市场回顾与本周焦点

Hello, my friends. Today is September 27th, and this is Markets Weekly. This past week, the equity markets were kind of boring, not much going on, but I think there was some real action in some corners of the market. 各位朋友大家好。今天是9月27日，这里是《市场周报》。过去一周，股市有些平淡，没有太多动静，但我认为市场某些角落却出现了真正的行动。

In particular, silver was absolutely surging, going parabolic, and we've talked about silver before. 特别是白银，它绝对是飙升，呈抛物线上涨，我们之前也谈论过白银。

It is a very volatile metal. In the past, we've seen it squeeze higher to $50 in the 1980s when the Hunts brothers were trying to corner the market. 它是一种波动性非常大的金属。过去，在20世纪80年代亨特兄弟试图垄断市场时，我们曾看到它飙升至50美元。

And of course, in the post-GFC (Global Financial Crisis: 全球金融危机) era, it also had a huge surge to $50. It looks like we're going to try to hit that again. 当然，在GFC（全球金融危机）后的时代，它也曾大幅上涨至50美元。看起来我们又要再次冲击这个价格。

Before there was crypto, silver was basically the asset that received a ton of speculative flows and retail interest. So that was pretty interesting. Gold, of course, was doing very well as well. 在加密货币出现之前，白银基本上是吸引大量投机资金和散户兴趣的资产。所以这相当有趣。黄金当然也表现得非常好。

What kind of caught my eye the past week, and actually the past couple weeks, is that crypto doesn't seem to be trading very well. 过去一周，实际上是过去几周，引起我注意的是加密货币的表现似乎不太好。

Some people think about crypto as levered NASDAQ (National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations: 美国全国证券交易商协会自动报价表), some people think of it as digital gold, but it's doing much worse than gold and the NASDAQ. I'm not sure what's going on there, but it doesn't look good. 有些人将加密货币视为杠杆化的纳斯达克（美国全国证券交易商协会自动报价表），有些人则将其视为数字黄金，但它的表现比黄金和纳斯达克差很多。我不确定那里发生了什么，但情况看起来不太好。

So, today, let's talk about three things because we do have some interesting developments this past week. 所以，今天我们来谈谈三件事，因为过去一周确实发生了一些有趣的发展。

First off, let's talk about this new line of thinking in the Fed (Federal Reserve: 美国联邦储备系统), where we have more coherent arguments from the Trump appointees as to why the Fed should be cutting rates. 首先，我们来谈谈美联储（美国联邦储备系统）中一种新的思维方式，即特朗普任命的官员们就美联储为何应该降息提出了更连贯的论点。

Secondly, something else that happened this past week was that the Treasury is seemingly going to throw a lifeline to help save Argentina. It seems like it's going to be an extension of the Monroe Doctrine, as the president seems to be viewing the world in that way. 其次，过去一周发生的另一件事是，美国财政部似乎将向阿根廷提供一条救命索。这看起来像是门罗主义的延伸，因为总统似乎正在以这种方式看待世界。

And lastly, let's talk about some new developments in the ongoing AI bubble, because I do believe it is a bubble. 最后，我们来谈谈正在进行的AI泡沫的一些新进展，因为我确实认为这是一个泡沫。

美联储内部关于利率政策的辩论

Okay, starting with the Fed. This past week, we got the first speech from newly minted Governor Myron, and also a couple speeches from Governor Bowman. 好的，我们从美联储开始。过去一周，我们听到了新任理事迈伦的首次演讲，以及鲍曼理事的几次演讲。

Myron and Bowman, along with Governor Waller, are Trump appointees, and they have been pretty vocal for lower rates in the past few months. 迈伦和鲍曼，连同沃勒理事，都是特朗普任命的官员，他们在过去几个月里一直非常明确地主张降低利率。

When you think about monetary policy (货币政策: 中央银行通过控制货币供应量来影响经济的手段), there are actually a lot of ways you can think about it. 当你考虑货币政策（中央银行通过控制货币供应量来影响经济的手段）时，实际上有很多种思考方式。

