Good morning everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the market open.

We are live. It is Tuesday, December 9th, and I'm happy to be back on the show.

Thank you everybody for being here. First of all,

I am sorry I missed yesterday for the market open and the close. Also missed Sunday for the future show.

I got sick, but not like sick to the point where I had to go to the hospital and like get antibiotics or there's like some big infection or anything.

I just got a cold and it was one of those colds where your throat is hurting. You're coughing. You're sneezing.

You're going to hear me sniffle a lot throughout the stream.

I got a towel here with me the whole time because it's still not the best.

I got like three hours of sleep last night. Slept at 1:00, woke up at 4.

I've been up since 4:30. Like I just could not sleep last night.

But it's not like I need to go to the hospital or anything like that.

So it's one of those things where I just forget talking.

Yesterday I couldn't even like look at a screen because just like the light was affecting my eyes.

It was just it was a mess yesterday and it kind of you know I felt it Saturday night.

I think what happened on Saturday I was walking outside in the cold and know I don't know if this is technically how it happens but I don't think I was really wearing a scarf.

So my my my neck is kind of sensitive to this stuff. And then boom I ended up just getting a cold.

And so that's that's kind of how it played out. I felt it Saturday night.

Sunday I woke up. I was like this doesn't feel the best.

I was like, "All right, let me skip the future show. Monday morning, I'll be okay."

Then Monday morning, I woke up. I was like, "There's no way. There's no way this is happening."

So, we are back.

I don't think it's anything too serious.

If it was serious, I wouldn't be able to be streaming live.

I mean, the most my fever was was 97.5. So, it's like, you know, I I never even got above a 90. I didn't even get close to a 99 on the the fever scale.

So, I think I should be okay and I'm happy to be back.

But nonetheless, we did have a stream scheduled for last night with a rapper 24K Golden.

Shout out to him and shout out to anyone who watched the stream last night.

I really didn't want to cancel that stream.

I was supposed to go to his concert on Saturday. I missed or Sunday night. I missed the concert because of being sick.

And then so I know a lot of you guys are like, "You didn't seem too sick last night."

It's because I like drugged up on Nyquil and Tylenol to make sure I could do that stream because like there's not too many opportunities.

That stream was scheduled for about a month and I really didn't want to cancel that because I was good enough to do that stream by the end of the day after sleeping for like 10 hours and so that's why we were able to do it.

But yeah, no fever, nothing too crazy.

If it was anything that bad, I would have told you guys, but it was enough to the point where even trying to talk in front of a screen for five hours wouldn't have would have made sense.

But we are back. I'm happy to be here.

Thank everybody for being here.

We got a lot to talk about. Tons of stuff that happened over the past couple of days, definitely over the past 24 hours.

This Netflix story is absolutely crazy. The amount of twists and turns that it has taken was wild.

So, we're going to talk about what's going on with Netflix and Paramount.

You've got Nvidia updates on Nvidia and China.

Some stuff that's bullish, but not necessarily bullish enough to get the stock really moving, although the stock was moving yesterday.

So, we'll talk about that and we'll go deeper into we got jobs data that we'll talk about. private ADP payrolls.

Microsoft making a $17 billion investment into India for AI infrastructure as of this morning.

So we'll be talking about that.

Uh bunch of different capital raises. So Coree 2.25 dilution in convertible notes.

They have extended that offer from 2 billion to 2.25.

That stock was down yesterday. It's recovering a little bit in the pre-markets.

Um and overall markets are red.

Now, the biggest reason they're red, I think, and probably the reason they're going to stay red, I mean, maybe we recover later in the in the day, S&P 500 right here. I mean, it's basically flat. It was worse about an hour ago. Right now, it's relatively okay. Uh, is we have the Fed meeting tomorrow.

S&P 500 right here. I mean, it's basically flat. It was worse about an hour ago. Right now, it's relatively okay.

So, the Fed meeting is a big big deal.

FOMC that I definitely wanted to recover before the FOMC meeting because that is going to be a massive, massive meeting.

We are going to see if we finally get this rate cut that we've all been waiting for.

if it's priced in, if it's not priced in, how the market reacts to it, how the trajectory for the rest of December, rest of 2025 ends up going once we do get that rate cut,

which right now the probabilities are at 89% or 87.2%.

So, there's still a 12.8% chance we don't get it.

I think it's unlikely, but there is a chance.

And so, we'll talk about the implications of that as well.

Also, we have big earnings this week.

I mean, today after the bell, we'll have technical Tuesday as always, but we have GameStop, which is not that big of a deal.

Tomorrow you have Oracle and Adobe.

And then on Thursday you have Broadcom, Costco, and Lululemon.

So Wednesday, Thursday we actually have a decent chunk of earnings to go through.

And we'll be looking at what those earnings look like and doing a little bit of a preview of those earnings as we get into the rest of the week.

All right, let's get into it.

I think let's start off with this Netflix news. last night. Big deal coming out of actually, let's go to Nvidia before we do Netflix.

Um, so Trump basically said, "Okay, I'll bite."

And Nvidia is allowed to sell into China.

So H200s, which are the 2023 version of Nvidia's best chip, is now approved for customers in China.

25% of each of those ships is going to be sold to or is going to have a revenue share with the government which originally was 15%.

So Donnie T stepped it up to 25%.

He says Nvidia's US customers are already moving soon with their incredible highly advanced black belt chips and soon Ruben neither of which are part of the deal and my administration will always put America first.

Now this was really important for Nvidia.

We touched 190 for the first time since earnings, which was important to see because finally we got Nvidia back into the groove of things.

And you know, I think Nvidia should be well over at least 200 right now or at least close to 200 just given the earnings that we saw.

The reason Nvidia is not back at 190 is because the Chinese came out this morning and they said, "Hey, uh, well, we want the chips, but we don't really want the chips."

So according to two people of knowledge of the matter as per the Financial Times, regulators in Beijing have been discussing ways to permit limited access to the H200, Nvidia's second best generation artificial intelligence chip.

Uh essentially regulators are weighing an approval regime where buyers might justify why local chips are not enough.

So why the Huawei chips are not as good as the um H200's.

And then and only then would you be able to get access to the H200s.

Obviously China and and you know this is not a secret. They've said this a while ago. They want Blackwell and they've been wanting Blackwell for a long time.

The United States has not really budged on that.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio is being really stringent on the idea of Blackwell actually being sold to other uh countries.

So, I mean, look, I I I don't think this is going to move the needle massively for Nvidia in the context of some amazing uh increase of revenue because they're selling to China.

However, what it will do is get some revenue back for Nvidia, which to me means this is an upside.

I mean, we already know that Nvidia is basically guiding for $500 billion of revenue, uh, which they're likely going to beat over the next five quarters without China and realistically without the Middle East.

I mean, they're just factoring in the Middle East into all these projections.

Nvidia, right? They're up about point4%.

If they get any bit from China, you know, even if it's a couple billion, a couple billion on revenue numbers that are not going to be easy to beat next year, at least from my perspective, it's going to be a beat.

It might not be a beat and raise to the magnitude that we've seen over the past couple quarters.

I mean, last quarter they beat by four billion.

Maybe they beat by a billion.

If they can get that extra two billion every quarter, maybe eight billion for the year, you know, that helps them continue to beat.

So that I think is a net net positive for Nvidia, but the street's going to have to really see if China is going to be willing to sell as much as they want to sell or buy as much as they want to buy from Nvidia.

So I think it's net positive.

It's good for AMD as well, good for Intel.

Trump said this would apply to both of those companies as well.

AMD and Intel up a little bit in the pre-markets, but we're going to need to see how much this actually affects Nvidia's broader earnings.

Trump will be delivering a speech around the economy at 6 p.m. tonight in Pennsylvania.

So, you're going to see a speech probably.

