Speaker A: 如果你做了我想让你做的事,或者你不做这件事,你得到的好东西就会减少。如果你按照我想要的方向去做,你得到的坏东西就会减少。所以这个和这个就是我们的……
Original English
Speaker A: If you do the thing I want or so you don't do the thing, you get less good stuff. And if you do what I want, you get less bad stuff. And so this and this are our
改变人类行为的激励机制 (Incentive Structures and Behavioral Change)
Speaker A: 我们在劝说别人采取行动时,会使用各种说服要素。但我们也必须使用“反向操作”,这就好比在说:“嘿,另外我们还有这样的情况,假设你不报名参加我的健身项目。这就意味着,未来你将无法和孩子们共度这些美好时光,对吧?”好事减少了,坏事增加了,对吧?你会有更多的健康问题,更多的麻烦事。
Original English
Speaker A: persuasion elements that we say to do the thing. But we also have to like call playing the don't, which is like, hey, also we have these situations of let's say that you don't sign up for my fitness program. Well, that means that you're not going to have these times with your kids in the future, right? more good less good stuff, right? You're going to have more health issues, more bad stuff.
Speaker B: 而且你关心的人,那些你渴望得到他们认可的人,也不会给你那种你极度渴望的认可。所以我们只是在这些极具说服力的要素之间来回切换,但它们本质上都是在说:如果你按我说的做,好事就会增加,坏事就会减少。
Original English
Speaker B: And the people who you care about, who you want approval from, aren't going to give you that approval that you so desperately yearn for. And so we just pingpong between these persuasive elements, but all they are is saying more good, less bad if you do the stuff I want.
Speaker A: 作为一个现在雇佣了数百名员工的人,这大概就是我如何看待在一个庞大的群体中进行行为改变的。你可以站在团队面前说:“嘿,各位,顺便说一下,请采用人工智能。请大家使用人工智能。”但他们的激励机制就是做好他们原本的工作。
Original English
Speaker A: And as a as someone who employs hundreds of people now, this is kind of how I think about behavioral change in a group big group of people. You can you can stand in front of the team and say, "Hey, everybody adopt AI by the way, please. Please adopt AI. But their incentive structure is to do their job.
Speaker B: 嗯哼。
Original English
Speaker B: Mhm.
Speaker A: 你读过《创新者的窘境》(The Innovator's Dilemma)吗?这是我在这个主题上一直以来最喜欢的书之一。
Original English
Speaker A: And have you read the innovators dilemma? It's one of my favorite books of all time on the subject of
Speaker B: 没有,但我对它很熟悉。
Original English
Speaker B: No, but I'm familiar with it.
Speaker A: 书中也谈到了同样的事情,那就是人类只是在他们的激励机制内行事。想要改变人,就要改变他们的激励机制。很多刚起步时充满妄想的人,以为他们能够去改变别人。
Original English
Speaker A: Talks to the same thing as well, which is just humans just act inside their incentive structure. Want to change humans, change their incentive structure. A lot of people who are delusional when they start out think that they're going to change people.
引导需求与定位受众 (Channeling Demand and Targeting Audiences)
Speaker B: 我觉得关于市场我最喜欢的一句话,我想是文案大师加里·哈尔伯特(Gary Halbert)说的。他说,我们不想去创造需求。他说,我们要引导需求。
Original English
Speaker B: And I think one of my favorite market I think Gary Halpert said this is a copywriter. Um he said we don't want to create demand. He said we want to channel it.
Speaker A: 这是一个非常有趣的细微差别。他的意思是,需求必须是现成存在的。我们只需要从那条河流中分出一点点,把它引向我们。
Original English
Speaker A: It was just it just is such an interesting nuance. He's like that demand like the demand needs to be there. We just need to just carve a little bit of that river and point it towards us.
Speaker B: 我觉得当你思考你自己的节目时,注意力是存在的。每个人每天的每一秒都在消耗注意力。
Original English
Speaker B: And I think when you're thinking about for you with the show, the attention is there. The attention is being spent every second of every day from every human.
Speaker A: 所以我们不去创造注意力。
Original English
Speaker A: And so we're not going to create attention.
Speaker B: 我们要去引导它。我们要让我们的选项成为相比其他替代方案来说,最好、最方便的选择。然后,实际上就是深入到非常具体的细节:我需要为谁做这个?接着你就会涉及用户画像、细分群体和市场,因为对一个人有吸引力的东西,对另一个人可能没有吸引力。这就是为什么你在商业中做出的最高杠杆的决策之一可能就是:我服务于谁?
Original English
Speaker B: We're going to channel it. and we're going to make our option the nicest most most convenient option compared to alternatives. And then it's really just getting into the very gritty details of who I need to make this for. Then you get into avatars and subsegments and markets because what makes it attractive to one person might not make it attractive to another. And that is why probably one of the highest leverage decisions that you make with the business is who do I serve?
Speaker A: 当你开始一项业务或向任何人提供任何产品时,不管它是不是内容,你必须在刚开始的时候就刻意决定它是为谁准备的吗?
Original English
Speaker A: Do you have to be intentional about that when you're starting a business or offering any product to anyone, whether it's content, do you have to at the start decide who it's for?
Speaker B: 既是,也不是。这是一个很糟糕的回答,但在开始时,你只需要让任何人给你钱就行了。你就已经满足了成为企业家的前提条件。你接受了一个陌生人的钱。恭喜你,你有了一家公司。我遇到的大多数企业,特别是服务业——因为至少在美国,78% 甚至 80% 的企业都是服务型的。通常,它们都是从接受所有人的钱开始的,因为你会觉得,“哦,我是做播客代理业务的。” “哦,你有一个播客……” “哦,你想开始一个播客……” “是的,我也能帮你。” 就像,因为只要他们有脉搏和信用卡,而这两者之一就是成为客户的要求,对吧?[笑声] 所以你能接什么就接什么,对吧?但你很快就会意识到,要想扩大规模变得非常困难。没关系,因为你必须做生存和起步所需的事情。这很好。但通常在收入达到 100 万到 300 万美元之间时,你必须做出一个决定。你会说,“嘿,为了现在能够扩大规模,既然我有了资源、经验和技能,我可以说,这些客户比那些客户更容易打交道,而且付给我们的钱也更多。” 嗯哼。
Original English
Speaker B: Yes and no. which is a terrible answer, but to start, you just need to get anybody to give you money. You have then met the requisites for being an entrepreneur. You've accepted money from a stranger. Congratulations, you have a business. Most businesses that I encounter, especially in services, because it's 80% of at least in the US, 78% of all businesses are service based. Typically, it starts with accepting all money from everyone cuz you're like, "Oh, I do podcast agency stuff." Oh, you have a Oh, you want to start a Yeah, I could help you, too. Like, because they have a pulse and a credit card, and one of those was the requirement for being a customer, right? [laughter] And so you you take what you can get, right? But you quickly realize that it becomes very difficult to scale that. And that's okay because you had to do what you need to do to survive and get started. And that's fine. But usually between 1 and 3 million, you have to make a decision where you say, "Hey, in order for me to scale this now that I have the resources and the experience and the skill, I can say these customers are easier to deal with and pay us more than these customers." Mhm.
Speaker A: 如果我不需要服务 10 种不同类型的客户,而只需要服务一种类型的客户,那会让后端的运营变得简单得多,因为我可以开始将我们的交付模板化和系统化。而在前端,如果是我们在向人们做广告,与其说我们为所有人做播客代理,不如说我们使用播客帮助医生吸引患者。
Original English
Speaker A: And if I didn't have to serve 10 different types of customers and I only had to serve one type of customer, it would make the operations on the back way easier because I could start templatizing and start systematizing what our delivery is. And on the front end, if we're advertising people, instead of saying we do advert your podcast agency for everyone, we say we help doctors generate patients using podcasts.
Speaker B: 这就像,哦,突然间,正确的客户就知道这是为他们准备的,对吧?好的。所以现在我们正在吸引正确的人,而这些人也是我们通过试错和反馈已经弄清楚的最有价值的人。然后我们就拥有了一个更具扩展性的产品,因为我们不需要为 10 个人制作 10 种不同的东西。我们为 10 个人制作 1 种东西。
Original English
Speaker B: It's like, oh, all of a sudden the correct customer knows that this is for them, right? Okay. And so now we're attracting the right people and then those people are the ones that we already figured out through trial and error and feedback are worth the most. And then we have a more scalable product because we don't have to make 10 things for 10 people. We make one thing for 10 people.
Speaker A: 对吧?切割一次,出售两次,对吧?出售两次。就是这个理念。而不是切割一次,出售一次。
Original English
Speaker A: Right? Cut once, sell twice, right? Sell twice. That's the idea. Not cut once, sell once.
未来具有前景的商业机会 (Promising Business Opportunities for the Future)
Speaker B: 我其实不太喜欢这个问题,但我还是要问一下。嗯,在你看来,由于世界正在发生的变化,是否出现了一些显而易见的商业机会,是那些想要崭露头角的年轻人应该去瞄准的?15 年前的我,机会是开一家代理机构。我觉得那个机会现在已经有点饱和了,如果我敢这么说的话。
Original English
Speaker B: I almost hate this question, but I'm going to ask it anyway. Um, are there any obvious businesses that have emerged in your point of view because of what's going on in the world that a young person that wants to cut their teeth should probably be aiming at? 15 years ago for me, it was starting an agency. I think that opportunity is a little bit saturated now, if dare I say.
Speaker A: 我认为代理机构的性质已经改变了。我想,如果你现在想做类似 Reddit 声誉管理的事情,那算是一种较新的服务,因为 Reddit 已经成为了一个越来越大的平台,人们会去那里看信息。比如,我觉得老派的 Meta 广告代理机构可能比现在存在的一些更新的机会(比如视频剪辑机构)更难打入市场。我认为这些依然是当前的机会。所以,如果我们有适合初学者的机会,然后我们也有我认为是非纯人工智能的绝佳机会。因为有一个显而易见的答案,比如“创办一个人工智能项目,为小企业实现自动化”,是的,你绝对应该这么做,那里有很多钱可以赚。这很好。好吧。
Original English
Speaker A: I think that the nature of agencies has changed. I think you like if you want to do like a Reddit reputation management now, that's kind of a more emerging offer because Reddit's become a bigger and bigger platform and people look there. Like I think the the old school meta ad agency might be harder to crack into than some of the more newer opportunities that exist and clipping agencies things like like those things are still opportunities right now I think. So if we have beginner opportunities and then we have what I think are great opportunities that are let's just say non just AI because there's the obvious answer of like start an AI thing and automate for small businesses and yes you should absolutely do that and there's lots of money to be made there. Great. Okay.
Speaker A: 除此之外,什么是不变的?你可以把赌注押在什么上面?我敢打赌,未来的人类仍然会像现在一样想要看起来美丽动人。我认为人们会想保持年轻的容貌,因此我认为抗衰老医疗美容、保持某种特定的外表、肽类治疗等等,所有这个领域的业务都会大赚特赚,而且现在就已经非常火爆了。那里存在着巨大的供需缺口。信不信由你,我认为,财富顾问之类的也可以,因为我看到了很多企业,而我关注的正是那些在我看来,赚的钱比他们的技能水平所暗示的要多的人。
Original English
Speaker A: Outside of that what's not going to change? What can you bet on? I'm gonna bet that humans are going to want to still want to look beautiful in the future as they do now. I think people are going to want to stay young looking and so I think the longevity med spa look a certain way peptide all of that world is going to crush and is already crushing right now. there's a huge supply demand issue. Believe it or not, I think uh wealth um advisers I can because I see so many businesses and the ones I pay attention to are the people who are making more money than I think their skill level
Speaker A: 嗯,意味着……对,可以说得通。比如反过来看,如果我看到有人开餐厅一年能赚 2000 万美元,我就会想,“兄弟,如果在别的行业,你大概一年能赚 2 亿美元。” 嗯,我曾和一个健身房老板交谈,他一年赚 1000 万美元,而且那是一家服务型健身房,不是那种提供弹力带设施的健身房,这完全不同。像 Crunch Fitness 只是那种“来使用设备就好,随便你”的类型。但一个真正的服务型健身房(无论是私教还是半私教)是一门很难扩大规模的生意;起步容易,但规模化很难。他问我:“你怎么看?”你觉得我的机会在哪里?我当时就说:“说实话,兄弟,你可以把你现在的这套技能——因为你有 100 名员工,而且你试图利用低技能劳动力来提供出色的体验,你还必须维持企业文化,这里面有太多你必须要做的事情——就像如果你把同样的这套技能应用到一个更优越的载体上,你会赚得更多。当然,你可能不想要那样,你可能对你现有的生意很满意,继续做下去也可以,只是你要知道,这是一门更难做的生意。” 总而言之,我认为财富管理是一个巨大的领域。嗯,与财富相关的服务依然非常赚钱。保险风险在未来依然会存在。
Original English
Speaker A: um would canote right would would would make sense for like on the flip side I say like if I see somebody who's who's doing $20 million a year as a restaurant I'm like bro you could probably do 200 million a year in a different business. Um, I had a conversation with a gym owner that was doing $10 million a year and it was a service-based gym, not uh a facility elasticious gym, which is different. Like a crunch fitness is just like use the equipment, whatever. But a true service based gym, which is either personal training or semi-private training, really hard business to scale, easy to start, hard to scale. And he was like, "What do I think?" You know, what do you think the the opportunity is for me? I was like, "Honestly, dude, you could take your exact skill set because you've got 100 employees and you're trying to deliver an amazing experience, but with low skilled labor, you have to maintain culture. There's all of this stuff that you have to It's like if you took that same skill set and just applied it to a superior vehicle, you'd make more. Now, you might not want that and you might be happy with your existing business, which keep on just know that it's a harder it's a harder business. So, all that to say, I think wealth is a big bucket. Um, wealth related services are still crushing. Insurance risk is still going to exist in the future.
Speaker B: 嗯哼。
Original English
Speaker B: Mhm.
Speaker A: 所以,保险需求依然会存在。人们需要去分散风险,这正是保险的功能所在。抗衰老和保持美貌是一方面,另外任何不够酷、带有某种折价属性的东西,通常也是非常值得研究的。它有点像垃圾处理行业。就像没有人想去当一个……“那你是做什么的?”就像,“哦,我做垃圾处理的”,你懂吗,它就是……它没有那种同等的体面感。
Original English
Speaker A: So, there's going to need to be insurance. People are going to to to fractionalize risk, which is what insurance functionally does. The longevity looking nice is one and then anything that's not cool has like a discount applied to it is always something that's very interesting to look at. It's kind of like trash. Like no one wants to be like a so what do you do? It's like I I'm in trash you like it just it doesn't have the same gravitas
寻找被忽视的商业机会与财富分布的真相
Speaker A: 就像我是一名医生,但那个人可能是个亿万富翁,[笑声] 对吧?所以如果我这样看,哦,我,我,你知道,我做的是老年人的排泄物管理,比如,你知道,人类粪便处理。这就好比,总得有人去,你知道的,比如总得有人去解决这些问题,对吧?所以,这类企业就是那种——看看那些没人愿意关注的领域。去寻找那些人们在聚会上不愿意提及的事情。那里通常蕴藏着巨大的机会,如果那里显然有钱可赚的话,就像我提到的那些人,因为现在财富是如此集中在……我做了我今年最喜欢的一个视频。我,我做了这个数据拆解,因为这是我最喜欢的一个视频,我想它大概获得了30万次观看。但是,比如,[笑声] 但是我所做的非常有趣的事情是,我把美国的财富总量提取出来,并让它,让它代表100美元。100%的财富就是100美元。如果你看看这个,对吧,你画一个圆代表所有人,你知道,100个人分布在不同的百分位数上,对吧,在底部50%的人群中,只有大约2美元。
Original English
Speaker A: as I'm a doctor except that guy could be a billionaire, [laughter] right? And so if I look at like oh I I do you know I do waste management for old people like you know human fecal matter. It's like there someone's got to you know like someone's got to figure something out, right? And so those are the types of businesses where it's like look where no one wants to look. Look at look for things that people would not want to say at parties. There's usually big opportunities there if there's obviously money where I said owe people because right now it's so wealth is so concentrated on the I did my favorite video of the year. I I did this breakdown and because it was my favorite video I think it got like 300,000 views. But like [laughter] but what I did was really interesting is that I took wealth in the United States and I had a had it represent $100. 100% of wealth is $100. If you looked at it, right, and you had a circle for all, you know, 100 people at different percentiles, right, there's like $2 in the bottom 50th percentile.
Speaker B: 底部50%的人大约拥有200美元……
Original English
Speaker B: The bottom 50% of people has roughly $200
Speaker A: 占那100美元财富中的份额。
Original English
Speaker A: of the hundred in wealth.
Speaker B: 哇哦。
Original English
Speaker B: Wow.
