开场与市场概览

Carol Massar: This is Bloomberg Businessweek Daily, reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies and trends shaping today's complex economy.

Carol Massar: 这里是《彭博商业周刊每日》，我们是来自那本杂志的报道，该杂志通过对正在塑造当今复杂经济的人物、公司和趋势的洞察，帮助全球领导者保持领先。

Plus, global business, finance and tech news as it happens, Bloomberg Businessweek Daily with Carol Massar and Tim Stennett back live on Bloomberg Radio, Television, YouTube and Bloomberg Originals at a very good afternoon.

此外，还有全球商业、金融和科技新闻的实时报道，《彭博商业周刊每日》由 Carol Massar 和 Tim Stennett 在彭博广播电台、电视台、YouTube 和彭博原创节目中现场直播，大家下午好。

A happy Monday, everybody.

祝大家周一愉快。

A very busy Monday Carol Massar along with Bailey Lipschultz.

一个非常忙碌的周一，我是 Carol Massar，和 Bailey Lipschultz 一起。

Tim is off this week and we got a lot going on.

Tim 这周休息，我们有很多事情要忙。

It's October 13th.

今天是10月13日。

Monday.

周一。

God, you got stocks higher on all of this way higher after a big sell off on Friday.

天哪，周五大跌之后，所有这些因素都让股市大涨，涨幅非常大。

So buying the dip seeming to work again for another session.

所以，逢低买入似乎又在一个交易日奏效了。

Bailey Lipschultz: Good point.

Bailey Lipschultz: 说得好。

Right.

没错。

To see that investors come back and see what's going on.

看到投资者回来关注正在发生的事情。

We've got another AI related deal involving OpenAI.

我们又有一笔与 OpenAI (人工智能研究实验室: 专注于开发和推广友好AI的机构) 相关的交易。

We've got the U.S. and China, Bailey.

Bailey，我们还有中美关系。

It seems like not so good on Friday.

周五看起来不太好。

Right.

没错。

And but over the weekend, it feels like there was some movement that maybe these trade talks are continuing, seeming to walk back via true social yet again, surprise, surprise.

但整个周末，感觉好像有一些进展，也许这些贸易谈判正在继续，似乎又一次通过 True Social 平台有所回转，真是意外。

But to your point, we're seeing critical minerals rallying and rare earths stocks rallying.

但正如你所说，我们看到关键矿产和稀土股票都在上涨。

So a lot of excitement or at least maybe a sigh of relief on this Monday.

所以在这个周一，有很多令人兴奋的事情，或者至少可以松一口气。

Carol Massar: Exactly.

Carol Massar: 没错。

All right.

好的。

So we're going to try and tackle all of this.

所以我们要努力解决所有这些问题。

I do feel like they're big, big, big issues.

我确实觉得它们都是非常非常大的问题。

So we're going to get into the latest on that cease fire deal between Israel and Hamas.

所以我们将深入探讨以色列和哈马斯停火协议的最新进展。

At the same time, I'm sure you've been watching OpenAI and Broadcom today.

同时，我相信你今天一直在关注 OpenAI 和 Broadcom (博通: 全球领先的半导体和基础设施软件解决方案供应商)。

Bailey Lipschultz: Yeah.

Bailey Lipschultz: 是的。

What you need to know about that, Stocks rallying, as you mentioned, chip stocks rallying.

你需要了解的是，正如你所说，股市上涨，芯片股上涨。

Broadcom, last time I checked, was up, I think about 10%.

博通，我上次看的时候，涨了大约10%。

So best day in quite some time.

所以是相当长一段时间以来最好的一天。

Having a good day for one of the biggest stocks in the world, mind you.

请记住，这是全球最大股票之一的好日子。

And also we've got a double dose of the view from the C-suite following earnings on the industrial sector.

此外，我们还将听到工业部门财报发布后，来自高管层的双重观点。

Daniel Flores, CEO of Fastenal and on the Retail and Consumer Committe Singh, CFO and Growth officer at Levi Strauss.

Fastenal (Fastenal: 工业和建筑用品分销商) 首席执行官 Daniel Flores，以及 Levi Strauss (李维斯: 全球知名的牛仔服装公司) 的首席财务官兼增长官 Harmeet Singh。

I don't know.

我不知道。

Are you a big Levi fan?

你是李维斯的忠实粉丝吗？

Carol Massar: I love Levi's.

Carol Massar: 我喜欢李维斯。

I've gone back to buying them like I love them, I love them.

我又开始买它们了，我太喜欢它们了。

And I think what's interesting we are let's not forget, I forget what day it is, right?

我认为有趣的是，我们别忘了，我忘了今天是哪天了，对吧？

Government shutdown.

政府停摆。

But here we are.

但我们在这里。

It continues going on longer than many thought.

它持续的时间比许多人想象的要长。

And so what these CEOs have to say about the environment I think is really important when we are kind of data deficient courtesy of the government just sitting in that data vacuum, if you will.

因此，当政府让我们陷入数据真空时，这些首席执行官对当前环境的看法我认为非常重要。

But at least we get big bank earnings in the next few days.

但至少在接下来的几天里，我们将看到大型银行的财报。

Bailey Lipschultz: We do get big bang.

Bailey Lipschultz: 我们确实有大新闻。

All right.

好的。

Get ready.

准备好。

Everybody is going to be a busy week.

每个人都将迎来忙碌的一周。

First up, though, let's get a check on the trade and your top business stories to sort things over to Amy Morris in for Charlie.

不过，首先，让我们检查一下贸易情况和您的头条商业新闻，然后交给 Amy Morris 代替 Charlie。

市场更新与企业新闻

Amy Morris: All right.

Amy Morris: 好的。

Thank you, Carol.

谢谢你，Carol。

Wall Street traders drove stocks toward their best session since May.

华尔街交易员推动股市创下自5月以来的最佳表现。

The U.S. and China signaling that willingness to keep trade negotiations alive.

中美双方表示愿意保持贸易谈判的活力。

We checked markets for you all day long here at Bloomberg.

我们在彭博社全天为您关注市场。

The S&P 500 (标普500指数: 衡量美国500家大型上市公司股票表现的指数) up 1.6%, NASDAQ up more than 2%.

标普500指数上涨1.6%，纳斯达克指数上涨超过2%。

The Dow (道琼斯工业平均指数: 衡量美国30家大型上市公司股票表现的指数) up one and a quarter percent.

道琼斯工业平均指数上涨1.25%。

The ten year Treasury note (国库券: 美国财政部发行的中长期政府债券) bond markets are closed for the holiday half open.

十年期国库券债券市场因假期半开。

OpenAI signed a multi-year agreement with Broadcom to collaborate on custom chips and networking equipment marking the latest step in the AI startup's (人工智能初创公司: 专注于人工智能技术和应用的新兴企业) ambitious plan to add computing infrastructure.

OpenAI 与博通签署了一项多年协议，将合作开发定制芯片和网络设备，标志着这家人工智能初创公司在增加计算基础设施方面的雄心勃勃计划迈出了最新一步。

The hardware rollout should be completed by the end of 2029.

硬件部署应在2029年底前完成。

That's according to the companies.

这是根据这些公司所说。

With Broadcom shares now 10% higher.

博通股价目前上涨10%。

Debney Disney shares 1% higher.

迪士尼股价上涨1%。

Taylor Swift says she'll have new content that will premiere on Disney Plus (迪士尼串流媒体服务: 迪士尼公司旗下的视频流媒体平台) in December.

泰勒·斯威夫特表示，她的新内容将于12月在 Disney Plus 上首播。

That's according to a post on Ex the Arrows Tour.

这是根据她在 X 上关于“The Eras Tour”的帖子。

The final show, a six episode behind the scenes docu series will premiere December 12th on Disney Plus Warner Brothers. Discovery (华纳兄弟探索公司: 一家全球性的媒体和娱乐公司) shares are more than four and a half percent higher as the media company reportedly rejected Paramount's (派拉蒙: 美国一家知名的媒体和娱乐公司) guidance initial takeover approach for being too low.

最后一场演出，一部六集幕后纪录片系列将于12月12日在 Disney Plus 上首播，华纳兄弟探索公司的股价上涨超过4.5%，因为据报道这家媒体公司拒绝了派拉蒙最初的收购提议，理由是价格过低。

Sources tell Bloomberg that Paramount has several options in its pursuit of Warner Brothers.

消息人士告诉彭博社，派拉蒙在收购华纳兄弟的行动中有多种选择。

The government shutdown is leaving investors desperate for a fresh read on the economy.

政府停摆让投资者急于了解经济的最新情况。

Banks are seen as uniquely positioned to fill in some of those information gaps.

银行被认为是填补这些信息空白的独特角色。

Jp morgan (摩根大通: 一家全球性的金融服务公司), Goldman Sachs (高盛: 一家全球性的投资银行和金融服务公司) and Citigroup (花旗集团: 一家全球性的金融服务公司) all set to report third quarter earnings tomorrow for on Demand news 24 hours a day.

摩根大通、高盛和花旗集团都定于明天公布第三季度财报，全天24小时提供按需新闻。

Subscribe to Bloomberg News now wherever you get your podcasts.

现在就在您收听播客的任何地方订阅彭博新闻。

I'm Amy Morris.

我是 Amy Morris。

That's a Bloomberg business plan.

那是彭博的商业计划。

Let's go back to Bloomberg Businessweek Daily with Carol Massar and Bailey Lipschultz.

让我们回到 Carol Massar 和 Bailey Lipschultz 主持的《彭博商业周刊每日》。

Carol Massar: All right.

Carol Massar: 好的。

So appreciate it.

非常感谢。

Of course, Amy Morris in there for Charlie Pellet.

当然，Amy Morris 代替 Charlie Pellet 在那里。

以色列与哈马斯停火协议

Hey, President Trump called for the historic dawn of a new Middle East in an an address to the Israeli parliament.

嘿，特朗普总统在以色列议会发表演讲时，呼吁开创一个新中东的历史性黎明。

That was earlier today as he visits the region to celebrate a deal halting the war in Gaza and securing the release of prisoners held by Hamas (哈马斯: 巴勒斯坦伊斯兰抵抗运动组织，被多国认定为恐怖组织).

那是在今天早些时候，他访问该地区以庆祝一项停止加沙战争并确保哈马斯扣押囚犯获释的协议。

That has happened now.

现在这已经发生了。

The president just left Egypt after meeting with leaders from across the world to celebrate that deal that could bring an end to a devastating two year war that destroyed most of Gaza, much of Gaza and inflame tensions across the region.

总统刚刚离开埃及，此前他会见了来自世界各地的领导人，共同庆祝这项可能结束一场毁灭性两年战争的协议，这场战争摧毁了加沙大部分地区，并加剧了整个地区的紧张局势。

This is the day that people across the region and around the world have been working, striving, hoping and praying for.

这是该地区和世界各地人民一直努力、奋斗、希望和祈祷的日子。

They have done things over the last month that I think were really unthinkable.

他们上个月所做的事情，我认为是真正不可思议的。

Nobody thought this could happen.

没有人认为这会发生。

With the historic agreement we've just signed, those prayers of millions have finally been answered.

随着我们刚刚签署的历史性协议，数百万人的祈祷终于得到了回应。

And that, of course, was President Trump earlier from Egypt.

当然，那是早些时候特朗普总统在埃及的讲话。

For more, we head to Israel and Jerusalem.

欲了解更多，我们前往以色列耶路撒冷。

Add to Bloomberg's Oliver Crook.

请听彭博社的 Oliver Crook。

He is Bloomberg News correspondent.

他是彭博新闻社的记者。

Oliver Hard not to feel like after a really difficult two years that this is it's somewhat historic.

Oliver，经过两年非常艰难的时期，很难不觉得这多少有些历史意义。

At the same time, we know that there is still much to be done to work out.

同时，我们也知道还有很多事情需要解决。

First off today, talk about the significance of what has happened on this Monday, October 13th.

首先，请谈谈10月13日这个周一所发生事件的意义。

Oliver Crook: Carol, I think the difficulty is joining these two ideas, the sort of close of the first chapter of what has been a horrific two years, obviously, for the Israelis beginning on October 7th and then ensuing within the Gaza Strip for the last two years, where, as you say, you know, almost 70,000 people have been killed, the majority of which are women and children.

