安大略省政坛动态:OSAP改革、市政选举与枪支暴力公共卫生视角 TVO Today 2026-10-09

安大略省政坛动态:OSAP改革、市政选举与枪支暴力公共卫生视角

关键字 student-assistance municipal-elections gun-violence public-health political-scandal
30 节

播客开场与本期要点

Steve Paikin:欢迎大家来到 #onpoli 播客。我是 Steve Paikin。

英文原文

Steve Paikin: Welcome everyone to the OnPoli podcast. I'm Steve Paikin.

John Michael McGrath:我是 John Michael McGrath。

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: I'm John Michael McGrath.

Steve Paikin:在今天的播客中,安大略省的私立职业学院被发现存在可疑情况后,省政府正对本省的学生资助计划(OSAP)进行重大改革。

英文原文

Steve Paikin: Today on the pod, the government is making big changes to the province's student assistance program after suspicious findings at Ontario's private colleges.

John Michael McGrath:我们将再次关注市政选举,这一次是密西沙加、米尔顿以及卡沃萨湖市。

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: We'll take another look at municipal elections, this time in Mississauga, Milton, and Kawartha Lakes.

Steve Paikin:政府议会领袖 Steve Clark 会因为他在绿带丑闻中扮演的角色而遭到申诫吗?一位自由党省议员希望强行发起这场辩论。而在专栏方面,在我的专栏中,我将谈论多伦多今年选举中一个更为离奇且持续已久的插曲。

英文原文

Steve Paikin: Will government house leader Steve Clark be reprimanded over his role in the greenbelt scandal? A Liberal MPP wants to force the debate. And in your column, my column, I'm going to talk about one of the stranger long-running subplots in Toronto's election this year.

John Michael McGrath:而我将继续留在省会城市,关注 Nate 与 Nat 之间最激烈的市议员竞选之一。此外,节目结束后请继续收听,我们还将带来一段关于枪支暴力的特别采访。今天是 2026 年 10 月 9 日,星期五。让我们马上进入正题。JMM 先生,

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: And I'm going to stay in the capital city for a look at one of the best races for council between Nate and Nat. Plus, stay with us after the show for a special interview on gun violence. It's Friday, October 9th, 2026. So, let's get to it. JMM sir,

开场调侃:大白鲨与市政政治

Steve Paikin:按照我们每一集开头的传统,先互相寒暄奉承一下。

英文原文

Steve Paikin: our traditional sugar as we start every episode.

John Michael McGrath:我今天看了你的衣服,对于那些收听播客的听众,我们应该描述一下:上面写着“艾米蒂岛欢迎您”,而且那件衬衫看起来就像……

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: And I looked at your shirt today and again for those listening on podcast, we should just describe it. It says Amity Island welcomes you and that shirt looks like a little

Steve Paikin:鲨鱼的鱼鳍。确实如此。

英文原文

Steve Paikin: fin from a shark. Yes, indeed.

John Michael McGrath:背鳍。

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: Dorsal fin.

Steve Paikin:我们这些上了年纪的人都记得很清楚,我想那是 1975 年的电影《大白鲨》。“砰、砰……”

英文原文

Steve Paikin: Those of us of a certain age well remember I think it was 1975. Dum-dum, dum-dum.

John Michael McGrath:是的,这当然是致敬电影《大白鲨》,任何看过这部电影的人都记忆犹新。但是你知道,我认为很重要的是要记住,鲨鱼并不是这部电影真正的反派。电影里的反派其实是那个市长——尽管接连发生鲨鱼袭击事件,他却依然坚持开放海滩。

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: So, yes, of course, this is a reference to the movie Jaws, and anybody who's seen the movie remembers it well. But you know, I think it's important to remember that the shark is not really the villain of the film. The villain of the film is the mayor who insists on keeping the beaches open despite a rash of shark attacks.

Steve Paikin:所以你聊什么总能绕回政治上。

英文原文

Steve Paikin: So, it always comes back to politics with you.

John Michael McGrath:总是能绕回政治。而且我们今天讨论市政政治的篇幅会比平时还要多。所以,我们得感到庆幸,虽然安大略省各地的市长水平参差不齐,但没有一个像艾米蒂岛的市长那么糟糕。

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: It always comes back to politics and we are going to be discussing municipal politics today even more than usual. And so you know, let's count our lucky stars that while there are mayors of varying qualities across Ontario, none are quite so bad as the mayor of Amity Island.

Steve Paikin:在电影里我都忘了他的角色名字叫什么了,但饰演他的是演员 Murray Hamilton。他把那个角色演绎得淋漓尽致:完全是一个毫无道德底线的人渣,一门心思只想开放海滩,好让艾米蒂岛能迎来一个经济繁荣的夏天。你说得很对,鲨鱼只是在做鲨鱼该做的事。

英文原文

Steve Paikin: You know, I forget his name in the movie, but Murray Hamilton was the actor who played him. And he was absolutely perfect in the role. He was a complete slimeball with no ethics. Only cared about keeping the beaches open so that Amity Island could enjoy, of course, a very economically buoyant summer. Yes. And you're right, the shark just does what sharks do.

John Michael McGrath:不,它只是一种自然力量,就像《侏罗纪公园》里的霸王龙一样。

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: No, it's just a force of nature like the T-Rex in Jurassic Park.

安大略省历史任期排名与 Doug Ford 的里程碑

Steve Paikin:没错,真正的问题是那个搞得一塌糊涂的该死市长。好的,这个观点很犀利。那么,我今天穿的代表哪位省长呢?我穿的是 Oliver Mowat。Oliver Mowat 是很久以前的省长了,要追溯到 19 世纪。但 Oliver Mowat 是安大略省历史上任职时间最长的省长。你可以想象一下,他担任安大略省省长近 24 年。我们来顺一下安大略省任期最长的前几位省长名单,你就会明白我这么做背后的缘由了。Oliver Mowat 排名第一。第二名,勾选一下,是 Bill Davis,他在 1971 年至 1985 年间担任省长近 14 年。第三名是 20 世纪 50 年代的 Leslie Frost。Doug Ford 正是在连续赢得三届多数政府这一点上追平了他;Leslie Frost 是最后一位连续赢得三届多数政府的人(1951 年、1955 年和 1959 年),他担任省长超过 12 年。第四名是被称为“董事会主席”的人,那就是 John Robarts,他在 1961 年至 1971 年担任省长,任期 9 年多。名单上的第五位是 Dalton McGuinty。没错,Dalton McGuinty。关于他的故事很有意思的一点是,他的任期只比 Robarts 少两天。我记得在他卸任后曾问过他:“你当时有没有想过请求 Kathleen Wynne 让你再多当三天省长,这样你就能在榜单上排名更靠前?”他说:“我其实知道这一点,但 Wynne 的团队希望交接按照他们期望的时间节点进行。”他说:“我认为顺应他们的意愿是我的职责。”所以他排在第五位,而不是第四位,尽管他如果想坚持的话,本可以排得更高。McGuinty 排在第五。再看看现在排在第六位的是谁:截至本周日,Doug Ford 将成为安大略省历史上任职时间第六长的省长。他是第 26 任省长,但已经跃居历史榜单的第六位了。截至本周日,他的任期达到 8 年 104 天,并将在周日超越名单上的第七名 Mitch Hepburn。Mitch Hepburn 以 8 年 103 天的任期曾排在这一位置。我记得他在 1934 年赢得了第一次多数席位,1937 年赢得了第二次多数席位。他是安大略省有史以来选出的最年轻的省长,当上省长时只有 37 岁。所以你看 Doug Ford,一直坚持下来,到现在截至周日就要成为历史任职第六长的省长了。

英文原文

Steve Paikin: Yeah, it's the damn mayor who couldn't get his act together. Okay, that's a good point. Well, okay. What premier am I wearing today? I am wearing Oliver Mowat. Oliver Mowat was the premier a long time ago. We're going back to the 19th century. But Oliver Mowat is the longest serving premier in Ontario history. He served, if you can imagine, almost 24 years as the premier of Ontario. And we're going to go down the list of some of the top longest serving premiers in Ontario, and you will see the method behind my madness. Oliver Mowat's number one. Number two, tick the box. There's Bill Davis. Almost 14 years as premier from 1971 to 1985. Number three, Leslie Frost back in the 1950s. This was the guy that Doug Ford matched in terms of three straight majority governments. Leslie Frost was the last guy to win three straight majority governments, 51, 55, and 59. And he served 12 plus years as premier. Number four, the man they called the chairman of the board. That's John Robarts. He was premier from 1961 to 1971 and he served nine plus years. Number five on the list is Dalton McGuinty. Yes, Dalton McGuinty. And what's interesting about his story, he served only two days fewer than Robarts. And I remember asking him after he left office, you know, did you think about asking Kathleen Wynne if you could hang around as premier for just three more days so you could have gone higher up the list? And he said, "I actually knew about that, but the Wynne people wanted the transition to take place when they wanted it to take place." And he said, "I thought it was my responsibility to accede to their wishes." So, no, he's number five on the list instead of number four. Even though if he wanted to be, you know, if he wanted to push it, he probably could have been higher up the list. So, McGuinty at number five. Look who's at number six now. Doug Ford is now, as of Sunday, going to be the sixth longest serving premier in Ontario history. He is the 26th premier and he's already number six on the list. Eight years, 104 days as of Sunday, and he will be passing on Sunday, number seven on the list, and that's Mitch Hepburn. Mitch Hepburn at 8 years and 103 days was the premier. I think he won his first majority in 34. He won his second majority in 37. He is the youngest premier we have ever chosen in the province of Ontario. 37 years old when he became premier. So how about Doug Ford going, you know, hanging around, hanging around, and now as of Sunday going to be the sixth longest serving premier of all time.

John Michael McGrath:我想我在 2025 年选举之夜就说过,你必须承认,随着他连续第三次赢得多数政府,仅凭其任职时间的长短,他就注定会成为安大略省历史上最具影响力的省长之一。而且,如果他一直任职到本届议会结束——我们尚不清楚具体会到什么时候,但假定还有四到五年——他在这份榜单上的名次还会继续上升几位。

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: Well, I think I said on election night in 2025, you had to grant that with a third straight majority, he was going to be one of the most consequential premiers in Ontario history just by dint of the sheer term of service. And if he serves until the end of this current legislature, and we don't know when that will be, but if you assume it will be four or five years, he's going to move a few more ranks up that list.

Steve Paikin:他会超越 McGuinty,也会超越 Robarts。我想他届时会升至第四位。确实如此。如果他想一直干到——让我想一想——如果他想干到 77 岁,他甚至能超越 Oliver Mowat。不过,不,我并不是在建议他这么做,我只是说数学推算的结果是这样。

英文原文

Steve Paikin: He will pass McGuinty, he will pass Robarts. He'd be number four, I guess. Yeah, indeed. And if he wants to serve until he's—let me just think for a second—if he wants to serve until he's 77 years old, he can pass Oliver Mowat. But oh no, I'm not suggesting it. I'm just saying that's what the math suggests.

John Michael McGrath:那确实符合算术逻辑,没错。

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: That would be arithmetic. Yes.

私立职业学院与 OSAP 资助调查风波

Steve Paikin:好了,这个名单就聊到这里。让我们转入我们需要探讨的核心内容,进入议题一。大家都知道,安大略省的高等教育体系由公立资助的学院和大学构成。但全省还有数百所私立职业学院,每年培养和教育数以万计的学生。然而,其中一些学院在学生资助计划(OSAP)资金的使用上亮起了红灯。本周,省政府已启动多项调查。JMM,这到底是怎么回事?

英文原文

Steve Paikin: All right. Enough of that list. Let's get on to what we need to talk about. Off to issue one. You know that Ontario's post-secondary education system is made up of publicly funded colleges and universities. But the province also has hundreds of privately run career colleges that train and educate tens of thousands of students annually. Some of those colleges, however, have raised red flags when it comes to student assistance program funding. And this week, the government has started multiple investigations. JMM, what's going on here?

John Michael McGrath:好的。上周加拿大通讯社(Canadian Press)根据《信息自由法》申请获取的资料报道——感谢记者们,感谢信息自由法——加通社报道称,流向这些职业学院学生的 OSAP 助学金数额极不寻常。我认为在这里交代一下背景非常重要:省政府是直接向大学和公立学院提供资金的;而这些职业学院的资金来源是学生缴纳的学费,但这些学费却有资格申请 OSAP 贷款和助学金,因此这就牵涉到了纳税人的钱。加通社的调查发现,7 所特定职业学院的 OSAP 拨款支出出现了极其庞大的增长,它们合计获得了 3.85 亿加元的 OSAP 助学金。在高达 2000 亿加元的省级财政预算大盘子中,这或许不算一笔天文数字,但它已经相当于拨给全省所有公立学院的 OSAP 助学金总和。目前这一事件也正在法律听证程序中展开审理,政府官员在听证中指控存在几种不同类型的——我夹带点个人评价,可以说是非常见不得光的行为。这些基本上归结为指控这些学院实质上是“文凭作坊”:虚构课程、招收虚假学生,以此套取实打实的真金白银。我们需要强调的是,这些指控尚未在法庭上得到证实。尽管如此,除了现有的法律程序外,政府已开展内部调查,并将此事移交给了安大略省省警(OPP),同时还要求审计长介入展开调查。审计长在调查过程中也可能发现新的材料,如果她发现存在刑事调查的依据,也可以将材料转交省警。除此以外,也许更为紧迫的是,政府目前还暂停了向所有职业学院发放的所有 OSAP 款项,这是相当雷厉风行且剧烈的一步……

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: Right. So last week the Canadian Press reported thanks to a Freedom of Information request—thank you journalists, thank you Freedom of Information laws—the CP reported that volumes of money that were being spent on OSAP grants for students at these career colleges were unusual. I think it's important to set here the context, right? The government funds universities and colleges directly. These career colleges are funded by their student fees, but those fees however are eligible for OSAP loans and grants. So tax dollars are implicated here. What the Canadian Press found was very large increase in OSAP costs for seven specific career colleges which collectively received $385 million in OSAP grants. That is not a huge sum in the context of a $200 billion budget, but it is equal to the OSAP grant funding that went to all publicly funded colleges. So, this is all playing out in a legal hearing at the moment as well where government officials allege a few different kinds of—I'm going to editorialize you say shady conduct—that all basically amount to these colleges being, again the allegation is, that they are diploma mills functionally, that they are creating fake classes enrolling fake students to collect very real money. These allegations we need to emphasize have not been proven in court. Nevertheless, on top of the existing legal proceedings, the government has done its own internal investigations and referred this matter both to the Ontario Provincial Police and they have asked the auditor general to step in as well and investigate. The auditor general in the course of her investigation might also uncover material that she can also refer to the OPP if she finds that there's grounds for a criminal investigation. On top of that, and maybe more immediately, the government is also pausing all OSAP payments to all career colleges, which is a pretty precipitous step to

安省私立职业学院整顿与学生面临的学业动荡

主持人:……新学年才刚刚开始一个月。

英文原文

Host: ...take a month into the new academic year.

分析员:确实完全如此。我的意思是,如果你处于那个处境——我们现在到哪个月份了?十月。所以,这些学生已经在学校上了一个月的课了。他们显然已经办好了各自的助学贷款,选好了所有的课程,也定好了各自的学校,并且正在正常就读。然而,如果像省政府目前似乎正在做的那样,突然踩下急刹车,你就有可能会彻底打乱这里成千上万名学生的学业生活。但归根结底,这个问题的症结在于,总共有多达十亿加元的资金流向了这些私立职业学院;因此,纳税人确实有切身利益去关注这笔钱究竟是如何被花掉的,对吧?