Speaker A: 这太疯狂了。然后是你接下来的40%,我想那大概是27美元,差不多那样。然后是你接下来的9%,他们大约拥有36美元。然后最顶层的1%拥有31美元。希望这些数学计算是准确的,但差不多就在这个范围内。所以,当你看到这种财富分配,然后你会想,我应该服务于谁?许多刚刚起步的人处于这里(底层),而他们看到的唯一的人群也在这里。所以他们对世界的看法是不准确的。这就是为什么他们一直很穷,因为他们试图向其他同样没有钱的人推销,然后就理所当然地认为没有人有钱。
Original English
Speaker A: It's crazy. And then you've got your next 40 and I think that was like $27, something like that. Then you have your next 9% which has like $36. And then the top 1% has 31. Hopefully the math maths, but it's somewhere somewhere in the neighborhood. And so when you look at that division and then you're like, who should I serve? Many people who are starting out are here and the only people they see are here. And so their view of the world is not accurate. And this is why they stay broke because they try to sell to other people who have no money and then assume that no one has money.
从服务初创公司到服务可口可乐:向上游市场转移的经历
Speaker B: 我注意到的[哼鼻声]有趣的一点是,而且我认为任何经营过服务型企业的人都能产生共鸣。
Original English
Speaker B: The [snorts] interesting thing I noticed and I think anybody that's ran a service business will be able to relate.
Speaker A: 是的。
Original English
Speaker A: Yeah.
Speaker B: 那就是当我刚开始的时候,我是向那些有应用创意的初创公司创始人推销,他们的营销预算大约是10,000美元,而我要价也是10,000美元……
Original English
Speaker B: Is when I started out I was selling to startup founders who had an app idea whose marketing budget was approximately $10,000 and I was asking for $10,000
Speaker A: 每年。[笑声]
Original English
Speaker A: per year. [laughter]
Speaker B: 然后他们就会一直盯着我。他们会计算他们的应用获得的每一次下载量。慢慢地,我们设法向更高端的市场移动。而且不可思议的是,这说起来很疯狂,但从客户管理或客户账户管理的角度来看,与可口可乐打交道要比与那个带着他的约会应用创意的Dave打交道容易得多。可口可乐,他们可能会给你六位数的预算,嗯,他们会比那个把自己的抵押贷款都押在约会应用创意上的Dave要随意得多。[笑声] 但是向上游市场转移并不容易,因为为了获得与可口可乐面谈并向他们展示的机会,你必须通过某种方式赢得这个资格。
Original English
Speaker B: And they were watching me. They were counting every download they got on their apps. And slowly we managed to move up. And the remarkable thing is, this is a crazy thing to say, but it was easier from a client management or a client account management perspective to deal with Coca-Cola than it was Dave with his dating app idea. Coca-Cola, who would give you potentially six figures in budgets, um would would be a little bit more casual than Dave with his dating app idea where he'd put his mortgage on the line. [laughter] But it's not it's not easy to move up because to get that meeting with Coca-Cola to be able to present to them, you got to earn it somehow.
Speaker A: 所以,说起来总是很容易,但达到那个高度的现实是,他们,他们更多地考虑的是信誉、过往业绩。他们会,他们会与那些信誉极高、并且他们能看到其背后真实实力的人合作。
Original English
Speaker A: So, it's all well good saying it, but the reality of getting up there is they they think more about credibility, track record. They'll they'll work with people who are highly credible and who who they can see a reality behind.
Speaker B: 所以,开始向朋友和家人推销并没有错。但是,这个目标,再说一次,那是如果你的目标是通过企业赚更多的钱,那么你应该向高端市场移动。如果你看看,所以这是一件非常有趣的事情,是我注意到的。
Original English
Speaker B: And so, it's not there's nothing wrong with starting to sell the friends and family. But the the goal, again, that's if your goal is to make more money with the business should be to move up market. And if you look, so this is kind of interesting, something I've noticed.
定价作为服务价值与质量的强信号
Speaker A: 如果你看看一项服务的价格,这是专门针对服务型企业的,
Original English
Speaker A: If you look at the price of a service, and this is specifically for service businesses,
Speaker B: 服务的价格几乎与企业和企业主的高级程度有着一对一的关联……
Original English
Speaker B: the price of the service almost has a one to one correlation with how advanced the business and business owner are
Speaker A: 这仅仅是作为一种迫使功能,因为为了提高价格,就像一家做得好的服务型企业意味着你做了一份好工作。你的需求大于你的供应。所以当供需曲线交叉时你该怎么办?你就会提高价格。所以你继续这个循环。只要你继续提供比你收费更多的价值,你就会继续拥有更多的需求。然后你就会不断地提升。这就是为什么价格是衡量价值的一个如此强烈的信号。这也解释了为什么当你刚起步时,很难听进去我们说:“嘿,在你的价格标签上加个零。在你的价格标签上加两个零。”因为如果有人来找我,说:“嘿,我想以每月2,000美元的价格为你做所有的社交媒体管理。”我就会想,“老兄,你根本应付不了我。”
Original English
Speaker A: just as a forcing function because in order to go up in price, like a service business done well means you did a good job. You have more demand than you have supply. And so what do you do when supply and demand crisscross? You go up in price. And so you continue this loop. And as long as you continue to deliver more value than you're charging for, you continue to have more demand. And you just keep lading up. And this is why price is such a strong signal for value. Which why when you're starting out, it's hard to hear us say, "Hey, add a zero to your price tag. Add two zeros to your price tag." Because if someone comes to me and says, "Hey, I want to do all of your social media management for $2,000 a month." I'm like, "Dude, you can't even handle me."
Speaker B: 就像你可能,就像即使我答应了,你也做不到。算不过账来。你根本不可能做到。所以如果有人来找我,我可能愿意花费的最低金额是,我不知道,每月15,000美元请一个供应商。就像我真正可能接受的最低金额,而且那可能是一家规模较小的店,我知道创始人可能仍然全面参与其中。我对此没意见,因为我没意见,有些创始人比如很优秀,基本上我把他们看作是我以较低薪水聘请的兼职员工,那也没问题。说了这么多,就是想说你想要提高你的价格。一是因为你服务于更好的客户,二是因为你有更好的利润率。三是因为会有更少的麻烦,四是因为这是你在你所做的事情上有多优秀的信号。而且最优秀的企业和企业主会知道,哦,这是适合我的。你向他们发出信号,表明你想要走向市场,但你的市场价格很低。这里,嗯,有一种叫做范韦斯滕多普(Van Westendorp)价格敏感度分析法的东西。你可能听说过。它源自20世纪70年代。我在推出新产品时经常会使用这个。所以你会问四个问题。第一,在什么价格下,这个产品会昂贵到你甚至都不会考虑它?
Original English
Speaker B: Like you could like even if I said yes, you can't. it. The math doesn't math. There's no way you can do it. And so if someone comes to me like the minimum I'm probably going to be willing to spend is I don't know 15,000 a month for a vendor. Like the minimum I could really possibly and it' be probably a smaller shop and I know the founder is probably still integally involved. I'm fine with that cuz I'm okay with some founders like being good and basically me seeing them as a fractional employee that I'm paying less and that works fine. All that to say like you want to have your price go up. One because you serve better customers, two because you have better margins. Three because there'll be less headache and four because it's a signal of how good you are at what you do. And the best businesses and business owners will know, oh, this is for me. You signal to them that you like you want to go out market, but you have low market prices. There's um there's something called the Van Wesson door pricing analysis. You might have heard of it. It's from the 1970s. I do this most times when I launch a new offering. And so there's four questions you ask. Number one, at what price would this be so expensive that you wouldn't even consider it?
Speaker A: 嗯嗯。
Original English
Speaker A: Mhm.
范韦斯滕多普价格敏感度分析与市场细分定价
Speaker B: 第二,在什么价格下,这个产品会便宜到让人觉得它不可能有价值?它太便宜了。在什么价格下,它刚好处于边缘?你必须认真考虑一下,但你最终还是会买下它。然后,在什么价格下它会是一笔划算的买卖,一笔好交易?所以当你实际用散点图来表示这个时,以前我不得不手动完成这些。现在你实际上只需获取数据,把它直接放入人工智能中,然后说,“嘿,对这个运行一个范韦斯滕多普分析,这真是太神奇了。”所以你可以在六分钟内得到结果。嗯,然后你得到这些,如果在图表上有分散的点的话,图表上会有四个点。所以你得到了边际便宜的点,基本上就是低于这个点,绝大多数更多的人会认为它太便宜而不可信。
Original English
Speaker B: Number two, at what price would this be so cheap that it would be impossible that it would be able to be valuable? It it'd be too cheap. At what price would it be right at the edge? you'd have to really consider it, but you'd end up buying it. And then at what price would it be a bargain, a good deal? And so when you actually take a scatter plot to this, and now I have to I used to have to do these manually. Now you can literally just take the data and put it right into AI and say, "Hey, run a van western drug analysis on this, which is amazing." So you can get it in six minutes. Um, and so you get these there's four points on the graph if you have the scattered dots. And so you have the point of marginal cheapness which is basically beyond this point the majority more people will think it's too cheap to be believable.
Speaker A: 好的。而且高于某个价格它就太贵而不予考虑了。所以你能发现的是,你可以通过计算曲线下的面积,来看看如果我有一个摩擦更高的销售流程,在什么价格下我会赚最多的钱。
Original English
Speaker A: Okay. And above this price it's too expensive to be considerable. And so what you can find is you can do area under the curve to see at what price would I make the most money if I had a higher friction sales process.
Speaker B: 嗯嗯。[清嗓子]
Original English
Speaker B: Mhm. [clears throat]
Speaker A: 以及如果我只想让人们直接购买它会怎样。所以如果我想拥有一个自动化的销售流程,我的价格区间应该在哪里。所以在那里有一个范围,它会显示,“好的,就在这个点,你将获得最大的销售数量。”当然,你还得把利润率考虑进去,比如产品的毛利率。但你可以猜测到,就像这样,当你想推出一款洗发水时,他们就是这么做的。所以我们可以精准地给它定价。
Original English
Speaker A: And if I wanted people to simply purchase it. So if I wanted to have an automated sales process where my range is. And so there's a range in there where it says, "Okay, right here is the point where you'll make the most number of sales." Now, you'd have to factor in margin, like gross margins of the product. But you can guess like this is how when you want to launch a shampoo, this is how they do it. And so we can price it precisely.
Speaker B: 它是一个钟形曲线还是……
Original English
Speaker B: Is it a bell curve or is it
Speaker A: 哦,是的。
Original English
Speaker A: Oh, yeah.
Speaker B: 所以它就像一个……
Original English
Speaker B: So is it like a
Speaker A: 是的,但有时候很有趣的是,有时会出现双高斯分布……
Original English
Speaker A: Yeah, but sometimes it's so interestingly sometimes you have double gaussians that'll happen
Speaker B: 因为这是针对不同的客户群体。所以当我运行这些分析时,我会问那四个问题,但我也会要求提供客户统计数据。这样我就可以通过说,富有的客户是怎么想的,来进行细分?他们的定价曲线是什么样的?贫穷客户的定价曲线是什么样的?家庭服务的定价曲线是什么样的?……的定价曲线是什么样的?所以,然后你就可以在初始定价时做到非常非常准确。
Original English
Speaker B: because it's different customers. So when so when I run these, I ask those four questions, but I also ask for the customer stats. So then I can slice it by saying, what do the rich customers think? What's the pricing curve for them? What's the pricing curve for poor customers? What's the pricing curve for home services? What's the pricing curve for? And so then you can get really really accurate with initial pricing.
商业核心法则与企业需求受限的现状
Speaker A: 在你向世界提出的所有想法中,你发现对人们最具吸引力的那些核心观点或问题是什么?
Original English
Speaker A: Of all the ideas that you've put out into the world, what are the the sort of headline ideas or questions that you found to be most compelling to people?
Speaker B: 这本书里几乎所有的核心概念归根结底都是要弄清楚你想卖给谁,你想卖给他们什么,以及如何让他们购买。而我的大部分内容更多地集中在客户获取上,因为绝大多数的小型企业,比如说收入在100万到5000万之间的,
Original English
Speaker B: Almost all the core concepts in this book come down to figuring out who you want to sell, what you want to sell them, and how to get them to buy. And most of my content focuses more on acquisitions since the vast majority of small businesses, say 1 to 50 million,
Speaker A: 并非总是如此,嗯,但我敢说,这只是粗略的估计,走进我们大门的70%的企业都是受需求限制的。他们能够服务的客户远远多于他们目前拥有的。只有30%是受供应限制的。电话响个不停,但他们就是没有足够的能力。
Original English
Speaker A: not always, um, but I'd say 70% of businesses, this is rough estimates, that come through our doors are demand constraint. They could use more customers than they than they have. 30% are supply constrained. The phone's ringing, but they just don't have
一切问题皆是营销问题
Speaker A: ……没有足够的客户代表,没有足够的技术人员,不管是什么情况。所以,当把所有这些书结合起来看时,真正有趣的是,所有问题归根结底都是营销问题。我要让你相信这个观点。
Original English
enough account reps. They don't have enough technicians, whatever it is. And so, what's really interesting about this all of these books when taken in aggregate is that every problem is a marketing problem. And I'll and I'll sell you on this idea.
Speaker A: 所以,如果我们把一家企业看作,好,第一步活动是线索生成(lead gen),对吧。第二步是线索培育(nurture)。然后我们有销售(sales),呃,有入职培训(onboarding),接下来是留存(retention)和升级(ascension),对吧?也就是让他们继续付费,并让他们购买更多产品。
Original English
So, if we were to think about a business as okay, we've got lead gen, right, as activity number one. We've got nurture as number two. We've got sales, uh, we've got, uh, onboarding, and then we've got retention, ascension, right? Getting them to keep paying and getting them to buy more.
Speaker A: 这是面向客户的需求端,对吧?希望大家都在这一点上达成共识。那么,如果你的企业受限于供给端呢——
Original English
Now, this is the demand side for customers, right? Everyone hopefully everyone's kind of aligned with that. Now, if you're supply constrained,
Speaker B: 意思就是,你现有的客户数量超过了你的处理能力,很多人对你的东西感兴趣。假设你是一个单干的创业者,你会想:“我该怎么办?这里只有我一个人啊”,这就说明你受限于供给端。如果你有无限的处理能力,你就能赚更多的钱,对吧?那么,与此对等的情况是什么?在供给端,你有求职申请的生成,然后你有求职申请的培育。
Original English
which means which means that you uh have more customers than you can handle, more people are interested in your stuff. Let's say you're the solopreneur and you're like, "How do I like there's only one of me, what do I do?" like you're supply constrained. If you had unlimited view, you you could make more money, right? So, what's the equivalent version of this? On the supply side, you have application generation and then you have application nurture.
Speaker A: “求职申请的培育”是什么意思?
Original English
What does that mean, application nurture?
Speaker B: 基本上就是,我们在处理这些潜在人选的线索。没错,我们有这些申请者,我们需要给他们排期。我们需要帮他们预约面试。我们需要确保他们在这个过程中不会流失,你知道的,比如我们能多快把这些面试安排好,诸如此类,对吧?然后是面试本身,这就像是销售环节,对吧?接着是入职培训,就像你对待新员工那样。然后是留存。最后是升级,意味着他们在成长,在晋升,对吧?他们是不是在向上发展?这意味着你对待人的方式,跟你对待企业销售漏斗里的人是一样的。因此,如果你遇到了需求端的问题,但你知道怎么招人,那就用你招人的方法去获取更多的客户。如果你知道怎么获取客户,但不知道怎么招人,那就使用完全相同的流程。这意味着——
Original English
Basically, we're working these leads. Yeah, we have these applicants. We need to get them scheduled. We need to get them booked. We need to make sure that they're not getting lost in the process, you know, like how how quickly can we line these interviews up, all that, right? We have the interviews themselves, which is the sale, right? And then we have onboarding like you do for a new employee. And then you have retention. And then the ascension is they're grow they're going up, right? Are are they are they are they moving up? Which means that you just treat humans the way you treat humans in a pipeline in a business. And so if you have a demand problem, but you know how to get employees, then do the stuff that you get to get employees to get more customers. If you know how to get customers, but you don't know how to get employees, use the exact same process, which means
Speaker B: 是谁在为你那些广告、宣传活动和外拓临时员工撰写文案?好吧,或许应该有人去检查一下。顺便说一句,如果你还没有看过这些东西,而且你是一个规模稍微大一点的企业主,你绝对会被那些代表你的公司发送给别人的外拓信息吓到的。你会被你公司发布的招聘广告吓到的。你会想:“根本没人会回应这种东西。你怎么会觉得这能起作用?”
Original English
who's writing the copy for your your ads and your promotions and your outreach temps. Well, somebody probably should take a look at if you haven't looked at this, by the way, and you're a slightly bigger business owner, you will be horrified by the outbound messages that are getting sent on your behalf to people. You'll be horrified by the job postings that your company is putting. You're like, "No one would respond to this. How would you think this would work?"
面试如同销售,招聘如同营销
Speaker A: 太搞笑了。从培育的视角来看,这些线索并没有得到跟进处理。没有人在做回访。我们没有给他们提供任何材料来向他们推销我们公司,就像你对待潜在客户时应该做的那样。比如,我们为什么不提供案例研究?我们为什么没有一个视频销售信函(VSL)来完整讲述我们整个企业是做什么的?所以,每一个来到 acquisition.com 的人都会看一段我的 VSL,那是一个长达13分钟的视频,内容大概就是:我们的企业是这样运作的,这是我们的房地产部门,类似这样。它展示了一切,我拿出了证据,比如“这是约翰,约翰是一名员工,约翰很喜欢这里”,随便怎样。然后进入面试环节本身,这就好比,你有脚本吗?你有销售脚本,为什么不能有面试脚本?
