每日回顾概览

Hey everybody, welcome back to the channel. We are back with another episode of the daily recap, episode number two, after a five-month hiatus. I just want to thank everyone who showed support on episode number one yesterday. I'm super grateful and happy that a lot of people enjoy the format, and we're going to try to do it every single day, Monday through Thursday, for 15-20 minutes, to get all the news that's important for the stock market, so that it's an easy way to consume it for everybody.

大家好，欢迎回到本频道。我们带着每日回顾的第二集回来了，这是在停播五个月之后的回归。我只想感谢昨天对第一集表示支持的每一个人。我非常感激和高兴有很多人喜欢这种形式，我们也将尝试每周一到周四每天进行，时长15-20分钟，每天汇总对股市重要的所有新闻，以便大家能够轻松地获取信息。

We have a lot of stuff to talk about today: J-Pal (Jerome Powell: 现任美联储主席), Trade Representative Jameson Greer, the S&P 500 (Standard & Poor's 500: 一种衡量美国500家大型上市公司股票表现的股票市场指数) going down 1.5% then a complete reversal, and more news in AI (Artificial Intelligence: 模拟人类智能过程的机器技术). Lots to talk about. Let's get into it.

今天我们有很多事情要谈：美联储主席鲍威尔、贸易代表詹姆森·格里尔，标普500指数下跌1.5%后又完全反转，以及更多人工智能领域的新闻。有很多内容要讲，让我们开始吧。

中美贸易紧张局势与市场反转

Okay, so the first thing we'll talk about is Trade Representative Jameson Greer. I stayed extra long on my market open just to be able to hear his comments because I had a feeling, and I think the entire market had a feeling, that whatever he was going to say was going to matter.

好的，我们首先要谈的是贸易代表詹姆森·格里尔。我特意延长了市场开盘时间，就是为了能听到他的评论，因为我有一种预感，而且我认为整个市场都有一种预感，他说的任何话都将举足轻重。

Now, why does this matter? Well, this morning, if you looked at your portfolio—in fact, I looked at mine at 4:00 a.m. this morning—it was down a lot of money. Let me know in the comments who actually wakes up in the middle of the night and checks their portfolio. It's such a stupid thing to do, but we all do it even though there's barely any volume and pre-markets don't always matter. Nonetheless, I ironically had some pretty bad dreams after seeing how much money I was down.

那么，这为什么重要呢？嗯，今天早上，如果你查看了你的投资组合——事实上，我今天早上4点就查看了我的——它下跌了很多。在评论区告诉我，谁会在半夜醒来查看自己的投资组合。这真是件蠢事，但我们都这么做，尽管几乎没有交易量，而且盘前市场并不总是那么重要。尽管如此，看到我亏了多少钱之后，我竟然做了一些糟糕的梦。

But look, in the morning it was pretty bad. At the market open, it was pretty bad. And then Jameson Greer, who is the Trade Representative for the United States, had some things to say.

但是看，早上情况相当糟糕。开盘时也相当糟糕。然后，美国贸易代表詹姆森·格里尔发表了一些看法。

Now, what happened in the morning? China basically came out with a statement, essentially, if you were to paraphrase it, they continued to escalate the problem with rare earth metals (稀土金属: 一组17种化学元素，对于高科技产品制造至关重要). We thought that issue was dealt with on Sunday when Trump said, "Hey, don't worry about China. Xi had a bad moment. We're going to be okay." But then, based on what they said in the morning, it felt like it was escalating.

那么，早上发生了什么？中国基本上发表了一份声明，概括来说，他们继续升级了稀土金属的问题。我们原以为这个问题在周日就已经解决了，当时特朗普说：“嘿，别担心中国。习主席只是情绪不好。我们会没事的。”但根据他们早上发表的言论，感觉情况正在升级。

The market was down 1.5%. Then one of the head representatives who negotiates with China, Scapasent, said the following things: Number one, the United States and China had staff-level talks in Washington today, meaning they are negotiating and there is an open line of communication. Number two, everybody needs rare earths; China knows this, and they are really hurting themselves by acting like this. Number three, the Chinese realize they overstepped, which is why they pulled back some of their statements over the weekend. Number four, 100% tariffs (关税: 对进口商品征收的税费，通常旨在保护国内产业或作为贸易谈判工具) are still on the table based on what China does next. And number five, we always watch the stock market and bond market, wanting to make sure the market responds to appropriate information. By the way, the 10-year Treasury (十年期美国国债: 美国财政部发行的、期限为十年的政府债券，被视为无风险利率的基准) in the U.S. bond market is starting to come down; it's at 4.019%. If that comes below 4%, that would not be the worst thing in the world.

