John Michael McGrath: Welcome everyone to the On Politics podcast. I'm John Michael McGrath.

Sabrina Nani: I'm Sabrina.

Emily Gujon Pelier: And I'm Emily Gujon Pelier.

John Michael McGrath: We're a provincial politics podcast, but today we're talking about a federal MP resigning his seat and how that has dominoes falling all the way to the opposition benches at Queens Park.

John Michael McGrath: And after nearly 15 years of construction, the Eglinton Crosstown finally has an opening date. Will the opening go smoothly or go off the rails? Unlike the Eglinton Crosstown, the Darlington refurbishment project was delivered ahead of time and under budget. How does the plan fit into Ontario's energy strategy and why did the province scrap its climate goals?

John Michael McGrath: It's February 6th, 2026. So, let's get to it. Our audience might note that Steve is not here this week. Instead, I am joined by Sabrina Nani, who writes the Queens Park Observer, a newsletter covering all things Queens Park, and Emily Gujon Pelier, who covers provincial affairs for Leo. Thank you both for being returned visitors to the podcast.

Sabrina Nani: Yeah, happy to be here. Thank you.

John Michael McGrath: Last weekend the Progressive Conservative Party had their big convention. Doug Ford had the main headline speech. Sabrina, what did you think?

Sabrina Nani: Yeah, I actually was there. The PCs decided to do a 180 and actually allow media into the room for Ford's speech. Yeah.

John Michael McGrath: Sorry, a bit of context there. We were told initially that media would not be allowed, which was a huge departure from past practice, and the Queens Park press gallery rightfully made a bit of a stink about it and they eventually the PC party retreated and eventually did allow reporters in.

Sabrina Nani: Yeah, it's a bit bizarre not to have us in there especially for the speech of the night. Like a political convention is when you want to, you know, pump up your party to kind of send the message out that everything's going well. Obviously Doug Ford had a lot to celebrate. You know, this is one year basically one year after his third majority mandate win. And the speech is usually pretty talking points heavy, so I don't think anything majorly controversial would be happening. But they did let us into the room for the dinner. And I have to say, you know, it was well attended for maybe the fact that it was in the middle of winter and not anything, you know, major happening like we saw in Calgary with Pierre Poilievre and the Federal Conservatives, you know, a big high stakes leadership review there. There were about a thousand people in the room. Folks I talked to seemed happy to be there. One fellow told me that while some parts of the convention were boring, you know, he was happy to support Doug Ford. He's really happy about his business policies and that sort of thing. One I guess maybe unplanned part of the speech and it was actually not really very noticeable but there were actually a couple of protesters that stood up and started shouting about Grassy Narrows and the mercury contamination there and you know whether there would be compensation for that. Doug Ford did not skip a beat and just kept on going. His OP detail got them right out very quickly. But I think the biggest applause that Ford got, he got a standing ovation, is when he said he was going to run again for a fourth term. I don't know if any of us are really thinking about an election yet, but you know, hopefully not one anytime soon, even though we've gotten rid of fixed election dates, but Ford said he's going to be the guy who will lead the PC party. Whether or not he'll be successful, I guess, is the big question. You mentioned the optics and there was some illusions to the concern that there would be a lot of empty seats in the room because of the federal conservative parties convention in Alberta. There was a thought that maybe all of the Ontario-based activists would be in another province. They wouldn't have enough people to fill the room. There was some hints that that was what they were really worried about that they didn't like the idea of the premier speaking to a half empty room. Seems like that wasn't the actual problem.

Sabrina Nani: Yeah, I mean it looked busy enough. Like I said, a thousand people, the tables were full. But you know, as in terms of what party insiders tell me is they don't think a thousand is maybe the strongest number and there were, you know, it was a battle of delegates, dueling delegates here. You know, Pierre Poilievre had more than double that at his convention, but again, I think a lot of people went because they wanted to have a say on his leadership. What was interesting is that I think the PCs, if I'm speculating here, might have expected more to attend because they actually kept their early bird pricing at like $299 per delegate and usually it's a little more than that. It's obviously a fundraising move too for the party. And so I think that they kept it at a lower rate just to get more people to come. You know, as a non-member observer, you got to pay a little bit more, $1,000. And I did see Liberal MPP Adel Shamji there. Very closely tailed by PC staff. He had to do his scrum outside in the cold. But again, I heard it was actually 8 degrees in Calgary, so I think for some PCs, they might have had the better weather over the weekend.