You have the employment mandate (就业使命: 美联储的双重使命之一，旨在实现最大化就业) and the inflation mandate (通胀使命: 美联储的双重使命之一，旨在保持物价稳定), but you also have how restrictive the Fed is currently, and basically how the Fed should approach the process of looking at the economy. 你有就业使命（美联储的双重使命之一，旨在实现最大化就业）和通胀使命（美联储的双重使命之一，旨在保持物价稳定），但你也要考虑美联储目前的限制程度，以及美联储应该如何审视经济。

So we have some interesting developments from both Myron and Bowman. What they're trying to argue right now is a shift away from data dependence (数据依赖: 政策制定者根据最新经济数据而非预测来做决策) and towards more forward-looking views, basically a shift back to model dependency. 所以迈伦和鲍曼都提出了一些有趣的观点。他们现在试图主张的是从数据依赖（政策制定者根据最新经济数据而非预测来做决策）转向更具前瞻性的观点，基本上是回归模型依赖。

If you recall a few years ago, the Fed usually looked at the world with a forward-looking stance, right? They have models to think about, 'I'm doing this monetary policy, which acts with a lag, so how is the economy going to be affected?' 如果你回想几年前，美联储通常以一种前瞻性的姿态看待世界，对吗？他们有模型来思考：“我正在实施这项货币政策，它会滞后生效，那么经济将如何受到影响？”

That's kind of how the Fed used to operate. But in 2021 and 2022, based on that framework, the Fed was telling everyone to relax, that inflation was transitory and there was no need to hike rates, which turned out to be a total disaster. 这就是美联储过去运作的方式。但在2021年和2022年，基于那个框架，美联储告诉所有人放松，通胀是暂时的，不需要加息，结果那是一场彻底的灾难。

So from that point on, the Fed shifted to what they call data dependency. Basically, 'I have no idea what the future is going to be like, so I'm just going to look at the data as it comes in.' 所以从那时起，美联储转向了他们所说的数据依赖。基本上就是说，“我不知道未来会怎样，所以我只看实时数据。”

But of course, if you're looking at the data that comes in, you are basically looking in the past; you're driving by looking at the rearview mirror. 但当然，如果你只看实时数据，你基本上是在回顾过去；你就像在开车时只看后视镜。

Earlier this year, Chair Powell gave a speech and said that we have a lot of things happening in the economy. 今年早些时候，鲍威尔主席发表了一次演讲，他说经济中发生了很多事情。

President Trump is making all sorts of changes with regulatory policy, fiscal policy (财政政策: 政府通过调整税收和支出水平来影响经济的手段), immigration policy, trade policy, and so forth. 特朗普总统正在对监管政策、财政政策（政府通过调整税收和支出水平来影响经济的手段）、移民政策、贸易政策等进行各种改变。

He said, 'I just don't know what's going to happen, so I'm just going to stay and be data dependent,' in a sense, committing himself to being late. That was what he was thinking. 他说：“我只是不知道会发生什么，所以我只会保持数据依赖。”从某种意义上说，他是在让自己迟滞。那是他当时的想法。

Now, what Governor Myron and Governor Bowman are saying is something different. Governor Bowman actually says this directly: 'If we're too independent, we're going to be looking at the rearview mirror; we're going to be too late. So let's look forward to seeing how the world is going to evolve.' 现在，迈伦理事和鲍曼理事所说的有所不同。鲍曼理事实际上直接指出：“如果我们过于独立，我们就会只看后视镜；我们就会太迟。所以让我们展望未来，看看世界将如何演变。”

Based on this, they are looking at what's happening with the policy changes the president has, and they are saying that maybe the Fed should be cutting rates. 基于此，他们正在审视总统所实施的政策变化，他们认为美联储或许应该降息。

中性利率与特朗普政策的影响

From Governor Myron's perspective, he doesn't actually talk too much about labor and inflation so far; his focus really is on what's called R-star, the neutral rate (中性利率: 既不刺激也不抑制经济增长的理论利率水平). 从迈伦理事的角度来看，他目前并没有过多谈论劳动力和通胀；他的重点实际上是所谓的R星，即中性利率（既不刺激也不抑制经济增长的理论利率水平）。

His argument is that the neutral rate is actually pretty low. Because it's pretty low, current rates are super, super restrictive. So, we need to get rates lower. That's why he voted for 350 basis point cuts this year. 他的论点是，中性利率实际上相当低。正因为如此之低，目前的利率水平显得极其、极其紧缩。所以，我们必须降低利率。这就是他今年投票支持降息350个基点的原因。

