美中贸易紧张与稀土争端升级

Bloomberg: Welcome to the Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Doug Krner. Tensions over trade between the US and China seemed to soften a bit during the last session. Bloomberg: 欢迎收听亚洲破晓播客。我是道格·克雷纳。在上一交易时段，美中贸易紧张关系似乎有所缓和。

Bloomberg: Both sides signaled over the weekend a willingness to keep negotiations alive after each made a series of threats. Bloomberg: 在双方各自发出了一系列威胁之后，周末期间都表示愿意继续保持谈判。

Bloomberg: Now, President Trump talked about an increase in tariffs on Chinese imports to 100%. Bloomberg: 现在，特朗普总统谈到将对中国进口商品征收的关税提高到100%。

Bloomberg: He seemed to be reacting to new Chinese restrictions on the export of rare earth minerals (稀土矿物: 一组化学元素，对高科技产品制造至关重要). Bloomberg: 他似乎是在回应中国对稀土矿物出口实施的新限制。

Bloomberg: The timing was very interesting since the trade data from China for the month of September blew past estimates. Bloomberg: 这个时机非常有趣，因为中国9月份的贸易数据远超预期。

Bloomberg: On Monday, Beijing reported outbound shipments rose 8.3%. Bloomberg: 周一，北京方面报告称，出口增长了8.3%。

Bloomberg: That's the fastest pace in six months, a total value of 328.66 billion US. Bloomberg: 这是六个月以来最快的增速，总价值达到3286.6亿美元。

Bloomberg: Later in the day, we heard from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant. Bloomberg: 当天晚些时候，我们听到了财政部长斯科特·贝桑特的声音。

Bloomberg: Now, he was saying all options are open for the US to retaliate against China's move to tighten exports on rare earths. Bloomberg: 他表示，美国对中国收紧稀土出口的举动，所有报复选项都将开放。

Bloomberg: Here is Bessant speaking to Fox Business. Bloomberg: 以下是贝桑特在接受福克斯商业频道采访时的讲话。

Scott Bessant: Here in the US, we have an all hands on deck policy. 斯科特·贝桑特: 在美国，我们采取的是“全体总动员”政策。

Scott Bessant: This is something that we didn't get here in a day. 斯科特·贝桑特: 这并非一日之功。

Scott Bessant: This has been the failure of previous administrations over decades not to see this strategic hole. 斯科特·贝桑特: 几十年来，历届政府未能察觉到这个战略漏洞，是它们的失败。

Bloomberg: That was US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant speaking to Fox Business. Bloomberg: 刚才那是美国财政部长斯科特·贝桑特在接受福克斯商业频道采访。

Bloomberg: For more on the latest between the US and China in terms of trade, we heard from James Atken of Adviserss. Bloomberg: 关于美中贸易最新动态的更多信息，我们采访了Adviserss公司的詹姆斯·艾特肯。

Bloomberg: He spoke with Bloomberg's Paul Allen at the A&Z investment conference in Sydney. Bloomberg: 他在悉尼的A&Z投资会议上与彭博社的保罗·艾伦进行了对话。

Paul Allen: The last few days have really been fascinating and it's perfect timing to have you walk us through it because it's just given us another example of how markets can be so suddenly upended by rhetoric and changes and trade policy. 保罗·艾伦: 过去几天真是引人入胜，现在请你为我们解读再合适不过了，因为它再次证明了市场如何能被言论、变化和贸易政策突然颠覆。

Paul Allen: And we've also seen a re-emphasis of the so-called TACO trade (TACO交易: "Trump Always Chickens Out"的缩写，指市场认为特朗普最终会在贸易冲突中妥协). 保罗·艾伦: 我们也再次看到了所谓的TACO交易被强调。

Paul Allen: Trump always chickens out. 保罗·艾伦: 特朗普总是临阵退缩。

Paul Allen: But you're warning if there's another acronym to be careful of and that's the FAFO trade (FAFO交易: 一个缩写，通常指“Fuck Around and Find Out”，在此语境下暗示市场对冒险行为的后果). 保罗·艾伦: 但你警告说，还有一个需要注意的缩写，那就是FAFO交易。

Paul Allen: Do people need to be careful? 保罗·艾伦: 人们需要小心吗？

Paul Allen: Can you always rely on that TACO trade? 保罗·艾伦: 你能一直依赖TACO交易吗？

James Atken: Yeah, I think that's a great place to start. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 是的，我认为这是一个很好的切入点。

James Atken: I mean, look, we've had a bit of FAFO. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 我的意思是，我们确实经历了一些FAFO。

James Atken: We've had a lot of TACO and certainly let's be clear, the market is betting once again that this is another TACO episode. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 我们经历了很多TACO，而且很明显，市场再次押注这又是一次TACO事件。

