Anthropic的曼哈顿计划
旁白: 如果你关注科技新闻,过去几周你百分百看到过关于 Anthropic 的消息。Andrej Karpathy 加入了 Anthropic。没错,就是那个 Andrej Karpathy,OpenAI 的联合创始人,前特斯拉 AI 总监。与 Karpathy 一起加入的还有 Instagram 的前首席技术官。令人惊讶的是,梵蒂冈(The Vatican)竟然让 Anthropic 的联合创始人站在教皇身旁。除此之外,还有 Project Glasswing(透翅蝶计划),与 KPMG 的合作合同,以及那个只向少数用户发布的、地球上最强大的模型。他们完成了 650 亿美元的 H 轮融资,并提交了 S-1 上市文件,竞争的筹码正在不断增加。这有没有让你想起什么?招募全球顶尖的科学家、政府的支持与冲突、工业化动员、竞争对手的项目,以及为了某个重大时刻而展开的竞赛——这一切看起来非常像曼哈顿计划(Manhattan Project),那个在二战期间研制出世界上第一颗原子弹的美国政府最高机密项目。但有一个重要的区别:Anthropic 并没有把“原子弹”交给政府,而是用科技界最聪明的头脑、梵蒂冈的背书,以及对企业级市场的全面掌控,在脱离美国政府体系之外,建立起自己的私有、道德和制度权威。但他们为什么要这么做?为什么是现在?他们到底在为什么做准备?真正的问题是,如果不是在为比 IPO 规模大得多的事情做准备,一家初创公司为什么需要世界上最优秀的研究人员、梵蒂冈的背书、企业市场的统治地位以及属于自己的道德框架呢?在今天的《人工智能商业(The Business of AI)》节目中,让我们深入探讨。
Original English
Narrator: If you keep an eye on tech news, there is 100% chance that you saw something about Anthropic in the last few weeks. Andre Karpathy joins Anthropic. The Andre Carpathy, OpenAI co-founder, former Tesla AI director together with Carpathy, Instagram's CTO. The Vatican of all places has Anthropics co-founder stand beside the Pope. Project Glass Swing, [music] KPMG contract, the most powerful model on the planet that was only released to a handful of users, $65 billion [music] series H, the S1 filing, the stakes are rising. Doesn't this remind you of something? Recruiting the world's leading scientists, government backing and conflict, industrial mobilization, rival programs, the race to the big moment, which looks awfully similar to the Manhattan project, the top secret US government program during World War II that produced the world's first [music] atomic bomb with one important distinction. Anthropic didn't give the bomb to the government, but instead is building its own private, moral, and institutional authority outside of the US with the brightest brains of tech, the Vatican, [music] and the full grasp of the enterprise market. But why are they doing this? Why now? What are they getting ready for? The real question is why does a startup need the world's best researchers, the Vatican, enterprise dominance, and its own moral framework unless it's preparing for something much bigger than an IPO. In today's episode of the business of AI, let's dive in.
与美国军方的决裂
旁白: 2026 年 2 月 27 日,特朗普总统下令所有联邦机构立即停止使用 Anthropic 的技术栈,并将 Anthropic 定性为对国家安全构成威胁的供应链风险。这个标签以前只专门用于涉嫌间谍活动的外国组织,特别是中国公司。这一举动源于一次僵局:五角大楼要求 Anthropic 从其政府合同中移除两项限制——即禁止政府在没有人类监督的情况下使用 Claude 操控全自动武器,以及禁止使用 Claude 对美国公民进行大规模国内监控。谈判最终破裂,因为五角大楼坚持要保留像“在适当的情况下(as appropriate)”这样模棱两可的用语。我们都知道“在适当的情况下”意味着什么。它的意思是,我们会做任何我们决定要做的事情,然后事后声明,经过慎重考虑,这种做法被认为是适当的。事实上,在 9/11 事件之后,国会通过了广泛的授权,允许进行监控和反恐行动,称这些是为了保护国家安全所“必需的”。但在实际操作中,这些措辞被用来为多年来收集美国人的电话记录、电子邮件元数据和互联网流量的行为提供正当理由。Anthropic 说了“不”。就在他们拒绝之后的几个小时内,OpenAI 介入并接管了这份五角大楼的合同。这里需要强调的重点是,Anthropic 并没有被驱逐,而是自愿退出了这笔交易。他们清楚这样做的后果。他们是唯一一家能够接触到国防部数据的处于前沿水平的人工智能实验室。放弃这些绝非易事。Anthropic 的高管们知道,这可能会削减他们数十亿美元的收入。每一个被提供政府合同的其他人工智能实验室,要么选择与五角大楼合作,要么选择避免对抗。然而,他们还是这么做了。这一行动带来的后果就是收入风险,这在你准备 IPO 时是个大问题,此外还要背负被贴上国家安全威胁标签的沉重代价。正因如此,Anthropic 明白他们需要在美国政府之外寻找合法性与正当性。他们必须大幅提高企业端收入来弥补失去联邦合同的损失,而且他们必须在竞争对手利用他们的弱点之前招募到最顶尖的人才。因此,梵蒂冈的合作、KPMG 的合同、招募 Karpathy,以及欧洲的扩张计划,都是被精心策划的。
Original English
Narrator: On February 27, 2026, President Trump ordered all federal agencies to seize using Anthropic Stack immediately and designated Enthropic a supply chain risk to national security. This label was previously reserved exclusively for foreign organizations, [music] specifically Chinese companies, suspected of espionage. This followed a standoff in which the Pentagon demanded that Anthropic remove two restrictions from its government contract. The restriction that banned the government from using Claude for fully autonomous weapons without human oversight and using Claude for mass [music] domestic surveillance of American citizens. The negotiations broke down over Pentagon's insisting on keeping the ambiguous language such as as appropriate. And we all know what as appropriate means. It means we'll do whatever we