Original English
Very funny. From a nurture perspective, the leads aren't getting worked. No one's following up. We're not giving them any materials to sell them on our just like you would with a prospect. Like, why don't we have case studies? Why don't we have a video sales letter that tells tells the whole business? So, every person who comes to acquisition.com watches a VSL for me and it's a 13-minute thing of just like here's how the business works and it's this is our real estate arm. This is like and it shows everything and like I'm giving proof and this is John and John's an employee and John loves it here, you know, whatever. And so then in the interview itself, it's like, do you have a script? Well, you have a sales script. Why would you not have an interview script?
Speaker B: 嗯。(清嗓子)
Original English
Mhm. [clears throat]
Speaker A: 预先准备好的问题。我们需要做角色扮演来练习吗?那是当然。这难道不跟销售一样重要,甚至更重要吗?招到一个 10 分满分的顶尖人才,带来的杠杆效应难道不比单单获取一个客户大得多吗?是的。在入职培训方面,我们到底有没有任何流程?我们有没有一个 30-60-90 天的计划,说明接下来 30天、60天、90 天会发生什么,对他们有什么要求,以及为了变得胜任,他们需要吸收什么信息?然后,一旦他们入职了,他们的职业发展路径是怎样的?他们是如何——比如,我最喜欢问的一个问题是,当我遇到一个我真的很喜欢的人时,嗯,我会说:“要怎样才能让你永远在这里工作?需要付出什么代价?只要告诉我需要什么条件。”我会说:“别客气,直接告诉我你需要什么条件。”然后我就能开始调动各种资源,想办法把这个人永远留下来。但如果我有一个非常喜欢的客户,同样的情况也会发生,我会问:“要怎样我们才能永远做你们的独家供应商?”嗯。
Original English
Pre-planned questions. Do we roleplay this? Well, we roleplay this. Isn't this just as important, if not more important? Is there more leverage on getting one 10 out of 10 talent person than just one customer? Yeah. On the onboarding, are we just do we have any process? Do we have 30 60 90 of what what's going to happen over the next 30 60 90 days and what is required for them and what information they need to consume so they can become proficient? And then once they are onboarded, what's their what's their career path look like? How do they like one of my favorite questions is when I have somebody I really like, um I say, "What would it take for you to work here forever? What would it take? Just tell me what it would take." I can say, "No, just tell me what it would take." And then I can start moving the pieces around to figure out how I can get this person to stay forever. But the same thing happens if I have a a customer that I like a lot like, "What would it take for us to be your your sole provider forever?" Mhm.
Speaker B: 特别是这个,因为我知道你有更多企业级业务经验,有时候可以说:“嘿,让我成为独家供应商吧。让我们签订独家协议。”
Original English
Especially this because I know you have more enterprise experience sometimes saying, "Hey, let me be the sole provider. Let's get let's go exclusive.
Speaker A: “让我们锁定一份三年的合同,如果我们锁定了,我会免费送你这些额外的东西。”
Original English
Let's lock in a three-year contract and I'll give you these other things for free if we lock it in."
Speaker B: 而且我永远不会和——
Original English
And I'll never work with
Speaker A: 对。和这三个竞争对手合作。是的。所以,商业中几乎所有的问题,都可以通过让更多人知道你的东西来解决,不管是让他们为你工作,还是向你购买。(清嗓子)
Original English
Yeah. these three competitors. Yeah. And so almost all problems in business can be solved by more people finding out about your stuff either to work for you or to buy from you, [clears throat]
用金钱奖励内部推荐的威力
Speaker B: 这也意味着,你可能对你的客户有持续的营销动作。但你觉得不应该对你的团队和员工有持续的营销。我们希望客户给我们推荐转介绍吗?是的。我们希望员工给我们推荐人选吗?我们有没有设立激励机制,让大家带来推荐?有一个很棒的故事。我朋友的朋友,经营着一家年收入大约 1000 万美元左右的企业。他和一个在同一领域、但已经走得远得多的人交谈。他所从事的业务有类似代理人的角色,大概就像是一家经纪公司。那位导师问他:“那么,你给你的代理人推荐其他代理人,提供了什么激励?”他说:“哦,你知道的,如果他们带进一个新的代理人,我会付给他们 500 美元。”导师问:“好吧,那你从一个高产的代理人身上每年能赚到多少毛利?”他回答是每年 25 万美元。一个高产的代理人,带来的毛利。导师说:“所以,你只愿意花 500 美元去赚 25 万美元?”导师又问:“那为了赚这 25 万美元,你愿意花多少钱?”他说:“这个嘛,我不知道,可能是 5 万美元吧。”导师说:“对啊,那为什么你不一开始就把推荐奖金设成 25000 美元呢?”于是,他把推荐奖金从 500 美元提高到了 25000 美元,然后他把公司的规模从 1000 万美元做到了 4 亿美元。
Original English
which also means that you probably have ongoing marketing to your customers. You think there shouldn't be ongoing marketing to your team and employees. Do we want our customers to give us referrals? Yeah. Do we want our employees to give us referrals? Do we have a incentive for people to bring referrals? There's a great story. A friend of a friend had a had a $10 millionish dollar a year business. He talked to somebody in the exact same space as him uh who was way further ahead. And he uh he was in business that had like agents uh that work from like kind of like a brokerage. And the mentor told him, "So, what's the incentive that you have for your agents to bring more agents?" He's like, "Oh, I you know, I pay him 500 bucks if they bring a new agent on." He was like, "Okay, what do you make on a productive agent per year in gross profit?" He was 250,000 a year. Productive agent, gross profit. He's like, "So, you're only willing to spend $500 to make 250,000?" He's like, "What would you spend for 250,000?" He was like, "I mean, I don't know, 50 grand." He's like, "Yeah, so why don't you make your incentive 25 to start?" So he took his incentive from $500 for referral to 25,000 and he took his company from 10 million to 400 million.
Speaker A: 是的,这太疯狂了。(笑声)我经常思考这个问题。即使在招聘方面,人们总说:“哦,猎头要花很多钱。”我的反应是:“去他妈的。”为了真正卓越的人才,这几乎——这绝对是一笔划算的买卖。这总是一笔极好的交易。回首过去,如果让我说现在的我和过去的我有什么不同,那就是我对人才的标准显著提高了,而且我对容忍平庸之人留在公司的容忍度变低了。我想,可能所有我曾经采访过的企业家都会说出完全一样的话。我记得有一位特定的企业家,他建立了一家估值千亿美元的公开上市企业。他说:“在20岁时,我认为招聘有关系。在30岁时,我认为它有点重要。到了40岁,我意识到这是唯一最重要的事情。”而且这是一个建立了一家千亿美元上市公司的家伙,我就觉得,很有趣,因为他们所有人都是这么说的。
Original English
Yeah, it's crazy. [laughter] I think about this a lot. Even with like recruiting, like people like, "Oh, head hunters cost a lot of money." I'm like, "Fucking hell." For really exceptional talent, it's almost it's always a deal. It's always a great deal. Going back in time, if I were to give the the like what has changed about uh me then versus me now is that my standards for talent are significantly higher and my tolerance for letting someone be mediocre and stay are lower. I think probably all the entrepreneurs I've ever interviewed would say that exact thing. I remember one particular entrepreneur who's built 100 billion dollar business publicly listed. He said, "At 20, I thought hiring mattered. At 30, I thought it was kind of important. At 40, I've realized it's the single most important thing." and this is a guy that's built hundred billion dollar publicly traded company and I was like but it's funny because that's what all of them say.
人,是你一生中最好与最坏的决定
Speaker B: 是的。但我认为这是一个更广泛的人际关系建议课题,那就是你一生中做出的最好和最坏的决定,都与“人”有关。我的意思是,我看着——我看着这里的这些东西,我会觉得,其实这对你来说也是适用的。
Original English
Yeah. But I this is a broader relationship advice lesson which is just the best and worst decisions you'll make in your life are people and I mean I look at I look at some of these things here and I go I mean it's true for you.
Speaker A: 是啊,我知道,对吧。
Original English
Yeah, I know right.
Speaker B: 这是你美丽妻子的照片。
Original English
This is a photo of your lovely wife.
Speaker A: 高光时刻。
Original English
Nugget Zone.
Speaker B: 你想想,如果你选了别的人,你人生的结局会产生多么大的偏差。
Original English
You think about the variance of your outcome if you had chosen someone else.
Speaker A: 我的确会思考这个问题。我确实想过。这可能是我做过的最正确的一项财务决策——那就是娶了伊拉(Ila)。因为,这绝对不是在影射我或是任何人的任何关系,你知道,人们做出的最优选择考量是不同的,我也不是说我当初是为了财务做的选择。我的意思是,但仅仅从那个角度来看,她就非常支持我,而且很多时候,她比我自己还要相信我。而且我认为,我想这就是任何人真正想要的,或者至少对于我来说,这是我所渴求的。最关键的是,即使赌注越来越大,这种支持也从未停止。我记得有一次,我正在合作的一家企业,我要去和他们的整个团队开会。当时我想,这是一个非常棘手的问题,而他们正请求我来帮忙解决……
Original English
I do think about that. I do think about that. It's probably the single best financial decision that I ever made was marrying Ila because and this is this is no shade to any any any relationship that exists of mine or anyone's you know people optimize for different things and I'm not saying I optimize for finances. I'm saying, but within that lens, she was just down and she believed in me a lot of times more than I believed in myself. And I think I think that's all anyone really wants or at least for me that I that I wanted was and the thing is is that hasn't stopped as the stakes have gotten higher. I remember there was this business that I was that I was working with and I was going to meet with the whole team and I was like this is like a really tough problem that they're asking me to help with
面对挑战时的自我怀疑与伴侣的绝对信任
Alex: ……我当时就觉得……然后她直接打断了我,她说,好在你就是最擅长做这件事的人,而且你能够给他们提供的帮助比任何人都多。说实话,不管这是不是真的,在那个当下,这确确实实就是我最需要听到的话。所以,我也经常对那些刚起步的创业者说,我并不是一个拥有完美……自我安全感的人。你明白我的意思吗?我不会说这是所谓的“冒名顶替综合征”,因为事实并非如此。但我确实会有自我怀疑,比如我不知道自己到底能不能解决这个问题。我的意思是,我希望我能解决,我也在不断为此努力,但我确实不知道结果会怎样。而且,随着问题变得越来越复杂、风险变得越来越高,你会觉得这越来越难,如果我失败了,代价也会更大。嗯,虽然承受的压力感觉是一样的。我想说,唯一的区别在于,我们现在有更多的资源去应对这些问题了。
Original English
Alex: ... and I was like and she just like cut me off and she's like good thing you're the best at it and that you're going to give them more help than anyone else could and it's just like whether that's true or not it was exactly what I needed to hear in that moment. And so I I also say this to people who are starting out is just like I I do not have perfect um self-security. You know what I mean? Like I wouldn't say it's imposter syndrome cuz that's not true. But like I have doubts of like I don't know if I'm going to be able to solve this. I mean I hope I am and I keep working on it but like I don't know and as the the problems become more complex and have higher stakes, it's like this is harder and will cost more if I fail. Um the pressure feels the same. I would say the only difference is that we have more resources to to to handle them.
Interviewer: 嗯哼。
Original English
Interviewer: Mhm.
Alex: 所以在很大程度上,当你刚起步时,这就有点像你赤手空拳在跟一头熊搏斗;但是当你走到更后面的阶段,这就好比你试图去屠龙,不过至少此时你已经拥有一支军队了。
Original English
Alex: And so in a lot of ways, when you're starting out, it's kind of like fighting a bear with your bare hands, but when you're further down, it's like trying to slay a dragon, but at least you have an army.
Interviewer: 嗯哼。
Original English
Interviewer: Mhm.
Alex: 而且(清嗓子),所以现在的敌人变得更强大了,但你手里的资源也同样变多了。从某些方面来说,后期的阶段其实比你刚起步时还要容易一些。但是,你只有通过经历那些早期没有任何资源的阶段,才能赢得面对这些更强大敌人的资格。因为在这个过程中,你学会了坚毅,学会了如何不屈不挠地拼搏。我认为,这就好比是一种必经的成年礼,而 Leila 愿意毫无保留地全情投入。我想说的是,在风投圈有一种“赌骑师”的说法,意思是你要把赌注押在骑师身上,而不是那匹马上。当她刚认识我的时候,你懂的,我手里只有那么几家健身房,我当时根本不是现在的“Alex Hormozi”,不是大家现在看到的这个样子。我当时只是一个健身房老板,才 26 岁,我工作非常努力。而她的态度就是,我不知道我们未来会走到哪里,但我知道 Alex 一定会为了达到目标而不懈努力,她就是始终如此坚定地相信我。所以我觉得,如果你和一个人结了婚,这个人要么会增加你实现目标的可能性,要么会降低这个可能性,而你只需要决定这件事对你来说到底重不重要。
Original English
Alex: And [clears throat] so the foe is bigger, but your resources are bigger, too. And in some ways, it's almost easier later than it is when you start. But you only earn the right to face those foes by going through the earlier stages when you didn't have the resources because you learn the grit, you learn the scrappiness. And I think that like it's a it's a right of passage and Ila was willing to go allin and I would say that like if anything kind of like a jockey bet u for VCs like you bet on the horse not the jock or sorry the jockey not the horse. when she saw me, I had, you know, a handful of gyms and it wasn't like I'm Alex Herozi the, you know, whatever I am now. I was just a gym owner and I was 26 and I worked really hard and she was like, I don't know where we're going to go, but I know Alex is going to work tirelessly to get there and she just always believed. And I think that if like I think the person that you were married is either going to increase the likelihood that you hit your goals or decrease and you just need to decide whether that's important to you
伴侣在事业成功背后的关键作用
Interviewer: 假如你现在是单身呢?
Original English
Interviewer: if you were single.
Alex: 嗯。
Original English
Alex: Yeah.
Interviewer: 你觉得自己还能取得现在这样的成功吗?
Original English
Interviewer: Do you think you would be as successful as you are now?
Alex: 我不可能像现在这么成功,因为第一,我有很多时刻会觉得……我并没有在与焦虑作斗争,我是在与冷漠作斗争。嗯,就是那种无所谓的态度。我甚至会想,我干嘛还要费力做这些?我们已经有足够的钱了。谁在乎呢?在很多方面,Leila 的梦想比我的还要大。嗯,我(清嗓子)一直在财务方面有很大的目标,但在达到某个特定阶段后……我觉得我大概是在去年达到了这种状态,这很奇怪,因为大家总是会问,到底赚多少才算够?这其实有点像健身。嗯,我曾经练到了快 250 磅,而且体脂很低,当时我就觉得,这已经远远足够了。我打算减一减体重。(笑)所以,在健身、练肌肉或者类似的事情上,我有着比大多数人更远大的目标。嗯,在赚钱方面,我也曾有过比大多数人更远大的目标,但是当我真的达到那个数字时,我就会觉得,我觉得这对我来说已经足够了。但 Leila 却觉得,对她来说,这从来都不是为了钱。从来都不是。我认为这就是为什么我们俩的互动模式能运作得这么好的原因。但她总是比任何事情都更在乎团队。她会说,当她和我相遇时,她的梦想就是建立一个人们真正热爱来工作的地方。如果你能做到这一点,并且背后有一个良好的商业模式作支撑,把市场营销、销售、定价以及其他所有这些事情都做好,最后你自然而然就会赚到很多钱。
Original English
Alex: I wouldn't be as successful because number one, there have been plenty of moments cuz I don't struggle with anxiety. I struggle with apathy. Um not caring. Why do I even bother doing this? We already have enough money. Who cares? Ila in a lot of ways has bigger dreams than I do. Um I have [clears throat] always had big goals for finances, but at a certain point um and I think I hit this kind of like last year for me, which is weird because I always like people always like when is enough enough? And it's kind of like working out. Um I got to a point where I was like almost 250 and lean and I was like this is more than enough. I I'm going to come back down. [laughter] And so I've had bigger goals than most people for my fitness or muscles or whatever. Um, I've had bigger goals than most people for money, but I also was like at that point when I hit it, I was like, I think this is enough for me. And Leila was like, it was never about the money for me. It never was. And I think that's why our dynamic worked really well. But she's always cared about the team um, more than anything. And she's like, I her dream when she and I met was to build a place that people love to come to work. And if you do that and it also has a good business model behind it, marketing and sales and pricing and all this other stuff, it's like you end up making a lot of money.
