黄金价格飙升与投资者避险情绪

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. The government shutdown in the US combined with speculation on the Fed cutting interest rates pushed the price of gold to roughly $4,000 an ounce today in New York trading.

美国政府关门以及对美联储降息的猜测，将纽约黄金价格推升至每盎司约4000美元。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. We heard from billionaire investor Ray Dallio. He said gold is certainly more of a safe haven than the US dollar.

我们听到了亿万富翁投资者瑞·达利欧的看法。他说，黄金肯定比美元更像是一种避风港。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Gold is a a very excellent diversifier of the portfolio. So if you would look at just from the strategic asset allocation mix perspective um you would probably have something like as the optimal mix something like 15% of your portfolio in gold because of the fact that um uh if you didn't even have a tactical because it is the one asset that does very well when the typical parts of your portfolio go down. Ray Delio there speaking earlier to Bloomberg.

黄金是投资组合的一个极佳的多元化工具。所以，从战略资产配置组合的角度来看，最佳配置可能是将15%的投资组合用于黄金，因为它是当投资组合的典型部分下跌时，表现会非常好的资产。这是瑞·达利欧早些时候对彭博社的讲话。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Today, Goldman Sachs raised its price forecast for gold in December 2026 to $4,900. Now, that prior estimate was 4,300.

今天，高盛将黄金2026年12月的价格预测上调至4900美元。之前的估计是4300美元。

黄金市场分析与美联储政策展望

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. For a closer look, I'm joined by Bill Adams. He is senior VP, also the chief economist at Com Bank. Bill, appreciate you taking time to chat with me. Give me your take on what you see happening in the gold market right now.

为了更深入地了解情况，我邀请了Bill Adams。他是Com Bank的高级副总裁兼首席经济学家。Bill，感谢您抽出宝贵时间与我交流。您如何看待当前黄金市场的动态？

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Uh I think markets are buoyant and they are searching for uh new uh diversifiers and I think also markets are anticipating uh a uh pretty significant pivot to lower interest rates from the Fed. When interest rates fall the opportunity cost of holding assets like gold that that don't uh deliver a yield goes down and so that often is a boost to the price of gold.

我认为市场是活跃的，并且在寻找新的多元化工具。同时，市场也在预期美联储将大幅转向降息。当利率下降时，持有像黄金这样不产生收益的资产的机会成本就会降低，这通常会提振金价。

关于美元“贬值”的担忧

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. We talk a lot about this debasement concern where the US dollar is concerned. Do you share that that concern that worry over debasement?

我们经常谈论美元的“贬值”问题。您是否也担忧这种贬值？

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Um I think about debasement in terms of inflation. Right. That's measuring whether the dollar is maintaining its purchasing power and I think inflation's likely to edge up a bit into the turn of the year. uh but probably stay around that 3% plus or minus zone by the CPI, maybe a bit less by the PCE index. And so that's inflation that's going to be frustrating for American consumers. It's certainly above the Fed's target, but we're not talking 5% inflation. We're definitely not talking 100% inflation. So, this is not hyperinflation. This is merely inflation that is is overtarget. You know, it's been overtarget for a while. So, uh I think it's it's fair for uh markets to start becoming impatient for when inflation will get back to the Fed's target, but I don't think that there is a debasement crisis happening in the US right now.

我认为“贬值”是以通货膨胀来衡量的。它衡量的是美元是否保持了其购买力。我认为到年底，通胀可能会略有上升，但根据CPI数据，可能仍将在3%左右波动，而根据PCE指数可能略低。这对美国消费者来说是令人沮丧的通胀。它肯定高于美联储的目标，但我们谈论的不是5%的通胀，更不是100%的通胀。所以，这不是恶性通胀，仅仅是超目标水平的通胀。它已经超目标一段时间了。因此，我认为市场开始对通胀何时能回到美联储目标感到不耐烦是合理的，但我认为目前美国并未发生贬值危机。

美联储官员的鹰鸽分歧与经济数据缺失

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. It was kind of mixed when it came to the day Fed speak. Governor Steven was saying that he expects limited tariff impact on inflation and that means that the Fed can keep easing. However, we heard from Neil Qashqari and he is the head of the Minneapolis Fed and he was warning that any drastic rate cuts would risk stoking prices. Does he have a point?

