以色列人质归来与中东和平前景

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This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. 这里是彭博观察播客。

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Let's go to Galite Alstein, a Bloomberg News reporter based in Tel Aviv. 让我们连线彭博新闻社驻特拉维夫的记者加利特·奥尔斯坦。

Gal, thanks so much for joining us here. What's the feeling in Israel today as these hostages come home? 加利特，非常感谢您加入我们。今天这些人质回家后，以色列的情绪如何？

Galite: I think for almost everyone in Israel, this is a very happy day. 加利特：我认为对以色列几乎所有人来说，这是一个非常开心的日子。

We've been seeing tens of thousands of Israelis flock since early this morning to Tel Aviv's Hostage Square, which has become a gathering point over the past two years for those advocating for the release of the hostages. 我们看到，从今天清晨开始，数万名以色列人涌向特拉维夫的人质广场，这里在过去两年中已成为呼吁释放人质者的聚集地。

It was quite a sight today, seeing about 60-70,000 people in the square and in all the surrounding streets, with a big stage that kept broadcasting the images of the hostages coming out. 今天景象非常壮观，大约有六七万人聚集在广场及周边街道，一个大舞台持续播放着人质走出来的画面。

People were chanting, clapping their hands, singing, and cheering. 人们高呼、拍手、唱歌、欢呼。

It was indeed a very happy day and, I think, a sense of relief for a lot of Israelis here. 这确实是一个非常开心的日子，我认为对许多以色列人来说，也带来了一种解脱感。

There was a moment in that speech when President Trump was talking to Prime Minister Netanyahu directly, and he said he had a lot of guts for knowing when to stop the fighting and for stopping it when he did. 在演讲中，特朗普总统曾直接与内塔尼亚胡总理对话，他说内塔尼亚胡非常有勇气，知道何时以及在何时停止战斗。

Just get us up to speed here on what these last few days have been like. 请您为我们介绍一下过去这几天的情况。

We had President Trump unveiling this peace plan a couple of weeks ago. 几周前，特朗普总统公布了这项和平计划。

The devil is in the details, of course, we were talking about that just a few moments ago—what's going to happen here in Egypt and going forward. 当然，细节决定成败，我们刚才也讨论了这一点——在埃及和未来会发生什么。

But just explain what President Trump was able to do, how he was able to convince Prime Minister Netanyahu to stop that assault on Gaza City that was underway. 但请解释一下特朗普总统是如何做到，又是如何说服内塔尼亚胡总理停止对加沙城正在进行的袭击的。

Galite: To be very honest and transparent, I think we only know part of the answer to that question at this stage. 加利特：坦白说，我认为现阶段我们只知道这个问题部分答案。

But overall, Netanyahu has generally insisted that Israel cannot stop fighting in Gaza and cannot stop fighting Hamas (Hamas: 巴勒斯坦逊尼派伊斯兰原教旨主义组织) until it is totally defeated, completely out of power, and until all of its military capabilities are taken out. 但总的来说，内塔尼亚胡一直坚持，以色列不能停止在加沙的战斗，也不能停止打击哈马斯（Hamas: 巴勒斯坦逊尼派伊斯兰原教旨主义组织），除非哈马斯被彻底击败，完全失去权力，并且其所有军事能力都被清除。

What happened here is that Trump, along with Steve Witkov and Jared Kushner, managed to do a few things. 这里发生的情况是，特朗普与史蒂夫·威特科夫和贾里德·库什纳一起，设法做成了几件事。

On the one hand, they managed to convince Hamas, through mediators, to give up all the hostages at once—at least all the living hostages—because there are still 28 dead hostages that remain in Gaza. 一方面，他们通过调解人说服哈马斯，一次性释放所有在押人质——至少是所有活著的人质——因为加沙仍有28名人质已经遇害。

We understand that only about four of them are going to be brought back today. 据我们了解，今天只有大约四名遇害人质的遗体将被运回。

So that's one thing they managed to do. 所以这是他们成功做成的一件事。

But in turn, what Hamas wanted was guarantees that the war would in fact end after that happens, and that Israel doesn't just get all the hostages back and then goes back to fighting. 但作为交换，哈马斯要求获得保证，即在此事发生后战争将实际结束，以色列不能在人质全部归还后又重新开战。

Trump has basically personally guaranteed that this will happen and that the war will end. 特朗普基本上亲自担保了这一切会发生，战争会结束。

We've heard him say multiple times today, on the way to Israel on Air Force One and when he came to the Israeli parliament, that this is the end of war and that the US will make sure that's what happens. 我们今天多次听到他在前往以色列的空军一号上以及在以色列议会中表示，这是战争的结束，美国将确保这一点发生。

So I think these are the two things that made a difference. 所以我认为这两件事起到了作用。

The biggest sticking point moving forward will be whether Hamas agrees to disarm. 未来最大的症结在于哈马斯是否同意解除武装。

Trump's 20-point plan says that's what Hamas has to do. 特朗普的20点计划指出哈马斯必须这样做。

Hamas hasn't agreed to do that yet, and that's what Israel insists on. 哈马斯尚未同意，而这正是以色列所坚持的。

So we'll have to see how that plays out. 所以我们拭目以待事态如何发展。

But the sense is that the war, at least as we've known it in the past two years, has in fact come to an end. 但感觉上，至少在过去两年我们所知的战争，实际上已经结束了。

That's what it looks like today. 今天看起来就是这样。

Thank you so much for joining us. 非常感谢您的加入。

We really appreciate your reporting from Israel, Galite Alstein, Bloomberg News in our Tel Aviv bureau. 我们非常感谢彭博新闻社特拉维夫分社记者加利特·奥尔斯坦来自以色列的报道。