James Atken: I'm not so sure. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 我不太确定。

James Atken: But before we think about the path ahead, let's think about the conditions that prevailed as recently as the middle of last week. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 但在我们思考未来的道路之前，让我们先回顾一下上周中期普遍存在的市场状况。

James Atken: So unsurprisingly, people were all in. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 所以毫不意外地，人们都全身心投入了。

James Atken: Systematic investors (系统性投资者: 依据预设规则和算法进行投资的机构或个人) were all in. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 系统性投资者也全身心投入了。

James Atken: Everyone was all in and levered long equities (杠杆做多股票: 借钱购买股票以放大潜在收益的投资策略), which makes a lot of sense. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 每个人都全身心投入并杠杆做多股票，这很合理。

James Atken: It's the right thing to do. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 这是正确的做法。

James Atken: But Wednesday last week, per the Bloomberg terminal, 10-day realized correlation (已实现相关性: 衡量资产价格实际同步变动程度的指标) on the S&P 500 (标准普尔500指数: 衡量美国500家大型上市公司股票表现的指数) fell to zero, which is about as low as it can go. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 但根据彭博终端的数据，上周三，标普500指数的10日已实现相关性降至零，这几乎是它能达到的最低点。

James Atken: 10-day implied correlation (隐含相关性: 从期权价格中推断出的市场对未来资产价格同步变动程度的预期) on the S&P 500 fell to about five or six, which is low as it has been. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 标普500指数的10日隐含相关性降至约5或6，这也是历史低位。

James Atken: And the point I'd make is that the conditions, the initial conditions ahead of Thursday, Friday last week were already very stretched. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 我要指出的是，上周四、周五之前的初始市场条件已经非常紧张。

James Atken: It didn't particularly matter what might come up to disrupt that, but we were primed for some kind of disruption. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 并不特别重要的是什么会来扰乱它，但我们已经为某种形式的扰乱做好了准备。

James Atken: And of course, it got knocked over by resumption of the rare earth contest, which is what it is. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 当然，它被稀土争端的重启所击垮，事实就是如此。

James Atken: And look, I know it sounds a little bit dramatic, but we have been in a rare earth cold war now for a long, long time. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 听起来可能有点戏剧化，但我们已经处于一场稀土冷战之中很长时间了。

James Atken: It's just that it's only burst to the surface, and what we're seeing of late is a taste of what's to come. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 只是它最近才浮出水面，我们最近看到的是未来趋势的预兆。

国家安全驱动的投资与市场机遇

Paul Allen: How do you see this situation evolving? 保罗·艾伦: 你认为这种情况将如何演变？

Paul Allen: Because we heard from JP Morgan today, he's going to funnel another 1.5 trillion into that rare earth sector and Jamie Diamond saying, "Look, this isn't charity." 保罗·艾伦: 因为我们今天听到了摩根大通的消息，他将向稀土行业再注入1.5万亿美元，杰米·戴蒙德说：“看，这不是慈善。”

Paul Allen: "Uh, this is just a sensible move." 保罗·艾伦: “嗯，这只是一个明智的举动。”

Paul Allen: So is this an opportunity here or is it more as you sort of referred to with the FAFO chance for damage limitation? 保罗·艾伦: 所以这究竟是一个机会，还是像你提到的FAFO那样，更多是为了限制损失？

James Atken: Let's differentiate. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 让我们区分一下。

James Atken: Markets want to bet that there's a dip, you buy the party resumes, okay, that's a path. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 市场希望押注下跌，你买入，然后市场恢复上涨，好的，这是一条路。

James Atken: But what we're actually seeing, and whisper it, is that everything is being subjugated to national security, which I'd argue is long overdue. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 但我们实际看到的是，悄悄地说，一切都服从于国家安全，我认为这早就该如此了。

James Atken: So all this debate which you've talked about about inflation targets, Fed independence, look, if it's all about national security, which I think it should be, then everything is subjugated by that. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 所以所有你谈论的关于通胀目标、美联储独立性的争论，你看，如果一切都与国家安全有关——我认为它应该如此——那么一切都将服从于此。

James Atken: So inflation targets are important, but we've got a whole bunch of investments we need to make to make ourselves more resilient across the West, more resilient even, and that's barely started. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 所以通胀目标很重要，但我们还需要进行大量投资，以使西方国家更具韧性，甚至更具弹性，而这才刚刚开始。

James Atken: So yes, it's an opportunity for all sorts of investors to participate in, let's call it a national security rebuild (国家安全重建: 以国家安全为优先考量，重新配置资源和投资以增强国家韧性的策略). 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 所以，是的，对于各类投资者来说，这是一个参与到我们称之为国家安全重建的机会。

James Atken: It's long overdue. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 这早就该进行了。