市场下跌了1.5%。然后，与中国进行谈判的首席代表之一斯卡帕森特说了以下几点：第一，美国和中国今天在华盛顿举行了司局级会谈，这意味着他们正在谈判，并且存在开放的沟通渠道。第二，每个人都需要稀土；中国知道这一点，他们这样做实在是在伤害自己。第三，中国人意识到他们越界了，这就是为什么他们在周末撤回了一些声明。第四，根据中国接下来的行动，100%的关税仍然在考虑之列。第五，我们始终关注股市和债市，希望确保市场对适当信息做出反应。顺便说一句，美国债市的十年期国债收益率开始下降；目前是4.019%。如果跌破4%，那将不是世界上最糟糕的事情。

So, why did the markets do an entire U-turn (U型反转: 市场或趋势迅速从下跌转为上涨，形似字母U)? If you bought the dip from around 9:30 a.m. Eastern to about 9:45, those were the 15 minutes where you really had an opportunity when the market took a hit. Why did it do a U-turn? Well, in my opinion, Jameson Greer basically told the market, "We are not trying to escalate the situation. We did not initiate the escalation of the situation. We want to work with China. It's just we were dumbfounded last week when we were getting all these notices from other countries that are now being threatened by China's new 'export controls.' China says they're not export controls; the United States says they're obviously export controls, and that is hurting the supply chain and flow of rare earth metals and minerals."

那么，市场为何会完全U型反转呢？如果你在东部时间上午9:30到9:45左右逢低买入，那15分钟是市场受到冲击时你真正获得机会的时刻。它为什么会U型反转？嗯，在我看来，詹姆森·格里尔基本上告诉市场：“我们不打算升级局势。我们没有主动升级局势。我们希望与中国合作。只是上周我们收到了来自其他国家的通知，这些国家现在正受到中国新的‘出口管制’的威胁，我们对此感到困惑。中国说那不是出口管制；美国说那显然是出口管制，这正在损害稀土金属和矿物的供应链和流动。”

As a result, the markets basically thought, "Okay, cool." So Trump is not trying to start some crazy trade war. Trump did not suddenly say, "Hey, let's mess with China," which was the market's perception back in April, causing markets to take a 30% drawdown, and we had a 3% drawdown on Friday. I think the markets were just like, "Dude, we don't want to deal with this again, with Trump starting random trade wars." I think Jameson Greer basically came out and said it's not really our fault; we want to work with the Chinese, and they want to work with us. In fact, on Friday or last Saturday, their foreign ministry came out with a bunch of statements trying to de-escalate, and then JD Vance de-escalated, and Trump literally de-escalated. But then this morning, they escalated again, and we are trying to de-escalate. So that doesn't mean there's a conclusion to this China saga. But I think the reason the markets literally went and did a V-shape is because there is more clarity on what's happening and likely when it's going to end, as Trump and Xi confirmed they're going to be talking next week in South Korea. So at the APEC meeting, there likely is going to be some level of communication to be able to resolve this, and if it does, that could be a tailwind for the broader markets. But I think we got some clarity today, even if we're not out of the woods, and as a result, that's why the markets were able to recover.

结果，市场基本上觉得：“好吧，不错。”所以特朗普并非要发动一场疯狂的贸易战。特朗普并非突然说：“嘿，我们来搞搞中国吧”，这在四月份是市场的一种看法，导致市场下跌了30%，周五我们也下跌了3%。我认为市场当时的想法就是：“伙计，我们不想再和特朗普随意发动贸易战这种事打交道了。”我认为詹姆森·格里尔基本上出来说，这并非我们的错；我们希望与中国人合作，他们也希望与我们合作。事实上，上周五或周六，他们的外交部发表了一系列声明，试图缓和局势，然后JD·万斯缓和了，特朗普也确实缓和了。但今天早上，他们又升级了，而我们正在努力缓和局势。所以这并不意味着这场中国风波有了结论。但我认为市场之所以出现V型反转，是因为对正在发生的事情以及可能何时结束有了更清晰的认识，因为特朗普和习主席已确认下周将在韩国会谈。因此，在亚太经合组织会议上，很可能会有一定程度的沟通来解决这个问题，如果能解决，那将对整体市场构成利好。但我认为今天我们获得了一些明确性，即使我们尚未完全摆脱困境，因此市场才得以反弹。

鲍威尔的看涨前景

Alright, next topic of the day: J-Pal (Jerome Powell: 现任美联储主席). Not only did Jameson Greer say some things today, but J-Pal also said a couple of things. Let's just say he said the same things you would expect him to say, but I almost think the market needs him to say these things over and over again for them to feel happy.

好的，今天的下一个话题是鲍威尔。今天不仅詹姆森·格里尔说了一些事情，鲍威尔也说了几句。可以说，他说的都是你预料他会说的那些话，但我几乎认为市场需要他一遍又一遍地重复这些话，才能感到高兴。

So, at my market open, we didn't watch J-Pal live. I predicted J-Pal would say the labor market is weak, and we're going to have more rate cuts (降息: 央行降低基准利率的行为，旨在刺激经济增长). J-Pal said, in a nutshell, the labor market is weak, and we're going to get more rate cuts, or rather, the labor market weakness is signaling that we will have more rate cuts. He didn't literally say we're going to have more rate cuts, but he said you're likely going to have some rate cuts. As a result, he basically signaled that we're going to have rate cuts, which was another reason why the markets got excited.