Alex: 但如果不是因为 Leila,我可能早就松开油门,不再那么拼了。我觉得我在公司运营方面会面临更多的困难。因为 Leila 永远无法得到她应得的全部赞誉。但 Leila 是一个极其纯粹的运营者。她是一个不可思议的领导者,如果不是因为她,我可能根本无法招募到或是留住那些优秀的人才。我觉得,如果我们在生意上“离婚”了,我想绝大多数的人都会……(笑)
Original English
Alex: But I would have probably taken my foot off the gas earlier if it hadn't been for Ila. I think I would have struggled more operationally. Uh because Ila is Ila will never get the credit that she deserves. Um but Ila is Ila is the is the pure is a pure operator. like unbelievable leader that talent that I probably wouldn't have been able to either get or keep stay because of her. Like I think that if there was like a a divorce in the business, I think the vast majority of people would [laughter]
Interviewer: 我是认真的。其实我很清楚,我有很好的自我认知,人们知道我擅长什么。
Original English
Interviewer: I'm serious. Like I I know I like self-awareness. I people know what I'm good at
Alex: 而且我也知道人们其实是忠诚于 Leila 的。
Original English
Alex: and I know people are loyal to Ila
Interviewer: 因为她总是能在大家需要的时候出现。
Original English
Interviewer: because she's just there for people.
Alex: 嗯,所以正是因为这些原因,我认为如果没有她,我肯定不会一直保持那么高的拼劲。嗯,我觉得如果没有她,我绝对没有能力去运营我们现在这么庞大且复杂的业务。而且,在我动力必然出现低谷的那些时候,正是她在某种程度上支撑着我继续前行。
Original English
Alex: Um, and so for those reasons, I don't think I would have I don't think I would have kept my foot on the gas. Um, I don't think I would have been able to operate nearly as complex of a business as we currently have. And on the inevitable like troughs of my motivation, she was the one who kind of carried me.
如何权衡商业成功与个人幸福
Interviewer: 现在有很多听众在听我们的节目,他们可能是和伴侣一起听的,也可能是一个人听的,他们可能心里在想,你知道吗,我的伴侣并不怎么支持我。我甚至敢说,有些听众现在心里想的是,他们的伴侣实际上是在反对……
Original English
Interviewer: A lot of people be listening now and they might be listening with their partner, maybe they're listening alone, and they're thinking, you know, my partner isn't all that supportive of me. And dare I say, some people will be listening now and think their partner is actually against
Alex: 是的。
Original English
Alex: Yeah.
Interviewer: ……反对他们的事业野心。你想对这些人说些什么呢?
Original English
Interviewer: their ambition. What do you say to those people?
Alex: 弄清楚你到底想要什么。说实话,我们必须做出取舍。你要如何……你知道吗?这其实很棘手,因为这些人里可能有人会说:“行吧,受够了。我要甩了她(或者他)。”然后他们花两三年的时间去追求事业,他们获得了成功,但他们却孤独得要命。然后他们回过头来看,不禁会说:“你知道吗?当初驱使我这么去做的,其实是我内心的不安全感和羞耻感。但现在……我现在住进了豪宅,却孤身一人。我本应该珍惜的……她其实是个好女孩,他其实是个好男人。”
Original English
Alex: Figure out what you want. Like, we have to make trades. How do you Do you know what? It's tricky because some of those people might say, "Right, it. I'm going to dump her or him." And then they pursue the business for 2, three years. They become successful and they're lonely as hell and they look back and go, "Do you know what? That was actually my insecurity and my shame that drove me to do this. But I've I've now I've got the mansion and I'm here alone. I should have she was a good girl. He was a good guy."
Alex: 我刚才说的这些,仅仅是站在“如何调整外部条件以实现商业成果最大化”的角度。这就是我刚才谈论这个话题的出发点。但如果从实现主观幸福感和个人快乐最大化的角度来看呢?嗯,这些考量因素是完全不同的。所以,我觉得 Arthur Brooks 举过一个非常棒的视觉化例子,我特别喜欢,你可以想象两个场景。第一个场景是,你开着你的崭新法拉利,去了一家米其林三星餐厅。嗯,你坐在角落里的绝佳位置,独自吃着世界上最顶级的美食,看着窗外的风景;而第二个场景是,你和五个最好的朋友一起挤进你那辆破旧的,比如凯美瑞里面,然后去吃丹尼餐厅(Denny's)。你觉得你更享受哪一个场景?答案显而易见,显然是第二个场景更让人享受,但我们却总是把自己的生活过成了第一个场景的样子。
Original English
Alex: I speak only from the pers perspective of how do you align the conditions to maximize the the business outcome. That's where I come from in terms of how I'm speaking about this in terms of maximizing subjective well-being and your happiness. Um those factors are completely different. And so I think Arthur Brooks has this just this amazing visual example that I love, which is imagine two scenarios. One of them is that you drive your brand new Ferrari to a three-star Michelin restaurant. Um, and you have the corner corner booth eating the best food in the world looking out of view alone or piling into your beat up, you know, Camry, uh, going to a Denny's with your five best friends. Which one is the one you think you're going to enjoy more? It's obvious. It's obvious it's the second one, but we live our life like the first.
Alex: 所以我认为,说到底这还是取决于你想要什么。如果你觉得,这个女孩、这个男人或者不管是谁,能够在很多方面让你感到满足,那你就必须明白,你永远找不到完美的人,因为你自己也不是完美的。所以,问题就在于,在考察这个人的各项特质时,我愿意在哪些方面做出妥协和让步?我是否愿意接受这样一个伴侣:他/她可能对我的事业不是最支持的,但也许他/她非常支持我的主观幸福感?也许他/她非常支持我的业余爱好,也许他/她支持我的精神探索之旅,不管是什么。他们可能只是在不同的方面给予了你支持。所以,再说一次,关键在于你想要什么?我觉得人们……我曾经的第一任老板,或者说是上一任老板,她对我讲过一句话,让我至今记忆犹新。她说,弄清楚你想要什么是完成了 99% 的工作。她说最简单的部分其实是去得到它。我后来想了很久,因为我当时觉得,不对啊,去获得它才是最难的。但实际上,不,问题的核心在于你到底挖了多少层深,去真正搞清楚你内心到底想要什么?我觉得这正是因为,当你真正清楚自己想要什么的时候,接下来你只需要调动全世界去帮你实现它就行了。
Original English
Alex: And so I think if again it comes down to what you want. If you're like this girl, guy, whatever like satisfies so many things, like you will not find the perfect person cuz you're not perfect. And so it's just what on the stats of this person am I willing to make trades on? Am I willing to have somebody who's maybe not the most supportive of my career, but maybe they're supportive of my subjective wellbeing? Maybe they're supportive of my of my extracurriculars, maybe they're supportive of my spiritual journey, whatever. They might just be supportive in different ways. And so again, it's what do you want? And I think people I had a my my first boss um or last boss rather said this thing to me and it's really stuck with me. She said, uh figuring out what you want is 99% of the work. She said the easy part is getting it. And I thought about that a lot because I was like, no, the hard part is getting it. And it's like, no, it's like it's how many layers deep did you figure out what you really want? And I think that's because when you when you really know what you want, then it's then you just align the world to go get it.
Interviewer: 要搞清楚自己到底想要什么确实很难。
Original English
Interviewer: It's very hard to know what you want.
Alex: 是的。
Original English
Alex: Yeah.
Interviewer: 因为生活中充满了各种短期的诱惑。外界充斥着太多的噪音。比如 Instagram 会不断地暗示你,你想要这个。
Original English
Interviewer: Because there's all these near-term temptations. There's this external noise. There's Instagram telling you that you want this.
Alex: 是啊。还会对你说,不对,你需要这个。没错。所以,能够屏蔽掉所有的这些噪音,然后从中捕捉到一些真实的信号,这也呼应了你刚才说的观点:关于牺牲掉你本可以拥有的一切,你知道的,无论是 2 个、3 个、4 个还是 5 个选项,我们总是妄图想要得到所有选项带来的好处,却不愿意承受任何一条路所带来的代价。所以,我只是觉得……这也是为什么我依然坚信,做决定——虽然这是有史以来最不性感的话题,但它依然是最重要的——做决定是你在生活中能做的杠杆率最高的事情,就是要做出好的决定。
Original English
Alex: Yeah. No, you need this. Yeah. So being able to drown out all of that noise and get to some kind of signal and also to your point about sacrificing everything you could have had, you know, 2 3 4 5 we want the upsides of all paths without the cost of each. And so it I just this is the why I still believe that decision-m which is this the least sexy topic of all time but still the most important decision-m is the highest leverage thing that you can do in life making good decisions.
Interviewer: 那么有没有……我的意思是,我们已经讨论过各种框架了。有没有……
Original English
Interviewer: And is there I mean we've talked about frameworks. Is
决策框架与“我们想要什么”
Speaker A: 关于我们这里正在谈论的内容,是否有一个框架可以用来做出更好的决策呢?
Original English
Speaker A: making a better decision as it relates to what we're talking about here?
Alex: 我认为这其实是在回答第一部分的问题,那就是:我到底想要发生什么?
Original English
Alex: I think it's answering the first part which is what do I want to have happen?
Speaker A: “我到底想要发生什么?”是的,嗯……即使是这个问题,你知道,我在这里可能是在凭经验说话了。因为当我在,大概20岁的时候——是20岁还是19岁来着?我的一位朋友,或者说我的一位导师,给了我一本日记本。我还记得我在第一页写下了我想要的东西,而我当时写的是……
Original English
Speaker A: What do I want to have happen? Yeah, that's um even that that's you know I'm probably speaking from experience here because when I was what 20 years old was it 20 or 19 I Mark no friend of mine mentor of mine gave me this diary and I remember the first page I wrote in it what I wanted and what I wrote
Alex: 写的是“在25岁之前,拥有一辆路虎揽胜运动版(Range Rover Sport)作为我的第一辆车,赚到一百万美元,练出六块腹肌,还要有个女朋友”……我会把照片放出来的,屏幕上会有它的照片。事实上,我还真的在24岁的时候,坐在我的路虎揽胜里拍了一张照片,就像是一个……嗯,但这真的是我当初应该写下的东西吗?嗯,我想那可能确实是你当时想要的。
Original English
Alex: was before the age of 25 Range Rover Sport to be my first car million dollar six-pack girlfriend I'll throw up there's picture of it on the screen and I actually took a photo of it in my Range Rover at 24 years old as like a um but did was that actually what I should have written Well, I think it's probably what you wanted
Speaker A: 然后你更新了你的欲望,因为你已经得到了它。
Original English
Speaker A: and then you updated your wants because you got it
Alex: 然后你发现你想要的是其他不同的东西。
Original English
Alex: and then you found out that you wanted different things.
Speaker A: 没错。
Original English
Speaker A: Sure.
Alex: 幸运的是,我当时的时间跨度相当短,所以我可以在三四年的时间里弄清楚,而且没有任何实质性的……没有任何损害,意识到那并不是正确应该写下来的东西。但有些人把他们的生活导向了比如“我需要成为一个,比如说,亿万富翁”……
Original English
Alex: Fortunately there my time horizon was quite small so I could figure out in three or four years without any without any like damage that that was not the right thing to write down. But some people orientate their lives to like I need to become a let's say billionaire
Speaker A: 并且,借用你的一个词来说,沿途的“牺牲”就是家人、朋友、心理健康以及身体健康。然后当你达到那个目标时,你会惊呼:天哪,我无法让时光倒流。我无法重建那些人际关系。我现在没法打电话给我的妈妈了。她不再接电话了,或者她已经不在人世了。
Original English
Speaker A: and the sacrifice to use one of your words along the way is family, friends, mental health, health. And then you get there and you gosh, I can't turn back time. I can't rebuild relationships. I can't call my mom now. She doesn't answer or she's gone.
Alex: 所以这就是为什么我总是在“你想要什么”这个问题上停顿下来。因为我认为,正如你所说,我们实际上在认清自己方面做得非常糟糕。而且我不知道有什么比这更好的认知方式……
Original English
Alex: So that's kind of why I always pause on this question of what do you want? Cuz I think we're actually like, as you say, like terrible at knowing. And I don't know a better way of knowing
Speaker A: 除了亲自去尝试,除了去决定你是否真的想要它。
Original English
Speaker A: than getting in than deciding whether you want it or not.
Alex: 我认为,嗯……关于欲望,最有趣的事情之一就是,我们永远只想要我们没有的东西。
Original English
Alex: I think um one of the one of the interesting things with wanting is that we only want what we don't have.
Speaker A: 嗯哼。
Original English
Speaker A: Mhm.
Alex: 你知道的,[清嗓子] 呃,没有孩子的人想要孩子。有孩子的人会怀念他们没有孩子时的时光。单身的人想结婚。结了婚的人,你知道,又会追忆他们单身的日子。但我认为这是人类的本性,那就是我们只记住好的,而不记坏的。所以那是一种行为习惯。那不是一种……所以,就像当你喝醉了,然后第二天宿醉时,你会说:“我再也不喝酒了。”然后七天后你又喝了,原因就是惩罚的记忆会消退,而奖励的感觉会留下。这就是为什么你又回去找前女友,并且你依然渴望着她们。尽管当你和她复合时,你会觉得:“哦天哪,我早听说她疯了。我[笑声]当时在想什么啊?”对吧?但这是因为我们只记住了好的东西,了解到这一点是件好事,我认为这也是进化的结果。因为就像是你只记得你在那里采到了浆果,但你却不记得为此付出的代价(牺牲)。就像这一切在某种程度上是一样的,比如怀孕,这对许多女性来说是一段可怕的经历。不是所有人,但对许多女性来说是的。这是一段可怕的经历。
Original English
Alex: You know, [clears throat] uh people who don't have kids want to have kids. People who have kids remember the times they didn't have kids. People who were single want to get married. People who are married, you know, reminisce about the times they get single. But I see that as inherently human, which is that we only remember good and not bad. And that's a beh So that's a behavior thing. That's not a So like the reason that when you get drunk and then you're hung over the next day and you say, "I'm never going to drink again." And then seven days later you drink again is because punishment fades. Reward sticks. Which is why you go back to the old girlfriend and you still long for them. Even though when you get back, you're like, "Oh my god, I heard she was crazy. What [laughter] was I thinking?" Right? But it's because we only remember the good, which is good to know and I think evolutionary because it's like you remember you got berries there, but you don't remember the sacrifice. Like all to the same degree from like pregnancy, horrible experience for many women. Not all, but many women. and it's a horrible experience.
Speaker A: 但是当你在最后得到了作为奖励的这个婴儿时,之前的那些痛苦就像是随风消散了一样,然后你就会想:你知道吗,我还想再要一个孩子。[笑声]
Original English
Speaker A: But then you get this reward at the end which is this baby and then that just like fades away and then you're like you know what I want another baby. [laughter]
育儿的期待与恐惧
Speaker A: 说到婴儿,Alex。
Original English
Speaker A: Speaking of babies, Alex.
Alex: 没错。
Original English
Alex: Yeah,
Speaker A: 看看吧,你给了我一个很好的切入点。
Original English
Speaker A: there you go. You gave me a jump off point.
Alex: Leila 怀孕了。
Original English
Alex: Leila's pregnant.
Speaker A: 是的。
Original English
Speaker A: Yeah.
Alex: 还有多久宝宝出生?
Original English
Alex: How how long till the baby arrives?
Speaker A: 还有四个月。
Original English
Speaker A: Four months.
Alex: 四个月。
Original English
Alex: Four months.
Speaker A: 没错,真令人兴奋。
Original English
Speaker A: Yeah. Exciting.
Alex: 现在的感受是怎样的?我能看出来,[笑声]你的脸上混合着各种复杂的情绪。
Original English
Alex: What are all the feelings? I can see some [laughter] a mixture of feelings on your face.
Speaker A: 嗯,我非常兴奋,你知道的。呃,我很兴奋。不过,我也得说其中夹杂着一些恐惧,主要是因为我想要做好这份工作,你知道的,作为一个父亲。嗯……
Original English
Speaker A: Um I'm stoked, you know. Uh I'm stoked. Uh, I'd say I have elements of fear mostly that I I want to do a good job, you know, being a father. Um,
Alex: 我能看出来,Alex,你感到害怕。
Original English
Alex: I can see, Alex, that you're scared.
Speaker A: 我能看出来,因为我很清楚……在过去的不知道多少年里,我大概坐在这里聊了有 10 个小时。我可以告诉你我一直在努力挣扎的核心问题是什么,那就是:我该如何定义一个好父母?
Original English
Speaker A: I can tell because I know you're I've sat here probably for 10 hours over the last I don't know how many years. I'll tell you what the issue that I've been struggling the most with which is how do I define a good parent
Alex: 并且我该如何定义一个好孩子,或者说一个成功的孩子?这就又回到了人生的意义这类问题上,这也是我认为它如此困难的原因。但我们就拿做父母这一点来说,如果我们把“好父母”定义为让孩子有一个“成功的结果”,那么,在哪些领域成功呢?
Original English
Alex: and how do I define a good child or a successful child which then just gets into sort of a meaning of life question which is why I think it's so difficult but like I'll take the parent one for example if if we define a good parent as a successful outcome for a child one in what domains
Speaker A: 对吧,如果是一个孤独悲伤的亿万富翁,这算是一个成功的结果吗?我不知道。嗯,但我们先假设是世俗眼光中的那种成功版本,我就不一一列举了。有多少拥有这般成功的人,他们的童年其实是很糟糕的?
Original English
Speaker A: right is it a billionaire who's lonely and sad is that had a successful outcome. I don't know. Um, but let's just assume the world's version of success, and I won't enumerate it. How many people who have all that success had bad childhoods?