James Atken: It starts first and foremost with critical minerals (关键矿物: 对经济和国家安全至关重要的非燃料矿物) and rare earths, and Australia has plenty of those, but it's more broader than that. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 它首先从关键矿物和稀土开始，澳大利亚拥有大量这些资源，但它的范围远不止于此。

James Atken: It expands the supply chains and I think what Jamie Diamond announced just those commendable and the extreme and I think it's a taste of what's to come. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 它扩展了供应链，我认为杰米·戴蒙德宣布的那些措施值得称赞，而且非常极端，我认为这预示着未来的趋势。

Paul Allen: Now you mentioned a moment ago a number of S&P metrics that suggested what happened was predictable. 保罗·艾伦: 你刚才提到了一些标普指数的指标，表明所发生的一切是可预测的。

Paul Allen: However, the only metric that really matters to investors is, well, we saw it again this morning, the S&P hitting a level that we haven't seen since May. 保罗·艾伦: 然而，对投资者真正重要的唯一指标是，我们今天早上又看到了，标普指数达到了自五月以来从未见过的水平。

Paul Allen: So, that rally just keeps on rolling on, but are you seeing any warning signs longer term that that could come undone? 保罗·艾伦: 所以，这次反弹仍在继续，但你是否看到了任何长期的警告信号，表明它可能会逆转？

Paul Allen: Because typically, the only thing that would stop it is a recession, but is there anything else you're watching? 保罗·艾伦: 因为通常情况下，唯一能阻止它的是经济衰退，但你还在关注其他什么吗？

James Atken: Yeah, you're right. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 是的，你说得对。

James Atken: At a headline level, happy clappy, let's muddle through, let's continue to play the game. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 从表面上看，一片欢腾，我们得过且过，继续玩这场游戏。

James Atken: Absolutely right. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 完全正确。

James Atken: And that's the that's the implied bet of the market. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 这也是市场隐含的赌注。

James Atken: But you dig beneath the surface or under the hood and you see absolute turmoil. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 但如果你深入探究表面之下，你会看到绝对的混乱。

James Atken: We've just had one of the biggest factor smashups (因子崩溃: 市场中特定风险因子（如价值、动量）表现异常或突然反转的现象) in a long, long time. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 我们刚刚经历了一场很长一段时间以来最大的因子崩溃。

James Atken: Shades of the GameStop debacle in 2021. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 这让人想起了2021年的GameStop事件。

James Atken: So on the surface it looks serene and calm and the game rumbles on, but under the surface it's been a mass massively disruptive and unsurprisingly anytime correlations rise and realize volatility rises that's very difficult for the leverage market participant. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 所以表面上看起来平静安宁，游戏继续进行，但表面之下却是大规模的颠覆性事件，而且毫不意外地，每当相关性上升和实际波动性上升时，这对杠杆市场参与者来说都非常困难。

James Atken: And regrettably, there was an awful lot of damage across an awful lot of risk-taking silos on Friday. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 遗憾的是，周五在许多承担风险的领域造成了巨大的损失。

James Atken: And again, as much as the sentiment is, let's put the party back on. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 再次，尽管市场情绪是“让我们重新开始派对”。

James Atken: Up we go again. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 我们又上涨了。

James Atken: I think risk appetite is going to be fairly subdued for a little while to come. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 我认为在未来一段时间内，风险偏好将相当低迷。

黄金、美元与另类投资的吸引力

Paul Allen: Feels like a good moment to ask you what the rally in gold prices means to you and can it continue. 保罗·艾伦: 感觉现在是问你金价上涨对你意味着什么，以及它能否持续的好时机。

James Atken: Look, I'd love to give you a really clever answer. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 听着，我很想给你一个非常聪明的答案。

James Atken: Frankly, I don't know. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 坦白说，我不知道。

James Atken: All I can see is walking down Martin Place, people queuing up outside the gold bullion shop. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 我只看到在马丁广场上，人们在金条店外排队。

James Atken: Now, I don't know if they're buyers or sellers, but there's clearly something going on. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 我不知道他们是买家还是卖家，但显然有什么事情正在发生。

James Atken: Look, I'm watching it with interest. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 我正饶有兴趣地观察着。

James Atken: I'm watching it in the context of a broader rally in commodities. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 我在更广泛的大宗商品上涨背景下观察它。

James Atken: Historically, if gold did something like this, Paul, you would have said, "Uh-oh, watch out. The dollar's going to go down as well." 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 历史上，如果黄金出现这样的走势，保罗，你可能会说：“哦，小心了。美元也要下跌了。”

James Atken: But so far, as we can see, the dollar is holding in. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 但到目前为止，正如我们所见，美元保持坚挺。

James Atken: So, I view gold as a special situation. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 所以，我将黄金视为一种特殊情况。

