>>: 我问他，他们进入金融界是为了改变世界吗？如果是在20世纪70年代，我会告诉你，四个人中会有一个对我说他们进入金融界是为了改变世界。而现在当我向各家金融机构的新员工演讲时，也许只有1%的人进入金融界是为了改变世界。
英文原文
I asked him, did they go into finance to change the world? And if this was the 1970s, I would tell you that one in four would have told me they went into finance to change the world. When I speak to the incoming classes at various financial institutions, maybe 1% go into finance to change the world.高收益债券市场的缘起与信用认知的颠覆
>>: 大家好。我是挪威主权财富基金的首席执行官尼古拉·唐根（Nicolai Tangen）。今天我的客人改变了世界筹集资金的方式。迈克·米尔肯几乎从零开始建立了高收益债券市场，在其他人只看到风险的地方看到了价值。如今，整个行业都因它而存在：有线电视、移动通信、媒体，金融界的许多顶尖人物都是向他学习这门业务的。他还战胜了曾被告知会夺走他生命的癌症。他向医学研究和教育捐赠了大笔财富，去年他在华盛顿开设了一个致力于美国梦的中心。迈克，热烈欢迎你。
英文原文
>> Hi everybody. I'm Nicolola Tangan, the CEO of the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund. And today my guest changed how the world raises money. Mike Milkin built the high yield bond market always from nothing, seeing value where other people saw only risk. And today whole industries exist because of it. cable, mobile, media, and many of the biggest names in finance learned the business from him. He also survived a cancer he was told would kill him. He's given away fortunes to medical research and education, and last year he opened a center in Washington devoted to the American dream. Mike, a warm welcome.>>: 谢谢你。很高兴见到你。
英文原文
>> Thank you. Great to see you.>>: 迈克，你最初是如何接触到高收益债券市场的？
英文原文
>> Now, Mike, how did you come across the high yield market?>>: 嗯，这并不是偶然。1965年8月11日，美国洛杉矶发生了一起事件，后来被称为瓦茨暴动（Watts riots）。当时我刚从伯克利分校放假回到洛杉矶，第二天我就赶过去想弄清楚到底发生了什么。在那里我遇到了一位年轻的非裔美国男子，他告诉我，仅仅因为他的肤色，他就无法获得资本。
英文原文
>> Well, it wasn't by accident. There is an event that occurred on August 11th, 1965 in America in Los Angeles called became called the Watts riots. And I was back from college at Berkeley and I was in Los Angeles and I went down the next day to try to figure out what was going on. And I met a young uh African-American man who told me he wouldn't have access to capital because of the color of his skin.>>: 你那时多大？
英文原文
>> How old were you then?>>: 我当时19岁。我真的无法理解为什么会有人因为肤色而被剥夺获得资本的机会。与那个男人的相遇改变了我的人生，我回到伯克利，开始研究长达数百年的信用历史。我发现人们关于信用所说的一切都是错的。
英文原文
>> I was 19 years old and I couldn't really understand why people could possibly be denied access to capital because of the color of their skin. Uh but meeting this one man changed my life and I went back to Berkeley and I began to study credit for hundreds of years and what I discovered was that every one thing that people said about credit was wrong.>>: 他们当时是怎么说的？他们认为主权国家是最好的信用主体。其次是个人。然后是企业，而且他们认为那些非“投资级”的企业风险太大。但是世界上99.99%的企业都不是投资级的。
英文原文
>> And what did they say at the time? They thought countries were the best credit. And then they thought individuals were the next best credit. And then they thought companies and they thought companies that weren't quote investment grade were too risky. But 99.99% of every company in the world is not investment grade.>>: 那么事实是什么？真相是一项已经完成的研究。我可能是那项研究发表时唯一查阅过它的人。作为伯克利的学生，我有途径获取它，或者任何其他人都可以去查阅这些书籍。它表明，在20世纪30年代的全球大萧条期间，你买入的债券质量越低，回报率反而越高。换句话说，风险溢价太高了。因此在经风险调整后，你获得了更高的回报率。它还表明，历史上最差的信用主体是主权债务。
英文原文
>> So what did what did it mean? What um what was the truth? The truth was there was research that was done. I might have been the only one that ever reviewed that research when it came out. And as a student at Berkeley, I had access to it or anyone else could have searched these books. And it showed that during the worldwide depression of the 30s that the highest rate of return was the lower quality of the debt you bought. In other words, the risk premiums were too large. So adjusted for risk, you got a higher rate of return. It also showed that the worst credit in history was sovereign debt.>>: 主权债当时被认为是最好的信用。在那个年代，如果你购买主权债务，甚至都不需要提取准备金，因为大家认为它是没有风险的。不管实际情况如何，大多数国家都被评为AAA级。委内瑞拉在失业率达到30%的情况下仍被评为AAA级。所以，无论是财政部长还是美联储的人员，他们所陈述的内容在实际上都是不准确的。
英文原文
>> That was considered the best credit. And back then, you didn't even have to put up reserves if you bought sovereign debt because it was considered riskless. And most countries were rated AAA regardless of what the facts were. Venezuela was rated AAA with 30% unemployment. So whether it was the Secretary of the Treasury or whether it was a person at the Fed, they were saying things that were just factually not accurate.德雷塞尔时期的说服策略与1974年市场转折
>>: 迈克，那你后来进入德雷塞尔（Drexel）之后，是用这种认知做了什么？
英文原文