Stay with us. 请继续收听。

More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 稍后彭博观察将带来更多内容。

You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. 您正在收听彭博观察播客。

Catch us live weekday mornings from 7 to 10:00 a.m. Eastern. 在东部时间工作日上午7点至10点收听我们的直播。

Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App or watch us live on YouTube. 您可以通过彭博商业应用程序在Apple CarPlay和Android Auto上收听，或在YouTube上观看我们的直播。

市场情绪与企业财报展望

Let's check in with Lori Calvina, Head of US Equity Strategy for RBC Capital Markets. 让我们连线加拿大皇家银行资本市场美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔维娜。

Lori, trade seems to be one of the drivers of market sentiment these days. 洛里，贸易似乎是当前市场情绪的驱动因素之一。

We've seen a softening of tone from President Trump as it relates to China, and I guess that's what the market likes to see here. 我们看到特朗普总统在对华关系上的语气有所软化，我想这也是市场乐于看到的。

What are you making of today's pre-market action? 您如何看待今天的盘前走势？

Lori: Thanks for having me, Paul. 洛里：保罗，谢谢邀请。

It's not unexpected to get a bit of a bounce after the big drop we saw on Friday. 在周五的大幅下跌之后，出现一定程度的反弹并不意外。

I think it's going to be really interesting to see how the S&P 500 (Standard & Poor's 500: 一个包含美国500家最大上市公司股票的市值加权指数) trades today. 我认为今天标普500指数（Standard & Poor's 500: 一个包含美国500家最大上市公司股票的市值加权指数）的走势将非常有趣。

The kids are out of school in New York City, and I'm guessing other parts of the country as well. 纽约市的孩子们都放学了，我想全国其他地方也一样。

They're thankfully not running around here for me. 谢天谢地，他们没有在我这里乱跑。

But it is a quiet day on Wall Street, so let's see what we get in terms of price action. 但华尔街今天很平静，所以让我们看看价格走势如何。

But I think tomorrow is really going to be the day where we start to hear more from folks in terms of how they're digesting this. 但我认为明天才是我们开始听到更多人如何消化这一消息的日子。

As I think back over the last three weeks, Paul, I've been in the UK and running around the US to more cities than I can count. 保罗，回想过去三周，我一直在英国，并跑遍了美国数不清的城市。

I heard a lot of things people were worried about: valuations, AI, capex, rate cut pricing pulled forward in the stock market, labor, inflation—is that going to start to percolate soon? 我听到了人们许多担忧：估值、人工智能、资本支出、股市中提前反映的降息预期、劳动力、通货膨胀——这些是否会很快浮现？

Are we going to see more of a growth response to tariffs in the market? 我们是否会看到市场对关税有更多的增长反应？

But the one thing I was not hearing about was that things could start escalating again with China. 但我唯一没有听到的是，与中国的局势可能会再次升级。

So, I think what we learned on Friday was that a fair amount of the market believed we were on a good path, with things headed in the right direction. 所以，我认为我们周五学到的是，相当一部分市场认为我们正走在正确的道路上，事情正朝着正确的方向发展。

That was really a firm underpinning of this market. 这确实是支撑这个市场的一个坚实基础。

So, we need to see how that plays out. 所以，我们需要看看事态如何发展。

It seems like quarter after quarter, Lori, going into earnings season, financials are held up as a bellwether, something that's going to tell us about the health of the market and give us some insight into the economy as well. 洛里，似乎每个季度，在财报季到来之际，金融股都被视为一个风向标，它能告诉我们市场的健康状况，也能让我们洞察经济形势。

Tomorrow, we've got JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup. 明天，我们将迎来摩根大通、高盛和花旗集团的财报。

On the heels of that, we've got Bank of America and Morgan Stanley on Wednesday. 紧接着，周三将有美国银行和摩根士丹利。

In this odd economy, at this moment, what are those particular companies going to tell us? 在这个奇怪的经济环境下，在当下这个时刻，这些公司会告诉我们什么呢？

Lori: We'll see what they have to say. 洛里：我们会看看他们怎么说。

Earnings revisions have been pretty resilient there. 那里的盈利预期修正一直相当有韧性。

My guess is that we're going to have some pretty good messaging coming out of them, but we'll have to see. 我猜他们会发布一些相当不错的信息，但我们还得拭目以待。

Your comment about the bellwether, though, was something we wrote about in our weekly today. 不过，你提到风向标的评论，是我们今天周报中写到的。

If I go back the last couple of reporting seasons, I could summarize what we've been hearing from the banks, especially the big banks, as "don't worry about the consumer; everything's fine, the stats all look good. 如果我回顾过去几个财报季，我可以将我们从银行，特别是大银行那里听到的总结为：“别担心消费者；一切都很好，所有数据看起来都不错。

We're really proud of our consumers for being more choiceful in their purchases, but don't worry, things aren't cracking." 我们为消费者在购物时更有选择性而感到自豪，但别担心，情况并没有恶化。”

And that's not wrong; that's what they're seeing in the data, which is one perspective. 这并没有错；这是他们在数据中看到的，这是一种观点。

But the problem is that a lot of people in the financial community go around saying that as evidence that there's nothing to worry about. 但问题在于，金融界很多人以此作为证据，四处宣扬没有什么可担心的。

If you actually go and listen to the consumer companies who have the boots-on-the-ground feel, there are some really—not troubling, that's not quite the word I want to use—but there are some problems. 如果你真的去听那些有实际市场感受的消费品公司，会发现确实存在一些——并非令人担忧，这不是我想用的词——但确实存在一些问题。

For example, what we've noticed in recent consumer companies, those late-cycle, off-cycle reporters that came at the tail end of the reporting season, they were talking not just about the low-income consumer being stressed, but the middle-income consumer being stressed. 例如，我们注意到近期一些消费品公司，那些在财报季末期发布报告的后期周期、非周期性公司，它们不仅谈到低收入消费者面临压力，中等收入消费者也面临压力。