decide to do and later say that after careful consideration, it was deemed appropriate. In fact, after 9/11, Congress passed broad authorizations for surveillance and counterterrorism as [music] necessary to protect national security. But in practice, those words were used to justify collection of Americans phone records, email metadata, and internet traffic for years. Anthropic said no. And as soon as they did that, within the next few hours, OpenAI steps in and takes the contract from the Pentagon. What is important here is that Anthropic was not expelled. [music] They exited the deal willingly. They knew the consequences. [music] They were the only frontier AI lab with access to Department of Defense data. And giving that up was not easy. Anthropics executives knew that it could slash their revenue by billions of dollars. Every other AI lab that was offered a government contract either cooperated with the Pentagon or avoided the confrontation. And yet [music] they did it anyway. The consequence of this action was the revenue risk, which is a big problem when you're preparing for IPO, and being labeled a national security threat. And this is how Anthropic knew that they needed to find legitimacy beyond the US government. They had to jack up enterprise revenue to offset the loss of the federal contract and they had to recruit the best talent before competitors could exploit their vulnerability. And so the Vatican partnership, KPMG, Carpathy Hire, and the European expansion were planned.
用 AI 加速市场营销
旁白: 如果你还没有使用 Claude 来更快地发布你的产品,那你就错失良机了。目前科技界最大的趋势之一是,工程开发已不再是瓶颈。一个功能可以在一周内就开发并发布。开发周期变得越来越短,对于如今的科技产品而言,也许最重要的因素就是推向市场的时间(time to market)。但是,市场营销团队从未接受过这种速度的训练。每次产品发布,你都需要发布资产、产品视频、推广创意、销售宣传材料以及用于社交媒体的视觉内容。而在 AI 优先的世界里,速度正在成为一个真正的问题。为了解决这个问题,Hicksfield 构建了一个与 Claude 集成的 MCP(模型上下文协议),以加速你的营销和创意团队,让他们能像工程团队一样快速地交付内容。要进行设置,你只需创建一个 MCP 连接和 Claude,然后就可以开始工作了。想象一下,你的团队正在发布一款新的安全产品。你已经有了产品定位和核心信息,现在是时候创建推广活动的概念了。通过 Hicksfield MCP,你可以生成各种视觉资产来支持产品发布。你可以生成适用于各种平台、任何尺寸或格式的社交媒体视频。你可以生成任何类型的高质量图片素材、用来激发团队或客户灵感的情绪板(mood boards)、具有不同剧本和拍摄角度的广告、各种类型的产品演示,以及全套的创意制作,而且这一切都无需离开 Claude。有了这个工具,你可以极大地压缩从构建产品到将其展示给客户之间的时间,这将为你提供超越竞争对手的真正优势。如果你想了解 Hexfield 的 MCP 集成是如何与 Claude 协同工作的,请查看下方的链接。现在,让我们回到 Anthropic。
Original English
Narrator: If you're not using Claude to ship your products faster, you're missing out. One of the biggest trends in tech right now is that engineering is no longer the bottleneck. A feature can be shipped in a week. Development cycles are getting shorter and shorter, and perhaps the most important factor for tech products today is time to market. But marketing teams were never trained for this kind of speed. [music] For every launch, you need launch assets, product videos, campaign creatives, sales collateral, and visuals for social media. And the speed is becoming a real problem in the AI first world. To solve [music] this, Hicksfield built an MCP integration with Claude to speed up your marketing and creative teams so they can ship as fast as engineering. To set it up, all you got to do is create an MCP connection and Claude and get to work. Imagine your team is launching a new security product. You have the positioning, the messaging, and now it's time to create campaign [music] concepts. Through Hicksfield MCP, you can generate all kinds of visual assets to support the product launch. Social media videos for [music] various platforms in any size or format. Images of any kind with highquality assets, mood [music] boards to inspire your team or your customers, ads with different scripts and filming angles, all kinds of product demos, and the full suite of creative production without leaving claude. [music] With this tool, you can really compress the time between building something and getting it in front of your customers, which gives you a very real advantage among your competitors. If you want to see how Hexfield's MCP integration works with Claude, check out the link below. And now back to Anthropic.