所以，在我开盘时，我们没有实时观看鲍威尔的讲话。我预测鲍威尔会说劳动力市场疲软，我们将会有更多的降息。鲍威尔简而言之就是说，劳动力市场疲软，我们将会有更多的降息，或者说，劳动力市场的疲软预示着我们将会有更多的降息。他并没有明确地说我们将会有更多的降息，但他表示很可能会有一些降息。因此，他基本上暗示了我们将会有降息，这也是市场感到兴奋的另一个原因。

They thought, "Alright, so J-Pal is definitely on board with the rate cut thesis." J-Pal understands the risks to the labor market from a low-hiring economy, along with AI potentially commoditizing jobs. We've been talking about that a lot on the channel: what's going to happen to a lot of these different blue-collar (蓝领工人: 从事体力劳动或技术性工作的工人) and white-collar (白领工人: 从事脑力劳动或行政管理工作的工人) jobs in the world of AI. So, you probably want to have rates low to at least be able to get ready to cushion the impact if there is more significant job loss. And then, if we're going to get rate cuts, the market is able to price that in.

他们想：“好吧，鲍威尔肯定支持降息的论点。”鲍威尔理解低招聘经济对劳动力市场的风险，以及人工智能可能使工作商品化。我们在这个频道上已经讨论了很多：在人工智能时代，许多不同的蓝领和白领工作将会发生什么。所以，你可能希望利率保持在低位，至少能够准备好缓冲更严重的失业带来的影响。然后，如果我们将要降息，市场就能够将其消化在价格中。

Now, two other things he said that I think were really important. Number one, he said the data is showing that the economy is largely where it was in September. We don't have a lot of data because of the government shutdown (政府停摆: 政府因未能通过预算案而导致部分非核心部门暂停运作). By the way, Kali is estimating that the government shutdown has a 30% chance to last until November 16th, so that might be a little bit longer than expected. But J-Pal did say the data before the shutdown suggests that growth may be better than expected, largely where it was in September.

现在，他还说了另外两件我认为非常重要的事情。第一，他说数据显示经济状况与9月份大体相同。我们没有很多数据，因为政府停摆。顺便说一句，卡利估计政府停摆有30%的可能性会持续到11月16日，所以可能比预期要长一些。但鲍威尔确实表示，停摆前的数据表明经济增长可能好于预期，大体与9月份持平。

So, this was really bullish because if you have the labor market weakening, which indicates a reason to cut rates (if jobs go down, you want to have that cushion for the labor market with rate cuts), and growth is not decelerating (which would hurt earnings and the broader economy if growth goes down), then you have a scenario where assets can benefit from rate cuts, but also growth doesn't have to slow down, which is good for the earnings on those assets.

所以，这真的非常看涨，因为如果劳动力市场疲软，这预示着有理由降息（如果就业下降，你需要通过降息为劳动力市场提供缓冲），而且经济增长没有减速（如果增长下降，会损害盈利和整体经济），那么你就面临这样一种情况：资产能够从降息中受益，同时增长也不必放缓，这对这些资产的盈利是有利的。

The final thing J-Pal said, which was the most important statement he made, is that the central bank of the United States is nearing a point where it will stop reducing the size of its bond holdings but gave no long-run indication of where interest rates are ultimately headed. Essentially, the TL;DR (Too Long; Didn't Read: 意为“太长不看”，常用于总结要点) on that is that they're going to stop quantitative tightening (QT) (量化紧缩: 央行通过出售资产或停止再投资到期资产来缩减其资产负债表，从而收紧货币政策). So, when they are dumping bonds, that is quantitative tightening; that is reducing the size of the balance sheet (资产负债表: 一份报告公司或央行在特定时间点的资产、负债和所有者权益的财务报表), and that is introducing less liquidity (流动性: 资产转换为现金的难易程度，市场中可供投资或交易的资金量) into the system because you're obviously tightening the overall balance sheet in general.

鲍威尔最后说的一点，也是他声明中最重要的一点是，美国央行正接近一个停止缩减其债券持有规模的节点，但并未给出利率最终走向的长期指示。本质上，其TL;DR（太长不看）就是他们将停止量化紧缩（QT）。所以，当他们抛售债券时，这就是量化紧缩；这会缩减资产负债表的规模，并向系统注入更少的流动性，因为你显然正在普遍收紧整体资产负债表。

Quantitative easing (QE) (量化宽松: 央行通过购买政府债券或其他金融资产来增加货币供应量和流动性，以刺激经济) is what we had in 2020 when the Fed started buying up bonds, and as a result, you have more liquidity, more liquidity, lower rates. That is basically the scenario for getting asset prices (资产价格: 各类金融或实物资产（如股票、房地产）的市场价值) to go up. Does that result in a bubble (资产泡沫: 资产价格在短期内迅速上涨，远超其内在价值，随后可能突然破裂)? Maybe. We'll worry about that when that happens. But the point is, today the market simply needed a signal on whether we are going to stop the contraction of the U.S. balance sheet, and J-Pal basically said that's coming to an end by the end of the year.