美联储官员的讲话有些混杂。斯蒂芬·库克（Governor Steven）表示，他预计关税对通胀影响有限，这意味着美联储可以继续宽松。然而，明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡利警告称，任何大幅降息都有可能加剧物价上涨。他的说法有道理吗？

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Qashqari, I think if the economy were growing robustly right now and the unemployment rate were still at 4% or under 4% then I would be more worried about wage price pressures being sparked by rate cuts. But uh given that the unemployment rate was 4.3% uh a lifetime ago in August, the last time we had a jobs report and that it it looks like the labor market from the the spotty data that we have in hand probably softened or at least stayed soft in September, I think the risks of rate cuts pushing the US into that sort of domestically driven inflation spiral seem less than they did 3 or 6 months ago.

我认为，如果经济目前正在强劲增长，失业率仍保持在4%或以下，那么我将更担心降息会引发工资-物价螺旋式上涨。但考虑到上一次就业报告（8月份）的失业率为4.3%，而根据我们现有零散的数据来看，劳动力市场在9月份可能有所走软或至少保持疲软，我认为降息将美国推入那种国内驱动的通胀螺旋的风险，似乎比3到6个月前要小。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. So you mentioned the absence of the latest jobs data as a result of the government shutdown. There's a big question mark over whether we're going to see the CPI report on the 15th of the month. Give me a sense of how you are flying blind right now without government data.

您提到了政府关门导致缺乏最新的就业数据。本月15号是否会发布CPI报告仍然是一个很大的问号。在缺乏政府数据的情况下，您目前是如何“盲目”运作的？

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. We're we're not exactly flying blind. We we certainly I I think it's more that we're um you know we're we're playing with one hand we're boxing with one hand tied behind your back to choose your analogy. Um there's uh there are data sources for the US economy. A variety of private sector uh price data and economic activity data, labor market data. They're not real substitutes for what we got from the government, but they are good complements to it. And so those data point to the economy being still in this low higher lowf fire low gear mode. Uh and uh the certainly the AI sector is going gang busters. There's investment in software and computing equipment in data centers in the electricity generation to to fuel AI. But the rest of the economy is uh is softer. And I think that probably is is what's uh continuing to happen into early October. I I think if we um go the longer we go without official data, the further we have walked with the blindfold on and so the further we may be from from where we think we are, but right now uh a week into the shutdown, I think the um the uncertainty created by it is still fairly manageable.

我们并非完全“盲目”。当然，我认为更准确的说法是，我们“一只手被绑在身后”在操作。美国经济有许多数据来源，包括各种私营部门的价格数据、经济活动数据和劳动力市场数据。它们不能完全替代政府提供的数据，但却是很好的补充。这些数据表明，经济仍处于低增长模式。当然，人工智能领域正在蓬勃发展，软件、计算设备、数据中心以及为AI提供动力的电力生产都在进行大量投资。但经济的其他部分则比较疲软。我认为这种情况可能会持续到10月初。如果我们长期缺乏官方数据，就等于戴着眼罩走得更远，离我们认为自己所处的位置就越远。但目前，在政府关门一周后，我认为它带来的不确定性仍然是可以管理的。

政府关门对消费者和经济的影响

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. So, Bill, today we had the survey from the New York Fed on consumer expectations and there wasn't a lot of movement when it came to the outlook for inflation or for that matter the intention for household spending. I'm curious given the fact that we're talking about a government shutdown. If this becomes protracted, how might the consumer be affected?