Alex: 嗯哼。
Original English
Alex: Mhm.
Speaker A: 那么,我们现在能说他们的父母是好父母吗?
Original English
Speaker A: Do we now call their parents good parents?
Alex: 我能……我能提出一个假设吗?我也没有孩子,但是,如果你把这两个问题都抛开,会发生什么?
Original English
Alex: Can I can I posit something? And I've not I've not had kids either, but what would happen if you removed both questions?
Speaker A: 哦,就像是顺其自然那样?嗯,我……我会说这对我来说非常有挑战,我几乎想说这对我来说是不可能的,[笑声]因为对控制的渴望。你会希望能够掌控你的结果。
Original English
Speaker A: Oh, just like I'll just take it as it is. Well, I I'll say it's very I it would I I almost want to say it's impossible for me [laughter] because of control. you like to be able to control your outcome.
Alex: 我想知道我在做什么。我想知道未来的方向……所以我会问自己,我到底想要发生什么,这样我就能调整我生活中的一切去努力让它发生。因此,即使是像“什么才是一个成功的孩子”这样的问题,它指的是一个快乐的孩子吗?
Original English
Alex: I want to know what I'm doing. I want to know where like I want I ask what do I want to have happen so that I can align all of my life to try and make that happen. And so if it's like and even even the question of like what is a successful child is is it a child who's happy?
Speaker A: 嗯哼。
Original English
Speaker A: Mhm.
Alex: 许多人会说我只希望我的孩子快乐,这很好。[清嗓子]
Original English
Alex: Many people would say I just want my kid to be happy and that's fine. [clears throat]
Speaker A: 还是说,我的孩子要对社会产生最大的影响?不同的成长环境会带来不同的结果……[清嗓子]
Original English
Speaker A: Is it my child is the maximum makes the maximum impact on society? different upbringing [clears throat]
Alex: 就像我们一开始所做的那些权衡,我可能无法拥有一个两者兼备的孩子,或者至少是我能引导的程度有限。
Original English
Alex: and like the trades that we make at the beginning, I probably won't be able to have a kid who has both or at least the degree to which I can steer.
输入与输出的哲学
Speaker A: 所以,我还有,嗯,三个其他的兄弟姐妹。我是四个孩子里最小的。
Original English
Speaker A: So, I have um three other siblings. I'm the youngest of four.
Alex: 是的。
Original English
Alex: Yeah.
Speaker A: 有人理论上可以说我父母这个因素是恒定的。成长环境在一定程度上也是恒定的。当然也会有微小的变化。
Original English
Speaker A: And one could theoretically say my parents were were a constant. The environment to some degree was a constant. There were slight changes.
Alex: 我们四个。
Original English
Alex: Us four.
Speaker A: 你看看,有我这个最小的,是个疯狂的、像是企业家的家伙,没上过大学,吧啦吧啦吧啦。还有 Jason,在学校里是个超级天才,重写了教科书让他们变得更聪明、更高效,现在在我的企业里工作,上了报纸头版。然后是 Kevin,比我们所有人都聪明,是那种学者级别的天才。他年轻的时候曾对我说,如果给他四周的时间,他能流利地学会任何一门语言,他曾经是游戏 Runescape 中的世界第一。人们会在线观看他玩游戏,他是个超级天才,嗯,后来决定他不想要进入工作世界。然后是我姐姐,你知道,我认为她获得了律师资格,嗯,然后她在酒店管理以及类似领域工作。我们所有人,都截然不同。我的父母是一个恒定因素,环境是一个恒定因素。我说了这么多,其实是想说,也许这就像我们在商业中所做的跑实验一样。[笑声] 也许,你知道,正如杰夫·贝索斯(Jeff Bezos)经常谈论的那样,我们的任务是远离“输出”的业务……
Original English
Speaker A: You've got this me the youngest, this crazy like entrepreneur, didn't go to university, blah blah blah. Got Jason, super genius at school, rewrote the textbooks to make them smart, smarter, works in this business, now my business, mathly, rewrote the like on the front of the newspapers. Kevin, smarter than all of us, savant level genius. Could said to me when he was younger that he could learn any language in four four weeks fluently if you gave number one in the world in Runescape at one point. People would watch him online play super genius um decided he doesn't want to go into world of work. And then my sister who you know I think she qualified as a lawyer um and she's worked in hospitality and stuff. All of us extremely different. My parents were a constant environment was a con constant. I say all this to say that maybe just like running experiments as we do in business. [laughter] Maybe like the job and you know Jeff Bezos talks a lot about this is to like stay out of the business of the output
Alex: 然后纯粹专注于“输入”,因为你知道的,你刚才提到的一些问题比如:我希望他们取得什么成就?他们快乐吗?这些全都是输出。
Original English
Alex: and focus purely on the input because you you know some of the questions you were saying there were like what do I want them to accomplish? Are they happy? These are all outputs.
Speaker A: 不,那是肯定的。嗯,你无法控制。我注意到的另一件事是,当我在采访企业高管时,我总是会问他们:“跟我说说你的孩子们吧。”
Original English
Speaker A: No for sure. Um, you can't. The other thing that I notice when I interview executives, I always ask them, "Tell me about your kids."
Alex: 然后他们就会跟我聊他们的孩子。接着我就会问:“他们之中有谁是一样的吗?”我总是问同样的问题,而他们的回答都是:“不。”
Original English
Alex: And they tell me about the kids. And I go, "Are any of them the same?" I always ask the same question and they go, "No."
Speaker A: 我们有这么一个总是在屋里上蹿下跳停不下来的孩子。还有一个是个共情能力极强、超级害羞的孩子。
Original English
Speaker A: We've got this one who won't stop bouncing off the walls. This one that's an empath and is like super shy.
Alex: 你做了什么不同的事吗?没有。[笑声]所以,你看,我认为,如果你过度干涉“输出”的结果,你几乎可以肯定会未能达到预期,并且会感到失望。
Original English
Alex: Did you do anything different? No. [laughter] So, like, you know, I think you you'll almost probably be guaranteed to miss expectations and be let down if you get involved in the output.
Speaker A: 是的。所以,很显然这里有先天(nature)与后天(nurture)的因素,孩子们会对不同的事物有先天的基因倾向。所以我们假设那占了一半,然后另一半是后天培养或者说环境。然而,这仍然不是我能100%控制的事情,因为你们兄弟姐妹之间确实有着不同的环境。你们在不同的年级成长,和不同的人交谈,遇到不同的老师,去了不同的大学,就像你的哥哥姐姐们那样。
Original English
Speaker A: Yeah. So, obviously there's nature nurture, there's kids who are going to have genetic predispositions for different things. So let's say that's half and then the other half is the nurture or environment. Now that is still something that I'm not going to be able to control 100% anyways because you guys did have different environments. You grew up in different grades talking to different people, having different teachers, went to different universities, like the older siblings.
Alex: 没错。是的。所有的这些都是……都是变量。所以从某种方式上来说,这里有一点你无法掌控的混乱局面。但是如果……如果我们摒弃所有的控制,那还有什么意义呢?所以我还是……我还是会回到那种心态,就是:好吧,我要努力去控制那些我能控制的事情。
Original English
Alex: Yeah. There's Yeah. All of those are are variables. And so in some way it's a bit of chaos of you can't you can't control. But if we if we eliminate all control then what's the point? And so I I still come I come back to the like well I'm going to try and control the controllables.
Speaker A: 是的,比如输入。
Original English
Speaker A: Yeah. inputs
Alex: 没错,但如果我有……如果我这样想,所以这就好像是,我……
Original English
Alex: and right but if I have if I'm so it's like I
目标与投入的博弈
Alex: 我需要知道我要去哪儿,也就是产出,以便掌控我的方向,但我日常关注的是我需要换挡,需要开车,需要给车加油。仅仅关注产出并不能让我们更快到达目的地,但我必须知道我的目的地。所以这又是我现在正在纠结的事情。说实话,我想不明白,而孩子随时都会到来[笑声]。他可不会等我想明白这一切,而且我很确信,也许有一天他看到这个播客时会说:“天哪,爸爸。真是的。”嗯,
Original English
Alex: need to know where I'm going the output in order to direct my car but what I'm focusing on a day-to-day is I need to shift gears I need to drive the car I need to fill it up with gas me focusing output is not going to get us there any faster but I have to know where I'm going and so this is again what I'm struggling with now to be fair I cannot figure it out and the kids can come either way [laughter] he's not going to wait for me to to figure this out and I'm sure maybe someday he'll look at this podcast and be like my god, dad. Jesus. Um,
Speaker B: 你知道有趣的是什么吗?我觉得汽车的比喻可能不太贴切,因为我当时也试图找另一个比喻,我偶然想到的一个是,在家里种一盆植物。你把种子埋进土里,你可能会想:“我真希望它能长到六英尺高,我真希望它能长出100片叶子”,但是你[笑声]能做的就只是给它浇水,给它阳光,它最终长成什么样就是什么样。
Original English
Speaker B: you know what's interesting? The car analogy I think might not be apt because I I I know I was trying to find another analogy and the one that I stumbled upon was a a plant growing a plant in your house. You put the seed in the in the the soil and you might think I really want this to be six foot and I really want 100 leaves, but you [laughter] all you can do is water it and give it sunlight and it's going to be what it's going to be.
Alex: 是的。我的意思是,你可以祈求“请长到六英尺吧,请成为一名橄榄球运动员吧”之类的话,但你能控制的只有投入,也就是水和阳光。这很有趣,因为我眼下的情况又回到了之前关于祖父的故事,就像是,好吧,我可以把它放在阳光下,也可以把它放在一个糟糕的[笑声]房间里。我可以决定给它浇多少水,给它什么样的土壤。还有很多其他的变量。所以再说一次,我可能会想,我想种出最高的一棵植物吗?还是想种出果实最多的一棵?那么,我可能就会去修剪它,或者做些什么让它长得更高。这些都是可以做的事。但是,我能改变它长成一棵桃树还是一棵苹果树吗?不能。这取决于我种下的种子,而这是我[清嗓子]完全无法控制的。不过,确实有一些事情是我能控制的。而在我能控制的那些事情中,我想知道我到底在向着什么目标进行优化[笑声]。我确信这对我来说将会是绝佳的一堂关于谦逊的课,那一定会很棒,毫无疑问也会有人在评论区笑话我。但是,是的,如果要问我之前我们讨论的内容,我会说,关于Ila(伊拉),我最爱的一点是她从不试图改变我。她的态度就像:“那就是Alex。”你可以希望他成为一棵桃树或苹果树,但他终究是Alex。他就会那样穿衣服。如果明天他想刮掉胡子留个傅满洲式的八字胡,他也会去做的。我将会尽我所能地去优化,去赋予我儿子——以及希望未来的孩子们——尽可能多的技能,让他们能从生活中得到自己想要的东西。我想这就是我最终得出的结论,我会用我所有的资源去赋予他们尽可能多的技能来应对生活。如果我能做到这一点,那么无论他们想去伦敦还是洛杉矶,至少他们有了到达那里的技能。嗯,这是我目前能想到的最深的一步了。
Original English
Alex: Yeah. I mean, you can please be six foot, please be a football player or whatever, but you can control the input, which is the water and the the sunlight. It's funny because like my my immediate situation goes back to the grandpa story, which is like, well, I could put it in front of the I could put it in front of the sun or I could put it in a shitty [laughter] room. I could like I could determine how much I'm going to water it, what kind of soil it's going to get. Um, like there are other variables that like and so again, I would be like, do I want to grow the tallest plant? Do I want to grow the plant that has the most fruit? Well, I would either prune the plant or so that it would grow taller. Like these are all things. Now, can I change whether it's going to be a peach tree or an apple tree? No. That's going to be based on the seed that I plant and that I [clears throat] don't have any control over. But there are some things that I can control and of those things that I control, I would like to know what I'm optimizing towards [laughter] and I'm sure that this will just be a wonderful lesson in humility for myself and it'll [laughter] be great and people laugh in the comments for sure. Um, but yeah, I like [clears throat] I to ask me like what we were talking about earlier. I would say like one of the the foremost things that I love the most about Ila is that Ila has never tried to change me. She's like that's Alex. Like you can want him to be a peach tree or an apple tree, but like he's going to be Alex. He's going to dress that way. He's going to and if tomorrow he feels like shaving his face and having a fumchu, he's going to do that. Like I'm going to try and optimize to the degree that I can to equip the, you know, my son and hopefully future kids um with as many skills as possible to get what they want out of life. And I think that's that's what I would say that I that's where where I have settled on is I'm going to use all the resources I have to give them as many skills as I can to handle life. And if I can do that, then if they want to go to London or they want to go to LA, at least they'll have the skills to get there. Um, that's as far as I've gotten.
向死而生与主观幸福感
Speaker B: 我迫不及待想看看未来的样子了。我看到了你发过的一段推文。有两个你发的推文让我非常好奇。第一个确实让我有些猝不及防,我看到的时候好像还给你发了短信,就是这一条。你想把它读出来吗?
Original English
Speaker B: I can't wait to see. I saw this quote that you you tweeted. Oh. And there's two quotes you tweeted that I was very curious about. The first one which took caught me off guard. I think I actually texted you when I saw this was this one. Do you want to read this one out?
Alex: 好啊。这是在2025年2月写的:“在你的葬礼上,亲朋好友会为了谁能分到你的遗物而争吵。人们会讨论那里的食物和场地。你的一生将被浓缩为两三个段落。谈话的焦点会从你的人生转移到他们自己的人生上。你的朋友们在开车离开时,脑子里想的是他们待办事项清单上的下一件事。有些人因为临时有事甚至无法到场。而你现在认识的大多数人根本就不会出现。你终将死去。人们在几周内——而不是几年——就会翻篇继续生活。所以,做你想做的事吧。”
Original English
Alex: Yeah. So, this was February 2025. At your funeral, friends and family will argue over who gets your belongings. People will talk about the food and the venue. Your life will be summarized in two to three paragraphs. Conversations will shift from your life to their lives. Your friends will drive away thinking about what's next on their to-do list. Some people won't be able to make it because something came up. And most of the people you know today won't even be there. You're going to die. People move on in weeks, not years. do what you want.
Speaker B: 为什么听到这些如此重要?
Original English
Speaker B: Why is that so important to hear?
Alex: 我可能每天会思考好几次死亡。而且我认为这实际上与主观幸福感正相关。我的意思是,老年人无比清楚自己将会死去这个事实。我认为这就是为什么他们能……你可能看过这样一张图表,它展示了人们在人生的不同阶段对主观幸福感的评分。它是一个微笑曲线,我觉得这简直太有趣了。孩子们非常快乐,然后他们慢慢承担起越来越多的责任。而你最不快乐的巅峰时期大概是在45岁到55岁之间。那就像是个压力挤压期。你要照顾孩子,你要照顾父母,你还有事业。平心而论,在某些方面这是件好事,因为你正处于收入巅峰。在这段时间里,大多数人赚到了人生中最多的钱,但他们也不得不去面对这一切。他们承受着巨大的压力,对吧?他们被压力拉扯得很崩溃,然后随着年龄进入60岁、65岁、70岁,当我审视这两端——孩子的一端和老人的一端——时,老人其实在很多方面就像孩子一样,如果你想想看,他们依赖别人,他们主要就是在玩游戏[笑声]。在这两种情况下,他们都几乎没有什么责任,他们也不在乎别人的看法。如果你看到一个蹒跚学步的小孩穿着芭蕾舞裙和牛仔靴出门,那是因为他们根本不在乎别人怎么想。而当你走到生命尽头时,你的想法是:“老兄,反正我都要死了。”所以我一直非常痴迷于一件事,这件事有些极端但可能很准确,那就是我试图去想,等我80岁的时候我会如何看待这个世界?我怎样才能尽快在当下就达到那种境界?因为比起80岁时的我,现在的我更在乎别人的看法。我只想尽可能多地把那种状态提前,因为当我看到那些80岁的老人时,我想:“那家伙根本不在乎别人的看法了。”然后我就觉得,我非常向往那样。所以我写了很多关于死亡的文字,因为我觉得……这些推文算是写给自己的备忘录,不是在说教。当我写下这些东西的时候,它们是我对自己的心理自助。回想25年2月我写下那段话的时候,没错,2025年2月。25年第一季度是我个人过去八年来度过的最艰难的一个季度。
Original English
Alex: I think about death probably multiple times a day. Um, and I think that that's actually been positively correlated with subjective wellbeing. I mean, older people are incredibly aware of the fact that they're going to die. And I think that's what allows them like I look at so there's a I'm sure you've seen this, but there's this graph that shows how people rate their subjective well-being over their lives. And it's a smile graph, which I think is ultimately hilarious. But kids are really happy and then they just become they get more and more responsibility. And then your peak unhappiness is like 45 to like 55 somewhere in there. It's like it's the crunch. You're taking care of kids. You're taking care of parents. You have a career. And to be fair, in some ways it's good because you're at your peak earnings. So you're making your most people are making their most money in this window and but they also need to do it. But there's they're very stressed, right? they're stressed really thin and then as they kind of get into 60 65 70 and when I think about each of these two extremes on the child side and the elderly side and elders are often a lot like kids if we think about what like they they rely on other people. They're mostly just like they play games like [laughter] in each of these situations they have very little responsibility and they don't care about what other people think. If you have if you see a toddler go out with like a tutu and cowboy cowboy boots is because like they don't care what other people think. And when you're at the end of your life, you're like, I'm going to die, dude. And one of the things that I've been very obsessed with is is borderline but probably accurate is I'm trying to think, how am I going to see the world when I'm 80? And how how fast can I can I get to there now? Cuz I care more now about what other people think than I will when I'm 80. And I just want to pull as much of that forward as I can because when I see those 80-year-olds, I'm like, that guy does not give a fuck. And I'm like, I really want that. And so I I write a lot about death because it's I like these tweets are notes to self. They like they are not it is not a it is not from a pulpit that I say those. These are um as a self-help to to Alex when I write these things because it's like I probably when I was writing that in Feb, oh yeah, February 25. So February 25, the first quarter of 25 was the hardest quarter that I've had personally in eight years.