He's going to be talking about affordability, going to be talking about the state of the economy, going to be talking about everything that's going on in the world of probably, you know, the US stock market tariffs.

I mean, he's been going off on tariffs.

You know, we've been talking about these ideas that the Supreme Court is going to reverse the tariffs.

Trump has been tweeting over the past 48 hours that basically it's very likely the Supreme Court is going to reverse the Trump tariffs and he's, you know, arguing to the American people how bad this would be for national security even though the administration has some plans to be able to navigate the tariff situation even if they lose the Supreme Court case.

But he's kind of getting the American people ready or at least his base ready to understand that the tariffs are a victory even if we don't have access to them because of the Supreme Court.

And you're going to see a lot more of those arguments over the coming over the coming weeks from the administration.

Jose says they really need the chips all cap from them. Yeah.

The thing about the Chinese as well is that you know even what we've seen from Huawei, we haven't seen a level of chip architecture from the Chinese companies that is still as good as even Nvidia's worst chips.

I mean some of them compare I mean even some of them compared to to what Nvidia has been creating but not at a substantial level.

Even deepseek people forget deepseek which created that whole dip opportunity on video when it fell 50%. Was trained on 50,000 H100s wasn't trained on Huawei chips.

So I do think the Chinese are kind of bluffing right here.

They would love to have access to these chips but they don't want to seem like okay fine you give us your B chip.

And so everyone's obviously going to know that Chinese models are going to potentially be less powerful than US models if US companies have access to Black Bull and Reuben.

China would probably rather not even want those chips, but I think they still want the chips.

Perceptually, they don't want the chips, but realistically, they want the chips.

So, we're going to see how the market thinks of it.

Overall, I think it's net net bullish that um Nvidia is going to be getting these sales to China.

Nvidia right there 18648 right here in the pre-market.

Yeah, a little bit of 5D chess being played from the from the Chinese.

So, that's what you got on video.

We'll see when the market opens how that plays out, but that's kind of one of the main updates and we're going to see if we can get back to that 190 range.

Warner Brothers, let's talk about that.

Up 1.32% in the pre-markets.

This story has just been absolutely crazy.

I'm sure if you follow finance media in general or even technology media, everyone is talking about this.

And you know, quite frankly, I think everyone's talking about this simply because it's going to affect the media landscape at a broad broad scale.

First, let's just listen to what the CEO of Paramount, David Ellison, who is Larry Ellison's son, said yesterday about Warner Brothers.

They started initiating a hostile bid for the company.

Just like you have insiders and active investors engage in hostile takeovers, you can also have companies engage in hostile bids, which is, hey, if you've already agreed to sell your company, we are going to outbid you.

go direct to the shareholders and let them decide as if our offer is better than your offer and the company which has a fiduciary responsibility to evaluate every offer has to take it seriously if the offer is net better.

Our offer is $30 a share, all cash, $41 billion in equity that's backs stopped by the Ellison family and Redbird.

$54 billion in debt with commitments from City, Bank of America, and Apollo.

We have faster regulatory certainty to close.

And our deal is proconsumer. It's procreative talent. It's it's it's pro competition.

And we believe that when you actually to further contextualize the R $30 in cash or sorry $30 a share is is basically $17.6 billion in cash more than the $20 $23 a share that they signed up. Right.

Well, you're not obviously pay you're you're paying for global networks.

Their deal doesn't involve paying for global networks which are traded as public company which by the way also figures very prominently here and in trying to determine what the overall value of the respected deals are.

Um because there are 2775 including obviously the c the stock portion of their deal but it also includes well what's global networks is it a $2 stock is it a$ four dollar stock what do you see because that can go a long way in terms of at least determining why the board may have said no we think Netflix is superior

>> so so respectfully we think that basically that's valued at a dollar a share I think if you

>> why a dollar

>> so if if you look at vers where the median of all of this is it's about four and a half times you you have to get to five times equity value or for to basically get to the, you know, kind of $3 plus that you're claiming.

But again, I think the most important thing to go back here is look, we're sitting on Wall Street where cash is still king.

We are offering shareholders 17.6 billion more cash than the deal they currently have signed up with Netflix.

And we believe when they see what is currently in our offer that that's what they'll vote for.

So he's right about that. uh they are offering more cash than what Netflix is offering.

And although the offer is similar to the offer they made a week ago that got rejected, that offer wasn't a tender offer for all cash.

And I think that's kind of one of the unique differences for why they're they're going straight to the shareholders and making the argument that they're making.

Now, if if anyone knows anything about Larry Ellison, he is what some people would call the king of hostile takeovers.

As you can see right here, since 2003, this guy has rapidly made sure that he would engage in either an aggressive pursuit, aggressive negotiation, or a hostile bid to be able to get what he wants.

He is the I think fourth richest person on the planet, $270 billion net worth.

I mean, he wants to win, and it doesn't seem like he's easily going to lose.

Now, the the the the other reason this story is becoming so interesting to people is because, well, two things.

Number one, uh Netflix already signed the deal, right?

So they already signed the deal for 72 billion. That deal or 82 billion.

That deal doesn't include the TV networks.

And so yes, as as Prunifi is saying right here, Paramount wants to buy Discovery.

They're offering more, but they're buying more, but they also want to take off the cable networks from Warner Brothers Discovery.

So that the sort of new spin company that will go public in an own independent way, which that company's probably not going to succeed in the public markets.

I mean, let's be honest, us that's linear TV.

Like, that stock's not going to get bit up.

So, I think Paramount's argument is just like, hey, we already have the existing infrastructure.

Why don't we just bring everything inside our house and keep it going from there?

Netflix's argument is like, we just want the studios and we think that we are paying an appropriate price for the studios and, you know, we are probably better people to sell to versus the Elson family.

And I think there's a world in which Warner Brothers is saying, "Yeah, we'd rather sell to the 400 billion behemoth that is Netflix versus the Ellison family."

The bigger question is why does the Ellison family want this so much?

And that's where you get into the political angle of everything, which is where Trump comes in.

So, multiple conversations over the past 48 hours, multiple leak texts, multiple memos have come out basically saying, this is from the Trump uh part of the administration, which is that he does not want CNN to be in control in the way that it's currently in control.

Trump has had beef with CNN for a very long time.

And again, Netflix won't have control of CNN because it'll be some new independent company.

But the idea of Larry having control of CNN, I mean, that wouldn't be the worst in the world.

That would probably be very exciting for someone like Trump given that he knows that Larry Ellison would likely be on his side of the aisle more so than uh if someone else owned it.

By the way, these are the text messages from David Ellison to David Zazlov, CEO of Warner Brothers.

Uh he texted him right before the deal.

Just tried calling you about the new bid.

We've heard all your concerns.

We believe we've addressed them.

And then at 4 p.m. Didn't get a text for hours.

He sent him this paragraph.

You know, you know when you like double text, it's like, "Dude, she's just not into you."

Yeah, this this is what happened here.

He double texted and still they did not get a response.

And then the next day you get a Netflix acquisition that is reported and then David Ellison realizes he just needs to go straight to the people and make his bid more public.

So multiple parts of the administration are saying that Trump would like CNN to be controlled in a in a way that's a bit more friendly.

Uh now Trump has come out and says that Paramount is not my friend. Netflix is not my friend.

He's trying to stay objective.

He even said the other day that he was annoyed that CBS, which is owned by Paramount, uh had a 60-minute special with Marie Marjgery Taylor Green, which Trump is not a fan of.

So, like, you know, he was showing some level of discontent for for what uh Paramount has been doing with their programming.

But nonetheless, I think a lot of this is going to Oh,

and then we got the big report last night from the Wall Street Journal that uh Larry Ellson did indeed call Trump after the acquisition was announced with Netflix and basically said, "Hey, if you do this, this is going to be horrible for competition."