One company over the last few weeks said they were seeing stress in the consumer worldwide. 过去几周，有一家公司表示他们看到全球消费者都面临压力。

We had another company that was talking about how socioeconomic issues are pressuring consumers across cohorts. 还有一家公司谈到社会经济问题如何对不同群体消费者造成压力。

So I think we really need to take the financials with a grain of salt. 所以我认为我们真的需要对金融业的报告持保留态度。

It's an important perspective, one that we absolutely want to have and find valuable, but at the same time, they're not able to give us the full picture because only the consumer companies are really able to tell us about the composition of the spend under the surface. 这是一个重要的视角，我们绝对希望拥有并认为它有价值，但同时，它们无法给我们全貌，因为只有消费品公司才能真正告诉我们表面之下的消费构成。

So Lori, given that earnings are kicking off here, let's put that in the context of valuation. 洛里，鉴于财报季即将开始，让我们将其置于估值的背景下来看。

What discussions are you having with your clients these days about valuation across the market? 您最近与客户讨论市场估值时，主要有哪些议题？

Lori: Everyone's worried; everyone's got sticker shock. 洛里：每个人都很担心；每个人都感到价格震惊。

If you just look at our charts on, say, the S&P 500 (Standard & Poor's 500: 一个包含美国500家最大上市公司股票的市值加权指数) market cap-weighted PE (Price-to-Earnings Ratio: 市盈率，衡量公司股价相对于每股收益的估值比率), you can do the same thing on the NASDAQ 100 (Nasdaq 100: 纳斯达克100指数，由在纳斯达克上市的100家最大的非金融公司组成) either cap-weighted or equal-weighted. 如果你看一下我们关于标普500指数（Standard & Poor's 500: 一个包含美国500家最大上市公司股票的市值加权指数）市值加权市盈率（Price-to-Earnings Ratio: 市盈率，衡量公司股价相对于每股收益的估值比率）的图表，你也可以对纳斯达克100指数（Nasdaq 100: 纳斯达克100指数，由在纳斯达克上市的100家最大的非金融公司组成）进行市值加权或等权重分析。

We also look at the top 10 names in the S&P 500. 我们也会关注标普500指数中市值最大的10家公司。

You've basically got forward PE levels that are sitting in line with recent highs—not necessarily tech bubble highs, not necessarily all-time highs, but highs that in recent years have been difficult for the market to move past. 你基本上会看到远期市盈率水平与近期高点持平——不一定是科技泡沫时期的高点，也不一定是历史最高点，但却是近年来市场难以突破的高点。

So you're not getting any valuation expansion in this market. 所以在这个市场中，你没有看到任何估值扩张。

I think that's something the bottom-up stock pickers I talk to are frankly picking up on, and I think they're somewhat alarmed at some of the levels they're seeing in some of their portfolios. 我认为这正是那些我交谈过的自下而上的选股者所察觉到的，而且我认为他们对自己投资组合中某些股票的估值水平感到有些担忧。

So, I do think that earnings are really the big driver here. 所以，我确实认为盈利是这里真正的主要驱动力。

We have seen a fade in earnings sentiment. 我们已经看到盈利情绪有所减弱。

That doesn't mean earnings are going to be a disaster, but the big pop in earnings surprises that we got in the last reporting season, I don't think we're set up to repeat that. 这并不意味着盈利会是一场灾难，但上个财报季我们看到的盈利惊喜大爆发，我认为我们没有条件再次复制。

Paul, you weren't here; I was filling in for you. 保罗，你当时不在，我替你主持。

Lori was on, and I brought up the fact that it seemed like analyst after analyst and strategist after strategist was touting how this was a moment for small caps (Small Capitalization Stocks: 小市值股票，指市值相对较小的公司股票). 洛里当时在节目中，我提到了一个现象，似乎一位又一位的分析师和策略师都在吹捧这是小盘股（Small Capitalization Stocks: 小市值股票，指市值相对较小的公司股票）的时刻。

I asked Lori if she agreed with that. 我问洛里是否同意这个观点。

Lori rightly brought out her CV and touted her bona fides when it comes to her experience analyzing small caps in her previous life. 洛里恰如其分地拿出她的简历，并强调了她以前分析小盘股的丰富经验。

She was skeptical, I think I could say, about the prospects for small caps. 我认为可以说，她对小盘股的前景持怀疑态度。

I would invite her to take a bit of a victory lap here. 我想邀请她在这里小小的庆祝一下。

Lori, what is your sense of where small caps are headed? 洛里，您认为小盘股的走向如何？

What does that tell you about the market more broadly? 这又向您揭示了更广泛的市场情况？

Lori: David, I always describe small caps as my first professional child. 洛里：大卫，我总是把小盘股形容为我的第一个职业孩子。

So, no one wants them to succeed more than me, to have that moment in the sun and that leadership shift. 所以，没有人比我更希望它们成功，更希望它们能有闪耀的时刻，并实现领导地位的转变。

But, frankly, I felt a little bit like I was shouting into the abyss over the last few months while Wall Street was just going bananas talking about small caps and calling for the beginning of this big outperformance cycle. 但坦白说，在过去几个月里，我感觉自己有点像在对著深渊呐喊，而华尔街却对小盘股表现得异常狂热，并预言著大盘将迎来大幅跑赢的周期。

Based on what I'm seeing in the recent trading data, it looks like it's kind of fizzled out once again. 根据我最近看到的交易数据，似乎这一切又一次偃旗息鼓了。