量化宽松（QE）就是我们在2020年美联储开始购买债券时所经历的，结果是更多的流动性、更多的流动性、更低的利率。这基本上是导致资产价格上涨的情景。这会导致泡沫吗？也许吧。等发生的时候我们再担心。但关键是，今天市场只是需要一个信号，即我们是否会停止美国资产负债表的收缩，而鲍威尔基本上表示，这将在今年年底结束。

Now, we don't know if that's for sure going to happen, but that was the perception the market took away from his comments, and as a result, stocks went higher. So, it was a pretty wild 1.5% swing to the downside. If you bought the dip on anything at that time, you probably did well. And now, at the time of recording this, we're up about half a percent based on what Greer said and based on what J-Pal said.

现在，我们不确定这是否一定会发生，但这是市场从他的评论中得到的看法，结果是股市上涨了。因此，这是一个相当剧烈的1.5%的下跌反弹。如果你当时逢低买入任何东西，你可能都做得不错。而现在，在录制本节目时，根据格里尔和鲍威尔的发言，我们上涨了约0.5%。

银行财报与未来焦点

Alright, next up, we've got bank earnings. The banks crushed it. The banks absolutely crushed it, folks. The main banks we had today, and the reason banks matter, even if you are not invested in them, is because they are the financial ecosystem (金融生态系统: 包含金融机构、市场、产品、服务和监管框架的复杂网络，支撑经济活动) of the United States. If the financial structure of the U.S. is strong—loans are being dispersed, credit loss provisions (信用损失准备金: 银行或金融机构为未来可能发生的贷款违约和损失而预留的资金) aren't that bad, delinquencies (拖欠款项: 借款人未能按时偿还债务或履行合同义务的情况) aren't that bad, capital spending (资本支出: 企业用于购买、维护或升级实物资产（如建筑物、设备）的资金) is strong, M&A (Mergers & Acquisitions: 公司并购) is strong, IPOs (Initial Public Offerings: 首次公开募股) and underwriting (承销: 投资银行协助公司发行证券（如股票、债券）并向投资者出售的过程) of different forms of credit are not at a horrible level—then that means the rest of the economy, also known as Big Tech (大型科技公司: 指那些市场价值高、影响力大的科技巨头，如苹果、亚马逊、谷歌等), which largely relies on financials, is also in good shape. Obviously, the big tech balance sheets don't literally need loans and access to the capital debt markets, but it is good to make sure that the capital debt markets are in the right shape if those are needed. And many other tech companies, not as big as Amazon, do need access to loans and banking. And the banks need to be in the right position.

好的，接下来是银行财报。银行表现非常出色。各位，银行表现绝对亮眼。我们今天主要谈到的银行，以及银行之所以重要的原因，即使你没有投资银行股，也是因为它们是美国的金融生态系统。如果美国的金融结构强劲——贷款正在发放，信用损失准备金不那么糟糕，拖欠款项不那么糟糕，资本支出强劲，并购活跃，首次公开募股和各种形式信贷的承销没有处于糟糕的水平——那么这意味着经济的其他部分，也就是大型科技公司，它们在很大程度上依赖金融，也处于良好状态。显然，大型科技公司的资产负债表并非真的需要贷款和进入资本债务市场，但确保资本债务市场处于良好状态是件好事，以备不时之需。还有许多其他不如亚马逊那么大的科技公司确实需要贷款和银行服务。而银行需要处于有利地位。

JPMorgan beat on the top and the bottom line. BlackRock beat on the top and the bottom line. Citi beat on the top and the bottom line. Goldman Sachs beat on the top and the bottom line. And Wells Fargo had a massive beat on the top and the bottom line. Wells Fargo was up 7% on the day, while the rest were relatively flat to red. Many of these stocks were already up 20% to 30%, so they don't have to go up just because they have good earnings. Nonetheless, all these companies had phenomenal earnings, and eventually, their stocks will potentially reflect that.

摩根大通的营收和利润均超出预期。贝莱德的营收和利润均超出预期。花旗银行的营收和利润均超出预期。高盛的营收和利润均超出预期。而富国银行的营收和利润均大幅超出预期。富国银行当天上涨了7%，而其他银行则相对持平或下跌。许多这些股票已经上涨了20%到30%，所以它们不一定仅仅因为盈利良好就上涨。尽管如此，所有这些公司都取得了惊人的盈利，最终它们的股票可能会反映出这一点。

I think the most important thing from the bank earnings is some of the quotes we got from these CEOs. Larry Fink basically said there are about $4.5 trillion of financial assets that are already tokenized (代币化: 将现实世界的资产（如股票、房地产）转换为区块链上的数字代币的过程) in the context of stocks and stablecoins (稳定币: 一种加密货币，其价值与法定货币或其他资产挂钩以保持价格稳定). His ambitions include turning that into real estate, etc. So, you've got some pretty good prerogatives from Larry Fink on the idea that if tokenization is already happening, and $4.5 trillion out of the $13.5 trillion of assets they have is related to crypto, tokenized assets, etc., then you're likely going to get a pathway for those to increase, which is bullish for Robinhood, Coinbase, Kraken, and all the companies that deal with the tokenized ecosystem.