I honestly, if you had to ask me which way does this get resolved, I have no idea.

Uh the the prediction markets are leaning towards Poly Market uh or not Poly Market, uh Paramount.

Poly Market is saying that Paramount's most likely going to win this.

They have I think like a 45% chance.

And I think our boy Joseph Carlson had a great tweet on this right here that makes the argument for why it would actually be more monopolistic if Paramount wins this.

Larry Ellson and his son will control Tik Tok with Oracle, Warner Brothers Studios, Paramount Pictures, CBS, CNN, all of HBO and Paramount Plus.

They would also control most of every major cable channel, which HBO and and Discovery own like a good 150 of them.

And they would have distribution that is possibly even greater than Disney.

I mean, at the end of the day, Netflix does not have that type of distribution.

They have more subscribers, but they definitely don't have that type of distribution.

One could argue it would make a massive behemoth just than Warner Brothers or Paramount in and of itself if that got acquired.

Now, the bare case for Netflix is that if a Netflix acquired them, you have this massive level of intellectual property like DC, Batman, Harry Potter, etc. going over to Netflix and Netflix, which accounts for, I think, 7.2% 2% of TV time.

YouTube's at like 12%.

You know, maybe that would allow them to compete with YouTube.

So, I really am not sure how this is going to play out.

I think the question for all of us as investors want to know, how do we take advantage of this?

First of all, I don't know if Warner Brothers is the best buy right here because here's the worst case scenario.

If you're playing the arbitrage on Warner Brothers stock, which look, I think some deal is going to happen because it's Warner Brothers and I don't think Trump wants to completely stop any type of merger.

But what if the FTC just blocks it completely?

What if they're like, "Hey, Netflix can't buy it and Paramount can't buy it because we want to keep more competition involved."

And honestly, the best way to keep competition is for a merger to not happen.

Like, because then you have HBO Max, you have Netflix, you have Amazon Prime, you have Disney Plus.

You actually have like a real uh level of of competition in the streaming wars.

Um, and this stock probably drops back to $12, right?

There's no reason for the stock to be anywhere near this price if there's not an acquisition happening.

So, that right there would be not the best if you're holding on to it.

If it does happen for Paramount, I think Netflix probably goes up because shareholders aren't the happiest that Netflix is wants to spend $82 billion and Netflix will survive even without this acquisition.

So, I think the stock will be okay.

If it does go for Netflix, what if this thing drops dramatically because shareholders are just not confident about what Netflix is going to be able to make this play out or how Netflix is going to be able to make this play out.

So, I don't know.

I'm sitting out of this.

I mean, I've been thinking about Netflix more deeply given everything that's been playing out, but I think the regulatory scrutiny on this is going to take time.

Even even if it doesn't take time, let's say Netflix does get to buy them, this thing's not rocketing up to 150 anytime soon.

I mean, this thing is going to take some time to really play out, I think there's going to need to be a lot of inner workings to show to the street that this acquisition makes sense.

Whether it's for Paramount or I'm definitely not buying Paramount stock.

That stock has been a disaster for a long time.

So, I mean, realistically, the question is, do you buy Netflix or not?

And I think even if it plays out, you give this thing time.

You give this thing time. You see if Netflix can meaningfully make this accretive to shareholders and the perception of having all of that content super is super super bullish, but that doesn't mean it's necessarily going to work on day one or even in year one.

And so I think kind of being on the sidelines here is not that crazy.

I don't know if Netflix is the opportunity of a lifetime right here on this Warner Brothers deal.

But if it doesn't happen, I think there's a better chance that Netflix goes up in the short term.

In the long term, I do think they need to get a deal like this because ultimately like Netflix needs better content and this is a once in a-lifetime opportunity to be to be able to get that content.

Yeah. Netflix wants IP and Ellison wants media control.

I I I didn't realize Larry Ellison is on this whole media like uh power narrative that he's been going on.

I mean, like I know the guy's powerful. I know the guy has influence, but like the Ellison family is which which by the way the entire bid is backed by the Ellison family.

So like David Ellison's like hey like we are back stop Netflix like we're backstopping it with our equity which is worth 400 billion and Larry Ellison's like well I'm worth half of what Netflix is worth myself.

I'm going to personally backs stop this deal.

So I guess they want to control a lot more of the media landscape and they're going to really fight hard for this.

Hopefully consumers end up winning at the end of the day.

This story is not over and it looks like the story is going to be playing out for a long long time to see uh see who ends up winning.

Yeah, Kushner is also in it as well.

The Saudis are in it on Paramount.

I mean, you've got all these different characters that are now entering the mix.

It's like, dude, who would have thought by the end of the year one of the hottest media stories would be Netflix versus Paramount.

Like, I did not have that on my bingo list.

But there you go.

And that's what's happening.

And we're going to see ultimately how the street thinks of it.

Netflix, right? They're up a little bit in the pre-market.

Warner Brothers up 1%, S&P 500 is flat, down about 10%.

Uh, quick update on Grab.

So, uh, we got an update right here from Benchmark.

They reiterated their $7 price target.

I think there's two things to talk about on Grab.

Number one, uh, and this is I honestly didn't think of this for the past couple of weeks, but this also probably explains why Grab has been selling off.

Um, C Limited, C Limited is down about 30% over the past month.

I'm not even sure why I haven't analyzed C Limited as aggressively as I probably should given it's another Southeast Asian rival, but that stock has been hit.

And so, when you have a major competitor that's has way better margins than Grab and it's growing faster than Grab, you know, when that drops 30%, you're going to have its rivals also probably drop with it.

So, I think that's one of the reasons it's been hit.

Benchmark said this morning, "We recently hosted the Grab IR team for a virtual investor meeting.

The company is targeting sustained growth across its core segments, deliveries, and mobilities while maintaining stable incentive levels.

Its fintech business's position for accelerated loan book expansion has a clear path to profitability.

Um, the reason their share prices pulled back in recent months is largely due to profit taking and high beta outperformers, which you know, Grab did get to 650. It was up almost 50% for the year.

The company's characteristically conservative guidance, which the market had anticipated.

Nevertheless, we believe fiscal year 2026 setup remains favorable.

RAP continues to leverage affordability initiatives.

In our view, the recent share price weakness represents an attractive entry point for investors seeking compelling opportunities for an emerging markets portfolio going into fiscal year 2026.

So, I mean, look, I understand that people hate the price action.

I get it.

It's not fun having that as a heavy part of my portfolio.

Trust me, if I have taken the money I put in Grab in the beginning of the year and I put it into like even Nvidia or anything else, you know, it probably would have generated even better year-to- date returns for me.

But at the end of the day, I believe the stock is still undervalued and I cannot fully control the price action.

I think at this point at $511, it is stupid trading at these levels.

I don't have the explanation for why outside of maybe the correlation with C Limited going down.

But I've done the valuation work and I think a lot of us have done the valuation work.

Stock is cheap.

question is what changes the narrative?

Obviously got the go-to thing that's probably going to resolve itself towards the end of the year and we're going to see how that acquisition changes how the company's thinking of it.

But the volume over the past couple days has also been around 40 million shares.

You know, volume was dying out a couple weeks ago, volume has started to come back.

Stock price has just been not cooperating.

So, it's one of those dog days for the stock where, you know, with Hood down for two years at six, seven bucks.

Same thing with Pounder.

Not saying grab his hood or pound pouncer, but you do have these periods where it's stuck and you don't know why it's stuck, but you do know everything is going up and to the right.

You're waiting for the stock price to reflect that.

If you don't want to wait for that, then there's plenty of other volatile names that are out there that, you know, probably have quicker price action.

But with Grab, I continue to hold it.

And if we fall below five, I will continue to add more.

I already have a pretty heavy position, but if this thing really ends up getting lower, then I likely will be adding more.