那么，Bill，今天我们看到了纽约联储关于消费者预期的调查，通胀前景和家庭支出意愿都没有太大变化。我想知道，考虑到政府正在关门，如果这种情况持续下去，消费者会受到怎样的影响？

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Most uh macroeconomic shops that do estimates of the impact of government shutdowns will will tell you that it's a a 0.1 to 0.2 uh percentage point drag on annualized real GDP growth in the quarter of the shutdown when when you have a shutdown for every week that the government is shut down. So um to put in concrete terms the uh the shutdown has lasted a week so far so far. That would shave off uh about a tenth of a percent from your forecast of annualized GDP if there hadn't been a shutdown in the current quarter. And some of that activity will probably be made up um after the shutdown ends and government employees get their salaries again, contractors get uh paid and and catch up on delayed work, etc. So I think the shutdown is likely to translate into a softer fourth quarter of the year than we would have seen otherwise in terms of real GDP. But I think it's shutdowns they don't unless there's some new big shock to the economy. I don't think the shutdown would necessarily make the difference between an expansion or a a contraction. I think this is another hiccup in the road or a bump in the road, I guess I should say, uh on the way to um a an economy that's likely to regain traction in 2026 given lower interest rates and fiscal policy that's going to turn more expansionary.

大多数进行政府关门影响评估的宏观经济分析机构会告诉你，在政府关门期间的季度，每年化实际GDP增长会受到0.1%到0.2%的拖累，这取决于政府关门持续的时间。具体来说，到目前为止，政府关门已经持续了一周，这将从您本季度未发生政府关门情况下的年化GDP预测中扣除约十分之一的百分点。而且，在政府关门结束后，政府雇员重新获得薪水，承包商获得付款并赶上延误的工作等之后，部分活动可能会得到弥补。因此，我认为政府关门可能会导致本季度GDP低于我们原本预期的水平。但除非对经济造成新的重大冲击，否则政府关门本身不太可能成为经济扩张或收缩的分水岭。我认为这只是道路上的又一个小波折，或者说是一个颠簸，最终将走向一个在2026年可能随着利率下降和财政政策转向更具扩张性而重新获得动力的经济。

债券市场对美国经济的信心

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. So, if your belief is that the economy will begin to recover given the benefit of lower rates, I'm curious about how you read the bond market right now, particularly at the longer end of the curve when we've got a 10-year 412. Where do we go from here?

那么，如果您认为经济将受益于利率下降而开始复苏，我很好奇您如何解读目前的债券市场，特别是长端收益率，10年期国债收益率为4.5%（原文为412，推测为4.5%）。我们接下来会走向何方？

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. I think the bond market is pricing in significant cuts from the Fed over the next 18 months and also pricing in the dollar retaining its purchasing power. To come back to where we started our conversation, financial markets uh despite the the runup in gold, financial markets do not price a lot of direct concern about the uh creditworthiness of the federal government or the soundness of the dollar. you would not see the 10-year uh Treasury bond trading at a 4.1% yield if there were significant concerns about that um priced into market. So, I I think that's a sign of confidence in the outlook for the US economy over the longer run.

我认为债券市场已经消化了美联储在未来18个月内大幅降息的预期，同时也预期美元将保持其购买力。回到我们对话的起点，尽管黄金价格上涨，但金融市场并未过多地反映对美国联邦政府信誉或美元稳定性的直接担忧。如果市场对这些方面存在显著担忧，10年期美国国债的收益率就不会是4.1%。因此，我认为这是对美国经济长期前景信心的体现。

股市回调的潜在影响与人工智能的颠覆性潜力

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. So we know what the performance of the equity market has been lately. Many large cap tech stocks have surged by in some cases double digits. And this has happened in pretty quick succession and there has been some concern expressed on the street that this could be a sign that valuations have become disconnected from underlying fundamentals. I know you're an economist, Bill, but I'm wondering what could happen if there is some corrective behavior in the equity market and how that may filter through to the economy's performance.

我们知道近期股市的表现如何。许多大型科技股在某些情况下已上涨了两位数。这种情况发生得相当快，街头也出现了一些担忧，认为这可能是估值脱离基本面支撑的信号。我知道您是经济学家，Bill，我想知道如果股市出现某种修正，会对经济表现产生什么影响？

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. So if we see a stock market correction, I think a 10% correction uh without other uh economic shocks is probably something that the economy can take a in stride. I think if there's a 20% sell-off and it's sustained, then we might see those more affluent consumers who've been driving consumer spending and growth of the the domestic side of the economy uh for most of the last 2 years. they could start to pull back and then we would see um some softening in the parts of the economy that that really have have been in slow growth mode but have been growing and um supporting the the uh the the the demand for labor and kind of keeping the the flywheel of the economy moving forward.