AI 自主预训练的野心
旁白: 2026 年 5 月 19 日,Andrej Karpathy 加入了 Anthropic 的预训练(pre-training)部门。首先,Karpathy 并没有明显理由要重返前沿实验室。他是 OpenAI 的联合创始人,并于 2024 年离开。他也是 Eureka Labs 的创始人。所以他是一个拥有学术生涯的创业者。他是一名讲师、演讲者、研究员。为什么要回到实验室呢?Karpathy 在 Anthropic 的意义在于他被聘用来领导的具体职能。预训练是构建新模型过程中最昂贵且计算量最密集的阶段。但他们并没有聘请一位世界顶级的研究员来常规地领导预训练部门,而是聘请他来组建一个团队,利用 Claude 来研究如何让预训练变得更快。这是关键所在。Karpathy 的团队将研究一个模型如何能够创造出它自己的继任者。如果你在这里做一个类比,就像曼哈顿计划建立了一条用于快速设计和大规模生产武器的流水线一样,因为曼哈顿计划不仅仅是为了制造一颗炸弹,它是为了给能够制造后续每一颗炸弹的工厂奠定基础。Karpathy 被聘请正是为了在 AI 领域做同样的事情。除了 Karpathy,他们还聘请了 Instagram 的联合创始人兼首席技术官 Mike Krieger、OpenAI 联合创始人 John Schulman、OpenAI 的安全负责人 Jan Leike,以及前 Workday 首席技术官兼谷歌云副总裁 Peter Welinder。这难道没有让你想起什么吗?美国将最优秀的物理学家、最优秀的工程师和最优秀的研究人员聚集到洛斯阿拉莫斯的一个实验室里。Anthropic 正在为 AI 做同样的事情。他们把我们这个时代的“奥本海默们”全都招致麾下。在所有这些人中,Karpathy 显得尤为突出,因为他本人并没有回到实验室的直接利益诉求。那么为什么是他呢?因为 Karpathy 已经证明了 Anthropic 想要构建的这个想法。早在 3 月份,他就在一个小模型上证明了这一点。Anthropic 现在正采用同样的研发闭环,并用其最强大的未发布模型 Mythos 将其提升到了工业级规模。他们为什么要这么做?因为在争夺前沿技术的竞赛中,不需要消耗更多计算资源的更快研发速度,就是竞争的边缘优势。OpenAI 拥有更多的计算能力和更大的消费者群体。Google DeepMind 拥有 TPU 芯片和搜索垄断地位。Nvidia 的地位不言而喻,Amazon 则拥有云服务和芯片。所以,如果算力容量、B2C 市场、硬件和搜索引擎都被垄断了,剩下的优势就只有研究质量了,具体来说,就是找到一种方法,从现有的算力中榨取尽可能多的价值。Karpathy 的使命——利用 Claude 对 AI 自身进行研究——正是 Anthropic 应对算力差距的答案。他自己的研究将得到实时验证,因为 Anthropic 有 90% 的代码都是用 Claude 编写的,而 Karpathy 的团队将把这一点推向更深远的地步:让 AI 去做 AI 研究。
Original English
Narrator: On May 19th, 2026, Andre Carpathy joins Anthropic's pre-training division. First of all, Carpathy had no obvious reason to return to a frontier lab. He was a co-founder of OpenAI and left in 2024. [music] He is a founder of Eureka Labs. So an entrepreneur with academic career. He is a lecturer, a speaker, a researcher. Why go back to the lab? The significance of Carpathy's presence anthropic is in the function that he was hired to lead. [music] Pre-training is the most expensive and compute inensive stage of building a new model. [music] But instead of having a best-in-class researcher to lead the pre-training division, they hired him to build a team that will use Claude to do research on what can make pre-training faster. This is the key. Harpathy's team is going to be researching how a model can create its own successor. [music] If you draw the parallel here, just like the Manhattan project built the pipeline for rapid design and mass production of weapons, because the Manhattan project was not just about building one bomb, it was about laying the bricks for the factory that would build every bomb after it. Carpathy was hired to do the same for AI. In addition to Carpathy, they hire Mike Kger, co-founder and CTO of Instagram. OpenAI co-founder John Schulman, OpenAI safety [music] chief Yan Leica, former CTO of Workday and VP of Google Cloud Peter Bis. Doesn't this remind you of something? The US pulling in the best physicist, the best engineers, and the best researchers into one lab in Los Alamos. [music] Anthropic is doing the same, but for AI. They're pulling in the openheimers of this generation under