Speaker B: 你在同一时间还发了这条推文。
Original English
Speaker B: You tweeted this at the same time.
Alex: 是的。
Original English
Alex: Yeah.
Speaker B: “我好几年没觉得这么痛苦过了。事情有时候就是这么艰难。你会经历艰难的赛季,糟糕的亏损,而更让人难受的是你不知道这一切何时才会结束。但要明白,它终将结束。所以对于任何现在正经历这些的人,你只能做你能做的事。继续战斗。” 我在你发这条推文时发短信给了你,因为我以前从未见过你公开这样说话。
Original English
Speaker B: I haven't felt this miserable in years. Shit's just hard sometimes. You have tough seasons, bad losses, and what makes it harder is you don't know when it'll end. But know it will end. So for anyone going through it right now, you do the only thing you can do. Keep fighting. I text you when you tweeted that because I had never heard you talk like that publicly before.
Alex: 是啊。是的。我的意思是,那对我来说确实是一个非常艰难的季度。要知道,我没有孩子,所以少了这个变量。但可能出状况的其他任何变量具有讽刺意味地都在商业之外出了问题。公司生意倒是不错,但其他一切都很糟糕。
Original English
Alex: Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it was it was a really tough quarter for me. I mean, mind you, I don't have kids, so that variable wasn't there. But every other variable that probably could have gone quote wrong was actually, ironically, outside of business. Business was fine. Uh, but it was just everything else.
Speaker B: 嗯,你这是什么意思?
Original English
Speaker B: Um, and what do you mean by that?
Alex: 这么说吧,我们确实赚了不少钱。是的。但是,我想那时我身上同时有九起尚未结案的诉讼。那可是很多了,九起正在进行的诉讼。而且它们各不相同,比如有的涉及前员工投资,有两三起是我们做的投资出了问题被人抓住了把柄之类的,当时就在想:我们会不会被拖下水?总之全是一些这类破事。真的非常多。而且,之后Ila——我好像跟你说过——她遇到了一件非常可怕的事,她结肠撕裂了,那需要大概18个月的恢复期。她在准备做手术前正处于那样的巨大痛苦之中,所以当时真的是一切都糟透了。
Original English
Alex: So, I say we were making plenty of money. Yeah. Um, but I had I think I had nine lawsuits that were open at that at that. It was a lot. It was nine nine open lawsuits. Um, and they all like it was like and they were all different like uh ex employee investment that two or two two or three were investments that we had made that like one of them got caught and stuff and then was like are we going to get pulled? It was just all this just stuff. Um just a lot. Um, and and then Ila uh had a like I think I told you she um she had a really horrible she like tore her colon and so that's been it's like it's like an 18-month recovery and so she was in the thick of like going through the pain of that before about to get the surgery and so it was just like everything sucked.
应对人生低谷与建立心理韧性
受访者 (Interviewee): 著名的投资人比尔·阿克曼(Bill Ackman)曾经接受过一个非常精彩且发人深省的采访,我恰好机缘巧合下看到了其中的一个片段。在那个特定的时期,他刚刚经历了一场巨大的财务浩劫,损失了大概十亿美元之巨。不仅如此,他当时的个人生活也处于水深火热之中,正在经历离婚的煎熬,似乎同时还有另外一件同样糟糕且令人头疼的事情。我记得,大概是因为那巨大的十亿美元损失而卷入了一系列极其复杂的法律诉讼之类的麻烦,不管具体细节是什么吧。他在采访中说到,当你正处于那种极其艰难的时期,当你深陷那些人生低谷和泥沼无法自拔的时候,他所能做的就是全神贯注于唯一一件自己当下真正有能力掌控和解决的事情。他当时的切身感受是,面对如此庞大且错综复杂的困局,你不可能在短短一天之内就解决所有问题,你根本无法像完成一个简单任务那样立刻结束这一切噩梦。我认为,这就是这种困境最令人感到窒息和痛苦的地方——它就像是一个永远无法闭合的死循环,每当生活中的什么琐事或者念头让你重新回想起它时,你就仿佛再次跌入了这个不断反刍、反复自我折磨的深渊,你会控制不住地去想“如果事情变得更糟、彻底失控了该怎么办”,并不断地在脑海中把情况灾难化。他当时的应对方法非常朴素但有效:“面对这头巨大的大象,你只能一口一口地吃掉它,每次只集中精力解决眼前的一点点小问题,然后每熬过一两个月,你就可以回头审视一下走过的路,然后欣慰地对自己说,你看,我毕竟还是取得了一些实质性的进展。”他就是用这种心态,完全且纯粹地专注于取得哪怕是微小的进展,一点一滴地凿开并解决这个巨大的难题。我觉得,我当时所采取的应对策略差不多也是这种类似的方法,这有点像那种“只看眼前两步路,不去看遥远山峰”的务实策略——我会问自己,我现在实际真正能着手去做的事情到底是什么?那好,我就去把这些眼前能做好的事情做好。有时候,我还清楚地记得在那段极其难熬的时期里,我脑海中反复思考的很多东西都是关于这个的……所以我写下了一些文字,就在今年我母亲不幸过世的时候,我专门为自己写了一篇长文章。是的。嗯,我为自己写了一篇深入探讨“心理韧性”(mental toughness)的文章。我之所以写它,是因为我想要弄清楚——当然,这并不是说在你母亲刚刚去世这种悲痛时刻,你还非要强迫自己表现得多么冷血和坚强,这绝对不是我要表达的重点。我的重点在于:在这个彻底令人崩溃的当下,我到底应该以怎样的一种精神状态和行动姿态去继续面对生活?这差不多就是我当时内心真实的思考和挣扎过程。所以,我基本上是这样理性地看待这个问题的,那就是,当重大的负面事件、当所谓的“坏事”不可避免地发生时,对吧?我们可以把随之而来的各种反应和结果,看作是在几个不同维度上延伸的矢量。所以,你拥有的第一个维度是:需要持续多长时间的负面影响,或者说需要发生多少件糟糕透顶的事情,才会最终导致你改变自己原有的行为模式。让我们在脑海中想象一下,这条平稳的基准线代表了我们日常的行事方式和性格状态。到底要发生多少件坏事,我们才会在压力下屈服并改变我们的行为方式?我们会不会因此变得对配偶更加缺乏耐心、更加易怒?我们会不会在工作岗位上变得心不在焉、频频出错?就像是,我们要受到多少次打击?如果假设存在一个拥有完美、不可摧毁的心理韧性的人,他或许能够默默承受无限多的灾难性事件降临在自己头上,而他的行为方式、他的道德准则和日常运转依然能够坚如磐石、保持不变——当然,这仅仅是从纯粹的理论角度来看待这个问题。那么接下来的一个更为现实的问题就是,好吧,假设你和我一样,并不是一个心理绝对完美、无坚不摧的人,当有些糟糕的事情不断累积,最终突破了你的忍耐极限和心理防御阈值,导致你的行为不可避免地发生了改变,那么我们就会面临下一个需要衡量的维度。所以我们有了这样的评估标准:你能在这个重压下坚持多久,你究竟能承受多大的打击?当我们最终支撑不住摔倒时,我们会跌入多深的谷底?你的行为究竟会恶化到什么程度?你仅仅是会变得对你的员工大发雷霆、失去耐心,还是会彻底自暴自弃,甚至去沾染海洛因这种毒品?
Original English
Interviewee: and Bill Aman had this really great interview where there's a snippet that I ended up seeing which was he was he had just lost like a billion dollars. he was getting divorced and there was like one other thing. I think there was lawsuits because of the billion dollars, whatever. And and he said when you're going through that that those rough patches, he said he focused on the only thing he could do when he's like you can't you're not going to solve this in a day. Like it you can't finish it. And I think that's what that's what's so painful about it is you have this open loop that whenever it whenever something reminds you of it, it's like you get into this loop again of like rumination and just like a what if it goes wrong and catastrophizing. And he's like, "You just have to take one bite at a time and then every, you know, month or two months, you can look back and be like, I made some progress." And he's like, he just focused on making progress and chipping away at the problem. And I think that was more or less the approach I had, which is kind of like the the two feet in front of you, like what are the things that I can actually do right now? I will do those. And sometimes, and I remember in that season, a lot of what I was thinking about was so I wrote, so when my mother passed uh this year, I wrote an article for myself. Yeah. Um, I wrote an article for myself about mental toughness and it was because I wanted to, of course, it's not like be mentally tough when your mother dies. That's not the point. It was like, how am I supposed to show up right now? That was kind of like the the thought process I had. And so I basically here this so I saw it like this, which is bad thing happens, right? There's these vectors of what happens as a result. So you have how long or how many bad things have to happen before you change your behavior. So let's imagine this line is how we're acting. How many bad things have to happen in order for us to change how we act? Are we shorter with our spouse? Do we not pay attention at work? Like what how many bad things if somebody the perfect perfectly mentally tough person would be able to have an unlimited amount of things happen to them and then their behavior would remain the same from purely from that perspective. The next issue is okay well let's say that you're not a perfectly mentally tough person and something crosses your tolerance threshold and then your behavior changes and so we have this next measurement. So we have how long and how much can you handle? We have how deep do you go when you fall? How how badly do you change your behavior? Do you just are you short with your staff or do you get into heroin?
采访者 (Interviewer): 不是的,就像是,情况到底会有多糟?当你跌倒时,你会跌落到多么惨烈、多么糟糕的境地?
Original English
Interviewer: No, like how bad how badly do you fall?
受访者 (Interviewee): 然后紧接着的下一部分,也就是另一个衡量维度是:你需要花费多长的时间才能够从谷底爬起来、慢慢恢复,并最终重新回到你原本正常的心理机能和工作状态?然后,我自己在这个理论模型之上又补充了非常关键的一点,那就是:当我终于费尽力气恢复到原本的正常机能状态时,我是否因为这场磨难而变得比以前更好了?我是仅仅恢复到了和以前一模一样的水平,还是说,我已经遭受了不可逆转的永久性创伤,变得比以前更糟了?
Original English
Interviewee: And then the next piece is how long does it take you to recover, return back to original function? And then the part that I added to this is and then when I return back to original function, am I better than I was before? Do I am I the same as I was before or am I permanently worse?
采访者 (Interviewer): 你指的是在什么具体的维度上?是指心理层面的韧性,还是纯粹的幸福感?
Original English
Interviewer: In what dimension? resilience or happiness.
受访者 (Interviewee): 所以我基本上把它们梳理为:第一项指标,第二项指标,第三项指标,然后对于这最后一个维度,我把它称之为“适应性”(adaptability),它的核心问题是,当一场可怕的灾难或坏事发生之后,你会作何反应?你是借此契机变得更好了,还是仅仅保持原样,抑或是被彻底击垮而变得更糟了?
Original English
Interviewee: So I I basically have term one, term two, term three and then this was I term this as adaptability which is how how do you respond after a bad thing happens? Do you get better the same or worse?
受访者 (Interviewee): 首先你拥有所谓的“容忍度”(tolerance),我认为这在很大程度上就等同于“坚毅”(fortitude),它的意思是,在那些负面情绪或灾难最终击垮你之前,你到底能够默默承受多少糟糕透顶的事情。然后在这个模型里,我们有了“恢复力”(resilience),它的意思是指,在受到重创之后,你需要耗费多长的时间才能慢慢疗伤,并最终返回到你的正常基准线状态?最后,你还拥有“下限”(这里再次使用 tolerance 指代跌落的底线),也就是说,当你跌倒时,你究竟会下坠到多深、多黑暗的谷底?
Original English
Interviewee: You have tolerance I think this is fortitude um which is how much bad stuff can you handle before it hits you. You have resilience here, which is how long does it take you to return to baseline? And then you have tolerance, which is how how low do you go?
面对失去与反思痛苦
受访者 (Interviewee): 因此,通过清晰地描绘出这四个行为反应维度的变化轨迹,我得以在那个令我痛不欲生、极其艰难的人生季节里,重新审视和剖析自己。而这真是一件让人感觉十分荒谬、甚至充满着命运讽刺意味的事情,因为你仔细想想看。我刚刚策划并完成了一次价值高达1.06亿美元的、史无前例的超大规模产品发布活动。我的母亲在世时亲眼见证了这一切的发生,这对我来说真的是一件非常酷、非常有意义的事情。然而,仅仅在四周之后,她就永远地离开了人世。我实现了我长久以来为之奋斗的目标,我们总是在商业上谈论长期目标,对吧?一亿美元,一亿美元,一亿美元。出版那些书的最终目标,就是要在那一刻实现一亿美元的惊人收益。《一亿美元Offer》这本书本身所提供的提案,好到足以让人们觉得不买简直就是无可救药的傻子。我把这本书几乎是免费地送了出去,或者说只象征性地卖了99美分,而且我还附送了一整套高价值的配套课程。在此之前,这个行业里从来没有任何人敢这么干过。所以,正是因为这是一个如此不可思议、好到令人难以拒绝的Offer,我们获得了海量的潜在优质客户。我进行了一次规模巨大、简直如同天文数字般庞大的发布活动,但我并没有借此机会去直接收割变现,因为我内心深处只是想向所有人展示,当你对某件极具价值的产品进行那种疯狂的、铺天盖地的广告宣传时,究竟能够产生怎样震撼市场的惊人效果。而且我完完全全地运用了书里所写的所有营销策略来宣传这本书本身。要知道,这本书的主题恰恰就是关于如何有效变现的。因此,我手握一个极具吸引力且令人无法拒绝的完美Offer、配合着疯狂的广告宣传攻势,以及隐藏在其背后的一套严密且高效的商业赚钱模式,这就是为什么我能够在一个短短的周末就狂揽一亿美元的根本原因。
Original English
Interviewee: And so through mapping these four vectors of behavior, I was able to look at myself during this harder season. And this was such a mind because think about this. I do a $106 million launch. My mom got to see it, which is really cool. She dies four weeks later. I realized the goal, we talk about long-term, right? $100 million, $100 million, $100 million. The goal of the books was to have $100 million at the end. The offers book was an offer so good people sell stupid. I gave it away for free, made it 99 cents, gave a course with it. No one had done that. Um, and it was an offer so good leads. I did a huge gigantic launch, but I didn't monetize because I just wanted to show what having crazy advertising for something would do. And I used all the stuff in the book to advertise the book. This book's about monetization. And so, I had an amazing offer and crazy advertising and a money model behind it, which is why I made $100 million on a weekend.
采访者 (Interviewer): 嗯哼。
Original English
Interviewer: Mhm.
受访者 (Interviewee): 所以,你看,这是一个我筹备和持续了多年的庞大项目。然后,我就这样迎来了这所有辛勤付出和心血终于开花结果、达到巅峰的高光时刻。可是紧接着,不到三周,也就是不到一个月的时间之后,我的母亲就去世了。事情正好发生在那一个月的19号,对吧?所以,是的。这简直就是完完全全发生在一个月后的事情。所以,这是一场毫无征兆、完全意想不到的飞来横祸。
Original English
Interviewee: So, this is a multi-year project. And so, I I get to have this this moment of like all these things come to fruition. And then my mother dies 3 weeks. It was the 19th, right? So, yeah. Literally a month later. And so, a freak accident.
采访者 (Interviewer): 是的。
Original English
Interviewer: Yeah.