我认为银行财报中最重要的一点是我们从这些首席执行官那里得到的一些引语。拉里·芬克基本上说，大约有4.5万亿美元的金融资产已经以股票和稳定币的形式代币化。他的抱负包括将其转化为房地产等。因此，拉里·芬克对于代币化正在发生，并且在他们拥有的13.5万亿美元资产中，有4.5万亿美元与加密货币、代币化资产等相关联的观点，提出了一些相当不错的特权。那么，这些资产很可能会有增长的途径，这对Robinhood、Coinbase、Kraken以及所有处理代币化生态系统的公司都是利好。

Larry Fink specifically said the value is held in digital wallets, and we expect it to expand rapidly across crypto, stablecoins, and tokenized assets. That's the first thing. The second really important thing he said is about data centers (数据中心: 集中存放计算机服务器、存储系统和网络设备，用于存储、处理和分发数据的设施). We know that BlackRock and JPMorgan—yesterday, JPMorgan announced a $1.5 trillion initiative to increase investment in energy, data centers, and about 10 other sectors, but energy and data centers are two of the most important things they're going to be investing in over the next 10 years in the United States because they are recognizing the demand for energy.

拉里·芬克特别提到，这些价值存储在数字钱包中，我们预计它将在加密货币、稳定币和代币化资产领域迅速扩展。这是第一点。他说的第二件非常重要的事情是关于数据中心。我们知道贝莱德和摩根大通——昨天，摩根大通宣布了一项1.5万亿美元的倡议，旨在增加能源、数据中心以及其他约10个行业的投资，但能源和数据中心是未来10年他们将在美国投资的两个最重要领域，因为他们认识到对能源的需求。

BlackRock's Larry Fink once again said on the earnings call that data centers are a massive priority and that they are going to make sure that data centers continue to succeed. An estimated $1.5 trillion of capital is going to be needed in the next five years just for the core and shell of data centers, and that's not including the chips. The growth of cloud computing (云计算: 通过互联网按需提供计算服务，包括服务器、存储、数据库、网络、软件、分析和智能) and AI are propelling this capital demand, and BlackRock is well-positioned to expand its leadership. Teams across BlackRock are exploring how AI can play a bigger role in making sure that markets are more accessible and efficient.

贝莱德的拉里·芬克在财报电话会议上再次表示，数据中心是一个巨大的优先事项，他们将确保数据中心继续成功。未来五年，仅数据中心的核心和外壳就需要约1.5万亿美元的资本，这还不包括芯片。云计算和人工智能的增长正在推动这一资本需求，贝莱德有能力扩大其领导地位。贝莱德的各个团队正在探索人工智能如何能在确保市场更易于访问和高效方面发挥更大的作用。

Essentially, Larry Fink is telling you that data centers are a massive opportunity for financial institutions. They are heavily incentivized to make sure that the financing for those data centers is possible. As a result, the banks pretty much crushed earnings. And it looks like tokenization and data centers are going to be the key focus of many of these financial institutions over the next decade.

本质上，拉里·芬克是在告诉你，数据中心对金融机构来说是一个巨大的机遇。他们有强烈的动机确保这些数据中心的融资得以实现。因此，银行的盈利表现非常出色。看起来，代币化和数据中心将成为许多金融机构在未来十年内的重点关注领域。

市场数据与投资者行为

Okay, let's talk about some stats. I saw one stat today, and I was pretty surprised, but also not surprised by it. It's quite incredible when you put it into perspective.

好的，我们来谈谈一些数据。今天我看到一项数据，我感到相当惊讶，但又并不惊讶。当你将其置于某种视角下时，它相当令人难以置信。

So, listen to this: on Friday, when we had the 3% drawdown—the worst drawdown we've had since April—the market went up, then down; it was a pretty crazy day. In the midst of the market's ups and downs, it was obviously very volatile (波动性: 市场价格在短时间内大幅波动的程度).

所以，听好了：周五，当我们经历了3%的下跌——这是自四月份以来最糟糕的一次下跌——市场先是上涨，然后下跌；那是一个相当疯狂的日子。在市场涨跌交替的过程中，显然市场波动性非常大。

The total U.S. option volume (期权交易量: 在特定时间内交易的期权合约总数) hit a record high of 108 million contracts traded on Friday. To put it into perspective, in 2021, the highest amount of volume—puts and calls (看跌期权和看涨期权: 期权合约的两种基本类型，看涨期权给予买方以特定价格购买资产的权利，看跌期权给予买方以特定价格出售资产的权利) together in the options market—was 60 million, and that was at the peak of what was happening in 2021. So, this was almost double the volume from four years ago, and 2021 was a pretty crazy time. Again, I don't think we're in 2021. We've talked about that a lot on the channel: why there are some unique, fundamentally differentiated aspects to how we can conceptualize what was happening in 2021 versus now, with rate cuts, earnings, and AI. There are a lot of different variables to it, but yes, there is some froth in the market, and some of that froth is going to be there. And when that froth is there, you're going to get record option volumes like this.

