引言：历史的警示

History has taught us many lessons.

历史给我们留下了许多教训。

And we should pay attention to its signs because we might be heading towards World War III.

我们应该留意这些迹象，因为我们可能正在走向第三次世界大战。

One way to understand today's events is to look for clues from the past.

理解当今事件的一种方法是从历史中寻找线索。

But cherry-picking historical events to forecast the future is a risky exercise that oftentimes only reinforces our biases.

然而，选择性地挑选历史事件来预测未来是一种有风险的做法，它往往只会强化我们的偏见。

So I want to do something different.

所以我想做一些不同的事情。

Instead of comparing historical examples with what is happening now, I will examine four major dimensions of life: the social, economic, political and military dimensions.

我将不再将历史案例与当下正在发生的事情进行比较，而是考察生活的四个主要维度：社会、经济、政治和军事维度。

And I will analyze key trends within each one of those dimensions in three critical moments in history: before World War I, before World War II and today.

我将分析这四个维度在历史上的三个关键时刻的关键趋势：第一次世界大战前、第二次世界大战前和今天。

社会维度：技术革新与社会动荡

So let's begin with the social dimension.

那么，让我们从社会维度开始。

And there are many factors that shape societies.

有许多因素塑造着社会。

But I want to focus on how technological innovations have produced social anxieties and destabilized societies throughout history.

但我想重点关注技术创新如何在历史上引发社会焦虑并破坏社会稳定。

Before World War I, The Second Industrial Revolution (Second Industrial Revolution: 19世纪末20世纪初以电力和内燃机为标志的技术进步与工业发展) was transforming life with electricity, cars, phones, mass production and more.

第一次世界大战前，第二次工业革命 (Second Industrial Revolution: 19世纪末20世纪初以电力和内燃机为标志的技术进步与工业发展) 正以电力、汽车、电话、大规模生产等方式改变着人们的生活。

While many celebrated these advances, they also disrupted societies.

尽管许多人赞美这些进步，但它们也扰乱了社会。

For instance, machines replaced workers, and new farming techniques uprooted populations from the countryside.

例如，机器取代了工人，新的农业技术使农村人口流离失所。

These led to insecurity and resentment.

这些导致了不安全感和怨恨。

At the same time, traditional authorities, such as churches and monarchies, they were questioned at that time and new mass movements, they emerged, such as labor unions and nationalist leagues.

与此同时，教会和君主制等传统权威在那时受到了质疑，新的群众运动也随之兴起，例如工会和民族主义联盟。

People were afraid that progress was shaking the very foundation of societies.

人们担心进步正在动摇社会的根基。

Moving a little bit ahead, in the interwar years before World War II, technology continued to affect life.

时间稍微快进一点，在第二次世界大战前的两次世界大战之间，技术继续影响着生活。

The word “robot” was even coined in 1921, and it symbolizes fears of possibly machines substituting human jobs.

“机器人”一词甚至在1921年被创造出来，它象征着人们对机器可能取代人类工作的恐惧。

At the same time, or a little bit later, the famous economist John Maynard Keynes warned us in 1930 of a new disease, namely, technological unemployment (Technological Unemployment: 因技术进步导致机器取代人工，造成劳动力失业的现象).

与此同时，或稍晚一些，著名经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯在1930年警告我们一种新疾病，即技术性失业 (Technological Unemployment: 因技术进步导致机器取代人工，造成劳动力失业的现象)。

During this period, we had communications revolutions that completely changed public discourse.

在此期间，我们经历了通信革命，彻底改变了公共话语。

So these media became powerful tools for propaganda, polarizing politics and amplifying social fears.

因此，这些媒体成为了强大的宣传工具，使政治两极分化，并放大了社会恐惧。

Traditionalists, at that time, they were worried that modern culture was simply eroding tradition, family and religion.

当时的传统主义者担心现代文化正在侵蚀传统、家庭和宗教。

Today, we are going through a technological revolution driven by AI, digital media and social platforms.