>> So Mike, when you then started at Drexel, what did you do with this wisdom?>>: 嗯，我一开始是做顾问。当人们深信自己是正确的时候，你该怎么去改变他们的看法？通常来说——无论我是在教育、医疗保健还是其他领域工作——你都不能通过提高嗓门来改变别人的看法。我的一位朋友很久以前出版了一本书，叫《事实》（Factfulness）。事实上，他在该书由女儿和女婿出版前不久去世了。但他开发了一种提问的技术：提出简单的多项选择题，你不需要通过举手或交卷来感到尴尬，但当答案公布时，你可以自己发现答案。然后人们就会开始纳闷：既然事实并非如此，我为什么会那样相信？所以多年来，我们可能制作了10万张幻灯片和问题，提供给不同的人，让他们自我发现。但回到20世纪70年代初，这需要大量的拜访出行以及与我自己的公司交流。我准备了一项测试：把他们推荐买入的所有股票和他们推荐卖出的所有股票都拿了出来。在70年代初，研究报告是允许给出卖出建议的，而今天不予推荐卖出的压力很大。然后他们发现，他们推荐买入的公司所发行的债务是非投资级的，而他们推荐卖出的公司所发行的债务却是投资级的。然后我悄悄地提醒他们，债务的受偿顺序优于股权。如果他们看好这些公司的股权，也许他们应该看看它们的债务。因此，在四到五年的时间里，我们做出了很多努力来让人们以不同的方式看待世界。但发生的一件重大事件——我经常称之为大萧条以来金融市场最重要的时期——发生在1974年：当时股市下跌了50%，利率翻了一倍。银行被施加了信贷管制，不得向新客户放贷。因此，在那个时期，企业认识到他们不能依赖金融机构本身的健康状况来维持自己的业务运转。当我们走出那个时期时，从1974年底到1976年，你购买无担保纯非投资级债务获得了100%的收益。所以那些原本不相信的人，因为那个时期发生的事情而猛然醒悟。
英文原文
>> Well, I first started as a consultant. Um, how do you change people's views when they know they're just right? And you generally don't, whether I'm working in education or health care or other issues, uh, you don't change your views by raising your voice. And there was a book published by a friend of mine a long time ago called Factfulness. and he in fact passed away uh shortly before the book was published by his daughter and son-in-law. But he developed this technique that he would ask questions and so simple multiplechoice questions and you wouldn't be embarrassed by raising your hand or turning in your answers, but you could discover the answers yourself when they were made available. and now start to wonder why do you believe this when the facts are different? And so over the years we've probably prepared a 100,000 slides and questions to give to people on different things and let them have selfdiscovery. But back there in the early 1970s, uh, it required a great deal of travel visits with my own firm. I prepared a test where I took all the stocks they were recommending and all the stocks they were recommending selling. Back in the early 70s, you were allowed to put out sell recommendations. Today, there's a lot of pressure of not putting them out. So, and they discovered that the debt of companies they were recommending to buy was not investment grade and the debt of companies they were recommending to sell was investment grade. And then I quietly reminded them that the debt is senior to the equity. So if they like the equity of these companies, maybe they should look at the debt. So there were a number of efforts over a four to five year period of time uh to get people to see the world differently. But the major event that occurred which I often refer to as the most important period uh since the depression for financial markets occurred in 1974 when the stock market went down 50% interest rates doubled. There were credit controls that you could not loan money to new customers placed on the banks. And so it was a period of time where companies decided that they couldn't be dependent on financial institutions themselves that their health in order to run their business. And as we came out of this period of time, you made 100% on your money buying straight non-investment grade debt by the end of 74 through 76. So those that didn't believe uh now had a wakeup call because of what occurred during this period of time.高收益债券对产业的塑造与资本倍增公式
>>: 你们最早发行的一些高收益债券有哪些？
英文原文
>> What were some of the first uh issuance of uh high yield bonds that you did?>>: 嗯，在50年代和60年代，大多数高收益债券实际上是由保险公司持有的。他们的内部评级大幅高于市场水平。当我们在70年代中期开始发行债务时，许多保险公司会打电话给我，要求我不要这样做，因为某只在他们账面上标为BBB级或A级的债券，会被评为BB级或B级。现在，他们原先认为是投资级的东西不再是投资级了。但是在70年代，重点是能源行业，也是生物技术的起步期。最终这促成了有线电视行业的建立。住宅建筑行业经历了繁荣与萧条的周期。当利率上升时，他们就会陷入困境；当利率下降时，他们就会繁荣起来。因此，向住宅建筑商注入永久性资本使他们得以生存。其他行业还有酒店业，整个博彩赌场行业也是这样诞生的。在70年代初，我自己的公司甚至不允许我为这个行业筹集资金。到了80年代末，全美第二受尊敬的公司是一家名为幻景（Mirage）的赌场公司。还有为电信行业提供资金的方面。在70年代，由于AT&T是当时全球最大的公司、评级为AAA且支付的费用最多，市场上存在着巨大的同行压力，要求不要为新业务提供资金。因此，如果你为MCI提供融资，你就会被AT&T切断业务往来。但最终我说服了公司。人们现在没有意识到，在20世纪70年代，打一分钟长途电话要花10美元。MCI的成功以及对他们的融资将这个成本降低了75%。对于今天的很多年轻人来说，用WhatsApp是免费的。所以有线电视、电信、蜂窝移动网络所发生的巨大变化，在60年代或70年代初，这些公司没有一家能获得融资。这一切真正始于70年代中期。纵观美国，在20世纪的最后30年里，非投资级公司创造了超过6000万个工作岗位，而投资级公司创造的就业岗位净减少了400万个。如果你想创造繁荣——我在1965年9月写下了这个简短的公式——其核心本质是：资本准入与金融技术，充当了世界最大资产（人力资本）、世界第二大资产（社会资本）以及资产负债表上那些资产的倍增器。但是，如果你无法获得资本，所有关于移动通信可能是什么样、或者AI可能是什么样的想法，都需要大量的投资，都需要有人相信未来并相信这些想法。
英文原文
