迪拜的未来雄心:探索科技前沿、人机融合与城市沙盒模式 TED 2026-07-31

什么是未来基金会?

惠特尼·彭宁顿·罗杰斯: 您管理着迪拜未来基金会。对于我们这些不了解情况的人来说,什么是未来基金会?

Original English

Whitney Pennington Rodgers: You run the Dubai Future Foundation. For those of us who are not initiated, what is a future foundation?

卡尔凡·贝尔胡尔阁下: 想象一下你正在运行一个实验室,实验室的老板走过来对你说:“你可以做任何你想做的事情,你有我的全力支持,而且你有一笔非常充裕的资金保障。如果规则成了阻碍,我们可以为你改变规则。我们可以帮你联系任何相关的决策者来打破那些规则。如果你犯了错,我们不会生气;而对于你做出的每一个成功的赌注,我们都会给予你全力的支持。”总而言之,如果是你,你会接受这个提议吗?

Original English

His Excellency Khalfan Belhoul: So imagine you run a lab, and the owner of the lab comes to you and says, "You can do whatever you want, and you have my full backing and you have a solid amount of financial resources. If rules are an issue, we can change them for you. We can connect you with any relevant decision maker to break those rules. We will not be upset if you make mistakes, and we will support you on every winning bet you make." And in summary, will you take that?

惠特尼·彭宁顿·罗杰斯: 我会接受这个提议的。

Original English

Whitney Pennington Rodgers: I would take that deal.

卡尔凡·贝尔胡尔阁下: 好的,所以这个实验室的老板就是谢赫·穆罕默德·本·拉希德,而这个实验室就是迪拜未来基金会。情况就是这样。我们被赋予了探索新想法的权利和能力,去观察未来将走向何方。我们得到了高层信托委员会的支持和保障——我的意思是,我们的主席是王储,而董事会成员则是跨越所有部门的部长和总干事。这意味着,如果我们想颠覆交通出行方式,我们可以做到;如果我们想探讨医疗科技,我们可以做到;如果我们想探索金融科技,我们可以做到。我们身后有强大的力量支撑,也有在失败时的全力支持。

通常政府部门要么是阻碍,要么需要很长时间,要么极度官僚主义。但我们从我们的领导人那里听到的是,我们实际上可以直接去做这件事。这对于我们来说简直是天籁之音。因此,这推动着我们前进,这让我们在进行方向调整和转型时感到非常安心。如果这里有任何风险投资家,你们会比任何人都能更深刻地理解这一点。他们不会去谈论他们投资组合中那80%破产倒闭的项目,而是会全力支持那些获胜的赌注。他们都犯过那些错误,但他们不把它们看作错误,而是看作学习的经验教训。我认为,领导人赋予我们的这种勇于探索、测试并加倍投资获胜赌注的心态,正是迪拜未来基金会取得成功的关键所在。

Original English

His Excellency Khalfan Belhoul: OK, so the owner of the lab is Sheikh Mohammad bin Rashid, and the lab is Dubai Future Foundation. So that’s how it is. We are entitled and empowered to explore new ideas -- to see where the future is heading. We’ve been supported and backed by a top board of trustees -- I mean, our chairman is the crown prince. The board members are ministers and director generals across all sectors. Which means if we want to disrupt mobility, we can. If we want to talk health tech, we can. If we want to explore fintech, we can. We have the muscle behind us, and we have the support in case we fail. The unique thing [that] makes us -- which I’m sure you’re aware of from the global landscape -- that usually governments are a hurdle or they take time or they're bureaucratic. We are hearing from our leaders that we can actually do this. This is music to our ears. So this pushes us. This makes us comfortable at actually pivoting. And if we have any venture capitalists out here -- you would understand this more than anyone. They don’t talk about [the] 80 percent of their portfolio that goes bust, but they really back the winning bets. They’ve all made those mistakes, but they don’t look at them as mistakes -- they look at them as learning points. And I think this mindset that’s been given to us from leaders, to really explore and test and double down on winning bets, is what makes the Dubai Future Foundation a success.

培育未来视野与安全测试环境

惠特尼·彭宁顿·罗杰斯: 我想许多国家和城市都在谈论这种进步和成为“未来主义者”的想法,但要持续保持这种状态是很难的。你们通过哪些方式来获得各方的认可,并成功地在政府和文化中嵌入这种未来主义思维?