That's not to say there isn't incremental upside in absolute terms, but we're no longer seeing this part of the market outperform the S&P or outperform the NASDAQ 100. 这并不是说绝对值上没有增量上涨空间，但我们不再看到这部分市场跑赢标普或纳斯达克100指数。

It looks like it may have just been another rate cut bet that fizzled out pretty quickly. 看起来这可能只是又一次很快就破灭的降息押注。

As we head into earnings season, one of the interesting things about small caps (Small Capitalization Stocks: 小市值股票) that's been coming up recently is that whatever challenges are out there—whether it's tariffs, for example, or back when we had the tight labor market post-COVID—small caps just have a difficult time managing around those challenges relative to their big cap companies (Big Capitalization Stocks: 大市值公司股票). 随着财报季的到来，最近关于小盘股（Small Capitalization Stocks: 小市值股票）一个有趣的问题是，无论面临何种挑战——例如关税，或者新冠疫情后劳动力市场紧张时期——小盘股相对于大盘股公司（Big Capitalization Stocks: 大市值公司股票）来说，应对这些挑战总是比较困难。

So that's one of the things I'm going to be looking for this reporting season: to see how small caps are managing through relative to their big cap counterparts. 所以，这个财报季我将关注的一件事是，小盘股相对于它们的大盘股同行，是如何应对这些挑战的。

Given that backdrop, what screens well for you guys? 在这种背景下，对你们来说，哪些领域表现良好？

I'm not sure if you do it by sector or by factor, something jumping out at you that gets your interest. 我不确定你们是按行业还是按因子来筛选，有没有什么特别吸引你们的？

Lori: We mostly focus on sectors, and we continue to like the financial sector. 洛里：我们主要关注行业，并且我们仍然看好金融行业。

Frankly, if we get a pullback in the market, they may not hold up better on the way down; they are cyclical in nature. 坦白说，如果市场出现回调，它们在下跌过程中可能表现不会更好；它们本质上是周期性的。

But we're not really concerned about that. 但我们对此并不真正担心。

We've said we like them on a 6-to-12-month view. 我们曾表示，我们看好它们未来6到12个月的表现。

So, if there's incremental weakness on a relative basis in the short term, we'd still use that as a buying opportunity. 因此，如果短期内出现相对的增量弱势，我们仍会将其视为买入机会。

Earnings revisions have been very resilient relative to other sectors. 相对于其他行业，金融业的盈利预期修正一直非常有韧性。

We're basically seeing the rate of upward revisions fade for most sectors in the S&P 500. 我们基本上看到标普500指数中大多数行业的盈利上调速度正在减弱。

Excluding technology, financials have had a little bit of a fade, but it's quite pale in comparison to what we've seen elsewhere. 除了科技行业，金融业的盈利上调也有所减弱，但与其他行业相比，其程度相当轻微。

Banks, consumer finance, and insurance all screen well on our valuation and earnings work. 银行、消费金融和保险在我们的估值和盈利分析中都表现良好。

I didn't upgrade it, but one of the things we have been talking about in recent reports, and we actually said this specifically in the weekly report we put out this morning, is that healthcare is starting to look a bit more interesting, especially if you think there's a market pullback that's already started or may be on the horizon. 我没有上调其评级，但我们在最近的报告中一直讨论的一点，也是我们今天早上发布的周报中明确提到的一点是，医疗保健行业开始看起来更有趣了，特别是如果你认为市场回调已经开始或可能即将到来。

We are neutral on all four of the defensive sectors, but healthcare is one that's been coming up in conversation recently. 我们对所有四个防御性行业都持中立态度，但医疗保健是近期讨论中经常出现的一个。

Valuations look good, earnings revisions have been a touch more resilient than other sectors, and the flows look pretty good. 估值看起来不错，盈利预期修正比其他行业更有韧性，资金流向也相当好。

Policy risk is still a big overhang, but we've had some developments on that, so maybe investors will be able to wrap their heads around that a little bit better than they have in the past. 政策风险仍然是一个巨大的悬而未决的问题，但在这方面我们已经取得了一些进展，所以投资者或许能够比过去更好地理解这一点。

Lori, very quickly here, I'm curious what your process is as we get into earnings season in earnest. 洛里，很快地，我很好奇随着财报季的正式到来，你们的工作流程是怎样的。

I know a lot of that involves you going through call transcripts, looking for phrases that stand out. 我知道其中很多工作包括您查阅电话会议记录，寻找引人注目的短语。

Paul asked about tariffs; he also asked about valuations. 保罗问到了关税；他也问到了估值。

What do you think you're going to learn, or what are you hoping to learn from those calls with executives in the weeks ahead? 您认为您将从未来几周与高管的这些电话会议中了解到什么？或者您希望了解到什么？

Lori: We do use tools to help point us in the right places in earnings call transcripts, but a lot of that's done after the fact. 洛里：我们确实使用工具来帮助我们在财报电话会议记录中找到重点，但很多工作都是事后进行的。

My team likes to read top to bottom, and we do speed-read, but we tend to divide up different sectors. 我的团队喜欢从头到尾阅读，我们也会快速阅读，但我们倾向于将不同行业分开。

We have some knowledge built up over time about which companies tend to be more insightful than others. 我们随着时间的推移积累了一些知识，知道哪些公司往往比其他公司更有洞察力。

Frankly, we look at the price action to figure out what transcripts we want to focus on. 坦白说，我们通过价格走势来判断我们想关注哪些会议记录。

I'm really curious to know more about inventories: how much pre-tariff inventory are companies still sitting on? 我真的很想了解更多关于库存的信息：公司目前还有多少关税前的库存？

Another thing I really want to understand in both the corporate and consumer world is how much demand was, or frankly was not, pulled forward from the back half of the year into the second quarter as companies and consumers were trying to get ahead of tariffs. 另一个我真正想在企业和消费者世界中了解的是，由于公司和消费者试图抢在关税之前，有多少需求从下半年提前到了第二季度，或者坦白说，有多少需求没有被提前。