But yeah, all the analysts continue to believe $7 is the price target.

You have some of the most bullish analysts at around $8.

I think closer fair value is around 720 730 right now and we're going to see how this ends up playing out as we get into the end of the year.

Uh Whimo news, super bullish for Google.

Now Google went down yesterday.

Not sure why they deserve to go down.

We'll talk about, you know, exactly the headline that caused it, but take a look at this.

Whimo is now providing over 450,000 paid robo taxi rides per week.

That's up from 250,000 per week just 7 months ago.

I mean, this is absolutely incredible.

I I feel like we don't talk about Whimo enough.

We know, you know, Tesla ro.

By the way, I did download uh 14.2 on um on my Tesla and it's amazing.

I've had it for about a week now. Absolutely amazing.

Like I I there is a noticeable difference between 14.2 and 13.9.

And so, you know, I'm loving FSD on my Tesla, but Tesla is obviously not having 450,000 paid robo taxi rides per week.

Now, once they end up scaling it and you have millions of Teslas functioning as the fleet of robot taxes, kind of that whole broader FSD thesis, then, you know, maybe 450,000 is going to be a nothing burner in the coming years.

But right now, Whimo's crushing it and uh they've added multiple new cities over the past week.

San Francisco, Los Angeles, Phoenix, Austin, and Atlanta is where they have 200 vehicles that are doing the 450,000 paid robo taxi rides every single week.

So, why was Google down yesterday?

Well, there are reports that Gemini is getting ready to incorporate advertising in 2026.

Google came out and they kind of denied it, even though, you know, we know that ads are eventually coming to Gemini.

And Google right there was down about 2% yesterday, down another 1% in the pre-markets.

I think this is the dumbest reason for Google to sell off.

I think this is a fake reason.

Google is selling off because it's up 80% for the year and people are taking profits, not because they're going to incorporate ads into Gemini.

Because quite frankly, if they incorporate ads into Gemini, um, that's going to be good for Google.

They have 650 million monthly active users on Gemini.

If they start showing you ads, they're going to start monetizing that.

So, I don't see how this is bearish unless the street thinks people will stop using Gemini because of the advertising, which is kind of stupid to me.

So, I think people are selling Google because they need to take profits.

And like that's fair.

If Google closes below 300 and, you know, it closes the year at 295, okay, Google will be up 63% instead of 84%.

Like, it's just not something that I think people should be too concerned over.

Probably creates a better buying opportunity.

You know, now you've got Buffett on your side.

Google's still up 77% year to date.

But it does seem like the profit taking is the bigger reason for the sell-off, not necessarily the potential in advertising.

Now, the Wall Street Journal came out with an article about uh Sam Alman and this code red on OpenAI.

I read the whole article this morning.

Um it does seem based on the leaked memos from Sam Alman to the company which somehow keep getting leaked, you got some people in OpenAI that are constantly leaking these memos.

We'll talk about the European Union lawsuits because they are starting to tax these American tech companies at a at a heavier rate.

Um Sam Alman basically said we need to stop working on Sora which is their video generation model. We need to stop working on enterprise.

We need to just make chat GPT better.

And so the crux of his memo to uh the team was that if we make GPT better we will have a chance to increase all the other parts of the business.

But the only way we increase the other parts of the business is by focusing on GPT which by the way I kind of think is the right way to I mean GPT ever since I subscribed to it a couple weeks ago.

Uh I'm now paying that $20 a month.

It's become my go-to.

I've like stopped using Grock.

I'm sorry, but Grock is not good.

I love Elon.

I pay the freaking $50 a month for X.

Like, it's it's not good. It's just not It's not It's not as good as Chachi.

So, I think if they focus on continuing to grow that that is going to be a massive massive tailwind for them.

The question is, can they continue to focus on just the consumer side of the business and be able to scale to the point where they can spend the 1.4 4 trillion that they've guided that they're going to spend in terms of capex and grow as fast as they need to grow?

I don't know.

I the model's good, but there's plenty of people that might like Grock because they have a different use case or might use claw on a daily basis and they don't care that much about GPT.

So Sam Alman's vision is kind of, hey, we're going to keep growing this and make it the best model.

You know, they already have 800 million monthly active users.

Can they get to that billion and is that billion going to be enough?

And then you got this report from Meta.

Meta is reportedly preparing a new proprietary AI model codenamed Avocado for Q1 2026 positioned as the successor to its open source Llama.

I think Meta has to do this.

Quite frankly, if you're long meta, you you know, you can't, I think, just rely on the advertising business.

You have to be wondering what they're doing with their capex.

And their capex has to be having some type of AI product.

In this case, it's probably a new model.

And whatever avocado looks like, whether it's for enterprise adoption, whether for it's it's it's a follow-up to their series of llamas for the consumer use cases in Meta AI, it's got to be something that gets people excited.

The problem is it just continues to create competition through GPT.

And so I think OpenAI is in a pretty precarious position right here because obviously Google has way way more distribution.

Google is crushing it with Gemini 3.

Nano Banana is off the charts.

GPT is still, I think, one of the better models.

5.2 likely is coming out early 2026, but the fact that they've stopped focusing on all the other business initiatives just to make the model better.

By the way, there was a lot of researchers who again anonymously told the Wall Street Journal that um Sam Alman is sacrificing safety for growth because a lot of the things that they felt were unsafe with the mental health portions of the model, they feel they fixed.

In fact, Sam Alman was on the uh Jimmy Fallon show last night.

It was one of the most awkward conversations.

I mean, again, like the guy is a bit weird when it comes to these public interviews, but um like he's sacrificing what Daario, who created Anthropic, who used to work at OpenAI, really cared about, which is safety for user growth.

And the question is, is it going to work?

And is it going to be the best investment that Open AAI can make going into the future?

Google doesn't really need to sacrifice all those types of things because Google has a lot of money, a lot of distribution, and a lot of time to be able to work on the parts of the business that don't need to make money.

Like Gemini doesn't need to make a single penny for them because they've got the search business.

Whereas GPG needs to generate revenue today.

Otherwise, a lot of these investors like SoftBank putting in 40 billion are not going to be happy in the next coming years.

So, we're going to see, but more and more competition is good for consumers, and ultimately, we're going to have to keep up with OpenAI and see if they can actually commit to the spending that they've said they can commit to.

And that relies on the models growing as fast as uh as fast as they need to grow.

Yeah, Avocado is the new meta model that uh well, it's the code name for the meta model that will be announced probably early in Q1 of 2026.

as per meta the the description is it's a frontier AI model codenamed avocado

and it doesn't look like it's going to be a uh open source model because llama as an open source architecture kind of failed seems like closed source is the way for people to actually make money

I don't know why they called it avocado but yeah it looks like that is the new the new model that they have

uh jobs so private employers added 4750 50 jobs weekly in November.

The street expected a loss of 13,000 jobs. Came into an increase of 4,750 jobs.

We'll talk more about what we've got with rate cuts coming up uh tomorrow. There's an 89.4% chance now of us getting this rate cut.

I think this jobs data is minuscule. It's not going to be enough to take away from the rate cut.

You know, you've got some people like Rick Reer from Black Rockck saying that we should be doing 50 bips tomorrow.

You've got a lot more of the doves coming out just based on some of the labor market data that they're seeing.

I think we'll get 25.

I doubt we're going to get 50.

But the idea that we don't get any rate cut is likely not going to happen.

So question is if it's priced in, and we'll talk more about if that ends up being priced in.

But I do think there's a shot for the market to rip tomorrow if they feel the rate cut is a meaningful differentiator going into into the end of the year.

Here's Mike Wilson and his thoughts on what he's thinking for where the rate cut takes us by the end of December.