James Atken: It's interesting in the recent past that implied volatility on gold has started to shoot up as well, which hasn't happened for a while, maybe suggesting this gold rally is a little bit long in the tooth. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 有趣的是，最近黄金的隐含波动率也开始飙升，这已经有一段时间没有发生了，这可能表明这次黄金上涨行情有点后劲不足。

James Atken: But look to state the obvious, it's very difficult to sell. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 但显而易见的是，它很难被抛售。

Paul Allen: Well, of course, gold gold price in US dollars as well and we've seen the US dollar gaining the Bloomberg dollar spot index (彭博美元即期指数: 衡量美元兑一篮子主要货币表现的指数) about 1 and a half percent give or take on month. 保罗·艾伦: 当然，黄金价格也以美元计价，我们看到美元走强，彭博美元即期指数本月上涨了大约1.5%左右。

Paul Allen: Considering the trade tension, the rolling government shutdown, Fed easing, ballooning US debt, AI bubble risk, what's driving dollar strength right now? 保罗·艾伦: 考虑到贸易紧张、政府持续关门、美联储宽松政策、不断膨胀的美国债务、AI泡沫风险，目前是什么在推动美元走强？

Paul Allen: And can it last? 保罗·艾伦: 这种强势能持续吗？

James Atken: Inertia. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 惯性。

James Atken: What's driving it is inertia. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 驱动它的是惯性。

James Atken: But there's two big decisions that global savers, global investors have had to make in 2025 and probably 26 and beyond. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 但全球储户、全球投资者在2025年以及可能2026年及以后必须做出两个重大决定。

James Atken: It's like a what do I do with my underlying US dollar asset exposure, private credit (私募信贷: 由非银行机构直接向企业提供的贷款), equities, and so forth, and b what do I do about the dollar? 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 这就像是，a，我该如何处理我的基础美元资产敞口，包括私募信贷、股票等；b，我该如何处理美元？

James Atken: And these large pools of capital can move money around, but no market offers the capacity that the United States does across a range of instruments. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 这些庞大的资本池可以调动资金，但没有任何市场能在各种金融工具上提供像美国这样的容量。

James Atken: And you remember 10 years ago the world made a very smart bet. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 你还记得十年前，全世界做了一个非常明智的赌注。

James Atken: Collectively the world went overweight unhedged US assets (无对冲美元资产: 投资者持有美元计价资产但未进行汇率风险对冲的头寸) and equities in particular. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 整个世界集体增持了无对冲美元资产，尤其是股票。

James Atken: It worked really, really well, which means the bar to changing that allocation is very high. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 效果非常好，这意味着改变这种配置的门槛非常高。

James Atken: There was a big test of that in February, March and April as we all recall. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 正如我们都记得的，在二月、三月和四月，这受到了巨大的考验。

James Atken: But again those cumulative gains are so large that there's this inertia that drives strategic asset allocation around the world. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 但再次强调，那些累积收益是如此之大，以至于存在一种惯性，驱动着全球的战略资产配置。

James Atken: So are people nervous, apprehensive? 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 那么人们是否紧张、担忧呢？

James Atken: Absolutely. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 绝对是。

James Atken: Are there some conversations around town about how should we think about dollar hedging and everything else? 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 城里有没有关于我们应该如何考虑美元对冲和其他一切的讨论？

James Atken: Absolutely. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 绝对有。

James Atken: But by and large so good has been the performance of the underlying asset exposure that people have decided that they take the option of waiting and seeing and that I think explains a large part of the dollar resilience. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 但总的来说，基础资产敞口的表现一直很好，以至于人们决定采取观望态度，我认为这解释了美元韧性的大部分原因。

James Atken: So the fast money ducks and weaves through foreign exchange markets. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 所以快钱在外汇市场中穿梭。

James Atken: The really big money is just sitting back and watching and enjoying their enormous cumulative rolled up gains. 詹姆斯·艾特肯: 真正的大资金只是坐享其成，享受他们巨大的累积收益。

Bloomberg: That's James Aken of Aken Advisor speaking with Bloomberg's Paul Allen. Bloomberg: 刚才那是Aken Advisor的詹姆斯·艾特肯与彭博社的保罗·艾伦的对话。

Bloomberg: In the States, the equity market advanced thanks to a rally among chip stocks. Bloomberg: 在美国，股市因芯片股上涨而走高。

Bloomberg: Coming up, we'll look at the market with Matthew Tuttle of Tuttle Capital Management here on the Daybreak Asia podcast. Bloomberg: 接下来，我们将在亚洲破晓播客中与Tuttle Capital Management的马修·塔特尔一起展望市场。