Original English

Whitney Pennington Rodgers: I think a lot of nations and a lot of cities talk about this idea of progress and being futurist, but it's hard to sustain that. What are some of the ways that you’re able to get buy-in and to be able to embed in both government and culture, futurist thinking?

卡尔凡·贝尔胡尔阁下: 我们所做的是,首先确保我们的内部团队是理解未来走向的专家。我们大力投资于那些在未来前瞻领域拥有专业知识的人才。我们对内部人才进行了大量投资。我们有一个前瞻团队,不断进行地平线扫描,这成为了我们的引擎。但我们并没有止步于此,因为这不仅仅局限于我们迪拜未来基金会内部。我们还与世界各地志同道合的网络建立连接,他们向我们源源不断地提供更多信息。这让我们对未来的走向有了一个清晰的视角。

然而,未来走得越远,它就变得越模糊。我们或许能对2026年发生的事情做出更好的预测,但走得越远,猜测的挑战性就越大,对吧?但你进行的对话越多,对话中包含的包容性越广,你的视野和可见度就会越好。然后,关键就在于保持敏捷和灵活,让每个人都参与进来,并有勇气去真正地测试。在测试的同时,也要创造一个安全的测试环境。因此,我们吸引了创业者和投资者,同时作为政府进行投资来提供支持,并创造一个我们称之为沙盒环境的空间——也就是以安全的方式真正去测试那些想法。例如,如果你正在研究“最后一公里”的无人机配送,在确保它对人们是绝对安全之前,你显然不会直接去部署它。你需要一个物理空间来做这件事。

而在那些物理实体感较弱、不那么触手可及的项目上——比如加密货币世界和数字资产,你虽然看不到它们呈现在你面前,但它们的价值是巨大的。然而,在创造一个虚拟的安全环境、并邀请所有相关方就部署的基础进行妥善对话之前,我们能直接把它们开放给市场吗?我的意思是,我们可以随心所欲地做许多尝试,但如果缺乏一个确保这能被安全且统一地部署的机制,那么我们就只是在自言自语。

Original English

His Excellency Khalfan Belhoul: What we do is we start, first of all, by ensuring that our internal teams are experts in understanding where the future is heading. We invest a lot in people that have this ... expertise when it comes to future foresight. We invest a lot in internal talent. We have a foresight team that does horizon scanning on a constant basis, and this becomes our engine. But we don't stop there because this is not only confined to us as Dubai Future Foundation. We also connect with like-minded networks from all over the world that feed us more information. And then this gives us a view of where the future is heading. And the further you go -- the grayer it becomes. We can maybe have a better prediction of what’s happening in 2026, but the more you go, the more challenging the guess would be, right? But the more conversations you have, the more inclusion there is in the conversation, the better visibility you have. Then it’s all about being agile and flexible and getting everyone involved and having the guts to really test. Test, but at the same time create a safe environment in testing. So you get the entrepreneurs, you get the investors, and you back it up by also investing as government and create an environment -- which is what we call the sandbox environment -- which is really testing those ideas in a safe manner. For example, if you're looking at last-mile drone deliveries, you're not going to deploy that before you actually make sure it's safe for people. You need that physical space for that. On the less physical and less tangible kind of projects -- look at the crypto world and the digital assets -- you don’t see them in front of you, but the value of them is immense. But can we actually open them up to the market before we create a virtual safe environment, including all the relevant parties, to have a proper conversation on a deployment basis? I mean, we can do as much of that as we want, but if there isn’t a mechanism of ensuring that this can be deployed safely and in a unified way, then we'll just be talking to ourselves.

经济转型与安全基石

惠特尼·彭宁顿·罗杰斯: 迪拜展示了如此引人注目的经济转型范例,从依赖石油收入转向旅游等其他领域。您能谈谈迪拜目前的经济状况,以及您认为这将如何影响城市未来的走向吗?

Original English

Whitney Pennington Rodgers: Well I think Dubai represents such a compelling example of economic transformation, shifting away from oil revenue to other spaces like tourism. Can you talk about the current economic state of Dubai and sort of how you think that will influence where the city is headed?