This is an angle that you don't see many Fed officials take because the neutral rate is basically the rate where, in central bank speak, if interest rates are above the neutral rate, you're being restrictive, slowing the economy down. 这是一个你很少看到美联储官员采取的角度，因为中性利率基本上就是指，用央行的话来说，如果利率高于中性利率，你就采取了紧缩政策，会减缓经济增长。

If interest rates are below the neutral rate, you're being accommodative. People don't talk too much about the neutral rate because it's a notoriously vague concept that no one really knows where it is. 如果利率低于中性利率，你就在采取宽松政策。人们很少谈论中性利率，因为它是一个出了名的模糊概念，没有人真正知道它到底在哪里。

Chair Powell would say he knows it by its works, again, just looking at the economy and not wanting too much of a theoretical model. 鲍威尔主席会说他通过其作用来了解它，再次强调，就是只看经济表现，不希望有太多理论模型。

What Myron is saying, however, is that if you look at the policy changes that Trump has enacted, it's very clear the neutral rate is coming down, and he makes a few, I think, pretty good points. 然而，迈伦的观点是，如果你审视特朗普实施的政策变化，就会非常清楚地看到中性利率正在下降，他提出了一些我认为相当不错的观点。

One, of course, is immigration. One of the reasons why we've had high inflation over the past few years is that we've had tremendous population growth, right? 其中一个当然是移民问题。过去几年我们通胀高企的原因之一就是人口增长巨大，对吗？

Under Biden, there was a tremendous amount of illegal immigration. No one knows how many millions of people came in, but public sources say maybe two or three million people more than usual. 在拜登执政期间，存在大量的非法移民。没有人知道到底有多少百万人涌入，但公共消息来源称，可能比往常多出两三百万人。

With millions of people coming in at a time, we're obviously not building houses as easily or as quickly, right? So, that puts upward pressure on shelter inflation. 一次涌入数百万人，我们显然不可能那么容易、那么快地建造房屋，对吗？所以，这给住房通胀带来了上行压力。

This is something people see all throughout the world: in Canada, the UK, and Australia, they have tremendous amounts of immigration, and rents just keep going higher and higher because they don't really build a lot of housing. 这是世界各地都在发生的事情：在加拿大、英国和澳大利亚，他们都有大量的移民，而租金却不断上涨，因为他们并没有真正建造大量的住房。

Everyone has all these regulations that limit that, yet you have people who need to live somewhere, and that pushed up rent a lot. 每个人都有各种限制住房建设的规定，然而总有人需要住处，这大大推高了租金。

But now that that's over, and maybe we have some deportations, shelter inflation would come down, right? So maybe that means that we don't have to be as restrictive as we used to be. 但现在这种情况结束了，也许我们会有一些遣返，住房通胀就会下降，对吗？所以这可能意味着我们不必像过去那样采取那么紧缩的政策。

Myron also makes a couple of other interesting points. If you have deregulation—and everyone can agree that President Trump is reducing regulations—that essentially decreases the cost of businesses. 迈伦还提出了另外几个有趣的观点。如果你实行放松管制——每个人都同意特朗普总统正在减少监管——那本质上会降低企业的成本。

If you decrease the cost of businesses, perhaps you have a higher productive capacity, increasing supply, which again puts downward pressure on the neutral rate. 如果你降低了企业的成本，也许你就能拥有更高的生产能力，增加供给，这又会给中性利率带来下行压力。

The last thing he suggests is that because we're collecting tariffs, maybe the deficit will be better and lower in the future. 他提出的最后一点是，因为我们正在征收关税，未来赤字可能会有所改善和降低。

With a lower deficit, the government is not competing as much for resources, which might mean we can have a lower neutral rate as well. So, he makes these R-star arguments. 赤字降低后，政府对资源的竞争就不会那么激烈，这可能也意味着我们可以有更低的中性利率。所以，他提出了这些R星论点。

Again, these are pretty vague, and I don't know if anyone takes them literally. He does have a table decomposing it, but I think it is useful to look at these big policy changes that Trump is implementing. 再次强调，这些观点相当模糊，我不知道是否有人会照单全收。他确实有一个表格对其进行了分解，但我认为审视特朗普正在实施的这些重大政策变化是有益的。