如果出现股市回调，我认为10%的回调，在没有其他经济冲击的情况下，经济应该能够轻松应对。但如果出现20%的抛售并且持续下去，那么那些在过去两年大部分时间里驱动消费支出和国内经济增长的更富裕消费者可能会开始收紧开支，届时我们将看到经济中那些本已缓慢增长但一直在支撑劳动力需求、推动经济发展的部门出现一些疲软。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. So it's a risk but I I think that it's an area where you know AI is this new technology. It looks like there will be applications of it that are um very uh productive and profitable in the future and create a lot of new innovation and advances. We can't know precisely what they are today. Um and financial markets are pricing in a lot of optimism, pricing a lot of exuberance about it. Is it uh is that exuberance um irrational or is it just exuberance and confidence about the future? I I think we'll we'll have to wait and see. But the technology itself looks like it'll it'll be uh transformational for at least sectors of the economy in years to come.

这是一个风险，但我认为人工智能这项新技术，未来可能会有很多生产力高、利润丰厚的应用，并带来大量创新和进步。我们今天无法精确知晓它们是什么。金融市场已经消化了大量的乐观情绪和对它的热情。这种热情是“非理性的”，还是仅仅是对未来的乐观和信心？我们拭目以待。但这项技术本身似乎将在未来几年内对经济的至少部分领域产生“颠覆性”影响。

人工智能在银行业及金融服务业的应用

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. And I think we have to include banking and financial services. We heard from Jamie Diamond today, the head of JP Morgan Chase. He was saying the bank is spending $2 billion a year on developing AI technology and currently the technology is saving the bank around the same amount from that annual investment. And he went on to say that this is basically the tip of the iceberg. So if you track that what that trajectory seems to be, they're going to get a lot more bang for the buck, so to speak. Would you say that banking and financial services is going to be one of the bigger beneficiaries of AI?

我认为我们必须包括银行业和金融服务业。今天我们听到了摩根大通（JP Morgan Chase）的首席执行官杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Diamond）的讲话。他说，该银行每年在开发人工智能技术上花费20亿美元，而目前这项技术每年为银行节省的成本也大致相同。他还表示，这仅仅是冰山一角。如果我们追踪这种轨迹，他们将获得“物超所值”的回报。您认为银行业和金融服务业将成为人工智能的主要受益者之一吗？

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Financial services has been a technology industry for I'd say 10 20 years now and that trend continues. uh there's so much data in financial services that that it is a really ripe ground for applications of uh technologies that uh that process data more efficiently and so I think financial services is going to be a big adopter of AI technology I think real estate as well um that's another industry where technology has a large role and I think um we'll also see AI technology applied to the more labor intensive sides of the economy like health care, like um food services and um and I think that could help to enhance productivity in the sectors that have been more resistant uh to uh the penetration of technology over the last 10 and 20 years.

可以说，金融服务业在过去10到20年里一直是一个技术驱动的行业，而且这种趋势仍在继续。金融服务业拥有海量数据，为更高效地处理数据的技术应用提供了肥沃的土壤。因此，我认为金融服务业将是人工智能技术的主要采纳者。房地产行业也是如此，这是一个技术扮演重要角色的行业。此外，我认为人工智能技术也将应用于医疗保健、餐饮服务等劳动密集型经济领域，这可能有助于提高那些在过去10到20年里对技术渗透更为抗拒的行业的生产力。

人工智能在经济预测中的应用

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. So I'm curious, Bill, as a chief economist, how are you using AI technology to help your forecasting?

那么，Bill，作为首席经济学家，您是如何利用人工智能技术来辅助您进行预测的？

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Uh great question. I I I would say we are using it gingerly. uh we are looking at a lot of AI technologies um but they we are being very careful in how we apply them so that we're not taking technology within the walls of our institution that um would create risks for uh our customers or their accounts or or how our institutions run. So we're we're looking at a lot of opportunities here but we're we're being very uh careful in our approach.