Oliver Crook: Carol，我认为困难在于将这两个概念结合起来：一个可怕的两年篇章的第一章的结束，显然，对以色列人来说，始于10月7日，然后是过去两年在加沙地带的持续冲突，正如你所说，近7万人丧生，其中大多数是妇女和儿童。

And that sort of devastation that has just been ripped through the Gaza Strip, that came to a close and came to a silence on Friday night and really trying to usher in this moment of peace.

那种对加沙地带的破坏，在周五晚上画上了句号，归于沉寂，我们正努力迎来这个和平时刻。

And we should say we started the day today, Carol, with 20 hostages alive, still held by Hamas.

我们应该说，Carol，我们今天开始的时候，还有20名人质仍然被哈马斯扣押，他们还活着。

They have now been repatriated to Israel.

他们现在已经遣返回以色列。

We have begun the prisoner swap, the prisoners being released from the Israeli side into the West Bank (约旦河西岸: 中东地区的一个内陆区域) into Gaza.

我们已经开始了囚犯交换，以色列方面释放的囚犯已进入约旦河西岸和加沙。

Almost 2000 of those will be released in the first phase of this plan.

其中近2000人将在该计划的第一阶段获释。

And I think that it is fair to say and I think Donald Trump is fair to claim the kind of credit that he is claiming.

我认为公平地说，唐纳德·特朗普声称的功劳是合理的。

And even the greatest critics of Trump, I think today would say that it's his sort of unconventional foreign policy and unorthodox approach that really made this happen.

即使是特朗普最严厉的批评者，我认为今天也会说，正是他那种非传统的对外政策和非正统的做法才真正促成了这一切。

It's hard to imagine the traditional levers of foreign policy being able to bring this deal into being.

很难想象传统的外交手段能够促成这项协议。

That being said, as that one chapter closes, that sweet chapter sort of closes, it sort of masks the complexity and the bitter complexity of the next chapter that now is open, the one that began in Egypt today with the president of the United States convening all of these leaders from across the world, many from Arab states.

话虽如此，当那个篇章，那个甜蜜的篇章，算是结束的时候，它也掩盖了现在开启的下一个篇章的复杂性和苦涩。这个篇章今天在埃及开始，美国总统召集了来自世界各地的所有这些领导人，其中许多来自阿拉伯国家。

We should say that the sort of four new leaders that were put in the prominence in that main hall where the Turkish leader, obviously Trump and the leader of Egypt and the leader of Qatar, those are seen as kind of the sort of foundational members of this member of this agreement that has been worked out over the last couple of weeks.

我们应该说，在那主会堂中，土耳其领导人、显然是特朗普、埃及领导人和卡塔尔领导人这四位新出现的领导人，被视为过去几周来达成的这项协议的基础成员。

And that really materialized very quickly over the last week.

而这在过去一周内很快就实现了。

But again, it does very little to explain some of the difficulties that still lie ahead, the difficulties about how this sort of governance structure is going to work in Gaza with this so-called Board of Peace overseeing it.

但同样，这对于解释未来仍存在的某些困难几乎毫无帮助，比如加沙的这种治理结构将如何运作，以及由这个所谓的和平委员会来监督它。

Who's going to participate in that?

谁将参与其中？

The question of security forces within the Gaza Strip, a security apparatus that is both legitimate to the Israelis and to the Palestinians.

加沙地带内部安全部队的问题，一个对以色列人和巴勒斯坦人都合法的安全机构。

And, of course, I think the most immediate question, what is the future of Hamas?

当然，我认为最直接的问题是，哈马斯的未来是什么？

And this is a question that is still fundamentally unanswered.

而这个问题仍未得到根本性的回答。

And the Israeli war aims have been two fold since the very beginning.

以色列的战争目标从一开始就是双重的。

The return of the hostages that was accomplished today and the dismantling or destruction of Hamas that has not yet been finished.

今天实现了人质的返回，但哈马斯的解体或摧毁尚未完成。

So when you ask a very simple question at the end of this day, is the war over?

所以，当你在这天结束时问一个非常简单的问题：战争结束了吗？

The answer is not necessarily yes, depending on who you ask.

答案不一定为是，这取决于你问谁。

To Donald Trump, it is absolutely over.

对唐纳德·特朗普来说，这绝对结束了。

Ask Benjamin Netanyahu.

问本雅明·内塔尼亚胡。

You may not get the same answer in all of our.

你可能不会在我们所有的采访中得到相同的答案。

Carol Massar: You mentioned President Donald Trump.

Carol Massar: 你提到了唐纳德·特朗普总统。

What was the reception like for him today?

他今天受到了怎样的接待？

As you mentioned, traditional means likely wouldn't have resulted in where we are today.

正如你所说，传统手段可能无法达到我们今天所处的局面。

特朗普在以色列的受欢迎程度

Oliver Crook: It was a it was a hero's welcome.

Oliver Crook: 那是英雄般的欢迎。

I mean, even as before you touched down in Israel, as I was arriving a couple of days ago, you could see one of the skyscrapers in Tel Aviv looking out the window with an Israeli flag and an American flag.

我的意思是，甚至在你抵达以色列之前，我几天前刚到的时候，你就能看到特拉维夫的一座摩天大楼，窗外悬挂着一面以色列国旗和一面美国国旗。

And underneath it said, thank you.

下面写着“谢谢”。

And once you land, you get into the airport.

一旦你降落，进入机场。

There are still they the posters of the hostages that have been there since the beginning of the attack.

那里仍然有自袭击开始以来就一直存在的人质海报。

You take the highway from Tel Aviv here to Jerusalem, which is the same route that the president took today.

你从特拉维夫走高速公路到耶路撒冷，这是总统今天走的同一条路线。

These are highways that are lined with Israeli flags.

这些高速公路两旁都挂满了以色列国旗。

Ordinarily, since Friday night, every third flag is an American flag.

通常情况下，自周五晚上以来，每三面旗帜中就有一面是美国国旗。

And that is exactly the reception that Donald Trump got here in Israel speaking before the Knesset (Knesset: 以色列的立法机关).

而这正是唐纳德·特朗普在以色列议会发表演讲时所受到的接待。

I think that this sort of hyperbole reached its sort of vaulting height when the speaker of the Knesset said that you will be remembered, Donald Trump, not just as an American president, but you will be remembered as a giant in Jewish history and you will be remembered for thousands of years to come.

我认为这种夸张达到了顶峰，当时议会议长说，唐纳德·特朗普，你不仅将作为一位美国总统被铭记，你还将作为犹太历史上的巨人被铭记，并将在未来数千年内被世人记住。

That is what he was told.

他被告知的就是这些。

And again, that is been sort of broadly speaking, it's, I think, fair to say that Trump is certainly the most popular politician in Israel and probably at this moment, the most popular person in Israel.

再说一次，这在广义上讲，我认为可以公平地说，特朗普无疑是以色列最受欢迎的政治家，可能在这一刻，也是以色列最受欢迎的人。

Carol Massar: What about Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu?

Carol Massar: 那么总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡呢？

Not so popular.

不太受欢迎。

Oliver Crook: Well, he's actually gained a little bit of support in the polls after this deal was sort of struck.

Oliver Crook: 嗯，在这项协议达成后，他在民意调查中实际上获得了一些支持。

But again, is you're speaking to sort of one of the main issues.

但同样，你正在谈论主要问题之一。

I mean, we can go all the way back to before October 7th when there were literally hundreds of thousands of people in the streets, huge divisions within Israeli society trying to get Benjamin Netanyahu to call elections to step down.

我的意思是，我们可以追溯到10月7日之前，当时街上 literally 有数十万人，以色列社会内部存在巨大分歧，试图让本雅明·内塔尼亚胡举行选举并下台。

All of those sorts of thing.

所有这些事情。

Then October the seventh happened, this sort of war government was assembled, but there are still a lot of questions about what comes next for the Israeli government himself and for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

然后10月7日发生了，这种战时政府组建起来，但关于以色列政府本身以及总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡的下一步行动，仍然有很多问题。

If you go by the election schedule, the next election is going to be in October.

如果按照选举日程，下一次选举将在10月举行。

But again, you have the sort of constituents of the Israeli government currently better being held up largely by these sort of far right wing of Israeli politics by the ministers, Smotrich and Ben-gvir, who, by the way, did not pull out their support of the government in order to bring it to collapse for this deal.

但同样，以色列政府目前的组成部分，很大程度上是由以色列政治中的这些极右翼部长 Smotrich 和 Ben-gvir 支撑着，顺便说一句，他们并没有为了这项协议而撤回对政府的支持，使其垮台。

But they did not vote for this deal.

但他们没有投票支持这项协议。

They did not support this deal.

他们不支持这项协议。

They are people who more than likely would like to continue to prosecute this war further and further.

他们很可能希望将这场战争进一步推进。

So there's still these disagreements that exist, and we should say in a hostage square, when we had Steve Whitcomb speaking a couple of days ago alongside Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump, every time Trump's name came up, massive applause, massive cheering.

所以这些分歧依然存在，我们应该说，在人质广场，几天前史蒂夫·惠特科姆与贾里德·库什纳和伊万卡·特朗普一起发言时，每次提到特朗普的名字，都会爆发出巨大的掌声和欢呼声。

And in the literally 800,000 people that were watching it.

有将近80万人观看。

However, when Benjamin Netanyahu, his name came up, massive booing across that crowd, you could say that that is a crowd that is more traditionally hostile to Benjamin Netanyahu.

然而，当本雅明·内塔尼亚胡的名字出现时，人群中爆发出巨大的嘘声，你可以说那是一群传统上对本雅明·内塔尼亚胡更具敌意的人。

That is not the universal feeling.

那并非普遍的感受。

But there's a lot of complexity under the surface in politics.

但在政治表面之下，存在着许多复杂性。

There's been a lot of complexity throughout the last two years, certainly with this.

过去两年一直存在许多复杂性，当然包括这次。

Carol Massar: Oliver.

Carol Massar: Oliver。

So good to check in with you.

很高兴能与你交流。

I know we'll be checking in with you once again next hour for any updates on this.

我知道下一小时我们会再次与你联系，了解最新进展。

That is Oliver Cook.

那是 Oliver Cook。

He is correspondent for Bloomberg News there in Jerusalem.

他是彭博新闻社驻耶路撒冷的记者。

All right.

好的。

We want to stay on this story.

我们想继续关注这个故事。

Joining us right now is Mona Yacoubian.

现在加入我们的是 Mona Yacoubian。

She is director and senior adviser, Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

她是战略与国际研究中心中东项目主任兼高级顾问。

She joins us from Washington, D.C..

她从华盛顿特区加入我们。

Mona, should President Trump be taking a victory lap here?

Mona，特朗普总统在这里应该庆祝胜利吗？

停火后的挑战与哈马斯的未来

Mona Yacoubian: I think the president does deserve to take a victory lap, considering what has been accomplished today.

Mona Yacoubian: 考虑到今天所取得的成就，我认为总统确实应该庆祝胜利。

The release of the last 20 remaining hostages who were alive are alive in Gaza.

在加沙，最后20名仍然活着的人质已被释放。

The the cessation of hostilities for now, the flowing in of much needed assistance into Gaza.

目前敌对行动的停止，以及急需的援助物资流入加沙。

These are important milestones.

这些都是重要的里程碑。

However, I think the president is perhaps premature in saying the war is over.

然而，我认为总统说战争结束可能为时过早。

The difficult steps ahead are the ones that we will have to watch closely to see if, in fact, his aspirations become reality.

接下来的艰难步骤，我们将不得不密切关注，以看他的愿望是否能成为现实。

Carol Massar: And how does that play out?

Carol Massar: 那会如何发展呢？

If you were going to say that this is presumably some form of a stopgap and not necessarily conclusion and marking a next chapter, what plays out?

如果你说这可能是一种权宜之计，不一定是结论，而是标志着下一个篇章的开始，那么会发生什么？

How does this play out and kind of what's your view on that?

这会如何发展？你对此有何看法？

Mona Yacoubian: But what will distinguish what happened today from cease fires in the past is if the various points that are laid down in President Trump's 20 point plan are in fact implemented.