周五，美国期权总交易量创下历史新高，达到1.08亿份合约。作为对比，2021年期权市场的最高交易量（看跌期权和看涨期权合计）是6000万份，那是在2021年市场最疯狂的时候。所以，这几乎是四年前交易量的两倍，而2021年是一个相当疯狂的时期。再次强调，我认为我们现在不处于2021年。我们在这个频道上已经讨论了很多：为什么我们现在对2021年发生的事情与现在的情况（降息、盈利、人工智能）的理解存在一些独特且根本性的差异。其中有很多不同的变量，但是的，市场上存在一些泡沫，而且这些泡沫会一直存在。当泡沫存在时，你就会看到像这样的创纪录期权交易量。

You're also going to get a lot of people who want to hedge (对冲: 采取投资策略以减少潜在的损失风险) to the downside if you're experiencing a 3% drawdown. 61 million calls were traded on Friday, and 47 million puts. The puts volume was the second largest on record, while the calls volume was an all-time high, also beating April's Liberation Day trading activity when 100 million options were traded in one day.

如果你正在经历3%的下跌，也会有很多人想要进行下行对冲。周五交易了6100万份看涨期权和4700万份看跌期权。看跌期权交易量创下历史第二高，而看涨期权交易量则创下历史新高，也超过了四月份解放日单日1亿份期权交易的活动。

This is super bullish for Robinhood, Webull, Fidelity, and Schwab. All these brokerages benefit from market volatility. But the point is, we are in a generation of investors—whether retail or institutional, from my perspective—who are ready to buy the dip.

这对Robinhood、Webull、Fidelity和Schwab来说是极度看涨的。所有这些券商都从市场波动中受益。但关键是，我们正处于一个投资者世代——在我看来，无论是散户还是机构——都准备好逢低买入。

Another stat for you is that NVDU (NVDU: 一种追踪英伟达股票表现的2倍杠杆ETF基金，旨在放大其每日收益或亏损) — the 2x leverage Nvidia fund — picked up $130 million in inflows on Friday. So, Nvidia went down 5%, and people piled into leveraged Nvidia, which is quite incredible. We're going to get more stats over the coming days on how much of the dip was actually bought on Friday by retail investors. The three stocks that were bought the most were Meta, Nvidia, and Robinhood, as per JPMorgan, which also came out yesterday.

另一个数据是，NVDU（英伟达2倍杠杆基金）周五流入了1.3亿美元。所以，英伟达下跌了5%，人们却大量涌入杠杆英伟达，这相当令人难以置信。未来几天，我们将获得更多关于散户周五逢低买入多少的数据。据摩根大通称，被买入最多的三只股票是Meta、英伟达和Robinhood，这消息也是昨天发布的。

But we are in an era where a generation of investors sees every market drawdown as a reason to get more excited. I mean, even I bought some more calls on my SMCI position; I have a 60/90 call dividend because I thought, "Well, it came down; I should probably DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging: 平均成本法，一种投资策略，定期投资固定金额，以降低市场波动风险) down into these calls." So, I think all of us have this mentality that the future is bright. There's a lot of growth, optimism, excitement, and opportunity. And when you get a drawdown or see a drawdown, it is perceived as an opportunity. That's just the generation we are in. And I don't think it's just the "buy the dip" generation of retail investors; I think it's a "buy the dip" generation of institutional investors who realize they're not going to get the amazing prices they did four, five, or ten years ago during a drawdown because that drawdown is easily absorbed. 108 million contracts traded in one day because of a tweet from Trump about China causing a 3% drawdown is quite remarkable.

但我们正处于这样一个时代，一代又一代的投资者将每一次市场回调视为一个更令人兴奋的理由。我的意思是，即使我也在我的SMCI头寸上买入了更多的看涨期权；我有一个60/90的看涨期权分红，因为我想，“好吧，它下跌了；我应该平均成本法买入这些看涨期权。”所以，我认为我们所有人都有这样一种心态，即未来是光明的。有很多增长、乐观、兴奋和机会。当你遇到或看到回调时，它被视为一个机会。这正是我们所处的时代。而且我认为这不仅仅是散户投资者的“逢低买入”一代；我认为这是机构投资者的“逢低买入”一代，他们意识到他们将不会再像四、五、十年前那样在回调时获得惊人的价格，因为那样的回调很容易被消化。仅仅因为特朗普关于中国的一条推文导致3%的回调，一天之内就交易了1.08亿份合约，这相当引人注目。

So, I think the takeaway for investors here—and let me know in the chat if you loaded up on call options or put options, or sold calls or sold puts during that Friday—is that people are ready to take advantage of the opportunity if it is presented. The final point on this is that there are still $7.5 trillion on the sidelines earning 3.5% for money market funds (货币市场基金: 投资于短期、高流动性、低风险债务工具的共同基金). When that 3.5% potentially becomes 2.5% (by the way, Paul Tudor Jones came out today saying he thinks the NASDAQ (纳斯达克指数: 主要衡量在美国上市的科技和成长型公司股票表现的股票市场指数) will significantly be higher by the end of the year, and he thinks by the end of next year, we're going to have 2.5% to 2.75% interest rates), a lot of that money on the sidelines is probably going to take some risk. As a result, I think the demand for that is being pulled forward. People are buying every dip opportunity, and as a result, you're seeing the market gain more momentum.