AI泡沫与芯片股狂热

Doug Krner: Welcome back to the Daybreak Asia podcast. 道格·克雷纳: 欢迎回到亚洲破晓播客。

Doug Krner: I'm Doug Krer. 道格·克雷纳: 我是道格·克雷纳。

Doug Krner: Semiconductor stocks grabbed the spotlight in the US session. 道格·克雷纳: 半导体股票在美国交易时段备受关注。

Doug Krner: That was after OpenAI agreed to buy custom chips and networking equipment from Broadcom in a multi-year agreement. 道格·克雷纳: 那是在OpenAI同意与博通达成一项多年协议，购买定制芯片和网络设备之后。

Doug Krner: Shares in Broadcom rallied nearly 10%. 道格·克雷纳: 博通股价上涨近10%。

Doug Krner: Joining me now for a closer look is Matthew Tuttle. 道格·克雷纳: 现在加入我，进行更深入分析的是马修·塔特尔。

Doug Krner: He is the CEO, also CIO at Tuttle Capital Management. 道格·克雷纳: 他是Tuttle Capital Management的首席执行官兼首席投资官。

Doug Krner: Matthew is on the line from Greenwich, Connecticut. 道格·克雷纳: 马修正在康涅狄格州格林威治连线。

Doug Krner: Thanks for making time to chat with me. 道格·克雷纳: 感谢您抽出时间与我交谈。

Doug Krner: I'd like to begin by asking you in relation to this OpenAI Broadcom deal whether it feels a little like late cycle to you. 道格·克雷纳: 我想首先问您，关于OpenAI与博通的这笔交易，您是否觉得这有点像是周期末期了？

Matthew Tuttle: It does. 马修·塔特尔: 确实有这种感觉。

Matthew Tuttle: I mean, I definitely think that you want to be in these AI stocks. 马修·塔特尔: 我的意思是，我绝对认为你应该持有这些AI股票。

Matthew Tuttle: I do think we're late in the cycle, but that doesn't mean that there still aren't a lot more gains to come. 马修·塔特尔: 我确实认为我们处于周期的后期，但这并不意味着未来不会有更多的收益。

Matthew Tuttle: I think you've just got to be you've got to be careful with it. 马修·塔特尔: 我认为你只需要小心谨慎。

Matthew Tuttle: You've got to be cognizant of the fact that we are probably in a bubble. 马修·塔特尔: 你必须意识到我们可能正处于一个泡沫之中。

Matthew Tuttle: At some point, the bubble's going to burst. 马修·塔特尔: 迟早有一天，泡沫会破裂。

Matthew Tuttle: But, you know, that could be a year from now, two years from now, three years from now. 马修·塔特尔: 但是，你知道，那可能是一年、两年或三年之后的事情。

Matthew Tuttle: So, until then, we tell people trade based on what you see. 马修·塔特尔: 所以，在此之前，我们告诉人们根据你所看到的进行交易。

Matthew Tuttle: And what you see is these AI stocks go up and you want to be buying the dips like Friday. 马修·塔特尔: 而你所看到的是这些AI股票上涨，你会在像周五那样的下跌时买入。

Doug Krner: So in terms of what we're going to be hearing from these companies, the hyperscalers (超大规模云服务商: 提供大规模云计算基础设施和服务的公司，如亚马逊AWS、微软Azure、谷歌云), everybody in that space that begins reporting third quarter numbers, is it really the capex figure (资本支出数据: 企业用于购买、维护或升级固定资产的资金) that's most important to you? 道格·克雷纳: 那么，就我们即将从这些公司，包括超大规模云服务商以及该领域所有开始报告第三季度数据的公司那里听到的消息而言，对您来说，最重要的真的是资本支出数据吗？

Matthew Tuttle: That is going to be huge. 马修·塔特尔: 那将非常重要。

Matthew Tuttle: As long as that spending spigot continues to be wide open, then we think you've got to be buying this market. 马修·塔特尔: 只要那个支出水龙头继续大开，那么我们认为你就必须买入这个市场。

Matthew Tuttle: You know, the second that people have kind of that where's the beef moment where they're wondering, wait, you know, how are we going to make money off of all of this spending? 马修·塔特尔: 你知道，一旦人们开始质疑“钱去哪儿了”，他们会想，等等，我们如何从所有这些支出中赚钱？

Matthew Tuttle: That's when this starts to unravel. 马修·塔特尔: 那时市场就会开始瓦解。

Matthew Tuttle: And you know, you just got to be hyper vigilant on all these earnings and what the CEOs are saying and watch for signs of that. 马修·塔特尔: 你知道，你必须对所有这些财报以及首席执行官们所说的话保持高度警惕，并留意其迹象。

银行财报、美联储政策与滞胀风险

Doug Krner: Let's turn our attention to the other earnings that we're going to be getting. 道格·克雷纳: 让我们把注意力转向我们即将收到的其他财报。