one roof. And of all these people, Carpathy stands out because he did not have a direct interest in going back to the lab. So why him? Because [music] Carpathy already proved the idea that Anthropic wants to build. He proved it on a small model back in March. Anthropic [music] is now taking that same research loop and cranking it up to industrial scale with their most powerful unreleased model, Mythos. And why are they doing that? Because in a frontier race, a faster research that doesn't require more compute is [music] the competitive edge. Open AAI has more compute capacity and a larger consumer base. Google DeepMind has TBU chips and search monopoly. Nvidia goes without saying, Amazon has cloud and chips. So if compute capacity, B2C market, hardware, and search engine are monopolized, what's left [music] is the quality of research and specifically finding a way to squeeze as much as you possibly can out [music] of the existing amount of compute. Carpathy's mandate using Claude to do AI research on itself is Enthropic's answer to the compute gap. [music] His own research will be validated in real time because Enthropic uses Claude to write 90% of its code [music] and Carpathy's team will push this even further. AI doing AI research.
Mythos 模型与 Glasswing 计划
旁白: Karpathy 加盟的时间,恰好在 Anthropic 宣布 H 轮融资的整整一周前,也是在提交 S-1 文件的前 13 天。多么巧合啊。为什么是现在?因为正在对一家估值达一万亿美元的 AI 实验室进行评估的机构投资者,需要确凿的证据来证明,这家实验室在没有领先算力容量或顶尖芯片的情况下,为什么仍能保持竞争力。这就是为什么招募 Karpathy 是一个明确信号,表明 Anthropic 找到了 AI 发展的下一个重大发展方向。接下来的大动作是 Project Glasswing(透翅蝶计划)。2026 年 4 月,由 50 家随后扩大到 150 家公司组成的联盟,获得了访问 Claude Mythos 预览版的受限权限。如果我们套用曼哈顿计划的类比,Claude Mythos 就是 Anthropic 的秘密武器。他们称其为迄今为止开发出的、在能力上遥遥领先的最强模型。在一篇泄露的博客文章中,该公司警告说,Mythos 目前在网络安全能力方面远远领先于任何现有的 AI 模型。这是第一次有一家大型 AI 公司发出警告,称其拥有一个因过于危险而无法直接公开发布的模型。他们之所以选择将其发布给一个联盟,是因为 Anthropic 自己也承认,该模型改变了威胁级别。他们正在把这样一个“洪水猛兽”级别的模型交给那些控制着全球 AI 基础设施的公司。他们将 Mythos 集成到了每一家主要云服务提供商的网络安全堆栈中。他们与各大公司及国家建立关系,并将自己定位为唯一一家既有能力、又具备道德框架来管理这种级别力量的前沿实验室。在 Project Glasswing 宣布的当天,网络安全概念股暴跌了大约 10%。是的,在发布此类重磅消息后,这是非常正常的市场反应。但你想一想:CrowdStrike 既是 Glasswing 的合作伙伴,同时又是一家其核心价值主张正在被自己所使用的技术所颠覆的公司。这里最重要的一点是:Project Glasswing 对于 S-1 文件的意义在于,Mythos 是一款尚未正式发布的产品。投资者们是根据 Claude 现有的收入来对一家公司进行近万亿美元的估值,而与此同时,他们手里还藏着一张王牌。Mythos 是他们的 IPO 核心资产,是世界上最强大且尚未正式发布的模型。
Original English
Narrator: Carpathy joined exactly one week before anthropic series H [music] announcement and 13 days before the S1 filing. What a coincidence. Why now? Because institutional investors evaluating an AI lab at $1 trillion need a solid proof why this lab will remain competitive when it doesn't have the leading compute capacity or leading chips. And this is why Carpathy's [music] hire is the signal that Enthropic found the next big vector of development in AI. What comes next is Project Glass Swing. April 2026, a coalition of 50 and then 150 companies receives [music] gated access to Claude Mythos preview. If we use the Manhattan Project analogy, Claude Mythos is the secret weapon