John Michael McGrath: Emily, your thoughts?

Emily Gujon Pelier: Well, I didn't get to attend, but watching the speech from afar, all I could think about was what's the next slogan going to be because, you know, it's kind of becoming a bit of a running joke at Queens Park, the protect Ontario ad nauseam. So I was thinking about that a lot, you know, and who knows by the next provincial election, Donald Trump may or may not still be in power. You know, the need to protect Ontario. Where is it going to be by then? Is the premier gonna be still just as popular as he is now? Looking forward to that new slogan for sure.

John Michael McGrath: Yeah. No, we're not going to do a your column my column segment this week, but I did have thoughts about Ford's comments and people can read them at tvo.org, but you know, one short version exactly what you were saying that Ford can say, well, I'm excited to lead our party for a fourth time, but events between now and then are going to be what decide this, right? And you know, just think of how different things are going to be if, for example, the Democratic Party does very well in this year's midterm elections and President Trump looks weaker in a year's time, right? How much sense is Protect Ontario going to make as a slogan? Just, you know, any number of things can happen between now and then. Sabrina, any final thoughts?

Sabrina Nani: Yeah, I wanted to add a little bit of gossip because there's these rumors that there have been some cabinet ministers who were actually in the room on Saturday when Ford made his speech that might be mulling over a leadership bid themselves, maybe you know the next PC captain if Doug Ford wasn't going to do it. He obviously said he's not going anywhere and so I think that was kind of pointed maybe a little bit towards them. But you're right, I don't think that it will be a slam dunk. He's riding high in the polls right now. But who knows what the political landscape is going to be. And I don't think Ford's popularity is necessarily because people really love him and what he's doing. It's because of a lack of good opposition alternatives right now. And so I think the NDP has a lot of work to do. I know we're going to talk about them a little bit later, but also the Liberals are in another leadership vacuum. And so a lot could change. You know, it will be a decade by the time or maybe more by the time the next election comes around and every government has a shelf life. It could be, you know, time for a change. Just in general for Ontarians.

John Michael McGrath: Yeah. And just to sort of draw that out a little bit more what you were saying that if he had said anything other than I intend to run again to lead our party into the next election, it would have just been the you know firing the starter pistol for the next leadership race whether it was announced or not. Right. And all of those people, those cabinet ministers who you know wake up in the morning and they see a future premier in the mirror they would start organizing. Of course they would and we've seen this happen to other political parties where a leadership challenge can derail a government even if the premier doesn't necessarily have any intention of stepping aside.

Sabrina Nani: Right.

John Michael McGrath: And so with that we are going to go to issue one. Bill Blair was until this week the federal MP for the riding of Scarborough Southwest. So why are we talking about him? Because the federal Liberals have already found their candidate to replace him and she's the provincial MPP for the same writing. The catch, she's Dolly Begum, the New Democrat and deputy leader who was until Tuesday second only to Marit Stiles in the official opposition. There's more to discuss here, but we're going to start with that. Sabrina, not a great day for Stiles, was it?