Mona Yacoubian: 但今天发生的事情与过去的停火协议不同之处在于，特朗普总统20点计划中提出的各项要点是否得到实际执行。

Critical among them is the disarming of Hamas.

其中关键一点是解除哈马斯的武装。

Hard to know how exactly that's going to happen.

很难确切知道那将如何发生。

The the the agreement itself is very short on details.

协议本身细节非常少。

There's also the envisioning of an international stabilization force that would surge into Gaza and be responsible for security.

还有设想一支国际稳定部队将涌入加沙并负责安全。

Not at all clear how that's going to happen.

完全不清楚那将如何实现。

And, of course, questions around governance and the constituting of a committee of Palestinian technocrats to be overseen by former British Prime Minister Tony Blair.

当然，还有关于治理的问题，以及成立一个由前英国首相托尼·布莱尔监督的巴勒斯坦技术官僚委员会。

I mean, there are there are so many details that have yet to be ironed out, let alone implemented.

我的意思是，有太多细节尚未敲定，更不用说实施了。

And I think these are the key potential sticking points in the coming days and weeks and likely months.

我认为这些是未来几天、几周乃至几个月内关键的潜在症结。

Carol Massar: Mona.

Carol Massar: Mona。

And I think it's fair to say, right, a conflict like this that has gone on not just in the last two years of a war, but it's been going on for a long time between Israel and and and Gaza and Hamas.

我认为公平地说，对吧，像这样的冲突，不仅仅是在过去两年的战争中持续，而是在以色列、加沙和哈马斯之间已经持续了很长时间。

What is Hamas, though, in a world where there is no conflict between Hamas and Israel?

然而，在一个哈马斯与以色列之间没有冲突的世界里，哈马斯又是什么呢？

I mean, they have been designated terrorist groups.

我的意思是，它们已被指定为恐怖组织。

I'm just curious, what is Hamas potentially going forward in?

我只是好奇，哈马斯未来可能会走向何方？

If there's real peace in this region?

如果这个地区真的有和平？

Mona Yacoubian: Well, you can point to a really important issue here.

Mona Yacoubian: 嗯，你在这里可以指出一个非常重要的问题。

I mean, Hamas raison d'etre is resistance, resistance against Israel and against Israeli occupation.

我的意思是，哈马斯存在的理由是抵抗，抵抗以色列和以色列的占领。

Now, presumably, if all of the various elements that would bring actual peace between Israelis and Palestinians come into fruition, then that could indeed sort of, I think, dramatically undermine the rationale for Hamas to continue to exist.

现在，如果所有能够带来以色列人和巴勒斯坦人之间真正和平的各种要素都能实现，那么，我认为这确实可能会极大地削弱哈马斯继续存在的理由。

But I do think it's really important, Carol, to note this agreement talks about and calls for the disarming of Hamas.

但 Carol，我确实认为非常重要的是，这份协议谈到并呼吁解除哈马斯的武装。

It does not call for the destruction of Hamas, as Prime Minister Netanyahu has called for and made a centerpiece of his policies on Gaza.

它并没有像内塔尼亚胡总理所要求的那样，呼吁摧毁哈马斯，后者曾将此作为其加沙政策的核心。

So.

所以。

Carol Massar: Okay.

Carol Massar: 好的。

So that's an important distinction.

所以这是一个重要的区别。

Mona Yacoubian: Correct.

Mona Yacoubian: 正确。

Very much so.

非常正确。

I mean, we're already seeing reporting that as Israeli troops withdraw from limited areas of Gaza, there is reporting that Hamas is filling in and is taking over.

我的意思是，我们已经看到报道称，随着以色列军队从加沙有限区域撤离，有报道称哈马斯正在填补空缺并接管。

And so, again, this just gives you a sense of how daunting this challenge is going to be going forward.

所以，这再次让你感受到未来这项挑战将是多么艰巨。

Carol Massar: And Mara, you have about you have more than 30 years of experience in the Middle East and North Africa.

Carol Massar: Mara，你在中东和北非地区有超过30年的经验。

With that in mind, what do the next weeks and months, years look like?

考虑到这一点，未来几周、几个月、几年会是怎样？

Mona Yacoubian: Well, I think immediately what's going to need to happen is more meat on the bones of exactly how it is that this agreement that all of these various leaders just signed off on in Sharm el Sheikh.

Mona Yacoubian: 嗯，我认为眼前需要立即发生的是，沙姆沙伊赫所有这些领导人刚刚签署的这份协议，其具体实施细节需要更加充实。

How will those how will those points actually be implemented?

这些要点将如何实际实施？

So I think the first order of the day is going to be figuring out how to establish security on the ground as Israeli troops withdraw and in not at all clear how that's going to happen.

所以我认为当务之急是弄清楚如何在以色列军队撤离后在当地建立安全，目前还不清楚这将如何实现。

What are the mechanisms by which Hamas is going to be disarmed and to whom?

哈马斯将通过何种机制解除武装，并向谁交出武器？

Whom will they give their arms to?

他们会将武器交给谁？

And then, of course, the other key element of any post-conflict stabilization is governance.

当然，任何冲突后稳定的另一个关键要素是治理。

You've got to have governance.

必须有治理。

You've got to have authorities on the ground.

必须在当地建立权力机构。

Who will they be?

他们会是谁？

How will that structure be set up?

那个结构将如何建立？

Those are really critical questions.

这些都是非常关键的问题。

And we're a long ways from understanding what the details are that will govern those various arrangements.

我们距离理解管理这些各种安排的细节还有很长的路要走。

Carol Massar: There's a disarmed Hamas just to kind of tie this up to do they want a Gaza, a Palestinian state that actually thrives?

Carol Massar: 如果哈马斯被解除武装，只是为了把这事做个了结，那么他们想要一个真正繁荣的加沙，一个巴勒斯坦国吗？

Mona Yacoubian: Presumably they have called in and would be in agreement with that.

Mona Yacoubian: 据推测他们已经呼吁并会同意这一点。

But as always, the devil is in the details.

但一如既往，魔鬼藏在细节里。

For example, they are saying that Israel must withdraw 100% from Gaza.

例如，他们说以色列必须100%撤出加沙。

That is not envisioned by the plan.

这在计划中并未设想。

And ultimately, what does a Palestinian state look like?

最终，一个巴勒斯坦国会是什么样子？

Is there a way to actually build a Palestinian state from the current set of circumstances that we see on the ground?

在当前我们看到的实地情况下，有没有办法真正建立一个巴勒斯坦国？

That is also going to be extraordinarily difficult as long as these questions remain.

只要这些问题仍然存在，那也将异常困难。

There will be space for resistance.

将会有抵抗的空间。

There will be space for groups like Hamas or its successor to cause trouble.

像哈马斯或其继任者这样的团体将会有制造麻烦的空间。

Carol Massar: Yeah, it's fascinating.

Carol Massar: 是的，这很引人入胜。

Right.

没错。

And you talk about, you know, the building of a Palestinian state and then there's just the actual build of a land that has just been devastated.

你谈到，你知道，建立一个巴勒斯坦国，然后还有对一片刚刚被摧毁的土地进行实际建设。

So much more to come.

还有很多事情要做。

And I know we'll lean on you in the future because I'm sure there'll be more to come.

我知道我们未来会依靠你，因为我相信还会有更多事情发生。

Mona Yacoubian, she's director and senior adviser, Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Mona Yacoubian，她是战略与国际研究中心中东项目主任兼高级顾问。

Fastenal 财报与工业部门表现

Hey, in just a moment, we're going to talk a little bit about earnings, barely, because we've got fashion all day reported this morning and stocks been under some pressure.

嘿，稍后我们简单谈谈财报，因为Fastenal今天早上公布了财报，股价一直承受压力。

Bailey Lipschultz: Been under some pressure.

Bailey Lipschultz: 确实承受了一些压力。

And this is a big bellwether when we look at the industrial space.

当我们审视工业领域时，这是一个重要的风向标。

So one of the first out of the gate, down more than 5%.

所以它是最早公布财报的公司之一，股价下跌超过5%。

Disappointing so far.

到目前为止令人失望。

Carol Massar: Yeah.

Carol Massar: 是的。

Curious to see what the CEO is going to say, who will join us in just a moment.

很好奇首席执行官会说什么，他稍后会加入我们。

And we're going to get into what you need to know about opening his latest deal.

我们将深入了解你需要知道的关于他最新交易的开放内容。

First up, though, let's get a check on the trade once again on this Monday and your top stories.

不过，首先，让我们在这个周一再次关注贸易和你的头条新闻。

Amy Morris: Here again, Amy Morse in for Charlie Pallet.

Amy Morris: Amy Morse 再次代替 Charlie Pallet 在这里。

Thanks so much, Carol.

非常感谢，Carol。

Stocks are recouping some of those losses after President Trump and senior officials backpedaled on tariff threats against China, signaling a willingness to negotiate.

在特朗普总统和高级官员收回对中国关税威胁、表示愿意谈判后，股市正在收复部分失地。

We checked those markets for you all day long here at Bloomberg.

我们在彭博社全天为您关注这些市场。

The S&P 500 now up 1.6%, NASDAQ up 2.2%, and the Dow up 1.4%.

标普500指数目前上涨1.6%，纳斯达克指数上涨2.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨1.4%。

And the dash for gold is persistent.

对黄金的追逐持续不断。

Gold futures now 3% higher.

黄金期货目前上涨3%。

Bond markets are closed for the holiday open.

债券市场因假期休市。

OpenAI signed a multiyear agreement with Broadcom to collaborate on custom chips and networking equipment marking the latest step in the startup's ambitious plans to add computing infrastructure.

OpenAI 与博通签署了一项多年协议，将合作开发定制芯片和网络设备，标志着这家初创公司在增加计算基础设施方面的雄心勃勃计划迈出了最新一步。

Broadcom shares now 10% higher bank earnings.

博通股价目前上涨10%。银行财报。

Also in focus this week, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup all set to report their third quarter earnings tomorrow for on Demand news 24 hours a day.

本周焦点还包括摩根大通、高盛和花旗集团，它们都定于明天公布第三季度财报，全天24小时提供按需新闻。

Subscribe to Bloomberg News now wherever you get your podcasts.

现在就在您收听播客的任何地方订阅彭博新闻。

I'm Amy Morris.

我是 Amy Morris。

That's the Bloomberg business splash.

那是彭博商业快讯。

We go back now to Bloomberg Businessweek Daily with Carol Massar and Bailey Lipschultz.

现在我们回到 Carol Massar 和 Bailey Lipschultz 主持的《彭博商业周刊每日》。

Carol Massar: All right.

Carol Massar: 好的。

So appreciate it.

非常感谢。

Amy Morrison there for Charlie Pallet.

Amy Morrison 代替 Charlie Pallet 在那里。

Well, Big John is a big market story as well today, once again driving the trade, pushing semi as a group semiconductors that is higher today led by Broadcom whose stock jumped after opening.

嗯，今天 Big John 也是一个重要的市场故事，再次推动了交易，将半导体作为一个整体推高，其中博通在开盘后股价飙升。

I agreed to buy the company's custom chips and networking equipment in a multi-year deal, part of an ambitious plan by the startup to add AI infrastructure.

我同意在一项多年协议中购买该公司的定制芯片和网络设备，这是这家初创公司增加人工智能基础设施的雄心勃勃计划的一部分。

So we wanted to just dig a bit deeper into it.

所以我们想深入挖掘一下。

Amy talked about it.

Amy 谈到了它。

We certainly are seeing it playing out in the market.

我们当然看到它正在市场中发挥作用。

Got a great voice though, Bailey to walk us through it, One of my favorite people I will say really must, he said Mandeep Singh name about five times on the call this morning.

不过，Bailey 有一个很棒的声音来为我们讲解，我最喜欢的人之一，我得说，他今天早上在电话会议上提了大约五次 Mandeep Singh 的名字。

He really was like, We need to get him to do so.

他真的就像是，我们需要让他这么做。

Perfect timing.

时机完美。

And that's why we're joined now by Bloomberg Intelligence, global head of Technology Research, Mandeep Singh here in the studio.

这就是为什么我们现在邀请到彭博情报全球技术研究主管 Mandeep Singh 来到演播室。

Mandeep, walk us through with this deal because it feels like every other day Openai has a new agreement with some chip manufacturer and the terms are slightly different, whether it's an ownership stake or front buying chips.