英文原文

Analyst: Well, absolutely. I mean, if you are, where are we now? October. So, these students have been in school for a month. They obviously have their loans and their classes and their schools all chosen and they're going and all of a sudden if you pump the brakes as the government appears to be doing, you have the potential of kind of disrupting the educational lives of thousands of students here. But the gist of this is there's a billion dollars in total going to these private career colleges and as a result, you mean the taxpayer does have an interest to see how that money is spent?

主持人:是的,毫无疑问。那么在目前这个阶段,我们所知道的这个问题究竟有多大、有多严重?

英文原文

Host: Yes, absolutely. How big and how serious a problem do we know this to be at this stage of the game?

分析员:正如我之前提到的,安大略省全省有数百所这样的学院。而根据调查——至少从加新社(Canadian Press / CP)的深入报道所阐明的情况来看——调查确实重点集中在其中问题最严重的七所学校上,但省政府也提出了一些其他方面的关切。必须指出的是,该行业中最早对相关问题发出预警的群体之一,其实正是职业学院自身。他们的行业组织——安大略职业学院协会(Career Colleges Ontario)早在2023年就发出警告,指出体制内部存在一些不良行为者,并力劝省政府必须对此采取应对措施。然而,看来政府当时并没有及时听取他们的警告。

正如我所说,省政府表示他们还有其他合理的担忧理由。比如,一些名义上彼此独立合法的学院,不知为何却拥有完全相同的实际控制人,并且共用同一个登记地址;还有人质疑这些场所作为实际运营的学院是否具备真实资质。此外,在某些案例中,这些学院似乎还与移民中介招聘机构同处一址。因此,关于那里到底在上演什么勾当,存在着大量的严重疑问。

英文原文

Analyst: So, as I mentioned earlier, there are hundreds of these colleges around Ontario and the investigation, at least as the CP's reporting elaborated, you know really does focus on seven of the most problematic ones, but the government has raised some other issues. It's important to say that some of the people warning earliest about problems in the sector were in fact the career colleges themselves. Their association, Career Colleges Ontario, warned as far back as 2023 that there were some bad actors within the system and they were warning the government that something had to be done. They were not listened to in a timely manner it seems.

As I mentioned, the province has said that they have other grounds for concern. Things like nominally separate colleges that all somehow share the same ownership and the same address, questions about how genuine these places are as actual operating colleges. They also in some cases seem to be collocated with immigration recruitment firms. So lots of questions about what is exactly going on there.

主持人:人们完全可以把这些线索串联起来——尽管我们应当谨慎不要贸然下定论——但你完全可以明白为什么调查人员对此高度关注。

英文原文

Host: You can connect dots here which we should be careful not to do, but you can see why investigators are interested.

分析员:是的。这正是属于那种——虽然目前还没有人铁证如山地证明已经起火,但周围显然弥漫着浓烟的情况,如果我可以这么形容的话。

英文原文

Analyst: Yes. This is one of those cases where nobody has proven fire, but there sure seems to be some smoke around, if I could put it that way. [snorts]

主持人:所以,对这些学院和这些学生来说,这确实是一个影响巨大且极具颠覆性的通告。安大略职业学院协会已经请求省政府重新考虑这种激进而仓促的严厉举措,因为就我们目前掌握的情况来看,绝大多数学生以及绝大多数职业学院本身并没有做错任何事情。不过,算清账目在这里非常关键:通过安省学生援助计划(OSAP),总计有十亿加元的纳税人公款流向了这些私立职业学院,而在数百所职业学院当中,仅仅七所学校就拿走了这十亿巨资中的三亿四千五百万加元。

英文原文

Host: So this is very genuinely a very big disruptive announcement for these colleges, for these students. Career Colleges Ontario has asked the government to sort of reconsider this very large and precipitous step because, as far as we know right now, the vast majority of students and the vast majority of career colleges have not done anything wrong. Again, math is important here. So there's a billion dollars of tax money in total through the OSAP program going to these private career colleges, and seven of the hundreds of career colleges get 345 million of that billion.

分析员:是的。

英文原文

Analyst: Yes.

主持人:仅仅七所学校。

英文原文

Host: Just seven.

分析员:是的。

英文原文

Analyst: Yes.

主持人:所以再次说明,到底有没有起火我不敢断言,但浓烟……

英文原文

Host: So again, fire I don't know, smoke...

分析员:看来确实存在,确实如此。

英文原文

Analyst: seems to be. Yes.

OSAP学生资助政策紧缩与全省学子的连带代价

主持人:对。那么好的,这些连锁反应并不仅限于这里的私立职业学院,对吧?它的波及范围远不止于此。

英文原文

Host: Yeah. So okay, the effects aren't limited just to career colleges here, right? It goes beyond that.

分析员:没错。我们的听众应该还记得,今年早些时候,省政府对安省学生援助计划(OSAP)以及OSAP各项资助的具体分配机制做出了重大调整。他们当时声称,削减的原因是OSAP体系内部出现了不可持续的成本增长。因此,他们将沉重的财政负担转嫁到了普通学生身上:原来的资助体系大部分是以无需偿还的助学金(grants)形式发放,而政府将其转向越来越依赖贷款(loans)。既然是贷款,显然未来就必须全额偿还,因此广大学生不得不背负更多的个人经济压力。

再次强调,政府当时给出的理由是OSAP系统的总运营成本在急剧攀升。然而,加新社的调查报道再次揭示出,OSAP总开支的绝大部分增长,实际上正是具体来自于这批职业学院。根据他们的权威统计,在2023年至2024年之间,OSAP助学金总增量支出的95%,全都流向了这几所问题学院!安省自由党省议员兼高等教育事务评论员泰勒·瓦特(Tyler Watt)指出,全省各地的普通学生之所以被迫为自己的大学学业承担更高的成本,全都是因为极少数害群之马的恶劣行径。他在一份公开声明中明确表示:“省政府在处理一个原本只需要精细柳叶刀的问题时,却粗暴地抡起了大斧头。”

英文原文

Analyst: Right. So our audience will recall earlier this year the government made some major changes to OSAP and how OSAP supports were partitioned out. They said that the reason was unsustainable cost growth in the OSAP system. And so they shifted the burden on students from a system where most supports were being distributed as grants to one where it was increasingly reliant on loans. Loans obviously having to be repaid, and so students bore more of the financial burden.

And again, the government cited increasing costs of the OSAP system. But what again the CP's reporting has found is that most of the growth in OSAP spending was coming specifically from these career colleges. By their count, 95% of the increased spending in OSAP grants between 2023 and 2024 went to these problematic colleges. Ontario Liberal MPP and critic Tyler Watt says that students across the province were made to bear increased costs for their own education because of a handful of bad actors, saying in a release, quote, "the government took a hatchet to a problem that needed a scalpel."

技能发展基金争议与保罗·戈弗雷法庭宣誓指控

主持人:哼,政府有时就是会干出这种事。有时候对他们来说,先一刀切、把所有人都一概而论,然后再慢慢理清头绪要省事得多。不过是的,我完全赞同他的见解。现在,谈到我们刚才一直在聊的职业技能培训话题,我们在整个“技能发展基金”(Skills Development Fund)的风波上也迎来了一个相当不寻常的最新进展。咱们暂且就称它为一场轩然大波吧。好的。这里可能需要先交代一点背景信息,因为我们要把大家的记忆带回到技能发展基金的那场争议中——在某些案件中,这笔基金似乎直接流向了进步保守党(Tories)的亲朋好友手中。我们可以这么表述吗?

英文原文

Host: H governments sometimes do that. Sometimes it's easier to paint everybody with a broad brush and then figure it out afterwards. But yeah, I take his point. Now, on the subject of job training, which we have been talking about here, we do have a bit of an unusual update on the whole skills development fund fufura. Let's call it that. Okay. And again, maybe a little background's required here because we are going to take people back to the skills development fund which seemed to go to friends of Tories in some cases. Do we want to put it that way?

分析员:是的。核心问题在于,设立这个技能发展基金的初衷,概括来说原本是用于职业培训专项拨款的,但它似乎非常频繁地流向了与进步保守党关系密切的企业或其他组织,或者流向了曾向进步保守党捐款的资助者。在这些调查中被曝光的公司之一是一家名为 Keel Digital Solutions 的机构,大体上说它是一家在线数字学习公司。他们通过技能发展基金获取了大笔资助,但省政府后来指控 Keel 公司存在某些违规不当行为,安省高校与大学部随即冻结了对该公司的所有资金拨款,直接导致该公司在本周被法院勒令进入破产接管程序。

Keel 公司的首席执行官是罗伯·戈弗雷(Rob Godfrey),他是保守党显赫政商名流保罗·戈弗雷(Paul Godfrey)的儿子。而老保罗·戈弗雷曾历任邮报传媒(Postmedia)的首席执行官和董事会主席,Postmedia 当然是加拿大规模最大的报业集团之一……

英文原文

Analyst: Yeah. So the issue was this skills development fund was supposed to be, you know basically broadly speaking, job training money, and it seemed to very frequently go to firms or other organizations who were close to the progressive conservative party or who had made donations to the progressive conservative party. And one of the companies that came up in these investigations was Keel Digital Solutions, which was, broadly speaking, an online learning company. And they had received money through the skills development fund, and the government named Keel as a company having engaged in some misconduct. They had their funding through the ministry of colleges and universities frozen, leading this week to the company being ordered into receivership.

Keel CEO was Rob Godfrey, a son of prominent conservative and businessman Paul Godfrey, who was the CEO and then chairman of Postmedia, who of course is one of the largest newspaper chains...

主持人:……而且他还是多伦多蓝鸟棒球队(Blue Jays)的前任总裁、大多伦多大都会区(Metropolitan Toronto)的前任市政委员会主席,在政坛打拼了多年,保罗·戈弗雷的从政历史可以说是非常资深了。

分析员:嗯,所以,我们这就说到了保罗·戈弗雷。在 Keel 公司破产接管程序的正式法庭文件中,保罗·戈弗雷宣誓指控称,安省省长办公室曾强迫并施压他利用自己在 Postmedia 报业集团的人脉关系,在该集团旗下的所有报纸上发表一封公开信,作为道格·福特(Doug Ford)省长2025年选前宣传攻势的一部分。当然,我必须在这里明确向《Trillium》的调查团队致敬,是他们最先独家披露了这则重磅报道。

所谓的威胁手段是:省长办公室放话称,如果他不能设法让那封信发表在 Postmedia 旗下的报纸上,他儿子的公司就将被剥夺并停止一切政府资金支持!现在必须郑重澄清的是,省长办公室坚决否认了这一指控,斥责其“纯属捏造,完全脱离事实真相”。此外还必须指出,到2025年时,保罗·戈弗雷在法定和组织架构上已经不再与 Postmedia 集团有任何正式关联——他既不再担任首席执行官,也不再是执行董事长。根据《Trillium》记者的后续调查,Postmedia 集团官方也公开否认对戈弗雷所描述的任何内情知情。

英文原文

Host: ...and former president of the Blue Jays and former chairman of Metropolitan Toronto had a long career in politics and he goes way back, Paul Godfrey.

Analyst: Um, so, that's how we get to Paul Godfrey, who alleges in court documents as part of Keel's receivership that he was compelled by the premier's office to use his connections to Postmedia to publish a letter across that chain's newspapers as part of Ford's pre-election messaging in 2025. And I of course want to credit the folks at the Trillium who broke this story. The threat, so to speak, was that if he did not get that letter published in Postmedia's papers, that his son's company would be denied funding.

Now, to be very clear, the premier's office flatly denies this claim, calling it categorically untrue and disconnected from reality. And it's important to note that by 2025, Godfrey was no longer formally connected to Postmedia. He was no longer CEO, was no longer the executive chairman, and the company Postmedia—again, reporting from the Trillium here—the company denies any knowledge of what Godfrey described.

主持人:这是一起非同寻常的惊人爆料,因为保罗·戈弗雷是多伦多乃至整个安省和加拿大国内声望极高、资历最深的保守派元老之一。而他竟然会对与自己在政治立场上本应保持高度一致的进步保守党政府抛出如此严重的指控,这本身就极其耐人寻味。话虽如此,在这整起风波中,他儿子的个人声誉显然也遭受了严重打击。因此,我们必须立即强调:所有这些目前都只是法庭上的指控,没有任何一项已经在司法审理中被证实为真,对吧?

英文原文

Host: This is a pretty extraordinary story because Paul Godfrey is one of the sort of longest in good standing conservatives in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. And the notion that he would make this allegation about the progressive conservative government, to which you would think he would be somewhat aligned, is pretty extraordinary. Having said that, his son's reputation has also been affected here throughout all this. So, we hasten to add these are all allegations. Nothing's been proven in court. Right.

分析员:完全正确。这是向法庭提交的正式宣誓证词,正如所有宣誓证词一样,在法律理论上它承受着伪证罪的严厉制裁风险,但这绝不意味着它在司法裁决层面已经得到任何实质证实。而且你知道,它可能永远也无法被证实,因为现实中这类政治司法争议往往就是这样不了了之。既然我们谈到了他与 Postmedia 报业集团的历史渊源,我认为有件事非常值得一提:《Trillium》曾就此事联系 Postmedia 寻求回应,我在这里概括一下他们的表态,报业集团的意思基本上是说:安大略省省长如果想在我们报纸上发表一封信,根本就用不着施加什么人身或政治威胁;如果安省省长或者任何一位极具知名度的重量级政界要人想要在我们的观点言论版面刊发文章,我们随时都敞开大门热烈欢迎。

英文原文

Analyst: Correct. It is sworn testimony in court and at least theoretically carries the possibility of perjury as all sworn testimony does, but it has not been proven in any sense. And you know, it might never be because sometimes that happens. And while we're talking about his connection to Postmedia, I think one of the things worth saying is, you know, one of the responses Postmedia said to the Trillium was—I'm going to summarize here, but basically said—like it would not require a threat for us to publish the letter from the premier of Ontario. If the premier of Ontario or any major prominent politician wants to run something in our opinion pages, like they're welcome to.

主持人:只要直接开口打个招呼就行了嘛。(笑)

分析员:对,差不多就是这个意思,一点没错。所以你看,关于这项指控,至少存在着诸多非常值得推敲和追问的疑点。但在当前的政治和司法语境下,有人竟然公开抛出如此重磅的指控,这着实非同凡响。而且毫无疑问,我预料省议会反对党绝对会……

英文原文

Host: You just have to ask. [laughter]

Analyst: Yeah, pretty much. That's right. So you know, there are at the very least there are questions to ask about this allegation, but it is an extraordinary allegation to be made in this context. And it is certainly the kind of thing that I would expect the opposition...

市政选举观察:密西沙加市长选战升温

Steve Paikin:……这些议题在市政选举结束后的几周内,等省议会复会进入质询环节时,各党派肯定都会提出来。

英文原文

Steve Paikin: ...parties to be bringing up in question period when the legislature resumes sitting uh just a few weeks from now after the municipal elections.