Sabrina Nani: No, this was a huge blow. And you know, NDP leader Marit Stiles said herself that she was completely blindsided by this. She was not expecting her deputy leader to defect to another party in a whole other jurisdiction. This I think this really caught her off guard. It's a riding they've held for the last three election cycles and so I think it'll be difficult for them to keep the seat only because bi-elections are a bit of a wild card, right? Turnout tends to be lower. Doug Ford has to call the bi-election by the beginning of August essentially. And so this could be a summer thing. Could mean turnout is even lower. And we do know that all parties are going to be pushing very hard for this. In terms of Marit, I think it's interesting because they're having a caucus retreat at Queens Park this week and I think she'll really put on a big show about all her MPPs are aligned behind her, you know, we're all on one side on one team. But, you know, Marit Stiles has really had some obstacles since the last election. I mean, they lost seats. They lost the share of the popular vote. The Liberals did better on that front with them. She got a really bruising 68% in her leadership review. And she, you know, had started to roll. She's shaken up a lot of her inner circle, her top staffers. She just brought in Caitlyn Pedaphor who had worked for Wab Kinew and Manitoba, you know, successful NDP leaders like Rachel Notley out west. And so I think that while she has been making these changes and maybe that's appeased a lot of the party membership, losing an MPP like this is just a huge blow for her. And I know we're going to talk about it more, but like this has really just set off like a wave of political reactions across Queens Park and even federally.

John Michael McGrath: Yeah. I mean, we've seen former MPPPs come out of the woodwork to criticize the direction of the party. You know, something that started before Stiles was leader and has continued under her. You mentioned her 68% support in the last leadership vote. That was obviously enough to spare her the fate of Bonnie Crombie who was turfed, but given that Beckham's departure, Emily, I mean, do you think that we are going to see questions about Stiles's future reopened?

Emily Gujon Pelier: Well, that 68%, you know, is a little bit more than the 57% that Bonnie Crombie had received in her last leadership vote. But to your point, there certainly will be discussions around this in the coming weeks, especially if you consider the fact that the Ontario Liberal Party despite Crombie's loss in her own writing and her resignation did increase their numbers of seats at Queen's Park and might eventually get some momentum if they elect, you know, if the members decide to choose a stronger leader.

John Michael McGrath: Right? And so speaking of the contest to be the next Ontario Liberal leader, Beckham's resignation, this is like how the dominoes have fallen in the last few days. It's been fun to watch.

Sabrina Nani: Yes, call it.

John Michael McGrath: Beckham's resignation now means there has to be a by-election in Scarborough Southwest provincially. And now we get to our second piece of news, which is that the Liberal MP for Beaches East York, writing I live in, Nate Erskine-Smith, has quickly announced that he will be running to be the Liberal candidate in Scarborough Southwest. Don't believe the party has made a decision yet whether he will just be named the candidate or whether it will be a contested nomination.

John Michael McGrath: We'll see how that goes. But he will potentially be up against the most recent candidate in that writing who was Liberal Kadira Jackson. She said in a statement the Ontario Liberal Party needs a candidate who will be a full-time candidate. This is one of the criticisms that Erskine-Smith has faced consistently over the last year that he's treating provincial politics kind of like a consolation prize, a fallback plan given that his federal ambitions have not materialized the way he might have wanted. Just geographically, I'll say, you know, Beaches East York and Scarborough Southwest, they are adjacent writings. A lot of the community events that happen in Beaches East York will tend to bleed over into Scarborough Southwest. I have to believe that voters in Scarborough Southwest, they know Erskine-Smith's face, they know his name, he's very familiar. So even in the chance that this is a contested nomination, I have to imagine he's got a pretty solid chance of both winning the Liberal nomination and potentially winning the race itself. But as you said earlier, Sabrina, I mean I suspect this is going to be a very competitive race, not least because the PC party and the government, the premier gets to choose the timing of the by-election. Sticking with Erskine-Smith and his moves here, what do you think the significance are?