These are huge changes, and we should at least try to think about how they could affect the economy rather than just being data dependent, because, as you know, that means driving by looking in the rearview mirror. 这些都是巨大的变化，我们至少应该尝试思考它们可能如何影响经济，而不是仅仅依赖数据，因为你知道，那就像是看着后视镜开车。

鲍曼理事对劳动力市场的担忧

Governor Bowman this past week also made similar arguments for low interest rates, and she sounded a little bit panicky. She doesn't talk about the neutral rate at all. 鲍曼理事上周也提出了类似的低利率论点，她听起来有点恐慌。她根本没有谈论中性利率。

She's not a PhD economist, and to be clear, neutral rate discussions are not super useful in real life, but she seems to pay a lot of attention to the labor market, and she's sounding the alarm. 她不是经济学博士，坦白说，中性利率的讨论在现实生活中并不是特别有用，但她似乎非常关注劳动力市场，并且正在敲响警钟。

The labor market really does seem to be cracking, and she really wants to get ahead of it. 劳动力市场似乎确实正在出现裂痕，她非常希望能够提前应对。

But in addition to that, if you've followed Bowman for the past few years, you'll know that she is actually by nature a very hawkish (鹰派: 通常指主张采取更强硬、更紧缩货币政策的立场) person. 但除此之外，如果你过去几年一直关注鲍曼，你会知道她天生就是一个非常鹰派（通常指主张采取更强硬、更紧缩货币政策的立场）的人。

She's turned on rates, but when it comes to the other stuff, she's still quite hawkish. So she also wants to sell mortgage-backed securities (抵押贷款支持证券: 由抵押贷款组合产生的证券), maybe shrink the Fed's balance sheet (资产负债表: 一份报告公司或组织在特定时间点的资产、负债和所有者权益的财务报表), and perhaps reduce some of these emergency facilities, like the standing repo facility (常备回购便利: 美联储向符合条件的对手方提供隔夜贷款的工具) and so forth. 她在利率问题上有所转变，但在其他方面仍然相当鹰派。所以她也希望出售抵押贷款支持证券（由抵押贷款组合产生的证券），也许会缩减美联储的资产负债表（一份报告公司或组织在特定时间点的资产、负债和所有者权益的财务报表），并可能减少一些紧急工具，比如常备回购便利（美联储向符合条件的对手方提供隔夜贷款的工具）等等。

So her views are basically things that would lead to a curve steepening (收益率曲线陡峭化: 短期利率下降而长期利率上升的现象), lower front-end rates, and higher longer rates. 所以她的观点基本上会导致收益率曲线陡峭化（短期利率下降而长期利率上升的现象），短期利率下降，长期利率上升。

Again, these are interesting developments, mostly from my perspective, focusing on being more forward-looking. I'm not sure if anyone else is going to adopt that perspective, but it does make sense when you're experiencing so many big policy changes. 再次强调，这些都是有趣的发展，主要从我的角度来看，侧重于更具前瞻性。我不确定是否还有其他人会采纳这种观点，但当你面临如此多的重大政策变化时，这确实是有道理的。

美国财政部对阿根廷的援助

Alright. The second thing I want to talk about is, of course, the Treasury's lifeline to Argentina. President Milei in Argentina has really done revolutionary work, and Argentina has been a country that has been mismanaged for some time. 好的。我要谈的第二件事，当然是美国财政部对阿根廷的援助。阿根廷的米莱总统确实做了革命性的工作，而阿根廷这个国家已经管理不善有一段时间了。

If you go back a hundred years, Argentina was one of the wealthiest countries in the entire world; there was a saying that you could be 'as wealthy as an Argentinian.' 如果你回溯一百年前，阿根廷是全世界最富有的国家之一；当时有句谚语说你可以“像阿根廷人一样富有”。

However, things have not been going well. They have huge inflation, and economic growth has not been doing well. So Milei really did something heroic: he massively slashed government spending. 然而，情况一直不尽如人意。他们面临着巨大的通胀，经济增长也表现不佳。所以米莱确实做了一件英雄壮举：他大幅削减了政府开支。