>> Well, most high yield bonds were really owned by insurance companies in the 50s and 60s. Their ratings, their internal ratings were substantially higher than the market. And as we started issuing debt in the mid 1970s, many of the insurance companies would call me up and ask me not to do this because a bond would be rated double B or single B that they had as tripleB or single A on their books. And now what they considered investment grade was not. But in the 70s it was energy industry. It was the beginning of biotech. Uh eventually that led to creation of the cable industry. Uh home building went through booms and bust. So as rates went up, they'd get in trouble. As rates went down, they would boom. And so putting permanent capital into homebuilders allowed them to exist. other industries uh were the hospitality industry, the whole casino industry was born. Uh in the early 70s, my own firm would not allow me uh to raise money for this industry. By the late 80s, the second most admired company in America was a company called Mirage, a casino. The element of providing money to telecommunications In the 70s there was enormous peer pressure not to provide capital to new businesses uh because AT&T the largest company in the world at the time and which was rated AAA was also the largest payer of fees. And so as a result, if you financed an MCI, you would be cut off by AT&T. But eventually I convinced the firm. And people don't realize a longd distanceance phone call in the 1970s was $10 a minute. MCI's success and financing them reduced that by 75%. And for most young people today, if they're on WhatsApp, it's free. So the dramatic change in what occurred in cable, telecommunications, cellular, none of these companies would have been receiving financing uh in the 60s or early 70s. And so it really began in the mid70s. And when you look if I look at the United States uh more than 60 million jobs were created in the last 30 years of the 20th century by non-investment grade companies and minus4 million jobs were created by investment grade companies. And so if you want to create prosperity and I wrote down this little formula in September of 65 which essentially was that access to capital financial technology served as a multiplier on the world's largest asset human capital world's second largest asset social capital and world's asset that you find on the balance sheet ial assets. But if you didn't have access, all those ideas of what mobile could be or what AI could be all require significant investment and someone believing in the future and those ideas.人力资本与企业家的价值
>>: 你当时支持了后来成为传奇的创始人，比如马龙（Malone）、特纳（Turner）、默多克（Murdoch）等人。这些人有什么共同点？
英文原文
>> Now you backed um founders who subsequently became legends, you know, Malone, Turner, Murdoch and so on. What what do these people have have in common?>>: 我的观点是，公司最重要的资产是人，我认为人们过去迷恋于资产负债表。所以关键在于理解个人的远见和他们的激情。我曾与加里·贝克尔（Gary Becker）共度过时光，他因提出人力资本概念而获得了诺贝尔奖。据估计，仅以美国为例，人力资本和社会资本的价值就超过2000万亿美元。该国的金融资产大约在300万亿美元左右。因此，人力资本至少是所有金融资产价值的六到七倍。美国的GDP大约是30万亿美元，所以人力资本大约是它的60倍。因此，无论是我在70年代初开始的医学研究工作还是教育领域，我都始终专注于个体，在为企业融资时也是如此。
英文原文
My view was the most important asset at the company was the people and I think people were infatuated by balance sheets. So understanding the vision of an individual their passion. So I spent time with a man named Gary Becker who won a Nobel Prize for the concept of human capital. It is estimated if I took just the United States the value of human and social capital is more than 2,000 trillion. The financial assets of the country are around 300 trillion. So the human capital is six or seven times minimum what all the financial assets are worth. The GDP of America is around 30 trillion. So the human capital is say 60 times and so whether it's the work in medical research that I began in the early 70s or education I always focused on the individuals and the same thing in financing companies.资产证券化与分散风险
>>: 你的想法传播得远远超出了你的起步领域。现在版税收益流、音乐版权、棒球队等所有这类资产都以这种方式融资。自那以后的发展中，最让你惊讶的是什么？
英文原文
>> The idea that you have um have traveled far beyond where you started. So now royalty stream, music rights, baseball teams, all these kind of things are financed in this way. What has surprised you most with the development since?>>: 我不确定是否有任何事情让我感到惊讶。你要记得，曾有数千人与我一起工作，他们后来分散到了数百家金融机构。我们共同度过了那些年，他们和我们一起拿到了他们的博士学位。但我在1960年代确立了六个目标，其中之一就是通过证券化来分散风险。很少有获得汽车贷款、住房按揭贷款或信用卡的人真正明白，他们的借款利率实际上要便宜得多，因为所有这些都被与成百、成千或数百万笔其他贷款一起打包证券化，风险被分散了。因此，一个投资组合——无论是债券、信用卡贷款、汽车贷款、住房贷款还是运动球队——都能通过地理分布以及不同人群间的分布来降低风险。如果你根本不知道被证券化的按揭贷款借给了谁，你就很难在发放按揭贷款时进行歧视。因此，它消除了证券中的大量偏见。如果要谈到体育球队，在这里让我感到惊讶的是：今天传统媒体、电视、有线电视为了生存，高度依赖体育赛事。如今的历史传统媒体面临风险。如果这些体育赛事或其他大型活动从我们所认为的传统电视中移走，他们的收视率将会暴跌，他们能否生存都将成为问题。你可能注意到，在美国少数拥有高收视率的盛事之一是奥斯卡金像奖。从2029年开始，YouTube将转播奥斯卡金像奖。因此，去理解这些发生的巨大变化：新行业总是被认为风险巨大，而人们往往低估了过去那些行业的风险。
英文原文