Mike Wilson: data now is that the rate of change on both payrolls and layoffs peaked or bottom depending on which one you're looking at in April, right when the market bottom.

So, and this narrative that we've had for a while now is becoming a bit more popular.

We like that that other people are kind of adopting it to some degree because they're looking for a rationale or reason for why the market's done when it's done.

And that is very important for next year because a it means the Fed has more room to cut than probably people think, okay?

Or they can do things with the balance sheet. And secondly, you're going to get a rotation now into the parts of the market that have not performed that well.

That's our call for 2026.

>> Why would uh the labor market not being weak give the Fed more opportunity?

>> Well, because they're going to realize that their the data itself is very lagged.

I'm not blaming the Fed.

This is tricky.

I mean, it's hard in real time.

The data has not been weak enough to justify cutting more.

But when they actually look at the revisions now, and that's what we do. We look at the revisions, it pretty much clear, it's very clear that we had a significant labor.

>> We already came out of it

>> and we've come out of it, which is very good.

And by the way, the best confirmation of this is that the earnings growth now for the median company in the S&P is actually growing again close to 10%.

That's the best growth we've seen in four years.

So there's evidence,

>> but you are counting on the labor data still being lagged for why the the Fed will cut rates that they're not going to pay attention to the things you're watching right now.

>> That's right.

Well, I think what they'll notice is that if you want a recovery in the private economy, which we all do, right?

We don't want to just have this bifurcated economy.

They they'll realize that we need we do need rate cuts for the financial leverage part of the economy, whether it's housing, you know, consumer goods, the lower-end consumer, we need that.

And so the risk in this strategy, of course, for the Fed to think about is do we have an asset bubble then, right?

Because if they cut into that good earning cycle, do we get kind of an inflated stock market?

Our view is yes

>> asset inflation and people are still worried about big inflation the the uh the overall term inflation people are still we're 3%.

>> The lagging numbers there it would indicate what in in your view that it's not a problem or it is a

>> well I mean it's sort of a sort of a feature okay quite frankly like in other words if and we said this last time I mean if we don't get inflation next year reacelerating then our call is going to be wrong.

In other words, and accelerating inflation is good for company earnings in most for the companies that have been lagging it, but it's bad if the Fed is is raising rates for the stock market.

This time around, right, we have a Fed that's not going to be raising rates.

I don't know how much they're going to cut next year, but it's unlikely they're raising rates and they're probably going to add liquidity to the balance sheet at a time when when ex when accelerating inflation is driving better earnings growth.

That's a very good setup for equities typically.

>> And you know what else?

Hasset was on yesterday and he said the the way we administration handles the affordability issue is by wage gains.

They they I think they've given prices you know energy prices can come down, food prices can come down but in general inflation doesn't come down unless you got serious uh overall problems uh in the economy.

So how do you deal with affordability?

Wage growth has to be faster than than the inflation

>> and productivity

>> and productivity.

And you think that's possible?

>> Well, yeah.

I mean that's what the the policy change is trying to do right is that

>> which policy the big BBB

>> all of the fiscal policy let's think about this so they're trying to reduce consumption okay increase investment through the big beautiful bill and through tariffs that reconfiguration of how the economy grows should lead to better productivity the big one that there's debate on which I don't think is really that debatable is immigration right so this you know legal immigration unfettered immigration has really suppressed real wage growth to your point for the middle income for the lower income workers And then if you think about AI suppressing wage growth perhaps at the upper end that that's a nice rebalancing potentially on the on the real wage.

Mike Wilson: all of the fiscal policy let's think about this so they're trying to reduce consumption okay increase investment through the big beautiful bill and through tariffs that reconfiguration of how the economy grows should lead to better productivity the big one that there's debate on which I don't think is really that debatable is immigration right so this you know legal immigration unfettered immigration has really suppressed real wage growth to your point for the middle income for the lower income workers And then if you think about AI suppressing wage growth perhaps at the upper end that that's a nice rebalancing potentially on the on the real wage.

Mike Wilson: all of the fiscal policy let's think about this so they're trying to reduce consumption okay increase investment through the big beautiful bill and through tariffs that reconfiguration of how the economy grows should lead to better productivity the big one that there's debate on which I don't think is really that debatable is immigration right so this you know legal immigration unfettered immigration has really suppressed real wage growth to your point for the middle income for the lower income workers And then if you think about AI suppressing wage growth perhaps at the upper end that that's a nice rebalancing potentially on the on the real wage.

Mike Wilson: all of the fiscal policy let's think about this so they're trying to reduce consumption okay increase investment through the big beautiful bill and through tariffs that reconfiguration of how the economy grows should lead to better productivity the big one that there's debate on which I don't think is really that debatable is immigration right so this you know legal immigration unfettered immigration has really suppressed real wage growth to your point for the middle income for the lower income workers And then if you think about AI suppressing wage growth perhaps at the upper end that that's a nice rebalancing potentially on the on the real wage.

Mike Wilson: all of the fiscal policy let's think about this so they're trying to reduce consumption okay increase investment through the big beautiful bill and through tariffs that reconfiguration of how the economy grows should lead to better productivity the big one that there's debate on which I don't think is really that debatable is immigration right so this you know legal immigration unfettered immigration has really suppressed real wage growth to your point for the middle income for the lower income workers And then if you think about AI suppressing wage growth perhaps at the upper end that that's a nice rebalancing potentially on the on the real wage.

Look this is this is not a for I mean it's not going to guarantee it's going to work but I like that strategy as a way to rebalance decay economy.

And quite frankly I don't know what other strategy we have.

I mean, Mike Wilson is talking about how the one big beautiful bill essentially said, "We're going to decrease or incentivize the decrease of consumption and increase or incentivize the increase of investment,

which is exactly what we've been seeing across these tech companies that have been investing in capex.

We know that 50% of GDP since 2023 has been because of big tech capex investments.

If that didn't happen, we would not have the market that we have today.

We would not be growing the way that we're growing.

It continues today with Microsoft $17.5 billion investment in India particularly on sovereign AI and AI infrastructure.

I mean I I think this is just going to continue.

You're going to see a lot more of these tech companies say that we need to continue investing across the entire world simply because a this is the opportunity of lifetime with AI. B the one big beautiful bill is creating the incentive for them to continue investing and not stop in any meaningful way.

On top of that, you know, the other thing that we're seeing from from these tech companies is the continued focus on where their margins can enhance.

Ed Yardani came out yesterday.

I really was surprised by his take.

He's been analyzing the stock market for like 40 years now.

He said go underweight the MAG 7 for 2026.

And my gut reaction is I disagree.

I I was very surprised that he said that.

I think the reason he came out and said that was well there's two reasons.

the s the the the the more obvious reason is that the Max 7 have run too much in that you you know you need a new idea and that new idea uh likely will outperform the Max 7 although Amazon's up like 1% year to date.

So I'm like you know meta barely up now after the fall like I still think the rich get richer in that thesis is is is very intact.

The more cynical reason why I think he came out and said that quite frankly is just for attention.

I mean, you know, when you're an analyst, you need new ideas to to get people to get excited about you.

And Ed Yardani is someone I respect very deeply.

So, it left me wondering.

It's like, dude, you've been bullish these names for the past seven years now.

2026 is the year to get bearish when we're about to see the ROI from all their capex.

I mean, like, why else would you come out with this take that says, "Oh, go underweight the MAG 7 and go long the S&P 493."

It's like we know the S&P 4 and 93 don't have the balance sheets, don't have the buybacks, don't have the net income, don't have the free cash flow, they don't have anything that the MAX 7 have.

They're good companies, but they're not the MAX 7.

So, it was just very, very weird that you had some prominent people coming out.

And I think because of his influence in the investing community, you're going to get a lot of people just like you had at the end of 2024 say the next year's trade will not be the MAG7 because they're looking, you know, last year was small caps, which small caps have done well, but you know, the MAG7 haven't done horrible this year.