受访者 (Interviewee): 所以,我当时满脑子都在想,我到底该怎么应对这一切?我到底该如何去理性地思考和处理这些突如其来的变故?因此,我为自己写下了那篇文章,用来梳理思绪,思考:好吧,我现在究竟该以什么样的精神面貌和具体行动继续我的生活?而且,在这个反思的过程中,我还发现了一件非常有趣且值得探讨的社会现象,那就是人们往往会通过你选择承受多大程度的痛苦,来主观地评判你到底有多爱那个人。可是,我选择了承受多少折磨和痛苦,跟我在内心深处对她的爱有多深,这两者之间在逻辑上到底有什么必然的联系呢?我觉得,如果你真的不幸失去了某个对你至关重要的人——对不起,我想表达的是——我坚信那个永远离开你的人,绝对不会希望看到你余生都一直沉浸在无尽的痛苦和自责之中。然而,在我们所处的社会文化中,普遍存在着这样一种根深蒂固的观念,认为我们必须通过展现出遭受了巨大的痛苦来向外界证明我们真挚的爱。但我当时冷静下来的想法是:“嗯,这其实是一个我被世俗赋予的、先入为主的假设。我有没有权利去拒绝接受这种假设?”我对自己说:“是的,我想我完全可以、也应该拒绝这种荒谬的想法。”所以,当巨大的悲痛和坏事发生,并且不可避免地突破了我的心理防线时,我会让自己跌落到多低的谷底?在那段最难熬的时间里,我肯定对生活提不起什么兴致,一点也不觉得生活充满阳光或让人兴奋。但我在努力思考,好吧,在这样的境地里,我还能做些什么有意义的事?什么是依然牢牢掌握在我自己控制范围内的变量?嗯,我还是会继续录制我的内容。我依然会去帮助那些需要帮助的企业,因为通过帮助那些企业解决问题能让我获得巨大的成就感,让我感觉良好。我有什么理由要停止做这件让我感到充实和开心的事情呢?我依然会去健身房努力锻炼,因为大汗淋漓的锻炼能让我身体释放内啡肽,让我感觉良好。我为什么又要停止做这件事呢?
Original English
Interviewee: And so, I'm I'm just like, what how am I supposed to like what am I how do I think through this? And so, I wrote this for myself to think, okay, how am I supposed to show up? And also one of the things that I found really interesting was that people will judge how much you love someone by how much you choose to suffer. And why does how much I suffer have anything to do with how much I love someone? And I don't think that the person, if you did lose somebody, I'm sorry. Um I don't think the person that you lost probably wants you to suffer. And so we have this this idea that we need to suffer to prove our love, which I was like, "Well, that's an assumption I'm coming in with. Do I reject that?" I was like, "Yeah, I think I reject that. And so bad thing happens that crossed my threshold. How low am I going to go? I was probably not like the most thrilled about life during that period. But I thought, well, what can I do? What are my controllables? Well, I'm still going to record content. I'm still I'm still going to help businesses cuz I feel good when I help businesses. Why would I stop doing that? Well, I'm still going to work out cuz I feel good when I work out. Why do I Why would I stop doing that?
采访者 (Interviewer): 但你当时做这些事情的时候真的有内在的动力吗?你是那种俗套意义上的、充满激情的“充满动力”吗?你是发自内心地、很享受地想去做这些事吗?
Original English
Interviewer: Did you have motivation though? Were you motivated in the sort of cliche sense of the word? Did you feel like it?
受访者 (Interviewee): 我会坦诚地说“是的”,但背后的原因绝对不是普罗大众通常以为的那样充满正能量。我之所以依然保持着强大的动力,纯粹是因为两个核心原因。第一,因为我深知她绝对不会希望我因为她的离去而停下前进的脚步。第二,因为做这些日常的事情确实能够真切地让我感觉好受一些,而当时的我内心正被无尽的痛苦所折磨,感觉糟糕透顶,所以我极度渴望让自己哪怕只能感觉好那么一点点。我拼尽全力努力让自己生活中的任何改变降到最低,竭力维持原有的秩序,正是这种对秩序的坚守支撑我熬过了那段最黑暗的时光。现在有些旁观者会以一种说教的口吻对我说:“哦,你需要给自己留出一段时间去好好哀悼。”但我心想,为什么我哀悼和表达悲伤的方式,就必须得看起来和你们哀悼的方式一模一样呢?而且,哀悼这种极其私密的情感体验,难道还真的分什么绝对的对错标准吗?
Original English
Interviewee: I would say yes, but not for the reason that people think. I was motivated for two reasons. One, because I don't think she would want me to stop. And number two, because those things made me feel better and I felt bad and so I wanted to feel better. I tried to change as little about my life as possible and that is what got me through that. And now some people say, "Oh, you need to take time to mourn." It's like, why does the way I mourn have to look the way you mourn? And why do why is is there a right or wrong way to mourn?
采访者 (Interviewer): 她一定非常为你所取得的这一切感到骄傲。
Original English
Interviewer: She must have been so proud of you.
受访者 (Interviewee): 是的,她确实很为我骄傲。她一直都是这样。
Original English
Interviewee: She was. She was.
采访者 (Interviewer): 我们经常在访谈里谈论你的父亲,以及他对你的影响,但我们还从来没有真正过多地、深入地谈论过你的母亲。
Original English
Interviewer: We talk a lot about your dad, but we've never really spoken much about your mom.
受访者 (Interviewee): 是的,我平时确实不怎么谈起她。她是个非常温柔、无比善良的女士。是的,她总是……她总是对我充满着毫无保留的信心。所以,我认为我们之前谈到的最后这一点,也就是关于“适应性”的那个维度,它的深层含义意味着:在怎样的一个信念世界里,这件看似毁灭性的事情能让我浴火重生、变得更好?像这样无法挽回的巨大失去,到底如何才能让我成长得更加强大?另外,顺便说一句,就像这种深刻的创伤,这种突然降临的厄运和坏事,它往往让你受到永久性的、难以愈合的负面影响,让你变得更糟了,对吧?那么这就顺理成章地引出了一个灵魂拷问,那是怎样的一种糟糕状态?如果我真的能从这场巨大的磨难中汲取力量并获得成长,那又会是怎样一种充满韧性的面貌?我认为,其中很重要的一部分就在于,我要用实际行动证明我能够继续坚定地前行,并且把这种不屈不挠的前行作为我深深纪念她、缅怀她的一种最独特的方式。而且,我要继续去勇敢地尝试,去执着地追寻那条道路——她深知,早在我当年离家去打拼时、在我当初离开那个家门并和她倾心长谈时,就已经立志要去拼搏和追寻的那条人生道路,你明白我的意思吗?嗯,所以说,从那个离家的时刻到现在的这一刻,有什么本质的东西改变了吗?并没有,只不过是我离自己日思夜想、拼命想要到达的那个终点目标更近了一步而已,而且我无比坚信,她绝对不希望我因为她的离去而半途而废、轻易放弃那条充满希望的道路。所以,我别无选择,我只能、也必须继续像个战士一样战斗下去。
Original English
Interviewee: No, I don't. She's a sweet lady. Yeah, she always she always believed. And so I think this last one right adaptability which is in what world can this make me better? Like how can how can this loss make me better? And also, by the way, like this trauma, bad thing happens, you're permanently worse, right? And so it's like, what would that look like? What would me growing from this look like? And I think part of that was proving that I can continue as my way of honoring her and her memory. and I'm going to continue to try and pursue the the path that she knew I started pursuing when I left home when I talked to her when I when I left, you know. Um, and so like what's changed between then and now? I'm just closer to where I was trying to go and I don't think she would want me to abandon that path. And so I just you keep fighting.
关于幸福的对话
采访者 (Interviewer): 你之前和托尼·罗宾斯(Tony Robbins)有过一次深度的对话,我觉得那次交流非常棒,极其精彩且引人深思。实际上,我还专门就那次访谈的具体内容和他探讨过。嗯,我非常好奇那次对话是否在某种更深层的意义上改变了你。你当时和他热烈地探讨了关于幸福这个话题。你在节目里说,你以前也跟我说过非常类似的话,那就是对你个人而言,追寻“幸福”从来都不是你人生中最优先考虑的事情,甚至不是你的核心目标。
Original English
Interviewer: You had that conversation with Tony Robbins which I found to be amazing. It's fantastic conversation. I spoke to him about it actually. Um I wondered if it had changed you in any way. You talked to him about happiness. You you'd said that you know you'd said some similar things to me that happiness had never been a high priority for you.
受访者 (Interviewee): 是的。
Original English
Interviewee: Yeah.
采访者 (Interviewer): 那么,那次被外界认为极其成功的对话,有哪怕稍微改变了一点点你对幸福的固有看法吗?(笑声)
Original English
Interviewer: Did that conversation change your perspective at all on happiness? [snorts]
受访者 (Interviewee): 我多希望,我真的多希望我能毫不犹豫地告诉你它确实改变了我。嗯,因为我觉得如果我那样说的话,对于外界和听众而言,听起来绝对会是一个更加漂亮、更加符合大众期待的完美公关说辞。但事实并非如此。是的。
Original English
Interviewee: I would I would love to say that it did. Um because I think it would be like a better sound bite. Yeah.
关于幸福的探讨
Speaker A: 嗯,并不完全是。
Original English
Speaker A: Um, not really.
Speaker B: 那么,关于幸福这个话题,你现在处于什么阶段?你……你快乐吗?
Original English
Speaker B: So, where are you now on the subject of happiness? Are you are you happy?
Speaker A: 我觉得这个问题很难回答。主要因为我甚至都不太清楚它到底是什么意思。嗯,因为,比如有些人你会觉得……我感受到喜悦了吗?当然。但你甚至在葬礼上也能感受到喜悦。
Original English
Speaker A: I have a tough time with that. Mostly because I just I don't really even know what it means. Um, because like there's some people that you like, do I feel joy? Of course. But you can feel joy at a at a funeral.
Speaker B: 你对自己的生活感到兴奋吗?你在日常生活中对生命充满热情吗?
Original English
Speaker B: Are you excited by your life? Are you excited about life on a daily basis?
Speaker A: 是的,我对我的生活有着极其浓厚的兴趣。我对我所从事的事情非常着迷。
Original English
Speaker A: Yes, I'm I'm intensely interested in my life. I'm very fascinated by the things that I work on.
Speaker B: 做你自己感觉好吗?
Original English
Speaker B: Does it feel good to be you?
Speaker A: 有时候吧。我觉得……我觉得好日子还是比坏日子多。
Original English
Speaker A: Sometimes. I think I think more days than not.
“奋斗者”的心态与幸福的基线
Speaker B: 大概是吧。阿瑟·布鲁克斯(Arthur Brooks)的一些观点很有启发,你知道他的理论。他专门谈论了那些“奋斗者”,我当时的反应是,别跟我说这个了。[笑声] 他把奋斗者定义为像你这样的人。他们是高成就者。非常有趣的是,他描述了奋斗者典型的童年。他说的几乎分毫不差。就是这样的。他说,通常是移民父母,或者类似的情况,他们希望孩子表现出色,并且只有在孩子做了好事情时才给予认可。然后发生的事情是,孩子学到了爱是需要赚取的,于是你就学会了这个循环。你在这个循环中被不断强化。然后你赢得了更多,赚取了更多的爱。接着你步入广阔的世界,然后你会想,我该如何获得更多这种“毒品”,这种“爱的毒品”,这意味着我需要尽可能多地赚取?我需要尽可能多地赚取。所以你就对工作的循环上瘾了。我觉得这非常引人深思。但他的研究中还有另一部分,实际上在某种程度上让我感到非常踏实,那就是大约一半的主观幸福感是基因决定的。
Original English
Speaker B: Probably. One of the things that Arthur Brooks has been really helpful you know his stuff. Um and he talks specifically to strivers and I'm like stop talking to me. [laughter] So strivers he defines as people who like you are strivers. They're high achievers. And what's really interesting is he describes what the childhood of a strive is. He's like almost to a tea. This is what it is. He's like, it's typically an immigrant parent or something like that where they're trying to do a good job and they basically withhold approval only when the kid does a good thing. And then what happens is the kid learns that love is earned and then you learn that loop. You're reinforced for that loop. And then you do win more and you earn more love. And then you get into the big wide world and then you're like, how do I get more of this drug, this love drug, which means I need to earn as much as possible? I need to earn as much as possible. So you just get addicted to the loop of working. And so I find this really fascinating. But the other part of of of his work that has been actually in some ways very like grounding for me is about half of your subjective wellbeing is genetic.
Speaker A: 一半。所以,澄清一下,我觉得我是非常幸运的。我生命中有很多顺利的好事。我母亲那边的家族遗传树上,有很多棘手的精神健康问题。非常糟糕的问题。但他们在某些方面也非常聪明。我有时候会想,也许我已经达到了我那50%基因决定的幸福上限,并且我已经做得极好了。但问题是,我并不知道,因为我们不知道……你知道,如果你生下来就有7英尺高,每个人都能看到。但有些人出生时在幸福感上可能只有1英尺高,他们学会在1英尺高的情况下把篮球打得非常非常好,而人们依然会说,哦,他只有1英尺高。所以我不知道该如何评判我做得有多好。我会说我曾经的状态比现在糟糕得多。我强烈地想要继续活下去。对我来说,这是一个非常强烈的指标。回答你的问题,阿尔贝·加缪(Albert Camus)是我最喜欢的哲学家之一。他有一句我非常喜爱的话,那就是:你生命的意义是什么?他对这个问题的回答是:你不自杀的理由。这听起来有些黑暗,但很多非常黑暗的事物可以转化为非常光明的事物,也就是说,当你问别人那个问题时,他们通常会回答,嗯,我的意思是,我的孩子们,我的妻子,那些依赖我的人,这就是对的,这就是你活着的原因。而且这个东西也是会改变的,因为如果你十年前问我,我的回答会和现在不一样,也许二十年后又会不一样。
Original English
Speaker A: half. And so and to be clear like I'm I'm super blessed. I have a lot of good things that have gone for me. My mother's side of the family tree has a lot of tough mental stuff. Uh very bad stuff. But they're also really brilliant in some ways. I think to myself like maybe I'm just maxed out on my 50 and I'm crushing it. But the thing is is like I don't know because like we don't you know if if you're if you're born 7 feet tall everyone can see it. But some people are born probably one foot tall in terms of happiness and they learn to play basketball really really well at one foot and people are still like oh he's only one foot tall. So I don't I don't know how to judge how well I'm doing. I would say that I have been way worse than I am now. I aggressively want to keep living. And to me that's a that's a really strong indicator for me. Um and to answer like Albert Kamu is one of my favorite philosophers. Um and he has this quote that I I love which is what is the meaning of your life? And his answer to that is the reason you don't kill yourself. And it's it sounds dark, but a lot of very dark things can be flipped into very light things, which is that when you ask someone that question, they'll typically answer like, well, I mean, my my kids, my wife, the people that rely on me, and it's like, right, that's why you're alive. And that thing can also change because like if you asked me 10 years ago, I'd have a different answer than I do this this time, and maybe in 20 years it'll be different.
理解他人的心理预设
Speaker B: 我做这个播客学到的最了不起的事情之一,就是真正理解了人们在心理健康方面所拥有的天生倾向,以及他们的大脑与他们共处的方式。就像在成长的过程中,我以为每个人的大脑都和我的差不多,大家都会这么想。后来,你知道的,你偶然进入了播客这个领域,你开始采访不同的人,然后去探究,“你的大脑里在发生什么?”[笑声]
Original English
Speaker B: One of the remarkable things I learned from doing this podcast is a real appreciation for people's predisposition as it relates to mental health and the way that their mind is with them. Like growing up, I thought everyone's mind was like mine as you do. And then for, you know, you stumble across this thing called podcasting, you start interviewing people and going, "What's going on in your brain?" [laughter]
Speaker A: 然后他们把自己的想法展示给你,你会觉得,他们不可能在跟我说实话。这不可能是真的,怎么会有这样的人。我还记得我坐在这里,和一位喜剧演员聊天,他告诉我,他的大脑里有一个声音,真的在期盼他失败。那个声音确确实实地告诉他,他很可悲,他注定会失败,他很糟糕,刚才的表现糟透了,你让自己丢脸了。我当时想,天哪,这难道不疯狂吗?原来存在一种关于心理健康预设的特权,而我们大多数人甚至没有意识到自己拥有这种特权。当你说话时,我觉得这很迷人,就像我假设的那样,当你听到别人回答“你快乐吗?”这个问题时,他们只是简单地说,“是的,当然。”这就很吸引人。
Original English
Speaker A: And then they they play it to you and you go that they can't possibly be telling me the truth. It can't possibly be the case that there's other people. And I remember sitting here with um a comedian who told me that inside his brain there's a voice that literally roots for his failure. That literally tells him he's he's pathetic, he's going to fail, he's terrible, this was terrible, you've embarrassed yourself. And I thought, gosh, isn't that crazy that there is like a mental health mindset privilege which most of us don't even acknowledge the privilege of. And when you speak, I it's fascinating to me in the same in the same way that I might assume that it's fascinating when you hear someone answer the question, "Are you happy?" and they just go, "Yes, of course."
Speaker B: 是的。对。[笑声]
Original English
Speaker B: Yeah. Right. [laughter]
Speaker A: 比如,当你听到人们说,“是的,我极其快乐”时,你真的会对这种回答感到好奇吗?
Original English
Speaker A: Like, is that really curious to you when you hear people say, "Yes, I'm I'm amazingly happy."
Speaker B: 是的。
Original English
Speaker B: Yeah.
Speaker A: 这让你感到好奇吗?
Original English
Speaker A: Is that curious to you?