I I don't not sure anything has surprised me. You know, you have to remember there were thousands of people that worked with me who have spread out to hundreds of financial firms. Uh we spent all those years together. uh they got their PhDs uh with us together. Uh but I I really had six goals which I set out in the 1960s. Um one of those was securization to spread risk. And so very few people who get a car loan or a mortgage or credit cards really understand that their rate that they're borrowing at is actually substantially cheaper because all of these are securitized with hundreds or thousands or millions of others and the risk is spread. And so a portfolio uh whether it was bonds or credit card loans or auto loans or home loans uh or athletic teams uh uh reduces risk through geographic distribution through uh distribution among different types of people. It's hard to discriminate in making a mortgage loan if you don't even know who you made a mortgage to that's been securitized. And so it it takes out a lot of the bias in securities. I would say if you want to talk about sports teams, what surprised me here is in order to survive traditional media today, television, cable is highly dependent on sports. There is risk to historical media today. If those sports or other events are taken off what we think of as traditional television, their viewership will plummet and they will become whether they can survive or not is in question. And so you might notice that one of those few events in the United States that has high viewership is something called the Academy Awards. Well, beginning in 2029, YouTube will be broadcasting the Academy Awards. And so understanding these dramatic changes that have occurred uh re it's always new industries are always considered to be risky and industries of the past people underestimate the risk.人才选拔标准与进入金融业的动机转变
>>: 德雷塞尔当时非常成功，而在德雷塞尔之后，许多与你共事的人继续创办了阿波罗（Apollo），有的成为了高盛的CEO等。那么，他们从德雷塞尔汲取了什么让他们如此成功的东西？
英文原文
>> Yeah. Um Mike um Draxel was very successful and after Draxl a lot of the people who worked there with you have gone on to startup Apollo RS uh is the CEO of Goldman's and so on. So what was it that they took away from Drexel that made them so successful?>>: 我认为是一种首先为人和想法提供融资的信念。你对他们有信心吗？你对这个想法有信心吗？然后要意识到你的决策能够带来改变。你可以看到，阿波罗最近在向软银借款以支持其当前的AI投资方面处于领先地位。因此，金融对社会、对创造就业至关重要，这里面存在着纽带与信念。今天谁决定借钱给微软，其实并不能带来什么改变，因为成千上万的机构都愿意借钱给微软。但如果是面对新想法呢？面对企业家呢？因此我认为……
英文原文
>> I think in a belief of first financing the people and the idea. Do you have confidence in them? Do you have confidence in the idea? Then realizing that your decision makes a difference. So you can see here Apollo has been a leader recently in loaning money to SoftBank for their AI investments today. And so finance is important to society to creating jobs. And so there's a link and a belief. Whoever makes a decision today to loan ma money to say Microsoft doesn't really make a difference. There's tens of thousands of organizations that'll loan money to Microsoft. But what about the new idea? What about the entrepreneur? And so I think>>: 但是你当年招收的是谁？你招收的是什么样的人？你招聘时在寻找什么特质？
英文原文
>> but who did you hire? What kind of people what kind of people did you hire? What were you looking for when you hired?>>: 这很有意思。我问过他们，他们进入金融界是为了改变世界吗？所以当你问我这个问题时，这是我今天真正在反思的事情。如果是在20世纪70年代，我会告诉你，四个人中会有一个告诉我他们进入金融界是为了改变世界。当我向各家金融机构的新员工演讲时，也许只有1%的人进入金融界是为了改变世界。
英文原文
>> It was interesting. I asked him, did they go into finance to change the world? And so when you ask me that question, it's something I really reflect on today. And if this was the 1970s, I would tell you that one in four would have told me they went into finance to change the world. When I speak to the incoming classes at various financial institutions, maybe 1% go into finance to change the world. So>>: 你认为为什么发生了这么大的变化？
英文原文
>> why has he changed so much you think?>>: 嗯，过去几年金融机构和资金管理机构估值的巨大增长，以及该领域从业人员的薪酬水平。丰厚的报酬促使那些原本可能并不想通过金融来改变世界、而是想通过金融赚钱的人涌入这个行业。我可能参与了3000家公司的融资，但只有一位CEO曾告诉我他是为了钱。我认为他们中的许多人可能确实是为了钱，但如果他们告诉我他们是为了钱，我就不会向他提供资本。
英文原文
Well, the enormous increase in valuations of financial institutions and money managers over the last few years and the payment of people working in this field. The considerable compensation has caused people to gravitate to work in finance who didn't maybe want to work in finance to change the world but wanted to go into finance to make money. I maybe was involved with the financing of 3,000 companies. Only one CEO ever told me he was in it for the money. I think many of them might have been, but if they told me they were in it for the money, I wouldn't have provided capital to him.>>: 你当年是为了钱吗？
英文原文
>> Were you in it for the money?>>: 不，我是因为遇到了那个年轻的非裔美国男子——他告诉我他因为肤色而无法获得资本——以及其他少数族裔或女性。很有意思的是，当我为第一位收购标普500指数成分股公司的女性提供融资时，那已经是80年代中期了。我收到了仇恨信件：“你怎么能做出这种事？”那是在80年代中期的美国。而在80年代中期，当我为第一位拥有10亿美元的非裔美国人雷杰·刘易斯（Reggie Lewis）提供融资时，我收到了死亡威胁。所以人们没有意识到40年前的世界从这个角度看是什么样子的。我的看法是，如果缺乏不仅为蜂窝移动通信等提供资本、特别是为医学研究和医疗保健提供资本的人，我的孙辈们就不会有美好的生活。人们经常谈论经济学，但如果你深入研究，世界上超过50%的经济增长来自于医疗保健和公共卫生的进步，超过50%。