今天，我们正在经历一场由人工智能、数字媒体和社交平台驱动的技术革命。

The internet, smartphones and social media have transformed the way we work, communicate and even think.

互联网、智能手机和社交媒体改变了我们的工作、交流甚至思考方式。

Psychologists debate how digital life is affecting children's development, while concerns over privacy and surveillance and AI-driven job loss continue to grow.

心理学家们正在讨论数字生活如何影响儿童发展，同时对隐私、监控和人工智能导致的失业的担忧持续增长。

Technologies are spreading ideas across the globe.

技术正在全球范围内传播思想。

But also they are amplifying frustrations, fears and divisions faster than ever before.

但它们也以前所未有的速度放大了挫折、恐惧和分裂。

In short, technological progress brings incredible benefits, but they also breed insecurity, resentment and uncertainty.

简而言之，技术进步带来了巨大的好处，但它们也滋生了不安全感、怨恨和不确定性。

Historically, such anxieties have made societies more unstable and vulnerable to extreme ideologies that fuel militarism and war.

从历史上看，这种焦虑使社会更加不稳定，更容易受到助长军国主义和战争的极端意识形态的影响。

经济维度：繁荣与相对实力

Now let's talk about the economics.

现在我们来谈谈经济学。

And I want to present two perspectives on the economics.

我想从两个角度来阐述经济学。

The first one is related to a common idea that economic prosperity prevents wars.

第一个观点与一个普遍的看法有关，即经济繁荣可以阻止战争。

And the argument goes like this: it makes no sense for a nation to go to war and destroy its own wealth.

这个论点是这样的：一个国家发动战争并摧毁自己的财富是毫无意义的。

So they don't want to go to war.

所以他们不想发动战争。

Before World War I, in 1914, Britain dominated global trade and finance.

第一次世界大战前，1914年，英国主导着全球贸易和金融。

Germany was thriving industrially and expanding its exports.

德国工业蓬勃发展，出口不断扩大。

Both countries, they knew that there were no financial benefits that justify the enormous economic costs of going to war.

两国都清楚，没有任何经济利益能够证明发动战争所带来的巨大经济成本是合理的。

However, World War I taught us a very important lesson.

然而，第一次世界大战给了我们一个非常重要的教训。

Economics may explain what can be done, but politics decides what will be done.

经济学可能解释了能做什么，但政治决定了将做什么。

Fear, ambition, miscalculation, all overruled by even the strongest economic success.

恐惧、野心、误判，所有这些都凌驾于即使是最强大的经济成功之上。

Showing us that simply war and peace are not decided by economic arguments alone.

这表明，战争与和平并非仅由经济因素决定。

We have to take into consideration political, ideological and strategic reasons.

我们必须考虑政治、意识形态和战略原因。

OK, so what is going on with the second perspective?

好的，那么第二个观点又如何呢？

And the common perspective says the following: people assume that nations want to be wealthy and powerful.

普遍的观点是这样的：人们认为国家都希望富裕和强大。

It's not that they don't want that, they do, but they want something else.

他们并非不想要这些，他们确实想要，但他们还想要别的东西。

It's better for them if they are wealthier or more powerful than their rivals.

如果他们比竞争对手更富裕或更强大，那对他们来说更好。

Right? So what matters is the relative power.

对吗？所以重要的是相对实力。

I want to be more powerful, I don't want to be just powerful.

我想要更强大，我不仅仅是想要强大。

I want to be more powerful than my enemy or my rival.

我想要比我的敌人或竞争对手更强大。

Let’s look at what happened in World War II.

让我们看看第二次世界大战中发生了什么。

And in that moment, Germany and Japan, they did not see trade as mutually beneficial.

在那时，德国和日本并不认为贸易是互惠互利的。

Why? They were gaining less than their rivals, Britain, France and the US, which made them vulnerable.

为什么？因为他们从贸易中获得的利益少于他们的竞争对手——英国、法国和美国，这让他们感到脆弱。

What was their response? Searching for self-sufficiency and, eventually, war.