of Anthropic. They call it by far the most powerful model it has ever developed. In a leaked blog post, the company warned that Mythos is currently far ahead of any AI model in cyber security capabilities. This is the first time a major AI company issued a warning that it has a model too dangerous to release. The reason they released it to a coalition is because Anthropic itself acknowledges that the model changes the threat level. They're giving a beast of a model to companies that control global AI infrastructure. They integrate Mythos in the cyber security stacks of every major cloud provider. They build relationships with companies and countries and position themselves as the only frontier lab that has both the capability and the ethical framework to manage this kind of power. The day of project glasswing announcement, [music] cyber security stocks dropped around 10%. Which yes is a very normal thing after an announcement of this kind. But just think about it. Crowd strike is simultaneously a glasswing partner and a company whose core value proposition is being disrupted by the technology it's using. [music] And here is the most important thing. The significance of project glasswing for the S1 is that Mythos is a [music] product that is not yet released. Investors are pricing a company at almost a trillion dollars based on the revenue from Claude and that is while they still have an ace [music] up their sleeve. Mythos is their IPO asset, the most powerful model in the world that is not even released yet. [music]
危险技术的披露策略
旁白: 现在,如果你认为这是第一次有一家私有公司手里攥着极其危险的技术却秘而不发,那你就错了。在 1974 年,Kodak(柯达)——没错,就是那家相机公司——在其罗切斯特总部的地下室里安装了一个核装置,那是一个大约有冰箱大小的、使用武器级浓缩铀的小型研究反应堆。不,他们并不是想炸死任何人。他们只是需要一个极其精确的中子源,这样他们就可以检测出胶片中的杂质。但市政府对此一无所知,警方不知道,消防部门也不知道。当然,它比真正的核反应堆危险性要小得多,但它也绝非儿戏。那个装置在那里运行了 33 年,直到一名离职员工将其泄露给当地报纸。区别在于,柯达从未告诉过任何人。而另一方面,Anthropic 则发表了一篇关于这件事的博客文章。这种区分正是 Project Glasswing 的核心意义所在。他们让公众知情,但他们是以内测(beta)的方式在进行管控。
Original English
Narrator: Now, if you think that this is the first time that a private company sat on something too scary to unleash, [music] it isn't. In 1974, Kodak, yes, the camera company, installed a nuclear device [music] in the basement of their Rochester headquarters, a small research reactor about the size of a fridge with [music] weaponsgrade uranium. No, they weren't trying to blow anyone up. [music] They just needed an extremely precise neutron source. so they could spot impurities in the film. But the city didn't know, the police didn't know, [music] the fire department didn't know. It was, of course, a lot less dangerous than a real reactor, but it wasn't nothing. The thing was running there for 33 years until an ex employee leaked it to the local newspaper. The difference is [music] Kodak never told anyone. Anthropic, on the other hand, published a blog post about it. That distinction is the whole point of Project Glass Wing. They are letting the public know, but they're doing it in beta.