I don't think we got good indications about either of those in the last reporting seasons. 我认为我们在上个财报季没有得到关于这两方面的良好迹象。

Companies were a bit vague. 公司都有些含糊其辞。

Analysts, frankly, I don't think were pushing hard enough to get answers to those questions. 坦白说，我认为分析师们没有足够努力地去追问这些问题的答案。

On the issue of pull forward, a lot of companies said they couldn't quite tell yet. 关于需求提前的问题，许多公司表示他们还不能确定。

So those are some of my big questions. 所以这些是我的一些大问题。

I'm also curious about 2026. 我还对2026年很好奇。

So far, companies are deferring or declining to answer when asked about 2026 tariff impacts, but any clues we can get there, I think, are going to be helpful. 到目前为止，当被问及2026年关税影响时，公司都在推迟或拒绝回答，但我认为我们能获得的任何线索都会有所帮助。

Lori, thank you so much for joining us. 洛里，非常感谢您的加入。

We always appreciate getting a few minutes of your time. 我们总是很感谢您能抽出宝贵时间。

Lori Calvocina, Head of US Equity Strategy for RBC Capital Markets. 洛里·卡尔维娜，加拿大皇家银行资本市场美国股票策略主管。

We appreciate getting some time from Lori. 我们很感谢洛里抽出时间。

Stay with us. 请继续收听。

More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 稍后彭博观察将带来更多内容。

You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. 您正在收听彭博观察播客。

Catch us live weekday mornings from 7 to 10:00 a.m. Eastern. 在东部时间工作日上午7点至10点收听我们的直播。

Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App or watch us live on YouTube. 您可以通过彭博商业应用程序在Apple CarPlay和Android Auto上收听，或在YouTube上观看我们的直播。

房地产市场：可负担性、消费者行为与保险成本

Let's talk about the residential real estate market. 让我们来谈谈住宅房地产市场。

Selma Hep, Chief Economist for Totality, joins us. Totality首席经济学家塞尔玛·赫普加入我们。

The big issue in residential real estate is affordability, or the lack thereof. 住宅房地产的一个大问题是可负担性，或者说缺乏可负担性。

Is there a solution to this affordability issue? 这个可负担性问题有解决方案吗？

I think about folks in their late 20s, early 30s looking to buy a house—that's tough out there. 我想那些二十多岁末、三十出头的年轻人想买房，这在外面是很难的。

Selma: It's very tough. 塞尔玛：非常困难。

Thanks for having me; I'm happy to be here today. 谢谢邀请，今天很高兴来到这里。

A lot of it right now is about mortgage rates, which have retreated from recent highs. 现在很多都与抵押贷款利率有关，它已经从近期高点回落。

They're now averaging between 6.25% and 6.4% for a 30-year fixed rate, which is the lowest in about a year. 目前，30年期固定利率平均在6.25%到6.4%之间，这是大约一年来的最低水平。

This means affordability is at its best now than it's been in over two and a half years. 这意味着可负担性达到了两年半多以来的最佳水平。

So, affordability is improving, and honestly, in some markets, you do have relatively quite a bit more affordability than in other markets. 所以，可负担性正在改善，坦白说，在某些市场，你确实比其他市场有相对更多的可负担性。

For example, in the Midwest and parts of the Northeast, it's clearly more affordable than coastal markets such as New York, Miami, and LA. 例如，在中西部和东北部的一些地区，它明显比纽约、迈阿密和洛杉矶等沿海市场更具可负担性。

In these more affordable markets, you now continue to see a relatively stronger rate of home price appreciation despite all the affordability challenges. 在这些更具可负担性的市场中，尽管面临所有可负担性挑战，但房屋价格仍然持续以相对更强的速度上涨。

So, markets in Indianapolis, Chicago, for example, even Boise City at this point, are again seeing relatively more appreciation over the course of this summer than other markets, such as Florida, and markets that have seen cumulatively so much more appreciation since the onset of the pandemic and have as a result become so unaffordable. 所以，例如印第安纳波利斯、芝加哥，甚至现在博伊西市的市场，在这个夏天又一次看到了相对更多的升值，而佛罗里达等其他市场，以及自疫情爆发以来累计升值过多的市场，因此变得非常难以负担。

Home prices in those markets are now declining. 这些市场的房价现在正在下跌。

So, it really depends on where you are in the country. 所以，这真的取决于你在国内的哪个地方。

I want to ask you another question about consumer behavior. 我想再问您一个关于消费者行为的问题。

Paul asked about 20-year-olds and 30-year-olds. 保罗问到了二三十岁的年轻人。

I have to give Lisa Matteo credit for this; she flagged a piece in the Wall Street Journal this morning about how young people, in particular, faced with higher-than-accustomed mortgage rates, have opted not to buy. 我必须感谢丽莎·马泰奥，她今天早上给我们指出《华尔街日报》上的一篇文章，内容是关于年轻人，特别是面对比我们习惯的更高抵押贷款利率时，选择不买房。

They see putting money in the stock market, where you can get a 9-10% return over time, as more promising, and that's a better deal for them as they pursue renting. 他们认为把钱投入股市更有前景，长期来看可以获得9-10%的回报，这对于他们选择租房来说是更好的选择。

Is that bearing out in what you see in terms of consumer behavior? 这是否与您在消费者行为方面看到的情况相符？

What are young people doing if they're not buying homes? 如果年轻人不买房，他们都在做什么？

And what's it going to take for them to once again consider homebuying to be so integral to our notion of what the American dream is? 他们需要什么才能再次将购房视为美国梦不可或缺的一部分？