英文原文
No, I was in it because of this young African-American man I met who told me he wouldn't have access to capital because of the color of his skin or other minorities or women. You know, it's interesting. When I financed the first woman to buy an S&P 500 company, it was now the mid 1980s. I got hate mail. How could you possibly do that? mid80s in America and when I financed Rege Lewis the first African-American with $1 billion in the mid80s I got death threats. So people don't realize what the world was like 40 years ago from that standpoint. And so my view was there's not going to be a good life for my grandchildren if there aren't people providing capital not only for cellular or mobile etc but particularly for medical research and health care. People talk a lot about economics, but if you really study, more than 50% of all economic growth in the world has come from advances in health care and public health, more than 50%.当前信贷市场风险与久期匹配
>>: 当你审视当今的金融市场时，审视当今的信贷市场时，你有什么看法？
英文原文
>> When you look at financial markets today, what do you what do you think when you look at the credit market today?>>: 我认为金融机构在向社会解释其角色方面做得并不是很好。由于价格的急剧上涨和负担能力的下降，如今大部分人对金融体系或身处其中的人产生质疑。我记得在金融危机期间，高盛的首席执行官公开宣称：“我们难道不是在做上帝的工作吗？这难道不是我们提供融资的职责吗？”然后他遭到了攻击。同样的事情发生在1994年，与我关系密切的安进公司（Amgen）的首席执行官宣称：“我们难道不是在做上帝的工作吗？”当时该公司从全美最受尊敬的行业沦为因药品定价过高而被指责的对象。
英文原文
I don't believe financial institutions have done a really good job of explaining their role in society and due to the tremendous increase in prices and affordability the majority of the people you know today question the financial system or the people in that system. I remember during the financial crisis that the CEO of Goldman announced, "Aren't we doing God's work? Isn't this our role to finance?" And he was attacked. The same thing occurred in 1994 when the CEO of Amjen, a company I'm close to, announced, "Aren't we doing God's work?" when you went from the most admired industry in the country to a piranha charging too much for your pharmaceutical products.>>: 是的。
英文原文
>> Yeah.>>: 所以我认为今天学到的教训之一是，人们确实需要更好地理解金融素养，更好地理解金融的作用。我觉得今天大多数公众并不理解资本准入的重要性，不理解为新业务和新想法提供融资的重要性，特别是在科学和生物科学领域，或者不理解你所领导的基金对你们国家的未来和人民有多么重要。
英文原文
>> So I think one of the lessons that I had learned today was you really needed to have a better understanding of financial literacy and a better understanding of the role. And I feel today the majority of the population does not understand the importance of access to capital of people financing new businesses and new ideas particularly in science and bioscience or just how important the fund that you're ahead of is to your country's future and to the people.>>: 当你看到正在显现一些亏损的私人信贷、发行更多债务的科技公司、政府债务以及非常高的利率，你如何解读这套组合？
英文原文
When you look at the combination of private credit which which where you see some losses coming up, technology companies which are issuing more debt, uh government uh debt, uh you know, very high rates. How do you interpret this cocktail?>>: 嗯，对金融机构而言，私人信贷与公开市场的非投资级债券其实没有太大区别。这有点倒退回50年代和60年代保险公司是最大贷款机构的时期。其积极的一面在于，95%到99%的投资者都是长期投资者。大家目前看到的那些主要资产管理公司的赎回中，个人投资者进行按季度赎回的比例在其资产中非常小，可能只有1%。但这里最核心的问题是，要把资金交到拥有长期承诺的长期投资者手中，比如养老基金、保险公司。所以，这在某种程度上倒退回了60年代和70年代初的情况。而且这里存在信用风险，这也是为什么存在利差的原因，而历史上的信用风险一直非常低。如果看看2007年到2010年的金融危机，那段时期的主要损失是发生在投资级证券上，而不是非投资级证券，特别是那些被认为属于AAA、AA或A级但实际并非如此、且蕴含风险的房地产抵押证券。因此，所有形式的资产都存在风险，关键在于你是否为信用风险建立了应有的准备金。所以对我来说，对于资产管理者而言，私人信贷与公开信贷其实没有区别。如果你做私人信贷，他们可以向你收取更高的资产管理费，可能是三到五倍那么多，所以他们有动力。金融市场上最大的风险之一是期限错配与投资错配。在美国，我们曾拥有两家出色的金融机构：一家是硅谷银行（Silicon Valley Bank），另一家是第一共和银行（Republic Bank），它们都在特定市场找到了位置。这两家银行的倒闭并不是因为它们资产在信用意义上的价值，而是因为利率的大幅上升；它们持有美国政府证券，但使用隔夜或短期负债来为其融资。因此，它们遭受了巨额亏损。像嘉信理财（Schwab）这样优秀的公司，其股价也下跌了40%，因为市场发现它们也购买了中期美国政府证券，并且由于利率上升每年面临数十亿美元的损失。因此，保持金融市场强劲的关键之一：第一，确保你能够长期向企业提供资本，这样它们就不用担心利率的波动；第二，持有这些债务的人必须拥有长期负债，而不是使用存单或短期负债来融资，这样他们才能抵御利率的波动。尤其在1970年代和1980年代，利率的波动是导致金融崩溃的主要原因之一，根源就在于人们持有短期负债却购买了长期资产，而随后利率上升了。所以当我现在审视金融市场时，我首先关注的是持有这些资产的公司或机构：它们是否以固定利率将资本长期锁定了？这能让我了解潜在可能出问题的地方。第二，我关注资产的重大流动趋势。100多年甚至150多年来，人力资本的主要流动方向是美国。但在2023年或2024年，全球百万富翁的第一大目的地是阿联酋，美国排在第二，新加坡排在第三。所以当我看今天的欧洲，看到企业家和富裕人士不断流向希腊或意大利，英国大量流失人口，或者流向阿联酋，对于北欧的流动，你会想：未来的新公司还会设在那些国家吗？它们还会诞生在那里吗？它们还会创造在……在美国，同样的事情正在发生，人们正在离开加利福尼亚，前往得克萨斯、佛罗里达、内华达或田纳西。Palantir的亚历克斯·卡普（Alex Karp）不仅搬离了加利福尼亚，而且把Palantir的总部迁到了佛罗里达。这些会导致就业创造格局的转移吗？埃隆·马斯克离开加利福尼亚，不仅已经让加利福尼亚损失了100亿到200亿美元，随着时间的推移可能会损失1000亿美元，而且他在得克萨斯的大规模扩张，让得克萨斯的所有那些员工如今因SpaceX成为了百万富翁。这些活动原本更多可能发生在加利福尼亚，但现在它们发生在得克萨斯。
英文原文