Mandeep，请为我们详细解释这项交易，因为感觉 OpenAI 几乎每天都与某个芯片制造商签订新协议，而且条款略有不同，无论是股权还是预购芯片。

What's up with this Broadcom pact?

博通的这项协议是怎么回事？

Mandeep Singh: I mean, they are really going after, you know, data center capacity right now.

Mandeep Singh: 我的意思是，他们现在确实在追求数据中心容量。

And the way they are doing it is by diversifying their supplier base.

他们这样做的方式是使其供应商基础多样化。

So it's not just relying on and really average everyone does right now for compute, but really leveraging Broadcom, which is a custom silicon maker.

所以不仅仅是依赖于现在每个人都普遍使用的计算方式，而是真正利用博通，它是一个定制芯片制造商。

So think about, you know, NVIDIA giving you a generic chip where you can run your A.I. workloads, whether it's training or inferencing.

所以，想象一下，NVIDIA 给你一个通用芯片，你可以在上面运行你的 AI 工作负载，无论是训练还是推理。

Custom silicon is used just for, you know, the specific workflow that Openai has to run for its proprietary models.

定制芯片仅用于 OpenAI 为其专有模型运行的特定工作流程。

So no one else has any benefit of using a custom silicon because Openai is not looking to sell its own chips to compete with Nvidia, it's looking to use its chips for its own chip app or any other custom app that it has developed in-house.

所以，没有其他人能从使用定制芯片中受益，因为 OpenAI 并不是想出售自己的芯片来与英伟达竞争，它只是想将自己的芯片用于自己的芯片应用或任何其他内部开发的定制应用。

And Google is a prime example of what a custom silicon looks like because they have their own TTPs, which when you compare to Nvidia GPUs, is more customized in nature, but it does a terrific job of running YouTube or any other AI workloads that Google wants to run on its chips.

谷歌就是一个定制芯片的典型例子，因为他们有自己的 TTPs，与英伟达的 GPU (图形处理器: 一种专门用于处理图像和视频输出的芯片) 相比，它在本质上更具定制性，但在运行 YouTube 或谷歌希望在其芯片上运行的任何其他 AI 工作负载方面表现出色。

So that's what Open your Eyes doing.

这就是 OpenAI 正在做的事情。

And it has a tremendous cost advantage because it costs a lot lower than the Nvidia price tag of $30,000 on average for a GPU TPU (张量处理单元: 谷歌开发的一种专门用于机器学习的定制芯片) tensor processing unit.

它具有巨大的成本优势，因为它比英伟达平均3万美元的 GPU TPU 张量处理单元价格低得多。

Carol Massar: I should make sure I understand.

Carol Massar: 我应该确保我理解了。

What's interesting though is I do feel like there's this move trend to get.

不过有趣的是，我确实觉得有一种趋势是获取。

Chips that maybe don't cost as much, maybe don't use as much power, but do exactly what we need.

芯片可能成本不高，功耗也不高，但能完全满足我们的需求。

Is that fair?

这公平吗？

Mandeep Singh: Yeah.

Mandeep Singh: 是的。

I mean, look, one bar at one gigawatt requires up to 500 to 600000 accelerator chips.

我的意思是，你看，一吉瓦的功率需要多达50万到60万个加速器芯片。

So we're talking point five, 2.6 million chips for one gigawatt data center.

所以我们谈论的是一个吉瓦数据中心需要50万到260万个芯片。

Imagine if you can save up to $5,000 how it multiplies, you know, in terms of cost savings.

想象一下，如果你能节省高达5000美元，那么在成本节约方面，它会如何倍增。

The real constraint right now is power.

现在真正的限制是电力。

It's not as if you get a cheaper chip and you're all good.

并不是说你得到一个更便宜的芯片就万事大吉了。

You still need the performance per watt, which is why it really is so good, because it gives you 5 to 10 x more performance per watt than the competitors, right?

你仍然需要每瓦性能，这就是为什么它如此出色，因为它提供比竞争对手高出5到10倍的每瓦性能，对吗？

Bailey Lipschultz: Exactly.

Bailey Lipschultz: 没错。

I want to show there's a graphic.

我想展示一张图表。

And one of our producers made it, Elizabeth said.

我们的一位制作人制作了它，伊丽莎白说。

Right.

没错。

And I think, you know, we've all been looking at this.

我想，我们都一直在关注这个。

It's about open AI and all of the companies that they're doing deals with.

这是关于 OpenAI 以及他们正在与之进行交易的所有公司。

And it's not even been a month, but they have done deals with and Vedere Oracle core.

甚至还不到一个月，他们就已经与 Vedere Oracle core 达成了交易。

We've AMD now Broadcom.

我们现在有 AMD 和博通。

And again, it's just late September to mid-October.

再说一次，这只是从9月底到10月中旬。

So is that what this is, is just giving them a smarter supply chain and having access to what they need?

那么这就是说，这只是给他们一个更智能的供应链，并让他们能够获得所需的一切吗？

Is it as simple as that?

就这么简单吗？

Mandeep Singh: Well, it's not as simple because they're going across the stacks.

Mandeep Singh: 嗯，没那么简单，因为他们正在跨越整个技术栈。

Think of, you know, how air applications are deployed.

想想，你知道，航空应用程序是如何部署的。

You need the chip, you need the infrastructure, you need the cloud, because that's where you're doing your inferencing.

你需要芯片、基础设施、云，因为那才是你进行推理的地方。

So they've cut deals with different parts of the stack here, not just the chipmakers, not just the power guys, but also the cloud guys.

所以他们在这里与技术栈的不同部分达成了协议，不只是芯片制造商，不只是电力公司，还有云服务提供商。

So from that perspective, because we've right core, we've.

所以从这个角度来看，因为我们有核心，我们有。

Bailey Lipschultz: Exactly.

Bailey Lipschultz: 没错。

Mandeep Singh: And look, I mean, to my mind, they are going aggressive in terms of adding more capacity than they probably need because they think if they get market share, they get the companies or users to use their product, then they will be able to monetize and probably drive some companies out of, you know, competing with them because of the scale involved here.

Mandeep Singh: 而且你看，我的意思是，在我看来，他们在增加容量方面非常积极，可能超出了他们的实际需求，因为他们认为如果能获得市场份额，让公司或用户使用他们的产品，那么他们就能实现盈利，并且可能因为涉及的规模而将一些与他们竞争的公司淘汰出局。

Bailey Lipschultz: Well, are are I anthropic striking similar deals or is this the open air show?

Bailey Lipschultz: 那么，是 Anthropic 正在达成类似的交易，还是这只是 OpenAI 的独角戏？

Mandeep Singh: I think right now HCI must be thinking and they are doing a $20 billion deal with some private financing.

Mandeep Singh: 我认为现在 HCI 肯定在考虑，他们正在通过一些私人融资进行一项200亿美元的交易。

But look, when open air announces a ten gigawatt deal, we're talking 500 billion, not 20 billion anymore.

但你看，当 OpenAI 宣布一项十吉瓦的交易时，我们谈论的是5000亿美元，而不是200亿美元了。

So it's the numbers are getting bigger and bigger.

所以数字越来越大。

Bailey Lipschultz: What is opening I in this moment in time on October 13, the most important company in the world?

Bailey Lipschultz: 在10月13日的此刻，OpenAI 是世界上最重要的公司吗？

Mandeep Singh: Well, when I look at Mag seven, you're Broadcom is not in Max seven.

Mandeep Singh: 嗯，当我看到“七巨头”时，博通不在“七巨头”之列。

It's a $1.6 trillion company.

这是一家1.6万亿美元的公司。

You know, open air is probably you know, it's up 10% because of this.

你知道，OpenAI 可能，你知道，因此上涨了10%。

I mean, also the whole space sold off on Friday.

我的意思是，整个板块在周五也下跌了。

So I don't want to downplay that too much.

所以我不想过分淡化这一点。

But like they're not even public, They're not even profitable as much as we know.

但就像他们甚至没有上市，据我们所知，他们甚至没有盈利。

Right.

没错。

No, I mean, look, I.

不，我的意思是，你看，我。

So right now, their gross margins would be negative if you factor in their training costs.

所以现在，如果考虑到他们的训练成本，他们的毛利率将是负数。

Inferencing wise, yes, they are making some money.

就推理而言，是的，他们正在赚钱。

But clearly, if you include everything and just you compare it with Google, Google has an annual cost of revenue of around 100 billion that powers all of their apps.

但显然，如果你把所有东西都算进去，并将其与谷歌进行比较，谷歌每年约1000亿美元的收入成本支撑着他们所有的应用程序。

You know, Google, YouTube, everything that they run, open their eyes.

你知道，谷歌、YouTube，他们运行的一切，都让人大开眼界。

Compute costs are probably north of 20 billion right now.

目前计算成本可能超过200亿美元。

And if they're adding 26 gigawatt more capacity, we are talking, you know, compute cost to multiply at least 25 fold.

如果他们再增加26吉瓦的容量，我们谈论的是计算成本至少增加25倍。

So from that perspective, you have to ask yourself, yeah, how much incremental revenue do you want to see from open air to justify this, you know, 1 trillion, potentially $1 trillion in compute infrastructure spend.

所以从这个角度来看，你必须问自己，是的，你需要从 OpenAI 看到多少增量收入来证明这1万亿，可能高达1万亿美元的计算基础设施支出是合理的。

And that's where Google's infrastructure is so efficient because just, you know, less than five gigawatt of compute gets you to over 400 billion in revenue.

这就是谷歌基础设施效率如此之高的原因，因为仅不到5吉瓦的计算能力就能带来超过4000亿美元的收入。

That's pretty cool to say the least, in a non financial analysis terminology.

至少可以说，以非金融分析术语来说，这相当酷。

Wendy, thank you.

Wendy，谢谢。

Always a gem.

总是一颗宝石。

Bloomberg Intelligence Global head of Technology research Mandeep Singh.

彭博情报全球技术研究主管 Mandeep Singh。

Fastenal 财报与经济活动

Carol Massar: I spent in the build out is one read on the US economy and certainly the tech economy now to another great read barely on US economic activity and we're talking about the industrial supplier Fastenal which reported earnings earlier this morning and shares I think they were the worst performing the S&P 500 at one point.

Carol Massar: 支出用于建设是衡量美国经济，当然也是科技经济的一个指标。现在我们几乎没有其他关于美国经济活动的重要解读了，我们正在谈论工业供应商 Fastenal，它今天早上早些时候公布了财报，其股价一度是标普500指数中表现最差的。

Bailey Lipschultz: Yeah, right now down about 6%.

Bailey Lipschultz: 是的，目前下跌约6%。

And keep in mind, this is a $50 billion company.

请记住，这是一家500亿美元的公司。

So this is no small, small fish in the again, in the industrial space.

因此，这在工业领域绝非小角色。

One of the first reads we get every quarterly earnings season missing Wall Street views, broadly speaking.

可以说，每个季度财报季我们最早看到的一份报告就未能达到华尔街的预期。

So interesting.

所以很有趣。

What's driving that?

是什么推动了这一切？

Well, let's ask the CEO.

嗯，我们问问首席执行官。

Daniel Flores is with us.

Daniel Flores 和我们在一起。

He is chief executive officer of Fastenal and he joins us from Winona, Minnesota.

他是 Fastenal 的首席执行官，他从明尼苏达州维诺纳加入我们。

Dan, it is great to have you back with us.

Dan，很高兴你回到我们这里。

Talk to us about the quarter, because it does seem like analysts were noting that the pricing during the quarter was weaker than expected and marks the second straight quarter of softer pricing.

跟我们谈谈这个季度，因为分析师们似乎注意到本季度的定价弱于预期，这标志着连续第二个季度定价疲软。

And maybe that's why we're seeing the stock down.

也许这就是我们看到股价下跌的原因。

What you want to say to investors.

你想对投资者说什么。

Daniel Flores: Well, part of the reason our stocks are down is this price to perfection.

Daniel Flores: 嗯，我们股价下跌的部分原因是这种“价格完美”的预期。

If you look at what it's done year to date and where the multiple has gone.

如果你看看它今年迄今的表现以及市盈率的变化。

But, you know, we had we had a really good quarter.