Argentina actually has a fiscal surplus now, and that seems to have brought inflation down. At least by Argentinian standards, it's much, much lower than before, and a lot of people were feeling a bit more positive about this turn in Argentina. 阿根廷现在实际上有了财政盈余，这似乎也使通胀有所下降。至少按照阿根廷的标准，它比以前低了很多很多，许多人对阿根廷的这一转变感到更加乐观。

However, recently, Milei's party seemed to have not done very well in a local election, which suggests that the appetite for reform in Argentina might be waning. 然而，最近米莱的政党在地方选举中表现不佳，这表明阿根廷的改革意愿可能正在减弱。

If the Milei revolution is just something that's going to end very quickly, then investors are thinking that maybe they'll go back to huge deficit spending, and things will return to the way they were. 如果米莱的革命很快就会结束，那么投资者就会认为他们可能会回到巨额赤字支出，一切又会回到从前。

So, they started to pull money out, leading to a huge run on the currency, and of course, bond yields began to spike. 于是，他们开始撤资，导致货币遭遇大规模抛售，当然，债券收益率也开始飙升。

Obviously, implementing a lot of austerity is unpopular, so this is a totally predictable thing that would happen. 显然，实施大量紧缩政策是不受欢迎的，所以这完全是意料之中的事情。

Thankfully, President Milei has built pretty good relationships in Washington. If you watch TV, you'll have seen him over the past few months, every now and then popping up at events that are supportive of the Republican party. 值得庆幸的是，米莱总统在华盛顿建立了相当良好的关系。如果你看电视，过去几个月你肯定见过他，他时不时地出现在支持共和党的活动中。

We saw him hang out with Elon a bit. It's actually a really, really long flight from Argentina to the U.S., so he's definitely been cultivating this relationship, and today it seems to pay off. 我们还看到他与埃隆·马斯克有所互动。从阿根廷飞到美国实际上是一段非常非常漫长的旅程，所以他肯定一直在培养这种关系，而今天看来这似乎得到了回报。

Argentina had already borrowed about $20 billion from the IMF (International Monetary Fund: 国际货币基金组织). They probably have trouble repaying that and trying to support their currency and all that, as it's been spending their foreign reserves. 阿根廷已经从IMF（国际货币基金组织）借贷了约200亿美元。他们可能在偿还债务以及试图支撑本国货币等方面遇到困难，因为他们一直在动用外汇储备。

Over the past week, Secretary Besson also suggested that the United States is going to step in and give Argentina maybe a swap line, some kind of currency swap, and maybe even outright buy Argentinian dollar bonds. 过去一周，财长贝森也表示，美国将介入，可能向阿根廷提供一条互换额度，某种货币互换，甚至可能直接购买阿根廷的美元债券。

This is interesting because it seems like the swap agreement is not going to come from the Fed, but from the Treasury. 这很有趣，因为看起来互换协议不会来自美联储，而是来自财政部。

The Treasury itself has what you can think of as a rainy day fund called the ESFR (Exchange Stabilization Fund: 汇率稳定基金). It's something they accumulated in the past, beginning during the gold standard, to try to manage the currency. 财政部本身拥有一种你可以认为是应急基金的东西，叫做ESFR（汇率稳定基金）。这是他们过去积累起来的，从金本位时期就开始，目的是为了管理货币。

More recently, in past decades, it was actually used to try to weaken the dollar by selling dollars and buying foreign currency when the dollar was too strong. 最近几十年，它实际上被用来在美元过于强势时，通过出售美元和购买外币来试图削弱美元。

So the ESFR has basically been dormant for some time, but at the moment, when I look at it, it has about $20 billion in Treasury holdings. 所以ESFR基本上已经休眠了一段时间，但目前，当我查看它时，它拥有大约200亿美元的财政部资产。

So, $20 billion that could be used at the Treasury's discretion to do whatever they want with it. And it looks like they're going to use that to kind of shore up the Argentinian peso. 因此，这200亿美元可以由财政部酌情使用，做任何他们想做的事情。看起来他们将利用这笔资金来支撑阿根廷比索。

Technically speaking, I'm guessing that they could have forced the Fed to do something like that as well. 从技术上讲，我猜他们也可以强迫美联储做类似的事情。