卡尔凡·贝尔胡尔阁下: 我们正生活在一个非常动荡的环境中。中东是一个非常艰难的地缘板块。从国土面积的角度来看,我们的国家并不大,但我们的雄心壮志比任何人都大。世界各地都存在着紧张局势,无论是在经济议题还是地缘政治议题上存在冲突的大国,而我们国家一直致力于成为和平的桥梁,无论是在商业上还是在政治上。我认为这正是吸引人们来到迪拜的原因。

我们作为当地人,往往容易低估安全因素和繁荣因素,因为我们太习惯这一切,生活得太安逸了。但是,当我们与那些选择迪拜或阿联酋作为家园的外国友人交谈时,倾听他们的想法会让我起鸡皮疙瘩。对他们和他们的家庭而言,安全和繁荣的这些微小细节竟然意味着那么多,这让我们真正感激这里的社会结构。但是,我们同样不是完美的。我们犯过不少错误,但我们会在做对的事情上加倍努力。

Original English

His Excellency Khalfan Belhoul: We are living in a very turbulent environment. The Middle East is a very tough neighborhood. Our country is not so big from a size perspective, but our ambitions are bigger than anyone’s. We have tensions around the world, whether it’s big nations conflicting on economicissues, geopolitical issues, and the country has pushed itself to be a bridge of peace, or when it comes to business, when it comes to geopolitics. And I think this is what really attracts people to come to Dubai. We as locals tend to underestimate the safety factor and the prosperity factor. We just got too comfortable and got too used to it. But when we have conversations with our fellow expats that come in and choose Dubai or the UAE as home -- we listen to them, [and it] gives me goosebumps on how those small details of safety and prosperity for them and their families mean so much that makes us really appreciate the structure here. But again, we’re not perfect. We've done our fair share of mistakes, but we double down on what we do right.

全球性挑战与人工智能浪潮

惠特尼·彭宁顿·罗杰斯: 作为一个世界,我们似乎正处于一个非常具有变革性的时刻。在您思考全球地缘政治紧张局势、经济问题,甚至诸如气候变化或人工智能的崛起等生存威胁时,您认为未来主义思维在全球进步中扮演着什么角色?

Original English

Whitney Pennington Rodgers: We seem to be in a very transformative moment as a world. What role do you think -- when you think about things like, beyond even just geopolitical tensions as you mentioned, and economic issues, [or] when you think about existential threats like climate change or the rise of artificial intelligence -- what role do you see futurists thinking playing in global progress?

卡尔凡·贝尔胡尔阁下: 那么我给你我微薄的建议:世界最近一直在向我们发出许多信号,表明除了我们大家携起手来之外,没有别的前行之路。你已经提到了它们。地缘政治问题单打独斗是行不通的——我们需要为和平共同努力。数字经济,当我们谈论人工智能的价值时,它的价值高达数万亿美元。从经济角度来看,我们谈论的是数万亿——这是另一个信号。气候变化,我们该如何解决?我们已经在 COP 缔约方大会的宣告及其他场合中看到了,这必须走向团结。

再来就是人工智能(AI)。如果我开始谈论 AI,我将根本停不下来。我的意思是,我们当中有多少人……让我先从你开始吧。你经常使用 ChatGPTGrok 或其他你叫得出名字的大语言模型(LLM)吗?你会使用它吗?

Original English

His Excellency Khalfan Belhoul: So I’ll tell you my humble advice: The world has recently been giving us so many signs, that there’s no other way forward than us to all get together. You’ve mentioned them. Geopolitical issues are not going to work -- we need to work together for peace. [The] digital economy, which is in trillions of dollars when we talk about the value of AI, we’re talking, economy-wise, about trillions -- that’s another sign. Climate change, how can we solve for that? There needs to be, we've seen it in COP announcements and beyond, there needs to be unity. AI. I mean, if I start to talk about AI, I won't stop. I mean, how many of us ... Let me maybe start with you. How much do you use ChatGPT, Grok, or you name it, those LLMs? Do you use it?

惠特尼·彭宁顿·罗杰斯: 经常用。

Original English

Whitney Pennington Rodgers: Regularly.

卡尔凡·贝尔胡尔阁下: 你每天都用吗?

Original English

His Excellency Khalfan Belhoul: Do you use it daily?