Sabrina Nani: Yeah, I mean this has essentially become like a proxy war for the Liberal leadership contest, right? I've already heard from Liberals publicly and privately that they would be really upset if the party decided to make this an acclamation and not run a contested nomination. I mean, like you said, Kadira Jackson, the former candidate, just started ripping into Nate Erskine-Smith. The race isn't officially on yet, but a lot of potential leadership candidates, especially those who don't have a seat, might, you know, be unhappy if this was going to be an acclaimed nomination contest. But like you said, I think Nate would certainly be a front runner. I think he could pull it off. And, you know, if you want to be a leader of a party and do things right, then why not show everyone that you can win a nomination and then go on to potentially win the riding. But it was interesting to hear Doug Ford say he wants to turn that seat blue. The Liberals have placed third in the last three elections. So, it would be a bit of an uphill battle for them in Scarborough Southwest. But one interesting thing is I think if Nate were to be the candidate from the PCs who actually could get someone very high-profile, they had run Gary Crawford, former budget chair, Toronto counselor in Scarborough Guildwood. So I do think that they could put up a good fight and potentially take this seat from the NDP. But one interesting thing we'll just this is going to serve as like a preview if Nate is the candidate for the attack line that the PCs would have because remember when Bonnie Crombie became leader they were like so quick out of the gate with attack ads against her and that rule in politics is you know define yourself before your opponents can do it. I don't think Bonnie Crombie was very effective at that. And so I think we will see a bit of a sneak preview of you know what could happen down the line even if Nate Erskine-Smith becomes the leader and certainly he'd be a front runner in that race too but even more so if he does if he is able to win this seat and then have a seat in the house and go face to face with Doug Ford who has not faced a liberal leader in the legislature in quite some time. I mean, he's never faced a permanent leader, right? Across the house from him. Like, it's he's only ever faced interim leaders in the legis. Yeah. One guy, John Fraser.

John Michael McGrath: John Fraser.

Sabrina Nani: John Fraser about to start his third time as interim leader.

John Michael McGrath: Emily, your thoughts?

Emily Gujon Pelier: Well, I think it would be interesting to see if one, Nate Erskine-Smith can secure, you know, the ability to run in the writing. To actually win the seat and then to also become leader because as you said this would be the first time since Kathleen Wynne that we see a liberal leader actually have a seat in the house. But we also know that on the political spectrum Nate Erskine-Smith is probably the most progressive that we have seen in a long time. You know Bonnie Crombie and Steven Del Duca being coined as red Tories.

John Michael McGrath: And again, you know, advertise themselves as, you know, a break with Kathleen Wynne's progressive side of the party, bringing the party to the center, that kind of thing.

Emily Gujon Pelier: And that's what's been said that that's what the Liberal Party of Ontario needed to contrast with Kathleen Wynne, but it clearly seems to not be working. But also going back to the NDP of Ontario, I'd be curious to see what kind of impact a Nate Erskine-Smith leadership for the Liberal Party would have on the New Democrats because they're known as the more progressive party at Queen's Park. So, another hit it would might be for for the Ontario NDP and Marit Stiles leadership.

John Michael McGrath: Right? And you know, we've already seen this to a certain extent federally where, you know, Carney's success was as much just wooing NDP voters to his side as anything else, right?

Sabrina Nani: And especially now with Dolly there who I think he's kind of securing his left flank. I mean, Mark Carney has been talked about as being, you know, maybe a small C conservative and that's why it's a struggle for Pierre Poilievre. Even some delegates at the PC convention were telling me that they voted for Mark Carney and they support him too and they support Doug and it's because of you know the these kind of businessminded policies that that they're putting forward. So I do think it was even more interesting for the federal Liberals to pick up Dolly Begum for them and maybe kind of appease some of their more progressive voters. But for Nate to be leader, like you said, like I don't know who's going to try to outflank each other, the Liberals or the NDP, that might be...

John Michael McGrath: The Greens.

Sabrina Nani: Yeah.

John Michael McGrath: Can't forget about them. Yeah.

John Michael McGrath: I guess my one last thought I will add here is just the language that Erskine-Smith has been using in his announcements this week. Saying that he's all in on provincial politics. I think is very interesting. As I mentioned, he's faced some criticism in the last year as treating provincial politics as a bit of a fallback plan and he seems to be trying to address that directly saying that there is no plan B for him. He has said that he will resign his federal seat if and when the provincial by-election is called and but until then just remind people it is still a minority parliament federally and so his commitment at the moment is basically to the prime minister like I'm here to be a warm body in the liberal benches so that you know you don't lose a seat when I resign but when the province calls that by-election he will be heading to provincial politics. Just one last note on the liberal leadership for our audience. We do expect to learn what the rules for the liberal leadership contest are going to be on Monday, I believe, on February 9th. One potential candidate we had been keeping an eye on. We've mentioned her a few times in the podcast was Dr. Danielle Martin. She is now also running federally for the Liberals. She will be their candidate in University-Rosedale to succeed Christopher Freeland. When Erskine-Smith does resign his seat, there will be another federal by-election in Beaches East York. There are at least one or two more other MPs who are being speculated as potentially resigning. So, it's going to be a very busy spring for federal by-elections, I suspect. And the situation here is still very fluid. But all that said, Sabrina, do you have any inklings about what we might expect in terms of the rules or are you hearing anything about the Liberal leadership?