垄断企业级分销渠道
旁白: 2026 年 5 月 19 日,就在宣布招募 Karpathy 的同一天,Anthropic 宣布与 KPMG 建立全球联盟。作为该交易的一部分,他们将 Claude 及其智能体(agents)嵌入到 KPMG 为税务客户和私募股权公司提供的平台中。让我们来剖析一下这件事。这意味着什么?这是关于分销(distribution)的布局。牢牢掌控分销渠道是科技行业的生存之本。Anthropic 选择将业务分销给专业服务机构。这非常重要。KPMG 并不是一个普通的客户或一份普通的企业合同。KPMG 本身就变成了一个分销渠道。还记得在之前的视频中,我们分析过 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 商业模式之间的差异,以及 B2B 游戏对 Anthropic 崛起的重要性吗?这正是他们这么做的原因。KPMG 拥有遍布 138 个国家的客户关系,业务涵盖税务、审计、咨询和私募股权。那么,税务、审计和私募股权代表什么呢?代表的是资金管理者。正是这一阶层将财务报告提交给企业高管(C-level execs),并建议如何使用资金。通过 KPMG,Anthropic 获得了对私营经济中极其庞大份额的间接分销权。一个为了税务合规而部署 Claude 的单一 KPMG 客户,将产生经常性收入,而且这种收入的流失率风险远远低于像我们这样的个人用户的常规订阅。向个人消费者进行销售本质上是不稳定的,但企业合同却具有极强的粘性:低流失率、高利润率且收入可预测。借用曼哈顿计划的类比,Anthropic 已经拥有了洛斯阿拉莫斯——这是研发技术的地方。而 KPMG 则是当你把洛斯阿拉莫斯变成连锁经营生意时所发生的事情——你把这个特许经营权卖给一家向顶级税务律师、审计师、首席财务官、董事会和投资委员会出售即插即用套件的商店,而这些人掌握着巨额的现金流。换句话说,Anthropic 正在向那些能够决定哪些公司存活、哪些公司倒闭,以及谁能获得资金的人出售他们的技术。
Original English
Narrator: May 19th, 2026, the same day as the Carpathy hire announcement, Entropic announced a global alliance with KPMG. As part of this deal, they embed Cloudco and agents into KPMG's platform for tax clients and private equity firms. Let's dissect this one. What does it mean? This is about the distribution. A strong grasp of the distribution is the bread and butter of tech. Anthropic [music] chooses to distribute to professional services. This is important. KPMG is not a regular client or an enterprise contract. KPMG becomes [music] its own distribution channel. Remember how in earlier videos we analyzed the difference between the business models of OpenAI and Anthropic and the importance of the B2B game for Anthropic's Rise? This is exactly why they're doing it. APMG has 138 countries worth of client relationships in tax audit advisory and private equity. And [music] what is tax audit and private equity? The money managers. This is the layer that brings financial reports to the sea level execs and recommends how to use the money. Through KPMG, Anthropy gains indirect distribution to an enormous slice of the private economy. A single KPMG client that deploys clot for tax compliance will generate recurring revenue with much lower churn risk than regular subscriptions from individuals like us. Selling to individual consumers is volatile by nature, but enterprise contracts are sticky, low churn, high margin, and predictable. Using the Manhattan project analogy, Antropic already has the Loss Alamos, where technology is built. And KPMG is what happens when you take the Los Alamos and turn it into a franchise business and you sell that franchise to a shop that sells plug-and-play kits to top tier tax lawyers, auditors, CFOs, boards, investment committees who have access to massive cash flows. In other words, Anthropic is selling to the people who decide which companies live, which companies die, and who gets the funding.
梵蒂冈的道德背书
旁白: 天哪,当我在 LinkedIn 上看到这个消息时,我真是忍不住大笑起来。2026 年 5 月 25 日,**教皇利奥(Pope Leo)**发布了通谕《Magnifica Humanitus》。简而言之,当天主教会的首脑发布一份关于人工智能的文件时,这是教会的一个历史性时刻。现在,有趣的是,这份文件是与 Christopher Olah 一起发布的,他当时就站在教皇的旁边。没有任何其他 AI 实验室的代表登上了那个演讲台。Amazon、Meta 和 Google 的代表在仪式前会见了梵蒂冈官员,但最终站在发布会台上的,是 Anthropic 的联合创始人。这其中有一个特别之处。Christopher Olah 并不是 Anthropic 最具知名度的人物。最出名的是 Dario Amodei。Olah 是一位联合创始人,也是一位专门研究神经网络内部究竟发生了什么的科学家。梵蒂冈之所以选择 Olah 而不是 Amodei,是因为他们需要一个具有科学公信力的人物。换句话说,他们不需要一个商界人士站在台上。他们需要的是科学界的人士,以获得更强的说服力。Olah 是世界上少数几个能够从第一性原理出发、令人信服地论证为什么人工智能的发展需要外部监督的人之一。他确实在演示过程中表示,像他这样的公司是在强大的商业、地缘政治和个人压力的下运作的,而这些压力可能会与社会的更广泛利益发生冲突。所以你审视一下这个局面,你看到 Anthropic 的联合创始人站在梵蒂冈的讲台上,你可能会想,为什么偏偏是梵蒂冈?因为这看起来确实像是一步怪棋。首先,美国主要信奉新教。Anthropic 是一家美国公司。但关键在于,这种合作关系与信仰无关。梵蒂冈是一个单一机构,只需一个动作,就可以同时与巴西、波兰、菲律宾和布鲁塞尔进行对话。梵蒂冈与 183 个国家建立了外交关系。当教会就人工智能发表其第一份官方声明时,而你正站在那个舞台上,你所获得的是一种与美国联邦政治平行的、无与伦比的合法性。它是不能被美国政府轻易撤销的。这在他们于 2026 年 2 月遭遇联邦禁令的背景下,显得尤为重要。想一想吧。就在特朗普称 Anthropic 是“左翼疯子”的同一个星期,教皇选择让 Anthropic 的联合创始人与他并肩站在罗马的讲台上。Anthropic 现在所处的位置是:既被美国政府封杀,又得到了天主教会最高首脑的背书。女士们先生们,这在商业策略上被称为“多元化投资(diversification)”。但抛开玩笑不谈,为什么一家 AI 实验室会与教会扯上关系?因为 ESG 使命(环境、社会和治理)。这就是原因。请听我把这部分解释完。机构投资者、养老基金、主权财富基金、大学捐赠基金,它们都有必须遵守的 ESG 投资要求和使命。一家估值近万亿美元的 AI 公司在 IPO 时,同时背负着联邦禁令的标签和梵蒂冈的道德背书,这是一种极其不同寻常的双重身份。梵蒂冈的合作伙伴关系,可以说是对“被美国政府封杀的危险公司”这一说法最有力、最可信的反向叙事。他们利用了声誉风险,并将其转化为一个具有差异化竞争优势的故事。我愿意付出任何代价,只为知道究竟是谁想出了这整套方案。但如果这真的是出自 Anthropic 的营销部门之手,那我只能向你们脱帽致敬,并献上我的膝盖。