惠特尼·彭宁顿·罗杰斯: 大概是吧,是的。

Original English

Whitney Pennington Rodgers: Probably, yeah.

卡尔凡·贝尔胡尔阁下: 我也是每天都在用。大家举手示意一下,你们每天都使用它吗?好的。你们使用它的程度,到了让你们觉得屏幕另一端坐着一个活生生的人在跟你们说话的地步了吗?

Original English

His Excellency Khalfan Belhoul: I use it daily. Raise of hands. Do you use it daily? OK. Do you use it to the extent that you actually feel there's a person sitting on the other side talking to you?

惠特尼·彭宁顿·罗杰斯: 目前还没有,但我知道很多人的确有这种感觉。

Original English

Whitney Pennington Rodgers: Not yet, but I know many who do.

卡尔凡·贝尔胡尔阁下: 我已经很接近这种感觉了。我是说真的——从我们互动的实际情况来看,有时你能体会到一种情感的角度,还有它的那些回复——而在如何应对这一切上,我们甚至还没有触及皮毛。在与 ChatGPT 以及许多此类 LLM 对话时,你会感到如此舒适。所以想象一下,如果——我跟同事说过这个,也许我听起来像是个复读机——但想象一下,去跟一个长得很像人类的机器人进行这样的对话——我们很快就会看到这样的场景,我向你保证这一天很快就会到来——它拥有与 ChatGPT 相同的智力,甚至高出一千倍以上。

人类会发生什么?我们该如何真正地互动,甚至是站在情感的角度?世界上有一些比较脆弱和容易受影响的个体,他们觉得和机器人相处比和人相处更舒服。那么,这对我们作为人类意味着什么?我们会对机器人产生依恋吗?我们该如何对此进行监管?我们该如何真正从人工智能中提取价值?这就是为什么我说,我们现在在 ChatGPT 上看到的,只是这个拥有巨大价值的“猛兽”在第一年、第一天、第一小时、第一分钟、第一秒所展露出来的端倪。但我们真的需要去拥抱它,而且我们需要共同去拥抱它。迪拜、阿联酋或中东地区绝无可能单枪匹马完成这件事,美国不行,中国也不行——这是一个通力协作的努力。

甚至看看我们现在的孩子们以及他们对科技的依恋——合适的平衡点是什么?他们在屏幕前非常聪明,但如果你请他们走到舞台上进行一次面对面的交谈,他们可能就不会那么舒适了,因为他们已经太深地融入到科技中了。他们做的事情我可能永远也想不到去怎么做,因为他们太投入了,并且做得极其出色。但生活不仅仅是这些——关键在于你如何取得平衡。以及我们作为人类该如何齐心协力地聚在一起?因为科技虽然超级有价值,但人类更重要。

Original English

His Excellency Khalfan Belhoul: I'm close to that. I’m telling you -- from the fact that we interact and the emotional angle sometimes you get, and the responses -- we haven’t even scratched the surface on how [to] deal with that. And you feel so comfortable talking to ChatGPT and many of those LLMs, so imagine you actually -- this gets, and I’ve said this, maybe I might sound like a broken record to my colleagues -- but imagine having this conversation with a robot that looks like a human -- which we are not far from seeing, and I promise you that this is going to come very soon -- with the same intellect of the ChatGPT, [or] even a thousand times much more than that. What happens to humanity and how do we really interact, even from an emotional standpoint? We have some weak and vulnerable individuals around the world that feel more comfortable with robots than humans. So what would this mean to us as humanity? Are we going to get attached to robots? How are we going to regulate that? How are we going to really extract value [from] artificial intelligence? That’s why I’m saying [that] what we see with ChatGPT now is the first second of the first minute of the first hour of the first day of the first year of this beast that has so much value, but that we really need to embrace [it], and we need to embrace [it] jointly. And there's no chance that Dubai or the UAE or the Middle East can do it alone. Nor the US, nor China -- it’s a collaborative effort. Even look at our kids now [and] their attachment to technology -- what is the right balance? They’re so smart in front of screens, but if you ask them to come on stage and have a conversation, they might not be as comfortable because they’re just so involved with technology, and they do things that I’ll probably never think of doing because they’re so into it, and they’re doing such an amazing job. But life is not only about that -- it’s how you strike the balance. And how do we really huddle up together as humanity? Because technology is super valuable, but humans are more important.