Sabrina Nani: Yeah. So I think the timeline is the thing that everyone is going to be looking for. I know you guys in your column have kind of made the argument that sooner is better than later. And that makes sense, right? Because you have more time for Ontarians to get to know you. You have more times to combat whatever the attack line is going to be from the PCs and even the NDP. But some Liberals I've actually talked to have been pushing for a 2027 race, which surprised me. And one insider told me that, well, if you know there's a big scandal with the RCMP investigation on the Greenbelt or Skills Development Fund, then it might start looking like Doug Ford and the PCs would not win the next election and it might attract more high-profile candidates to the Liberal leadership race. And it was like, well, what if pigs start to fly? I mean, that's a big that's a that's a big, you know, what if, especially if you're talking about, you know, pushing the race down the line. So, the last I heard was potentially September. But obviously we'll see, you know, the actual what what they actually decide next week. And I also heard that they're going to be introducing online voting, which it would be a new thing for the party. But I think would also, you know, increase participation and get more people to actually have a say in this.

John Michael McGrath: Yes. I I won't relitigate my entire sort of argument for a faster leadership process, but I will just say like, you know, in the time since Bonnie Crombie's unsuccessful leadership vote or however you want to put that, she didn't quite resign immediately, but in that time they could have already had a leadership process. They could have a new leader in place and like that leader would be in a position for example to run in the Scarborough Southwest by-election, right? They would be in a position to capitalize on these events. And I I really think that the party is getting too cute about like trying to figure out the perfect process that that that they'll control every variable and like you just can't, right? The point is to roll with the punches, so to speak, and and and actually capitalize on events as they happen. And yeah, that that I'll get off of my soap box.

Sabrina Nani: Well, it might have been, you know, Bonnie Crombie's doing too because remember in September there were questions about whether she was going to stay on as leader and then she said she's not, but she's going to stay on until we find somebody new. And now she's saying never mind, I'm resigning. So, it's possible that all that wasted time could have been filled with, you know, other avenues and opportunities for the party, but you know,

John Michael McGrath: They did not seem to be in a terrible hurry. So,

John Michael McGrath: Um, of course, with the discussion of leadership conventions, I just have to acknowledge the absent co-host here. You know, Steve, of course, is gonna be yelling at his screen watching the saying, "Say something about a delegated convention." No prospect of this. The I believe the Liberal Constitution still requires that it's a ranked ballot. So, they will whether they do in person or online voting, it will still be some form of ranked balloting. The Liberals of course held the last substantial delegated convention I think we're ever going to see in Canadian politics back in 20 god it was right before co right it was the Del Duca convention so it would have been the the January or February of 2020.

John Michael McGrath: Um and it deeply upsets Steve that we've moved away from delegated conventions. Nevertheless we have moved on and we are going to move on to issue two.

John Michael McGrath: Mark your calendars. The Eglinton Crosstown LRT has an opening date, February 8th, 2026. This comes after nearly 15 years of construction delays and cost overruns. It's a huge milestone for the line and perhaps the end of a major headache for the province or maybe the start of a new one. What else should we know here, Sabrina?