这是一个很好的问题。我可以说我们正在谨慎地使用它。我们正在研究大量的人工智能技术，但在应用时非常小心，以避免将技术引入机构内部，从而给我们的客户、他们的账户或机构的运营带来风险。所以我们正在探索许多机会，但我们采取的是一种非常谨慎的方法。

日本政治格局变化与日本央行政策

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Bill, we'll leave it there. Always a pleasure. Bill Adams, senior VP, also chief economist at Com Bank, joining us here on the Daybreak Asia podcast.

Bill，我们就此打住。非常荣幸。感谢Com Bank高级副总裁兼首席经济学家Bill Adams做客“亚洲晨曦”播客。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Welcome back to the Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Doug Krer. The new leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party in Japan, Takahuchi, has been a critic of interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan. Well, now Takahuchi is on track to become the country's next prime minister. So the question is whether BOJ Governor UEA will face a tougher political environment and whether that will be at some point reflected in BOJ monetary policy. For a closer look, I'm joined by Bloomberg's Paul Jackson. Paul covers the economies and governments of both Japan and South Korea, and he joins us now from our studios in the Japanese capital. Paul, it's always a pleasure.

欢迎回到“亚洲晨曦”播客。我是Doug Krer。日本执政的自民党新领导人高市（Takahuchi）一直批评日本央行的加息政策。现在，高市有望成为日本下一任首相。那么问题来了，日本央行行长植田（UEA）是否会面临更严峻的政治环境，以及这是否会在某个时候反映在日本央行的货币政策上？为了更深入地了解情况，我邀请了彭博社的Paul Jackson。Paul负责报道日本和韩国的经济及政府事务，他现在从我们位于日本首都的演播室加入我们。Paul，非常荣幸。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. give me your sense of where things are right now. First in the political environment before we get to BOJ policy.

请您谈谈目前的情况。首先是政治环境，然后再讨论日本央行的政策。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Uh well, we have uh the election of Say Takichi as you mentioned as leader of the ruling party. The ruling party's been in in big trouble. It's been uh bleeding voters in recent national elections. It's needing a kind of re rebranding, a restart, and they've chosen her. She's on the hawkish side uh diplomatically. On the economic side, she's very much in the abanomics mold, which means uh easy money and uh flexible uh spending. So uh this is going to be a bit of a change from the administrations we've seen recently that have been kind of moving more to uh the central ground and uh looking at uh uh you know pairing back uh the stimulus especially from uh uh Bank of Japan and and keeping spending tight. Uh but ultimately the voters are saying look we've got inflation we've got a cost of living crunch and you're not doing enough.

我们有了您提到的高市（Say Takichi）当选执政党领袖。执政党一直处于困境之中，在近期的全国选举中不断流失选票，需要进行“品牌重塑”和“重启”。他们选择了她。她在外交上持强硬立场。在经济方面，她非常符合“安倍经济学”的模式，这意味着“宽松货币”和“灵活支出”。因此，这将与我们近期看到的、更倾向于中间路线、试图削减刺激措施（尤其是日本央行的）并控制支出的政府有所不同。但归根结底，选民们表示：我们面临通胀，生活成本压力巨大，而你们做得还不够。

日本通胀与日本央行加息前景

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Well, inflation, as you and I both know, you better than me, been well above the target of 2% for the Bank of Japan. And it appeared as though, at least for a while there, markets were anticipating a rate hike this month. Is is that somewhat in doubt at this point?

通胀，正如我们俩都知道的，而且您比我更了解，已经远高于日本央行2%的目标。似乎在一段时间内，市场都在预期本月会加息。那么，现在这一点是否有些不确定了？

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Well, I think the governor of the Bank of Japan's in a very awkward spot now because I think he'd been teeing things up, kind of lining up the ducks for uh a rate hike uh later this uh this month. I mean, we've got plenty of positives. You know, the the the the economy has been growing the last five quarters, as you've mentioned. Uh the inflation, I mean, we've been above target for for three and a half years. Those uh real wages have been going down most of that time. So, in terms of, you know, orthodox policy, uh they should raise uh they should raise interest rates and and get on with it. We've even had Scott Bessant saying DOJ risks falling behind the curve. Uh but if you've got a new prime minister coming in and she's very cautious about rate hikes, do you go ahead with that uh without some initial uh consultation with the government? Uh we we spoke with one of uh Tichi's advisers uh earlier this week. I think that's Honda who's one of the architects of abominics and he said that an October rate hike was too soon.