Um, especially if you bought at the April lows.

And so I I think you're going to get a lot more people trying to look for that new idea.

I continue to believe the best idea is still the Mac 7.

And I reserve the right to change that opinion as we get towards the end of the year.

trying to look deep into Ed's thesis and see is there something really serious that he's talking about that should concern people around the Mac 7.

But every time you actually take that argument seriously, you just go back to the fact that it's the Mac 7 and it looks like they're not going to be slowing down anytime soon.

All right, we got 10 seconds until the market opens.

Last thing before we open up the markets, this is our president on how the economy is doing in the United States of America.

>> Pretty good.

But I do want to talk about the economy, sir, here at home.

And and I I wonder what grade you would give a economy.

>> A+ A+ plus.

>> Well, it's interesting.

>> Pretty good.

All right. The stock market, thank you everybody for being here, is now open.

with an A++ plus bell as we are back for the market open.

Thank you everybody for being here and again I'm sorry for missing it yesterday.

Thank you everyone who reached out with all the messages to get well better.

Really really meant a lot.

Um happy to be back and happy to open up this market.

All right let's get into it.

Nvidia 18497 that's down about 31% on the day.

Nvidia got some good news after hours yesterday.

Markets really not giving it any what premium got up to 190 after hours but still getting hit.

Grab 2% down.

I really think this is stupid.

508.

But that's down 1.45%.

I do think the shorts are more in control of the stock now as well as the stock is getting hit and it's basically been getting hit for the past month.

The Q's are down about 0.27%.

Nebi is down 3% right here.

INE still down about 2% on the day.

Rocket Lab Rocket Lab breaking 50 yesterday was really important.

We had an update this morning on Rocket Lab uh around their hungry hippo initiative which ended up getting them clearer a much clearer path to the neutron launch.

So we'll talk more about that in a second, but that was the update this morning and that's why that stock got a little bit of a boost in the pre-market.

Carvana, which is now in the S&P 500, that's down about 1.5%.

This is outperforming all of the Max 7.

Speaking of names that are outperforming the Max 7, Carvana has outperformed all of them by two to 10x over the past 5 years.

So that name has just been pretty incredible.

Dualingo right there. Wow, back above 200.

I didn't even see that yesterday.

Okay, so Dolingo hit 210 right now at 203.

BMR 3474 that's down 3%.

Pouncer did hit 184 that's down to 180.

Is Meta getting hit?

Meta is getting hit down 1%.

Hit 675 yesterday.

Not sure why it's down 1% right here.

They came out with that news about the Frontier model or at least Bloomberg is reporting a Frontier model potentially by Meta.

Not sure why that's bearish, but the street doesn't like it.

Nvidia still down about 1%.

S&P down 0.08.

SoFi down 1.3.

SoFi, unfortunately, did not make the S&P 500.

Next year, most likely will happen for SoFi and Reddit, but this year was not the chance for it.

Red right there, 232, that's down about 1.3%.

Amazon as well, just like Grab, I think some of the price action on this stuff is really, really ridiculous.

I think there's no reason for Amazon to be trading at these levels. I really don't.

And uh sometimes buying up the beatup names going into next year, you know, is the way that you get some more asymmetric returns.

Even though it sucks to buy them in the short term, Amazon should not be at $225 after those earnings.

But nonetheless, that one's getting hit from 260 last week or or two weeks ago.

Nebia's right. They're at 9750. That's still down 2.8.

Robin Hood 134.

If we hold up the 130s, I will be very happy to end the year.

Robin Hood is entering Indonesia as they've acquired a new brokerage, which I think is super super bullish.

They're not entering Singapore towards the end of the year.

You know, they said in the beginning of the year they would be entering Singapore.

I guess whatever deal they had for Singapore didn't go through, but they are still expanding globally.

That was the one thing I didn't know if Vlad would actually be able to get done by the end of 2025.

And it looks like they are making that happen.

Singapore is not happening, but Indonesia will be happening as they acquired a brokerage going into the end of 2025.

So, it seems like they're going to get another 20 million customers going into 2026.

Pounder right there at 180 BitMine at 34.84.

Where is Oscar?

Oscar's at 1683.

That one's actually up a little bit on the day.

Most stocks are red.

Insurance names are getting a little bit of safety today.

Amcor at 4550 yesterday.

Amcor back at 44.

Even holding the 40s, I think, is incredible for Amcort.

Tesla also holding the 430s.

It's pretty cool.

This was at 450 last week.

Eli Liy's up.

ELF is up a little bit.

GM and Ford are up.

Microsoft trying to get back up to 490, which is nice.

This was at 465 last week after that report from the information.

Applovin, look at that.

Trying to get back up to 700o.

is not too horrible.

Rubric uh did have amazing earnings.

If you bought this thing back at 70, you've done very well.

90.41.

Adobe's been having a hell of a week.

Uh tomorrow is going to be very important for their earnings.

Same thing with Oracle, which is now at 220.

Oracle got all the way to 185.

I feel like Oracle is going to pop on earnings because they're going to increase their RPO estimates and it's going to have nothing to do with OpenAI and they're just going to show increased cloud computing demand from another AI model that's paying them.

maybe anthropic, but I don't know if it's enough to take an earnings play on Oracle just given the fear of of of their debt.

That's definitely getting people a bit more scared about their their spending commitments.

Cipher right there, that's up 1.2%.

Terowolf's up a little bit.

Big Bear is down about 1.4.

Uh the Quantum names have had a pretty good recovery.

D-Wave was almost I think below like $18 two weeks ago. Now back to 27.

So that one's down 2% on the day, but still green um over the past week.

And then Walmart is replacing their CEO.

That stock 11363 basically at an all-time high.

$95 billion market cap on Walmart.

116 was the alltime high.

So they're trading just below that at 113 on the day.

Uh over Kaser says, "I'm Indonesian.

Hood. We'll be getting a lot of money here through crypto.

A lot of Indian Indonesian people trade crypto."

Yeah, Indonesia's population is greater than the United States, which is crazy.

And crypto in Southeast Asia, especially in Indonesia, from some of the research I did over the weekend when this was announced on Sunday night, is a big deal.

And you can understand why, right?

Local currencies are not necessarily the easiest to trade, definitely not the easiest to transact different uh business deals in.

And so crypto ends up becoming a an alternative.

So I think from that perspective, it makes a lot of sense for Hood to go to Indonesia.

And they're going to be capturing 19 million customers as per the the brokerage that they acquired.

This should be adding a lot more to the overall assets under custody.

Meta getting hit right here.

Down 2%.

657 on Meta.

Oh, you're right.

Indonesia's 280 million.

Yeah. Yeah, you're right.

America's 330.

I thought Indonesia was 350 million.

Yeah, you're right.

280 million.

Um, still rivaling the size. 283 million in Indonesia. United States at 330.

I mean, rivaling the size of the United States. So, I think it's a mass mass market that Robinood is meaningfully going after.

I'm just happy they followed through with their international commitments by the end of the year.

So, I didn't think they were going to just because they've been working on so many different, you know, companies say stuff, but sometimes they don't follow through on it.

Uh, and I wouldn't have given them any flak if they didn't because they've done so much this year.

The fact that they actually came through at the end of December and said, "Nope, we are still expanding internationally I thought was pretty impressive."

S&P going green slightly on the day 68360.

Google at 312, that's down about.3%.

Reddit's still down 1.4.

Netflix getting a little bit little bit of green basically flat at 9670.

Where's Bitcoin?

I haven't looked at Bitcoin honestly for like the past two days.

90. Okay.

I'd uh I'd rather it be 90 than back in the low 80s.

It peaked at 93 I think last Friday.

90,500 on Bitcoin.