Doug Krner: Tomorrow we'll hear from some of the big banks including JP Morgan. 道格·克雷纳: 明天我们将听到包括摩根大通在内的一些大型银行的财报。

Doug Krner: The stock was up today by more than 2%. 道格·克雷纳: 今天该股票上涨超过2%。

Doug Krner: A lot of focus here on trading revenue, on fees from investment banking. 道格·克雷纳: 这里的焦点主要集中在交易收入和投资银行的费用上。

Doug Krner: Broadly speaking, will the big banks deliver pretty strong quarterly results? 道格·克雷纳: 广义上讲，大型银行会交出相当强劲的季度业绩吗？

Matthew Tuttle: You know, I think they'll deliver decent results. 马修·塔特尔: 你知道，我认为他们会交出不错的业绩。

Matthew Tuttle: I'm not a big fan of the banks. 马修·塔特尔: 我不是银行股的忠实粉丝。

Matthew Tuttle: You know, I think this market has become completely thematic and I really think you want to stick with a lot of these top themes. 马修·塔特尔: 你知道，我认为这个市场已经完全主题化了，我真的觉得你应该坚持很多这些顶级主题。

Matthew Tuttle: You know, we did see, you know, Friday, yeah, big sell-off, but coming into Friday, you saw a lot of sectors that had really kind of turned and were looking wobbly even before that. 马修·塔特尔: 你知道，我们确实看到了，周五，是的，大幅抛售，但在周五之前，你已经看到很多板块已经出现转折，甚至在那之前就显得摇摇欲坠。

Matthew Tuttle: So, I I would personally just focus on on on these bigger themes, but I mean, I think the banks are going to be okay. 马修·塔特尔: 所以，我个人只会关注这些更大的主题，但我的意思是，我认为银行会没事的。

Matthew Tuttle: It's just it's not an area that's of interest to us. 马修·塔特尔: 只是它不是我们感兴趣的领域。

Matthew Tuttle: In terms of themes that would impact the banks, I would imagine Fed rate cuts are a part of that story. 马修·塔特尔: 就可能影响银行的主题而言，我想美联储降息是其中一部分。

Matthew Tuttle: Anna Pollson today, the head of the Philly Fed, was essentially indicating two more quarter point rate cuts are called for this year. 马修·塔特尔: 费城联储主席安娜·波尔森今天基本上暗示，今年还需要再进行两次25个基点的降息。

Matthew Tuttle: She's very much focused on the risk to the labor market. 马修·塔特尔: 她非常关注劳动力市场面临的风险。

Matthew Tuttle: Is the Fed at risk of maybe ignoring the inflationary pressures that still are above target and they seem to be persistent? 马修·塔特尔: 美联储是否有可能忽视那些仍高于目标且似乎持续存在的通胀压力？

Matthew Tuttle: Yeah, I mean, you know, the the Fed I in my opinion has gotten a lot wrong over the past couple of years and, you know, and they do run the risk of, you know, kind of miss missing inflation like they did the last time. 马修·塔特尔: 是的，我的意思是，你知道，在我看来，美联储在过去几年里犯了很多错误，而且，你知道，他们确实存在再次忽视通胀的风险，就像他们上次那样。

Matthew Tuttle: You know, right now all the market cares about is running it hot and, you know, so AI capex (人工智能资本支出: 用于人工智能相关基础设施、设备和技术投资的资本开支) to me is number one. 马修·塔特尔: 你知道，现在市场唯一关心的是让经济过热，所以对我来说，人工智能资本支出是第一位的。

Matthew Tuttle: Fed continuing to cut rates and and run it hot short term is number two. 马修·塔特尔: 美联储继续降息并在短期内推高经济是第二位的。

Matthew Tuttle: If you know again another risk to this market is if we end up in some sort of stagflation (滞胀: 经济停滞与通货膨胀同时存在的现象) environment that's not going to be good. 马修·塔特尔: 如果，你知道，这个市场的另一个风险是，如果我们最终陷入某种滞胀环境，那将不会是好事。

Doug Krner: So late in the day Monday New York time, we had the price of silver jumping to an all-time high of 5250 an ounce. 道格·克雷纳: 所以在纽约时间周一晚些时候，白银价格飙升至每盎司5250美元的历史新高。

Doug Krner: When you look at the price action in not only silver but gold, what do you come away with? 道格·克雷纳: 当你看到不仅是白银还有黄金的价格走势时，你有什么看法？

Doug Krner: What's your take on this? 道格·克雷纳: 你对此有何见解？

Matthew Tuttle: It's it's the debasement trade. 马修·塔特尔: 这是贬值交易。

Matthew Tuttle: You know, it's it's people moving out of fiat currency (法定货币: 没有内在价值，由政府法令作为法定支付手段的货币，如美元、人民币) and it's, you know, it's related to crypto. 马修·塔特尔: 你知道，这是人们从法定货币中撤出，而且，你知道，这与加密货币有关。