所以，我认为投资者在这里的启示——如果周五那天你大量买入看涨期权或看跌期权，或者卖出看涨期权或看跌期权，请在聊天中告诉我——是人们已经准备好抓住机会。关于这一点，最后一点是，场外仍有7.5万亿美元资金停留在货币市场基金中，赚取3.5%的收益。当这3.5%可能变成2.5%时（顺便说一句，保罗·都铎·琼斯今天表示，他认为纳斯达克指数将在今年年底大幅走高，并且他认为到明年年底，我们将会有2.5%到2.75%的利率），很多场外资金可能会承担一些风险。因此，我认为这种需求正在被提前拉动。人们正在抓住每一个逢低买入的机会，结果你看到市场获得了更多的动能。

Palantir评级上调与增长前景

Alright, last topic of the day. Palantir (Palantir Technologies: 一家专门从事大数据分析的软件公司，为政府机构和大型企业提供数据集成和分析平台) gets an upgrade from Piper Sandler to $201 from $182. I think this is the third upgrade on the street for Palantir, getting it into that $200 level. Here's what the analysts had to say.

好的，今天的最后一个话题。Palantir获得了Piper Sandler的评级上调，目标价从182美元升至201美元。我认为这是Palantir在市场上获得的第三次评级上调，使其进入200美元的水平。以下是分析师的看法。

There is no argument that Palantir's valuation leaves no margin for error, particularly if any signs of moderating growth emerge. However, we argue that the tremendous visibility on future revenue—over $7 billion of defined contract value plus an estimated $4 billion of IDIQ contract value (不确定交付/不确定数量合同: 一种政府合同类型，允许在合同期内订购未确定数量的服务或商品)—accelerating triple-digit growth in commercial bookings year-to-date, and an unparalleled wallet share opportunity across $1 trillion of U.S. defense spending, could allow Palantir to 2 to 3x its current government business and still be 10x smaller than the largest defense primes (主要国防承包商: 为政府提供大量军事装备、服务和技术的最大型国防公司). Palantir has not reached peak growth. Therefore, we do not see catalysts to halt current momentum.

毫无疑问，Palantir的估值几乎没有犯错的余地，特别是如果出现任何增长放缓的迹象。然而，我们认为，未来收入的巨大可见性——超过70亿美元的明确合同价值，加上预计40亿美元的不确定交付/不确定数量合同（IDIQ）价值——商业预订量今年迄今加速实现三位数增长，以及在1万亿美元美国国防开支中无与伦比的钱包份额机会，可能使Palantir的现有政府业务增长2到3倍，而其规模仍比最大的主要国防承包商小10倍。Palantir尚未达到增长高峰。因此，我们认为没有催化剂能阻止当前的势头。

Essentially, the analyst is saying, 'Look, the valuation is aggressive. We understand the valuation is aggressive. However, it's hard for us to be upset or scared about the expensiveness if the growth is going to be there.' And based on all the analysis they've done around Palantir's government growth, it's likely going to be there.

本质上，分析师是在说：“看，估值很高。我们理解估值很高。但是，如果增长能够实现，我们很难对高昂的价格感到不安或担忧。”根据他们对Palantir政府业务增长的所有分析，这种增长很可能会实现。

Last week, we had some issues with a Reuters article (路透社报道: 指路透社发布的新闻文章，路透社是全球最大的新闻机构之一) that came out and said that Anduril (Anduril Industries: 一家国防科技公司，专注于开发AI驱动的自主系统和软件用于军事用途) and Palantir aren't effectively engaging in a way that allows the army to communicate with other branches of the army, and there were some issues with how their software and system were set up. I'm going to end the show today with a clip from Palmer Luckey, founder of Anduril, basically speaking about why that story wasn't a story. But it did create a decent opportunity, and if you took advantage of that, you know, you got into the low $170s on Friday with the Trump announcement on China, and now the stock is back at $180.

上周，我们遇到了一些问题，起因是路透社报道称Anduril和Palantir未能有效协同，导致陆军无法与其他军种进行有效沟通，他们的软件和系统设置也存在一些问题。我将以一段Anduril创始人帕尔默·拉奇的片段来结束今天的节目，他基本上是在解释为什么那篇报道根本不是新闻。但这确实创造了一个不错的机会，如果你抓住了它，你知道，周五随着特朗普关于中国的声明，股价跌到了170美元出头，而现在股价又回到了180美元。

Look, at the end of the day, I think the catalysts for Palantir shares haven't been that expansive because the stock has moved so much primarily based on earnings growth. So, it doesn't really need that massive billion-dollar contractor partnership. They did get $1 billion from the U.K. the other day for a five-year partnership with the Ministry of Defense. But I think the valuation on Palantir is so strong from multiple perspectives that they just need to keep delivering the growth. And it is really good to see the analysts come out and say, "Hey, look, things are going well. As long as they keep delivering the growth, we can see the stock continuing to do well." And obviously, going into the end of the year, if the stock can continue doing well based on the idea of that accelerating growth—which again, no other software company is growing 40-50%—then you're likely going to get some more momentum for Palantir.