他们的回应是什么？寻求自给自足，并最终走向战争。

Alright, so what is going on today?

那么，今天又发生了什么？

There are two main ideas that we see all over.

我们随处可见两种主要观点。

The US-China economic interdependence will prevent war.

美中经济相互依存将阻止战争。

Really? I just told you what happened in World War I.

真的吗？我刚刚告诉了你们第一次世界大战中发生的事情。

Right? So economics alone do not determine geopolitical outcomes.

对吗？所以经济学本身并不能决定地缘政治结果。

We have to consider political, strategic, ideological and many other factors.

我们必须考虑政治、战略、意识形态以及许多其他因素。

When we think of what is going on after or what happened after the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

当我们思考新冠疫情之后或俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之后发生的事情时。

At that moment, states realized that it's too risky to be really dependent on your rival.

在那一刻，各国意识到过度依赖竞争对手风险太大。

So as nations reassess today, their economic dependencies, they are all moving towards one thing or actually two: self-sufficiency and economic nationalism, just like before World War II.

因此，各国今天在重新评估其经济依赖性时，都朝着一个方向，或者说两个方向迈进：自给自足和经济民族主义，就像第二次世界大战前一样。

History reminds us that wars are not only caused by economic situations, but we have to take into consideration political factors and relative power.

历史提醒我们，战争不仅由经济状况引起，我们还必须考虑政治因素和相对实力。

政治维度：两极分化与秩序崩溃

Alright, so let's go to the political dimension.

好的，现在我们转向政治维度。

Here, I want to talk about polarization.

在这里，我想谈谈两极分化。

And polarization not only divides societies, but ultimately it might destroy the political order.

两极分化不仅分裂社会，最终还可能摧毁政治秩序。

Polarization comes in many forms: divided media, political battles, legislative deadlocks, contested elections and its worst form: political violence.

两极分化有多种形式：媒体分裂、政治斗争、立法僵局、有争议的选举以及最糟糕的形式：政治暴力。

And that's when armed groups emerge, because they don't trust institutions to resolve the disputes of society.

那时武装团体就会出现，因为他们不信任现有机构能够解决社会争端。

What do we have in World War I, before that, actually?

实际上，在第一次世界大战之前我们有什么呢？

In the Balkans, there is deep polarization and many nationalist movements clashing against the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

在巴尔干地区，存在着深刻的两极分化，许多民族主义运动与奥匈帝国发生冲突。

And that led to the Serbian group, the secret Serbian group, Black Hand, to assassinate Archduke Franz Ferdinand in 1914.

这导致了塞尔维亚秘密组织“黑手会”于1914年刺杀了弗朗茨·斐迪南大公。

Which wasn't an isolated event.

这并非一个孤立事件。

It was the result of years of political violence in a fractured society that triggered World War I.

它是分裂社会中多年政治暴力的结果，并最终引发了第一次世界大战。

Now what do we have before World War II?

那么第二次世界大战前我们又有什么呢？

The same situation.

同样的情况。

Germany, the Weimar Republic (Weimar Republic: 1918年至1933年间德国的共和制政府), was struggling with escalating polarization, and violence became common.

德国的魏玛共和国 (Weimar Republic: 1918年至1933年间德国的共和制政府) 正在与日益加剧的两极分化作斗争，暴力变得普遍。

Assassinations of key political figures such as the finance minister in 1921 and the foreign minister in the 1922 that demonstrated this.

1921年财政部长和1922年外交部长的遇刺事件就证明了这一点。

Soon, at that time, all political factions, from the right, the center and the left, they had their own militias.

很快，那时所有政治派别，无论是右翼、中间派还是左翼，都有自己的民兵组织。

And obviously, this brought instability, and we know, the rise of authoritarianism and World War II.

显然，这带来了不稳定，我们知道，也导致了威权主义的兴起和第二次世界大战。

What do we have today?