Selma: The American dream is still alive and well; it's just been a little bit postponed. 塞尔玛：美国梦依然存在且发展良好；它只是被稍微推迟了。

With the returns they're getting in the stock market, it allows them to make larger down payments down the road. 凭借他们在股市中获得的收益，他们可以在未来支付更大额的首付款。

So, we do see the median age of first-time homebuyers being higher than it's been previously; they now tend to be about 10 years older when they buy their first home than they used to be. 所以，我们确实看到首次购房者的平均年龄比以前更高了；他们现在购买第一套房时，往往比过去大10岁左右。

But survey after survey shows that the American dream is alive and well. 但一项又一项调查显示，美国梦依然存在且发展良好。

What they're doing, coupled with the fact that many can still work remotely or don't have to go to offices five days a week, is moving to areas that are more affordable. 他们正在做的是，加上许多人仍然可以远程工作或不必每周五天去办公室的事实，他们正在搬到更经济实惠的地区。

They don't have to be in central cities, especially if they have families and are looking for good school districts; they tend to move a little bit further outside the cities. 他们不必住在市中心，特别是如果他们有家庭并且正在寻找好的学区；他们倾向于搬到离城市稍远的地方。

They also tend to stay with their parents for longer to save for down payments. 他们也倾向于与父母住更长时间，以便存够首付款。

But again, in our survey and data, for example, of mortgage applications, in more affordable areas like the Midwest, the share of first-time homebuyers is really high—50% or 60%. 但再次强调，例如在我们的抵押贷款申请调查数据中，中西部等更经济实惠的地区，首次购房者的比例非常高——达到50%或60%。

So, it just depends on where you are in the country; where it's more affordable to buy, people are buying, and younger buyers are buying. 所以，这真的取决于你在国内的哪个地方；在购房更经济实惠的地方，人们正在购买，年轻的买家也在购买。

Here in the New York metro area, we're dealing with the Nor'easter today, which once again highlights the cost of insurance, if people can even get insurance, whether it's for hurricanes, fire, or whatever. 在纽约大都会区，我们今天正遭受东北风暴的袭击，这再次凸显了保险的成本，如果人们能买到保险的话，无论是针对飓风、火灾还是其他什么。

Talk to us about insurance costs. 请您谈谈保险费用。

We've been hearing a lot about that really putting pressure on many people. 我们一直听到很多关于这方面对许多人造成压力的消息。

Selma: Insurance costs have been a big constraint on the market, and in markets where costs have gone up a lot or have a higher risk of natural disasters, home sales have been impacted. 塞尔玛：保险费用一直是市场的一个巨大制约因素，在那些成本大幅上涨或自然灾害风险较高的市场，房屋销售受到了影响。

In those markets, home sales tend to fall out of contract because people cannot get insurance. 在这些市场中，房屋销售往往会因人们无法获得保险而未能完成交易。

Overall insurance costs have gone up about 40% to 50%, and in some markets, significantly more, particularly in Florida and even parts of the Midwest where you don't typically think about high insurance costs. 总体而言，保险费用上涨了大约40%到50%，在一些市场中，涨幅甚至更大，尤其是在佛罗里达州，甚至包括中西部部分地区，这些地方你通常不会想到保险费用会很高。

They are high because of persistent tornadoes, for example, or hail. 它们之所以高，是因为持续的龙卷风或冰雹等原因。

So, not big natural disasters, but more persistent natural disasters are where we see large increases in insurance costs. 所以，不是大型自然灾害，而是更频繁发生的自然灾害导致了保险费用的显著上涨。

It is a big concern, but we do see some stabilization in the markets. 这是一个大问题，但我们确实看到市场出现了一些稳定迹象。

There have been regulatory changes in markets like Florida and California, for example, and that's helped improve accessibility to insurance. 例如，在佛罗里达州和加利福尼亚州等市场，已经出台了监管改革，这有助于提高保险的可及性。

But when you think about insurance costs continuing to go up, forecast after forecast shows that those costs will continue to rise. 但当你考虑到保险费用将持续上涨时，一份又一份的预测都表明这些费用会继续攀升。

The biggest thing is the concentration of residential valuation in areas that have high exposure to natural disasters. 最主要的问题是住宅估值高度集中在那些容易遭受自然灾害的地区。

Lastly, let me ask you about what you're seeing when you look at survey data about the US consumer—how he or she is feeling about the economy and their prospects going forward. 最后，我想问您，当您查看关于美国消费者的调查数据时，您看到了什么——他们对经济的感受以及未来的前景如何？

At this moment, we're struggling a bit because we don't have the hard data we're used to having due to the government shutdown. 目前，我们有些困扰，因为政府停摆导致我们无法获得惯常的硬数据。

From your surveys, from the so-called softer data, what are you learning about the health and optimism of the US consumer today? 从您的调查，从所谓的软数据中，您今天了解到了美国消费者的健康状况和乐观情绪如何？

Selma: Unfortunately, especially for the housing market, consumer confidence does remain fragile. 塞尔玛：不幸的是，尤其是对房地产市场而言，消费者信心依然脆弱。

As you said, there's been a lot of economic uncertainty and policy uncertainty. 正如您所说，存在许多经济不确定性和政策不确定性。

Most recently, what seems to weigh on consumers' minds is job security and income stability, versus, for example, fears of tariffs earlier in the year. 最近，消费者最关注的似乎是工作保障和收入稳定，而不是例如年初时对关税的担忧。

The other thing we see is income bifurcation (Income Bifurcation: 收入两极分化，指高收入群体和低收入群体之间的收入差距不断扩大). 我们看到的另一个现象是收入两极分化（Income Bifurcation: 收入两极分化，指高收入群体和低收入群体之间的收入差距不断扩大）。