人机融合与生命科学的边界

惠特尼·彭宁顿·罗杰斯: 阁下,在让您离开之前,我必须问您最后一个问题。您花了这么多时间思考未来,您认为在思考前方的道路时,我们大多数人漏掉的重大事情是什么?

Original English

Whitney Pennington Rodgers: Well, Your Excellency, I cannot let you go without asking you this last question. You spend so much time thinking about the future. What do you think is the big thing that many of us are missing when we think about what's ahead?

卡尔凡·贝尔胡尔阁下: 有一个特别突出的点在我脑海里挥之不去。我先提几个其他的,然后再告诉你具体是哪一个。首先是寿命延长与生存问题——尤其是伴随着目前神经科学的进步——我们可以预见到人类活到150岁,这距离我们现在已经不远了。我认为这个说法让许多人感到兴奋。我不知道你们是否对此感到兴奋,但对许多人来说——如果你处于良好的健康状态下——会希望活到150岁。考虑到基因技术、DNA采样,以及我刚才提到的神经科学的发展,这并不遥远。

另外,我也认为人类成为多行星物种的目标,同样距离我们不远了。到达不同行星的途径正变得越来越容易,并且更具成本效益。所以这也是一个可能让科学家们感到兴奋的大胆想法。……不过我觉得我们在地球上拥有的已经够多了,不知道我们是否真的想去那里,但当然,拥有这种能力是每个人都感到兴奋的事情。这是一个大胆但在未来可以实现的声明。

然而,那个真正、真正、真正让我深思的,并且与我刚才提到的评论稍微相关的点是:一旦你真正将人类智能与人工智能融合成一个单一的神经网络。当这发生时,事情将变得真正令人兴奋。因为我们之前讨论过 AI 将会超级聪明,几乎像人类一样,正如前一点所说,这在非常近的未来就会发生。看看我们是如何与 ChatGPT 打交道的。但如果 AI 被注入到人类体内,形成一个连接人类智能与人工智能的单一网络呢?我认为,随着神经科学的发展,这并不遥远。这又是一件真正需要协作、理解和团结的事情,因为这是一个全新的世界。

Original English

His Excellency Khalfan Belhoul: There's one that sticks out to me. So I'll mention a few and then I'll tell you which one. So I mean, longevity and living to -- especially with the ... advancement of neuroscience at the moment -- we can see people living until 150 years, and this is not far from now. I think [this is] a statement that is exciting to many. I’m not sure if you guys are excited about this, but [for] many people -- if you’re in good health -- would want to live to 150. I think this is not far off, given the advancement of genetics and DNA sampling. And like I said, neuroscience. I think humans, being a multi-planetary species, are not far from that as well. The access to different planets has become easier and easier and cost-effective. So this is also a bold kind of thought that’s probably exciting scientists. ... I think we have enough on Earth. I don't know if we want to be there, but of course, I mean, having that is something that everyone is excited about. It’s a bold statement but achievable. But the one that really, really, really makes me think a lot, [and] is slightly relevant to the comment I mentioned, is: once you really infuse human intelligence with artificial intelligence into one neural network, when this happens, this is when things are going to be really exciting because we're talking about AI being super smart, almost human-like. And this, to the previous point, is happening and happening very soon. Look at how we're dealing with ChatGPT. But then what if AI was infused in a human, having a single kind of network ... that connects human intelligence with artificial intelligence? I think, with neuroscience, this is not very far. And this is something that really requires, again, collaboration, understanding and unity, because this is a whole new world.

惠特尼·彭宁顿·罗杰斯: 阁下,这非常富有洞察力且令人兴奋。我相信我也代表了在这里的每一个人。非常感谢您今天抽空与我们在一起。

(掌声)

Original English

Whitney Pennington Rodgers: Well, Your Excellency, this has been insightful and exciting. I'm sure I speak for everyone here. Thank you so much for taking the time to be with us today. (Applause)

📌 文中提及的人物和组织

公司/组织: Dubai Future Foundation

产品/模型: ChatGPT, Grok

关键字: future-foresight sandbox-regulation human-robot-interaction neuroscience artificial-intelligence