今天我们又有什么呢？

Very interesting and scary in some ways.

在某些方面非常有趣且令人恐惧。

January 6, 2021. The attack on US Capitol.

2021年1月6日，美国国会大厦遭到袭击。

Some Trump supporters contested the result of the election.

一些特朗普支持者对选举结果提出异议。

That is a clear example where polarization became violent.

这是一个两极分化演变为暴力的清晰例子。

More recently, several assassination attempts against President Trump.

最近，针对特朗普总统的几次暗杀未遂事件。

Polarization and violence in the United States is coming from all sides.

美国的两极分化和暴力正在从四面八方涌现。

But this is not only the US.

但这不仅仅发生在美国。

Let's look at Germany.

让我们看看德国。

There is a deep surge or a big surge in political violence in Germany.

德国的政治暴力事件大幅增加。

Over the last five years, more than 10,000 attacks on politicians.

过去五年中，针对政客的袭击事件超过1万起。

While the far right supporters of AfD (AfD - Alternative for Germany: 德国的右翼民粹主义政党) have committed a lot of attacks against other politicians, the politicians from AfD themselves, they are a frequent target for this political violence.

尽管德国选择党 (AfD - Alternative for Germany: 德国的右翼民粹主义政党) 的极右翼支持者对其他政客实施了大量袭击，但德国选择党本身的政客也经常成为这种政治暴力的目标。

As you can see, the signs are really big, and when we analyze what history shows us, we realize that once armed groups emerge, compromise becomes impossible and conflict inevitable.

正如你们所看到的，这些迹象非常明显，当我们分析历史向我们展示的一切时，我们意识到一旦武装团体出现，妥协就会变得不可能，冲突也就不可避免。

If polarization nowadays has reached this level, society or the political order is on the brink of collapse.

如果当今的两极分化已达到这个程度，社会或政治秩序就处于崩溃的边缘。

军事维度：联盟与全球冲突

Now let's go to the final dimension, the military dimension.

现在我们进入最后一个维度，军事维度。

And here, I want to focus on alliances because they are key to understand how conflicts become worldwide disasters.

在这里，我想重点关注联盟，因为它们是理解冲突如何演变为全球灾难的关键。

Wars or world wars, they don't start as global wars.

战争或世界大战，它们并非以全球战争的形式开始。

They begin as regional wars.

它们始于区域战争。

And then a regional problem becomes this big problem because of the alliances.

然后，一个区域问题因为联盟的关系而演变成一个大问题。

Let's take a look at World War I.

让我们看看第一次世界大战。

Before that, we had a dispute between Austria and Serbia, and because of the alliance, it escalated to become a European war.

在此之前，奥地利和塞尔维亚之间存在争议，由于联盟关系，它升级成为一场欧洲战争。

And once Britain joined, it became a global war.

一旦英国加入，它就变成了一场全球战争。

The same thing happened in World War II.

第二次世界大战也发生了同样的事情。

We had three regional conflicts, separated conflicts, initiated by three different countries.

我们有三个区域冲突，是三个不同国家发起的独立冲突。

Germany wanted hegemony in Europe; Italy sought an empire in the Mediterranean and Africa; and Japan wanted to control China and Asia Pacific.

德国想要欧洲霸权；意大利寻求在地中海和非洲建立帝国；日本则想控制中国和亚太地区。

World War II only became a world war when the United States entered the war after the Pearl Harbor attack.

第二次世界大战直到美国在珍珠港袭击后参战才演变为一场世界大战。

So how is this related to today?

那么这与今天有什么关系呢？

We already have two regional wars.

我们已经有两场区域战争。

Russia in Ukraine and Iran, with its proxy wars (Proxy Wars: 两个或多个主要国家通过支持第三方武装力量进行对抗，而不直接交战的冲突) in the Middle East.

俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争，以及伊朗在中东的代理人战争 (Proxy Wars: 两个或多个主要国家通过支持第三方武装力量进行对抗，而不直接交战的冲突)。

And the third one is taking shape as China aims to take Taiwan.