Sabrina Nani: So, the TTC, which is operating the line, is going to be doing a phased start on Sunday. Trains are running from 5:30 in the morning till around 11:00 at night. That'll be free on the first day. Buses will be running after that. It's I guess a cautious approach. And the same we saw with the Finch West LRT which has been a bit of a disaster. Not off to the greatest start there. And I you know the TTC says that the phase start was a recommendation from the inquiry into the Ottawa LRT. So potentially lessons learned, but I think when this thing is unveiled it shouldn't exactly be a ribbon cutting with a ton of fanfare. I think there's a lot of questions that still need to be answered about, you know, what took so long and cost so much. This thing has been, you know, 15 years now and over budget. Doug Ford called it a nightmare the other day and so I think that it'll be a lot more questions than anything.

John Michael McGrath: Yeah, Emily.

Emily Gujon Pelier: Well, you know what? I think it's good to know that the TTC is interested in following through with the recommendations from the public inquiry into the Ottawa LRT launch. But I'll say what people in Ottawa said for a long time and what people have been saying here about the opening date for the Eglinton Crosstown. I'll believe it when I see it. You know, because just recently, Global News reported that the Finch West LRT, was using a switch technology that was similar to the one that crippled the Ottawa LRT system and that the public inquiry had warned other transit systems not to use it. So, you'll have to excuse the O-Train on this one.

John Michael McGrath: So, two questions for both of you. Do you intend to ride it on day one?

Sabrina Nani: Nope.

Emily Gujon Pelier: Nope.

Sabrina Nani: No, I will not be riding it. But I know a lot of reporters will be and so I'm curious to see how that goes. Um, I I think I'm a little traumatized just from transit in general. Um, but yeah, I I don't have high hopes that this one will be running as smoothly as as we've seen, you know, just from past LRTs. Uh, but I I I I'm like waiting to see, you know, the big photo ops and and what comes out of it.

Emily Gujon Pelier: They say you have to be patient about launches. You know, they tell the public, oh, you know, there's going to be some obstacles along the way. That's, you know, I'm going to wait for the obstacles to be done with and then maybe I'll I'll experience the joys of...

John Michael McGrath: There was some discussion in my household this morning about like, you know, would we like bundle up the kid and, you know, it's supposed to be really cold on Sunday, like would we go and ride the Crosstown? I still haven't gotten on the Finch LRT yet. So, we have yet to make that decision. We'll see. Um you know, it just I don't know. We've talked about this this LRT so much on this podcast and it is wild that we're like I think finally reaching the end of the story. Um but one of my colleagues who works here when it is up and running he is going to be able to rely on it. At least he will be able to use it. Uh and and his answer when I asked basically the same question was like I'm not going to believe it until I have written it three times in a row.

John Michael McGrath: So, we will see how it goes. We will be back next week to talk about the early reviews, I'm sure. But for that, for now, let's move on to issue three.

John Michael McGrath: Unlike the Eglinton Crosstown, here's something that was delivered ahead of time and under budget. The Darlington refurbishment project. The project was completed 4 months ahead of time and $150 million under budget, and the reactor will be delivering power to the provincial electricity grid on February 12th. The refurbishment will also keep the reactors going until at least 2055. Emily, thoughts?

Emily Gujon Pelier: Hey, on time, under budget. Keep it up. More of that, please.

John Michael McGrath: What a time to be alive. You don't hear that often about government projects.

Sabrina Nani: Um I mean, I I thought it was interesting that the Darlington refurbishment and the Eglinton LRT had the same budget of about 13 billion each. Um and even though the nuclear refurbishment came in under budget, it was you know when you when you look at a uh 13 almost 13 billion dollars uh you know 1.5 or 150 million you know it's about 1.2%.

Sabrina Nani: Um so it doesn't seem like a drop in the bucket but still you know something that the government was obviously pumping up and this was a good news story for them.

John Michael McGrath: Yeah, I will I will say not to, you know, rain on anybody's parade, but you know, this was not a decision that was made by the Ford government. The Darlington and Bruce Power Reefer contracts were both signed by a Liberal government. One of the things that Kathleen Wynne did back before the energy file became entirely toxic for the Liberals. Um but you know they they had you know set out the the direction of refurbishing the nuclear fleet and reaffirming the centrality of nuclear power in the province. People will argue of course about how clean nuclear power really is. Doesn't directly generate greenhouse gas emissions but there are is of course nuclear waste. Nevertheless, this is 50%ish of the province's electricity mix. So, you know, you would think that this would be, something that the province would love to talk about in terms of its ambitious climate policy, except I can barely even say that without laughing. Emily, you had some reporting about the ambitions of the provincial climate policies, or perhaps the lack of ambition.