Original English
Narrator: Good lord, this one gave me a mad chuckle when I saw it on LinkedIn. On May 25th, 2026, [music] Pope Leo releases Magnifica Humanitus. In a nutshell, it's a historical moment for the [music] church when the head of the Catholic Church releases a document about AI. [music] Now, what's interesting here is that the document was presented with Christopher Ola, who was standing beside the pope. No other AI lab was at the podium. Amazon, Meta, and Google's representatives met with the Vatican officials before the ceremony, but Anthropics co-founder was the one who stood at the presentation. Here's what's peculiar. Christopher Ola is not the most recognizable figure atropic. That would be Daario Amade. Ola is the co-founder and the scientist who studies what is actually happening inside a neural network. The Vatican's choice of Ola over Amadeay was because they needed a figure who had scientific credibility. In other words, they did not need the business person on stage. They needed the science person for better persuadability. Ola is one of the few people in the world who can credibly argue from first principles why AI development requires external oversight. And he did say during the presentation that companies like his operate under strong commercial, geopolitical and personal pressures that can be at odds with the broader interests of [music] society. So you look at the situation, you see the anthropics co-founder on stage at the Vatican and you may wonder why the Vatican of all places because it does look like a weird move. First of all, the US is mostly Protestant. Anthropic is an American company. But the thing is this partnership isn't about faith. The Vatican is a [music] single institution that can talk to Brazil, Poland, the Philippines, and Brussels in one move. The Vatican has diplomatic relations with 183 countries. When the church makes its first official statement about AI, and you're standing on that stage, you're tapping into legitimacy [music] that is perpendicular to the US federal politics. It cannot be revoked by the US administration. This is especially significant in the context of the federal ban that they got in February 2026. Think about it. The same week Trump called Anthropic left-wing nut jobs, the Pope chose Anthropic's co-founder to stand beside him in Rome. Anthropic now occupies the position of being banned by the US government and endorsed by the head of the Catholic Church. This is called diversification, ladies and gentlemen. But jokes aside, why would an AI lab have a connection with church? Because of the ESG mandates. That's why. Hear me out on this one. Institutional investors, [music] pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, university endowments [music] have ESG mandates. A near trillion dollar AI company IPO that carries both a federal ban designation [music] and Vatican moral endorsement is a very unusual duality. The Vatican partnership is arguably the most credible counternarrative to the dangerous company banned by the US government. They used the reputational risk and turned it into a differentiation story. There is nothing I wouldn't give to know who came up with this whole plan. But if this came from Anthropic's marketing [music] department, I take off my hat and bend my knee for you.