John Michael McGrath:说到市政选举,哥们儿,过渡得漂亮!进入第二个话题。又到了我们常规栏目“市政选举观察”(Municipal Election Watch)的时间了。我们为想这个栏目名字熬了一整夜,对吧?[笑声] 没错。不管怎样,我们正在倒计时迎接10月26日全省444个市镇举行的换届选举。本周,我们首先从首府多伦多正西边的城市——密西沙加(Mississauga)开始。目前那里正在上演一场尤为激烈的市长选战。天哪,我看了一周半前他们的一场辩论录像,哇,场面真是不一般。

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: And speaking of municipal elections, nice segue, buddy. Off to issue two. Time once again for our regular feature called Municipal Election Watch. We stayed up all night thinking of that title, didn't we? [laughter] Yeah. Anyway, we countdown to the local elections that are taking place in this province in 444 municipalities on the 26th of October. This week, we're going to start off with the city just to the west of the capital, and that is Mississauga, where they have one of the more vicious mayor's races going on right now. Holy smokes. So, I saw some of the tape from one of the debates, I guess it was a week and a half ago or something like that. And wow.

Steve Paikin:是啊。[笑声] 我们的观众可能还记得,这在某种程度上是一场重赛,或许说是复仇之战……

英文原文

Steve Paikin: Yeah. So, [laughter] our audience probably recalls that this is something of a rematch, perhaps a grudge match between...

John Michael McGrath:或许可以说是一场笼斗(cage match)。

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: ...perhaps a cage match...

Steve Paikin:……在前市长邦妮·克龙比(Bonnie Crombie)与卡罗琳·帕里什(Carolyn Parrish)之间展开。克龙比当然也曾是安大略省自由党党魁。克龙比曾任密西沙加市长,后来离职去竞选并担任自由党党魁;帕里什随后在克龙比离职后举行的补选中赢得了市长一职。现在克龙比又试图夺回她的旧职位。但还不止于此,因为这场选战还包括了上一届补选中的另外两位候选人:阿尔文·泰乔(Alvin Tedjo)和迪皮卡·达默拉(Dipika Damerla)。这四位候选人上周举行了一场辩论,我想完全可以说现场火药味十足。

英文原文

Steve Paikin: ...between former mayor Bonnie Crombie, who was of course also former Ontario Liberal leader, and Carolyn Parrish. Crombie was the mayor. She left to become Liberal leader. Parrish then won that office in the special election that followed Crombie's departure. And now Crombie is trying to get her old job back. But that's not all, because this race also includes two other candidates from the prior election, Alvin Tedjo and Dipika Damerla. So these four candidates held a debate last week, and it's I think safe to say things got a bit heated.

John Michael McGrath:何止是有点激烈,简直是火爆过头了。[笑声]

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: Oh no, they got more than a bit heated. [laughter]

Steve Paikin:确实如此。帕里什在辩论中称克龙比为“金发尤物”(blonde bombshell),并声称市政厅的工作人员对她重返市长办公室感到恐惧万分。这只是从那场辩论中剪辑出的几个火药味十足的片段之一。事后,我想所有四位候选人在冷静下来之后,都在不同程度上承认,怎么说呢,这绝不是苏格拉底式高水平辩论的典范。[笑声]

多亏了联络策略公司(Liaison Strategies)的民调,我们掌握了关于此事的民意数据。他们询问了选民对目前选战的感受,结果并不怎么好看:31%的受访者对民调机构表示,到目前为止的竞选活动大部分都是人身攻击;只有17%的人认为这大体上是一场公正平等的辩论;另有30%的人表示两者兼而有之。虽然竞争趋于白热化,但我看到其他民调显示,克龙比和帕里什之间的差距只有几个百分点。而身为市议员的阿尔文·泰乔,在选战中的支持率也有所攀升。我认为目前排名前三的候选人彼此差距都在10个百分点以内,战况越来越焦灼了。

英文原文

Steve Paikin: Yeah. Um, Parrish referred to Crombie as the blonde bombshell and alleged that city staff were terrified of her return to the mayor's office. Um, that was just one of the spicier clips that got pulled from that debate. In the aftermath, I think all four candidates, when they had a moment to cool down, acknowledged to varying degrees that this was not, how to put this, it was not the height of Socratic debate. [laughter]

Um, and we got some polling about exactly this issue thanks to Liaison Strategies. They asked how voters feel about the race so far. It's not great. 31% of respondents told the pollster the campaign so far has mostly been personal attacks, while only 17% described it as mostly fair debate. Another 30% say it has been a mix of both. Although the race has tightened, I've seen other polling which says Crombie and Parrish are within a few points of each other. And then Alvin Tedjo, who's a member of council, has sort of moved himself up into the race. And I think all three of the top candidates now are all within about 10 points of each other. So, it's closer.

John Michael McGrath:正如你所说,竞争确实变得越来越紧咬。在早期的民调中,泰乔显得非常吃力,但现在他显然已经追赶了上来,可以说他现在具备了相当的竞争力。不过,克龙比和帕里什之间也绝对是一场并驾齐驱的胶着对决。

现在,我们这个节目偶尔也喜欢聊聊政策。我们现在就来讨论一下政策,因为完全可以说,在密西沙加的交通规划方面,邦妮·克龙比提出了一个非常引人入胜的政策设想。你要不要来谈谈这个?

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: It's definitely gotten much closer as you say. Tedjo, who I think in some of the earlier polling had really struggled or seemed to be struggling, has definitely come up to the point where I think you would say he's much more competitive now. Um, but definitely a neck-and-neck race between Crombie and Parrish as well.

Now, we do like to talk about policy from time to time on this show, every once in a while. And we're going to do that right now because I think it's fair to say Bonnie Crombie has advanced one of the more intriguing policy options as it relates to transit planning in Mississauga. You want to take that?

交通政策争议:地铁西延与政治阻力

Steve Paikin:好的。克龙比承诺要将多伦多公车局(TTC)的2号线地铁进行西延。也就是我们过去常说的布鲁亚-丹佛斯线(Bloor-Danforth line),从基普林站(Kipling Station)向西延伸进入密西沙加,直达第一广场(Square One)。联络策略公司的民调显示,65%的选民支持这一想法。但是,当被要求在TTC地铁延伸线与增加穿过密西沙加的GO火车米尔顿线(Milton line)班次之间做出选择时——给那些脑海里没有GO火车线路图的人提个醒——这两种方案的支持率基本平分秋色。

而且我很赞赏联络策略公司问了这样一个问题:他们询问受访者对于地铁延伸线最终能否真正建成有多大信心。结果以三比一的悬殊比例,大家对此持相当怀疑的态度。

英文原文

Steve Paikin: Right. So, Crombie has promised to extend TTC's Line 2 subway. This is what we used to call the Bloor-Danforth line west from Kipling Station into Mississauga into Square One. Again, polling from Liaison finds that 65% of voters support the idea. But when asked to choose between a TTC subway extension or more frequent GO train service on the Milton line, which runs through Mississauga—for people who don't have the GO train map memorized—support between those two ideas is roughly evenly split.

And I like that Liaison asked this question: they asked how confident respondents were that the subway extension might actually get built. And by a three-to-one margin, they are pretty skeptical.

John Michael McGrath:很有意思的是,我们都知道邦妮·克龙比和道格·福特(Doug Ford)之间的嫌隙,然而这招却完全抄了福特的执政战术手册,那就是“地铁、地铁、还是地铁”。显然,她不可能凭一己之力做到这一点,如果真能落地,这将是一个耗资数十亿加元的浩大工程。因此,她需要多伦多市、安大略省政府,甚至可能还需要联邦政府出资支持并达成一致协议。

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: Well, it's interesting that we know the antipathy between Bonnie Crombie and Doug Ford, and yet this is a play right out of the Ford playbook, which is to say: subways, subways, subways. Now, she can't do this on her own obviously; this is a multi-billion dollar project if it ever happens. So she would need agreement from both the City of Toronto, presumably the Province of Ontario, and maybe even the feds to kick in some money as well.

Steve Paikin:没错。比如当年多伦多市将士巴丹拿(Spadina)地铁线延伸至约克区旺市(Vaughan)时,就是一份三方协议。联邦政府在此类项目上可能会出资,也可能不会,但至少我认为多伦多市必须同意,因为最终运营这条线路的将是TTC。然后,你也离不开省政府,因为现实地说,建设资金要从那里来。这就带来了一些现实问题。

现在我们暂时从政策回到政治层面讨论一下:将2号线地铁延伸到密西沙加,必然会在客观上让怡陶碧谷(Etobicoke)地铁乘客的通勤变得更加拥挤艰难。也许影响不会太大,也许有一点,但客流量肯定会增加。你认识哪位来自怡陶碧谷、可能对此有看法的政客吗?

英文原文

Steve Paikin: Yeah. So when, for example, the City of Toronto extended the Spadina subway line into York Region up to Vaughan, that was a tripartite agreement. You know, the feds might or might not show up for something like this, but at a minimum I would say you probably need the City of Toronto to agree because it's going to be the TTC that ends up having to run this. And then you also need the province because that's where the money is going to come from realistically. And that does pose some problems.

Now, we're going to go from policy back into politics for a moment here and say: extending the Line 2 subway into Mississauga sort of mechanically and inevitably is going to make the commute for Etobicoke subway riders a little bit more difficult. Maybe not a lot, maybe a little, but you're going to add passengers. Do you know any politicians from Etobicoke who might have a view on this?

John Michael McGrath:我还真认识。事实上,我们早些时候就提到过他。他恰好是北怡陶碧谷选区的省议员,同时也是现任安大略省省长。

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: I do. In fact, we've mentioned him earlier. He happens to hold the seat for Etobicoke North and also the premier of Ontario.

Steve Paikin:哈,[笑声] 这就对上了。好的。

英文原文

Steve Paikin: Oh, [laughter] there we go. Okay.

John Michael McGrath:所以,单单这一点就足以引人深思。但别忘了,道格·福特在邦妮·克龙比的问题上可绝非中立客。[笑声] 他毫不含糊地明确表示,希望看到她在这次市长选举中落败,并承诺将派出大队人马确保卡罗琳·帕里什成功连任。那么,道格·福特真的会大开省财政的金库促成此事,仅仅为了给邦妮·克龙比送去政绩助攻吗?我深表怀疑。[笑声]

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: And so just on its own, that's something to consider. But then you've got the point that Doug Ford is not neutral on the topic of Bonnie Crombie. [laughter] He has said in no uncertain terms that he wants to see her defeated in this mayor election, and has promised to send an army to ensure that Carolyn Parrish is reelected. So is Doug Ford really going to open up the provincial wallet to make this thing happen just so that he can help out Bonnie Crombie? I am skeptical. [laughter]

观众来信选登:卡沃萨湖市与选票上的“道格·福特”

Steve Paikin:就当你是持怀疑态度吧。好吧,无论如何我们继续往下看。上周我们向观众征集了意见,请大家发来邮件,谈谈你们心目中本届市政选举中哪些选战最引人注目,不少观众都发来了回复。所以我们梳理了“市政选举观察”收到的部分听众邮件,不如现在就来看看其中的几封。首先是哪一封?

英文原文

Steve Paikin: Call you skeptical. All right. Well, let's move on anyway here, because last week we put the call out to people to please send us your views on what you think the great races in the municipal election campaigns are, and a bunch of you have done that. So we went through for our municipal election watch some of the emails we got from people, and why don't we take a look at some of those right now. What's up first?

John Michael McGrath:好的。我们收到了一封来自卡沃萨湖市(Kawartha Lakes)居民的邮件,我们在此隐去了对方的姓名。信中写道:“嘿,《ONPoli》。我们现任市长道格·埃尔姆斯利(Doug Elmsley)每周五都准时收看《ONPoli》。我相信他和其他人都会非常想听听JMM对我们卡沃萨湖市政选举的看法。埃尔姆斯利市长自2006年起担任市议员,如今即将卸任市长职位。我们非常感谢他为社区服务了20年。如果史蒂夫·帕金和JMM能在镜头前说出这句话,那真是再好不过了。”

我觉得我们可以做到这一点。埃尔姆斯利市长,感谢您多年来的付出与服务![笑声]

来信还提供了几条关于卡沃萨湖市选情的背景供我们参考:“有两位现任市议员正在竞选议员席位,此外还有另外三名候选人。但有一位市长候选人的名字一定会引起你们观众的注意——道格·福特(Doug Ford)。我知道这对多伦多/大多伦多地区的观众来说总是很令人惊讶。另外一个有趣的市政选举事实是:在举行换届选举的414个市镇中,有超过270个正在使用网络投票,其中许多市镇甚至完全不使用纸质选票。”

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: Right. So, we have an email from someone who we are choosing not to identify up in Kawartha Lakes. It reads, "Hey, #onpoli. Our current mayor Doug Elmsley watches #onpoli religiously every Friday. I'm sure he and others would be quite interested to hear JMM's take on our municipal election in Kawartha Lakes. Mayor Elmsley is stepping down as mayor after serving on council since 2006. We definitely thank him for 20 years of service to the community. And if [laughter] Steve Paikin and JMM said that on camera, nothing would make him happy."

I think we can do that. Mayor Elmsley, thank you for your service. [laughter]

Um, a couple of notes on Kawartha Lakes's interest for your research: "Two current counselors are running for council, plus three other candidates. But one mayoral candidate's name would get your viewers' attention: Doug Ford. And I know it's always surprising to the Toronto/GTA. But another interesting municipal election fact is that of the 414 municipalities running elections, over 270 are using internet voting, many with no paper ballots at all."

Steve Paikin:这难道不很有意思吗?好的,我们能切出相关的画面吗?我们能看看印有“道格·福特”名字的选票画面吗?画面来了。果然在那儿,道格·福特。当然不是那个道格·福特。好吧,我想这取决于你是谁,但[笑声] 这位并不是省长道格·福特。

英文原文

Steve Paikin: Isn't that interesting? Okay, do we have a shot of this? Do we have a shot of Doug Ford's name on the ballot? Here it comes. And there he is, Doug Ford. Not the Doug Ford. Well, I guess it depends who you are, but it's not [laughter] it's not the Premier Doug Ford.

John Michael McGrath:说不定人家觉得自己才是正牌道格·福特呢。

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: Thinks he's the Doug Ford.

Steve Paikin:哈哈,你说得对。确实,又有一位道格·福特出来竞选公职了。实际上,这可能会引起一点混淆——谁知道到底会造成多大的困惑呢。但如果你看看多伦多市长的选票,我想……

英文原文

Steve Paikin: Yes, you're right about that. Yes, but another Doug Ford is running for office. And actually, there's a little—who knows how much confusion this will actually be. But if you look at the ballot for mayor of Toronto as well, and I think...

多伦多选票上的同名混淆与历史重演

John Michael McGrath:我是说,我们都知道这次角逐市长职位的两位领跑候选人是邹至蕙(Chow)和布拉德福德(Bradford),但实际上有50多个人竞选市长。而且候选人名单里有两个姓邹(Chow)的。

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: I mean, we know of the two top candidates running, Chow and Bradford, but there's something like 50 plus people who are actually running for mayor. And there's two named Chow.

Steve Paikin:没错,还有一位名叫布雷登·邹(Braden Chow)的候选人。这甚至导致这位全国最大城市的现任市长不得不专门向她的支持者说明——我记得她在选票的第九行。

英文原文

Steve Paikin: Yes. There's also a Braden Chow, which has led to the incumbent mayor of the country's largest city having to inform her supporters specifically like—I think she's on line nine on the ballot.