The Fed has independence when it comes to interest rate policy, meaning monetary policy, but it doesn't have independence when it comes to regulatory policy. 美联储在利率政策，也就是货币政策方面拥有独立性，但在监管政策方面却没有独立性。

And when you have these international diplomatic matters, when there's that geopolitical strategic (地缘政治战略: 国家或地区在地理和政治层面上的战略布局) element, I'm guessing they probably could have had the Fed give them a line. 当涉及到这些国际外交事务，存在地缘政治战略（国家或地区在地理和政治层面上的战略布局）因素时，我猜他们可能可以让美联储提供一条额度。

Although, of course, it would be a huge departure from typical Fed behavior, at the moment they're structuring this by just using money that they have full control over and giving it to Argentina. 尽管当然，这会与美联储的典型行为大相径庭，但目前他们正在通过使用他们完全控制的资金来安排此事，并将其提供给阿根廷。

地缘战略考量与门罗主义

Broadly speaking, this seems to further President Trump's view that what happens in the Americas is strictly within the United States's geostrategical region, and they're trying to show more support. 广义上讲，这似乎进一步强化了特朗普总统的观点，即美洲发生的一切都严格属于美国的地理战略区域内，他们正试图展示更多的支持。

Argentina actually also has a swap line with China, which has made President Trump unhappy. 阿根廷实际上也与中国有货币互换额度，这让特朗普总统很不高兴。

They don't want other countries to come in and try to buy influence by being there as a last resort. China obviously has tremendous amounts of resources they could lend to Argentina. 他们不希望其他国家介入，通过作为最后贷款人来购买影响力。中国显然拥有大量资源可以借给阿根廷。

So it seems like the United States is trying to move in, shore up an ally, and cement their influence in this Western Hemisphere. 所以看起来美国正试图介入，支持一个盟友，并巩固其在西半球的影响力。

You can also see President Trump acting similarly when it comes to Brazil, being very critical of President Lula, who was very critical of President Bolsonaro, who was the president's friend. 你也可以看到特朗普总统在巴西问题上采取了类似行动，他非常批评卢拉总统，而卢拉总统则非常批评博索纳罗总统，后者是特朗普总统的朋友。

He's also sending ships over to Venezuela, kind of hanging out and bombing ships that seem to have drugs in them. 他还向委内瑞拉派遣船只，有点像是在那里游弋，并轰炸那些看起来载有毒品的船只。

So it seems like this is a broader geostrategic push to cement power within the Americas. It's an interesting development. 所以这看起来是一项更广泛的地缘战略推动，旨在巩固美洲内部的权力。这是一个有趣的发展。

持续发酵的AI泡沫及其风险

Okay. The last thing I want to talk about is, of course, the ongoing AI bubble. We've talked about how basically all these companies are spending hundreds of billions of dollars to build out AI infrastructure, which means building plants, spending a lot of money on chips, and so forth. 好的。我要谈的最后一件事，当然是正在持续的AI泡沫。我们已经讨论过，基本上所有这些公司都在花费数千亿美元来建设AI基础设施，这意味着建造工厂，在芯片等方面投入大量资金。

At the end of the day, these AI investments so far aren't really profitable. Studies suggest that companies are trying to use them and trying to make a return, but they're just not being very successful at it. 归根结底，这些AI投资到目前为止并没有真正盈利。研究表明，公司正试图利用它们并争取回报，但效果并不理想。

OpenAI, the star of the world, has been doing interesting things: working with Broadcom to develop new chips and promising Oracle that they will buy tens of billions of dollars worth of computing capacity. 全球瞩目的OpenAI一直在做一些有趣的事情：与博通合作开发新芯片，并向甲骨文承诺将购买价值数百亿美元的计算能力。

The stock market has loved all this stuff, but ultimately the question was, where is OpenAI going to get all this money? 股市一直很喜欢所有这些东西，但最终的问题是，OpenAI将从哪里获得所有这些资金？

Right now, they make revenues of about $13 billion a year, which is not enough to cover their costs, so they lose money. 目前，他们每年的收入约为130亿美元，这不足以覆盖他们的成本，所以他们是亏损的。