而第三场战争正随着中国旨在夺取台湾而逐渐成形。

Maybe in that third theater we're going to see more countries joining and then, as in World War II, we're going to have three regional conflicts that become a global war.

也许在第三个战场，我们将看到更多国家加入，然后，就像第二次世界大战一样，我们将有三场区域冲突演变成一场全球战争。

There is another important aspect of alliances, which is the level of integration, how united they really are.

联盟还有一个重要方面，那就是一体化程度，它们到底有多团结。

And this is interesting.

这很有趣。

When we look at the Axis Powers (Axis Powers: 第二次世界大战中以德国、意大利、日本为首的军事联盟) of the 1930s -- Germany, Italy and Japan -- they were not allied.

当我们回顾20世纪30年代的轴心国 (Axis Powers: 第二次世界大战中以德国、意大利、日本为首的军事联盟)——德国、意大利和日本——他们并非真正结盟。

Actually, they were on opposite sides.

实际上，他们曾处于对立面。

When we look at the crisis in Austria in 1934 and in Ethiopia in 1935, Italy was on one side and Germany was on the other.

当我们看1934年奥地利危机和1935年埃塞俄比亚危机时，意大利站在一方，德国站在另一方。

When we look at who was helping China against Japan until late 1938, that was Germany.

当我们看直到1938年末是谁在帮助中国对抗日本时，那是德国。

And then comparing this to today, we have a new axis being formed.

然后将此与今天进行比较，我们正在形成一个新的轴心。

China, Russia, North Korea and Iran.

中国、俄罗斯、朝鲜和伊朗。

Today, they are all united.

今天，他们都团结一致。

Like who sends ammunition, weapons and even soldiers to help Russia fight Ukraine? North Korea.

比如，谁向俄罗斯派遣弹药、武器甚至士兵来帮助其对抗乌克兰？朝鲜。

Who gives food and energy to North Korea? China.

谁向朝鲜提供食物和能源？中国。

Who buys Iran's sanctioned oil? China.

谁购买伊朗受制裁的石油？中国。

Who buys Russia's gas? China.

谁购买俄罗斯的天然气？中国。

And China supplies Russia with electronic equipment to keep its war.

中国还向俄罗斯提供电子设备以维持其战争。

As you can see, the axis of today, which I call the Axis of Dictatorships, they're really united, much more than the axis of the '30s.

正如你们所看到的，今天的这个轴心，我称之为“独裁轴心”，他们非常团结，比20世纪30年代的轴心国要团结得多。

And on the other hand, we look at the opposing alliance, which is what?

另一方面，我们看看对立的联盟，那是什么？

NATO (NATO - North Atlantic Treaty Organization: 北大西洋公约组织，由北美和欧洲国家组成的军事联盟) and the democracies, they are falling apart.

北约 (NATO - North Atlantic Treaty Organization: 北大西洋公约组织，由北美和欧洲国家组成的军事联盟) 和民主国家，它们正在分崩离析。

And they are breaking, and they are divided.

它们正在瓦解，并且四分五裂。

History tells us that alliances are very important.

历史告诉我们，联盟非常重要。

If we have the aggressor's alliance growing stronger and the opposing alliance becoming divided and weak, the incentives for the aggressors to strike, they are really big.

如果侵略者的联盟变得更强大，而对立的联盟变得分裂和虚弱，那么侵略者发动攻击的动机就会非常大。

结论：历史的韵脚

I'm not here talking about any inevitable destiny.

我在这里并非在谈论任何不可避免的命运。

But I'm looking for historical patterns that help us connect the dots.

但我正在寻找能帮助我们联系历史点的模式。

And with that, we might not repeat the mistakes of the past.

这样，我们也许就不会重蹈覆辙。

And to end, I want to remind you of the famous aphorism.

最后，我想提醒你们那句著名的格言。

History does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes.

历史不会重演，但它常常押韵。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）