Matthew Tuttle: You know, crypto's got its own little unique things to it. 马修·塔特尔: 你知道，加密货币有其独特之处。

Matthew Tuttle: And you saw kind of that sell off Friday and and a little bit over the weekend. 马修·塔特尔: 你看到了周五和周末的一些抛售。

Matthew Tuttle: But it's really at the end of the day, it's the same trade. 马修·塔特尔: 但归根结底，这其实是同一种交易。

Matthew Tuttle: It's people, you know, losing faith in the central banks, all of the debt, and getting out of fiat currency into, you know, the alternative currencies. 马修·塔特尔: 是人们，你知道，对中央银行失去信心，对所有债务失去信心，并从法定货币转向替代货币。

贸易故事与投资策略

Doug Krner: One of the things that we need to talk about, the trade relationship between the US and China over the last couple of trading days, things were on the hot side rhetorically. 道格·克雷纳: 我们需要讨论的一件事是过去几个交易日中美贸易关系，言辞上非常激烈。

Doug Krner: Mike Wilson from Morgan Stanley, he's the chief US equity strategist, was saying that there could be a larger than expected correction in US equities if presidents Trump and she failed to resolve their escalating trade tensions. 道格·克雷纳: 摩根士丹利的首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊表示，如果特朗普总统和习近平未能解决不断升级的贸易紧张局势，美国股市可能会出现比预期更大的回调。

Doug Krner: Do you agree with that? 道格·克雷纳: 你同意这个观点吗？

Doug Krner: Is the trade story being largely ignored by the market right now? 道格·克雷纳: 贸易问题目前是否在很大程度上被市场忽视了？

Matthew Tuttle: So to me, the trade story is kind of a sideline, you know, could there be a correction? 马修·塔特尔: 所以对我来说，贸易问题有点像是次要的，你知道，可能会有回调吗？

Matthew Tuttle: There could, but to me that that becomes a buying opportunity as long as AI capex spending is churning along and as long as the Fed is accommodative (宽松的美联储: 指美联储采取降低利率或增加货币供应等措施以刺激经济增长的政策立场). 马修·塔特尔: 可能有，但对我来说，只要人工智能资本支出持续增长，并且只要美联储采取宽松政策，那就会成为一个买入机会。

Matthew Tuttle: You know, I think Trump has shown you this playbook and you know we believe in TACO. 马修·塔特尔: 你知道，我认为特朗普已经向你展示了这个策略，而且我们相信TACO。

Matthew Tuttle: You know Trump always chickens out until proven otherwise. 马修·塔特尔: 你知道，除非另有证明，否则特朗普总是临阵退缩。

Doug Krner: Where are you finding value in US equities right now? 道格·克雷纳: 目前你在美国股票市场中发现价值在哪里？

Matthew Tuttle: Value is a tough one. 马修·塔特尔: 价值很难找。

Matthew Tuttle: Not a lot of places, you know, you really when you're buying these themes and I'm really I'm I'm a fan of all the AI infrastructure (人工智能基础设施: 支持人工智能技术运行和发展的硬件、软件和网络系统). 马修·塔特尔: 地方不多，你知道，当你真的在买这些主题时，我真的很喜欢所有的人工智能基础设施。

Matthew Tuttle: I'm a fan of space. 马修·塔特尔: 我是太空领域的粉丝。

Matthew Tuttle: I'm a fan of drones. 马修·塔特尔: 我是无人机的粉丝。

Matthew Tuttle: I'm a fan of anything kind of rare earth and then, you know, I love gold and I love crypto. 马修·塔特尔: 我喜欢任何稀土相关的东西，然后，你知道，我热爱黄金和加密货币。

Matthew Tuttle: But value, I mean, you've really got to hold your nose and say, look for right now and eventually valuations matter. 马修·塔特尔: 但价值，我的意思是，你真的必须捏着鼻子说，就目前而言，估值最终是重要的。

Matthew Tuttle: But for right now, you know, in this market, you know, valuations don't matter a lot. 马修·塔特尔: 但就目前而言，你知道，在这个市场中，估值并不是很重要。

Doug Krner: I'm thinking about the power that's required to drive this data center compute. 道格·克雷纳: 我在思考驱动数据中心计算所需的电力。

Doug Krner: Maybe away from the utility companies and the power producers. 道格·克雷纳: 也许可以避开公用事业公司和电力生产商。

Doug Krner: Think about the companies that actually produce the turbines that create the electricity. 道格·克雷纳: 考虑一下那些实际生产用于发电的涡轮机的公司。

Doug Krner: Is that is that an attractive trade to you? 道格·克雷纳: 这对你来说是一个有吸引力的交易吗？