我认为日本央行行长现在处于一个非常尴尬的境地，因为他似乎一直在为本月晚些时候的加息做铺垫。我们有很多积极因素：经济已经连续五个季度增长，通胀已经三年半高于目标。然而，实际工资在这段时间大部分时间都在下降。所以，从正统政策的角度来看，他们应该加息并继续推进。甚至有人表示，日本央行有掉队的风险。但是，如果新首相上任，并且她对加息非常谨慎，您会在未经初步与政府磋商的情况下继续推进吗？我们本周早些时候与高市的一位顾问（可能是本田，他是“安倍经济学”的建筑师之一）进行了交谈，他说10月的加息“为时过早”。

日本政府与央行关系

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. We like to think of governments and central banks as being independent of one another. Give me a sense of what that relationship is like in Japan.

我们倾向于认为政府和中央银行是相互独立的。您能否谈谈日本政府和央行之间的关系是怎样的？

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Well, the Bank of Japan got its uh independence enshrined in law uh in the late 1990s and um it is independent in in uh a c to a certain degree. I think what we saw in the early part of abonomics in 2013 was there was a joint accord between the government and the bank of Japan issued which both sides agreed to uh target certain goals and that's where the 2% inflation target uh was put in writing for the bank of Japan. Now uh the accord says it's it's down to each side to decide how it carries on with its policy goals. So, you know, you've got the independence of how you do it, but the target is pretty much agreed between the Bank of Japan and uh and the government. So, yeah, it's it's independent to, but it's to a certain degree.

日本央行在20世纪90年代末期获得了法律保障的独立性，并在一定程度上保持独立。我认为在2013年初“安倍经济学”时期，政府和日本央行发布了一份联合声明，双方同意了某些目标，并将2%的通胀目标写入了文件。现在，该声明规定，政策目标的实现方式由双方各自决定。因此，您可以独立执行政策，但目标是在日本央行和政府之间基本达成的。所以，是的，它是独立的，但仅在一定程度上。

新政府对日本央行政策及财政刺激的影响

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. So, do we need to understand now that the BOJ is likely going to be forced to consider a lot more in the way of fiscal stimulus from this new government?

那么，我们是否需要理解，日本央行很可能会被新政府迫使考虑更多的财政刺激措施？

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Uh well, I mean, I think it's going to be first of all is it's going to be a tougher political environment for for the Bank of Japan. Uh it's had uh uh pretty much free reign uh under the previous couple of administrations. Um if we do have uh more uh fiscal spending or a loosening of fiscal policy under Takayichi that's going to kind of like you know add to the inflation which uh you know actually might mean the Bank of Japan has got to raise rates uh more quickly to to kind of keep the inflation you know under control. So it's going to be very interesting dynamics to see how things go you know looking forward. But the the the the thing that you know lies right in front of IA as he starts the second half of his term as governor is can he go this month or not.

首先，这将是日本央行面临的一个更艰难的政治环境。在之前的几届政府下，它几乎获得了“自由裁量权”。如果高市政府推行更多的财政支出或放松财政政策，这将可能加剧通胀，而这反而可能意味着日本央行需要更快地加息以控制通胀。因此，未来的动态将非常有趣。但摆在植田行长（IA）任期后半段面前的关键问题是，他本月能否加息。

日元疲软与日本央行干预的可能性

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. So since Takahi's win we have seen dramatic weakness in the Japanese currency. Right now we're trading on the weak side of 152. And given the fact that Japan and the US have yet to resolve their trade deal, this is still an open question. Anytime you have a weak currency, obviously it's going to favor the exporters, but at the same time it contributes to an importing of inflation. Is there something that we need to discuss here as it relates to the currency where Takichi's win is concerned?