Upper-income households are doing better. 高收入家庭表现更好。

When you look at home sales activity, it's performing better, and price stability is better in upper-income or higher-priced homes than lower-priced homes. 当你审视房屋销售活动时，会发现高收入或高价位房屋的表现更好，价格稳定性也优于低价位房屋。

So again, it's about income, and there's regional variation, but I would say that consumers continue to be very fragile. 所以，这再次与收入有关，并且存在区域差异，但我想说的是，消费者仍然非常脆弱。

They are very responsive, though, to mortgage rate changes. 不过，他们对抵押贷款利率的变化非常敏感。

With the most recent decline in mortgage rates, we've seen consumers coming back to the homebuying market. 随着最近抵押贷款利率的下降，我们看到消费者正在重返购房市场。

Selma, thank you so much for joining us. 塞尔玛，非常感谢您的加入。

We always appreciate getting a few minutes of your time. 我们总是很感谢您能抽出宝贵时间。

Selma He, Chief Economist for Totality. 塞尔玛·赫普，Totality首席经济学家。

Stay with us. 请继续收听。

More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 稍后彭博观察将带来更多内容。

You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. 您正在收听彭博观察播客。

Catch us live weekday mornings from 7 to 10:00 a.m. Eastern. 在东部时间工作日上午7点至10点收听我们的直播。

Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App or watch us live on YouTube. 您可以通过彭博商业应用程序在Apple CarPlay和Android Auto上收听，或在YouTube上观看我们的直播。

能源转型：挑战与机遇

Let's get right to it. 让我们直接进入正题。

David Maxwell, Managing Director of Sustainable Development Capital, co-manages a €650 million green energy solutions fund investing in energy transition (Energy Transition: 能源转型，指从化石燃料向低碳、可持续能源系统的全球转变) and infrastructure across the US, Canada, UK, and Europe. 大卫·麦克斯韦，可持续发展资本公司常务董事，共同管理着一个6.5亿欧元的绿色能源解决方案基金，该基金投资于美国、加拿大、英国和欧洲的能源转型（Energy Transition: 能源转型，指从化石燃料向低碳、可持续能源系统的全球转变）和基础设施。

David, thanks so much for joining us here in the studio, braving the Nor'easter. 大卫，非常感谢您来到演播室，冒着东北风暴。

We appreciate that. 我们对此表示感谢。

Is this administration supportive of the energy transition, from your perspective, or is it a headwind here? 在您看来，本届政府是支持能源转型，还是构成阻力？

What are you guys figuring out so far? 到目前为止，你们有什么发现？

David: It's a good question. 大卫：这是个好问题。

The important thing to focus on is the problem. 重点是问题本身。

We all know that in the United States, there's going to be a surge in electricity demand, driven by the AI boom, electrification, and onshoring. 我们都知道，在美国，在人工智能繁荣、电气化和制造业回流的推动下，电力需求将大幅增长。

The question is what to do about that, because we don't necessarily have the generation capacity or the transmission infrastructure to meet that growth in demand. 问题在于如何应对，因为我们不一定有足够的发电能力或输电基础设施来满足这种增长的需求。

The general consensus is that an "all of the above" approach is required, and in that context, things like distributed generation (Distributed Generation: 分布式发电，指在用电地点或附近发电，而非集中式电厂) and energy efficiency (Energy Efficiency: 能源效率，指以更少的能源完成相同任务或提供相同服务) are massively important in terms of filling the gap. 普遍共识是需要采取“全面发展”的方法，在这种背景下，分布式发电（Distributed Generation: 分布式发电，指在用电地点或附近发电，而非集中式电厂）和能源效率（Energy Efficiency: 能源效率，指以更少的能源完成相同任务或提供相同服务）对于弥补缺口至关重要。

When it comes to things like the "Big Beautiful Bill," which was passed on July 4th, there are certainly some headwinds associated with utility-scale solar and electric vehicles. 谈到像7月4日通过的“大美法案”这样的事情，公用事业规模的太阳能和电动汽车肯定会面临一些阻力。

But at the same time, if you really look at the text and the way the BBB has been discussed, there have actually been lifelines thrown to major parts of the energy transition and technologies associated with it. 但与此同时，如果你真正审视法案文本以及“大美法案”的讨论方式，实际上它为能源转型的主要部分及其相关技术提供了生命线。

These include some runway for distributed solar to continue to benefit from investment tax credits (Investment Tax Credits: 投资税收抵免，允许企业从其税负中扣除对某些类型财产投资的百分比) until the end of 2027. 其中包括为分布式太阳能提供了一些发展空间，使其能够继续受益于投资税收抵免（Investment Tax Credits: 投资税收抵免，允许企业从其税负中扣除对某些类型财产投资的百分比），直至2027年底。

The Big Beautiful Bill supports geothermal (Geothermal Energy: 地热能，来自地球内部热量的能源), and it's quite useful in terms of batteries, hydroelectric power (Hydropower: 水力发电，利用水流动力产生的电能), carbon capture storage (CCS: 碳捕集与封存，一种捕集发电厂和工业设施二氧化碳排放的技术，防止其进入大气), and other components. “大美法案”支持地热能（Geothermal Energy: 地热能，来自地球内部热量的能源），并且在电池、水力发电（Hydropower: 水力发电，利用水流动力产生的电能）、碳捕集与封存（CCS: 碳捕集与封存，一种捕集发电厂和工业设施二氧化碳排放的技术，防止其进入大气）以及其他组件方面都非常有用。

So, we just have to take a pragmatic view. 所以，我们必须采取务实的态度。

One of the positives that has come out of discussions—and we recently hosted an event during New York Climate Week—was that the fact that this has been passed and that there's policy certainty is a very positive thing for the types of sectors that we invest in. 讨论中产生的一个积极因素——我们最近在纽约气候周期间举办了一场活动——是法案的通过以及政策确定性，这对我们投资的行业类型来说是一件非常积极的事情。