但是，你知道，我们有一个非常好的季度。

We had we had a double digit quarter.

我们有一个两位数增长的季度。

We hadn't seen that for a couple of years.

我们已经好几年没看到这种情况了。

Double digit growth, sorry, and pleased with the outcome.

两位数增长，抱歉，对结果感到满意。

One of the one of the challenges we had this year was there's a lot of fluidity around tariffs and what it means for pricing.

我们今年面临的挑战之一是关税方面存在很多不确定性，以及这对定价意味着什么。

And we will raise price.

我们将提高价格。

To address costs in our customers supply chain.

为了解决客户供应链中的成本问题。

We we really don't want to raise more than that because we believe it impairs our ability to grow as fast as we'd like.

我们真的不想提高更多，因为我们认为这会损害我们实现期望增长速度的能力。

And, you know, coming into the quarter, we estimated, you know, x four for impact of pricing came a little bit less.

而且，你知道，进入本季度，我们估计定价影响为 x 四，结果略低于预期。

We lowered our number for the fourth, fourth quarter.

我们下调了第四季度的数字。

But the most important aspect is on a price cost basis, we are neutral and that's what we aspire to be.

但最重要的是，在价格成本基础上，我们是中性的，这也是我们所追求的。

We'd rather just grow.

我们宁愿只求增长。

Bailey Lipschultz: Mm hmm.

Bailey Lipschultz: 嗯哼。

And Dan, to your point, fast, and even with the pullback today, returning 22% year to date, so outperforming the S&P 500 and comparable stocks in the industrial space.

Dan，正如你所说，Fastenal，即使今天有所回调，年初至今仍上涨22%，跑赢了标普500指数和工业领域的同类股票。

But just one more question on pricing.

但关于定价，还有一个问题。

In terms of expectations, Would you want to raise pricing?

就预期而言，你们会想提高定价吗？

Like do you get the sense that consumers and customers would push back just given how you've been shifting into bigger customers spending much more money?

你是否觉得，考虑到你们一直在转向那些花费更多资金的大客户，消费者和客户会反弹？

Daniel Flores: Yeah.

Daniel Flores: 是的。

Customers always push back on pricing.

客户总是对定价提出异议。

Doesn't matter the size.

大小无关紧要。

Customer We will.

客户 我们会的。

We are having conversations with our customer.

我们正在与客户进行对话。

We will be doing some price increases in Q4.

我们将在第四季度进行一些价格上涨。

I suspect we'll be doing some price increases as we move into 2026.

我怀疑我们进入2026年时也会进行一些价格上涨。

But again, our first discussion with the customer.

但再说一次，我们与客户的第一次讨论。

They understand it.

他们理解。

They're willing to move on price.

他们愿意在价格上让步。

Our first discussion is always what are alternatives to this product?

我们的第一次讨论总是关于这个产品的替代品是什么？

That maybe doesn't mean we have to raise your prices 5%.

这可能不意味着我们必须将你的价格提高5%。

Maybe it means it only has to be two, and we'd rather go to two because that's what that's what a supply chain partner does.

也许这意味着只需要提高2%，我们宁愿选择2%，因为供应链合作伙伴就是这样做的。

Carol Massar: Well, then how did tariffs fit into this, just given that, according to analysts across the street, when we look at certain industries now is when we're going to see tariffs showing up in the third quarter in guidance as a it as it relates to 2026.

Carol Massar: 那么关税是如何融入其中的呢？根据华尔街分析师的说法，就某些行业而言，现在我们将在第三季度的指导中看到关税对2026年的影响。

What are you seeing and how are you kind of attacking or addressing any pressures from tariffs?

你看到了什么，以及你如何应对或解决来自关税的任何压力？

关税影响与供应链多元化

Daniel Flores: Yeah.

Daniel Flores: 是的。

So for us, tariffs have been in the in the equation since the early part of the second quarter.

所以对我们来说，关税从第二季度初就已经纳入考量。

A little bit of the first quarter I think in the that the individual that handles pricing.

我认为在第一季度，负责定价的那个人。

Historically, he'll provide us an update once a month.

过去，他会每月向我们提供一次更新。

He'd gotten to the point where he was providing us updates he he was up to a video number of 14 as of July that he was serving out to the field, giving them guidance into what we were seeing in our supply chain.

他已经到了这样的程度：截至七月，他已经向现场提供了14个视频更新，指导他们了解我们在供应链中看到的情况。

And and so we've been adding price as we've gone through the year.

所以我们随着这一年一直在增加价格。

And these have been discussions with customers.

这些都是与客户的讨论。

And I hope that answers your question.

我希望这能回答你的问题。

Carol Massar: No, I think it does.

Carol Massar: 不，我认为它回答了。

But I think the big thing is are you mitigating the impact of tariffs?

但我认为关键是你们是否正在减轻关税的影响？

Are you shifting your supply chain?

你们正在转移供应链吗？

Is the expectation that you can have some kind of knock on effect as it relates to pricing?

是否预期这会对定价产生某种连锁反应？

If we do continue to see threats from the president going after countries like China or others, we are going to talk to one of the members of Levi's management team.

如果我们继续看到总统对中国或其他国家采取威胁行动，我们将与李维斯管理团队的一位成员进行交谈。

And they called out that they had to dial up their expectations for the impact of tariffs from other countries.

他们指出，他们不得不提高对其他国家关税影响的预期。

So how is that impacting when you look at your supply chain and when you look at the potential for pricing impacts in 2026?

那么，当您审视您的供应链以及2026年潜在的定价影响时，这会产生怎样的影响？

Daniel Flores: We've been moving supply chain around the planet in earnest since 2017 2018 timeframe.

Daniel Flores: 自2017年至2018年左右，我们一直在认真地在全球范围内转移供应链。

As our name would imply, we sell a lot of fasteners and most of the fasteners in North America come from either mainland China or Taiwan.

正如我们的名字所暗示的，我们销售大量的紧固件，而北美的大部分紧固件都来自中国大陆或台湾。

And the automotive industry took the production there back in the fifties and sixties, actually took it to Japan and South Korea and it migrated from there.

汽车行业在五六十年代将生产转移到那里，实际上是转移到日本和韩国，然后从那里再迁移。

If I look at our resources, we now have a sourcing team in Shanghai, but we have a sourcing team in Bangkok, we have a sourcing team in northern India and we have work to diversify our supplier base around the planet and a little bit more in North America, but really around the planet.

如果我查看我们的资源，我们现在在上海有一个采购团队，但在曼谷也有一个采购团队，在印度北部也有一个采购团队，我们正在努力使我们的供应商基础在全球范围内多元化，在北美也稍微多一点，但主要是在全球范围内。

So to have diversity in supply so you're not caught off guard by some price change or or a tariff change.

这样在供应方面就有多样性，你就不会因价格变化或关税变化而措手不及。

In addition to that, we've taken supply chains coming in North America, which traditionally came in through the West Coast, the United States, and then we would redistribute from there.

除此之外，我们还将进入北美的供应链，传统上这些供应链通过美国西海岸进入，然后我们再从那里进行再分配。

We have moved supply chains.

我们已经转移了供应链。

So they're bringing product directly into the west coast of Canada or the west coast of Mexico, because those two countries represent about 14% of our revenue.

所以他们直接将产品运到加拿大西海岸或墨西哥西海岸，因为这两个国家约占我们收入的14%。

Now, you bypass the tariff, however, it's more expensive to break shipments down over in Asia and bring them in, but it's a lot less than a tariff.

现在，你绕过了关税，然而，在亚洲拆散货物并运进来会更昂贵，但这比关税要少得多。

Carol Massar: One of the things I want to ask you, you know, you talk about supply chains is the end game.

Carol Massar: 我想问你一件事，你知道，你谈到供应链是最终目标。

Dan, we're talking with Dan Flores.

Dan，我们正在和 Dan Flores 谈话。

He's chief executive officer of Fastenal.

他是 Fastenal 的首席执行官。

Is it about, though, largely reducing your exposure to China, which has been a pretty big one?

但这主要是为了减少你们对中国的风险敞口吗？中国的风险敞口一直相当大。

Daniel Flores: It's reducing our customers exposure to any market, in this case, China and or Taiwan.

Daniel Flores: 这是为了降低我们客户对任何市场的风险敞口，在这种情况下，是中国大陆或台湾。

But the any market that are on the receiving end of some of the political winds and create an unstable supply base for our customer here, it happens to be China another month.

但是任何受到政治风向影响，并为我们客户造成不稳定供应基础的市场，这个月恰好是中国。

It might be a different country, another year it might be a different country is diversifying your supply chain so your eggs are not all in one basket.

下个月可能是另一个国家，明年也可能是另一个国家，关键是使你的供应链多元化，这样你就不会把所有鸡蛋放在一个篮子里。

Be ready.

做好准备。

So whatever our customer.

所以无论我们的客户。

Carol Massar: Yeah, whichever way the winds blow.

Carol Massar: 是的，无论风往哪个方向吹。

Hey, one of the things I want to ask you to speak broadly, the earnings update today, you talked about the industrial environment still sluggish.

嘿，我想问你一件事，广义地说，今天的财报更新，你谈到工业环境仍然低迷。

We've heard similar commentary on this persistent sluggishness elsewhere from manufacturers as well as caution around project delays.

我们也在其他地方听到了制造商对这种持续低迷的类似评论，以及对项目延误的谨慎态度。

At what point does this become something more worrying than just sluggishness?

在哪个点上，这会变得比单纯的低迷更令人担忧？

工业环境与AI影响

Daniel Flores: Well, for us, it's been sluggish since November of 20.2, when we really hit on what the Industrial Institute for Supply Management puts out, the PMI index (采购经理人指数: 衡量制造业和服务业经济活动状况的指标), and that's been sub 50, which really plays into our customer base other than January and February of this year.

Daniel Flores: 嗯，对我们来说，自2022年11月以来，经济一直低迷，当时我们确实触及了工业供应管理协会发布的采购经理人指数，该指数一直低于50，这确实影响了我们的客户群，除了今年1月和2月。

That's been sub 50 since November of 2022.

自2022年11月以来，该指数一直低于50。

So we've been in a sluggish economy for a long time.

所以我们长期处于经济低迷状态。

From our perspective.

从我们的角度来看。

And other than living through the first part of it, where you had customers that were downshifting, what reason our growth is shining through in a different way.

除了经历第一阶段客户下调的情况外，我们的增长以不同的方式脱颖而出。

I think we're executing at a higher level, but B, once you get through that downshifting, now you're just even if your customers are at a subdued level, you can grow in that kind of environment.

我认为我们正在以更高的水平执行，但第二点是，一旦你度过了那个下调阶段，即使你的客户处于低迷水平，你也能在这种环境中实现增长。

And that's what's shining through in our numbers right now.

这就是我们目前数据中闪光的地方。

Carol Massar: All right.

Carol Massar: 好的。

One thing I want to ask you, because as you would imagine, I don't know how much of this is pervasive in your world, but I is like the non-stop conversation that we are having.

我想问你一件事，因为正如你所想象的，我不知道这在你的世界里有多普遍，但人工智能就像我们正在进行的永不停止的对话。

Certainly when it comes to activity and market impact, To what extent is A.I. maybe sucking up the oxygen in the economy?

当然，当涉及到活动和市场影响时，人工智能在多大程度上可能正在吸走经济中的氧气？

Are you seeing any signs of that or your world?

你看到了任何迹象吗，或者在你的世界里？

They're going to still need what you guys supply no matter what's going on with the air spend and enthusiasm.

无论航空支出和热情如何，他们仍然需要你们提供的东西。

Daniel Flores: Well, first off, we have a lot of we have a meaningful improvement in our revenue as relates to things like data centers, because we sell into a wide range of of customer needs and end market needs, whether that is the actual construction.

Daniel Flores: 嗯，首先，我们在数据中心等方面的收入有了显著改善，因为我们销售的产品满足了广泛的客户需求和终端市场需求，无论是实际的建设。

I visited many data centers being built or we have people on site there after it's built.

我参观过许多正在建设的数据中心，或者在数据中心建成后，我们有工作人员在现场。

We're supplying into that facility with things like air handling and maintenance equipment in the case of our customers that sell into that sector.

我们为那些设施提供空气处理和维护设备等，以满足我们向该行业销售的客户的需求。

That's actually a strong business for us right now.