For the Mag 7 hyperscalers (七巨头超大规模公司: 指微软、苹果、亚马逊、Alphabet、Meta、特斯拉和英伟达等大型科技公司) like Microsoft and Facebook, they've been financing their expansion through their cash flows. 对于像微软和Facebook这样的七巨头超大规模公司（指微软、苹果、亚马逊、Alphabet、Meta、特斯拉和英伟达等大型科技公司）来说，它们一直通过现金流为其扩张提供资金。

They're still very successful companies making a lot of money, but they've been plowing that money into these GPUs (Graphics Processing Unit: 图形处理器) that have high depreciation rates (折旧率: 资产价值随时间损耗的速度) and don't seem to be, at the moment at least, very profitable. 它们仍然是非常成功的公司，赚了很多钱，但它们一直将这些钱投入到这些GPU（图形处理器）中，这些GPU具有很高的折旧率（资产价值随时间损耗的速度），并且目前看来似乎并不怎么盈利。

Actually, there was a story in the Wall Street Journal this past week where they suggested that the revenue gap to pay back all these AI investments is in the several hundred billion category, and there's really no indication that's going to be met. 事实上，上周《华尔街日报》有一篇报道指出，偿还所有这些AI投资的收入缺口高达数千亿美元，而且目前没有任何迹象表明这个缺口能够被填补。

So, this past week, with Nvidia's $100 billion investment into OpenAI, we've now figured out where the money is going to come from. 所以，上周，随着英伟达向OpenAI投资1000亿美元，我们现在明白了钱将从何而来。

This idea, this basically round-tripping thing, is something we also saw during the dot-com boom (互联网泡沫: 20世纪末至21世纪初互联网公司股价飙升后破裂的时期). 这种想法，这种基本上算是循环交易的事情，我们在互联网泡沫（20世纪末至21世纪初互联网公司股价飙升后破裂的时期）时期也曾见过。

During the dot-com boom, you had all these big fiber companies laying down fiber networks throughout the world, thinking that the internet would change the world. 在互联网泡沫时期，所有这些大型光纤公司都在世界各地铺设光纤网络，认为互联网将改变世界。

So you had to lay down fiber, and eventually, you'd have a return on all these investments. 所以你必须铺设光纤，最终，你会从所有这些投资中获得回报。

But what they realized was that, after laying down all this fiber, the demand actually wasn't there, so they weren't really making money. 但他们意识到，铺设了所有这些光纤之后，实际需求并不存在，所以他们并没有真正赚钱。

What they ended up doing was actually buying each other's capacity. One fiber company would buy capacity from another, and in exchange, they would sell their own capacity to the other company. 他们最终做的是互相购买对方的容量。一家光纤公司会从另一家公司购买容量，作为交换，他们会将自己的容量出售给另一家公司。

So, at the end of the day, there was no cash exchange, but then they would report in their earnings that they had tremendous amounts of revenue, even though it was basically fictional, right? 所以，到头来并没有现金交易，但他们会在财报中报告他们有巨额收入，尽管这基本上是虚构的，对吧？

One company was buying stuff from another company and also selling its own products to the other company. 一家公司从另一家公司购买东西，同时也将自己的产品出售给另一家公司。

This kind of reminds me of that because, at the end of the day, Nvidia is making an equity investment of $100 billion into OpenAI, and OpenAI is then, in turn, buying chips from Nvidia. 这让我想起了那种情况，因为归根结底，英伟达向OpenAI进行了1000亿美元的股权投资，而OpenAI反过来又从英伟达购买芯片。

So it seems somewhat shady, but the market did love it. And things like this can go on much longer than anyone expects. 所以这看起来有些可疑，但市场确实喜欢它。而且这样的事情可能比任何人预期的都要持续更久。

When you're in a bubble, things can double or triple, but one day, and you never know when, it could also come crashing down. 当你身处泡沫之中，事情可能会翻倍甚至三倍，但总有一天，你永远不知道是哪一天，它也可能彻底崩溃。

So, I continue to think that it is an interesting time, and also, I think, a risky time. 所以，我仍然认为这是一个有趣的时代，同时，我认为也是一个充满风险的时代。

Alright, so that's all for today. Thanks so much for tuning in. Talk to you guys next week. 好的，今天就到这里。非常感谢大家的收看。我们下周再聊。