John Michael McGrath:按字母顺序,布雷登·邹(Braden Chow)排在邹至蕙(Olivia Chow)前面,对吧?

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: Well, she'd be—Braden Chow comes ahead of Olivia Chow, right?

Steve Paikin:是的,所以她正在呼吁选民一定要看准并勾选正确的方框。

英文原文

Steve Paikin: Yes. And so she's asking people to make sure they tick the right box.

John Michael McGrath:所以千万别直接顺着名单往下看,一看到“Chow”就勾选第一个“Chow”。不,如果你想选邹至蕙,得继续顺着名单往下找。而且,如果要说清楚这里面的潜在问题——如果最终选情极其胶着,我们当中有些人恐怕会产生2000年佛罗里达州计票惨剧带来的创伤后应激障碍(PTSD),对吧?

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: So yeah, don't just go down the list and say, "Oh, Chow, take the first Chow." No, if you want Olivia Chow, keep going down the list. Well, and if you know, just maybe to spell out the problem here. But if it ends up being like a really close race, some of us are going to have PTSD from Florida year 2000 election counting horror stories, right?

Steve Paikin:其实你甚至不用拿佛罗里达州举例。请原谅我又要倚老卖老回忆往事了,但让我们把视线拉回到1981年的安大略省。在帕里湾(Parry Sound)选区,后来担任安省财政厅长兼省长的厄尼·埃夫斯(Ernie Eves),在1981年作为比尔·戴维斯(Bill Davis)团队的一员首次参选。当时正好有另一位姓戴维斯(Davis)的候选人与厄尼·埃夫斯同台竞争。埃夫斯先生后来亲口告诉我,在那次选举中他听到许多选民说:“哎呀,这多好啊!我们可以在同一张选票上同时投给埃夫斯先生和戴维斯先生。”于是他们两个名字都勾选了,结果直接导致选票作废。你知道在那场选举中厄尼·埃夫斯最终赢了多少票吗?

英文原文

Steve Paikin: You don't have to go to Florida. Okay, here's my—sorry, my old fogy moment here, but let's go back to 1981 in the province of Ontario. In the riding of Parry Sound, Ernie Eves, who would be a future finance minister and premier, Ernie Eves was running for the first time in 1981 on the Bill Davis team. And there was another candidate whose last name was Davis running against Ernie Eves. And Mr. Eves tells me that he heard from numerous people in that election who said, "Oh, isn't this nice? We can vote for Mr. Eves and Mr. Davis on the same ballot." And they checked both names, which is as a result, that's a spoiled ballot. Do you know how many votes Ernie Eves won by in that election?

John Michael McGrath:那可是出了名的微弱优势,对吧?六票。

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: Famously a tiny fraction, right? Six.

Steve Paikin:他就赢了六票。选举当天算出来是赢了十票,后来重新计票,缩水到了六票。所以这些让人提心吊胆的细枝末节——选票上有两个姓邹的;或者在其他市镇选举中,选票上出现了与省长同名的“道格·福特(Doug Ford)”,究竟有多少人会仅仅因为支持或反对现任省长,就投票或不投票给那位同名的市政候选人?谁说得准呢。总之,仔细看清你的选票,这是最核心的要点。

英文原文

Steve Paikin: He won by six. 10 on election day and then they did a recount and it knocked it down to six. So these kinds of scurrying little things—oh, two Chows on the ballot; Doug Ford's name on the ballot. How many people will either vote for or not vote for Doug Ford in that other municipal election because they're either wanting to or not wanting to vote for the premier? Who knows? Anyway, be careful when you look at your ballots. That's the main point.

对电子投票态度的转变

Steve Paikin:我们继续看下一个话题。

英文原文

Steve Paikin: Moving on.

John Michael McGrath:不,在继续之前,我还真想聊聊电子投票(electronic voting)。我认为这可能是我个人彻底转变看法的议题之一。当各个市镇最初开始推行电子投票时,我其实非常怀疑,而且很担心它会搞砸。我觉得任何对常规网络安全稍有了解的人,对网络投票保持至少一点点的谨慎都是合情合理的。但事实证明,这似乎并没有演变成什么问题。现在这显然已经不是各市镇走向数字化的第一个选举周期了,正如听众来信提到的,卡沃萨湖市(Kawartha Lakes)只是采纳电子投票的众多市镇之一。虽然我还不确定自己是否准备好在省级或联邦层面推荐网络投票,但这确实是一件在刚推出时让我非常非常担忧、而实际表现却远没有我当初忧虑得那么严重的事情。

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: Well, no, before we move on, I do want to say something about electronic voting. And I think this might be one of those topics that I have sort of changed my mind on. You know, when municipalities first started rolling out electronic voting, I was really skeptical and I was really worried that it was going to go badly. And I think anybody who knows anything about internet security generally would be right to be at least a little bit cautious about internet voting. And it doesn't seem to have been a problem. This is now certainly not our first election cycle where municipalities have gone digital, and Kawartha Lakes is just one of these—as the email says—many municipalities that have adopted electronic voting. And I'm not sure if I'm ready to recommend it at the provincial or federal level. But as I say, it's something that I was very, very worried about when it first started getting rolled out, and it just doesn't seem to have materialized into as much of a problem as I was worried about.

Steve Paikin:很好。好的,看下一封。

英文原文

Steve Paikin: Good. Okay, next one.

米尔顿市长竞选:两代人的理性交锋

Steve Paikin:好的,这封是关于米尔顿(Milton)的。法布里安(Febrienne)来信写道:“我想分享一下安省米尔顿正在发生的一场有趣的市长角逐。米尔顿拥有安省、甚至可能是全加拿大任期最长的市长——89岁的高德·克兰茨(Gord Krantz),他自1980年起担任市长,先后14次连任市长。克兰茨市长,您第一次当选市长时我甚至还没出生[笑声]。现在有10个人在竞选市长。高德最近和扎伊娜卜·阿齐姆(Zainab Azim)一起出现在一段视频中,两人一边喝着奶昔,一边呼吁开展干净文明的竞选。今年会成为高德·克兰茨市长生涯终结的一年吗?法布里安·S·布德曼(Febrienne S. Budman)。”法布里安,我无法回答这个问题,因为我无法预测未来。但不得不提的是,我最近碰巧在伯灵顿(Burlington)的一场共同出席的活动上见到了扎伊娜卜·阿齐姆。她是一位20岁出头、佩戴头巾的年轻穆斯林女性。我必须告诉你,她非常敏锐、非常聪明。我并不是说一个20岁出头——可能21或22岁,但不会大太多——的年轻人就有能力终结米尔顿市长长达46年的执政生涯[笑声],这种事谁也说不准。但我认为她是一位极具活力的政治人才,如果她愿意,完全可以在政界大有作为。我们手头有他们那段在奶昔前举行“和平峰会”的视频吗?如果可以的话,我们一起来看一看。

英文原文

Steve Paikin: Right. So, this is about Milton. Febrienne writes, "I would like to highlight an interesting mayoral race happening in Milton, Ontario. Milton has the longest serving mayor in Ontario, maybe Canada. 89-year-old Gord Krantz, who has been mayor since 1980, elected 14 times as mayor. Mayor Krantz, you were elected for mayor the first time before I was born. [laughter] There are now 10 people who are running for mayor. Gord recently showed up with Zainab Azim in a video calling for clean campaigning while sipping on milkshakes. Is this going to be the year that Gord Krantz ends his mayoral reign? Febrienne S. Budman." Febrienne, I can't answer that question because I cannot predict the future. But suffice to say, I met Zainab Azim recently at an event that we both happen to be at. I think it was in Burlington. She is a 20-some young Muslim woman who wears a hijab. And I got to tell you something, she is very sharp. She's very smart. I'm not saying that a 20-year-old—more than 20, maybe 21 or 22, but not a lot more than 20—I'm not saying that she's capable of knocking off the 46-year long [laughter] reign of the mayor of Milton. You never know, but I thought she was a totally dynamic politician and somebody who, if she wants it, could have a big future in politics. And do we have the video of the milkshake—the peace summit over the milkshake? Let's take a look at that if we can.

Zainab Azim:我是扎伊娜卜·阿齐姆。

英文原文

Zainab Azim: I'm Zainab Azim.

Gord Krantz:我是高德·克兰茨。

英文原文

Gord Krantz: And I'm Gord Krantz.

Zainab Azim:我们都在竞选米尔顿市长。

英文原文

Zainab Azim: And we're both running for mayor of Milton.

Gord Krantz:我们是彼此的竞争对手。

英文原文

Gord Krantz: And we're running against one another.

Zainab Azim:虽然我喜欢草莓奶昔,

英文原文

Zainab Azim: And while I like strawberry milkshakes,

Gord Krantz:我却独爱巧克力奶昔。

英文原文

Gord Krantz: I love chocolate.

Zainab Azim:虽然我认为大家应该把票投给我,[音乐]

英文原文

Zainab Azim: And while I think you should vote for me, [music]

Gord Krantz:我也认为大家应该投我一票。

英文原文

Gord Krantz: and I think you should vote for me.

Zainab Azim:但作为米尔顿的市民,我们始终致力于携手合作。[音乐]

英文原文

Zainab Azim: As Miltonians, we always [music] work

Gord Krantz:共同进退。我们可以存在分歧,但绝不贬损彼此。

英文原文

Gord Krantz: together. We can disagree without degrading one another.

Zainab Azim:让我们向大家证明,政治还有更好的一种方式。我是扎伊娜卜·阿齐姆。

英文原文

Zainab Azim: And let's show people that there's a better way to do politics. I'm Zainab Azim.

Gord Krantz:我是高德·克兰茨,我们认可这条公益宣传。[笑声]

英文原文

Gord Krantz: and I'm Gord Krantz, and we approve this message. [laughter]

Steve Paikin:好的,从这里可以看出几点。第一,她非常幸运,这位在位46年的现任市长愿意与她一起出镜,给予她这种原本很难获得的极高曝光度。所以对她而言这十分幸运;而且坦白讲,克兰茨市长愿意为了传递一个更宏大的愿景而分享聚光灯,同样值得称赞。这个宏大的愿景就是:这样不好吗?你完全不必像密西沙加那样搞得剑拔弩张,选举期间完全可以多一点温情与团结(Kumbaya),这绝非坏事。

英文原文

Steve Paikin: Okay, a couple of things here. Number one, she's very lucky that the 46-year incumbent agreed to do a spot with her and give her this kind of prominence, which she otherwise probably wouldn't get. So, lucky for her, and frankly, kudos to him for being prepared to sort of share the spotlight a bit in the interest of creating a bigger message, which is, isn't this good? You don't have to do it like they do it in Mississauga. There can be a little Kumbaya at election time and it's not a bad thing.

John Michael McGrath:是的。这里面体现了几件事:其一,我们在播客中多次讨论过本省某些地区的地方市政政治正变得多么丑陋和恶劣;我们也谈到过,在某些情况下市长和议员们甚至真的开始为人身安全感到担忧,因为外界确实弥漫着一些极其有毒的敌意。因此,这段视频是一剂清凉解毒剂,是一种令人欣喜的美好替代方案。其二,这也是大多伦多地区(GTA)许多市镇人口结构变迁的一个极其具象化的缩影,米尔顿正是典型代表。高德·克兰茨完全可以说是40年前米尔顿中位选民的典型化身;而阿齐姆则代表了如今正在席卷整个大多伦多地区的人口结构演变。看到他们两人同框,共同强调建设性合作的必要性,这真的很美好。

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: Yeah. And so I mean a few things. One, you know we've discussed on the podcast before just how nasty municipal politics are getting in some parts of the province, and we've talked about before about mayors and counselors genuinely worried about their physical safety in some cases because there's really some toxic stuff going on out there. So this is tonic. This is a really delightful alternative to that. And also, I mean a very visual example of changing demographics in lots of GTA municipalities, but in this case Milton, where Gordon Krantz—probably I don't think it's unfair to say—represents the median Milton voter of 40 years ago, and Azim, part of the demographic changes that are happening all over the GTA. And lovely to have both of them in that one message talking about the need to work constructively together.

省府接管与教育委员选举困境

Steve Paikin:说得太对了。好的,我们来看下一封来信。

英文原文

Steve Paikin: Amen. Okay, we got more.

John Michael McGrath:是的,我们收到了戴维·哈里森(David Harrison)关于教育委员(school board trustees)的来信。广义上讲,好几位听众都提出了类似的疑问:“我的孩子早就从公立学校毕业了。但直到现在,我每次都会认真了解教育委员候选人的背景并参与投票,因为我认为自己仍然有责任去维护和促进一个优秀的公立教育体系。但今年我还用得着费这个劲吗?毕竟下个月选出来的教育委员,在可预见的未来里根本没有任何实质权力可言。”大卫问道。

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: Yes, we've got another one from David Harrison who writes to us about school board trustees. We've had a few people make, broadly speaking, this kind of a query. "My kids are long out of public school. Still, up till now, I've researched the trustee candidates and cast my ballot, thinking that I still have a responsibility to try and uphold and encourage an excellent public school system. But this year, should I bother given that the trustees that are elected next month won't have anything to do, at least for the foreseeable future?" David.

Steve Paikin:顺便提一句,戴维·哈里森经常给我们发邮件,我们对此非常感激。他是我们忠实热心的忠实观众和听众,也是我们的常客笔友之一。

英文原文

Steve Paikin: Now, David Harrison is a guy who emails, I think, quite a bit, which we appreciate. He is a loyal and faithful viewer and listener, one of our regular correspondents.

John Michael McGrath:确实如此。我们经常能收到他的来信,这太棒了;每当我们犯错时,他总能及时督促我们保持严谨。他在这里提出了一个非常深刻的问题,因为这直接揭示了一个事实:在安大略省境内,有数个教育局已经被省政府实质上实行了“接管(receivership)”——如果可以这么表述的话。他们实质上被剥夺了权力,所有实权都被省政府直接派驻进来的省督学(provincial trustee)接管。我可以举一个例子:吉尔·普罗莫利(Jill Promoli),我想她也算是我们节目的老朋友了。她是皮尔区(Peel)公立教育局任职多年的教育委员,这次也正在竞选连任,而在她与我的私下交谈中……

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: Absolutely. And we hear from him all the time, which is great. He keeps us on our toes when we make mistakes. And he's got a really interesting question here because this points to the fact that there are several school boards around the province of Ontario that the provincial government has sort of put into receivership, if I can put it that way. They have been in effect defenestrated and their powers assumed by a provincial trustee who has been put in there. And well, I can give you an example. Jill Promoli is, I guess, friend of the show. Somebody who has been a Peel school board trustee for a long time. She is running for reelection and she has sort of in conversation with me—

被接管的教育局与校董选举的尴尬处境

Speaker A:……被允许。有时候我甚至都搞不清楚自己现在到底在竞选什么。你看,我现在竞选的这份职位眼下其实根本就不存在,因为皮尔区教育局(Peel District School Board)目前正处于省政府的接管托管状态。退一步说,就算我赢了,我又有什么职权、什么权力,或者什么资源来开展工作呢?基本上毫无所用。所以眼下的情况确实让人感到十分困惑。

英文原文

Speaker A: allowed. Some days I'm not sure what I'm running for right now. You know, I'm running for a job that doesn't really exist right now because the Peel board's in trusteeship right now. And even if I win, what authority, what powers, what, you know, resources do I have to do a job? Not really any. So, it's a bit confusing right now to be sure.