计算成本与上市后的终局
旁白: 最后,在 5 月 28 日,Anthropic 完成了 650 亿美元的 H 轮融资,投后估值达到了 9650 亿美元。这是历史上最大的一笔风险投资,它直接将 Anthropic 推上了超越 OpenAI 的宝座,使其成为美国乃至全世界最有价值的私有 AI 实验室。紧接着在 6 月 1 日,Anthropic 秘密提交了 S-1 招股说明书。Anthropic 展现出的收入增长轨迹完全支撑得起这个估值。2025 年 12 月的收入为 90 亿美元,到 2 月份达到 140 亿,2 月底达到 190 亿,4 月份为 300 亿,到了 5 月份更是飙升至 470 亿美元。Dario Amodei 曾告诉投资者,公司原计划在 2026 年实现 10 倍的增长,但实际上他们的增长速度可能使公司规模扩大 80 倍。对于 Anthropic 辉煌的 IPO 故事和惊人估值来说,唯一的一个隐患就是:计算成本的账单。同一周提交了 S-1 文件的 SpaceX 披露,Anthropic 已经承诺到 2029 年 5 月为止,每月将支付 12.5 亿美元用于购买 GPU 算力,这大约相当于每年 150 亿美元的纯算力成本。而这还没有把与 AWS 或 Google 签订的额外 GPU 使用承诺计算在内。以 470 亿美元的收入和预计 5.59 亿美元的季度营业利润来看,Anthropic 的单位经济效益(unit economics)是真实存在的。但相对于他们对基础设施的严重依赖,其利润率仍显得非常微薄。不过,即便是基于这样的财务数据,Anthropic 也许是唯一一家能够实现财务闭环、并且把账算平的前沿实验室,更是唯一一家能够做到这一点的美国实验室。对于前沿实验室而言,“单位经济效益悖论”是一个巨大的绊脚石。它们能够迅速变现,也能够达到运营盈亏平衡。但与此同时,它们又将自己锁定在了庞大的多年期资金承诺中,这使得在没有持续快速的收入增长的情况下,实现全年的真正盈利变得极其困难。这就解释了为什么 Karpathy 所领导的“利用 AI 让 AI 研究变得更快”的项目,才是这场 IPO 游戏中最大的杠杆点。因为如果 AI 辅助的预训练能够有效降低所需的计算能力,它就能扩大公司的利润率。过去 90 天里 Anthropic 走的每一步棋:联邦政府的禁令、疯狂的招募热潮、梵蒂冈的背书、KPMG 的渠道分发、Glasswing 计划、以及 S-1 的提交,所有这一切的矛头都指向同一个方向,这比单纯的一场 IPO 意义要深远得多。Anthropic 正在构建一个庞大的制度体系,用来主导和管理在 IPO 之后的新秩序。现在的问题仅仅是:他们能否成功。我们希望您觉得这期内容既有趣又发人深省。非常感谢大家提供反馈,我们《人工智能商业》的下一集再见。
Original English
Narrator: And finally, May 28th, Enthropic closes a $65 billion series H round with post money valuation of $965 [music] billion, the largest venture capital round in history that catapulted Enthropic past OpenAI to become the most valuable private AI lab in the US and in the [music] world. And on June 1st, Anthropic filed a confidential S1. The revenue trajectory that Anthropic is on [music] justifies the valuation. $9 billion in December 2025, 14 billion by February, 19 billion by the end of February, 30 billion in April, 47 billion in May. Dario Amade told investors that the company had planned for 10x growth in 2026, but instead reached a growth rate that could make it 80 times larger. There's only one problem with the valuation in the IPO story for Anthropic, the compute bill. The Space X S1 filed the same week and they reveals that Enthropic has committed to pay $1.25 billion per month for GPU compute through May 2029, which is approximately $15 billion per year in raw compute costs. That's without counting additional GPU commitments with AWS or Google. At $47 billion revenue with a projected 559 million quarterly operating profit, Anthropic's unit economics are real. But the margin is [music] thin relative to the infrastructure dependency. But even with these numbers, Anthropic is perhaps the only frontier lab, the only American lab where the math is mathing. [music] The unit economics paradox for Frontier Labs is a stumbling block. They monetize quickly and they reach operating break even. And at the same time, they're locking themselves into enormous multi-year commitments that make fullear profitability very difficult without continuous rapid revenue growth. Which is why [music] Karpathy's research using AI to do AI research faster [music] is the biggest leverage in the IPO game because if AI assisted pre-training can reduce the required compute capacity, it will expand the margins. Every single move in the last 90 days, the federal ban, the hiring spree, the Vatican, KPMG, Glass Wing, the S1, all point in the same direction, and it's much bigger than an IPO. Anthropic is building the institution that governs what comes after the IPO. The question is whether they will succeed. We hope you found this interesting and enlightening. We would appreciate your feedback and we'll see you in the next episode of the business of AI.
📌 文中提及的人物和组织
公司/组织: Anthropic, OpenAI, KPMG, The Vatican, CrowdStrike, SpaceX
产品/模型: Claude, Claude Mythos
媒体/书籍: Magnifica Humanitus