>> Well, private credit is really not much different than public non-investment grade debt. uh for financial firms uh it's kind of a throwback to the 1950s and60s where the insurance companies were the largest lenders. The positive part of it is the investors 95 to 99% are long-term investors. What you're seeing here in the redemption of the major money managers where they have individuals who are redeeming and on a quarterly basis is very small percentage of their assets. It might be 1% but uh the best issue here is to get long-term commitments in the hands where your investors are long-term investors. pension funds, insurance companies. So, it's somewhat of a throwback to the 60s and early 70s today and uh so and there is credit risk which is why there's a spread and the credit risk historically has been very low. You looked if you look at the financial crisis of 07 to 10 the major losses on that period of time were an investment grade securities not non-investment grade securities particularly real estatebacked securities that were perceived to be AAA or double A or single A but weren't and had risk associated with them. So there's risk in all forms of assets and are you building in a reserve for credit risk which you need to build in. So private credit to me is really no different than public credit for the money manager. They get to charge you more money to manage your money if you're in private credit. You know maybe three to five times as much. So they have an incentive. uh one of the greatest risk in financial markets is mismatch of maturities and investments. So in the United States we had two great financial franchises. One was Silicon Valley Bank and one was Republic Bank that both had to find part of the market. They both failed not because of the value of their assets in a credit sense but a dramatic increase in interest rates and they owned US government securities but they were financing them and overnight or short-term assets. So >> they were losing considerable money and a great company like Schwab saw its stock go down 40% because they discovered they had also bought intermediate US government securities and we're now losing billions a year due to the increase in interest rates. And so one of the keys to the strength of financial markets is to make sure one you can provide capital to businesses over a long period of time so they don't have to worry about variations in interest rates. but two that the owners of that debt have long-term liabilities are but are not being financed with certificates deposits or short-term liabilities so that they can weather volatility of interest rates >> in the 1980s particularly and the 1970s the volatility of interest rates was one of the major causes of financial failure due to the fact that people had short-term liabilities and bought long-term assets and interest rates went up. So when I look at financial markets today, the first thing I look at is the companies that hold or the organizations that hold these assets. Do they have the capital tied up at a fixed rate for a long period of time? So that lets me understand the potential things that could go wrong. Number two, I look at the major movement of assets. So for more than a hundred years, maybe for more than 150 years, the major movement of human capital was to the United States. But then in 2023 or 2024, the number one destination for millionaires in the world was the UAE. US was second, Singapore was third. And so when I look at Europe today and the continual movement of entrepreneurs and wealthy individuals to Greece or Italy, UK losing considerable or the UAE and for Northern Europe the movement you wonder are the new companies of the future going to be based in those countries. Are they going to be born? Are they going to create in the United States the same thing is being created with people leaving California for Texas or Florida or Nevada or Tennessee? Palunteer Alex Karp not only moved from California but he moved the headquarters of Palunteer to Florida. So do these cause shifts in job creation? Elon Musk leaving California has not only cost California 10 or 20 billion already, maybe a hundred billion over time, but his dramatic expansion in Texas, all those employees in Texas who are now millionaires, uh, due to SpaceX, >> more of these activities might have occurred in California, but they're now occurring in access.美国梦中心与医疗科研投资
>>: 迈克，关于美国梦。去年9月，你在白宫正对面开设了一个致力于美国梦的中心。这是关于什么的？
英文原文
>> Mike, um, the American dream. Last September, you opened a center devoted to the American dream, basically just across from the White House. What is this about?>>: 2005年，我开始对美国的未来感到担忧。在大概15年前，我都一直认为，凭借这个国家的社会资本，你可以偿清美国的债务；来自世界各地的富裕人士都会想来到美国，并且愿意为一张绿卡支付数百万美元，从而留在美国且不必为其海外收入缴税，就像意大利和希腊今天所提供的政策一样。但是，如果我们破坏了这种社会资本，如果我们损害了“这里是企业家迁移的最佳去处”的观念，这就会改变人们来到美国的意愿，最优秀、最聪明的人可能会留在其他国家或前往其他国家。纵观当今全球最具价值的公司——全球市值最高的20家公司中，有两家在韩国，还有一家在中国台湾，但几乎所有其他公司都在美国。