Speaker B:确实。而且在多伦多,我们知道上一届的校董班子中,当然有些人正在寻求连任。但你知道,今年早些时候发生过一件事,他们基本上被告知甚至连选民公开会议都不能开。鉴于这些教育局目前都处于省政府的监管之下,大家非常真实地在质疑这些校董到底能扮演什么角色——即使省政府未来决定取消省直监管、恢复它们作为正常运转的教育局也是如此。当然,省政府最近还修改了相关法规,以限制学校董事会校董的开支权以及其他某些职权。因此,撇开接管监管的问题不谈,他们的职能本身也已经发生了非常重大的改变。

英文原文

Speaker B: Yeah. And in Toronto, we know that the outgoing cohort of trustees who of course some of them are running for reelection. But you know, there was an incident earlier this year where they were basically told that they couldn't even hold public meetings. You know there's a very real question about you know what their role will be given that these boards are under supervision and even if the province decides to restore them to actual functioning school boards without the provincial supervision. Of course the government also changed legislation recently in order to restrict the spending and some of the other authorities of school board trustees. So quite aside from the supervision issue, there have been some very substantial changes in their roles.

Speaker A:嗯。所以大卫(David),对于你的问题,直接的答案就是:是的,你仍然应该投票选举校董。因为存在这样一种可能——即使你的教育局目前正处于托管、接管、清算破产,或者不管你现在怎么称呼它,只要省政府改变了主意,校董们重新恢复职权,你选出的中意人选就已经在那里履职了。这就是我的回答。我认为在民主制度中,征询我们意见的机会本来就很少(笑声),所以每当我们获得投票的机会时,我认为是的,你仍然应该去了解候选人并投出你的选票。而且,目前对这些教育局的监管我认为不可能再持续四年,原因很简单:到了一定阶段,民众就会把问题串联起来,开始把孩子学校里发生的所有糟糕问题都归咎于省政府。

英文原文

Speaker A: Mhm. So I guess the direct answer, David, to your question is yes, you should still vote for a trustee on the possibility that if your trustee is in trusteeship or receivership or bankruptcy or whatever you want to call it right now, if the province changes its mind about that and the trustees then resume their positions of authority, you've got the person in there that you want. That's how I would answer that. Yeah, I think we are asked for our opinions so rarely [laughter] in democracies that when we are given the chance to cast a ballot, I would say yes you should still you know research your candidates, cast your ballots. And you know the current supervision of these school boards I don't think is going to last for another four years for no other reason than at a certain point people connect the dots, and they start blaming the province for everything that's going wrong in their kids' schools.

Speaker B:可不是嘛。

英文原文

Speaker B: There you go.

Speaker A:而且我认为教育厅长也不希望这种监管局面拖延太久。所以,是的,虽然眼下的情况确实有点怪异,但我还是建议:把票投给那个你希望在监管结束之后来替你做决策的人。

英文原文

Speaker A: And I don't think that the Minister of Education wants that to persist very long. So yes, admittedly things are a bit weird right now, but I would say, you know, vote for the person who you want to be making these decisions when the supervision ends,

知名保守派专栏作家参选多伦多校董

Speaker B:对吧?你有没有注意到——我的意思是,本周竞选标语牌才刚刚获准立起来。而在我们所在的这个选区,也就是多伦多圣保罗选区(Toronto-St. Paul's),也就是我们这家电视台所在的区域,你有没有注意到这个片区有某位特别的教育局校董候选人的标语牌?

英文原文

Speaker B: right? Have you, I mean, it was just this week that the signs are allowed to go up now. And in this neighborhood, we're in Toronto St. Paul's riding. Yes. This TV station. Have you noticed signs for a particular candidate running for school board in this area?

Speaker A:我得承认,我最近其实没有在周边的社区街道上走动过。

英文原文

Speaker A: I admit I have not actually been walking like the neighborhood streets.

Speaker B:好吧,我在社区里走过。我没有自行车,所以全靠步行。塔莎·凯里丹(Tasha Kheiriddin)正在竞选该区域的教育局校董。大家可能会觉得她的名字很耳熟,她曾长期担任记者,也曾是《国家邮报》媒体集团(Postmedia)的专栏作家。我猜她大概是对公立学校系统积累了足够多的不满,于是决定亲自下场参选。没错,塔莎参选了,她的名字出现在了选票上。

英文原文

Speaker B: Okay. I have I walk the streets. I don't have a bicycle, so I walk the streets. Tasha Kheiriddin is running for school board in this area. Now, people may recognize her name. She's a longtime journalist and columnist for Postmedia once upon a time. And I guess she just decided she's got enough complaints with the public school system that she's decided to throw her name in there. And okay, there's Tasha. Her name's on the ballot.

Speaker A:是的。之前有人问过我,既然你是个保守派,而且现在省议会女王公园(Queen's Park)执政的又是保守党政府,你为什么要选校董,而不是去保罗·卡兰德拉(Paul Calandra)的厅长办公室谋一份职位呢?但我认为这首先是完全不同的两份工作。而且我认为这在某种程度上反映出一种情绪——虽然我坦承并没有就参选原因与塔莎·凯里丹本人聊过——但在保守派群体内部,目前存在一种更为广泛的真实感受,从保守派的角度来说,他们认为安大略省的学校出了大问题。撇开女王公园省府正在发生的事不谈,有保守派人士出来竞选这些职位,正是因为他们由衷地认为教育局需要进行一次方向修正。所以我确信凯里丹女士绝不是这些竞选中唯一的保守派候选人。确实有很多人由衷地反对他们所看到的现状,不仅仅是对多伦多教育局的发展方向不满,更是对整个大多伦多地区(GTA)多个教育局的走向感到不满。

英文原文

Speaker A: Yeah. I had somebody ask me, you know, why would you do this instead of, you know, if you're a conservative and it's a conservative government in Queen's Park right now, you know, why would you be a trustee instead of I don't know, trying to get a job in Paul Calandra's office. And but I do think that there is I mean they are two different jobs first of all and it is one expression I think admittedly I haven't spoken to Tasha Kheiriddin about her reasons for running but one thing that I think is going on more broadly among conservatives is a real sense of things let's from the conservative perspective again saying things have gone wrong in Ontario schools. And quite aside from whatever is happening at Queen's Park, there are conservatives running for these jobs because they really think that, you know, school boards need a course correction. And so certainly I know that Miss Kheiriddin is not the only conservative running in these races. And you know there are people who just genuinely disagree with what they see as the direction of not just the Toronto school board but you know several school boards around the GTA.

Speaker B:好的。我们要接着讨论丹·麦克莱恩(Dan MacLean)提出的观点吗?

英文原文

Speaker B: Right. Do we want to do Dan MacLean's point here?

Speaker A:好的。这与另一个问题相关。丹·麦克莱恩是多伦多即将卸任的校董,他来信询问:在那些处于接管监管状态下的教育局中,实际当选的校董接下来会面临什么?他们到底能不能履行任何职责?我只能回到我们前面提到过的情况:目前,这些校董实际上没有任何法定职责。他们甚至不被允许与选民举行公开会议。我推测,正如你刚才所说,这种省政府监管终究会结束,而一旦结束,他们就会被允许恢复作为学校董事会校董的全部常规职责。不过我想另一种可能性是,省政府可能会在监管结束之前出台新的立法变更。但这显然纯属我个人的推测了。

英文原文

Speaker A: Uh right. So this related to the other question Dan MacLean who is an outgoing trustee in Toronto he writes in wondering what happens to the trustees who actually are elected in the boards under supervision. Will they actually be able to assume any duties? And you know, I'll just refer to what we mentioned earlier that, you know, at the moment, these trustees really don't have any duties. They are not even allowed to sort of hold public meetings with their constituents. I assume, as you said earlier, that the supervision will end and that when it does, they will be allowed to resume all of the normal duties of a school board trustee. But I guess the other possibility is that the government could introduce new changes with new legislation before that supervision ends. But that's obviously very speculative on my part.

绿带丑闻与史蒂夫·克拉克的谴责辩论悬案

Speaker B:好的。谈完这个,让我们进入议题三。早在2023年8月,安大略省廉政专员(Integrity Commissioner)裁定,代表安省进步保守党、选区为利兹-格伦维尔-千岛群岛和里多湖区(Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes)的省议员史蒂夫·克拉克(Steve Clark),在涉及安省绿带保护区土地开发的事件中违反了利益冲突及内幕信息保密规定,违反了《议员廉洁法》(Members' Integrity Act)。廉政专员建议就这些行为对克拉克进行正式申诫(reprimand)。提一个简单的问题:他被正式申诫了吗?

英文原文

Speaker B: Right. And with that, let's get off to issue three. Back in August 2023, Ontario's integrity commissioner found that MPP Steve Clark, who represents Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes for the PCs, had violated the Members' Integrity Act when he breached conflict of interest and insider information rules related to the development of protected land in the greenbelt. The commissioner recommended that he be reprimanded for these actions. Simple question, has he been?

Speaker A:没有,他根本没有受到谴责。廉政专员的调查报告是在2023年发布的,按照法律规定,省议会本应在30天内就该报告展开辩论,并可以选择是否对议员施加专员所建议的惩处。而在此案中,并不是议会经过投票决定不对他施加惩罚,而是议会从头到尾根本就没组织过这场辩论。

英文原文

Speaker A: Uh, no, he has not been reprimanded. The integrity commissioner's report came out in 2023 and under the law the house the legislative assembly is supposed to debate that report within 30 days and can choose to impose the penalty recommended by the commissioner or not. And in this case it's not that they chose not to impose the punishment. They just never held the debate at all.

Speaker B:为什么没开辩论?

英文原文

Speaker B: And why not?

Speaker A:因为政府完全掌控着立法院的议程和排期,由执政党决定哪些事项在何时予以辩论,而他们直接选择压根不把这场辩论排入议程。在廉政专员的报告出炉之后,克拉克辞去了厅长职务,当时的政府议会领袖(现任教育厅长)保罗·卡兰德拉当时表示,克拉克辞去厅长职位实际上已经算受到足够惩罚了。

英文原文

Speaker A: Well because the government controls the timing and the schedule of the legislature and it decides what matters will be debated and when and they opted never to schedule that debate. Clark resigned as a minister after the integrity commissioner report was released and the then government house leader now education minister Paul Calandra said that Clark's resignation was punishment enough functionally.

Speaker B:难道议会依法没有举行辩论的义务吗?(笑声)正常人都会以为,法律条文白纸黑字写得清清楚楚,就必须去照章执行。

英文原文

Speaker B: Are they not obliged to hold this debate? [laughter] You would think that the clear letter of the law would say, you know, you have to do the thing.

Speaker A:事实证明并非如此。我想我可以把它类比为定期选举法——该法律同样在2025年被省政府抛在脑后了。你看,我们可以在法律条文中明确列出政府的各项法律义务,但如何强制执行这些规则完全是另外一码事。而且(哧笑声),在不扯得太细的前提下,如果省议员们集体选择不在省议会里辩论某件事——我们必须讲明白,因为进步保守党占据了议会多数,当他们决定做或不做某件事时,那在实质上就代表着省议会本身的意志,对吧?所以根本没有任何力量能强迫他们去做一件他们不想做的事。

不过,当初道格·福特(Doug Ford)无视固定选举日法案、在执政刚满比如两年就提前宣布省选时,他至少还说了句:“哦,顺便说一句,这个固定选举日法律,我们也会顺手把它废除掉。”但在克拉克被谴责这件事情上,省府从来没有说过这种话。所以按理来说,这场辩论确实是必须举行的。

英文原文

Speaker A: It turns out not so much. I guess I would draw the analogy to the fixed-term election law that the government also ignored in 2025. You know, we can spell out certain obligations for the government in law, but enforcing those rules is another matter entirely. And [snorts] without going too deep into the weeds here, you know, if MPPs choose not to debate a matter in the House, and I guess we have to be clear here that because the Progressive Conservatives are the majority when they make a decision to do or not do something that's basically the legislature speaking, right? There's really nothing to force them to do something they don't want to do. But when Doug Ford ignored the fixed election date law and called the election after whatever it was two years, he at least said, "Oh, and incidentally, this fixed election date law, we're getting rid of this as well." But he hasn't said that about this. So this debate really is supposed to happen.

Speaker B:确实。那么……

英文原文

Speaker B: Yes. So

Speaker B:它实际上真正发生的机会有多大呢?(笑声)

英文原文

Speaker B: what are the chances of it actually happening? [laughter]

Speaker A:这就涉及本周的新闻了:本周早些时候,安省自由党省议员阿德尔·沙姆吉医生(Dr. Adil Shamji)公开呼吁在此事上对克拉克进行问责。非常奇特的是,这相当于是在呼吁克拉克自己对自己问责,因为目前负责安排辩论日程的现任政府议会领袖正是史蒂夫·克拉克本人。沙姆吉基本上是在要求他亲自排期……

英文原文

Speaker A: Well, so that brings us to this week's news, which is that, earlier this week, Ontario Liberal MPP, Dr. Adil Shamji. He did put out a call to hold Clark accountable here. Hold Clark accountable to Clark, oddly enough, because the current government house leader who is responsible for scheduling this debate would be Steve Clark. And Shamji is basically asking him to schedule

关于谴责案辩论的程序与考量

John Michael McGrath:……围绕对他本人的谴责案进行辩论。嗯,我不觉得谢尔基在这里能如愿以偿。不过他确实表示,在试图推动促成这场辩论方面,他还在考虑其他措施。但他首先还是要求克拉克在此允许展开辩论。

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: ...the debate on his own reprimand. I don't love Shangji's chances of getting what he wants here. But he does say that there are other measures that he is looking at in terms of trying to force this debate. But he is starting by asking Clark to allow the debate here.

Steve Paikin:在这里,“谴责”(reprimand)是一个含义相当宽泛的词。在这种情况下,“谴责”究竟意味着什么?

英文原文

Steve Paikin: Now a reprimand is a fairly broad word. What does reprimand in this case mean?

John Michael McGrath:从字面上讲,它指的就是谴责,即如果省议员——或者说省议会的多数议员——确实投票支持施加该惩处,所表达出的一种不满。

嗯,(笑声)回到我们刚才讨论的话题,比如他们难道不应该守法吗?我确实认为政府至少应该走个过场举行这场辩论,因为我认为我们理应期望省议员们遵守自己通过的法律。

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: It literally just means the reprimand, the expression of displeasure by MPPs, by a majority of the legislature if they in fact voted to impose that penalty.

Um, [laughter] getting back to what we were just saying about like shouldn't they follow the law? Like I do kind of think that the government should kind of hold the perfunctory debate just because I think we should expect MPPs to follow the laws that they pass.

Steve Paikin:这是表明我们是一个遵纪守法社会的良好信号。

英文原文

Steve Paikin: That's a good signal that we're a law-abiding society.