Matthew Tuttle: That's an attractive trade to us. 马修·塔特尔: 这对我们来说是一个有吸引力的交易。

Matthew Tuttle: You know, the GE Vernovas (通用电气维诺瓦: 通用电气旗下的能源业务部门，专注于电力和可再生能源技术). 马修·塔特尔: 你知道，通用电气维诺瓦。

Matthew Tuttle: You know, it's it's really all of, you know, the cooling, natural gas, there there's just so much to this AI trade. 马修·塔特尔: 你知道，它实际上涵盖了所有，比如冷却、天然气，这个AI交易包含的内容实在太多了。

Matthew Tuttle: Then you can even take it to the third order. 马修·塔特尔: 你甚至可以把它推到第三层。

Matthew Tuttle: Who's going to build the data centers? 马修·塔特尔: 谁来建造数据中心？

Matthew Tuttle: Who's going to provide those materials? 马修·塔特尔: 谁来提供这些材料？

Matthew Tuttle: You there's just so much in there. 马修·塔特尔: 这里面有太多东西了。

Matthew Tuttle: Again, which is why something like banks when I've got such a target-rich environment, I I'm just not interested in the banks. 马修·塔特尔: 再次强调，这就是为什么在这样一个目标丰富的环境中，我对银行之类的东西根本不感兴趣。

Doug Krner: Okay, fair enough. 道格·克雷纳: 好的，很公平。

Doug Krner: But if you had to look at a tech industry away from artificial intelligence, something away from let's call it a pure play on semiconductors (纯半导体公司: 主营业务完全专注于半导体设计、制造或销售的公司), something we don't often discuss such as robotics. 道格·克雷纳: 但如果你必须关注一个与人工智能无关的科技行业，一个不是所谓的纯半导体公司的领域，一个我们不常讨论的领域，比如机器人技术。

Doug Krner: I'm wondering whether robotics is an area that interests you at all. 道格·克雷纳: 我想知道机器人技术是否是您感兴趣的领域。

Matthew Tuttle: Robotics is huge. 马修·塔特尔: 机器人技术非常重要。

Matthew Tuttle: My number one that people don't talk about is space. 马修·塔特尔: 我认为人们不谈论的第一大领域是太空。

Matthew Tuttle: And, you know, and that that's that's a ways out, but there is so, you know, for example, there are things that you manufacture on earth that gravity messes up that can be done in space. 马修·塔特尔: 而且，你知道，那还需要一段时间，但有很多，例如，有些东西你在地球上制造会受到重力干扰，但在太空中就可以完成。

Matthew Tuttle: I think eventually we're going to have a whole infrastructure which is going to require defending it, transporting things back and forth, building these, you know, satellites or whatever we have up there. 马修·塔特尔: 我认为最终我们将拥有一个完整的太空基础设施，这将需要防御、往返运输物品、建造这些卫星或我们在太空中拥有的任何东西。

Matthew Tuttle: That's really interesting to me. 马修·塔特尔: 那对我来说真的很有趣。

Matthew Tuttle: That would be my number one kind of out there that you're not talking about. 马修·塔特尔: 那将是我认为你没有谈到的第一大领域。

Matthew Tuttle: Robotics would be number two. 马修·塔特尔: 机器人技术将是第二位。

Doug Krner: We'll leave it there. 道格·克雷纳: 我们就到此为止。

Doug Krner: Thank you so much. 道格·克雷纳: 非常感谢。

Doug Krner: Matthew Tuttle is the CEO, also the CIO at Tuttle Capital Management, on the line from Greenwich, Connecticut here on the Daybreak Asia podcast. 道格·克雷纳: 马修·塔特尔是Tuttle Capital Management的首席执行官兼首席投资官，他在康涅狄格州格林威治连线，参加亚洲破晓播客。

Doug Krner: Thanks for listening to today's episode of the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Edition podcast. 道格·克雷纳: 感谢收听今天的彭博亚洲破晓版播客。

Doug Krner: Each weekday, we look at the story shaping markets, finance, and geopolitics in the Asia-Pacific. 道格·克雷纳: 每个工作日，我们都会关注塑造亚太地区市场、金融和地缘政治的故事。

Doug Krner: You can find us on Apple, Spotify, the Bloomberg Podcast YouTube channel, or anywhere else you listen. 道格·克雷纳: 您可以在Apple、Spotify、彭博播客YouTube频道或任何您收听播客的地方找到我们。

Doug Krner: Join us again tomorrow for insight on the market moves from Hong Kong to Singapore and Australia. 道格·克雷纳: 明天请再次加入我们，了解从香港到新加坡再到澳大利亚的市场动态洞察。

Doug Krner: I'm Doug Krer and this is Bloomberg. 道格·克雷纳: 我是道格·克雷纳，这里是彭博社。