这实际上是我们目前一项强劲的业务。

And then as a organization, we're we're increasingly making use of AI in our own business and how we go to market and how we help our employees be more efficient, what they do.

然后作为一个组织，我们越来越多地在自己的业务中利用人工智能，以及我们如何进入市场，以及我们如何帮助员工提高工作效率。

Carol Massar: And then about 45 seconds here with in with keeping in mind data center construction, where are those products sourced from?

Carol Massar: 那么，考虑到数据中心建设，这些产品是从哪里采购的？

Are those also heavily sourced from China and exposed to tariffs?

这些产品是否也大量来自中国并受到关税影响？

Are they different supply chain altogether?

它们的供应链完全不同吗？

Daniel Flores: They're you know, they're mostly a different supply source, but it depends on the component.

Daniel Flores: 你知道，它们大部分是不同的供应来源，但这取决于组件。

If it's facility maintenance type of products, they're coming from anywhere on the globe.

如果是设施维护类的产品，它们可能来自全球任何地方。

And so they're they're subject to the same type of issues that any product would have.

因此，它们会受到任何产品都会遇到的相同类型问题的影响。

But a lot of the components I know a lot of the manufacturers that we sell into, I visited one about a year ago in Michigan where they were purposely avoiding China and they're selling directly into the data centers.

但我知道很多我们销售给的制造商，大约一年前我参观了密歇根州的一家，他们故意避开中国，直接销售给数据中心。

Carol Massar: All right.

Carol Massar: 好的。

They're going to yell at me.

他们会冲我喊的。

But 20 circuits you've been at fast enough for a long time.

但是20个电路，你已经足够快地运行了很长时间。

You've seen different cycles.

你见过不同的周期。

How do you describe this one?

你如何描述这个？

And again, just got about 20 seconds, if you could be very quickly, very quick.

再一次，只剩下大约20秒了，如果你能非常快，非常快地回答。

Daniel Flores: Oh, you know, you add in the fact that, you know, similar we saw in 18, but odd with the fact of it's just something I'm fluid and and and there's so many things that occur from week to week, month to month that are outside the norm.

Daniel Flores: 哦，你知道，你还要加上这样一个事实，你知道，我们看到18年也有类似情况，但奇怪的是，我只是觉得有些事情变化莫测，每周、每月都有很多超出常规的事情发生。

But the fundamentals still work.

但基本面仍然有效。

All right.

好的。

So serve your customer at a high level.

所以要高水平地服务你的客户。

You grow your business.

你发展你的业务。

Carol Massar: I love talking with you.

Carol Massar: 我喜欢和你聊天。

Dan Florence, CEO of Fastenal.

Fastenal 首席执行官 Dan Florence。

When we come back, another view of the C-suite, Levi, CFO, stopping by.

当我们回来时，将有另一位高管的观点，李维斯的首席财务官将到访。

We'll talk about retail and the consumer when Bloomberg Businessweek Deli continues.

当《彭博商业周刊每日》继续播出时，我们将讨论零售和消费者。

市场收盘与企业新闻快讯

Amy Morris: It's 240 on Wall Street.

Amy Morris: 华尔街时间2点40分。

I'm Amy Morris.

我是 Amy Morris。

Wall Street traders lifted stocks as the U.S. and China signaled willingness to keep trade negotiations alive.

华尔街交易员推高股市，因为中美两国表示愿意保持贸易谈判的活力。

Middle East tensions cooled while the Israeli powered ahead.

中东紧张局势降温，而以色列则继续前进。

We do check markets for you all day long here at Bloomberg.

我们在彭博社全天为您关注市场。

The S&P 500 up 1.6%, NASDAQ up 2.2%.

标普500指数上涨1.6%，纳斯达克指数上涨2.2%。

The Dow up 1.3%.

道琼斯工业平均指数上涨1.3%。

Bond markets are closed for the holiday.

债券市场因假期休市。

Jp morgan Chase will funnel one and a half trillion dollars into industries that bolster U.S. economic security and resiliency over the next ten years.

摩根大通将在未来十年内向那些增强美国经济安全和韧性的行业投入1.5万亿美元。

The campaign will invest in companies and hire bankers and other professionals in sectors such as rare earth minerals, defense, aerospace and energy technologies.

这项行动将投资于稀土矿物、国防、航空航天和能源技术等领域的公司，并招聘银行家和其他专业人士。

First Brands Groups CEO Patrick James has resigned as the company faces an investigation over its past use of various financing instruments, including allegations that some collateral was pledged more than once and that as much as $2.3 billion has, quote, simply vanished.

First Brands Group 首席执行官 Patrick James 已辞职，因为该公司正面临对其过去使用各种融资工具的调查，其中包括一些抵押品被多次质押以及高达23亿美元“凭空消失”的指控。

James will be replaced by Charles Moore as interim CEO and beyond.

James 将由 Charles Moore 接替，担任临时首席执行官及更长期职务。

Beyond Meat tumbled after the plant based protein producer said nearly all creditors had accepted a debt swap that will lead to a substantial dilution of shareholders.

Beyond Meat 股价暴跌，此前这家植物性蛋白质生产商表示，几乎所有债权人都已接受一项债务置换，这将导致股东股权大幅稀释。

The stock now 45% lower.

该股目前下跌45%。

The shares had already declined 47% this year through Friday.

截至周五，该股今年已下跌47%。

More on demand news 24 hours a day.

全天24小时提供更多按需新闻。

Subscribe to Bloomberg News now.

立即订阅彭博新闻。

Wherever you get your podcasts, I may be more as that's a Bloomberg Business flash.

无论你在哪里收听播客，我都可能更多地出现在彭博商业快讯中。

Now back to Bloomberg Businessweek Daily with Carol Massar and Bailey Lipschultz.

现在回到 Carol Massar 和 Bailey Lipschultz 主持的《彭博商业周刊每日》。

Carol Massar: All right.

Carol Massar: 好的。

So appreciate it.

非常感谢。

Amy Morris in there for Charlie Pellet.

Amy Morris 代替 Charlie Pellet 在那里。

Levi Strauss 财报与消费者趋势

All right, folks, Levi Strauss shares they are trading slightly lower today after dropping as much as 14% on Friday.

各位，李维斯的股价今天小幅走低，此前周五曾下跌多达14%。

This is after the company's upgraded earnings guidance still fell short of higher investor expectations following the stock's more than 40% rally heading into that earnings print.

这是在该公司上调盈利指引后，仍未能达到投资者更高的预期，此前该股在财报发布前已上涨超过40%。

Now, one key disappointment, at least according to analysts out on the street, is earnings growth, failing to match the pace of sales expansion due to tariff and distribution costs.

现在，至少根据华尔街分析师的说法，一个主要的失望点是盈利增长未能与销售扩张的速度相匹配，原因在于关税和分销成本。

Meantime, I got to say, Bayley, you did have to count raising its price target on the stock to 26 from 22 a share.

同时，我不得不说，Bailey，你确实不得不计算将其股票目标价从每股22美元上调至26美元。

And they've got their berating, yes, staying bullish.

他们受到了指责，是的，但仍然看涨。

And you look at the street 13 analysts, ten of them buys.

你看华尔街13位分析师，其中10位建议买入。

So is it a sell the news event priced to perfection.

那么，这是一次“利好出尽”的事件，股价已达到完美定价吗？

We see.

我们拭目以待。

Bailey Lipschultz: It's a really good point.

Bailey Lipschultz: 这是一个非常好的观点。

So let's see what one of the companies members of the C-suite have to say from it.

所以让我们听听该公司高管层的一位成员对此有何看法。

Singh is with us, chief financial and growth officer at Levi Strauss.

Singh 和我们在一起，他是李维斯公司的首席财务官兼增长官。

He joins us from our San Francisco bureau.

他从我们旧金山办事处加入我们。

I mean, it's so good to have you here with us.

我的意思是，很高兴你和我们在一起。

How are you and how is the consumer doing?

你怎么样？消费者情况如何？

Harmeet Singh: Well, thanks for having me, Carolyn Bailey.

Harmeet Singh: 谢谢你们邀请我，Carolyn Bailey。

It's great to be here again.

很高兴再次来到这里。

You know, we had a real strong quarter, four consecutive quarters of high single digit growth and record gross margins, as well as the fact that we were able to raise our full year guidance by as well as gross margin and EPS expectations.

你知道，我们度过了一个非常强劲的季度，连续四个季度实现高个位数增长和创纪录的毛利率，同时我们还上调了全年业绩指引以及毛利率和每股收益预期。

Overall, as a company, we are a stronger and higher performing company defined by accelerated growth, expanding margins and higher return on invested capital.

总的来说，作为一家公司，我们是一家更强大、表现更好的公司，其特点是加速增长、利润率扩大和投资资本回报率提高。

To your question about the consumer, the consumer is largely being resilient.

关于消费者的问题，消费者大体上表现出韧性。

You know, our products are really well segmented.

你知道，我们的产品细分得非常好。

You know, we have blue tag, which we which is our premium high pinnacle product, and that's doing well.

你知道，我们有蓝标产品，那是我们的高端巅峰产品，表现很好。

We've introduced that in the U.S. So far, so good.

我们已在美国推出，到目前为止一切顺利。

We have a Red Dead product that is basically marketed to consumers who earn between 100,000 and over.

我们有一款 Red Dead 产品，主要面向年收入在10万美元及以上的消费者。

And that's, you know, based on our results, really done well.

而且，你知道，根据我们的结果，确实做得很好。

And then we have, you know, signature product sold through Wal-Mart that again, had a banner, Coca-Cola.

然后我们还有，你知道，通过沃尔玛销售的标志性产品，再次，有一个横幅，可口可乐。

And that's for, you know, lower income consumer.

那是针对，你知道，低收入消费者的。

So consumer strength really strong.

所以消费者实力非常强劲。

That's why we were able to raise the full year guidance.

这就是我们能够上调全年业绩指引的原因。

And our product pipeline hasn't been stronger.

我们的产品线从未如此强大。

Now, if you go outside the U.S. and international business was up in the high single digit.

现在，如果你看看美国以外的市场，国际业务实现了高个位数增长。

And so Asia had a strong core consumer, strong Europe had a decent quarter consumer in a better place, and so is Latin America.

因此，亚洲拥有强大的核心消费者群体，欧洲的消费者在季度表现上也有所改善，拉丁美洲亦是如此。

Carol Massar: Well, I'm just going to lay it out for you.

Carol Massar: 嗯，我只是想把话说清楚。

I think I bought my first pair of Levi's in a long time, just a couple of months ago.

我想我很久没买李维斯了，就在几个月前买了第一条。

My daughter, who's 22, so much younger than me, has been buying Levi's for a while.

我女儿22岁，比我年轻得多，她已经买李维斯一段时间了。

So barely.

所以几乎没有。

I mean, they're back.

我的意思是，他们回来了。

I go into the store in downtown, in in the village, and yeah, it's packed.

我走进市中心、村里的商店，是的，人山人海。

Bailey Lipschultz: Or you get a partnership with Beyoncé.

Bailey Lipschultz: 或者你和碧昂丝合作。

All the marketing you guys are spending in terms of targeting both young and older generations.

你们在营销上投入的精力，旨在同时面向年轻一代和年长一代。

But Harmeet, I want to ask about tariffs.

但 Harmeet，我想问问关税。

So Levi expects tariffs from China about 30%, but increase expectations to 20% from the rest of the world.

因此，李维斯预计来自中国的关税约为30%，但将来自世界其他地区的预期提高到20%。

Where are you sourcing your jeans materials?

你们的牛仔裤材料是从哪里采购的？

Is it more are you more exposed to that doubling in terms of are you getting materials from Vietnam in place of China?

就你们是否从越南而不是中国采购材料而言，你们是否更容易受到这种翻倍增长的影响？

Levi's 供应链与品牌战略

Harmeet Singh: Yeah.

Harmeet Singh: 是的。

So overall, we're taking a holistic approach as we are able to offset the tariff impact.

所以总的来说，我们正在采取一种整体方法，因为我们能够抵消关税影响。

You know, as you think about this year, we raised guidance in the top line and the bottom line and gross margin.

你知道，当你考虑今年的时候，我们上调了营收、净利润和毛利率的指引。

So, you know, we've been able to withstand that.