John Michael McGrath:对吧?但按照法律目前的行文表述,省议员们受限的选择只有要么对克拉克施加这种谴责,要么不施加。在理论上,法律确实允许廉政专员建议更为严厉的惩罚,甚至包括宣布其议席出缺——也就是将他逐出省议会并举行补选。但目前真正摆在桌面上讨论的完全没有这些后果。克拉克在此完全没有面临任何断送职业生涯的危险。

所以再次重申,大家都心知肚明接下来的走向。举行辩论吧,保守党议员们大可以全部投票“赦免”史蒂夫·克拉克,姑且这么说。那将代表省议会的多数意见。这样一来既履行了法律规定的全部义务,大家也可以继续过各自的日子了。

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: Right? But the way the law is written, MPPs are restricted to either impose this reprimand on Clark or not. In theory, the law does allow the integrity commissioner to recommend more severe penalties up to and including declaring his seat vacant, i.e. expelling him from the legislature and holding a new election. But none of those consequences are really up for debate at the moment. There's no danger here of Clark suffering career-ending consequences really.

So again, you know, just like we know what's going to happen here. Hold the debate. The Tories can all vote to, you know, acquit Steve Clark, so to speak. That would be the majority of the legislature. You would have fulfilled all of the obligations of the law, and you could all move on with your lives.

Steve Paikin:这看起来相当明确了。

英文原文

Steve Paikin: Seems pretty clear.

John Michael McGrath:是的。

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: Yes.

多伦多市长竞选与保守派候选人的波折

Steve Paikin:既然说到“继续过日子”,我们也要继续推进节目了。接下来我们要聊聊各自写的专栏文章。

现在到了我们的常规栏目“你的专栏,我的专栏”(Your Column, My Column)。在这一节里,JMM和我将就过去一周我们在TVO网站上发表的专栏进行简短的交流。我们在这里聊聊这些文章,也鼓励大家前往tvo.org阅读了解更多内容。你这周想跟我们聊聊什么?

英文原文

Steve Paikin: Well, speaking of moving on, we're going to move on with our lives. We're going to talk about our columns right after this.

Time now for our regular feature. It's called Your Column, My Column, in which JMM and I have a little chitchat here about the columns that we wrote for the TVO website over this past week. We chat about them here. We encourage you to go to tvo.org and learn more about them there. What do you want to tell us about this week?

John Michael McGrath:今年多伦多市长竞选中最诡异的一个现象,就是该市部分保守派人士非常高调地寻找一位不叫布拉德福德(Bradford)的保守派候选人,(笑声)来同时挑战布拉德·布拉德福德(Brad Bradford)和邹至蕙(Olivia Chow)。

他们最终找到了克里斯·亚历山大(Chris Alexander)这位候选人,但他却在本周早些时候——也就是提前投票的第一天——退出了竞选。看着这一切的发展,过程实在是极其离奇古怪,(笑声)因为从很早开始大家就看得相当清楚,在这个城市反对邹至蕙的保守派力量基本上都已经被布拉德福德整合起来了。虽然最近几周这种整合力度可能不如之前那么明显,但克里斯·亚历山大在参选时就从未获得过排山倒海的民意支持,而他在某些民调中只剩下几个百分点的支持率时便黯然退选了。

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: So, one of the stranger aspects of the mayoral campaign in Toronto this year has been the very public search by some conservatives in this city to find a conservative candidate who is not named Bradford [laughter] to challenge Bradford and Olivia Chow.

And they eventually found a candidate, Chris Alexander, who dropped out of the race earlier this week on the first day of early voting. And it's just been such a weird sort of ride [laughter] to watch this all unfold because it was pretty clear from early on that Bradford more or less had consolidated the conservative opposition to Olivia Chow in this city. Maybe not quite as much as he has in the most recent weeks. But you know, Chris Alexander never entered the race with a spectacular groundswell of support and he left with only a few percent in some polls.

Steve Paikin:而且他一开始参选的时间就非常晚。

英文原文

Steve Paikin: And he got in very late to begin with.

John Michael McGrath:他一开始参选就非常晚。我觉得整件事都让人感到不可思议。

至于这背后的原因,不可否认这确实属于典型的内部政治圈内八卦(inside baseball),大家都在议论到底哪些保守派在支持哪位候选人。而这到底是因为理念上的真正分歧,还是因为有人觉得布拉德福德在性格上——我想(笑声)“不讨人喜欢”(unlikable)是经常被用到的词之一。《多伦多星报》(Toronto Star)曾发表过一篇关于布拉德·布拉德福德的长篇人物专访,里面反复提到这个问题:有些人就是单纯不喜欢他。

同样,这完全是圈内话题,我也承认这一点。我并不是在呼吁大家投票支持或反对布拉德·布拉德福德。真正让我担忧的是,这简直就像是一种政治渎职。那些政治操盘手、政治顾问们的行事作风,完全与这个城市正在发生的客观现实脱节了。

未来的某一天,保守派迟早会再次赢得市长职位。毕竟在多伦多大合并之后的历史中,保守派赢得了绝大多数的选举。我希望当下一任保守派市长组建自己的市长办公室团队时,他们能找到真正懂得认清现实、而不是活在妄想中的幕僚和操盘手。

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: And he got in very late to begin with. And I find this all very strange.

And the reason, you know, this is all sort of it is admittedly inside baseball here and there's discussions about which conservatives were backing which candidate. And is this because of genuine disagreements or is this because some people find Bradford to be unlikable, is [laughter] one of the words that gets used. The Toronto Star had a lengthy profile about Brad Bradford and this issue kept coming up that some people just do not like him.

Again, it's all inside baseball and I concede that. And I'm not urging people to vote for or against Brad Bradford. What concerns me is that it's kind of like political malpractice. It's political operatives, political advisers really just acting totally sort of disconnected from the observable reality of what was happening in this city.

And someday a conservative will win the mayor's office again. Conservatives have won most of the elections in the post-amalgamation city's history. And I would like to think that when that next conservative mayor is staffing up their mayor's office that they will find staffers and operatives and people who actually know how to like recognize reality and not be deluded.

Steve Paikin:说得很对。你知道吗,我也一直在反复思考克里斯·亚历山大当初设想的胜选路径究竟是怎样的。

我猜想,尽管他参选极晚,而且显然没有太多竞选资金和资源来运作他的选战,但他当时的盘算大概是:既然外界对布拉德·布拉德福德扳倒邹至蕙的尝试感到不满,那么当我加入选战并提供不同于布拉德福德的另一种保守派声音时,所有人都会显而易见地看出我是一位比布拉德福德更优秀的候选人;这样一来,布拉德福德的所有支持者都会流向我,最终布拉德福德不得不退出竞选,整场选举将演变成邹至蕙与亚历山大之间的对决。

我认为这大概就是他的如意算盘。但那实在是一个百万分之一几率的孤注一掷。正如我们在把这场选战推演其他999,999次时所看到的那样:亚历山大以个位数的支持率入局,某个阶段可能冲到过10%,随后在最新民调出炉时跌至4%,最终退选。正如我所说,在一百次当中有九十九次,事情都会是这样的结局。

我还想补充一点——这也是我经常挂在嘴边的一个老生常谈,我不会就此展开太多,但多伦多在市长竞选中确实存在一个问题:那些在市政领域缺乏深厚履历的人,总是认为自己可以半路杀进来并一举成名。(清嗓子)

基本上从我开始关注多伦多政治以来的每一个选举周期,这种情况都会上演,而且从来没有好结果。往往能够获胜的人——除了一次例外——往往是那些已经在市政机构担任公职的人……

英文原文

Steve Paikin: It's a good point. And you know what? I've been thinking a lot about what exactly Chris Alexander's path to victory looked like.

And I guess it despite coming in very late and despite not apparently having very much money and very many resources to run his campaign, I guess his play was: there's unhappiness with Brad Bradford's attempt to take down Olivia Chow, and therefore I'm going to offer a different conservative voice from Bradford's when I get into the race; it's going to be so obvious that I'm a superior candidate to Bradford and all of his support will bleed off to me, and ultimately you'll have Bradford dropping out of the race and it will be a Chow-Alexander choice. I think that was the play.

But that's really a one-in-a-million shot, and as we saw the other 999,999 times that we would run this race, Alexander gets in with single-digit support, maybe got up to 10% at one point, and then dropped down to 4% when the most recent poll came out, and dropped out. And as I say, 99 times out of 100, that's what was going to happen.

And I will add just this is one of my hobby horses, and I'm not going to go on too long about this, but Toronto has a problem particularly with mayor's races where people who do not have an extensive record in municipal politics think that they can jump in and make a [clears throat] name for themselves.

This has happened basically in every cycle since I have started watching Toronto politics and it never goes well. The people who tend to win, with one exception, the people who tend to win are people who already hold municipal office...

John Michael McGrath:而且在民众当中知名度极高。

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: And are extremely well-known by the people.

Steve Paikin:对吧?所以唯一一个此前未曾拥有市议员席位却能胜选的例外,就是约翰·托里(John Tory)。当然,约翰·托里在多伦多政坛早已是一个人尽皆知的人物。

所以,正如我所说的,整件事情一直让我感到非常费解。

你读过马特·埃利奥特(Matt Elliott)在《多伦多星报》上关于这件事的专栏吗?马特的专栏批评得极其尖锐。首先得声明,通常来说,你和我对于那些有勇气把自己的名字印在选票上的人都是心怀敬意的。我们自己可不会去参选,但你知道,我们需要有人挺身而出。

英文原文

Steve Paikin: Right? And so the one exception of a person who did not already hold a council seat is John Tory. And John Tory, of course, an extremely well-known quantity in Toronto politics.

So yeah, as I say, this whole thing's been very confusing to me.

Did you read Matt Elliot's column in the Toronto Star about all this? Matt's column was excoriating. Now, let's start by saying you and I generally speaking have respect for people who have the guts to put their names on a ballot. We're not going to do it, but you know, we need people to do it.

John Michael McGrath:我顺便在括号里插一句,我认为克里斯·亚历山大确实为这次竞选做出了一些有益的贡献。

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: And and I will just very parenthetically add, you know, I think Chris Alexander made some useful contributions to this campaign.

Steve Paikin:我同意,我也同意。

马特·埃利奥特的专栏批评得极为严厉,他说作为北美人口第四大城市(多伦多按人口规模目前确实排第四),本次市长职位所提供的候选人选项在他看来简直令人失望透顶、不堪入目。对此我就不作评论了,我只是把这个观点摆出来供大家参考。

但如果你想去《星报》网站阅读那篇专栏,你可能会赞同马特的观点。他确实阐述得极为有力,而且言辞非常——我想找什么词来形容呢?可以说带有很强的“砂纸般的粗粝摩擦感”,(笑声)就这么形容吧。是的,大家不妨去读读。

英文原文

Steve Paikin: I agree. I agree.

Um, Matt Elliot's column was absolutely excoriating, saying for the fourth biggest city in North America, which Toronto is right now by population, the options on offer for the mayor's job he found to be pathetic. I won't comment on that. I'll merely put that out there for people's edification.

But if you want to go on the Star website and read that column because you may agree with Matt's point, he certainly made the case extremely effectively and very, what's the word I'm looking for? With a lot of sandpaper, let's [laughter] put it that way. Yeah, let's do that.

第19选区市议员焦点对决

John Michael McGrath:好的。那么史蒂夫,你本周的专栏写了什么?

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: All right. Now, what about you, Steve?

Steve Paikin:我本周的专栏同样聚焦在多伦多市政厅,因为我认为这里正在上演一场绝佳的竞选——不是争夺市长,而是该市央街(Yonge Street)以东的一个市议员席位。

英文原文

Steve Paikin: Well, I'm sticking with Toronto City Hall on my column this week because I think there's one of the best races, not for mayor, but for city council that's happening east of Yonge Street in this city.

John Michael McGrath:这正是发生在我的选区。

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: It's happening in my ward.

Steve Paikin:确实是在你的选区,没错。

正如大家所知,我们喜欢在节目中重点介绍本省发生的一些精彩选战,我们在节目稍早前就已经做过了。距离我们演播室大约20分钟路程的地方,就是第19选区“湖滩-东约克”(Beaches-East York)。而最终的胜选者必定是一位名叫内撒尼尔(Nathaniel)或娜塔莉(Natalie)的人。

英文原文

Steve Paikin: It is happening in your ward. That's right.

You know, we do like to highlight some of the great races that are going on in this province. We did so earlier in this program. About 20 minutes from this studio is Ward 19, Beaches-East York. And the winner is going to be somebody named Nathaniel or Natalie.

John Michael McGrath:是的。

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: Yes.

Steve Paikin:或者更亲切随和点,叫内特(Nate)或娜特(Nat)。这是两位非常高知名度的候选人。

让我们先调出娜塔莉·约翰逊(Natalie Johnson)的照片,我猜你应该认得她。这是我前几天刚为她拍的照片。我们在那家叫什么的店里喝了杯茶——百灵鸟咖啡馆(Buds Coffee Shop),是那家吗……

英文原文

Steve Paikin: Nate or Nat, if you want to be more colloquial about the thing. Two very high-profile candidates.

Let's bring up the picture first of Natalie Johnson, whom you will, I suspect, recognize. This is a shot I took of her just the other day. We had a cup of tea on the, what was it? Buds Coffee Shop. Was that...

海滩-东约克选区补选:纳塔莉·约翰逊与内特·厄斯金-史密斯的角逐

史蒂夫·佩金:……那家店叫什么名字来着?我现在正努力回想。天哪,我的记忆力怎么越来越差了?它位于……

英文原文

Steve Paikin: ...the name of the place? I'm trying to remember now. Oh gosh, where's my memory going? It's on...

约翰·迈克尔·麦克格拉思:我对我家附近的绝大多数咖啡馆都很熟悉。

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: I know most of the coffee shops around my neighbor.

史蒂夫·佩金:你来帮我想想看。这是在皇后街和伍德拜恩大道交界处(Queen and Woodbine),就在皇后街北侧、靠近伍德拜恩的地方。我们当时坐在那里的长椅上,聊了半个多小时关于她参选的事。大家如果认得纳塔莉(Natalie Johnson),当然是因为她在电视荧幕上活跃了19年——在大部分时间里,她都担任CTV常驻多伦多市议会的记者。

大约五个月前,她毅然决定投身这场补选,因为她觉得自己的职业生涯到了这样一个阶段:她不想只是去曝光、呼吁大家关注城市中存在的各种问题,而是想真正尝试亲手解决这些问题。作为一名新闻记者,她把公众目光引向这些问题;而现在,她希望把自己的名字印在选票上,亲自去推动改变。她一直住在那个区域,也非常热爱那里等等。

鉴于这是布拉德·布拉德福德(Brad Bradford)此前留下的空缺议席,那里并没有现任在职议员(incumbent),对吧?这是一场彻底开放竞争的角逐,而她当时是知名度最高的人,挨家挨户敲了数万扇大门,心里想着“我一定能赢下这场选举”。然而,政治最显著的特点就是充满了不可预测性。

大家还记得内特·厄斯金-史密斯(Nate Erskine-Smith)吗?内特曾经是海滩-东约克选区(Beaches-East York)的联邦国会议员。后来他辞去了该职务,转而去角逐士嘉堡西南选区(Scarborough Southwest)的安大略省自由党党内提名,因为他希望转战省级政坛,期盼能在补选中赢得席位并最终出任安省自由党党魁。但这并未如愿,因为他在那场潜在的自由党党内提名竞选中失利了。

这件事情一发生,身边的人便开始对他说:“看啊,内特,你才四十一岁左右。你的政治生涯绝不应该就此画上句号。就在你居住的选区,市政厅正好出现了一个议席空缺。去那里参选吧,去竞选多伦多市议员的席位。”随后,市长邹至庄(Olivia Chow)也参与进来表态:“你知道吗?如果你能出来参选、进入市议会,那将是一件非常好的事。”她在内特身上看到了一位志同道合、有可能进入市议会共事的盟友。

内特最终同意了。于是,他不得不给纳塔莉·约翰逊打去一通我认为极其艰难且尴尬的电话,说道:“还记得几个月前我们一起喝咖啡的时候吗?当时我还挺鼓励你参选的,还跟你探讨了需要注意和顾虑的种种事项。但是,现在我也要加入这场竞选了。”

要知道,尽管围绕内特存在着一些争议——确实存在不少争议——但他拥有极高的公众知名度。他的加入,自然彻底改变了整个竞选格局。你们休想让我预测谁会在10月26日胜出,但我可以说到这个程度(笑):最终的胜选者,其名字的开头字母一定会是“N”。我能预测的也就仅限于此了。

英文原文

Steve Paikin: You help me with this. This is a Queen and Woodbine on the north side of Queen just uh just near Woodbine and we sat down on the bench there and had a chitchat for half an hour about her race. Now, if you recognize Natalie, it's of course because she's on television for 19 years as a CTV city hall reporter for most of those 19 years. Uh and 5 months ago she jumped into the race because she decided, you know, she got to a point in her career where she thought, "I don't just want to bring attention to the problems I see in the city. I would actually like to try to solve them." You know, she brought attention to them as a journalist, and now she wanted to put her name on a ballot and try to solve them. She's lived in the area, loves the area, and so on and so forth.