Emily Gujon Pelier: Yeah. Well, you're right. You know, the cleanliness of nuclear power is something that's often used as an argument by the provincial government every time it receives criticism or push back on its climate policies. And it is an argument that they used recently just recently to justify the decision to get rid of the legislative rules that forced them to establish climate targets and publish progress reports. I'm sure you remember JMM the Minister of Environment Todd McCarthy has said multiple times that what matters isn't targets, it's results. But we did find out through a freedom of information request that the ministry experts had actually looked into the possibility of establishing new targets and had shared those options with the minister along with some science-based facts before he decided to just get rid of them altogether. And what was interesting too is in the ministry's response to our findings is that they blamed President Trump and his attacks on our economy protect Ontario and the government is taking a hard look at unnecessary processes and you know unnecessary processes that that are holding us back. That that was the response.

John Michael McGrath: And in this case they're they're saying that the climate targets were one of those unnecessary processes.

Emily Gujon Pelier: Exactly.

John Michael McGrath: So, I think we've talked about this on the podcast before, but you know, just some of the legal context was that people will remember that Ontario was being sued by minors, young people about whether their charter rights to personal security were violated by the province's less ambitious climate targets than the ones they that they inherited from the Liberal government. The court of appeal had said yes the if if the government is going to have climate targets then those climate targets have to comply with the charter and the government seems to have taken that court decision and in essence said well in that case we're not going to have climate targets at all and and based on your reporting there there was at least some debate within the public service about potentially taking a different course.

Emily Gujon Pelier: Yeah and when you talk to you know the opposition parties the NDP the Greens obviously and environmental experts. They say that this is just another instance where the government has ignored its own experts and well as well as the science. But that at least now they're being honest about it.

John Michael McGrath: And with that, we're going to go to the mailbag.

John Michael McGrath: If you've got a burning question or insightful comment, send it along to onpolitics@tvo.org. And I'm going to give one of our hosts a chance to reach into the ceremonial mailbag here. What do we have today, Sabrina? Okay, so here's a question from Malcolm Campbell in Windsor who writes, "Excellent presentation with Liam Casey. Bring him back. More stories on the Ring of Fire. Also, how about election stories of places not in the center of Ontario's universe? Southern Ontario, Windsor, Chatham, Essex, LaSalle, Amherstburg. We too hold elections. My best Windsorite Malcolm Campbell."

John Michael McGrath: So, Malcolm's letter is of course in reference to our episode last week. We had Liam Casey from the Canadian Press on to talk about he did an excellent feature article about the Ring of Fire and the politics within the indigenous communities there. We also mentioned a few municipal races but perhaps we did not get far enough from Toronto, maybe far enough from this office for Malcolm's tastes. So yeah, let's talk about other municipalities. What are we keeping an eye on, Emily?

Emily Gujon Pelier: First of all, I want to say that I agree fully with everything that this Windsorite writer has said. Um, but for my for my part, I'll be definitely looking at Ottawa. You know, Mayor Mark Sutcliffe had received a promise from the PCs and Doug Ford that the O-Train would be updated to Metrolinx and, you know, so far we haven't seen any action on that. So, it'll be interesting to see if the voters feel like Mayor Sutcliffe has been doing enough lobbying on behalf of his city to the province on that file. And because Leo has a focus on Ottawa and Eastern Ontario issues, we'll be covering the municipal elections for the region of Prescott Russell and, you know, all the Eastern Ontario regions that have a strong Franco Ontarian presence such as Cornwall as well.

John Michael McGrath: Okay, Sabrina.

Sabrina Nani: So, I won't say Toronto. Okay.

Sabrina Nani: Um, even though I might want to, but I won't. Um,

John Michael McGrath: Stipulate that we're all gonna be watching Toronto.