所以，你知道，我们已经能够承受住这一点。

Your specific question barely resource about a 1% We import into the U.S. from China, a little over a percent from India.

你的具体问题几乎没有资源，我们从中国进口到美国的商品约占1%，从印度进口的略高于1%。

Most of and Vietnam is in the mid to high single digit.

越南大部分处于中高个位数。

So most of our imports are from the Southeast Asian countries think Bangladesh, Pakistan and and the rest of Asia.

所以我们的大部分进口来自东南亚国家，比如孟加拉国、巴基斯坦和亚洲其他地区。

The way we think about our supply chain, it's fairly well diversified.

我们看待供应链的方式是，它相当多元化。

We import from about 20 countries into the U.S. 60% of our business is outside the U.S.

我们从大约20个国家进口到美国，我们60%的业务在美国以外。

And so we are well positioned to mitigate and offset tariffs in the way we are thinking about the holistic approach, given that volume is driving a big piece of our, you know, revenue momentum and we have tenured vendor relationships, we're working with our vendors, we're looking at different cost efficiencies across our organization as well as, you know, being very thoughtful about pricing.

因此，我们有能力以我们正在考虑的整体方法来减轻和抵消关税，考虑到销量是我们收入增长动力的重要组成部分，并且我们拥有长期的供应商关系，我们正在与供应商合作，我们正在关注整个组织的不同成本效率，以及，你知道，对定价非常谨慎。

Carol Massar: So let me just ask you, though, you guys, did you know, you mentioned you raised your full year outlook.

Carol Massar: 那么我只想问你，你们，你知道吗，你提到你们上调了全年展望。

You did warn that tariffs are starting to bite profit profitability to measure by gross margins improve.

你们确实警告说，关税开始侵蚀利润率，以毛利率衡量有所改善。

So these are the good stuff.

所以这些都是好东西。

But again, that tariffs are starting to bite.

但再说一次，关税正在开始产生影响。

I mean, can you tell us what that means, what the bite of tariffs, when, when, how much you know, any color around that?

我的意思是，你能告诉我们那意味着什么吗，关税的影响是什么，何时，何时，多少，你知道，关于那方面有什么细节吗？

Harmeet Singh: Sure.

Harmeet Singh: 当然。

So, you know, overall, you know, we were able to raise top line and bottom line guidance despite absorbing tariffs.

所以，你知道，总的来说，我们尽管吸收了关税，但仍能上调营收和利润指引。

And so we are able to mitigate it.

所以我们能够减轻它的影响。

To the question about tariffs.

关于关税的问题。

Yeah, you know, tariffs were introduced on Liberation Day.

是的，你知道，关税是在解放日推出的。

We normally buy our products, you know, six months in advance.

我们通常会提前六个月采购产品。

And so, you know, we are working through, you know, our efforts and we've got different levers to kind of position as who take order through the quarter, which is reported gross margins are record.

所以，你知道，我们正在通过我们的努力，并且我们有不同的杠杆来定位季度内的订单，报告的毛利率创下了纪录。

So we are able to offset tariffs because we've got other things working for us.

所以我们能够抵消关税，因为我们还有其他有利因素。

You know, as we grow our women's business, our direct to consumer business and international, all of which are accretive to gross margins and allow us to, you know, mitigate and offset some of the tariff exposure.

你知道，随着我们女性业务、直接面向消费者 (Direct-to-Consumer: 品牌直接向最终消费者销售产品，不通过第三方零售商) 业务和国际业务的增长，所有这些都对毛利率有利，并使我们能够减轻和抵消一些关税风险。

Quarter four, we did guide gross margins to be slightly down versus a year ago.

第四季度，我们确实预计毛利率将比一年前略有下降。

And had it not been for tariffs, you know, we would have grown gross margins.

如果不是关税，你知道，我们的毛利率本会增长。

But overall, as we think about the year, we will report again another year of record gross margin.

但总体而言，当我们展望今年，我们将再次报告一个创纪录毛利率的年份。

So we are working on levers for 2026.

所以我们正在为2026年制定应对策略。

The good news is we'll end the year stronger and we believe we're well positioned to have another strong year in 2026.

好消息是，我们将在今年强势收官，并且我们相信我们在2026年也能保持强劲表现。

Carol Massar: And Carol, we've talked with a good friend, Peter Atwater, for quite some time about that k-shaped recovery, where people who are well-off are doing much better than those really in the bottom quintile.

Carol Massar: Carol，我们和好朋友 Peter Atwater 谈了很久关于 K 型复苏的问题，富裕人群的表现远好于那些处于最底层五分之一的人群。

Harmeet, when you look at your goods, when you look at the ability to raise prices from the impact of tariffs, which products are you able to more easily raise prices where you are going to see consumers push away?

Harmeet，当你审视你的商品，当你审视因关税影响而提高价格的能力时，哪些产品你可以更容易地提价而不会让消费者反感？

And how are you thinking about that strategy as it relates to, say, the jeans that you do sell through a Walmart where you don't have that gross margin going direct to consumer and you do have likely, at least when we look at the data consumer who's feeling the pinch of inflation, broadly speaking.

你如何考虑这一策略，例如，你通过沃尔玛销售的牛仔裤，你没有直接面向消费者的毛利率，而且你很可能，至少从数据上看，消费者正在感受到通货膨胀的压力，广义而言。

Harmeet Singh: Yeah.

Harmeet Singh: 是的。

And so the first thing Baily, to your question is our products are well, segmented depending on the income profile of different consumers.

所以 Baily，首先回答你的问题，我们的产品根据不同消费者的收入情况进行了很好的细分。

I talk blue to red and signature signature is what's sold into the lower income consumer.

我谈论蓝标到红标，而“Signature”系列是面向低收入消费者的。

We've been very thoughtful about pricing.

我们对定价一直非常谨慎。

We are leading with product innovation rather than price.

我们以产品创新而非价格引领市场。

And so we are doing what we can to maintain a price point.

所以我们正在尽力维持一个价格点。

It was evident in quarter three Signature, for example, I think is up in the low double digits for the year.

这在第三季度的 Signature 系列中很明显，例如，我认为今年该系列实现了低两位数的增长。

As we think about, you know, our other products, the good news for us is our product pipeline has never been stronger, you know, leading with lose and baggy while at the same time selling a lot of slim and skinny both for him and her.

当我们思考，你知道，我们的其他产品时，对我们来说好消息是我们的产品线从未如此强大，你知道，以宽松和肥大的款式为主导，同时男女款的修身和紧身款式也销售良好。

You know, we've got wonderful, you know, waist up product the thing trucker jackets, thing, linen shirts, etc., etc..

你知道，我们有很棒的，你知道，腰部以上的产品，比如卡车司机夹克，亚麻衬衫等等。

And so as a company, we're making this pivot to be more of a denim lifestyle retailer going forward.

所以作为一家公司，我们正在进行这种转型，未来将更多地成为一家牛仔生活方式零售商。

Our past was all about denim.

我们的过去全是关于牛仔。

Our future is going to be about denim lifestyle.

我们的未来将是关于牛仔生活方式。

Bailey Lipschultz: I just want to know, do you really have a pair of baggy barrel jeans?

Bailey Lipschultz: 我只想知道，你真的有一条宽松的桶形牛仔裤吗？

I can't get my head around them.

我无法理解它们。

I'm trying.

我正在尝试。

I'm trying.

我正在尝试。

I'm just.

我只是。

I haven't done it.

我还没做。

I haven't done it.

我还没做。

Ami, what I do want to ask you two areas you guys have had kind.

Ami，我想问你们两个方面的问题。

Of a mission, a goal to get to 10 billion in sales by 2027.

一项使命，一个目标，即到2027年实现100亿美元的销售额。

I think you may have adjusted a little bit.

我想你可能已经做了一些调整。

I think also a 15% event margin.

我认为还有一个15%的活动利润率。

Could you reach 15% in the next few years even if sales have not hit that 10 billion?

即使销售额没有达到100亿美元，你们能在未来几年内达到15%吗？

You know?

你知道吗？

Talk to us a little bit about that mission.

跟我们谈谈那个使命。

Harmeet Singh: Yeah, no, you know, we gave up the expectation of 10,000,000,015% on our Investor Day in the middle of June 2022.

Harmeet Singh: 是的，不，你知道，我们在2022年6月中旬的投资者日上放弃了100亿美元和15%的预期。

Since then, you know, there's been a lot of change and a lot of uncertainty.

从那时起，你知道，发生了许多变化和许多不确定性。

As a company, we have kind of, you know, navigated our way through uncertainty.

作为一家公司，我们已经，你知道，在不确定性中找到了自己的方向。

We haven't given a new date on the 10,000,000,002 and a and the 15% I thinking is will probably do that sometime next year.

我们还没有给出100亿美元和15%的新日期，我想我们可能会在明年某个时候公布。

But to your question, the company that we are building and the company that is God, the foundation given where we are ending this year.

但回到你的问题，我们正在建设的公司以及上帝，考虑到我们今年结束时的基础。

So you take 22, 2025 will end about 6% organic growth.

所以你算一下，2025年将以约6%的有机增长结束。

Last year it was 3%.

去年是3%。

The year before that it was flat.

前一年持平。

You would think an EBIT margin (息税前利润率: 衡量公司盈利能力的指标) this year will end about middle heavens.

你可能会认为今年的息税前利润率将达到中等水平。

Last year it was in the mid-teens, the previous year it was about nine.

去年是十位数中期，前一年大约是九。

So we have seen a steady progress and our view is we probably get to the 15% faster than we get to the 10 billion.

所以我们看到了稳步的进展，我们的观点是，我们可能会比达到100亿美元更快达到15%。

But but really, a company that is steadily delivering mid-single digit growth in a category that probably grows a little, you know, out of that.

但真正的是，一家公司在一个可能略有增长的类别中稳步实现中个位数增长。

So our view is that we will we are market leaders now in the U.S., number one in men's, number one in women's and really resonating with the youth.

所以我们的观点是，我们现在是美国市场的领导者，男装第一，女装第一，并且真正与年轻人产生共鸣。

And so the question is, if you're able to stay at, you know, and implement our strategies, our view is we can continue to be a market leader and probably pick up a little bit of share, especially because the denim category is accelerating.

所以问题是，如果你能保持，你知道，并实施我们的策略，我们的观点是我们可以继续成为市场领导者，并可能抢占一些份额，特别是因为牛仔品类正在加速发展。

We have seen the acceleration in the U.S., we've seen the acceleration outside, and that is largely driven by the world becoming more casual.

我们已经看到了美国国内和国外的加速增长，这主要得益于世界变得更加休闲。

Carol Massar: Yeah, I have more jeans in my wardrobe than I've ever had in like since high school.

Carol Massar: 是的，我的衣柜里牛仔裤比我高中以来任何时候都多。

Like, it's really kind of wild and rebellion.

就像，这真的很狂野和叛逆。

I got another question I was just going to ask in terms of geographic expansion.

我还有一个问题，是关于地域扩张的。

中国市场与产品偏好

When you think about China, what's going on with China and also what products do the Chinese consumers want?

当你考虑中国时，中国正在发生什么？中国消费者想要什么产品？

Is it that high end good or is it more of a bargain purchase?

是高端商品还是更倾向于打折购买？

Harmeet Singh: Yeah.

Harmeet Singh: 是的。

So China for us is still under-penetrated.

所以对我们来说，中国市场渗透率仍然不足。

China represents about two or 3% of our business.

中国约占我们业务的2%或3%。

You know, our business in China has been slow and soft.

你知道，我们在中国的业务一直缓慢而疲软。

The Chinese consumer right now is going through a bit of a macro uncertain climate.

中国消费者目前正经历一个宏观不确定性的时期。

But the good news for us is they love the brand.

但对我们来说好消息是他们喜欢这个品牌。

Brand equity scores are really solid.

品牌资产得分非常稳固。

We think China can be, you know, a business that grows double digit over the long term.

我们认为中国可以成为一项长期实现两位数增长的业务。

But your specific question, the Chinese consumers are fairly discerning on the brands he or she gravitate to.

但具体到你的问题，中国消费者对他/她喜欢的品牌相当有辨识力。

There is a high end consumer as well as a consumer that like the mid-market consumer, what we call the core product.