Given that this was Brad Bradford's former seat, there's no incumbent there, right? It was a wide open race and she was the best known person, has knocked on tens of thousands of doors and thought, "I'm going to win this thing." Politics is nothing if not unpredictable.

Remember Nate Erskine-Smith? Okay. Nate used to be the member of parliament federally for Beaches-East York. Then he left that job in order to run for the Scarborough Southwest Liberal nomination because he wanted to come to the provincial level in hopes of winning a seat in a by-election and then eventually becoming leader of the Ontario Liberals. That did not work out because he lost that potential uh Liberal nomination.

As soon as that happened, people started to say to him, "Look, Nate, you're whatever 41 years old. Your political career should not be over. There's an open vacancy at city hall in the riding in which you live. Run there, run for a city hall seat." Then Olivia Chow got into the mix and said, "You know what? It'd be good to have you running and good to have you on council." She sees a like-minded person potentially going there.

He eventually agrees and he has to make what I can only presume was an extremely kind of difficult, awkward call to Natalie Johnson saying, "Remember when you and I met for coffee several months ago and I sort of encouraged you to get in and told you here are some of the things you got to think about and worry about? Well, I'm getting into the race now, too." And you know, Nate, for all of the issues around him, and there are issues around him, has excellent name recognition. And his entry into the race has now of course completely changed the dynamic. You're not going to get a prediction out of me on who's going to win on the 26th of October, but it will be somebody I—I will go this far: [laughter] It will be somebody who starts spelling their first name "N". And that's as far as I'm going.

约翰·迈克尔·麦克格拉思:后面还会跟着一个元音字母。(笑)

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: Be followed by a vowel. [laughter]

史蒂夫·佩金:但我能透露的就只有这些了。确实如此,确实如此。关于海滩-东约克的选情曾出现过一次民调,但我对这种市级选区(ward-level)的民调——甚至是省级和联邦层面的单一选区民调——都持极大的怀疑态度,所以我甚至都不打算在播客里重复那些数字。不过,我会密切关注这场竞选。而且我也会在那场竞选中投票(笑)。是的,整个夏天这里确实上演了一出颇有戏剧性的戏码。

英文原文

Steve Paikin: But that's as far as I'm going. Yes, indeed. Yes, indeed. Um there has been one poll of uh the Beaches-East York race uh but I am so uh skeptical of uh polls like ward level polls and or even riding level polls you know provincially and federally uh that I'm not even going to repeat the uh the numbers here on the podcast. Um but I will be uh I will be watching this race. I will be voting [laughter] in that race. Um and uh yeah, no, it has been a little bit of a drama over the summer.

约翰·迈克尔·麦克格拉思:纳塔莉·约翰逊在选举日前一周就满40岁了。你可以想象她今年想要一份怎样的40岁生日礼物。至于内特·厄斯金-史密斯,不少朋友曾对他说:“你在政坛里赚不到什么钱,何必这样碰得头破血流呢?”他有很多朋友在贝街(Bay Street)金融界工作,赚的钱远比他多得多。但不管出于何种原因,他骨子里似乎就有一种天生的政治倾向,渴望在政界为这个世界做出贡献。所以他打算再试一次。正如人们常说的那样,愿更好的选择胜出吧。

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: Natalie Johnson turns 40 the week before election day. You can imagine what she wants for a 40th birthday present this year. Nate Erskine-Smith uh has been told by lots of his friends, "What are you banging your head against the wall making no money uh, you know, in politics for?" He's got lots of buddies who are on Bay Street making a lot more money than he is. But for whatever reason, he has a kind of a genetic predisposition to try to make a contribution to this world in politics and so he's giving it another go and uh you know as they say, may the better option win.

多伦多市长辩论预告与播客结语

史蒂夫·佩金:我们拭目以待。另外,我们还应该提醒各位观众,由我在TVO主持的每月市民大会节目《TVO Today Live》,将与多伦多大学罗特曼管理学院(Rotman School of Management)联合举办一场多伦多市长候选人辩论会。

辩论将于下周四,也就是10月15日举行。节目将于东部时间晚上7点在TVO进行现场直播,并在我们所有的数字平台上同步流媒体直播。当然,这场选战中可能有超过50位候选人,但我不得不对其他48位以上的候选人说声抱歉(笑),你们没有收到邀请。这不是因为场地不够大,而是因为目前实质上就是邹至庄对阵布拉德福德。亚历山大(Alexander)现在已经退出了。因此,这是一场“双雄争霸”的竞争,我们将在下周四,也就是10月15日的辩论舞台上迎来这两位主要候选人。希望大家届时收看。

说到这里,以上就是2026年10月2日星期五本期《#onpoli》播客的全部内容。无论您习惯在哪个平台收听播客,都可以关注我们的节目,以便在每期新节目上线时及时收到通知;您也可以在TVO Today的YouTube频道上观看本期播客的视频版本。

英文原文

Steve Paikin: And we will see. Now, we should also remind viewers that TVO Today Live, which is the monthly town hall show that I host here on TVO, it is co-hosting with the Rotman School of Management at the University of Toronto, a Toronto mayoral debate. It's going to take place next Thursday, October 15th. It will be carried live on TVO at 7 p.m. Eastern time. It will be livestreamed on all our digital platforms. And of course, there may be 50 plus candidates in the race, but I'm sorry to the other [laughter] 48 plus. Uh, you're not invited. This is going to be—chair big enough? No, it's Chow versus Bradford. Alexander's out right now. So, it's a two-horse race and we will have those two horses in the stable uh for our debate next Thursday, October 15th. And we hope you'll join us.

And with that, that is the OnP podcast for this Friday, October 2nd, 2026. You can follow our show wherever you get your podcasts so that you get notified each time a new episode is available and you can see the video version of the podcast on the TVO Today YouTube channel.

约翰·迈克尔·麦克格拉思:如果您有任何反馈意见,无论是好评、批评还是中立看法,我们都非常乐意倾听。请发送电子邮件至 onpolitics@tvo.org。来信请附上您的姓名以及您所在的地区。再次提醒大家,在进入片尾演职员名单之前,请务必在节目结束后继续留下来收看,因为我们准备了一段关于枪支暴力问题的特别专访。这与TVO目前正在播出的一部纪录片紧密相关,该纪录片极其震撼、引人深思,并且感人至深。我们的专访嘉宾将是大卫·库夫医生(Dr. David Kouf),他正全身心致力于减少枪支暴力的工作。

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: Any feedback you have, we're always happy to get it, good, bad, or indifferent. Write us an email at onpolitics@tvo.org. And please include your first and last name and where you're located. And once again, before we go to our credits, please make sure to stick around after the show because we've got a special interview on the topic of gun violence related to an interview that—excuse me, related to a documentary that TVO is playing right now, which is truly spectacular and thoughtful and moving and poignant. Our guest will be Dr. David Kouf who is devoting his life to reducing gun violence right now.

史蒂夫·佩金:本周节目的制作人是马修·奥米拉(Matthew O'Mara),剪辑为科林·基什(Colin Kish),制作支持来自乔纳森·霍洛韦尔(Jonathan Hallowell)以及TVO数字媒体服务团队。

英文原文

Steve Paikin: This week's episode was produced by Matthew O'Mara, editing by Colin Kish. Production support from Jonathan Hallowell and TVO's digital media services team.

约翰·迈克尔·麦克格拉思:洛里·F(Laurie F)担任数字内容执行制作人,凡妮莎·卡塞斯(Vanessa Case)担任媒体副总裁。

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: Laurie F is the executive producer of digital. Vanessa Case is vice president media.

史蒂夫·佩金:大家知道,我们向来最喜欢向出色的演播室团队致敬,感谢他们让播客的视频录制得以顺利呈现。非常感谢你们,感谢导播控制室的各位。下周五见,拜拜!

英文原文

Steve Paikin: You know that we always love to give props to our wonderful studio crew for making the video part of the podcast happen. So, thank you. Thank you. Control room. Thank you. And until next Friday, bye-bye.

约翰·迈克尔·麦克格拉思:拜拜!

英文原文

John Michael McGrath: Bye-bye.

特别专访:创伤透视与枪支暴力干预

主持人:《尼凯漫步》(Nikai Walks)是TVO推出的一部全新纪录片,记录了16岁少年尼凯·福斯特(Nikai Foster)的人生历程。他在多伦多西北部的简与芬奇(Jane and Finch)社区打篮球时,不幸遭遇了一场随机枪击。这部影片追踪了他受伤后的漫长康复过程,并深入探讨了导致此类暴力事件屡见不鲜的深层次系统性问题。

现在就这一议题与我们对话的是大卫·库夫医生(Dr. David Kouf)。他是麦克马斯特大学(McMaster University)荣誉退休教授、放射学系前系主任,同时也是“加拿大医生反对枪支协会”(Canadian Doctors for Protection from Guns)的成员。他今天在安大略省哈密尔顿与我们连线。库夫医生,非常高兴您能参与我们的节目。

英文原文

Host: Nikai Walks is a new documentary from TVO that features the journey of 16-year-old Nikai Foster, who was the victim of a random shooting while playing basketball in the Jane and Finch community in northwest Toronto. The film traces the fallout of his injury and looks at these systemic issues that make this type of violence all too common.

Speaking to us now on this issue, Dr. David Kouf. He is a professor emeritus at McMaster University, past chief and chair of the department of radiology and a member of the Canadian Doctors for Protection from Guns. He joins us in Hamilton, Ontario. Dr. Kouf, great to have you with us.

大卫·库夫医生:谢谢,非常高兴能来到这里,非常感谢你们的邀请,我也很乐意与大家分享一些思考。

英文原文

Dr. David Kouf: Merci, it's a pleasure to be with you and I thank you very much for the invitation and I'll be really happy to share some thoughts with you.

主持人:太棒了。非常感谢您的加入。在正式开始之前,您能否为我们介绍一下您最初加入该组织的背景?

英文原文

Host: Excellent. Uh, thank you so much for joining us. Before we get started, could you give us a little background on why you got involved with this group?

大卫·库夫医生:嗯,你知道,我们移居到了北美。我亲眼目睹了美国发生的那一起起可怕的大规模枪击事件。而当时唯一被反复提出来的应对方案——我一次又一次地看到——就仅仅是所谓的“哀思与祈祷”(thoughts and prayers)。作为一个讲求实际的人,并不是说我不信神或没有信仰,但我绝不认为“哀思与祈祷”真能起到实质作用。在预防此类骇人听闻的恶性事件发生方面,肯定有远比这更有效的办法。

后来多伦多丹佛斯(Danforth)发生了枪击案,随后“加拿大医生反对枪支协会”(CDPG)便在那之后成立了。当我看到这样一群医生走在一起——他们当中许多人由于从事外科手术、担任创伤外科医生或精神科医生,已经在日常工作中直接接触到了这类枪击创伤——他们凝聚在一起,努力想做出改变。我当时就想,也许我也应该加入进去,看看能提供什么帮助。我非常庆幸自己加入了,我也坚信我们需要提高这一议题的关注度和可见度,让更多人深刻认识到我们在枪支问题上所面临的严峻现实。

英文原文

Dr. David Kouf: Well, you know, we moved to North America and I've seen this horrendous mass shootings in the States. And the only action plan which was coming out of that—and I saw that again and again and again—is thoughts and prayers. And you know, being pretty practical, not that I don't believe, but I don't think that thoughts and prayer is really very effective and certainly better ways to prevent these kinds of horrific incidents to happen.

So that's—then there was the shooting on the Danforth and then CDPG came out after that. And when I saw this group of doctors were kind of already exposed to through surgery and being surgeons or psychiatrists and already exposed to this kind of things getting together and trying to do something, I thought, well, maybe I should join and see how I can help with that. And I'm very happy I did. And I believe we need more visibility and people to understand more the problem that we're facing with that.

主持人:库夫医生,我想就此继续请教:您不仅是一名医生,更特别的是您还是一位放射科专家,在您的专业视角下,枪支暴力究竟……

英文原文

Host: Let me follow up on that Dr. Kouf as not just a doctor but as a radiologist in particular what does gun violence...

法医放射学视角下的枪支暴力创伤与前线经历

Dr. Koff:……对你来说是怎样的体验?对我而言,我一直对法医放射学抱有浓厚的兴趣。多年来,汉密尔顿一直设有法医验尸服务;在汉密尔顿综合医院工作期间,我们经常接收大量枪支暴力受害者和枪击案件死伤者。不得不说——很抱歉我不得不提及这些细节——我们需要对装在尸袋里的死者遗体进行 X 光透视检查。我亲眼目睹了人们使用大型霰弹枪自杀所造成的破坏和后果:在 X 光光片上,你往往只能看到残留的下颌骨,颅面部其他结构全都没了。这太可怕了,是一种极其沉重、极具压力的经历。我实在不希望人们走上绝路,因为这是一条无法挽回的单行道。

我看过太多这样的惨状,更不用说那些被高速弹药武器和重型军用级别枪支击伤的患者——他们的骨骼被彻底轰得粉碎。你可能觉得“哦,他们只是受了伤”,但当你真正看到那些肢体被打成什么样时,你会觉得这绝不可能发生、太难以置信了。这就是我所亲历的现实。尽管我们现在不再承担验尸检验服务,但我确实见过太多太多这样的惨剧。

英文原文

Dr. Koff: ...look like for you? So for me, I had a vested interest in forensic radiology, and for a number of years coroner services were based in Hamilton. Working at Hamilton General Hospital, we used to have a lot of gun violence victims and a lot of shootings. I must say—and I'm sorry if I go into these kinds of things—we x-rayed our deceased patients in the body bag, and I could see the impact and effect of people taking their own lives with big shotguns. All you see on the X-ray is just the mandible and nothing left otherwise. It's horrible. It's a very stressful experience, and I don't want people to do that—it's a one-way thing.