看，归根结底，我认为Palantir股票的催化剂并没有那么广泛，因为该股的走势主要基于盈利增长。所以，它并不真正需要那种巨额的十亿美元承包商合作。前几天他们确实从英国获得了十亿美元，用于与国防部的五年合作。但我认为Palantir的估值从多个角度来看都非常强劲，他们只需要继续实现增长。很高兴看到分析师们出来说：“嘿，看，情况很好。只要他们继续实现增长，我们就能看到这只股票继续表现良好。”显然，进入年底，如果该股能基于这种加速增长的理念继续表现良好——再次强调，没有其他软件公司能以40-50%的速度增长——那么Palantir很可能会获得更多的动力。

Here is Palmer Luckey basically speaking about why that Reuters article was not necessarily the most accurate, in the most Palmer Luckey way. He also said that an IPO is coming up in a couple of years, so hopefully, by 2027, we can get some Anduril. Thank everybody for watching another episode of the daily recap.

以下是帕尔默·拉奇以他特有的方式，大致解释了为什么那篇路透社文章不一定最准确。他还提到，几年后将有一次IPO，所以希望到2027年，我们能看到一些Anduril。感谢大家收看每日回顾的又一集。

Palmer Luckey回应路透社报道

Could you just respond to that reporting which came from Reuters and explain the timeline and the inaccuracies that you feel there are in that report?

您能否就路透社的报道作出回应，并解释您认为该报道中存在的时间线和不准确之处？

So, you may or may not remember this, but I was a journalism major myself. I was only a semester and a half away from graduating. I was the online editor of the Daily 49er, which was the Cal State Long Beach student-run newspaper. So, I care a lot about this stuff, both from an Anduril perspective and also from a journalist's perspective. The journalist who wrote that Reuters story would have been failed out of the class by any of my professors.

你可能记得，也可能不记得，我自己曾是新闻学专业的学生。我只差一个半学期就毕业了。我曾是《每日49人报》的在线编辑，那是加州州立大学长滩分校的学生报纸。所以，我非常关心这些事情，既从Anduril的角度，也从记者的角度。撰写那篇路透社报道的记者，如果是我任何一位教授的学生，都会被淘汰。

He refused to include our on-the-record statement. He refused to include the on-the-record statement from the army because they fundamentally made the whole story not a story.

他拒绝收录我们正式的声明。他拒绝收录军队正式的声明，因为这些声明从根本上让整个故事变得不成立。

There was an analysis saying, "Hey, there are all of these security problems, like the system, the prototype for NGC2 (Next Generation Command and Control: 下一代指挥和控制系统), isn't tracking what the users are doing. It doesn't have any passwords to log in. There's no security turned on." And they said, "Oh my God, this is a huge problem." And we said, "Guys, this was an early prototype. The army wasn't paying us to demonstrate user accounts; it was paying us to demonstrate the integration of different sensors and different weapon systems all into one pipeline." And Anduril has all this functionality; we do this all the time. It's not like we don't know how to do this.

当时有一份分析报告称：“嘿，存在所有这些安全问题，比如系统，也就是**下一代指挥和控制系统（NGC2）**的原型，没有跟踪用户在做什么。它没有登录密码。也没有开启任何安全功能。”他们说：“天哪，这是一个巨大的问题。”而我们说：“伙计们，这是一个早期原型。军队付钱给我们不是为了演示用户账户；他们是付钱给我们演示将不同的传感器和不同的武器系统全部整合到一个管道中。”而且Anduril拥有所有这些功能；我们一直在做这些。这并不是说我们不知道怎么做。

And the army said the same. They said, "Yeah, we just turned on all those features a few weeks later. All these issues you're talking about didn't exist." This was an internal security audit (安全审计: 对信息系统、应用程序或网络进行系统性检查，以评估其符合安全策略和标准的情况，并识别潜在漏洞). It was just noting that these things were a factor in that early prototype. Yes, there's no access control (访问控制: 限制或授权用户访问特定系统资源或数据的机制). Yes, that is a risk. Yes, we have not audited all of their security code. That is a risk. But that's completely normal for early development.

军队也这么说。他们说：“是的，我们几周后就开启了所有这些功能。你们提到的所有这些问题都不存在了。”这是一次内部安全审计。它只是指出，在那个早期原型中，这些因素确实存在。是的，没有访问控制。是的，那是一个风险。是的，我们还没有审计他们所有的安全代码。那是一个风险。但这对于早期开发来说是完全正常的。

But Reuters didn't include our quote, nor did it include the army's quote, because that would have made the entire story irrelevant. So instead, they included quotes exclusively from our competitors and from so-called anonymous sources, saying that Anduril and Palantir are running this fundamentally insecure thing. There's a 99% chance that was planted by one of our competitors who had access to that memo, and there are only a few people who could have done it. I can make people look bad by slicing and dicing memos, too. I'll show you if I want. I'll get back into journalism.

但路透社没有引用我们的话，也没有引用军队的话，因为那会让整个报道变得毫无意义。所以，他们反而专门引用了我们竞争对手和所谓匿名消息来源的话，称Anduril和Palantir正在运行这个根本不安全的东西。有99%的可能性，那是我们某个能接触到那份备忘录的竞争对手散布的。而且只有少数人能做到。我也可以通过剪切备忘录来让人难堪。如果我想，我会给你看。我将重回新闻界。