既有高端消费者，也有喜欢中端市场的消费者，我们称之为核心产品。

So if you think about our Asia strategy, we really you know, our products are relevant for the mid-market consumer, while we also offer products for the higher premium and consumer.

所以如果你考虑我们的亚洲战略，我们确实，你知道，我们的产品与中端市场消费者相关，同时我们也为更高端的消费者提供产品。

30% of the Asian denim category is premium.

亚洲牛仔品类的30%是高端产品。

And, you know, premium, for example, our highest pinnacle product is largely Japanese, you know, fabric, Japanese denim and inspired by Selvedge.

而且，你知道，高端产品，例如，我们最顶级的产品主要采用日本面料，日本牛仔布，并受 Selvedge 启发。

And so that's what we are selling.

所以这就是我们正在销售的。

And I think over time we will be able to start growing our China business back in the low double digit range.

我认为随着时间的推移，我们将能够使我们在中国的业务重新回到低两位数增长的范围。

Bailey Lipschultz: Yeah.

Bailey Lipschultz: 是的。

Interesting.

有趣。

Seth.

赛斯。

I will say, Carol, I know you mentioned you have more jeans than I have been buying the Sherpa jackets, the denim jackets like crazy.

我要说，Carol，我知道你提到你的牛仔裤比我的多，我一直在疯狂购买 Sherpa 夹克、牛仔夹克。

I don't know why I have three of them in different colors.

我不知道为什么我有三件不同颜色的。

I bought a bunch of denim jacket.

我买了一堆牛仔夹克。

That's what I mean.

我就是这个意思。

I'm like, I don't wear jeans, I wear chinos, but I wear the denim jackets like crazy.

我就像是，我不穿牛仔裤，我穿斜纹棉布裤，但我疯狂地穿牛仔夹克。

I know.

我知道。

I just.

我只是。

I don't know.

我不知道。

I love it.

我喜欢它。

I love it.

我喜欢它。

Yes, I agree.

是的，我同意。

But I work and jeans every morning.

但我每天早上都穿工作服和牛仔裤。

Harmeet Singh: Yeah.

Harmeet Singh: 是的。

And bailing coal.

还有保释煤炭。

Now we've got the blue tab.

现在我们有了蓝标签。

It's it's it's full of jacket you can definitely read to office depending on the on the, on the you know dress environment at Bloomberg I walked in you know fairly casual so you know it's something that we are not bringing to offer which should make your wardrobe at some stage.

它是一件完整的夹克，你绝对可以穿去办公室，这取决于彭博社的着装环境，我走进去的时候，你知道，相当随意，所以，你知道，这是我们不打算提供的东西，这应该会在某个阶段丰富你的衣橱。

Carol Massar: Hey, one last question.

Carol Massar: 嘿，最后一个问题。

Does it feel like God mean the it's been a crazy year and a lot of stuff coming out.

感觉就像上帝的意思是，这真是疯狂的一年，很多事情都浮出水面。

Everybody, investors, the world at large.

每个人，投资者，整个世界。

Does it feel like things are starting to calm down on a day when we've talked about what seems like progress in a cease fire between Israel and Hamas?

在今天我们谈论以色列和哈马斯停火似乎取得进展的时候，你觉得事情开始平静下来了吗？

Harmeet Singh: Yeah, you know, as I mentioned earlier, you know.

Harmeet Singh: 是的，你知道，正如我之前提到的，你知道。

We have lived through uncertainty.

我们经历过不确定性。

You know, the good news for us is the category is strong.

你知道，对我们来说好消息是这个品类很强劲。

We have real business momentum.

我们有真正的业务势头。

The brand's never been stronger and we have a product pipeline that is never been fuller, especially as we head towards holiday.

品牌从未如此强大，我们的产品线也从未如此丰富，尤其是在我们迈向假期之际。

You know, our focus right now is making sure our product is on the floor.

你知道，我们现在的重点是确保我们的产品上架。

On the floor when because of what we have seen, Carol, is consumers gravitate to newness and gravitate towards relevant.

因为我们所看到的，Carol，是消费者倾向于新颖和相关性。

And, you know, and, you know, our view is if we can offer the right product and build a brand experience, and that's why we've got a real focus on our DTC (直接面向消费者: 品牌直接向最终消费者销售产品，不通过第三方零售商) business while complementing growth with our wholesale business.

而且，你知道，我们的观点是，如果我们可以提供正确的产品并建立品牌体验，这就是为什么我们真正专注于我们的直接面向消费者业务，同时通过我们的批发业务来补充增长。

So this quarter, you know, both DTC and wholesale was up.

所以这个季度，你知道，DTC 和批发都增长了。

Had in the U.S. five consecutive quarters of high growth and is fueled by both the channels.

在美国实现了连续五个季度的高增长，并且由这两个渠道共同推动。

Carol Massar: All right.

Carol Massar: 好的。

Well, Harmeet, when you talk with your design team, I like highways, buttons that kind of slam through the legs and then a little flare.

嗯，Harmeet，当你和你的设计团队交流时，我喜欢高腰、那种紧贴腿部然后略微喇叭口的纽扣设计。

I'm just going to put it out there.

我就直说了。

A little stretch in there, too.

里面还有一点弹性。

It's kind of my favorite.

这有点像我的最爱。

My favorite.

我的最爱。

My favorite.

我的最爱。

And you are, Jeff.

你是，Jeff。

Thank you.

谢谢你。

Harmeet Singh: Yeah, and I'll take that feedback.

Harmeet Singh: 是的，我会接受这个反馈。

Karen.

Karen。

I sincerely believe feedback is a is a gift.

我真诚地相信反馈是一种礼物。

And getting feedback from consumers like yourself is something that I'll take upon myself to feedback to our designers.

从像你这样的消费者那里获得反馈，我会亲自向我们的设计师反馈。

Carol Massar: All right.

Carol Massar: 好的。

I'm going to hold you to it.

我会让你兑现的。

All right.

好的。

Good stuff, Ami.

好东西，Ami。

Thank you so much.

非常感谢你。

Ami It's saying.

Ami 正在说。

Chief Financial and Growth Officer Brett Levi Strauss, joining us from our bureau in San Francisco.

李维斯公司的首席财务官兼增长官 Brett Levi Strauss，从我们旧金山办事处加入我们。

市场收盘与个股动向

All right, folks, just a quick check on the markets.

好的，各位，快速检查一下市场。

Barely.

几乎没有。

We are just rolling off our highs of the session, but we've got a rally underway.

我们刚刚从盘中高点回落，但反弹正在进行中。

We're still well in the green, up more than 1% on the S&P 500, led by none other than the chip stocks.

我们仍然大幅上涨，标普500指数上涨超过1%，领涨的正是芯片股。

So thank you.

所以谢谢你。

Open air.

OpenAI。

Bailey Lipschultz: Yeah, exactly right.

Bailey Lipschultz: 是的，完全正确。

Yeah.

是的。

We're seeing the chip stocks rally in a big way and you've got, what, the Dow up about 1% and the Nasdaq 100, a gain of about 2%.

我们看到芯片股大幅上涨，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨约1%，纳斯达克100指数上涨约2%。

We'll take it after the pain that we saw on Friday.

在周五我们经历的痛苦之后，我们接受这个结果。

Carol Massar: Yeah, it's broad based or broader based buying, certainly in the S&P 500.

Carol Massar: 是的，这是一种广泛的或更广泛的买入，尤其是在标普500指数中。

I'm Carol Massar along with Ali Lipschultz.

我是 Carol Massar 和 Ali Lipschultz。

Let's take a look at some individual stocks on the move on this Monday.

让我们看看今天周一一些个股的动向。

With us is Bloomberg News equities reporter Alexandra Semenova.

与我们在一起的是彭博新闻社股票记者 Alexandra Semenova。

Alex, we're going to go to the name that everybody seems to be talking about.

Alex，我们要谈谈大家似乎都在谈论的名字。

Alexandra Semenova: Yeah, well, Broadcom, guys, as you mentioned, that sell off that we got on Friday, basically old news today and artificial intelligence enthusiasm is back in full force.

Alexandra Semenova: 是的，博通，各位，正如你们提到的，我们周五看到的抛售，今天基本上是旧闻了，人工智能的热情全面回归。

Broadcom is up about 10% right now.

博通目前上涨约10%。

This is after open.

这是开盘后。

I agreed to buy the company's custom chips and networking equipment in a multi-year deal.

我同意在一项多年协议中购买该公司的定制芯片和网络设备。

This is part of a bigger plan by this startup.

这是这家初创公司更大计划的一部分。

To add a infrastructure opening, I will design the hardware and work with Broadcom to develop this gear.

为了增加基础设施开放，我将设计硬件并与博通合作开发这种设备。

And one of the goals by OpenAI is that it'll take what it's learned so far about AI and develop it very directly.

OpenAI 的目标之一是将其迄今为止在人工智能方面学到的知识直接应用于开发。

They said that we want to take it directly to the hardware, unlocking new levels of compatibility and intelligence.

他们说，我们希望将其直接应用于硬件，解锁新的兼容性和智能水平。

The hardware rollout should be completed by the end of 2029.

硬件部署应在2029年底前完成。

But the interesting part here, of course, is that there's no clear details on how open A.I. will be paying for.

但这里有趣的部分是，当然，关于 OpenAI 将如何支付费用，并没有明确的细节。

This has been a theme very clearly.

这已是一个非常清晰的主题。

Bailey Lipschultz: Heard this before.

Bailey Lipschultz: 以前听过。

Alexandra Semenova: Yeah, fun stuff there, though, Alex.

Alexandra Semenova: 是的，不过那里有趣的东西，Alex。

What's going on with Keurig?

Keurig 怎么了？

Dr. Pepper?

Dr. Pepper？

Another stock in the green?

另一只上涨的股票？

Alexandra Semenova: Yeah, we just got some news earlier.

Alexandra Semenova: 是的，我们刚才得到了一些消息。

A report from the Financial Times that Starboard value had to build a stake in the beverage company.

英国《金融时报》报道称，Starboard Value 必须增持这家饮料公司的股份。

Apparently, they had started building their stake right around when Keurig announced it would buy ADP, the Dutch company that owns Peet's Coffee.

显然，他们开始增持股份的时间，大约就在 Keurig 宣布将收购拥有 Peet's Coffee 的荷兰公司 ADP 之际。

The deal has been really unpopular among investors.

这项交易在投资者中一直非常不受欢迎。

Shares of Keurig Dr. Pepper Pepper had fallen about 26% since that deal was announced in August.

自去年8月宣布该交易以来，Keurig Dr. Pepper 的股价已下跌约26%。

So it looks like Star Board is trying to kind of restore investor confidence here without making too much of a fuss about it.

所以看起来 Starboard 正在努力恢复投资者的信心，而没有对此大做文章。

Bailey Lipschultz: All right, Tickers, CDP, just real quickly, JPM on the move.

Bailey Lipschultz: 好的，股票代码 CDP，快速说一下，摩根大通正在行动。

I love this story.

我喜欢这个故事。

Just got about 1520.

刚刚拿到大约1520。

Alexandra Semenova: Yeah, shelling out $1.5 trillion into industries that bolster US economic security and resiliency.

Alexandra Semenova: 是的，向那些增强美国经济安全和韧性的行业投入1.5万亿美元。

And a really interesting comment from Jamie Dimon here.

这里还有 Jamie Dimon 一个非常有趣的评论。

He says that we can't rely on other countries for our own national securities and we need to act now.

他说我们不能依赖其他国家来保障我们自己的国家安全，我们现在就需要行动。

Bailey Lipschultz: All right.

Bailey Lipschultz: 好的。

The full story on the Bloomberg Alex Salmon over.

彭博社的 Alex Salmon 报道了完整的故事。

Check out our Stock Movers podcast.

请收听我们的“股票动向”播客。

Five minute episodes, find it on Apple, Spotify or anywhere you get your podcast.

五分钟一集，可在 Apple、Spotify 或任何你收听播客的地方找到。

If you're watching on TV, that closes coming your way.

如果你正在电视上观看，那很快就会结束。

Bailey and I continue on Bloomberg Businessweek Deli.

Bailey 和我继续在《彭博商业周刊每日》节目中。