So I've seen so many of those, not even talking about the people wounded by high-velocity weaponries and heavy military-grade guns where the bones are shattered. You think, "Oh, they're just wounded," but when you see how the limbs look like, you think no way, this cannot happen. So that's how I've been exposed. We don't have the coroner service anymore, but I've seen a lot of those.

Host:我想追问一个简短的问题:我知道您是一位专业人士,但在面对如此多的惨剧时,您是如何避免罹患创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)的?在目睹这么多痛苦后,您又是如何保持心理健全的?

英文原文

Host: And a quick follow-up: I know you are a professional, but how have you not suffered from PTSD, or how do you keep your sanity in the face of seeing so much misery?

Dr. Koff:大概是通过付诸实际行动吧。这也是我加入加拿大反枪支暴力医生组织(CPDG)的原因之一。因为如果你觉得“我对此无能为力,我们根本没办法改变这一切”,那么你确实会患上 PTSD,会陷入彻底的抑郁,觉得世间全是一片苦海;但如果你坚信自己能够做些什么来减少暴力和枪击事件的发生,我认为那就会赋予你一种目标感,给你一个继续战斗、坚持下去的理由。

英文原文

Dr. Koff: Probably by taking action. And that's one of the reasons why I joined the CPDG. Because if you think, "There is nothing I can do, and there is no way we can act on that," then yes, you get PTSD, you get hopelessly depressed, you think that it's just misery. But if you think there's something which can be done to reduce the amount of violence and shootings, then I think that gives you a purpose, and it gives you a reason to fight and to stay up.

省级政府在枪支治理中的职责与自杀干预

Host:按照通常的看法,我们总认为枪支管制纯粹是一项联邦事务,属于联邦刑法的范畴。但人们毕竟生活在各个城市和省份中。我想请教一下,您如何向观众阐释省级政府在枪支控制方面扮演的角色?

英文原文

Host: We normally think of gun control as a federal matter in terms of federal criminal law. But of course people live in cities and they live in provinces, and I'm wondering if you could explain to our audience what you see as the provincial role in gun control.

Dr. Koff:没错。这里面包含两个层面。正如您所说,人们也生活在偏远地区。事实上,绝大多数枪支暴力事件属于自杀——我认为大约 69% 的涉枪死亡是自杀,且主要发生在偏远北部的偏僻孤立地区。死者多为 50 岁以上的年长男性。他们结束了自己的生命,饱受心理健康问题、孤立无援以及陷入绝望的折磨。如果家里碰巧有一把猎枪或类似武器,他们往往就会开枪自杀。

因此,省级政府的角色至关重要:我们需要制定强有力的医疗卫生政策,在省级层面投入资源来改善心理健康状况,为那些深陷绝望的人群提供支持,尽早介入干预,从而挽救生命。在教育和预防层面,这也正是各省能够发挥作用的地方。这就是我们最应该做好的事情,我也坚信我们一定能为人们提供切实的帮助。

英文原文

Dr. Koff: Right. So there are two aspects, and as you say, people live in remote areas. Most of this gun violence is suicide; I think 69% of deaths by guns is suicide, mostly in the north where people are isolated. It's mostly men, older—I would say more than 50—and they take their lives. They suffer from mental issues, isolation, the feeling that there's no hope. And if they happen to have a shotgun or a rifle at home, they take their life.

So the provincial role is: we need to have a strong health policy to provide mental health at the provincial level, support those people who have no hope, and step in before, to save lives. That's also where the provinces can play a role in terms of education and prevention. That's really what we could do best, and I'm sure we can help people with that.

农村与北部地区的枪支文化与公共卫生应对策略

Host:这确实很有意思。当媒体报道枪支暴力时,包括您刚才在先前的回答中提到的第一个例子也是多伦多的丹佛斯枪击案,大家往往把焦点集中在城市地区。然而如果翻看统计数据,安大略省农村和北部地区按人均计算的枪支伤亡率反而要高得多。在农村和偏远北部,枪支在日常生活中的融入度远高于大城市。面对这种现象,我们该如何找到突破口?

英文原文

Host: You know, it's interesting when media cover these stories, and in fact when you gave an earlier answer, the first example you gave was the Danforth in Toronto. We do tend to focus on the urban areas where these things can take place, and yet I think if you look at the statistics, it's actually in more rural and northern parts of Ontario that on a per capita basis more of this takes place. How do we make a dent in this kind of phenomenon where guns in rural and northern areas are much more a part of the fabric of everyday life than they are in big cities?

Dr. Koff:确实如此。需要说明的是,CPDG 的初衷和角色绝不是要没收所有人的枪支。我们不是来剥夺猎人和农场主拥有枪支的权利的。他们在农场地产上确实需要枪支,需要保护自己的牲畜不受野兽捕食者的伤害。很多人长期以来一直借题发挥,散布这种普遍的误解来抹黑 CPDG,声称“你们在剥夺我们的自由,我们有权利持枪,我们是守法公民”。这种“守法公民”的说辞我们听得太多了,在某种程度上甚至显得荒谬。正是这些所谓的守法公民,当陷入走投无路的绝境时,用枪结束了自己的生命。

所以,我们并不是要把这些枪支全部没收,而是希望确保人们以恰当的方式妥善存放枪支:将枪支锁入保险柜,弹药和枪支分开放置在不同地点。通过增加获取枪支的繁琐步骤,就可以在很大程度上延缓冲动自杀的过程。但更根本的是,我们必须与社会孤立作斗争,提供支持系统,及早筛查心理健康问题,确保在演变成自杀或暴力行为之前进行治疗。

举个例子:在我看来,枪支暴力就是一个纯粹的公共卫生问题,必须以对待公共卫生事件的方式来解决。比如我的一个邻居,他在开车时出现过一次短暂失神发作,去看医生后,在医疗调查评估期间,他的驾照被依法暂扣;在完成全部检查、核磁共振检查并获得医生许可之前,他都被禁止驾驶。对待枪支也应当采取同样的原则。你绝不能让一个存在严重精神心理问题的人随意摆弄重型武器,从而对自己或整个社区构成致命风险。因此,我们必须建立机制来识别和治疗心理问题,杜绝让患有精神心理疾患的人轻易接触到枪支。在预防和心理支持方面,这绝对是我们必须采取的首要举措。

英文原文

Dr. Koff: Right. The idea and the role of CPDG is not to take away guns from people. We're not here to prevent hunters and farmers from having guns. They need to have guns on the property; they need to be able to defend their cattle against predators and things. That's a common misunderstanding that people have been using a lot to try to discredit the CPDG: "You're taking your freedom away, we have the right, we're law-abiding citizens." And this "law-abiding citizen" line, we've heard it so much that at some point it's just ridiculous. These are law-abiding citizens who are taking their own lives because they don't see any way out.

So we won't take these guns away, but we want these people to make sure that they are stored in an appropriate way. They are locked in a cabinet, and the ammunition is not in the same location. If you put more steps to limit access to the gun, it can already slow down the process. But mainly, we have to fight against isolation. You have to provide support, we have to detect mental issues, and be sure that we can treat that before it ends up in suicide or in violence.

You know, the example I have—because gun violence is a public health issue; from my standpoint it's nothing other than that, and it has to be addressed the same way: one of my neighbors, for instance, had an episode of absence driving, went to see the doctor, and his driver's license was taken away for the time of the investigation. He couldn't drive as long as he was not cleared and had undergone all the examinations, MRI, and everything. The same thing should apply to guns. You cannot let someone with mental issues just manipulate heavy weaponry and be a risk for himself or for the community. So we have to make sure that we have ways to identify mental issues and treat them, and not let people with mental issues have access to guns. That's probably one of the first things we can do: prevention and mental support.

将枪支暴力定性为公共卫生议题的立法探讨

Host:2022 年,时任省议员米齐·亨特(Mitzie Hunter)曾提出一项个人议员法案,旨在修改《安全健康社区法》,将枪支暴力正式确立为一项公共卫生议题。虽然该法案最终未能立法通过,但你们的组织当时对其表示了明确支持。您能解释一下该法案具体包含哪些内容,以及你们为何支持它吗?

英文原文

Host: There was a private member's bill in 2022 that was introduced by then MPP Mitzie Hunter that would have amended the Safe and Healthy Communities Act to make gun violence a public health issue. It didn't make it into law, but your group supported the bill. Can you explain what that bill would have done and why you supported it?

Dr. Koff:我想该法案的核心——正如您在这里提到的第 9 号法案——其宗旨是为遭受枪支暴力创伤的人群提供救助支持,涵盖心理健康辅导并给予切实保障。之所以未获通过,由于我并非职业政客,也没有过深涉足立法政治细节,但据我了解,当时立法过程中存在某些混淆,有人质疑相关条款是否已被涵盖在第 60 号法案中,最终导致人们认为“我们不再需要这项法案了”。但我坚信我们必须纳入这些保障,并且这种心理创伤医疗支持必须纳入安大略省健康保险计划(OHIP)的报销范围,让民众能够真正享受到这项服务。因此,确实需要有人重新审查该法案的搁置原因,我们应当重新提交立法提案,确保受害人群获得所需的援助。

英文原文

Dr. Koff: So I think the role—I believe you mentioned here Bill 9—the idea was that the bill would have provided support for people who have been exposed to gun violence, in terms of mental health and really having support for that. It didn't go through because—I'm not a politician and I'm not too much involved in this kind of thing, but I understand there was some kind of confusion over whether it was not already included in another bill, in Bill 60, and people at the end of the day said, "Well, we don't need this one." But I strongly believe that we need to include that, and we need to have this kind of mental care covered by OHIP and made available to people. So someone needs to look into what happened with this bill, and we should resubmit and make sure that people have access to the support they need.

加强教育宣传与严密法律监管的权衡

Host:科夫医生,最后我想再向您请教一个问题:为了从根本上改善当前这种严峻局面,社会大致可以采取两种不同的解决途径。您在之前的回答中提到,公众自身可以通过提升枪支安全意识、加深理解和强化安全教育来做许多工作;而正如您刚才阐述的,立法层面同样可以提供解决方案。您认为我们未来的侧重点应该落在哪里?是更多的教育宣传,还是更加严厉的法律法规?

英文原文

Host: Dr. Koff, let me ask you one last question, which is to say: there are two different avenues, I guess, that society can go down in order to make this situation better. In one of your previous answers, you suggested people themselves can do a lot in terms of better gun safety, better understanding, and better education. And then of course, as you just described, there are also legislative solutions to this as well. Where do you think the accent should lie: more education or tougher laws?

Dr. Koff:对我而言,我认为推进更多深入的教育宣传很可能是更可行的路径。这让我想起了许多年前的情景——那时我还很年轻,汽车开始强制要求系安全带,当时人们也曾大声抗议,高喊“你们在剥夺我们的自由!我们应该有不系安全带的权利”。抗议归抗议,但如果你回顾一下,仅仅因为推行了安全带,就有无数条宝贵生命得以挽救……

英文原文

Dr. Koff: Well, for me, I think more education is probably the way to go. It reminds me—we've seen that years and years ago. I was still young at the time, but when safety belts were made mandatory in cars, people had been screaming, "You're taking away our freedom! We should be allowed not to wear the seat belt." Fine, but if you look at the number of lives which have been saved just...

公共安全与健康意识的转变:从安全带、控烟到枪支管控

Dr. David: 通过系安全带,可以大幅减少伤亡人数,同时也降低了社会因不系安全带所承受的医疗与经济成本。你会觉得,嗯,这是显而易见的常识。而如今,大家坐进汽车后的第一反应就是系上安全带,甚至完全不用思考就会自然而然地去做。

我们在吸烟这件事情上也看到了同样的发展历程。吸烟不仅会导致肺癌,还会引发其他可怕的致命性肺部疾病,比如慢性阻塞性肺疾病(COPD)、肺气肿等,许多人因此丧命。尽管烟草行业的游说集团曾经极其强大,但公众逐渐开始意识到吸烟的巨大危害,并采取相应措施来降低死于癌症的风险。人们确实做到了,看看现在的局面就一清二楚。

英文原文

Dr. David: ...by wearing the seatbelt and decreasing the amount of injuries and the cost for the society of not wearing a seatbelt, you think, well, there's common sense. And now the first thing you do when you sit in your car is to fasten your seatbelt. It's not even—you don't even think about it.

We've seen the same thing with smoking tobacco. It's not only lung cancer, but it's also this horrible lung disease which kill—you know, COPD and emphysema and things like that, and people will die from that. Slowly people got to understand—even if the tobacco lobby was extremely powerful—they started to understand that smoking can be dangerous and they have to take the measures to reduce the risk of dying from cancer, and they did it. Look now what the situation is.

Dr. David: 当然,立法在这当中发挥了至关重要的作用,通过出台禁令,禁止人们在公共场所、办公室和餐馆等区域吸烟。我们理应将立法规范与公众教育这两手都抓起来。但我深信,单凭教育我们就能取得很大成效——让人们发自内心地认识到必须时刻保持审慎与警惕。

另一个问题是:为什么普通人需要拥有军用级别甚至具备武器级威力的枪械?这完全没有任何合理依据。我能在401号高速公路上开坦克吗?显然不能,法律也绝不允许我这么做。大家都明白,军用武器是供士兵和军队作战使用的。这类武器绝对应当从街头和普通家庭中彻底清除。

因此,我认为我们可能需要双管齐下:一方面是从学校最基础的幼龄阶段就普及深入扎实的教育,向年轻学生阐释接触和持有枪支的潜在风险与严重危害;另一方面则是制定严密的监管规章与法律制度。归根结底,我们两方面都不可或缺。但作为医生,我们能够在教育普及与风险预防方面贡献力量。预防才是解决问题的根本所在。

英文原文

Dr. David: So of course legislation have been very helpful by preventing and forbidding people to smoke in public areas, in offices and restaurants and all that. And we should pair both, but I believe that with education we can already achieve a lot by getting people to understand that they have to be careful.

The other thing is, why do people need to have military-grade weapons? There is no justification. Do I drive a tank on the 401? No. And I wouldn't be allowed to do that. So, you know, military weapons are for soldiers and for military. So that should be definitely removed from the streets and from homes.

So I believe that probably having both: a strong education starting in school and at the youngest level to explain young students the risk and dangers of having access to guns, as well as having strong regulations and laws. We need both at the end of the day. But for us as doctors, we can help with education and prevention. Prevention is key.

访谈结语与纪录片推荐

主持人: 太棒了。大卫·考夫医生(Dr. David),非常感谢您今天抽空参与我们的节目。

Dr. David: 谢谢(Merci)。

英文原文

Host: Perfect. Dr. David, thank you so much for joining us today.

Dr. David: Merci.

主持人: 我们今天邀请考夫医生深入探讨这个议题,当然也是因为TVO电视台目前正在展播的相关纪录片。大家可以通过收看《Nikai Walks》来了解更多内容,这就是该纪录片的名称。目前该片已在TVO Docs的YouTube官方频道上线播放。我们也会在视频下方的简介区附上相关链接,方便大家前往观看。非常感谢各位收看本期节目!

英文原文

Host: Well, we're talking to Dr. Kauf of course because of this documentary that we're playing on TVO right now. And you can watch Nikai Walks—that's the name of the documentary—and it's available on the TVO Docs YouTube channel. And we will put a link in the description of the video so you can check that out as well. Thanks so much for joining us.

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