自从高市获胜以来，日元大幅走弱。目前交易价格在152日元兑1美元下方。鉴于日本和美国尚未解决贸易协议，这仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。疲软的货币无疑有利于出口商，但同时也会导致输入性通胀。关于高市获胜对日元的影响，是否有需要讨论的地方？

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Yeah, I mean I think the the currency could be the kind of deciding factor that makes the BOJ go later this month. It could be because if if they don't move in October, uh we've got to wait until mid December till the next meeting. So, uh you've got, you know, like two months of uh it's quite a long time if the currency's in that 150 range against the dollar. And remember that uh Japan has had to intervene multiple times in recent years to prop up uh the yen. And I would say that 160 mark uh is certainly territory that policy makers do not want to go in. And how's it going to look for Donald Trump where it's going to feed into all his views that Japan is, you know, weakening the currency to get some kind of favorable uh trade advantage. Now that might not actually be the case, but is Donald Trump going to avoid saying that? Well, I think we know the answer to that one.

是的，我认为汇率可能是促使日本央行本月采取行动的决定性因素。因为如果他们在10月不采取行动，我们就得等到12月中旬的下次会议。在美元汇率处于150区间的情况下，这可是相当长的时间。而且请记住，日本近年来曾多次干预汇市以支撑日元。政策制定者当然不希望汇率跌至160日元兑1美元。这会让特朗普如何看待？他会认为日本正在通过削弱货币来获得贸易优势。这可能并非事实，但特朗普会避免这么说吗？我想我们都知道答案。

日本股市表现与高市当选的影响

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. But at the same time, the equity market in Japan, the NIK at least, is at a record high. Does that give her anything that we can kind of call uh maybe goodwill?

但与此同时，日本股市，至少是日经指数，正处于历史高位。这是否能给她带来一些可以称之为“善意”的东西？

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Uh yeah. No, I think you know from the investors point of view they're thinking hey this probably means we end that's good for exporters exporter profits. Um so uh that helps uh stocks there. Also the idea that there could be uh more more spending uh some kind of help to consumers maybe in tax rebates or uh some kind of handout. So that that means that they'll be spending more. They're going to spend more. Well, that's going to lead to more sales, more profits. So I think there's reasons there uh for the uh stocks to be going up. The question is is whether that becomes a longerterm trend or whether we're just looking at the kind of initial knee-jerk reaction to her election. Paul, we'll leave it there. It's always a pleasure. Thanks so much.

是的，我认为从投资者的角度来看，他们会想：“嘿，这可能意味着出口商的利润会增加，这对股市有利。”此外，人们还认为可能会有更多的支出，或者会通过税收减免等方式给消费者提供一些帮助。这意味着他们会花更多的钱。这自然会导致更多的销售和利润。所以我认为股市上涨是有原因的。问题在于这是否会成为一个长期趋势，还是仅仅是对她当选的初步反应。Paul，我们就此打住。非常荣幸。非常感谢。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Bloomberg's Paul Jackson. He covers the economies and governments of Japan and South Korea joining us here on the Daybreak Asia podcast.

感谢彭博社的Paul Jackson。他报道日本和韩国的经济及政府事务，做客“亚洲晨曦”播客。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Thanks for listening to today's episode of the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Edition podcast. Each weekday we look at the stories shaping markets, finance, and geopolitics in the Asia-Pacific. You can find us on Apple, Spotify, the Bloomberg Podcast YouTube channel, or anywhere else you listen. Join us again tomorrow for insight on the market moves from Hong Kong to Singapore and Australia. I'm Doug Krer and this is Bloomberg.

感谢您收听本期彭博“亚洲晨曦”播客。我们将在工作日探讨塑造亚太地区市场、金融和地缘政治的故事。您可以在Apple、Spotify、彭博播客YouTube频道或任何您喜欢的播客平台找到我们。明天请继续收听，我们将为您带来从香港到新加坡再到澳大利亚的市场动态分析。我是Doug Krer，这里是彭博。