Speaker B: 嗯,有点吧。我觉得当我听到别人这么说的时候,可能在我还没来得及思考自己的回应之前,我最直接的直觉反应就是:好吧,他们可能甚至都没有定义过幸福到底是什么,他们只是想给出一个简单的答案。[笑声]
Original English
Speaker B: Um, sort of. I think when when I hear someone say that, like probably my immediate gut response before I even like think about my response um is well, they probably haven't even defined what happiness is and they just wanted to give an easy answer. [laughter]
自豪感与生命的意义
Speaker A: 有意思。就像这就是我立刻想到的。但这就像是我能给任何人提供的最纯粹的绝对真相,那就是,我对我生命中迄今为止所做的事情感到非常自豪。我回顾过去,可以感叹说,我为我做到了那些而感到自豪,我感受到了那种成就感,那么,依附于“自豪”的情感到底是什么呢?
Original English
Speaker A: Interesting. Like that's like that's what I immediately think. But like I it's like this is like the the absolute as as raw truth as I could possibly give to anyone which is that like I I am very proud of the things that I've done up to this point in my life. Like I I can look back and be like I'm proud that I did that and I and I feel that sense of accomplishment and I and I what is the emotion attached to proud?
Speaker B: 我不知道,自豪本身算是一种情感吗?
Original English
Speaker B: I don't is is pride itself an an emotion?
Speaker A: 我不知道。一个人如何将自豪作为一种情感来体验?那是一种什么感觉……
Original English
Speaker A: I don't know. How does one experience pride as an emotion? Is that like a feel
Speaker B: 非常充实?我会非常高兴自己做成了这些事情,比如摆在你面前的这些书。我对此感到无比自豪。
Original English
Speaker B: very full? I'm like very happy that I did these things like the books that you have in front of you. I'm incredibly proud of.
Speaker A: 如果它是一种面部表情,自豪看起来会是什么样?
Original English
Speaker A: If it was a facial expression, how would pride look?
Speaker B: 没错。
Original English
Speaker B: Yeah.
Speaker A: 不。
Original English
Speaker A: No,
Speaker B: 不,对我来说不是。我的意思是,这对我来说是非常触动灵魂的。就像,我被这项工作深深地充实着,这就是为什么我继续做下去的原因。我知道,当我死后,我认为能真正超越我的生命、在我被人遗忘后依然留存下来的,只有这些书。我的YouTube视频最终会消失。所有那些东西都会随风而逝,但我认为这些书会留存下来。我也是抱着这样的心态来写它们的。我写书的时候,潜意识里就会想,读这些书的人不会知道我是谁。
Original English
Speaker B: no, not for me. I mean, I'm just it's it's very soulful for me. Like, I'm I'm very filled by this work and that's why that's why I keep doing it. And I know that when I die, I think the thing that will actually the the only thing that I think has a chance of living on past me, past when people even know who I am is these books. My YouTube videos are going to disappear. Like all that stuff will go away, but I think I think these books will survive. And I write them that way. Like I write them kind of thinking that like the people who read this will not know who I am.
不贩卖幸福的商业哲学
Speaker A: 那人们应该来找你寻求关于幸福的建议吗?
Original English
Speaker A: Should people come to you for happiness advice?
Speaker B: 不应该。去吧,去找那些真正幸福的人。嗯,实际上最困难的地方在于,对吧?没有人知道别人的基线幸福水平是什么,这才是最难办的。
Original English
Speaker B: No. Go go go find somebody who's really happy. Um the here's actually here's what's really tough though, right? is that no one knows base what someone's base level is and that's what's so tough.
Speaker A: 我之所以问这个问题,是因为首先,我认为很多人假设这项工作——学习如何实现财务自由、建立一家企业,都是为了服务于我们都认同的那个北极星,那就是幸福。
Original English
Speaker A: I think I asked that because one I think a lot of people assume that this work learning how to be financially free and to build a business is in service of this north star which we all agree upon which is happiness.
Speaker B: 对。
Original English
Speaker B: Yeah.
Speaker A: 所以人们可能会想,好吧,如果建立企业并获得一亿美元的交易或者别的什么,最终并不能带来幸福的回报,那这么做有什么意义呢?如果你告诉我你并不是那个可以寻求幸福建议的人,我就会说:“那这到底是图什么?如果这不能让我达到那个目标,我为什么还要这么做?你明白我的意思吗?”
Original English
Speaker A: So one would think okay what's the point building a business and getting a $100 million deal or whatever if it doesn't then lead to the happiness payoff. And if you're telling me that you're not the person to come to for happiness advice, I go, "Well, then what's what's this then? Why do I need to do this if this is not going to make me do you see what I'm saying?"
Speaker B: 哦,我完全明白你的意思。也就是,最初为什么要费心去追求这些。
Original English
Speaker B: Oh, I totally see what you're saying. Which is why bother pursuing this to begin with.
Speaker A: 是的。如果你不向我承诺幸福是最终的北极星。
Original English
Speaker A: Yeah. If it's if you're not promising me happiness as the north star.
Speaker B: 对。我不会做这种承诺。
Original English
Speaker B: Yeah. I won't do that.
Speaker A: 好吧。
Original English
Speaker A: Okay.
Speaker B: 很多人会向你贩卖幸福。但我不会是其中之一。我试图去提供可以量化的东西。比如,我知道如果有更多的人了解你的产品,你就会赚得更多。如果你有更好的变现方式,有更快的回笼资金的方法,你的企业就会成长得更大。如果你提供了一个好到让人觉得拒绝就是愚蠢的报价,他们就不会拒绝,他们会答应。
Original English
Speaker B: Many people will sell you happiness. I will not be one of them. Um I try to sell quantitative things. Like I know that if more people find out about your stuff, you will make more. If you have a better way of monetizing and a faster way to bring cash forward, your business will grow more. If you have an offer that's so good people stupid saying no, they won't say no and they'll say yes.
Speaker A: 但你没有任何承诺或保证,说这将会把你的生活引向何方。
Original English
Speaker A: But you make no promise or guarantee where that would lead you in your life.
Speaker B: 没有,那对我来说已经超出了我的范畴。
Original English
Speaker B: No, that's to me like that's beyond my scope.
Speaker A: 明白了。
Original English
Speaker A: Fine.
Speaker B: 就像我清楚自己的边界。是的。所以我很享受讨论关于幸福的话题,因为我喜欢这种模糊抽象的话题。[笑声] 但是,正如当你问起托尼的事情时我一开始做出的结论,我至少有这样一种世界观,这可能是错的,那就是人类,我们内在的情感就像天气一样。
Original English
Speaker B: Like I know. Yeah. And so I I enjoy the topic of of the happiness stuff because I I love amorphous topics. [laughter] Um, but the the conclusion that I said I started with when you asked about the Tony thing was I at least my it is my worldview which could be wrong that human beings our internal feelings are like the weather.
Speaker A: 嗯。总会有晴天,也会有……
Original English
Speaker A: Mhm. There's sunny days and
应对生活与商业中的情绪波动
Alex Hormozi: 无论是有阴雨天,还是有梅雨季,抑或是有晴朗的季节,我们都会经历这一切。即使情况有所好转,我们的基准线也会随之调整。因为如果我们把一年作为一个整体来考虑——实际上我也向我的销售团队举过这个例子。如果我们把这看作是一年,并且我们有一年中的所有日子,那么一半的日子会高于平均水平,而另一半则会低于平均水平。每个月你都会有三次处于后10%的糟糕日子,因为一年中有36天会毫无理由地成为后10%的日子,这纯粹是大数定律在起作用。同时,你每个月也会有三天——几乎是每周一天——会成为全年排名前10%的好日子。这相当可观,因为几乎每周就有一天。所以,我经常会思考这种波动性。当我度过一个所谓的“糟糕的一天”时——因为我也会有这样的日子,而且是经常有——我就只会想,这大概只是那后10%的日子之一罢了。
Original English
Alex Hormozi: there's rainy days and there's rainy seasons and there's sunny seasons and we go through them all. And even if things get better, our baseline adjusts so that yet again cuz like if we think about a year, I actually give this example to my sales team. So if we think about this as a year and we have all the days of the year, half the days are going to be above average and half the days are going to be below average. And every month you're going to have a bottom 10% day three times because you have 36 days per year that are going to be bottom 10% days for no reason purely because law of large numbers and you're also going to have three days per month which is almost one a week. That's going be a top 10% day of the whole year. Pretty impressive. But it's one a week almost. Right. And so I think about this variability a lot because when I'm having a quote bad day because I have them I have I have them all the time. Um and I just think this is probably just the bottom 10% day.
Alex Hormozi: 并且,我想我从创业视角转化到生活中的其中一个教训就是:我情绪上的不适,并不是改变我当前所做之事的充分理由。所以,我们会经历这些不满或不适的时刻,并且会觉得:“生活糟透了,我需要改变一些事情。”如果你对你的整体生活不满意,那就去改变一些东西。但如果你只是对今天的生活不满意,也许不要直接和你妻子分手。
Original English
Alex Hormozi: And like and [clears throat] I think the the one of the one of the lessons that I've learned from an entrepreneurship perspective translated into life is my emotional discomfort is not an adequate reason to change what I'm doing. And so we will get these moments of dissatisfaction or discomfort and be like I'm life sucks. I need to change something. And if you don't like your life in general, change something. But if you don't like your life today, maybe don't break up with your wife.
Alex Hormozi: 也许可以先缓一天,对吧?所以我想,我再次从创业者的角度出发来看待这个问题,那就是人们在度过糟糕的一天后,往往会把情绪发泄在自己的生意上,然后改变一堆事情,最后毁掉了这个好不容易才起步的初创公司,仅仅是因为他们无法忍受某种情绪上的需求。这也是为什么这个图表对我来说如此有价值——我那处于后10%的糟糕日子,是否严重到足以让我改变自己的行为?如果我认定自己即使过了糟糕的一天也依然能做好工作,那这就是美好的一天。
Original English
Alex Hormozi: Maybe give it a day. Right? And so I think again, I come from the entrepreneur perspective, which is that people will have a bad day and then basically take it out on their business and then change a bunch of things and then destroy what they're with this fledgling business that's getting going because they had an emotional need that they could not tolerate. And so that's why this graph has been so valuable to me, which is is my bottom 10% day a big enough thing for me to change my behavior. If I determine that I can have a bad day and still do good work, that is a good day.
AI 时代的商业准备
Host: Alex,我们有一个闭幕传统,就是上一位嘉宾会给下一位嘉宾留一个问题,而他们并不知道这个问题是留给谁的。这个问题很有趣:如果你相信在各个方面都比最优秀的人类更好、更快、更便宜的超级人工智能在几年后就会出现,你会怎么做?嗯,你会怎么做?
Original English
Host: Alex, we have a closing tradition where the last guest leaves a question for the next guest not knowing who they're leaving it for. Funny question. What would you do if you believed that super intelligent AI, better, faster, cheaper, etc. than the best humans at everything was just a few years away? Mhm. What would you do?
Alex Hormozi: 在商业方面,我会尽可能多地建立现实世界中的事实证明,并尽可能多地与众多客户建立业绩记录。这样我就可以强化一个品牌,在未来的市场中赋予我一些差异化优势。
Original English
Alex Hormozi: On the business side, I would build as much real world proof as I possibly could and as much track record with as track record with as many customers as I could so that I could reinforce a brand that would give me some differentiation in that future marketplace.
Host: 所以从商业角度来看,你会专注于建立一个更强大的品牌。
Original English
Host: So you'd focus on building a stronger brand from a business perspective.
Host: 为什么呢?
Original English
Host: Why?
Alex Hormozi: 因为我认为,在一个每个人都能接触到超级智能的世界里,什么样的事情将是……比如人们在未来还会关心声誉吗?很可能会。所以,我认为那是不会改变的东西。分发仍然需要花钱。像那些事情,我认为依然会是事实。可能成本会降低,但仍然需要成本。而且通常来说……再次强调,因为其中仍然存在市场动态。不想在这一点上纠缠太多细节,但从创业的角度来看,我会继续建立信任和分发渠道。而从个人的角度来看,我会非常认真地思考作为人类意味着什么,以及我最初为什么会在这里。
Original English
Alex Hormozi: Because I think in a world where everyone has access to a super intelligence. Um what are the things that are going to like will people still care about reputations in the future? Probably. And so I see that as something that won't change. Distribution will still cost money. Like those things I think those things will be true. Might be less, but it'll still cost. And typically if again because there's there's still marketplace dynamics. Not to get into the the weeds on this, but from an entrepreneurship perspective, I would continue to build trust and distribution. From a personal perspective, I would think really hard about what it means to be human and why I'm here to begin with.
个人生活与书籍推荐
Host: 你总有一天会去买个农场吗?
Original English
Host: You going to buy a farm one day?
Alex Hormozi: 我……这并非不在考虑范围内。我的意思是,Leila 对此非常热衷。所以,
Original English
Alex Hormozi: I'm It's not out of the equation. Um I mean, Leila's Ila's super gung-ho on that. So,
Host: 买个牧场。
Original English
Host: on a ranch.
Alex Hormozi: 是的,我们差点就买了。事实上,在我们第一次出售公司的时候,我们差点就买了一个。
Original English
Alex Hormozi: Yeah, we almost did. We almost bought one actually the first time we sold.
Host: 我应该引导大家去哪里?所以,如果大家想向你学习更多,你有一个 YouTube 频道,你在那里刚刚开始了一个非常有趣的新系列。我也会在下面附上链接,供那些想看的人点击。这有点像《龙穴》(Dragon's Den)或《创智赢家》(Shark Tank)的节目形式,你邀请创业者来参加,他们将在这个淘汰赛系列的剧集中竞争 10 万美元的投资。非常有趣。我面前摆着这四本书,那边还有一本,但这四本属于《一亿美元》系列的书自发行以来,总销量已经超过了 500 万册。实际上,你已经打破了卖出这么多册这类书籍的世界纪录。就是这一本。
Original English
Host: Where do I direct? So, if people want to learn more from you, you've got your YouTube channel where you've just started this brand new series which is really interesting. I'll link that below as well for people that um want to watch it. It's kind of like a Dragon's Den Shark Tanky format where you're bringing entrepreneurs, they're competing for $100,000 um through this knockout series of episodes. Very interesting. These four books in front of me, there's another one over there, but these four here that from the hundred million dollar series have all sold more than 5 million copies since inception. You've actually broke the world record for selling so many copies of this book. This one.
Alex Hormozi: 是的。
Original English
Alex Hormozi: Yeah.
Host: 嗯,在短期内,比如 24 小时之类的极具创纪录的时间里。
Original English
Host: Um in the short sort of a 24-hour period or something creative like that.
Alex Hormozi: 是的,24 小时内 290 万册。
Original English
Alex Hormozi: 2.9 and 24.
Host: 令人震惊。我会在下方附上所有这些书籍的链接。对于那些想要寻找通关秘籍的人来说,它们是必读之物。这可能会让你在商业世界中获得十年的先发优势。这些书中用了一种极其通俗易懂的方式来进行解释,里面确实有你的手绘图。
Original English
Host: Staggering. I'll link all of these books below. They are essential reading for anybody that's wants a cheat code. um probably a decade worth of decade head start into the world of business. Um explained in a phenomenally accessible way with literally your drawings.
Alex Hormozi: 是的。
Original English
Alex Hormozi: Yeah.
Host: 就在书里面。而且我认为让这些书如此成功,并成为许多创业者、初创企业家的“圣经”的原因在于……它也同样适用于那些想要在商业的不同季节中扩张的人,它就是如此极具操作性。很多书都高度哲学化,充满了各种行话之类的东西。但这几本书就像是在告诉你“要做什么”,直接教你“如何去做”。我认为归根结底这是最有价值的东西。所以,感谢你写出这些不可思议的书。在我们结束前,你还有什么正在致力于或者正在思考的事情,是大家应该了解的吗?
Original English
Host: Inside them. Um and the thing that I think has made these books so successful and become the bible for many entrepreneurs, startup entrepreneurs, but also entrepreneurs that are looking to scale through different seasons of business is is just it's so um actionable. A lot of books are like highly philosophical and there's lots of jargon and stuff. These are like this is what to do. this is what to do. And I I think ultimately that's the most valuable thing. So, thank you for writing these incredible books. Is there anything else that people should know about that you're working on or thinking about before we tune up tune out?
Alex Hormozi: 没有了,买这些书看就行了。
Original English
Alex Hormozi: No, just grab the books.
Host: 我会在下方放上所有书籍的链接。Alex,一如既往地感谢你。我喜欢和你交谈,不仅仅因为这能产出很棒的内容,还因为我能学到很多东西。仅仅是从你那里获得的灵感,我就记下了这么多笔记,我打算把它们应用到我自己的生意中去。所以,一如既往地谢谢你,我非常感激。也感谢所有观众,YouTube 现在有这种疯狂的新算法,它通过 AI 和你所有的观看行为,确切地知道你接下来想看什么视频。算法说这个视频非常适合你,对于现在正在观看的每个人,推荐都是不同的。去看看这个视频吧,我敢打赌你肯定会喜欢的。
Original English
Host: I'll link all of them below. Alex, thank you as always. Um I love talking to you, not just for because it makes great content cuz I can learn so much and I've written so many notes down here from just bouncing off you that I'm going to go apply in my own business. So, thank you as always. I really appreciate it. Thank you very YouTube have this new crazy algorithm where they know exactly what video you would like to watch next based on AI and all of your viewing behavior. And the algorithm says that this video is the perfect video for you. It's different for everybody looking right now. Check this video out and I bet you you might love it.