Uncertainty is unhelpful, so we actually feel pretty good, comfortable, and quite bullish on the investment strategy we deploy within SDCL. 不确定性是无益的，所以我们实际上对SDCL内部部署的投资策略感到相当满意、舒适，并且非常看好。

I'm curious how much you and investors can tune out some of the politics surrounding energy right now. 我很好奇您和投资者现在能在多大程度上忽略围绕能源的一些政治因素。

I think of friends who live in Rhode Island or Massachusetts who have seen such great expenditure and investment in offshore wind farms. 我想到住在罗德岛或马萨诸塞州的朋友，他们看到海上风电场投入了巨大的开支和投资。

Now we see the administration taking a very adversarial approach to that. 现在我们看到政府对此采取了非常敌对的态度。

Obviously, this is being fought out in the courts. 显然，这正在法庭上进行抗争。

But when you look again at that level of investment and put it in the crucible of politics, is it your sense that cooler heads will prevail, that enough has been built, and these are close to being finished so they'll end up being operational? 但是，当你再次审视这种投资水平，并将其置于政治的严峻考验中时，您是否认为理智会占上风，已经建设的足够多，并且这些项目即将完工，最终将投入运营？

Or is it something that actually should be of concern to those who saw the prospect of this kind of broader-based energy future and are now wondering if we're going to have wind energy and other types of energy going forward? 或者说，这实际上应该引起那些曾看到这种更广泛能源未来前景，而现在却在怀疑我们未来是否还能拥有风能和其他类型能源的人的担忧？

David: Right. 大卫：是的。

I think the thing to focus on, and what will prevail, is the concept of economic imperative (Economic Imperative: 经济必然性，指经济发展中不可避免、必须遵循的规律或趋势). 我认为需要关注的，也是最终会占据主导地位的，是经济必然性（Economic Imperative: 经济必然性，指经济发展中不可避免、必须遵循的规律或趋势）这个概念。

Going back to the theme, there's going to be an explosion in energy demand in the United States, and there has to be some way to meet that growth in demand. 回到主题，美国的能源需求将出现爆炸式增长，必须有某种方式来满足这种需求增长。

If you look at the investment strategies we deploy within SDCL, they focus on downstreams, on energy efficiency—where energy is consumed, how it's built. 如果你看看我们在SDCL内部部署的投资策略，它们侧重于下游、能源效率——能源在哪里消耗，如何建造。

These sorts of themes are in some ways immune to policy because they don't rely on policy incentives. 这些主题在某种程度上不受政策影响，因为它们不依赖政策激励。

Energy efficiency and distributed generation can really stand on their own two feet. 能源效率和分布式发电完全可以自力更生。

In discussions with some of the CEOs we do business with and our portfolio companies, they feel that in time to come, and not very long—in two or three years post-2027—these types of technologies should and can stand on their own two feet. 在与我们合作的一些首席执行官和我们的投资组合公司进行的讨论中，他们认为在不久的将来——2027年后的两三年内——这些技术应该也能够自力更生。

Ultimately, I think that's what's going to drive the energy markets going forward, and you can see a confluence of opinions across the pond in Europe as well. 最终，我认为这将推动未来能源市场的发展，你也可以看到欧洲大陆的观点也趋于一致。

One of the things I discussed with your colleagues is energy efficiency. 我与您的同事讨论的一件事是能源效率。

How much energy is lost from where it's created, like an oil well, before it gets into my home? 从能源产生地，比如油井，到进入我家之前，有多少能源会损失掉？

Energy loss and energy efficiency are huge issues. 能源损耗和能源效率是巨大的问题。

How do you guys talk about that? 你们是如何讨论这个问题的？

Two-thirds of energy is lost... 三分之二的能源都损失了……

David: ...from the point of extraction to the point of use. 大卫：……从开采点到使用点。

It's a staggering statistic. 这是一个惊人的统计数据。

That's one of the things we identified when our company was established. 这也是我们公司成立时发现的问题之一。

If you can go to a hospital, a data center, or a school and save them energy, you can reduce some of that energy wastage primarily by two things: by installing on-site generation, which removes all the transmission and distribution losses associated with that large two-thirds energy loss, and by doing retrofits to make their energy plant and equipment more energy efficient. 如果你能去医院、数据中心或学校，帮助他们节约能源，你主要可以通过两件事来减少能源浪费：一是安装现场发电设施，这可以消除与那高达三分之二的能源损失相关的所有输配电损耗；二是通过改造，使其能源设备和装置更节能。

These things are really good for business. 这些对企业来说真的很有利。

They enhance on-site energy security, reduce carbon emissions, and cut costs, which is great for business. 它们增强了现场能源安全，减少了碳排放，并削减了成本，这对企业来说非常有利。

It also represents a fantastic investment opportunity for us and for the investors we represent. 同时，它也为我们和我们所代表的投资者带来了绝佳的投资机会。

I know. I've never heard that before. 我知道。我以前从未听过这种说法。

I will not forget that either. 我也不会忘记。

David Maxwell, Managing Director of Sustainable Development Capital. 大卫·麦克斯韦，可持续发展资本公司常务董事。

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. 这里是彭博观察播客，可在Apple Podcasts、Spotify以及其他任何您收听播客的平台收听。

Listen live each weekday from 7 to 10:00 a.m. Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business App. 在东部时间工作日上午7点至10点，您可以在Bloomberg.com、iHeartRadio应用、TuneIn和彭博商业应用程序上收听直播。

You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal. 您也可以在YouTube上观看我们工作日的直播，并始终在彭博终端上收看。