Galaxy did get a $60 price target by our boy Devin Ryan.

I didn't expect that.

Uh Devin Ryan is an analyst I have a lot of respect for.

I didn't read his report yet.

I have his report.

I have to go through it.

But 60 bucks, I guess his uh AI HBC choice out of all the Bitcoin miners was Galaxy.

So Galaxy right there up 3.12% with a $60 target from Mr. Mr. Devon Ryan.

Does Hood need legislation in Indonesia for crypto sales?

Honestly, I have no idea.

I I I've not gone through the acquisition in such depth, but I'm sure whatever legislation or, you know, regulations they need to get done, they probably thought about it for a long time.

I just think getting the international expansion opens up the floodgates for expanding internationally.

Like once you get it in one part of a region, they can hopefully get it in other parts of the region.

So question is just how fast now will they be able to get this done?

I ran right here. They did their capital raise a couple weeks ago.

Street didn't like it initially. fell below 40 for a hot second, right back to 46.

Seems like the street is kind of okay with them raising about $2 billion right here.

Nebia still down about 2.4.

Nebas acquired some land today.

Um, where did they acquire it?

They acquired it in uh, Missouri, 398 acres.

It's an AI data center campus that could scale to 8 to 10 buildings and deliver 800 megawatts of capacity.

This will be the first data center in the US than Nebas fully built and operates itself.

So they officially acquired some more land in Missouri along with New Jersey.

398 acres which was announced this morning.

ONQ that's back at 54.

This thing was wasn't this thing like below 30 or something?

This thing got to No, it got to 38 in November.

Like even names that really don't have massive massive like growth or earnings, they've recovered with the market.

Not to their all-time highs, but they've still recovered pretty decently.

And so you see you're seeing a decent level of breath and consolidation that's been happening that's not been horrible to see.

AMD right there at 220 and then Nvidia at 18479.

Charlie says, "I'm in Missouri.

We got data center spots all over."

The big beautiful bill really did incentivize the building of data centers at scale.

Um especially with the zoning law changes they made.

So it makes sense that Missouri is getting that.

Hasset is live.

Okay, let's go to Hasset who likely is going to be our next Fed chair.

We'll see if Trump announces that by the end of the year or not, but that's going to be a big one.

Uh I don't see Hasset live.

I know he was live yesterday.

Don't see him live right now, but when we do see him, we'll pull it up and see what he is saying.

The 10ear, by the way, is where are we at? 4.153.

So, that one's still a little aggressive above 4%.

Not something we want to see on the 10ear.

4.153.

This thing was freaking below 4% a couple weeks ago.

So, the credit market's definitely saying, "Hey, not too fast."

The thing about the the 10-year, which is annoying, is that the rate cuts have not officially come down or sorry, the rate cuts have happened, but the the the rates have not meaningfully come down, interest rates.

So, it's like the yields aren't reflecting the 10-year.

The 10-year yield is not reflecting interest rates coming down.

And that just shows a lack of confidence from investors to actually buy up bonds even though the Fed is is lowering rates.

This was the Rocket Lab headline.

Rocket Lab clears significant milestone on its path to its first neutron launch launch on uh Rocket Lab's neutron launch vehicles innovative Hungry Hippoto captive fairing has successfully completed qualification testing and is on route to Virginia for Neutron's first launch.

Hungry Hippo is a captive payload fairing that stays attached to the rocket's first stage through launch and landing.

Instead of dropping its fairing like traditional rockets, Neutron opens the halves to to deploy the second stage and payload.

So that is uh I think one of the reasons Rocket Lab got a bit of a a boost in the pre-markets.

5124 almost hitting 52 right here as Neutron becomes closer than expected.

What is wrong with SoFi, dude?

Almost below 27.

Yes, I do think we're getting jolts today.

Let me make sure.

But I think in about 18 minutes we should be getting jolts which also could be the reason the market is waiting for some data.

Yes, in about 18 minutes we will get jolts.

Probably is not going to be the best.

Well, the jolts is for September though.

Oh no, we get up September and October, right?

Okay, we're definitely getting September.

It says we're going to get October.

I don't know if we're actually getting October.

We're not getting PPI for October.

The BLS came out yesterday said no PPI for October.

So, I mean, you can't have inflation if they don't give us the data.

So, I wonder if we're going to get jolts for October.

So far, right there, 2710 down 1.8%.

Jolts are job openings in America.

So, how many jobs are open?

And then, you know, the Fed can kind of make a decision on if there's less jobs open, should we be easing monetary policy to stimulate the economy to incentivize employers to hire more?

We're robbing it right there at 13560 down.36%.

SoFi did complete its dilution yesterday, but that news was pretty baked in for the past 72 hours.

So, and there they completed the dilution at 2750.

By the way, shout out to uh data driven investing.

He got a job at SoFi, which is absolutely crazy.

I mean, that is so cool.

He's going to be working for the office of the CFO.

So, unfortunately, he will have to shut down his uh Twitter account and YouTube account, but um and he won't be able to talk about the stock anymore.

But that's super cool, dude.

I mean, I I I did not expect SoFi to actually reach out to a retail investor.

And for anyone who's followed Data Driven's work, I mean, his analysis on SoFi's financials is like I mean, I I have not seen anyone analyze the numbers the way he has.

And he has a legit job at the company, which is crazy.

So unfortunately we are losing a really really prominent voice in the retail investor.

Part part of the reason I bought SoFi years ago or even continue to hold SoFi is because of his analysis and so unfortunately he's leaving the retail investor community.

But super awesome for him to actually get a job at the uh at the company.

This proves there are some jobs out there.

That is true.

This does prove there are some some jobs out there.

He leaked too much, so they decided to keep him in SoFi.

You know, I I I can't imagine that's not one of the things they thought about.

It's like, dude, this guy is analyzing our business so well, we might as well just bring him in the company, navigate it like that.

Uh, we do have a quote from Hasset.

Hasset responds to a question on how low the Fed should take rates.

He says, "Must recognize this is a transformative time like the 1990s.

AI is bigger than the computer for productivity."

So you've got Hassets once again arguing that we need to get these rates to come down.

By the way, October saw 153,000 job cuts, the worst October in 22 years.

And through October, we have 1.09 million layoffs.

This is a 65% jump from last year, and it's the highest since 2020.

So again, that's your bullcase for a rate cut.

When you see numbers like that, it's unlikely for us to not get a rate cut.

When you see the labor market start to weaken in the way that it's weakening, 89.4% chance 89.4% chance to potentially get that rake up.

Didn't you and DDI go back and forth with each other?

Yes.

I look, I think we had some healthy intellectual debates on Robin and SoFi.

Um, ultimately I still think he doesn't fully understand the Robinet thesis.

And maybe he thinks I don't fully understand the SoFi thesis, but those are healthy debates.

You know, those if you're if you're a public figure and you're going to be analyzing stocks, it's fun to have those debates.

Nonetheless, I have a lot of respect for the guy.

I just disagree with him on some of the ways he philosophically thinks about Robin Hood as a company.

But I just think it's a big win for retail for someone to get a job at that high.

The office of the CFO is no is a big deal.

like to be directly under the chief financial officer of a fast growing company like SoFi and to be meaningfully contributing that's a really big deal.

So I'm very very happy that he got that job and I do think it's going to be really good.

It makes me more bullish for SoFi quite frankly.

Why is Meta continually getting hit today bro?

1.7% down on the news that they're releasing a new model in 2026.

Is the market like bearish that they're releasing a model?

Isn't doesn't the market want them to release a model?

That's weird.

Spy goes green.

Hoodie about to go green.

13641 trying to break 137.

Galaxy up 4% on the day.

Rocket Lab very close to going green as well.

And Meta is still down.

Oh yeah, the Google glasses.

I forgot about that.

I saw that in the morning.