Sabrina Nani: Yeah. Um, but one other race I'll be looking at is Mississauga. I I hope that's far enough for Malcolm. But, you know, I think this race is going to be interesting. We just heard Doug Ford this week giving a glowing endorsement of Carolyn Parish, the current mayor who succeeded Bonnie Crombie. You know, Ford said it was refreshing to work with her, a not so thinly veiled shot at Crombie. And there has been rumors that Crombie might be looking to to run for mayor again, which which you know would be very interesting. She obviously wasn't able to win her seat there provincially, but maybe she thinks she's got a better shot at city hall. Uh and you know, Carolyn Parish was also a former counselor when Crombie was mayor, and there was really no love lost between those two. I think it's no secret who Doug Ford and the PCs would you know be supporting and and maybe send some volunteers down to to support during the race, but I actually think that would be a really um interesting matchup to watch.

John Michael McGrath: Worth saying that an endorsement from Doug Ford does not always guarantee success. Of course, in the Merill by-election here in Toronto, he endorsed Mark Saunders, the former police chief who...

Sabrina Nani: Came in third, I think. So yeah, it was not a great performance in terms of um...

John Michael McGrath: The premier's coattails, let me put it that way. So I'm going to be looking a little bit further afield to Sudbury where there has been for like 10 years now. I last wrote about this nearly a decade ago, an argument in the city about where to build a new event center. Last time I wrote about it, there was the the fight was over building it out in the the periphery of the city. Um and the belief was that this sort of green field site was going to be the best way to generate lots of new jobs for the city. That plan fell out of favor and they decided to build a an event center more sort of centrally in the city's downtown. And so like the construction is I think underway certainly it is expected to be underway this summer. The municipal elections are in October. And yet this week there is a declared candidate, a city councilor who says he's now going to run for mayor saying he wants to stop the construction and go back to the old plan.

John Michael McGrath: Um and so you know the no debate ever happens just once in municipal politics, right? We could talk about Toronto's history of transit votes, but I will be watching that election in Sudbury to see if this particular issue gets reversed once again. Um I I will also add and and we spoke a bit about about this last week that this one of the details in this Sudbury case is that the announced candidate the city councilor says that specifically he will use strong mayor powers to stop this arena even if it is already under construction. He will just zero out its budget. And of course, mayors have strong discretionary powers over their budgets thanks to changes made by the Ford government. And you know, this is just one example of something I think we're going to see a lot of in this election season all over the provinces. Various mayoral candidates promising to do major perhaps even extraordinary things with strong mayor powers. It's interesting because I can remember very clearly that at the last municipal elections, we were do making the rounds through the municipalities and and candidates for for city council asking them will you be using the mayor their strong mayor powers and it was a selling point for them to say that we are not. So it's going to be interesting to see what the voters of Sudbury feel about that promise.

Sabrina Nani: Yeah. Yeah. No, and and I I think we might be seeing the politics of that change slightly where when it was still kind of new and perhaps scary to some people, a lot of candidates thought it was safest to say, "No, well, no, I I I'll have nothing to do with these strong mayor powers." And as voters sort of get used to the idea a bit more um perhaps, and you know, we'll see. Uh but perhaps at least some candidates are are willing to be a bit more um uh forward about uh using them.

John Michael McGrath: All right. Again, if you'd like to ask about any content on the show, please email us at onpolitics@tvo.org. And that is the On Politics podcast for this Friday, February 6th, 2026. You can follow the show wherever you get your podcast so that you get notified each time a new episode is available. And you can see the video version of the podcast on the TVO Today YouTube channel. Any feedback you have, we are always happy to hear it. Once again, write an email to onpolitics@tvo.org. Be sure to include your first name, last name, and where you're located. This week's episode was produced by Matthew Omera, editing by Colin Kish, production support by Jonathan Howell and TVO's digital media services team. Lori F is the executive producer of digital. John Ferry is vice president programming and content. Special thanks of course to our crew for making the video podcast happen. And thanks of course to my guests today for everything you contribute to the show. Thank you so much. Until next Friday. Bye-bye everyone.