英文原文
>> In 2005, I became concerned about the future of the United States. I felt up until maybe 15 years ago that you could pay off the debt of the United States due to the social capital of the country and that wealthy individuals from all over the world would want to go to the United States and would would be willing to pay millions of dollars for a green card that allowed them to stay in the United states and not pay taxes on their foreign earnings, the same thing that Italy and Greece offered today. But if we hurt this social capital, if we hurt the views that this is the best place for an entrepreneur to move, uh it would change the ability of people to want to come to the United States and the best and brightest might stay in a different country or go to a different country. When you look at the most valuable companies in the world today, the 20 most valuable companies in the world, there's a couple of them in in Korea, there's another one in Taiwan, but almost every single other one is in the United States.>>: 那么该中心的目标是什么？其目标本质上是成为希望的灯塔，照亮那三分之一认为自己永远无法实现其挪威梦、南非梦或美国梦的人群。那个梦想是向上流动的梦想，是充分发挥个人最大潜能的梦想，无论你的父母是谁、你的宗教信仰、种族、性别如何，或者你在哪里上的学。因此，我们正在讲述10000个人的故事。无论你认为自己在生活中面临何种残疾或挑战，世界上都有其他人曾面临过同样的挑战并找到了超越它们的方法。
英文原文
>> So, what is the goal for the center? The goal is essentially that we will be a beacon of hope for the onethird of the population that feels they'll never achieve their Norwegian dream or South African dream or American dream. And that dream is a dream of upward mobility to achieve your fullest potential regardless of who your parents were, your religion, your race, whether you're a man or a woman or where you went to school. And so we are telling 10,000 stories of individuals and no matter what you feel your disabilities are or challenges in your life, there are others in the world that have faced those same challenges and found out a way to rise above them.>>: 你还资助了制药和医学研究领域的很多工作。你在这里的主要关注领域是什么？
英文原文
you have also funded a lot of um efforts within uh pharma and medical research. Um what are your main areas of focus here?>>: 我想，就像我1965年偶然遇到的那位年轻非裔男子一样，我有10位家庭成员死于癌症。因此到了1970年代初，我完全接受并研究了这样一个事实：世界经济的主要增长来自于寿命的延长。1900年地球上的人类平均预期寿命为31岁。在400万年的进化历程中，我们的平均预期寿命仅仅延长了11年。而今天它是70多岁。所以在过去的120年里，我们将寿命延长了40多年。而且这不仅意味着你活得更久，也活得更健康。因此，我们在这个领域既进行了慈善投资，也进行了营利性商业投资。有一段时间，欧洲最有价值的公司是诺和诺德（Novo Nordisk），今天是一家科技公司在市值上遥遥领先。但人们并没有真正充分理解医学研究和突破的重要性。在20世纪初，主要死因很大程度上被抗生素和其他类型的发展消除了，它们不再是主要的死因。而在西方世界，心脏病或癌症这些主要的死亡原因正被有效应对；希望在未来一到二十年内，由于新的发展，心脏病和癌症这两个病种的负面影响将大幅减少。
英文原文
>> I think just like this young African-American man I met in 1965 by chance, I lost 10 members of my family to cancer. And so by the early 1970s I fully accepted the fact that and studied that the na major growth of the world's economy was the extension of life. Average life expectancy in 1900 on the planet was 31 years of age. In 4 million years of evolution, we'd extended average life expectancy 11 years. Today it's mid70s. So we have extended life exendence life spans in the last 120 years by more than 40 years. And so the pro and it's not only that you live longer, you live healthier. And so therefore, we've invested both philanthropically and we've invested in for-profit businesses in this area. For a period of time, the most valuable company in Europe was Nova Nortis. Today, it's a technology companies, which is the most valuable by far. But people don't really fully understand the importance uh of medical research and breakthroughs. The major causes of death at the start of the 20th century were eliminated heavily by antibiotics and other types of developments that weren't the major causes of death. And major causes of death in the western world of uh heart heart disease or cancer are being effectively and hopefully in the next decade or two these the side effects of these two heart disease and cancer will be substantially reduced due to new developments.工作伦理、好奇心与给年轻人的建议
>>: 你刚刚年满80岁。你现在的动力来自哪里？因为你看起来一如既往地勤奋。
英文原文
>> You just turned 80 yourself. Where does your motivation come from now? Because you seem to be as hardworking as ever before.>>: 我有孙辈。他们长大后能否拥有我曾拥有的同样机会？所以我可以告诉你，我97%的精力实际上都集中在我的孙辈将要生活在怎样的世界里。我记得在我七八岁的时候，我父亲告诉我，除非每个人都觉得自己有机会，否则我的孩子——也就是他的孙辈——就不会有机会。不是说每个人都必须成功，而是每个人都觉得自己有成功的机会。我认为这就是今天驱使我的动力。无论在今天的教育领域、医疗保健领域、发掘新创业者，还是在金融素养方面，这四项不仅是华盛顿那个中心的四大支柱，也是我今天的人生和关注重点的四大支柱。我今天正努力通过我孙辈的眼睛来看待这个世界。
英文原文