That's a big deal.

By the way, Accenture partnered with Anthropic today to uh train 30,000 consultants on how to use AI.

So, you've got more and more uh AI tech companies working with these consulting firms to work together.

Yeah.

So, Google Glasses essentially Google's coming out with a competitor to Ray-B bands.

Meta Ray-B bands.

I mean, Google has tried glasses in the past, but this one seems like a a legit a more legit competitor.

Could that actually be the reason, though?

Google says their first AI glasses will arrive next year.

They did demo this stuff back at this uh the the Google IO event, I think in July.

This is when the stock was at like 140.

Uh 2026 looks like when it's going to come out.

I don't know if this is really a bare case for Meta though, dude.

Like, like, first of all, glasses as an industry is not that big.

So, it's not like Meta has this massive market share that's going to be destroyed by Google.

And even if it is, who cares?

Like, yeah, it's not like Meta is selling that many glasses.

So, if Google takes half of what they're selling, it's like you're not buying Meta for the glasses right here.

But, nonetheless, the street probably will react to that.

Hims right here finally getting back above 40, which is nice to see.

That's up 3.3%.

Um, is that one holding on to a little bit of green?

Uh, the the rapper that I had on the stream yesterday, 24K Golden, he he likes him a lot and he thinks it's like a legit product uh or a legit solution for a lot of people, especially in the context of hair loss, which which again is a real thesis for him.

It's just you got a lot of credit card data coming out by all these banks and they're looking at it and they're saying Q3 is not going to be that good.

They missed on EPS by 40% less.

A lot of the excitement and momentum on hims has died down, but the long-term thesis, this like Netflix of healthcare is not really gone.

That thesis is still very much alive.

It's just, you know, the past couple quarters have not been the most exciting.

So, I don't know if this thing gets back to 70 anytime soon, but still, even with the decline from 70, it's up 60% year to date.

Can't be too upset about uh about that stock price performance.

Galaxy right there up 4%.

Bitcoin getting a little bit of a move above 90 and then Doby at 340 as well.

Oh, Hasset's talking at the Wall Street Journal conference.

Uh, okay.

So, Kevin Hasset at the conference has asked how low rates should go.

Uh, he says, "What we have to do is recognize that we're in the 90s.

We are in a potentially extremely transformative time.

Um, you have to watch and make sure inflation doesn't take off."

Someone says, "How much lower?"

He says, "You have to watch."

He says, "There's plenty of room to cut rates."

Someone says, 'What would you do if Trump wanted you to cut rates and you didn't think it was the right thing to do?

He says, 'Well, if inflation has gone from 2.5 to 4%, then you can't cut rates.

So, basically, he's saying, if I see a meaningful increase in inflation, I wouldn't cut rates, but he's arguing that we're not seeing that meaningful increase in inflation, which I mean, he's right about.

You're seeing inflation go up, but it's not going up that aggressively.

Wow.

Gold is pushing 60 or sorry, not gold, silver.

Gold is back at 4,200.

Has silver ever ever broken 60?

I don't think it has.

My goodness.

5914 up another 2% on the day.

The commodities trade not dying down.

Someone just sold 8 million of puts on Tesla.

Strike price 430.

That's bullish.

Again, when you're selling puts, it means you're ready to buy those shares at this strike price for January 9th, 2026.

January 9th, 2026.

24K silver is my new rap name.

That's crazy, dude.

That's absolutely crazy.

Silver, one of the trades of the year.

One of the trades of the year.

So far, starting to recover a little bit.

Robin Hood pushing 137 right here.

13670.

They're going to have an event on December 16th around prediction markets and AI.

Again, I think prediction markets I think people are really underestimating how big the TAM is for that industry.

I think it's going to keep growing and growing and growing.

Khi's like number one in the entire app store.

I think it's number five in the app store.

It's number one in finance.

Um I think it's going to be a really big industry.

Vlad did a great job on the podcast with the compounding friends and you know they talked about prediction markets and there was just like dude are are you seeing what we're seeing in terms of the excitement for it

and he was unequivocally saying that Robin Hood is seeing a behavioral change in the type of demand that consumers are engaging with when it comes to this product

and uh you know the business is a $300 million run rate right right now for them with three billion contracts every month

so I think it's only going to be a bigger bigger business for them over the coming year

service now that's at 853 they did approve move a five for one stock split last week.

Aries Management, which is like a uh private equity firm, they are getting into the S&P 500.

They are officially getting into the S&P 500 that was announced yesterday as well.

It didn't feel like Vlad liked the Compound Guys that much.

You know, I I think he was I think he did had a really good podcast.

The problem with the compound guys, and I've said this time and time again, they don't let the guests talk.

Like, I love those guys.

I I listen to the podcast every week, but they just don't shut up and let the guests talk.

They always like, if you're going to interject, you've got to interject and say something smart or say something that adds value.

They say something that's just like, "Dude, like, shut up.

We're not at a bar drinking a couple beers.

Like, it's a podcast about finance.

Like, let the finance guest talk."

It's Yeah, maybe it's the New York in them, but it's really annoying, dude.

Like, you're just like you and I, you know, I because I've interviewed Vlad a couple times.

One of the things I I learned about him is that he takes a long time to speak and you got to give him the time to to let him present it.

He's a very slow talker, but if you ask a good question, you'll get a good response.

And he's like midway trying to get through his answer, and they'll interrupt him.

And you could tell he's just like a little startled by it because he wants to finish his freaking answer.

And that's the most annoying part about that podcast.

So, I think Vlad did a great job, but I think they just have to let the guest actually Yeah.

Let him cook.

Actually, let him cook.

All right.

Who's Who's long Oracle and Adobe going into this week?

I'm going to put a poll in the chat.

I asked this last time at this exact same price on September 8th and Oracle went from 220 to 350.

I don't know if that happens again.

A couple of you guys actually bought calls the day before that and made some good money.

But I really wonder if the software names show up for the for the end of the year.

Long Oracle and Adobe this week.

Oracle Adobe both or neither?

What do you think?

Uh meetup details will be coming out soon.

Again, I'm doing a stream with my new manager on Friday.

That'll be at uh 700 p.m. 7:30 p.m. Eastern.

So, we'll have some details on the meetup uh on that stream.

But yeah, this weekend we'll have details and then next week we'll have a lot more details.

But yes, New York meetup is happening.

Likely is happening February 1st over January 25th because I forgot the AFC Championship is on January 25th for football.

So, probably going to do it fe February 1st, that Sunday.

And yes, we'll have more details on this going into the end of the uh the end of the week.

Oracle is slightly flat.

Again, Nvidia's down because China came out and said, "We don't want the H200s."

Basically, that's why Nvidia is down.

Otherwise, Nvidia would be at 190.

Um, so Trump is willing to sell them or Trump is letting Jensen sell them, but China doesn't necessarily want them.

Now granted, I think China's gonna still get some of them, which is net positive, but the streets moving on that narrative, and that's why I'm videoing right there at 183 is down on the day.

Yes, we will do technical Tuesday today as well.

Jason sent me a gift.

By the way, I'm going to show you guys on the stream on the market close, but uh it's a pretty dope gift.

So, I will show you guys when I'm live with Jason.

It was super cool.

Even my mom saw it. She was like, "Wow, this is amazing."

So, shout out to Jason.

But I'll show you guys the gift once uh once we go live today.

S&P 684, Iran at 47, then service now at 858.

All right, in 5 minutes we're going to get jolts for September.

Um, Crowd Strike is up as well.

The street is expecting 7.2 million.

Wow, Crowd Strike alltime highs.

7.2 million jobs.

Sorry, not alltime highs.

550 is alltime highs, but 525 is where we're at.

Uh, right here. Kind of like intrammon highs. Now, the thing is, I don't know if this jolt is going to matter that much.