>> I have grandchildren. Are they going to have the same opportunities I had when they grow up? So, I would say to you, 97% of my efforts are really focused on what is the world my grandchildren are going to be born in. And I remember when I was seven or eight years old, my father told me that my children, his grandchildren would not have an opportunity unless everyone felt they had a chance. Not that they succeeded, but everyone felt they had a chance to succeed. And I think that's what drives me today. And whether it's in education today or whether it's in health care or whether it's finding new entrepreneurs or whether it's in financial literacy. Each of those four are the four pillars of the center in Washington. But they're also the four pillars of my life and my focus today. But I'm trying to see the world through the eyes of my grandchildren today.>>: 很有意思。前几天我碰到了创办阿瑞斯（Ares）的托尼·雷斯勒（Tony Ressler），他曾在德雷塞尔与你共事。他说在工作上不可能比你更拼，因为如果他早上5点到，你已经在4点半到了；如果他4点半到，你4点就已经在那里了。而且在“捐赠誓言”（Giving Pledge）活动上我也观察过你：你坐在第一排，带着一个装满研究材料的大帆布包，在听演讲的同时快速翻阅所有这些研究报告。这种工作伦理到底源自哪里？
英文原文
>> It's interesting. I uh bumped into Tony wrestler the other day who started Rus and he worked with you at Drexel and he said it was impossible to outwork you because if he came in at 5, you were there 4:30. If he came 4:30, you were there at 4:00. And um I've been observing you too when we are at the giving pledge because you sit on the front row and you have this big canvas bag of of research and you are at the same time as you are listening to the lectures you are flowing through you know all these all these research. So this kind of work ethics where did it all come from?>>: 我想这是从我很小的时候开始的。我小时候最喜欢的书几乎和所有其他小孩都不一样，那是《年鉴》（Almanac）。今天有了互联网，你不需要年鉴了。但在那时，我迫不及待地等待新的一期年鉴出版，这样我就可以根据事实去观察变化、趋势和正在发生的事情等等。所以我想我很小的时候就发现了这点。既然你管理着全球最大的基金之一，我记得那是在1970年代初——可能是1970年本身——我和一家大型金融机构的负责人一起去参加一场体育比赛，那是一场纽约尼克斯队的篮球赛。当时我正试图说服他这种非投资级债务在当时是多么有吸引力。我们坐在那里看比赛，我不断试图用事实来打动他。但在四节比赛的第三节末，他对我说：“我跟你说吧，别再跟我谈这个了。如果尼克斯赢了，我就买；如果尼克斯输了，我就不买。”这让我反思：无论56年前我的展示有多么震撼，他却要根据他的球队表现来做决定。这让我回去后思考：我必须找到一种不同的陈述事实的方法。正是在那时，我转向了向人们提问、让他们在自我发现中自己回答的方式。
英文原文
>> I think uh it started when I was very young. My favorite book as a little kid was, I'm sure, different than almost any other little kid. It was the Almanac. Today, you don't need an almanac because you have the internet. But back then, I couldn't wait for the new almanac. So, I could look at changes, trends, what was happening, etc. based on facts. And so I think from a very young age I discovered and since you are the head of one of the largest funds in the world I remember it was the early 1970s might have been might have been 70 itself. I went to a sporting event. This was a New York Nick basketball game with the head of one of the major financial institutions. and I was trying to convince him of how attractive this non-investment grade debt was at the time. And so we were sitting there watching the game and I was constantly trying to hit him with facts, etc. And by the end of the third quarter in a four quarter game, he told me, "I'll tell you what, just don't talk to me about it anymore. If the Knicks win, I'll buy it. And if the Knicks lose, I won't. So, it made me think here, no matter how powerful my presentation was 56 years ago, how his sporting team did was when he was going to make his decision. And it made me go back and think, I have to find a different way to present facts. And that's when I shifted to asking people questions and letting them answer themselves in self-discovery.>>: 迈克，我向你提出的最后一个问题是：你对年轻人有什么建议？
英文原文
So my last question to you Mike is just what is your advice to young people?>>: 我给年轻人的建议是：他们能做的最有价值的事情是教育和好奇心。当他们纳闷人们为什么会说某些话时，去探究他们是对是错。但这种好奇心与年龄无关。你在100岁时依然可以拥有好奇心，我希望不仅仅是80岁。现在的年轻人很多都没有这种好奇心。但如果你在当今世界缺乏知识，你就会处于巨大的劣势之中。如果你没有不断尝试探索新事物的好奇心，你往往就会困在过去，无法成为未来的一部分。
英文原文
My advice to young people is the most valuable thing they can do is education and curiosity. That when they wonder why people are saying things, go and discover are they right? Are they wrong? But that curiosity is not tied into your age. You can have curiosity at a hundred years of age. I hope not just 80. And young people, many of them don't have that curiosity. But if you don't have the knowledge today in the world, you're at enormous disadvantage. And if you don't have curiosity to try to constantly discover new things, you will often be stuck in the past and won't be a part of the future.>>: 迈克，你在80岁确实依然拥有极大的好奇心。非常感谢你抽空接受采访，这真是一次难得的荣幸。非常感谢。
英文原文
>> Well, Mike, you for sure have a lot of uh curiosity at 80. Uh big thanks for taking the time. It's been it's been a true pleasure. Well, thank you.>>: 非常希望大家喜欢本期节目。如果您喜欢，请点赞、订阅并开启通知。这确实能帮助我们邀请到更多优秀的嘉宾。